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NYCVIE
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US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:15 am

So with the election just about a week away, we're in the final stretch of this draining election cycle. Something unique about this election cycle is just how many states can be considered swing states given how close polling is and the importance of them to both major campaigns (and states that were flipped in 2016). Most would probably agree that the following states would fall into this category:

Arizona
Florida
Michigan
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

For me, I would also include Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Minnesota, and ... Texas as swing states in this election as well.

Drop your predictions for any of these states!
 
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DL717
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:18 am

Trump will probably get Florida, Ohio, Iowa and NC. I give him 220 electors, give or take. He takes Texas too. Wisconsin is a wild card. The rest are gone unless there is something going on in the polls.
Last edited by DL717 on Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:20 am, edited 3 times in total.
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NYCVIE
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:19 am

I would say confidently that Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin go for Biden. With less confidence, I'd also say Pennsylvania and North Carolina do as well. I think Trump takes Ohio and Iowa.

I very conservatively would say Florida narrowly goes for Biden. Georgia and Texas are the two that I really see potentially going either way so I'll wait to see.
 
winginit
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:19 am

Conservative Estimate:

Arizona: Trump
Florida: Trump
Michigan: Biden
North Carolina: Trump
Pennsylvania: Biden
Wisconsin: Biden

Biden wins 278-260
 
NYCVIE
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:25 am

winginit wrote:
Conservative Estimate:

Arizona: Trump
Florida: Trump
Michigan: Biden
North Carolina: Trump
Pennsylvania: Biden
Wisconsin: Biden

Biden wins 278-260


Forgot to say in my post, but I also (conservatively) think Arizona will go for Biden. He's held a consistent roughly 3-5 point lead over Trump for months now. Trump polled higher than Hillary in 2016 and then went on to win Arizona but the polls underestimated Clinton and Trump underperformed. Also it very much looks like Mark Kelly will win the Senate race there as well giving Arizona two Democratic senators.
 
NIKV69
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:42 am

I think Trump has OH and FL, the rest are up for grabs. PA is going to be huge in this election.
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ltbewr
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:20 am

In the end, to me it will come down to Pennsylvania and waiting for the count of the mail ballots, especially in Philadelphia that would tip the EC vote to Biden. PA will become a huge battleground in the post-election actions by Trump and Republicans to try to limit the counting but I believe when all the votes are counted as they should be per state laws, then Biden should win.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:35 am

I think OH will be wrong for the second time since 1960, though it will still be close to the national result, rather than the rightward lurch of 2016. Still, I think the days of OH being competitive are in the past; with Appalachian OH bleeding support in favor of Republicans, Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati are simply too little to make up for ancestral Democrat votes. I think OH will become the new FL: competitive to a certain extent, but allowing Republicans to win all the time. Iowa is not far behind in that sense; what probably keeps IA a bit more competitive is farmers and their hardships, but given that Republicans control all the levers, I think IA's days as a purple state are also numbered.

As such, I predict Biden will reestablish the Midwest blue wall: MI, WI, and PA and hold the Clinton states (that should be enough to give him the presidency). NC and FL are leaning towards him. GA is pure tossup at the moment; it may very well go blue. And TX is leaning more towards tossup than lean R; the only thing that prevents me from calling TX a tossup is its strong R lean. That being said, Republicans have maximized the vote in TX; there's no such thing as ancestral Democratic areas anymore; it's rural vs urban, with the suburban vote being key to GOP power and likely being eroded. The question is whether it'll erode enough to tilt the state to Democrats (at all levels).
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N867DA
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:14 am

Ohio will go Trump, not by as many points as 2016 but still comfortably.
Pennsylvania will likely go Trump, but it depends on turnout from about 3-4 counties
Wisconsin will likely go Trump, but again depends on how 3-4 counties perform.
Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia are not even close-Trump
Michigan is harder to guess.

Trump will win several states by very slim margins, and get the White House. But the popular vote will be a blowout—for Biden.
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NYCVIE
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:51 am

N867DA wrote:
Ohio will go Trump, not by as many points as 2016 but still comfortably.
Pennsylvania will likely go Trump, but it depends on turnout from about 3-4 counties
Wisconsin will likely go Trump, but again depends on how 3-4 counties perform.
Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia are not even close-Trump
Michigan is harder to guess.

Trump will win several states by very slim margins, and get the White House. But the popular vote will be a blowout—for Biden.


Curious as to what metrics you're using to come to these decisions. Outside of Ohio, Biden has been consistently leading in all of the states you mentioned including in the "not even close" category.
 
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:54 am

NYCVIE wrote:
N867DA wrote:
Ohio will go Trump, not by as many points as 2016 but still comfortably.
Pennsylvania will likely go Trump, but it depends on turnout from about 3-4 counties
Wisconsin will likely go Trump, but again depends on how 3-4 counties perform.
Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia are not even close-Trump
Michigan is harder to guess.

Trump will win several states by very slim margins, and get the White House. But the popular vote will be a blowout—for Biden.


Curious as to what metrics you're using to come to these decisions. Outside of Ohio, Biden has been consistently leading in all of the states you mentioned including in the "not even close" category.


Honestly, just my gut. I think most polling leans Democratic and despite pollsters best efforts it’s hard to account for.
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sierrakilo44
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:14 pm

N867DA wrote:
Honestly, just my gut. I think most polling leans Democratic and despite pollsters best efforts it’s hard to account for.


