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Aesma
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:17 pm

Redd wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Texas is win for the GOP, but the trend is continuing to whittle away the GOP margins.


24 hours ago the polls were predicting (propagating) a landslide victory for Biden. Even if Trump loses, this should be a bit of a wake-up call for Americans.


That you need electoral reform ? And I'm not even talking about the electoral college necessarily, but for starters why not have the same rules everywhere regarding all the sticking points in this election : how to vote, who can vote, how the votes are counted and when, etc. ? No gerrymandering should also be a no brainer. And my pet peeve, but it's because I see its effect in my country, drastically limiting the money spent on elections : people get all the information they need, without being harrassed by politics, without campaigns lasting months and years, small fringe candidates are heard...
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airtechy
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:17 pm

I also think that the pollsters should move out of California and park themselves in the 70% red states to get a better feel for the "uneducated white vote" or find another occupation.
 
winginit
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:18 pm

airtechy wrote:
To be honest, I am now more worried about Nevada. Close and they won't release any more vote counts until Thursday.


There’s no need to be. The margin is thin now yes, but an overwhelming percentage of the state is in Clark County, which is only 72% in and showing +7 for Biden. That will easily offset the outstanding rural vote and then some.

Of course if Biden wins PA or GA Nevada doesn’t matter, and he’s looking on track to win PA at present.
 
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c933103
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:22 pm

Aesma wrote:
Redd wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Texas is win for the GOP, but the trend is continuing to whittle away the GOP margins.


24 hours ago the polls were predicting (propagating) a landslide victory for Biden. Even if Trump loses, this should be a bit of a wake-up call for Americans.


That you need electoral reform ? And I'm not even talking about the electoral college necessarily, but for starters why not have the same rules everywhere regarding all the sticking points in this election : how to vote, who can vote, how the votes are counted and when, etc. ? No gerrymandering should also be a no brainer. And my pet peeve, but it's because I see its effect in my country, drastically limiting the money spent on elections : people get all the information they need, without being harrassed by politics, without campaigns lasting months and years, small fringe candidates are heard...

Because each states in the US are sovereign ...
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TheSonntag
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:23 pm

"I think a lot of what makes people think he's a disgrace was media pushing anti-Trump messages 24h/7. Don't get me wrong, I still don't like him, but I've been pretty sure the outcome of the election is going to swing this way because the liberals went way into the deep end, and a lot of people were just scared to oppose the crazy fringe left for fear of being cancelled."


I totally agree. In Germany in liberal newspapers, you read Trump did this bad, he did that bad, and so one. Actually, just listening to his speeches is horrible enough, but nevertheless, the media is turning on everything Trump says.


And lets face it - Trump does have a point once in a while. When he criticises Europes Defense Spending, he is right. When he is critizising the loss of blue collar jobs, he has a point (his solutions are wrong, but not his point).

I work at a German Dax utility, and we talk English all the time in my job. I work with expats from all over Europe. When I leave the office, I see normal ordinary people. The societies tend to drift from each others. Winners in white collar jobs, and "losers" in blue collar jobs.

This is getting worse, and competition is fierce with other collegues. Trump gave the losers of competition a voice.
 
airtechy
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:24 pm

winginit wrote:
airtechy wrote:
To be honest, I am now more worried about Nevada. Close and they won't release any more vote counts until Thursday.


There’s no need to be. The margin is thin now yes, but an overwhelming percentage of the state is in Clark County, which is only 72% in and showing +7 for Biden. That will easily offset the outstanding rural vote and then some.

Of course if Biden wins PA or GA Nevada doesn’t matter.


I think there is hope in GA, but PA will be a heavy lift. It would take almost 100% of the remaining mail in vote for him to win PA .. IMO of course and I would love to be wrong!
 
kaitak
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:25 pm

Nevada is indeed worrying, but the last time I looked (before they decided to suspend counting, the remaining votes were to be mail in, which usually favours the Dems. Let's just hope.

