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par13del
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Mar 27, 2021 4:46 pm

c933103 wrote:
par13del wrote:
c933103 wrote:
A question
Given the increasing prominence of strains featuring E484K mutation, and given the reportedly relative ease for mRNA vaccine makers to adopt their vaccine according to newly mutated strains, and the reportedly short time span needed for such adaptation, given that E484K mutation have already been known to reduce effectiveness of immunity established from other strains, why haven't vaccine makers start making vaccine variants that would work against E484K?

The question I would ask is how long would it take the authorities to certify the change, paperwork may be the largest hold up, not the science.

Based on what is taking place, the authorities require a test group of significant size and demographics. Existing production facilities are not meeting stated output but modification must be made to accommodate the new variant, not an easy task with existing certified facilities. Proper documentation of the test group and equipment changes must be maintained and submitted for inspection and approval.

As has been seen, the public support the authority of the regulators whether scientific or otherwise, the easy thing may be to suspend production while switching, but the risk there is too great. One, the current vaccines work and are 100 times better than nothing, two, you have to be sure there will be no complications from the new version before taking the leap.
I suspect they are working on the new version but due to the scale of the pandemic the resources are the limiting factor, not the science.

I thought that wouldn't be required, in the same way annual flu shot wouldn't need to be recertified every year?

Well you just seen this week that the USA still had issues with data AZ submitted even though millions of doses have already been administered in other nations, why would the certification of other variant of the vaccine be any different? Each regulator has their own certification requirements.
The EU had issues with AZ vaccine produced in factory not yet certified because AZ did not submit the paperwork, claim is that was being used to hide doses, circumvent etc etc etc, such issues will continue.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:38 pm

https://www.news.gov.hk/chi/2021/03/202 ... 1_450.html
Hong Kong: Following the suspension of Pfizer vaccine vaccination in Hong Kong due to packaging defect as announced by China's Fuxing Group, Hong Kong Government claim that BioNTech and Fuxing (vaccine distributor in Greater China region) say, No obvious cause to Pfizer vaccines with packaging defect in Hong Kong along the production, transportation, storage, and processing. Suspected to be caused by environmental factor due to long distance transport, but not related to cold chain or environmental management. They also claim that random inspection didn't discover leaks from those vaccines and deemed them to be still usable.
Given that Fuxxing is a Chinese company and now the other vaccines in Hong Kong is a Chinese one, and the Pfizer vaccine is more popular than the Chinese vaccine in term of vaccination rate, is this some steps trying to ensure the supremacy of Chinese export or other conspiracy with malicious intent against people who will take non-China-produced vaccines? I guess I am just thinking too much
Anyway, the good news is Hong Kong have now hit the level of zero new case of novel coronavirus hence there are little need to rush the vaccination program and little need to take the vaccine right now.
--------
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/ ... n-vaccine/ (English)
Paraguay: Paraguay say they received a Chinese vaccines offer, but the condition is they must break their diplomatic ties with Taiwan
--------
https://ctee.com.tw/livenews/chinatimes ... 728-260405
Taiwan: COVAX vaccine distribution have been delayed, but first batch is expected to deliver to all countries by the end of May
On the topic of Pifzer/BioNTech vaccine, after the previous public comment that China's Fuxing group have blocked Taiwan's attempt to buy Pifzer/BioNTech vaccine from Germany, BioNTech have publicly stated they will send vaccines to Taiwan, but Taiwan have not received additional comments from BioNTech since then. The Ministry of Health in Taiwan said they have contacted the Ministry of Diplomacy, and also their representative in Germany, and they would also ask the health department over there, but there are still no update available.
https://tw.appledaily.com/international ... RFCC24DYY/
Earlier in February, when Germany Minister of Economy and Energy Peter Altmaier mailed Taiwanese government asking for supply of automobile chip from TSMC, Taiwanese government floated the idea of providing chips in exchange for vaccine supply in their response mail, but report claim Germany refuse to answer the request as the issue is too sensitive and involve diplomacy across the Taiwan Strait
--------
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/08a28 ... 88d6a46de2
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/9dbd0 ... 60d5688583
Japan: After interviewing all major cities in Japan, and wards in Tokyo, 27.8% think they can vaccinate all elderly by the end of June this year, 22.2% think they can vaccinate all elderly by the end of July this year, 10.2% think they can vaccinate all elderly by the end of March 2022, and then another 39.8% say they cannot tell.
Among the 43 cities/districts who say they cannot tell when can they vaccinate all elderly, some of them say the lack of transparency in vaccine supply, or that the vaccine supply would fluctuate against time, are reason why they cannot give a proper finishing date.
89 of the 108 answered cities/districts say vaccination program for elderly will start mid-April
But also among these 108 cities/districts, only 8 say they have 100% necessary vaccine supply for all doctors. Only 9 say they have 100% necessary vaccine supply for nurses.
Among the 108 cities/districts answering the questionnaire, 104 of them feel lack of assurance due to uncertainty in whether they can get the needed amount of vaccine. 82 say they feel lack of assurance on whether the national government can provide proper information. Other factors that caused them to feel lack of assurance include to get enough doctor and nurses for the vaccination program, and to manage the appointment and vaccination record.
--------
In the comment area beneath the Japanese news linked above, a user suggested that maybe with the limited vaccine supply they should first be sent to hotspot area with high infection rate in order to lower the risk of those area. I guess regions with limited vaccine supply could consider such approach?
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art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:32 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Normally vaccines take years and normally they are 50% to 70% effective. The fact Covid19 mutates so fast is annoying (and deadly), so we will be getting boosters once or twice a year for the foreseeable future.

The amazing part is how effective Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZenica, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, and preliminary on Curevac is just as good.


I wonder why the vaccines are so remarkably effective. Some are based on 'new' technology (mRNA), some are not, yet several are ballpark 90% effective. This is much better than anticipated before trials started, isn't it?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:32 am

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Normally vaccines take years and normally they are 50% to 70% effective. The fact Covid19 mutates so fast is annoying (and deadly), so we will be getting boosters once or twice a year for the foreseeable future.

The amazing part is how effective Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZenica, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, and preliminary on Curevac is just as good.


I wonder why the vaccines are so remarkably effective. Some are based on 'new' technology (mRNA), some are not, yet several are ballpark 90% effective. This is much better than anticipated before trials started, isn't it?

Vaccine certification is very conservative. They were not doing mass vaccines. The mRNA performed closely to the predictions of the only vaccine expert I socialize with, who was focused purely on influenza applications.

The others have been exceptional. I cannot explain why J&J or AZ are as successful as they are. My... bias would have predicted otherwise. Thankfully the wise decision was made to support two of every type of vaccine and... it wasn't one set. The UK set and US set have overlap and their own candidates (e.g. UK didn't sponsor Moderna, but just bought some later, the US didn't sponsor CureVac or Valneva, the UK did).

However, I avoided the vaccines that... do not seem to be effecting disease propogation sufficiently. e.g., something is wrong with caseload in the UAE and Chile vs. vaccine rates. Now here I have to council myself that vaccines take time to work. Well just say two vaccines concern me.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

I like to create models. If I assume all vaccinations in the UK are AZ and all in Israel are Pfizer, I can show well enough to convince myself the UK is trending as did Israel, just with a fractionally less effective Vaccine (AZ is doing better than the ratio of effectiveness). e.g., I can model them identically for virus propogation just assuming a few less UK residents are vaccinated than reality.

When I apply this to the UAE, boink... The vaccine effectiveness is much less than the ratio of effectivity published. Chile is so early in the vaccine program, I question the time to effectiveness but also vaccine effectiveness.

So some might be luck.

Lightsaber
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yonahleung
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 5:51 am

lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Normally vaccines take years and normally they are 50% to 70% effective. The fact Covid19 mutates so fast is annoying (and deadly), so we will be getting boosters once or twice a year for the foreseeable future.

The amazing part is how effective Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZenica, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, and preliminary on Curevac is just as good.


I wonder why the vaccines are so remarkably effective. Some are based on 'new' technology (mRNA), some are not, yet several are ballpark 90% effective. This is much better than anticipated before trials started, isn't it?

Vaccine certification is very conservative. They were not doing mass vaccines. The mRNA performed closely to the predictions of the only vaccine expert I socialize with, who was focused purely on influenza applications.

The others have been exceptional. I cannot explain why J&J or AZ are as successful as they are. My... bias would have predicted otherwise. Thankfully the wise decision was made to support two of every type of vaccine and... it wasn't one set. The UK set and US set have overlap and their own candidates (e.g. UK didn't sponsor Moderna, but just bought some later, the US didn't sponsor CureVac or Valneva, the UK did).

