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Waterbomber2
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Dec 26, 2020 9:30 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/cdc-covid/2020/12/25/c2b418ae-4206-11eb-8db8-395dedaaa036_story.html

A fairly extensive article as to how the CDC messed up testing for the covid virus. Thailand (CDC trained) had a good test within days. WHO also had good tests, and the recipes to make them. CDC seemed to have a 'not invented here' attitude, and insisted on doing a new better more complicated test. A large number of Americans died as a result.

Global mortality from the disease has varied dramatically: Thailand, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, all of which jump-started coronavirus testing in January, have experienced death rates of less than 2 per 100,000 people. In the United States, the rate is 91 deaths per 100,000 people, according to lab-confirmed cases archived by Johns Hopkins University. Experts hesitate to quantify how many lives were saved by the early testing in Asia.


Not shooting down the messenger, but the article.

Japan can not be touted as an example in this crisis.
I have documented it as nauseum in March/April on this forum. They barely did any tests and their published Covid deaths do not reflect the reality, many Covid deaths are going down as pneumonia. For every test taken in Japan, Western countries have tested 10 to 20 times more and not because they had more cases.
A similar story can be told in South Korea, which despite an amazing initial response, didn't follow up and have pretty low testing numbers compared to Western countries.

You can see this here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The US has fallen victim to a policy failure.
Ergo
"our country is not built to stay closed, we need to reopen. We need to open our economy.".
Donald J. Trump


As for Taiwan, there isn't enough data about what's really going on there, so I'm not going to comment.

I can also say that it's dead quiet in Japan about the vaccines.
This does not seem to be a main theme, vaccine certification is not expected until mid-February and vaccinations are not scheduled to start before the end of February.
Source (use Google Translate): https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/cor ... ml#mokuji3
 
N583JB
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Dec 27, 2020 3:52 pm

DocLightning wrote:
...


Thanks for all the great info, as always, DocLightning. I do have another question for you, if you don't mind. I received my first shot of the Pfizer vaccine a week and a half ago. I haven't consumed any alcohol since 12/15, but I am off on New Year's Day and my usual NYE tradition is to have a few drinks over the course of the evening with my spouse while watching the festivities on TV. I know that there was a big controversy recently over the Russians advising those who have taken the Sputnik vaccine to refrain from alcohol for something like 8 weeks surrounding their vaccination. As far as I have been able to tell, Pfizer and Moderna have not made any such recommendation.

Of course I do not want to do anything to jeopardize the effectiveness of the vaccine, so if I need to abstain from alcohol for two or three months I'm more than willing to do so. Off the record, do you believe there is any reason to do so? My own research has produced mixed results, but you seem to be much more knowledgeable on the subject than anyone here.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Dec 27, 2020 4:08 pm

N583JB wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
...


Thanks for all the great info, as always, DocLightning. I do have another question for you, if you don't mind. I received my first shot of the Pfizer vaccine a week and a half ago. I haven't consumed any alcohol since 12/15, but I am off on New Year's Day and my usual NYE tradition is to have a few drinks over the course of the evening with my spouse while watching the festivities on TV. I know that there was a big controversy recently over the Russians advising those who have taken the Sputnik vaccine to refrain from alcohol for something like 8 weeks surrounding their vaccination. As far as I have been able to tell, Pfizer and Moderna have not made any such recommendation.


While severe, chronic alcoholism is, of course, not salubrious for the immune system, there is no reason to think that moderate consumption of alcohol would materially impact the immune response. Patients in both the Pfizer and Moderna trials were not given any guidance to avoid alcohol and there is no reason to think that the entire vaccine arms of those trials were made of teetotalers.

I have no idea why the Russians would have made such an extreme recommendation, but I have no reason to think it is science-based. It sounds as if there is some strange political subtext here.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:22 pm

DocLightning wrote:

I think that by June or July in the US and Europe, we will see that cases have dropped off precipitously. I think that at that point, it's going to be hard to argue that people should continue to isolate, especially those who are vaccinated.

(1) https://science.sciencemag.org/content/ ... ce.abe2424
(2)https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7685463/
(3)https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/health/covid-vaccine-hesitancy.html

Honestly, if we don’t screw up the vaccinations, cases should be lower by an order of magnitude in the spring considering the number of people already infected in the US.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:44 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

If you think you post a fact about "virus/death plummeting" please provide a source/backup. Otherwise, please state this is your hope/opinion.


It's not an unreasonable aspiration. Virus spreading, and particularly this virus, is a non-linear process. This virus spreads almost exclusively by superspreader events, rather than more conventional person-to-person spread (the superspreader events are of course person-to-person, but one person to a great many people, rather than one person to 1-10 people, as is the case in most other viral diseases).(1) In fact, with COVID-19, only about 10-20% of patients actually transmit the infection to others, but that small minority does an enormous amount of transmission.(2) Many of these superspreader events were from people who had no ill-intent, but a great deal of public contact, such as healthcare workers who did not know they were infected and weren't wearing masks because this was not standard practice in the earliest days of the pandemic.

The current vaccination schemes are well-considered. The UK is starting with the elderly and most at-risk, thereby reducing the potential for burden on hospitals. The USA is starting with healthcare personnel, thereby maximizing the number of healthcare workers who will be able to care for patients because they are protected from disease. But both countries are vaccinating both elderly, vulnerable populations, and healthcare workers quickly. In both countries, with some minor differences in style, essential workers in public-facing jobs will come next.

If the vaccines reduce transmission --and I am confident that they will-- this strategy should begin to rapidly slow the spread of the virus within a few months. Moreover, this summer, I predicted that this virus would demonstrate seasonal variation. A spike in cases in July appeared to prove me wrong, but I was not wrong; the virus was suppressed (and it was still ugly). The situation since November has been far, far worse. Moreover, recent information suggests that as the vaccines roll out, and as Americans and Europeans watch their friends and healthcare workers take them, a lot of the hesitancy to taking the vaccines is melting away.(3)

I think that by June or July in the US and Europe, we will see that cases have dropped off precipitously. I think that at that point, it's going to be hard to argue that people should continue to isolate, especially those who are vaccinated.

(1) https://science.sciencemag.org/content/ ... ce.abe2424
(2)https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7685463/
(3)https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/health/covid-vaccine-hesitancy.html


I would think that vaccinating the "super spreader types" first has the most effect. Hopefully, after vaccination they no longer are inadvertent super spreaders.
And what point is it to vaccinate the elderly who are already in protective medical custody? If you think there are bad side effects, you just killed all the elderly with the weakest immune system by vaccinating them first!
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Dec 27, 2020 7:39 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
I would think that vaccinating the "super spreader types" first has the most effect.


