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c933103
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:16 pm

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news/first-official-data-shows-unvaccinated-make-up-majority-of-israel-s-covid-deaths-1.9586396

More data from Israel. I saw another article about the SA variant over there - I guess that is what the scientists are freaking out about now.

So am I :scared:

If the vaccine can prevent 60% cases then that wouldn't enough for any R0 over 2.5
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:16 pm

c933103 wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news/first-official-data-shows-unvaccinated-make-up-majority-of-israel-s-covid-deaths-1.9586396

More data from Israel. I saw another article about the SA variant over there - I guess that is what the scientists are freaking out about now.

So am I :scared:

If the vaccine can prevent 60% cases then that wouldn't enough for any R0 over 2.5

60% to prevent infection. The vaccines still reduce viral loading.

Unvaccinated, Ro is the Ro, I'll use 4.0

Vaccinated, 60% effective, Ro = .4*4 or 1.6 but vaccinated are far less likely to spread. Some reduced Ro. Perhaps 0.8

The vaccinated have reduced viral loading and milder cases still. No (or very few) deaths and few hospitalizations.


We'll do need a booster ASAP. With Pfizer already in testing, Israel should have it in 3 months. They should be done with round 1 of vaccine. Considering Israel is planning to innoculate everyone 4x doses per year, :yawn:
https://news.yahoo.com/israel-looking-b ... 20804.html

My modeling shows such a drop among the vaccinated, it will be the unvaccinated infecting them for the most part. The unvaccinated are in deep trouble. The vacinated will get it, spread it a bit, but won't really have an issue except for a few cases. The unvaccinated will fill up the hospitals.

Lightsaber
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c933103
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Vaccinated, 60% effective, Ro = .4*4 or 1.6 but vaccinated are far less likely to spread. Some reduced Ro. Perhaps 0.8

The vaccinated have reduced viral loading and milder cases still. No (or very few) deaths and few hospitalizations.



Is there any data on that?
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33320052/
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/945433
There are some articles that suggest it might not be the case.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news/first-official-data-shows-unvaccinated-make-up-majority-of-israel-s-covid-deaths-1.9586396

More data from Israel. I saw another article about the SA variant over there - I guess that is what the scientists are freaking out about now.

So am I :scared:

If the vaccine can prevent 60% cases then that wouldn't enough for any R0 over 2.5

60% to prevent infection. The vaccines still reduce viral loading.

Unvaccinated, Ro is the Ro, I'll use 4.0

Vaccinated, 60% effective, Ro = .4*4 or 1.6 but vaccinated are far less likely to spread. Some reduced Ro. Perhaps 0.8

The vaccinated have reduced viral loading and milder cases still. No (or very few) deaths and few hospitalizations.


We'll do need a booster ASAP. With Pfizer already in testing, Israel should have it in 3 months. They should be done with round 1 of vaccine. Considering Israel is planning to innoculate everyone 4x doses per year, :yawn:
https://news.yahoo.com/israel-looking-b ... 20804.html

My modeling shows such a drop among the vaccinated, it will be the unvaccinated infecting them for the most part. The unvaccinated are in deep trouble. The vacinated will get it, spread it a bit, but won't really have an issue except for a few cases. The unvaccinated will fill up the hospitals.

Lightsaber


The reduction of viral load would be an advantage but is there any evidence that an asymptomatic non vaccinated individual has a higher load of virus than an asymptomatic vaccinated individual or is this just a sales pitch?

Israel’s downtrend in infections has stopped and it’s showing signs of reversal into an uptrend to form a new wave, much like Europe.

Little to no data coming from Israel on the incidence of vaccinated among COVID-19 deaths, while most 50+ have been vaccinated.

So far there is no evidence that vaccines are having the desired effect at the macro scale.

As my two cents, I think that things may start to look rosier heading into the summer as the virus weakens due to environmental factors, much like influenza weakens in the warmer months.
Vaccines may then get the credit and we may see premature and excessive reopenings leading to new waves in the fall and winter.
By Christmas, we could be back to square 1, new variants could be blamed instead of vaccines not being effective.
By this time in 2022, the right questions will start to be asked about the vaccines.
Vaccine OEM’s will tout improved vaccines, people will eventually get fed up of having needles stuck in their arms and stop showing up.

Aren’t we banking too much on the vaccines?
Isn’t this what is prompting Texas and Mississippi to lift mask requirements prematurely?
As long as no vaccine is being wasted and there are more arms available to be injected than there are doses available, what is the purpose of pro-vax PR, including by many on this forum?
How long until there are enough doses for 8 billion people?
How long until the EU and US stop people from the other side of the pond from entering the same way they would someone from North Korea?
Last edited by CaptainHaresh on Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:16 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... nd=premium

A long and detailed discussion of Pfizer. A lot of previously undisclosed information, much of it from the Pfizer CEO. A lot of information about how and why it is being distributed. Also a discussion of why Israel is getting a large amount, amongst other things they are providing a lot of data on infections, spreading rates etc.
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:10 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
If the vaccine can prevent 60% cases then that wouldn't enough for any R0 over 2.5

60% to prevent infection. The vaccines still reduce viral loading.

Unvaccinated, Ro is the Ro, I'll use 4.0

Vaccinated, 60% effective, Ro = .4*4 or 1.6 but vaccinated are far less likely to spread. Some reduced Ro. Perhaps 0.8

The vaccinated have reduced viral loading and milder cases still. No (or very few) deaths and few hospitalizations.


We'll do need a booster ASAP. With Pfizer already in testing, Israel should have it in 3 months. They should be done with round 1 of vaccine. Considering Israel is planning to innoculate everyone 4x doses per year, :yawn:
https://news.yahoo.com/israel-looking-b ... 20804.html

My modeling shows such a drop among the vaccinated, it will be the unvaccinated infecting them for the most part. The unvaccinated are in deep trouble. The vacinated will get it, spread it a bit, but won't really have an issue except for a few cases. The unvaccinated will fill up the hospitals.

Lightsaber


The reduction of viral load would be an advantage but is there any evidence that an asymptomatic non vaccinated individual has a higher load of virus than an asymptomatic vaccinated individual or is this just a sales pitch?

Israel’s downtrend in infections has stopped and it’s showing signs of reversal into an uptrend to form a new wave, much like Europe.

Little to no data coming from Israel on the incidence of vaccinated among COVID-19 deaths, while most 50+ have been vaccinated.

So far there is no evidence that vaccines are having the desired effect at the macro scale.


I posted links above on the 80% reduction in positive tests in a hospital.

On a macro scale, Israel is easy numbers, using rounded numbers on prior links:

30% twin doses, 94% effectiveness (6% get Covid19 (

20% one dose, 60% effective, 80% estimate reduction transmission based on link above testing hospital staff.

50% no Vaccine

Using Ro=4
(% pop*risk to get infected)*(risk_fullvac*% pop+risk_1dose*%poo+%pio_unvac)* Ro

Taking second term:(30%*.06+20%*.2+.5*1)*4

We should expect Ro=2.232 based on current vaccine demographics Most risk from unvaccinated.

So full vac effective Ro=2.232*.06=.134
1 dose Ro=2.232*.4=.893
Unvac Ro=2.232, but if from another unvac Ro=4

Data has numerous times been presented on the huge benefits for the vaccinated.

I posted before that herd immunity does not mean zero cases. For the vaccinated, they have the start of herd immunity. As their cases won't be as bad, they should open up.

The issue us the wildfire spread among the unvaccinated.

I posted a link before of unvaccinated misbehaving (groups without masks from multiple families) during the last holiday. With my estimated Ro of 2.232, of course the virus is spreading and growing!

Did you see the previous link by others that the dying are the unvaccinated?

It is simple, if you do not get sick, you do not spread the disease. By the time we have enough data to prove this, it will be over.

The #1 benefit of vaccines is slowing the spread.

Until 75%+ are fully vaccinated, behavior matters more than vaccination.

Oh well, this is why I won't worry about unvaccinated six weeks after vaccines are commonly available. I'll be in the vaccinated gang in the reduced risk camp.

Lightsaber
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:11 pm

A summary of benefits of why BC going delayed 2 dose, includes reference to hospital staff having 80% less positivity, thus much less likely to transmit:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/science/ ... 5252Cen-sg


We have enough data on vaccines to know:
1. They work reducing infection
2. They work to reduce spread
3. We need 75%+ vaccinated to get Ro< 1

Lightsaber
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CaptainHaresh
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:33 pm

lightsaber wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
60% to prevent infection. The vaccines still reduce viral loading.

Unvaccinated, Ro is the Ro, I'll use 4.0

Vaccinated, 60% effective, Ro = .4*4 or 1.6 but vaccinated are far less likely to spread. Some reduced Ro. Perhaps 0.8

The vaccinated have reduced viral loading and milder cases still. No (or very few) deaths and few hospitalizations.


We'll do need a booster ASAP. With Pfizer already in testing, Israel should have it in 3 months. They should be done with round 1 of vaccine. Considering Israel is planning to innoculate everyone 4x doses per year, :yawn:
https://news.yahoo.com/israel-looking-b ... 20804.html

My modeling shows such a drop among the vaccinated, it will be the unvaccinated infecting them for the most part. The unvaccinated are in deep trouble. The vacinated will get it, spread it a bit, but won't really have an issue except for a few cases. The unvaccinated will fill up the hospitals.

