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AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:26 pm

marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56663969?at_campaign=64&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom4=7FD2E072-97FD-11EB-9B0A-159C4744363C&at_medium=custom7&at_custom2=twitter

An interesting graphic on AZ, as someone who believes in looking at the numbers, that does explain why AZ is not for the under 30.
Bummer. But with new information, one must change opinions.


Change opinions? According to some members over here it was the "incompetence of the EU" and "for political use in Germany and France to distract from internal issues". :scratchchin:


We all have our bias and usually give greater credit to news sources that confirm what we believe in.
I actually am really happy that most here are able to change their opinions when new information gets available...

Best regards and stay safe
Jonas
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
But with new information, one must change opinions. This is quite the handicap in the global vaccine effort.


Thanks Lightsaber for posting this really interesting graphic. Me being more optimistic than you, I believe AZ vaccine will still play a major role in vaccinating the world. While there are many young people on our planet, the over 55 make around 1.5 billion that souhld be vaccinated...

On the more pesstimistic side: on yesterday's EMA press conference one of the specialist, as I understood him, said that the J&J vaccine was technically similar to the AZ vaccine, and during its phase 3 trial a tendency for the same problem as with AZ had been noticed and data will be closely monitored? Can somebody confirm this? Or did I misunderstand (I hope I did)?

lightsaber wrote:
So the question becomes, will Novavax be available enough for the UK to protect the younger? The BBC link notes infections in children. If as per above on AZ exports are effected, will there be enough Pfizer for the children in the UK?


I think by summer, Pfizer should be producing in excess of 30 Mio jabs/week (US and EU) and if Moderna works for kids too, that sold be another +15 Mio jabs/week. That should be enough to vaccinate many western kids. Also, Novavax should help too (if not yet allowed for children, it still can free the mNRA vaccine for the younger)...
And then there is Valneva (probably a little later). I wish I found the link again where it was said that Valneva uses a technic often used in children's vaccine...

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:47 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56663969?at_campaign=64&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom4=7FD2E072-97FD-11EB-9B0A-159C4744363C&at_medium=custom7&at_custom2=twitter

An interesting graphic on AZ, as someone who believes in looking at the numbers, that does explain why AZ is not for the under 30.
Bummer. But with new information, one must change opinions.


Change opinions? According to some members over here it was the "incompetence of the EU" and "for political use in Germany and France to distract from internal issues". :scratchchin:


We all have our bias and usually give greater credit to news sources that confirm what we believe in.
I actually am really happy that most here are able to change their opinions when new information gets available...

Best regards and stay safe
Jonas

There are also some who leap to find faults. I aim to reduce my bias. Sometimes I find facts to reinforce my beliefs, in this case a real bummer.


AirbusCheerlead wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
But with new information, one must change opinions. This is quite the handicap in the global vaccine effort.


Thanks Lightsaber for posting this really interesting graphic. Me being more optimistic than you, I believe AZ vaccine will still play a major role in vaccinating the world. While there are many young people on our planet, the over 55 make around 1.5 billion that souhld be vaccinated...

On the more pesstimistic side: on yesterday's EMA press conference one of the specialist, as I understood him, said that the J&J vaccine was technically similar to the AZ vaccine, and during its phase 3 trial a tendency for the same problem as with AZ had been noticed and data will be closely monitored? Can somebody confirm this? Or did I misunderstand (I hope I did)?

lightsaber wrote:
So the question becomes, will Novavax be available enough for the UK to protect the younger? The BBC link notes infections in children. If as per above on AZ exports are effected, will there be enough Pfizer for the children in the UK?


I think by summer, Pfizer should be producing in excess of 30 Mio jabs/week (US and EU) and if Moderna works for kids too, that sold be another +15 Mio jabs/week. That should be enough to vaccinate many western kids. Also, Novavax should help too (if not yet allowed for children, it still can free the mNRA vaccine for the younger)...
And then there is Valneva (probably a little later). I wish I found the link again where it was said that Valneva uses a technic often used in children's vaccine...

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas


We are debating the rich nations while the rest of the world burns. J&J and AZ are major parts of the effort to stop this annoying virus (I say annoying as coronavirus gave me tinnitus and the vaccine made my tennitus far worse; supposedly that is a sign nerves are healing, per other forums of the all knowing internet... in other words, take this "insight" with a grain of salt).

One of my older coworkers said it succinctly this morning, if it isn't safe for my kids, I won't have it. I believe many will now avoid AZ even as that graphic shows, for most the benefits are huge. This will slow the effort to get to herd immunity.

Even for the under 30, 2:1 advantage during an outbreak, but getting all the grey hairs first :old: protects the younger more than them having the vaccine.

But as my kids are in school, I am concerned about them. Every parent knows schools are germ factories and kids just cannot fully follow the rules. I am personally going insane from the poor coordination amoung schools that results in me having to take half days off work to chauffeur my kids between school stuff every Thursday.

So I want them in full time school, but I want them safe... Sigh...

The issue with Pfizer and Moderna is everyone wants those. I won't be a hypocrite, I ensured my first vaccine was mRNA, so I do not blame anyone, but 30 million a week is 4 years for everyone to hop on that vaccine train.

So this is part of the reason I am excited for NovaVax, Valneva, and later CureVac. Several will find their way to kids.

We need to be honest and accurate. What worries me is how much the anti-vaxers will multiply this. Ugh...


If J&J shares the fault, that really destroys the US effort to vaccinate kids before school starts in late August. :cry2: This very much sets back my herd immunity timeline estimate.

Do people not realize my *need* to party?!? :hissyfit:
I always caviated six weeks after vaccines were readily available. I am in personal mourning as my estimated timeline to an adulting free weekend was just set back at least two months. :bomb:

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:58 pm

Once again I must change my opinion on new information. This time for the better. Curevac expects EU approval in June. This begs the question, how ready is production? I'm aware if their EU factory in IIRC Germany, do they have production in work elsewhere?

