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SQ22
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COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:47 pm

Welcome to COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020. Please continue your discussion and to add your comments below.

Link to last thread:

COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020
 
Chemist
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:34 am

Not such a surprise, but the highly competent US Leadership has tested positive for the virus. In fact, it appears they may have been superspreaders.
 
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SQ22
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:53 pm

Please remember to provide a link to a source when stating facts. Thanks.
 
Newark727
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:50 pm

Leaving aside the more political conclusions for now, the COVID-19 situation at the White House suggests that, even after all this time, and all the hassle we've collectively put ourselves through, we still can't get cocky.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:04 pm

It is highly concerning that world wide we are still at Peak levels of infection with +-300,000 getting infected every day.
In the US we are still hovering around +- 40,000 infections a day, and have not come off this point for about 4 weeks.
The decline is over from the summer surge, and it remains to be seen if we are entering a new spike.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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mad99
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:13 pm

Here in Madrid we’re having new restrictions from 22:00 tonight. Things are getting worse ☹
 
Vladex
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:48 pm

Is it ok to be covid 19 skeptic or is that for later when it doesn't count?
 
lowwkjax
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:20 am

Austria today has the second highest number of new daily infections since the beginning of the pandemic, hospital numbers however have gone up as well, however, compared to the peak in March and April we today have almost as many “currently infected” people as then, but less than 50% of the hospital numbers from March/April and 100 people in ICU. If you look it from a different perspective though, the number of daily new infections today is around 20-40 times higher than in the summer, the hospital numbers today are 5-7 times higher and ICU numbers have grown by around 2-3 times - all compared to the summer during which we thought it’s almost over with two digit numbers of daily new infections.

https://orf.at/corona/stories/daten/

While it seems that it definitely is less deadly and less harmful than during the first wave, you can also see that it most definitely has the potential to fill up the hospitals pretty quickly if it gets completely out of control.

Seeing as this is happening in many places, not just Austria, I think it really is about time to speed up the process of approving vaccines and medications as we simply aren’t able to control this virus and delaying the vaccines because they could cause someone to suffer from fever and headache for a few days just doesn’t compare to the hundreds and thousands of deaths we will see if this thing keeps spreading the way it does at this time and it also doesn’t compare to the further damage we would cause to the world’s economy if we shut things back down. Heck even one of the world’s leading nations, the US, hasn’t been able to protect it’s highest person (the president) from getting infected, this just shows how little we can actually do to prevent infections, the only way out of this is the vaccine and medication.

And for those who keep screaming how unethical it would be to risk having a few deaths from side effects of a vaccine - yeah, it’s way more ethical to accept thousands of deaths from the virus which we could have prevented...
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:04 pm

Michigan Supreme Court ruled all executive orders issued by the Governor after April 30, 2020 are unconstitutional. Executive branch overreach over legislative powers...

Still seeing close to 900 new cases a day. This is before expected fall surge.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 863340002/
All posts are just opinions.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:58 pm

11 days now in my state with no new local cases, with a single case in the last 15 days that was only technically included. We're still doing symptomatic testing although this is likely to fall to around 100k tests this week.Discussion over the weekend was around getting people back to work in offices to support "downtown" businesses.

Even our worst impacted state is below 10 new cases a day for the last week, and down under 300 active cases statewide (6.7 million pop)

Hopefully most internal borders in Australia will be open by Christmas, and we'll be on our way to a trans-tasman bubble
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94717
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:54 am

Russia just doubled its number of dead from more then 21000 to 45500.



https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/ ... ncy-a71651
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:13 am

The WHO estimates that 1 in 10 people around the World has contracted Covid-19 by now.

This is huge, as it confirms the extreme contagion and prevalence of the virus around the World, but also reduces its mortality rate dramatically. Even assuming twice the reported deaths, that would give less than 0.5% overall mortality, although this figures varies greatly depending on age.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcev ... da67b24430
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
brissypete
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:01 am

Francoflier wrote:
The WHO estimates that 1 in 10 people around the World has contracted Covid-19 by now.

This is huge, as it confirms the extreme contagion and prevalence of the virus around the World, but also reduces its mortality rate dramatically. Even assuming twice the reported deaths, that would give less than 0.5% overall mortality, although this figures varies greatly depending on age.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcev ... da67b24430
Maybe it just not as bad overall as many media and politicians would have us believe.