Lightsaber


The reduction of viral load would be an advantage but is there any evidence that an asymptomatic non vaccinated individual has a higher load of virus than an asymptomatic vaccinated individual or is this just a sales pitch?

Israel’s downtrend in infections has stopped and it’s showing signs of reversal into an uptrend to form a new wave, much like Europe.

Little to no data coming from Israel on the incidence of vaccinated among COVID-19 deaths, while most 50+ have been vaccinated.

So far there is no evidence that vaccines are having the desired effect at the macro scale.


I posted links above on the 80% reduction in positive tests in a hospital.

On a macro scale, Israel is easy numbers, using rounded numbers on prior links:

30% twin doses, 94% effectiveness (6% get Covid19 (

20% one dose, 60% effective, 80% estimate reduction transmission based on link above testing hospital staff.

50% no Vaccine

Using Ro=4
(% pop*risk to get infected)*(risk_fullvac*% pop+risk_1dose*%poo+%pio_unvac)* Ro

Taking second term:(30%*.06+20%*.2+.5*1)*4

We should expect Ro=2.232 based on current vaccine demographics Most risk from unvaccinated.

So full vac effective Ro=2.232*.06=.134
1 dose Ro=2.232*.4=.893
Unvac Ro=2.232, but if from another unvac Ro=4

Data has numerous times been presented on the huge benefits for the vaccinated.

I posted before that herd immunity does not mean zero cases. For the vaccinated, they have the start of herd immunity. As their cases won't be as bad, they should open up.

The issue us the wildfire spread among the unvaccinated.

I posted a link before of unvaccinated misbehaving (groups without masks from multiple families) during the last holiday. With my estimated Ro of 2.232, of course the virus is spreading and growing!

Did you see the previous link by others that the dying are the unvaccinated?

It is simple, if you do not get sick, you do not spread the disease. By the time we have enough data to prove this, it will be over.

The #1 benefit of vaccines is slowing the spread.

Until 75%+ are fully vaccinated, behavior matters more than vaccination.

Oh well, this is why I won't worry about unvaccinated six weeks after vaccines are commonly available. I'll be in the vaccinated gang in the reduced risk camp.

Lightsaber


There is a notable inconsistency between the data that is provided in your links to private media articles and the data provided in the Israel Health ministry dashboard.

Over the past month, daily new severe cases have stagnated at a mean of 108, despite the vulnerable age groups being almost fully vaccinated at over 90%.

The health ministry data corroborates that the vaccines are not as effective as advertised.
Certainly not anywhere near the 95% mark.

datadashboard.health.gov.il
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:47 am

CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:

The reduction of viral load would be an advantage but is there any evidence that an asymptomatic non vaccinated individual has a higher load of virus than an asymptomatic vaccinated individual or is this just a sales pitch?

Israel’s downtrend in infections has stopped and it’s showing signs of reversal into an uptrend to form a new wave, much like Europe.

Little to no data coming from Israel on the incidence of vaccinated among COVID-19 deaths, while most 50+ have been vaccinated.

So far there is no evidence that vaccines are having the desired effect at the macro scale.


I posted links above on the 80% reduction in positive tests in a hospital.

On a macro scale, Israel is easy numbers, using rounded numbers on prior links:

30% twin doses, 94% effectiveness (6% get Covid19 (

20% one dose, 60% effective, 80% estimate reduction transmission based on link above testing hospital staff.

50% no Vaccine

Using Ro=4
(% pop*risk to get infected)*(risk_fullvac*% pop+risk_1dose*%poo+%pio_unvac)* Ro

Taking second term:(30%*.06+20%*.2+.5*1)*4

We should expect Ro=2.232 based on current vaccine demographics Most risk from unvaccinated.

So full vac effective Ro=2.232*.06=.134
1 dose Ro=2.232*.4=.893
Unvac Ro=2.232, but if from another unvac Ro=4

Data has numerous times been presented on the huge benefits for the vaccinated.

I posted before that herd immunity does not mean zero cases. For the vaccinated, they have the start of herd immunity. As their cases won't be as bad, they should open up.

The issue us the wildfire spread among the unvaccinated.

I posted a link before of unvaccinated misbehaving (groups without masks from multiple families) during the last holiday. With my estimated Ro of 2.232, of course the virus is spreading and growing!

Did you see the previous link by others that the dying are the unvaccinated?

It is simple, if you do not get sick, you do not spread the disease. By the time we have enough data to prove this, it will be over.

The #1 benefit of vaccines is slowing the spread.

Until 75%+ are fully vaccinated, behavior matters more than vaccination.

Oh well, this is why I won't worry about unvaccinated six weeks after vaccines are commonly available. I'll be in the vaccinated gang in the reduced risk camp.

Lightsaber


There is a notable inconsistency between the data that is provided in your links to private media articles and the data provided in the Israel Health ministry dashboard.

Over the past month, daily new severe cases have stagnated at a mean of 108, despite the vulnerable age groups being almost fully vaccinated at over 90%.

The health ministry data corroborates that the vaccines are not as effective as advertised.
Certainly not anywhere near the 95% mark.

datadashboard.health.gov.il

I tried that link, it wouldn't load. I'll try it again tomorrow.

Due to the rise in cases, Israel is looking into revoking the green pass:
https://www.jewishaz.com/us_worldnews/i ... 7a17a.html

“There is a huge difference between a basic reproduction number that is below 1, which means a declining epidemic, and higher than 1, which means an expanding epidemic,” said Kisch, speaking to Ynet. “If the R number rises significantly, we will not approve another reopening, we will recommend halting it.”

Diagnosed cases of the virus, which had been on the decline since Feb. 21, began to rise on Monday with more than 4,265 new cases reported since then. However, the number of serious cases, which now stand at 717, has decreased since Feb. 7.

Compare that to The Health Ministry data said 1,008 patients are in serious condition
https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-case-n ... rus-wards/
“Today I had to resuscitate a 47-year-old patient and a 51-year-old. These are not exceptions, these are the average ages of patients in our wards now” Dr. Gadi Segal, the head of internal medicine at the hospital, told Army Radio. “I believe this is due to the lower vaccine distribution among these age groups.”


So yes, many serious cases, just younger. Only those vaccinated 1st dose by January 20th can be in the group with full protection (94%). That was 36 out of a hundred. The vaccine doesn't do a thing until 12 days after first dose (doctors like to say 2 weeks) and then it is about the 60%. It is only two weeks+ after dose two the high effectiveness occurs.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Until two weeks after the 2nd dose, there will be problems. It turns out opening up at 85 doses per hundred was too early. Bummer. Lesson learned.
I know my age range, call it 45 to 55 years of age, has a severe problem. Among my friends I know several who had Coronavirus induced heart attacks (for all, their first).

I'm having the hardest time explaining to friends that it takes six weeks for the vaccines to do their magic. So I'm not seeing the inconsistency, there weren't that many vaccinated six weeks ago.

So perhaps I should have calculated an effective Ro of 2.5 for the population. Can we agree it is far above one? The data all supports that.
But all the indicators are the issues are in the less vaccinated population. In particular the middle aged (like myself); those who think one jab is enough are getting a rude shock.

From what you describe, it looks like our data agrees. We are just drawing two different conclusions. What time lag are you using when looking at the data?

My conclusion is not enough people in Israel are vaccinated. It looks like the 150 doses per hundred is what is needed to open up. :wideeyed:
But with the swift drop in issues in the elderly and all the sources noting the issue has shifted down to the middle aged, bummer. Israel needs another 6 million doses or so to fix this problem.

Lightsaber
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:57 am

EMA to rule on the J&J vaccine on March 11th:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN2AW0W8

The article notes CureVax and NovaVax "reviews are underway" which doesn't give much indication when they could be approved.

The more vaccines the better. Partially as due to getting out the quantity needed as well as different protection levels.

Bhurat Biotech 81% effective in interim analysis:
https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SL2N2L21XX

I cannot help but ask, how did it do in Brazil or South Africa? This is encouraging results overall.

Zimbabwe has already approved the indian vaccine:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zi ... r-BB1eeKrL


Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
CaptainHaresh
Posts: 58
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:49 pm

Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I posted links above on the 80% reduction in positive tests in a hospital.

On a macro scale, Israel is easy numbers, using rounded numbers on prior links:

30% twin doses, 94% effectiveness (6% get Covid19 (

20% one dose, 60% effective, 80% estimate reduction transmission based on link above testing hospital staff.

50% no Vaccine

Using Ro=4
(% pop*risk to get infected)*(risk_fullvac*% pop+risk_1dose*%poo+%pio_unvac)* Ro

Taking second term:(30%*.06+20%*.2+.5*1)*4

We should expect Ro=2.232 based on current vaccine demographics Most risk from unvaccinated.

So full vac effective Ro=2.232*.06=.134
1 dose Ro=2.232*.4=.893
Unvac Ro=2.232, but if from another unvac Ro=4

Data has numerous times been presented on the huge benefits for the vaccinated.

I posted before that herd immunity does not mean zero cases. For the vaccinated, they have the start of herd immunity. As their cases won't be as bad, they should open up.