From what I’m told the 2016 polls underestimated the white non college turnout in the rust belt, which leaned Trump. The polls were adjusted with a higher proportion of white non college educated for the 2018 mid-terms and produced a result 1% from the actual vote, so quite accurate.

For instance I believe pollsters modelled 2016 figures based on 48% college educated turnout, it was closer to 38%.
 
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:08 pm

MI / WI / PA: Biden should be on track to regain them and restore the blue "firewall" in the Midwest
OH: Probably Trump
IA: Tossup but I'd expect it to go for Trump too
MN: Surely Biden
NC: Leaning toward Biden; the environment there is working against Trump with Cunningham still leading in the Senate polls against Tillis despite the sexting "scandal" and Cooper looking to be mostly on track for re-election as governor
GA / TX: Surprisingly up in the air but I don't think both will go blue. GA seems a tad more likely if it ends up being one of the two.
FL: I could see Biden at a slight advantage but it might as well stay red. If Trump loses FL, he's probably toast.
AZ: Very likely Biden. Has had consistent polling leads and runs in a very comfortable environment given McSally's unpopularity
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TangoandCash
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:21 pm

I don't think Texas will go blue this cycle. Demographics are changing, particularly in places like Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas, but there's still lots of conservatives/Republicans in the suburbs and rural areas. Texas will shift towards purple over the next couple election cycles, but it will be a while before it's a true toss-up.

Of course, I could be wrong, and if Texas goes blue in the 2020 presidential vote, Trump's chances in the Electoral College become very very slim.
 
NIKV69
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:34 pm

TangoandCash wrote:
I don't think Texas will go blue this cycle. Demographics are changing, particularly in places like Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas, but there's still lots of conservatives/Republicans in the suburbs and rural areas. Texas will shift towards purple over the next couple election cycles, but it will be a while before it's a true toss-up.

Of course, I could be wrong, and if Texas goes blue in the 2020 presidential vote, Trump's chances in the Electoral College become very very slim.


If he loses Texas it's over.
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ER757
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:32 pm

I'll say FL, AZ, OH, TX go for Trump
GA is a toss-up
The others go Biden - should be enough for the EC win barring any GOP shenanigans

I think the congressional majorities in the House and Senate stay as they are now. Although I wouldn't be shocked if the Senate goes blue by a seat or two. A lot of people are pretty ticked off about the fast tracking of Barrett to the Supreme Court
 
N867DA
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:33 pm

In ultra basic terms with some exceptions every state that has voted Republican the past couple cycles but also has intercontinental air service is getting bluer or attaining swing state status. AZ, TX, GA, FL, NC.Even UT, though they are starting from a far, far safer solid Republican starting point.

Now we just gotta look at BNA, CHS, and MSY lol. And CVG, to be pedantic.
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Kent350787
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:26 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
TangoandCash wrote:
I don't think Texas will go blue this cycle. Demographics are changing, particularly in places like Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas, but there's still lots of conservatives/Republicans in the suburbs and rural areas. Texas will shift towards purple over the next couple election cycles, but it will be a while before it's a true toss-up.

Of course, I could be wrong, and if Texas goes blue in the 2020 presidential vote, Trump's chances in the Electoral College become very very slim.


If he loses Texas it's over.


If Texas goes blue he's well into huge ass whooping biggest defeat in decades territory!
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:35 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
TangoandCash wrote:
I don't think Texas will go blue this cycle. Demographics are changing, particularly in places like Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas, but there's still lots of conservatives/Republicans in the suburbs and rural areas. Texas will shift towards purple over the next couple election cycles, but it will be a while before it's a true toss-up.

Of course, I could be wrong, and if Texas goes blue in the 2020 presidential vote, Trump's chances in the Electoral College become very very slim.


If he loses Texas it's over.


If Texas goes blue he's well into huge ass whooping biggest defeat in decades territory!



Well NBC just moved Texas to a Tossup. Pretty much shows how well the GOP has fried things over. Romney took +15% on Obama in 2012 in Texas. Trump took it by +9% in 2016.

Trump is polling1-4% advantage right now.

2024 is when I expect Blue in Texas. Probably shows that the GOP is going to have to re evaluate after this election regardless.

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5229 ... ntial-race
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... ral/texas/
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LittleFokker
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:36 pm

Realistic guess:

Biden - NC FL AZ IA PA MI WI MN

Traitor - TX OH GA (though I wouldn't be surprised if TX goes Biden's way, in which case, there is no path to victory for Traitor)

If the polling is accurate, Biden should be on track to win somewhere between 350 and 400 EC votes.

But I refuse to remain confident in this election. The nightmare isn't over until it's over Jan 20, and Republicans acknowledge Biden's new authority.
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Kent350787
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:40 pm

After 2016 I'm loathe to assume any outcome, and there is still the risk that the GoP will use the courts to have valid votes tossed out (this week's tied SCOTUS decision on WI is worrying if you read the conservatives' opinon).

But I wouldn't have thought that the Dems would have takan Biden to GA if they didn't feel there was a chance of a win.
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727LOVER
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:49 pm

I made predictions 4 years ago and had egg on my face.......so I will not do that again.
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NIKV69
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:56 pm

Kent350787 wrote:


If Texas goes blue he's well into huge ass whooping biggest defeat in decades territory!


It's ok he isn't losing Texas.
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717atOGG
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:02 pm

Here's my prediction, going from west to east.