Sent from my G8141 using Tapatalk
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:37 am

So it looks like Europe is really having a tough time of it with many EU countries now approaching US levels of infection. It'll be interesting to see how things proceed. Fortunately however deaths have been greatly subdued compared to the initial outbreak.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:43 pm

New research: Anti-ulcer drug shows promise in suppressing coronavirus

Researchers from Hong Kong have reported a novel antiviral strategy for treatment of Covid-19. They have found that a class of existing drugs, which are currently used in the treatment of other infectious diseases, can suppress replication of SARS-CoV-2 and relieve Covid-19 symptoms in an animal model.

Their findings are published in Nature Microbiology.

Generally, metal compounds are used as anti-microbial agents, but their antiviral activities have rarely been explored, the researchers said.

https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... s-6758360/
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:52 pm

Vladex wrote:
Is it ok to be covid 19 skeptic or is that for later when it doesn't count?


Can barely make sense of this. Exactly what are you skeptical of?
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:08 pm

Fourteen states reported their peak Covid-19 hospitalizations in the last week: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wisconsin, according to the Covid Tracking Project.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/health/u ... index.html

The fall peak is arriving. right in time for the US election. Interesting correlation for most of these states (except Virginia, although if you know Virginia well, it still makes sense).
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
T4thH
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:30 pm

A video regarding the long term Covid-19 syndrome patients, so patients who do not recover as regular in two to six weeks after end of the infection. This long term Covid-19 syndrome seems to be independent of the severity of the infection, so cases even without acute symptoms can get it. There are thousands already in treatment (and many more still untreated) in Germany alone
(I have even heard from physicians, they are estimating, that on one patient who dies, there will be one patient IN WORKING AGE, who will never recover enough to work again, this is now the working hypothesis. This is something, we will finally know in some years).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2Uo7qUoSDQ
 
94717
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:29 pm

Second wave has hit Europe;

Quit interesting is that number of dead in Sweden the very worse example is one of the lowest in Europe and the world so far.

Will this last and what is handled better now compared a few month ago?

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?ar ... ues=deaths
 
mxp
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:35 pm

In Milan we are in lockdown from 23 to 5 am from this evening till 15 November. Numbers here are going up and up
 
cpd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:55 pm

T4thH wrote:
A video regarding the long term Covid-19 syndrome patients, so patients who do not recover as regular in two to six weeks after end of the infection. This long term Covid-19 syndrome seems to be independent of the severity of the infection, so cases even without acute symptoms can get it. There are thousands already in treatment (and many more still untreated) in Germany alone
(I have even heard from physicians, they are estimating, that on one patient who dies, there will be one patient IN WORKING AGE, who will never recover enough to work again, this is now the working hypothesis. This is something, we will finally know in some years).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2Uo7qUoSDQ


There are some people who develop complications from this virus who will never recover. The Northern Sydney doctor who was a competitive cyclist who ended up with scarring in the heart and epileptic seizures is one example. He cannot ride a bike any more and isn't allowed to drive a car. He wasn't that much older than me I think.

In Sydney where I am we don't have any particularly strict lockdowns but among a lot of people I know, we are all very cautious when we go out - and we are only going out for essential things like groceries, etc or for exercise - but being cautious not to be in big groups.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:45 pm

The US set a new record for number of Covid Cases yesterday.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -yesterday

81,210

The trend shows no sign of abatement.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/he ... and-cases/

We may be looking at +100,000 new cases by voting day, with the trailing death rates starting.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:24 am

casinterest wrote:
The US set a new record for number of Covid Cases yesterday.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -yesterday

81,210

The trend shows no sign of abatement.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/he ... and-cases/

We may be looking at +100,000 new cases by voting day, with the trailing death rates starting.


It's difficult to sit on somewhat helplessly on the other side of the world. Even MA, where my US family live, is back up over 1,000 new cases a day.

In Australia there were 9 new locally aquired cases yesetrday, all in the city iof Melbourne, with 7 of these linked to known clusters. New South Wales (Sydney is the capital city) had 7 new cases, all in hotel quarantine. New Zealand (a separate country of course, but nearer to Sydney than Perth, Western Australia) had a single new case, also a person in hotel quarantine. WA had 6 new cases, all in hotel quarantine.

Victoria is the only state with lockdown restrictions, which should eas this week if cases with unknown sources remain low.

Hopefully by the end of the year we'll have a COVID-19 free bubble of 30 million people, and then be able to start the difficult path of reopening to the world.