This is several months earlier than I thought (feared?). Does anyone have a good link on their supply chain?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/co ... NewsSearch

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:28 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... nd=premium

A longer article on how AZ found itself in trouble. Mostly covering information that has been discussed here on a-net. To summarize, AZ vaccine is a very good vaccine, but trials, manufacturing, and contracts combined with unforced errors have led to the sort of publicity that could have been avoided. It is unfortunate that potential side effects for younger people are present. That it is not as effective against some variants can likely be fixed.
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Olddog
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:02 pm

Not a lot in english but here one:
https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/07/eu- ... ply-issues

Fareva should launch the production of CureVac, pending marketing authorisation, in its factories in Pau and Val-de-Reuil (Eure, western France) by early June.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
This is several months earlier than I thought (feared?). Does anyone have a good link on their supply chain?


Sorry some links are in German...

From what I have found on the Internet, it seems EU (or Germany) is manly ramping up the "home grown" vaccine. First naturally the proven one (Pfizer/BioNTech), secondly CureVac...

For CureVac the goal in November 20 was 300 Mio jabs in 2021 and 600 Mio in 2022.
https://www.curevac.com/en/2020/11/17/c ... te-cvncov/
They will produce in their own factories and have since signed deals with Bayer and Novartis (Novartis will also be involved with BioNTech).

While 300 Mio in 2021 doesn't seem that much, it still adds to Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna and might yield to up to 4.5 mRNA jabs in 2021.

I have the feeling there isn't much factory capacity left in Europe for producing more covid vaccine. From dw: IDT Biologika in Dessau will produce J&J vaccine during 12 weeks. To make the J&J production possible (EU surge for 360 Mio jabs in Q2) they had to delay the production of a dengue vaccine by the same time span (I assume somebody needs those dengue vaccine too). BTW IDT also is building a new AZ production line that should start producing at the end of 22 (If not a typo from the journalist, it shows just how much time is needed to built a new factory)...

From the same dw article:
  • There is an intereting map of all the German factories involved in covid vaccine production
  • talk about the new BioNTech factory in Marburg for 750 Mio jabs/year (old news)
  • several new plants for "fill and finish" of Pfizer/BioNTech: Baxter in Halle, Allergopharma in Reinbek and und Siegfried in Hameln.
  • Evonik will produce the famous "lipids" in 2 factories from beginning of 2nd half year.
  • the Russian company R-Pharm increases capacity in Illertissen to produce AZ under license and if it gets certified by EMA, Sputnik V could also be produced there.
  • link in German https://m.dw.com/de/deutschland-will-im ... a-57079473

A second article from dw about expansion of Pfizer/BioNTech:
  • Dermapharm manifactures the vaccine in Brehna bei Leipzig since October, and will add a second factory in Reinbek bei Hamburg and should start delivering in May.
  • Not sure if Baxter will just make the "fill and finish" in Halle (see above) or also produce the vaccine per this link.
  • Novartis and Sanofi will help with "fill and finish" (I think)
  • link in German https://amp.dw.com/de/biontech-startet- ... a-56520330

You already posted a link about new help coming online in France. This link is about the same but contains some further infos (also about money invested by the French government)
https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Arti ... ufacturing

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:15 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Once again I must change my opinion on new information. This time for the better. Curevac expects EU approval in June. This begs the question, how ready is production? I'm aware if their EU factory in IIRC Germany, do they have production in work elsewhere?

This is several months earlier than I thought (feared?). Does anyone have a good link on their supply chain?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/co ... NewsSearch

Lightsaber


Can we agree that you are having your own read about it? :smile:

It looks like they have partnered with some of the heawyweights in the industry. When all of them are able to deliver, is another question and I admit that I did not read all of the articles in detail, so I can't confirm when they are able to ramp up production.

Celonic and CureVac Announce Agreement to Manufacture over 100 Million Doses of CureVac’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, CVnCoV

CureVac and WACKER Sign Manufacturing Contract for CureVac’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, CVnCoV

Bayer to manufacture mRNA vaccine in Germany

GSK inks deal to produce CureVac's COVID-19 vaccine—and develop a next-gen version, too

CureVac, Novartis team up in latest pandemic vaccine manufacturing collaboration
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:54 pm

SQ22 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Once again I must change my opinion on new information. This time for the better. Curevac expects EU approval in June. This begs the question, how ready is production? I'm aware if their EU factory in IIRC Germany, do they have production in work elsewhere?

This is several months earlier than I thought (feared?). Does anyone have a good link on their supply chain?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/co ... NewsSearch

Lightsaber


Can we agree that you are having your own read about it? :smile:

It looks like they have partnered with some of the heawyweights in the industry. When all of them are able to deliver, is another question and I admit that I did not read all of the articles in detail, so I can't confirm when they are able to ramp up production.

Celonic and CureVac Announce Agreement to Manufacture over 100 Million Doses of CureVac’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, CVnCoV

CureVac and WACKER Sign Manufacturing Contract for CureVac’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, CVnCoV

Bayer to manufacture mRNA vaccine in Germany

GSK inks deal to produce CureVac's COVID-19 vaccine—and develop a next-gen version, too

CureVac, Novartis team up in latest pandemic vaccine manufacturing collaboration

OMG, that is a reading assignment!!!

Hey, I fully admitted to being pessimistic on CureVac. So my question was the production ramp. So now to read details. For in my opinion, supply chain management has been an issue. Now mostly that is because these are industries used to a year+ to ramp production. Aerospace, on the military side at least, must plan for rediculously fast ramps which means making sure you aren't short a glue, a washer, or... something. So I am trained to look into this (my 2nd least favorite work after wiring, there are times to stay employed...).

So now to look into that production. I believe buyers are buying more "at risk" in the scramble to get any new supply possible.

Lightsaber
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AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:10 pm

We already talked a little about the problems of the supply chain for the covid vaccine production.

A few days ago I stumbled on this old press release (end of February) from Moderna about additional capital investments to increase production.
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-re ... ase-global

Beside their hope of producing 700 Mio to 1 billion doses in 2021 and having capacity for 1.4 billion in 2022, they emphasise several times those production numbers are based on 100 μg of mRNA per jab. But if for a booster for example only 50 μg were necessary, production would increase sharply.