Arizona: Biden probably has a 2/3 chance here, he's had a small but steady lead in polls since March, and Sinema's 2018 victory, Mark Kelly's strong polling performance against McSally. and Trump's conflicts with the late John McCain all seemed to be beneficial towards Democrats.

Texas: Trump, although Biden seems poised to improve on Clinton's performance here four years ago I think it isn't quite ready to flip blue yet, maybe in another 4 or 8 years.

Minnesota: Biden, almost certainly. He's held a steady lead in polls for many months now, and although I could imagine Trump flipping it if the economy was still decent, I think he's lost the opportunity to do so since COVID hit.

Nebraska's 2nd District: Most likely Biden, not much polling has been done here but out of the ones that have been done Biden's held a steady lead outside of the margin of error.

Iowa: Currently a toss-up on FiveThirtyEight, but I'd expect Trump to carry it narrowly. He won Iowa by almost 10 points in 2016, a 15-point swing to the right from 4 years ago, and while Biden has had a few good polls I'm not sure if he'll be able to fully overcome that.

Wisconsin: Biden, he has a ~6 point lead there, and while Clinton had the same lead, I'd tend to put more stock into his lead now since Trump actually led here in pre-COVID polls, showing more evidence of voters defecting from Trump to Biden.

Michigan: Biden, for sure. Even if he loses the election I'd expect him to carry this state since Trump only took it by 0.2% last time, and Biden has held a consistent 6-9 point lead for many months now.

Ohio: Has been a consistent bellwether for 60 years now, but it swung heavily for Trump in 2016 by 8 points, more than Obama won it by in '08 or '12, so although Biden has led in polling at times, I'd expect it to lose its bellwether streak and vote narrowly for Trump again.

Pennsylvania: Biden, he's held a stronger lead than Clinton and is well-liked here (was often referred to as Pennsylvania's third senator), so I think he has a 80-90% chance of carrying the state.

New Hampshire: Most definitely Biden, he's leading by double digits and like Minnesota, Trump could have possibly been competitive here if the economy was still strong considering how close it was 4 years ago, but I think he's squandered that.

Maine's 2nd District: Toss-up, it swung to the right by a large margin in 2016 but most polling has shown a dead heat.

North Carolina: Similarly to Arizona, I'd say that Biden has about a 2/3 chance of winning NC if he can attain Obama-level minority and youth turnout, and polling shows him with a 2-3 point lead, but that's still within the margin of error so Trump can feasibly carry it too.

Georgia: Toss-up but slightly leaning towards Trump, some polls have been released that are favorable to Biden (A Civiqs one was released today with him being up by 5), but the state is notorious for voter suppression so it could go either way.

Florida: Like AZ and NC, Biden has a 2/3 chance here according to FiveThirtyEight. He's held a lead between 1 and 7 points since April, and is currently up by about 2.5 points. However, both sides have made gains here, considering that many seniors are souring on Trump, but the GOP is seeing a registration surge in the state, so it could go either way really.
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:28 pm

538 has a good article on this of course:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is ... nsylvania/

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alfa164
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:38 pm

lugie wrote:
MI / WI / PA: Biden should be on track to regain them and restore the blue "firewall" in the Midwest
OH: Probably Trump
IA: Tossup but I'd expect it to go for Trump too
MN: Surely Biden
NC: Leaning toward Biden; the environment there is working against Trump with Cunningham still leading in the Senate polls against Tillis despite the sexting "scandal" and Cooper looking to be mostly on track for re-election as governor
GA / TX: Surprisingly up in the air but I don't think both will go blue. GA seems a tad more likely if it ends up being one of the two.
FL: I could see Biden at a slight advantage but it might as well stay red. If Trump loses FL, he's probably toast.
AZ: Very likely Biden. Has had consistent polling leads and runs in a very comfortable environment given McSally's unpopularity


717atOGG wrote:
Here's my prediction, going from west to east.
Arizona: Biden probably has a 2/3 chance here, he's had a small but steady lead in polls since March, and Sinema's 2018 victory, Mark Kelly's strong polling performance against McSally. and Trump's conflicts with the late John McCain all seemed to be beneficial towards Democrats.
Texas: Trump, although Biden seems poised to improve on Clinton's performance here four years ago I think it isn't quite ready to flip blue yet, maybe in another 4 or 8 years.
Minnesota: Biden, almost certainly. He's held a steady lead in polls for many months now, and although I could imagine Trump flipping it if the economy was still decent, I think he's lost the opportunity to do so since COVID hit.
Nebraska's 2nd District: Most likely Biden, not much polling has been done here but out of the ones that have been done Biden's held a steady lead outside of the margin of error.
Iowa: Currently a toss-up on FiveThirtyEight, but I'd expect Trump to carry it narrowly. He won Iowa by almost 10 points in 2016, a 15-point swing to the right from 4 years ago, and while Biden has had a few good polls I'm not sure if he'll be able to fully overcome that.
Wisconsin: Biden, he has a ~6 point lead there, and while Clinton had the same lead, I'd tend to put more stock into his lead now since Trump actually led here in pre-COVID polls, showing more evidence of voters defecting from Trump to Biden.
Michigan: Biden, for sure. Even if he loses the election I'd expect him to carry this state since Trump only took it by 0.2% last time, and Biden has held a consistent 6-9 point lead for many months now.
Ohio: Has been a consistent bellwether for 60 years now, but it swung heavily for Trump in 2016 by 8 points, more than Obama won it by in '08 or '12, so although Biden has led in polling at times, I'd expect it to lose its bellwether streak and vote narrowly for Trump again.
Pennsylvania: Biden, he's held a stronger lead than Clinton and is well-liked here (was often referred to as Pennsylvania's third senator), so I think he has a 80-90% chance of carrying the state.
New Hampshire: Most definitely Biden, he's leading by double digits and like Minnesota, Trump could have possibly been competitive here if the economy was still strong considering how close it was 4 years ago, but I think he's squandered that.
Maine's 2nd District: Toss-up, it swung to the right by a large margin in 2016 but most polling has shown a dead heat.
North Carolina: Similarly to Arizona, I'd say that Biden has about a 2/3 chance of winning NC if he can attain Obama-level minority and youth turnout, and polling shows him with a 2-3 point lead, but that's still within the margin of error so Trump can feasibly carry it too.
Georgia: Toss-up but slightly leaning towards Trump, some polls have been released that are favorable to Biden (A Civiqs one was released today with him being up by 5), but the state is notorious for voter suppression so it could go either way.
Florida: Like AZ and NC, Biden has a 2/3 chance here according to FiveThirtyEight. He's held a lead between 1 and 7 points since April, and is currently up by about 2.5 points. However, both sides have made gains here, considering that many seniors are souring on Trump, but the GOP is seeing a registration surge in the state, so it could go either way really.