Practice good hygiene and social distancing, and mask up if you can't distance. Stay safe everyone!
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:47 am

Some good news. Both the AstraZenica and Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate Phase III clinical trials (both of which are adenovirus-vectored products) had been paused in the US. AZ's had been paused for seven weeks and J&J's for over a week after patients in the study groups became ill.

It has become determined that those illnesses were not related to the vaccine candidates. Both are cleared to resume their trials.

In more somber news, a 28yo man in the AZ trial in Brazil passed away of complications of COVID-19. However, he had been administered the placebo.
-Doc Lightning-

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ArcticSEA
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:05 pm

PNW-based private pilot and engineer. #fatpnw
 
94717
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:09 am

ArcticSEA wrote:


Its seems to follow the expected time schedules presented;

Weak groups getting vaccine Q1 Q2 2021 and starting Q3 2022 the rest of us... Perhaps it will mean that the 3rd wave can be less terrible.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:48 pm

Looks like we will be getting annual vaccines.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... 1590c8bb08


"We observe a significant decline in the proportion of the population with detectable antibodies over three rounds of national surveillance, using a self-administered lateral flow test, 12, 18 and 24 weeks after the first peak of infections in England," the team wrote in a pre-print version of their report, released before peer review.
"This is consistent with evidence that immunity to seasonal coronaviruses declines over 6 to 12 months after infection and emerging data on SARS-CoV-2 that also detected a decrease over time in antibody levels in individuals followed in longitudinal studies."
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:24 pm

Go get that sunshine or Vitamin D pill. This winter could get bad.

https://scitechdaily.com/over-80-of-hos ... udy-finds/

The researchers found 80 percent of 216 COVID-19 patients at the Hospital Universitario Marqués de Valdecilla had vitamin D deficiency, and men had lower vitamin D levels than women. COVID-19 patients with lower vitamin D levels also had raised serum levels of inflammatory markers such as ferritin and D-dimer.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:56 pm

casinterest wrote:
Looks like we will be getting annual vaccines.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... 1590c8bb08


"We observe a significant decline in the proportion of the population with detectable antibodies over three rounds of national surveillance, using a self-administered lateral flow test, 12, 18 and 24 weeks after the first peak of infections in England," the team wrote in a pre-print version of their report, released before peer review.
"This is consistent with evidence that immunity to seasonal coronaviruses declines over 6 to 12 months after infection and emerging data on SARS-CoV-2 that also detected a decrease over time in antibody levels in individuals followed in longitudinal studies."


I see this headline daily and it frustrates me.

No traceable antibodies to a particular pathogen does not imply no immunity. You for a short time might have sterilizing immunity (where the antibodies will neutralize the pathogen) but I bet cell mediated immunity lasts for several years if not forever.

Antibodies make of one part of the immune response and that is to inhibit proteins on the virus which makes it inert and marked for destruction. You have T-cells that identify and kill infected cells and memory B cells that remember pathogens and deploy antibodies much faster if reinfected that the symptoms are non-existent or mild. Those seasonal coronaviruses were probably just as bad as covid19 when first introduced to humans but cell mediated immunity makes them very mild now.

You can be reinfected again but are you getting very sick, that is enough if covid19 only causes a cold in the future which I predict it will. Furthermore if you think about this rationally it would be really inefficient to maintain a library of antibodies for every infection you have had, it makes more evolutionary sense to have a memory to react faster when the pathogen is encountered again.

The only reason for additional vaccines is if there is very rapid mutation of Covid19 like the flu or that we get one out for the most dangerous strain and perhaps other ones to get the rest over time.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:07 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Looks like we will be getting annual vaccines.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... 1590c8bb08


"We observe a significant decline in the proportion of the population with detectable antibodies over three rounds of national surveillance, using a self-administered lateral flow test, 12, 18 and 24 weeks after the first peak of infections in England," the team wrote in a pre-print version of their report, released before peer review.
"This is consistent with evidence that immunity to seasonal coronaviruses declines over 6 to 12 months after infection and emerging data on SARS-CoV-2 that also detected a decrease over time in antibody levels in individuals followed in longitudinal studies."


I see this headline daily and it frustrates me.

No traceable antibodies to a particular pathogen does not imply no immunity. You for a short time might have sterilizing immunity (where the antibodies will neutralize the pathogen) but I bet cell mediated immunity lasts for several years if not forever.

