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rfields5421
Posts: 6374
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:37 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
More legal stuff back and forth in Pennsylvania.

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-n ... f92e0e9327

Pennsylvania’s attorney general told the Supreme Court Thursday that he objects to the Trump campaign joining a pending dispute concerning late arriving ballots in the Commonwealth.

The justices are currently considering a case brought by Republicans challenging a Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision that allowed ballots to be counted up to three days after the election even if they don’t have a legible postmark. The Trump campaign is asking the justices to allow it to become a part of the dispute arguing that the election could come down to those ballots.


https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-n ... ee283cb982

The Trump campaign filed a new lawsuit Thursday afternoon against Philadelphia elections officials for allegedly violating their due process rights by blocking the observation of ballots in the city.

This complaint doesn't seem to include any details about how and why canvassing might have been blocked.


Oh how surprising, just one of many in a row of lawsuits without any evidence or substantial that would merit the lawsuit. Just suing for the sake of suing.


It appears that the 'Trump Campaign' is not trusting the GOP selected observers already in place.

The campaign obviously does not trust the Republican Party to pursue their law suit properly.

I've never heard of a candidate who wants to take over from the party in challenging vote counting or such.
 
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illinoisman
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:52 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
Trump is terrible, and I'm biting my nails with this election, but one thing seems sure is that something(s) about Democrats is just not resonating with people enough that it's driving them to pull the lever for someone awful like Trump. Calling all of them morons and racists does not adequately explain the behavior (looking like he notable INCREASED his minority vote). For one reason or other, enough people think voting for Trump is less scary than voting for Biden and the Dems.

I'm no fan of our current president. The problem is, the guy who ran against him isn't any good either. I'm sure lots of independents share that view.
 
winginit
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:55 pm

ArcticSEA wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
He won't run in 2024 he will get his daughter to do that.

The American people will decide who runs for President.


Indeed, but a Republican nominee will fail in the nomination process without Trump's base, which this election is proving will likely be maintained if not egged on even further by whatever Trump launches in these next four years.

If he isn't in prison or otherwise brought crumbling down by scandal (which is likely), Trump will be a kingmaker in the Republican party even in 2024.

Anyway, we're getting off topic - this is a discussion for a dedicated thread.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:58 pm

ArcticSEA wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
He won't run in 2024 he will get his daughter to do that.

The American people will decide who runs for President.


They vote after the declaration. Not before. Very telling your statement.
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:58 pm

Does Biden have a chance to win in Georgia and Pennsylvania?
 
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Tugger
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:07 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
Earlier in the thread there was some criticism of the forecast at fivethirtyeight that showed Biden with an 89% chance of winning as election day began. I think where we find ourselves now is actually a validation of that assessment. There's been roughly a 4% national polling miss in Trump's favor, larger miss favoring Trump in some swing states, yet Biden still looks increasingly likely to have won the presidency.

Yes, I can only think that Trump voters refused to participate in polling or did not identify accurately.

Tugg
 
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Tugger
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:10 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Does Biden have a chance to win in Georgia and Pennsylvania?

Yes.

It's slim but the ballots that are left to count traditionally will lean Dem (area and timing when received).

Tugg
 
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Tugger
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:13 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
ArcticSEA wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
He won't run in 2024 he will get his daughter to do that.

The American people will decide who runs for President.


They vote after the declaration. Not before. Very telling your statement.

Telling? Actually he is accurate. Declaration happens for seeking the party nomination, then the American people decide who that will be, THEN the nominee will run for the office of the President.

Now.... Nikki Haley with Ivanka Trump as VP would be an intriguing ticket...
(And a nightmare for the Dems).

Tugg
 
alfa164
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:23 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
It appears that the 'Trump Campaign' is not trusting the GOP selected observers already in place.
The campaign obviously does not trust the Republican Party to pursue their law suit properly.
I've never heard of a candidate who wants to take over from the party in challenging vote counting or such.