The issue us the wildfire spread among the unvaccinated.

I posted a link before of unvaccinated misbehaving (groups without masks from multiple families) during the last holiday. With my estimated Ro of 2.232, of course the virus is spreading and growing!

Did you see the previous link by others that the dying are the unvaccinated?

It is simple, if you do not get sick, you do not spread the disease. By the time we have enough data to prove this, it will be over.

The #1 benefit of vaccines is slowing the spread.

Until 75%+ are fully vaccinated, behavior matters more than vaccination.

Oh well, this is why I won't worry about unvaccinated six weeks after vaccines are commonly available. I'll be in the vaccinated gang in the reduced risk camp.

Lightsaber


There is a notable inconsistency between the data that is provided in your links to private media articles and the data provided in the Israel Health ministry dashboard.

Over the past month, daily new severe cases have stagnated at a mean of 108, despite the vulnerable age groups being almost fully vaccinated at over 90%.

The health ministry data corroborates that the vaccines are not as effective as advertised.
Certainly not anywhere near the 95% mark.

datadashboard.health.gov.il

I tried that link, it wouldn't load. I'll try it again tomorrow.

Due to the rise in cases, Israel is looking into revoking the green pass:
https://www.jewishaz.com/us_worldnews/i ... 7a17a.html

“There is a huge difference between a basic reproduction number that is below 1, which means a declining epidemic, and higher than 1, which means an expanding epidemic,” said Kisch, speaking to Ynet. “If the R number rises significantly, we will not approve another reopening, we will recommend halting it.”

Diagnosed cases of the virus, which had been on the decline since Feb. 21, began to rise on Monday with more than 4,265 new cases reported since then. However, the number of serious cases, which now stand at 717, has decreased since Feb. 7.

Compare that to The Health Ministry data said 1,008 patients are in serious condition
https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-case-n ... rus-wards/
“Today I had to resuscitate a 47-year-old patient and a 51-year-old. These are not exceptions, these are the average ages of patients in our wards now” Dr. Gadi Segal, the head of internal medicine at the hospital, told Army Radio. “I believe this is due to the lower vaccine distribution among these age groups.”


So yes, many serious cases, just younger. Only those vaccinated 1st dose by January 20th can be in the group with full protection (94%). That was 36 out of a hundred. The vaccine doesn't do a thing until 12 days after first dose (doctors like to say 2 weeks) and then it is about the 60%. It is only two weeks+ after dose two the high effectiveness occurs.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Until two weeks after the 2nd dose, there will be problems. It turns out opening up at 85 doses per hundred was too early. Bummer. Lesson learned.
I know my age range, call it 45 to 55 years of age, has a severe problem. Among my friends I know several who had Coronavirus induced heart attacks (for all, their first).

I'm having the hardest time explaining to friends that it takes six weeks for the vaccines to do their magic. So I'm not seeing the inconsistency, there weren't that many vaccinated six weeks ago.

So perhaps I should have calculated an effective Ro of 2.5 for the population. Can we agree it is far above one? The data all supports that.
But all the indicators are the issues are in the less vaccinated population. In particular the middle aged (like myself); those who think one jab is enough are getting a rude shock.

From what you describe, it looks like our data agrees. We are just drawing two different conclusions. What time lag are you using when looking at the data?

My conclusion is not enough people in Israel are vaccinated. It looks like the 150 doses per hundred is what is needed to open up. :wideeyed:
But with the swift drop in issues in the elderly and all the sources noting the issue has shifted down to the middle aged, bummer. Israel needs another 6 million doses or so to fix this problem.

Lightsaber


The Israeli health ministry dashboard does not open on iphones, it does on computers and Android.
 
marcelh
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:35 am

lightsaber wrote:
EMA to rule on the J&J vaccine on March 11th:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN2AW0W8

The article notes CureVax and NovaVax "reviews are underway" which doesn't give much indication when they could be approved.'


According to the information given by the Dutch National Intstitute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) to the Parliamentary Committee, the first doses of CureVac (not Vax) will arrive in Q3 2021 (5.1 million) and Novavax in Q2-2021 (0.6 million).
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:11 pm

I tried the dashboard link on my chromebook and no joy. I won't be at a computer all day, so I will have to look later.

Late edit, it turns out this link pulls from the Israeli dashboard. So I will continue to use it as I cannot read Hebrew (the redirect works on Android):
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
EMA to rule on the J&J vaccine on March 11th:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN2AW0W8

The article notes CureVax and NovaVax "reviews are underway" which doesn't give much indication when they could be approved.'


According to the information given by the Dutch National Intstitute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) to the Parliamentary Committee, the first doses of CureVac (not Vax) will arrive in Q3 2021 (5.1 million) and Novavax in Q2-2021 (0.6 million).


Thank you for the information. I'd love to know the current plans for all the vaccines to which countries. We only get out of this when we suppress this globally.

Do not get me wrong, anything my government command chain does that slows myself getting a vaccine is going to have consequences next election. Vaccine distribution just became my #2 topic to vote on.

I have little idea where NovaVax and CureVac are today. e.g., the UK should be first to approve both, what is the schedule.

I first want to see 'islands' vaccinated to reopen international aviation (this is an aviation blog). But I also want to see all healthcare, first responders, teachers, and age 75+ taken care of early.

What vaccines are in mass production? Does anyone have a source for production rates, ideally week by week? Of the top of my head

US is getting 14.5 million mRNA/week, I have no clue on global production rates:

Approved (somewhere):
Pfizer
Moderna
Oxford-Astrazeneca + license production
Sputnik V
Sinopharm
Bharat
Johnson & Johnson/Janssen

Soon (not completed phase 3 trials):
NovaVax
CureVac
Valneva
Coronavac

I hear about 50,000 doses here, 300,000 there, but not the weekly production figures. Is there a source?

Lightsaber
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Francoflier
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:12 pm

lightsaber wrote:

I first want to see 'islands' vaccinated to reopen international aviation (this is an aviation blog). But I also want to see all healthcare, first responders, teachers, and age 75+ taken care of early.


It's encouraging to see that some nations are putting airline and airport workers (along with other essential cross-border staff) on the priority lists.
I know Singapore, for instance, vaccinated all of their airport staff before most of the rest of the city. Ditto the UAE and Qatar I believe. I think Hong Kong is doing the same right about now.
I'm sure many would question the morality of such a move, but as you said, we are aviation enthusiasts and should welcome the news.

What vaccines are in mass production? Does anyone have a source for production rates, ideally week by week? Of the top of my head

US is getting 14.5 million mRNA/week, I have no clue on global production rates:

Approved (somewhere):
Pfizer
Moderna
Oxford-Astrazeneca + license production
Sputnik V
Sinopharm
Bharat
Johnson & Johnson/Janssen

Soon (not completed phase 3 trials):
NovaVax
CureVac
Valneva
Coronavac

I hear about 50,000 doses here, 300,000 there, but not the weekly production figures. Is there a source?

Lightsaber


At that rate, the US should be able to vaccinate everyone with 2 doses within the rest of the year with just the mRNA vaccines alone... That's simply incredible.
I also don't believe any other disease has ever had so many vaccines available for it.

To go from a Worldwide virus outbreak to developing a vaccine to producing it by the billions to administering it to most of the World's population in much less than 2 years is a miracle of human technology we're in the process of witnessing and displays the ludicrous power we have to get something done on a global scale when absolutely everyone is intent on getting it done...

Now if we could apply this to climate change, which will eventually make this pandemic feel like the good old days.
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:16 pm

I found a decent link on Sputnik V production at "several million per week" ramping up.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/23/europe/s ... index.html
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:33 pm

Summary article on where we are. I won't quote a lot of it as the language used is a bit bombastic for my tastes:
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/dat ... 06980.html

265 million vaccine doses administered. At this pace it will take 5 years to sufficiently vaccinate the world (production pace accelerating, so don't worry).

Incredible numbers in a sublink from the New England Journal of Medicine!!!:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... tured_home

Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose.

NEJM, good peer reviewed data! :hyper:

92% to 94% effective for two doses after a week!!!!

Not as good as I expected for one dose, but good. So my estimate for Israeli Ro goes up to about 2.7. So they need another 4 million doses in arms. Bummer, but good data.

However, a 74% reduction in hospitalizations of elderly is incredible (after 2 weeks)! Why less for my age group?
With 596k people in the study group, that is definitive information.

Lightsaber
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c933103
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Summary article on where we are. I won't quote a lot of it as the language used is a bit bombastic for my tastes:
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/dat ... 06980.html

265 million vaccine doses administered. At this pace it will take 5 years to sufficiently vaccinate the world (production pace accelerating, so don't worry).

Incredible numbers in a sublink from the New England Journal of Medicine!!!:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... tured_home

Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose.

NEJM, good peer reviewed data! :hyper:

92% to 94% effective for two doses after a week!!!!

Not as good as I expected for one dose, but good. So my estimate for Israeli Ro goes up to about 2.7. So they need another 4 million doses in arms. Bummer, but good data.

However, a 74% reduction in hospitalizations of elderly is incredible (after 2 weeks)! Why less for my age group?
With 596k people in the study group, that is definitive information.