From their link between the quantity of mRNA and vaccine output, I conclude that mRNA production is the bottleneck of the supply chain (is that a wrong conclusion?) And this got we wondering about the companies wanting to protect their knowhow.

What makes that not every pharma company is able to produce mRNA vaccines. What is the technology that companies want to protect: creating the right mRNA sequence? producing the mRNA in big quantities? injecting the mRNA in to "lipid transport vessel?, something else?

I assume Moderna, Pfizer and BioNTech (and CureVac) produce the mRNA for their vaccines. But do other pharma companies help?

Do company like Lonza, specialised in drug production and not development, also produce the mRNA for Moderna with a transfer of technology from Moderna. Or did, after signing a deal in May 2020, both work together to develop the production lines?

In Europe BioNTech signed deals with big pharma companies Sanofi and Novartis. But it seems they only will assist with "fill & finish". Is that because BioNTech and Pfizer want to protect their technology?

On the other hand CureVac signed a deal with the same Novartis and from Novartis' press release I understand they will also produce the mRNA
https://www.novartis.com/news/media-rel ... -candidate

All this got me also wondering who builts all the sophisticated machinery for the factories. Are they designed by the pharma companies themselves or are there some major specialist that I should know about?

I hope someone in the know can share some light or provide for some interesting links/lecture.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:08 pm

There are stories out today about adverse reactions to the J&J shot. Sites are shut down in Denver and Raleigh. Do we have a bad batch?


https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/ ... on-johnson
"Following the administration of the J&J vaccine and during onsite observation, we saw a limited number of adverse reactions to the vaccine," a statement from Centra Health, which runs the site, to Fox News reads. "We followed our protocols and in an abundance of caution, made the decision – in partnership with the state – to pause operations for the remainder of the day."



https://www.wral.com/wake-county-pauses ... /19616960/

Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccinations were paused at PNC Arena in Raleigh on Thursday after "several people" had adverse reactions, according to spokeswoman Stacy Beard.


The stories lack full details for now, and I am not sure if there are underlying issues.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:36 pm

casinterest wrote:
There are stories out today about adverse reactions to the J&J shot. Sites are shut down in Denver and Raleigh. Do we have a bad batch?


https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/ ... on-johnson
"Following the administration of the J&J vaccine and during onsite observation, we saw a limited number of adverse reactions to the vaccine," a statement from Centra Health, which runs the site, to Fox News reads. "We followed our protocols and in an abundance of caution, made the decision – in partnership with the state – to pause operations for the remainder of the day."



https://www.wral.com/wake-county-pauses ... /19616960/

Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccinations were paused at PNC Arena in Raleigh on Thursday after "several people" had adverse reactions, according to spokeswoman Stacy Beard.


The stories lack full details for now, and I am not sure if there are underlying issues.



Hold the horses: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 126994002/

It sounds like it was dizziness and nausea, which according to the doctor interviewed above are to be expected.

The mass media industry needs to stop using the vaccine effort as a click generator.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:41 pm

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
casinterest wrote:
There are stories out today about adverse reactions to the J&J shot. Sites are shut down in Denver and Raleigh. Do we have a bad batch?


https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/ ... on-johnson
"Following the administration of the J&J vaccine and during onsite observation, we saw a limited number of adverse reactions to the vaccine," a statement from Centra Health, which runs the site, to Fox News reads. "We followed our protocols and in an abundance of caution, made the decision – in partnership with the state – to pause operations for the remainder of the day."



https://www.wral.com/wake-county-pauses ... /19616960/

Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccinations were paused at PNC Arena in Raleigh on Thursday after "several people" had adverse reactions, according to spokeswoman Stacy Beard.


The stories lack full details for now, and I am not sure if there are underlying issues.



Hold the horses: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 126994002/

It sounds like it was dizziness and nausea, which according to the doctor interviewed above are to be expected.

The mass media industry needs to stop using the vaccine effort as a click generator.


it isn't a click generator. The sites are being shut down. So either the staff are not trained properly or there is an issue beyond what they expect.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:47 pm

casinterest wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:
casinterest wrote:
There are stories out today about adverse reactions to the J&J shot. Sites are shut down in Denver and Raleigh. Do we have a bad batch?


https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/ ... on-johnson

https://www.wral.com/wake-county-pauses ... /19616960/

The stories lack full details for now, and I am not sure if there are underlying issues.



Hold the horses: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 126994002/

It sounds like it was dizziness and nausea, which according to the doctor interviewed above are to be expected.

The mass media industry needs to stop using the vaccine effort as a click generator.


it isn't a click generator. The sites are being shut down. So either the staff are not trained properly or there is an issue beyond what they expect.

Between media being a panic mode generator, it creates anxiety. I stopped watching and purely read news now.

https://blissquest.net/watching-the-new ... 20informed.

I don't know enough, but we entered the social media where there must be quick condemnation and absolute truths.

I miss going out with friends across the isle to have a good debate.

Now it is pure for vaccine or against. I'll change my mind based on data (I fully admit to believing vaccines save lives, I had my first dose).

My signature says it all. I stopped watching all TV as I wanted entertainment, not more and more concern.

I will withhold judgement. It is possible a poorly mixed batch was released that causes more side effects.

Dissiness and nausea... That is supposed to be such a tiny fraction where if two people have it, the doctor on duty should call a stop.



There were: [i]Colorado vaccination site shuts down after 11 'adverse reactions' to Johnson & Johnson jabs
...
Two patients were transported to a hospital for observation while EMTs treated the other nine people with juice and water, the state health department said.
per your link. That is not normal.

I am extreamly pro-vaccine, but at a minimum, that batch must be impounded. It must be rested tonight. If a bad batch was released, stop any possible related batches as this is a quality escape.

Re-read my pro-AZ posts above until data came out that convinced me it was time to change my mind.

11 reactions is far too many. It could be 11 people hit the same restaurant and all ordered the fish:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DkGR65CXaNA

This is a time to find out what the issue is.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:11 am

French health authority approval 2nd dose mRNA instead of AZ:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BV2W7

I'd like to know the research. I posted way upthread the UK was researching various combinations, but I thought the study went until June.