Antibodies make of one part of the immune response and that is to inhibit proteins on the virus which makes it inert and marked for destruction. You have T-cells that identify and kill infected cells and memory B cells that remember pathogens and deploy antibodies much faster if reinfected that the symptoms are non-existent or mild. Those seasonal coronaviruses were probably just as bad as covid19 when first introduced to humans but cell mediated immunity makes them very mild now.

You can be reinfected again but are you getting very sick, that is enough if covid19 only causes a cold in the future which I predict it will. Furthermore if you think about this rationally it would be really inefficient to maintain a library of antibodies for every infection you have had, it makes more evolutionary sense to have a memory to react faster when the pathogen is encountered again.

The only reason for additional vaccines is if there is very rapid mutation of Covid19 like the flu or that we get one out for the most dangerous strain and perhaps other ones to get the rest over time.



True,
But I am worried about the mutation. This is a coronavirus after all. They do tend to mutate.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:31 pm

New Zealand and now Australia may have elimiinated local transmission of COVID-19 and will be looking towards vaccination as a pathway to opening international borders. Both countries are continuing with active symptomatic testing, tracing and islolating. There is still a risk that infection may escape from hotel quarantine as caused the outbreak in Victoria.

I see almost zero likelihood of a willingness in our countries to allow natural infection, even if it is shown to offer long term immunity.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/Q100/200/E195/733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/320/321/332/333/345/359
 
extender
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:46 am

COVID has been losing its lethality. There is a spike in cases again, but it is more than a cold than the monster that appeared at the beginning of the year.

https://www.salon.com/2020/10/24/covid- ... ses-spike/
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:33 am

extender wrote:
COVID has been losing its lethality. There is a spike in cases again, but it is more than a cold than the monster that appeared at the beginning of the year.

https://www.salon.com/2020/10/24/covid- ... ses-spike/


your source doesn´t support that claim.

Salon wrote:
To be clear, the death rate is "still higher than many infectious diseases, including the flu,"


And a flu is many times more lethal than a cold.....

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Okie
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:14 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Some good news. Both the AstraZenica and Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate Phase III clinical trials (both of which are adenovirus-vectored products) had been paused in the US. AZ's had been paused for seven weeks and J&J's for over a week after patients in the study groups became ill.

It has become determined that those illnesses were not related to the vaccine candidates. Both are cleared to resume their trials.

In more somber news, a 28yo man in the AZ trial in Brazil passed away of complications of COVID-19. However, he had been administered the placebo.


Thanks Doc, unfortunate about the placebo case but from an article I read one of the reasons for delays were that they were waiting for enough of the placebo recipients to test positive in order to have a valid test.

Okie
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:24 pm

COVID19 less lethal ? Yeah right, more than 500 deaths yesterday in France. The only good thing is that we know more about it and how to manage it, otherwise it would be catastrophic already.

Tonight president Macron will announce that the current curfew is not enough and France will go back into some form of lockdown : https://www.france24.com/en/france/2020 ... -clampdown
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:25 pm

casinterest wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Looks like we will be getting annual vaccines.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... 1590c8bb08




I see this headline daily and it frustrates me.

No traceable antibodies to a particular pathogen does not imply no immunity. You for a short time might have sterilizing immunity (where the antibodies will neutralize the pathogen) but I bet cell mediated immunity lasts for several years if not forever.

Antibodies make of one part of the immune response and that is to inhibit proteins on the virus which makes it inert and marked for destruction. You have T-cells that identify and kill infected cells and memory B cells that remember pathogens and deploy antibodies much faster if reinfected that the symptoms are non-existent or mild. Those seasonal coronaviruses were probably just as bad as covid19 when first introduced to humans but cell mediated immunity makes them very mild now.

You can be reinfected again but are you getting very sick, that is enough if covid19 only causes a cold in the future which I predict it will. Furthermore if you think about this rationally it would be really inefficient to maintain a library of antibodies for every infection you have had, it makes more evolutionary sense to have a memory to react faster when the pathogen is encountered again.

The only reason for additional vaccines is if there is very rapid mutation of Covid19 like the flu or that we get one out for the most dangerous strain and perhaps other ones to get the rest over time.



True,
But I am worried about the mutation. This is a coronavirus after all. They do tend to mutate.


All viruses mutate.