Lightsaber

Assuming vaccinated production rate of 92%, R0 of 4, and a vaccination rate of 90%, the reproductive number would become 4×(0.9×0.08+0.1×1)=0.688
While this is a good nunber, it doesn't always mean it can sufficiently suppress the virus spread.
As if you look at the reproductive nymber chart of Hong Kong:
https://covid19.sph.hku.hk/
Most of the time the virus have a reproductive number of somewhere between 0.4-0.6.
However, due to clusters that occurs every once in a while, the real time reproductive number would transiently increase, bringing an exponential number of case to the city.
And that's how the city keep having new case in the territory.
When such superspreading event occurs that formed infection cluster, it often involve certain degree of aerosolized transmission and is capable of infecting a high number of people, like multiple dozens were infected in just a lunch section in a recent cluster outbreak in Hong Kong, in other word the real time reproduction number there would become really high.
While vaccinated individuals would also have protection and help reduce some amount of transmission in such situation, the base number of possible targets getting infected is too high that such event will still end up infecting many.
And if such event occurs frequent enough, even if most of the population is vaccinated and the reproductive number in average is less than one, it might still cause the virus to keep going on.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:51 pm

Canada has approved J&J vaccine:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AX1R5

Some good news for Canada:
Trudeau also said Pfizer Inc had agreed to accelerate deliveries, shipping a total of 3.5 million doses ahead of schedule by the end of May.

...
With a population of almost 38 million, Canada now expects 36.5 million doses of previously approved vaccines to be delivered by the end of June.


Good news for Canada. Although, I'm wondering when J&J mass production will truly start. It was supposed to be more available at launch, so I have my concerns about production rate.

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CaptainHaresh
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:15 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Canada has approved J&J vaccine:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AX1R5

Some good news for Canada:
Trudeau also said Pfizer Inc had agreed to accelerate deliveries, shipping a total of 3.5 million doses ahead of schedule by the end of May.

...
With a population of almost 38 million, Canada now expects 36.5 million doses of previously approved vaccines to be delivered by the end of June.


Good news for Canada. Although, I'm wondering when J&J mass production will truly start. It was supposed to be more available at launch, so I have my concerns about production rate.

Lightsaber


Fauci said that they would pay to produce vaccines at risk before they are approved so that everyone could get vaccinated soon after approval.
Whatever happened to that?
Whatever happened to enough vaccine doses for all Americans by April?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/coronav ... -time.html

6 months ago they said April, now they’re saying by the end of July.
By the end of July, the goalpost will move to September?
Then booster shots, switching vaccines, and before you know it, it will be 2024 and time to elect a new US president.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:26 pm

c933103 wrote:
Assuming vaccinated production rate of 92%, R0 of 4, and a vaccination rate of 90%, the reproductive number would become 4×(0.9×0.08+0.1×1)=0.688

4*0.9*0.08=.288
4*.1*1=.4

In your example 10% of the people will be responsible for 58% of the disease. Except you make the assumption that a vaccinated person is as likely to be able to spread the disease as a non-vac I disagree. If you cannot get the disease, you do not spread the disease. So the unvac will be the spreaders.

As soon as I'm able, I shall get vaccinated, heck, half my friends have been vaccinated (in medicine, elder care, lucky break at hospital when "we have a spare dose, want it", police, teachers).

I already see myself excluded from social events the vaccinated are holding. (Although I wish they would realize full immunity takes six weeks!!!) The local term is "Unvac". Sigh, I'm not an "UnVac" by intent! :hissyfit:

This creates a problem for only one group. I'm sorry, but the vaccinated majority are already proving they'll just move on.

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c933103
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:48 pm

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Assuming vaccinated production rate of 92%, R0 of 4, and a vaccination rate of 90%, the reproductive number would become 4×(0.9×0.08+0.1×1)=0.688

4*0.9*0.08=.288
4*.1*1=.4

In your example 10% of the people will be responsible for 58% of the disease. Except you make the assumption that a vaccinated person is as likely to be able to spread the disease as a non-vac I disagree. If you cannot get the disease, you do not spread the disease. So the unvac will be the spreaders.

As soon as I'm able, I shall get vaccinated, heck, half my friends have been vaccinated (in medicine, elder care, lucky break at hospital when "we have a spare dose, want it", police, teachers).

I already see myself excluded from social events the vaccinated are holding. (Although I wish they would realize full immunity takes six weeks!!!) The local term is "Unvac". Sigh, I'm not an "UnVac" by intent! :hissyfit:

This creates a problem for only one group. I'm sorry, but the vaccinated majority are already proving they'll just move on.

Lightsaber

The 0.08 here mean infected vaccinated individuals.
And as discussed before since none of the major vaccines around the world ars nasal the virus successfully infecting vaccinated individual will likely multiply and spread from nasal cavity before the immune system get to respond and take them down.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:23 pm

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/5c427 ... 9554534ebc
Japanese government's head of the coronavirus correspondence meeting say that, even if 60-70% population in Japan are to be vaccinated within this year, the disease will still spread into the winter with severe patient every once in a while.
He think that, the end of the coronavirus will come one or two years after this year, when it become like seasonal flu and uneasiness around the virus went away, then the pandemic will end.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:36 am

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Assuming vaccinated production rate of 92%, R0 of 4, and a vaccination rate of 90%, the reproductive number would become 4×(0.9×0.08+0.1×1)=0.688

4*0.9*0.08=.288
4*.1*1=.4

In your example 10% of the people will be responsible for 58% of the disease. Except you make the assumption that a vaccinated person is as likely to be able to spread the disease as a non-vac I disagree. If you cannot get the disease, you do not spread the disease. So the unvac will be the spreaders.

As soon as I'm able, I shall get vaccinated, heck, half my friends have been vaccinated (in medicine, elder care, lucky break at hospital when "we have a spare dose, want it", police, teachers).

I already see myself excluded from social events the vaccinated are holding. (Although I wish they would realize full immunity takes six weeks!!!) The local term is "Unvac". Sigh, I'm not an "UnVac" by intent! :hissyfit:

This creates a problem for only one group. I'm sorry, but the vaccinated majority are already proving they'll just move on.

Lightsaber

The 0.08 here mean infected vaccinated individuals.
And as discussed before since none of the major vaccines around the world ars nasal the virus successfully infecting vaccinated individual will likely multiply and spread from nasal cavity before the immune system get to respond and take them down.

I already posted how there is a 75% reduction in asymptomatic among the vaccinated:
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/pfize ... -fold/amp/

The opposite of your theory is what real world data is showing. It will be a problem in the UnVacs, not the Vaccinated by a factor of 4 with just one dose!
I would assume the fully Vaccinated have an 8% chance of being an asymptomatic spreader vs. an UnVac.

Every bit of data is showing:
1. Vaccines work
2. Vaccines slow the spread of disease
3. We need a very high vaccination rate as with an Ro=4, in a respiratory virus, is going to spread quickly among clumps of unvaccinated.

Israel has shown (in my opinion), you cannot open up with a high UnVac population. :cry2:

The only problem is (relative to population) low vaccine production.

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c933103
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Mar 06, 2021 1:24 am

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
4*0.9*0.08=.288
4*.1*1=.4

In your example 10% of the people will be responsible for 58% of the disease. Except you make the assumption that a vaccinated person is as likely to be able to spread the disease as a non-vac I disagree. If you cannot get the disease, you do not spread the disease. So the unvac will be the spreaders.

As soon as I'm able, I shall get vaccinated, heck, half my friends have been vaccinated (in medicine, elder care, lucky break at hospital when "we have a spare dose, want it", police, teachers).

I already see myself excluded from social events the vaccinated are holding. (Although I wish they would realize full immunity takes six weeks!!!) The local term is "Unvac". Sigh, I'm not an "UnVac" by intent! :hissyfit:

This creates a problem for only one group. I'm sorry, but the vaccinated majority are already proving they'll just move on.

Lightsaber

The 0.08 here mean infected vaccinated individuals.
And as discussed before since none of the major vaccines around the world ars nasal the virus successfully infecting vaccinated individual will likely multiply and spread from nasal cavity before the immune system get to respond and take them down.

I already posted how there is a 75% reduction in asymptomatic among the vaccinated:
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/pfize ... -fold/amp/

The opposite of your theory is what real world data is showing. It will be a problem in the UnVacs, not the Vaccinated by a factor of 4 with just one dose!
I would assume the fully Vaccinated have an 8% chance of being an asymptomatic spreader vs. an UnVac.

Every bit of data is showing:
1. Vaccines work
2. Vaccines slow the spread of disease
3. We need a very high vaccination rate as with an Ro=4, in a respiratory virus, is going to spread quickly among clumps of unvaccinated.

Israel has shown (in my opinion), you cannot open up with a high UnVac population. :cry2:

The only problem is (relative to population) low vaccine production.