I am in favor of AZ then mRNA to stretch out the mRNA. But what is the science? Is there a safety study?

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:


Hold the horses: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 126994002/

It sounds like it was dizziness and nausea, which according to the doctor interviewed above are to be expected.

The mass media industry needs to stop using the vaccine effort as a click generator.


it isn't a click generator. The sites are being shut down. So either the staff are not trained properly or there is an issue beyond what they expect.

Between media being a panic mode generator, it creates anxiety. I stopped watching and purely read news now.

https://blissquest.net/watching-the-new ... 20informed.

I don't know enough, but we entered the social media where there must be quick condemnation and absolute truths.

I miss going out with friends across the isle to have a good debate.

Now it is pure for vaccine or against. I'll change my mind based on data (I fully admit to believing vaccines save lives, I had my first dose).

My signature says it all. I stopped watching all TV as I wanted entertainment, not more and more concern.

I will withhold judgement. It is possible a poorly mixed batch was released that causes more side effects.

Dissiness and nausea... That is supposed to be such a tiny fraction where if two people have it, the doctor on duty should call a stop.



There were: [i]Colorado vaccination site shuts down after 11 'adverse reactions' to Johnson & Johnson jabs
...
Two patients were transported to a hospital for observation while EMTs treated the other nine people with juice and water, the state health department said.
per your link. That is not normal.

I am extreamly pro-vaccine, but at a minimum, that batch must be impounded. It must be rested tonight. If a bad batch was released, stop any possible related batches as this is a quality escape.

Re-read my pro-AZ posts above until data came out that convinced me it was time to change my mind.

11 reactions is far too many. It could be 11 people hit the same restaurant and all ordered the fish:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DkGR65CXaNA

This is a time to find out what the issue is.

Lightsaber


Here is more follow up from Raleigh.
https://www.wral.com/we-believe-the-j-j ... /19618348/
After some people experienced nausea, dizziness and fainting at the Wake County clinic at PNC Arena, UNC Health released a statement echoing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidance that the J&J vaccine has no legitimate safety concerns.

More than 2,300 Johnson & Johnson vaccines were administered at PNC Arena on Thursday, meaning 0.78% of vaccine recipients had a reaction. Four people were taken to the hospital and 14 were treated on site at the arena. On Friday, Wake County is pausing on administering the J&J vaccine only giving the two-dose Pfizer vaccine.



So it seems the reactions are consistent with known side effects. I just wonder if Pollen season is the real culprit. So many with heightened breathing issues and allergies are going to outdoor sites to get vaccinated, and I wonder if we see an unfortunate confluence of issues in some folks. Raleigh is seeing some of the highest pollen counts ever this week for those with tree allergies.

https://xapps.ncdenr.org/aq/ambient/Pollen.jsp
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:41 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:

it isn't a click generator. The sites are being shut down. So either the staff are not trained properly or there is an issue beyond what they expect.

Between media being a panic mode generator, it creates anxiety. I stopped watching and purely read news now.

https://blissquest.net/watching-the-new ... 20informed.

I don't know enough, but we entered the social media where there must be quick condemnation and absolute truths.

I miss going out with friends across the isle to have a good debate.

Now it is pure for vaccine or against. I'll change my mind based on data (I fully admit to believing vaccines save lives, I had my first dose).

My signature says it all. I stopped watching all TV as I wanted entertainment, not more and more concern.

I will withhold judgement. It is possible a poorly mixed batch was released that causes more side effects.

Dissiness and nausea... That is supposed to be such a tiny fraction where if two people have it, the doctor on duty should call a stop.



There were: [i]Colorado vaccination site shuts down after 11 'adverse reactions' to Johnson & Johnson jabs
...
Two patients were transported to a hospital for observation while EMTs treated the other nine people with juice and water, the state health department said.
per your link. That is not normal.

I am extreamly pro-vaccine, but at a minimum, that batch must be impounded. It must be rested tonight. If a bad batch was released, stop any possible related batches as this is a quality escape.

Re-read my pro-AZ posts above until data came out that convinced me it was time to change my mind.

11 reactions is far too many. It could be 11 people hit the same restaurant and all ordered the fish:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DkGR65CXaNA

This is a time to find out what the issue is.

Lightsaber


Here is more follow up from Raleigh.
https://www.wral.com/we-believe-the-j-j ... /19618348/
After some people experienced nausea, dizziness and fainting at the Wake County clinic at PNC Arena, UNC Health released a statement echoing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidance that the J&J vaccine has no legitimate safety concerns.

More than 2,300 Johnson & Johnson vaccines were administered at PNC Arena on Thursday, meaning 0.78% of vaccine recipients had a reaction. Four people were taken to the hospital and 14 were treated on site at the arena. On Friday, Wake County is pausing on administering the J&J vaccine only giving the two-dose Pfizer vaccine.



So it seems the reactions are consistent with known side effects. I just wonder if Pollen season is the real culprit. So many with heightened breathing issues and allergies are going to outdoor sites to get vaccinated, and I wonder if we see an unfortunate confluence of issues in some folks. Raleigh is seeing some of the highest pollen counts ever this week for those with tree allergies.

https://xapps.ncdenr.org/aq/ambient/Pollen.jsp

I can accept super high pollen plus a vaccine is a bad day. But the 2nd person sent to the hospital meant stopping the vaccine was the right call.

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StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:44 pm

lightsaber wrote:
French health authority approval 2nd dose mRNA instead of AZ:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BV2W7

I'd like to know the research. I posted way upthread the UK was researching various combinations, but I thought the study went until June.

I am in favor of AZ then mRNA to stretch out the mRNA. But what is the science? Is there a safety study?

Lightsaber


I have heard (also I think Doc has said this) that with the booster dose of AZ the adenovirus vector is the same virus and the immune system attacks it thus reducing the effectiveness of the booster shot.

This is probably why AZ has more effective trials with an initial half dose and then a full dose booster. The mRNA booster would also produce the spike protein but the immune system wouldn't attack the mRNA and thus might have a much more effective immune response in theory.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:14 pm

Pfizer is asking the FDA for approval to give it's vaccine to those 12-15 years old.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/09/health/u ... index.html
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:54 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
This is probably why AZ has more effective trials with an initial half dose and then a full dose booster. The mRNA booster would also produce the spike protein but the immune system wouldn't attack the mRNA and thus might have a much more effective immune response in theory.