Arizona is v. slow, but seems to be holding blue (+11)
Maine's larger CD is looking like it will be Biden (+3)
Wisconsin looks like it will stay blue; very close, but JB appears to be widening his lead (+10)
Michigan: DT's lead has been cut right down and with the number of votes still to be cast, I believe it will go blue (+16).

There are a lot of mail -in votes left to be counted in PA, BUT ... here's the thing:

If JB (now 224), gets the four states listed above today, that's 40, bringing him to 264. If he can get Nevada, he reaches the 270 mark. And that's game over. As a famous British football manager would have put it, it's "squeaky bum time" (might have a different meaning in the US!) .... but I believe that JB has a course to victory. It will need Nevada to work. If Nevada doesn't work and goes with Trump, then I think he will win - assuming that the mail in votes in PA don't carry Biden over the line. I think it will work (maybe that's wishful thinking), but based on the fact that the outstanding votes are by mail, I think they should hold it. It'll certainly be a forceful reminder: don't overlook NV next time!
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:25 pm

This being sad, Trump is still a disgrace. He is totally undemocratic, not accepting democratic rules like the search for compromise. And I am shocked that this still does not seem to bother people.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:26 pm

casinterest wrote:
Wow just woke up
Wisconsin is turning Blue *
Suddenly Michigan is really close with a lot of votes outstanding,
The ballots are mattering

Pennsylvania still has many outstanding votes.

Going to be close,.

And Georgia is not done either.

//Edit Michigan should know by the end of the day. 2/3 of Michigan voters voted absentee. it really looks like the cities are outstanding, and looks likely for Biden to take it.


I also think MI will go blue. The outstanding ballots from Wayne & Oakland county alone —about 40% in this moment— are worth more than triple the current difference 45 leads by. Which is important as a number of red counties also have some percentages left to report out west by Grand Rapids.

I think PA will be a harder pull. PHL is a bigger city, but there is a smaller percentage left outstanding in the relevant counties.

I would like to see Biden pick up GA, but at this point, he can do without once MI reports the rest of their out-standings. With WI & MI, Biden will win with what he has. That seems like the most likely outcome at this point.

I do remain concerned about what anti-voter maneuverings 45 and that gang will continue to attempt. They have been overwhelming unsuccessful so far. But there is nothing stopping that part changing.
Well, you know what they say. Whatever doesn't kill you...
... Must not be an MD-11.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:26 pm

c933103 wrote:
Regardless of who ultimately end up winning, one thing for sure is that the poll didn't really improved


We will see once the final number comes in.

Polls look way off in MI again, though. PA had been trending towards Trump late (Biden lead went from ~5 points to ~2 points), so no surprises there.

Otherwise, basically 99% of Biden election math relied on the poll which show he was leading in WI and MI by a fairly safe margin anyway. In that case it is very true that Biden has lots of victory path as he just need one of AZ (plus NE-2 or ME-2) GA, NC, or PA.

Calling a 270-268 or 271-267 result myself, with Biden flipping MI, AZ, WI, along with NE-2 and/or ME-2. Sounds fitting for a divided nation.
 
winginit
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:27 pm

airtechy wrote:
winginit wrote:
airtechy wrote:
To be honest, I am now more worried about Nevada. Close and they won't release any more vote counts until Thursday.


There’s no need to be. The margin is thin now yes, but an overwhelming percentage of the state is in Clark County, which is only 72% in and showing +7 for Biden. That will easily offset the outstanding rural vote and then some.

Of course if Biden wins PA or GA Nevada doesn’t matter.


I think there is hope in GA, but PA will be a heavy lift. It would take almost 100% of the remaining mail in vote for him to win PA .. IMO of course and I would love to be wrong!


Looks like Trump has a 700,000 vote lead but there are 1,400,000 absentee left to count, which are going overwhelmingly for Biden, so I think he has a good chance.
 
aaden
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:27 pm

winginit wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Wow just woke up
Wisconsin is turning Blue *
Suddenly Michigan is really close with a lot of votes outstanding,
The ballots are mattering

Pennsylvania still has many outstanding votes.

Going to be close,.

And Georgia is not done either.


It’s comical just how poorly so many posts in this thread from even a few hours ago are holding up.