Lightsaber

Your data doesn't contradict what I said?
The 92% figure which induce 0.08x infection chance is the probability of detected infection, so whether the infection is symptomatic or not they'll both be counted.
And as for the reproduction in nasal cavity part, they are the process of reproduction "after" a person have been infected and subsequently the probability to spread to "others" and those aren't covered by stats you have shown
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Mar 06, 2021 1:45 am

CaptainHaresh wrote:
Fauci said that they would pay to produce vaccines at risk before they are approved so that everyone could get vaccinated soon after approval.
Whatever happened to that?
Whatever happened to enough vaccine doses for all Americans by April?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/coronav ... -time.html

6 months ago they said April, now they’re saying by the end of July.
By the end of July, the goalpost will move to September?
Then booster shots, switching vaccines, and before you know it, it will be 2024 and time to elect a new US president.

Because it's really freakin' hard to make them, and, more importantly, make them compliantly?

This isn't like turning out toys in the impulse purchase section of your grocery story. This is really complicated stuff. And it doesn't just "scale." Making this stuff in labs is different making it in pilot plants is different from making it in commercial-scale plants. Yes, you can produce on risk, and many companies do precisely that on a routine basis with products pending health authority approval, but it doesn't mean you just do it and everything is perfect. This stuff takes time. It takes effort. And it's really hard to do.
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Mar 06, 2021 2:42 am

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
The 0.08 here mean infected vaccinated individuals.
And as discussed before since none of the major vaccines around the world ars nasal the virus successfully infecting vaccinated individual will likely multiply and spread from nasal cavity before the immune system get to respond and take them down.

I already posted how there is a 75% reduction in asymptomatic among the vaccinated:
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/pfize ... -fold/amp/

The opposite of your theory is what real world data is showing. It will be a problem in the UnVacs, not the Vaccinated by a factor of 4 with just one dose!
I would assume the fully Vaccinated have an 8% chance of being an asymptomatic spreader vs. an UnVac.

Every bit of data is showing:
1. Vaccines work
2. Vaccines slow the spread of disease
3. We need a very high vaccination rate as with an Ro=4, in a respiratory virus, is going to spread quickly among clumps of unvaccinated.

Israel has shown (in my opinion), you cannot open up with a high UnVac population. :cry2:

The only problem is (relative to population) low vaccine production.

Lightsaber

Your data doesn't contradict what I said?
The 92% figure which induce 0.08x infection chance is the probability of detected infection, so whether the infection is symptomatic or not they'll both be counted.
And as for the reproduction in nasal cavity part, they are the process of reproduction "after" a person have been infected and subsequently the probability to spread to "others" and those aren't covered by stats you have shown


This isn't new stuff. Viral loading is a critical parameter in disease propagation and progression.
Borrowing from HIV research
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Set ... _306039615
Image

So if the vaccines reduce viral load below detection, that would mean less infection. In Covid19, a slow disease progression means asymptomatic to minor symptoms.

Here is a link on cutting the viral load with vaccine:
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2229 ... rna-pfizer
Two recent studies show some pretty favorable results — one from the UK that found that two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine cut down by 86 percent someone’s chances of developing an infection that they could pass along, the other a study in Israel that found an 89.4 percent reduction (though it should be noted that the Israeli study has yet to be fully released). These findings are consistent with what we know about vaccines and transmission in general.

The math was really basic, a small number of unvaccinated pose more risk than 10X the number of vaccinated. So natural risk reduction behavior will have the two camps split. My opinion is that if vaccinated avoid unvaccinated (as my friends are doing, they are nice about it, but it isn't hard to understand their reasoning), they have a very low risk. For a person with a low chance of getting Covid19, with a low chance of a high viral load thanks to the vaccine, means low risk.

The #1 reason, in my opinion, to get a vaccine is to reduce the risk of transmission to others.
In an opinion piece, Johns Hopkins epidemiologists M. Kate Grabowski and Justin Lessler argued, “We are confident vaccination against COVID-19 reduces the chances of transmitting the virus.”
Not everyone who has Covid-19 is equally likely to transmit it. A study recently published in The Lancet based on research from contact tracing in Spain has found a very strong association between viral load and how many other people the patient infects, as well as how serious the infections in other people are.

This isn’t very surprising. Viral load determines how much virus you are coughing or breathing into the air, which determines whether other people get sick. And if they get sick with an unusually large dose of the virus, it’ll have a “head start” at infecting them, and they’re likely to get sicker.


It comes down to the sicker someone becomes, the more people they might get sick as the more virus they shed. Since we know from my above New England Journal of Medicine link that the vaccinated are getting less severe cases and the new link, lower viral loadings, I think we have enough evidence.

Which is why those that believe that vaccines reduce transmission will want to hang around vaccinated people. Those that don't, won't care. It will all be about risk management.

Lightsaber

Late edit, I found a nice link on finding out how much of the population must be vaccinated to reach herd immunity:

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/2020/12/1 ... -immunity/

F*=(1/x (1-1/Ro))

For Ro=3, and vaccine efficacy of x= 90%, need 74% vaccinated.

Anyway, that article avoids a long back and forth. There is uncertainty in x. F* can be above 100% where only the vaccinated benefit. In other words, only the selfish scenario.

But if x=.92 and R0=4, we need 81.5% vaccinated.

There will still be outbreaks. People will still die. But most of us will go back to living life normally.
At that point please see the New England Journal of medicine link for reduced hospitalization and severe impact.
Wow, the more I read, the worse it gets for the UnVac...
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c933103
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Mar 06, 2021 3:00 am

lightsaber wrote:
This isn't new stuff. Viral loading is a critical parameter in disease propagation and progression.
Borrowing from HIV research
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Set ... _306039615
Image

So if the vaccines reduce viral load below detection, that would mean less infection. In Covid19, a slow disease progression means asymptomatic to minor symptoms.

Here is a link on cutting the viral load with vaccine:
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2229 ... rna-pfizer
Two recent studies show some pretty favorable results — one from the UK that found that two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine cut down by 86 percent someone’s chances of developing an infection that they could pass along, the other a study in Israel that found an 89.4 percent reduction (though it should be noted that the Israeli study has yet to be fully released). These findings are consistent with what we know about vaccines and transmission in general.

The problem is not whether the viral load is decreased inside the entire patient's body, but specifically the nose part where it matter for transmission.
https://www.miragenews.com/hkumed-found ... on-523790/
The math was really basic, a small number of unvaccinated pose more risk than 10X the number of vaccinated. So natural risk reduction behavior will have the two camps split. My opinion is that if vaccinated avoid unvaccinated (as my friends are doing, they are nice about it, but it isn't hard to understand their reasoning), they have a very low risk. For a person with a low chance of getting Covid19, with a low chance of a high viral load thanks to the vaccine, means low risk.

I am not doubting the vaccinated would have much lower risk than those unvaccinated to be infected & transmit the virus, but the question here is, is the immunity enough to ultimately fully stop the virus from circulating around the world? Or will we still see an uncomfortable level of new cases and death figure and still need to worry about it and still need to take additional preventive measures against it even after a large part of the population have been vaccinated?
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Mar 06, 2021 3:51 am

c933103 wrote:
but the question here is, is the immunity enough to ultimately fully stop the virus from circulating around the world? Or will we still see an uncomfortable level of new cases and death figure and still need to worry about it and still need to take additional preventive measures against it even after a large part of the population have been vaccinated?

We'll need a booster shot to stop this. Until then, some preventative measures will be needed. If you are asking if it will be back, the answer is certain to be yes. In particular as I do not think we'll hit a high enough fraction of vaccinated in 2021.

But worry about it? Please review the reduced severity with vaccines. As long as my older relatives are well vaccinated, I'm getting vaccinated to protect them.
Death among the vaccinated, after 8+ weeks after 2nd dose, is really low. But we need months more (in the USA, UK, and Israel) to get everyone a chance to be vaccinated.

Get vaccinated to reduce concern.


I look at it this way, people who had covid19 produce far more antibodies when they get a vaccine, so an extra shot in the fall should really help protect everyone.

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/02/2 ... infection/

They found that those who’d never been infected by SARS-CoV-2 developed antibodies at low levels within 9 to 12 days of receiving their first dose of vaccine.

But in 41 people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies prior to getting the first shot, the immune response looked strikingly different. They generated high levels of antibodies within just a few days of getting the vaccine. Compared across different time intervals, previously infected people had immune responses 10 to 20 times that observed in uninfected people. Following their second vaccine dose, it was roughly the same story. Antibody levels in those with a prior infection were about 10 times greater than the others.


What I won't do is worry about this virus. I had it, I recovered. I'll behave until I'm vaccinated and everyone has a chance for a vaccine (locally). Then I won't behave. :hyper:

Lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Mar 06, 2021 4:56 am

Most people overestimate the ability we will have to see cases 6-8-10 months from now. Since nobody who gets vaccinated for will bother getting tested and those who don’t get vaccinated probably won’t either unless they get violently sick we will only see the most severe cases showing up. Don’t forget too most testing centers will close. A year from today it’ll likely be close to impossible to get a Covid test, even if you want one
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Mar 06, 2021 3:46 pm

lightsaber wrote:
But worry about it? Please review the reduced severity with vaccines. As long as my older relatives are well vaccinated, I'm getting vaccinated to protect them.
Death among the vaccinated, after 8+ weeks after 2nd dose, is really low. But we need months more (in the USA, UK, and Israel) to get everyone a chance to be vaccinated.

Get vaccinated to reduce concern.