However, I avoided the vaccines that... do not seem to be effecting disease propogation sufficiently. e.g., something is wrong with caseload in the UAE and Chile vs. vaccine rates. Now here I have to council myself that vaccines take time to work. Well just say two vaccines concern me.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

I like to create models. If I assume all vaccinations in the UK are AZ and all in Israel are Pfizer, I can show well enough to convince myself the UK is trending as did Israel, just with a fractionally less effective Vaccine (AZ is doing better than the ratio of effectiveness). e.g., I can model them identically for virus propogation just assuming a few less UK residents are vaccinated than reality.

When I apply this to the UAE, boink... The vaccine effectiveness is much less than the ratio of effectivity published. Chile is so early in the vaccine program, I question the time to effectiveness but also vaccine effectiveness.

So some might be luck.

Lightsaber

It may be luck. Or someone is cooking the numbers.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:11 am

lightsaber wrote:
However, I avoided the vaccines that... do not seem to be effecting disease propogation sufficiently. e.g., something is wrong with caseload in the UAE and Chile vs. vaccine rates. Now here I have to council myself that vaccines take time to work. Well just say two vaccines concern me.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

My understanding is UAE use SinoPharm and Chile use SinoVac vaccines?
What about other countries like Serbia and Hungary?
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:42 am

lightsaber wrote:
I like to create models. If I assume all vaccinations in the UK are AZ and all in Israel are Pfizer, I can show well enough to convince myself the UK is trending as did Israel, just with a fractionally less effective Vaccine (AZ is doing better than the ratio of effectiveness). e.g., I can model them identically for virus propogation just assuming a few less UK residents are vaccinated than reality.


I think you assumption for Israel is correct. I'm not sure if all the vaccine jabs were Pfizer/BioNTech or if a few also were Moderna. But that shouldn't change much in your model since both are nMRA vaccines.

But for your UK model, the split is more like 50:50 AZ and Pfizer/BioNTech. Also most 2nd jab were Pfizer/BioNTech.
The UK has the "yellow card" reporting for vaccine side effects. And from there we can get information about the vaccine split. From there most recent weekly report:
This safety update report is based on detailed analysis of data up to 14 March 2021. At this date, an estimated 10.9 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 13.7 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 1.3 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered. This represents an increase of 2.3 million on the previous week, predominately Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -reporting


If you want to improve the data for your model even more, you can find the older weekly reports here:
https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://w ... -reporting

I looked at a few reports:
up to 24 January 2021. an estimated 5.4 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 1.5 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 0.5 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered.
up to 7 February 2021. an estimated 7.5 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 5 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 0.5 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered.
up to 28 February 2021. At this date, an estimated 10.7 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 9.7 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 0.8 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered.


Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 10:05 am

I do not know how much vaccine is 'in stock' in the UK. nor how much AZ vaccine from from UK plants is scheduled to join the stock in the next month. UK has a jab, wait 12 weeks, jab again policy.

Data for England show that up to Jan 11 first dose value was 1.96 million.
12 weeks later (Apr 5) one would expect second dose value to be 1.96 million.
On Mar 25 second dose value was 2.03 million (ahead of schedule), yet the number of second jabs given 26 Mar and 27 Mar shot up to over 200,000 on those days.

I am starting to wonder if UK is now so uncertain of how much vaccine will become available in the next weeks that it is trying to ensure that 2nd jabs due in the next few weeks are given early. Why else suddenly give so many people an early 2nd jab?

Just to add to that, I have not checked but I seem to recollect that data are appearing to show the 2nd jab produces good results after an interval of more than 12 weeks. Might an extension of the interval between jabs prove to be a way of mitigating vaccine delivery shortfalls?
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:32 am

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... arly-trial
AstraZeneca efficiency against B.1.351, aka the strain from South Africa, is only 10.4% effective, with confident interval of (-76.8% ~ 54.8%).
The article simply say the vaccine have no efficiency against the variant jn preventing mild to moderate cases, given the result
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dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:57 am

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
However, I avoided the vaccines that... do not seem to be effecting disease propogation sufficiently. e.g., something is wrong with caseload in the UAE and Chile vs. vaccine rates. Now here I have to council myself that vaccines take time to work. Well just say two vaccines concern me.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

My understanding is UAE use SinoPharm and Chile use SinoVac vaccines?
What about other countries like Serbia and Hungary?


I believe Serbia and Hungary used Sputnik V.
All posts are just opinions.
 
marcelh
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:05 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
However, I avoided the vaccines that... do not seem to be effecting disease propogation sufficiently. e.g., something is wrong with caseload in the UAE and Chile vs. vaccine rates. Now here I have to council myself that vaccines take time to work. Well just say two vaccines concern me.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

My understanding is UAE use SinoPharm and Chile use SinoVac vaccines?
What about other countries like Serbia and Hungary?


I believe Serbia and Hungary used Sputnik V.

Both countries also use Chinese vaccines. President Orbán (Hungary) has been vaccinated with the Cinese vaccine, but politics aren’t involved......
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:51 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
However, I avoided the vaccines that... do not seem to be effecting disease propogation sufficiently. e.g., something is wrong with caseload in the UAE and Chile vs. vaccine rates. Now here I have to council myself that vaccines take time to work. Well just say two vaccines concern me.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

My understanding is UAE use SinoPharm and Chile use SinoVac vaccines?
What about other countries like Serbia and Hungary?


I believe Serbia and Hungary used Sputnik V.

For Serbia apparently China shipped the majority of their supply

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/serbia- ... ne/2148611

Serbia received 1.5 million doses of coronavirus vaccines developed by China's Sinopharm as well as 19,500 vaccines developed by Pfizer/BioNTech and 250,000 doses of Russia's Sputnik V vaccine.

Another 50,000 doses of the Sputnik V vaccine, 88,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine, and 125,000-150,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine are due in the country by the end of February.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:05 pm

c933103 wrote:
For Serbia apparently China shipped the majority of their supply

marcelh wrote:
Both countries also use Chinese vaccines. President Orbán (Hungary) has been vaccinated with the Cinese vaccine, but politics aren’t involved......


Sputnik V did a better job with trails and peer reviews, only issue, demography is not diverse enough, which is not a real concern.
SinoPharm is mostly trailed outside China, reason being not enough cases within the country.

I know expat families including children and elderly who got SinoPharm in January, even before China approved the vaccine. I was in shock, but they were happy.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 5:19 pm

Israel daily cases and deaths continue to plummet! :hyper:
I noted they dropped from the #25 ranked country in 2021 to #27 in terms of total number of infections. Ok, not a big deal, but I'm curious where their ranking will end up.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

I hope they can reverse their plummet in vaccination rates per day, alas, I suspect that will only change when the vaccine is approved for children:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Unfortunately, when you look at global daily new cases, there is no question, the 4th wave is well established:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The E484K variants looks to be gaining traction (prior exposure provides far less immunity). Wow... it is taking a lot of effort to track these new variants:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... -York.aspx

The E484K mutation has been previously identified in other variants of concern — such as B.1.351 and P.1 — and has been implicated in variants’ improved transmissibility and ability to cause severe infection. The mutation has also been known to be resistant to neutralizing antibodies.


That said, all the Western vaccines (upthread) seem to at least prevent hospitalization.

The UK has a steady case load of about 5500 new cases a day. France is in a tough spot (7 day average just broke 36k) and I wish them well to reverse this issue:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/


yonahleung wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:

I wonder why the vaccines are so remarkably effective. Some are based on 'new' technology (mRNA), some are not, yet several are ballpark 90% effective. This is much better than anticipated before trials started, isn't it?

Vaccine certification is very conservative. They were not doing mass vaccines. The mRNA performed closely to the predictions of the only vaccine expert I socialize with, who was focused purely on influenza applications.

The others have been exceptional. I cannot explain why J&J or AZ are as successful as they are. My... bias would have predicted otherwise. Thankfully the wise decision was made to support two of every type of vaccine and... it wasn't one set. The UK set and US set have overlap and their own candidates (e.g. UK didn't sponsor Moderna, but just bought some later, the US didn't sponsor CureVac or Valneva, the UK did).

