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Dano1977
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:53 am

BaconButty wrote:
Been playing around with some data if anyone's interested. I've taken the Scottish Governments leaked supply data, and scaled it for the UK. Then taken the UK governments weekly vaccination data. I've used them to project the vaccination rates until the end of May.

Assumptions: 7.5 million vaccines in the supply chain, or "buffer" as I've called it. It's currently 6m, and since this weeks figures a way higher than mine, they must be digging into it further. Also 10 weeks between Jabs - from what we're seeing in practice they're often not even waiting that long. 50K second doses were given out today, when in reality no one should have hit 10 weeks let alone 12. Lastly, no Novavax, though vaccinations are supposed to start in April per their CEO.

Note negative first doses - in reality delivery capacity constraints would smooth things out, together with holding doses back and using the buffer.

Key takeaway: 44m first doses, 33m second doses out of a population of 67m, 52m adults. So I don't know how typical of Western countries this is, but there does seem to be some under-promising going on.

Image



Overpromise and it goes wrong = egg on face
Underpromise and smash targets = you look like the dogs danglies.

I can only speak from experience in my area, but we have a few vaccination centres, and I've never seen them socially distanced queuing out the door. I'm sure there is plenty of slack in the system to ramp up even further than the current rate of between 250,000 - 500,000 per day.
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:48 pm

Dano1977 wrote:
I can only speak from experience in my area, but we have a few vaccination centres, and I've never seen them socially distanced queuing out the door. I'm sure there is plenty of slack in the system to ramp up even further than the current rate of between 250,000 - 500,000 per day.


Hope they start to take the slack up. I have England reaching ~30% 1st dose received by March 1st and ~42% 1st dose received by April 1st, assuming 350,000 jabs a day. That is a bit of a guesstimate since my spreadsheet uses 2nd dose values equalling 1st dose values published 84 days earlier (so, no data available yet). Also 7 day rolling avg rate has fallen significantly in the last few days (345K a week ago, 288K today).

I hope we get the rate back up soon.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:41 pm

art wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
I can only speak from experience in my area, but we have a few vaccination centres, and I've never seen them socially distanced queuing out the door. I'm sure there is plenty of slack in the system to ramp up even further than the current rate of between 250,000 - 500,000 per day.


Hope they start to take the slack up. I have England reaching ~30% 1st dose received by March 1st and ~42% 1st dose received by April 1st, assuming 350,000 jabs a day. That is a bit of a guesstimate since my spreadsheet uses 2nd dose values equalling 1st dose values published 84 days earlier (so, no data available yet). Also 7 day rolling avg rate has fallen significantly in the last few days (345K a week ago, 288K today).

I hope we get the rate back up soon.

I proposed a week "buffer" should be correct. If the 6 million doses in the "buffer" are right, they should be "digging in" to the buffer. I would assume someone made a decision where they won't have to cut back too much.

I like charts for data (every squiggle means something, reviewing data is a big part of my career):
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

That has the UK is at .51 doses per hundred people per day, down from .64 doses per hundred people per day. Considering all approved vaccines require 2 doses (and I believe the J&J must be followed up with a booster, ideally a mRNA booster, research for the Oxford-AstraZeneca in work on that very concept, link in prior discussion).

In my opinion the UK should slightly accelerate vaccinations. But only up to say .65 doses per hundred people (or about 420,000 per day). Unfortunately, that means eating into the stockpile quite a bit. Perhaps as much as 170k doses per day. How can I advocate this:
1. Early vaccination means fewer transmissions, hospitalizations, and deaths
2. NovaVax should be approved soon. That should give the UK extra doses just before the reserve hits 1 week.
3. J&J should be approved soon. In the USA this weekend. I do not know when doses would get to the UK, but that would be a happy story to also boost jabs.

Looking at the first chart of my first link, the UK needs to get the slope up on jabs significantly. Israel opened up at 85 jabs per hundred and if you look at worldometer, the impacts are instead of a nice decline in the negative indicators, it looks to be a flat line of: cases per day, deaths, and active cases (I fully admit, far too early for any conclusion):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

So it looks like opening up with 85 doses per hundred people is too early. :cry2: Not far too early, but too early.
I modeled this disease and I know my model doesn't have the fidelity of the University of Chicago model nor as many variables. But it does give a decent indication of a trend. If over half the people are vaccinated (which is the case in Israel), the vaccinated are protected (we should see a drop in cases of the vaccinated soon where the apparent effectiveness of the vaccine increases). My model doesn't have much of a drop in cases among the unvaccinated until far more receive a jab. With an Ro=3.7 for the UK variant, I actually expect an uptick in Israel cases. However, I think enough of the fragile have been jabbed that the death rate will go down again (possibly after an uptick, I don't know) if the jab rate of 1.44 jabs per hundred (vs. UK of 0.51) is maintained or doesn't drop more than 20%.

Note: The 94% effectiveness seems to be holding up, study expanded to 1.2 million people in Israel:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... eople.html
The efficacy against symptomatic infections was 57 percent between 14-20 days after the first dose, but rose to 94 percent seven days after the second dose - very close to the 95 percent achieved during Phase 3 clinical trials.
ut gyms, swimming pools, hotels and some cultural facilities are re-opening only to those who have been fully vaccinated and obtained the so-called green pass.

Interesting read, they are matching like people to like people and see just how well the vaccine works.

Concerts (up to 500 people) and indoor entertainment are now open in Israel. I am so jealous. This only applies to the 3 million people with the "Green pass." Reading that link made me realize how much I miss going to the gym and the pool. Due to the limited population fully vaccinated, I support limiting activities to "Green Pass" holders for the next few months.

If we assume Israel drops to 1.2 jabs per hundred per day, over the next month they get up to (we'll round down) to 125 jabs per hundred and perhaps 50% fully vaccinated.

Has anyone heard about a booster for Pfizer for the South African variant?

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DocLightning
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:05 pm

lightsaber wrote:

Has anyone heard about a booster for Pfizer for the South African variant?

Lightsaber


They're working on it. Moderna shipped theirs to the NIH (I think) yesterday for testing. In truth, BNT could probably have a few vials ready to go tomorrow if they really wanted to.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Dano1977
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:33 pm

art wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
I can only speak from experience in my area, but we have a few vaccination centres, and I've never seen them socially distanced queuing out the door. I'm sure there is plenty of slack in the system to ramp up even further than the current rate of between 250,000 - 500,000 per day.


