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noviorbis77
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:25 pm

I am completely indifferent.

But if I was to bet, I’d bet on Trump.
 
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seb146
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:29 pm

I think the violence will ramp up from the MAGA members when they see the writing on the wall they will lose. Look at all the violence and intimidation going on now from them all across the country. I think they know they are losing and will lose even bigger which is why they are resorting to violence and intimidation. To keep people from voting for Biden.
 
NIKV69
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:55 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
15 out of 20 top threads on a.net will no longer be about Trump and US relations. I hope...


One can only wish.
 
marcelh
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:02 pm

DL717 wrote:
Trump will halt the election and finally bring out the brown shirts and seize control of the Republic forever!!!!

Well, that’s what some people think will happen. But they’re kind of stupid.

Sticking to my guns. 40% chance to both and 20% to a tie and mayhem.

What “kind of stupid”? Trump is already the wet dream of the US brown shirts....
 
2eng2efficient
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:06 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Brit here. Is it true whatever way ohio goes the country goes?


Ohioan here.

Ohio has been the most accurate bellweather state in recent times, going the same way as the winning party every election since 1964.

There is reason to believe that 2020 may break the precedent. Ohio shifted decisively to Trump in 2016 because of its rust belt characteristics. The Biden campaign was actually planning on avoiding major ad spend in Ohio for 2020, and has only had a large media presence here in the last six weeks, when it became clear the state was still in contention. Nevertheless I expect Trump will carry Ohio narrowly.

Bellweather states come and go. It used to be Maine, until the mid-1930s.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_Main ... the_nation
 
717atOGG
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:27 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Nothing. If the election is close enough that it comes down to a state like Pennsylvania, then the final result may not be known until Friday since they can't start counting mail in votes until election day.

Agreed. Most of the Rust Belt swing states (particularly MI/WI/PA) will still count ballots as long as they're postmarked by Election Day, so unless it's a blowout for one particular candidate we most likely won't hear anything from them that night.

That being said, Florida is a big swing state that closes polls relatively early in the evening and counts votes quickly, so depending on which way it goes it'll be a good weathervane to show how things will turn out (and for reference, Biden has held a small but persistent polling lead, albeit one within the MOE). If FL goes for Biden he's virtually guaranteed to win the election since the Rust Belt swing states have consistently been polling to the left of FL so they'll eventually go blue too, and AZ and NC have similar polling leads to FL so he's well-poised to pick up one or both of those. On the other hand, if Trump picks up FL then AZ and NC (especially the latter) are more or less goners for Biden, who could still possibly eke out victories in WI/MI/PA and get to 270 but it'd be a nail-biter either way.
 
aeromoe
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:40 pm

Sunrise...then moonset from the previous day's moonrise. Then eventually a sunset. A waning gibbous moonrise a few hours after sunset.
 
Ken777
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:57 pm

Today Trump said that as soon as the polls close his lawyers are going into action.

First that tells me that Trump believes he will loose, especially if the In person voting puts him down by a lot.

Trump Brown Shirts will be out with their assault weapons. If they start shooting then it's going to be time for SWAT shooters to go for head shots. I have zero sympathy for those carrying assault weapons. If they die they die.

A Trump loss will also get various state AGs heading to Grand Juries for Indictments. Of at least new Indictments - there are probably more than a few sealed indictments waiting for Trump in various AG safes.

Actually trump will n need any free csh to pay criminal and tax attorney fees (the smarter ones will want significant cash up front) so there may Abe no money for challenging various state results. If the national GOP doesn't pick up that cost Trump needs to start packing to move to Florida. :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:17 pm

Nov 3: Biden wins
Nov 4: relations with China suspiciously deteriorate enough to call for a nuclear strike.
Nov 5: "Sleepy Joe can't handle the Chinese like I did"
 
A101
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:33 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
I am completely indifferent.

But if I was to bet, I’d bet on Trump.



I don’t bet on elections, but I see the betting market in the UK has Biden as the favourite to win
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:57 pm

Ken777 wrote:

Trump Brown Shirts will be out with their assault weapons. If they start shooting then it's going to be time for SWAT shooters to go for head shots. I have zero sympathy for those carrying assault weapons.


With the way the police are now in America it’s far more likely the cops will be on the same side as the Trump supporting militia loons, both shooting into a crowd of peaceful protesters when Trump’s stacked Supreme Court throws out mail in votes to hand him the election.
 
art
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:33 pm

A101 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
I am completely indifferent.