However, I avoided the vaccines that... do not seem to be effecting disease propogation sufficiently. e.g., something is wrong with caseload in the UAE and Chile vs. vaccine rates. Now here I have to council myself that vaccines take time to work. Well just say two vaccines concern me.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

I like to create models. If I assume all vaccinations in the UK are AZ and all in Israel are Pfizer, I can show well enough to convince myself the UK is trending as did Israel, just with a fractionally less effective Vaccine (AZ is doing better than the ratio of effectiveness). e.g., I can model them identically for virus propogation just assuming a few less UK residents are vaccinated than reality.

When I apply this to the UAE, boink... The vaccine effectiveness is much less than the ratio of effectivity published. Chile is so early in the vaccine program, I question the time to effectiveness but also vaccine effectiveness.

So some might be luck.

Lightsaber

It may be luck. Or someone is cooking the numbers.

What do you mean by "cooking the numbers?" Most nations report excess deaths. With the US numbers falling, all is well.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

I had links on this a few pages back upthread:
Now, the UK data lags (instead of being revised up), so I cannot compare the downslide, but in 3 or 4 months, we can, so they cannot hide cooked numbers. Since the prior UK excess deaths are accounted for in Covid19 deaths, their numbers haven't been off a bit and therefor should be believed.
Brazil's excess deaths also perfectly account for all Covid19 deaths, they will correct deaths a bit later to ensure accuracy.

In the UK and Israel, the reduction in cases cannot be explained other than by the vaccination drive.
Brazil hasn't vaccinated enough to know (until the vaccination rate breaks a third of the population, it just doesn't dilute the spread enough to matter).
The UAE has administered 80.48 doses per hundred. With a 7 day running average of new cases above 2,000, they are not doing as well as Israel did for the same level of vaccination and since they have vaccinated more than the UK, they have unfortunately become a case study in vaccine effectiveness (80.48 doses per hundred in UAE vs. UK's 48.64 doses per hundred).

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -emirates/

Of course we need to wait for a higher fraction, but AZ seems to be punching above its effectivity. :box:
Pfizer is definitely as good as effectivity as all the various links I posted upthread show. Due to the preponderance of evidence already shown in the thread, that shouldn't be in doubt.

We will have to see on Chile and the UAE. There are some countries I question the data. In the case of the UAE, they need to open up for travel and the data trend is the opposite of if the data were to be manipulated, so the first cut says trust the data if bad.

So all indications are all the Western vaccines are doing really well. I'd like to see more data on Covaxin. I just haven't seen enough data to make an opinion on real world effectiveness (vs. test efficacy).

I personally wonder at all the trashing of AZ when the real world data is showing its vaccine is pretty darn amazing. Considering the UK is in the cross hairs of the B.1.1.7 blight, this is very impressive.

Part of this is we need to figure out which vaccines work the best.
I like NovaVax's idea of vaccinating the control group with another vaccine and the test group with NovaVax. That seems incredibly fair to me (I posted the link just a few posts ago).


LIghtsaber
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yonahleung
Posts: 79
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 5:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Israel daily cases and deaths continue to plummet! :hyper:
I noted they dropped from the #25 ranked country in 2021 to #27 in terms of total number of infections. Ok, not a big deal, but I'm curious where their ranking will end up.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

I hope they can reverse their plummet in vaccination rates per day, alas, I suspect that will only change when the vaccine is approved for children:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Unfortunately, when you look at global daily new cases, there is no question, the 4th wave is well established:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The E484K variants looks to be gaining traction (prior exposure provides far less immunity). Wow... it is taking a lot of effort to track these new variants:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... -York.aspx

The E484K mutation has been previously identified in other variants of concern — such as B.1.351 and P.1 — and has been implicated in variants’ improved transmissibility and ability to cause severe infection. The mutation has also been known to be resistant to neutralizing antibodies.


That said, all the Western vaccines (upthread) seem to at least prevent hospitalization.

The UK has a steady case load of about 5500 new cases a day. France is in a tough spot (7 day average just broke 36k) and I wish them well to reverse this issue:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/


yonahleung wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Vaccine certification is very conservative. They were not doing mass vaccines. The mRNA performed closely to the predictions of the only vaccine expert I socialize with, who was focused purely on influenza applications.

The others have been exceptional. I cannot explain why J&J or AZ are as successful as they are. My... bias would have predicted otherwise. Thankfully the wise decision was made to support two of every type of vaccine and... it wasn't one set. The UK set and US set have overlap and their own candidates (e.g. UK didn't sponsor Moderna, but just bought some later, the US didn't sponsor CureVac or Valneva, the UK did).

However, I avoided the vaccines that... do not seem to be effecting disease propogation sufficiently. e.g., something is wrong with caseload in the UAE and Chile vs. vaccine rates. Now here I have to council myself that vaccines take time to work. Well just say two vaccines concern me.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

I like to create models. If I assume all vaccinations in the UK are AZ and all in Israel are Pfizer, I can show well enough to convince myself the UK is trending as did Israel, just with a fractionally less effective Vaccine (AZ is doing better than the ratio of effectiveness). e.g., I can model them identically for virus propogation just assuming a few less UK residents are vaccinated than reality.

When I apply this to the UAE, boink... The vaccine effectiveness is much less than the ratio of effectivity published. Chile is so early in the vaccine program, I question the time to effectiveness but also vaccine effectiveness.

So some might be luck.

Lightsaber

It may be luck. Or someone is cooking the numbers.

What do you mean by "cooking the numbers?" Most nations report excess deaths. With the US numbers falling, all is well.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

I had links on this a few pages back upthread:
Now, the UK data lags (instead of being revised up), so I cannot compare the downslide, but in 3 or 4 months, we can, so they cannot hide cooked numbers. Since the prior UK excess deaths are accounted for in Covid19 deaths, their numbers haven't been off a bit and therefor should be believed.
Brazil's excess deaths also perfectly account for all Covid19 deaths, they will correct deaths a bit later to ensure accuracy.

In the UK and Israel, the reduction in cases cannot be explained other than by the vaccination drive.
Brazil hasn't vaccinated enough to know (until the vaccination rate breaks a third of the population, it just doesn't dilute the spread enough to matter).
The UAE has administered 80.48 doses per hundred. With a 7 day running average of new cases above 2,000, they are not doing as well as Israel did for the same level of vaccination and since they have vaccinated more than the UK, they have unfortunately become a case study in vaccine effectiveness (80.48 doses per hundred in UAE vs. UK's 48.64 doses per hundred).

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -emirates/

Of course we need to wait for a higher fraction, but AZ seems to be punching above its effectivity. :box:
Pfizer is definitely as good as effectivity as all the various links I posted upthread show. Due to the preponderance of evidence already shown in the thread, that shouldn't be in doubt.

We will have to see on Chile and the UAE. There are some countries I question the data. In the case of the UAE, they need to open up for travel and the data trend is the opposite of if the data were to be manipulated, so the first cut says trust the data if bad.

So all indications are all the Western vaccines are doing really well. I'd like to see more data on Covaxin. I just haven't seen enough data to make an opinion on real world effectiveness (vs. test efficacy).

I personally wonder at all the trashing of AZ when the real world data is showing its vaccine is pretty darn amazing. Considering the UK is in the cross hairs of the B.1.1.7 blight, this is very impressive.

Part of this is we need to figure out which vaccines work the best.
I like NovaVax's idea of vaccinating the control group with another vaccine and the test group with NovaVax. That seems incredibly fair to me (I posted the link just a few posts ago).


LIghtsaber

I mean...How can Sinopharm and Sinovac have anywhere near their claimed efficacy when you see Chile's and UAE's numbers?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 6:04 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The UK set and US set have overlap and their own candidates (e.g. UK didn't sponsor Moderna, but just bought some later, the US didn't sponsor CureVac or Valneva, the UK did).


Dear Lightsaber,

Concerning Valneva:
I don't know if you have already seen this link. The company expects approval in Q4 2021.
https://valneva.com/research-developmen ... 9-vla2001/

Also I don't have they link at hand, but their trial will take place in the UK, and since so many people are already vaccineted they asked if they could make the trail against a vaccineted group instead of a placebo group (tought that was interesting).

In France their is some debate about why the UK was allowed to swoop in. Their are some conflicting reports if the french government even offered them some help. The reason given by Valneva CEO to take the UK offer was their own existing production facility in Scotland (now expended with help from the UK government).
Still, as of now, the production will be dependent on factories on the continent (plants in Sweden and Austria).

Concerning CureVac:
While the British involvement certainly helps, it's mostly a German story, with the government even being a shareholder...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com ... a-53809682

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:40 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The UK set and US set have overlap and their own candidates (e.g. UK didn't sponsor Moderna, but just bought some later, the US didn't sponsor CureVac or Valneva, the UK did).