Well, yes. But at present the only way we have of identifying them is after the fact. If we could figure out how to predict who is likely to superspread, then this would be a lot easier.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:40 pm

I hope the health care staff vaccination plan has a split between Pfizer, Moderna and Oxford/AZ(when available) at any given location/area. Even give an option to skip for those already recovered from COVID.

Also, Pfizer/Moderna need to have a plan to administer accidentally thawed vaccine. Flight Crew or Truck Drivers should get a notification when a container is close to 0C(or appropriate), divert to a location where it can be used.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Dec 28, 2020 3:53 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
I hope the health care staff vaccination plan has a split between Pfizer, Moderna and Oxford/AZ(when available) at any given location/area. Even give an option to skip for those already recovered from COVID.


Not a good idea to skip those who already have been exposed. Coronaviruses appear to have a trick of blunting the memory immune response and there are now several documented cases of reinfection in patients with documented antibodies from natural infection. The vaccines induce a far more robust response. So even those who have already recovered should receive the vaccine.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:37 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Not a good idea to skip those who already have been exposed.


I didn't mean forever. I am contemplating mitigation in the remotely unlikely event of some side effect in the long term with one of the vaccines.

There are 31000 employees in Henry Ford Medical System. Not sure if everyone qualifies or only those directly interact with patients.

Every employee gets Pfizer in a week (vs) 1/4 Pfizer + 1/4 Moderna + 1/4 Oxford + 1/4 already exposed/opt out/control group.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:16 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Every employee gets Pfizer in a week (vs) 1/4 Pfizer + 1/4 Moderna + 1/4 Oxford + 1/4 already exposed/opt out/control group.


That's just going to complicate an already complicated workflow.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:59 am

What is the status of all the vaccines?
Pfizer: Out, on emergency basis, limited supply to medical workers, some vulnerable, and politically connected. mRNA Vaccine

Sputnik V: In distribution in Russia. 2nd dose different than first? (I'm asking as so many bad sources), further testing required for many regions.

Moderna: Approved for emergency use, in distribution. mRNA Vaccine

Oxford-AstraZeneca: Expected approval in UK this week. Some questions on effectiveness, some studies very effective. But easier storage and shipment than the cyro Vaccines:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB1cidRF

SinoVac: Data to be released soon. Verbal from Brazil implies less effective, but is this bad PR? :https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-sinovac/piecemeal-data-releases-threaten-to-undermine-sinovacs-covid-19-vaccine-idUSL4N2J80L1

Coronavac data from Brazil (2nd Chinese Vaccine) same mixed messages of 50% to 90% effective:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKBN28Z0PX

Johnson & Johnson (Janssen division): In late trials. Not in link, but I'm hearing good things, another mRNA, possibly out mid January:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.foxnews. ... llment.amp

Novavax in trials, manufactured antibodies, not mRNA, advantage easier (refrigeration) transportation:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vacc ... ed-states/

Clover (3rd Chinese Vaccine) starting trials, including in Philippines: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/c ... 19-vaccine

Now what about others? According to this link, at one point 219 Vaccines were in development. The world needs billions of doses.

Now a totally different conversation:
I love doing simulations. I assumed 95% Vaccine effectiveness, normal socialization (no movement restrictions) until symptoms, 5% of vaccinated could be asymptomatic spreaders (but I reduced to 4 days of spreading in my model), 20% naturally immune, so Ro of 3.0 modeled as 3.75 (really, set constants to get startup Ro= 3 with immune, I admit I had to fudge as it was bouncing balls) , those that get Covid19 have a declining immunity with time (100% for 2 months than decline to 20% over 2 years). People contagious after 4 days, don't notice symptoms (slow contacts in my bouncing ball model) until 7 days, infectious for 7-14 days (random), 20% no symptoms (no change in behavior). I used a chance a contract created an infection and time in proximity rather than an Ro... An engineer here, not a full medical study.

Using these assumptions, the vaccinated could live normally once 50% were vaccinated. The unvaccinated saw no benefit until 70% were vaccinated. At 90% vaccinated, the disease would die off. Now I hope government agencies have a better model than my 40 year old bouncing ball bacteria proportion model used to teach me video programing, but my take is those not willing to vaccinate are taking their own risks due to how incredibly long this disease is contagious.

FWIW, my sister was vaccinated the 1st day. Of hundreds of vaccinations, she had the worst reaction: 2 hours of chills (like with the flu, it woke her up). Otherwise, minor aches and the next day some fatigue. That was the worst of over six hundred vaccinations. I want any mRNA Vaccine. I'd do a stage 3 trial if the Vaccine (not placebo) was guaranteed.

Lightsaber
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art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
What is the status of all the vaccines?


And what is the status of all the vaccinations? I understand from CNN that slightly more than 2 million people in the US have received their first jab. This does not bode well for 100 million jabs being reached 100 days after Biden taking office. How can this be achieved? I imagine that such a goal would not be very difficult to attain if the exercise were conducted in a reasonably organised manner.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:02 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
What is the status of all the vaccines?


And what is the status of all the vaccinations? I understand from CNN that slightly more than 2 million people in the US have received their first jab. This does not bode well for 100 million jabs being reached 100 days after Biden taking office. How can this be achieved? I imagine that such a goal would not be very difficult to attain if the exercise were conducted in a reasonably organised manner.

Well the Pfizer vaccine was approved Dec 11 and the Moderna one a week later and already 2 million have been vaccinated. So that is about 15 days total since it started. And in the coming months several other vaccines will come online and be approved, and production will continue to ramp up (with Pfizer and Moderna both looking at doubling+ their production).

So I think 100 million in 100 days is possible, and even more so when you consider Biden's term doesn't start for another 22 days.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:27 pm

Tugger wrote:
art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
What is the status of all the vaccines?


And what is the status of all the vaccinations? I understand from CNN that slightly more than 2 million people in the US have received their first jab. This does not bode well for 100 million jabs being reached 100 days after Biden taking office. How can this be achieved? I imagine that such a goal would not be very difficult to attain if the exercise were conducted in a reasonably organised manner.

Well the Pfizer vaccine was approved Dec 11 and the Moderna one a week later and already 2 million have been vaccinated. So that is about 15 days total since it started. And in the coming months several other vaccines will come online and be approved, and production will continue to ramp up (with Pfizer and Moderna both looking at doubling+ their production).

