Betting odds for the three remaining relevant states:

Michigan: -1000
Nevada: -1000
Wisconsin: -1600

If you truly believe Trump can win any of those three, which is required for him to win the election, you can make a fortune if you’re legally permitted to place such a bet.

rfields5421 wrote:

But that seems to change by the minute.

I watched various networks last night and Fox News, strangely, was the one that seemed the most competent and stood by every single one of their projections. They called AZ for Biden early, and stand by that call 100%.

rfields5421 wrote:

Okay, I see that from Fox News which has called ME2 for Biden.

Strange that Fox is projecting a more likely win than ABC/ CBS/ CNN. But that seems to change by the minute.

Fox has more freedom to call such in this situation. The others are considered "more liberal" and so would be accused of showing favoritism. Certainly can't say the for Fox.

Tugg

Biden lead in MI now +0.3%. It was 0.2% an hour ago.
Biden lead in WI appears solid, now at 0.63%.
Trump may be "out of votes".

winginit wrote:

Sorry for your loss.

I didn't lose anything. I have a great job till retirement. If Biden wins the only people that lose are the younger people working or looking for work. You wanted Socialism well be careful what you wish for you are going to get it.

Disappointed, to be sure, but if it’s the will of the people, so be it.

This is just Act I, however.

Act II begins around the time Trump concedes and Biden makes a victory speech. That’s when, sometime between then and January 20th, the mainstream media will start slowly and deliberately taking a keen interest in that laptop Hunter forgot to pick up.

I suspect the goal will be for Act III, on or shortly after January 20th, for Biden to step aside “for the good of the nation and his family” and the media’s probe of the laptop will result in ushering in President Kamala Harris.

NIKV69 wrote:

winginit wrote:

Sorry for your loss.

I didn't lose anything. I have a great job till retirement. If Biden wins the only people that lose are the younger people working or looking for work. You wanted Socialism well be careful what you wish for you are going to get it.

With a 51-49 or 50-50 Senate? C'mon man, this socialism nonsense is just getting silly.

NIKV69 wrote:

You wanted Socialism well be careful what you wish for you are going to get it.

Oh my you’re totally right! That is, after all, why Bernie Sanders won the nomination and the Presidency. I’d forgotten!

EA CO AS wrote:

That’s when, sometime between then and January 20th, the mainstream media will start slowly and deliberately taking a keen interest in that laptop Hunter forgot to pick up.

I suspect the goal will be for Act III, on or shortly after January 20th, for Biden to step aside “for the good of the nation and his family” and the media’s probe of the laptop will result in ushering in President Kamala Harris.

Oh right the Hunter Biden laptop! That’s the one that was flown across the country to the blind man right? That’ll be the dagger! Will that be around the same time Donald is escorted to his cell in an orange jumper?

Comical, but hey if it results in President Harris - great!

NIKV69 wrote:

You wanted Socialism well be careful what you wish for you are going to get it.

You are reading the electorate wrong, imo.
Did Arizonans want socialism by handing the state to Biden?
To give you an idea, I have voted straight Dem in every election since 2004 (my first).
This year, I voted for Biden/Harris, but for every down-ballot race, I voted for Republicans.
People (outside of the AOCs of the world) want competent, functional gov't.
Not chaos.

EA CO AS wrote:

the mainstream media will start slowly and deliberately taking a keen interest in that laptop Hunter forgot to pick up. .

it is a story neither the Wallstreet Journal nor Fox News wanted to run with, so it is unlikely that we hear much about that story again.

best regards
Thomas

EA CO AS wrote:

Disappointed, to be sure, but if it’s the will of the people, so be it.

This is just Act I, however.
[...]

Take this for what it is: As long as the result is no Trump in the White House then I am OK and believe the nation is better off. I am embarrassed that the Republican's have held their tongue on him for this long. If this election turns as you indicate, I will be curious to see if any/how many Republican's release their shackles to Trump.

Tugg

I’m making a no further surprise assumption about PA, Nevada, GA and NC. That could be wrong to do.

Biden campaign expected to make victory speech today, per campaign manager. They see a clear path to 270 by the end of the day, and I agree. They sit at 238. WI+MI+NV puts them over the finish line.

ArcticSEA wrote:

Biden campaign expected to make victory speech today, per campaign manager. They see a clear path to 270 by the end of the day, and I agree. They sit at 238. WI+MI+NV puts them over the finish line.

The aneurism that Trump is going to have in response to that victory speech, should it happen, is going to be legendary, pathetic, and frankly the perfect way for his single term in office to essentially conclude.

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Well, it seems things are becoming tighter, and a Biden win is now apparently more likely according to betting markets.
Now the question will be, how is Biden going to do with a Republican controlled senate and his ambitious agenda? I guess he will have to resort to the pen, and the Supreme court will keep a check on that.

As for the House, interesting how Republicans appeared to gain seats, when it was expected the opposite. Its going to be tough in 2022 when the electorate votes for the contrary party in congress so the House can become Republican in 2022.

Sorry Democrats, no GND, no court packing... no tax increases etc. Its going to be a caretaker government for 4 years if Biden wins.

So, we are setting us up for 2024 where another Republican can take the WH. I am willing to live with this.

One wonders where this kind of analysis comes from. Biden's statements indicate he wants to work across the aisle. Have you reserved the same criticism for the current WH?

Trump is the biggest user of the pen since Clinton. GWB - 291 in 8 years. BHO - 276 in 8 years. DJT? 192 in 3.8 years.

As for 2022 and 2024, the GOP only performed well in this cycle via a massive rural turnout drive. They are getting killed in the suburbs with each successive election - 2016 wasn't great, 2018 was worse, the results from this cycle are ostensibly worse for them than 2018.

It wasn't Trump who had huge ambitions and goals as Biden and the Democrats. You all were counting on getting the senate for that, now that is all gone. Thankfully.

As for this cycle, down-vote the GOP did much better than what was expected, keeping the senate and even gaining some seats from Pelosi. And in 2022 is going to be better if Biden win.

So 4 years of Biden in the WH not getting anything of what they promised their base, is going to be a turn out killer in 2022 and 2024 for Democrats.

Bottom line, not happy of the possibility of losing the WH, but I am happy we are keeping the Senate to keep the radicals in check. And we got ACB in there to keep the judiciary as a check on the executive whilst they abuse of the pen.

Foxnews just went blue for WI. Based on their projections, Biden is the likely victor. Votes still being counted though.

If they are right, I do predict Trump will be a very sore loser.

Tugg

ArcticSEA wrote:

Biden campaign expected to make victory speech today, per campaign manager. They see a clear path to 270 by the end of the day, and I agree. They sit at 238. WI+MI+NV puts them over the finish line.

NV won't be called till tomorrow, when they finish counting. So they will do this prematurely.

NIKV69 wrote:

You wanted Socialism well be careful what you wish for you are going to get it.

Nothing about Biden is "socialist" or promotes "socialism". The affordable care act isn't socialism. Higher tax rates for the rich aren't socialism. environmental protection isn't socialism...

You guys through the word "socialism" around like candy, without having the slightest clue about what it actually means.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

It wasn't Trump who had huge ambitions and goals as Biden and the Democrats.

You’re exactly right. Trump had far more modest ambitions like...

winning a second term...
or repealing Obamacare...
or containing North Korea and Iran...
or building a wall along the southern border...

None of which he achieved or ever will achieve. Yet another failed one term Republican candidate.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

ArcticSEA wrote:

Biden campaign expected to make victory speech today, per campaign manager. They see a clear path to 270 by the end of the day, and I agree. They sit at 238. WI+MI+NV puts them over the finish line.

NV won't be called till tomorrow, when they finish counting. So they will do this prematurely.

Premature victory speeches? Sounds familiar!

AirWorthy99 wrote:

NV won't be called till tomorrow, when they finish counting. So they will do this prematurely.

Clark and Washoe are not going for Trump. NV is in the bag for Biden.
(Biden won Arizona! Hello...anyone home?)

AirWorthy99 wrote:

It wasn't Trump who had huge ambitions and goals as Biden and the Democrats. You all were counting on getting the senate for that, now that is all gone. Thankfully.

As for this cycle, down-vote the GOP did much better than what was expected, keeping the senate and even gaining some seats from Pelosi. And in 2022 is going to be better if Biden win.

So 4 years of Biden in the WH not getting anything of what they promised their base, is going to be a turn out killer in 2022 and 2024 for Democrats.

Bottom line, not happy of the possibility of losing the WH, but I am happy we are keeping the Senate to keep the radicals in check. And we got ACB in there to keep the judiciary as a check on the executive whilst they abuse of the pen.

And of course Trumplicans will forget that everything Trump did they supported as OK, and it will now be completely unacceptable for any president to ever do anything like that!

"Hold the tape" is proof that a Republican's and particularly a Trumplican's word means nothing. It is a sad time to be a Republican with the leadership and extreme elements we have now. This is not speaking of Dems, they can be just as bad, but we are talking about Republicans right now. Can you admit they've done disreputable things? If not then you can't complain if the Dems do the same, you support that in fact.

Tugg

ArcticSEA wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

NV won't be called till tomorrow, when they finish counting. So they will do this prematurely.

Clark and Washoe are not going for Trump. NV is in the bag for Biden.
(Biden won Arizona! Hello...anyone home?)

AZ still has 400K ballots to count.

flipdewaf wrote:

winginit wrote:

Joe Biden has officially received more votes for President of the United States than any candidate in history.

His leads in Wisconsin and Michigan also now exceed Trump’s margins of victory in 2016.

PPVRA wrote:

If I’m following the data right, Michigan’s 11th district will either crown Trump or this thing might go to the House.

It would appear you are not following the data right. There is no longer any scenario where the election is a tie and thus goes to the house if that’s what you’re implying.

Wisconsin and Michigan will be called within the next couple of hours. They will both be called for Joe Biden, effectively ending the election under the assumption that Biden wins Nevada, which he will.

I hope Biden announces that he has the most bigly win in history!

Lead in MI just opened up by another 30,000 votes. Word from the 45 campaign is that they are renaming the state to Michigone...

EA CO AS wrote:

ArcticSEA wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

NV won't be called till tomorrow, when they finish counting. So they will do this prematurely.

Clark and Washoe are not going for Trump. NV is in the bag for Biden.
(Biden won Arizona! Hello...anyone home?)

AZ still has 400K ballots to count.

Just sharing what FoxNews thinks. They have AZ called already. The votes are there and need to be counted but Fox has AZ as this:
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results

Tugg

EA CO AS wrote:

AZ still has 400K ballots to count.

Fox News decision desk stands by their call "100%".

EA CO AS wrote:

ArcticSEA wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

NV won't be called till tomorrow, when they finish counting. So they will do this prematurely.

Clark and Washoe are not going for Trump. NV is in the bag for Biden.
(Biden won Arizona! Hello...anyone home?)

AZ still has 400K ballots to count.

and? California still has hundreds of thousands of votes to count but we know the Presidential outcome there in the same way we know it for Arizona (and, frankly, Nevada)

I guess Trump did imply that we should stop counting votes though, so maybe we should do that in Arizona? But oh wait not for Pennsylvania or Michigan? Comical. His speech last night will be parodied for decades.

Biden lead in MI now +0.6%.

Really to me, the big story will be the results of the remaining one million plus ballots in Pennsylvania.

Tugg

Tugger wrote:

Foxnews just went blue for WI. Based on their projections, Biden is the likely victor. Votes still being counted though.

If they are right, I do predict Trump will be a very sore loser.

Tugg

He's already losing his shit on Twitter - two tweets with warnings on them in the last 45 minutes.

Tugger wrote:

Really to me, the big story will be the results of the remaining one million plus ballots in Pennsylvania.

Tugg

What’s very interesting to me is that Fox News is not seemingly ramping up to contest the election, and in fact they’ve gone through hoops to back their Arizona call while under attack from the Trump campaign. In the coming hours or maybe tomorrow at the latest, it seems as though they’ll follow other networks (or even lead them?) in calling this election for Joe Biden.

Seems clear Trump will contest the election on no sensible grounds whatsoever, but will it even matter at all even for the sake of headlines if Fox News isn’t on board?

Tugger wrote:

Really to me, the big story will be the results of the remaining one million plus ballots in Pennsylvania.

Tugg

Yes, but hopefully PA won't be "needed" to finish Trump off.

ArcticSEA wrote:

Tugger wrote:

Really to me, the big story will be the results of the remaining one million plus ballots in Pennsylvania.

Tugg

Yes, but hopefully PA won't be "needed" to finish Trump off.

Yes, but 290 to 248 would "feel" better than 270 - 268.

Lots of ballots still to be counted. Not wanting to get ahead of what is really being reported and real results.

Tugg

Think no matter who wins there really isn't much of a mandate for anything. May be a good realigning election; seems a lot of regions are getting more populist-Republican and others want more progressive policies. Also, party may not track as well with minority race anymore.

MI vote now nearly all in, with only a handful of counties around Detroit remaining. Biden lead expected to grow further. Trump appears to have lost Michigan.

The postmortem on the polling in various states will be interesting. Obviously things are going to shift somewhat as the last votes are counted but there are some odd splits between states that would seem to be relatively well correlated.

For example out west Arizona and New Mexico look like they'll end up pretty close to the polling average (Biden +2.5% in AZ and +11.7% in NM) but Nevada is looking like a wider miss with the final polling average having 5.4% lead for Biden. What's different with Nevada?

The upper midwest again is all over the place. Minnesota looks like the polling was good with Biden having a 9.2% edge in the final average and results tracking close to that, but next door neighbor Wisconsin was an 8.4% Biden edge and he obviously won't get close to that. How are those two so divergent?

Georgia was Biden up 1.2% so although he may not win it the polling didn't miss by much. But next door in Florida it's looking closer to a 5% miss.

One thing I would say is that there seems to be a pattern in the presidential and Senate results. Despite all that's happened over the campaign most seem to have basically gone close to their partisan lean. Trump held the Republican base intact and was able to get turnout to match the increase in turnout Biden and Democrats saw, and that's why the landslide many expected with the huge early voting turnout for Democrats has not happened.

WI, MI, NV if Bidens wins them, will win the electoral race. Trump can't win winning the remaining rest of the states. Though WI is neck and neck.

Aaron747 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

Foxnews just went blue for WI. Based on their projections, Biden is the likely victor. Votes still being counted though.

If they are right, I do predict Trump will be a very sore loser.

Tugg

He's already losing his shit on Twitter - two tweets with warnings on them in the last 45 minutes.

If I were him I fight for these elections which are very tight. NV is not a done deal and AZ still has too many votes out there.

Pollsters and the MSM for weeks had declared Biden the winner, why should we trust them now?

I think is not over yet.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

Foxnews just went blue for WI. Based on their projections, Biden is the likely victor. Votes still being counted though.

If they are right, I do predict Trump will be a very sore loser.

Tugg

He's already losing his shit on Twitter - two tweets with warnings on them in the last 45 minutes.

If I were him I fight for these elections which are very tight. NV is not a done deal and AZ still has too many votes out there.

Pollsters and the MSM for weeks had declared Biden the winner, why should we trust them now?

I think is not over yet.

Fight how exactly? We wait until the ballots are counted, and then we have a result.

He’s surely shot himself in the foot on the credibility front after last night’s charade of a speech.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Pollsters and the MSM for weeks had declared Biden the winner, why should we trust them now?

I am referring to FoxNews and what they are showing and projecting. Do you trust FoxNews? I am not saying anything beyond what is being presented as possibilities.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

I think is not over yet.

Correct, it is not over yet. Ballots still being counted.

Tugg

Lilienthal wrote:

NIKV69 wrote:

You wanted Socialism well be careful what you wish for you are going to get it.

Nothing about Biden is "socialist" or promotes "socialism". The affordable care act isn't socialism. Higher tax rates for the rich aren't socialism. environmental protection isn't socialism...

You guys through the word "socialism" around like candy, without having the slightest clue about what it actually means.

So true.

Tugger wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Pollsters and the MSM for weeks had declared Biden the winner, why should we trust them now?

I am referring to FoxNews and what they are showing and projecting. Do you trust FoxNews? I am not saying anything beyond what is being presented as possibilities.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

I think is not over yet.

Correct, it is not over yet. Ballots still being counted.

Tugg

AZ Is not done yet, in all honesty I couldnt comprehend Trump losing this so early on.

NV Has votes from Trump friendly areas still pending to count.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

AZ Is not done yet, in all honesty I couldnt comprehend Trump losing this so early on.

93,509 of them?

Republicans bandy about the S word in the same manner as they accuse democrats of using that other R word against them. Both usages are stupid and any educated person can see through the obvious gross caricaturing, but sadly many Americans are in fact not that well-educated, or at the very least are easily charmed by facile oral hashtags. I have heard in every election that if a democrat wins you will get Socialism. Do people think we are that stupid? First of all, Biden is nowhere remotely a far-left democrat, he is more of a Clinton. So that right there destroys the argument. Even if he was a Bernie style candidate, this is a country that still has a Congress and 50 states as far as I remember, making any implementation of socialist policies highly unlikely. And even if by some impossible universe materializing, the president elect was actually a socialist and not only that, he swept into power in a landslide where the Senate and House both had massive blue majorities to pass all the doomsday socialist policies, the states can still do quite a lot to stymy them. And even if not, guess what? There is another election in two years, which would likely lead to a red landslide and quick reversal of such policies.

So this scare-mongering about socialism coming soon is about as accurate as Christian predictions of the end of the world since circa Nero was the leader of the world.

LH658 wrote:

WI, MI, NV if Bidens wins them, will win the electoral race. Trump can't win winning the remaining rest of the states. Though WI is neck and neck.

The Wisconsin elections commission administrator has stated that all ballots have been counted

Joe Biden has a lead of 20,000 votes.

Michigan Secretary of State says there will be a final but not necessarily yet certified final count by the end of the day.

ArcticSEA wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

AZ Is not done yet, in all honesty I couldnt comprehend Trump losing this so early on.

93,509 of them?

NBC CNN none have called it for Biden yet.

Trump team might know why, and Fox might be wrong.

If Trump gets AZ or even NV, MI and WI are not needed

AirWorthy99 wrote:

ArcticSEA wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

AZ Is not done yet, in all honesty I couldnt comprehend Trump losing this so early on.

93,509 of them?

NBC CNN none have called it for Biden yet.

Trump team might know why, and Fox might be wrong.

If Trump gets AZ or even NV, MI and WI are not needed

You’re leaving out the very large caveat that for MI or WI not to matter Trump would have to win Pennsylvania.

winginit wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

ArcticSEA wrote:

93,509 of them?

NBC CNN none have called it for Biden yet.

Trump team might know why, and Fox might be wrong.

If Trump gets AZ or even NV, MI and WI are not needed

You’re leaving out the very large caveat that for MI or WI not to matter Trump would have to win Pennsylvania.

Yep, where he is ahead currently.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

winginit wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

NBC CNN none have called it for Biden yet.

Trump team might know why, and Fox might be wrong.

If Trump gets AZ or even NV, MI and WI are not needed

You’re leaving out the very large caveat that for MI or WI not to matter Trump would have to win Pennsylvania.

Yep, where he is ahead currently.

We all know what he’s going to try and message, which is that vote counting should continue in AZ (it will) and NV (it will) but stop in PA and GA (they won’t)

He can’t have it both ways, and of course his campaign is going to continue to exude confidence - they’re terrified of how their boss will try and ruin them by blaming them once he faces the reality that he’s lost.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Pollsters and the MSM for weeks had declared Biden the winner, why should we trust them now?

I think is not over yet.

Which MSM are you talking about? CNN, MSNBC and most outright liberal media had emphasized the closeness of the election and the need for everyone to vote. Most media and campaigns know that saying someone is a winner before the polls close results in a net lower number of votes for the 'winner' because people decide they do not need to vote.

And a net greater number of votes for the presumed loser because there is incentive to get his/her supporters to the polls.

======================

There will be court battles, but folks need to remember the key part of Bush v Gore from 2000. The Supreme Court largely said the election and certifying results is up to the individual states. They were not going to over turn state courts rulings on voting procedures.

Trump is perfectly positioned for the rest of his life to be the voice of anger over a 'stolen' election. And another big plus for him is that he does not have to deal with the results of COVID, unhappy voters, or supporters who did not vote.

He will not have to explain his paper economy and worst deficit spending in history causing major economic disruption for years. His failure to seriously address health care (which I can't blame him personally for - too much of Congress on both sides of the aisle is in the pockets of the health insurance industry). His failure to deal with the infrastructure. His gutting of support for members of the military and their families by diverting money from housing and other quality of life projects to the border wall. His diverting money from federal forest cleanup and management in many states like California which contribute to the wildfires, and on and on.

Everything negative for the next X years will be Biden's fault.

Were he worried about money, he would be able to make more than Reagan or Clinton ever did.

But it is about ego for him. He will milk that for the rest of his life. If he stays in office, he will start the criticism the day he leaves office in 2025. Doesn't matter if it is a Democrat or Republican who suceeds him.

-----------------

Fox News is in a difficult situation. They have crossed Trump several times in what he sees as disloyalty, but the fake cries about Main Stream Media (of which they are a leading part) still resound with many.

It has been difficult for them to support Trump 100% when his position on things changes from day to day. And some of his outright lies like 'massive voter fraud'.

It is a lot easier, and maybe more profitable, for Fox to have a Democrat in the White House where they can complain, complain and complain and never have to deal with a real failure of a plan they supported.

I don't see a path for Trump here. He is walled-off in many states.
Trump has to make up the following deficits:
-20697 WI
-34769 MI
-93509 AZ
- 7647 NV
-77518 ME
Looks like a 271 Biden win right now.
Time will tell.