I was not thinking about the worry in term of individual safety level, but instead the level of infection going wild in the society
With 92% protection rate after vaccinated, it means a vaccinated individual is 12.5 times less likely than an unvaccinated individual to catch the virus, but if the number of infected patients out there is 12.5 times higher, then the odd of vaccinated individual getting the virus in day to day interaction would be about as much as an unvaccinated individual in a low infection rate environment
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:13 pm

Tugger wrote:
An interesting note is that neither Pfizer nor BioNTech received any funding from the US "Operation Warp Speed" for development or clinical trial or manufacturing of the vaccine. Pfizer self-funded and BioNTech SE received German government funding support. (Operation Warp Speed has secured orders with Pfizer for 100 MIL doses and options on 500 MIL more)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... washington

Tugg

Pfizer turned $2 billion down.
https://americanindependent.com/mike-pe ... act-check/
Pfizer had turned down research and development funding under Operation Warp Speed.

The Trump administration had offered Pfizer nearly $2 billion to rush the vaccine to market, but the company only accepted funding for production and distribution.


i approve of companies making business decisions. I have idea what the 'hooks' were for accepting the money.

What I want is far more vaccine in production.


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cjg225
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:51 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Pfizer turned $2 billion down.
https://americanindependent.com/mike-pe ... act-check/
Pfizer had turned down research and development funding under Operation Warp Speed.

The Trump administration had offered Pfizer nearly $2 billion to rush the vaccine to market, but the company only accepted funding for production and distribution.


i approve of companies making business decisions. I have idea what the 'hooks' were for accepting the money.

What I want is far more vaccine in production.


LIghtsaber

Money isn't really a significant limiting factor.
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:38 am

I just got unblinded from the Moderna vaccine trial on Thursday. Originally I was going to go in this week for the 6 month post second injection appointment, but I got a call a week ago from the trial center saying that Moderna wanted everyone unblinded by the end of this past week. Apparently they are getting ready for the FDA to fully approve the Moderna vaccine. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pfizer vaccine is also close to full certification.

Image
 
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c933103
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:57 am

https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/202103 ... 2_001.html
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/202103 ... 2_001.html

Hong Kong: About two weeks into the vaccination program, there are two cases of death after receiving vaccine. The government lead committee claims the two death have no direct connection with the vaccine, however the number of people reserving and taking the vaccine have dropped. Major vaccination centers, which were fully booked, have also changed their status and show there are immediately available quota for the following days across most time slots. And the government stopped publishing data about vaccine reservation since yesterday.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:13 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20210307/mobile/bkn-20210307045251801-0307_00822_001.html
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/202103 ... 2_001.html

Hong Kong: About two weeks into the vaccination program, there are two cases of death after receiving vaccine. The government lead committee claims the two death have no direct connection with the vaccine, however the number of people reserving and taking the vaccine have dropped. Major vaccination centers, which were fully booked, have also changed their status and show there are immediately available quota for the following days across most time slots. And the government stopped publishing data about vaccine reservation since yesterday.

Latest was a chronically ill woman who had a stroke. That isn exactly a vaccine side effect,:
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/co ... r-BB1eiAt2

It should be noted the vaccine is SinoVac.

It is a bummer fewer are getting the vaccine. Vaccines will save so many lives.

Lightsaber
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art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:26 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The reduction of viral load would be an advantage but is there any evidence that an asymptomatic non vaccinated individual has a higher load of virus than an asymptomatic vaccinated individual or is this just a sales pitch?

Israel’s downtrend in infections has stopped and it’s showing signs of reversal into an uptrend to form a new wave, much like Europe.

Little to no data coming from Israel on the incidence of vaccinated among COVID-19 deaths, while most 50+ have been vaccinated.

So far there is no evidence that vaccines are having the desired effect at the macro scale.

As my two cents, I think that things may start to look rosier heading into the summer as the virus weakens due to environmental factors, much like influenza weakens in the warmer months.
Vaccines may then get the credit and we may see premature and excessive reopenings leading to new waves in the fall and winter.
By Christmas, we could be back to square 1, new variants could be blamed instead of vaccines not being effective.
By this time in 2022, the right questions will start to be asked about the vaccines.
Vaccine OEM’s will tout improved vaccines, people will eventually get fed up of having needles stuck in their arms and stop showing up.

Aren’t we banking too much on the vaccines?
Isn’t this what is prompting Texas and Mississippi to lift mask requirements prematurely?
As long as no vaccine is being wasted and there are more arms available to be injected than there are doses available, what is the purpose of pro-vax PR, including by many on this forum?
How long until there are enough doses for 8 billion people?
How long until the EU and US stop people from the other side of the pond from entering the same way they would someone from North Korea?


Positive infection tests have fallen in UK. I think there are at least 5 variables at play:

1 Lockdown - should result in a decrease
2 Vaccination - should result in a decrease
3 Emergence of new variants in UK population (Kent, SA, Brazil etc) - should result in an increase
4 A recent spell of very cold weather - should result in an increase
5 Reluctance of people who have been vaccinated to continue to curtail behaviour - should result in an increase

I defy anyone to say with certainty exactly how much vaccination is responsible in the decrease in recorded positives. UK has dropped from a rolling 7 day average peak of 60K 8 weeks ago to a rolling 7 day average of 6K now but a decrease in positive tests follows what was to be expected from vaccination.

You seem to be saying that if things improve, the improvement will be due due to non-vaccination factors even though the evidence of the vaccine trials is that things improve when people are vaccinated.
 
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:49 pm

Call the expected life span at 75 ten years, add a little and that is 4000 days. Roughly for every 4000 such persons vaccinated, one will die in the next 24 hours. Demographers and epidemiologists come up with better numbers, but the basic story is that us old people die. They will look more at unexpected deaths, I don't know if there are any such charts and tables on that.
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FGITD
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 4:32 pm

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20210307/mobile/bkn-20210307045251801-0307_00822_001.html
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/202103 ... 2_001.html

Hong Kong: About two weeks into the vaccination program, there are two cases of death after receiving vaccine. The government lead committee claims the two death have no direct connection with the vaccine, however the number of people reserving and taking the vaccine have dropped. Major vaccination centers, which were fully booked, have also changed their status and show there are immediately available quota for the following days across most time slots. And the government stopped publishing data about vaccine reservation since yesterday.

Latest was a chronically ill woman who had a stroke. That isn exactly a vaccine side effect,:
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/co ... r-BB1eiAt2

It should be noted the vaccine is SinoVac.

It is a bummer fewer are getting the vaccine. Vaccines will save so many lives.

Lightsaber


There’s an interesting parallel here to the people who claim that the number of covid deaths is inflated by people dying of other causes, but also having covid. Somehow now dying of any cause after vaccination gets roped back to the jab.

“Man dies just minutes after Covid vaccination!!!" Is the headline..."after getting hit by a truck in the parking lot" is the story.
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 4:48 pm

FGITD wrote:
There’s an interesting parallel here to the people who claim that the number of covid deaths is inflated by people dying of other causes, but also having covid. Somehow now dying of any cause after vaccination gets roped back to the jab.

“Man dies just minutes after Covid vaccination!!!" Is the headline..."after getting hit by a truck in the parking lot" is the story.


Can work both ways, possibly. UK data is for deaths recorded within 28 days of a positive test. I have not checked but what if death occurs more than 28 days after a positive test? Are those unfortunate people not counted?
 
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c933103
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 4:52 pm

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20210307/mobile/bkn-20210307045251801-0307_00822_001.html
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/202103 ... 2_001.html

Hong Kong: About two weeks into the vaccination program, there are two cases of death after receiving vaccine. The government lead committee claims the two death have no direct connection with the vaccine, however the number of people reserving and taking the vaccine have dropped. Major vaccination centers, which were fully booked, have also changed their status and show there are immediately available quota for the following days across most time slots. And the government stopped publishing data about vaccine reservation since yesterday.

Latest was a chronically ill woman who had a stroke. That isn exactly a vaccine side effect,:
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/co ... r-BB1eiAt2

It should be noted the vaccine is SinoVac.

It is a bummer fewer are getting the vaccine. Vaccines will save so many lives.