But if I was to bet, I’d bet on Trump.



I don’t bet on elections, but I see the betting market in the UK has Biden as the favourite to win


Yes, very much the favourite.

Current odds 2330 GMT:

Biden about 2 to 1 on (bet £1 on him, receive £1.50 if he wins)
Trump about 2 to 1 against (bet £1 on him, receive £3 if he wins)

I have bets on this election. Could be months before I find out if I have won or lost, couldn't it?
 
rfields5421
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:29 am

art wrote:
I have bets on this election. Could be months before I find out if I have won or lost, couldn't it?


No.

All US Presidential elections are officially decided in January when the electoral ballots are opened, counted and tabulated in the Congress.

Anything between that day and election day is just procedure. If no candidate wins the necessary number of votes, the election goes to the House of Representatives. Each state gets ONE vote. A winner will be declared, and that is the end of the process. No courts, no appeals, no recounts. Finished.

There will not be a tie because the amendment that gives the voters of the District of Columbia three electoral votes means there will be 51 votes cast in a House election.;


On Jan 20, 2021 at noon local time in Washington DC, the incoming President will take his oath of office for the term Jan 20, 2021 - Jan 20, 2025. Whether it is Trump or Biden.


Remember we went through this uncertainty in 2000. As a few people and Bill Clinton said, it is amazing how many people apparently never took civics or government classes in high school.
 
art
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:51 am

Thanks for the info, The basic rule for my bets:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election.


That could take weeks to determine, couldn't it, if the incumbent and/or his party mount legal challenges to the election results in state courts, federal courts, state appeal courts, federal appeal courts, supreme court.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:55 am

I have been assuming Joe Biden will win this.

And yet, he isn't doing much better than Clinton did in 2016. He is moderately ahead in the polls, just like Clinton was in 2016. I don't know where the polls have applied correction factor versus what they said in 2016. If they have not, it suggests Trump is within striking distance again. And this is after running a very poor campaign.
 
M564038
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:00 am

They have corrected quite a bit, especially the amount of less educated peiole they poll.

There is no law of nature saying the polling error margins would tip in his direction again this time either way, though.

LCDFlight wrote:
I have been assuming Joe Biden will win this.

And yet, he isn't doing much better than Clinton did in 2016. He is moderately ahead in the polls, just like Clinton was in 2016. I don't know where the polls have applied correction factor versus what they said in 2016. If they have not, it suggests Trump is within striking distance again. And this is after running a very poor campaign.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:05 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Do you have a link to that delay message from the WH?


Catherine Rampell’s piece the other day has some incredible detail on the administrative changes, even to family visas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... rc404=true
 
TangoandCash
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:24 am

Two things will happen on Nov. 4:
1. Trump will declare himself the winner. I figure someone will restrain him from doing so until the polls close on the West Coast/Alaska/Hawaii, so it will be after midnight Eastern time.
2. The lawyers will begin arguing over which votes cast on Nov. 3 (and earlier) should be counted to determine if #1 is actually true.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:34 am

Even if Biden wins, the Senate would have to turn Democratic for the Biden team to get many of their proposals through.
 
717atOGG
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:16 am

dfwjim1 wrote:
Even if Biden wins, the Senate would have to turn Democratic for the Biden team to get many of their proposals through.

For what it's worth, they're well-poised to do so with a 74% chance according to FiveThirtyEight.
 
art
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:17 am

TangoandCash wrote:
Two things will happen on Nov. 4:
1. Trump will declare himself the winner. I figure someone will restrain him from doing so until the polls close on the West Coast/Alaska/Hawaii, so it will be after midnight Eastern time.
2. The lawyers will begin arguing over which votes cast on Nov. 3 (and earlier) should be counted to determine if #1 is actually true.


I think the probability of you being right is high. Sadly - I like the idea of the democratic process being respected tn democracies.
 
flyflewflown
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:53 am

Whoever wins will cause some short-term effects but longer term it is unlikely to matter. Wealth&income distribution matters more...
https://connectrandomdots.blogspot.com/ ... field.html
FFF
 
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Aaron747
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:20 am

flyflewflown wrote:
Whoever wins will cause some short-term effects but longer term it is unlikely to matter. Wealth&income distribution matters more...
https://connectrandomdots.blogspot.com/ ... field.html
FFF


Absolutely. There is no turning back from a system where increased concentration of assets underpins all forms of power. Capitalism is great, but unthrottled can have the same overall effect on mobility as command economies do.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:28 am

