Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:53 pm

Really good news, the over 60 group in Israel now has a lower hospitalization rate (for the first time) than the under 60:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medica ... r-BB1dCsai

He added: "The 60 y/o and older were first to vaccinate and 91% of them have been infected or vaccinated to date."
I personally would like to know the fraction vaccinated fully vs. vaccinated the hard way.

In early March, cafes, restaurants and hotels will be reopened if at least four million Israelis have received their second dose of the vaccine, among other criteria.
Now that is good news. Although 4 million out of ~ 9 million seems a bit low of a criteria.

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:42 pm

marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Now to positive news, there are a number of vaccines, in order I can best remember them being approved:
Pfizer
Moderna
Oxford-AstraZeneca
Sputnik V
Sinofarm
Johnson & Johnson
Bharat Covaxin (technically, hasn't proven effecacy, or I couldn't find a source).

So supply should increase. There are other possible candidates too. But with 7 in production, supply will ramp up.

Pfizer is targeting 2 billion doses in 2021:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pfiz ... SKBN2A21EO

Moderna building to 1 billion doses in 2021:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.finanzen ... 1030004884

The Oxford-Astrazeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Sinofarm, and Covaxin will be the volume Vaccines. They will make the difference.

Lightsaber

Don’t get too exited. We have seen overpromising and underdelivering before.....

With so many in production, any one can fail.
Pfizer and Moderna will be relatively rare, best case scenario is 19% of the global population is vaccinated in 2021. (Links quoted above)
The recent improvements have Pfizer promising just the USA 200 million doses by end of May, thanks to production improvements, pulled in from end of July:
https://bgr.com/2021/02/02/covid-vaccin ... 0-million/


The others will be the volume vaccines. They are the ones the massive vaccine plants in India can produce.

Plus the J&J system. Behind schedule, but a plan to catch up by April. Plan is 900 million doses and working on signing more factories:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/johns ... 2021-01-13
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jj-can- ... -well.html

Plus the Brazil Factories (Sputnik V started). I found it is to be built out to a capacity of 120 million doses (I assume per year), but no ramp rate, so something much less:
https://112.international/society/brazi ... 58122.html
https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/sau ... in-america

Plus the South Korean Factories, with
discussion to quickly build a Moderna factory, as well as 150 million doses of Sputnik V:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/5 ... ne-factory
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN27T0HF

Plus India factories will ramp up by end of year t between 120 and 200 million doses per month (1.5 billion to 2.5 billion per year)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-22/ ... e/13081000

But the UK and EU factories will be major players (already discussed extensively in this thread for their great contribution). Much Pfizer, Swiss part of Moderna chain (already counted), but the Oxford-AstraZenica will help minimize hospital visits and will get a booster by Autumn:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... utumn.html

Heck, Serbia is ramping up Sputnik V vaccine:
https://news.yahoo.com/serbia-could-man ... 29547.html

UAE to manufacture Sinopharm:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-national

For example, the Phillipines is scheduled to receive 5.6 million doses of vaccine just in 1Q2021, buying 148 million doses to vaccinate 50 million:
https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/202 ... ca-ph.html

150 million doses of Oxford-AstraZenica expected 1Q2021, mostly thanks to Indian plants ramping up:
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indias- ... ef-2359739

Russia has their factories (I didn't find good numbers on capacity).

Before we were held by the maximum production capability of a handful of factories. Now, if you want to point out the capacity is loaded towards the later half of the year, fine. That is the unfortunate fact. If you read the links already supplied, it takes 110 days to brew up Pfizer after a factory is going (I'd guess it takes 120 days just to get a factory converted and started up). While that is decreasing, production has a rate and since 7.8 billion people need vaccines, that will take time.

But for the USA, it looks like people will be able to get their first dose in May, 2nd in June, so we can have a "new normal" air travel season this summer. :hyper: The global medical personnel (nurses, doctors, and dentists too) should all be vaccinated by then too. So in order, Israel, UAE, UK, and USA should be open by then. Every production system goes through a ramp up then the knee in the curve. We're approaching the knee (not there yet, we are 4 to six months away from great volume production of vaccines). Israel gets to open up in March, the UAE probably in May, the USA by July, the EU probably a few months later, and so on.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


I do feel for those in countries that will lag, but it is important to open up economies one by one. Luckily, there will be enough vaccine production by late summer to change the game.
So I will get excited. I work in R&D. I work for the future.


Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:17 pm

Another HMO in Israel reporting great results, but issues with those not fully Vaccinated:
Hospitalisations and serious illness were still rising in younger groups who began vaccinations weeks later.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wel ... r-BB1dG4Vc

Not enough data, but they imply 2 weeks after 2nd dose is even better data. Please read the article for information on method of data analysis.

Thankfully, my parents *finally* have a vaccine appointment: Wednesday of this week.

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
art
Posts: 4152
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:52 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Another HMO in Israel reporting great results, but issues with those not fully Vaccinated:
Hospitalisations and serious illness were still rising in younger groups who began vaccinations weeks later.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wel ... r-BB1dG4Vc

Not enough data, but they imply 2 weeks after 2nd dose is even better data. Please read the article for information on method of data analysis.

Thankfully, my parents *finally* have a vaccine appointment: Wednesday of this week.

Lightsaber


Pleased to hear your parents will be getting protected.

In the UK around 6%-7& of the population have tested positive. Guessing that there is at least 1 untested person who has/has had the vrus for each person who has tested positive, that would mean 12%-14% of the population has developed some immunity. Here in England we have given a first vaccine dose to about 20% of the population (targeting those most likely to be 'troublemakers' by requiring acute treatment). Should we perhaps now check that we are not vaccinationg people who have been infected and have recovered to generate the best short term benefit from our vaccination programme? Or is it better to ignore whether people have already some immunity through infection and recovery, given the cost and time involved in checking everyone for antibodies?

This may sound like a stupid enquiry but could be of validity where there is insufficient vaccine available to vaccinate everyone.
 
art
Posts: 4152
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:56 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Another HMO in Israel reporting great results, but issues with those not fully Vaccinated:
Hospitalisations and serious illness were still rising in younger groups who began vaccinations weeks later.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wel ... r-BB1dG4Vc

Not enough data, but they imply 2 weeks after 2nd dose is even better data. Please read the article for information on method of data analysis.

Thankfully, my parents *finally* have a vaccine appointment: Wednesday of this week.

Lightsaber


Pleased to hear your parents will be getting protected.

In the UK around 6%-7& of the population have tested positive. Guessing that there is at least 1 untested person who has/has had the vrus for each person who has tested positive, that would mean 12%-14% of the population has developed some immunity. Here in England we have given a first vaccine dose to about 20% of the population (targeting those most likely to be 'troublemakers' by requiring acute treatment). Should we perhaps now check that we are not vaccinating people who have been infected and have recovered to generate the best short term benefit from our vaccination programme? Or is it better to ignore whether people have already some immunity through infection and recovery, given the cost and time involved in checking everyone for antibodies?

This may sound like a stupid enquiry but could be of validity where there is insufficient vaccine available to vaccinate everyone.
Last edited by art on Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Another HMO in Israel reporting great results, but issues with those not fully Vaccinated:
Hospitalisations and serious illness were still rising in younger groups who began vaccinations weeks later.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wel ... r-BB1dG4Vc

Not enough data, but they imply 2 weeks after 2nd dose is even better data. Please read the article for information on method of data analysis.

