Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:20 am

CaptainHaresh wrote:
Pardon my cynicism, and I don’t mean to rub it in, but weren’t you overeagerly in favour of reopening and partying after getting your vaccine shots?
Just a few days ago you ended one of your replies with “party on” as if invincible, so you didn’t exactly come over as the cautious, responsible individual.
Do you still feel the same way?
Why were you physically interacting with your parents?
Do you regret not being careful enough and do you feel that you want to revise how careful you want to be with Covid-19 or about the vaccines? In other words, do you think that the vaccine was the only way to prevent your infection or would other measures have helped?

Having experienced it first hand, do you still believe that vaccines will get us out of this crisis by this summer, that we can release the brakes once vaccinated?


I suggest your parents start wearing a mask and isolate from each other. This way, if one of them got it but the other didn’t, they can limit the damage.



Regrets? None. I did the normal precautions and somewhere I didn't do enough. But since I know a dozen people who were careful and caught it (none horrid, that implies low viral exposure). I'm bummed I might have been the one to bring the virus into my "bubble," but so far no signs anyone else was sick. But I wasn't that social 48 hours before symptoms. The only fragile people I could have exposed were my parents. Of course I will worry about them.

However, I'm already recovering. Sinus congestion down. Headache gone. Sense of taste has started to partially return (I can now taste milk and get a sense of the taste of meat, but not full taste). But I cannot taste carbs or fat. I barely have a little more sense of smell. I might return to work on Tuesday as I couldn't get a test fast enough to register positive as I had a quick recovery. With two doctors stating "95% chance Covid19", "I don't know of any other disease with your symptoms", I'm sure I had it. But I had symptoms and by the time I was tested, I was recovering and the test was negative. 2nd test scheduled for tomorrow. I'll return to normal child custody. The doctors wonder if I was even shedding virus (many minor cases do, but if I was, the test would have been positive).

I'm actually bummed I didn't lose 20 or 30 pounds on Covid19 as many of my friends have. :duck: I lost a few pounds as the "compulsion to eat" goes away and I had to make myself put "three squares" into my tummy as you cannot recover if you are starving. Alas, I am already slightly craving food again.

Having gone through this I am ALL FOR VACCINES. I believe with a vaccine I would never have caught it.
In January I was exposed. Did I have an asymptomatic case that gave me partial immunity, I will never know as mild cases build T-cells and not anti-bodies. (We only produce anti-bodies with vaccines or bad cases, mild cases do not produce them, so no point testing them.) So perhaps I had too little exposure to build immunity, but I started a resistance? I don't know, but I believe so.

I have energy again, another of my cousins does not. I had minor chills yesterday, others had it bad.
If you get it, exercise. Get sunlight. My doctors made sure I heard that again and again as those who don't have bad results, when sick move! Sun!
One doctor when going over my activities the 4 days before symptoms was very happy to hear:
t-minus 4 days, some exercise in the back yard with playing kids. In the sun. Maybe 40 minutes
T-minus 3 days, long hike in the sun (4+hours)
T-minus 2 days, little exercise, just a 20 minute walk after lunch and then a 30 minute walk after work
T-minus 1 day, a 40 minute walk at lunch, an hour of running after work
Day of: symptoms 20 minute walk during lunch

I remain in favor of opening up. The fragile need to protect themselves.

Six weeks after everyone has the chance to be vaccinated, it is time to return to life as normal. Please remember my time buffer. Most won't do that. The vaccinated, even after one dose, are misbehaving. That I do not agree with.
Everyone is going to party when this is all done. We'll party like governors.
Party on (after I finish my quarantine, get vaccinated, and others have a chance). ;)
Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:53 am

I'm amazed how well the vaccinations are going in Israel.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

I'm tired of badly written press not based on facts. Look at how many doses per hundred people (1.45 per day vs. #1 at .94 with Chile's boost, vs. USA at 0.48 per hundred). They're getting towards vaccine hesitant populations and yet at 81.78 doses per hundred.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. Every doctor I know working Coronavirus talk about how those that take weeks linger. Some recover, some die. So we're still seeing deaths from people who were infected before the vaccine drive. But look at the drop off! That indicates they are getting most of the fragile:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/israel/j

I'm interested to see how the imminent opening up goes. It is a slow disease, so I don't expect to see a spike on March 9th. I do expect an increase.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AE08N

I expect Israel though to Party On on March 9th. I don't think they are vaccinated enough. Yet. In the last 18 days they vaccinated 23 doses per hundred. I hope the unvaccinated are ready for this opening. (Hint, go get vaccinated.)

Lightsaber
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3829
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 2:30 am

Pfizer is asking the FDA to amend the use authorization to take into account better information regarding the stability of their vaccine, as they are proposing that their vaccine can now be stored between -25°C to -15°C for up to two weeks, which would significantly ease the burden on vaccine distribution chains:

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-relea ... ility-data
 
art
Posts: 4184
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:39 am

Extended interval between AstraZeneca vaccine doses seems to give better protection:

A 3-month interval between doses of the Oxford COVID-19 vaccine results in higher vaccine efficacy than a 6-week interval, with the first dose offering 76% protection in the 3 months between doses. These results, from post-hoc exploratory analyses from a phase 3 randomised controlled trial published in The Lancet, suggest that the interval between doses can be safely extended to 3 months given the protection a single dose offers, which may allow countries to vaccinate a larger proportion of the population more rapidly. The authors note that this regimen may be beneficial while vaccine supplies are initially limited.


https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

Cannot get a link to the the published study to work but a link to it is on the same webpage.

I'm a bit baffled. How did the manufacturers come up with a 3 or 4 week interval between doses if that is not the interval providing the best efficacy?

Fortuitous for the UK where a policy of giving a first dose to as many as possible looks like being vindicated by the study.

ThePointblank wrote:
Pfizer is asking the FDA to amend the use authorization to take into account better information regarding the stability of their vaccine, as they are proposing that their vaccine can now be stored between -25°C to -15°C for up to two weeks, which would significantly ease the burden on vaccine distribution chains:


Mysterious to me. How come they did not discover this earlier?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:18 pm

art wrote:
Extended interval between AstraZeneca vaccine doses seems to give better protection:

A 3-month interval between doses of the Oxford COVID-19 vaccine results in higher vaccine efficacy than a 6-week interval, with the first dose offering 76% protection in the 3 months between doses. These results, from post-hoc exploratory analyses from a phase 3 randomised controlled trial published in The Lancet, suggest that the interval between doses can be safely extended to 3 months given the protection a single dose offers, which may allow countries to vaccinate a larger proportion of the population more rapidly. The authors note that this regimen may be beneficial while vaccine supplies are initially limited.


https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

Cannot get a link to the the published study to work but a link to it is on the same webpage.

I'm a bit baffled. How did the manufacturers come up with a 3 or 4 week interval between doses if that is not the interval providing the best efficacy?

Fortuitous for the UK where a policy of giving a first dose to as many as possible looks like being vindicated by the study.

ThePointblank wrote:
Pfizer is asking the FDA to amend the use authorization to take into account better information regarding the stability of their vaccine, as they are proposing that their vaccine can now be stored between -25°C to -15°C for up to two weeks, which would significantly ease the burden on vaccine distribution chains:


Mysterious to me. How come they did not discover this earlier?

Normally, there are years of vaccine development. The manufacturer relied on expert guidance as to the estimate and they had to try something initially. We only now had the time to try longer intervals.

Longer seems to be better:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/ox ... r-BB1dQqhe

Looking at the interval between two standard doses and its impact on efficacy, participants who were given their doses 12 or more weeks apart had greater protection (81 per cent) than people given their two doses less than six weeks apart (55 per cent).

Following a single standard vaccine dose, vaccine efficacy from 22 days to 3 months after vaccination was 76 per cent, and modelling indicated that this protection did not reduce over the 3 months. In addition, antibody levels against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein remained at similar levels for 3 months.



Better to have the vaccine out earlier. I would bet that anyone who already has the vaccine would do better if they received a 3rd dose 12 to 20 weeks after the first two doses. If I or a loved one had the earlier interval, I would insist, after 12 weeks, on another jab.

Before the fear was a single dose wouldn't provide much protection and you put the vaccinated person at risk delaying so long. Now they have data validating the approach.

This spacing out doses improving effectiveness is why my doctor has recommended I not get the coronavirus vaccine for a while after having coronavirus, but to get it before I lose whatever immunity I have.

This is great news and since this is such a mass producible vaccine, we will see a huge fraction of the world protected by it. :hyper:

Even though I really want my country to be early in fully vaccinated (USA), I will cheer on every nation getting there. In my opinion, the UK needs to accelerate vaccinations. I hope this data allows them to do so:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Of course the question remains about the South African variant. However, Oxford-AstraZeneca seems to keep people out of hospitals. That is cruicial.

The enemy of good enough is better.* We need vaccines out in mass and then we need booster shots. First, slow the spread to slow the mutations.