Dear Lightsaber,

Concerning Valneva:
I don't know if you have already seen this link. The company expects approval in Q4 2021.
https://valneva.com/research-developmen ... 9-vla2001/

Also I don't have they link at hand, but their trial will take place in the UK, and since so many people are already vaccineted they asked if they could make the trail against a vaccineted group instead of a placebo group (tought that was interesting).

In France their is some debate about why the UK was allowed to swoop in. Their are some conflicting reports if the french government even offered them some help. The reason given by Valneva CEO to take the UK offer was their own existing production facility in Scotland (now expended with help from the UK government).
Still, as of now, the production will be dependent on factories on the continent (plants in Sweden and Austria).

Concerning CureVac:
While the British involvement certainly helps, it's mostly a German story, with the government even being a shareholder...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com ... a-53809682

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

I posted links of Valneva, and Novavax production started in the UK. Curevac is looking to be a bit late to the game. I speculate the UK will hold off approving these vaccines (at least I would) until they have a sufficient stockpile.

At this point, the trials should be against other vaccines, not unvaccinated. Even against a prior vaccinated group (although, that in my opinion puts a new vaccine at a disadvantage). I also believe in crossover studies (everyone gets vaccinated, eventually).

It will all depend on production. J&J with Catalent, who has plants in Italy as well as the US, is now doing better:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fda-a ... NewsSearch

I haven't been able to find out when the IDT and Sanofi plants will start delivering J&J. Does anyone know? Merck I previously posted is July.

Latest link on IDT and Takeda, which is very future tense on production:
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/takeda- ... 21-03-15-0

We are near enough for the US and EU to have enough vaccines, but production for all keeps missing plan.

I keep looking for a sharp change of slope in the vaccination rates:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

In particular, I down select to this chart:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union

I keep hearing about more vaccine in future tense, but I'm not seeing the US or EU slopes going at the rate they need to. :(
While the UK has the current variants under control, I am of the opinion that previously infected population is helping keep down the UK rate. This brings concern to the unvaccinated with the E484K variants. :(

So I read about future tense accomplishments on vaccination. But if I model the vaccine rates, they curves just aren't arching up that quickly. The best indicator of future performance is past performance. While I realize new factories (supply constraint eased) should increase the slope, I see factories come online and the slopes keep up on prior trends.

I have become incredibly cynical on the politicians promises (all of them) as if we go back to promises of 60 days ago, they were not met.

Back in January:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ti-vaxxers
Türeci told the magazine the EU had assumed there would be “a basket of different suppliers” to choose from. “Such an approach makes sense. But then at some point it became clear that many would be unable to deliver so quickly,” she said. “By that time it was too late to make up for under-ordering.”

The US ordered 600m doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine in July, while the EU waited until November to order half as many. Şahin said the firms were now working flat-out to increase production and “fill a hole due to a lack of other approved vaccines”.

He said BioNTech aimed to get a new manufacturing plant up and running in Marburg, Germany, in February, “far earlier than planned”. It should be able to produce 250m doses in the first half of 2021.

I'm curious as to the actual production of that plant. For to meet 250m doses, that assumes getting to full production immediately. Pardon me for being skeptical as I cannot increase production without a ramp (there is always a learning curve). In particular, chemical and biological processes need time to optimize...
https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufactur ... ction-push

So we will see. There is an added factory being added to the Pfizer effort in that above link I wasn't aware of before (I didn't know it existed).

I hope to be proven wrong. e.g., I hope the two Catalent factories producing J&J exceed my expectations. But this is a race to > 60% full vaccination rate (at a minimum) and eventually 70%+ vaccinated (needed for true herd immunity).

So let us see how the summer goes,
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:32 pm

lightsaber wrote:
So let us see how the summer goes,


Of course at the end we only can hope. But I'm rather confident about Europe vaccine ramp up. In my comment in the European thread about Mr. Breton promised Herd immunity to the French for July 14. If he doesn't deliver (I mean misses by a large number) his political career is over.

About your comment on vaccinating the world, it will take some time but I think the signs are promising:
By August some US and EU production should be freed. Considering 600 Mio booster are needed, and the two having, at this point a production capacity of about 2 to 3 billion jabs/year and still ramping up, it frees 200 to 300 Mio Jabs for the rest of the world.
Also despite all the talk about EU's export bans, they still will export about 300 Mio jabs to allies and others.
While AZ has trouble ramping up, they too will deliver several 100 millions of jabs to the rest of the world. And we have Novavax and CureVac comming online, and the Chinese and Russian are also producing. We won't be finished by 2021 but have done great step towards it (I'm certain).

Btw, I didn't find news that CureVac would be missing a Q2 certification, do you know more?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:27 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
So let us see how the summer goes,


Of course at the end we only can hope. But I'm rather confident about Europe vaccine ramp up. In my comment in the European thread about Mr. Breton promised Herd immunity to the French for July 14. If he doesn't deliver (I mean misses by a large number) his political career is over.

About your comment on vaccinating the world, it will take some time but I think the signs are promising:
By August some US and EU production should be freed. Considering 600 Mio booster are needed, and the two having, at this point a production capacity of about 2 to 3 billion jabs/year and still ramping up, it frees 200 to 300 Mio Jabs for the rest of the world.
Also despite all the talk about EU's export bans, they still will export about 300 Mio jabs to allies and others.
While AZ has trouble ramping up, they too will deliver several 100 millions of jabs to the rest of the world. And we have Novavax and CureVac comming online, and the Chinese and Russian are also producing. We won't be finished by 2021 but have done great step towards it (I'm certain).

Btw, I didn't find news that CureVac would be missing a Q2 certification, do you know more?

I think quite a few political careers are over if they guessed wrong. I *really* want to be proven a cynical old man and shown far more vaccine will be out by July than I currently see the trend.

To heavily vaccinate by mid-July, this curve must already turn up for any major nation:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union

I'm not seeing the turn up. I hope the sudden increase in J&J expected from Catalent hopefully shows up in the charts of the US and EU soon.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fda-a ... NewsSearch

I am excited about any new capacity. I'm fully aware we will be in shortage and then oversupply for the Western countries, at which point we need to start helping the rest of the world vaccinate their billions while preparing for the E484K variants. So I see a need for many more jabs in 2021 than most predict. Again, I hope to be proven wrong.

There are only going to be 420 million doses of vaccine for Europe by mid-July.
https://news.yahoo.com/eus-breton-hopes ... 45019.html

I'm getting lost in the math on how that provides 450 million people herd immunity. I'm also a cynic seeing that sum missed by some amount (we can debate how much and there is an area I really hope to be proven wrong). Since J&J really starts 2H 2021, that means 200 million or so vaccinated. When I look at Israel, they had trouble through March 7th, when the 7 day average in cases started to plumet:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

On March 7th, Israel had 101 doses per 100 people administered. So that implies the EU needs to actually have jabbed 455+ million doses.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union

So close, so close. But it will be very dependent upon supply actually meeting promise. I see the estimates for Pfizer exceeding prior ramp rates.

Lightsaber


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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:23 am

lightsaber wrote:
There are only going to be 420 million doses of vaccine for Europe by mid-July.
https://news.yahoo.com/eus-breton-hopes ... 45019.html

I'm getting lost in the math on how that provides 450 million people herd immunity. I'm also a cynic seeing that sum missed by some amount (we can debate how much and there is an area I really hope to be proven wrong).


Would they (cheekily) have included the number of recovered and asymptomatic infected people as part of that herd immunity calculation?
It's not unreasonable to think that 30+% of Europe has been exposed to the virus already.

I wish we had more data on the incidence rate of reinfections and the actual immunity that previous exposure provides.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:58 am

Francoflier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
There are only going to be 420 million doses of vaccine for Europe by mid-July.
https://news.yahoo.com/eus-breton-hopes ... 45019.html

I'm getting lost in the math on how that provides 450 million people herd immunity. I'm also a cynic seeing that sum missed by some amount (we can debate how much and there is an area I really hope to be proven wrong).


Would they (cheekily) have included the number of recovered and asymptomatic infected people as part of that herd immunity calculation?
It's not unreasonable to think that 30+% of Europe has been exposed to the virus already.

I wish we had more data on the incidence rate of reinfections and the actual immunity that previous exposure provides.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


Let us look at infections per day per million population (I just search and accept the latest population), I use 7 day average

1st number all cases per day per million population from 7 day average of cases/population in millions
High numbers are bad.

