Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Francoflier wrote:Maybe it just not as bad overall as many media and politicians would have us believe.The WHO estimates that 1 in 10 people around the World has contracted Covid-19 by now.
This is huge, as it confirms the extreme contagion and prevalence of the virus around the World, but also reduces its mortality rate dramatically. Even assuming twice the reported deaths, that would give less than 0.5% overall mortality, although this figures varies greatly depending on age.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcev ... da67b24430
Vladex wrote:Is it ok to be covid 19 skeptic or is that for later when it doesn't count?
Fourteen states reported their peak Covid-19 hospitalizations in the last week: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wisconsin, according to the Covid Tracking Project.
T4thH wrote:A video regarding the long term Covid-19 syndrome patients, so patients who do not recover as regular in two to six weeks after end of the infection. This long term Covid-19 syndrome seems to be independent of the severity of the infection, so cases even without acute symptoms can get it. There are thousands already in treatment (and many more still untreated) in Germany alone
(I have even heard from physicians, they are estimating, that on one patient who dies, there will be one patient IN WORKING AGE, who will never recover enough to work again, this is now the working hypothesis. This is something, we will finally know in some years).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2Uo7qUoSDQ
casinterest wrote:The US set a new record for number of Covid Cases yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -yesterday
81,210
The trend shows no sign of abatement.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/he ... and-cases/
We may be looking at +100,000 new cases by voting day, with the trailing death rates starting.
ArcticSEA wrote:
"We observe a significant decline in the proportion of the population with detectable antibodies over three rounds of national surveillance, using a self-administered lateral flow test, 12, 18 and 24 weeks after the first peak of infections in England," the team wrote in a pre-print version of their report, released before peer review.
"This is consistent with evidence that immunity to seasonal coronaviruses declines over 6 to 12 months after infection and emerging data on SARS-CoV-2 that also detected a decrease over time in antibody levels in individuals followed in longitudinal studies."
casinterest wrote:Looks like we will be getting annual vaccines.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... 1590c8bb08"We observe a significant decline in the proportion of the population with detectable antibodies over three rounds of national surveillance, using a self-administered lateral flow test, 12, 18 and 24 weeks after the first peak of infections in England," the team wrote in a pre-print version of their report, released before peer review.
"This is consistent with evidence that immunity to seasonal coronaviruses declines over 6 to 12 months after infection and emerging data on SARS-CoV-2 that also detected a decrease over time in antibody levels in individuals followed in longitudinal studies."
StarAC17 wrote:casinterest wrote:Looks like we will be getting annual vaccines.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... 1590c8bb08"We observe a significant decline in the proportion of the population with detectable antibodies over three rounds of national surveillance, using a self-administered lateral flow test, 12, 18 and 24 weeks after the first peak of infections in England," the team wrote in a pre-print version of their report, released before peer review.
"This is consistent with evidence that immunity to seasonal coronaviruses declines over 6 to 12 months after infection and emerging data on SARS-CoV-2 that also detected a decrease over time in antibody levels in individuals followed in longitudinal studies."
I see this headline daily and it frustrates me.
No traceable antibodies to a particular pathogen does not imply no immunity. You for a short time might have sterilizing immunity (where the antibodies will neutralize the pathogen) but I bet cell mediated immunity lasts for several years if not forever.
Antibodies make of one part of the immune response and that is to inhibit proteins on the virus which makes it inert and marked for destruction. You have T-cells that identify and kill infected cells and memory B cells that remember pathogens and deploy antibodies much faster if reinfected that the symptoms are non-existent or mild. Those seasonal coronaviruses were probably just as bad as covid19 when first introduced to humans but cell mediated immunity makes them very mild now.
You can be reinfected again but are you getting very sick, that is enough if covid19 only causes a cold in the future which I predict it will. Furthermore if you think about this rationally it would be really inefficient to maintain a library of antibodies for every infection you have had, it makes more evolutionary sense to have a memory to react faster when the pathogen is encountered again.