Lightsaber

*Obviously a vaccine must still pass trials and save people. I believe we now have Pfizer, Moderna, Oxford-AstraZeneca, Sinopharm, Sputnik V, and Johnson and Johnson that meet that criteria with more to come. e.g., NovaVax. I wish Covaxin had more data available. I personally don't know its real effectiveness. It also annoys me they renamed the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covishield as having multiple names is going to confuse people and confused people won't get a vaccine.
https://time.com/5940963/india-covid-19 ... e-rollout/
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 2:32 pm

I consider this dangerous, it builds off the 77% drop in cases over the last 6 weeks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9YbZh3Pqc0

We are reaching herd immunity, but only because:
1. Lockdowns are here
2. The most vulnerable are getting vaccinated. I happen to agree only 10% to 25% of cases are counted. I won't be counted because I healed before I could get a test. I personally know more people not counted than were counted.

The article in the WSJ (I couldn't link as I read paper, I guess I could have found it online).
I disagree 66% have had the Covid19. Here lockdown is good, but people like myself are still getting it despite how we are trying to be good.

When we open up, there will be a spike. A huge spike. People might think I'm talking about opening up, but I'm talking about opening up six weeks after vaccines are commonly available.
I'm arguing for a July party time! Not April.

Here in California we have the following varieties I believe are going around. I'm going to leave this as my opinion as this is pulled not from one clean link, but reading a bunch of different links and I became lazy after finding a bunch of them going around this area:
California Variant
UK variant
Chicago variant
Original Wuhan variant
Italian Variant

I'll focus on the California variant, it is re-infecting people.
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/nation ... story.html

South Africa variant link:
https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... california

Link on UK variant (and California variant) in California:
https://www.kcra.com/article/what-to-kn ... a/35400032

I just had a very mild Coronavirus case. I would bet that I am now immune to that variant and 2 to 4 more major families. But with "about 4,000 variants" of Cornavirus, I'm certain some will re-infect myself. So even though I am one of the majority not counted as having Coronavirus, I will get a vaccine. Since I had it easy, I expect I will again as I am of the belief the first time you get a family of a disease is probably the worst time. But I've posted numerous times about wanting to protect relatives, so I will get a vaccine for others. Also, I could really be wrong about my belief in first time is the worst time, so l consider the risk to myself less getting vaccinated than not-vaccinated. I never wanted the disease, I tried to avoid it, I failed.
On the huge number of variants (one link among hundreds):
https://news.yahoo.com/4-000-variants-v ... 48944.html

We will get to herd immunity, but in my opinion a full open up (no face masks) is dangerous before as many over 50 year olds who are willing to be vaccinated are vaccinated. Plus, get all the teachers, school staff, Dental staff, medical staff, police, fire, ambulance, doctors, and nurses who are willing to be vaccinated. There is a reason I express it as "Six weeks after vaccines are available for any adult who wants them."

An April opening up is too early in my opinion.

Note: I respect holding locked down as long as I think is wise, will not happen. People are of the opinion the fragile are all vaccinated and that just isn't true. The only country close to that is Israel (see above posts for links) and even then, they will open up before ready because the support to remain locked down is evaporating for when the grandparents are vaccinated, the greatest risk, everyone else feels there are fewer consequences than there are.

I say party like a governor when there is enough vaccine, but not yet. So I will piss off both sides.

But when there is enough vaccine,
Party on,
Lightsaber
 
User avatar
cjg225
Posts: 2200
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:59 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:32 pm

art wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Pfizer is asking the FDA to amend the use authorization to take into account better information regarding the stability of their vaccine, as they are proposing that their vaccine can now be stored between -25°C to -15°C for up to two weeks, which would significantly ease the burden on vaccine distribution chains:


Mysterious to me. How come they did not discover this earlier?

The world of stability data is mysterious in general.

I'd just be happy that they ran a stab study to find that out. Don't need to use dry ice to move it, either, if they allocate some of that stability to logistics (which they should do if they have any foresight at all, which they very well may not because no one gives a crap about logistics).
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:40 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Pfizer is asking the FDA to amend the use authorization to take into account better information regarding the stability of their vaccine, as they are proposing that their vaccine can now be stored between -25°C to -15°C for up to two weeks, which would significantly ease the burden on vaccine distribution chains:

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-relea ... ility-data


Probably lipids are holding RNA in place even at a higher temperature.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5731
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:43 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I consider this dangerous, it builds off the 77% drop in cases over the last 6 weeks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9YbZh3Pqc0

We are reaching herd immunity, but only because:
1. Lockdowns are here
2. The most vulnerable are getting vaccinated. I happen to agree only 10% to 25% of cases are counted. I won't be counted because I healed before I could get a test. I personally know more people not counted than were counted.

The article in the WSJ (I couldn't link as I read paper, I guess I could have found it online).
I disagree 66% have had the Covid19. Here lockdown is good, but people like myself are still getting it despite how we are trying to be good.

When we open up, there will be a spike. A huge spike. People might think I'm talking about opening up, but I'm talking about opening up six weeks after vaccines are commonly available.
I'm arguing for a July party time! Not April.

Here in California we have the following varieties I believe are going around. I'm going to leave this as my opinion as this is pulled not from one clean link, but reading a bunch of different links and I became lazy after finding a bunch of them going around this area:
California Variant
UK variant
Chicago variant
Original Wuhan variant
Italian Variant

I'll focus on the California variant, it is re-infecting people.
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/nation ... story.html

South Africa variant link:
https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... california

Link on UK variant (and California variant) in California:
https://www.kcra.com/article/what-to-kn ... a/35400032

I just had a very mild Coronavirus case. I would bet that I am now immune to that variant and 2 to 4 more major families. But with "about 4,000 variants" of Cornavirus, I'm certain some will re-infect myself. So even though I am one of the majority not counted as having Coronavirus, I will get a vaccine. Since I had it easy, I expect I will again as I am of the belief the first time you get a family of a disease is probably the worst time. But I've posted numerous times about wanting to protect relatives, so I will get a vaccine for others. Also, I could really be wrong about my belief in first time is the worst time, so l consider the risk to myself less getting vaccinated than not-vaccinated. I never wanted the disease, I tried to avoid it, I failed.
On the huge number of variants (one link among hundreds):
https://news.yahoo.com/4-000-variants-v ... 48944.html

We will get to herd immunity, but in my opinion a full open up (no face masks) is dangerous before as many over 50 year olds who are willing to be vaccinated are vaccinated. Plus, get all the teachers, school staff, Dental staff, medical staff, police, fire, ambulance, doctors, and nurses who are willing to be vaccinated. There is a reason I express it as "Six weeks after vaccines are available for any adult who wants them."

An April opening up is too early in my opinion.

Note: I respect holding locked down as long as I think is wise, will not happen. People are of the opinion the fragile are all vaccinated and that just isn't true. The only country close to that is Israel (see above posts for links) and even then, they will open up before ready because the support to remain locked down is evaporating for when the grandparents are vaccinated, the greatest risk, everyone else feels there are fewer consequences than there are.

I say party like a governor when there is enough vaccine, but not yet. So I will piss off both sides.

But when there is enough vaccine,
Party on,
Lightsaber

Don't be too concerned by variants. Virus will always mutate, in the same way things like flu virus does. But not all variants mean they are worse, and not all variants are significant, don't be too worried just because they found a new one.
The significant thing for the UK strain and the South Africa strain is that they include a "N501Y" mutation, that is you know viruses can make cell encode a series of amino acid according to their gene code, and with such mutation it can change the 501st amino acid encoded for the virus from "N" to "Y". This is concerning because scientists found out that the 501st amino acid would form the spike protein of the virus, where it would bind with human cell recetpor and thus lead to infection, and study of UK infection data shows that the infection rate have increased with virus that have such change.
There are other mutations that differentiate between the UK variant and the South Africa variant, one is the South Africa variant also have E484K mutation which some are concerned about its ability to espace immune system, but most other mutations are not significant.
The Californiam variant have L452R mutation, which substituted the 452nd amino acid from "L" to "R", it's being reported since it is also in the spike proteon area, but there are no prove that it's causing the virus to be more infectious.
Re-infectiom would, and have happened, even without such variant. But usually only reinfection with a different variant can be confirmed as a true reinfection, as otherwise one cannot be certain whether it's really reinfection, or just a re-emergence of virus staying in one's body. That doesn't mean the said variant is more infectious.
And then there are variants with "Q677P" or "Q677H" mutation, which changes the 677th amino acid from "Q" to either "P" or "H", but again there are no report of effect they cause although the 677th amino acid is also part pf the spike protein and is thus being concerned.

The number of "4000" for coronavirus is not about the novel.coronavirus from Wuhan that cause the current ongoing pandemic around the world, instead it is the total number of such virus we know in existence around the world, including a vast numbers that we know would infect only bats, dogs, cats, pigs, and such. Only seven of then are known to infect and transmit between human, among them four are known to cause common cold, and then one caused SARS in 2003 and is now extinguished, one caused MERS amd still occasionally reported in small number of cases from time to time, and the last one is the one that are causing the current pandemic around the world. No doubt there can be an eighth one that could appear in the future, but that wouldn't be directly connected to the one we are currently facing and will be a new type of challenge that we will be able to deal with using experience we're having now.
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:21 pm

lightsaber wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
Pardon my cynicism, and I don’t mean to rub it in, but weren’t you overeagerly in favour of reopening and partying after getting your vaccine shots?
Just a few days ago you ended one of your replies with “party on” as if invincible, so you didn’t exactly come over as the cautious, responsible individual.
Do you still feel the same way?
Why were you physically interacting with your parents?
Do you regret not being careful enough and do you feel that you want to revise how careful you want to be with Covid-19 or about the vaccines? In other words, do you think that the vaccine was the only way to prevent your infection or would other measures have helped?