Hope they start to take the slack up. I have England reaching ~30% 1st dose received by March 1st and ~42% 1st dose received by April 1st, assuming 350,000 jabs a day. That is a bit of a guesstimate since my spreadsheet uses 2nd dose values equalling 1st dose values published 84 days earlier (so, no data available yet). Also 7 day rolling avg rate has fallen significantly in the last few days (345K a week ago, 288K today).

I hope we get the rate back up soon.


According to today's data... First dose figures have started to climb again, over the last couple of days. It's up to almost 450k today, from a low of 141k, on 21st February.
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:40 pm

First the headline of the article is the opposite of the information in the article, but what matters is education workers start getting Covid19 in the county I live in next week.

Then the article notes people are using the wrong code to "jump the line." Err... That will happen if people think the allocation isn't fair, in my opinion and shows tiers of priority are here for a long time.

e.g., two of my friends are in police groups where over 50% of their department have had Covid19, but they are lower priority and do not have a date for vaccination. Shock (not), one transfered to an out of state agency that already has him vaccinated.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid ... r-BB1e1bCX
DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Has anyone heard about a booster for Pfizer for the South African variant?

Lightsaber


They're working on it. Moderna shipped theirs to the NIH (I think) yesterday for testing. In truth, BNT could probably have a few vials ready to go tomorrow if they really wanted to.

Thank you. While among those lucky enough to get the vaccine have had Moderna, 5 of my friends had Pfizer.

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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:54 am

Seychelles is now #2 behind Israel for vaccinated population.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccin ... YC~USA~ISR
(note, you have to put them in manually).

I won't link the article that noted as it mistook doses for people vaccinated....
But 48% of the population with 1 dose is a great start.

Lightsaber
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astuteman
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:40 am

WIederling wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
Yet you read in the papers, that people in mainland Europe are refusing the Astrazeneca vaccine because it is inferior. :roll:


wrong.

It was not cleared for 65+ due to no qualifying data available for that age group at the time it was certifyed for use.
Your rolling facts are thus "post facts". I suppose the Astrazeneca people will push the British data for 65+ towards the EMA.

Anyway as long as a(nother) product covering the 65+ group is available this limitation isn't really of relevance.
Just a question of who gets what.


Lack of qualifying data disappeared a very long time ago, as evidenced above.

I recounted my own personal experiences way back in the thread, with 85 year old plus residents in my wife's care home staying asymptomatic after having caught the new Covid strain, just 9 days after the first AZ jab.
The AZ vaccine produces an amazing improvement in the very old after just one jab

And yet I'm still seeing headlines like this

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/as ... d=msedgdhp

I have always been a "remainer" in the UK and was proud of our links to the EU.
But this is just "sick" in so many ways.

They don't want the AZ vaccine?
All I can say is f**k em. Let them die then, in their ignorance.
 
marcelh
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:18 am

astuteman wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
Yet you read in the papers, that people in mainland Europe are refusing the Astrazeneca vaccine because it is inferior. :roll:


wrong.

It was not cleared for 65+ due to no qualifying data available for that age group at the time it was certifyed for use.
Your rolling facts are thus "post facts". I suppose the Astrazeneca people will push the British data for 65+ towards the EMA.

Anyway as long as a(nother) product covering the 65+ group is available this limitation isn't really of relevance.
Just a question of who gets what.


Lack of qualifying data disappeared a very long time ago, as evidenced above.

I recounted my own personal experiences way back in the thread, with 85 year old plus residents in my wife's care home staying asymptomatic after having caught the new Covid strain, just 9 days after the first AZ jab.
The AZ vaccine produces an amazing improvement in the very old after just one jab

And yet I'm still seeing headlines like this

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/as ... d=msedgdhp

I have always been a "remainer" in the UK and was proud of our links to the EU.
But this is just "sick" in so many ways.

They don't want the AZ vaccine?
All I can say is f**k em. Let them die then, in their ignorance.

Some facts instead of emotions:
AZ is rolled out as quickly as possible in the EU and the EMA did approve it for everyone.
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-recommends-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-authorisation-eu
Real problem is that AZ can’t deliver quick enough.
 
WIederling
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:05 am

astuteman wrote:
And yet I'm still seeing headlines like this

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/as ... d=msedgdhp


The AS product seems to be avoided at all cost here in Germany by eligible candidates.
slots to get your jab lapse. ( accompanied by hysterics.: dangerous!!! )

I wonder who inserted that MEME.

The rumor mill is rotating at high RPM right now. ( aided by apparently botched supply measures .... )
The wife is working in mobile care and i am appalled at what passes around from her twittering coworkers.

Germany's current wave (#2) "overshoot" was caused by undisciplined hysterics and sense of entitlement.
( human rights are an inter human thing. you have few unalienable rights against natural disaster. )
Murphy is an optimist
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:41 am

astuteman wrote:
They don't want the AZ vaccine?
All I can say is f**k em. Let them die then, in their ignorance.


They may still be refusing the AZ vaccine through failing to keep up with the data but so what? It is not the only vaccine available. What counts is vaccinating people with the available supplies. Now if AZ was the only vaccine available and large numbers of people were refusing it, so delaying herd immunity, that might be a problem. In saying that, if quantities of the vaccine are ending up being thrown away through lack of take up that IS a problem to me.

Just give it to me or anyone else who wants it instead. I guess there are a few million people other people in the UK who would welcome it, too.
 
astuteman
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:14 am

art wrote:
astuteman wrote:
They don't want the AZ vaccine?
All I can say is f**k em. Let them die then, in their ignorance.


They may still be refusing the AZ vaccine through failing to keep up with the data but so what? It is not the only vaccine available. What counts is vaccinating people with the available supplies. Now if AZ was the only vaccine available and large numbers of people were refusing it, so delaying herd immunity, that might be a problem. In saying that, if quantities of the vaccine are ending up being thrown away through lack of take up that IS a problem to me.

Just give it to me or anyone else who wants it instead. I guess there are a few million people other people in the UK who would welcome it, too.


So what?
There are millions of doses of this vaccine just lying there across Europe that could be saving lives because people are effing around playing politics.
Its disgusting IMO
Bordering on criminal

Rgds
 
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Aesma
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:39 am

Francoflier wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Here we consider a positivity rate of 0.9% to be out of control, but in Ontario 2-3% is reasonable ?


There may well be a difference on how that figure is calculated. It is very dependent on how much testing is done and who is tested.