Thankfully, my parents *finally* have a vaccine appointment: Wednesday of this week.

Lightsaber



Would you mind sharing the age group of your parents, their general health condition and eventual side effects after the 2nd shot?
Are you not concerned by the many reports of post-vaccination deaths?

What do you make of this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9agUz5cQCk
 
art
Posts: 4152
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:27 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:


Someone fainted. The person concerned faints often. She fainted after being vaccinated (as she often does, whether or not she has just been vaccinated).

What do you make of it?
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:04 am

Here are two cases of people getting Covid-19, recovering, then dying after being vaccinated for Covid.

https://www.magnoliastatelive.com/2021/ ... d-vaccine/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB1d3cZl

This man may also be such a case, he worked Covid-19 wards and died hours after being vaccinated.

https://abc7.com/tim-zook-covid-19-vacc ... /10105246/


Could it be that the vaccine has an adverse, potentially fatal effect on people who recovered from a Covid-19 infection?
Could it be that the vaccine solicits an immune response on an already immune body and that that causes a fatal cascade of issues?



Different subject, can you spot something wrong with the below article excerpt?

The CDC and FDA received 1,170 reports of death among individuals in the U.S. who received a Covid vaccine — 0.003% of vaccinated people — between Dec. 14, 2020, and Feb. 7, 2021.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/cdc-to- ... -dose.html


The annualized mortality rate in the US is about 0.9%.
The annualized mortality rate of vaccinated people mentioned in the above article is 0.020%, about 45 times less than the average mortality rate.
Do vaccinated people stop dying altogether, not only from Covid-19?
Or is this media trying to fool its audience?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:13 am

CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Another HMO in Israel reporting great results, but issues with those not fully Vaccinated:
Hospitalisations and serious illness were still rising in younger groups who began vaccinations weeks later.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wel ... r-BB1dG4Vc

Not enough data, but they imply 2 weeks after 2nd dose is even better data. Please read the article for information on method of data analysis.

Thankfully, my parents *finally* have a vaccine appointment: Wednesday of this week.

Lightsaber



Would you mind sharing the age group of your parents, their general health condition and eventual side effects after the 2nd shot?
Are you not concerned by the many reports of post-vaccination deaths?

What do you make of this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9agUz5cQCk

I've yet to see a post vaccination death that wasn't traced to getting Covid19 within 4 days of vaccination, or an existing condition that doomed the person anyway. Aren't you worried about a heart attack from Covid19? Aren't you worried about giving the disease to someone else (it is really bad with influenza). Heck, the side effects last a day. My sister was in charge of monitoring 692 people who were vaccinated and she had the worst reaction (so I expect it too and would expect it of my parents). But 2 hours of chills (bad, like a bad flu) and fatigue just shows the vaccine kicked in.

Your link had someone with a prior medical fainting condition. That has nothing to do with Covid19. That would be like me worrying about the six people per day who die of alcohol poisoning. :no:
https://www.alcohol.org/statistics-info ... g%20deaths.


Do you mind me asking why you seem to be focusing on unique events on vaccines given to 33 million in USA, 13 million in UK, 3 million in Israel, and I think about 4 million others globally (minimum)? Now 40% are vaccine hesitant (give or take), why do you want to be in the tail end of those who might breed the disease?
https://time.com/5925467/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy/

I already see most people who are twice vaccinated refusing to take the prior precautions. Like it or not, like in Israel, people are going to go out and have fun once they perceive the most at risk are vaccinated enough and they will do that too early. That spikes the cases and increases the hospitalization. Six weeks after the vaccine is readily available, I'm going to party like a governor; I'll wait as a courtesy to others as I fully realize that six week clock starts long after I'll have the vaccine as well as my parents (I estimate in July everyone who wanted to be safe had the chance, the at risk I care about by mid-April fully vaccinated and I should be able to start the vaccine in late April or Early May, worse case, so I'll be fully vaccinated by start of June most likely).


The vaccine adverse are mooching off herd immunity. Well guess what, I don't see a path to herd immunity with Covid19 in 2021 as we do not yet have a children't vaccine (but only a tiny number, mostly super-obese or with cancer/kidney/heart issues, need to worry).

Good luck, people are done with lock down and are only being good to protect the vulnerable.
This summer is going to be one hell of a party and the un-vaccinated get the full experience.

Party on,
Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 22208
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:37 am

lightsaber wrote:
[
Partially my concern is California has politicized vaccine distribution. My area is now a desert for the vaccine to prioritize, in my opinion, those who the governor favors (good thing this is non-Av, but I'm going off topic).


SF is out of vaccine. I think there's just a supply crunch, period. I'm no huge fan of Newsom's, and he has managed to screw up this state's COVID-19 response in more than one way (why didn't we have contact-tracing apps until December 2020?), but he can't conjure more vaccine out of thin air.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:37 am

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
[
Partially my concern is California has politicized vaccine distribution. My area is now a desert for the vaccine to prioritize, in my opinion, those who the governor favors (good thing this is non-Av, but I'm going off topic).


SF is out of vaccine. I think there's just a supply crunch, period. I'm no huge fan of Newsom's, and he has managed to screw up this state's COVID-19 response in more than one way (why didn't we have contact-tracing apps until December 2020?), but he can't conjure more vaccine out of thin air.

But he has biased pushing vaccines away from need to political allies: e.g., Longshoremen
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AC22L

or private schools:
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/covid- ... -says/amp/

Good news is all my over age 75 neighbors and relatives suddenly were able to get appointments next week. However, they are driving all over Los Angeles to make it happen: Carson, Dodger Stadium, USC None local to the South bay. I feel for those where driving would be an issue or the time.

Partially it is because California's appointment system is 3rd rate.

No need to conjure up vaccine when distribution is inefficient (see bottom of this post) and... when supply abruptly dries up because it was shifted out if one area to a preferred area... I will call a spade a spade. e.g., 1st dose appointments cancelled in mass because the governor decreed last week to move vaccine (no 2nd doses were pulled, to my knowledge).

This is why I asked about mixing vaccines. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was submitted 10 days ago. It seems to take about 3 weeks for approval. While production has been slow, more is good. I think that will be available soon in volume.

Good news is the #6 plant (that I know of) for Pfizer went online:
https://www.dw.com/en/biontech-starts-v ... a-56524305

The plant should add 250 million doses 1H2021. Although, I believe already allocated to the EU. However, expect deliveries at the back end (that is just the nature of ramping up production).


Hey, we finally have a California tracking site!
https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... tribution/

Not as comprehensive as Florida's:
httpss://floridahealthcovid19.gov/

If you look at the latimes link, California holds back more doses than many states (e.g., Utah, Texas, Colorado, Michigan, Louisiana, with New Mexico and West Virginia being the extremes in efficiency). 72.2% distributed vs. 97.7% We're running out because we hold back 25.5% and miss-allocate. If California was as efficient, we would have vaccinated 35% more doses.

So no need to conjure. Find out how New Mexico and West Virginia run the system and emulate. Then we can point the finger at supply, not yet. The problem is the state logistical management.