Having experienced it first hand, do you still believe that vaccines will get us out of this crisis by this summer, that we can release the brakes once vaccinated?


I suggest your parents start wearing a mask and isolate from each other. This way, if one of them got it but the other didn’t, they can limit the damage.



Regrets? None. I did the normal precautions and somewhere I didn't do enough. But since I know a dozen people who were careful and caught it (none horrid, that implies low viral exposure). I'm bummed I might have been the one to bring the virus into my "bubble," but so far no signs anyone else was sick. But I wasn't that social 48 hours before symptoms. The only fragile people I could have exposed were my parents. Of course I will worry about them.

However, I'm already recovering. Sinus congestion down. Headache gone. Sense of taste has started to partially return (I can now taste milk and get a sense of the taste of meat, but not full taste). But I cannot taste carbs or fat. I barely have a little more sense of smell. I might return to work on Tuesday as I couldn't get a test fast enough to register positive as I had a quick recovery. With two doctors stating "95% chance Covid19", "I don't know of any other disease with your symptoms", I'm sure I had it. But I had symptoms and by the time I was tested, I was recovering and the test was negative. 2nd test scheduled for tomorrow. I'll return to normal child custody. The doctors wonder if I was even shedding virus (many minor cases do, but if I was, the test would have been positive).

I'm actually bummed I didn't lose 20 or 30 pounds on Covid19 as many of my friends have. :duck: I lost a few pounds as the "compulsion to eat" goes away and I had to make myself put "three squares" into my tummy as you cannot recover if you are starving. Alas, I am already slightly craving food again.

Having gone through this I am ALL FOR VACCINES. I believe with a vaccine I would never have caught it.
In January I was exposed. Did I have an asymptomatic case that gave me partial immunity, I will never know as mild cases build T-cells and not anti-bodies. (We only produce anti-bodies with vaccines or bad cases, mild cases do not produce them, so no point testing them.) So perhaps I had too little exposure to build immunity, but I started a resistance? I don't know, but I believe so.

I have energy again, another of my cousins does not. I had minor chills yesterday, others had it bad.
If you get it, exercise. Get sunlight. My doctors made sure I heard that again and again as those who don't have bad results, when sick move! Sun!
One doctor when going over my activities the 4 days before symptoms was very happy to hear:
t-minus 4 days, some exercise in the back yard with playing kids. In the sun. Maybe 40 minutes
T-minus 3 days, long hike in the sun (4+hours)
T-minus 2 days, little exercise, just a 20 minute walk after lunch and then a 30 minute walk after work
T-minus 1 day, a 40 minute walk at lunch, an hour of running after work
Day of: symptoms 20 minute walk during lunch

I remain in favor of opening up. The fragile need to protect themselves.

Six weeks after everyone has the chance to be vaccinated, it is time to return to life as normal. Please remember my time buffer. Most won't do that. The vaccinated, even after one dose, are misbehaving. That I do not agree with.
Everyone is going to party when this is all done. We'll party like governors.
Party on (after I finish my quarantine, get vaccinated, and others have a chance). ;)
Lightsaber


Many thanks for sharing in detail.
I would stay put if I were you.

Most severe cases seem to feel better before they suddenly crash and feel like they’re drowning.
The disease progression is sudden.
Hypoxia makes COVID-19 patients feel better until they suddenly realise that they can t breathe.
Lungs don’t have the sensory capacity to let you know that something is very wrong.
Testing negative means nothing when many labs are only testing a fraction of their incoming samples without anyone to certify or supervise them.

You may also not have the viral load in the nose to test positive yet, the swab sampling may not have been thorough or the sample may not have been conserved properly or too long.
Quarantine is normally two weeks after the symptoms dissipate and consecutive negative tests.

Going to work on Tuesday?
Did you know that hypoxia can cloud your judgement?

Don’t worry about work, take care of yourself and don’t wait a minute to head to the hospital if you start feeling any sign of shortness of breath.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:11 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
Pardon my cynicism, and I don’t mean to rub it in, but weren’t you overeagerly in favour of reopening and partying after getting your vaccine shots?
Just a few days ago you ended one of your replies with “party on” as if invincible, so you didn’t exactly come over as the cautious, responsible individual.
Do you still feel the same way?
Why were you physically interacting with your parents?
Do you regret not being careful enough and do you feel that you want to revise how careful you want to be with Covid-19 or about the vaccines? In other words, do you think that the vaccine was the only way to prevent your infection or would other measures have helped?

Having experienced it first hand, do you still believe that vaccines will get us out of this crisis by this summer, that we can release the brakes once vaccinated?


I suggest your parents start wearing a mask and isolate from each other. This way, if one of them got it but the other didn’t, they can limit the damage.



Regrets? None. I did the normal precautions and somewhere I didn't do enough. But since I know a dozen people who were careful and caught it (none horrid, that implies low viral exposure). I'm bummed I might have been the one to bring the virus into my "bubble," but so far no signs anyone else was sick. But I wasn't that social 48 hours before symptoms. The only fragile people I could have exposed were my parents. Of course I will worry about them.

However, I'm already recovering. Sinus congestion down. Headache gone. Sense of taste has started to partially return (I can now taste milk and get a sense of the taste of meat, but not full taste). But I cannot taste carbs or fat. I barely have a little more sense of smell. I might return to work on Tuesday as I couldn't get a test fast enough to register positive as I had a quick recovery. With two doctors stating "95% chance Covid19", "I don't know of any other disease with your symptoms", I'm sure I had it. But I had symptoms and by the time I was tested, I was recovering and the test was negative. 2nd test scheduled for tomorrow. I'll return to normal child custody. The doctors wonder if I was even shedding virus (many minor cases do, but if I was, the test would have been positive).

I'm actually bummed I didn't lose 20 or 30 pounds on Covid19 as many of my friends have. :duck: I lost a few pounds as the "compulsion to eat" goes away and I had to make myself put "three squares" into my tummy as you cannot recover if you are starving. Alas, I am already slightly craving food again.

Having gone through this I am ALL FOR VACCINES. I believe with a vaccine I would never have caught it.
In January I was exposed. Did I have an asymptomatic case that gave me partial immunity, I will never know as mild cases build T-cells and not anti-bodies. (We only produce anti-bodies with vaccines or bad cases, mild cases do not produce them, so no point testing them.) So perhaps I had too little exposure to build immunity, but I started a resistance? I don't know, but I believe so.

I have energy again, another of my cousins does not. I had minor chills yesterday, others had it bad.
If you get it, exercise. Get sunlight. My doctors made sure I heard that again and again as those who don't have bad results, when sick move! Sun!
One doctor when going over my activities the 4 days before symptoms was very happy to hear:
t-minus 4 days, some exercise in the back yard with playing kids. In the sun. Maybe 40 minutes
T-minus 3 days, long hike in the sun (4+hours)
T-minus 2 days, little exercise, just a 20 minute walk after lunch and then a 30 minute walk after work
T-minus 1 day, a 40 minute walk at lunch, an hour of running after work
Day of: symptoms 20 minute walk during lunch

I remain in favor of opening up. The fragile need to protect themselves.

Six weeks after everyone has the chance to be vaccinated, it is time to return to life as normal. Please remember my time buffer. Most won't do that. The vaccinated, even after one dose, are misbehaving. That I do not agree with.
Everyone is going to party when this is all done. We'll party like governors.
Party on (after I finish my quarantine, get vaccinated, and others have a chance). ;)
Lightsaber


Many thanks for sharing in detail.
I would stay put if I were you.

Most severe cases seem to feel better before they suddenly crash and feel like they’re drowning.
The disease progression is sudden.
Hypoxia makes COVID-19 patients feel better until they suddenly realise that they can t breathe.
Lungs don’t have the sensory capacity to let you know that something is very wrong.
Testing negative means nothing when many labs are only testing a fraction of their incoming samples without anyone to certify or supervise them.

You may also not have the viral load in the nose to test positive yet, the swab sampling may not have been thorough or the sample may not have been conserved properly or too long.
Quarantine is normally two weeks after the symptoms dissipate and consecutive negative tests.

Going to work on Tuesday?
Did you know that hypoxia can cloud your judgement?

Don’t worry about work, take care of yourself and don’t wait a minute to head to the hospital if you start feeling any sign of shortness of breath.

No hypoxia. My blood oxygen is at 97%. I have a little finger meter for that. I'm a Hazwopper rescue lead, so I know all the little tests for low oxygen judgement. I'm over this.

I never had fatigue.
I never had lung congestion

I am consulting a pair of doctors. If my next test is negative, which I will be shocked if it isn't, I am released to work unless the doctor says otherwise.

There are really mild cases.

The only thing is my resting pulse is way up at 76 beats per minute (very high for myself, when the meter reads 44, that is more normal).

Everyone is reading the worse case and projecting them.

Guess what, the old advice of good food, good excercise, and good air (sunlight) works.

I am obeying local guidelines. If symptoms fade and then you have two negative tests at least 24 hours apart, quarantine is over.

Lightsaber

I should have noted the way testing works in California it is test, wait a day for results, test again. So minimum 3 days, plus work must agree to take me back. My doctor directed me to wait an additional day between testing for my specific case, so I waited. (test day, results day, wait day, today was another test day).

pps, doctor has cleared me assuming the result is negative. However, being the weekend, I am unlikely to have the results before Monday.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:00 pm

Next text was indeed negative. I am now presumptive Covid19 free!