:checkmark: . I think both of you are spot-on - with one caveat. Early voting levels - both in numbers and in Democratic voters - have been so high, it will take a huge surge of Trump-puppets on election day to overcome these already-cast votes. If anything happens to discourage in-person voting then - or if Trump does anything so really, really stupid that is base voters see the light (and we know he is capable of just about any devastatingly ignorant conduct you can imagine), then any or all of those red-leaning states could flip. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see one more notoriously red state to hop to the Biden column (Kansas, anyone?) when the final count is in.

Even the reddest of voters must be starting to realize what a disaster Trump is.
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einsteinboricua
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:20 am

NIKV69 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:


If Texas goes blue he's well into huge ass whooping biggest defeat in decades territory!


It's ok he isn't losing Texas.

Your track record isn't exactly spotless...remember the AL special election?

I'd be careful of future predictions, just in case.
Last edited by einsteinboricua on Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Newark727
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:23 am

Re: flipping Texas - if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
 
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casinterest
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:30 am

Newark727 wrote:
Re: flipping Texas - if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.


It's not going to flip this election, but that it is even being discussed is a horror story for the GOP.
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:35 am

Ken777 wrote:
Harris County (where Houston is) is physically larger than RI

And its population is nearly 4 times that of RI.

sierrakilo44 wrote:
From what I’m told the 2016 polls underestimated the white non college turnout in the rust belt, which leaned Trump. The polls were adjusted with a higher proportion of white non college educated for the 2018 mid-terms and produced a result 1% from the actual vote, so quite accurate.

For instance I believe pollsters modelled 2016 figures based on 48% college educated turnout, it was closer to 38%.

People still cling to this, but there were many factors at play in 2016:
1. Trump was the outsider vs Clinton (the insider). His message to "drain the swamp" caught on. That message has disappeared from the rallies...because he's now the insider.
2. Clinton was dogged by the email scandal. I think she might have been able to put away 2/3 midwestern states had it not been for Comey's letter to Congress AND the media seizing on it and making it the news du jour. By the time Comey sent a letter again saying "false alarm", it was too late.
3. So many promises were made in 2016. Bring back manufacturing and coal mining, stop immigration, drill baby drill...in essence: MAGA. Yet none of these things happened and things got worse with Covid and a bungled response.
4. Conservatives may have been willing to make a deal with the devil if it meant establishing conservatives judges on benches. That has been carried out; there's no more reason for conservatives (especially religious ones) to stick with a man who does not represent any conservative values, and given points 1 and 3, they've likely soured on him regardless.

Finally, polls in 2018 were pretty spot on. And given preliminary turnout with early voting, my guess is that the "shy Trump voter" is just a myth at this point, and if it does exist, I predict it will be wiped out with newly energized liberal voters and moderate/independents no longer thrilled with Trump.
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:47 am

alfa164 wrote:
lugie wrote:
MI / WI / PA: Biden should be on track to regain them and restore the blue "firewall" in the Midwest
OH: Probably Trump
IA: Tossup but I'd expect it to go for Trump too
MN: Surely Biden
NC: Leaning toward Biden; the environment there is working against Trump with Cunningham still leading in the Senate polls against Tillis despite the sexting "scandal" and Cooper looking to be mostly on track for re-election as governor
GA / TX: Surprisingly up in the air but I don't think both will go blue. GA seems a tad more likely if it ends up being one of the two.
FL: I could see Biden at a slight advantage but it might as well stay red. If Trump loses FL, he's probably toast.
AZ: Very likely Biden. Has had consistent polling leads and runs in a very comfortable environment given McSally's unpopularity


717atOGG wrote:
Here's my prediction, going from west to east.
Arizona: Biden probably has a 2/3 chance here, he's had a small but steady lead in polls since March, and Sinema's 2018 victory, Mark Kelly's strong polling performance against McSally. and Trump's conflicts with the late John McCain all seemed to be beneficial towards Democrats.
Texas: Trump, although Biden seems poised to improve on Clinton's performance here four years ago I think it isn't quite ready to flip blue yet, maybe in another 4 or 8 years.
Minnesota: Biden, almost certainly. He's held a steady lead in polls for many months now, and although I could imagine Trump flipping it if the economy was still decent, I think he's lost the opportunity to do so since COVID hit.
Nebraska's 2nd District: Most likely Biden, not much polling has been done here but out of the ones that have been done Biden's held a steady lead outside of the margin of error.
Iowa: Currently a toss-up on FiveThirtyEight, but I'd expect Trump to carry it narrowly. He won Iowa by almost 10 points in 2016, a 15-point swing to the right from 4 years ago, and while Biden has had a few good polls I'm not sure if he'll be able to fully overcome that.
Wisconsin: Biden, he has a ~6 point lead there, and while Clinton had the same lead, I'd tend to put more stock into his lead now since Trump actually led here in pre-COVID polls, showing more evidence of voters defecting from Trump to Biden.
Michigan: Biden, for sure. Even if he loses the election I'd expect him to carry this state since Trump only took it by 0.2% last time, and Biden has held a consistent 6-9 point lead for many months now.
Ohio: Has been a consistent bellwether for 60 years now, but it swung heavily for Trump in 2016 by 8 points, more than Obama won it by in '08 or '12, so although Biden has led in polling at times, I'd expect it to lose its bellwether streak and vote narrowly for Trump again.
Pennsylvania: Biden, he's held a stronger lead than Clinton and is well-liked here (was often referred to as Pennsylvania's third senator), so I think he has a 80-90% chance of carrying the state.
New Hampshire: Most definitely Biden, he's leading by double digits and like Minnesota, Trump could have possibly been competitive here if the economy was still strong considering how close it was 4 years ago, but I think he's squandered that.
Maine's 2nd District: Toss-up, it swung to the right by a large margin in 2016 but most polling has shown a dead heat.
North Carolina: Similarly to Arizona, I'd say that Biden has about a 2/3 chance of winning NC if he can attain Obama-level minority and youth turnout, and polling shows him with a 2-3 point lead, but that's still within the margin of error so Trump can feasibly carry it too.
Georgia: Toss-up but slightly leaning towards Trump, some polls have been released that are favorable to Biden (A Civiqs one was released today with him being up by 5), but the state is notorious for voter suppression so it could go either way.
Florida: Like AZ and NC, Biden has a 2/3 chance here according to FiveThirtyEight. He's held a lead between 1 and 7 points since April, and is currently up by about 2.5 points. However, both sides have made gains here, considering that many seniors are souring on Trump, but the GOP is seeing a registration surge in the state, so it could go either way really.


:checkmark: . I think both of you are spot-on - with one caveat. Early voting levels - both in numbers and in Democratic voters - have been so high, it will take a huge surge of Trump-puppets on election day to overcome these already-cast votes. If anything happens to discourage in-person voting then - or if Trump does anything so really, really stupid that is base voters see the light (and we know he is capable of just about any devastatingly ignorant conduct you can imagine), then any or all of those red-leaning states could flip. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see one more notoriously red state to hop to the Biden column (Kansas, anyone?) when the final count is in.

Even the reddest of voters must be starting to realize what a disaster Trump is.


Agree with all of this. I am in the "flippiest" of states .. Florida. Florida and North Carolina should have results on election night as they can count mail and early votes before Nov. 3. If they are called for Biden .. in my opinion .. it is all over but the shouting .. and the lawsuits. I don't think Minnesota and Michigan were ever in doubt for Biden. Wisconsin has come over in the latest polls and Pennsylvania is on an upward trajectory.

Having said that, I hope the pollsters have truly corrected for the "uneducated white male" effect. In the Trump video I saw today there seemed to be a lot of the standing there .. in the rain.
 
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:53 am

airtechy wrote:
alfa164 wrote:
lugie wrote:
MI / WI / PA: Biden should be on track to regain them and restore the blue "firewall" in the Midwest
OH: Probably Trump
IA: Tossup but I'd expect it to go for Trump too
MN: Surely Biden
NC: Leaning toward Biden; the environment there is working against Trump with Cunningham still leading in the Senate polls against Tillis despite the sexting "scandal" and Cooper looking to be mostly on track for re-election as governor
GA / TX: Surprisingly up in the air but I don't think both will go blue. GA seems a tad more likely if it ends up being one of the two.
FL: I could see Biden at a slight advantage but it might as well stay red. If Trump loses FL, he's probably toast.
AZ: Very likely Biden. Has had consistent polling leads and runs in a very comfortable environment given McSally's unpopularity