I think the best case scenario liberals can hope for is to capture the Senate, retain the House, but lose the presidency. With a House and Senate in opposition, Trump becomes completely neutralized (either play nice and compromise, or self destruct). And if Democrats play it smart, the 2022 map for Senate bodes very well for them since the 2016 Senators would be up for election, some of which simply had no reason to retain their seats (MO's Blunt, WI's Johnson, and FL's Rubio are examples). And with NC's Burr, PA's Toomey (both confirmed), and IA's Grassley (potentially) retiring, there's definitely a lot more seats to go on offense rather than be in the White House and defend CO, NV, and NH without being able to seal the deal in the GOP-held states.
 
LittleFokker
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:38 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
I think the best case scenario liberals can hope for is to capture the Senate, retain the House, but lose the presidency. With a House and Senate in opposition, Trump becomes completely neutralized (either play nice and compromise, or self destruct). And if Democrats play it smart, the 2022 map for Senate bodes very well for them since the 2016 Senators would be up for election, some of which simply had no reason to retain their seats (MO's Blunt, WI's Johnson, and FL's Rubio are examples). And with NC's Burr, PA's Toomey (both confirmed), and IA's Grassley (potentially) retiring, there's definitely a lot more seats to go on offense rather than be in the White House and defend CO, NV, and NH without being able to seal the deal in the GOP-held states.


Even with controlling the legislature, Trump still being in the White House is still bad for America. Foreign relations will still be trash, he will still be a whiny little bitch on Twitter, and Pence would still be a tiebreaking vote in the Senate if Manchin or Sinema decide to get stupid. We need the trifecta, period. It's our only chance of getting things passed.
 
art
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:03 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
I think the best case scenario liberals can hope for is to capture the Senate, retain the House, but lose the presidency.


I would have thought that the best case scenario liberals can hope for is to capture the presidency, given that Biden is apparently in the lead in the presidential race according to current poll results.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:08 am

LittleFokker wrote:
We need the trifecta, period. It's our only chance of getting things passed.

Here's my reasoning for only Congress.

Suppose the trifecta happens and a Democrat Senate is sworn in, but only with 51-49 in favor of Democrats. You'll be able to ram through nominations just like the GOP (they'd be powerless). But for any major legislation, the filibuster will prove to be the biggest hurdle. With all 49 Rs likely united against abolishing the filibuster (their last tool to slow/sabotage a Biden administration), you only need 1 Democrat to defect to then put Kamala on the spot (she has said she'd abolish it, but it's easier to say it than actually doing it); get 2 Democrats, and it's game over.

So you'll be stuck with an administration that cannot get anything done, except through reconciliation and a sunset rule. No votes on voting/civil rights, gun control, Covid relief, etc. Come the 2022 midterms, the usual backlash against the incumbent will likely revert control of the Senate and (maybe) the House to Republicans, which means no more judges confirmed (I mean, come on...do you really think Republicans will allow Biden to continue filling up vacancies if the 2024 elections are around the corner?), DEFINITELY no votes on civil issues and other things. Biden will be a lame-duck president until he goes to the 2024 election, where voters will either recognize that he's a good candidate and reelect him, he retires, or they decide to bring in a GOP rising star and vote him out.

Now, let's say Trump and Pence are the ones in office instead and we have split government. Trump nominees will have to be palatable to Democrats (to show how it's done, they can have the hearings and then vote down the nomination). Just like Republicans attempted time and time again to repeal the ACA, Democrats in Congress can pass bills to send to Trump who will likely veto them, putting him on the spot for issues (Covid relief, minimum wage increases, etc.). The 2022 map is a bit of a repeat of the 2020 map: more GOP seats than Democrat seats (a big chunk which are in safe blue states vs GOP seats in purple states). Both the House and Senate majorities can be expanded/padded significantly in preparation for the 2024 election where Trump fatigue could almost certainly bring in a Democrat to office (and expand the 2018 Senate map (FL and MO look like ripe targets) and helping Democrats retain/win governorships and legislatures across the country). Such a Democrat would count with a healthy margin to enact their agenda (affording defections from some members but still maintaining a decisive vote margin in both chambers), with 2025 and 2026 being years where lots more can be done before a midterm election reduces those majorities.
 
LittleFokker
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:05 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
LittleFokker wrote:
We need the trifecta, period. It's our only chance of getting things passed.