This one appears to mutate quite slowly that the spike protein and the protein coat which is what the immune system recognizes are actually pretty consistent. This is what the vaccines by AstraZenica and Johnson and Johnson are training the immune system to recognize, the spike protein.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:26 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:

I see this headline daily and it frustrates me.

No traceable antibodies to a particular pathogen does not imply no immunity. You for a short time might have sterilizing immunity (where the antibodies will neutralize the pathogen) but I bet cell mediated immunity lasts for several years if not forever.

Antibodies make of one part of the immune response and that is to inhibit proteins on the virus which makes it inert and marked for destruction. You have T-cells that identify and kill infected cells and memory B cells that remember pathogens and deploy antibodies much faster if reinfected that the symptoms are non-existent or mild. Those seasonal coronaviruses were probably just as bad as covid19 when first introduced to humans but cell mediated immunity makes them very mild now.

You can be reinfected again but are you getting very sick, that is enough if covid19 only causes a cold in the future which I predict it will. Furthermore if you think about this rationally it would be really inefficient to maintain a library of antibodies for every infection you have had, it makes more evolutionary sense to have a memory to react faster when the pathogen is encountered again.

The only reason for additional vaccines is if there is very rapid mutation of Covid19 like the flu or that we get one out for the most dangerous strain and perhaps other ones to get the rest over time.



True,
But I am worried about the mutation. This is a coronavirus after all. They do tend to mutate.


All viruses mutate.

This one appears to mutate quite slowly that the spike protein and the protein coat which is what the immune system recognizes are actually pretty consistent. This is what the vaccines by AstraZenica and Johnson and Johnson are training the immune system to recognize, the spike protein.


Hopefully it works out.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:27 pm

extender wrote:
COVID has been losing its lethality. There is a spike in cases again, but it is more than a cold than the monster that appeared at the beginning of the year.

https://www.salon.com/2020/10/24/covid- ... ses-spike/


That is probably because the young and healthy have been the primary people getting it. If it gets into a long term care home it still wreaks havoc on the elderly.
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:03 pm

That's it, France back into national lockdown till December, starting tomorrow, with allowance for people to get back from vacation till Sunday : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54716993

Main difference with the first one in March-April : schools stay open, including high schools.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:36 pm

Aesma wrote:
That's it, France back into national lockdown till December, starting tomorrow, with allowance for people to get back from vacation till Sunday : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54716993

Main difference with the first one in March-April : schools stay open, including high schools.


Same here, only the milder german Version, no stay at home order. You can still get hair cuts.... but toilette paper is sold out again. And schools stay open.

And at work you can still work arbitrarily close to an arbitrary number of co-workers from an arbitrary number of households without mask, but geez, great that having a beer with some of those same coworkers after work is banned...that will definitely help.. companies are "encouraged" to send people to work from home. No mask mandate in the work place? WTH?

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
cpd
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:50 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
New Zealand and now Australia may have elimiinated local transmission of COVID-19 and will be looking towards vaccination as a pathway to opening international borders. Both countries are continuing with active symptomatic testing, tracing and islolating. There is still a risk that infection may escape from hotel quarantine as caused the outbreak in Victoria.

I see almost zero likelihood of a willingness in our countries to allow natural infection, even if it is shown to offer long term immunity.



If a conservative think-tank pays our governments enough or has the right amount of corporate influence, you can very well see our government making it mandatory for all people to be infected with the virus under the idea of getting herd immunity and unlocking the economy. Those who don’t comply could be fined or sent to prison.

Maybe I’m being too cynical but I wouldn’t put it past some of these champagne-conservative silver-spoon think tank types.
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:19 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
That's it, France back into national lockdown till December, starting tomorrow, with allowance for people to get back from vacation till Sunday : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54716993

Main difference with the first one in March-April : schools stay open, including high schools.


Same here, only the milder german Version, no stay at home order. You can still get hair cuts.... but toilette paper is sold out again. And schools stay open.

And at work you can still work arbitrarily close to an arbitrary number of co-workers from an arbitrary number of households without mask, but geez, great that having a beer with some of those same coworkers after work is banned...that will definitely help.. companies are "encouraged" to send people to work from home. No mask mandate in the work place? WTH?

Best regards
Thomas


Here in France masks are mandatory at work unless you can be far from others, in a big room where you can open the windows... So basically masks are mandatory. Since early May when we exited the first lockdown. I've burned through about 250 masks (provided by my company).