Canada has done a lot better than many other Western nations in terms of containing the spread. It has a much lower number of cases and deaths per capita than France (where I believe you hail from) or other Europeans nations and certainly much less than its neighbor to the south.


I've checked the data for Ontario and it's more like 0,02% ! Single or double digits per 100000. They must not be testing much since they still are calculating a R at 0.88

Dunkirk the other day at 0.9% (900 cases by 100000), authorities say it's because of the carnival, people have been having parties despite it being cancelled.

People in the street : no, no, stop insulting us, we're not partying !
Couple days later : maybe we made some parties.
Couple days later : yeah OK we had huge parties all over, can't help it !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:54 am

astuteman wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Dano1977 wrote:
Yet you read in the papers, that people in mainland Europe are refusing the Astrazeneca vaccine because it is inferior. :roll:


wrong.

It was not cleared for 65+ due to no qualifying data available for that age group at the time it was certifyed for use.
Your rolling facts are thus "post facts". I suppose the Astrazeneca people will push the British data for 65+ towards the EMA.

Anyway as long as a(nother) product covering the 65+ group is available this limitation isn't really of relevance.
Just a question of who gets what.


Lack of qualifying data disappeared a very long time ago, as evidenced above.

I recounted my own personal experiences way back in the thread, with 85 year old plus residents in my wife's care home staying asymptomatic after having caught the new Covid strain, just 9 days after the first AZ jab.
The AZ vaccine produces an amazing improvement in the very old after just one jab

And yet I'm still seeing headlines like this

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/as ... d=msedgdhp

I have always been a "remainer" in the UK and was proud of our links to the EU.
But this is just "sick" in so many ways.

They don't want the AZ vaccine?
All I can say is f**k em. Let them die then, in their ignorance.


Reading English language articles you get the impression Macron is harping on the AZ vaccine every day, when in fact he said one thing, one time !

I didn't know he had so much power, neither did he probably.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Dano1977
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:57 am

Wife had her first dose of the AZ vaccine this morning.

Nice, orderly and quick at the vaccine hub (local Pharmacy) with plenty of volunteers to aid with parking and pre vaccine questions.

5 minute wait in the queue, and as the wifey wasn't driving let go straight away after the jab.

I know I keep going on about it. But the system in place from booking a slot for your vaccine down to the people at the vaccine hub is so bl--dy well organised and disciplined it's like a fine piece Swiss of watchmaking.
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.
 
marcelh
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:35 pm

astuteman wrote:
art wrote:
astuteman wrote:
They don't want the AZ vaccine?
All I can say is f**k em. Let them die then, in their ignorance.


They may still be refusing the AZ vaccine through failing to keep up with the data but so what? It is not the only vaccine available. What counts is vaccinating people with the available supplies. Now if AZ was the only vaccine available and large numbers of people were refusing it, so delaying herd immunity, that might be a problem. In saying that, if quantities of the vaccine are ending up being thrown away through lack of take up that IS a problem to me.

Just give it to me or anyone else who wants it instead. I guess there are a few million people other people in the UK who would welcome it, too.


So what?
There are millions of doses of this vaccine just lying there across Europe that could be saving lives because people are effing around playing politics.
Its disgusting IMO
Bordering on criminal

Rgds

And here in the Netherlands we are waiting for AZ to deliver the vaccins in time.
 
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Dano1977
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:53 pm

marcelh wrote:
astuteman wrote:
art wrote:

They may still be refusing the AZ vaccine through failing to keep up with the data but so what? It is not the only vaccine available. What counts is vaccinating people with the available supplies. Now if AZ was the only vaccine available and large numbers of people were refusing it, so delaying herd immunity, that might be a problem. In saying that, if quantities of the vaccine are ending up being thrown away through lack of take up that IS a problem to me.

Just give it to me or anyone else who wants it instead. I guess there are a few million people other people in the UK who would welcome it, too.


So what?
There are millions of doses of this vaccine just lying there across Europe that could be saving lives because people are effing around playing politics.
Its disgusting IMO
Bordering on criminal

Rgds

And here in the Netherlands we are waiting for AZ to deliver the vaccins in time.



Perhaps you can ask the Germans and French for some...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... t-yet-used

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... trazeneca/
The average EU official - he has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch.
 
marcelh
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:58 pm

Dano1977 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
astuteman wrote:

So what?
There are millions of doses of this vaccine just lying there across Europe that could be saving lives because people are effing around playing politics.
Its disgusting IMO
Bordering on criminal

Rgds

And here in the Netherlands we are waiting for AZ to deliver the vaccins in time.



Perhaps you can ask the Germans and French for some...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... t-yet-used

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... trazeneca/

They may send it asap.

But I also want to emphasise that the reason for stockpiling is the unreliable deliveries and announcements of AZ (at least in NL)
 
GDB
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:23 pm

Aesma wrote:
astuteman wrote:
WIederling wrote:

wrong.

It was not cleared for 65+ due to no qualifying data available for that age group at the time it was certifyed for use.
Your rolling facts are thus "post facts". I suppose the Astrazeneca people will push the British data for 65+ towards the EMA.

Anyway as long as a(nother) product covering the 65+ group is available this limitation isn't really of relevance.
Just a question of who gets what.


Lack of qualifying data disappeared a very long time ago, as evidenced above.

I recounted my own personal experiences way back in the thread, with 85 year old plus residents in my wife's care home staying asymptomatic after having caught the new Covid strain, just 9 days after the first AZ jab.
The AZ vaccine produces an amazing improvement in the very old after just one jab

And yet I'm still seeing headlines like this

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/as ... d=msedgdhp

I have always been a "remainer" in the UK and was proud of our links to the EU.
But this is just "sick" in so many ways.

They don't want the AZ vaccine?
All I can say is f**k em. Let them die then, in their ignorance.


Reading English language articles you get the impression Macron is harping on the AZ vaccine every day, when in fact he said one thing, one time !

I didn't know he had so much power, neither did he probably.


I have read articles in pro EU, anti UK government in general publications, which have been reporting that millions of AZ vaccines ARE being refused in Europe, as stated, just sitting there.
As for Macron, yes he does have influence, that an example of the technocratic French education and political system made such an ignorant remark likely had something to do with it being just after France's own Pasteur Institute had failed to made a vaccine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... id-vaccine

Cross Channel ignorant antipathy cuts both ways it seems.

Then there is the population, large numbers of whom seem to match US style conspiracy / anti science stances.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oliticians

(I recall some interviews with those 'Yellow Vest' types, in this case farmers, just as big science deniers as a US fossil fuel lobbyist).

Doing Johnson and the the rest of his lot PR for them, well done, give yourself a pat on the back;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... t-yet-used
Last edited by GDB on Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:35 pm

Of all places Gibraltar has taken the lead for best vaccinated population at 99 doses per hundred people!
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus- ... rSort=desc

Israel at 91.55 is starting to slow down.

I know I had a mild case, yesterday I called IT support and my agent had a bad case (he was younger than me, we chatted during reboots)
He had it for weeks, I for a day (before symptoms reduced)
I had no known permanent damage, he had permanent lung damage
I lost weight (as did everyone I know well enough to discuss Covid19), he gained 20 pounds (I lost the urge to eat, he became ravenous)

So this needs to be taken seriously. I will get vaccinated when i can.
Lightsaber
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:42 pm

GDB wrote:
Aesma wrote:
astuteman wrote:

Lack of qualifying data disappeared a very long time ago, as evidenced above.

I recounted my own personal experiences way back in the thread, with 85 year old plus residents in my wife's care home staying asymptomatic after having caught the new Covid strain, just 9 days after the first AZ jab.
The AZ vaccine produces an amazing improvement in the very old after just one jab

And yet I'm still seeing headlines like this

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/as ... d=msedgdhp

I have always been a "remainer" in the UK and was proud of our links to the EU.
But this is just "sick" in so many ways.

They don't want the AZ vaccine?
All I can say is f**k em. Let them die then, in their ignorance.


Reading English language articles you get the impression Macron is harping on the AZ vaccine every day, when in fact he said one thing, one time !

I didn't know he had so much power, neither did he probably.


I have read articles in pro EU, anti UK government in general publications, which have been reporting that millions of AZ vaccines ARE being refused in Europe, as stated, just sitting there.
As for Macron, yes he does have influence, that an example of the technocratic French education and political system made such an ignorant remark likely had something to do with it being just after France's own Pasteur Institute had failed to made a vaccine.
Cross Channel ignorant antipathy cuts both ways it seems.

Then there is the population, large numbers of whom seem to match US style conspiracy / anti science stances.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... liticiansI h

(I recall some interviews with those 'Yellow Vest' types, in this case farmers, just as big science deniers as a US fossil fuel lobbyist).

AstraZeneca promises to have no 2nd quarter shortfall:
https://news.yahoo.com/astrazeneca-deni ... 22556.html

What I read into this is the current shortfall cannot be made up until the 3rd quarter.

Merkel made her statement:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslond ... r-BB1e2yGV

I cannot find any evidence other than demand exceeds supply. It is a question of to which age group is allowed to get the vaccine. If you have sources on refusal to the point vaccine is returned, please share.
Better is the enemy of good enough. In my opinion the EU botched their buying and due to reasons outside of this thread is trying to cast shade on a vaccine associated with the UK.

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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 2:30 pm

US advice is the best vaccine is the one you can get earliest. AZ has not completed tests for the US yet, and it may be moot. If it had been available I would have taken it. The Johnson Johnson single shot may be approved for experimental use (read standard use) today, and we may be largely vaccinated before AZ is approved. It is still a scramble for even old people to get an appt but no where near as bad as several weeks ago.

The big problem, as I see it, is getting doses to vulnerable people in the developing world. AZ and Johnson may be vaccines of choice, along with the Chinese one. Good is good enough to stop a pandemic.
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WIederling
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 2:48 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I cannot find any evidence other than demand exceeds supply. It is a question of to which age group is allowed to get the vaccine. If you have sources on refusal to the point vaccine is returned, please share.
Better is the enemy of good enough. In my opinion the EU botched their buying and due to reasons outside of this thread is trying to cast shade on a vaccine associated with the UK.


Here in Germany there seems to be growing opposition to the AstraZeneka vaccine on a very emotional basis.
With scheduled jabs lapsing. ( How daft can you get? )
Seems to center around institutional care givers and hospital staff. ( Read the tweets reaching my wife: madness and hysterics. the same group presented as fanish following of Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg a couple of month ago when he made the rounds in talkshows and such.)

On occasion I have a feeling that there are forces acting in the background that would like to escalate the pandemic.
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marcelh
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:14 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I cannot find any evidence other than demand exceeds supply.

Earlier this week, AZ mentioned they can only deliver 4 million doses instead of the 6.2 million for the Netherlands.
In my opinion the EU botched their buying and due to reasons outside of this thread is trying to cast shade on a vaccine associated with the UK.
Lightsaber

It has nothing to do with the UK, but all with the way AZ has played this game, so your opinion is wrong. And the media likes to make it a “UK vs EU” discussion, which isn’t.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:54 pm

lightsaber wrote:


When asked whether she would accept the UK jab, the German Chancellor added: “I am 66 years old and I do not belong to the recommended group for AstraZeneca”.

Despite calls for Ms Merkel to take the jab, she stood firm in her decision to not get the vaccine, telling Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper: "I do not belong to the recommended age group for AstraZeneca.”


That sounds stunningly reasonable to me.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:02 pm

Had another pop at modelling the UK vaccine rollout last night - added limits for the vaccine centre bandwidth, assuming a linear ramp up from 3.25m to 4.25m. We've already demonstrated 3m before supply constraints hit, 3.25 seems reasonable. Back when the vaccination contracts were being doled out my best guess was 4.5m theoretical, but you'd never hit that due to no-shows. Notes:

1. The projected April 12th figures are right where they should be based on Government targets for that date. That's the point they say they will have offered the first dose to the first 9 priority groups. 32.5m People. Of course, there will be vaccine hesitancy - although 94% say they will have the vaccine per the Office for National Statistics. Against that, by the time the last over 50 is offered a vaccine, uneven rates mean many under 50's will have had one too. And the government will want some padding to ensure they meet that promise.

2. Last night I had 2,462,960 getting a dose on the week labelled W/E 22nd here - they're labelled a day out on the gov uk website, but the data for W/E 21st came out today (these weekly amounts are based actual vaccination dates, not reported date, so lag a little). So the actual figure is 2,435,356 which I'm really pleased with. Around 85K were second dose, so they're clearly starting them earlier than the 10 weeks I had.

3. We have excess supply, 8m, even without the Novavax vaccine, which will start hitting peoples arms "early April" per the CEO. Jannsen/J&J we don't get 'til early H2. So some vaccine diplomacy to be done. I hope we chuck a couple of million of the border to the Irish. Parity will help having a common travel area, and it will annoy the French and Germans (/jk).

4. 41.7m First dose and 29.5 second dose by end of May. 53m needed for (80%) herd immunity. So the end of July (5 weeks more first doses plus 3 weeks for decent effectiveness). Also will need a few million kids, hence AZ trialling down to 12 year olds.

Ps. Got a text through from the NHS saying I will shortly get my invite for vaccination at the racecourse. I'm about to pay my first visit there sober. Surprised through, I think I'm group 9.

Image
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:30 pm

BaconButty wrote:

3. We have excess supply, 8m, even without the Novavax vaccine, which will start hitting peoples arms "early April" per the CEO. Jannsen/J&J we don't get 'til early H2. So some vaccine diplomacy to be done. I hope we chuck a couple of million of the border to the Irish. Parity will help having a common travel area, and it will annoy the French and Germans (/jk).

Actually, that is brilliant politically and from a health perspective to open the boarder.

Pay to vaccinate Ireland! Make it happen in a way that is a gift to mend old wounds.

The only way North Ireland can open up is with Ireland.

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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:31 am

If it's true you could see it in another way : the UK has dramatically hurt its relationship with its biggest trading partner by going for "vaccine nationalism", all to end up with too many vaccines.

Meanwhile the EU is not giving anything to the UK regarding financial services...
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 4:16 am

Aesma wrote:
If it's true you could see it in another way : the UK has dramatically hurt its relationship with its biggest trading partner by going for "vaccine nationalism", all to end up with too many vaccines.

Meanwhile the EU is not giving anything to the UK regarding financial services...

This is why the UK should vaccinate, once they have a surplus, Ireland to create a dramatic increase in good will.

Everyone is doing vaccine nationalism. None of the Western powers is sending vaccines to Africa, South America, SouthEast Asia, or the Stans. However, I believe we need to, after we get all the medical staff vaccinated, focus on vaccinated bubbles. If we were talking diverting doses from both to less privileged, that would be combating vaccine nationalism. Arguing between EU and UK, that is both sides doing nationalism.

This summer, we should be able to have travel from Israel, UAE, Gibraltar, Seychelles, and hopefully the USA.

We have another thread on the EU strategy. They need to decide how they'll do a Green pass. It is almost getting too late to save the summer travel season. Like it or not, decisions must be made.

Israel has shown 85 doses per hundred is a bit sporty in the opening up. Not bad, but also not too conservative.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

The UK is increasing at 18.2 doses per hundred per month and looks pretty linear, at 28.57 doses per hundred
The EU is 5.3 doses per hundred per month and... still looks linear (not parabolic), at 6.82 doses per hundred
The US is at 13.4 doses per hundred per month and also looks linear at 20.63 doses per hundred
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus- ... rSort=desc

If that 85 doses per hundred holds, the UK can open up in 3.1 months or Early June
The US could open up in late July at the current rate
The EU Could open up in April of 2022... Errr...

We need everything to accelerate. We have upthread that Pfizer, Moderna, and AZ have all worked to increase production dramatically.
J&J/Jansen enters the market next week.
There was a link up thread on Sputnik V production increasing.
Then NovaVax enters the market soon.

This is an aviation forum. I want a return to normal air travel, or normal enough that the airlines can break even at least. Unfortunately, we are some time away from that.


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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:50 am

Received my first dose (AstraZeneca) today.
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GDB
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 1:53 pm

Aesma wrote:
If it's true you could see it in another way : the UK has dramatically hurt its relationship with its biggest trading partner by going for "vaccine nationalism", all to end up with too many vaccines.

Meanwhile the EU is not giving anything to the UK regarding financial services...


As much as I loathe the current UK government, face it, after all of their huge and lethal cock ups in all of this, the one thing they got right, by accident or design, is the vaccination effort and the EU made a mess.
While Johnson has a long history of lying about the EU, first as a risible 'commentator' in Brussels (which got him sacked even by the Eurospectic paper that employed him).
But the EU's petulance has given this chump of a PM valuable and possible politically lifesaving cover. Well done, give yourselves a hand.

And frankly, this success seems to have clouded the judgement of some, Macron with his stupid statement about the AZ vaccine, as ignorant as any Brexit fan about the EU, just because his Gallic pride (a 'pride' like CDG's who kept the UK out of the then EEC, who were the 'bad Europeans' then? France), was dented by the failure of the Pasteur Institute Vaccine.
Never mind what we in the UK think, what a stupid thing to do when France is already notorious for being more anti vaxx in general, plus your own nut jobs waiting in the wings, be it that Facist Le Pen or that old nut job Trot.

The German statement about the effectiveness of the AZ on older people was soon debunked, in particular in the real world of the mass vaccination program.
Plus the EU official overseeing the whole effort is a former German Minister who IIRC, was not a success in her posts there.

The UK government has said that any surplus will go to nations, developing ones, who need them the most.
It would be a hard sell politically and indeed morally (a new one for the Johnson government I admit!) instead to offer it to rich nations who already have millions of vaccines not taken up by their own population for reasons such as ignorance, conspiracy theory, anglo-phobia.
Offering the surplus to nations in need would be an example of, (whisper it), Liberty (from the threat of Covid), Equality (at least to a degree for poor nations in Covid protection) and actual, real world, Fraternity .
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:12 pm

It looks like the trials for AZ in the USA are a few weeks from wrapping up. Then a few more weeks to do the paperwork and have the committees decide if it is good enough and earn FDA approval:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/oxfor ... uxbndlbing

Of course this brings up supply concerns. I am just in favor of the "Royal Sampler" approach to vaccination that the more available (as long as they pass trials), the better. I'm very encouraged by the 85% effectiveness of AZ in keeping people out of the hospital.

I see Gibraltar is the first to pass a hundred doses per hundred people! Wow, cases just fell off a cliff (2nd link below to worldometer)

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus- ... rSort=desc

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... gibraltar/

That is amazing since while they still have a curfew, the elderly lockdown has been lifted:
https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news ... ns-loosen/

That link notes 2/3rds were 1st doses, 1/3rd second, so an easy added ~30 doses per hundred to build immunity. Well done!

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Received my first dose (AstraZeneca) today.

Congrats! This is great news. Thank you for looking out for others to help reduce transmission. It must also be a relief to yourself.

Lightsaber
Late edit:
I see the USA has already ordered 300 million doses of AZ way back in May of 2020:
https://nypost.com/2020/05/21/us-orders ... s-vaccine/

With the $1.2 billion to speed development, I wonder where the USA is in the priority list. Yes, I'm going to keep harping on seed money. That is still critical to get more vaccines out there.
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:29 pm

GDB wrote:
The UK government has said that any surplus will go to nations, developing ones, who need them the most.
It would be a hard sell politically and indeed morally (a new one for the Johnson government I admit!) instead to offer it to rich nations who already have millions of vaccines not taken up by their own population for reasons such as ignorance, conspiracy theory, anglo-phobia.
Offering the surplus to nations in need would be an example of, (whisper it), Liberty (from the threat of Covid), Equality (at least to a degree for poor nations in Covid protection) and actual, real world, Fraternity .

All wealthy nations owe the world massive quantities of donated doses. I agree, we are in this together as a Fraternity.

Although first, we need to open up our economies as IMHO the psychological and economic impacts will kill more people than the disease.
Israel showed 85+ doses per hundred are the minimum. When I look at how many people the fragile people I know would interact with, we (as in USA) are far away from achieving enough immunity to matter. I believe that is 75%+ vaccinated and that means figuring out a solution for the kids so they can hug grandma.

I'm simply perplexed why the poor takeup of vaccines in the EU. I know personally hundreds of people who would get the AZ, J&J, Pfizer, or Moderna tomorrow if available.

Israel seems to have a slow uptick in cases, so the 85+ doses per hundred seems to be quite boarderline for opening up. I think that needs to be 150+ based on my modeling (which I fully admit is 3rd rate vs. say the University of Chicago model).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

However, I would argue when the UK has a lot of surplus doses, to mend old wounds, they should give millions to Ireland. In part as North Ireland is only safe if Ireland is safe. Fraternity with the Irish would just be a wise policy and should have long term benefits in improved diplomatic relations.

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ArcticSEA
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:07 pm

lightsaber wrote:
All wealthy nations owe the world massive quantities of donated doses.

Sure, once every American is offered a vaccine, we'll talk.
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:00 pm

ArcticSEA wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
All wealthy nations owe the world massive quantities of donated doses.

Sure, once every American is offered a vaccine, we'll talk.

100% agree. The kids (eventually) too.

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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:13 pm

The strategy for vaccine delivery in the developing world has been spending several billion by several countries, much of it going to India for manufacturing vaccines. Also most developed countries have vastly over ordered which, oddly enough, is a good thing. We will begin seeing a lot of that supply shortly diverted to other parts of the world. The Pfizer, and Moderna to a lesser degree, would be not ideal for transport to rural and isolated areas throughout the developing world. AZ is cheap and OK. The J&J will be ideal, one shot and simple refrigeration. China and Russia are also leading in supplying developing nations. I see the 'me first' and 'screw other people' are speaking up. Then there are the refuse to wear a mask and anti-vaccine people. Interesting world.
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ArcticSEA
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:20 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I see the 'me first' and 'screw other people' are speaking up. Then there are the refuse to wear a mask and anti-vaccine people.

Yes very interesting considering I never said "me first", I said a country that orders vaccines with their taxpayers' money should prioritize their own citizens before anyone elses (which is what a reasonable, sane person would do), nor did I imply "screwing" anyone - in reality you are implying that, by suggesting a nation should vaccinate non-citizens before their own. I don't "refuse to wear a mask", I'm wearing one right now, nor am I anti-vax, I will get one as soon as I am eligible.

Otherwise, a great post.

We really need to stop generalizing.
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ArcticSEA
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:25 pm

Ireland starting to see effects of vaccine (scroll to the bottom); care home cases dropped to 91 from 482 in mid-Feb, 60 from 1000+ in healthcare workers:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/j ... uxbndlbing
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:17 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
..Then there are the refuse to wear a mask and anti-vaccine people. Interesting world.


Any stats on what % of US population are anti-vaxxers. My guess is 3%-5%. They will not take anyway. 60% will take eagerly, 20% willingly, 15% reluctantly. Focus should be on convincing those on the fence to achieve herd immunity.
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:02 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
..Then there are the refuse to wear a mask and anti-vaccine people. Interesting world.


Any stats on what % of US population are anti-vaxxers. My guess is 3%-5%. They will not take anyway. 60% will take eagerly, 20% willingly, 15% reluctantly. Focus should be on convincing those on the fence to achieve herd immunity.

This link cites two sources one one 32% won't get the vaccine (2nd link) another 37% won't get the vaccine, the other 40%:
https://time.com/5925467/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy/
https://www.foxnews.com/health/us-covid ... siding-cdc

I agree with your guess that 60% are eager in the US.

Now, that number is declining from September when 2/3rds said they wouldn't for a vaccine, so I expect adoption to steadily increase.
https://bgr.com/2020/09/05/coronavirus- ... esistance/

It won't be until the vaccine is required for activities (work, concerts) that many will accept a vaccine and increase the vaccine rate.

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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:21 am

Better article on the study to mix and match Pfizer and AZ vaccines:
https://news.yahoo.com/scientists-serio ... 44585.html
Interesting is that the NovaVax and J&J are planned to be added to the study:
Additional COVID-19 vaccines made by Novavax and Johnson & Johnson also focus on the spike proteins on the virus’s surface, and researchers expect to add them to the trial as it proceeds. (J&J’s vaccine candidate is designed to be administered as a single dose, but the company is testing whether a second dose, delivered 57 days after the first, would provide a higher level of immunity).

The initial findings will be released in June.
I personally would be much more willing to get certain vaccines knowing I would be on a priority list for mRNA later.

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GDB
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:28 am

lightsaber wrote:
GDB wrote:
The UK government has said that any surplus will go to nations, developing ones, who need them the most.
It would be a hard sell politically and indeed morally (a new one for the Johnson government I admit!) instead to offer it to rich nations who already have millions of vaccines not taken up by their own population for reasons such as ignorance, conspiracy theory, anglo-phobia.
Offering the surplus to nations in need would be an example of, (whisper it), Liberty (from the threat of Covid), Equality (at least to a degree for poor nations in Covid protection) and actual, real world, Fraternity .

All wealthy nations owe the world massive quantities of donated doses. I agree, we are in this together as a Fraternity.

Although first, we need to open up our economies as IMHO the psychological and economic impacts will kill more people than the disease.
Israel showed 85+ doses per hundred are the minimum. When I look at how many people the fragile people I know would interact with, we (as in USA) are far away from achieving enough immunity to matter. I believe that is 75%+ vaccinated and that means figuring out a solution for the kids so they can hug grandma.

I'm simply perplexed why the poor takeup of vaccines in the EU. I know personally hundreds of people who would get the AZ, J&J, Pfizer, or Moderna tomorrow if available.

Israel seems to have a slow uptick in cases, so the 85+ doses per hundred seems to be quite boarderline for opening up. I think that needs to be 150+ based on my modeling (which I fully admit is 3rd rate vs. say the University of Chicago model).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

However, I would argue when the UK has a lot of surplus doses, to mend old wounds, they should give millions to Ireland. In part as North Ireland is only safe if Ireland is safe. Fraternity with the Irish would just be a wise policy and should have long term benefits in improved diplomatic relations.

Lightsaber


If Ireland needs any, (no reports I have seen that it does), then yes, they are near and despite the stupidity of Brexit and it's practitioners, which is the not old wounds (ever heard of the Good Friday Agreement, seems the Johnson government and Brexit cheerleaders hasn't given the way they have been with bloody Brexit, the new US POTUS will want a word about that), it's a case of the close economic ties, that were there even during the worst of the Troubles, (or accurately, 'failed terror campaign', the IRA basically accepted the same N.I. power-sharing as rejected by both sides 25 years earlier), plus the movement between the two Islands with many close family ties etc.
Again that's historic and also well predates the late 60's to late 90's troubles, that would not be altruistic, more like good practical sense for both nations in suppressing Covid.

Ireland is doubly fortunate in being an island, not poor and having a relatively small population, I am really thinking about poorer nations with larger populations. Whoever needs them, whether they be Commonwealth nations or not.
One benchmark maybe, a series a scandals in Latin American nations, such as Peru, Argentina (think they'd take any off us?) and Ecuador, where there has been a series of scandals with higher ups, such as relatives of the government and their flunkies, have jumped the vaccine queue, even with high levels of infection in their populations.
A 'stop that shit' before you get any surplus might sharpen some minds in nations that do that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/25/worl ... ption.html
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:45 pm

FDA approves the single shot J&J vaccine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56226979
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:34 pm

ArcticSEA wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I see the 'me first' and 'screw other people' are speaking up. Then there are the refuse to wear a mask and anti-vaccine people.

Yes very interesting considering I never said "me first", I said a country that orders vaccines with their taxpayers' money should prioritize their own citizens before anyone elses (which is what a reasonable, sane person would do), nor did I imply "screwing" anyone - in reality you are implying that, by suggesting a nation should vaccinate non-citizens before their own. I don't "refuse to wear a mask", I'm wearing one right now, nor am I anti-vax, I will get one as soon as I am eligible.

Otherwise, a great post.

We really need to stop generalizing.


Happy to see we are largely in agreement. I reacted (and misinterpreted) to the "then we will talk". The US really misdid the early preparations for vaccine delivery for the rest of the world, with its America First talk. The planning, preparations, and even talk needed to be done in parallel with getting vaccines and getting America vaccinated. I think it is OK for the rich countries to take the lead in vaccinating their own populations, but only if reasonable steps are taken for that to ensure vaccine availability throughout the world.
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:38 pm

GDB wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
GDB wrote:
The UK government has said that any surplus will go to nations, developing ones, who need them the most.
It would be a hard sell politically and indeed morally (a new one for the Johnson government I admit!) instead to offer it to rich nations who already have millions of vaccines not taken up by their own population for reasons such as ignorance, conspiracy theory, anglo-phobia.
Offering the surplus to nations in need would be an example of, (whisper it), Liberty (from the threat of Covid), Equality (at least to a degree for poor nations in Covid protection) and actual, real world, Fraternity .

All wealthy nations owe the world massive quantities of donated doses. I agree, we are in this together as a Fraternity.

Although first, we need to open up our economies as IMHO the psychological and economic impacts will kill more people than the disease.
Israel showed 85+ doses per hundred are the minimum. When I look at how many people the fragile people I know would interact with, we (as in USA) are far away from achieving enough immunity to matter. I believe that is 75%+ vaccinated and that means figuring out a solution for the kids so they can hug grandma.

I'm simply perplexed why the poor takeup of vaccines in the EU. I know personally hundreds of people who would get the AZ, J&J, Pfizer, or Moderna tomorrow if available.

Israel seems to have a slow uptick in cases, so the 85+ doses per hundred seems to be quite boarderline for opening up. I think that needs to be 150+ based on my modeling (which I fully admit is 3rd rate vs. say the University of Chicago model).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

However, I would argue when the UK has a lot of surplus doses, to mend old wounds, they should give millions to Ireland. In part as North Ireland is only safe if Ireland is safe. Fraternity with the Irish would just be a wise policy and should have long term benefits in improved diplomatic relations.

Lightsaber


If Ireland needs any, (no reports I have seen that it does), then yes, they are near and despite the stupidity of Brexit and it's practitioners, which is the not old wounds (ever heard of the Good Friday Agreement, seems the Johnson government and Brexit cheerleaders hasn't given the way they have been with bloody Brexit, the new US POTUS will want a word about that), it's a case of the close economic ties, that were there even during the worst of the Troubles, (or accurately, 'failed terror campaign', the IRA basically accepted the same N.I. power-sharing as rejected by both sides 25 years earlier), plus the movement between the two Islands with many close family ties etc.
Again that's historic and also well predates the late 60's to late 90's troubles, that would not be altruistic, more like good practical sense for both nations in suppressing Covid.

Ireland is doubly fortunate in being an island, not poor and having a relatively small population, I am really thinking about poorer nations with larger populations. Whoever needs them, whether they be Commonwealth nations or not.
One benchmark maybe, a series a scandals in Latin American nations, such as Peru, Argentina (think they'd take any off us?) and Ecuador, where there has been a series of scandals with higher ups, such as relatives of the government and their flunkies, have jumped the vaccine queue, even with high levels of infection in their populations.
A 'stop that shit' before you get any surplus might sharpen some minds in nations that do that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/25/worl ... ption.html


Argentina would not qualify for any vaccine donations from official organizations based on formal income status. I guess bilaterally anything is possible but I don't think any country in the world is in the mood to be giving away vaccines, much less to places like Argentina over at least 150 other nations out there. I'm not sure if Peru or Ecuador qualify either acually. After all it is "only" 97 nations that can qualify for the UN program. In any event, Argentina would never accept any vaccines under dictated terms. it may take another year until the local vaccine comes out, but certainly being criticized of corruption by countries who have absolutely nothing to teach about pandemic prevention would not go down well.
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ArcticSEA
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:22 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I think it is OK for the rich countries to take the lead in vaccinating their own populations, but only if reasonable steps are taken for that to ensure vaccine availability throughout the world.

I agree, but there will be a time for that.
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WIederling
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Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 4:04 pm

Francoflier wrote:
FDA approves the single shot J&J vaccine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56226979


an emergency approval, risk is with the state not the manufacturer, right?
Murphy is an optimist
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:28 pm

WIederling wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
FDA approves the single shot J&J vaccine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56226979


an emergency approval, risk is with the state not the manufacturer, right?


You are getting a free vaccine, don’t come whining if it kills you or renders you unable to conceive, and you’re welcome.
This is what emergency use means.


It’s March and Israel’s numbers haven’t fallen off a cliff yet.
Decreasing numbers consistent with restrictions similar as in other countries, but no spectacular vaccine effect yet.
Shall we be concerned if their numbers start to rise again?
Will they rise?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 5:52 pm

WIederling wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
FDA approves the single shot J&J vaccine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56226979


an emergency approval, risk is with the state not the manufacturer, right?


Yes. Those areas demanding the manufacturer take the risk, the manufacturer is delaying the start of certification and making sure they dot every i and cross every t (delays).

ArcticSEA wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I think it is OK for the rich countries to take the lead in vaccinating their own populations, but only if reasonable steps are taken for that to ensure vaccine availability throughout the world.

I agree, but there will be a time for that.

100% agree. If our vaccination rate isn't accelerated, I will personally fly to DC to protest. Latest case rate shows that the 85 doses per hundred, which is what Israel had when they opened up, isn't enough:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/


My opinion is based on a high vaccination rate must happen before a nation surrenders and the negative consequences I have personally seen that is, in my opinion worse than death (I already posted, so I will not repeat).
For Israel, use the 7 day average and there is an uptick. Not bad, but as few countries have the vaccination rate of israel (doses administered as a fraction of the population), Israel will have far fewer consequences of opening earlier than a higher population nation that just cannot make up their error by continuing to vaccinate quickly. So that begs when the countries with lots of vaccines can start to share?

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

The green pass with continued covid19 rules isn't quite the experience some wanted. Bummer, I think a green pass must be required and I'm a libertarian. We cannot have large gatherings of un-vaccinated. Yesterday I went to a large community park for the first time in 4 weeks (I had coronavirus, so I was quarantined for a while), wow was it 3x more crowded than 4 weeks ago (same weather). What was most striking was the number of elderly with families there. Before I'd see the same group of over age 75 people and a few over age 65. This time the park had a huge number of over age 65 and 75. I almost was bulldozed by a man I would guess was 85 doing his power walk that I had never seen before (I would have remembered him as he was just going the way he had chosen to go with no diversion around other people.) My opinion is that Southern California is losing containment. We need a green pass to keep this from exploding. Now the 2nd link shows California is doing well. I lack weeks of observation, other than via web cams, as I did exactly the quarantine my doctors prescribed. But it was a shock coming out of quarantine to see how much busier everywhere is now. Traffic on the streets on a Saturday was far heavier and everywhere had far more people, in particular the elderly and their families. I aborted going to the farmer's market as there were more people in the queue to get in than I was comfortable queueing with. You can think I'm paranoid, but I'm having dinner with two 80 year old relatives tonight who only had the 1st dose of vaccine 11 days ago as I do not approve of this state's priority order nor effectiveness in getting out the vaccine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/gr ... r-BB1e5MjM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... alifornia/

Now I was... chastised for saying I would party six weeks after vaccines were commonly available. Well, vaccines are not commonly available and I see the lockdown discipline discipline going . Long before I'll go out and party, we're going to be in trouble. This just means we (as in USA) must vaccinate as quickly as possible to mitigate consequences.

Ugh, this makes my personal choice on when to vaccinate tough. One doctor advised me to get vaccinated within 12 weeks (84 days) another within 90 days.. meh, same advice. They both advised waiting, but that doesn't matter as I am not in a group prioritized to have a vaccine within 6 weeks anyway. :bomb: So then it becomes a question of J&J, mRNA, or possibly even NovaVax.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/ ... -wait-for/
How long of a delay can we expect in this case? Well, let's use the U.K. trial as a guide. Novavax launched that one in late September and reported interim data four months later. If the U.S. trial follows that timeline, we may expect data in late April.
So data available late April, the FDA has been working round the clock to approve data in 22 days. I'm a cynic that always expects delays. So my expectation for NovaVax in the US is late May and a bit later for the EU (just my opinion on how long each country's approval process takes).


NovaVax has already asked for approval in the UK:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/novavaxs-c ... 1611876411
How long does the UK typically take? I would think approval would be soon. With 3 million doses being 5% of the population (apprx.),

Results look good:
https://news.yahoo.com/experts-novavax- ... 00122.html

The best I could find is "should be approved in a couple of weeks", but I am embarrassed by how clickbaity the article is, even though if you read all the caveats, it has good information (you just have to wade through far too many advertisements):
https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/he ... ext-UK-evg

More vaccines means more factories producing and for all of us, that is only a good thing. I'm a proponent of AZ or J&J + mRNA *after* research shows that works. This allows the maximum number to be vaccinated early and people will be much more willing to take these two vaccines if that is the only gateway to the mRNA. But first testing... I'm only aware of the UK doing this research (links posted before).

But we need to help the world. It will just take months. For example, if all production meets promise, most of NovaVax's production will go to the UN effort.
Pfizer and Moderna aren't great candidates for low infrastructure distribution, but J&J is yet J&J is needed to solve rural distribution in the USA and Europe if people are AZ hesitant (stupid politicians should shut up, you aren't solving the problem).

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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BaconButty
Posts: 889
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:42 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:05 pm

Four encouraging charts
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 42272?s=19
https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/13 ... 65186?s=19

The gist is that hospital admissions and deaths are falling faster in over 85s than 65-84 year olds, and faster again than under 65s. The vaccine effect is kicking in!

The headline figures:

Weekly Fall in hospitalisations
Over 85 36%
65-84 34%
Under 65 18%

Weekly Fall in deaths
Over 85 50%
75-84 47%
65-74 41%
Under 65 20%
Down with that sort of thing!

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