Better still, no symptoms in any of my contacts! Alas, a few more days required to be certain. It is trending towards I was one not to shed virus... I cannot be certain, of course.

From all my posts, I think everyone knows I have researched my vaccines. For myself I will get, in order of my preference: Pfizer, Moderna, NovaVax, and J&J. (last two not yet FDA approved) But due not let my opinion sway you as some vaccine is better than none.

I consider the current "go out in April" meme dangerous. I do not think enough of the population will be vaccinated by then. I believe it will take until July.

Yes, same actions, but a 3 month delay.

That said, it feels great that by California standards I am cleared. My doctor approved me for work tomorrow. I have decided to wait until Tuesday as was the original plan for no other reason than that was what was originally discussed if both tests were negative. just to be clear, I never had a positive test as I recovered too quickly.

I actually hope the surpressed appetite continues. ;) I liked the free weight loss and you wouldn't believe the weight loss of some of my friends. Now some comes back (GI track fills back up), much doesn't. Why isn't the media harping on the rapid weight loss? :scratchchin:

In July, party on,
Lightsaber
 
CranfordBoy
Posts: 28
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:42 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:48 am

Real world data from effectiveness of UK vaccination program starting to emerge:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56153600

Interesting that both Pfizer and Astrazeneca vaccines appear to provide similar efficacy in reducing serious illness. The vast majority of this vaccinated cohort will be the elderly (over 70s) so supporting the decision taking by the UK, EMA and WHO to approve use of the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 65s.
 
User avatar
BaconButty
Posts: 932
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:40 pm

85% for Pfizer and 94% for Astrazeneca, for efficacy in preventing hospitalisation. Absolutely no suprise to anyone who's been paying attention.

Just got to hope it will do the trick against the SA variant when that inevitably becomes entrenched.
 
art
Posts: 4184
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:17 pm

BaconButty wrote:
85% for Pfizer and 94% for Astrazeneca, for efficacy in preventing hospitalisation. Absolutely no suprise to anyone who's been paying attention.


It's been a surprise to many in the UK that the vaccination programme has not been a failure (some previous government programmes eg tracking and tracing having been spectacularly unsuccessful).

Like you, I have been paying attention (logging and analysing UK infection and England vaccination figures since March 2020) and like you it comes to me as no surprise that vaccination has spectacularly reduced the incidence of serious illness related to COVID-19. After all, that was what was seen in the vaccine trials.

Most people in the groups most likely to suffer serious illness have now been vaccinated in England. If this virus is no longer going to cause large numbers of people in the UK to become really ill, is it not time to start returning to to pre-COVID behaviour? Here in England we have vaccinated 25% of the population, pretty much all people (refusers excepted) likely to become seriously ill with COVID. What does it matter if large numbers of people are infected henceforth if those who are infected do not become seriously ill?
 
User avatar
Dano1977
Posts: 759
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:28 pm

BaconButty wrote:
85% for Pfizer and 94% for Astrazeneca, for efficacy in preventing hospitalisation. Absolutely no suprise to anyone who's been paying attention.

Just got to hope it will do the trick against the SA variant when that inevitably becomes entrenched.



Yet you read in the papers, that people in mainland Europe are refusing the Astrazeneca vaccine because it is inferior. :roll:
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:17 pm

BaconButty wrote:
85% for Pfizer and 94% for Astrazeneca, for efficacy in preventing hospitalisation. Absolutely no suprise to anyone who's been paying attention.

Just got to hope it will do the trick against the SA variant when that inevitably becomes entrenched.


Does 85% effective mean that for 15% of vaccinated, the vaccine is no good mere weeks after it was administered?
85% is already a lot less than 95%.
Will we see a steady downward revision until herd immunity becomes unattainable?

If the vaccines do not hold high effectiveness the same way people are losing their immunity fast after infections, will countries abandon vaccinating everybody and instead shift focus to vaccinating only the weak over and over again?

When that happens, will societies be able to keep it together or will people lose it after the vaccines overpromised and underdeliver?

In many countries, voices are rising on easing restrictions based solely on vaccine hopes and curves flattened at high plateaus by those very restrictions.
Isn’t this the mistake that was made last summer?
Are we going to put ourselves through this again?
What has Biden done so far?
 
StarAC17
Posts: 4158
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:23 pm

art wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
85% for Pfizer and 94% for Astrazeneca, for efficacy in preventing hospitalisation. Absolutely no suprise to anyone who's been paying attention.


It's been a surprise to many in the UK that the vaccination programme has not been a failure (some previous government programmes eg tracking and tracing having been spectacularly unsuccessful).

Like you, I have been paying attention (logging and analysing UK infection and England vaccination figures since March 2020) and like you it comes to me as no surprise that vaccination has spectacularly reduced the incidence of serious illness related to COVID-19. After all, that was what was seen in the vaccine trials.

Most people in the groups most likely to suffer serious illness have now been vaccinated in England. If this virus is no longer going to cause large numbers of people in the UK to become really ill, is it not time to start returning to to pre-COVID behaviour? Here in England we have vaccinated 25% of the population, pretty much all people (refusers excepted) likely to become seriously ill with COVID. What does it matter if large numbers of people are infected henceforth if those who are infected do not become seriously ill?


Medical professionals and politicians are going to be conservative about this as they probably should be. Furthermore how are levels of people in hospital and in ICU? If basically cleared then yeah go for it.

Where I live in Ontario, Canada we have a reasonable case load (about 1,000 a day and a positivity rate of 2-3%) and much of the province has done modest reopening last week. However the ICU numbers are still high enough that any surge which will quickly be an issue, not so bad to the extent that covid patients won't be seen but other surgeries will get delayed.

We are very behind on vaccinations though
 
GDB
Posts: 14396
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:47 am

art wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
85% for Pfizer and 94% for Astrazeneca, for efficacy in preventing hospitalisation. Absolutely no suprise to anyone who's been paying attention.


It's been a surprise to many in the UK that the vaccination programme has not been a failure (some previous government programmes eg tracking and tracing having been spectacularly unsuccessful).


There's a reason for that, they had to, in the wake of the past failures, give the vaccinations to the experts,the NHS, rather than their grubby donors and mates (like Matt Hancock's publican), the worst being this incompetent (trashed the company Talk Talk - fell upwards, ran that superspreader race course event last March - fell upwards, wife of Tory MP, constituent of Matt Hancock and of course major donors;
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgybuqFch91gvwlIhqF4AaABCQ

22Bn for something that didn't work.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:47 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
85% for Pfizer and 94% for Astrazeneca, for efficacy in preventing hospitalisation. Absolutely no suprise to anyone who's been paying attention.

Just got to hope it will do the trick against the SA variant when that inevitably becomes entrenched.


Does 85% effective mean that for 15% of vaccinated, the vaccine is no good mere weeks after it was administered?
85% is already a lot less than 95%.
Will we see a steady downward revision until herd immunity becomes unattainable?

If the vaccines do not hold high effectiveness the same way people are losing their immunity fast after infections, will countries abandon vaccinating everybody and instead shift focus to vaccinating only the weak over and over again?

When that happens, will societies be able to keep it together or will people lose it after the vaccines overpromised and underdeliver?

In many countries, voices are rising on easing restrictions based solely on vaccine hopes and curves flattened at high plateaus by those very restrictions.
Isn’t this the mistake that was made last summer?
Are we going to put ourselves through this again?
What has Biden done so far?


Less than 1% fo the UK is fully vaccinated! Comparing numbers 2 weeks after the 2nd dose to single dose real world information is not a fair comparison.

We are talking an amazing 85% reduction in hospitalizations from one dose!!! For a vaccine available. Yes, Oxford AstraZeneca's 85% is less than Pfizer's 95%, but both are way better than no vaccine (0%).

The UK is on a grand experiment. If you argue people should get a 2nd dose earlier, then who will you deny the first dose? Who do you put at risk of a greater hospital visit?

Latest data
Israel doses: 85.01 per hundred, 35.5% fully vaccinated (so heavily skewed toward fully vaccinated)
UAE: 56.16 (unknown how many fully vaccinated)
UK: 26.81 doses per hundred, a tiny 0.9% fully vaccinated. Doses are going to 1st dose
US : 19.06 per hundred, 5.8% fully vaccinated
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Soon the UK will add NovaVax to the list of administered vaccines (should be really soon):
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13907 ... -in-UK-EVG

For the SA variant, get J&J or the booster coming this autumn. Or, accept the Oxford AstraZeneca, with two doses, will keep people out of the hospital.

We need more vaccines, but mostly we need more vaccine production.
The AstraZeneca factory has dramatically increased production :hyper:
https://news.yahoo.com/eu-says-astrazen ... 26752.html
New factory in Japan ramping up:
https://www.republicworld.com/world-new ... japan.html

The fact that people shorted a dose of vaccine are doing so well is amazing. Stop and think about it, a vast majority of hospital stays are averted with one jab. :hyper:

all UK adults to be offered 1st Jab by July 31st:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56141867

The mistake is to slow vaccination. Until all the fragile people are two dose vaccinated (Diabetes, Obese, over 50, conditions such as cancer, Kidney disease, hypertension) and the rest of the population is single dose vaccinated, there will be an issue.

