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DocLightning
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:58 pm

art wrote:
Agreed, But if the test with the same small prime dose ts repeated in a larger number of candidates similar results (about 90% immunity) can be expected.


Not necessarily and also that was a very small group of 3,000 patients, so inadequate sample size. They need to continue the project. I do think that there is potential for that approach, but they need to figure out how to make it work.

I'm not OK with shipping an inadequately proven vaccine to the third world just because it's cheap. Let's see how the J&J Ad26 candidate does. We may have a problem with using AdV, or it might just be two doses of ChAdOx1 (SAdY25).
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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lowwkjax
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:01 pm

I think the concerns about the Astra Zeneca vaccine are a little bit of an overreaction. We’re talking about efficiency, not safety, as it didn’t cause severe side effects regardless of the amount given. So why should it (= 1/2 first, 1/1 second shot) not get authorized for a limited group of people, e.g. people under 55? It will provide AT LEAST 60% efficiency for them, most probably even more, according to the studies. There are hundreds of millions of doses available and those given the Astra Zeneca vaccine would free up capacities of other safe ones for those who are over 55, until a new study is completed providing enough information about the Astra Zeneca one for elderly people. How’s that sound and Doc, would you approve this / think this would be a decent approach?
 
sevenheavy
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:08 pm

lowwkjax wrote:
I think the concerns about the Astra Zeneca vaccine are a little bit of an overreaction. We’re talking about efficiency, not safety, as it didn’t cause severe side effects regardless of the amount given. So why should it (= 1/2 first, 1/1 second shot) not get authorized for a limited group of people, e.g. people under 55? It will provide AT LEAST 60% efficiency for them, most probably even more, according to the studies. There are hundreds of millions of doses available and those given the Astra Zeneca vaccine would free up capacities of other safe ones for those who are over 55, until a new study is completed providing enough information about the Astra Zeneca one for elderly people. How’s that sound and Doc, would you approve this / think this would be a decent approach?


Firstly, thanks to Doc for taking the time to explain the science and progress behind vaccine development and rollout in a way that has been both fascinating and (relatively!) easy to understand. I’ve looked forward to your updates and you’ve really given me some optimism that we’re going to beat this disease sooner rather than later.

No such medical experience here, but I do agree that the concerns seem overblown.

Go back a month or so and set aside the incredible efficacy results from Pfizer and Moderna for a moment. From what I can tell 62% beats most flu vaccines efficacy and is towards the upper end of what those in the medical profession (and the rest of the world) were hoping for..it also exceeds the efficacy threshold set by the FDA and other regulatory bodies. In isolation we’d have welcomed 62% with open arms, and a glass of champagne!

It seems that it’s only the 90% claim for the patients who received the 1.5 dose trial is being called into question, and I understand why that might be discounted for now but 62% for the double dose patients had much higher numbers of volunteers and is largely supported?

If that’s the case, and given that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine is on the market for perhaps 10% of the cost of the Pfizer vaccine and has much less complicated logistical and storage demands, surely it has a place in the global rollout? If I were looking at a vaccination program for a country with a high proportion of rural or remote population I can buy 10m AstraZeneca vaccines for the price of 1m from Pfizer (to say nothing of the far higher cost of distribution) and I have a much better chance of getting it to those who need it in a usable condition, and at a fraction of the cost?

Not to take away anything from any of the vaccine companies (not that they’d care what I think anyway!) but to me all three have a place in beating this disease.
So long 701, it was nice knowing you.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:17 pm

art wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
art wrote:
Inferior in protective performance? Yes - 90% immunity demonstrated against around 95% demonstrated by Pfizer and Moderna.


That 90% number is a bit problematic given that it occurred in a small subset of patients under age 55 given a mistakenly small prime dose.


Agreed, But if the test with the same small prime dose ts repeated in a larger number of candidates similar results (about 90% immunity) can be expected.

My main concern is that a refusal to license emergency use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine using the same small prime dose protocol will delay millions of people being vaccinated in a manner giving a high degree of protection. Is there any chance of it being approved for use in people under the age of 55 at this point?

I would argue the issues with the research study with the AstraZeneca vaccine indicates more due diligence is required for their vaccine due to the anomalous results.

We already have two vaccines that have passed their trials and appear effective,and I'm aware that the Janssen vaccine is also approaching approval status (Janssen has requested Health Canada's approval earlier today). And the Janssen vaccine is apparently a one dose vaccine, so it should be even easier to roll out.
 
art
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:07 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
I would argue the issues with the research study with the AstraZeneca vaccine indicates more due diligence is required for their vaccine due to the anomalous results. .


What about continuing the experiment with a larger number of subjects in the UK - say 2,500.000 get the 2 doses that showed 60ish% immunity while 2,500,000 get the 'mistaken' doses that showed 90ish% immunity? Can easily be double blind by shipping different dose combinations to different vaccination centres.

For -

a lot of data would be gathered
a lot of people would gain immunity earlier than otherwise
production and distribution snags could be ironed out
vaccination logistical problems could be exposed and addressed

Against -

???
 
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DocLightning
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:09 am

art wrote:
What about continuing the experiment


Bingo. That's exactly what I want.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:12 am

sevenheavy wrote:
If that’s the case, and given that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine is on the market for perhaps 10% of the cost of the Pfizer vaccine and has much less complicated logistical and storage demands, surely it has a place in the global rollout?


What if I told you that having had that less effective vaccine will blunt your immune response to a different, more effective vaccine? I'm not saying that's the case here, but if you've had GARDASIL 4 and then get GARDASIL 9, the immune response to the five additional strains is somewhat blunted. So it's a possibility and we have absolutely no data to suggest that this would or wouldn't be the case.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Francoflier
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:28 am

Pfizer's vaccine just got official approval... Now the logistical nightmare begins.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:50 am

Francoflier wrote:
Pfizer's vaccine just got official approval... Now the logistical nightmare begins.


Sorry, I should mention that it is only the UK which has approved it so far. First country to do so.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55145696
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
art
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:45 am

DocLightning wrote:
art wrote:
What about continuing the experiment


Bingo. That's exactly what I want.


Are you suggesting using the dosage protocol that showed about 90% immunity? In testing drugs/vsccines, is there a minimum number of people on which it needs to be tested to achieve an acceptiable level of confidence in the results?

I hope that there is not a delay of several months in a 90% effective Astra Zeneca vaccine hitting the streets.

And great news that the Pfizer vaccine has been cleared for use in the UK. We can finally start protecting medics and care workers.
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:25 am

I have just read the who gets vaccinated and when rules for the UK on the BBC website

NHS staff and patients are likely to get the vaccine first because storage of the jab at freezing temperatures is easiest in hospitals.

When more doses are delivered, the first phase of the vaccination programme in the UK will start.