So I think 100 million in 100 days is possible, and even more so when you consider Biden's term doesn't start for another 22 days.

Tugg

I'm going to ignore mentioning politicians, since I've seen how much the prior administration invested and CNN would give no credit.

Pfizer and Moderna require two doses per person, spaced a while spart, so divide doses by 2 for people vacinated:
2.9 million doses shipped on schedule:
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5 ... ent-delays

Moderna's main contractor (recall, a new company, they must outsource) is at 500,000 doses a day ramping up to a million per day, trying for 20 million packaged by the end of the month (again, next month everyone vacinated in December needs a 2nd dose). More sites being turned on to hand over 200 million doses by June.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... 19-vaccine

I cannot find the Johnson and Johnson production figures, but as it needs only one dose (link above), it should add significantly.

The bias in the media is why I'm taking 13+ months off from TV. A month into it, I couldn't be happier with my decision. All of this shouldn't be so political. It should be get er done.

The US will be the first to have enough Vaccine for those who want it. I've read 30% want the vaccine now, a bunch will get it after seeing it us ok (per thus link, 72%) and 28% are Vaccine avoiders/hesitant.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 131340.htm

I've seen other numbers, but basically not enough will be willingly vacinated to protect the unvaccinated.

The Sputnik V is the most licensed. It will be produced in Russia, South Korea, India, Brazil and even Belarus and Kazakhstan:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN28V113

https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-russ ... 11398.html

Possibly Turkey too:
https://news.ru/en/world/turkey-russia- ... v-vaccine/

The Oxford-Astrazeneca is very producible. I posted upthread the US ordered 100 million doses.

The distribution is by state. My opinion is Colorado is doing a great job, California is not.

I know many vaccinated doctors and nurses. My sister had the worst reaction I know of, but likely due to she developed a strong immunity. I expect the same for myself and I want the vaccine.

The USA and UK will likely be the first mass vaccinated to where lockdowns can end and we can access the economic devastation.

If you read my links, the developed world isn't expected to be 70%+ vaccinated until Fall 2021. I did my own simulations, they tell me that the unvaccinated won't have any notable herd protection until then.

Lightsaber
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Dieuwer
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:26 am

I have zero qualms in getting vaccinated. If I can get the first shot tomorrow, I will take off from work.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:16 am

lightsaber wrote:
What is the status of all the vaccines?
Pfizer: Out, on emergency basis, limited supply to medical workers, some vulnerable, and politically connected. mRNA Vaccine

The big limit with Pfizer is places that can handle the cold chain requirements. Also, the two doses can be given as little as 17 days apart.

Sputnik V: In distribution in Russia. 2nd dose different than first? (I'm asking as so many bad sources), further testing required for many regions.

Sputnik V is an adenovirus-vectored approach that uses two different adenoviruses (Ad5 followed by Ad26) to get around the issue that Oxford may have had in which the patient gains immunity to the vector itself on the prime dose and thereby makes the boost dose fail. The issues are that Adenovirus 5 is a common human adenovirus and most of us have antibodies against it and also Adenovirus 5 can cause an increase in CD4+ lymphocytes, which are the cells that HIV likes to infect, and in the past an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine candidate actually increased the risk of HIV.
Moderna: Approved for emergency use, in distribution. mRNA Vaccine

Seems to be going well. Needs 28 days (minimum 24) between doses.
Oxford-AstraZeneca: Expected approval in UK this week. Some questions on effectiveness, some studies very effective. But easier storage and shipment than the cyro Vaccines:


I'm really not happy with this candidate. They need to figure out how to raise the efficacy above 80%, and ideally in the vicinity of 90+ for me to support it.

Coronavac data from Brazil (2nd Chinese Vaccine) same mixed messages of 50% to 90% effective:


A really basic approach with inactivated whole virus adjuvanted with aluminum hydroxide. Both SinoVac and SinoPharm are using this approach

Johnson & Johnson (Janssen division): In late trials. Not in link, but I'm hearing good things, another mRNA, possibly out mid January:

Janssen/J&J is actually an Ad26-vectored approach. They use a gargantuan dose (1x10^17 infectious units) as a single dose. Ad26 is a good choice (it's also used in Sputnik V) because most of us don't have antibodies against it and we don't think it induces CD4+ T cells in the way that Ad5 does. They seem to have raised good antibody titers in preclinical trials and tried a number of different tweaks, settling on a full-length prefusion-stabilized spike with a t-PA promoter as their best candidate. I'm very excited to see results. It will be stable under standard refrigeration, and being a virus-vector, is very easy to produce.

Novavax in trials, manufactured antibodies, not mRNA, advantage easier (refrigeration) transportation:


Novovax uses a "virus-like particle" approach in which they take a "bouquet" of prefusion-stabilized spikes and clump them together, and then use an adjuvant similar to that used in "SHINGRIX" to boost the immune response and target it at antiviral responses. Their candidate raises ridiculous antibody titers in preclinical trials and protects primates from virus challenge. I'm pretty bullish on this approach.

Clover (3rd Chinese Vaccine) starting trials, including in Philippines.


Clover appears to be very similar to the Novovax candidate, as far as I can tell. It appears to be a spike "bouquet" with the same adjuvant used in SHINGRIX (which is a GSK product). I don't have any preclinical data from them.

The Indians are looking at a very interesting approach. Their CODAGENIX company uses a technique called "deoptimization." Within the genetic code, many amino acids can be coded for by different codons. In some cells (say human vs. pine tree), certain codons work better than others to code for a given amino acid. What CODAGENIX has done is to re-code SARS-CoV-2 with the absolutely worst codons that could be picked. So that means that their deoptimized virus can infect cells and replicate, but it's really bad at it. This very wimpy virus is the basis for a vaccine that can be administered by squirting it up the patient's nose. I'll be very interested to see how this candidate progresses.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
andz
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:00 am

Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has just been approved by the MHRA in the UK.
After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says WTF...
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:18 am

andz wrote:
Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has just been approved by the MHRA in the UK.


Great news! Probably (Doc's reservations above heeded). Vaccination scheduled to start next week.
 
proest
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:02 am

They were talking about a way to increase the efficiency to 95% (sorry couldn't find a better source). I am not sure if they will be allowed to use that new method in England, it is probably reasonable to expect that they will start using the 2 full dose regimes resulting in 60% protection. Not sure how difficult it is to change the procedure in a later phase, does that require a new phase III trial?