Here's my reasoning for only Congress


There's forward thinking, and then there's what you wrote. I don't think we can afford to play the long game trying to set up '22 and '24. Our country is in crisis, we are being led by a despot who views himself as equals with other powerful dictators in history. Letting him run continue to run the Executive Branch is going to be terrible for our allies. And think of all the shitty people Trump has allowed to have an official government title...we can't afford 4 more years of Barr, DeVos, Mnuchin, and Jared running our nation into the ground.

In normal times, thinking about future elections has value, but we are not in normal times. America is hemorrhaging and we need Biden and a Democratic congress to at least come up with a half assed tourniquet.
 
flyguy89
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:41 am

Aaron747 wrote:
flyflewflown wrote:
Whoever wins will cause some short-term effects but longer term it is unlikely to matter. Wealth&income distribution matters more...
https://connectrandomdots.blogspot.com/ ... field.html
FFF


Absolutely. There is no turning back from a system where increased concentration of assets underpins all forms of power. Capitalism is great, but unthrottled can have the same overall effect on mobility as command economies do.

I don't know on what is based this notion that the US has "unthrottled" capitalism. In many ways the US is less economically free than the Nordic paradises lionized so often by the left in the US. Loose monetary policy and low interest rates have done much more to fuel wealth inequality than anything in the natural marketplace.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:25 am

Can the US President call for a new election? Is there any history of that in the US ?
 
noviorbis77
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:06 pm

A101 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
I am completely indifferent.

But if I was to bet, I’d bet on Trump.



I don’t bet on elections, but I see the betting market in the UK has Biden as the favourite to win


They had Hilary as favourite last time and I won quite a few quid betting on Trump.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:13 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
flyflewflown wrote:
Whoever wins will cause some short-term effects but longer term it is unlikely to matter. Wealth&income distribution matters more...
https://connectrandomdots.blogspot.com/ ... field.html
FFF


Absolutely. There is no turning back from a system where increased concentration of assets underpins all forms of power. Capitalism is great, but unthrottled can have the same overall effect on mobility as command economies do.

I don't know on what is based this notion that the US has "unthrottled" capitalism. In many ways the US is less economically free than the Nordic paradises lionized so often by the left in the US. Loose monetary policy and low interest rates have done much more to fuel wealth inequality than anything in the natural marketplace.


Those are important issues, but you're not casting a wide enough net. As we all know, the marketplace is not so 'natural' for starters - corporate welfare tends to benefit the largest entities, to the point where some of them have been liable for serious crimes where key players avoid jailtime or get reduced sentences. Middle class people who commit fraud generally receive more serious and permanent penalties, just as an example. Executives contractually receive large packages even in cases where they fail, whereas regular employees get layoffs. With money as a finite resource, all of these situations extend negative downside effects for those not participating in the highest concentrations of assets.
 
tommy1808
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:30 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
corporate welfare tends to benefit the largest entities, to the point where some of them have been liable for serious crimes where key players avoid jailtime or get reduced sentences.


or those companies being "people" for the purpose of pouring money into politics, but not when they commit crimes.... whats the problem with forfeiting five years of profits where a real person would spend those years in prison? Or seize all shares and sell them off if a cooperation murdered someone....

best regards
Thomas
 
rfields5421
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:47 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Can the US President call for a new election? Is there any history of that in the US ?


No

The four year term is set in stone so to speak in the US Constitution.

The date of the election and the dates of the Electorial College members being certified, the date of Electorial College member voting, the date of the Congress counting the votes are all set by federal law to comply with the dates set in the Constitution, and an amendment.

The President has no 'power' related to the actual vote, when it is held or not holding it.

Some people called earlier this year to postpone the election due to Covid. That could only be done by the Congress, not the President. And even if the election date were postponed, the Constitution requires that a new President be selected in early January by the Congress. Donald J. Trump's term as US President ends at noon Washington DC time on Jan 20, 2021.

Now, he could be elected to a new term starting at the same time. Or if he is defeated, he can run for one additional term later.

It takes a very complicated process and the agreement votes of 38 states to make a change to the US Constitution.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:49 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
Can the US President call for a new election? Is there any history of that in the US ?


No

The four year term is set in stone so to speak in the US Constitution.

The date of the election and the dates of the Electorial College members being certified, the date of Electorial College member voting, the date of the Congress counting the votes are all set by federal law to comply with the dates set in the Constitution, and an amendment.

The President has no 'power' related to the actual vote, when it is held or not holding it.