As part of this phase, the order of groups to be given the vaccine has been announced by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI):

residents in a care home for older adults and their carers
everyone aged 80 and over, and frontline health and social care workers
everyone aged 75 and over
everyone aged 70 and over, and those who are clinically extremely vulnerable
everyone aged 65 and over
people aged 16 to 64 with underlying health conditions which put them at higher risk of serious disease and death from Covid-19
everyone aged 60 and over
everyone aged 55 and over
everyone aged 50 and over


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:04 pm

I wonder if those who have contracted the virus already still benefit from getting vaccinated and, if not, if they'll be excluded or at least put lower down the priority list.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:20 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I wonder if those who have contracted the virus already still benefit from getting vaccinated and, if not, if they'll be excluded or at least put lower down the priority list.


Good questions.

Also, what happens if you get vaccinated while already infected? Can it make matters worse? I suppose that this will happen, given that this is an infection which does not always produce symptoms.
 
sevenheavy
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:02 pm

DocLightning wrote:
sevenheavy wrote:
If that’s the case, and given that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine is on the market for perhaps 10% of the cost of the Pfizer vaccine and has much less complicated logistical and storage demands, surely it has a place in the global rollout?


What if I told you that having had that less effective vaccine will blunt your immune response to a different, more effective vaccine? I'm not saying that's the case here, but if you've had GARDASIL 4 and then get GARDASIL 9, the immune response to the five additional strains is somewhat blunted. So it's a possibility and we have absolutely no data to suggest that this would or wouldn't be the case.


If that is the case (I'll defer to you on that one), then I guess that's a risk. I understand why Pfizer and Moderna are better bets for countries or locations that can support and afford the more complicated logistical demands associated with the cold storage and transportation.

It just seems that in isolation we'd have welcomed a vaccine with even the lower end 62% efficacy. Its easier to distribute, Massively cheaper and could have a place in the rollout
So long 701, it was nice knowing you.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:57 pm

Does anyone have the weekly or monthly production volumes of the vaccines? How many doses are they able to make and distribute?
(Once each gets approval, I assume that each are producing at full volume right now and stockpiling till able to release.)

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
meecrob
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:17 pm

sevenheavy wrote:
It just seems that in isolation we'd have welcomed a vaccine with even the lower end 62% efficacy.


You must be from New Zealand or some other country that didn't totally fuck up their response to Covid. People here are setting up groups whose mandate is "we don't trust vaccines" which is funny because none of them have polio or smallpox.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:26 pm

Tugger wrote:
Does anyone have the weekly or monthly production volumes of the vaccines? How many doses are they able to make and distribute?
(Once each gets approval, I assume that each are producing at full volume right now and stockpiling till able to release.)

Tugg

I recall reading that it was roughly 30 million/month for the US.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:23 am

flyguy89 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Does anyone have the weekly or monthly production volumes of the vaccines? How many doses are they able to make and distribute?
(Once each gets approval, I assume that each are producing at full volume right now and stockpiling till able to release.)

Tugg

I recall reading that it was roughly 30 million/month for the US.


When it comes to production and distribution, there is another factor to consider.
Vaccines are fragile products, especially this new generation of Covid vaccines which require strict and demanding storage and shipping conditions.

I remember reading somewhere that for other vaccines which require an unbroken cold chain for distribution, the amount of doses spoiled or rendered ineffective by the time they reach the patient may sometimes be up to 50%.
I suspect that rate would be much lower for large scale distribution to hospitals not too distant from the production centers, but as the vaccination campaigns move further outside of urban areas, there will be a lot more challenges. The higher temperature vaccines stand a better chance at effective penetration in rural areas and less developed countries IMO, and they will be crucial for that.

In any case, the production figures will only give a partial indication of the actual inoculation rate.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:54 am

art wrote:
Are you suggesting using the dosage protocol that showed about 90% immunity? In testing drugs/vsccines, is there a minimum number of people on which it needs to be tested to achieve an acceptiable level of confidence in the results?


I'd want to see a new study with at least 10,000 per arm using the half-prime/full-boost regimen.

I also want to see if this candidate works better when administered nasally or inhaled. It is an adenovirus, after all.
-Doc Lightning-

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Waterbomber2
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:23 am

DocLightning wrote:
art wrote:
What about continuing the experiment


Bingo. That's exactly what I want.


What I wonder is whether the test subjects of each vaccines will continue to be followed and for how long, to see how long and how much the vaccine stays effective.
We also need not forget that a vaccine that stops being effective after 2 months or IMO even 6 months is useless in this case, as you can't vaccinate enough people before you need to vaccinate them all over again.


The flu vaccines' effectiveness typically starts fading after 3 months, and that's after we've had them for ages. Plus, the flu is a seasonal disease while Covid is clearly not.

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-f ... -shot-last


I still think that a tight lockdown and closed borders, followed by travel bubbles between countries that eradicated the virus will be a much more certain measure and that the pursuit of vaccines is a distraction that is sending us on a wild goose chase resulting only in extending the duration of this crisis.
Would love to be proven wrong, but so far that hasn't happened very often in this crisis.
 
art
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:29 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The flu vaccines' effectiveness typically starts fading after 3 months, and that's after we've had them for ages. Plus, the flu is a seasonal disease while Covid is clearly not.

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-f ... -shot-last


I still think that a tight lockdown and closed borders, followed by travel bubbles between countries that eradicated the virus will be a much more certain measure and that the pursuit of vaccines is a distraction that is sending us on a wild goose chase resulting only in extending the duration of this crisis.
Would love to be proven wrong, but so far that hasn't happened very often in this crisis.


I disagree that vaccination is likely to prove a waste of time. While infection rates several months after vaccination are not known, this article encourages me.

Isolated cases of re-infection with COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, had raised concerns that immunity might be short-lived and that recovered patients may swiftly fall sick again.

But the results of this study, carried out in a cohort of UK healthcare workers - who are among those at highest risk of contracting COVID-19 - suggest cases of reinfection are likely to remain extremely rare.

“Being infected with COVID-19 does offer protection against re-infection for most people for at least six months,” Eyre said. “We found no new symptomatic infections in any of the participants who had tested positive for antibodies.”

The study, part of a major staff testing programme, covered a 30-week period between April and November 2020. Its results have not peer-reviewed by other scientists but were published before review on the MedRxiv website.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN28015L
 
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Tugger
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 2:39 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I still think that a tight lockdown and closed borders, followed by travel bubbles between countries that eradicated the virus will be a much more certain measure and that the pursuit of vaccines is a distraction that is sending us on a wild goose chase resulting only in extending the duration of this crisis.
Would love to be proven wrong, but so far that hasn't happened very often in this crisis.

That seems like a silly and completely unfounded thing to think. The vaccines have so far proven to be viable at the least and appear to be effective at least in testing and they are now being rolled out to the larger population for the real test. That is only just happening and will determine the reality so we need to let that play out. But it is looking good at this point, opposite of what you say. What you note as working has only been successful in a few single countries and any time they start to open to other nations the virus gets in and starts to spread. And severe lockdowns just kill economies (but not people). Plain and simple it is out there and the population and there needs to be a defense IN people, via our immune response, to protect the population.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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casinterest
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:49 pm

Tugger wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I still think that a tight lockdown and closed borders, followed by travel bubbles between countries that eradicated the virus will be a much more certain measure and that the pursuit of vaccines is a distraction that is sending us on a wild goose chase resulting only in extending the duration of this crisis.
Would love to be proven wrong, but so far that hasn't happened very often in this crisis.