France: 560 from 37,570 new cases per day/67.06 million population
Brazil: 363 from 76,636/211
Italy: 344 from 20,718/60.3
Chile: 338 from 6472/19.12
========================
UAE 217 from 2120/9.77
Germany: 200 from 16621/83.1
USA: 185 from 60,995/330
*******Selected states (on my whim)*****
*** New Jersey: 493: from 4395/8.91
*** Michigan 425 from: 4249/10
*** New York: 409 from 7993/19.54
*** Massachusetts: 308 2123/6.9***
*** Florida: 235 from 5093/21.57
*** Texas: 116 From 3320/28.7
*** California: 92 from 2635/39.56

============================

Spain: 94 from 4420/6.7
UK: 79 from 5208/66
Israel: 66 from 593 new cases per /9.05 million population

We can see a pattern. The UK and Israel make sense as they are very heavily vaccinated and the UK was locked down until recently.
Spain is an outlier for a low vaccinated country, but just had a brutal lockdown.

Chile and the UAE aren't really getting a benefit from the non-Western vaccines. :wideeyed:

So I would say, prior illness isn't helping much unless it was a recent prior illness (Spain). Spain is actually quite the outlier and I will be watching to see how it does.

Partially I picked the data to show the USA is getting complacent. Certain states seem to be having problems, I speculate because the B.1.220 variant is a E484K variant, in other words with the new protein spike and that variant seems to be going through the Northeast and into the mid-west. The USA has such a ridiculously high background infection level, we're ripe for issues.

Brazil and France have full hospitals and we should be able to agree herd immunity isn't helping them.

I broke the above into 3 levels of infection intensity. Above 300 cases per day per million, a mid ground, and below 100 cases per day per million.
Now viruses go in waves. California and Spain are doing well as they are coming out of prior infection waves.

I cannot provide data on re-infections, but it looks like the current wave is only playing nice with recent re-infections. My doctor warned me to get vaccinated before 12 weeks passed after having Covid19 as immunity fades after then. We also see the E484K re-infecting. So I am fully expecting another wave to hit the USA in 7 to 9 weeks. In fact, I would say it has already hit the Northeast and they just aren't yet recognizing it.

The UAE and Chile are doing a bit poor for their vaccination rates with non-Western vaccines. I hope it proves to be a time delay effect (the vaccine just takes longer to be effective).
The western vaccines seem to be doing really well (in 3 weeks, the traditional delay, in my opinion, of France to UK infections) will be the true test of the UK vaccination program.
Israel seems rather resilient now, but needs some more vaccine to be secure.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:23 am

Six months to start booster distribution - I might as well kiss this year goodbye folks... :weeping:

Seriously, f. E484k and the horses it rode it on.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:49 am

lightsaber wrote:
There are only going to be 420 million doses of vaccine for Europe by mid-July.
https://news.yahoo.com/eus-breton-hopes ... 45019.html
I'm getting lost in the math on how that provides 450 million people herd immunity.


Well, you have to play a little on the meaning of herd immunity:

Demand:
  • under 18 not vaccinated: 445 - 75 = 370 Mio
  • 80% over 18 vaccinated: 370 x 0.8 = 296 Mio

Supply:
  • vaccine jabs: 100 (Q1) + 420 (Q2+2 weeks July) = 520 Mio
  • "1-Jab" effect: 520 - 60 (J&J) = 460 Mio
  • fully vaccinated: 460/2 + 60 = 290 Mio

=> 296 ~ 290

You'll notice in my previous post, I freed some EU capacity by August. Some production will still be meeded for the under 18 year old and the few of the unvaccinated 20% that still might be convinced/pressured to take the vaccine.
I also took away 600 Mio vaccine production capacity for US and EU booster production.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:39 am

lightsaber wrote:
Brazil and France have full hospitals and we should be able to agree herd immunity isn't helping them.


But that's the thing, there's no way of saying that since even the most optimistic assumptions about the seroprevalence of this virus don't get us to herd immunity levels anywhere in the World yet.
Brazil and France haven't made a lot of headway on vaccinations either, so there is no way of telling that immunity from either previous exposure or vaccines is not having a protective effect since there is still a large proportion of the population which has no kind of immunity yet, unless there was some data on how many hospitalizations are repeat infections.
I'd note however that in France, despite the increasing number of infections since early December, the average daily death number has stagnated, with a slight decreasing trend. The Netherlands, Germany and Sweden are in a similar situation since February.
Whether any increased level of immunity is at play or whether the healthcare system is now better prepared to cope and treatments have improved is anyone's guess.

Then, even if previous exposure may not protect completely from re-infection, especially from new strains, there is no telling whether it may provide a protective effect, at least from getting severe symptoms.
We just don't know enough.

Vaccines, however, do seem to work very well, at least the Western ones as you say, as the UK and Israel are showing.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:44 am

lightsaber wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
There are only going to be 420 million doses of vaccine for Europe by mid-July.
https://news.yahoo.com/eus-breton-hopes ... 45019.html

I'm getting lost in the math on how that provides 450 million people herd immunity. I'm also a cynic seeing that sum missed by some amount (we can debate how much and there is an area I really hope to be proven wrong).


Would they (cheekily) have included the number of recovered and asymptomatic infected people as part of that herd immunity calculation?
It's not unreasonable to think that 30+% of Europe has been exposed to the virus already.

I wish we had more data on the incidence rate of reinfections and the actual immunity that previous exposure provides.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations


Let us look at infections per day per million population (I just search and accept the latest population), I use 7 day average

1st number all cases per day per million population from 7 day average of cases/population in millions
High numbers are bad.

France: 560 from 37,570 new cases per day/67.06 million population
Brazil: 363 from 76,636/211
Italy: 344 from 20,718/60.3
Chile: 338 from 6472/19.12
========================
UAE 217 from 2120/9.77
Germany: 200 from 16621/83.1
USA: 185 from 60,995/330
*******Selected states (on my whim)*****
*** New Jersey: 493: from 4395/8.91
*** Michigan 425 from: 4249/10
*** New York: 409 from 7993/19.54
*** Massachusetts: 308 2123/6.9***
*** Florida: 235 from 5093/21.57
*** Texas: 116 From 3320/28.7
*** California: 92 from 2635/39.56

============================

Spain: 94 from 4420/6.7
UK: 79 from 5208/66
Israel: 66 from 593 new cases per /9.05 million population

We can see a pattern. The UK and Israel make sense as they are very heavily vaccinated and the UK was locked down until recently.
Spain is an outlier for a low vaccinated country, but just had a brutal lockdown.


Spain had a lockdown which was on the line as other countries.

What Spain had is an actual 3rd wave as opposed to other countries which managed to flatten the curve. A reckless opening up which I believe some politicians actually called it "saving Christmas" just like in the UK.

Image

They're spreading what the UK and Spain just experienced over a longer period.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:05 am

c933103 wrote:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/03/astrazeneca-vaccine-doesnt-prevent-b1351-covid-early-trial
AstraZeneca efficiency against B.1.351, aka the strain from South Africa, is only 10.4% effective, with confident interval of (-76.8% ~ 54.8%).
The article simply say the vaccine have no efficiency against the variant jn preventing mild to moderate cases, given the result

You forgot to mention that even though it wasn't as effective, none of the "infected" patients were hospitalized.
Which is what all of this is about. Keeping hospital capacity / health care systems functional.
Not "elimination" of a virus.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:50 pm

Francoflier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Brazil and France have full hospitals and we should be able to agree herd immunity isn't helping them.


But that's the thing, there's no way of saying that since even the most optimistic assumptions about the seroprevalence of this virus don't get us to herd immunity levels anywhere in the World yet.
Brazil and France haven't made a lot of headway on vaccinations either, so there is no way of telling that immunity from either previous exposure or vaccines is not having a protective effect since there is still a large proportion of the population which has no kind of immunity yet, unless there was some data on how many hospitalizations are repeat infections.
I'd note however that in France, despite the increasing number of infections since early December, the average daily death number has stagnated, with a slight decreasing trend. The Netherlands, Germany and Sweden are in a similar situation since February.
Whether any increased level of immunity is at play or whether the healthcare system is now better prepared to cope and treatments have improved is anyone's guess.

Then, even if previous exposure may not protect completely from re-infection, especially from new strains, there is no telling whether it may provide a protective effect, at least from getting severe symptoms.
We just don't know enough.

Vaccines, however, do seem to work very well, at least the Western ones as you say, as the UK and Israel are showing.

I agree, the world isn't close to herd immunity. If that was the point you were making, we can agree. We will keep having new variations form through 2021.

France just last week filled up the ICUs in Paris, but has been able to export patients to other regions. If you can get patients on high flow oxygen, they don't die.
Sadly though, deaths trail cases by weeks. At this time France hasn't been hit badly by P.1 which seems to be the scary variety. I'm sure others are bad, but that is a wave yet to hit Europe.
I think part of what is helping France is they vaccinated the oldest. That helps reduce deaths and they vaccinated health care, that helps reduce the spread.

My sister is a lead doctor in a coronavirus ward and high flow oxygen and certain of the new medicines really help.

But death isn't my #1 concern. It is the permanent damage or long hauler issues with patients. Last week was a bad week for her despite it not being to patients dying under her care. One who had the horrible Tinnitus commited suicide as that individual couldn't take it anymore. What really bothered her was discharging two young people with such extensive lung scaring that they are crippled. With extensive physical therapy they should be able to walk up a set of stairs again, but not for a while.

Israel and the UK seem to be definitively benefiting from extensive vaccination. Spain is in lock down, but still doing very impressive (I did look at the charts).
We are definitely at a wave.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:32 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Whether any increased level of immunity is at play or whether the healthcare system is now better prepared to cope and treatments have improved is anyone's guess.

My thought is that it is a good bet that the hospitals have improved treatment options, just noting that the push to make millions of ventilators have died down as reality showed that they were not even 50% effective.
As for all the other malaria drugs that were being pushed and denied, now that political situations are clearing up, some of these drugs are actually being used.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:45 pm

5% of world population vaccinated:
https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/national ... NewsSearch


We have a long way to go... I am of the opinion everyone will need a booster.


par13del wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Whether any increased level of immunity is at play or whether the healthcare system is now better prepared to cope and treatments have improved is anyone's guess.

My thought is that it is a good bet that the hospitals have improved treatment options, just noting that the push to make millions of ventilators have died down as reality showed that they were not even 50% effective.
As for all the other malaria drugs that were being pushed and denied, now that political situations are clearing up, some of these drugs are actually being used.

In my sister's ward, it is more medicines to open up the lungs and high flow oxygen. There are new ways to treat patients, but high flow oxygen is key. This is why hospitals filling up is so bad.

My sister's ward has 2 to 3 fire inspections per day, as there is an incredible fire hazard. I believe something went awry here:
https://news.yahoo.com/news/fire-buildi ... 59575.html

Vaccinating the elderly keeps them out of the hospital. An over age 75 might take 5x the hospital days of an under 50. More Vaccine is better.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:38 pm

Another report from the CDC has been released today that indicate just one dose of Pfizer or Moderna is good for 80% coverage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-stu ... ctive.html

2 doses gives over 90%.

There is a good argument to be made that it might be better to give everyone one dose of these drugs and then go back with a booster later. Especially as the efficacy at one dose rivals J&J.

I for one have my second shot scheduled, but was wondering what everyone else thinks on this?
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:51 pm

casinterest wrote:
Another report from the CDC has been released today that indicate just one dose of Pfizer or Moderna is good for 80% coverage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-stu ... ctive.html

2 doses gives over 90%.

There is a good argument to be made that it might be better to give everyone one dose of these drugs and then go back with a booster later. Especially as the efficacy at one dose rivals J&J.

I for one have my second shot scheduled, but was wondering what everyone else thinks on this?

If I wear my tin foil hat for a second, now that the whole world is privy to all the back and forth about production not being met and deliveries delayed, it is comforting to know that the efficacy of the first dose is going up and up.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:58 pm

par13del wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Another report from the CDC has been released today that indicate just one dose of Pfizer or Moderna is good for 80% coverage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-stu ... ctive.html

2 doses gives over 90%.

There is a good argument to be made that it might be better to give everyone one dose of these drugs and then go back with a booster later. Especially as the efficacy at one dose rivals J&J.

I for one have my second shot scheduled, but was wondering what everyone else thinks on this?

If I wear my tin foil hat for a second, now that the whole world is privy to all the back and forth about production not being met and deliveries delayed, it is comforting to know that the efficacy of the first dose is going up and up.



The issue is that from the start Pfizer only tested the 2 dose solution, so all the numbers about 1 dose are coming in after the fact.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-relea ... 19-vaccine
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
T4thH
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:00 pm

According yesterday German TV, there seems now to be more and more cases of very young patients with "Long Covid" symptoms. It seems that 15% of patients/children, who have had COVID-19 (also without symptoms) later on have some "Long Covid" symptoms now. It is not fully clarified, if these were real "long Covid" symptoms or in part also issues regarding "lockdown" e.g.
There was also interviews with one case of a German women national basketball team (U 16) member, who is now not even able to perform the normal live regarding fatigue (and we are not talking about of any form of sport) of "long Covid".
As seen yesterday on TV, no written source available.


Another story; one of my work colleges has had serious COVID 19 over Christmas time. She is really young, has always performed sport e.g. She has had a sport accident 2 years ago, has had a surgery (the next one) regarding this one and was in a recovery clinic, when she got serious ill with COVID 19, interestingly without any problems with her lung. .But she was not able to move for around 10 days (she could not even sit in her bed for around ten days, this was already too much) and has had a serious "neuro covid" symptoms, full package.

She has now the typical "long covid" symptoms, fatigue (bad but not so bad as others), but still really bad: "neuro Covid" symptoms. She has now a more or less complete "short-term memory loss", next to fatigue and partial hearing loss, these were the worst one of her up to date symptoms.
She was recently working for around two weeks in her job again and is now for long time in the next recovery clinic, now for her long Covid symptoms.
In these two weeks. she was working....she has made many mistakes.
I fear not to see her ever again in her job, because she is just not any more able to do it.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:59 pm

casinterest wrote:
Another report from the CDC has been released today that indicate just one dose of Pfizer or Moderna is good for 80% coverage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-stu ... ctive.html

2 doses gives over 90%.

There is a good argument to be made that it might be better to give everyone one dose of these drugs and then go back with a booster later. Especially as the efficacy at one dose rivals J&J.

I for one have my second shot scheduled, but was wondering what everyone else thinks on this?


Neither manufacturer has supported doing this but in Canada we have spread the gap to 16 weeks between doses using this logic (I think the UK has done the same). Very high efficacy from the 1st dose and historically with past vaccines if you waited longer than the guideline to get your second dose it didn't eliminate protection from the initial shot.

If you have 80% protection after say 3 months you aren't going to have no protection a month later.
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ThePointblank
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:42 pm

Canada has suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to blood clot risks:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/astraz ... -1.5968128

Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) is expected to recommend today a pause in the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine on those under the age of 55 because of safety concerns, sources told CBC News.

The updated guidelines will be issued later today, according to sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The expected change comes following reports of rare blood clots in some immunized patients.

Canada is expected to receive 1.5 million doses of this product from the U.S. on Tuesday.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:04 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Another report from the CDC has been released today that indicate just one dose of Pfizer or Moderna is good for 80% coverage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-stu ... ctive.html

2 doses gives over 90%.

There is a good argument to be made that it might be better to give everyone one dose of these drugs and then go back with a booster later. Especially as the efficacy at one dose rivals J&J.

I for one have my second shot scheduled, but was wondering what everyone else thinks on this?


Neither manufacturer has supported doing this but in Canada we have spread the gap to 16 weeks between doses using this logic (I think the UK has done the same). Very high efficacy from the 1st dose and historically with past vaccines if you waited longer than the guideline to get your second dose it didn't eliminate protection from the initial shot.

If you have 80% protection after say 3 months you aren't going to have no protection a month later.



True enough.
I wonder if the US will change the rollout, but for now I think with the number of vaccines available, they may just continue as is.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
ThePointblank
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:52 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Another report from the CDC has been released today that indicate just one dose of Pfizer or Moderna is good for 80% coverage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-stu ... ctive.html

2 doses gives over 90%.

There is a good argument to be made that it might be better to give everyone one dose of these drugs and then go back with a booster later. Especially as the efficacy at one dose rivals J&J.

I for one have my second shot scheduled, but was wondering what everyone else thinks on this?


Neither manufacturer has supported doing this but in Canada we have spread the gap to 16 weeks between doses using this logic (I think the UK has done the same). Very high efficacy from the 1st dose and historically with past vaccines if you waited longer than the guideline to get your second dose it didn't eliminate protection from the initial shot.

If you have 80% protection after say 3 months you aren't going to have no protection a month later.

Another thing to note about the CDC study is that it covered ALL suspected infections, either symptomatic or asymptomatic, conducted by having the participants do a weekly nasal swab to test for any infections.

That's impressive and very good news; past studies only covered symptomatic infections.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:59 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Another report from the CDC has been released today that indicate just one dose of Pfizer or Moderna is good for 80% coverage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-stu ... ctive.html

2 doses gives over 90%.

There is a good argument to be made that it might be better to give everyone one dose of these drugs and then go back with a booster later. Especially as the efficacy at one dose rivals J&J.

I for one have my second shot scheduled, but was wondering what everyone else thinks on this?


Neither manufacturer has supported doing this but in Canada we have spread the gap to 16 weeks between doses using this logic (I think the UK has done the same). Very high efficacy from the 1st dose and historically with past vaccines if you waited longer than the guideline to get your second dose it didn't eliminate protection from the initial shot.

If you have 80% protection after say 3 months you aren't going to have no protection a month later.

Another thing to note about the CDC study is that it covered ALL suspected infections, either symptomatic or asymptomatic, conducted by having the participants do a weekly nasal swab to test for any infections.

That's impressive and very good news; past studies only covered symptomatic infections.

I just saw that amazing study. A 90% reduction in all transmission is wonderful!!! :hyper:

The main point of vaccines is to slow transmission. This effectively just validated Moderna. :spin:

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Derico
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:17 am

lightsaber wrote:
I

We will have to see on Chile and the UAE. There are some countries I question the data. In the case of the UAE, they need to open up for travel and the data trend is the opposite of if the data were to be manipulated, so the first cut says trust the data if bad.

So all indications are all the Western vaccines are doing really well. I'd like to see more data on Covaxin. I just haven't seen enough data to make an opinion on real world effectiveness (vs. test efficacy).


LIghtsaber


Why do you question data precisely from those countries, I am curious?
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:30 am

T4thH wrote:
According yesterday German TV, there seems now to be more and more cases of very young patients with "Long Covid" symptoms. It seems that 15% of patients/children, who have had COVID-19 (also without symptoms) later on have some "Long Covid" symptoms now. It is not fully clarified, if these were real "long Covid" symptoms or in part also issues regarding "lockdown" e.g.
There was also interviews with one case of a German women national basketball team (U 16) member, who is now not even able to perform the normal live regarding fatigue (and we are not talking about of any form of sport) of "long Covid".
As seen yesterday on TV, no written source available.


Another story; one of my work colleges has had serious COVID 19 over Christmas time. She is really young, has always performed sport e.g. She has had a sport accident 2 years ago, has had a surgery (the next one) regarding this one and was in a recovery clinic, when she got serious ill with COVID 19, interestingly without any problems with her lung. .But she was not able to move for around 10 days (she could not even sit in her bed for around ten days, this was already too much) and has had a serious "neuro covid" symptoms, full package.

She has now the typical "long covid" symptoms, fatigue (bad but not so bad as others), but still really bad: "neuro Covid" symptoms. She has now a more or less complete "short-term memory loss", next to fatigue and partial hearing loss, these were the worst one of her up to date symptoms.
She was recently working for around two weeks in her job again and is now for long time in the next recovery clinic, now for her long Covid symptoms.
In these two weeks. she was working....she has made many mistakes.
I fear not to see her ever again in her job, because she is just not any more able to do it.

Could this be related to some mutations that we haven't been paying attentions on?
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:26 am

In the last few months, a message that we have heard from public health authorities is that the vaccines may not prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This has unfortunately been interpreted by many members of the public as meaning that the vaccines *DO* not prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Today, the CDC, via MMWR, published data (1) demonstrating that the two mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/BNT and Moderna) result in a 90% reduction in all SARS-CoV-2 infections. This confirms an earlier Israeli analysis that yielded a 94% reduction in all SARS-CoV-2 infections in persons vaccinated with BNT-162B2.(2) Moreover, data out of Israel (3) demonstrate that those who do get infected in spite of being vaccinated have 2-16-fold lower viral loads in the upper respiratory tract.

You can't spread a virus you don't have. So yes, these two vaccines *do* substantially reduce transmission by at least 90%.

Vaccines work.

(1)https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm
(2)https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3811387
(3)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01316-7
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 4:12 am

DocLightning wrote:
In the last few months, a message that we have heard from public health authorities is that the vaccines may not prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This has unfortunately been interpreted by many members of the public as meaning that the vaccines *DO* not prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Today, the CDC, via MMWR, published data (1) demonstrating that the two mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/BNT and Moderna) result in a 90% reduction in all SARS-CoV-2 infections. This confirms an earlier Israeli analysis that yielded a 94% reduction in all SARS-CoV-2 infections in persons vaccinated with BNT-162B2.(2) Moreover, data out of Israel (3) demonstrate that those who do get infected in spite of being vaccinated have 2-16-fold lower viral loads in the upper respiratory tract.

You can't spread a virus you don't have. So yes, these two vaccines *do* substantially reduce transmission by at least 90%.

Vaccines work.

(1)https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm
(2)https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3811387
(3)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01316-7

Thing is, most non-mrna do not get their transmission prevention rate to anywhere near 90% and hence if this part of the equation is focused there could be not enough people willing to take other vaccines
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KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:45 am

ThePointblank wrote:
Canada has suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to blood clot risks:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/astraz ... -1.5968128

Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) is expected to recommend today a pause in the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine on those under the age of 55 because of safety concerns, sources told CBC News.

The updated guidelines will be issued later today, according to sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The expected change comes following reports of rare blood clots in some immunized patients.

Canada is expected to receive 1.5 million doses of this product from the U.S. on Tuesday.

This is lunacy. Unbelievable. They further state that despite 300k+ of the AZ vaccine being administered in Canada, there were *no* reports of blood clots!
Many more Canadians will now die as a result of this bureaucratic nonsense.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:33 am

Positivite rate below 1% in Israel for the first time since June 2020
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/cov ... une-663579
 
ThePointblank
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:42 am

KFTG wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Canada has suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to blood clot risks:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/astraz ... -1.5968128

Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) is expected to recommend today a pause in the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine on those under the age of 55 because of safety concerns, sources told CBC News.

The updated guidelines will be issued later today, according to sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The expected change comes following reports of rare blood clots in some immunized patients.

Canada is expected to receive 1.5 million doses of this product from the U.S. on Tuesday.

This is lunacy. Unbelievable. They further state that despite 300k+ of the AZ vaccine being administered in Canada, there were *no* reports of blood clots!
Many more Canadians will now die as a result of this bureaucratic nonsense.

Dr. Fisman on Twitter had this to say about the probable reason why Canada has paused using the AstraZeneca vaccine:

https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1376591481079787520

Why NACI's recommendation to suspend the AZ vaccine in people aged < 55 makes sense.

1. We don't know the risk of clotting. Initial estimates from Germany were 4 per million. Subsequent Norwegian estimates are 10 x that (42 per million).

2. As noted previously...

due to record linkage the Scandinavian countries are better than we are at identifying adverse events after immunization.

3. We are waiting for Canadian estimates. But once we recognize adverse events risks tend to climb, because things that were blown off as coincidental...

...are now attributed to vaccine.

4. There's a risk-benefit calculus here. The risk of death in Canada, in younger adults (< 55) is low to date, because we are protecting people in other ways.

The risk of dying, as a 40-49 year old woman (and the thrombotic complications have been reported overwhelmingly in women) in Ontario, in the pandemic to date, has been 20 per million. So: half the risk of this severe adverse event after vaccination.

And risk of death after this AEFI is high, possibly because of heparin treatment: in both Germany and Norway, half the reported cases were already dead by the time they put out their information.

As it happens, we are very lucky in Canada, because we have a bunch of vaccine coming from multiple manufacturers: Moderna and BNT/Pfizer are here in ever increasing quantities, we will start getting J and J and (inshallah) Novavax will be approved (and manufactured here)

Indeed, with > 3 million doses of vaccine arriving in Canada *this week*, we will be ok. Even if AZ is permanently dropped by Canada, my understanding is that that will delay our time to get a first dose into every Canadian who wants one by 12 weeks

(and no, I won't share my source. Too bad).

The AZ VIPIT issue is potentially a much bigger deal for COVAX where AZ will be the majority of vaccine stock.

Why younger women? And why not restrict the suspension of vaccination to women age 20-49 or 20-55, if this is where this AEFI has been reported.

First, sex-based restrictions are really challenging and likely to be perceived as inequitable.