We already know the Oxford AstraZeneca will get an Autumn booster for the SA strain. :yawn:
Expect an annual jab. That is just how it will be.

This is incredibly encouraging news. The only scary thing about this summer is not being at least 21 days since the first jab. :duck:

LIghtsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:10 pm

Israel to keep pubs closed until summer, vaccine 96% effective:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... 21ea60184b

I'm not big into going to bars, but my friends who do are livid that they are closed. IMHO, I believe the will of the governed will force the pubs and bars open earlier than wise. The only counter is to increase vaccination rates which means improving distribution and of course production.

The fact every over 16 in Israel can get vaccinated (when they get an appointment) is amazing.

This link has a lot of good charts. e.g., how many jabs per hundred by country, how many fully vaccinated per country, what vaccines have been distributed in the USA by type (includes experimental, but thankfully that is a low fraction now). How many doses by country (unfortunately, the USA fell off the parabola it was on),

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Scotland is also seeing a sharp drop in hospitalizations:
https://www.cbs17.com/news/scotland-vac ... lizations/

“This new evidence shows that the jab protects you, and protects those around you,’’
“as you cannot spread the virus if you do not have infection.”


My opinion is we need more vaccines being distributed (e.g., J&J, NovaVax) so people protect others.

Vaccinate the fragile first. Then vaccinate as many as possible, but soon it is time to have fun.
I will get vaccinated ASAP to protect the many 80+ year people I associate with. I miss having meals with them. First they need two doses + two weeks, but then I also need a dose and at least a few weeks so that I don't bring the virus to them. But soon we can party like governors.
We now have real world data showing vaccination of health care workers alone is slowing the spread. With a Ro=3.7 for the now common UK variant, we need > 70% vaccination rates, possibly > 85% to stop this Covid19.

I consider it irresponsible to deny vaccination as that is a disregard of others.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5731
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:42 pm

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6385922
Japanese government internally floated the idea of only admitting vaccines once to each receivers, seeing as there are report of certain degree of effectiveness even with only one dose and vaccine supply is limited in general, but the health department rejected it saying there are no sufficient data and doing so would be unscientific.


On the pyher topicI forgot where I saw the report, but there was an article which said with varied and incomplete pace of vaccination across the globe, the various vaccines would act as a selection pressure to the coronavirus, which would accelerate the speed vaccine-resisting variants spreading compare to those that are not and help the resistance straims to gain domination
 
art
Posts: 4184
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Scotland is also seeing a sharp drop in hospitalizations:
https://www.cbs17.com/news/scotland-vac ... lizations/

“This new evidence shows that the jab protects you, and protects those around you,’’
“as you cannot spread the virus if you do not have infection.”


My opinion is we need more vaccines being distributed (e.g., J&J, NovaVax) so people protect others.

Lightsaber


Yes, good news from the Scotland data.

I log vaccinations in England. The government's target was by the end of February to offer to vaccinate all members of several groups (working down age-wise, people at increased risk should they contract COVID-19, health workers, care workers). This has been done. I am noticing, however, that the total number of vaccinations administered each day (1st dose / second dose) has been falling in recent days. I want to see more vaccinations per day, not less.

Rolling 7 day averages (England)
Feb 15 - 337K
Feb 16 - 332K
Feb 17 - 333K
Feb 18 - 345K
Feb 19 - 346K
Feb 20 - 330K
Feb 21 - 312K
Feb 22 - 302K
Feb 23 - 293K

I wonder if the programme is suffering from targetitis - target reached, so we can slow down and relax a bit now. Or perhaps financial inducements have reduced, so the cost of paying people a premium to work outside normal hours is no longer covered by the government? Whatever, I do not like seeing the rate at which people are being vaccinated falling, especially since the number of 2nd doses administered is set to jump from <5K a day to a figure >150K a day in the near future.

If England does not go back to vaccinating higher numbers, this epidemic is going to last longer than it should.

Are any other countries seeing a slowing down in vaccination (Israel excepted)?
 
WIederling
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:37 pm

Dano1977 wrote:
Yet you read in the papers, that people in mainland Europe are refusing the Astrazeneca vaccine because it is inferior. :roll:


wrong.

It was not cleared for 65+ due to no qualifying data available for that age group at the time it was certifyed for use.
Your rolling facts are thus "post facts". I suppose the Astrazeneca people will push the British data for 65+ towards the EMA.

Anyway as long as a(nother) product covering the 65+ group is available this limitation isn't really of relevance.
Just a question of who gets what.
 
art
Posts: 4184
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:16 pm

WIederling wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
Yet you read in the papers, that people in mainland Europe are refusing the Astrazeneca vaccine because it is inferior. :roll:


wrong.

It was not cleared for 65+ due to no qualifying data available for that age group at the time it was certifyed for use.


But how many people are informed enough to realise that there is no problem with the vaccine itself? Still, it does not really matter - providing it is not the only vaccine available to groups who then decline to be vaccinated.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:41 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Scotland is also seeing a sharp drop in hospitalizations:
https://www.cbs17.com/news/scotland-vac ... lizations/

“This new evidence shows that the jab protects you, and protects those around you,’’
“as you cannot spread the virus if you do not have infection.”


My opinion is we need more vaccines being distributed (e.g., J&J, NovaVax) so people protect others.

Lightsaber


Yes, good news from the Scotland data.

I log vaccinations in England. The government's target was by the end of February to offer to vaccinate all members of several groups (working down age-wise, people at increased risk should they contract COVID-19, health workers, care workers). This has been done. I am noticing, however, that the total number of vaccinations administered each day (1st dose / second dose) has been falling in recent days. I want to see more vaccinations per day, not less.

Rolling 7 day averages (England)
Feb 15 - 337K
Feb 16 - 332K
Feb 17 - 333K
Feb 18 - 345K
Feb 19 - 346K
Feb 20 - 330K
Feb 21 - 312K
Feb 22 - 302K
Feb 23 - 293K

I wonder if the programme is suffering from targetitis - target reached, so we can slow down and relax a bit now. Or perhaps financial inducements have reduced, so the cost of paying people a premium to work outside normal hours is no longer covered by the government? Whatever, I do not like seeing the rate at which people are being vaccinated falling, especially since the number of 2nd doses administered is set to jump from <5K a day to a figure >150K a day in the near future.

If England does not go back to vaccinating higher numbers, this epidemic is going to last longer than it should.

Are any other countries seeing a slowing down in vaccination (Israel excepted)?

I think a lot of selfish people are asking what is in it for me on vaccines. The numbers are so-so for the UK. But since so few are getting 2nd dose, I would assume it is a supply issue still? The question mark is that I don't know.

There are always multiple groups for vaccines
1. I will get fully vaccinated and then return to hiding in the bat cave.
2. I will get fully vaccinated, then lead a normal life (some with, some without masks, perhaps a proper time delay applies to every category from #2 down).
3. I will get one vaccine as my level of health, it is good enough. Perhaps a booster later, perhaps not.
4. I will only get vaccinated if required for work, travel, concerts, etc.
5. Enough other people are vaccinated, I will wait, but this group will, they might be waiting for more fragile to first Perhaps waiting to over-optimize vaccine selection. Some are just selfish
6. I will get vaccinated after a high bar of data is available, maybe if another bad outbreak happens, but otherwise I'll be selfish and let others protect me.
7. No, I have a tinfoil hat, thank you. None of the multitude of vaccines will be good enough.

My opinion is everyone is tired of lockdown. The level of misbehavior I see is increasing daily as those people worry about are vaccinated and they assume other fragile are too. Too many assume instant gratification with one dose (why do most people not understand a 2 week time lag?).

For some, their income only returns when life returns to normal. Bartenders, barbers, restaurant owners, concert producers, musicians, resort staff... Not to mention everyone misses socialization. Sigh, I'm going crazy in quarantine (2 and a half more days, my doctor decided not to let me return to work in an abundance of caution).

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” ― Upton Sinclair

Lightsaber
Ps, I cannot wait to party like a governor, but everything I have read is wait to drink until 2 weeks after 2nd vaccine.
 
User avatar
cjg225
Posts: 2200
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:59 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
5. Enough other people are vaccinated, I will wait, but this group will, they might be waiting for more fragile to first Perhaps waiting to over-optimize vaccine selection. Some are just selfish
6. I will get vaccinated after a high bar of data is available, maybe if another bad outbreak happens, but otherwise I'll be selfish and let others protect me.
7. No, I have a tinfoil hat, thank you. None of the multitude of vaccines will be good enough.

Wee bit judgmental.

No pharmaceutical product has ever been developed this fast before. The data is very promising, but by default, we have no idea what the results are long term because, unless someone has a time machine, a "long term" amount of time simply hasn't been able to pass.

So, yes, there are people who want to see more data.
 
User avatar
BaconButty
Posts: 932
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:03 pm

WIederling wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
Yet you read in the papers, that people in mainland Europe are refusing the Astrazeneca vaccine because it is inferior. :roll:


wrong.

It was not cleared for 65+ due to no qualifying data available for that age group at the time it was certifyed for use.
Your rolling facts are thus "post facts". I suppose the Astrazeneca people will push the British data for 65+ towards the EMA.

Anyway as long as a(nother) product covering the 65+ group is available this limitation isn't really of relevance.
Just a question of who gets what.