Other states have a nice roadmap on distribution. The UK has a very easy to understand plan. We need that (see tables with priority and population in each group).
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56062976

The next stages of distribution are being mucked with politically, it will just frustrate people. Since time saves lives, California needs to get out doses. Ideally with a simple age, medical condition, and job priority queue like that British example would be best.

Lightsaber

PS, when is Novavax coming out in US? I found a better link. Really good on strains in UK, ok against the South African strain (60%), except in HIV positive people (just under 50%), that makes sense: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-nov ... -02-13?amp
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Another HMO in Israel reporting great results, but issues with those not fully Vaccinated:
Hospitalisations and serious illness were still rising in younger groups who began vaccinations weeks later.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wel ... r-BB1dG4Vc

Not enough data, but they imply 2 weeks after 2nd dose is even better data. Please read the article for information on method of data analysis.

Thankfully, my parents *finally* have a vaccine appointment: Wednesday of this week.

Lightsaber



Would you mind sharing the age group of your parents, their general health condition and eventual side effects after the 2nd shot?
Are you not concerned by the many reports of post-vaccination deaths?

What do you make of this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9agUz5cQCk

I've yet to see a post vaccination death that wasn't traced to getting Covid19 within 4 days of vaccination, or an existing condition that doomed the person anyway. Aren't you worried about a heart attack from Covid19? Aren't you worried about giving the disease to someone else (it is really bad with influenza). Heck, the side effects last a day. My sister was in charge of monitoring 692 people who were vaccinated and she had the worst reaction (so I expect it too and would expect it of my parents). But 2 hours of chills (bad, like a bad flu) and fatigue just shows the vaccine kicked in.

Your link had someone with a prior medical fainting condition. That has nothing to do with Covid19. That would be like me worrying about the six people per day who die of alcohol poisoning. :no:
https://www.alcohol.org/statistics-info ... g%20deaths.


Do you mind me asking why you seem to be focusing on unique events on vaccines given to 33 million in USA, 13 million in UK, 3 million in Israel, and I think about 4 million others globally (minimum)? Now 40% are vaccine hesitant (give or take), why do you want to be in the tail end of those who might breed the disease?
https://time.com/5925467/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy/

I already see most people who are twice vaccinated refusing to take the prior precautions. Like it or not, like in Israel, people are going to go out and have fun once they perceive the most at risk are vaccinated enough and they will do that too early. That spikes the cases and increases the hospitalization. Six weeks after the vaccine is readily available, I'm going to party like a governor; I'll wait as a courtesy to others as I fully realize that six week clock starts long after I'll have the vaccine as well as my parents (I estimate in July everyone who wanted to be safe had the chance, the at risk I care about by mid-April fully vaccinated and I should be able to start the vaccine in late April or Early May, worse case, so I'll be fully vaccinated by start of June most likely).


The vaccine adverse are mooching off herd immunity. Well guess what, I don't see a path to herd immunity with Covid19 in 2021 as we do not yet have a children't vaccine (but only a tiny number, mostly super-obese or with cancer/kidney/heart issues, need to worry).

Good luck, people are done with lock down and are only being good to protect the vulnerable.
This summer is going to be one hell of a party and the un-vaccinated get the full experience.

Party on,
Lightsaber


This opens up to more questions.
COVID-19 is killing the old and frail.
Isn’t the whole point of the vaccines to protect the old and frail?
Yet when an old and frail person dies soon after getting the vaccine, they are reported as someone who was written-off before taking the vaccine.
If the vaccines don’t help the old and frail, but instead could pose an additional threat to them, who are they helping?

Can you imagine the carnage this fall if the vaccines or vaccination strategies perform even slightly worse than expected?

Considering how we’ve had unfounded hopes crushed time after time with Covid-19 , isn’t it prudent to take a more conservative stance and actually wait for extensive and unbiased evidence of lasting immunity before concluding that we can go all-in on loosening the brakes?

Is the stance to vaccinate quickly and without regard for results or safety not a panic reaction?

In aviation we call this get-home-itis syndrome.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5813
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:37 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
This opens up to more questions.
COVID-19 is killing the old and frail.
Isn’t the whole point of the vaccines to protect the old and frail?
Yet when an old and frail person dies soon after getting the vaccine, they are reported as someone who was written-off before taking the vaccine.
If the vaccines don’t help the old and frail, but instead could pose an additional threat to them, who are they helping?


The old and the frail die of other things too. In fact, by the very nature of their various ailment, they unfortunately are less likely to be saved by a vaccine, as good as it may be. A vaccine is not a miracle cure, nor is it meant to be one. Vaccines will still decrease the mortality rate through all ages.

Can you imagine the carnage this fall if the vaccines or vaccination strategies perform even slightly worse than expected?


Yes, we can. A hypothetically ineffective vaccine would be like having no vaccine at all, which is exactly what we've been living for the past year or so. So basically, we'd be no worse nor better than we are today, meaning there is nothing to lose.
The thing is, vaccines will be effective and will dramatically decrease the mortality rate. The figures have told us so already.

Considering how we’ve had unfounded hopes crushed time after time with Covid-19 , isn’t it prudent to take a more conservative stance and actually wait for extensive and unbiased evidence of lasting immunity before concluding that we can go all-in on loosening the brakes?


What unfounded hopes? Hydroxychloroquine? Bleach injections? The guys with no medical background whatsoever telling us it'll be over in a month or two?
And what do we have to gain by slowing vaccinations which are proven to help?

Is the stance to vaccinate quickly and without regard for results or safety not a panic reaction?

In aviation we call this get-home-itis syndrome.


You are conflating vaccine effectiveness and safety.
Vaccines are safe. They are not killing people. At worst they fail to protect them. An elderly person dying of Covid 4 days after being vaccinated is not being killed by the vaccine, nor is he/she being failed by it. It just didn't have time to do its job.

There is no point in delaying vaccination unless you can prove that vaccines are somehow dangerous and in fact worse than covid itself.
Which you can't. Because they aren't.

This would be like delaying using a fire extinguisher because you're not sure it'll be very effective and saying that we should let the fire rage until we're certain that we get a proven extinguisher (somehow). A logical fallacy.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:01 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:


Would you mind sharing the age group of your parents, their general health condition and eventual side effects after the 2nd shot?
Are you not concerned by the many reports of post-vaccination deaths?

What do you make of this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9agUz5cQCk

I've yet to see a post vaccination death that wasn't traced to getting Covid19 within 4 days of vaccination, or an existing condition that doomed the person anyway. Aren't you worried about a heart attack from Covid19? Aren't you worried about giving the disease to someone else (it is really bad with influenza). Heck, the side effects last a day. My sister was in charge of monitoring 692 people who were vaccinated and she had the worst reaction (so I expect it too and would expect it of my parents). But 2 hours of chills (bad, like a bad flu) and fatigue just shows the vaccine kicked in.

Your link had someone with a prior medical fainting condition. That has nothing to do with Covid19. That would be like me worrying about the six people per day who die of alcohol poisoning. :no:
https://www.alcohol.org/statistics-info ... g%20deaths.


