Is the UK vaccination programme heading for problems?
The UK adopted a strategy of increasing the interval between first and second doses to 12 weeks.
I log data for England (rather than UK). On Jan 11 England had administered
1.959 million first doses
0.374 million second doses
12 weeks later (Apr 5) England had administered 4.344 million second doses (way ahead of the 1.959 million scheduled). In the last 2 weeks the rolling 7 day average relationship between first and second doses has altered from about 6:1 to about 2:3. Is the UK guarding against an inability to give a second dose within the allotted 12 weeks?
I guess the UK is running out of vaccine. I wonder when more stocks of vaccine will become available in the UK. It is starting to look like the first dose programme is reducing to a trickle. First doses administered in England
16 Mar-22 Mar = 2.7 million
23 Mar-29 Mar = 1.8 million
30 Mar-05 Apr = 0.65 million
Can anyone in the know reassure me that the UK vaccination programme is not about to slow down from a sprint to a crawl?
We all know the EU cut off the UK from vaccines.
Please provide a link which proves the EU has actually denied an export to the UK (date, amount, etc).
The disputed, paid for quantity is somewhere between 5 and 10 million doses. Halix has already shipped a batch of unknown size to Britain, MailOnline understands, and is reported to be in possession of five to 10million more doses that the EU and UK are now wrangling over. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... cines.html
EU has made it quite clear no exports to EU. I do not know how much Pfizer has been held up, but one must believe the EU when they say exports are being halted:https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... uxbndlbing
This is over the Halix jabs,:https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/u ... NewsSearch
Threat started about two weeks ago:https://news.yahoo.com/news/eu-warns-bl ... 09765.html
Not to mention EU holding 3.1m doses for Australia:https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.usnews.c ... text%3damp
The is the UK funded the Halix site. This sets a bad precident. There is no doubt AZ muffed production. The question is has the EU used sovereign authority to over-ride contract law? Anyone who has read books by Bernstein on economics doesn't like where that goes...
We've been discussing in this thread a bit. I bet there are better links above.
Now the above links note that the UK makes 2 million doses a week of AZ. Hopefully they can divert resources to increase that production. (We all want more vaccines).
Hopefully NovaVax production is going well.
After further reflection, I agree with other posters in this thread that Valneva by June seems too agressive.
It will be interesting when hesitancy, not supply matters.https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-COR ... ypmrelyvr/
The percentage of the population willing to take a vaccine will eventually play a role. (chart in above link).
Supply came from penalties in the UK contracts:
Hancock referred to the clauses in the UK’s vaccine supply contracts requiring vaccine producers to supply it preferentially: if there are production shortages, then the UK order must be fulfilled by diverting supplies from other customers. A failure to do so attracts fierce penalties.
As a result, the UK has had its orders fully met, whereas the EU suffered early shortfalls from Pfizer, and is now receiving less than a quarter of what it contracted for from AstraZeneca, which has experienced production problems.
https://theconversation.com/amp/did-the ... nes-157926
We already discussed that the EU contract had similar clauses, but without penalties.As a matter of law, both the EU and the UK have a case. Both contracts contain a “best reasonable efforts” clause, which is intended to cover the situation where force majeure – a legal term for an event outside one’s control – makes full delivery impossible or unreasonably difficult.
But signing a preferential contract with someone else is not force majeure: it is just selling the same stuff twice.
Unfortunately, vaccines have continually missed production promises. e.g., I see the promises for 2Q2021 and I ask why believe them this time? In my opinion, we will be short again. This is because the grand promises exceed prior production ramp rates:https://www.irishtimes.com/business/hea ... 6?mode=amp
I believe the best prediction of future performance is past performance. I see the parabolic curves and expect them to continue to accelerate unless there is a major change:https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union
Now the UK curve turned down within the timeframe if the EU promising to withhold exports. Hence why in above posts the UK, in my opinion, had no choice but to move the NovaVax supply chain to fully within the UK as per my prior posts.
Moderna is now going out in the UK (but only 500k doses expected in April per prior posts);https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKBN2BU0KG
UK claims 12 million doses coming in April. My math says that means at least a few million NovaVax doses for the UK.https://www.republicworld.com/world-new ... ister.html
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