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Aaron747
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:53 am

mke717spotter wrote:
An avalanche of polls came out today (Sunday) and its almost too much to sift through. My take is that a Trump victory isn't so far-fetched and he's definitely got a chance. While its going to be tough to come out on top in all of these states that are tight, a lot of them (Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida) have traditionally voted Republican in the past, so I think that gives Trump a bit of a boost. For instance, Obama only won North Carolina by 0.3 percentage points in his big victory in 2008, and aside from that it hasn't gone blue in a presidential election since 1976. If he can hold all of those states I previously mentioned (to me Arizona seems like the toughest of the bunch), then he would only need to spring one surprise in either Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or even in Minnesota. If he manages to take Wisconsin or Minnesota, then it comes down to the congressional districts that are up for grabs in Maine and Nebraska and there could be a tie. However, if he loses Arizona then he could still force a tie by winning Pennsylvania and the two aforementioned congressional districts.
Image

Personally, I think the main thing Biden has going for him is that he's simply an alternative to Trump. Unlike Obama, people aren't fired up about Joe. He's nice, but also an old white dude that's been in politics forever, and his bumbling verbal gaffs certainly give the impression that he just doesn't have it anymore. His campaign seemed dead in the water during the primaries until everyone else decided to drop out at the last moment to thwart Sanders. Luckily for him there's a large swathe of the population that would walk through molten lava in order to vote Trump out. However, is the anti-Trump message going to be enough? And are enough Sanders supporters going to come out and vote this time? As for Trump, he's a double-edged sword. His off-putting behavior certainly doesn't help with the middle of the road folks, but at the same time he's got his hardcore fans that come out in droves. Interestingly, following Trump's recent rally in Waukesha, Wisconsin, a campaign official claimed that 24% of the attendees didn't vote at all in 2016. Another obvious problem for Trump is the 200,000+ COVID deaths in the US, but you have to wonder if some people are starting to become numb to it at this point, especially given the situation in Europe now.


People are not ‘numb’ to the COVID issue - if anything they are sick of not having a clear plan articulated and in place, and ongoing business disruption resulting from same. This was all preventable, as evidenced by other countries (not Europe).
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PixelPilot
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:36 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:
An avalanche of polls came out today (Sunday) and its almost too much to sift through. My take is that a Trump victory isn't so far-fetched and he's definitely got a chance. While its going to be tough to come out on top in all of these states that are tight, a lot of them (Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida) have traditionally voted Republican in the past, so I think that gives Trump a bit of a boost. For instance, Obama only won North Carolina by 0.3 percentage points in his big victory in 2008, and aside from that it hasn't gone blue in a presidential election since 1976. If he can hold all of those states I previously mentioned (to me Arizona seems like the toughest of the bunch), then he would only need to spring one surprise in either Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or even in Minnesota. If he manages to take Wisconsin or Minnesota, then it comes down to the congressional districts that are up for grabs in Maine and Nebraska and there could be a tie. However, if he loses Arizona then he could still force a tie by winning Pennsylvania and the two aforementioned congressional districts.
Image

Personally, I think the main thing Biden has going for him is that he's simply an alternative to Trump. Unlike Obama, people aren't fired up about Joe. He's nice, but also an old white dude that's been in politics forever, and his bumbling verbal gaffs certainly give the impression that he just doesn't have it anymore. His campaign seemed dead in the water during the primaries until everyone else decided to drop out at the last moment to thwart Sanders. Luckily for him there's a large swathe of the population that would walk through molten lava in order to vote Trump out. However, is the anti-Trump message going to be enough? And are enough Sanders supporters going to come out and vote this time? As for Trump, he's a double-edged sword. His off-putting behavior certainly doesn't help with the middle of the road folks, but at the same time he's got his hardcore fans that come out in droves. Interestingly, following Trump's recent rally in Waukesha, Wisconsin, a campaign official claimed that 24% of the attendees didn't vote at all in 2016. Another obvious problem for Trump is the 200,000+ COVID deaths in the US, but you have to wonder if some people are starting to become numb to it at this point, especially given the situation in Europe now.


People are not ‘numb’ to the COVID issue - if anything they are sick of not having a clear plan articulated and in place, and ongoing business disruption resulting from same. This was all preventable, as evidenced by other countries (not Europe).


So which countries are those?
Mind citing sources and data?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:02 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
mke717spotter wrote:
An avalanche of polls came out today (Sunday) and its almost too much to sift through. My take is that a Trump victory isn't so far-fetched and he's definitely got a chance. While its going to be tough to come out on top in all of these states that are tight, a lot of them (Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida) have traditionally voted Republican in the past, so I think that gives Trump a bit of a boost. For instance, Obama only won North Carolina by 0.3 percentage points in his big victory in 2008, and aside from that it hasn't gone blue in a presidential election since 1976. If he can hold all of those states I previously mentioned (to me Arizona seems like the toughest of the bunch), then he would only need to spring one surprise in either Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or even in Minnesota. If he manages to take Wisconsin or Minnesota, then it comes down to the congressional districts that are up for grabs in Maine and Nebraska and there could be a tie. However, if he loses Arizona then he could still force a tie by winning Pennsylvania and the two aforementioned congressional districts.
Image

Personally, I think the main thing Biden has going for him is that he's simply an alternative to Trump. Unlike Obama, people aren't fired up about Joe. He's nice, but also an old white dude that's been in politics forever, and his bumbling verbal gaffs certainly give the impression that he just doesn't have it anymore. His campaign seemed dead in the water during the primaries until everyone else decided to drop out at the last moment to thwart Sanders. Luckily for him there's a large swathe of the population that would walk through molten lava in order to vote Trump out. However, is the anti-Trump message going to be enough? And are enough Sanders supporters going to come out and vote this time? As for Trump, he's a double-edged sword. His off-putting behavior certainly doesn't help with the middle of the road folks, but at the same time he's got his hardcore fans that come out in droves. Interestingly, following Trump's recent rally in Waukesha, Wisconsin, a campaign official claimed that 24% of the attendees didn't vote at all in 2016. Another obvious problem for Trump is the 200,000+ COVID deaths in the US, but you have to wonder if some people are starting to become numb to it at this point, especially given the situation in Europe now.


People are not ‘numb’ to the COVID issue - if anything they are sick of not having a clear plan articulated and in place, and ongoing business disruption resulting from same. This was all preventable, as evidenced by other countries (not Europe).


So which countries are those?
Mind citing sources and data?


Countries with successful mask mandates that have resulted in isolated and/or minimal community spread.

South Korea reported minimal 2nd quarter GDP loss (below 5%) and is now reporting growth:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-kore ... 1603800971

Taiwan had the least 2nd quarter GDP loss of major economies and is reporting 3.3% annualized growth

https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-shr ... 1604063439

Australia is also holding off the damage to -6% GDP loss overall. Generally western Europe and North America are far worse-off.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/ ... -led-slump
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Arion640
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:17 pm

Brit here. Is it true whatever way ohio goes the country goes?
 
NYCVIE
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:23 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Brit here. Is it true whatever way ohio goes the country goes?


Historically yes, in the last roughly 140 years they've voted for the winning candidate all but twice (JFK being the most recent miss). In my opinion, though, this time around they'll vote for Trump again and he'll go on to lose the election.
 
luckyone
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:24 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Brit here. Is it true whatever way ohio goes the country goes?

It has been since the 1964 election if I read correctly. There is speculation that due to demographic shifts that will no longer be as reliable a metric.

Aaron747 wrote:
Countries with successful mask mandates that have resulted in isolated and/or minimal community spread.

South Korea reported minimal 2nd quarter GDP loss (below 5%) and is now reporting growth:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-kore ... 1603800971

Taiwan had the least 2nd quarter GDP loss of major economies and is reporting 3.3% annualized growth

https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-shr ... 1604063439

Australia is also holding off the damage to -6% GDP loss overall. Generally western Europe and North America are far worse-off.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/ ... -led-slump

I am by no means endorsing the response of the United States leadership on this. Having said that, I think it is worth noting that the three example you cite are islands either in absolute or effective terms (nobody crosses into South Korea by land), and they don't have readily integrated land borders with their neighbors. As such, aside from having superior public health protocols, it is easier to monitor who comes in and out.
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:59 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Countries with successful mask mandates that have resulted in isolated and/or minimal community spread.

South Korea reported minimal 2nd quarter GDP loss (below 5%) and is now reporting growth:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-kore ... 1603800971

Taiwan had the least 2nd quarter GDP loss of major economies and is reporting 3.3% annualized growth

https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-shr ... 1604063439

Australia is also holding off the damage to -6% GDP loss overall. Generally western Europe and North America are far worse-off.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/ ... -led-slump

Those countries also had super strict lockdowns, and unless we get the the point where hospitals are clearly overrun and people are being left to die, I just don't think repeated, prolonged lockdowns would fly in the US. The cultural and legal norms just aren't the same.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 97061.html

"South Korea’s government has been gradually reinforcing its social distancing rules since 16 August, closing public schools, nightclubs and churches and prohibiting gatherings of more than 50 people in any one location.

But those efforts have so far failed to halt the spread."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54686812

"The state capital, Melbourne, went into lockdown 111 days ago - enforcing home confinement, travel restrictions and and closing stores and restaurants."
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
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northstardc4m
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:14 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
An avalanche of polls came out today (Sunday) and its almost too much to sift through.


Well, I did "sift through them all"... nothing has changed (stat tie= <2%, leans= 2-5%, likely= >5% ):

Last 7 polls for FL (11/01 and 11/02 release): Biden leads in 5, tied in 1 with 4% MOE, behind in one small sample and still within the MOE. Result: Lean Biden

Last 5 polls for AZ (11/01 and 11/02 release): Biden leads in 4, 1 lead bigger than MOE, tied in 1, MOE 3-4.5% on all. Result: Stat Tie

Last 7 polls for MI (11/01 and 11/02 release): Biden leads in 6, 5 leads bigger than MOE, behind in one by less than MOE. Result: Likely Biden

Last 2 polls for MN (11/02) Biden leads in both, substantially. Result: Likely Biden

Last 5 polls for WI (11/01 and 11/02 release): Biden leads all, beyond MOE in all, Result: Likely Biden

Last 12 polls for PA (11/01 and 11/02 release): Biden leads in 9, beyond MOE in 6, 3 trailing all within MOE, Result: Lean Biden

Those are the 7 major swing states this round.

Simplified for some others for Nov 1 and 2 polls:

Texas: Leaning Trump

NC: Stat Tie

GA: Stat Tie

OH: Leaning Trump

IA: Stat Tie

ME2: Leaning Biden

NE2: Likely Biden

Which if you want to plot it all out...

Biden 309ECV vs Trump 181ECV with 48ECV tied:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/782nb


Biden looks very likely to win MI and WI, flipping them from Trump in 2016.

The 2 states that matter are PA and FL. Biden doesn't actually need either, but it's much easier if he gets one. Trump needs both if Biden flips WI and MI. If Biden wins 2016's blue states+MI and WI (the most likely scenario) Trump has exactly ONE combination of in play states to win...

TX+PA+FL+OH+AZ+GA+NC

If Trump loses one of those, any one of those, Biden wins.

As of this morning the polls have PA and FL are as i said above, are leaning Biden.

However, PA could be very slow to release a final tally as they can't count votes before the polls close on the 3rd, so there might be a very long breath holding... and hopefully nothing worse than that.

IB4 "blah blah blarg polls don't matter..." I don't care if that's your opinion, I have no horse in the race, I post simply as additional information.
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
 
N867DA
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:18 pm

We'll have a great indicator of the race fairly early. Florida is allowed to count early votes and mail-votes before the polls close, and are generally fast tabulating in-person votes. When counties start turning out in-person counts after 7:30 ET, we'll know.
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casinterest
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:32 pm

N867DA wrote:
We'll have a great indicator of the race fairly early. Florida is allowed to count early votes and mail-votes before the polls close, and are generally fast tabulating in-person votes. When counties start turning out in-person counts after 7:30 ET, we'll know.



Uhhh Florida 2000 would like to have a word with you :)

It will be interesting
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tmu101
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:59 pm

Is it me or has news about Pence been quiet all of a sudden? You hear if Trump Biden Harris going everywhere and criss-crossing states like PA to campaign but it seems like it has been quiet about Pence esp. his campaign activities the last week.
 
luckyone
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:02 pm

tmu101 wrote:
Is it me or has news about Pence been quiet all of a sudden? You hear if Trump Biden Harris going everywhere and criss-crossing states like PA to campaign but it seems like it has been quiet about Pence esp. his campaign activities the last week.

Any Vice President with a lick of sense during a reelection will make sure they have a contingency.
 
tmu101
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:28 am

luckyone wrote:
tmu101 wrote:
Is it me or has news about Pence been quiet all of a sudden? You hear if Trump Biden Harris going everywhere and criss-crossing states like PA to campaign but it seems like it has been quiet about Pence esp. his campaign activities the last week.

Any Vice President with a lick of sense during a reelection will make sure they have a contingency.


I was wondering if maybe he caught COVID-19 since it was running rampant through everyone in his office and he came down with it, and the campaign is doing their darndest to keep it under wraps. :scratchchin:
 
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Aaron747
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:36 am

tmu101 wrote:
luckyone wrote:
tmu101 wrote:
Is it me or has news about Pence been quiet all of a sudden? You hear if Trump Biden Harris going everywhere and criss-crossing states like PA to campaign but it seems like it has been quiet about Pence esp. his campaign activities the last week.

Any Vice President with a lick of sense during a reelection will make sure they have a contingency.


I was wondering if maybe he caught COVID-19 since it was running rampant through everyone in his office and he came down with it, and the campaign is doing their darndest to keep it under wraps. :scratchchin:


I was wondering this too - he was supposed to be aggressively on the stump this weekend.
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yonahleung
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:21 am

mke717spotter wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Countries with successful mask mandates that have resulted in isolated and/or minimal community spread.

South Korea reported minimal 2nd quarter GDP loss (below 5%) and is now reporting growth:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-kore ... 1603800971

Taiwan had the least 2nd quarter GDP loss of major economies and is reporting 3.3% annualized growth

https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-shr ... 1604063439

Australia is also holding off the damage to -6% GDP loss overall. Generally western Europe and North America are far worse-off.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/ ... -led-slump

Those countries also had super strict lockdowns, and unless we get the the point where hospitals are clearly overrun and people are being left to die, I just don't think repeated, prolonged lockdowns would fly in the US. The cultural and legal norms just aren't the same.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 97061.html

"South Korea’s government has been gradually reinforcing its social distancing rules since 16 August, closing public schools, nightclubs and churches and prohibiting gatherings of more than 50 people in any one location.

But those efforts have so far failed to halt the spread."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54686812

"The state capital, Melbourne, went into lockdown 111 days ago - enforcing home confinement, travel restrictions and and closing stores and restaurants."

Taiwan actually has (and had) no lockdowns at any point in time. It only imposed super strict entry controls and contact tracing once they knew something went awry in Wuhan (allegedly their Public Health Head sensed something went south in China from a Taiwanese online forum). People in Taiwan seldom wears a mask now and they have all the funny gatherings now.

Macau did a similar thing and currently has no active Covid cases for around 3 months. Everyone arriving in Macau is subject to 14 days of mandatory quarantine in a hotel with no exemptions.

In simple terms, whoever believed WHO's shit of no border control is necessary got screwed big time.
 
NIKV69
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:07 am

Well campaigns are over except for the crying. I am sticking with my prediction. Trump wins 275-263, after everyone thinking PA is the key it is meaningless as MI goes Trump along with OH, FL and NC.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:15 am

My prediction on election day (ok, it is only 1am ET):

Biden win TX, and thus, render all other swing states irrelevant.
 
M564038
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:13 am

Reading 538’s final prediction for the election this year, and compare it to 2016’s, do make me more optimistic on behalf of the planet!

2016: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fi ... p-clinton/

2020: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fi ... -forecast/
 
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Aaron747
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:51 pm

Excellent take on the election here from former PA governor and first DHS secretary, Tom Ridge:

Donald Trump has proven over these last four years he is incapable of such leadership. It is not within him. He lacks the empathy, integrity, intellect, and maturity to lead. He sows division along political, racial, and religious lines. And he routinely dismisses the opinions of experts who know far more about the subject at hand than he does — intelligence, military, and public health. Our country has paid dearly in lives lost, social unrest, economic hardship, and our standing in the world.

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/commen ... 00927.html

The reemergence of a truly patriotic Republican coalition can't come soon enough.
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casinterest
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:36 pm

M564038 wrote:
Reading 538’s final prediction for the election this year, and compare it to 2016’s, do make me more optimistic on behalf of the planet!

2016: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fi ... p-clinton/

2020: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fi ... -forecast/



Read 2020 to the table at
How a 2016-sized polling error would change our forecast
Biden’s projected margin of victory or defeat in the most competitive states



That table seems to give optimism. Coupled with the articles I have read where the polls have mostly been shifted to compensate the miss in older white males in 2016.

The votes still need to be made and counted though
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
N867DA
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:46 pm

Well, betting odds are still hovering at about 64% for Biden. I guess when we start seeing exit votes they'll change. If exit votes are 50-50 that would be a terrific sign for Biden.

Still holding my breath and expecting a Trump win to avoid disappointment. He'll eke it out in a handful of Midwestern counties--a fitting event for 2020.
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you
 
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lugie
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:18 pm

N867DA wrote:
We'll have a great indicator of the race fairly early. Florida is allowed to count early votes and mail-votes before the polls close, and are generally fast tabulating in-person votes. When counties start turning out in-person counts after 7:30 ET, we'll know.


I've been thinking about that too. Apparently NC is also a rather fast-counting state where it's allowed to count early ballots before election day. Polls in NC close at 7:30pm Eastern, so I'd expect first results from there around 8-8:30pm Eastern. On this morning's episode of the 538 politics podcast they said that unless it's a very tight race, FL might be called as early as 8:00pm.

If Biden is able to carry either (or both) of those states tonight, he'll almost certainly win the election. Firstly, because if Trump loses FL his paths to 270 narrow by a lot. Moreover, both NC and FL are considered more baseline conservative than some of the other swing states like PA, MI, WI, so a Biden win in NC and/or FL would hint at a very pro-Democrat national environment and mean that because of statistical correlation his odds of winning those Midwestern states and thus the presidency would grow exponentially:

According to this super interesting tool which analyzes the overall odds of winning the presidency contingent on winning certain battlegrounds, Biden's chances of clinching the WH go up to >99% if he wins NC, meanwhile if Trump wins NC Biden's chances go down from the current 89% to 71%.
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
FRA STR HAM TXL MUC ZRH ACE BRU BLL DUB MAN ARN MAD OPO LIS FNC AMS PHL RDU LGA CLT EWR ORD ATL SFO MDW IAD YYZ SJO PTY
 
luckyone
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Re: US Presidential Election Swing State Predictions

Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:31 pm

The President reportedly made the comment "Winning is easy. Losing is never easy." I don't know how much to read into that, or whether to actually take anything away from it. It does, however, tell us that he knows there is the possibility of losing, which is very unusual for this President and his usual public persona of bravada.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 129648002/

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