The only reason for additional vaccines is if there is very rapid mutation of Covid19 like the flu or that we get one out for the most dangerous strain and perhaps other ones to get the rest over time.
extender wrote:COVID has been losing its lethality. There is a spike in cases again, but it is more than a cold than the monster that appeared at the beginning of the year.
https://www.salon.com/2020/10/24/covid- ... ses-spike/
Salon wrote:To be clear, the death rate is "still higher than many infectious diseases, including the flu,"
DocLightning wrote:Some good news. Both the AstraZenica and Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate Phase III clinical trials (both of which are adenovirus-vectored products) had been paused in the US. AZ's had been paused for seven weeks and J&J's for over a week after patients in the study groups became ill.
It has become determined that those illnesses were not related to the vaccine candidates. Both are cleared to resume their trials.
In more somber news, a 28yo man in the AZ trial in Brazil passed away of complications of COVID-19. However, he had been administered the placebo.
casinterest wrote:StarAC17 wrote:casinterest wrote:Looks like we will be getting annual vaccines.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... 1590c8bb08
I see this headline daily and it frustrates me.
No traceable antibodies to a particular pathogen does not imply no immunity. You for a short time might have sterilizing immunity (where the antibodies will neutralize the pathogen) but I bet cell mediated immunity lasts for several years if not forever.
Antibodies make of one part of the immune response and that is to inhibit proteins on the virus which makes it inert and marked for destruction. You have T-cells that identify and kill infected cells and memory B cells that remember pathogens and deploy antibodies much faster if reinfected that the symptoms are non-existent or mild. Those seasonal coronaviruses were probably just as bad as covid19 when first introduced to humans but cell mediated immunity makes them very mild now.
You can be reinfected again but are you getting very sick, that is enough if covid19 only causes a cold in the future which I predict it will. Furthermore if you think about this rationally it would be really inefficient to maintain a library of antibodies for every infection you have had, it makes more evolutionary sense to have a memory to react faster when the pathogen is encountered again.
The only reason for additional vaccines is if there is very rapid mutation of Covid19 like the flu or that we get one out for the most dangerous strain and perhaps other ones to get the rest over time.
True,
But I am worried about the mutation. This is a coronavirus after all. They do tend to mutate.
StarAC17 wrote:casinterest wrote:StarAC17 wrote:
I see this headline daily and it frustrates me.
No traceable antibodies to a particular pathogen does not imply no immunity. You for a short time might have sterilizing immunity (where the antibodies will neutralize the pathogen) but I bet cell mediated immunity lasts for several years if not forever.
Antibodies make of one part of the immune response and that is to inhibit proteins on the virus which makes it inert and marked for destruction. You have T-cells that identify and kill infected cells and memory B cells that remember pathogens and deploy antibodies much faster if reinfected that the symptoms are non-existent or mild. Those seasonal coronaviruses were probably just as bad as covid19 when first introduced to humans but cell mediated immunity makes them very mild now.
You can be reinfected again but are you getting very sick, that is enough if covid19 only causes a cold in the future which I predict it will. Furthermore if you think about this rationally it would be really inefficient to maintain a library of antibodies for every infection you have had, it makes more evolutionary sense to have a memory to react faster when the pathogen is encountered again.
The only reason for additional vaccines is if there is very rapid mutation of Covid19 like the flu or that we get one out for the most dangerous strain and perhaps other ones to get the rest over time.
True,
But I am worried about the mutation. This is a coronavirus after all. They do tend to mutate.
All viruses mutate.
This one appears to mutate quite slowly that the spike protein and the protein coat which is what the immune system recognizes are actually pretty consistent. This is what the vaccines by AstraZenica and Johnson and Johnson are training the immune system to recognize, the spike protein.
extender wrote:COVID has been losing its lethality. There is a spike in cases again, but it is more than a cold than the monster that appeared at the beginning of the year.
https://www.salon.com/2020/10/24/covid- ... ses-spike/
Aesma wrote:That's it, France back into national lockdown till December, starting tomorrow, with allowance for people to get back from vacation till Sunday : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54716993
Main difference with the first one in March-April : schools stay open, including high schools.