That seems like a silly and completely unfounded thing to think. The vaccines have so far proven to be viable at the least and appear to be effective at least in testing and they are now being rolled out to the larger population for the real test. That is only just happening and will determine the reality so we need to let that play out. But it is looking good at this point, opposite of what you say. What you note as working has only been successful in a few single countries and any time they start to open to other nations the virus gets in and starts to spread. And severe lockdowns just kill economies (but not people). Plain and simple it is out there and the population and there needs to be a defense IN people, via our immune response, to protect the population.

Tugg


The vaccines will help those that are susceptible to the virus. The planned rollout will be to protect those in the demographics at risk of death, and then roll out to everyone else. Hopefully by April the deaths will be down and the vaccines will start being distributed to the general population to try to get rid of this disease.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
StarAC17
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:01 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
What I wonder is whether the test subjects of each vaccines will continue to be followed and for how long, to see how long and how much the vaccine stays effective.
We also need not forget that a vaccine that stops being effective after 2 months or IMO even 6 months is useless in this case, as you can't vaccinate enough people before you need to vaccinate them all over again.



Covid19 thankfully does not have the same characteristics that the flu which strains can mutate with each other and it is rapidly changing. Novel flu pandemics are a fact of life and happen every 10 to 20 years in reality so mRNA vaccines will actually speed up dealing with those as vaccines can be made in weeks and not months or years.

Covid19 is more in line with viruses where their vaccines do provide long term immunity MMR, Varicella zoster virus (Chickenpox/Shingles, Polio. These vaccines provide essentially sterilizing immunity but not infection, the immune system drops the hammer very quickly that you don't notice. Covid19 vaccines probably will cause an illness as bad as the reported side effects of the vaccine. A mild fever, fatigue and lethargy for a few days. If you can't live with that happening to you every now and then please live in a bubble and let the rest of us get on with life.

The flu shot while 40% to 60% effective does reduce severity of symptoms and when you are high risk is very much the difference between life and death. If the same happens with Covid19 and you get a cold or fell like crap for 2 days with no lingering effects then that's a win with a virus that will probably be endemic for humans going forward. The reality is the older and weaker one gets the more likely something like the common cold will get you and kill you. Something is going to get all of us someday.

Tugger wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I still think that a tight lockdown and closed borders, followed by travel bubbles between countries that eradicated the virus will be a much more certain measure and that the pursuit of vaccines is a distraction that is sending us on a wild goose chase resulting only in extending the duration of this crisis.
Would love to be proven wrong, but so far that hasn't happened very often in this crisis.

That seems like a silly and completely unfounded thing to think. The vaccines have so far proven to be viable at the least and appear to be effective at least in testing and they are now being rolled out to the larger population for the real test. That is only just happening and will determine the reality so we need to let that play out. But it is looking good at this point, opposite of what you say. What you note as working has only been successful in a few single countries and any time they start to open to other nations the virus gets in and starts to spread. And severe lockdowns just kill economies (but not people). Plain and simple it is out there and the population and there needs to be a defense IN people, via our immune response, to protect the population.

Tugg


:checkmark:

Also severe lockdowns do kill people if there is not public support to deal with them. We have reports of far increased opioid overdoses basically everywhere, suicides are up, domestic violence is up, crime is up, civil unrest in even the safest and richest countries is not just possible but more and more likely, and food insecurity is a huge side effect of lockdowns now across the globe.

Australia and New Zealand are not going to stay Covid free forever, even if they require vaccines for their citizens and those entering their countries. Cases will pop up here and there and hopefully they won't easily get out of control with herd immunity effectively achieved through vaccination.
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flyguy89
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:06 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
art wrote:
What about continuing the experiment


Bingo. That's exactly what I want.


What I wonder is whether the test subjects of each vaccines will continue to be followed and for how long, to see how long and how much the vaccine stays effective.

Again, read the trial protocols before making such sweeping pronouncements. Trial participants will be followed for a couple years.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
We also need not forget that a vaccine that stops being effective after 2 months or IMO even 6 months is useless in this case, as you can't vaccinate enough people before you need to vaccinate them all over again.

Given recent infection rates and that the large-scale trials have been going for roughly 5 months now, were the vaccine protection indeed that limited it's highly unlikely that wouldn't have shown up in the data by now.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:21 pm

Here is a prelim rollout plan

100 million vaccines in the US given by the end of February.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5 ... f-february

According to Slaoui, the companies have manufactured and stockpiled enough doses that the government can send 40 million doses to states in December, 60 million doses in January and 100 million doses by the end of February.


These will be given out as follows.

The U.S. is hoping to give a COVID-19 vaccine to 100 million people by the end of February, the head of the administration's Operation Warp Speed told reporters Wednesday.

Moncef Slaoui said that number essentially represents all of the nation's front line health workers, the elderly and people with underlying conditions.

he is basing the 100 million people estimate on the number of vaccines that could be available from Moderna and from Pfizer and BioNTech.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:39 pm

sevenheavy wrote:
DocLightning wrote:

What if I told you that having had that less effective vaccine will blunt your immune response to a different, more effective vaccine?


If that is the case (I'll defer to you on that one), then I guess that's a risk.


I've read this blog: "In the Pipeline" since I was in college. Here is Derek Lowe's (the author of the blog) take on combining different vaccines. The bottom line is that it might be fine; it might not be OK. We will need to wait and see what the data show us.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... t-vaccines
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:07 pm

From today in the Washington Post:

as the vaccine race heats up, poor countries could be left behind. They cannot rival the scientific or economic might of richer nations when it comes to vaccine development or procurement. Estimates from the Duke Global Health Innovation Center in Durham, N.C., suggest that some people in low-income countries may have to wait until 2024 to get vaccinated.


A cheaper easy to use vaccine with a lesser degree of protection does not seem out of order.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:33 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
What I wonder is whether the test subjects of each vaccines will continue to be followed and for how long, to see how long and how much the vaccine stays effective.
We also need not forget that a vaccine that stops being effective after 2 months or IMO even 6 months is useless in this case, as you can't vaccinate enough people before you need to vaccinate them all over again.



Covid19 thankfully does not have the same characteristics that the flu which strains can mutate with each other and it is rapidly changing. Novel flu pandemics are a fact of life and happen every 10 to 20 years in reality so mRNA vaccines will actually speed up dealing with those as vaccines can be made in weeks and not months or years.

Covid19 is more in line with viruses where their vaccines do provide long term immunity MMR, Varicella zoster virus (Chickenpox/Shingles, Polio. These vaccines provide essentially sterilizing immunity but not infection, the immune system drops the hammer very quickly that you don't notice. Covid19 vaccines probably will cause an illness as bad as the reported side effects of the vaccine. A mild fever, fatigue and lethargy for a few days. If you can't live with that happening to you every now and then please live in a bubble and let the rest of us get on with life.