717atOGG wrote:
Here's my prediction, going from west to east.
Arizona: Biden probably has a 2/3 chance here, he's had a small but steady lead in polls since March, and Sinema's 2018 victory, Mark Kelly's strong polling performance against McSally. and Trump's conflicts with the late John McCain all seemed to be beneficial towards Democrats.
Texas: Trump, although Biden seems poised to improve on Clinton's performance here four years ago I think it isn't quite ready to flip blue yet, maybe in another 4 or 8 years.
Minnesota: Biden, almost certainly. He's held a steady lead in polls for many months now, and although I could imagine Trump flipping it if the economy was still decent, I think he's lost the opportunity to do so since COVID hit.
Nebraska's 2nd District: Most likely Biden, not much polling has been done here but out of the ones that have been done Biden's held a steady lead outside of the margin of error.
Iowa: Currently a toss-up on FiveThirtyEight, but I'd expect Trump to carry it narrowly. He won Iowa by almost 10 points in 2016, a 15-point swing to the right from 4 years ago, and while Biden has had a few good polls I'm not sure if he'll be able to fully overcome that.
Wisconsin: Biden, he has a ~6 point lead there, and while Clinton had the same lead, I'd tend to put more stock into his lead now since Trump actually led here in pre-COVID polls, showing more evidence of voters defecting from Trump to Biden.
Michigan: Biden, for sure. Even if he loses the election I'd expect him to carry this state since Trump only took it by 0.2% last time, and Biden has held a consistent 6-9 point lead for many months now.
Ohio: Has been a consistent bellwether for 60 years now, but it swung heavily for Trump in 2016 by 8 points, more than Obama won it by in '08 or '12, so although Biden has led in polling at times, I'd expect it to lose its bellwether streak and vote narrowly for Trump again.
Pennsylvania: Biden, he's held a stronger lead than Clinton and is well-liked here (was often referred to as Pennsylvania's third senator), so I think he has a 80-90% chance of carrying the state.
New Hampshire: Most definitely Biden, he's leading by double digits and like Minnesota, Trump could have possibly been competitive here if the economy was still strong considering how close it was 4 years ago, but I think he's squandered that.
Maine's 2nd District: Toss-up, it swung to the right by a large margin in 2016 but most polling has shown a dead heat.
North Carolina: Similarly to Arizona, I'd say that Biden has about a 2/3 chance of winning NC if he can attain Obama-level minority and youth turnout, and polling shows him with a 2-3 point lead, but that's still within the margin of error so Trump can feasibly carry it too.
Georgia: Toss-up but slightly leaning towards Trump, some polls have been released that are favorable to Biden (A Civiqs one was released today with him being up by 5), but the state is notorious for voter suppression so it could go either way.
Florida: Like AZ and NC, Biden has a 2/3 chance here according to FiveThirtyEight. He's held a lead between 1 and 7 points since April, and is currently up by about 2.5 points. However, both sides have made gains here, considering that many seniors are souring on Trump, but the GOP is seeing a registration surge in the state, so it could go either way really.


:checkmark: . I think both of you are spot-on - with one caveat. Early voting levels - both in numbers and in Democratic voters - have been so high, it will take a huge surge of Trump-puppets on election day to overcome these already-cast votes. If anything happens to discourage in-person voting then - or if Trump does anything so really, really stupid that is base voters see the light (and we know he is capable of just about any devastatingly ignorant conduct you can imagine), then any or all of those red-leaning states could flip. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see one more notoriously red state to hop to the Biden column (Kansas, anyone?) when the final count is in.

Even the reddest of voters must be starting to realize what a disaster Trump is.


Agree with all of this. I am in the "flippiest" of states .. Florida. Florida and North Carolina should have results on election night as they can count mail and early votes before Nov. 3. If they are called for Biden .. in my opinion .. it is all over but the shouting .. and the lawsuits. I don't think Minnesota and Michigan were ever in doubt for Biden. Wisconsin has come over in the latest polls and Pennsylvania is on an upward trajectory.

Having said that, I hope the pollsters have truly corrected for the "uneducated white male" effect. In the Trump video I saw today there seemed to be a lot of the standing there .. in the rain.



The issue the polls missed in 2016 was how strongly the wealthier non- college -educated were going to go for Trump. This has been accounted for ( theoretically) so we should have a better idea this time around.
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Pi7472000
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:18 am

I see Biden winning all the ones listed at the beginning. I think Texas and Georgia are now swing states too. This will be a huge landslide victory that we have not seen in years!! Very exciting times for the progressive left!! The 2020s will be a defining decade for progressives and their policies.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:32 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
I see Biden winning all the ones listed at the beginning. I think Texas and Georgia are now swing states too. This will be a huge landslide victory that we have not seen in years!! Very exciting times for the progressive left!! The 2020s will be a defining decade for progressives and their policies.

Hardly. This is a blowback election; nothing more. This is not the country realigning itself.

I don't foresee more Democrat majorities at the presidential level until at least 2030. As TX, GA, and AZ become bluer, there's the risk of OH, MN, WI, and PA becoming red. Even NY (without NYC) is barely blue; going forward, NYC will be what anchors NY to the blue column (much like NoVA and Denver anchor VA and CO). And as some states become competitive, it means more likely Republican victories in Congress (especially at the Senate level). While Democrats salivate at getting both of AZ's Senate seats and potentially a seat in both TX and GA, they'll have to contend with the likelihood of losing more midwestern seats (so I would expect MN to elect a GOP Senator before 2030; if OH's Brown and PA's Casey retire in 2024, expect their seats to flip red, even at a presidential election year.

Bottom line: progressives can celebrate a potential victory in 2020, but it'll likely be cut short in 2022 when the Senate/House flip to the GOP.
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Kent350787
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:03 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
I see Biden winning all the ones listed at the beginning. I think Texas and Georgia are now swing states too. This will be a huge landslide victory that we have not seen in years!! Very exciting times for the progressive left!! The 2020s will be a defining decade for progressives and their policies.


Please just call them progressive. "progressive left" just confuses the rest of the world which sees US progressives as centre left at best.
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:16 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
I see Biden winning all the ones listed at the beginning. I think Texas and Georgia are now swing states too. This will be a huge landslide victory that we have not seen in years!! Very exciting times for the progressive left!! The 2020s will be a defining decade for progressives and their policies.

Hardly. This is a blowback election; nothing more. This is not the country realigning itself.