Kent350787 wrote:New Zealand and now Australia may have elimiinated local transmission of COVID-19 and will be looking towards vaccination as a pathway to opening international borders. Both countries are continuing with active symptomatic testing, tracing and islolating. There is still a risk that infection may escape from hotel quarantine as caused the outbreak in Victoria.
I see almost zero likelihood of a willingness in our countries to allow natural infection, even if it is shown to offer long term immunity.
tommy1808 wrote:Aesma wrote:That's it, France back into national lockdown till December, starting tomorrow, with allowance for people to get back from vacation till Sunday : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54716993
Main difference with the first one in March-April : schools stay open, including high schools.
Same here, only the milder german Version, no stay at home order. You can still get hair cuts.... but toilette paper is sold out again. And schools stay open.
And at work you can still work arbitrarily close to an arbitrary number of co-workers from an arbitrary number of households without mask, but geez, great that having a beer with some of those same coworkers after work is banned...that will definitely help.. companies are "encouraged" to send people to work from home. No mask mandate in the work place? WTH?
Best regards
Thomas
The U.S. reported 73,240 new cases on Tuesday, bringing the seven-day average of new cases up to about 71,832, a fresh record and an increase of more than 20% compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data collected by Johns Hopkins University.
Three dozen states reported that the average number of people currently hospitalized with Covid-19 rose by at least 5% over the past week, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project, which tracks testing, hospitalization and other data on the outbreak. Cases are up by at least that amount in 45 states, according to Johns Hopkins data.
Kent350787 wrote:I saw an interview with someone form the Robert Koch institute this morning saying that, with 15k new cases a day, testing and tracing is effectively impossible, hence the "lockdown" (which appears similar to Sydney's original lockdown).
casinterest wrote:We are wide open heading into the elections.
Yee Haw.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/covid-c ... demic.htmlThe U.S. reported 73,240 new cases on Tuesday, bringing the seven-day average of new cases up to about 71,832, a fresh record and an increase of more than 20% compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data collected by Johns Hopkins University.
Three dozen states reported that the average number of people currently hospitalized with Covid-19 rose by at least 5% over the past week, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project, which tracks testing, hospitalization and other data on the outbreak. Cases are up by at least that amount in 45 states, according to Johns Hopkins data.
DLFREEBIRD wrote:casinterest wrote:We are wide open heading into the elections.
Yee Haw.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/covid-c ... demic.htmlThe U.S. reported 73,240 new cases on Tuesday, bringing the seven-day average of new cases up to about 71,832, a fresh record and an increase of more than 20% compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data collected by Johns Hopkins University.
Three dozen states reported that the average number of people currently hospitalized with Covid-19 rose by at least 5% over the past week, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project, which tracks testing, hospitalization and other data on the outbreak. Cases are up by at least that amount in 45 states, according to Johns Hopkins data.
Trump big plan was wishful thinking, someday it would magically go away.
Aesma wrote:tommy1808 wrote:Aesma wrote:That's it, France back into national lockdown till December, starting tomorrow, with allowance for people to get back from vacation till Sunday : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54716993
Main difference with the first one in March-April : schools stay open, including high schools.
Same here, only the milder german Version, no stay at home order. You can still get hair cuts.... but toilette paper is sold out again. And schools stay open.
And at work you can still work arbitrarily close to an arbitrary number of co-workers from an arbitrary number of households without mask, but geez, great that having a beer with some of those same coworkers after work is banned...that will definitely help.. companies are "encouraged" to send people to work from home. No mask mandate in the work place? WTH?
Best regards
Thomas
Here in France masks are mandatory at work unless you can be far from others, in a big room where you can open the windows... So basically masks are mandatory. Since early May when we exited the first lockdown. I've burned through about 250 masks (provided by my company).
From what I've seen here, bars are definitely places where people spread the virus, though.