The flu shot while 40% to 60% effective does reduce severity of symptoms and when you are high risk is very much the difference between life and death. If the same happens with Covid19 and you get a cold or fell like crap for 2 days with no lingering effects then that's a win with a virus that will probably be endemic for humans going forward. The reality is the older and weaker one gets the more likely something like the common cold will get you and kill you. Something is going to get all of us someday.

Tugger wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I still think that a tight lockdown and closed borders, followed by travel bubbles between countries that eradicated the virus will be a much more certain measure and that the pursuit of vaccines is a distraction that is sending us on a wild goose chase resulting only in extending the duration of this crisis.
Would love to be proven wrong, but so far that hasn't happened very often in this crisis.

That seems like a silly and completely unfounded thing to think. The vaccines have so far proven to be viable at the least and appear to be effective at least in testing and they are now being rolled out to the larger population for the real test. That is only just happening and will determine the reality so we need to let that play out. But it is looking good at this point, opposite of what you say. What you note as working has only been successful in a few single countries and any time they start to open to other nations the virus gets in and starts to spread. And severe lockdowns just kill economies (but not people). Plain and simple it is out there and the population and there needs to be a defense IN people, via our immune response, to protect the population.

Tugg


:checkmark:

Also severe lockdowns do kill people if there is not public support to deal with them. We have reports of far increased opioid overdoses basically everywhere, suicides are up, domestic violence is up, crime is up, civil unrest in even the safest and richest countries is not just possible but more and more likely, and food insecurity is a huge side effect of lockdowns now across the globe.

Australia and New Zealand are not going to stay Covid free forever, even if they require vaccines for their citizens and those entering their countries. Cases will pop up here and there and hopefully they won't easily get out of control with herd immunity effectively achieved through vaccination.


Too many unknowns to make such definitive statements.
Covid-19 has already mutated into several variants and we still don't have a clear view of the variety of strains. It's not like they are taking blood samples of every infected individual to analyse the strain.
We come in contact with many other animals that can mutate the virus and so on.
By the way I was heartbroken when I heard that Denmark was going to kill its entire captive mink population based on mutations observed. That was very ignorant and they apologised after they unnecessarily killed many.
The handling of that matter is however very reflective of governments' actions during this pandemic.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... virus-cull

We live in a society obsessed with pills, medicine, vaccines, radiation, etc...
In some rare cases it works and we can claim victory. In some cases we make things worse.
But be certain that the road to victory more often than not goes through a lot of sweat, pain, suffering and death.
The vaccine development in this case has been too smooth and easy and the results too stunning. Just as miraculous as the summer was supposed to be, remember?

The handling of this pandemic has been a huge failure from governments across the globe until now.
Every step of the way we have heard foolish things like "masks are unnecessary", "it will go away in the summer", "it will mutate into a milder variant", "you can't be reinfected", only to realise later that it was BS over BS.

Feel free to believe every foolishness that they keep spitting out, even though you know about all the BS that you have been told over the course of the past 10 months. That is your right.
It is also my right to exercise critical thinking and be skeptic about things that are being said that I have no way of verifying personally.
For instance, to a Russian ear, the efficacy spelled out by western pharma companies about their vaccines looks just as fictional as the Russian Sputnik vaccine looks to us.


The reality is that as we stand, a 20-40% effective vaccine would be realistic and marvelous. If you get enough people vaccinated, it yields some support while we work towards a more effective vaccine. Having a 95% effective vaccine 10 months into development is like being in 1971 and Airbus was presenting the A350XWB instead of the A300... It's too good to be true.
However, if they would tell people that a vaccine is only 20-40% effective, no one would take it.
Your theory is that they are telling the truth. My theory is that they are trying to get enough people to take the vaccine to build some degree of support, a strategy that I think will make matters worse.
If you are right, we should be out of the woods within a year. If I'm right, the strategy will backfire as it will make vaccinated and unvaccinated people less careful and we will also soon have headlines with vaccinated people dying of Covid and/or maybe even side effects like allergic reactions. The economic hardship will be made worse than it has to be. Then countries will resign to a hard lockdown strategy.

A coordinated hard lockdown would have ended this crisis months ago, what is allowed to happen now is what's killing people.
Every 3 days, more people are dying in the US than victims of 9/11. Every month, more people are dying from Covid in the US alone than people worldwide have been killed by terrorists over the past decade.
Just to put things in the right perspective.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 20070
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:53 pm

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I'm not an anti-vaxxer but ...


You sound like an anti-vaxxer. How are these vaccines any different from ones approved 30-40 years ago that we now take for granted?

Where is the evidence that corners have been cut? Please explain?

Another 5 years of this I might just start selling my organs...


Anyone who starts with "I'm not xxxxx, but..." is most likely xxxxx.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4116
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:15 pm

Too many unknowns to make such definitive statements.
Covid-19 has already mutated into several variants and we still don't have a clear view of the variety of strains. It's not like they are taking blood samples of every infected individual to analyse the strain.
We come in contact with many other animals that can mutate the virus and so on.


Do you know how the immune system actually works when fighting an infection?

They know about the mutated strains but have not seen any significant change to the spike protein that Covid19 uses to infect cells does that not mean we develop a vaccine now for what we see. If it works and it appears to from the trials. The fact that these vaccines focus so much on these proteins means it is very likely vaccinated people have stronger immunity than those who were infected naturally. We see this with other vaccinations.

We live in a society obsessed with pills, medicine, vaccines, radiation, etc...
In some rare cases it works and we can claim victory. In some cases we make things worse.
But be certain that the road to victory more often than not goes through a lot of sweat, pain, suffering and death.
The vaccine development in this case has been too smooth and easy and the results too stunning. Just as miraculous as the summer was supposed to be, remember?


You sound like an anti-vaxxer here and similar to Steve Jobs who rejected traditional Cancer treatment in favour of holistic methods. He died when he could have lived a lot longer.
You have some merit that there is a lot that many people can do to not be overly reliant on medicine and that has been a failure of many in the medical profession but there is room for both. Many doctors should really do much more to help people be as healthy as they can be. I would suggest reading about Dr. David Katz or watch some of his youtube videos. He talks about a lot of slow moving things that

Also with this vaccine they world had a head start, these methods were starting with the development of the Ebola and Zika vaccine as well as development from SARS and MERS which are also coronaviruses.

Feel free to believe every foolishness that they keep spitting out, even though you know about all the BS that you have been told over the course of the past 10 months. That is your right.
It is also my right to exercise critical thinking and be skeptic about things that are being said that I have no way of verifying personally.
For instance, to a Russian ear, the efficacy spelled out by western pharma companies about their vaccines looks just as fictional as the Russian Sputnik vaccine looks to us.


I do my own research and don't often listening to the media regarding things.
I believe from what I have read and watched from doctors that these vaccines are sound.

The handling of this pandemic has been a huge failure from governments across the globe until now.
Every step of the way we have heard foolish things like "masks are unnecessary", "it will go away in the summer", "it will mutate into a milder variant", "you can't be reinfected", only to realise later that it was BS over BS.