Yeah, although I think AZ is going to be over pretty soon. If it wasn't safe enough to give in Europe, then I'm sure that less developed nations will argue that just because they're poor doesn't mean that they should be giving their young people strokes. Maybe a two-dose J&J will have a better safety profile.

As for the mRNA vaccines, I suspect that in the coming months and years, we will see improvements in both production and formulation that will make this more practical to deliver around the world. After all, there was a time when sequencing a human genome took ten years and billions of dollars. Now it costs $10-30 (although they charge way more) and takes a day.

As is often the case, a major crisis sparks new technologies.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:38 pm

I accept that there may be an increased risk of blood clots with AZ vaccine. If so, yes, governments should restrict its use and offer other vaccines.

I accept that there is an increased risk of blood clots for women taking the contraceptive pill. Ergo governments should restrict its use and offer other methods of contraception.

Research published in The Lancet found that oral contraceptives tripled the risk of blood clots...


https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/ri ... ts/106257/

We must avoid things that increase the risk of thrombosis, musn't we?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:17 pm

Slovakia is not happy with the Russian Sputnik V vaccine, saying that the doses it received are different than the one that was reviewed, and suggesting that there are serious quality control issues:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/worl ... utnik.html

Russia’s vaccine diplomacy suffered a setback on Thursday when Slovakia, one of the few countries in Europe to order its Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine, said that the doses it purchased differed from a version reviewed favorably by a respected British medical journal.

A statement by Slovakia’s drug regulator questioning the Russian vaccine suggested potentially serious quality-control problems in the manufacture of Sputnik V and threatened recent progress made by Russia in winning acceptance for its product.

That progress has rested largely on a peer-reviewed article published in The Lancet in February that gave the Russian vaccine a thumbs-up. It said that Sputnik V had an 91.6 percent efficacy rate against Covid-19, an endorsement that Moscow has used to raise confidence in the vaccine and strengthen the Kremlin’s hand in vaccine diplomacy.

Slovakia’s regulator, the State Institute for Drug Control, however, said in a statement that vaccine batches imported into the East European country did “not have the same characteristics and properties” as the version of Sputnik V reviewed by The Lancet.


https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/04 ... k-vaccine/

Russia has asked Slovakia to return 200,000 doses of the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine after Slovak testing indicated serious quality control issues.

The Slovak regulatory agency, the State Institute for Drug Control, reported that the batches it received did not “have the same characteristics and properties” as the Sputnik vaccine that was peer-reviewed in the Lancet and found to be 91.6 percent effective.

In light of Slovakia’s doubts about the quality of the vaccine doses, Russia went on the attack on Twitter. Russia’s official “Sputnik V” Twitter account claimed in a thread that the Slovak regulator has “launched a disinformation campaign against #SputnikV and plans additional provocations.” The account labeled the agency’s testing results as “fake news.”
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:23 am

Question:
As it's known that, some vaccines like AstraZeneca and other non-mRNA vaccines, have lower effectiveness in suppressing the virus transmission, while still effective at preventing hospitalization and mild and severe symptom.

In other words, the percentage of asymptomatic carrier of the virus would increase.

Wouldn't it result in the virus spreading around more easily as it's less likely for asymptomatic carriers to be tested and quarantined, thus more chance for them to spread the virus?
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:34 am

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/heal ... ion=Health

A discussion of the possible biology behind AZ and dangerous clotting.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:50 am

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Chile only doing one dose of SinoVac, interesting video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGXHpkxtZvo

My opinion is SinoVac definitely needs two doses to really slow transmission.

c933103 wrote:
Question:
As it's known that, some vaccines like AstraZeneca and other non-mRNA vaccines, have lower effectiveness in suppressing the virus transmission, while still effective at preventing hospitalization and mild and severe symptom.

In other words, the percentage of asymptomatic carrier of the virus would increase.

Wouldn't it result in the virus spreading around more easily as it's less likely for asymptomatic carriers to be tested and quarantined, thus more chance for them to spread the virus?


Carriers should still have lower viral loads and a shorter time frame they transmit. So I hypothesize the transmission should be reduced.
AZ cuts transmission by 2/3rds after just one dose:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/astrazene ... ose-study/

J&J reduces asymptomatic transmission 74%:
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19 ... s-fda-says

My opinion is that the Western vaccines all reduce asymptomatic transmission.
AZ in the UK looks to be amazing, but how much is lockdown. e.g., France vs. the EU in general is very close in vaccination (and I assume which vaccines), but the behavior (lack of lockdowns, schooling, perhaps weather) of a few weeks ago spiked cases.

However, both the UK and Chile did the one dose strategy. Chile's has not been as successful. I've noticed the reduction in transmissions is close enough to the rated efficacy. So a 2 dose SinoVac has just over 50% efficacy , which means the one dose is some discount. Considering the UAE is trying 3 dose with the different Sinopharm to establish enough immunity, I am of the opinion Chile hasn't been able to fully tame the virus as the transmission is still too high (probably asymptomatic, I'm going to assume most people will try not to get other people sick).

https://fintechzoom.com/fintech_news_si ... 20data.%29

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... +Union~CHL

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union

https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/national ... uxbndlbing

So I think asymptomatic transmission will decrease as the likelihood should decrease, I hypothesize about the efficacy rate less, and the duration should be reduced. However, if behavior is more towards transmission (less lockdown), then it will increase transmission. This is why it takes a very high fraction of society vaccinated to matter.

Herd immunity will not mean no transmission. It will not mean no deaths either. It just means the risk is low enough to allow "normal" life to resume. Each person (including children) will need to be vaccinated to protect themselves. It will be the side benefit that they are less likely to transmit the disease.

We've discussed many times in this thread how viral load and that will reduce transmission.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/co ... udy-664181

So all evidence is the opposite of yoru theory. Vaccines will reduce transmission for a given behavior. Since people will misbehave, it is necessary to get vaccine to all.