Countries that have noted these AEFI may have been using AZ predominantly in healthcare workers, which has the potential to expose more women, as nursing remains a highly gendered career in many countries. But there are also other possible mechanisms for sex differences in risk

Am I comfortable with NACI's recommendation that older folks receive this vaccine, and would I recommend receipt to older relatives: hell^yeah.

Again, the reports of VIPIT are in younger people, and the risk calculus changes markedly with age, where people do become more likely to die of COVID than to be harmed by this complication.

Hope this is helpful. Bravo, NACI, for making a good call.
Look forward to more info.


From reading, there appears to be an elevated risk to younger women, and to a lesser extent, younger men to blood clotting with the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. The risk in the grand scheme of things is relatively low, but the risk is higher than expected, hence the suspension of use.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:51 am

https://hk.appledaily.com/local/2021033 ... 267HSX4M4/
Hong Kong: After government announced some cases of death after vaccination (Mainly SinoVac) and have government vaccination expert panel preliminarily concluded that most of those death have no direct relationship with the vaccine, it is revealed that the government didn't announce some cases and didn't send some cases of death after vaccination to expert panel for review as they internally deemed those death as attributable to other causes
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:06 am

Derico wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I

We will have to see on Chile and the UAE. There are some countries I question the data. In the case of the UAE, they need to open up for travel and the data trend is the opposite of if the data were to be manipulated, so the first cut says trust the data if bad.

So all indications are all the Western vaccines are doing really well. I'd like to see more data on Covaxin. I just haven't seen enough data to make an opinion on real world effectiveness (vs. test efficacy).


LIghtsaber


Why do you question data precisely from those countries, I am curious?

I am an analyst taught to always due sanity checks on data. So I do not question data from those two countries. The fact there date is showing poor trends vs. vaccine rates is showing honest data. So trust the data.

I always look at motivation. The UAE in particular wants to open up, hence the high vaccination rate. However, the cases per day is very high for a country with a population of 9.77 million vs. Israel's 9.05 million. So we can compare the two countries directly. Israel's infection rate is now 480 people today. Considering how many people refuse vaccines, that is impressively good showing that vaccines do indeed provide a herd immunity.

The UAE should have enough vaccine to really slow the virus out there, but instead has an infection rate of 2121 individuals per day. Now, Israel at a similar level of vaccination had just about 4.1k cases per day, so perhaps the vaccine is working, but I notice cases going up.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -emirates/
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... US~MEX~CHL
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/


What I question is the effectiveness of the vaccines they are being distributed in Chile and the UAE. The UK has a lower vaccination rate than Chile with more effect.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

One must ask why. I can be where each country is during the current wave (UK is coming off the last wave, Chile is going into the next wave).
But it also could be vaccine effectiveness...
I want to know. So far, the data from the UAE and Chile indicate the vaccine is less effective than AZ or Pfizer.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:12 am

ThePointblank wrote:
KFTG wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
Canada has suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to blood clot risks:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/astraz ... -1.5968128


This is lunacy. Unbelievable. They further state that despite 300k+ of the AZ vaccine being administered in Canada, there were *no* reports of blood clots!
Many more Canadians will now die as a result of this bureaucratic nonsense.

Dr. Fisman on Twitter had this to say about the probable reason why Canada has paused using the AstraZeneca vaccine:

https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1376591481079787520

Why NACI's recommendation to suspend the AZ vaccine in people aged < 55 makes sense.

1. We don't know the risk of clotting. Initial estimates from Germany were 4 per million. Subsequent Norwegian estimates are 10 x that (42 per million).

2. As noted previously...

due to record linkage the Scandinavian countries are better than we are at identifying adverse events after immunization.

3. We are waiting for Canadian estimates. But once we recognize adverse events risks tend to climb, because things that were blown off as coincidental...

...are now attributed to vaccine.

4. There's a risk-benefit calculus here. The risk of death in Canada, in younger adults (< 55) is low to date, because we are protecting people in other ways.

The risk of dying, as a 40-49 year old woman (and the thrombotic complications have been reported overwhelmingly in women) in Ontario, in the pandemic to date, has been 20 per million. So: half the risk of this severe adverse event after vaccination.

And risk of death after this AEFI is high, possibly because of heparin treatment: in both Germany and Norway, half the reported cases were already dead by the time they put out their information.

As it happens, we are very lucky in Canada, because we have a bunch of vaccine coming from multiple manufacturers: Moderna and BNT/Pfizer are here in ever increasing quantities, we will start getting J and J and (inshallah) Novavax will be approved (and manufactured here)

Indeed, with > 3 million doses of vaccine arriving in Canada *this week*, we will be ok. Even if AZ is permanently dropped by Canada, my understanding is that that will delay our time to get a first dose into every Canadian who wants one by 12 weeks

(and no, I won't share my source. Too bad).

The AZ VIPIT issue is potentially a much bigger deal for COVAX where AZ will be the majority of vaccine stock.

Why younger women? And why not restrict the suspension of vaccination to women age 20-49 or 20-55, if this is where this AEFI has been reported.

First, sex-based restrictions are really challenging and likely to be perceived as inequitable.

Countries that have noted these AEFI may have been using AZ predominantly in healthcare workers, which has the potential to expose more women, as nursing remains a highly gendered career in many countries. But there are also other possible mechanisms for sex differences in risk

Am I comfortable with NACI's recommendation that older folks receive this vaccine, and would I recommend receipt to older relatives: hell^yeah.

Again, the reports of VIPIT are in younger people, and the risk calculus changes markedly with age, where people do become more likely to die of COVID than to be harmed by this complication.

Hope this is helpful. Bravo, NACI, for making a good call.
Look forward to more info.


From reading, there appears to be an elevated risk to younger women, and to a lesser extent, younger men to blood clotting with the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. The risk in the grand scheme of things is relatively low, but the risk is higher than expected, hence the suspension of use.

How much exercise are people getting? My doctors told me to walk over 7k steps per day when I had Coronavirus. While they didn't mention clots per se, they noticed far worse outcomes in sedentary people. My doctor advised I walk at least a few thousand steps before the vaccine and after "just in case" (no specific reason given).

Canada has declining death rates (29/day) but increasing cases. At this point, while an investigation should be done, perhaps more than just gender or age should be used as a criteria. One would think sedentary life style is a high risk for clotting.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/canada/

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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:16 am

KFTG wrote:
Positivite rate below 1% in Israel for the first time since June 2020
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/cov ... une-663579

What makes that amazing is the huge size of the vaccine-avoiding population. Only 60.3% of the population accepted one dose so far (although, of course, we wait for a child's vaccine):

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

In the US, UK, and Israel, it is my opinion there isn't enough vaccine out there to protect the unvaccinated. In the UK, there are enough vaccinated to protect the vaccinated, but not the unvaccinated. In Israel, my model predicts the new variants (e.g., E484K variants) could break out in the unvaccinated population. Let us see.

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JJJ
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:05 pm

ThePointblank wrote:

From reading, there appears to be an elevated risk to younger women, and to a lesser extent, younger men to blood clotting with the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. The risk in the grand scheme of things is relatively low, but the risk is higher than expected, hence the suspension of use.


Which is consistent with what happened in Europe.

The vaccine was re-approved with changed text warning of blood clots as a possible side effect for certain groups of people.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/covid ... lood-clots

Information for healthcare professionals
Cases of thrombosis and thrombocytopenia, some presenting as mesenteric vein or cerebral vein/cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, have been reported in persons who had recently received COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca, mostly occurring within 14 days after vaccination. The majority of reports involved women under 55, although some of this may reflect greater exposure of such individuals due to targeting of particular populations for vaccine campaigns in different Member States.
The number of reported events exceeds those expected, and causality although not confirmed, cannot therefore be excluded. However, given the rarity of the events, and the difficulty of establishing baseline incidence since COVID-19 itself is resulting in hospitalisations with thromboembolic complications, the strength of any association is uncertain.
EMA considers that the benefit-risk balance of the medicine remains positive, and there is no association with thromboembolic disorders overall. However, steps will be taken to update the SmPC and package leaflet with information on cases of DIC and CVST that have occurred.
Healthcare professionals are urged to be alert for possible cases of thromboembolism, DIC or CVST occurring in vaccinated individuals.
Recipients should be warned to seek immediate medical attention for symptoms of thromboembolism, and especially signs of thrombocytopenia and cerebral blood clots such as easy bruising or bleeding, and persistent or severe headache, particularly beyond 3 days after vaccination.
A direct healthcare professional communication (DHPC) will be sent to healthcare professionals prescribing, dispensing or administering the medicine. The DHPC will also be published on a dedicated page on the EMA website.

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