Joe Biden is going to win this election, and the only outstanding item at this point appears to be whether it will be by a little (if he loses PA) or by the same margin as Trump won in 2016 (if he wins PA+GA).

If you would have told me only a few months ago that Biden would be trending well in WI/MI/PA, that AZ would be flipped, and that GA would be in play I would have been absolutely ecstatic. The expectations over the past few weeks got away from us Democrats this year.

Polls fell flat on their faces, but worth pointing out that betting odds over the past week seem to have nailed almost every single state.



You think he has a chance in PA/GA that looks like a long shot from my point of view.
 
winginit
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:29 pm

aaden wrote:
winginit wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Wow just woke up
Wisconsin is turning Blue *
Suddenly Michigan is really close with a lot of votes outstanding,
The ballots are mattering

Pennsylvania still has many outstanding votes.

Going to be close,.

And Georgia is not done either.


It’s comical just how poorly so many posts in this thread from even a few hours ago are holding up.

Joe Biden is going to win this election, and the only outstanding item at this point appears to be whether it will be by a little (if he loses PA) or by the same margin as Trump won in 2016 (if he wins PA+GA).

If you would have told me only a few months ago that Biden would be trending well in WI/MI/PA, that AZ would be flipped, and that GA would be in play I would have been absolutely ecstatic. The expectations over the past few weeks got away from us Democrats this year.

Polls fell flat on their faces, but worth pointing out that betting odds over the past week seem to have nailed almost every single state.



You think he has a chance in PA/GA that looks like a long shot from my point of view.


Neither matter at this point if he holds Nevada (he will) and WI/MI are called (they will be, soon)

Arizona was the game changer, and John and Cindy McCain will haunt Donald Trump for the rest of his days. Beautiful.
 
aaden
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:33 pm

winginit wrote:
airtechy wrote:
winginit wrote:

There’s no need to be. The margin is thin now yes, but an overwhelming percentage of the state is in Clark County, which is only 72% in and showing +7 for Biden. That will easily offset the outstanding rural vote and then some.

Of course if Biden wins PA or GA Nevada doesn’t matter.


I think there is hope in GA, but PA will be a heavy lift. It would take almost 100% of the remaining mail in vote for him to win PA .. IMO of course and I would love to be wrong!


Looks like Trump has a 700,000 vote lead but there are 1,400,000 absentee left to count, which are going overwhelmingly for Biden, so I think he has a good chance.




He would need 80-90% of those votes.... I think PA/GA are more likely to go to trump....
 
winginit
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:33 pm

aaden wrote:
winginit wrote:
airtechy wrote:

I think there is hope in GA, but PA will be a heavy lift. It would take almost 100% of the remaining mail in vote for him to win PA .. IMO of course and I would love to be wrong!


Looks like Trump has a 700,000 vote lead but there are 1,400,000 absentee left to count, which are going overwhelmingly for Biden, so I think he has a good chance.


He would need 80-90% of those votes.... I think PA/GA are more likely to go to trump....


Possible - but again, irrelevant at this point.
 
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DL717
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:44 pm

casinterest wrote:
Redd wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Texas is win for the GOP, but the trend is continuing to whittle away the GOP margins.



24 hours ago the polls were predicting (propagating) a landslide victory for Biden. Even if Trump loses, this should be a bit of a wake-up call for Americans.



No, a landslide was not predicted. It was within the margin of Error,


To be fair, there were some serious BS polls out there. They were as I mentioned breaking for Trump and I was pretty dang close on a possible tie, but NE split. I was on my way to a lot of mallowmars damnit! :lol:

Biden 270. Maybe Trump gets lucky and runs the table on GA,NC,PA and MI. Houses split as called.
Last edited by DL717 on Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
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DL717
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:48 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
"I think a lot of what makes people think he's a disgrace was media pushing anti-Trump messages 24h/7. Don't get me wrong, I still don't like him, but I've been pretty sure the outcome of the election is going to swing this way because the liberals went way into the deep end, and a lot of people were just scared to oppose the crazy fringe left for fear of being cancelled."


