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94717
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:42 am

Most part of Scandinavia and I suppose EU over 18 will be vaccinated to midsommar or mid June.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:44 am

In EU and Sweden shown below the number of vaccine deliverance increases fast. Its mainly Pfizer and Moderna.

At least in Sweden we will not get big batches of AZ the next 10 days anyway, and there is health care professionals to give it to. The other vaccines on the other hands comes now in big quantities so they will anyway handle 65+ anyway. AZ will after Health care personal go to 60-65 years old, probably pretty soon before the general population 18-60 get it next and by then it will be bigger batches of deliverance.

I feel that the authorities while other 2 produces right now seems to deliver faster then expected the Swedish government anyway see that the weakest that actually dies will all have their first mid next week, and after that they will get their second shot after 28 days so the first ones that got the shots late 2019 shall be finished by now.

In this link you can see that until week 3 342 300 doses was delivered, week 4 67 275 doses week 5 110 370 doses week 6 171 570 doses week 7 285 030 doses. Of those AZ only will deliver week 6 45 600 doses and week 7 52 800 doses, which consider that Stockholm region health care system employs around 50 000 persons it will be no problem.

With a population of 10 000 000 people, around 300 000 very weak older people. So with the batches coming the next week the weakest will be adressed and mid April all 60 +.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smi ... av-vaccin/
 
WIederling
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:06 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
As more people are vaccinated it likely will be that many people not spreading the virus (not demonstrated yet), so we may see the crisis slowly resolving. Particularly if people would continue (or begin - LOL) being careful.


I'm really keen on seeing how numbers develop for Israel. ( afaics they are distrinctly ahead in population inoculation.)
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:38 pm

WIederling wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
As more people are vaccinated it likely will be that many people not spreading the virus (not demonstrated yet), so we may see the crisis slowly resolving. Particularly if people would continue (or begin - LOL) being careful.


I'm really keen on seeing how numbers develop for Israel. ( afaics they are distrinctly ahead in population inoculation.)


While vaccinations are progressing well in Israel, young people hospitalizations are increasing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/10/israels ... ctims.html
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 4128
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:12 pm

A Canadian trial with using Interferon Lambda is showing promise at reducing COVID symptoms and severity:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir ... -1.5297976

TORONTO -- A new antiviral drug, delivered in a single shot, could be a key tool to slow community spread, according to a Canadian study that shows the treatment may be able to help those with milder cases of COVID-19 recover from the infection much faster.

When our bodies are attacked by COVID-19, there are molecules called interferons that attack and kill the virus.

In a study of 60 COVID-19 outpatients — patients well enough to be at home in isolation — doctors in Toronto found that those given an injection of interferons called peginterferon-lambda were able to quickly reduce the amount of virus in the body.

“We were excited to see the potency of the antiviral effects,” Dr. Jordan Feld, one of the authors of the study, told CTV News. “So we really saw the virus levels falling much faster than what we've seen with most of the other treatments that have been studied to date.”

According to the study, published Friday in Lancet Respiratory Medicine, those injected were more than four times more likely to have cleared the infection altogether within seven days compared to patients who had been given a placebo shot.

In addition, far fewer patients who received the shot had their condition worsen to a point where they needed emergency care.


Sounds promising, and combined with vaccines reducing the spread, it seems like there's light at the end of the tunnel at stopping this pandemic soon.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:20 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
DocLightning, you seem to have a lot of faith in the vaccines and seem to be extremely knowledgeable about them.
Can you give us your timeline on where the vaccines are going to take us in the coming months and years, and when we will be freed from the pest?


I think that depends on how you look at "freed from the past." The HIV pandemic is still ongoing and the world has never returned to pre-HIV days.

As for this, I think that the new equilibrium for this virus will be that once everyone has been infected with it, we will have antibodies that prevent it from doing the worst things it does (invading the blood, causing platelets to activate, invading the nervous system) and instead, as the virus mutates we will get reinfected with new variants that give us a mild cold, just like the other four endemic human coronaviruses. If not for vaccines, this process would probably take 2-3 years. With vaccines, it should be done this year for many of us. But there are parts of the world where the vaccines will arrive more slowly...or not at all.

After SARS-1, much of SE Asia normalized wearing surgical masks when sick. I suspect this may become a worldwide norm for the foreseeable future, but I also don't see universal masking in public being a permanent thing.\

dtw2hyd wrote:
Bad news
Michigan general public may not get vaccine until October. We are getting 150K doses a week, even with Biden plan to increase by 20%, there wouldn't be enough. So goal pushed by 4-5 months.


I'm skeptical. The issue is that most of the models that predict completion of population vaccination are based on "vaccines per day." This is a problem when the total number of days since the program started is relatively small. The first vaccines started going into arms only six weeks ago. So by some models, those two days of snow in the NE US that shut down vaccinations over a large geographic will have pushed back the projected completion date to some time in 2022. But that's not realistic that a two day delay leads to a six month delay.

Just today, Pfizer announced [url="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/02/07/pfizer-expects-cut-covid-19-vaccine-production-time-almost-50/4423251001/"]that they would halve their production time for each batch[/url], which might double their production capacity. In addition, the J&J and Novavax candidates will be coming online in the next 1-2 months.

So I expect that late summer would be a pessimistic prognosis.

WIederling wrote:
I'm really keen on seeing how numbers develop for Israel. ( afaics they are distrinctly ahead in population inoculation.)


Falling rather quickly, but they didn't reach the kind of peak that the US did. Israel has neither Thanksgiving nor Christmas (and Chanukah is just not the big deal in Judaism that Christmas is in Christianity). But [url="https://www.vox.com/22262509/israel-covid-19-vaccinations-serious-illness-decline"]cases are falling, especially among the vaccinated.[/url] In Israel as in all places, there are complex forces at work. Younger people, who have not yet been vaccinated, are starting to push back against continued lockdowns, so they are driving cases up as the vaccines drive the cases down. In addition, keep in mind that this virus has a 5-14 day incubation period, so new cases will take some time to respond and hospitalizations will respond even more slowly.

ThePointblank wrote:
A Canadian trial with using Interferon Lambda is showing promise at reducing COVID symptoms and severity:


Interferons are part of the body's "innate immune response" against viruses. We all are familiar with antibodies, but antibodies take 1-2 weeks to develop and months to perfect. If we waited on antibodies for a novel virus infection, the virus would overwhelm our bodies. So there are faster and cruder responses called interferons that shut down cells so that viruses cannot reproduce in them. Now, this is crude and interferons make you feel lousy (which is why viruses make you feel awful). But every successful virus must also have a way around these systems. For coronaviruses, they completely abolish interferon production in infected cells, which means that the immune system doesn't notice the infection for several days until it finally gets too big to continue to hide. At this point, a massive rush of interferon comes in and that's probably part of what is making people sick with this virus.

An idea that has been circulating in the medical community for some time is to give a dose of interferon to people in the earlier stages of infection to knock down viral levels. It has to be given early, underscoring the importance of prompt testing and diagnosis. But if that can give the immune system a jump start on the virus by knocking viral loads down early while the immune system works on its adaptive response (antibodies and friends), then that can keep people from getting sick.

More importantly, because interferons work on the body itself rather than directly on the virus, this approach may be useful for future pandemic viruses.
 
737307
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Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:58 pm

Seems like a new therapy with "EXO-CD24" completely cures COVID-19 patients within 3-5 days.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3659299-i ... ithin-days

Perhaps Doc can shed some light on this (what exactly is "EXO-CD24' and how does it work?), as I have no idea what this is about. it does sound very promising though.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:10 am

South Africa said it would halt a planned rollout of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine after a clinical trial found that it doesn’t appear to protect recipients against mild and moderate illness from a fast-spreading new strain.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazenec ... 5?mod=e2tw
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:13 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Perhaps Doc can shed some light on this (what exactly is "EXO-CD24' and how does it work?), as I have no idea what this is about. it does sound very promising though.


I confess that immunology was never my strongsuit, but basically, it's another one of these immunological proteins that help to flog the body's antiviral defenses into action.

mercure1 wrote:
South Africa said it would halt a planned rollout of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine after a clinical trial found that it doesn’t appear to protect recipients against mild and moderate illness from a fast-spreading new strain.


These data were based on a small trial and they were giving the two doses a month apart. There is no information on whether it decreases severe cases, which is what actually matters
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:21 am

DocLightning wrote:
These data were based on a small trial and they were giving the two doses a month apart. There is no information on whether it decreases severe cases, which is what actually matters


:checkmark: :checkmark:

Unless the SA government has replacement doses from another supplier to give out to their citizens instead of the AZ ones, they're quite simply putting lives at risk.

While there is no concrete evidence yet, there is good reasons to think that the AZ vaccine would still protect against more severe cases and deaths, even if it doesn't prevent the patient from getting sick altogether and even if it may not be as effective as other vaccines.
Some protection is better than nothing, especially these days when vaccine availability is still limited and the effects of the virus are taking a huge toll on public health.

This is like telling people not to wear seatbelts because there's no proof they prevent injury during car crashes.
 
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Challenger007
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:27 pm

Francoflier wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
These data were based on a small trial and they were giving the two doses a month apart. There is no information on whether it decreases severe cases, which is what actually matters


:checkmark: :checkmark:

Unless the SA government has replacement doses from another supplier to give out to their citizens instead of the AZ ones, they're quite simply putting lives at risk.

While there is no concrete evidence yet, there is good reasons to think that the AZ vaccine would still protect against more severe cases and deaths, even if it doesn't prevent the patient from getting sick altogether and even if it may not be as effective as other vaccines.
Some protection is better than nothing, especially these days when vaccine availability is still limited and the effects of the virus are taking a huge toll on public health.

This is like telling people not to wear seatbelts because there's no proof they prevent injury during car crashes.


It seems to me that it is better not to risk your health. it is better to wait for a normal vaccine than to agree to a poorly tested drug. Voluntarily subscribe to being a guinea pig - why do you need it? I understand that African countries are lagging behind in development, but this does not mean that there are bad people there and you can experiment on them.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:39 pm

Challenger007 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
These data were based on a small trial and they were giving the two doses a month apart. There is no information on whether it decreases severe cases, which is what actually matters


:checkmark: :checkmark:

Unless the SA government has replacement doses from another supplier to give out to their citizens instead of the AZ ones, they're quite simply putting lives at risk.

While there is no concrete evidence yet, there is good reasons to think that the AZ vaccine would still protect against more severe cases and deaths, even if it doesn't prevent the patient from getting sick altogether and even if it may not be as effective as other vaccines.
Some protection is better than nothing, especially these days when vaccine availability is still limited and the effects of the virus are taking a huge toll on public health.

This is like telling people not to wear seatbelts because there's no proof they prevent injury during car crashes.


It seems to me that it is better not to risk your health. it is better to wait for a normal vaccine than to agree to a poorly tested drug. Voluntarily subscribe to being a guinea pig - why do you need it? I understand that African countries are lagging behind in development, but this does not mean that there are bad people there and you can experiment on them.


The doubt surrounding the AZ vaccine concerns its effectiveness against the new versions of the virus, not its safety, which has been proven to be excellent thanks to large scale testing on many 'guinea pigs' already. Your health is not at risk from the vaccine, it is at risk from the virus, and the vaccine can help fight it, even if it is not the most effective one.

I have no idea what you mean by 'a normal vaccine' but if you refer to the new mRNA technology used in some covid vaccines, then the Astra Zeneca vaccine is not one of those. It is in fact a vaccine based on a tried and tested technology.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:07 pm

Allegedly a $44 Million software is the reason behind vaccine rollout problems.

The CDC ordered software that was meant to manage the vaccine rollout. Instead, it has been plagued by problems and abandoned by most states.


https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/0 ... -problems/
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:12 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I have no idea what you mean by 'a normal vaccine' but if you refer to the new mRNA technology used in some covid vaccines, then the Astra Zeneca vaccine is not one of those. It is in fact a vaccine based on a tried and tested technology.


To be fair, Adenovirus-vectored vaccines have never been approved in human vaccines before with the exception of Johnson & Johnson's ebola vaccine ZABDENO, which was a heterologous prime-boost regimen based on their Adenovirus 26 platform (same as used in their current COVID-19 vaccine) for the first dose and a Modified Vaccinia Ankara for the second dose. Adenovirus-vectored vaccines have been used for veterinary applications, namely the rabies vaccine baits that get dropped in the woods for wild animals to eat.

But I don't think there is much risk from taking the AZ vaccine; it just doesn't seem to be an incredibly effective approach.

By contrast, both the [url="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01270-4#MOESM1"]Pfizer/BNT[/url] and [url="https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against"]Moderna[/url] vaccines appear to still effectively neutralize the B.1.351 variant first detected in South Africa, although clinical efficacy data are lacking.

Coronaviruses have multiple immune evasion strategies. In fact, over 50% of their genome appears to be dedicated to immune evasion. These effects can cause the immune system to employ the wrong suppression mechanisms and this immune dysfunction can cause enormous damage to the body, frequently resulting in death or permanent injury.

No vaccine has risks like that.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:12 pm

Johnson and Johnson CEO says people likely will need annual Covid vaccine shots as long term immunity is unknown and the virus continues to evolve globally.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/09/covid-v ... years.html
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:54 am

mercure1 wrote:
Johnson and Johnson CEO says people likely will need annual Covid vaccine shots as long term immunity is unknown and the virus continues to evolve globally.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/09/covid-v ... years.html


I disagree with him. I think that as the percentage of humans who have been infected approaches 100, we will see that this becomes a common cold virus that gives people a cough and sore throat and perhaps an upset stomach.

The human immune system is much more complex than just antibodies. We also have T cells that can clear infected cells, and those are much less prone to losing effect due to antigenic drift than antibodies are. Moreover, the Pfizer vaccine was just shown to generate serum that can neutralize SARS-CoV-1, which has 76% similarity in the spike to SARS-CoV-2, so I think that the vaccines will offer broader protection than that.
 
CaptainHaresh
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:44 pm

Current injection rates seem to be far too low to reach herd immunity.

Image

from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


With the exception of 6 countries, most of the world is at below 0.2% of population injected per day with one of both shots. At this rate, 50% vaccination is 500 days away, ignoring the fact that booster shots may be required for those already fully vaccinated. If we add a booster shot at day 365, 50% vaccination is delayed to day 635 and herd immunity gets delayed to infinity.

As of now, according to the data, 70% herd immunity within the year seems out of reach except for Israel, UAE, UK, US and Malta, if the vaccines work as advertised (mutations included) and if they can maintain the current injection rates as minimum.

Does it make sense to supply vaccines to countries in quantities insufficient to reach herd immunity?
For countries that can't get enough vaccine supplies to reach herd immunity, does it make sense to keep all their bets on the vaccines?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:40 pm

The one shot vaccines are, IIRC, cranking up supply particularly in India. We should see those numbers going up. The US, Canada, UK, and even the EU will have vaccinated most of the willing over the next 3-5 months, and supplies will start being diverted to developing countries. It was only in late January that vaccines became available in any number. Mid April it will be possible to determine vaccine availability throughout the world. I am hoping the US, UK, and EU will be providing funds for the cranking up supplies, and delivery.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:32 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
Current injection rates seem to be far too low to reach herd immunity.

Image

from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


With the exception of 6 countries, most of the world is at below 0.2% of population injected per day with one of both shots. At this rate, 50% vaccination is 500 days away, ignoring the fact that booster shots may be required for those already fully vaccinated. If we add a booster shot at day 365, 50% vaccination is delayed to day 635 and herd immunity gets delayed to infinity.

As of now, according to the data, 70% herd immunity within the year seems out of reach except for Israel, UAE, UK, US and Malta, if the vaccines work as advertised (mutations included) and if they can maintain the current injection rates as minimum.

Does it make sense to supply vaccines to countries in quantities insufficient to reach herd immunity?
For countries that can't get enough vaccine supplies to reach herd immunity, does it make sense to keep all their bets on the vaccines?

That all assumes current injection rates remain the same, which they assuredly will not.
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:17 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
Current injection rates seem to be far too low to reach herd immunity.

Image

from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


With the exception of 6 countries, most of the world is at below 0.2% of population injected per day with one of both shots. At this rate, 50% vaccination is 500 days away, ignoring the fact that booster shots may be required for those already fully vaccinated. If we add a booster shot at day 365, 50% vaccination is delayed to day 635 and herd immunity gets delayed to infinity.

As of now, according to the data, 70% herd immunity within the year seems out of reach except for Israel, UAE, UK, US and Malta, if the vaccines work as advertised (mutations included) and if they can maintain the current injection rates as minimum.

Does it make sense to supply vaccines to countries in quantities insufficient to reach herd immunity?
For countries that can't get enough vaccine supplies to reach herd immunity, does it make sense to keep all their bets on the vaccines?

That all assumes current injection rates remain the same, which they assuredly will not.


It's already the 3rd month since the vaccinations started and the vaccines have been in production for much longer.
Many countries haven't even started vaccinating and are waiting to be delivered their first doses.
There are already delivery delays at the current rates as vaccine manufacturers are unable to ramp-up their production.
What makes you optimistic that the injection rates in each country will increase to a level significant enough to reach herd immunity soon enough to make a difference?


After 2 months of vaccinations in Israel, they are stagnating at high infection and death numbers while in a lock-down and the elderly were vaccinated weeks ago. Media and studies are very eager to hail the vaccine for improvements that I don't see.
Can any of you see any evidence of improvements that can be attributed to the vaccine as opposed to other measures? If so, can you point to that evidence?
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3614
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:30 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
Current injection rates seem to be far too low to reach herd immunity.

Image

from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


With the exception of 6 countries, most of the world is at below 0.2% of population injected per day with one of both shots. At this rate, 50% vaccination is 500 days away, ignoring the fact that booster shots may be required for those already fully vaccinated. If we add a booster shot at day 365, 50% vaccination is delayed to day 635 and herd immunity gets delayed to infinity.

As of now, according to the data, 70% herd immunity within the year seems out of reach except for Israel, UAE, UK, US and Malta, if the vaccines work as advertised (mutations included) and if they can maintain the current injection rates as minimum.

Does it make sense to supply vaccines to countries in quantities insufficient to reach herd immunity?
For countries that can't get enough vaccine supplies to reach herd immunity, does it make sense to keep all their bets on the vaccines?

That all assumes current injection rates remain the same, which they assuredly will not.


It's already the 3rd month since the vaccinations started and the vaccines have been in production for much longer.
Many countries haven't even started vaccinating and are waiting to be delivered their first doses.
There are already delivery delays at the current rates as vaccine manufacturers are unable to ramp-up their production.
What makes you optimistic that the injection rates in each country will increase to a level significant enough to reach herd immunity soon enough to make a difference?

Really we’re barely 2 months into widespread vaccinations. Daily vaccination rates in the US have already increased from 400K to over 1 million. Logically as additional vaccines are approved and supply continues to increase, vaccination rates will go up. Pfizer has just announced cuts in production times for its vaccine and will now deliver its full order to the US ahead of schedule. You seem to ignore all of this.


CaptainHaresh wrote:
After 2 months of vaccinations in Israel, they are stagnating at high infection and death numbers while in a lock-down and the elderly were vaccinated weeks ago. Media and studies are very eager to hail the vaccine for improvements that I don't see.
Can any of you see any evidence of improvements that can be attributed to the vaccine as opposed to other measures? If so, can you point to that evidence?

You sure about that? All reports indicate deaths, hospitalizations, and cases among the fully vaccinated are now substantially down.
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:48 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
That all assumes current injection rates remain the same, which they assuredly will not.


It's already the 3rd month since the vaccinations started and the vaccines have been in production for much longer.
Many countries haven't even started vaccinating and are waiting to be delivered their first doses.
There are already delivery delays at the current rates as vaccine manufacturers are unable to ramp-up their production.
What makes you optimistic that the injection rates in each country will increase to a level significant enough to reach herd immunity soon enough to make a difference?

Really we’re barely 2 months into widespread vaccinations. Daily vaccination rates in the US have already increased from 400K to over 1 million. Logically as additional vaccines are approved and supply continues to increase, vaccination rates will go up. Pfizer has just announced cuts in production times for its vaccine and will now deliver its full order to the US ahead of schedule. You seem to ignore all of this.


CaptainHaresh wrote:
After 2 months of vaccinations in Israel, they are stagnating at high infection and death numbers while in a lock-down and the elderly were vaccinated weeks ago. Media and studies are very eager to hail the vaccine for improvements that I don't see.
Can any of you see any evidence of improvements that can be attributed to the vaccine as opposed to other measures? If so, can you point to that evidence?

You sure about that? All reports indicate deaths, hospitalizations, and cases among the fully vaccinated are now substantially down.


A few hours ago, EU leader Vor der Leyen admitted that they were overly optimistic about their vaccination strategy, in particular mass production and on-time delivery. It is relevant considering that every miscalculation results in thousands of deaths.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56009251


About Israel I just see that the current wave is lasting longer and is coming down slower than previous waves.
I also see those reports of noted improvements, but find it difficult to find hard evidence of a marked improvement of the local epidemiologic (infections/deaths) situation compared to other countries that have much lower vaccination rates.
If the vaccine is as good as advertised, Shirley the curves should be dropping like a brick by now?
 
flyguy89
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Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 9:07 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:

It's already the 3rd month since the vaccinations started and the vaccines have been in production for much longer.
Many countries haven't even started vaccinating and are waiting to be delivered their first doses.
There are already delivery delays at the current rates as vaccine manufacturers are unable to ramp-up their production.
What makes you optimistic that the injection rates in each country will increase to a level significant enough to reach herd immunity soon enough to make a difference?

Really we’re barely 2 months into widespread vaccinations. Daily vaccination rates in the US have already increased from 400K to over 1 million. Logically as additional vaccines are approved and supply continues to increase, vaccination rates will go up. Pfizer has just announced cuts in production times for its vaccine and will now deliver its full order to the US ahead of schedule. You seem to ignore all of this.


CaptainHaresh wrote:
After 2 months of vaccinations in Israel, they are stagnating at high infection and death numbers while in a lock-down and the elderly were vaccinated weeks ago. Media and studies are very eager to hail the vaccine for improvements that I don't see.
Can any of you see any evidence of improvements that can be attributed to the vaccine as opposed to other measures? If so, can you point to that evidence?

You sure about that? All reports indicate deaths, hospitalizations, and cases among the fully vaccinated are now substantially down.


A few hours ago, EU leader Vor der Leyen admitted that they were overly optimistic about their vaccination strategy, in particular mass production and on-time delivery. It is relevant considering that every miscalculation results in thousands of deaths.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56009251

That still doesn’t address your notion that vaccination rates won’t increase as their production and supply inevitably ramps up.


CaptainHaresh wrote:
About Israel I just see that the current wave is lasting longer and is coming down slower than previous waves.
I also see those reports of noted improvements, but find it difficult to find hard evidence of a marked improvement of the local epidemiologic (infections/deaths) situation compared to other countries that have much lower vaccination rates.
If the vaccine is as good as advertised, Shirley the curves should be dropping like a brick by now?

Except you do actually have numbers and data pointing to the positive impact of the vaccines.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 10:20 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:

Really we’re barely 2 months into widespread vaccinations. Daily vaccination rates in the US have already increased from 400K to over 1 million. Logically as additional vaccines are approved and supply continues to increase, vaccination rates will go up. Pfizer has just announced cuts in production times for its vaccine and will now deliver its full order to the US ahead of schedule. You seem to ignore all of this.



You sure about that? All reports indicate deaths, hospitalizations, and cases among the fully vaccinated are now substantially down.


A few hours ago, EU leader Vor der Leyen admitted that they were overly optimistic about their vaccination strategy, in particular mass production and on-time delivery. It is relevant considering that every miscalculation results in thousands of deaths.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56009251

That still doesn’t address your notion that vaccination rates won’t increase as their production and supply inevitably ramps up.


CaptainHaresh wrote:
About Israel I just see that the current wave is lasting longer and is coming down slower than previous waves.
I also see those reports of noted improvements, but find it difficult to find hard evidence of a marked improvement of the local epidemiologic (infections/deaths) situation compared to other countries that have much lower vaccination rates.
If the vaccine is as good as advertised, Shirley the curves should be dropping like a brick by now?

Except you do actually have numbers and data pointing to the positive impact of the vaccines.

The Israeli cases are a facinating case study.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2AA1L5

Israel has said it would issue an official app allowing users to link up to their Health Ministry files and show if they have been vaccinated against or recovered from COVID-19, with presumed immunity, in order to gain entry to leisure facilities.

Those to whom neither applies would be able to get a COVID-19 test and, if the result is negative, display it on the app for up to 72 hours of similar access, officials have said.


The world is doing worse in the current wave.

40% are vaccinated, by "Green Pass" time, 60% will be vaccinated. I modeled Covid19 as an amateur project. My model has little help until 50% are vaccinated, and then only for the vaccinated. The vaccine is good, but people are opening up behavior faster than Vaccination.

The vaccine is 62% effective after one dose:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/ ... 53259/amp/


The bragging is about one dose

https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wel ... i-BB1dzB0h

They are seeing a drop in age 60+ cases who were first vaccinated. My opinion is the drop happens 4+ days after the 2nd dose.

If you listen to the above video they are starting to see a drop in select groups. There will always be a time lag between Vaccination and effectiveness. It was initially expected to be six weeks (first dose, three weeks, 2nd dose three weeks then protected). We're doing a little better than that.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 10:30 pm

Now to positive news, there are a number of vaccines, in order I can best remember them being approved:
Pfizer
Moderna
Oxford-AstraZeneca
Sputnik V
Sinofarm
Johnson & Johnson
Bharat Covaxin (technically, hasn't proven effecacy, or I couldn't find a source).

So supply should increase. There are other possible candidates too. But with 7 in production, supply will ramp up.

Pfizer is targeting 2 billion doses in 2021:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pfiz ... SKBN2A21EO

Moderna building to 1 billion doses in 2021:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.finanzen ... 1030004884

The Oxford-Astrazeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Sinofarm, and Covaxin will be the volume Vaccines. They will make the difference.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 10, 2021 10:58 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
About Israel I just see that the current wave is lasting longer and is coming down slower than previous waves.
I also see those reports of noted improvements, but find it difficult to find hard evidence of a marked improvement of the local epidemiologic (infections/deaths) situation compared to other countries that have much lower vaccination rates.
If the vaccine is as good as advertised, Shirley the curves should be dropping like a brick by now?

Except you do actually have numbers and data pointing to the positive impact of the vaccines.


I thought I'd go to the source, fully expecting it to contradict @CaptainHaresh , given the positive headlines I'd seen. Unless google translate is failing me, it didn't.

The percentage of positive tests, for example, is pretty much at the same level as in mid December. The number of new infections has come down, but if you notice, they're doing less tests than earlier, so that's not so positive. And they've had a lockdown in between - I would have expected that to have seen a marked decline just from that, let alone with the fast vaccine rollout. The UK stats are more inline with what you expect to see in a lockdown, with cases (the lead indicator) dropping by a quarter every week. It's really hard to square the Israeli figures with the vaccine data coming out of there, at least at the macro level.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:48 am

BaconButty wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
About Israel I just see that the current wave is lasting longer and is coming down slower than previous waves.
I also see those reports of noted improvements, but find it difficult to find hard evidence of a marked improvement of the local epidemiologic (infections/deaths) situation compared to other countries that have much lower vaccination rates.
If the vaccine is as good as advertised, Shirley the curves should be dropping like a brick by now?

Except you do actually have numbers and data pointing to the positive impact of the vaccines.


I thought I'd go to the source, fully expecting it to contradict @CaptainHaresh , given the positive headlines I'd seen. Unless google translate is failing me, it didn't.

The percentage of positive tests, for example, is pretty much at the same level as in mid December. The number of new infections has come down, but if you notice, they're doing less tests than earlier, so that's not so positive. And they've had a lockdown in between - I would have expected that to have seen a marked decline just from that, let alone with the fast vaccine rollout. The UK stats are more inline with what you expect to see in a lockdown, with cases (the lead indicator) dropping by a quarter every week. It's really hard to square the Israeli figures with the vaccine data coming out of there, at least at the macro level.

It is still too early to see what you are looking for. They just went to 40% first dose. By the planned opening 60%.

97% of dying are unvaccinated:
https://www.jpost.com/health-science/97 ... ahu-658367

Vaccines really aren't expected to be effective until 3 weeks after the second dose. If you look at the video in my prior post, Israel was seeing results a week ago in age 60+, the vaccinated group.

They are just seeing the first results as it was over 60 vaccinated. Even with huge Vaccine avoidance, their hospitalizations of 60+ are down 30% vs. younger up 15%

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics ... r-BB1dznRd

The infection rate of the fully vaccinated is really low:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... t-pandemic

The issue is getting to fully vacinated. That takes six weeks (first shot, second shot, and then 3 weeks to build immunity, some evidence 1 week after 2nd shot).

So give Israel time. They only ramped up innoculations December 28th. You won't have a majority vaccinated until a week from now. So lets have this discussion in 7 weeks.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:14 am

lightsaber wrote:
It is still too early to see what you are looking for. They just went to 40% first dose. By the planned opening 60%.

97% of dying are unvaccinated:
https://www.jpost.com/health-science/97 ... ahu-658367

Vaccines really aren't expected to be effective until 3 weeks after the second dose. If you look at the video in my prior post, Israel was seeing results a week ago in age 60+, the vaccinated group.

They are just seeing the first results as it was over 60 vaccinated. Even with huge Vaccine avoidance, their hospitalizations of 60+ are down 30% vs. younger up 15%

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics ... r-BB1dznRd

The infection rate of the fully vaccinated is really low:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... t-pandemic

The issue is getting to fully vacinated. That takes six weeks (first shot, second shot, and then 3 weeks to build immunity, some evidence 1 week after 2nd shot).

So give Israel time. They only ramped up innoculations December 28th. You won't have a majority vaccinated until a week from now. So lets have this discussion in 7 weeks.

Lightsaber


I'm sure you're right, but I would point out that Pfizer efficacy ramps up pretty quickly after 14 days, starting at virtually nothing and reaching 90% after 21 days according to a study of the same data. That's actually consistent with the Israeli's saying 33% in the 14-18 day period - if it was starting from nearly nothing and rising linearly that would imply 66% give or take at 18 days. Anyway, going back 21 days, just under 2.5m had had their first jab, with three quarters of a million of them having had both. More than 2m now have a decent level of protection, in a population of 9m that's a lot.

So the overall data being flat during a lockdown and a rapid vaccination program just raised an eyebrow, that's all - I had seen all the positive data points you linked and expected different. I was focussing on the positive test data as in the UK that has been the leading indicator, hospitalizations and deaths lagging. The only conclusion seems to be that numbers in the non-vaccinated population have risen significantly, to counterbalance falls in the vaccinated, as the hospitalization data seems to show. But why, in a lockdown? Are the newly vaccinated romping around with gay abandon? Protected themselves but transmitting like crazy? Just curious, not an anti-vaxxer by any means, and not suggesting the Israelis are being dishonest.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:02 am

BaconButty wrote:
The percentage of positive tests, for example, is pretty much at the same level as in mid December.


Apparently, under 16 positivity and hospitalizations went up way high, skewing the numbers, and there is no approved vaccine.

There is a news article out there somewhere.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:42 am

Great news from Israel, but with a time delay:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AA0MS

One week after receiving the second Pfizer dose - the point at which full protection is expected to kick in - 254 out of 416,900 people were infected, according to Maccabi, a leading Israeli healthcare provider.

Comparing this against an unvaccinated group revealed a vaccine efficacy of 91%, Maccabi said.


So one week after the 2nd dose is a month after given the first (give or take).

BaconButty wrote:
So the overall data being flat during a lockdown and a rapid vaccination program just raised an eyebrow, that's all - I had seen all the positive data points you linked and expected different. I was focussing on the positive test data as in the UK that has been the leading indicator, hospitalizations and deaths lagging. The only conclusion seems to be that numbers in the non-vaccinated population have risen significantly, to counterbalance falls in the vaccinated, as the hospitalization data seems to show. But why, in a lockdown? Are the newly vaccinated romping around with gay abandon? Protected themselves but transmitting like crazy? Just curious, not an anti-vaxxer by any means, and not suggesting the Israelis are being dishonest.


The non-vaccinated population seem to be assuming enough are vaccinated to protect them. I would have to post many links, but there is a population celebrating mass weddings and outings. Israel is having to resort to pretty brutal fines to contain the lockdown violations:
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel ... 021/02/04/

I assume it is like California (where I live). The young won't wear a mask here. They are flouting the rules. Part of the thought (here, I cannot speak for Israel) is that since the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, why worry? But I know dozens of 75+ who could not get the vaccine (including my parents). I also personally know dozens of vulnerable people who treat one dose as vaccinated. Oh, one dose, per my prior links, after 3 weeks is pretty good! But it hasn't been 3 weeks.

I analyze a lot of data with time lags that are important. Now I deal with milliseconds or seconds. But it doesn't take much thought to put in a 3 to 7 week time delay between effectiveness after vaccination. We aren't at 7 weeks yet.

Funny thing is, I'm for people having a choice. These vaccines were rushed. I understand the hesitancy. I'll get one as soon as I can and then I'll get another once vaccines are in over-supply (mixing vaccines is an old trick to boost effectiveness if administered a month or more apart). Unless I can get the Pfizer or Moderna (I consider those extremely effective). But as someone in group 1C, healthy, and young enough to not be in a risk group, I'm not thinking I'll get to choose before the summer and I want to protect relatives before then. I believe over half my coworkers will not vaccinate. Rhoo Rhoo...

It takes a group of vaccinated to matter. In firefighters with 75% vaccination rate the case rate dropped 75%. That implies that the unvaccinated have plenty of opportunities to get vaccinated the hard way.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... ation-rate

Last month Clalit, Israel’s largest health service organization, released preliminary data on 200,000 people 60 years or older who were vaccinated, comparing them to 200,000 similar unvaccinated older adults.

The positivity rate dropped 33 percent among those who were vaccinated, 14 days after they received the vaccine. No decline was seen in the unvaccinated.


So I can agree with you, I hoped the curves would turn down quicker. A 33% drop 2 weeks after the first dose isn't very encouraging (I posted a link above that for this 60+ year old group it takes 3 weeks to become effective).

My opinion is based on my own modeling. I saw no meaningful drop in transmissions until 50% of the population was vaccinated (fully vaccinated). Even then, it only saw a great drop in the vaccinated getting infected (I assumed a 10% failure rate in the vaccines because... I'm a cynic). But even doing it random who was assigned as "vaccinated", the vaccinated tended to cluster and there were, best I can describe it, "roads of unvaccinated" where there just was no natural barrier for coast to coast movement of this virus among the unvaccinated. I was shocked how many, in my model with obviously many assumptions, of the unvaccinated received no protection benefit from the vaccinated. I believe this has to do with my assumptions on transmission times and how many social interactions people went to. Think about how many people you chatted with in a way certain to give you Covid19 (if they have it) and now suddenly half the population is most likely an asymptomatic transmitter. That is a recipe for fast transmission.

Note: I also took out mask wearing and lockdowns. I'm ready to party like a governor and I assume every one else is too and will be pretty reckless in their social interactions. I couldn't find the link, but I read that Israeli grandparents were playing in the parks with grandkids again (despite that being against the rules) even if only one jab (this was in the WSJ, which I still get the paper version at home).

I expect we'll see a change in the UAE and Israel in 3 to 7 weeks. If earlier, great! If later, well that just shows more need to be vaccinated.

Now the sad part. While vaccine production is very much increased and the UK and US efforts have produced quite a few vaccines (as well as the Russian, Chinese, and potential Indian vaccine that has yet to publish efficacy data). There were numerous vaccines that failed. Numerous still in development.

I consider it good news that in Florida, Walmart's pharmacies and the ones at Sam's club will start distributing vaccines on Friday (although 25,000 doses among 118 stores seems like a publicity stunt):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/c ... r-BB1dxyJl


Lightsaber
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:01 am

South Africa may sell their stock of AstraZeneca vaccines or exchange for a different vaccine due to ongoing concerns about the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine against the South African variant:

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business- ... ht-variant

JOHANNESBURG — South Africa’s health minister said on Wednesday the government may sell doses of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine it may not need or swap for a different vaccine, as it scrambles to start inoculating its citizens with an alternative U.S. shot next week.

The unusual move comes just days after South Africa paused the rollout of the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University following a small clinical trial that showed it offered minimal protection against mild to moderate illness from the 501Y.V2 variant dominant in the country.


The other vaccine they are interested in is the Johnston & Johnston vaccine, which they intend on using as part of an implementation study with researchers.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:04 pm

Good news that Vaccines seem to be reducing infection rates, bad news is it is only very local:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/busines ... r-BB1dAuas


Reaching at least 70% of the population via vaccination (and/or natural infection) is needed for herd immunity for COVID, according to initial modelling by University of Chicago researchers in May last year.


My modeling shows a sharp drop with increasing Vaccination rate, but only above 50% vaccinated. I don't pretend my model would withstand peer review. However, it is vaccines do little and then suddenly the infection rate turn over as it takes vaccinated people to protect other vaccinated people too.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Good news that Vaccines seem to be reducing infection rates, bad news is it is only very local:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/busines ... r-BB1dAuas


Reaching at least 70% of the population via vaccination (and/or natural infection) is needed for herd immunity for COVID, according to initial modelling by University of Chicago researchers in May last year.


My modeling shows a sharp drop with Vaccination rate. I don't pretend my model would withstand peer review. However, it is vaccines do little and then suddenly the infection rate turn over as it takes vaccinated people to protect other vaccinated people too.


If you are willing to share your model, maybe someone can help you improving it?
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Great news from Israel, but with a time delay:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AA0MS

One week after receiving the second Pfizer dose - the point at which full protection is expected to kick in - 254 out of 416,900 people were infected, according to Maccabi, a leading Israeli healthcare provider.

Comparing this against an unvaccinated group revealed a vaccine efficacy of 91%, Maccabi said.


So one week after the 2nd dose is a month after given the first (give or take).

BaconButty wrote:
So the overall data being flat during a lockdown and a rapid vaccination program just raised an eyebrow, that's all - I had seen all the positive data points you linked and expected different. I was focussing on the positive test data as in the UK that has been the leading indicator, hospitalizations and deaths lagging. The only conclusion seems to be that numbers in the non-vaccinated population have risen significantly, to counterbalance falls in the vaccinated, as the hospitalization data seems to show. But why, in a lockdown? Are the newly vaccinated romping around with gay abandon? Protected themselves but transmitting like crazy? Just curious, not an anti-vaxxer by any means, and not suggesting the Israelis are being dishonest.


The non-vaccinated population seem to be assuming enough are vaccinated to protect them. I would have to post many links, but there is a population celebrating mass weddings and outings. Israel is having to resort to pretty brutal fines to contain the lockdown violations:
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/israel ... 021/02/04/

I assume it is like California (where I live). The young won't wear a mask here. They are flouting the rules. Part of the thought (here, I cannot speak for Israel) is that since the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, why worry? But I know dozens of 75+ who could not get the vaccine (including my parents). I also personally know dozens of vulnerable people who treat one dose as vaccinated. Oh, one dose, per my prior links, after 3 weeks is pretty good! But it hasn't been 3 weeks.

I analyze a lot of data with time lags that are important. Now I deal with milliseconds or seconds. But it doesn't take much thought to put in a 3 to 7 week time delay between effectiveness after vaccination. We aren't at 7 weeks yet.

Funny thing is, I'm for people having a choice. These vaccines were rushed. I understand the hesitancy. I'll get one as soon as I can and then I'll get another once vaccines are in over-supply (mixing vaccines is an old trick to boost effectiveness if administered a month or more apart). Unless I can get the Pfizer or Moderna (I consider those extremely effective). But as someone in group 1C, healthy, and young enough to not be in a risk group, I'm not thinking I'll get to choose before the summer and I want to protect relatives before then. I believe over half my coworkers will not vaccinate. Rhoo Rhoo...

It takes a group of vaccinated to matter. In firefighters with 75% vaccination rate the case rate dropped 75%. That implies that the unvaccinated have plenty of opportunities to get vaccinated the hard way.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... ation-rate

Last month Clalit, Israel’s largest health service organization, released preliminary data on 200,000 people 60 years or older who were vaccinated, comparing them to 200,000 similar unvaccinated older adults.

The positivity rate dropped 33 percent among those who were vaccinated, 14 days after they received the vaccine. No decline was seen in the unvaccinated.


So I can agree with you, I hoped the curves would turn down quicker. A 33% drop 2 weeks after the first dose isn't very encouraging (I posted a link above that for this 60+ year old group it takes 3 weeks to become effective).

My opinion is based on my own modeling. I saw no meaningful drop in transmissions until 50% of the population was vaccinated (fully vaccinated). Even then, it only saw a great drop in the vaccinated getting infected (I assumed a 10% failure rate in the vaccines because... I'm a cynic). But even doing it random who was assigned as "vaccinated", the vaccinated tended to cluster and there were, best I can describe it, "roads of unvaccinated" where there just was no natural barrier for coast to coast movement of this virus among the unvaccinated. I was shocked how many, in my model with obviously many assumptions, of the unvaccinated received no protection benefit from the vaccinated. I believe this has to do with my assumptions on transmission times and how many social interactions people went to. Think about how many people you chatted with in a way certain to give you Covid19 (if they have it) and now suddenly half the population is most likely an asymptomatic transmitter. That is a recipe for fast transmission.

Note: I also took out mask wearing and lockdowns. I'm ready to party like a governor and I assume every one else is too and will be pretty reckless in their social interactions. I couldn't find the link, but I read that Israeli grandparents were playing in the parks with grandkids again (despite that being against the rules) even if only one jab (this was in the WSJ, which I still get the paper version at home).

I expect we'll see a change in the UAE and Israel in 3 to 7 weeks. If earlier, great! If later, well that just shows more need to be vaccinated.

Now the sad part. While vaccine production is very much increased and the UK and US efforts have produced quite a few vaccines (as well as the Russian, Chinese, and potential Indian vaccine that has yet to publish efficacy data). There were numerous vaccines that failed. Numerous still in development.

I consider it good news that in Florida, Walmart's pharmacies and the ones at Sam's club will start distributing vaccines on Friday (although 25,000 doses among 118 stores seems like a publicity stunt):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/c ... r-BB1dxyJl


Lightsaber


Can you explain the article that you are quoting?
There are lots of numbers there but none of them explain the conclusion of 90-95% efficicacy at the end of the article.
How does
among the first fully-vaccinated group there was a 53% reduction in new cases, a 39% decline in hospitalizations and a 31% drop in severe illnesses from mid-January until Feb. 6, said Eran Segal, data scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel.
support the conclusion of 95% efficacy?
Why are they saying efficacy, a term normally used only in controlled trials?
Why are numbers in Israel still worse today in comparison to a similar-sized country like Holland that had a much worse winter and has very low vaccination rates?
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:52 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Good news that Vaccines seem to be reducing infection rates, bad news is it is only very local:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/busines ... r-BB1dAuas


Reaching at least 70% of the population via vaccination (and/or natural infection) is needed for herd immunity for COVID, according to initial modelling by University of Chicago researchers in May last year.


My modeling shows a sharp drop with Vaccination rate. I don't pretend my model would withstand peer review. However, it is vaccines do little and then suddenly the infection rate turn over as it takes vaccinated people to protect other vaccinated people too.


If you are willing to share your model, maybe someone can help you improving it?

I do models that withstand a hundred people reviewing. My Covid19 model is a modification of a bacteria propogation model I programed 35 years ago to learn how to do "dynamic video" programming.

I have no desire to have Ph.D's critique my elementary school work modified with calculations for contact time, immunity, and chance of infection.

The original model had bacteria food needs, replication rate (asexual reproduction), and probability to move and an algorithm on what ate what.

It is still just a grid with thousands of colored dots moving about infecting each other if a minimum contact time is met. I hacked constants to get an Ro of 3 and later 3.7.

Obviously, I turned off eating each other and instead of seeing if blue red or yellow wins. Now blue is uninfected. Yellow is asymptomatic spreader, and red is a full blown case.

I added shades of blue based on likelihood of infection (randomly assigned at start). What I noticed is the model inherently clusters in safe zones (darker blue) and light blue (likely to be infected).

Because of all the asymptomatic transmissions and early red transmission, it takes a lot of immune to stop the dots from going red.

Lots of assumptions. What it shows is we need 70%+ Vaccinated.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:55 pm

Recovered Covid patients have been reinfected with new virus strains, WHO says
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/recover ... -says.html

Preliminary reports from South Africa suggest people with prior Covid infection could be reinfected with a new, more infectious variant of the virus, the World Health Organization said.

Findings also show Covid vaccines may be less effective in protecting against new strains of the virus, but vaccination may reduce the severity of infection, WHO said.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:15 pm

Great news from Israel:
No deaths among fully vaccinated in Israel:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/0- ... r-BB1dDcI7

Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine was 93% effective at protecting against COVID-19, a leading Israeli healthcare provider

Caviats: Fully vacinated means: 1 week after 2nd shot. Data from 520,000 people vaccinated.

Notice the "1 week after 2nd dose ". That means a month+ after Vaccination.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:23 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Recovered Covid patients have been reinfected with new virus strains, WHO says
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/recover ... -says.html

Preliminary reports from South Africa suggest people with prior Covid infection could be reinfected with a new, more infectious variant of the virus, the World Health Organization said.

Findings also show Covid vaccines may be less effective in protecting against new strains of the virus, but vaccination may reduce the severity of infection, WHO said.

How bad of cases though? I just witnessed my first co-worker go through a 2nd infection and his 2nd illness was mild enough that pre-Covid19, he would have come into work (minor fever, lost sense of taste and smell). The first 4 days he only knew he had it due to a +ve Covid19 test (he was working shoulder to shoulder with an individual who had a worse case and our policy requires isolation and a test if exposed).

As shown in your link:
“The [vaccine] trials that have been done so far in South Africa as well as in Brazil with different candidates have shown complete protection against severe disease and hospitalization and death. There hasn’t been a single case reported in any of the trials,” she said.

That says get a vaccine to stay out of the hospital, but that some vaccines offer limited protection to others (my opinion).

I'll take a reduced chance of infection and eliminate the risk of a case so bad you are hospitalized. However, I want to protect elderly relatives, so that means getting a better Vaccine later, when available and giving the mRNA to the elderly and elder care workers (again, my opinion).

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:25 pm

lightsaber wrote:

Funny thing is, I'm for people having a choice. These vaccines were rushed. I understand the hesitancy. I'll get one as soon as I can and then I'll get another once vaccines are in over-supply (mixing vaccines is an old trick to boost effectiveness if administered a month or more apart).


A caution: while I suspect that mixing vaccines for COVID-19 will not be an issue, there is precedent for this kind of mixing to lead to lower protection rather than higher. The newer pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13 or "PREVNAR") is less effective in people who have already been given the older Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine (PPSV or "PNEUMOVAX"). The HPV9 ("GARDASIL-9") is less effective for the additional five strains if the patient has already recieved HPV4 ("GARDASIL").

So I would wait on some data.

That said, in the U.S., it appears that most of us will wind up getting mRNA vaccines given the recent announcement by the Biden Administration.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:25 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Great news from Israel:
No deaths among fully vaccinated in Israel:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/0- ... r-BB1dDcI7

Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine was 93% effective at protecting against COVID-19, a leading Israeli healthcare provider

Caviats: Fully vacinated means: 1 week after 2nd shot. Data from 520,000 people vaccinated.

Notice the "1 week after 2nd dose ". That means a month+ after Vaccination.

Lightsaber



Since the elderly received the shots first, where did Maccabi find the large control group that they are referencing?
Does Maccabi make money from each vaccination and if so how much?
Does Maccabi gain something from having itself mentioned in the news?
News media have been quoting Maccabi for the past few weeks, yet this institution has not been providing scientific data, all they seem to have been doing is confirm Pfizer's vaccine efficacy based on internal findings that are very convenient for them.

We need to see more macro data improvements to confirm that the vaccine is helping.
If we see Israel's numbers drop and stay low, the vaccine can be praised provided that Israel keeps reporting numbers in the same way.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 24356
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:56 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Great news from Israel:
No deaths among fully vaccinated in Israel:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/0- ... r-BB1dDcI7

Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine was 93% effective at protecting against COVID-19, a leading Israeli healthcare provider

Caviats: Fully vacinated means: 1 week after 2nd shot. Data from 520,000 people vaccinated.

Notice the "1 week after 2nd dose ". That means a month+ after Vaccination.

Lightsaber



Since the elderly received the shots first, where did Maccabi find the large control group that they are referencing?
Does Maccabi make money from each vaccination and if so how much?
Does Maccabi gain something from having itself mentioned in the news?
News media have been quoting Maccabi for the past few weeks, yet this institution has not been providing scientific data, all they seem to have been doing is confirm Pfizer's vaccine efficacy based on internal findings that are very convenient for them.

We need to see more macro data improvements to confirm that the vaccine is helping.
If we see Israel's numbers drop and stay low, the vaccine can be praised provided that Israel keeps reporting numbers in the same way.

The "control group" is Vaccine avoiders. Maccabi is one of the 4 HMOs. It is like a Kaiser memo. Here in Los Angeles Kaiser is in the press a lot about their vaccine efforts. That is just good PR.

For a HMO, the data comes naturally. So many clients in age groups. On date X to Y, 520,000 patients fully Vaccinated of them just over 500 had symptoms so they came in and tested positive. Or a rate of about a thousand out of every million. They probably had a million other adult customers of which say 17,000 or so became ill after date X and tested positive. That is how you get 93% effective.

This is to let the public know the Pfizer Vaccine works and is saving lives.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 24356
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:09 am

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Funny thing is, I'm for people having a choice. These vaccines were rushed. I understand the hesitancy. I'll get one as soon as I can and then I'll get another once vaccines are in over-supply (mixing vaccines is an old trick to boost effectiveness if administered a month or more apart).


A caution: while I suspect that mixing vaccines for COVID-19 will not be an issue, there is precedent for this kind of mixing to lead to lower protection rather than higher. The newer pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13 or "PREVNAR") is less effective in people who have already been given the older Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine (PPSV or "PNEUMOVAX"). The HPV9 ("GARDASIL-9") is less effective for the additional five strains if the patient has already recieved HPV4 ("GARDASIL").

So I would wait on some data.

That said, in the U.S., it appears that most of us will wind up getting mRNA vaccines given the recent announcement by the Biden Administration.

Thanks for the heads up.

While many more mRNA were purchased, we should see other Vaccine production ramp up faster. Then again, I'm impressed with Pfizer cutting batch times and... not impressed with J&J misses in promised production.

You leave me in a dilemma. If two vaccines might be less effective, do I go for first available (a no brainier if mRNA) or hold off for a mRNA if the J&J is available? Go for early or effective... In my opinion, everyone needs the mRNA levels of protection in the long run. But some protection is better than none...

Then again, I'm fairly sure I had it a year ago and thanks to minor exposure (I was exposed while in partial bunny suit in a clean room, but only a veil over the face, no surgical mask or anything fancy). But as UK research noted, no antibodies for minor cases (T-cells worked early enough). I had a friend recently get it a 2nd time and other than loss of taste and smell for an extended time, nothing to report. He was bedridden time #1, but no tests available in California in January 2020 except in the hospital, but he had all the symptoms and two of the 8 people he infected were hospitalized and tested positive.

So decisions... If the J&J is first available get it or wait for mRNA...

Lightsaber
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 232
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:51 am

I’m amazed some people have managed to get this virus twice yet I know people practically begging to get it on a daily basis given their lifestyle who haven’t gotten it yet
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:17 am

lightsaber wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Great news from Israel:
No deaths among fully vaccinated in Israel:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/0- ... r-BB1dDcI7

Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine was 93% effective at protecting against COVID-19, a leading Israeli healthcare provider

Caviats: Fully vacinated means: 1 week after 2nd shot. Data from 520,000 people vaccinated.

Notice the "1 week after 2nd dose ". That means a month+ after Vaccination.

Lightsaber



Since the elderly received the shots first, where did Maccabi find the large control group that they are referencing?
Does Maccabi make money from each vaccination and if so how much?
Does Maccabi gain something from having itself mentioned in the news?
News media have been quoting Maccabi for the past few weeks, yet this institution has not been providing scientific data, all they seem to have been doing is confirm Pfizer's vaccine efficacy based on internal findings that are very convenient for them.

We need to see more macro data improvements to confirm that the vaccine is helping.
If we see Israel's numbers drop and stay low, the vaccine can be praised provided that Israel keeps reporting numbers in the same way.

The "control group" is Vaccine avoiders. Maccabi is one of the 4 HMOs. It is like a Kaiser memo. Here in Los Angeles Kaiser is in the press a lot about their vaccine efforts. That is just good PR.

For a HMO, the data comes naturally. So many clients in age groups. On date X to Y, 520,000 patients fully Vaccinated of them just over 500 had symptoms so they came in and tested positive. Or a rate of about a thousand out of every million. They probably had a million other adult customers of which say 17,000 or so became ill after date X and tested positive. That is how you get 93% effective.

This is to let the public know the Pfizer Vaccine works and is saving lives.

Lightsaber



It would be relevant if the reporting body was an independent scientific institution as opposed to a PR effort from a vaccine shop that is trying to make cash by spreading fear.


Speaking as Israel grapples with a slowdown in the vaccination campaign, Mizrahi Reuveni urged people to take notice of the new statistics and book slots, warning that those who don’t are likely to get infected.

Dr. Miri Mizrahi Reuveni, Maccabi Healthcare Services (Courtesy)
“Anyone who has not been vaccinated so far, please hurry up and make an appointment as soon as possible,” she said. “Protect yourself from a serious illness and, God forbid, death as well as the possibility that you will infect and endanger others.”


https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-sees- ... -israelis/



The vaccines will be most effective soon after the second injection.
How effective will they be months later?
So far there is no evidence of lasting high level of immunity from COVID-19.
Antibody count reduces significantly after a couple of months, reducing the strength of the initial immune response.
Will the vaccine be 93% effective after 2 months or more towards 50%?

We stand to lose a lot more from the vaccines not working than to gain from them working.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 24356
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 13, 2021 2:23 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
I’m amazed some people have managed to get this virus twice yet I know people practically begging to get it on a daily basis given their lifestyle who haven’t gotten it yet

Some fraction of the population is immune. Some fraction will get such minor symptoms they won't know. I've seen links all over the board in the fraction of the population who can be asymptomatic transmitters:

https://www.verywellhealth.com/asymptom ... 0%EF%BB%BF

I also know people who acted like that and then one day they were down. I had two female friends have it *really* bad. One gave it to her husband who... is more the category for a bad case and he just had the sniffles with a headache and a mild fever not worth discussing. Their kids were snot monsters for a week. I literally watched it spread among neighbors. My home can look into the backyard of over a hundred houses (on a canyon at a nice junction) and I watched them hold a playdate, watched their playdate through a cocktail party, watched people from that cocktail party throw 5 other cocktail parties and surprise, I watched a hundred local people get it. Thankfully, despite some elderly getting it, none died. All children just were cranky snot monsters for a few days to a week. Thankfully only the first woman who had it, who caught it from her sister, had it bad.

Everyone I know who had a mild to moderate first case has had even milder 2nd cases. Most only know they had a second because "I've been exposed, to protect others I should get tested" and multiple PCR tests showed they had it.

I eat dinner with multiple people over age 80. My uncle Tom was sent home to die due to his local hospital being overloaded. Thankfully my cousin rolled up her sleeves and saved him (there is plenty of oxygen and medicine out there thanks to project warp speed). He should have died. Ironically he only caught it as he took a relative who fell to the hospital and caught Covid19 at the hospital...

CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:


Since the elderly received the shots first, where did Maccabi find the large control group that they are referencing?
Does Maccabi make money from each vaccination and if so how much?
Does Maccabi gain something from having itself mentioned in the news?
News media have been quoting Maccabi for the past few weeks, yet this institution has not been providing scientific data, all they seem to have been doing is confirm Pfizer's vaccine efficacy based on internal findings that are very convenient for them.

We need to see more macro data improvements to confirm that the vaccine is helping.
If we see Israel's numbers drop and stay low, the vaccine can be praised provided that Israel keeps reporting numbers in the same way.

The "control group" is Vaccine avoiders. Maccabi is one of the 4 HMOs. It is like a Kaiser memo. Here in Los Angeles Kaiser is in the press a lot about their vaccine efforts. That is just good PR.

For a HMO, the data comes naturally. So many clients in age groups. On date X to Y, 520,000 patients fully Vaccinated of them just over 500 had symptoms so they came in and tested positive. Or a rate of about a thousand out of every million. They probably had a million other adult customers of which say 17,000 or so became ill after date X and tested positive. That is how you get 93% effective.

This is to let the public know the Pfizer Vaccine works and is saving lives.

Lightsaber



It would be relevant if the reporting body was an independent scientific institution as opposed to a PR effort from a vaccine shop that is trying to make cash by spreading fear.


Speaking as Israel grapples with a slowdown in the vaccination campaign, Mizrahi Reuveni urged people to take notice of the new statistics and book slots, warning that those who don’t are likely to get infected.

Dr. Miri Mizrahi Reuveni, Maccabi Healthcare Services (Courtesy)
“Anyone who has not been vaccinated so far, please hurry up and make an appointment as soon as possible,” she said. “Protect yourself from a serious illness and, God forbid, death as well as the possibility that you will infect and endanger others.”


https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-sees- ... -israelis/



The vaccines will be most effective soon after the second injection.
How effective will they be months later?
So far there is no evidence of lasting high level of immunity from COVID-19.
Antibody count reduces significantly after a couple of months, reducing the strength of the initial immune response.
Will the vaccine be 93% effective after 2 months or more towards 50%?

We stand to lose a lot more from the vaccines not working than to gain from them working.

Here is a more detailed source (not-peer reviewed, that takes months as you should know):
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... srael.aspx
he analysis indicates there was reduction of about 28% in the number of cases for those above 60 years by day 13 after the first dose, 43% reduction between days 14 and 21, and more than 80% reduction after the second dose.

...
For people over 60 years, who comprise a major proportion of the severely ill cases, the analysis suggests a strong effect of the vaccine, reducing severe cases by about 60% after the first dose and up to 94% seven days after the second dose.

...
Overall, the analysis suggests a reduction in positive cases of 66-83% in people older than 60 years, 76-85% for those below 60 years, and 87-96% effective in preventing severe cases.


It looks as if the 2nd dose + a week is going to be the benchmark. Perhaps 2nd dose + 2 weeks. As you know, it will take months to determine and by then the case load will thankfully plummet thanks to those responsible enough to get vaccinated.

Don't worry so much about how long the vaccine is good for. We all expect booster shots to be required until they figure this out, which will take years:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ge ... l-n1257317

Once there is a surplus the six week clock starts when I get to party like a governor (I'm guessing in May in the USA we have a surplus of vaccines, so I can party in July and dance again!). It is not for me to worry about those that want to be vaccinated the hard way nor worry about their loved ones they will obviously infect. :devil:

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 22382
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:12 pm

lightsaber wrote:
You leave me in a dilemma.


I'm good at that. :mrgreen:

lightsaber wrote:
If two vaccines might be less effective, do I go for first available (a no brainier if mRNA) or hold off for a mRNA if the J&J is available? Go for early or effective... In my opinion, everyone needs the mRNA levels of protection in the long run. But some protection is better than none...


My suspicion is that because the J&J, Moderna, and Pfizer are all expression-based approaches of the same (or at least very similar) antigen, there will not be an immune-blocking issue at play here. With the pneumonia vaccines, these are polysaccharide antigens and so that raises its own barrel of worms and for the HPV, the different strains of HPV are similar enough that immunity to one could block immunity to the other.

So I would go for early. The one I would not take is AstraZeneca. There are just too many unknowns there and also the efficacy, especially against variants, is questionable at best. I'd also happily take Novavax if that becomes available.

If you get J&J, my prediction is that you could always get a booster later (I'm excited to see those data) or a second dose of one of the mRNA. Moreover, it seems as if the US is purchasing enough of the mRNA vaccines to cover most adults.
 
art
Posts: 4983
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:19 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
After 2 months of vaccinations in Israel, they are stagnating at high infection and death numbers while in a lock-down and the elderly were vaccinated weeks ago. Media and studies are very eager to hail the vaccine for improvements that I don't see.


I expected to see figures from Israel to drop, too. However, the post below largely explains the mystery for me.

flyguy89 wrote:
All reports indicate deaths, hospitalizations, and cases among the fully vaccinated are now substantially down.


If the infection rate in the unvaccinated is rising but the infection rate in the vaccinated is falling, I'm happy that vaccination is having the desired effect.
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:29 pm

lightsaber wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
I’m amazed some people have managed to get this virus twice yet I know people practically begging to get it on a daily basis given their lifestyle who haven’t gotten it yet

Some fraction of the population is immune. Some fraction will get such minor symptoms they won't know. I've seen links all over the board in the fraction of the population who can be asymptomatic transmitters:

https://www.verywellhealth.com/asymptom ... 0%EF%BB%BF

I also know people who acted like that and then one day they were down. I had two female friends have it *really* bad. One gave it to her husband who... is more the category for a bad case and he just had the sniffles with a headache and a mild fever not worth discussing. Their kids were snot monsters for a week. I literally watched it spread among neighbors. My home can look into the backyard of over a hundred houses (on a canyon at a nice junction) and I watched them hold a playdate, watched their playdate through a cocktail party, watched people from that cocktail party throw 5 other cocktail parties and surprise, I watched a hundred local people get it. Thankfully, despite some elderly getting it, none died. All children just were cranky snot monsters for a few days to a week. Thankfully only the first woman who had it, who caught it from her sister, had it bad.

Everyone I know who had a mild to moderate first case has had even milder 2nd cases. Most only know they had a second because "I've been exposed, to protect others I should get tested" and multiple PCR tests showed they had it.

I eat dinner with multiple people over age 80. My uncle Tom was sent home to die due to his local hospital being overloaded. Thankfully my cousin rolled up her sleeves and saved him (there is plenty of oxygen and medicine out there thanks to project warp speed). He should have died. Ironically he only caught it as he took a relative who fell to the hospital and caught Covid19 at the hospital...

CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The "control group" is Vaccine avoiders. Maccabi is one of the 4 HMOs. It is like a Kaiser memo. Here in Los Angeles Kaiser is in the press a lot about their vaccine efforts. That is just good PR.

For a HMO, the data comes naturally. So many clients in age groups. On date X to Y, 520,000 patients fully Vaccinated of them just over 500 had symptoms so they came in and tested positive. Or a rate of about a thousand out of every million. They probably had a million other adult customers of which say 17,000 or so became ill after date X and tested positive. That is how you get 93% effective.

This is to let the public know the Pfizer Vaccine works and is saving lives.

Lightsaber



It would be relevant if the reporting body was an independent scientific institution as opposed to a PR effort from a vaccine shop that is trying to make cash by spreading fear.


Speaking as Israel grapples with a slowdown in the vaccination campaign, Mizrahi Reuveni urged people to take notice of the new statistics and book slots, warning that those who don’t are likely to get infected.

Dr. Miri Mizrahi Reuveni, Maccabi Healthcare Services (Courtesy)
“Anyone who has not been vaccinated so far, please hurry up and make an appointment as soon as possible,” she said. “Protect yourself from a serious illness and, God forbid, death as well as the possibility that you will infect and endanger others.”


https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-sees- ... -israelis/



The vaccines will be most effective soon after the second injection.
How effective will they be months later?
So far there is no evidence of lasting high level of immunity from COVID-19.
Antibody count reduces significantly after a couple of months, reducing the strength of the initial immune response.
Will the vaccine be 93% effective after 2 months or more towards 50%?

We stand to lose a lot more from the vaccines not working than to gain from them working.

Here is a more detailed source (not-peer reviewed, that takes months as you should know):
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... srael.aspx
he analysis indicates there was reduction of about 28% in the number of cases for those above 60 years by day 13 after the first dose, 43% reduction between days 14 and 21, and more than 80% reduction after the second dose.

...
For people over 60 years, who comprise a major proportion of the severely ill cases, the analysis suggests a strong effect of the vaccine, reducing severe cases by about 60% after the first dose and up to 94% seven days after the second dose.

...
Overall, the analysis suggests a reduction in positive cases of 66-83% in people older than 60 years, 76-85% for those below 60 years, and 87-96% effective in preventing severe cases.


It looks as if the 2nd dose + a week is going to be the benchmark. Perhaps 2nd dose + 2 weeks. As you know, it will take months to determine and by then the case load will thankfully plummet thanks to those responsible enough to get vaccinated.

Don't worry so much about how long the vaccine is good for. We all expect booster shots to be required until they figure this out, which will take years:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ge ... l-n1257317

Once there is a surplus the six week clock starts when I get to party like a governor (I'm guessing in May in the USA we have a surplus of vaccines, so I can party in July and dance again!). It is not for me to worry about those that want to be vaccinated the hard way nor worry about their loved ones they will obviously infect. :devil:

Lightsaber



I wish that I could share your optimism.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 24356
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:51 pm

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
You leave me in a dilemma.


I'm good at that. :mrgreen:

lightsaber wrote:
If two vaccines might be less effective, do I go for first available (a no brainier if mRNA) or hold off for a mRNA if the J&J is available? Go for early or effective... In my opinion, everyone needs the mRNA levels of protection in the long run. But some protection is better than none...


My suspicion is that because the J&J, Moderna, and Pfizer are all expression-based approaches of the same (or at least very similar) antigen, there will not be an immune-blocking issue at play here. With the pneumonia vaccines, these are polysaccharide antigens and so that raises its own barrel of worms and for the HPV, the different strains of HPV are similar enough that immunity to one could block immunity to the other.

So I would go for early. The one I would not take is AstraZeneca. There are just too many unknowns there and also the efficacy, especially against variants, is questionable at best. I'd also happily take Novavax if that becomes available.

If you get J&J, my prediction is that you could always get a booster later (I'm excited to see those data) or a second dose of one of the mRNA. Moreover, it seems as if the US is purchasing enough of the mRNA vaccines to cover most adults.

Thanks for the heads up. I was thinking J&J and then trying for a second dose of mRNA. While eventually everyone should be able to get mRNA, it is going to be a difference of quite a few months between when I think one is available and the other. Pfizer is doing great lowering the time to produce and increasing the number of factories (plants? whatever they're officially called) producing their vaccine, but it is still a rate. Theoretically, the J&J should be more producible and able to work in more primitive factories.

Partially my concern is California has politicized vaccine distribution. My area is now a desert for the vaccine to prioritize, in my opinion, those who the governor favors (good thing this is non-Av, but I'm going off topic). So...
1. I can travel to Colorado and get the Moderna, but with the current quarantine rules, I would get in trouble from a child custody perspective. Grrr...
2. I get what we can here.

The press is great on what is being bought, but I'm looking at the fundamentals. How the factories are being setup (e.g., reconfiguring Pfizer Belgium to make more at a cost of short term production), new factories coming online:
Pfiser: Kalamazo Michigan, Chesterfield Missouri, and Andover Massachussetts, a link with some insight in how they are improving production, but US biased (mostly noting production is emulating a non-efficient laboratory process instead of a production process):
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 423251001/
Link on EU production down, but now back up to speed with less disruption than broadcast:
https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/1 ... ium-doses/

I am personally of the opinion that the Pfizer vaccine will have the most data, which is a good thing. (Big company with big contracts, in particular the Israeli contract that includes loads of data).

So I will debate... until I actually have a choice. :biggrin:

Lightsaber
 
marcelh
Posts: 2124
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:53 am

lightsaber wrote:
Now to positive news, there are a number of vaccines, in order I can best remember them being approved:
Pfizer
Moderna
Oxford-AstraZeneca
Sputnik V
Sinofarm
Johnson & Johnson
Bharat Covaxin (technically, hasn't proven effecacy, or I couldn't find a source).

So supply should increase. There are other possible candidates too. But with 7 in production, supply will ramp up.

Pfizer is targeting 2 billion doses in 2021:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pfiz ... SKBN2A21EO

Moderna building to 1 billion doses in 2021:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.finanzen ... 1030004884

The Oxford-Astrazeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Sinofarm, and Covaxin will be the volume Vaccines. They will make the difference.

Lightsaber

Don’t get too exited. We have seen overpromising and underdelivering before.....

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