The mRNA vaccines are just 90%+ efficacy. That drop an Ro of 4 down to 0.4 or much less (disease burns out quickly, see Israel or UK which is also doing lockdown). The low efficacy SinoVac will only drop that down to a theoretical Ro of 2. Errr... that means to get Ro < 1, with SinoVac, everyone must be vaccinated or have natural immunity. :white: While Israel, with 90% efficacy slowed the virus to a non-event iwith 60% vaccinated (plus natural immunity) and the UK has done really well with 45% vaccinated (plus high natural immunity and lockdown), the lower efficacy will have issues.

But what is the solution? With have just over 700 million doses administered for a mere 399 million people into a population of 7.9 billion or so.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/peop ... ID_WRL~CHL

The most optimistic analysis, in my opinion, is that we might get 2 billion people inoculated with mRNA in 2021. The other vaccines will hopefully get a few billion more people. We're really only on track to vaccinate half the people in 2021. So to slow the virus, we need to use every effective vaccine *unless* a factory can be converted to make something better.

But as the recent J&J debacle has shown, vaccine production is hard. My opinion is there is normally years to debug manufacturing and our trying to do it quickly led to the 77 million doses suspect (OK, 15 million must be destroyed, 62 million suspect):
https://news.yahoo.com/62-million-doses ... 32534.html

The next wave is here. At this point only a lucky few can be picky on vaccine (I'll fully admit to being a lucky person). Most countries and thus most people would be just happy to have much more supply to have that chance to stay out of the hospital. Happy to have a reduced chance to transmit it to a child (even better, vaccinate the children, but that is something for the summer for the lucky early countries).

I'm happy my neighbor received J&J. I'll take a 74% reduced chance of infecting my kids over him having to wait weeks for better.

With a majority of vaccine not being mRNA in the UK, they have tamed the virus. Not perfectly (e.g., spread among the younger unvaccinated), but a good start.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:16 am

I was thinking of the AZ blood clots. What research has been done to other vaccines? We have links above showing birth control pills increase clotting, rather significantly.

It was hypothesized above J&J could have similar behavior. It is now under scrutiny:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/john ... -7mlsmttw8

While I celebrate how effective mRNA has proven to be, if we do not have AZ and J&J, that is a huge number of factories that will sit idle (or go back to making other non-Covid19 stuff) and thus that means hundreds of thousands more will die this year of Covid19, possibly even a million or so more deaths. :cry2:

There just aren't enough people who know how to make mRNA to ramp up enough factories fast enough. Intel had the right idea with "copy exactly" as that allowed their manufacturing team to perfect each factory quickly. But medicine factories are not all identical. That means more time to optimize and more investigation. While more people will learn, we cannot expect Pfizer and Moderna to ramp up any faster. I'm excited for Curevac as that brings on another team.

At this point I'll mention my sister again, a doctor in a coronavirus ward and a doctor who consults to the flu shot vaccination committee. She has been incredibly excited on mRNA. Adrenovirus, she was always concerned on the risk (based on her exposure to potential influenza shot candidates).
https://www.ibtimes.sg/are-adenovirus-b ... erns-52624

We need the adenovirus candidates (J&J, AZ, Sputnik V) as they are volume candidates. They scare me less than "killed virus" vaccines (which, in my opinion, have a mixed history).

I don't know the best path forward. Suggestions?

ThePointblank wrote:
Slovakia is not happy with the Russian Sputnik V vaccine, saying that the doses it received are different than the one that was reviewed, and suggesting that there are serious quality control issues:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/worl ... utnik.html

Russia’s vaccine diplomacy suffered a setback on Thursday when Slovakia, one of the few countries in Europe to order its Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine, said that the doses it purchased differed from a version reviewed favorably by a respected British medical journal.

A statement by Slovakia’s drug regulator questioning the Russian vaccine suggested potentially serious quality-control problems in the manufacture of Sputnik V and threatened recent progress made by Russia in winning acceptance for its product.

That progress has rested largely on a peer-reviewed article published in The Lancet in February that gave the Russian vaccine a thumbs-up. It said that Sputnik V had an 91.6 percent efficacy rate against Covid-19, an endorsement that Moscow has used to raise confidence in the vaccine and strengthen the Kremlin’s hand in vaccine diplomacy.

Slovakia’s regulator, the State Institute for Drug Control, however, said in a statement that vaccine batches imported into the East European country did “not have the same characteristics and properties” as the version of Sputnik V reviewed by The Lancet.


https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/04 ... k-vaccine/

Russia has asked Slovakia to return 200,000 doses of the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine after Slovak testing indicated serious quality control issues.

The Slovak regulatory agency, the State Institute for Drug Control, reported that the batches it received did not “have the same characteristics and properties” as the Sputnik vaccine that was peer-reviewed in the Lancet and found to be 91.6 percent effective.

In light of Slovakia’s doubts about the quality of the vaccine doses, Russia went on the attack on Twitter. Russia’s official “Sputnik V” Twitter account claimed in a thread that the Slovak regulator has “launched a disinformation campaign against #SputnikV and plans additional provocations.” The account labeled the agency’s testing results as “fake news.”

First kudos to Slovakia for running a quality control inspection instead of just accepting vaccine. Vaccine quality control is very difficult. (See the J&J issues that are being caught before distribution, I linked above). I am sad. I'm not a huge fan of Sputnik V overall.

That said, I would favor Sputnik V over nothing if the batch tested by the British had the same properties as what was delivered to Slovakia. If they differ, they are a different medicine and that opens up a while can of worms. I also am off the opinion that Sputnik V needs to be investigated for blood clotting too. As much as I'm pro-vaccine, I have unfortunately become of the opinion that the adenovirus vaccines need to be looked into for blood clot risk. Now, I remain of the opinion there are ways to mitigate the risk (aspirin, light exercise) too. The far sighted look ahead of project warp speed to develop multiple families of vaccines is proving wise.

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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:51 am

lightsaber wrote:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Chile only doing one dose of SinoVac, interesting video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGXHpkxtZvo

My opinion is SinoVac definitely needs two doses to really slow transmission.

c933103 wrote:
Question:
As it's known that, some vaccines like AstraZeneca and other non-mRNA vaccines, have lower effectiveness in suppressing the virus transmission, while still effective at preventing hospitalization and mild and severe symptom.

In other words, the percentage of asymptomatic carrier of the virus would increase.

Wouldn't it result in the virus spreading around more easily as it's less likely for asymptomatic carriers to be tested and quarantined, thus more chance for them to spread the virus?


Carriers should still have lower viral loads and a shorter time frame they transmit. So I hypothesize the transmission should be reduced.
AZ cuts transmission by 2/3rds after just one dose:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/astrazene ... ose-study/

J&J reduces asymptomatic transmission 74%:
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19 ... s-fda-says

My opinion is that the Western vaccines all reduce asymptomatic transmission.
AZ in the UK looks to be amazing, but how much is lockdown. e.g., France vs. the EU in general is very close in vaccination (and I assume which vaccines), but the behavior (lack of lockdowns, schooling, perhaps weather) of a few weeks ago spiked cases.

However, both the UK and Chile did the one dose strategy. Chile's has not been as successful. I've noticed the reduction in transmissions is close enough to the rated efficacy. So a 2 dose SinoVac has just over 50% efficacy , which means the one dose is some discount. Considering the UAE is trying 3 dose with the different Sinopharm to establish enough immunity, I am of the opinion Chile hasn't been able to fully tame the virus as the transmission is still too high (probably asymptomatic, I'm going to assume most people will try not to get other people sick).

https://fintechzoom.com/fintech_news_si ... 20data.%29

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... +Union~CHL

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union

https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/national ... uxbndlbing

So I think asymptomatic transmission will decrease as the likelihood should decrease, I hypothesize about the efficacy rate less, and the duration should be reduced. However, if behavior is more towards transmission (less lockdown), then it will increase transmission. This is why it takes a very high fraction of society vaccinated to matter.

Herd immunity will not mean no transmission. It will not mean no deaths either. It just means the risk is low enough to allow "normal" life to resume. Each person (including children) will need to be vaccinated to protect themselves. It will be the side benefit that they are less likely to transmit the disease.

We've discussed many times in this thread how viral load and that will reduce transmission.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/co ... udy-664181

So all evidence is the opposite of yoru theory. Vaccines will reduce transmission for a given behavior. Since people will misbehave, it is necessary to get vaccine to all.

The mRNA vaccines are just 90%+ efficacy. That drop an Ro of 4 down to 0.4 or much less (disease burns out quickly, see Israel or UK which is also doing lockdown). The low efficacy SinoVac will only drop that down to a theoretical Ro of 2. Errr... that means to get Ro < 1, with SinoVac, everyone must be vaccinated or have natural immunity. :white: While Israel, with 90% efficacy slowed the virus to a non-event iwith 60% vaccinated (plus natural immunity) and the UK has done really well with 45% vaccinated (plus high natural immunity and lockdown), the lower efficacy will have issues.

But what is the solution? With have just over 700 million doses administered for a mere 399 million people into a population of 7.9 billion or so.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/peop ... ID_WRL~CHL

The most optimistic analysis, in my opinion, is that we might get 2 billion people inoculated with mRNA in 2021. The other vaccines will hopefully get a few billion more people. We're really only on track to vaccinate half the people in 2021. So to slow the virus, we need to use every effective vaccine *unless* a factory can be converted to make something better.

But as the recent J&J debacle has shown, vaccine production is hard. My opinion is there is normally years to debug manufacturing and our trying to do it quickly led to the 77 million doses suspect (OK, 15 million must be destroyed, 62 million suspect):
https://news.yahoo.com/62-million-doses ... 32534.html

The next wave is here. At this point only a lucky few can be picky on vaccine (I'll fully admit to being a lucky person). Most countries and thus most people would be just happy to have much more supply to have that chance to stay out of the hospital. Happy to have a reduced chance to transmit it to a child (even better, vaccinate the children, but that is something for the summer for the lucky early countries).

I'm happy my neighbor received J&J. I'll take a 74% reduced chance of infecting my kids over him having to wait weeks for better.

With a majority of vaccine not being mRNA in the UK, they have tamed the virus. Not perfectly (e.g., spread among the younger unvaccinated), but a good start.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

LIghtsaber

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201 ... -says.aspx
One thing about this virus is that asymptomatic patients have higher viral load
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marcelh
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:07 am

art wrote:
I accept that there may be an increased risk of blood clots with AZ vaccine. If so, yes, governments should restrict its use and offer other vaccines.

I accept that there is an increased risk of blood clots for women taking the contraceptive pill. Ergo governments should restrict its use and offer other methods of contraception.

Research published in The Lancet found that oral contraceptives tripled the risk of blood clots...


https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/ri ... ts/106257/

We must avoid things that increase the risk of thrombosis, musn't we?

Non discussion. You don’t have really a choice which vaccine you will be given. I know a lot of women don’t taking the pill because of the health issues and there are a lot of alternatives available.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:14 pm

marcelh wrote:
art wrote:
I accept that there may be an increased risk of blood clots with AZ vaccine. If so, yes, governments should restrict its use and offer other vaccines.

I accept that there is an increased risk of blood clots for women taking the contraceptive pill. Ergo governments should restrict its use and offer other methods of contraception.

Research published in The Lancet found that oral contraceptives tripled the risk of blood clots...


https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/ri ... ts/106257/

We must avoid things that increase the risk of thrombosis, musn't we?

Non discussion. You don’t have really a choice which vaccine you will be given. I know a lot of women don’t taking the pill because of the health issues and there are a lot of alternatives available.


Well, from the same article:

The FDA estimates that the risk of birth control users developing a serious blood clot is three to nine women out of 10,000, every year.


3 to 9 in 10,000 = 300 to 900 in a million.

From https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mhra ... lood-clots

By 31 March 20.2 million doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca had been given in the UK meaning the overall risk of these blood clots is approximately 4 people in a million who receive the vaccine.