I totally agree. In Germany in liberal newspapers, you read Trump did this bad, he did that bad, and so one. Actually, just listening to his speeches is horrible enough, but nevertheless, the media is turning on everything Trump says.


And lets face it - Trump does have a point once in a while. When he criticises Europes Defense Spending, he is right. When he is critizising the loss of blue collar jobs, he has a point (his solutions are wrong, but not his point).

I work at a German Dax utility, and we talk English all the time in my job. I work with expats from all over Europe. When I leave the office, I see normal ordinary people. The societies tend to drift from each others. Winners in white collar jobs, and "losers" in blue collar jobs.

This is getting worse, and competition is fierce with other collegues. Trump gave the losers of competition a voice.


Last night he was talking about the media stopping, but it’s going of script on crap like that shows his asshole narcissist tendencies. What a moron.

airtechy wrote:
I also think that the pollsters should move out of California and park themselves in the 70% red states to get a better feel for the "uneducated white vote" or find another occupation.


Pretty much, considering their polling skills makes them look pretty uneducated.
Last edited by DL717 on Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:49 pm

IIRC going into the weekend 538’s list of oddball odds had Biden landslide at only 3-in-10.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
maps4ltd
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:50 pm

I have two scenarios, created on the election map of 270towin.com. The first is 270-268 Biden and the second is 284-254 Trump. Biden relies on him winning Michigan and Wisconsin and losing Penna and Georgia. Trump relies on him winning Penna, Michigan, and Georgia (the first is up in the air, second is up in the air, third is kind of likely). I used the current NYT data to make my prediction, which has results in at 97% reported Wisconsin, 87% MI, and 75% PA.
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casinterest
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:52 pm

DL717 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Redd wrote:


24 hours ago the polls were predicting (propagating) a landslide victory for Biden. Even if Trump loses, this should be a bit of a wake-up call for Americans.



No, a landslide was not predicted. It was within the margin of Error,


To be fair, there were some serious BS polls out there. They were as I mentioned breaking for Trump and I was pretty dang close on a possible tie, but NE split. I was on by way to a lot of mallow-mars damnit! :lol:

Biden 270. Maybe Trump gets lucky and runs the table on GA,NC,PA and MI. Houses split as called.


I think Trump loses Michigan. NC and GA are going to be a lot tighter than I seriously ever thought. PA is so difficult due to the outstanding counts. 25% of the PA ballots remain to be counted, and that is 1.3-1.5 million votes.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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DL717
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:56 pm

casinterest wrote:
DL717 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


No, a landslide was not predicted. It was within the margin of Error,


To be fair, there were some serious BS polls out there. They were as I mentioned breaking for Trump and I was pretty dang close on a possible tie, but NE split. I was on by way to a lot of mallow-mars damnit! :lol:

Biden 270. Maybe Trump gets lucky and runs the table on GA,NC,PA and MI. Houses split as called.


I think Trump loses Michigan. NC and GA are going to be a lot tighter than I seriously ever thought. PA is so difficult due to the outstanding counts. 25% of the PA ballots remain to be counted, and that is 1.3-1.5 million votes.


PA is just a dumpster fire. God. They are making Florida look like a cake walk given what technology we have today vs. 2000. They look flat out stupid.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:58 pm

DL717 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
DL717 wrote:

To be fair, there were some serious BS polls out there. They were as I mentioned breaking for Trump and I was pretty dang close on a possible tie, but NE split. I was on by way to a lot of mallow-mars damnit! :lol:

Biden 270. Maybe Trump gets lucky and runs the table on GA,NC,PA and MI. Houses split as called.


I think Trump loses Michigan. NC and GA are going to be a lot tighter than I seriously ever thought. PA is so difficult due to the outstanding counts. 25% of the PA ballots remain to be counted, and that is 1.3-1.5 million votes.


PA is just a dumpster fire. God. They are making Florida look like a cake walk given what technology we have today vs. 2000. They look flat out stupid.



I think we may not know PA for a long time, but it may not matter.
Michigan is starting to report more, and the margin is coming closer.

~22k lead for Trump right now.

//~15K 10 minutes later. Expect Biden to be leading by 10:00 A, EDT
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
Redd
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:04 pm

Aesma wrote:
Redd wrote:
TheSonntag wrote:
@Redd: I tend to agree that the problem of the US system is that the Democrats tend to struggle getting really useful candidates, and that there is a distinctive difference between what media thinks is important, and what is important to blue collar people. We have the same in Germany where people living in expensive lofts in Hamburg and Berlin believe that they know what normal people need.

But - this is still no excuse for Trump . This guy is a disgrace for the US and totally incompetent.


I think a lot of what makes people think he's a disgrace was media pushing anti-Trump messages 24h/7. Don't get me wrong, I still don't like him, but I've been pretty sure the outcome of the election is going to swing this way because the liberals went way into the deep end, and a lot of people were just scared to oppose the crazy fringe left for fear of being cancelled.

Same happened in Poland where I live, but here we REALLY have a disgusting disgraceful government. But once again, the left did it to themselves. Now we all have to suffer for it.


I'm sorry but you can't equate the far right and far left. The far left want utopian things yes, but positive things. Healthcare for all, education for all, equal chances, non discrimination. The far right wants the opposite of all these things. Sure the left must be better at messaging, but that doesn't excuse people for voting far right. Do/did we excuse the Germans for electing and supporting Hitler ? They don't even excuse themselves of having done it.

'
I meant more like things in this video, which are becoming the norm. Fantasy becomes fact = the new left. The left that you're talking about died 4-5 years ago. I miss that left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5TVLEaqqdI
 
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casinterest
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:05 pm

And Michigan just went blue.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
winginit
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Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:08 pm

DL717 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
DL717 wrote:

To be fair, there were some serious BS polls out there. They were as I mentioned breaking for Trump and I was pretty dang close on a possible tie, but NE split. I was on by way to a lot of mallow-mars damnit! :lol:

Biden 270. Maybe Trump gets lucky and runs the table on GA,NC,PA and MI. Houses split as called.


I think Trump loses Michigan. NC and GA are going to be a lot tighter than I seriously ever thought. PA is so difficult due to the outstanding counts. 25% of the PA ballots remain to be counted, and that is 1.3-1.5 million votes.


PA is just a dumpster fire. God. They are making Florida look like a cake walk given what technology we have today vs. 2000. They look flat out stupid.


Let’s recall why Pennsylvania is in this ridiculous predicament of not being permitted to count early and absentee votes before election night - Republicans in their state legislature.
 
NIKV69
Topic Author
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:12 pm

airtechy wrote:
To be honest, I am now more worried about Nevada. Close and they won't release any more vote counts until Thursday.


I thought they said this would be a fair election? I have never heard of such a thing.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
winginit
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:16 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
airtechy wrote:
To be honest, I am now more worried about Nevada. Close and they won't release any more vote counts until Thursday.


I thought they said this would be a fair election? I have never heard of such a thing.


Ah - so slow, accurate counting is unfair now? Hot take.

It was always known that Nevada would have to count mail in ballots post marked on or before the 3rd but received on the 4th or later. Don’t you live in Nevada? Were you unaware?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:22 pm

winginit wrote:
DL717 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

I think Trump loses Michigan. NC and GA are going to be a lot tighter than I seriously ever thought. PA is so difficult due to the outstanding counts. 25% of the PA ballots remain to be counted, and that is 1.3-1.5 million votes.


PA is just a dumpster fire. God. They are making Florida look like a cake walk given what technology we have today vs. 2000. They look flat out stupid.


Let’s recall why Pennsylvania is in this ridiculous predicament of not being permitted to count early and absentee votes before election night - Republicans in their state legislature.


1.4 Million outstanding per the PA Election officials.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
NIKV69
Topic Author
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:32 pm

winginit wrote:
Ah - so slow, accurate counting is unfair now? Hot take.

It was always known that Nevada would have to count mail in ballots post marked on or before the 3rd but received on the 4th or later. Don’t you live in Nevada? Were you unaware?


Very slow. You can't update at the day goes? Sounds fishy to me.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:45 pm

Aesma wrote:

I'm sorry but you can't equate the far right and far left. The far left want utopian things yes, but positive things.


Image

Of course you can. The political spectrum is basically an O-ring where far-left and far-right meet in the same swamp on the FAR end of the circle. That's why communism and nazism are so much alike.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:48 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
And lets face it - Trump does have a point once in a while. When he criticises Europes Defense Spending, he is right. When he is critizising the loss of blue collar jobs, he has a point (his solutions are wrong, but not his point).


He has a point and he hasn't, because in his mind we should be buying US stuff. And he pushes for that (the US in general does). If we actually decided to spend as the US, we would have our own F35 equivalent, our own aircraft carriers, our own everything, basically, and there would actually be less buying of US hardware. Trump wouldn't like that at all.

TheSonntag wrote:
I work at a German Dax utility, and we talk English all the time in my job. I work with expats from all over Europe. When I leave the office, I see normal ordinary people. The societies tend to drift from each others. Winners in white collar jobs, and "losers" in blue collar jobs.

This is getting worse, and competition is fierce with other collegues. Trump gave the losers of competition a voice.


And what did he actually do about that ? Except complain about China (and Germany) ?

There are ways to have more blue collar jobs in our advanced countries, and also to need less of them : that's called technology, research, and education. What did he do about that ?

And yes some tough talks with China is needed, but the best way to go about it would be to go at it with Canada, Australia, NZ, and Europe, all onboard. Instead he attacked both China and all other countries at the same time.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:51 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
Aesma wrote:
I'm sorry but you can't equate the far right and far left. The far left want utopian things yes, but positive things.


Image

Of course you can. The political spectrum is basically an O-ring where far-left and far-right meet in the same swamp on the FAR end of the circle. That's why communism and nazism are so much alike.


The far left isn't calling for the death of anyone. Who does AOC want to kill ? Is she armed ? The president is fine with calling for violence against his opponents, though.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
winginit
Posts: 3067
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:52 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
winginit wrote:
Ah - so slow, accurate counting is unfair now? Hot take.

It was always known that Nevada would have to count mail in ballots post marked on or before the 3rd but received on the 4th or later. Don’t you live in Nevada? Were you unaware?


Very slow. You can't update at the day goes? Sounds fishy to me.


It’s not.

Sorry for your loss.
 
rfields5421
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:54 pm

winginit wrote:
Let’s recall why Pennsylvania is in this ridiculous predicament of not being permitted to count early and absentee votes before election night - Republicans in their state legislature.


I don't know of a single state which allows early and absentee votes to be counted before election day. Back when I first voted for President, 1972, my town/precinct in Arkansas (solid Democrat) only counted absentee ballots after the regular in-person votes were counted. It was all paper ballots with not machine. I was in Vietnam and the only person in the town to cast an absentee ballot. And as it turned out the only vote cast for McGovern in that precinct.

(The town have voted over 80% for Humphrey, but McGovern was just too far left for them. My dad and mother did not vote for either presidential candidate in 1972.)
Not all who wander are lost.
 
winginit
Posts: 3067
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:55 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
winginit wrote:
Let’s recall why Pennsylvania is in this ridiculous predicament of not being permitted to count early and absentee votes before election night - Republicans in their state legislature.


I don't know of a single state which allows early and absentee votes to be counted before election day. Back when I first voted for President, 1972, my town/precinct in Arkansas (solid Democrat) only counted absentee ballots after the regular in-person votes were counted. It was all paper ballots with not machine. I was in Vietnam and the only person in the town to cast an absentee ballot. And as it turned out the only vote cast for McGovern in that precinct.


Uhh - yes you do. California? South Carolina? Florida? Numerous others. Have you heard of those states?
Last edited by winginit on Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:56 pm

Well, it seems things are becoming tighter, and a Biden win is now apparently more likely according to betting markets.
Now the question will be, how is Biden going to do with a Republican controlled senate and his ambitious agenda? I guess he will have to resort to the pen, and the Supreme court will keep a check on that.

As for the House, interesting how Republicans appeared to gain seats, when it was expected the opposite. Its going to be tough in 2022 when the electorate votes for the contrary party in congress so the House can become Republican in 2022.

Sorry Democrats, no GND, no court packing... no tax increases etc. Its going to be a caretaker government for 4 years if Biden wins.

So, we are setting us up for 2024 where another Republican can take the WH. I am willing to live with this.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
PPVRA
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:05 pm

If I’m following the data right, Michigan’s 11th district will either crown Trump or this thing might go to the House. 50-50 IMO.

Still counting votes... Michigan could still change either way.
Last edited by PPVRA on Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
winginit
Posts: 3067
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:06 pm

Joe Biden has officially received more votes for President of the United States than any candidate in history.

His leads in Wisconsin and Michigan also now exceed Trump’s margins of victory in 2016.

PPVRA wrote:
If I’m following the data right, Michigan’s 11th district will either crown Trump or this thing might go to the House.


It would appear you are not following the data right. There is no longer any scenario where the election is a tie and thus goes to the house if that’s what you’re implying.

Wisconsin and Michigan will be called within the next couple of hours. They will both be called for Joe Biden, effectively ending the election under the assumption that Biden wins Nevada, which he will.
Last edited by winginit on Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
rfields5421
Posts: 6374
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:45 am

Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:07 pm

winginit wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:
winginit wrote:
Let’s recall why Pennsylvania is in this ridiculous predicament of not being permitted to count early and absentee votes before election night - Republicans in their state legislature.


I don't know of a single state which allows early and absentee votes to be counted before election day. Back when I first voted for President, 1972, my town/precinct in Arkansas (solid Democrat) only counted absentee ballots after the regular in-person votes were counted. It was all paper ballots with not machine. I was in Vietnam and the only person in the town to cast an absentee ballot. And as it turned out the only vote cast for McGovern in that precinct.


Uhh - yes you do. California? South Carolina? Florida? Numerous others. Have you heard of those states?


Thank you. I was not aware that the votes were counted before election day. Had never heard that, but I will admit that I did not research it. Most of the time I hear that absentee and early votes are not counted to prevent possible leaks of numbers and election day voters being influenced by reports of the votes already cast..

No, need to be snarky.

As I've said many times we have 51 different systems of voting, counting votes, deadlines and such for electing the President. Hard to keep track of all the details and changes..
Not all who wander are lost.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 14015
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:08 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Well, it seems things are becoming tighter, and a Biden win is now apparently more likely according to betting markets.
Now the question will be, how is Biden going to do with a Republican controlled senate and his ambitious agenda? I guess he will have to resort to the pen, and the Supreme court will keep a check on that.

As for the House, interesting how Republicans appeared to gain seats, when it was expected the opposite. Its going to be tough in 2022 when the electorate votes for the contrary party in congress so the House can become Republican in 2022.

Sorry Democrats, no GND, no court packing... no tax increases etc. Its going to be a caretaker government for 4 years if Biden wins.

So, we are setting us up for 2024 where another Republican can take the WH. I am willing to live with this.


One wonders where this kind of analysis comes from. Biden's statements indicate he wants to work across the aisle. Have you reserved the same criticism for the current WH?

Trump is the biggest user of the pen since Clinton. GWB - 291 in 8 years. BHO - 276 in 8 years. DJT? 192 in 3.8 years.

As for 2022 and 2024, the GOP only performed well in this cycle via a massive rural turnout drive. They are getting killed in the suburbs with each successive election - 2016 wasn't great, 2018 was worse, the results from this cycle are ostensibly worse for them than 2018.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 4050
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:10 pm

winginit wrote:
Joe Biden has officially received more votes for President of the United States than any candidate in history.

His leads in Wisconsin and Michigan also now exceed Trump’s margins of victory in 2016.

PPVRA wrote:
If I’m following the data right, Michigan’s 11th district will either crown Trump or this thing might go to the House.


It would appear you are not following the data right. There is no longer any scenario where the election is a tie and thus goes to the house if that’s what you’re implying.

Wisconsin and Michigan will be called within the next couple of hours. They will both be called for Joe Biden, effectively ending the election under the assumption that Biden wins Nevada, which he will.

I hope Biden announces that he has the most bigly win in history!


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rfields5421
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Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:45 am

Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:12 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Well, it seems things are becoming tighter, and a Biden win is now apparently more likely according to betting markets.
Now the question will be, how is Biden going to do with a Republican controlled senate and his ambitious agenda? I guess he will have to resort to the pen, and the Supreme court will keep a check on that.


My math is that Biden is still very unlikely to win. Trump only needs the second district in Maine where he is leading, Alaska where he is leading, and PA, NC and GA to be locked in. Biden can win MI, WI and NV and he still needs one of the three east coast states.

Much of the liberal media is still not calling Arizona for Biden but I think he has it.

As far as how as how is Biden going to do with a Republican Senate - the same as Trump is doing with a Democrat House - Executive Orders, changing the budgets approved by Congress and using his Supreme Court, which he is greatly frustrated to realize insists upon following the law more than following his wishes.
Last edited by rfields5421 on Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
bennett123
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:12 pm

Aesma

How far left is AOC?.
 
User avatar
Tugger
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:14 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Its going to be a caretaker government for 4 years if Biden wins.

Well thank god for that! It will be great to have a government that "caretakes" for nation vs the destructive loser crapshow we've lived with for the last 3.8.

On with the count!

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
winginit
Posts: 3067
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:16 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Well, it seems things are becoming tighter, and a Biden win is now apparently more likely according to betting markets.
Now the question will be, how is Biden going to do with a Republican controlled senate and his ambitious agenda? I guess he will have to resort to the pen, and the Supreme court will keep a check on that.


My math is that Biden is still very unlikely to win. Trump only needs the second district in Maine where he is leading, Alaska where he is leading, and PA, NC and GA to be locked in. Biden can win MI, WI and NV and he still needs one of the three east coast states.


Your math is incorrect. Even if Trump wins ME2/AK/PA/NC/GA it’s 270-268 Biden win

There is no path to a Trump victory if Biden wins WI/MI/NV, which at this point is looking overwhelmingly likely
Last edited by winginit on Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ArcticSEA
Posts: 371
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:17 pm

Biden currently leads with 238 electoral votes. MI, WI, and NV currently trending in Biden's favor. If that trend continues, Biden is the next President of the United States. 238+16+10+6=270.
PNW-based private pilot and engineer. #fatpnw
 
User avatar
Tugger
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:17 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
My math is that Biden is still very unlikely to win. Trump only needs the second district in Maine where he is leading, Alaska where he is leading, and PA, NC and GA to be locked in. Biden can win MI, WI and NV and he still needs one of the three east coast states.

Really? Looking at FoxNews, they show Biden with 238 currently. Add NV, WI and MI and Biden will have 270. However there are still votes to count, things can and will change. Time to wait and count.

Tugg
Last edited by Tugger on Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:18 pm

I must admit - it is like a world cup final. Really thrilling.
 
rfields5421
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Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:18 pm

Okay, I see that from Fox News which has called ME2 for Biden.

Strange that Fox is projecting a more likely win than ABC/ CBS/ CNN. But that seems to change by the minute.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8596
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Official Election thread

Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:19 pm

winginit wrote:
Joe Biden has officially received more votes for President of the United States than any candidate in history.

His leads in Wisconsin and Michigan also now exceed Trump’s margins of victory in 2016.

PPVRA wrote:
If I’m following the data right, Michigan’s 11th district will either crown Trump or this thing might go to the House.


It would appear you are not following the data right. There is no longer any scenario where the election is a tie and thus goes to the house if that’s what you’re implying.

Wisconsin and Michigan will be called within the next couple of hours. They will both be called for Joe Biden, effectively ending the election under the assumption that Biden wins Nevada, which he will.


I see Republicans holding on to 6 districts, Democrats holding on to 4 but soon to be 6 districts, most likely.

There are two additional districts. One appears to be going Trump, the other is expected to go Democrat but is still being lead by republicans with 2/3s of the vote in. That’s a tie 7-7 tie if the parties split these last two districts. Razor thin margin on that 11th district, however.

What am I missing?
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