Lightsaber

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 210307.htm
Leader of a local pharmacist group commented that while the corona vaccine should not cause stroke, inflammation of blood vassal could be caused among those with stronger immune system response, and he hope expert can clarify whether the vaccine will accelerate blood vassal inflammation. To which the government vaccination panel expert conmented, after getting infected by virus, immune system could change and result in blood vassal inflammation and occlusion, but such effect should only appear after some amount of time.
----
Some background information to the vaccination program in Hong Kong

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-56095801
https://www.thestandnews.com/politics/% ... %E6%88%B0/
Initially, Hong Kong government said they would look at three factors on whether the vaccines should be allowed for domestic use, including phase 3 test data from the vaccine supplier, how other regulators around the world handle the vaccine, and whether the data have been published on medical journal. The BioNTech vaccine cleared them all, but the government waived the requirement of publishing data on medical journal for the SinoVac vaccine following some delay in test data submission, in order to speed up the approval process.
The government panel claim they are not being pressurized to approve the SinoVac vaccine.

https://www.bastillepost.com/hongkong/a ... %E6%83%B9/
When BioNTech vaccine was approved by the government of Hong Kong but not SinoVac, there're some voices claiming that they want to specifically get Chinese vaccine. The Hong Kong government have claimed they have specifically requested support from Chinese Central government to allow the use of Chinese Mainland manufactured vaccines in Hong Kong. There were advertisements being made callong for special arrangement to let Hong Kong residents attend Mainland China and accept Chinese-made vaccines if Hong Kong government failed to approve Chinese vaccines.

https://hk.appledaily.com/local/2021022 ... G44RIPHDA/
There are report that, the decision of whether or not the SinoVac vaccine should be recommended to elderly have caused some discussion among experts in the government vaccination panel, seeing as the phase 3 data SinoVac submitted didn't cover elderly sufficiently. But as the panel reviewed the alternative scenario of whether or not the vaccine ahould be recommended to elderly, they found that since there are some elderly who might prefer taking the SinoVac vaccine and might opt not to take the vaccine if they weren't given such choice, and hence the test data on elderly from phase 1 and 2 data from SinoVac appears to be good, some think SinoVac simply adopted a bad research methodology and think the data will become better after people are actually vaccinated, they decided to still recommend the vaccine but mention the lack of data in the press release detail, on the ground that they hope there can be more than singulat vaccine available and let citizens make the choice themselves.

https://www.hk01.com/%E7%A4%BE%E6%9C%83 ... 5%E5%A2%83
It was reported that, the effective rate of the SinoVac vaccine is 50.6%, with ninty-five-percent confident interval of -116% to 91%, according to test data SinoVac submitted to Hong Kong government. Expert explained that, the negative here simply reflect the lack of test data and doesn't mean people vaccinated with SinoVac vaccines would become more easily infected by the virus.

https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82 ... 0%E5%88%B6
It's noted that, currently Hong Kong government prioritize vaccination effort for vulnerable groups including those who age above 60, but in China Mainland their vaccination program is currently limited to those age between 18 and 59, and would only expand to advanced age group after more test data are gathered
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
WIederling
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 5:23 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
Little to no data coming from Israel on the incidence of vaccinated among COVID-19 deaths, while most 50+ have been vaccinated.
So far there is no evidence that vaccines are having the desired effect at the macro scale.


How about the ultra othodox : still opposing vaccination?

Any differentiated data available in infection rate by groups?
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:28 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Call the expected life span at 75 ten years, add a little and that is 4000 days. Roughly for every 4000 such persons vaccinated, one will die in the next 24 hours. Demographers and epidemiologists come up with better numbers, but the basic story is that us old people die. They will look more at unexpected deaths, I don't know if there are any such charts and tables on that.

Sad but true.

To this could be like jogging, as an analogy. As I jog and right afterwards, my doctor warns me my risk of a heart attack goes up, but overall risk goes down:
https://www.healthline.com/health/fitne ... %20disease

So I jog to live longer.

So I figure some will die due to side effects. Vast majority will live longer having a vaccine as an individual. Definitely as a group when the spread slows.

In Israel, I already presented calculations that the Ro should be above two with how many refused vaccines.

The reality is we're going into a summer of two rusks groups. One group who can play by vaccinated rules an the UnVacs who probably won't play by any rules. Meh, my friends, my childrens friends, and most importantly my parents and their friends will all voluntarily get vaccinated. This insane year of controls will end, even if the government tries otherwise. Seriously, I still behave, but over a third if those out and about already do not despite half the over 65 not having even the first dose..

We'll definitely have the 4th wave. While my experience getting infected at the end if the 3rd wave was incredibly mild with no known long term consequences, I will take on the responsibility to protect others and get vaccinated.

The US has pulled up to 0.65 doses per hundred people (7 day trailing average). I will be much happier when that breaks 2.0 or even 3.0:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Lightsaber
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LNCS0930
Posts: 183
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:20 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20210307/mobile/bkn-20210307045251801-0307_00822_001.html
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/202103 ... 2_001.html

Hong Kong: About two weeks into the vaccination program, there are two cases of death after receiving vaccine. The government lead committee claims the two death have no direct connection with the vaccine, however the number of people reserving and taking the vaccine have dropped. Major vaccination centers, which were fully booked, have also changed their status and show there are immediately available quota for the following days across most time slots. And the government stopped publishing data about vaccine reservation since yesterday.

Latest was a chronically ill woman who had a stroke. That isn exactly a vaccine side effect,:
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/co ... r-BB1eiAt2

It should be noted the vaccine is SinoVac.

It is a bummer fewer are getting the vaccine. Vaccines will save so many lives.

Lightsaber

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 210307.htm
Leader of a local pharmacist group commented that while the corona vaccine should not cause stroke, inflammation of blood vassal could be caused among those with stronger immune system response, and he hope expert can clarify whether the vaccine will accelerate blood vassal inflammation. To which the government vaccination panel expert conmented, after getting infected by virus, immune system could change and result in blood vassal inflammation and occlusion, but such effect should only appear after some amount of time.
----
Some background information to the vaccination program in Hong Kong

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-56095801
https://www.thestandnews.com/politics/% ... %E6%88%B0/
Initially, Hong Kong government said they would look at three factors on whether the vaccines should be allowed for domestic use, including phase 3 test data from the vaccine supplier, how other regulators around the world handle the vaccine, and whether the data have been published on medical journal. The BioNTech vaccine cleared them all, but the government waived the requirement of publishing data on medical journal for the SinoVac vaccine following some delay in test data submission, in order to speed up the approval process.
The government panel claim they are not being pressurized to approve the SinoVac vaccine.

https://www.bastillepost.com/hongkong/a ... %E6%83%B9/
When BioNTech vaccine was approved by the government of Hong Kong but not SinoVac, there're some voices claiming that they want to specifically get Chinese vaccine. The Hong Kong government have claimed they have specifically requested support from Chinese Central government to allow the use of Chinese Mainland manufactured vaccines in Hong Kong. There were advertisements being made callong for special arrangement to let Hong Kong residents attend Mainland China and accept Chinese-made vaccines if Hong Kong government failed to approve Chinese vaccines.

https://hk.appledaily.com/local/2021022 ... G44RIPHDA/
There are report that, the decision of whether or not the SinoVac vaccine should be recommended to elderly have caused some discussion among experts in the government vaccination panel, seeing as the phase 3 data SinoVac submitted didn't cover elderly sufficiently. But as the panel reviewed the alternative scenario of whether or not the vaccine ahould be recommended to elderly, they found that since there are some elderly who might prefer taking the SinoVac vaccine and might opt not to take the vaccine if they weren't given such choice, and hence the test data on elderly from phase 1 and 2 data from SinoVac appears to be good, some think SinoVac simply adopted a bad research methodology and think the data will become better after people are actually vaccinated, they decided to still recommend the vaccine but mention the lack of data in the press release detail, on the ground that they hope there can be more than singulat vaccine available and let citizens make the choice themselves.

https://www.hk01.com/%E7%A4%BE%E6%9C%83 ... 5%E5%A2%83
It was reported that, the effective rate of the SinoVac vaccine is 50.6%, with ninty-five-percent confident interval of -116% to 91%, according to test data SinoVac submitted to Hong Kong government. Expert explained that, the negative here simply reflect the lack of test data and doesn't mean people vaccinated with SinoVac vaccines would become more easily infected by the virus.

https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82 ... 0%E5%88%B6
It's noted that, currently Hong Kong government prioritize vaccination effort for vulnerable groups including those who age above 60, but in China Mainland their vaccination program is currently limited to those age between 18 and 59, and would only expand to advanced age group after more test data are gathered



I’ve seen several people claim a friend or relative died of a stroke or brain aneurysm the day after the vaccine. That would definitely correlate to the blood vessel thing
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:38 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Latest was a chronically ill woman who had a stroke. That isn exactly a vaccine side effect,:
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/co ... r-BB1eiAt2

It should be noted the vaccine is SinoVac.

It is a bummer fewer are getting the vaccine. Vaccines will save so many lives.