I don't foresee more Democrat majorities at the presidential level until at least 2030. As TX, GA, and AZ become bluer, there's the risk of OH, MN, WI, and PA becoming red. Even NY (without NYC) is barely blue; going forward, NYC will be what anchors NY to the blue column (much like NoVA and Denver anchor VA and CO). And as some states become competitive, it means more likely Republican victories in Congress (especially at the Senate level). While Democrats salivate at getting both of AZ's Senate seats and potentially a seat in both TX and GA, they'll have to contend with the likelihood of losing more midwestern seats (so I would expect MN to elect a GOP Senator before 2030; if OH's Brown and PA's Casey retire in 2024, expect their seats to flip red, even at a presidential election year.

Bottom line: progressives can celebrate a potential victory in 2020, but it'll likely be cut short in 2022 when the Senate/House flip to the GOP.


With social issues becoming less of an issue, I don’t expect to be able to predict anything going forward. Older boomer coffee clutch issues (in the age group old enough to have been drafted for Vietnam) are dead and there will be greater emphasis on voting with your wallet. We can also hope for better candidates from a younger generation, but I’m not holding my breath.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
N867DA
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:12 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
Pi7472000 wrote:
I see Biden winning all the ones listed at the beginning. I think Texas and Georgia are now swing states too. This will be a huge landslide victory that we have not seen in years!! Very exciting times for the progressive left!! The 2020s will be a defining decade for progressives and their policies.

Hardly. This is a blowback election; nothing more. This is not the country realigning itself.

I don't foresee more Democrat majorities at the presidential level until at least 2030. As TX, GA, and AZ become bluer, there's the risk of OH, MN, WI, and PA becoming red. Even NY (without NYC) is barely blue; going forward, NYC will be what anchors NY to the blue column (much like NoVA and Denver anchor VA and CO). And as some states become competitive, it means more likely Republican victories in Congress (especially at the Senate level). While Democrats salivate at getting both of AZ's Senate seats and potentially a seat in both TX and GA, they'll have to contend with the likelihood of losing more midwestern seats (so I would expect MN to elect a GOP Senator before 2030; if OH's Brown and PA's Casey retire in 2024, expect their seats to flip red, even at a presidential election year.

Bottom line: progressives can celebrate a potential victory in 2020, but it'll likely be cut short in 2022 when the Senate/House flip to the GOP.


Worth noting that while the senate is what it is, many of those states may lose electors and house representation in favor of newly competitive states.

I still predict a Trump re-election, Republican Senate, and Democratic House this cycle.
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:45 am

DL717 wrote:
We can also hope for better candidates from a younger generation, but I’m not holding my breath.

That would be great! I guess Nikki Haley would be a good candidate. She will be 52 in 2024...
 
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Francoflier
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:15 am

It looks like turn out will be the highest in decades, if not a century.
Over half of the total votes cast in 2016 have been cast already, and we're a week from the election day.

It should probably not be that surprising that engagement would be so high this time around given the amount of political tension and anger generated in the last few years.
I personally feel that a high turnout is not going to help Trump as it will push the results towards a better representation of the general public opinion about Trump (35~40% approval), but of course it will be a bit more complex than that thanks to the EC and will depend on how successful the voter suppression efforts made by Republicans will be this year.
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tommy1808
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:20 am

Francoflier wrote:
on how successful the voter suppression efforts .


people should get into the habit of calling a spade a spade and use "Election Fraud" as the much, much more appropriate Term. Its not like they are hiding the effort is geared towards stealing elections they have lost.

But hey, the GOP didn´t stack the court with Judges with a proven willingness to rule the Presidency to a Republican with no regards to election results. Legislating from the Bench is evil, replacing 100+ Million voters from the Bench is just peachy....

best regards
Thomas
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phatfarmlines
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:46 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
on how successful the voter suppression efforts .


people should get into the habit of calling a spade a spade and use "Election Fraud" as the much, much more appropriate Term. Its not like they are hiding the effort is geared towards stealing elections they have lost.

But hey, the GOP didn´t stack the court with Judges with a proven willingness to rule the Presidency to a Republican with no regards to election results. Legislating from the Bench is evil, replacing 100+ Million voters from the Bench is just peachy....

best regards
Thomas


Does any of that matter when "faithless electors" come into play at the electoral college? Dems can call it "voter suppression", Reps can call it "election fraud", I'm willing to bet the real fraud will be a higher count of faithless electors this round.
 
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:51 pm

phatfarmlines wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
on how successful the voter suppression efforts .


people should get into the habit of calling a spade a spade and use "Election Fraud" as the much, much more appropriate Term. Its not like they are hiding the effort is geared towards stealing elections they have lost.

But hey, the GOP didn´t stack the court with Judges with a proven willingness to rule the Presidency to a Republican with no regards to election results. Legislating from the Bench is evil, replacing 100+ Million voters from the Bench is just peachy....

best regards
Thomas


Does any of that matter when "faithless electors" come into play at the electoral college? Dems can call it "voter suppression", Reps can call it "election fraud", I'm willing to bet the real fraud will be a higher count of faithless electors this round.


Do Democrats introduce legislation targeting faithless electors to prevent their votes for Trump being counted or go to the courts to force electors to be faithless? If not, there is no equivalency.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
727LOVER
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:13 pm

airtechy wrote:
Agree with all of this. I am in the "flippiest" of states .. Florida. Florida and North Carolina should have results on election night as they can count mail and early votes before Nov. 3. If they are called for Biden .. in my opinion .. it is all over but the shouting ..