Anyway, it's a bit shitty that there is such a big difference in the effectiveness of vaccines. I for one would be hesitant to take AZN/Oxford vaccine now, not because I don't trust vaccines (you can put anything in me if I can travel the world again). No, because of the difference between 60 (12-in-20) and 95 (19-in-20) percent, is the difference between improbable (to get sick) and not sure (if protected). That is something that matters if at some point travel to parts of the world with lower vaccination rates/ classical superspreader events like festivals and parties start again. While I know that on a macro-societal level 60% would be good enough, I would still be hesitant. Then also; as a (healthy) person in my mid-20'ies I cannot expect to get a vaccine anytime soon.

I wouldn't be surprised if governments around the world will find it to be quite possible to vaccinate enough people (so vaccination distrust will not be as big of a problem as is feared), but find it hard to find enthusiastic people for the lower efficient vaccines, which is a problem as at least the AZN forms the bulk of soon-to-be-available vaccines.
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:28 am

proest wrote:
They were talking about a way to increase the efficiency to 95% (sorry couldn't find a better source). I am not sure if they will be allowed to use that new method in England, it is probably reasonable to expect that they will start using the 2 full dose regimes resulting in 60% protection. Not sure how difficult it is to change the procedure in a later phase, does that require a new phase III trial?


I think - without checking - that the low dose followed by high dose protocol (showing 90% protection) was followed for a substantial number of people on the AstraZeneca vaccine trial. On that basis I would not want the 2 x high dose protocol applied to me if I received this vaccine. I do not know what 'went wrong' in the AstraZeneca trial but if the low dose, high dose prptocol was applied to several thousand recipients and showed 90% efficacy why on earth would I be willing to accept vaccination shown to give about 60% protection instead?
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:38 pm

I have been watching BBC news 24 TV station.

In an interview with the professor at Oxford who ran the research/development programme resulting in the AstraZeneca vaccine it became apparent that the strategy was shifting towards administering as many initial doses of the vaccine as possible since a single dose renders the recipient far less likely to become seriously ill if he/she should become infected.

The emphasis seems to have moved to reducing demands on hospital resources, rather than completing 2 dose vaccination within a 28 day period.

This sounds like a sensible change of direction to me. Have I got this right?

Let's say a country has 10 mllion doses and the ability to get those into arms in 2 months .Is it better

a) to jab 10 million people and render those people protected from serious symptoms if they contract the disease
b) to jab 5 million people twice and render those people 80% protected from contracting COVID-19
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:42 pm

I would like to thank DocLightning for his helpful contributions to this thread and his positive attitude. There is already more than enough negativity on this board Re COVID-19 and it is good to read science-based commentary that gives us hope.
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:24 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
I would like to thank DocLightning for his helpful contributions to this thread and his positive attitude. There is already more than enough negativity on this board Re COVID-19 and it is good to read science-based commentary that gives us hope.


Echo your sentiment.

Not sure about the hope bit that you mention but it is a great advantage to us less medical beings to be offered knowledge-based information and analyses of this novel affliction. So many, many thanks for that to the contributor.
 
hashtagconfused
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:09 pm

rather than use the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine would it be possible or make sense to use their production capacity to to produce one of the other vaccines that is more effective?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:10 pm

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... ts-spread/

A Fred Hutchison scientist speaks on a variety of item, how the variant may affect infectious rate, vaccines, and delays in getting to 'herd immunity'.
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Dieuwer
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:37 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/a-qa-about-the-new-coronavirus-variant-with-the-fred-hutch-scientist-whos-been-tracking-its-spread/

A Fred Hutchison scientist speaks on a variety of item, how the variant may affect infectious rate, vaccines, and delays in getting to 'herd immunity'.


You would think that if a variant is MORE viral, "herd immunity" is achieved FASTER as MORE people are infected FASTER.
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:55 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/a-qa-about-the-new-coronavirus-variant-with-the-fred-hutch-scientist-whos-been-tracking-its-spread/

A Fred Hutchison scientist speaks on a variety of item, how the variant may affect infectious rate, vaccines, and delays in getting to 'herd immunity'.


You would think that if a variant is MORE viral, "herd immunity" is achieved FASTER as MORE people are infected FASTER.


Did not see what Fred Hutchison had to say since the linked website wanted me to sign up to so many things.But sure, if everyone in the world got it tomorrow it would no longer be a problem in a month's time.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:55 pm

hashtagconfused wrote:
rather than use the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine would it be possible or make sense to use their production capacity to to produce one of the other vaccines that is more effective?


Their vaccine is produced in a bioreactor, so if we were to find that, say, the J&J candidate is more effective, then perhaps AZ's capacity could be used producing that. But for a mRNA product, their facilities will not work.
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hashtagconfused
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:27 pm

DocLightning wrote:
hashtagconfused wrote:
rather than use the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine would it be possible or make sense to use their production capacity to to produce one of the other vaccines that is more effective?


Their vaccine is produced in a bioreactor, so if we were to find that, say, the J&J candidate is more effective, then perhaps AZ's capacity could be used producing that. But for a mRNA product, their facilities will not work.


thanks, Doc. appreciate the clarification. and all the helpful info along the way
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:04 pm

Was reading an article about the new UK (and UK) Covid-19 version in The Economist today (Sorry paywall).

And this part scared me a bit (b.1.1.7 is the name of the new British variant):

The authors of the cog-uk paper have a suggestion. This is that, rather than being a chance accumulation of changes, b.1.1.7 might itself be the consequence of an evolutionary process—but one that happened in a single human being rather than a population. They observe that some people develop chronic covid-19 infections because their immune systems do not work properly and so cannot clear the infection. These unfortunates, they hypothesise, may act as incubators for novel viral variants.

The theory goes like this. At first, such a patient’s lack of natural immunity relaxes pressure on the virus, permitting the multiplication of mutations which would otherwise be culled by the immune system. However, treatment for chronic covid-19 often involves what is known as convalescent plasma. This is serum gathered from recovered covid patients, which is therefore rich in antibodies against sars-cov-2. As a therapy, that approach frequently works. But administering such a cocktail of antibodies applies a strong selection pressure to what is now a diverse viral population in the patient’s body. This, the cog-uk researchers reckon, may result in the success of mutational combinations which would not otherwise have seen the light of day. It is possible that b.1.1.7 is one of these.