Lightsaber

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 210307.htm
Leader of a local pharmacist group commented that while the corona vaccine should not cause stroke, inflammation of blood vassal could be caused among those with stronger immune system response, and he hope expert can clarify whether the vaccine will accelerate blood vassal inflammation. To which the government vaccination panel expert conmented, after getting infected by virus, immune system could change and result in blood vassal inflammation and occlusion, but such effect should only appear after some amount of time.
----
Some background information to the vaccination program in Hong Kong

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-56095801
https://www.thestandnews.com/politics/% ... %E6%88%B0/
Initially, Hong Kong government said they would look at three factors on whether the vaccines should be allowed for domestic use, including phase 3 test data from the vaccine supplier, how other regulators around the world handle the vaccine, and whether the data have been published on medical journal. The BioNTech vaccine cleared them all, but the government waived the requirement of publishing data on medical journal for the SinoVac vaccine following some delay in test data submission, in order to speed up the approval process.
The government panel claim they are not being pressurized to approve the SinoVac vaccine.

https://www.bastillepost.com/hongkong/a ... %E6%83%B9/
When BioNTech vaccine was approved by the government of Hong Kong but not SinoVac, there're some voices claiming that they want to specifically get Chinese vaccine. The Hong Kong government have claimed they have specifically requested support from Chinese Central government to allow the use of Chinese Mainland manufactured vaccines in Hong Kong. There were advertisements being made callong for special arrangement to let Hong Kong residents attend Mainland China and accept Chinese-made vaccines if Hong Kong government failed to approve Chinese vaccines.

https://hk.appledaily.com/local/2021022 ... G44RIPHDA/
There are report that, the decision of whether or not the SinoVac vaccine should be recommended to elderly have caused some discussion among experts in the government vaccination panel, seeing as the phase 3 data SinoVac submitted didn't cover elderly sufficiently. But as the panel reviewed the alternative scenario of whether or not the vaccine ahould be recommended to elderly, they found that since there are some elderly who might prefer taking the SinoVac vaccine and might opt not to take the vaccine if they weren't given such choice, and hence the test data on elderly from phase 1 and 2 data from SinoVac appears to be good, some think SinoVac simply adopted a bad research methodology and think the data will become better after people are actually vaccinated, they decided to still recommend the vaccine but mention the lack of data in the press release detail, on the ground that they hope there can be more than singulat vaccine available and let citizens make the choice themselves.

https://www.hk01.com/%E7%A4%BE%E6%9C%83 ... 5%E5%A2%83
It was reported that, the effective rate of the SinoVac vaccine is 50.6%, with ninty-five-percent confident interval of -116% to 91%, according to test data SinoVac submitted to Hong Kong government. Expert explained that, the negative here simply reflect the lack of test data and doesn't mean people vaccinated with SinoVac vaccines would become more easily infected by the virus.

https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82 ... 0%E5%88%B6
It's noted that, currently Hong Kong government prioritize vaccination effort for vulnerable groups including those who age above 60, but in China Mainland their vaccination program is currently limited to those age between 18 and 59, and would only expand to advanced age group after more test data are gathered



I’ve seen several people claim a friend or relative died of a stroke or brain aneurysm the day after the vaccine. That would definitely correlate to the blood vessel thing

I personally know several people who caught coronavirus and had heart attacks. I personally know some younger people with such scared lungs they will be crippled for life.

I personally do not know a soul who had trouble with any of the US vaccines. If there is concern about a Chinese vaccine, I will be glad I live in a nation where there are 3 (soon to be the AZ, and then NovaVax) to choose from. However, if I lived in a region with a choice between Sinopharm or no vaccine, I would choose Sinopharm.

So we will get to open up! :hyper: Oh, I consider some opening too soon but I am also an advocate of the Florida system of opening up. (Indoor dinning at very reduced densities, patio, don't wear a mask unless you are going into a store or near an elderly person.) When I did down through the data, Florida was open and did well:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
Compared to hard locked down California:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... alifornia/

If I could get an mRNA vaccine within the hour, I would. Even though my doctor informed me waiting until 4 weeks after my Covid19 symptoms started would make it even more effective. I posted the links before on how viral loading impacts a case. I believe a vaccinated me is far less of a risk to my over age 80 relatives than unvaccinated.

Good news, 17.1% of the US population has had at least one dose. Bad news is only 8.9% are fully vaccinated

Compare that 17.1% to 1st dose: 57% Israel/32.1%UK/6.1% EU

Compare the 8.9% of fully vaccinated to 42.9% Israel /1.6% for UK/2.9% (as previously discussed, the UK is prioritizing 1st doses over 2nd doses).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... alifornia/

I'm bummer that Israel opening up at 85 doses per hundred wasn't enough. Cest la vie. When they get to 150 or so, they should try again.

I am very thankfully I avoided the crippling that can come with Coronavirus. Anyone hesitant about the vaccine should think about that. For myself to find a negative impact of a vaccine, I cannot find one among the huge number of people I know who were vaccinated. We have to travel across the world to a vaccine of less tested pedigree. I think the vaccines approved in the US, UK, or EU are safe. I'm happy to see all are testing more vaccines to increase the supply.

One has to consider the risk of being crippled by Covid19 vs. the risk of the vaccine. For those having strokes, I bet they are in the 1 in 40,000 chance of dying every day anyway. How did the placebo group do? e.g., in the same age group who weren't vaccinated in the same city, how many died? Then we ratio by population. Only then can we have a full discussion once we have full data.

I've looked at an incredible amount of data. It says people are more likely to live with a vaccine. More importantly, serious cases are less likely and since serious cases often come with crippling damage, I'm much more cocerned about stopping that. I fear a life as a cripple. I do not fear death.

Lightsaber
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:34 pm

USA is now implementing 2 million shots per day. I will be happier when that breaks 6.7 million if not 10 million:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fauci ... r-BB1el4vk

I just found an interesting tidbit:
https://www.berkshireeagle.com/opinion/ ... ee292.html

Nearly 75,000 human trials were conducted between the top five vaccines — Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax, Astra-Zeneca and Johnson & Johnson. Out of those 75,000 subjects, zero died from COVID-19, zero were hospitalized 28 days after receiving a vaccine and zero died from the vaccine. This strongly suggests that the vaccines going into Americans’ arms right now are, in fact, very effective and very safe.

Considering he huge excess deaths of 2020, that is encouraging.

In just a few months, thanks to vaccines, we will be able to open up where the vaccinated are safe. The UnVax will experience the 4th wave. Cest la vie.

Lightsaber
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c933103
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:52 pm

Actually, come to think of it, with 50.4% effective rate claimed by SinoVac, even if a given population is universally vaccinated it will still not be able to provide herd immunity, for any R0 higher than 2?
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art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:46 am

lightsaber wrote:
The US has pulled up to 0.65 doses per hundred people (7 day trailing average). I will be much happier when that breaks 2.0 or even 3.0:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Lightsaber


Would be great to reach 2% or 3% of the population being jabbed per day - pretty much everyone in the country in 30-50 days. That would require a lot of vaccine being produced very quickly, being distributed very quickly, being administered very quickly.

In England there are far more vaccination nodes than there were 2 months ago but the % of the population being jabbed each day has declined rather than risen over the last 6 weeks. The only explanation I can think of is that there is a shortage of the vaccines approved for use in the UK.

In 3 months we have given a first dose to over 33% of the population. In another month the number of people requiring a second jab each day (needed after a 12 week interval) will exceed the number of people currently receiving a first jab each day. Unless the vaccination rate increases, the people receiving a second dose will account for almost all vaccinations (effectively halting progress towards herd immunity).
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:54 am

Dalhi Lama has received AZ vaccine:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medica ... d=BingNews

'In order to prevent some serious problems, this injection is very, very helpful,' he said.

I must admire his approach.
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BaconButty
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:17 am

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The US has pulled up to 0.65 doses per hundred people (7 day trailing average). I will be much happier when that breaks 2.0 or even 3.0:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Lightsaber


Would be great to reach 2% or 3% of the population being jabbed per day - pretty much everyone in the country in 30-50 days. That would require a lot of vaccine being produced very quickly, being distributed very quickly, being administered very quickly.

In England there are far more vaccination nodes than there were 2 months ago but the % of the population being jabbed each day has declined rather than risen over the last 6 weeks. The only explanation I can think of is that there is a shortage of the vaccines approved for use in the UK.

In 3 months we have given a first dose to over 33% of the population. In another month the number of people requiring a second jab each day (needed after a 12 week interval) will exceed the number of people currently receiving a first jab each day. Unless the vaccination rate increases, the people receiving a second dose will account for almost all vaccinations (effectively halting progress towards herd immunity).


Art,

The lull is claimed to be down to stocking up for second doses. I'm not convinced, but either way we're about to se a big jump:
The letter confirms: 'From the week of 15 March we are now asking systems to plan and support all vaccination centres and local vaccination services to deliver around twice the level of vaccine available in the week of 1 March.'

It makes clear that from 11 March 'vaccine supply will increase substantially and be sustained at a higher level for several weeks'.

https://www.gponline.com/vaccine-supply ... le/1708896

The totals for last week look like being around 2.4m. We should be getting deliveries of 19m in the first four weeks of March, evidently there's more lag than my crappy spreadsheet factored in, but everything points to 4.5-5m per week for a good four weeks, probably dropping to 4m after that.

Now as of 3rd Jan less than 1.4m had had their first jab, so if they were strictly following the 12 week gap there should be barely any 2nd jabs. But that clearly isn't the case. So another 13m doses by the end of March, 4m of which are second doses sounds realistic. And just about right for groups 1-9 to be offered a jab.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
art
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Re: Updated: A COVID-19 vaccine candidate works!

Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:29 pm

@BaconButty

Thanks for the info. If we can double the jab rate in the coming couple of weeks and maintain it at 3.5 million to 4 million a week (in England it was just over 2 million in last 7 days), that will be a great achievement.

Based on that increased vaccination rate and on 2nd doses being administered 84 days after the 1st, my spreadsheet predicts 70% of the England population having received a 1st dose by end May and 70% having received a 2nd dose in early July. At which point we will have achieved nominal herd immunity, won't we? Yippeee!!

PS Those dates assume only 2 dose vaccines are used. Use of some single dose vaccines will bring those dates forward
PPS I am aware that herd immunity is linked to the transmission rate of the virus variant concerned - hence the use of 'nominal'

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