There was one idiot who said this, he is orange and will be out of a job come January 20th.

Most governments expected this wave and where they failed is that they didn't have the infrastructure in place to handle the 2nd wave well.

The reality is that as we stand, a 20-40% effective vaccine would be realistic and marvelous. If you get enough people vaccinated, it yields some support while we work towards a more effective vaccine. Having a 95% effective vaccine 10 months into development is like being in 1971 and Airbus was presenting the A350XWB instead of the A300... It's too good to be true.
However, if they would tell people that a vaccine is only 20-40% effective, no one would take it.
Your theory is that they are telling the truth. My theory is that they are trying to get enough people to take the vaccine to build some degree of support, a strategy that I think will make matters worse.
If you are right, we should be out of the woods within a year. If I'm right, the strategy will backfire as it will make vaccinated and unvaccinated people less careful and we will also soon have headlines with vaccinated people dying of Covid and/or maybe even side effects like allergic reactions. The economic hardship will be made worse than it has to be. Then countries will resign to a hard lockdown strategy.


You act like this is the first vaccine ever, lets say that the mRNA vaccine is the A350XWB, that was in devlopement

The initial attenuated polio vaccine can be like the De Havilland Comet.(fatal flaw that was fixed)
The smallpox vaccine could be the 747 (game changer)
The MMR vaccine could be equivalent to the 737/A320 (reliable and a workhorse)
This is a progressive step that of the A350XWB.

The mRNA vaccine has been in the works for decades and this accelerated development was long predicted.

A coordinated hard lockdown would have ended this crisis months ago, what is allowed to happen now is what's killing people.
Every 3 days, more people are dying in the US than victims of 9/11. Every month, more people are dying from Covid in the US alone than people worldwide have been killed by terrorists over the past decade.
Just to put things in the right perspective.


So lets put some other things into perspective.

Annual totals for the US in 2020

Cancer deaths in the United States in 2020 - 606,000
Heart disease - 859,000
Covid it is 260,000

https://www.heart.org/-/media/files/abo ... .pdf?la=en
https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/ ... er%20death.

We'll agree to disagree on the need for a mass lockdown. I think common sense can put this on a slow burn but many countries aren't following the advice set out by health professionals and those same health professionals are not giving strong advice. Many countries are also unwilling or unable to support their people with aid to make a lockdown actually work. Furthermore there can easily be a system where the young and healthy can be put back into society and those at risk primarily the elderly are isolated and protected. That has been a huge fail in this, however if a vaccine is given to primary care workers who often bring Covid into care homes from the outside this might rather quickly take the strain of hospitals.

This is a lesson for the virus that is coming where that may be required, one that has a 20% mortality that kills a 25 year old just like it would an 80 year old. I hope an economic pause button can be developed to deal with that when the day comes.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:43 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
Too many unknowns to make such definitive statements.
Covid-19 has already mutated into several variants and we still don't have a clear view of the variety of strains. It's not like they are taking blood samples of every infected individual to analyse the strain.
We come in contact with many other animals that can mutate the virus and so on.


Do you know how the immune system actually works when fighting an infection?

They know about the mutated strains but have not seen any significant change to the spike protein that Covid19 uses to infect cells does that not mean we develop a vaccine now for what we see. If it works and it appears to from the trials. The fact that these vaccines focus so much on these proteins means it is very likely vaccinated people have stronger immunity than those who were infected naturally. We see this with other vaccinations.

We live in a society obsessed with pills, medicine, vaccines, radiation, etc...
In some rare cases it works and we can claim victory. In some cases we make things worse.
But be certain that the road to victory more often than not goes through a lot of sweat, pain, suffering and death.
The vaccine development in this case has been too smooth and easy and the results too stunning. Just as miraculous as the summer was supposed to be, remember?


You sound like an anti-vaxxer here and similar to Steve Jobs who rejected traditional Cancer treatment in favour of holistic methods. He died when he could have lived a lot longer.
You have some merit that there is a lot that many people can do to not be overly reliant on medicine and that has been a failure of many in the medical profession but there is room for both. Many doctors should really do much more to help people be as healthy as they can be. I would suggest reading about Dr. David Katz or watch some of his youtube videos. He talks about a lot of slow moving things that

Also with this vaccine they world had a head start, these methods were starting with the development of the Ebola and Zika vaccine as well as development from SARS and MERS which are also coronaviruses.

Feel free to believe every foolishness that they keep spitting out, even though you know about all the BS that you have been told over the course of the past 10 months. That is your right.
It is also my right to exercise critical thinking and be skeptic about things that are being said that I have no way of verifying personally.
For instance, to a Russian ear, the efficacy spelled out by western pharma companies about their vaccines looks just as fictional as the Russian Sputnik vaccine looks to us.


I do my own research and don't often listening to the media regarding things.
I believe from what I have read and watched from doctors that these vaccines are sound.

The handling of this pandemic has been a huge failure from governments across the globe until now.
Every step of the way we have heard foolish things like "masks are unnecessary", "it will go away in the summer", "it will mutate into a milder variant", "you can't be reinfected", only to realise later that it was BS over BS.


There was one idiot who said this, he is orange and will be out of a job come January 20th.

Most governments expected this wave and where they failed is that they didn't have the infrastructure in place to handle the 2nd wave well.

The reality is that as we stand, a 20-40% effective vaccine would be realistic and marvelous. If you get enough people vaccinated, it yields some support while we work towards a more effective vaccine. Having a 95% effective vaccine 10 months into development is like being in 1971 and Airbus was presenting the A350XWB instead of the A300... It's too good to be true.
However, if they would tell people that a vaccine is only 20-40% effective, no one would take it.
Your theory is that they are telling the truth. My theory is that they are trying to get enough people to take the vaccine to build some degree of support, a strategy that I think will make matters worse.
If you are right, we should be out of the woods within a year. If I'm right, the strategy will backfire as it will make vaccinated and unvaccinated people less careful and we will also soon have headlines with vaccinated people dying of Covid and/or maybe even side effects like allergic reactions. The economic hardship will be made worse than it has to be. Then countries will resign to a hard lockdown strategy.


You act like this is the first vaccine ever, lets say that the mRNA vaccine is the A350XWB, that was in devlopement

The initial attenuated polio vaccine can be like the De Havilland Comet.(fatal flaw that was fixed)
The smallpox vaccine could be the 747 (game changer)
The MMR vaccine could be equivalent to the 737/A320 (reliable and a workhorse)
This is a progressive step that of the A350XWB.

The mRNA vaccine has been in the works for decades and this accelerated development was long predicted.

A coordinated hard lockdown would have ended this crisis months ago, what is allowed to happen now is what's killing people.
Every 3 days, more people are dying in the US than victims of 9/11. Every month, more people are dying from Covid in the US alone than people worldwide have been killed by terrorists over the past decade.
Just to put things in the right perspective.


So lets put some other things into perspective.