You're going a tad "post facts" here. There is Data. Fact. The data is the data used for Immunobridging. This is a common technique used to approve treatments for the elderly, pregnant women, children etc.

So you have a large (tens of thousands) trial. You get your primary endpoint data as events, and at the unblinding you get to see how many events were in your main cohort, and how many in the control. But you don't want to blast 5000 pregnant women to get meaningful data. So what you do is analyse the immune system responses in the lab, antibody and T-Cell, in both your main cohort and a smaller number of the ladies in question. If they're near as dammit the same you can extrapolate that the efficacy of the treatment will be the same. That's what AZ has done. Immune response data is data. The EMA was happy with it. The WHO was happy with it. Only a number of EU countries dissented - due to what the former head of the EMA described as political reasons.

"Anyway as long as a(nother) product covering the 65+ group is available this limitation isn't really of relevance.". It's another logistical constraint you can do without. What if you're going into a care home to innoculate a mix of staff and residents, say?

As for @Dano1977 main point - I imagine he's referring to this.

The vaccine, subject of an acrimonious tug-of-war between its British-Swedish manufacturer and the European commission last month, is being described by German media as a “shelf warmer” as only about 17% of doses delivered to the country have been administered so far.

According to the German disease control agency’s monitoring, 129,021 doses of a delivered 736,800 had been administered by Thursday this week.


Edit: Add link.
Last edited by BaconButty on Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
BSRadar
Posts: 51
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2013 5:35 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:14 pm

Hi Lightsaber - very good tracking job on the Covid situation, but just to quibble with you on one of your comments:-

"We are talking an amazing 85% reduction in hospitalizations from one dose!!! For a vaccine available. Yes, Oxford AstraZeneca's 85% is less than Pfizer's 95%, but both are way better than no vaccine (0%)" - Have you got those figures absolutely correct?

Others have noted that whilst both Oxford AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines are hugely effective in reducing hospitalisation, but the percentages you quote should be pretty much reversed as:. Oxford AstraZeneca at 94% and Pfizer somewhat less effective at 85%. Should we call that a happy quibble within such good results? Here's a source:-

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 05490.html - from Public Health Scotland. It is understood that Public Health England have similar emerging/emergent figures in the pipeline.

Perhaps the most significant observation though from these results is that the Oxford AstraZeneca is very effective in the elderly who are the most hospitalised. The vaccination efforts within the UK have thus far concentrated on the top four tiers i.e. the over-70's. That refutes and snubs the various asinine and po-faced EC comments against the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine ("not recommended for over-65's / restrict use to under-65's / inadequate data", etc.). The EC stance against the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine was of course entirely political as a result of them losing face by pratting around when it came to placing orders for the vaccine. The red-faced EC said they couldn't place orders because all of the EC nations had to agree, and then they bleated about the UK being able to make decisions fast and acting fast. An EC endorsement for Brexit if ever there was one! Subsequently and farcically, the EC nearly caused a rupture in the arduously worked out Northern Ireland agreement to try and force the re-direction of vaccines ordered for the UK to the EC countries.

Anyway Lightsaber - let's hope we continue to witness the emergence of further wonderful data and progress to that elusive "normality".
 
User avatar
BaconButty
Posts: 932
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:22 pm

lightsaber wrote:
We are talking an amazing 85% reduction in hospitalizations from one dose!!! For a vaccine available. Yes, Oxford AstraZeneca's 85% is less than Pfizer's 95%, but both are way better than no vaccine (0%).


Other way round! :-) So for every 6 hospitalizations with Oxford/AZ, there have been 15 with Pfizer. WWWiiiidddeee confidence intervals no doubt but it's one in a lot of indicators (starting with the pre-clinical trials) pointing to the AZ vaccine increasing in efficacy as you go up the scale, and Pfizer doing the reverse. So as I understand it there are five "levels" of COVID:

1. Asymptomatic. Efficacy here is indicative of a vaccines ability to stop transmission, though duration and vaccine load will be important too.
2. Symptomatic.
3. Severe. Indicative of potential for preventing Long Covid.
4. Hospitalization. How much of a drain it will put on your healthcare provision.
5. Pushing up daisies. The big one.

The one used in the trials is by far the least interesting, unless you sell paracetamol. But everything I've seen points to Pfizer's strengths being at the top of the list (but still very good at the bottom) and AZ's at the bottom. Which I find interesting from the point of view of their use - in an ideal world you would use the Pfizer one on younger people who may act as vectors for the virus - nurses, care home staff etc. And AZ where the risk of death is higher - the elderly, or otherwise vulnerable. I suspect the logistical constraints would scupper that anyway.

Edit: Typos - and just to add the the SA variant is a fly in that ointment - will be interesting to see the outcome of the 100,000 strong "trial" they're doing.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:03 pm

cjg225 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
5. Enough other people are vaccinated, I will wait, but this group will, they might be waiting for more fragile to first Perhaps waiting to over-optimize vaccine selection. Some are just selfish
6. I will get vaccinated after a high bar of data is available, maybe if another bad outbreak happens, but otherwise I'll be selfish and let others protect me.
7. No, I have a tinfoil hat, thank you. None of the multitude of vaccines will be good enough.

Wee bit judgmental.

No pharmaceutical product has ever been developed this fast before. The data is very promising, but by default, we have no idea what the results are long term because, unless someone has a time machine, a "long term" amount of time simply hasn't been able to pass.

So, yes, there are people who want to see more data.


Talk to a doctor about the life style changes they have seen in patients. Not deaths. Disabilities.

I already see *most* people not wearing masks outside of crowded areas. Everyone wants their normal life back. This lockdown behavior is starting to fall apart. You pick your risk to yourself and others.

I mean it when I say I'll be good until six weeks after everyone has a chance at a vaccine. I also fully intend to have fun after that.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
cjg225
Posts: 2200
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:59 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Talk to a doctor about the life style changes they have seen in patients. Not deaths. Disabilities.

I already see *most* people not wearing masks outside of crowded areas. Everyone wants their normal life back. This lockdown behavior is starting to fall apart. You pick your risk to yourself and others.

I mean it when I say I'll be good until six weeks after everyone has a chance at a vaccine. I also fully intend to have fun after that.

Lightsaber

Okay, not relevant to what I said, but sure, let's go with all that.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:32 pm

Good (ish) news, they will distribute 14.5 million doses this week in the USA:
https://www.wbko.com/2021/02/23/states- ... this-week/

My math says that is vaccine production started in November.... :scratchchin:
What I'm stating is we're still seeing a normal production increase trend.

I'm happier to hear the vaccines to pharmacies will be increased. This is a start. Since we all need two doses (I think even the J&J will switch to a 2 dose course, but just my opinion), that means we need 660 million doses or 45.5 weeks for the USA. Thankfully, we know two new vaccines are coming (J&J, NovaVax) and Pfizer and Moderna are still ramping up production.

And... I think the estimates that 40% won't get vaccinated are about right. While this link says it is down to 32%, I know enough who circle back to know they won't get a vaccine.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... c-n1257152

4% per week isn't enough to make a difference in the spread of a vaccine.
If you look at Israel, the death rate turned over on Feb 8th.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/
That was 66.74 doses per hundred in Israel
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

So we are a long way away from it being material if someone wants a vaccine or not. It definitely looks like Moderna is starting to pull ahead in production. In that last link, search for Moderna and you will see the distribution of the two vaccines (hopefully more on that chart soon).

Lightsaber




I'll be happier
 
art
Posts: 4184
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I mean it when I say I'll be good until six weeks after everyone has a chance at a vaccine. I also fully intend to have fun after that.

Lightsaber


You keep telling me (well, not just me) that you want to party when you can. I just want to work when I can (have interests in a couple of countries I have not been able to visit for a year). After those interests are brought back under control, then I will celebrate. All the time that I cannot work, things are going backwards for me and what is somewhat depressing is that while UK may achieve sufficient vaccination to quell the UK epidemic in a few months, other countries will still be in lockdown and will continue to prevent me going there (or if I can go there, prevent anything useful getting done).

I think a more global approach to this pandemic would be a very good thing - a little bit of joined up international regulation would be very welcome.
 
User avatar
BaconButty
Posts: 932
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:37 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I mean it when I say I'll be good until six weeks after everyone has a chance at a vaccine. I also fully intend to have fun after that.

Lightsaber


You keep telling me (well, not just me) that you want to party when you can. I just want to work when I can (have interests in a couple of countries I have not been able to visit for a year). After those interests are brought back under control, then I will celebrate. All the time that I cannot work, things are going backwards for me and what is somewhat depressing is that while UK may achieve sufficient vaccination to quell the UK epidemic in a few months, other countries will still be in lockdown and will continue to prevent me going there (or if I can go there, prevent anything useful getting done).

I think a more global approach to this pandemic would be a very good thing - a little bit of joined up international regulation would be very welcome.


I think it's why coordination over using tests and vaccine passports to enable travel needs to happen. A clear lateral flow test on the day, with either a vaccine passport or a clear PCR test a couple of days earlier, should be sufficient to open up the kind of travel you need?

The problem is, with the two vaccines we are using having "issues" with the SA variant there's the risk of that blowing up over the summer. Yesterdays SAGE modelling (of the effects of lifting restrictions) was interesting. Even if we come out of this on the relatively patient timescales proposed, a lot more folks will meet their maker.

Not worried about the recent lull in vaccinations. Two potential reasons - the reconfiguring of the Pfizer production system in Belgium, or the increased bureaucracy exporting vaccines from the EU - I know the latter has caused delays in Japan, but while it may add latency it shouldn't affect bandwidth. Whatever, they've felt confident enough to pull the date for the first 9 priority groups in 18 days. I expect the date for all adults to get their first dose will come in to the end of June once they have certainty about Moderna deliveries and the Novavax vaccine is approved, first doses April per the CEO, but presumably not from the UK, since the Fujifilm facility is only supposed to be ready in July.

I've got a question for anyone in the know. The UK government had gone big on the Valneva vaccine. They ordered 60m and recently exercised some options for 40m more. They've also invested in the manufacturing chain. But it's only in Phase 1/2 trials. I have seen mentions from those in the know that it will make a good candidate for boosters since it should offer protection from variants. It's a "whole inactivated virus" vaccine. Why would that make it a good candidate for boosters? Is it because it presents more of the genetic sequence of the virus proteins to the immune system?

@GDB - totally agree with your post. Recounting the imbecilic failures and downright corruption of our political class is depressing though :-( Our institutions - the ONS, MHRS, JVCI and of course NHS are outstanding. Our academic institutions too. And yet with all those advantages, together with that of being an Island, they still f***ed it up, and royally.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:14 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I mean it when I say I'll be good until six weeks after everyone has a chance at a vaccine. I also fully intend to have fun after that.

Lightsaber


You keep telling me (well, not just me) that you want to party when you can. I just want to work when I can (have interests in a couple of countries I have not been able to visit for a year). After those interests are brought back under control, then I will celebrate. All the time that I cannot work, things are going backwards for me and what is somewhat depressing is that while UK may achieve sufficient vaccination to quell the UK epidemic in a few months, other countries will still be in lockdown and will continue to prevent me going there (or if I can go there, prevent anything useful getting done).

I think a more global approach to this pandemic would be a very good thing - a little bit of joined up international regulation would be very welcome.

Part of my partying is employing friends so they can work. For every two people I know who are doing ok, I know one who severely lost income. Including dance studios, bar owners, and many other small business. I personally know at least 50 laid off people.

For them to thrive, the economy must open up. I'm being snarky in the economic support of my friends. I will pony up to my friend's bar and buy drinks to support him. I will attend weddings to help friends in that industry. Most of all, I made friends who do various things that involve dancing (bar owner, studio owner, instructors). I will support them too. There is no reason, once vaccines have been readily available for six weeks, for me not to support their jobs.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:58 am

Good news, vaccine production increasing:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurk ... 56b72f76c5

Pfizer to ship 120 million doses to US by end of March (in total, includes already delivered doses) another 80 million by end of May
Moderna 100 million doses by end of March (in total, includes delivered doses) and another 100 million by end of May.
J&J On track for 20 million does by end of March, increasing to a total of 100 million by end of June (another 80 million).
Bloomberg projects there will be enough vaccine supply to vaccinate 130 million Americans by the end of March based on the three companies’ projections, and approximately 200 million people by April 30.

This link has 64.07 million doses administered. To date
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

That is a nice steep increase in vaccines. FWIW, I believe there will be a severe vaccine shortage until we hit vaccine resistance and then we'll have a surplus. My best guess is the first 200 million people will be vaccinated quickly and then the uptake slows significantly.

Looking at the data from the 2nd link,
--------------In arm:---------Total delivered end March ----------- Total delivered end May
Pfizer --- 32.85 M ------------ 100 M --------------------------------- 180 M (best case 90 million vaccinated, probably less)
Moderna 31.85 M -------------100 M --------------------------------- 200 M (best case 100 million vaccinated, probably less)
J&J ------ n/a ---------------------20 M --------------------------------- 100 M (best case 100 million vaccinated, probably less

Ok, I understand how 130 million people could be vaccinated by end March (some 2X Pfizer and Moderna, a bunch only first shot).
But with enough vaccine to inoculate 290 million people by end May (fully), we actually should be at 200 million fully vaccinated by then plus most of the population 1 dose.
Unless the hesitancy really kicks in...

Lightsaber
 
Tiredofhumanity
Posts: 168
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:27 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 7:57 am

I'm not going to lie - these mutations are really freaking me out, especially the SA one.

I'm wondering if it's even worth it at this point :cry:
 
art
Posts: 4184
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:16 am

BaconButty wrote:
art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I mean it when I say I'll be good until six weeks after everyone has a chance at a vaccine. I also fully intend to have fun after that.

Lightsaber


You keep telling me (well, not just me) that you want to party when you can. I just want to work when I can (have interests in a couple of countries I have not been able to visit for a year). After those interests are brought back under control, then I will celebrate. All the time that I cannot work, things are going backwards for me and what is somewhat depressing is that while UK may achieve sufficient vaccination to quell the UK epidemic in a few months, other countries will still be in lockdown and will continue to prevent me going there (or if I can go there, prevent anything useful getting done).

I think a more global approach to this pandemic would be a very good thing - a little bit of joined up international regulation would be very welcome.


I think it's why coordination over using tests and vaccine passports to enable travel needs to happen. A clear lateral flow test on the day, with either a vaccine passport or a clear PCR test a couple of days earlier, should be sufficient to open up the kind of travel you need?


Unfortunately I need people to do work for me in France and Portugal. If they are locked down, I cannot get anything done even if I am allowed into the country. There are also other problems visiting countries where the population has not been vaccinated

- transport links to UK may shut down while I am abroad, leaving me marooned
- UK may demand quarantine on return to UK

Roll on vaccination everywhere for everyone!
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5731
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:24 am

BaconButty wrote:

I've got a question for anyone in the know. The UK government had gone big on the Valneva vaccine. They ordered 60m and recently exercised some options for 40m more. They've also invested in the manufacturing chain. But it's only in Phase 1/2 trials. I have seen mentions from those in the know that it will make a good candidate for boosters since it should offer protection from variants. It's a "whole inactivated virus" vaccine. Why would that make it a good candidate for boosters? Is it because it presents more of the genetic sequence of the virus proteins to the immune system?

Not sure about the one UK invested, but China also use inactivated virus to make vaccine and have been shown to be less effective against the South African type. Upgrading such vaccine for new variant also takes longer than mRNA vaccines.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:14 pm

art wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
art wrote:

You keep telling me (well, not just me) that you want to party when you can. I just want to work when I can (have interests in a couple of countries I have not been able to visit for a year). After those interests are brought back under control, then I will celebrate. All the time that I cannot work, things are going backwards for me and what is somewhat depressing is that while UK may achieve sufficient vaccination to quell the UK epidemic in a few months, other countries will still be in lockdown and will continue to prevent me going there (or if I can go there, prevent anything useful getting done).

I think a more global approach to this pandemic would be a very good thing - a little bit of joined up international regulation would be very welcome.


I think it's why coordination over using tests and vaccine passports to enable travel needs to happen. A clear lateral flow test on the day, with either a vaccine passport or a clear PCR test a couple of days earlier, should be sufficient to open up the kind of travel you need?


Unfortunately I need people to do work for me in France and Portugal. If they are locked down, I cannot get anything done even if I am allowed into the country. There are also other problems visiting countries where the population has not been vaccinated

- transport links to UK may shut down while I am abroad, leaving me marooned
- UK may demand quarantine on return to UK

Roll on vaccination everywhere for everyone!

In my opinion, the surest way to get the most vaccine early was massive amounts of funding early. The EU spent less and thus has less for a huge block of population... I'm not going to worry about a rich block of nations not able to get enough vaccine. That is a political and funding error. They can afford to fix it. There is no great magic to suddenly have a vaccine for everyone. It takes 70 to 110 days to make a batch (I posted links much earlier in the thread). So if someone is waiting to verify a vaccine is great, the manufacturer probably didn't even have the funds to purchase the raw ingredients, so that is a 4 month delay to 1st doses.

In my opinion, the UK did the "Royal Sampler" approach to vaccines (I've posted numerous links upthread on their purchases) and are going to benefit as they funded, at a minimum, the trials in the UK. Again and again the UK was the first to approve vaccines: Pfizer, AstraZeneca and soon J&J and NovaVax (in my opinion). They also buy vaccines at risk early!
Britain's 'buy first, test later' approach may be its best chance of getting a working jab, said the Vaccine Taskforce chief, who admitted most of the Covid-19 jabs won't work.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... vavax.html

I could repost links on project Warp Speed funding (which some companies refused), but what we see is the countries that put money forth early enabled vaccine production and thus are benefitting. The UK is absolutely the best example of that. When they get the J&J and/or NovaVax (there is always a chance one fails trials, until they have emergency approval nothing is certain).

So be happy in the UK the various workers will get to work soon. Once we have a group of countries that can open up, they'll help the world open up.

Again and again the UK funds the trials. So naturally, the UK can administer a vaccine first. This thread started on Pfizer with UK trials. Then we had AstraZenca. Then Moderna (if I have out of order, mea culpa).

I haven't yet heard of the EU jabbing AstraZenica. Have they? They complain about not getting doses, but if it isn't approved, that is immaterial. The bad PR will probably make people wait which, in my opinion, is worse than the UK strategy.

What is needed is more production, which requires more funding.