Lawsuits - frivolous and otherwise - have been Trump's modus operandi for decades, whether in business, in his personal life, or - now - in politics. Even if he (or his lackeys) knows he can't win, he believes intimidation, confusion, and misinformation are beneficial to his cause - never mind the effect they have on the country and the people of this nation.
 
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illinoisman
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:37 pm

winginit wrote:
Image

For me, this was entirely predictable, especially if he loses the electoral vote by a small margin. Maybe Trump will look to Andrew Jackson for inspiration. Jackson claimed victory in the 1824 election was stolen from him, and his supporters campaigned on this idea for the next four years, ultimately helping him win the presidency in 1828.
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:54 pm

winginit wrote:
Indeed, but a Republican nominee will fail in the nomination process without Trump's base, which this election is proving will likely be maintained if not egged on even further by whatever Trump launches in these next four years.

If he isn't in prison or otherwise brought crumbling down by scandal (which is likely), Trump will be a kingmaker in the Republican party even in 2024.

Another Trump run in 2024 would probably give Republican Party leaders a huge headache. Sure, he'd still have a decent-sized group of loyal followers, but retreads usually aren't winning picks. Plus, if he refuses to go quietly now and instead creates a huge scene over baseless voter fraud claims then that will probably turn-off even more middle of the road folks. Many in GOP are undoubtedly eager to move on from Trump's chaos. Any future primary campaign involving him would surely be nasty. Worst-case scenario, he loses the primary but claims it was "rigged" by the establishment, and he decides to run as a independent out of spite.
 
luckyone
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:55 pm

Tugger wrote:


Now.... Nikki Haley with Ivanka Trump as VP would be an intriguing ticket...
(And a nightmare for the Dems).

Tugg

I'm going to go out on a limb and disagree with that. Hillary Clinton had plenty of baggage, some of it legit, some of it hyped by "the media." But part of the cocktail that elected Trump in the Midwest was old-school, culturally conservative middle aged and elderly men, many of whom would not be comfortable with the idea of a woman POTUS -- Trump's "Nasty woman" rhetoric was directedly square at this group. I don't see that group as a whole being anymore enthusiastic about two women on the ballot. Coming from a family of similar background, I feel pretty confident making that statement.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Official Election thread

Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:59 pm

casinterest wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
N867DA wrote:

High turnout elections usually cause Democratic wins but that didn't happen. Joe Biden has gotten more votes for President than any other candidate. The number two candidate on that list is Donald Trump in 2020. Trump is an excellent marketer that is great at selling snake oil. And frankly, there are a lot of newcomers to politics who enjoy the crapshow that Donald Trump pulls--the leering and jeering, divisive rhetoric, and lack of class. They see the classlessness as an attribute. And then when he directly acts against their best interest, they vote for him.

Meanwhile Democrats are digging deeper and deeper into this BLM/ACAB rhetoric--and while those groups have valid points the way the points are packaged likely scare the crap out of predominantly white, working class states like Penn. or Michigan. Democrats need to double down on being--and representing themselves--as the party of labor. We should lift the ship for all--white, black, or purple while accepting there are things that make lifting some easier than others. Connect with voters like Obama.

Could not agree more. If you have to constantly play defense, you're doing something wrong. If you have to constantly explain how you're not really a socialist/communist/SJW radical, then you're doing something wrong in your messaging and branding. The thing is...I don't even see anyone else in the wings in the Democrat party who could fit the mold you describe like Obama and Bill Clinton. All the air in the room there seems contantly taken up by the Squad/Sanders/Warren/ACAB/Defund Police types. If Biden does win however, with his age and being a one-termer, I'm hoping he'll feel liberated or not as beholden to the fringe and can maybe restoke the flames of bipartisanship and coalition building.



All the air of the democrats is taking up by uneducated folks that label those that have other ideas as " socialist/communist/SJW radical" These are labels applied by folks that want to control others. They find east victims in folks that go to Fox News/ Right wing radio to enjoy and relish laughing at others, while they are the ones being manipulated into making others enemies. There are not many real conservatives. Most are uneducated folks that vote against their own self interests.


“Uneducated” is code for “I think he’s stupid and beneath me”; always a winning strategy. Thinking other people vote “against their own self-interest” is another code “they’re stupid and I know better”. Neither of these positions are smart or winning. Dems keep that up and another version of Trump will occupy the WH in 2025.
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:03 am

What a press conference from Trump. This is soviet Union revisited.
 
Alias1024
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:04 am

Tugger wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
Earlier in the thread there was some criticism of the forecast at fivethirtyeight that showed Biden with an 89% chance of winning as election day began. I think where we find ourselves now is actually a validation of that assessment. There's been roughly a 4% national polling miss in Trump's favor, larger miss favoring Trump in some swing states, yet Biden still looks increasingly likely to have won the presidency.

Yes, I can only think that Trump voters refused to participate in polling or did not identify accurately.

Tugg


My personal opinion is that it's not "shy" Trump voters as much as it's "F**k you" Trump voters. After half a decade of Trump calling the media and pollsters the enemy and frauds a lot of his supporters see it that way, so they intentionally stated they would vote for Biden not out of shame but out of malice toward pollsters. Throwing off the accuracy of the poll as a metaphorical middle finger toward the opposition.

It's also worth stating that fivethirtyeight is NOT a polling organization. They simply use an average of polls others do to feed in their model and handicap the election.

Edit: Just watched Trump's latest press conference. That's straight up authoritarian dictator behavior.
Last edited by Alias1024 on Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Klaus
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:04 am

TheSonntag wrote:
What a press conference from Trump. This is soviet Union revisited.

So he's decided to go out with a whimper.

Figures.
 
cpd
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:10 am

mke717spotter wrote:
winginit wrote:
Indeed, but a Republican nominee will fail in the nomination process without Trump's base, which this election is proving will likely be maintained if not egged on even further by whatever Trump launches in these next four years.

If he isn't in prison or otherwise brought crumbling down by scandal (which is likely), Trump will be a kingmaker in the Republican party even in 2024.

Another Trump run in 2024 would probably give Republican Party leaders a huge headache. Sure, he'd still have a decent-sized group of loyal followers, but retreads usually aren't winning picks. Plus, if he refuses to go quietly now and instead creates a huge scene over baseless voter fraud claims then that will probably turn-off even more middle of the road folks. Many in GOP are undoubtedly eager to move on from Trump's chaos. Any future primary campaign involving him would surely be nasty. Worst-case scenario, he loses the primary but claims it was "rigged" by the establishment, and he decides to run as a independent out of spite.


These Republicans decided to jump into bed with Trump - so they have to accept all the baggage that goes with it. They can't just wriggle out of it and make excuses when moving on from what some call "chaos". They were as much a willing accomplice to this chaos.

Evidently we are seeing a Soviet style performance from Trump - so the land of the free that gave us Freedom Fries has now gone to the dark side. "Party of the Workers" sounds like something from North Korea or the Soviet Union. Isn't this what Republicans have always stood against?
 
CaptHadley
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:15 am

Tugger wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
ArcticSEA wrote:
The American people will decide who runs for President.


They vote after the declaration. Not before. Very telling your statement.

Telling? Actually he is accurate. Declaration happens for seeking the party nomination, then the American people decide who that will be, THEN the nominee will run for the office of the President.

Now.... Nikki Haley with Ivanka Trump as VP would be an intriguing ticket...
(And a nightmare for the Dems).

Tugg


Just wondering, are you allowed to run for president with a felony conviction?
 
NYCVIE
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:24 am

It's just absolutely disgusting what's going on, seriously.
 
cpd
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:28 am

I'm struggling to keep track with the different outlets giving slightly different numbers, which states does Biden need to get to win it - if he gets PA, does that mean it's all over, or does he need Arizona too?
 
CometII
Posts: 368
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:30 am

TheSonntag wrote:
What a press conference from Trump. This is soviet Union revisited.


To be fair to Trump and the US, I don't imagine myself Stailn, Khrushchev, and Brezhnev somehow needing to claim there was massive systematic fraud in an election against them. But I wasn't alive nor in the USSR at the time!

But what Trump is suggesting is that the was a nationwide conspiracy involving multiple state election agencies and others to commit fraud, essentially just against him. Because Republicans overall actually had a rather good night. If there is going to such a massive well-coordinated operation, wouldn't there be also an attempt to sabotage congressional elections against the president's party too? And then is there only fraud on one side? What about the states Trump won narrowly, no fraud there?

The inconsistencies are just damning to sanity.
 
N867DA
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:30 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Could not agree more. If you have to constantly play defense, you're doing something wrong. If you have to constantly explain how you're not really a socialist/communist/SJW radical, then you're doing something wrong in your messaging and branding. The thing is...I don't even see anyone else in the wings in the Democrat party who could fit the mold you describe like Obama and Bill Clinton. All the air in the room there seems contantly taken up by the Squad/Sanders/Warren/ACAB/Defund Police types. If Biden does win however, with his age and being a one-termer, I'm hoping he'll feel liberated or not as beholden to the fringe and can maybe restoke the flames of bipartisanship and coalition building.



All the air of the democrats is taking up by uneducated folks that label those that have other ideas as " socialist/communist/SJW radical" These are labels applied by folks that want to control others. They find east victims in folks that go to Fox News/ Right wing radio to enjoy and relish laughing at others, while they are the ones being manipulated into making others enemies. There are not many real conservatives. Most are uneducated folks that vote against their own self interests.


“Uneducated” is code for “I think he’s stupid and beneath me”; always a winning strategy. Thinking other people vote “against their own self-interest” is another code “they’re stupid and I know better”. Neither of these positions are smart or winning. Dems keep that up and another version of Trump will occupy the WH in 2025.


Absolutely not. Uneducated is code for not having a college degree, which is a matter of fact that is correlated to but by no means causes or certainly leads to financial success. A lot of weasel words are needed to frame the though: In general, white people without college degrees have trended toward the Republican Party in recent elections. It is not saying anyone is stupid or dumb. It is just a demographic trend. There's a sacrificial lamb that's a source of dumbass things across the political spectrum. No one was super thrilled when Hank Johnson said Guam might tip over into the sea due to overpopulation, or some of the stuff that Maxine Walters or even AOC says. There's certainly a right-wing equivalent to each of these figures.

Voting against self-interest, eh, things get dicier and it's harder to be non-partisan about this. I guess that's why we try to convince fellow voters and have elections every once in a while. I absolutely, 100%, feel the Democratic party offers a far better deal to most Americans. People are welcome to disagree, and and I may even be wrong. Or the Republicans may change up a few things, and over time they will be the better deal. Right now, neither party is for dropping a pre-existing conditions mandate on healthcare. Though it was achieved by the Democrats, it forced the GOP to change its stance, and in that way people should re-evaluate which party is superior.

Regardless, Democrats have a lot of soul searching to do to better connect with these voters.
 
rfields5421
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:40 am

CaptHadley wrote:
Just wondering, are you allowed to run for president with a felony conviction?


There is nothing in the Constitution about such disqualifying anyone from running.

Now are you talking state felony, or federal felony?

A fully pardoned person technically was never convicted. Some states have procedures to allow people in prison to vote and return to full citizenship status.

US Federal Judge Alcee Hastings was impeached and removed from office in 1988 for accepting bribes and some other articles including perjury. He was not convicted in a criminal court of the charges. The Senate impeachment did not specifically say he could not hold hoffice in the future. (His impeachment was overwhelming supported by the House - 413-3, and the first of 8 articles of which he was convicted of in the Senate had a 69-26 vote of guilty. He was removed from the bench. He appealed to the US Supreme Court over the procedures in the Senate, and the Supreme Court. Another federal judge who had also been convicted by the Senate on similar ground as Hastings. The Supreme Court ruled unamously that the US Constitution gives the Senate
"sole power to try all impeachments."
The courts, nor any other government entity, have any power to question how the Senate conducts an impeachment trials.

Hastings was elected to the US House of Representatives in the 20th District of Florida in 1992 and apparently was re-elected again on Tuesday. With '100%' of the vote in on the Fox News website, he received 78..68 % of the vote.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:02 am

Above anything else, that speech from Trump has validated the entire Never Trump movement on the right. He made baseless allegations against the entire voting system on the same day several of his unfounded legal challenges were tossed in court. Irresponsible, dangerous, unprecendented, and childish as hell.

Meanwhile, Steve Bannon’s channel has been suspended on Twitter for suggesting federal bureaucrats’ ‘heads should be on pikes’ for not getting with the Trump program. Capital-C crazy.

https://twitter.com/peltzmadeline/statu ... 27618?s=21
Last edited by Aaron747 on Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
dragon-wings
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:04 am

cpd wrote:
I'm struggling to keep track with the different outlets giving slightly different numbers, which states does Biden need to get to win it - if he gets PA, does that mean it's all over, or does he need Arizona too?


If Biden win PA it is over. Biden can still win if he does not win PA, he would need to win AZ and NV.
 
winginit
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:46 am

dragon-wings wrote:
cpd wrote:
I'm struggling to keep track with the different outlets giving slightly different numbers, which states does Biden need to get to win it - if he gets PA, does that mean it's all over, or does he need Arizona too?


If Biden win PA it is over. Biden can still win if he does not win PA, he would need to win AZ and NV.


Joe Biden will win NV, AZ and PA at a minimum - at this rate likely Georgia as well. This election is effectively over, and now it's just a waiting game to see who calls it.
 
Klaus
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:56 am

dragon-wings wrote:
cpd wrote:
I'm struggling to keep track with the different outlets giving slightly different numbers, which states does Biden need to get to win it - if he gets PA, does that mean it's all over, or does he need Arizona too?


If Biden win PA it is over. Biden can still win if he does not win PA, he would need to win AZ and NV.

Georgia alone would do it, too, as far as I've understood: Trump needs both PA and GA to still win!

So right now it looks conceivable that Biden could actually win with all three of his paths to the presidency at the same time:
• Pennsylvania
• Georgia
• Arizona + Nevada
And even Alaska might still be in play, too, given that they've got all of their mail-in ballots yet to be counted...
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:02 am

Klaus wrote:
dragon-wings wrote:
cpd wrote:
I'm struggling to keep track with the different outlets giving slightly different numbers, which states does Biden need to get to win it - if he gets PA, does that mean it's all over, or does he need Arizona too?


If Biden win PA it is over. Biden can still win if he does not win PA, he would need to win AZ and NV.

Georgia alone would do it, too, as far as I've understood: Trump needs both PA and GA to still win!

So right now it looks conceivable that Biden could actually win with all three of his paths to the presidency at the same time:
• Pennsylvania
• Georgia
• Arizona + Nevada
And even Alaska might still be in play, too, given that they've got all of their mail-in ballots yet to be counted...


Alaska should not be in the conversation at all, but people up there were pretty pissed about Trump messing with the Tongass National Forest.
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:11 am

On CNN they stated that there are still votes outstanding from military ballots in Georgia. Shouldn't this help Trump?
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:14 am

Klaus wrote:
dragon-wings wrote:
cpd wrote:
I'm struggling to keep track with the different outlets giving slightly different numbers, which states does Biden need to get to win it - if he gets PA, does that mean it's all over, or does he need Arizona too?


If Biden win PA it is over. Biden can still win if he does not win PA, he would need to win AZ and NV.

Georgia alone would do it, too, as far as I've understood: Trump needs both PA and GA to still win!

So right now it looks conceivable that Biden could actually win with all three of his paths to the presidency at the same time:
• Pennsylvania
• Georgia
• Arizona + Nevada
And even Alaska might still be in play, too, given that they've got all of their mail-in ballots yet to be counted...


I will correct you a little bit. With Georgia alone that will get Biden to 269 EVs. If Trump wins everything else it would be 269-269.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:21 am

TheSonntag wrote:
On CNN they stated that there are still votes outstanding from military ballots in Georgia. Shouldn't this help Trump?


Not necessarily. According to MilitaryTimes polling, Trump only has a clear majority favorable rating in the USMC. In the other three branches his unpopularity is significant and mirrors the country as a whole.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pent ... oll-shows/
 
Klaus
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:22 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
I will correct you a little bit. With Georgia alone that will get Biden to 269 EVs. If Trump wins everything else it would be 269-269.

Right, which would throw it to the House counting only by delegations, which would still give republicans the advantage.

But only if Trump actually won all of the other remaining states, which seems increasingly implausible.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:35 am

Does anyone know when would Georgia officially call the winner? And when would the Nevadans leave the casinos and finish the counting stuff?
 
aerosreenivas
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:41 am

When Trump looses the election, will the authorities be able to move him away from the White House if he refuses to transfer peacefully?

In all probability it looks that way. His last night press conference seems to suggest that only.
 
rfields5421
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:42 am

TheSonntag wrote:
On CNN they stated that there are still votes outstanding from military ballots in Georgia. Shouldn't this help Trump?


2/3 or more of military active duty are under age 28 according to the last numbers I saw in Army Times back in September when we were in the Fort Bliss RV Park for a couple days.

Younger military personnel tend to be like their peers back in their homes in attitudes and voting. Those from rural conservative counties are likely to vote for Trump. Those from urban city areas are likely to vote for Biden. A lot of military recruits are young people from urban areas who want to escape what they see as a dead end as far as jobs, opportunities at home.

And younger military voters tend vote only about 1/2 to 5/8 percentage wise as older career military.

The Republicans have never had a lock on the military vote. Senior career military tend to look more detailed at the candidates. They have a very real understanding of what an incumbent president's policies really mean to the people in uniform. During my visits to Davis Monthan AFB and Fort Bliss this summer, I found a lot of anger among career military over the diversion of funding from military construction to the border wall. Funding for much technical training diverted, etc. But also a lot of support for Trump. If I had to guess, I'd say about 55% Trump, 45% Biden. That was in late August/ early September. It may have changed. EDIT - by career military, I mostly mean talk with senior enlisted, like I was during my 20 years.

Trump has NOT given the military a pay raise during his presidency. He has approved the annual COLA increase for all federal workers, and retirees as did President Obama. Some career military are very unhappy with the claims about him raising military pay.

Additionally, Trump has continued the military active duty downsizing started back in the Nixon administration after the withdrawal from Vietnam. As have all presidents since, including Reagan. When I was in, Reagan's 600 ship Navy was never fully manned, and the increase manning the Navy got came mostly from cuts in Army end strength.

The military vote is not a lock for Trump. Many disagree with his policies of retreat as they see it in the Middle East and Afghanistan. But many agree.

Also the 'military vote' includes about 1/4 of those votes are from spouses.

If anything, the 'military' overseas vote is always an uncertainty for a Presidential election, and there is NO WAY to determine how the actual votes ended up being cast in most places.

Where military votes are identifiable as the majority of absentee ballots in the past I have only seen that they tend to mirror the community where the person is voting.

I voted absentee in rural Arkansas as a military careerist in the elections between 1972 and 1988. After 1988, I was able to change my residency and voting to Dallas, TX. Career military tend to move their residence to a place with (1) no income tax, or lower income tax if possible. Or to where they want to retire.

Young military tend to keep their official residence where they were raised.

Near Savannah/ Hinesville, Columbus or the Navy Boomer base at St Mary's the military vote may include a lot of careerist. I doubt that a significant percentage of military votes in the Atlanta/ Fulton county area are from careerists.
Last edited by rfields5421 on Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
aerosreenivas
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:46 am

Antaras wrote:
Does anyone know when would Georgia officially call the winner? And when would the Nevadans leave the casinos and finish the counting stuff?


In Georgia, there is 1% of the 'Outstanding Vote' left and in Nevada, 11% more of the counting remaining to decide on the winner. This is the latest CNN update.
 
rfields5421
Posts: 6374
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:45 am

Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:46 am

Antaras wrote:
Does anyone know when would Georgia officially call the winner? And when would the Nevadans leave the casinos and finish the counting stuff?


No state officially "Calls" a winner.

They report vote totals. At some time late in November or early December the State Secretary of State (in most states) will send a certified total of the votes in the popular election to the federal government.

When the names of the electors are forwarded to the federal elections officials is the only time a state makes an official statement of who won. That is not required until Dec 12, though most states will do so before Dec 8.
 
rfields5421
Posts: 6374
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:45 am

Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:49 am

aerosreenivas wrote:
When Trump looses the election, will the authorities be able to move him away from the White House if he refuses to transfer peacefully?

In all probability it looks that way. His last night press conference seems to suggest that only.


Assuming Biden wins, if President Trump refuses to attend the inauguration ceremony on Jan 20, after Biden takes the oath, the Secret Service will inform him that he no longer is authorized to be in the White House and grounds, and assist him in leaving.

Even if Trump takes the oath of office from someone else, the Secret Service will go by the official election totals in Congress in early Jan.

He can leave 'under protest' but he will leave. Along with all of his staff.
Last edited by rfields5421 on Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:52 am

Antaras wrote:
Does anyone know when would Georgia officially call the winner? And when would the Nevadans leave the casinos and finish the counting stuff?


With the margin being as tight as it is in GA, it probably won't be call until the last vote is counted.

For Nevada - it's not like its neighbor Arizona is any quicker releasing vote. The next batch in AZ will come in 11am ET tomorrow, which may not even matter if Biden take PA or even GA.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:00 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Does anyone know when would Georgia officially call the winner? And when would the Nevadans leave the casinos and finish the counting stuff?


With the margin being as tight as it is in GA, it probably won't be call until the last vote is counted.

For Nevada - it's not like its neighbor Arizona is any quicker releasing vote. The next batch in AZ will come in 11am ET tomorrow, which may not even matter if Biden take PA or even GA.

Perhaps. At that moment we would likely already know the result for both GA and PA.
 
cpd
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:06 am

rfields5421 wrote:
aerosreenivas wrote:
When Trump looses the election, will the authorities be able to move him away from the White House if he refuses to transfer peacefully?

In all probability it looks that way. His last night press conference seems to suggest that only.


Assuming Biden wins, if President Trump refuses to attend the inauguration ceremony on Jan 20, after Biden takes the oath, the Secret Service will inform him that he no longer is authorized to be in the White House and grounds, and assist him in leaving.

Even if Trump takes the oath of office from someone else, the Secret Service will go by the official election totals in Congress in early Jan.

He can leave 'under protest' but he will leave. Along with all of his staff.


It would be a shame if that happens -there must be a point where he realises this is all over and done and has to concede with some modesty, as difficult as that might be given the recent statements he has made and also those from his camp online. If he was booted out by the secret service, that would just destroy what is left of his reputation completely. Just concede when it is obvious that the results are completely clear and try to salvage some dignity.

We'll see what happens soon when the remaining counting is done.
 
anstar
Posts: 3386
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:07 am

Next Nevada update is Friday AM.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:13 am

Newest data from Google/AP shows that the gap between Trump and Biden is 2,447,224 - 2,445,321 = 1902 votes
We're gonna have a second Florida?
 
hkg82
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Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:16 am

Are we expecting all of the remaining ballots in Georgia to be counted this evening EST time Nov 5?
 
rfields5421
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Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:45 am

Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:19 am

cpd wrote:
-there must be a point where he realises this is all over and done and has to concede with some modesty, as difficult as that might be given the recent statements he has made and also those from his camp online.


Pure personal opinion and I could be wrong. - and of course contingent of Biden winning the Electoral College Vote

I think Trump leaves the White House peacefully either Jan 19 or early Jan 20. He does not allow his White House staff or other appointees to assist in the transition. It is traditional for all Cabinet Secretaries and upper level appointees to resign. Trump loyalists do not submit resignations, thus they must be fired in a 'bloodbath' by Biden in the first few days.

Trump has a perfect platform to talk about being forced out by a coup for the next four years, and a LOT of people will believe him.
 
luckyone
Posts: 4037
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:29 am

rfields5421 wrote:
cpd wrote:
-there must be a point where he realises this is all over and done and has to concede with some modesty, as difficult as that might be given the recent statements he has made and also those from his camp online.


Pure personal opinion and I could be wrong. - and of course contingent of Biden winning the Electoral College Vote

I think Trump leaves the White House peacefully either Jan 19 or early Jan 20. He does not allow his White House staff or other appointees to assist in the transition. It is traditional for all Cabinet Secretaries and upper level appointees to resign. Trump loyalists do not submit resignations, thus they must be fired in a 'bloodbath' by Biden in the first few days.

Trump has a perfect platform to talk about being forced out by a coup for the next four years, and a LOT of people will believe him.

Yup. He's writing his ticket on the speech and book circuit. Should he lose I expect he'll be a regular on a few of his favorite talk shows "When I was POTUS we did it this way," or "This wouldn't have happened if I were still POTUS." And it wouldn't surprise me were he to become an expert on election fraud.
 
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PixelPilot
Posts: 696
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:51 am

luckyone wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:
cpd wrote:
-there must be a point where he realises this is all over and done and has to concede with some modesty, as difficult as that might be given the recent statements he has made and also those from his camp online.


Pure personal opinion and I could be wrong. - and of course contingent of Biden winning the Electoral College Vote

I think Trump leaves the White House peacefully either Jan 19 or early Jan 20. He does not allow his White House staff or other appointees to assist in the transition. It is traditional for all Cabinet Secretaries and upper level appointees to resign. Trump loyalists do not submit resignations, thus they must be fired in a 'bloodbath' by Biden in the first few days.

Trump has a perfect platform to talk about being forced out by a coup for the next four years, and a LOT of people will believe him.

Yup. He's writing his ticket on the speech and book circuit. Should he lose I expect he'll be a regular on a few of his favorite talk shows "When I was POTUS we did it this way," or "This wouldn't have happened if I were still POTUS." And it wouldn't surprise me were he to become an expert on election fraud.


Who knows, maybe he'll join CNN as political commentator :lol: ?
 
luckyone
Posts: 4037
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:55 am

PixelPilot wrote:
luckyone wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:

Pure personal opinion and I could be wrong. - and of course contingent of Biden winning the Electoral College Vote

I think Trump leaves the White House peacefully either Jan 19 or early Jan 20. He does not allow his White House staff or other appointees to assist in the transition. It is traditional for all Cabinet Secretaries and upper level appointees to resign. Trump loyalists do not submit resignations, thus they must be fired in a 'bloodbath' by Biden in the first few days.

Trump has a perfect platform to talk about being forced out by a coup for the next four years, and a LOT of people will believe him.

Yup. He's writing his ticket on the speech and book circuit. Should he lose I expect he'll be a regular on a few of his favorite talk shows "When I was POTUS we did it this way," or "This wouldn't have happened if I were still POTUS." And it wouldn't surprise me were he to become an expert on election fraud.


Who knows, maybe he'll join CNN as political commentator :lol: ?

That'll teach Fox News for calling Arizona too soon. Or they'll just pay him more. Who knows.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2036
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:56 am

hkg82 wrote:
Are we expecting all of the remaining ballots in Georgia to be counted this evening EST time Nov 5?


No. But the outstanding vote are mainly in Clayton County (currently 85% for Biden, and up to 5,000 votes outstanding) and Taylor (currently 63% Trump, with maybe a couple of hundred votes outstanding).
 
Jetty
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Joined: Wed Nov 11, 2015 12:27 pm

Re: Official Election thread

Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:56 am

Klaus wrote:
dragon-wings wrote:
cpd wrote:
I'm struggling to keep track with the different outlets giving slightly different numbers, which states does Biden need to get to win it - if he gets PA, does that mean it's all over, or does he need Arizona too?


If Biden win PA it is over. Biden can still win if he does not win PA, he would need to win AZ and NV.

Georgia alone would do it, too, as far as I've understood: Trump needs both PA and GA to still win!

No it doesn't. GA alone means 269 and a tie.

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