Some people called earlier this year to postpone the election due to Covid. That could only be done by the Congress, not the President. And even if the election date were postponed, the Constitution requires that a new President be selected in early January by the Congress. Donald J. Trump's term as US President ends at noon Washington DC time on Jan 20, 2021.

Now, he could be elected to a new term starting at the same time. Or if he is defeated, he can run for one additional term later.

It takes a very complicated process and the agreement votes of 38 states to make a change to the US Constitution.


This is a great feature of our system as opposed to many parliamentary systems where the PM can call a snap election whenever they feel their coalition is at risk.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tommy1808
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:54 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:
Mortyman wrote:
Can the US President call for a new election? Is there any history of that in the US ?


No

The four year term is set in stone so to speak in the US Constitution.

The date of the election and the dates of the Electorial College members being certified, the date of Electorial College member voting, the date of the Congress counting the votes are all set by federal law to comply with the dates set in the Constitution, and an amendment.

The President has no 'power' related to the actual vote, when it is held or not holding it.

Some people called earlier this year to postpone the election due to Covid. That could only be done by the Congress, not the President. And even if the election date were postponed, the Constitution requires that a new President be selected in early January by the Congress. Donald J. Trump's term as US President ends at noon Washington DC time on Jan 20, 2021.

Now, he could be elected to a new term starting at the same time. Or if he is defeated, he can run for one additional term later.

It takes a very complicated process and the agreement votes of 38 states to make a change to the US Constitution.


This is a great feature of our system as opposed to parliamentary systems where the PM can call a snap election whenever they feel their coalition is at risk.


that is not true for all parliamentary systems as it is just a common practice, but not a feature.

best regards
Thomas
 
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Aaron747
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:09 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:

No

The four year term is set in stone so to speak in the US Constitution.

The date of the election and the dates of the Electorial College members being certified, the date of Electorial College member voting, the date of the Congress counting the votes are all set by federal law to comply with the dates set in the Constitution, and an amendment.

The President has no 'power' related to the actual vote, when it is held or not holding it.

Some people called earlier this year to postpone the election due to Covid. That could only be done by the Congress, not the President. And even if the election date were postponed, the Constitution requires that a new President be selected in early January by the Congress. Donald J. Trump's term as US President ends at noon Washington DC time on Jan 20, 2021.

Now, he could be elected to a new term starting at the same time. Or if he is defeated, he can run for one additional term later.

It takes a very complicated process and the agreement votes of 38 states to make a change to the US Constitution.


This is a great feature of our system as opposed to parliamentary systems where the PM can call a snap election whenever they feel their coalition is at risk.


that is not true for all parliamentary systems as it is just a common practice, but not a feature.

best regards
Thomas


Thanks, I stand corrected. Post updated for accuracy.
 
2eng2efficient
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:18 pm

At the end of the day, I believe the Constitution of the U.S. has adequate safeguards to prevent a situation where one candidate clearly lost but can somehow retain power through legal chicanery.

In a close election, those constitutional mechanics may become tested. Accordingly, I hope the result is decisive.
 
rfields5421
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:29 pm

If Donald Trump loses this election, he will be perfectly positioned to spend the rest of his life as a polarizing figure in the public eye. Ranting and raving about how the United States is a broken lawless country with no morals.

If he wins, he actually has to find a way to do something, or he goes down in history as a colossal failure.

My opinion is that Donald Trump is much more concerned about his image and his historical role than anything else.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:32 pm

Very funny comment by President Trump: „I think we‘ll have victory... but only when there’s victory“ :shock: :shock: :shock:

Source: ntv.de and I even checked the original source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... ox-friends

... although I had difficulties to understand him. He sounds very exhausted...
 
art
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:37 pm

rfields5421 wrote:

It takes a very complicated process and the agreement votes of 38 states to make a change to the US Constitution.


I know hardly a thing about the American constitution whereas you clearly do. Out of curiosity, why 38 states? I imagine there were 38 states at the time the procedures were devised. Please correct me if wrong.
 
bennett123
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:38 pm

Aaron747

However, having a fixed term presidency with non matching terms for congress creates the risk of a lame duck presidency even in the first term.

The second term is always viewed as lame duck.

The ultimate cause, is that right or wrong the founding fathers viewed a weak government as no bad thing.
 
mikesbucky
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:56 pm

rfields5421 wrote:

It takes a very complicated process and the agreement votes of 38 states to make a change to the US Constitution.