It looks like vaccine passports will happen. So you should be able to travel. (see below link).

I'm not going to worry about a rich block of countries. They can buy their way out of the problem. They should be doing *much* more. Seriously, fund Sputnick V, SinoPharm, NovaVax, or other vaccine trials. There are a dozen candidates out there that the EU could have accelerated acceptance. hey claim the EU is catching up anyway:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ter-report

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14752
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:57 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
art wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
85% for Pfizer and 94% for Astrazeneca, for efficacy in preventing hospitalisation. Absolutely no suprise to anyone who's been paying attention.


It's been a surprise to many in the UK that the vaccination programme has not been a failure (some previous government programmes eg tracking and tracing having been spectacularly unsuccessful).

Like you, I have been paying attention (logging and analysing UK infection and England vaccination figures since March 2020) and like you it comes to me as no surprise that vaccination has spectacularly reduced the incidence of serious illness related to COVID-19. After all, that was what was seen in the vaccine trials.

Most people in the groups most likely to suffer serious illness have now been vaccinated in England. If this virus is no longer going to cause large numbers of people in the UK to become really ill, is it not time to start returning to to pre-COVID behaviour? Here in England we have vaccinated 25% of the population, pretty much all people (refusers excepted) likely to become seriously ill with COVID. What does it matter if large numbers of people are infected henceforth if those who are infected do not become seriously ill?


Medical professionals and politicians are going to be conservative about this as they probably should be. Furthermore how are levels of people in hospital and in ICU? If basically cleared then yeah go for it.

Where I live in Ontario, Canada we have a reasonable case load (about 1,000 a day and a positivity rate of 2-3%) and much of the province has done modest reopening last week. However the ICU numbers are still high enough that any surge which will quickly be an issue, not so bad to the extent that covid patients won't be seen but other surgeries will get delayed.

We are very behind on vaccinations though


Here we consider a positivity rate of 0.9% to be out of control, but in Ontario 2-3% is reasonable ?
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5916
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:17 pm

Aesma wrote:

Here we consider a positivity rate of 0.9% to be out of control, but in Ontario 2-3% is reasonable ?


There may well be a difference on how that figure is calculated. It is very dependent on how much testing is done and who is tested.

Canada has done a lot better than many other Western nations in terms of containing the spread. It has a much lower number of cases and deaths per capita than France (where I believe you hail from) or other Europeans nations and certainly much less than its neighbor to the south.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:48 pm

Aesma wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
art wrote:

It's been a surprise to many in the UK that the vaccination programme has not been a failure (some previous government programmes eg tracking and tracing having been spectacularly unsuccessful).

Like you, I have been paying attention (logging and analysing UK infection and England vaccination figures since March 2020) and like you it comes to me as no surprise that vaccination has spectacularly reduced the incidence of serious illness related to COVID-19. After all, that was what was seen in the vaccine trials.

Most people in the groups most likely to suffer serious illness have now been vaccinated in England. If this virus is no longer going to cause large numbers of people in the UK to become really ill, is it not time to start returning to to pre-COVID behaviour? Here in England we have vaccinated 25% of the population, pretty much all people (refusers excepted) likely to become seriously ill with COVID. What does it matter if large numbers of people are infected henceforth if those who are infected do not become seriously ill?


Medical professionals and politicians are going to be conservative about this as they probably should be. Furthermore how are levels of people in hospital and in ICU? If basically cleared then yeah go for it.

Where I live in Ontario, Canada we have a reasonable case load (about 1,000 a day and a positivity rate of 2-3%) and much of the province has done modest reopening last week. However the ICU numbers are still high enough that any surge which will quickly be an issue, not so bad to the extent that covid patients won't be seen but other surgeries will get delayed.

We are very behind on vaccinations though


Here we consider a positivity rate of 0.9% to be out of control, but in Ontario 2-3% is reasonable ?


I think above 5% is considered pandemic, so below it is relatively better.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:14 pm

FDA has now released J&J effecacy data:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-BB1dYH9y

My opinion is Friday's meeting is just a delay so that enough doses are released to have some impact.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-BB1dYH9y


As I posted upthread, I am in a deilemma. Do I wait for mRNA or grab a (potential) earlier J&J. With a hundred million dose by end April to be delivered to the USA, that is a game changer. Yet, another 120+ million mRNA expected too...

I'm so far down the politically motivated priority list (my industry is off the state essential list while on the Federal mandating we show up for work...).

So, decisions, decisions. Having coronavirus and waiting at least a month is supposed to make vaccines more effective (others posted links on single doses for infected). But I never had a positive test... I can go either way.

230 million doses is another 69 doses per hundred. The data from Israel posted upthread suggests with the 19.65 doses per hundred we already have, we could open up here in the USA earlier than my previous statements! :hyper:

As per prior posts, Israel opened up with 85 doses per hundred, so that should be good enough.

Besides, look at worldometers.info/coronavirus

What is with the global reduction? People certainly aren't behaving around here, nor in so many locations from anecdotal evidence. Only Israel has enough vaccinations to reduce cases... Why a global plummet in cases? We've never seen that before.

Perhaps I was too judgey condemning the calls to open up in April? I still think waiting until everyone over age 16 has an opportunity for a jab and waiting six weeks.

Lightsaber

Ps I think it will spike up again. We cannot slack on vaccines.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5916
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 5:34 pm

lightsaber wrote:
What is with the global reduction? People certainly aren't behaving around here, nor in so many locations from anecdotal evidence. Only Israel has enough vaccinations to reduce cases... Why a global plummet in cases? We've never seen that before.


It is my uninformed understanding that viruses spread naturally in waves.
I am not sure even epidemiologists fully understand why they seem to spread exponentially all of a sudden and then suddenly retreat with no apparent reason.

It is very apparent this time because no globally airborne spreading virus has been documented as this one has. Although that being said, we are far from understanding exactly how pervasive that virus truly is. As in your case, there are so many people who have been exposed to it without getting into the statistics that we have no real idea of the inroad this virus has made.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5046
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:05 pm

Despite on the nonsense on this site and others about 'herd immunity', such a thing does exist and it is almost entirely achieved with vaccines. It also is not an all or nothing sort of thing. Once a certain percent of the population is vaccinated, or even just the first shot, it is likely but not proven, that they will be less likely to pass on the disease. I am expecting that by the time 1/3rd of the US is vaccinated (and they will be for the most part the most vulnerable or essential workers) we will see the R0 dropping to below one and the numbers of newly infected, hospitalized, or dying all going down. Variants are a concern, but at this point the US approved or about to be approved seem to have significant protection against the variants.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:10 pm

Francoflier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
What is with the global reduction? People certainly aren't behaving around here, nor in so many locations from anecdotal evidence. Only Israel has enough vaccinations to reduce cases... Why a global plummet in cases? We've never seen that before.


It is my uninformed understanding that viruses spread naturally in waves.
I am not sure even epidemiologists fully understand why they seem to spread exponentially all of a sudden and then suddenly retreat with no apparent reason.

It is very apparent this time because no globally airborne spreading virus has been documented as this one has. Although that being said, we are far from understanding exactly how pervasive that virus truly is. As in your case, there are so many people who have been exposed to it without getting into the statistics that we have no real idea of the inroad this virus has made.

I appreciate your response. I'm confused as when I read online articles claim why, I then see on webcams (2 more days of quarantine) behavior that makes no sense. E.g., I saw a webcam of a train station in India and :banghead: OMG, there is no chance the trains aren't superspreader events as so many had noses uncovered! Yet they are not... Locally, before my quarantine, I jogged past several bus stops full of unmasked people huddled together, unmasked, in the bus shelters (cold day) and yet locally our cases are plummeting.

I can accept virus waves as a theory. In a lull, take the opportunity to open up, but get vaccinated ASAP! If a vulnerable/fragile person, isolate until 2 weeks after dose #2, in my opinion (and get mRNA, if at all possible).

But a global wave? Impacting Brazil, India, US, EU and all the countries not vaccinated enough to matter?!? I haven't found one spike. Between the polar vortex that whacked Texas, different hemispheres, something is happening.

Sadly, I cannot recommend international air travel, yet. By July, a bubble should happen. Not yet.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
BaconButty
Posts: 932
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:20 pm

Been playing around with some data if anyone's interested. I've taken the Scottish Governments leaked supply data, and scaled it for the UK. Then taken the UK governments weekly vaccination data. I've used them to project the vaccination rates until the end of May.

Assumptions: 7.5 million vaccines in the supply chain, or "buffer" as I've called it. It's currently 6m, and since this weeks figures a way higher than mine, they must be digging into it further. Also 10 weeks between Jabs - from what we're seeing in practice they're often not even waiting that long. 50K second doses were given out today, when in reality no one should have hit 10 weeks let alone 12. Lastly, no Novavax, though vaccinations are supposed to start in April per their CEO.

Note negative first doses - in reality delivery capacity constraints would smooth things out, together with holding doses back and using the buffer.

Key takeaway: 44m first doses, 33m second doses out of a population of 67m, 52m adults. So I don't know how typical of Western countries this is, but there does seem to be some under-promising going on.

Image
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22908
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:09 am

Moderna has a booster entering testing for SA variant: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB1dZaTM

I don't know what else to say, we all knew boosters were coming.

Lightsaber

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cskok8, L0VE2FLY, VMCA787 and 26 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos