mke717spotter wrote:An avalanche of polls came out today (Sunday) and its almost too much to sift through. My take is that a Trump victory isn't so far-fetched and he's definitely got a chance. While its going to be tough to come out on top in all of these states that are tight, a lot of them (Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida) have traditionally voted Republican in the past, so I think that gives Trump a bit of a boost. For instance, Obama only won North Carolina by 0.3 percentage points in his big victory in 2008, and aside from that it hasn't gone blue in a presidential election since 1976. If he can hold all of those states I previously mentioned (to me Arizona seems like the toughest of the bunch), then he would only need to spring one surprise in either Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or even in Minnesota. If he manages to take Wisconsin or Minnesota, then it comes down to the congressional districts that are up for grabs in Maine and Nebraska and there could be a tie. However, if he loses Arizona then he could still force a tie by winning Pennsylvania and the two aforementioned congressional districts.
Personally, I think the main thing Biden has going for him is that he's simply an alternative to Trump. Unlike Obama, people aren't fired up about Joe. He's nice, but also an old white dude that's been in politics forever, and his bumbling verbal gaffs certainly give the impression that he just doesn't have it anymore. His campaign seemed dead in the water during the primaries until everyone else decided to drop out at the last moment to thwart Sanders. Luckily for him there's a large swathe of the population that would walk through molten lava in order to vote Trump out. However, is the anti-Trump message going to be enough? And are enough Sanders supporters going to come out and vote this time? As for Trump, he's a double-edged sword. His off-putting behavior certainly doesn't help with the middle of the road folks, but at the same time he's got his hardcore fans that come out in droves. Interestingly, following Trump's recent rally in Waukesha, Wisconsin, a campaign official claimed that 24% of the attendees didn't vote at all in 2016. Another obvious problem for Trump is the 200,000+ COVID deaths in the US, but you have to wonder if some people are starting to become numb to it at this point, especially given the situation in Europe now.
People are not ‘numb’ to the COVID issue - if anything they are sick of not having a clear plan articulated and in place, and ongoing business disruption resulting from same. This was all preventable, as evidenced by other countries (not Europe).