From what I've seen here, bars are definitely places where people spread the virus, though.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:01 pm

We are wide open heading into the elections.
Yee Haw.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/covid-c ... demic.html

The U.S. reported 73,240 new cases on Tuesday, bringing the seven-day average of new cases up to about 71,832, a fresh record and an increase of more than 20% compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data collected by Johns Hopkins University.

Three dozen states reported that the average number of people currently hospitalized with Covid-19 rose by at least 5% over the past week, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project, which tracks testing, hospitalization and other data on the outbreak. Cases are up by at least that amount in 45 states, according to Johns Hopkins data.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:19 pm

I saw an interview with someone form the Robert Koch institute this morning saying that, with 15k new cases a day, testing and tracing is effectively impossible, hence the "lockdown" (which appears similar to Sydney's original lockdown).

I'm hoping our exchange daughter and her family in Berlin are OK. Her father is a professor at the Charite, so I'd expect that all appropriate measures are being followed.
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tommy1808
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:39 am

Kent350787 wrote:
I saw an interview with someone form the Robert Koch institute this morning saying that, with 15k new cases a day, testing and tracing is effectively impossible, hence the "lockdown" (which appears similar to Sydney's original lockdown).


yup, at 15k/day that boils down to about 40 cases per health department and ~750 people needing to be contacted and tested. That seems tough to do.
Testing capacity is currently used to ~70% despite higher positivity rates, so that capacity is certainly at the limit alreaddy.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:38 am

Yes testing and tracing only works up to a point, unless you have the possibility to test a significant portion of your population every few days and get the result quickly, which seems very difficult to do.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:52 pm

casinterest wrote:
We are wide open heading into the elections.
Yee Haw.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/covid-c ... demic.html

The U.S. reported 73,240 new cases on Tuesday, bringing the seven-day average of new cases up to about 71,832, a fresh record and an increase of more than 20% compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data collected by Johns Hopkins University.

Three dozen states reported that the average number of people currently hospitalized with Covid-19 rose by at least 5% over the past week, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project, which tracks testing, hospitalization and other data on the outbreak. Cases are up by at least that amount in 45 states, according to Johns Hopkins data.


Trump big plan was wishful thinking, someday it would magically go away.

look where we are compared to everybody else. Utterly ridiculous. Germany and Canada, while they are having a serge, its not nearly as bad. Germany shutting down bars, restaurants, gyms and theatres.
Last edited by DLFREEBIRD on Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:53 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
casinterest wrote:
We are wide open heading into the elections.
Yee Haw.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/covid-c ... demic.html

The U.S. reported 73,240 new cases on Tuesday, bringing the seven-day average of new cases up to about 71,832, a fresh record and an increase of more than 20% compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data collected by Johns Hopkins University.

Three dozen states reported that the average number of people currently hospitalized with Covid-19 rose by at least 5% over the past week, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project, which tracks testing, hospitalization and other data on the outbreak. Cases are up by at least that amount in 45 states, according to Johns Hopkins data.


Trump big plan was wishful thinking, someday it would magically go away.

Someday is like saying someday, I will win the lottery.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:00 pm

Aesma wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
That's it, France back into national lockdown till December, starting tomorrow, with allowance for people to get back from vacation till Sunday : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54716993

Main difference with the first one in March-April : schools stay open, including high schools.


Same here, only the milder german Version, no stay at home order. You can still get hair cuts.... but toilette paper is sold out again. And schools stay open.

And at work you can still work arbitrarily close to an arbitrary number of co-workers from an arbitrary number of households without mask, but geez, great that having a beer with some of those same coworkers after work is banned...that will definitely help.. companies are "encouraged" to send people to work from home. No mask mandate in the work place? WTH?

Best regards
Thomas


Here in France masks are mandatory at work unless you can be far from others, in a big room where you can open the windows... So basically masks are mandatory. Since early May when we exited the first lockdown. I've burned through about 250 masks (provided by my company).

From what I've seen here, bars are definitely places where people spread the virus, though.


France serge is very alarming. Glad they are shutting things down, hope it helps.
 
BlueberryWheats
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2020

Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:08 pm

The town in which I live has now the highest infection rate in the United Kingdom. The rate is high enough to have gained the attention of American news network CNN. They have done a short piece on the very hospital in which I work, quite often on the ICU in close contact with these patients.

https://youtu.be/nrue4AoEuGg
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