Do you mind me asking why you seem to be focusing on unique events on vaccines given to 33 million in USA, 13 million in UK, 3 million in Israel, and I think about 4 million others globally (minimum)? Now 40% are vaccine hesitant (give or take), why do you want to be in the tail end of those who might breed the disease?
https://time.com/5925467/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy/

I already see most people who are twice vaccinated refusing to take the prior precautions. Like it or not, like in Israel, people are going to go out and have fun once they perceive the most at risk are vaccinated enough and they will do that too early. That spikes the cases and increases the hospitalization. Six weeks after the vaccine is readily available, I'm going to party like a governor; I'll wait as a courtesy to others as I fully realize that six week clock starts long after I'll have the vaccine as well as my parents (I estimate in July everyone who wanted to be safe had the chance, the at risk I care about by mid-April fully vaccinated and I should be able to start the vaccine in late April or Early May, worse case, so I'll be fully vaccinated by start of June most likely).


The vaccine adverse are mooching off herd immunity. Well guess what, I don't see a path to herd immunity with Covid19 in 2021 as we do not yet have a children't vaccine (but only a tiny number, mostly super-obese or with cancer/kidney/heart issues, need to worry).

Good luck, people are done with lock down and are only being good to protect the vulnerable.
This summer is going to be one hell of a party and the un-vaccinated get the full experience.

Party on,
Lightsaber


This opens up to more questions.
COVID-19 is killing the old and frail.
Isn’t the whole point of the vaccines to protect the old and frail?
Yet when an old and frail person dies soon after getting the vaccine, they are reported as someone who was written-off before taking the vaccine.
If the vaccines don’t help the old and frail, but instead could pose an additional threat to them, who are they helping?

Can you imagine the carnage this fall if the vaccines or vaccination strategies perform even slightly worse than expected?

Considering how we’ve had unfounded hopes crushed time after time with Covid-19 , isn’t it prudent to take a more conservative stance and actually wait for extensive and unbiased evidence of lasting immunity before concluding that we can go all-in on loosening the brakes?

Is the stance to vaccinate quickly and without regard for results or safety not a panic reaction?

In aviation we call this get-home-itis syndrome.

The deaths after a vaccine are very investigated. There is just an extended time frame for them to be effective. Please reread the links. The deaths and hospitalizations to the frail who have had two doses and gave the vaccine two weeks are down.

Already the hospitalization and death rates for the frail are much lower, when vaccinated in bulk, than if not vaccinated.

As to waiting, people aren't. The economy cannot wait. Would it be more prudent for people in Israel to lockdown more than they are? :yes: But they aren't.

I gave you what I consider my prudent timeline. That is far longer than most will do. Just as many cannot be encouraged to vaccinate, there is a group who will not lockdown anymore. Part of the reason California lifted the lockdown is because so many violate the rules anyway.

Once the frail and their caregivers are given a chance to vaccinate, who lock down?

Something is happening. Go down and click on weekly number of deaths by age and click on "update dashboard." The death rate is plummeting in the USA. It looks like vaccinating the frail is the right strategy:
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-a300.htm

So again, once enough voluntary vaccination occurs, why not hit the gym? Go socialize?

Vaccinations have already been proven to significantly help. Getting the doctors, nurses, and dentists vaccinated, cops, caregivers, and frail and why worry?

Prudent is not partying until fully vaccinated and your neighbor is too. My local frail get vaccinated this week (finally). That is the elderly couple where she had cancer, the kind elderly neighbor who is on his own, the old couple up the street, and my elderly parents. In six and a half weeks, the whole neighborhood can stop feeling guilty about possibly exposing them.

But my timeline doesn't end at the start of April. My goes 12+ weeks longer to give time for herd immunity (July).

But what we want doesn't matter. I watched last summer Covid19 spread through the path of backyard cocktail parties to over a hundred people (we live on a canyon, your back yard isn't private). When it wasn't at all prudent, they partied.

This summer, I will join in. The world will join in. Think about the last pandemic, we threw Woodstock
https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock- ... -pandemic/

People get cabin fever. It will soon be a year of lockdown. I'm for vaccines and precautions, but in a few months, it shall be time to get back to normal.

Please make your own decisions. Obviously, we need to restrict large gatherings to the vaccinated (concerts) this summer. If the frail, caregivers, other vulnerable, and enough of the rest of the population is vaccinated, the risk is low.

Heck, look at those death rates plummet. Unless the vaccination campaign was much more effective than the debacle I believe I've seen, then perhaps we locked down enough and enough others survived it.

Vaccination is a proven way to reduce risk. If this fall is carnage, it will only be because too many refused vaccines. It is time to stop living in fear, well, in five and a half months, in my opinion.

Party on,
Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
cjg225
Posts: 2163
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:59 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:44 pm

lightsaber wrote:
But he has biased pushing vaccines away from need to political allies: e.g., Longshoremen
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AC22L

I mean, this is a good thing. A needed thing. Logistics networks are in dire straits right now. Vaccinating longshoremen is a good idea. Same with rampers, truck drivers, ocean vessel crewmen, etc. We are a nation that depends heavily on international trade to survive. California has, by far, the single biggest impact on our country for ocean cargo imports. The situation at the west coast ports is as bad as it has ever been in our history right now, and part of that is because longshore gangs are being sidelined due to quarantine protocols. Getting them vaccinated is a very, very good decision for the entirety of the US. Same thing should be happening in Jersey, Virginia, Georgia, etc...
Restoring Penn State's transportation heritage...
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:50 pm

Look at the deaths over time chart for Florida. Wow! Great news! Eight fold drop in deaths!!!
https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... db9b25e429

I love the huge amount if information Florida has always had available in this crisis.

That plummet by over a factor of eight in deaths shows how rapidly vaccines are bringing this pandemic to a manageable level.

Note: I still believe we need until July (for USA) to open up. But if enough people are willing to get vaccinated (prior link had 85%, my modeling doesn't disagree), we kick this out of our concerns!!!

If the state where everyone retires to can tame thus, then soon other states.

I just ask everyone to respect it takes time to get the vaccines out and for them to be effective. I would ask as many as possible get vaccinated to protect others.
We discussed and posted schedules of vaccines. We need a couple more months of supply out there (it takes 70 to 110 days, per prior links, to make the stuff). It takes time to bring new factories online (e.g., above I posted about Pfizer #6 coming online in Germany, just starting).

Where you live will determine when you life should be more normal. If you look at this chart, Israel, UAE, UK, and USA are first out of the gates. When they are stabilized, vaccines can be diverted, but unfortunately, not for quite a few months:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Please recall it takes about six weeks after first vaccination, assuming (if required) the second vaccination is given timely, to be effective.

Then we can party like a governor!
Soon... just wait a bit... soon...

Lightsaber

Ps, my #1 relief is knowing all my elderly relatives and neighbors now have appointments.

Please research what is right for you.

Like it or not, people are starting to declare on their own the end of lockdown.
Rising shoppers in the UK:
https://www.esmmagazine.com/amp/retail/ ... ast-122247

Israel opening restaurants in March, opening back up tourism too (selectively):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... KKBN2AE08N

With more than 41% of Israelis having received at least one shot of Pfizer Inc’s vaccine, Israel has said it will partially reopen hotels and gyms on Feb. 23 to those fully inoculated or deemed immune after recovering from COVID-19.

I see it locally. Families who used to behave are being far more social. Far less mask wearing. Please wait until others can get vaccinated.

Heck, California opened up despite numbers not really meeting metrics, because people want to live (and there is a recall drive):
https://www.newsweek.com/californias-li ... an-1564508
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
art
Posts: 4152
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:07 pm

Encouraging numbers from the UK:

Weekly first dose vaccination rate is >3% of the population

Average number of new cases each day:
28 days to Feb 15: 21,941
14 days to Feb 15: 17,474
07 days to Feb 15: 12,667
Feb 15 itself: 9,765 (first time since Oct 04 last year that daily reported case number is <10,000)

I wonder how much of the improvement is due to lockdown restrictions imposed late December and how much is due to vaccination. I suppose that if restrictions are eased but confirmed infection rates continue to fall it is difficult to avoid crediting the vaccination programme with the improvement.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:00 pm

art wrote:
Encouraging numbers from the UK:

Weekly first dose vaccination rate is >3% of the population

Average number of new cases each day:
28 days to Feb 15: 21,941
14 days to Feb 15: 17,474
07 days to Feb 15: 12,667
Feb 15 itself: 9,765 (first time since Oct 04 last year that daily reported case number is <10,000)

I wonder how much of the improvement is due to lockdown restrictions imposed late December and how much is due to vaccination. I suppose that if restrictions are eased but confirmed infection rates continue to fall it is difficult to avoid crediting the vaccination programme with the improvement.

Vaccinations have a big time lag. Two weeks ago the UK was at 14.96 jabs per a hundred people:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Getting the at risk people vaccinated cuts deaths.

Israel at, two weeks ago, having 58.54 jabs per hundred people is cutting the transmission.

The UK needs far more jabs to matter on transmission rate.

In my opinion, lockdown was the benefactor.

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5813
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:13 am

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56069460

Some fairly unequivocal and tangible real-world data on the vaccine, from Israel, especially on the Pfizer jab...

'As good as in trials'

Israel's largest health fund Clalit looked at positive tests in 600,000 vaccinated people and the same number of unvaccinated people, matched by age and health status.
It found 94% fewer infections among the vaccinated group.
[...]
And the vaccine prevented almost all cases of serious illness.
This pattern was the same in all age groups - including the over-70s, who may have been under-represented in clinical trials.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:19 pm

Francoflier wrote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56069460

Some fairly unequivocal and tangible real-world data on the vaccine, from Israel, especially on the Pfizer jab...

'As good as in trials'

Israel's largest health fund Clalit looked at positive tests in 600,000 vaccinated people and the same number of unvaccinated people, matched by age and health status.
It found 94% fewer infections among the vaccinated group.
[...]
And the vaccine prevented almost all cases of serious illness.
This pattern was the same in all age groups - including the over-70s, who may have been under-represented in clinical trials.

That is great news!
Now, if we assume Ro=3.7, two weeks ago 61 doses per hundred, I'll assume just divide that by two (assume half effectiveness for one dose) and multiply by .94, I get an effective Ro for Israel of 2.64.

Errr... They still need precautions.

Data on vaccinations by county by date:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Until 160 doses per hundred, this will keep spreading. The rule if thumb I hear is less than 1/(1+Ro) should be vulnerable or 157 doses per hundred, let us use 160 for discussion sake. (1/Ro= steady active cases).

This disease has a high Ro, so we will only tackle it with a high vaccination rate. Some sources ask for 85% vaccination rate, with just a little uncertainty, that could be what is required.

Unfortunately, Oxford-AstraZeneca and J&J have a low enough effecacy that the disease could sustain if those were the only vaccines available. I'm very curious how the 1 dose Pfizer study + 1 dose Oxford-AstraZeneca works out:

https://www.wionews.com/world/oxford-re ... acy-361227

Iceland did such a good job restraining the Virus, Pfizer has determined too few infection cases to do a study (delays full vaccination by two quarters, bummer for Iceland):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... over-covid

Lightsaber

They need to study 1 and 2 dose Oxford-AstraZeneca and then 1 dose either Pfizer or Moderna to see how effective that is as a booster shot. Just my opinion on how to quickly protect a society.

late edit:
I calculated for the fully Vaccinated people in Israel, they should experience an Ro of 0.158. In other words, even minor precautions will keep them safe. For the unvaccinated, today's more contagious varriant just means they live a life with as much risk as they would have a year ago in Israel.
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:55 pm

The weekly average of California vaccinations finally hit 200,000/day. Although this has me worry about Moderna shortages (2nd link) effecting local vaccine availability. This is why more vaccines being available is a good idea. As per my post above, we need a vast majority vaccinated to make a difference.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... tribution/

https://www.sfgate.com/news/amp/The-Lat ... 953074.php
EU Commission spokeswoman Vivian Loonella told reporters that Moderna told E.U. authorities about delays in vaccine deliveries for this month, but that “it’s likely” the U.S. company “will be caught up in March.”

Spanish media reported on Tuesday that Spain will be receiving just under half of the 400,000 Moderna doses it was expecting this week. The Spanish Health Ministry told the AP that a similar reduction has been announced across Europe.


Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:02 pm

Interesting summary on Moderna production in the USA, all US production for the USA
https://www.wcvb.com/article/moderna-sa ... m/35519410

45.4 million doses delivered.
100 million by end 1st quarter. There us a production snag at a filling and finishing vendor (my guess is the triple production rate claimed in the article was faster than the vendor was ready for).

This us good news overall, I wonder why the outside the USA production slowed?

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
WIederling
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:59 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Interesting summary on Moderna production in the USA, all US production for the USA
https://www.wcvb.com/article/moderna-sa ... m/35519410

45.4 million doses delivered.
100 million by end 1st quarter. There us a production snag at a filling and finishing vendor (my guess is the triple production rate claimed in the article was faster than the vendor was ready for).

This us good news overall, I wonder why the outside the USA production slowed?


There is nothing around that records cross border transfer of packaged for use vaccines, precursor / intermediate products.
( a single more or less aborted try to register that just recently.)
Last spring deliveries of protective materials from Asia were "redirected by check" to the US.
Murphy is an optimist
 
art
Posts: 4152
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:
Encouraging numbers from the UK:

Weekly first dose vaccination rate is >3% of the population

Average number of new cases each day:
28 days to Feb 15: 21,941
14 days to Feb 15: 17,474
07 days to Feb 15: 12,667
Feb 15 itself: 9,765 (first time since Oct 04 last year that daily reported case number is <10,000)

I wonder how much of the improvement is due to lockdown restrictions imposed late December and how much is due to vaccination. I suppose that if restrictions are eased but confirmed infection rates continue to fall it is difficult to avoid crediting the vaccination programme with the improvement.

Vaccinations have a big time lag. Two weeks ago the UK was at 14.96 jabs per a hundred people:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Getting the at risk people vaccinated cuts deaths.

Israel at, two weeks ago, having 58.54 jabs per hundred people is cutting the transmission.

The UK needs far more jabs to matter on transmission rate.

In my opinion, lockdown was the benefactor.

Lightsaber


I thimk there may be another factor involved with COVID. Since the transmission mechanism is held to be aerosol droplets, any vaccine targeted at people most likely to develop severe illness (and cough a lot) will likely reduce transmission disproportionstely. Put another way, vaccinating the 20% most likely to transmit the virus may reduce transmission through proximity to them by far more than 20%.
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 22208
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:09 pm

lightsaber wrote:
But he has biased pushing vaccines away from need to political allies: e.g., Longshoremen
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AC22L

or private schools:
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/covid- ... -says/amp/
'

The dockworkers I think are a high-priority group given how important they are to providing supplies. As for the private schools, I don't see how that can be blamed on Newsom.

lightsaber wrote:
If you look at the latimes link, California holds back more doses than many states (e.g., Utah, Texas, Colorado, Michigan, Louisiana, with New Mexico and West Virginia being the extremes in efficiency). 72.2% distributed vs. 97.7% We're running out because we hold back 25.5% and miss-allocate. If California was as efficient, we would have vaccinated 35% more doses.

So no need to conjure. Find out how New Mexico and West Virginia run the system and emulate. Then we can point the finger at supply, not yet. The problem is the state logistical management.


I think that WV and NM might run into a problem for giving timely second doses, which I think is important. California wants to reserve enough to ensure that everyone who gets their first dose can get their second.

That said, what I care most about is that doses get into arms. I think California needs to stop worrying about the "right people" getting their shots so much now that we have done HCW and 75+ and just start getting. shots. in. arms.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:06 pm

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
But he has biased pushing vaccines away from need to political allies: e.g., Longshoremen
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AC22L

or private schools:
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/covid- ... -says/amp/
'

The dockworkers I think are a high-priority group given how important they are to providing supplies. As for the private schools, I don't see how that can be blamed on Newsom.

lightsaber wrote:
If you look at the latimes link, California holds back more doses than many states (e.g., Utah, Texas, Colorado, Michigan, Louisiana, with New Mexico and West Virginia being the extremes in efficiency). 72.2% distributed vs. 97.7% We're running out because we hold back 25.5% and miss-allocate. If California was as efficient, we would have vaccinated 35% more doses.

So no need to conjure. Find out how New Mexico and West Virginia run the system and emulate. Then we can point the finger at supply, not yet. The problem is the state logistical management.


I think that WV and NM might run into a problem for giving timely second doses, which I think is important. California wants to reserve enough to ensure that everyone who gets their first dose can get their second.

That said, what I care most about is that doses get into arms. I think California needs to stop worrying about the "right people" getting their shots so much now that we have done HCW and 75+ and just start getting. shots. in. arms.

I agree California needs to get the spare doses out. Considering Moderna's issue is packaging Vaccine and had a very successful production ramp recently in the USA (links above), those they should lean forward. As waiting another week or two has been tested, that doesn't worry me and I say this as someone whose parents get dose #1 tomorrow (Moderna).

I do not know if the Pfizer production is smooth. I found links thst 45.4 million Moderna delivered. 71,657,975 total doses to feds. That means 26.25 million doses of Pfizer. With 54.6 million doses promised in six weeks from Moderna, start Moderna jabbing!!!

Seriously, holding Moderna in reserve makes no sense (other than a few days worth).

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles ... ontext=amp

I do think there should be some prioritization. e.g., 65+, first responders and medical staff, those with conditions. Then work down to age 50+.

I'm a fan of the UK strategy to prioritize first dose Now allocate incoming vaccine for timely second doses and keep a few days worth in reserve, but not the huge amount currently withheld.

My sister's hospital is a distribution center and they are no longer receiving Pfizer, right now only distributing and administering Moderna.

My hope is J&J will be allowed to bypass the politics and go straight to pharmacies. "Today those with the following health conditions and age 65+..." Keep it simple. If you want to prioritize, limit that to one vaccine (say Pfizer, yes, limit the volume controlled).

That probably won't happen... sigh...

I'm in group 1C and I would willingly forfeit my priority to a simple system like the above. Just get it out to pharmacies and bypass those who need to interfere and delay. /rant.

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 22208
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:12 am

lightsaber wrote:
I'm a fan of the UK strategy to prioritize first dose Now allocate incoming vaccine for timely second doses and keep a few days worth in reserve, but not the huge amount currently withheld.


If I were an evil villain trying to manipulate the vaccine strategy to literally breed a vaccine-resistant variant of virus, that's exactly what I would do. I would give everyone kind of mediocre antibody titers and delay giving them the second dose.

https://www.virology.ws/2021/01/05/musi ... irologist/
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:56 am

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm a fan of the UK strategy to prioritize first dose Now allocate incoming vaccine for timely second doses and keep a few days worth in reserve, but not the huge amount currently withheld.


If I were an evil villain trying to manipulate the vaccine strategy to literally breed a vaccine-resistant variant of virus, that's exactly what I would do. I would give everyone kind of mediocre antibody titers and delay giving them the second dose.

https://www.virology.ws/2021/01/05/musi ... irologist/

I specifically said a timely second dose, just less in reserve.
From this link I used before:
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles ... ontext=amp

There are 16.43 million doses at the states. Why so many? Only 55.2 million doses administered.

Per this link, 14.08 million fully Vaccinated.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

So 28.16 million doses there implies 27 million need a second dose. Assuming an accelerating schedule, 4 to 6 million 2nd doses next week of Moderna, production s/b 8.75 million+. (see below).

Worse comes to worse we pause to account for any production delay. But the reserve doses still mask a week of issues. It is 1950s planning to hold onto so many second doses. As you can see, I am not suggesting just in time. But right now the states are holding onto almost three weeks production at the old rate.

Look at the ramp! At ~45 million now. Instead of a total (not additional) of 200 million by June, talking May and another 100 million by July:
https://www.wmur.com/article/moderna-sa ... n/35526265

Prior links noted production tripled (why packaging and finishing suddenly became an issue).

So don't do just in time, but do not hold onto more than a week. Even better, do as New Mexico and West Virginia. That saves lives.

I have been advocating what matters is who was fully Vaccinated two weeks ago. I am not changing that position. My estimates are we can safely put another 8 million doses into arms over the next 16 days, intentionally pulling down reserves. (Let me be clear, I am not advocating using up more than 600,000 extra doses per day).

Other people posted on how 40,000 pharmacies are joining giving shots. So I am just advocating an extra 14 dose vial per day per pharmacy pulled out of the stores.

If over the two weeks reserves start getting low, stop the extra distribution. If the production ramp does provide the extra 250,000 doses per day, start planning sending out more (albeit that is only 2 or 3 vials more per pharmacy per week).

We have about 330 million to protect. If we can get another 8 million vulnerable early, that frees up hospital capacity.

We'll avoid the evil villain scenario. :wink:

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:36 pm

This link notes supply 13.5 million doses per week:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-per-week


Lets begin vaccinating on that supply level. Unfortunately, that means rolling back the birth year eligible by only 2 years per week.

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
art
Posts: 4152
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:19 pm

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm a fan of the UK strategy to prioritize first dose Now allocate incoming vaccine for timely second doses and keep a few days worth in reserve, but not the huge amount currently withheld.


If I were an evil villain trying to manipulate the vaccine strategy to literally breed a vaccine-resistant variant of virus, that's exactly what I would do. I would give everyone kind of mediocre antibody titers and delay giving them the second dose.

https://www.virology.ws/2021/01/05/musi ... irologist/


So the UK government is misguided in its strategy of a 12 week interval between doses? Following figures are for England only:

1st doses since 8 Dec 2020: 13,395,388 (~25% of population)
2nd doses since 8 Dec 2020: 495,704 (~1% of population)

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... cinations/

Perhaps the UK can act as a trial to see whether its vaccine strategy does result in breeding a vaccine-resistant variant of virus. I am not suggesting that delaying the second dose of the vaccine is free of risk (sounds like it could be a dangerous game to play) but a lot of data will become available about this issue because of the UK government's approach.

IF the efficacy of the 2 dose vaccination is not unacceptably compromised by an 84 day interval between doses and IF that interval does not lead to vaccine-resistant variants, it will shorten the time required for the pandemic to abate, will it not?
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5813
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:03 pm

One of the benefits of the massive research effort surrounding this virus is that there are hundreds of vaccine candidates being developed, using several different technologies and methods.

The virus may develop resistance to some of the vaccines, but I think it may have a harder time finding a way around all the many different types of vaccines, especially since many of them can be adapted to new virus genomes rather quickly.

Covid-19 made a major evolutionary mistake when it decided to spook the most intelligent species on the planet... It should have done like its cousin the flu and fly under the radar.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
WIederling
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:15 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Covid-19 made a major evolutionary mistake when it decided to spook the most intelligent species on the planet... It should have done like its cousin the flu and fly under the radar.


high incidence of "room to let" ( one has just gone back to golfing :-)

it is the regular process of evolution.

virii that kill too fast don't achieve that much desired propagation.
virus and host will adapt (to each other) over time.
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 17, 2021 5:50 pm

Sigh, I just compiled a bunch of production information on various Vaccines and, end May we finally have enough vaccine out, including J&J to protect the vaccinated (50%). If production holds, the unvaccinated in the USA are on their own, by my estimates and opinion, until August.

However, those estimates require J&J to still carry a significant amount of the vaccinations.

Note: Pfizer keeps missing the ramp up, so I just assumed they kept producing at the current rate. If they succeed in their process time reduction and increase volume, the timeline contracts or J&J's slips can continue.

J&J is expected to launch soon, but only a few million doses. :cry2: More than ten million short of plan. I used the prior links on Moderna I posted before.

For Pfiser, I'm not meaning to beat up on them. I just want dome conservatism in my estimate. My estimate of their production is 165 million doses less than promise (300 million by end July, I estimate 135 million).

I believe there production changes are too late to change May by much. But they could make June safe for the unvaccinated (> 75% vaccinated in USA) if the ramp up works.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wel ... r-BB1dLDNi

Lightsaber
Ps, Late edit
I estimate Moderna is producing 8.55 million of the current 13.5 million doses per week. All my above comment is based on that. I based that off Moderna has delivered 45.4 million of the 71.67 million doses delivered (see my prior posts for links). I just ratio'd 13.5*45.4/71.67=8.55
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
WIederling
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
For Pfiser, I'm not meaning to beat up on them. I just want dome conservatism in my estimate. My estimate of their production is 165 million doses less than promise (300 million by end July, I estimate 135 million).


What we may see is "adding resources to a late project makes it later".
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:22 pm

WIederling wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
For Pfiser, I'm not meaning to beat up on them. I just want dome conservatism in my estimate. My estimate of their production is 165 million doses less than promise (300 million by end July, I estimate 135 million).


What we may see is "adding resources to a late project makes it later".

Exactly. I believe they are getting help that slows them down.

I hope to be wrong, but that (full) above post has numbers that drive when we move forward and open up.

Less than two hours until my parents' vaccination appointment. :hyper:

Sigh, every time I do the math, my vaccine opportunity slides later...

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:37 am

Oh, the irony. I'm obsessed about the vaccine to prevent getting Coronavirus and guess what. I came down with Covid19 this afternoon. :irked:

:hissyfit:

:white:

First symptom for me is a partial loss of taste. I cannot taste any carbs (not even sugar). I cannot taste meat.
I despise pickles due to the strong flavor and when I caught myself chewing on one, I new I was doomed. I could not taste a pickle what so ever.
I can taste spices: tumeric. pepper, cayenne pepper, salt.
I was eating a spicy chicken sandwich and it tasted like the spice and all the other stuff... was just different textures. :cry2:

And thank god, coffee has all its flavor. :coffee:
But I cannot smell it... :wideeyed:

I have a mild headache, a mild... tummy sensation (honestly, it is like I feel when hungry with the two). Mild stuffiness. But this is day 1. I hear day 8 is the bear.
I also have a sore throat. Mild, but getting worse every hour. Sigh...

Thankfully, I have extremely low blood pressure and no comorbidities.

Bad news is I saw my parents (over 75, they have comorbidities) right before I came down with symptoms. I feel a thousand times less silly keeping my distance and keeping a good mask on (proper). Good news is right after they received vaccine dose #1 today. Sigh... I actually wish I didn't know so much on how it takes time for the vaccines to kick in. :shhh: Of course I told them immediately after I was diagnosed. No test yet. But the advantage of having a sister who runs a coronavirus ward is you can get diagnosed quick and... she didn't pull punches.

So this will be a new adventure!
I will get vaccinated after I recover. When I get on the priority list. :duck:
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
jrfspa320
Posts: 694
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:40 am

Now it seems the Pfizer vaccine is also less effective against the South African variation by up to two thirds:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AH2VG
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3383
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:07 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
Now it seems the Pfizer vaccine is also less effective against the South African variation by up to two thirds:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AH2VG

I caught that article is well, very strangely written:
A laboratory study suggests that the South African variant of the coronavirus may reduce antibody protection from the Pfizer Inc/BioNTech SE vaccine by two-thirds, and it is not clear if the shot will be effective against the mutation, the companies said on Wednesday.

The study found the vaccine was still able to neutralize the virus and there is not yet evidence from trials in people that the variant reduces vaccine protection, the companies said.


Here’s another article on the same study: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pfize ... eid=yhoof2
 
WIederling
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:38 am

lightsaber wrote:
So this will be a new adventure!
I will get vaccinated after I recover. When I get on the priority list. :duck:


Good and speedy recovery.

went to hospital over X-max with a (rather minor) stroke.
Brought Covid back from there and successfully distributed it .. :-(

Few symptoms, the wife came down heavier ( and her going for a "gelber Schein" exposed the infection.
had a prolonged sinusitis from early December, the hospital stay and afterwards so for me it was a surprise.)

After 3 week in quarantine we are "clean" again and: nothing specific remains though I seem to tire slightly easier.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Armadillo1
Posts: 647
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:52 am

natural immunity after have had Covid-19 is low.
persons who close to infection (medics, ambulance car crew, etc) got it second and even third time (in Russia)
 
Armadillo1
Posts: 647
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:03 am

lightsaber wrote:

Russia has their factories (I didn't find good numbers on capacity).

https://ria.ru/20210106/vaktsina-1592163887.html

Sputnik-V - december estimation 30m per month in June, but looks like it will be much earlier ("tens of millions" in february)



https://russian.rt.com/russia/news/8336 ... oizvodstva
EpiVacCorona - 400k in february, up to 4m per month at the end of year

more info (rus):
https://www.dw.com/ru/kak-rossii-vypust ... a-56408346


upd:
KoviVak:
10M to the end of year
https://nangs.org/news/coronavirus/myor ... ny-kovivak
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22446
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:55 pm

WIederling wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
So this will be a new adventure!
I will get vaccinated after I recover. When I get on the priority list. :duck:


Good and speedy recovery.

went to hospital over X-max with a (rather minor) stroke.
Brought Covid back from there and successfully distributed it .. :-(

Few symptoms, the wife came down heavier ( and her going for a "gelber Schein" exposed the infection.
had a prolonged sinusitis from early December, the hospital stay and afterwards so for me it was a surprise.)

After 3 week in quarantine we are "clean" again and: nothing specific remains though I seem to tire slightly easier.

I hope you are recovering well. That must have been a scary few weeks for your family.

Thank you for your well wishes. Day 2 seems like a mild flu, but I've heard wait a week and you'll know how it goes... Yikes!

Armadillo1 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Russia has their factories (I didn't find good numbers on capacity).

https://ria.ru/20210106/vaktsina-1592163887.html

Sputnik-V - december estimation 30m per month in June, but looks like it will be much earlier ("tens of millions" in february)



https://russian.rt.com/russia/news/8336 ... oizvodstva
EpiVacCorona - 400k in february, up to 4m per month at the end of year

more info (rus):
https://www.dw.com/ru/kak-rossii-vypust ... a-56408346


upd:
KoviVak:
10M to the end of year
https://nangs.org/news/coronavirus/myor ... ny-kovivak

Than you. I'm getting a bit cynical on how the ramp up is always six months away for all vaccines. Oh, I know any production takes time to optimize and vaccines are tougher to optimize than most items, but far away.

I will get vaccinated. I guess I should see which ones are most effective for variations not yet common in California? That said, the Sputnik V should be a major vaccine for the mid-East, Africa, and South America. I don't like the lack of information from Russia on the trials, but other regions doing their own trials have good success. More is better!

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Armadillo1
Posts: 647
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:07 pm

lightsaber wrote:

Thank you for your well wishes. Day 2 seems like a mild flu, but I've heard wait a week and you'll know how it goes... Yikes!

this muck can give complications at the end
monitor coagulogram
 
Armadillo1
Posts: 647
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:16 pm

in Moscow, vaccination is easy, i registered online and in 1 hour come to clinic.
i got Sputnik (both), it caused flu-like feels (temperature 38C) for 1 day on second dose only.
for friend it was 38 at first dose only
for some other people it was 38C in both.

wife got EpiVacCorona (first) with no symptoms
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4887
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:09 pm

Lightsaber, trust you will get through this lightly. Res your parents, I was provided a ride by my much younger sister. It turns out she was coming down with covid. We both were masked, and it was not quite 15 minutes, but obviously we were close than 6 feet. Those masks can be effective.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3752
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:56 pm

A phase 2 study of Moderna's vaccine is indicating that cutting the dosage in half to 50 ug is almost as effective as giving 100 ug:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... via%3Dihub

And there is Canadian research also indicating that just one dose for the Pfizer BioNtech or Moderna vaccine can provide almost the same level of protection as the current 2 dose regime, though long term protection is still unknown:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2036242

This could help stretch supplies for both vaccines until all priority groups can get vaccinated.
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:18 am

lightsaber wrote:
Oh, the irony. I'm obsessed about the vaccine to prevent getting Coronavirus and guess what. I came down with Covid19 this afternoon. :irked:

:hissyfit:

:white:

First symptom for me is a partial loss of taste. I cannot taste any carbs (not even sugar). I cannot taste meat.
I despise pickles due to the strong flavor and when I caught myself chewing on one, I new I was doomed. I could not taste a pickle what so ever.
I can taste spices: tumeric. pepper, cayenne pepper, salt.
I was eating a spicy chicken sandwich and it tasted like the spice and all the other stuff... was just different textures. :cry2:

And thank god, coffee has all its flavor. :coffee:
But I cannot smell it... :wideeyed:

I have a mild headache, a mild... tummy sensation (honestly, it is like I feel when hungry with the two). Mild stuffiness. But this is day 1. I hear day 8 is the bear.
I also have a sore throat. Mild, but getting worse every hour. Sigh...

Thankfully, I have extremely low blood pressure and no comorbidities.

Bad news is I saw my parents (over 75, they have comorbidities) right before I came down with symptoms. I feel a thousand times less silly keeping my distance and keeping a good mask on (proper). Good news is right after they received vaccine dose #1 today. Sigh... I actually wish I didn't know so much on how it takes time for the vaccines to kick in. :shhh: Of course I told them immediately after I was diagnosed. No test yet. But the advantage of having a sister who runs a coronavirus ward is you can get diagnosed quick and... she didn't pull punches.

So this will be a new adventure!
I will get vaccinated after I recover. When I get on the priority list. :duck:


Pardon my cynicism, and I don’t mean to rub it in, but weren’t you overeagerly in favour of reopening and partying after getting your vaccine shots?
Just a few days ago you ended one of your replies with “party on” as if invincible, so you didn’t exactly come over as the cautious, responsible individual.
Do you still feel the same way?
Why were you physically interacting with your parents?
Do you regret not being careful enough and do you feel that you want to revise how careful you want to be with Covid-19 or about the vaccines? In other words, do you think that the vaccine was the only way to prevent your infection or would other measures have helped?

Having experienced it first hand, do you still believe that vaccines will get us out of this crisis by this summer, that we can release the brakes once vaccinated?


I suggest your parents start wearing a mask and isolate from each other. This way, if one of them got it but the other didn’t, they can limit the damage.
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:43 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
natural immunity after have had Covid-19 is low.
persons who close to infection (medics, ambulance car crew, etc) got it second and even third time (in Russia)


Considering that vaccines help by simulating an infection and preparing the immune system, how do you think vaccines can maintain their effectiveness when real infections could not prevent renewed infections?

Also, how do some people manage to get infected repeatedly and not learn lessons to prevent further infections?
 
Armadillo1
Posts: 647
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:56 am

CaptainHaresh wrote:
Armadillo1 wrote:
natural immunity after have had Covid-19 is low.
persons who close to infection (medics, ambulance car crew, etc) got it second and even third time (in Russia)


Considering that vaccines help by simulating an infection and preparing the immune system, how do you think vaccines can maintain their effectiveness when real infections could not prevent renewed infections?

Also, how do some people manage to get infected repeatedly and not learn lessons to prevent further infections?

we have examples - tetanus is one, where no natural immunity at all, but vaccine provide it.

those people working with covid. medics working with infected, ambulance crew working with infected
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3752
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:28 pm

Another study is indicating that a single dose of of the Pfizer vaccine is high effective, and the vaccine doesn't require supercool freezers for storage:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-dos ... 1613723218

The Covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE generates robust immunity after one dose and can be stored in ordinary freezers instead of at ultracold temperatures, according to new research and data released by the companies.

The findings provide strong arguments in favor of delaying the second dose of the two-shot vaccine, as the U.K. has done. They could also have substantial implications on vaccine policy and distribution around the world, simplifying the logistics of distributing the vaccine.

A single shot of the vaccine is 85% effective in preventing symptomatic disease 15 to 28 days after being administered, according to a peer-reviewed study conducted by the Israeli government-owned Sheba Medical Center and published in the Lancet medical journal. Pfizer and BioNTech recommend that a second dose is administered 21 days after the first.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: art, Number6 and 22 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos