an emergency approval, risk is with the state not the manufacturer, right?
Yes. Those areas demanding the manufacturer take the risk, the manufacturer is delaying the start of certification and making sure they dot every i and cross every t (delays).
I think it is OK for the rich countries to take the lead in vaccinating their own populations, but only if reasonable steps are taken for that to ensure vaccine availability throughout the world.
I agree, but there will be a time for that.
100% agree. If our vaccination rate isn't accelerated, I will personally fly to DC to protest. Latest case rate shows that the 85 doses per hundred, which is what Israel had when they opened up, isn't enough:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/
My opinion is based on a high vaccination rate must happen before a nation surrenders and the negative consequences I have personally seen that is, in my opinion worse than death (I already posted, so I will not repeat).
For Israel, use the 7 day average and there is an uptick. Not bad, but as few countries have the vaccination rate of israel (doses administered as a fraction of the population), Israel will have far fewer consequences of opening earlier than a higher population nation that just cannot make up their error by continuing to vaccinate quickly. So that begs when the countries with lots of vaccines can start to share? https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
The green pass with continued covid19 rules isn't quite the experience some wanted. Bummer, I think a green pass must be required and I'm a libertarian. We cannot have large gatherings of un-vaccinated. Yesterday I went to a large community park for the first time in 4 weeks (I had coronavirus, so I was quarantined for a while), wow was it 3x more crowded than 4 weeks ago (same weather). What was most striking was the number of elderly with families there. Before I'd see the same group of over age 75 people and a few over age 65. This time the park had a huge number of over age 65 and 75. I almost was bulldozed by a man I would guess was 85 doing his power walk that I had never seen before (I would have remembered him as he was just going the way he had chosen to go with no diversion around other people.) My opinion is that Southern California is losing containment. We need a green pass to keep this from exploding. Now the 2nd link shows California is doing well. I lack weeks of observation, other than via web cams, as I did exactly the quarantine my doctors prescribed. But it was a shock coming out of quarantine to see how much busier everywhere is now. Traffic on the streets on a Saturday was far heavier and everywhere had far more people, in particular the elderly and their families. I aborted going to the farmer's market as there were more people in the queue to get in than I was comfortable queueing with. You can think I'm paranoid, but I'm having dinner with two 80 year old relatives tonight who only had the 1st dose of vaccine 11 days ago as I do not approve of this state's priority order nor effectiveness in getting out the vaccine.https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/gr ... r-BB1e5MjMhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... alifornia/
Now I was... chastised for saying I would party six weeks after vaccines were commonly available. Well, vaccines are not commonly available and I see the lockdown discipline discipline going . Long before I'll go out and party, we're going to be in trouble. This just means we (as in USA) must vaccinate as quickly as possible to mitigate consequences.
Ugh, this makes my personal choice on when to vaccinate tough. One doctor advised me to get vaccinated within 12 weeks (84 days) another within 90 days.. meh, same advice. They both advised waiting, but that doesn't matter as I am not in a group prioritized to have a vaccine within 6 weeks anyway.
So then it becomes a question of J&J, mRNA, or possibly even NovaVax. https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/ ... -wait-for/How long of a delay can we expect in this case? Well, let's use the U.K. trial as a guide. Novavax launched that one in late September and reported interim data four months later. If the U.S. trial follows that timeline, we may expect data in late April.
So data available late April, the FDA has been working round the clock to approve data in 22 days. I'm a cynic that always expects delays. So my expectation for NovaVax in the US is late May and a bit later for the EU (just my opinion on how long each country's approval process takes).
NovaVax has already asked for approval in the UK:https://www.wsj.com/articles/novavaxs-c ... 1611876411
How long does the UK typically take? I would think approval would be soon. With 3 million doses being 5% of the population (apprx.),
Results look good:https://news.yahoo.com/experts-novavax- ... 00122.html
The best I could find is "should be approved in a couple of weeks", but I am embarrassed by how clickbaity the article is, even though if you read all the caveats, it has good information (you just have to wade through far too many advertisements):https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/he ... ext-UK-evg
More vaccines means more factories producing and for all of us, that is only a good thing. I'm a proponent of AZ or J&J + mRNA *after* research shows that works. This allows the maximum number to be vaccinated early and people will be much more willing to take these two vaccines if that is the only gateway to the mRNA. But first testing... I'm only aware of the UK doing this research (links posted before).
But we need to help the world. It will just take months. For example, if all production meets promise, most of NovaVax's production will go to the UN effort.
Pfizer and Moderna aren't great candidates for low infrastructure distribution, but J&J is yet J&J is needed to solve rural distribution in the USA and Europe if people are AZ hesitant (stupid politicians should shut up, you aren't solving the problem).