Annual totals for the US in 2020

Cancer deaths in the United States in 2020 - 606,000
Heart disease - 859,000
Covid it is 260,000

https://www.heart.org/-/media/files/abo ... .pdf?la=en
https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/ ... er%20death.

We'll agree to disagree on the need for a mass lockdown. I think common sense can put this on a slow burn but many countries aren't following the advice set out by health professionals and those same health professionals are not giving strong advice. Many countries are also unwilling or unable to support their people with aid to make a lockdown actually work. Furthermore there can easily be a system where the young and healthy can be put back into society and those at risk primarily the elderly are isolated and protected. That has been a huge fail in this, however if a vaccine is given to primary care workers who often bring Covid into care homes from the outside this might rather quickly take the strain of hospitals.

This is a lesson for the virus that is coming where that may be required, one that has a 20% mortality that kills a 25 year old just like it would an 80 year old. I hope an economic pause button can be developed to deal with that when the day comes.


It's hard to have a discussion when you say that "they know about the mutated strains", when we don't have a source, we don't know who "they" are.
Remember that the virus is swarming in tens of millions of bodies as we speak, replicating at will. Plenty of opportunities for mutations.

As for the vaccine being a variant of previous vaccines, there is no real evidence other than self-declarations.
There are no patents, no cross-verifications within the community.

For all we know, the pharma companies may have injected Covid-19 in placebo shots to make their vaccines look better.
Who's going to notice if they did?

Why are these companies even allowed to run the clinical trials and basically self-certify something that is going to be administered into the bodies of hundreds of millions of people?
Why aren't governments running the trials to determine objectively that the vaccines are safe and effective instead of making this determination solely based on data procured by companies with financial interests?

Why are so many people here advocating that we stick our heads in the sand and get our shots, placing our trust in our loving and noble governments without asking any questions?
1984, much?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propagand ... ted_States
 
N583JB
Posts: 1089
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:58 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:16 am

DocLightning wrote:
sevenheavy wrote:
DocLightning wrote:

What if I told you that having had that less effective vaccine will blunt your immune response to a different, more effective vaccine?


If that is the case (I'll defer to you on that one), then I guess that's a risk.


I've read this blog: "In the Pipeline" since I was in college. Here is Derek Lowe's (the author of the blog) take on combining different vaccines. The bottom line is that it might be fine; it might not be OK. We will need to wait and see what the data show us.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... t-vaccines


Doc,

Any insight as to what may happen if someone has already (perhaps unknowingly) had COVID but gets the vaccine? What if someone gets the first dose and catches COVID after their first shot but before the second?
 
sevenheavy
Posts: 978
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2004 3:30 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Dec 04, 2020 7:52 am

DocLightning wrote:
sevenheavy wrote:
DocLightning wrote:

What if I told you that having had that less effective vaccine will blunt your immune response to a different, more effective vaccine?


If that is the case (I'll defer to you on that one), then I guess that's a risk.


I've read this blog: "In the Pipeline" since I was in college. Here is Derek Lowe's (the author of the blog) take on combining different vaccines. The bottom line is that it might be fine; it might not be OK. We will need to wait and see what the data show us.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... t-vaccines



Thanks for the link Doc, interesting read. Something of an unknown as you say, although the last paragraph along the lines of ‘overall, I think it will work out, is reasonably encouraging.

Whatever the efficacy, as more vaccines get (hopefully) approved this will be a developing part of the vaccination program as the chances of having been given different types of vaccines increase.

I guess that as the storage and distribution challenges of the Pfizer (and to a lesser extent, Moderna) get simpler and cheaper, and the efficacy of AstraZeneca improves over time there will be a higher chance of crossover.

For now, i still can’t help but think that AstraZeneca should have a place for more remote and rural areas where the complicated delivery of the others mean the alternative is no vaccine. 90/95% is incredible and way beyond all reasonable hopes, but even 62% is towards the upper end of expectations, and much better than having to wait until the others become easier to transport..
So long 701, it was nice knowing you.
 
WIederling
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:49 am

news here (Germany) today is that Biontech/Pfizer have raw materials/production/distribution problems.
100m doses expected near term (to year end) have been reduced to ~50m.
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
SQ22
Moderator
Posts: 2336
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:27 pm

WIederling wrote:
news here (Germany) today is that Biontech/Pfizer have raw materials/production/distribution problems.
100m doses expected near term (to year end) have been reduced to ~50m.


Here is a link to a source:

Coronavirus digest: Pfizer halves vaccine supply estimate
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 22230
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:21 pm

N583JB wrote:

Doc,

Any insight as to what may happen if someone has already (perhaps unknowingly) had COVID but gets the vaccine? What if someone gets the first dose and catches COVID after their first shot but before the second?


A common question. The arm of the immune system that makes antibodies and cytotoxic T cells is called the "adaptive" arm of the immune system. This is the part of the immune system that remembers prior pathogens. We evolved under circumstances in which one would contract a virus, clear it, and then be repeatedly exposed to that virus again. In fact, it was around the year 1,000 that someone noticed that people who had already had smallpox didn't get smallpox again even when they were exposed.

So if your immune system gets exposed to an antigen that it has already seen in the form of a vaccine for a disease that you have already had, the worst that will happen is that you will get a big, whopping inflammatory reaction in your arm when your immune system comes down on it like a ton of bricks. And then you'll recover.

For COVID-19, it appears that the amount of neutralizing antibodies generated by an infection is mediocre and that in some patients, there is a pronounced waning of this response (in other patients there is a drop in antibody levels, which is normal, and then they seem to stabilize). However, the antibody responses triggered by the vaccines currently in Phase III clinical trials are 5-10x higher than the levels induced by natural infection.

So not only will it not be harmful to get the vaccine if you have had COVID-19, but it will be beneficial.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
N583JB
Posts: 1089
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2019 9:58 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:34 pm

DocLightning wrote:
N583JB wrote:

Doc,

Any insight as to what may happen if someone has already (perhaps unknowingly) had COVID but gets the vaccine? What if someone gets the first dose and catches COVID after their first shot but before the second?


A common question. The arm of the immune system that makes antibodies and cytotoxic T cells is called the "adaptive" arm of the immune system. This is the part of the immune system that remembers prior pathogens. We evolved under circumstances in which one would contract a virus, clear it, and then be repeatedly exposed to that virus again. In fact, it was around the year 1,000 that someone noticed that people who had already had smallpox didn't get smallpox again even when they were exposed.

So if your immune system gets exposed to an antigen that it has already seen in the form of a vaccine for a disease that you have already had, the worst that will happen is that you will get a big, whopping inflammatory reaction in your arm when your immune system comes down on it like a ton of bricks. And then you'll recover.

For COVID-19, it appears that the amount of neutralizing antibodies generated by an infection is mediocre and that in some patients, there is a pronounced waning of this response (in other patients there is a drop in antibody levels, which is normal, and then they seem to stabilize). However, the antibody responses triggered by the vaccines currently in Phase III clinical trials are 5-10x higher than the levels induced by natural infection.

So not only will it not be harmful to get the vaccine if you have had COVID-19, but it will be beneficial.