They go on saying that the chance I will invalidate the vaccine low (for now), but it doesn't sit well with me that even therapies could permutate the virus.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:36 pm

I posted a bunch on available Vaccines, the Univ if Queensland/CSL was the first publicly scrapped. Not effectiveness ir safety, ut produced a protein that produces a false positive on HIV tests:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/worl ... itive.html
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acavpics
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:35 am

lightsaber wrote:
What is the status of all the vaccines?
Pfizer: Out, on emergency basis, limited supply to medical workers, some vulnerable, and politically connected. mRNA Vaccine

Sputnik V: In distribution in Russia. 2nd dose different than first? (I'm asking as so many bad sources), further testing required for many regions.

Moderna: Approved for emergency use, in distribution. mRNA Vaccine

Oxford-AstraZeneca: Expected approval in UK this week. Some questions on effectiveness, some studies very effective. But easier storage and shipment than the cyro Vaccines:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB1cidRF

SinoVac: Data to be released soon. Verbal from Brazil implies less effective, but is this bad PR? :https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-sinovac/piecemeal-data-releases-threaten-to-undermine-sinovacs-covid-19-vaccine-idUSL4N2J80L1

Coronavac data from Brazil (2nd Chinese Vaccine) same mixed messages of 50% to 90% effective:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKBN28Z0PX

Johnson & Johnson (Janssen division): In late trials. Not in link, but I'm hearing good things, another mRNA, possibly out mid January:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.foxnews. ... llment.amp

Novavax in trials, manufactured antibodies, not mRNA, advantage easier (refrigeration) transportation:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vacc ... ed-states/

Clover (3rd Chinese Vaccine) starting trials, including in Philippines: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/c ... 19-vaccine

Now what about others? According to this link, at one point 219 Vaccines were in development. The world needs billions of doses.

Now a totally different conversation:
I love doing simulations. I assumed 95% Vaccine effectiveness, normal socialization (no movement restrictions) until symptoms, 5% of vaccinated could be asymptomatic spreaders (but I reduced to 4 days of spreading in my model), 20% naturally immune, so Ro of 3.0 modeled as 3.75 (really, set constants to get startup Ro= 3 with immune, I admit I had to fudge as it was bouncing balls) , those that get Covid19 have a declining immunity with time (100% for 2 months than decline to 20% over 2 years). People contagious after 4 days, don't notice symptoms (slow contacts in my bouncing ball model) until 7 days, infectious for 7-14 days (random), 20% no symptoms (no change in behavior). I used a chance a contract created an infection and time in proximity rather than an Ro... An engineer here, not a full medical study.

Using these assumptions, the vaccinated could live normally once 50% were vaccinated. The unvaccinated saw no benefit until 70% were vaccinated. At 90% vaccinated, the disease would die off. Now I hope government agencies have a better model than my 40 year old bouncing ball bacteria proportion model used to teach me video programing, but my take is those not willing to vaccinate are taking their own risks due to how incredibly long this disease is contagious.

FWIW, my sister was vaccinated the 1st day. Of hundreds of vaccinations, she had the worst reaction: 2 hours of chills (like with the flu, it woke her up). Otherwise, minor aches and the next day some fatigue. That was the worst of over six hundred vaccinations. I want any mRNA Vaccine. I'd do a stage 3 trial if the Vaccine (not placebo) was guaranteed.

Lightsaber


We still don't have any numbers regarding the J&J vaccine efficacy, do we?
Is it expected to be in the 90's like those of Pfizer and Moderna? Or closer to AstraZeneca's meager 62%?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:01 am

acavpics wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
What is the status of all the vaccines?
Pfizer: Out, on emergency basis, limited supply to medical workers, some vulnerable, and politically connected. mRNA Vaccine

Sputnik V: In distribution in Russia. 2nd dose different than first? (I'm asking as so many bad sources), further testing required for many regions.

Moderna: Approved for emergency use, in distribution. mRNA Vaccine

Oxford-AstraZeneca: Expected approval in UK this week. Some questions on effectiveness, some studies very effective. But easier storage and shipment than the cyro Vaccines:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB1cidRF

SinoVac: Data to be released soon. Verbal from Brazil implies less effective, but is this bad PR? :https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-sinovac/piecemeal-data-releases-threaten-to-undermine-sinovacs-covid-19-vaccine-idUSL4N2J80L1

Coronavac data from Brazil (2nd Chinese Vaccine) same mixed messages of 50% to 90% effective:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKBN28Z0PX

Johnson & Johnson (Janssen division): In late trials. Not in link, but I'm hearing good things, another mRNA, possibly out mid January:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.foxnews. ... llment.amp

Novavax in trials, manufactured antibodies, not mRNA, advantage easier (refrigeration) transportation:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vacc ... ed-states/

Clover (3rd Chinese Vaccine) starting trials, including in Philippines: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/c ... 19-vaccine

Now what about others? According to this link, at one point 219 Vaccines were in development. The world needs billions of doses.

Now a totally different conversation:
I love doing simulations. I assumed 95% Vaccine effectiveness, normal socialization (no movement restrictions) until symptoms, 5% of vaccinated could be asymptomatic spreaders (but I reduced to 4 days of spreading in my model), 20% naturally immune, so Ro of 3.0 modeled as 3.75 (really, set constants to get startup Ro= 3 with immune, I admit I had to fudge as it was bouncing balls) , those that get Covid19 have a declining immunity with time (100% for 2 months than decline to 20% over 2 years). People contagious after 4 days, don't notice symptoms (slow contacts in my bouncing ball model) until 7 days, infectious for 7-14 days (random), 20% no symptoms (no change in behavior). I used a chance a contract created an infection and time in proximity rather than an Ro... An engineer here, not a full medical study.

Using these assumptions, the vaccinated could live normally once 50% were vaccinated. The unvaccinated saw no benefit until 70% were vaccinated. At 90% vaccinated, the disease would die off. Now I hope government agencies have a better model than my 40 year old bouncing ball bacteria proportion model used to teach me video programing, but my take is those not willing to vaccinate are taking their own risks due to how incredibly long this disease is contagious.

FWIW, my sister was vaccinated the 1st day. Of hundreds of vaccinations, she had the worst reaction: 2 hours of chills (like with the flu, it woke her up). Otherwise, minor aches and the next day some fatigue. That was the worst of over six hundred vaccinations. I want any mRNA Vaccine. I'd do a stage 3 trial if the Vaccine (not placebo) was guaranteed.

Lightsaber


We still don't have any numbers regarding the J&J vaccine efficacy, do we?
Is it expected to be in the 90's like those of Pfizer and Moderna? Or closer to AstraZeneca's meager 62%?

I was wrong on the type. So far, very effective, but the J&J can loose effectiveness with time theoretically:

https://www.verywellhealth.com/johnson- ... ne-5093160

So now I am Pfizer & Moderna.

The J&J and Oxford-AstraZeneca as well as Sputnik V will be the most produced. For most people, that will be their only option. I posted a link upthread Moderna is still trying to ship 20 million doses (2 required per person) by year end, 1 million per day. I do not know the Pfizer production rate, but with two plants, it should accelerate.

The J&J and Oxford-AstraZeneca should be producible in the old Vaccine plants, so perhaps a switch. Initial J&J looks to be, per that link, over 90%.

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dtw2hyd
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:37 pm

Interestingly Bahrain approved Sinopharm vaccine before China and started mass inoculations, including children. Some news suggests third phase trails are not complete and Peru halted after an incident. UAE is also going through trails. Anybody has any insight into this vaccine and why the rush.

Bahrain approved on Dec 13
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN28N07Z

China approved few hours back on Dec 31
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html

Peru halts trails (Dec 13)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/peru-halts ... 1607807120
Peru may resume trials (Dec 16)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN28Q2ZN
All posts are just opinions.
 
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BaconButty
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:13 pm

acavpics wrote:
Or closer to AstraZeneca's meager 62%?


People need to stop obsessing over these efficacy figures. They indicate the effectiveness of the vaccine at things we don't really care about. All three stage 3 trials for vaccines that have been approved use symptomatic infection - however mild - as the definition of the "event", albeit with slight differences between each. While not having a week feeling rough is good, we *really* care about 3 things:

  • Preventing death
  • Preventing long term organ damage
  • decreasing transmission

The problem with the first two is that the events are relatively rare - to get statistically significant results you would need trials a good order of magnitude larger. So you use any symptomatic infection as a proxy, because pragmatically it's what you have to do. But a proxy isn't perfect. *In theory* you could have a vaccine that is 95% effective at reducing mild infections, but that the 0.5% who would otherwise die still do, so it's useless. And conversely, you could have a vaccine 62% effective in the study, but 100% effective at eliminating death and severe cases.

And the AZ/Oxford lot have been pointing this out. No deaths/Hospitalizations among the vaccinated, 1/10 in the control in the first batch of data. Not enough to be statistically convincing, though a further months data was supplied to the MHRA just before Christmas. As well as adding further events over time to the existing participants, a lot more participants have been added in. Add to that the way things have gone to shit in the UK at least, the current data should contain far more "events". And still no severe disease or death amongst the vaccinated.

There may be a reason for this. The Oxford vaccines strength is apparently in stimulating the T-Cell response, if the Guardian is to be believed. I fully expect Dr Lightning to rip me a new one here, but from my idiot googling the T-Cells seem to be the second line of defence - killing already infected cells, as opposed to antibodies which prevent the virus entering cells, or flag it up to microphages.

It's worth pointing out the the 95% confidence interval on the first batch of data (SD+SD) was wide at 41·0 to 75·7, it would appear with additional data that has narrowed to the top. 70% efficacy after a single dose suggests so. Unfortunately approval of the vaccine has coincided with the UK governments strategy to go single dose at risk, so the figures like the efficacy of the 2 dose regime have become largely irrelevant, but I expect we'll see the data in new year. I've no idea if the single dose strategy is a good idea, and I suspect it may have more to do with the schedule that vaccines will be arriving in the UK. At the point second doses would have become necessary (beginning of April) we should be receiving vaccines from Jannsen, Novovax (both of which we're at or near the front the queue for, and host stage 3 trials for) and Moderna (which we're down the queue for). It will be interesting to see what approach India takes.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant- ... KKBN2941WX
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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Tugger
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:39 pm

One interesting and to me slightly sad reason for the slower than expected vaccine roll-out, is that something like 20% of "front line workers" who are able to get the shot are refusing to do so at this time. I do support it being a free choice and not a forced one but find it surprising as they see first hand what COVID can do.

It appears to be a combination of factors, not just one thing. From pregnant workers who do not want the potential risk as there has not been any testing yet on that, to some distrusting pharma from years of watching the industry first hand not put patients well being as their primary goal, some are annoyed at being the "guinea pigs" with others looking at the often minority-heavy "front line" hearkening to past abuse of minorities for such testing, and yes there is some just plain distrust of the government, etc.

So this has slowed the planned roll out and meant replanning to quickly switch and expand the eligible pool of vaccine candidates.

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... ine-access

I still support a change to make the vaccine available to the public as well. Allow those who want it to get it, say a 50/50 split between a planned "front-line then down the list" approach and a lottery for the general public that want to get the shot(s).

Tugg
Last edited by Tugger on Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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stratosphere
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:47 pm

Not to change the subject but it is related. But an employee of Aurora medical Center took 500 doses of the Moderna vaccine out of the freezer intentionally and they had to toss them out.. I don't know what would possess someone to do that. But I would love to see some serious jail time for this in addition to just being fired if true.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB1cnkdL
 
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Tugger
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:00 pm

stratosphere wrote:
Not to change the subject but it is related. But an employee of Aurora medical Center took 500 doses of the Moderna vaccine out of the freezer intentionally and they had to toss them out.. I don't know what would possess someone to do that. But I would love to see some serious jail time for this in addition to just being fired if true.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB1cnkdL

One would hope. This would be "malicious destruction of property" or some such I think.

Also truly "a dick move". (regardless of the sex of the person that did it), in my opinion.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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BaconButty
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:43 pm

Tugger wrote:
One interesting and to me slightly sad reason for the slower than expected vaccine roll-out, is that something like 20% of "front line workers" who are able to get the shot are refusing to do so at this time. I do support it being a free choice and not a forced one but find it surprising as they see first hand what COVID can do.


Read the article, and the figures are all over the place, but 20% might not be bad? Aside from the pregnant women, a significant number will have already had the virus. That's probably not a bad reason to be "vaccine hesitant" as the article puts it. Of course the health and caring professions are not immune to nutjobs either.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:04 pm

Sinopham's Vaccine approved in China. I missed (in link) the Oxford-Astrazeneca was approved yesterday in the UK:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.foxnews. ... obally.amp

Tugger wrote:
One interesting and to me slightly sad reason for the slower than expected vaccine roll-out, is that something like 20% of "front line workers" who are able to get the shot are refusing to do so at this time. I do support it being a free choice and not a forced one but find it surprising as they see first hand what COVID can do.

It appears to be a combination of factors, not just one thing. From pregnant workers who do not want the potential risk as there has not been any testing yet on that, to some distrusting pharma from years of watching the industry first hand not put patients well being as their primary goal, some are annoyed at being the "guinea pigs" with others looking at the often minority-heavy "front line" hearkening to past abuse of minorities for such testing, and yes there is some just plain distrust of the government, etc.

So this has slowed the planned roll out and meant replanning to quickly switch and expand the eligible pool of vaccine candidates.

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... ine-access

I still support a change to make the vaccine available to the public as well. Allow those who want it to get it, say a 50/50 split between a planned "front-line then down the list" approach and a lottery for the general public that want to get the shot(s).

Tugg

One of my friends has a bad chronic condition. Everyone seeing that specialist that day, and a few more called in, were rushed down to be offered a defrosted Vaccine as so many hospital workers had refused. Her doctor and staff also received as well as other hospital workers (wasn't on the priority 1A list).

I doubt it will only be 20% refusing, because those who really don't want it are avoiding appointments and thus aren't yet in the stats.

This is a shame. My sister was yesterday "promoted" to head an ICU ward of Covid19 patients because the prior appointed doctor, who only before had mild hypertension, had a Covid19 induced heart attack and will thus be out at least 6 weeks. Now, she used to be the head doctor in a small ER and was in critical care, so this isn't much of a jump. She is vaccinated and had a reaction that indicates high immunity (hours of chills from Vaccine).

Please get vaccinated. My sister's hospital in Colorado is down several doctors and nursing staff is already fatigued. They had a plan to triple capacity+, however more staff being down than prior outbreaks is becoming an issue far earlier and with fewer patients than projections based off the less contagious strains of earlier this year, they will pause at double capacity even if it means patient fatalities.

I would get the vaccine today if I could.

Lightsaber
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:30 pm

stratosphere wrote:
Not to change the subject but it is related. But an employee of Aurora medical Center took 500 doses of the Moderna vaccine out of the freezer intentionally and they had to toss them out.. I don't know what would possess someone to do that. But I would love to see some serious jail time for this in addition to just being fired if true.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB1cnkdL


Accidental thawing is going to be an issue for Pfizer and Moderna. UK lost a batch of 1950. Germany lost few batches.

I think there need to be a local registry or mobile/social media to dispense those who are around.

I hope there is monitoring and notification on pharma cargo and truck drivers. These vaccines are precious, shouldn't be wasted.
All posts are just opinions.
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:58 pm

BaconButty wrote:
acavpics wrote:
Or closer to AstraZeneca's meager 62%?


People need to stop obsessing over these efficacy figures. They indicate the effectiveness of the vaccine at things we don't really care about. All three stage 3 trials for vaccines that have been approved use symptomatic infection - however mild - as the definition of the "event", albeit with slight differences between each. While not having a week feeling rough is good, we *really* care about 3 things:

  • Preventing death
  • Preventing long term organ damage
  • decreasing transmission

The problem with the first two is that the events are relatively rare - to get statistically significant results you would need trials a good order of magnitude larger. So you use any symptomatic infection as a proxy, because pragmatically it's what you have to do. But a proxy isn't perfect. *In theory* you could have a vaccine that is 95% effective at reducing mild infections, but that the 0.5% who would otherwise die still do, so it's useless. And conversely, you could have a vaccine 62% effective in the study, but 100% effective at eliminating death and severe cases.

And the AZ/Oxford lot have been pointing this out. No deaths/Hospitalizations among the vaccinated, 1/10 in the control in the first batch of data. Not enough to be statistically convincing, though a further months data was supplied to the MHRA just before Christmas. As well as adding further events over time to the existing participants, a lot more participants have been added in. Add to that the way things have gone to shit in the UK at least, the current data should contain far more "events". And still no severe disease or death amongst the vaccinated.


I respect your thoughts.

This virus has resulted in so much disruption to health care that I think the world needs to take a pragmatic approach and to grasp at any benefits offered by vaccines. However statistically wanting the data from trials may be, many tens of thousands of people have received a vaccine over the last few months without - as far as I can see - serious side effects being seen (apart from side effects in people with histories of allergic reactions etc).

In order to free up resources to enable other ailments to be dealt with, I think that the maxim that perfection is the enemy of the good needs to be applied in this extraordinary instance.and that the world should throw perfect caution to the winds. I would hazard that monumentally more death and disability from non-COVID causes is resulting indirectly from delay in vaccination than will result from rushing 'unproven' vaccines into service.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:07 pm

art wrote:
BaconButty wrote:

I respect your thoughts.

This virus has resulted in so much disruption to health care that I think the world needs to take a pragmatic approach and to grasp at any benefits offered by vaccines.


I am highly skeptical that the current crop of politicians in charge is capable of being pragmatic, because the only thing we have seen so far is reactionary behavior induced by hysterical tabloid headlines.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:48 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
art wrote:
BaconButty wrote:

I respect your thoughts.

This virus has resulted in so much disruption to health care that I think the world needs to take a pragmatic approach and to grasp at any benefits offered by vaccines.


I am highly skeptical that the current crop of politicians in charge is capable of being pragmatic, because the only thing we have seen so far is reactionary behavior induced by hysterical tabloid headlines.

I would go further. There was always Vaccine hesitation, the current politicians were arbitrary and slanted lockdowns to benefit their supporters resulting in an amplified distrust of government (e.g., California shut down outdoor farmers markets, small stores, but kept ooen supermarkets). The reaction so far has been economically far worse than if they just were sick and got over it.

I will be vacinated as soon as possible. I'm talking about so many here. The Vaccines were rushed and are only available on an emergency basis.

This unfortunately goes further. Since the main stream media only took one side, you have a fraction of the population no longer believing them.

Look here on a.net, there have been rants on any requirement to vaccinate. I personally want to be vaccinated and do not want any superspreaders coming in, so I am ok with vaccinations required for travel, bars, concerts, etc. On the other hand, I will not download the cell phone app as I have seen how punative California is to divorced fathers, so I will forgo a layer of protection as I see the possible legal issues as being huge.

As I noted upthread, I did my own modeling and determined if more than half are vaccinated, the vaccinated are well protected, but even 70% vaccinated does *nothing* for the unvaccinated (well, almost nothing). Most countries won't hit 75% plus vaccinated in 2021. Fun times ahead.