I know hardly a thing about the American constitution whereas you clearly do. Out of curiosity, why 38 states? I imagine there were 38 states at the time the procedures were devised. Please correct me if wrong.

The US constitution states it takes three quarters of the states to ratify an amendment. Since there are currently 50 states, 3/4 is 38. If the number of states increased, that number would go up proportionally.
 
N867DA
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:57 pm

art wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:

It takes a very complicated process and the agreement votes of 38 states to make a change to the US Constitution.


I know hardly a thing about the American constitution whereas you clearly do. Out of curiosity, why 38 states? I imagine there were 38 states at the time the procedures were devised. Please correct me if wrong.


It requires approval from 2/3rds of the states. There are 50 states now, so 38 have to approve.

If America had a parliamentary government we would see a lot more third (erm, other) party gains and coalition-building. If current House seats were mapped to ridings and assigned an MP (as in Canada) the GOP would have to very quickly reconsider many of its positions. I'm imagining the Calexit Party kind of but not really backing the Democrats--ha! And a Free Texas party.
 
mikesbucky
Posts: 64
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:17 am

Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:04 pm

N867DA wrote:
art wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:

It takes a very complicated process and the agreement votes of 38 states to make a change to the US Constitution.


I know hardly a thing about the American constitution whereas you clearly do. Out of curiosity, why 38 states? I imagine there were 38 states at the time the procedures were devised. Please correct me if wrong.


It requires approval from 2/3rds of the states. There are 50 states now, so 38 have to approve.

If America had a parliamentary government we would see a lot more third (erm, other) party gains and coalition-building. If current House seats were mapped to ridings and assigned an MP (as in Canada) the GOP would have to very quickly reconsider many of its positions. I'm imagining the Calexit Party kind of but not really backing the Democrats--ha! And a Free Texas party.


It takes 2/3rds vote of congress or 2/3rds vote of state conventions to propose an amendment (Currently 33 states). It takes 3/4ers of state legislatures or state conventions to ratify (Currently 38).
 
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N14AZ
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:17 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
My opinion is that Donald Trump is much more concerned about his image and his historical role than anything else.

He shouldn’t be too concerned, even if he loses today. I am sure he will have a role in future history books, something like „the election of Trump in 2016 showed the political establishment the importance of not losing contact with the ordinary people“ :old:
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:21 pm

Same as what happened on 11/4/2016. Four more years of bickering, whining and complaining Doesn't matter who wins.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14662
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:36 pm

N14AZ wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:
My opinion is that Donald Trump is much more concerned about his image and his historical role than anything else.

He shouldn’t be too concerned, even if he loses today. I am sure he will have a role in future history books, something like „the election of Trump in 2016 showed the political establishment the importance of not losing contact with the ordinary people“ :old:


Or "The 2016 to 2020 Trump presidency showed that any reliance on traditions, norms, institutions and laws without effective enforcement mechanisms is futile." ... not that the lesson would be News globally.

Best regards
Thomas
 
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ArcticSEA
Posts: 371
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Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:40 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Doesn't matter who wins.

It may not matter to you. But for some, it certainly does.
I am a veteran, a gay one. It mattered to me that Obama won in 2008/2012, and that he eliminated Don't Ask, Don't Tell.
Also as a gay man, it mattered to me that Obama won in 2008/2012 and appointed judges to the courts to finally make gay marriage the law of the land.
Look around you outside of your bubble. It matters.
 
N867DA
Posts: 1371
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 12:53 am

Re: So....What's going to happen November 4?

Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:53 pm

mikesbucky wrote:
N867DA wrote:
art wrote:

I know hardly a thing about the American constitution whereas you clearly do. Out of curiosity, why 38 states? I imagine there were 38 states at the time the procedures were devised. Please correct me if wrong.


It requires approval from 2/3rds of the states. There are 50 states now, so 38 have to approve.

If America had a parliamentary government we would see a lot more third (erm, other) party gains and coalition-building. If current House seats were mapped to ridings and assigned an MP (as in Canada) the GOP would have to very quickly reconsider many of its positions. I'm imagining the Calexit Party kind of but not really backing the Democrats--ha! And a Free Texas party.


It takes 2/3rds vote of congress or 2/3rds vote of state conventions to propose an amendment (Currently 33 states). It takes 3/4ers of state legislatures or state conventions to ratify (Currently 38).



Well chalk this up to me being confidently incorrect. Thank you for the knowledge.

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