Thank you!

Any idea about what potentially could happen if you get shot 1 and then catch COVID-19 in the three-week window before you can get shot 2? Would the first shot offer any sort of protection by itself?
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 22230
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:57 pm

N583JB wrote:

Any idea about what potentially could happen if you get shot 1 and then catch COVID-19 in the three-week window before you can get shot 2? Would the first shot offer any sort of protection by itself?


Some version of this graph is found in just about every primary immunology textbook:
Image
This one comes from This Week in Virology at www.virology.ws.

As you can see, within about a week or so after exposure to a new antigen, there is a rise in antibodies to that antigen, and then they fall a bit but stay higher than they were before the exposure. When that antigen is then reintroduced a few weeks later, there is a much faster and larger rise in antibody titers against that antigen and that generates a long-term immune response. If we look at a vaccine with a similar efficacy to the two mRNA vaccines, measles (97% vaccine efficacy after two doses), the first dose provides 92-93% vaccine efficacy (CDC data). So with these vaccines, while we do not have firm numbers, I would expect that a single dose will offer partial protection (and quite possibly very good partial protection) and the second dose will provide full protection. An exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in the interval between the two doses would probably lead to mild COVID-19, if any.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:56 am

N583JB wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
sevenheavy wrote:

If that is the case (I'll defer to you on that one), then I guess that's a risk.


I've read this blog: "In the Pipeline" since I was in college. Here is Derek Lowe's (the author of the blog) take on combining different vaccines. The bottom line is that it might be fine; it might not be OK. We will need to wait and see what the data show us.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... t-vaccines


Doc,

Any insight as to what may happen if someone has already (perhaps unknowingly) had COVID but gets the vaccine? What if someone gets the first dose and catches COVID after their first shot but before the second?


Too soon to tell but IMO it will be a question of timing.

-Administering the vaccine to an infected person at the wrong moment may induce immune system overdrive, making matters worse. Cytokine storms and others. These are a major factor in Covid deaths. Too soon for studies about this but I think that we will see some of this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm

-On the other hand, IMO administering the vaccine soon after infection and before the virus has had a chance to replicate may help suppress replication as Doclightning illustrated.


The real problem is repeated exposure.
The vaccine makes antibodies, but if you keep getting exposed to the virus, you are going to use up the antibodies. While your body will keep making new ones over time, eventually every copier runs out of ink.
 
art
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Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:45 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The real problem is repeated exposure.
The vaccine makes antibodies, but if you keep getting exposed to the virus, you are going to use up the antibodies. While your body will keep making new ones over time, eventually every copier runs out of ink.


Is that your view or are you passing on accepted medical wisdom?
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4116
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 05, 2020 4:43 am

The real problem is repeated exposure.
The vaccine makes antibodies, but if you keep getting exposed to the virus, you are going to use up the antibodies. While your body will keep making new ones over time, eventually every copier runs out of ink.


There is some truth to that and that is likely why the elderly are especially vulnerable to Covid19. Their immune systems unfortunately can't do the job.

However we have T-cells and Memory B cells for a reason. They remember the pathogen and can deploy antibodies much faster meaning you have no knowledge of the re-infection or it's really mild. If you think about this, it's very efficient. Maintaining antibodies for every single infection you have ever had is an inefficient use of energy.

Doc had mentioned this in a previous thread but the Russian flu pandemic of 1889 is now thought to be a now endemic coronavirus that passed to humans from cows. Survivors of that pandemic describe many similar symptoms to that of Covid19.

Things described by people then are similar such as brain fog and the loss of taste and smell. It was also mild in children as Covid19 is for most kids. Everyone would get these viruses many times as kids from then to now.
The survivors of that pandemic carried partial immunity to the point where this virus causes the common cold. One endemic coronavirus has been traced to around that timeframe.

This I predict is where Covid19 is going. A small nuisance that causes a common cold and there will in the future 5 endemic Coronaviruses that simply irritates us.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... u-pandemic
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:06 am

StarAC17 wrote:
The real problem is repeated exposure.
The vaccine makes antibodies, but if you keep getting exposed to the virus, you are going to use up the antibodies. While your body will keep making new ones over time, eventually every copier runs out of ink.


There is some truth to that and that is likely why the elderly are especially vulnerable to Covid19. Their immune systems unfortunately can't do the job.

However we have T-cells and Memory B cells for a reason. They remember the pathogen and can deploy antibodies much faster meaning you have no knowledge of the re-infection or it's really mild. If you think about this, it's very efficient. Maintaining antibodies for every single infection you have ever had is an inefficient use of energy.

Doc had mentioned this in a previous thread but the Russian flu pandemic of 1889 is now thought to be a now endemic coronavirus that passed to humans from cows. Survivors of that pandemic describe many similar symptoms to that of Covid19.

Things described by people then are similar such as brain fog and the loss of taste and smell. It was also mild in children as Covid19 is for most kids. Everyone would get these viruses many times as kids from then to now.
The survivors of that pandemic carried partial immunity to the point where this virus causes the common cold. One endemic coronavirus has been traced to around that timeframe.

This I predict is where Covid19 is going. A small nuisance that causes a common cold and there will in the future 5 endemic Coronaviruses that simply irritates us.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... u-pandemic



I'm also increasingly confident that vaccines will play a major role in defeating Covid.
However, in the meanwhile, there are real risks associated with the too optimistic communication about vaccines.

In the country I live in, the vaccine strategy is pointing towards vaccines reaching the general population only around Q3-Q4 2021.
So if heard immunity were to be achieved, it will only be in the winter of 2021-2022 at the earliest.
And that's if the vaccines meet their effectiveness in real life application.

I predict that 2021 will be the year of the vaccines saga.
I predict that we will hear issue after issue about the vaccines. Side effects, people dying of Covid or other ailments after taking the vaccines, lawsuits, investigations into the pharma companies, suspensions of vaccination campaigns, new vaccines being announced and those beign questionned, Chinese/Russian vaccines VS Western vaccins, etc...


The too optimistic communication about the vaccines is leading to people letting their guards down.
I saw this in several countries as I travelled across 5 Western European countries in the past few days.
Yesterday I was in Paris and saw herds of students walking packed together wearing their masks under their chins.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:51 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
A coordinated hard lockdown would have ended this crisis months ago, what is allowed to happen now is what's killing people.
Every 3 days, more people are dying in the US than victims of 9/11. Every month, more people are dying from Covid in the US alone than people worldwide have been killed by terrorists over the past decade.
Just to put things in the right perspective.


So lets put some other things into perspective.

Annual totals for the US in 2020

Cancer deaths in the United States in 2020 - 606,000
Heart disease - 859,000
Covid it is 260,000

https://www.heart.org/-/media/files/abo ... .pdf?la=en
https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/ ... er%20death.


I need to address this.

First of all, the deaths you are mentioning are not preventable. Covid deaths are preventable by a short strict lockdown to zero cases.
It has been proven by countries like New Zealand.

If a strict lockdown of a couple of months is all it takes to eradicate cancer forever from within the closed borders of your country, everyone would agree to it, don't you think? So why not for Covid?