Lightsaber
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stratosphere
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:01 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
stratosphere wrote:
Not to change the subject but it is related. But an employee of Aurora medical Center took 500 doses of the Moderna vaccine out of the freezer intentionally and they had to toss them out.. I don't know what would possess someone to do that. But I would love to see some serious jail time for this in addition to just being fired if true.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB1cnkdL


Accidental thawing is going to be an issue for Pfizer and Moderna. UK lost a batch of 1950. Germany lost few batches.

I think there need to be a local registry or mobile/social media to dispense those who are around.

I hope there is monitoring and notification on pharma cargo and truck drivers. These vaccines are precious, shouldn't be wasted.


Accidental yes but was admitted it was on purpose. Also a male pharmacist . Lock him up

https://www.fox6now.com/news/57-people- ... tional-act
 
acavpics
Topic Author
Posts: 543
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:54 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:05 am

Sooner or later, there is going to be a point where the folks who responsibly get vaccinated "stop caring" about the unvaccinated. We have been told since the beginning that the way out of this pandemic is with a vaccine. Now that two of the vaccines are 90+% effective, I highly doubt that the vaccinated members of the general public are going to continue to put their lives on hold.

Once we are vaccinated, we are going to gather with loved ones (those who are vaccinated), travel, and reopen our lives. Some random strangers refusing to vaccinate should not stop us from living our lives. We are not waiting for how ever many months/years it takes for the entire world to get vaccinated. Life is too short for that.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2620
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:03 am

Sooner or later, people will be fed up with the entire pandemic and simply no longer care what politicians and medical personnel say. Especially in California people seem to get more angry and furious by the day. Eventually it will reach its boiling point and people will take matters in their own hands.

Strict Covid-19 Restrictions Prompt Defiance and Anger in California
https://www.wsj.com/articles/strict-cov ... 1608123601

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... laygrounds

California Is Coming Apart Over COVID
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12 ... id-19.html
 
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flyingclrs727
Posts: 2749
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:54 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
My opinion is based on how the pharma companies have constructed their trials, ie the extreme shortness of the trials carried out by Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca.
These have wrapped their trials already instead of looking at how long the protection lasts.
If they were confident that the protection would last, why wrap up the trials so early?
They could have gotten their EUA's based on interim results and let the trials continue to measure the actual duration and strength of protection, as anybody normal would do.


I am in the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine trial. They are studying us for 2 years to see how long the immunity lasts. Every time I go in, they give me a mini-physical and take 8 vials of blood. Also per the disclosure agreement, the company performing the trail can keep the vials up to 15 years. If some new Coronavirus comes along a few years from now, they can find out if the antibodies in the blood samples react to the new variant.

It would be unethical to continue keeping vaccine trial subjects unvaccinated long term while the pandemic is accelerating. Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca have already proved their vaccines are safe and effective for preventing disease in vaccine recipients. Furthermore in this day and age, how much longer will people in the study take being kept in the dark about whether they are in the experimental group getting the vaccine or the control group that does not? I'm sure someone will be selling test kits that allow people to know whether not not they have COVID-19 antibodies. At some point test subjects will be able to find out themselves outside of the trial whether they have or have not been vaccinated. People could opt to drop out and get vaccinated outside the trial. Also knowing which group one is in would probably bias the results of interviews.

Before agreeing to join the study, recruits were told that at a certain point the study could be unblinded and people in the control group would be offered the vaccine ahead of the general population. My guess is that once the FDA certifies the vaccines for ordinary and not emergency use, the studies will be unblinded. The 15K people in the control group will still be continued to be followed once they are vaccinated. There is value in continuing to take their blood samples.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9980
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:52 am

Tugger wrote:
stratosphere wrote:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/hospital-employee-fired-for-deliberately-removing-covid-vaccine-vials-from-refrigerator/ar-BB1cnkdL

One would hope. This would be "malicious destruction of property" or some such I think.

from the news link:
On Monday, Advocate Aurora Health officials said in a statement that an employee had removed the vials from a refrigerator to access other items and failed to put them back overnight on Friday. An internal investigation led officials to believe the failure was due to an "unintended human error."


no need to assume malice when incompetence or bad luck suffices.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1445
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:27 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
My opinion is based on how the pharma companies have constructed their trials, ie the extreme shortness of the trials carried out by Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca.
These have wrapped their trials already instead of looking at how long the protection lasts.
If they were confident that the protection would last, why wrap up the trials so early?
They could have gotten their EUA's based on interim results and let the trials continue to measure the actual duration and strength of protection, as anybody normal would do.


I am in the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine trial. They are studying us for 2 years to see how long the immunity lasts. Every time I go in, they give me a mini-physical and take 8 vials of blood. Also per the disclosure agreement, the company performing the trail can keep the vials up to 15 years. If some new Coronavirus comes along a few years from now, they can find out if the antibodies in the blood samples react to the new variant.

It would be unethical to continue keeping vaccine trial subjects unvaccinated long term while the pandemic is accelerating. Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca have already proved their vaccines are safe and effective for preventing disease in vaccine recipients. Furthermore in this day and age, how much longer will people in the study take being kept in the dark about whether they are in the experimental group getting the vaccine or the control group that does not? I'm sure someone will be selling test kits that allow people to know whether not not they have COVID-19 antibodies. At some point test subjects will be able to find out themselves outside of the trial whether they have or have not been vaccinated. People could opt to drop out and get vaccinated outside the trial. Also knowing which group one is in would probably bias the results of interviews.

Before agreeing to join the study, recruits were told that at a certain point the study could be unblinded and people in the control group would be offered the vaccine ahead of the general population. My guess is that once the FDA certifies the vaccines for ordinary and not emergency use, the studies will be unblinded. The 15K people in the control group will still be continued to be followed once they are vaccinated. There is value in continuing to take their blood samples.



I have a question for you.
As a trial participant, have you been sheltering/working from home or do you work a people facing job with high amounts of contacts? Or are you somewhere in the middle?

I'm interested in this, because the few publications that I've read from trial participants who spoke up about side effects were from intellectual people who are working from home or front line workers most likely to already have immunity from previous exposure such as physicians. Not exactly profiles that are helpful for obtaining a neutral trial result.

I wonder how much profiling was done to decide who would get the vaccine and who would get the placebo.
Because at the end of the day, it's people making those decisions, and people are biased by nature.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/coronav ... aches.html

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