FLORIDA looks iffy

https://youtu.be/JzTeqh066ek?t=244
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airtechy
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:31 pm

727LOVER wrote:
airtechy wrote:
Agree with all of this. I am in the "flippiest" of states .. Florida. Florida and North Carolina should have results on election night as they can count mail and early votes before Nov. 3. If they are called for Biden .. in my opinion .. it is all over but the shouting ..



FLORIDA looks iffy

https://youtu.be/JzTeqh066ek?t=244


Well, Florida is always iffy. Part of the problem is that Florida is a very "fluid" state meaning the voting demographics is constantly changing. This year we have the influx of people from Puerto Rico, felons (some) voting for the first time, the changing voting pattern of "The Villages" (not as Republican as they were), and how people are reacting to Governor DeSantis's handling of the pandemic. I think that the pollsters could be off in either direction. It will be interesting to read the critiques of the pollsters after the election!
 
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casinterest
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:03 pm

Well that is wierd.
Rasmussen is giving AZ to Trump, but Ohio to Biden.

Probably more to do with Rasmussen's questionable polling, but still interesting.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... t-general/

Also Florida is starting to get more Biden friendly.



Does anyone think the polls may be skewed now due to so many early voters tuning out?
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LittleFokker
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:17 am

casinterest wrote:
Does anyone think the polls may be skewed now due to so many early voters tuning out?


I don't think skewed is the right word here. It may just be that last week polling may not be as relevant as polling two weeks before. I think I heard today that the number of early or mail in votes this year is already at about 60% of 2016's total votes.

Of course there will be state to state variance on how close to the election the most relevant poll will be.

The 538 podcast hinted today that they expect a state poll from Pennsylvania to be published over the weekend, and that might give us a better idea of how relevant it is.
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casinterest
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:13 pm

LittleFokker wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Does anyone think the polls may be skewed now due to so many early voters tuning out?


I don't think skewed is the right word here. It may just be that last week polling may not be as relevant as polling two weeks before. I think I heard today that the number of early or mail in votes this year is already at about 60% of 2016's total votes.

Of course there will be state to state variance on how close to the election the most relevant poll will be.

The 538 podcast hinted today that they expect a state poll from Pennsylvania to be published over the weekend, and that might give us a better idea of how relevant it is.



I will watch over the weekend, but with the Hunter Biden story being dropped as a nothing burger, and the rising Covid Cases, Trump may have lost a lot of the weaker votes he was getting.
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:32 pm

casinterest wrote:
Well that is wierd.
Rasmussen is giving AZ to Trump, but Ohio to Biden.

Probably more to do with Rasmussen's questionable polling, but still interesting.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... t-general/

Also Florida is starting to get more Biden friendly.



Does anyone think the polls may be skewed now due to so many early voters tuning out?


My guess is that it is an issue with Rasmussen. It is worthy of note that they are the only poll to show any approval rating for 45, and that is not new, but rather has been off and on since August. Also noteworthy is the fact that they have called fewer races correctly than SurveyMonkey, who rate a D-.

I would expect a similar prognostication from Dorsife's Robert Cahaly, who is trying to stretch his 2016's 15 minutes into a few hours now. But even they are still putting AZ as Blue.

Things like McSally's unpopularity, & Cindy McCain's endorsement are not trivial in that locality, and there is no indication that AZ will go red this time.


Ohio will likely go red. With the urban areas not growing over the past decade, the state is probably going to lose its swing status over the next few elections anyway.


LittleFokker wrote:
I don't think skewed is the right word here. It may just be that last week polling may not be as relevant as polling two weeks before. I think I heard today that the number of early or mail in votes this year is already at about 60% of 2016's total votes.


Yep. It does not matter what a Poll shows if half the respondents have already voted.
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DL717
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:47 pm

I have a new prediction, and I’m sticking to this one. You can all send me Mallowmars if I’m right. With all but MI, battlegrounds are within the MOE with MI barely outside on the latest polls. Trump has the mojo. People also want to change their votes. Not good for Biden. More a forecast than a prediction. Biden needs 3% to sleep at night and he no longer has it in the key states.

House D. Duh.
Senate R. 52/48 or 51/49. Likely the later.
45% to Biden because he looks to win PA and possibly MI. 35% to Trump due to the mojo.

That said, there are two routes to a tie with AZ and NV now in play. I give 20% to the first tie since 1800. With that we all win. Biden/Pence. Trump out and Harris out. Good for both sides. Maybe even a little peace and harmony for a while. Split in the chambers. Make these jack holes work together for a change.
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winginit
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:04 pm

DL717 wrote:
I have a new prediction, and I’m sticking to this one. You can all send me Mallowmars if I’m right. With all but MI, battlegrounds are within the MOE with MI barely outside on the latest polls. Trump has the mojo. People also want to change their votes. Not good for Biden. More a forecast than a prediction. Biden needs 3% to sleep at night and he no longer has it in the key states.

House D. Duh.
Senate R. 52/48 or 51/49. Likely the later.
45% to Biden because he looks to win PA and possibly MI. 35% to Trump due to the mojo.

That said, there are two routes to a tie with AZ and NV now in play. I give 20% to the first tie since 1800. With that we all win. Biden/Pence. Trump out and Harris out. Good for both sides. Maybe even a little peace and harmony for a while. Split in the chambers. Make these jack holes work together for a change.


I'm not seeing a prediction there. Who wins what states?

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