At yesterday's rate, while Trump is busy playing golf, Covid killed as many people in the US as in the World Trade Center attacks on 9/11.
This exceeds the daily death rate of cancer.
Covid also increases the death rate of other ailments.

It is not a proven fact that suicide rates increased due to lockdowns. This is an argument constructed by the Trump administration to justify putting money before lives, and that so many people seem to have taken at face value.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanp ... 15-0366(20)30435-1/fulltext

Even if you could see more cases of depression by some people who suddenly see their social contacts wiped out, lockdowns could also prevent other causes for suicide such as burn-outs.
Lockdowns give everyone a much needed time to rest and recover from the stresses of our fast-paced societies. This can temporarily reduce heart disease victims, but also deaths by accidents. Lockdowns can reenergise societies to come out of the lockdowns healthy and ready to work.
As I think about it, most people I talked to before the Covid crisis complained about not being able to spend enough time with their families or partners.
 
FGITD
Posts: 1682
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:44 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:47 pm

And for seemingly the thousandth time, a total lockdown as you described is absolutely impossible due to the sheer number of people who still have to work to keep society functioning. Unless you'd like for the lockdown to also include no lights, heat, emergency services, mail, hospitals, food, medicine, and so on.

It's 2020. We can't all just retreat to our caves for the winter and try again next spring. That's not how it works
 
art
Posts: 4169
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 05, 2020 4:53 pm

[code][/code]
FGITD wrote:
And for seemingly the thousandth time, a total lockdown as you described is absolutely impossible due to the sheer number of people who still have to work to keep society functioning. Unless you'd like for the lockdown to also include no lights, heat, emergency services, mail, hospitals, food, medicine, and so on.


Sure, but a very restrictive lockdown in Sydney reduced the daily infection level from 500-700 a day in August to 18 on Oct 1. I don't think that resulted in having no lights, heat, emergency services, mail, hospitals, food, medicine, and so on. At that low level tracking and tracing those who have been in contact with infected people becomes much more practical.

https://www.google.com/search?safe=stri ... CAw&uact=5

But, as others have said elsewhere a lot of people, knowing that 'the cavalry are coming' in the form of vaccination, may become less cautious in their behaviour, making things worse before they get better.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4116
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:37 pm

FGITD wrote:
And for seemingly the thousandth time, a total lockdown as you described is absolutely impossible due to the sheer number of people who still have to work to keep society functioning. Unless you'd like for the lockdown to also include no lights, heat, emergency services, mail, hospitals, food, medicine, and so on.

It's 2020. We can't all just retreat to our caves for the winter and try again next spring. That's not how it works


You definitely can't in the US because Trump and congress are all feckless losers who don't want to pass any stimulus or support for the American people. Many Americans would literally starve if they couldn't work right now because there is next to no government support for closed businesses any any level of government in the US.

A long lockdown could work to bring the cases down to zero or close to it but it is far easier in Australia and New Zealand as they are both isolated, relatively sparsely populated and the only way in is through air essentially. They can keep a lid on it because they have the advantage of controlling movement. It won't eradicate the virus and both Australia and New Zealand get local cases as well but they do have the ability to get a handle on it which is something the deserve a lot of credit for.

In Europe and North America it is far more densely populated and there is so much more freedom of movement that would be hard to stop without martial law. You would essentially have to ban all interstate travel in the US and rip up the Schengen agreement and enforce border controls in Europe which I don't even know if that have the ability to do that in the short term.

In the US you might have an essential job in one state and live in another and if you can't get to work then that doesn't help things. The same thing in Europe, you could live in one country and work in another. Yes you can have exemptions but people probably very much underestimate the interstate and international commerce that happens on both continents. Transport, Manufacturing of essential goods (PPE for example), essential workers in infrastructure and public health will move around making that kind of lockdown a lot harder.

Furthermore, the second the clamps are released they virus can come back and this virus can hide in asymptomatic people so well and is so contagious it would be almost impossible to eradicate. Nothing we have vaccines for has been eradicated except for Smallpox. We can't control nature and a virus was probably one of the first genetic things on earth and they will be here long before us and long after.

First of all, the deaths you are mentioning are not preventable. Covid deaths are preventable by a short strict lockdown to zero cases.
It has been proven by countries like New Zealand.

If a strict lockdown of a couple of months is all it takes to eradicate cancer forever from within the closed borders of your country, everyone would agree to it, don't you think? So why not for Covid?


I say this as someone who has some bad habits and needs to lose a few pounds.

Heart disease for a large amount of people is preventable and while cancer is pretty random there are a lot of things one can do to reduce their risk for it. . Heart disease and Cancer are slow killers however where Covid has really brought our our fight or flight emotions and covid happens to be contagious the other two aren't.

This doctor make the most sense to me from all I have heard speak in the last 9 months.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lze-rMYLf2E&t=6s
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3405
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:39 pm

art wrote:
[code][/code]
FGITD wrote:
And for seemingly the thousandth time, a total lockdown as you described is absolutely impossible due to the sheer number of people who still have to work to keep society functioning. Unless you'd like for the lockdown to also include no lights, heat, emergency services, mail, hospitals, food, medicine, and so on.


Sure, but a very restrictive lockdown in Sydney reduced the daily infection level from 500-700 a day in August to 18 on Oct 1. I don't think that resulted in having no lights, heat, emergency services, mail, hospitals, food, medicine, and so on. At that low level tracking and tracing those who have been in contact with infected people becomes much more practical.

If the extent of community transmission is only 500-700/day, then sure. But at thousands and thousands per day the cat is out of the bag.
 
meecrob
Posts: 302
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:15 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:29 pm

FGITD wrote:
And for seemingly the thousandth time, a total lockdown as you described is absolutely impossible due to the sheer number of people who still have to work to keep society functioning. Unless you'd like for the lockdown to also include no lights, heat, emergency services, mail, hospitals, food, medicine, and so on.

It's 2020. We can't all just retreat to our caves for the winter and try again next spring. That's not how it works


Well, no, but on the other hand, maybe some measures should be stepped up.

Where I live people are becoming extremely complacent with regards to protecting themselves and others. Masks, thankfully, are worn by nearly everyone, but no other guidelines are being followed. It seems people are sick and tired of following guidelines when non-essential businesses all over the city are opening illegally until shut down, maximum occupancy signs are not even posted anymore, let alone obeyed, and we are in the exact same situation as we were in 9 months ago, only now people make a little bit less of an effort to keep 6 feet away. At least where I live, what we are doing is not only not working, its efficacy is eroding.

Surely there is a middle ground between what is currently happening and "no lights, heat, emergency services, mail, hospitals, food, medicine, and so on"?
 
User avatar
Braybuddy
Posts: 6965
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2004 8:14 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:52 am

I love the way the Russians made a big deal of being the first to develop a vaccine, even though it wasn't thoroughly tested. For some reason, they seemed reluctant to roll it out. Now, with news that the UK is to start vaccinating next week, they started yesterday:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/

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