So, according to UK data, having an AZ jab is about 2%-5% as dangerous as taking the contraceptive pill for a year. If the contraceptive pill numbers do not require action to avoid thrombosis risk, why take action to avoid using something that looks 95%-98% less dangerous? Does not make sense to me.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:07 pm

I still suspect many of these people getting adverse reactions to the vaccine are infected unknowingly with Covid at the time of their vaccine. My doctor actually sent an email saying he recommends getting a rapid Covid test the day of your vaccine or before as a precaution because he suspects that perhaps some of the complications arising are a result of people with Covid getting the vaccine
 
marcelh
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:52 pm

art wrote:
marcelh wrote:
art wrote:
I accept that there may be an increased risk of blood clots with AZ vaccine. If so, yes, governments should restrict its use and offer other vaccines.

I accept that there is an increased risk of blood clots for women taking the contraceptive pill. Ergo governments should restrict its use and offer other methods of contraception.



https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/ri ... ts/106257/

We must avoid things that increase the risk of thrombosis, musn't we?

Non discussion. You don’t have really a choice which vaccine you will be given. I know a lot of women don’t taking the pill because of the health issues and there are a lot of alternatives available.


Well, from the same article:

The FDA estimates that the risk of birth control users developing a serious blood clot is three to nine women out of 10,000, every year.


3 to 9 in 10,000 = 300 to 900 in a million.

From https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mhra ... lood-clots

By 31 March 20.2 million doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca had been given in the UK meaning the overall risk of these blood clots is approximately 4 people in a million who receive the vaccine.


So, according to UK data, having an AZ jab is about 2%-5% as dangerous as taking the contraceptive pill for a year. If the contraceptive pill numbers do not require action to avoid thrombosis risk, why take action to avoid using something that looks 95%-98% less dangerous? Does not make sense to me.


You miss my point by a mile...
What does matter is that younger people (< 60 years old) and taking the AZ vaccine are having about the same chance to die of Corona. That’s what matter.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:22 pm

Another site shut down due to J&J adverse reactions (3rd site):
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/johnson-jo ... e-effects/

I'm not going to quote that article as... it is written by someone obviously very fearful.

What matters as there seem to be more adverse reactions. Why? My advocacy for vaccines has been very high, but I do believe in the process. So we need to figure this out.

I have personally experienced the impact of the shortage, or more precisely a friend. The larger local vaccine sites (Forum) used to be flexible on appointment times (we could go a few days earlier or later). Now... they are turning away people who are early (not by hours, but earlier by a day or so) as the lack of J&J is pushing people to flood the other sites. Upthread others posted how people are making multiple vaccine appointments and then skipping the other appointments (not canceling); with the J&J appointments being canceled, I speculate they are making the mRNA appointments and that is drying up the supply.

We are starting to lose the battle between vaccination and new cases in the USA. The "relief" of natural immunity from the last wave seems to no longer be enough. New York state's constantly high burn rate concerns me as well as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The successful vaccinations (Israel, UK) are at much higher vaccine rates than our about a third of the population.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

marcelh wrote:
art wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Non discussion. You don’t have really a choice which vaccine you will be given. I know a lot of women don’t taking the pill because of the health issues and there are a lot of alternatives available.


Well, from the same article:

The FDA estimates that the risk of birth control users developing a serious blood clot is three to nine women out of 10,000, every year.


3 to 9 in 10,000 = 300 to 900 in a million.

From https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mhra ... lood-clots

By 31 March 20.2 million doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca had been given in the UK meaning the overall risk of these blood clots is approximately 4 people in a million who receive the vaccine.


So, according to UK data, having an AZ jab is about 2%-5% as dangerous as taking the contraceptive pill for a year. If the contraceptive pill numbers do not require action to avoid thrombosis risk, why take action to avoid using something that looks 95%-98% less dangerous? Does not make sense to me.


You miss my point by a mile...
What does matter is that younger people (< 60 years old) and taking the AZ vaccine are having about the same chance to die of Corona. That’s what matter.

I posted an infographic earlier. Under 30 have 2x the bad consequences from the virus than AZ, but that is too high. Please post a source on death rates being about the same chance, that I haven't seen. That said, I agree with 2x bad consequences virus to vaccine is too poor a ratio and thus they stopped the vaccine.

But here is the kicker, AZ slows the virus transmission. I posted above how a single dose reduces transmission 65%. If you don't vaccinate, more people will have adverse reactions as they will get the virus (there will just not be enough mRNA). I do not claim to know the solution, but we are in a bind. Young people will do far worse if the vaccination rate isn't brought up to the levels enough to create a herd immunity. This will be a challenge.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:41 pm

marcelh wrote:
You miss my point by a mile...
What does matter is that younger people (< 60 years old) and taking the AZ vaccine are having about the same chance to die of Corona. That’s what matter.

Interesting that no one so far has been able to state the case so simply.
If more did as you have done, a better discussion would be held versus the adversarial positions being taken as supporters / defenders of various vaccines.
I must admit that it is strange that like vaccines are not having the same effect, on the person, not the production of the vaccines, perhaps it is just down to less scrutiny?

We all accept that this is an unusual event and the world has accepted that we will deploy vaccines without the previous years of research and testing, nations who do not want to subject their citizens can just continue their non-medical measures of protection and medical measures of treatment of the infected.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:25 pm

Interesting analysis. Risk of AZ is the same as driving in a car for 250 miles:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p09d7jvk

Basically risk from AZ very low. Art has a point, why the noise from AZ, not the pill.
We need to understand the risks. Not vaccinating someone means at least increasing in the risk of transmitting Covid19 by a minimum of 3X.
There is risk to individuals and risk to the group.

Now the good thing in a western society is we question. We debate. This highlights the lack of public data on the non-western vaccines. When do we get that data?

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:35 pm

lightsaber wrote:
We need to understand the risks.


If Covid has demonstrated anything, it is that humans, as a collective, are NOT good at understanding risks and statistics and acting rationally upon them.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:21 pm

China's CDC admits Chinese vaccines are not great : https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... protection

I have been given the Moderna 5G 1.0 jab, no ill effect after a couple of hours.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:34 pm

lightsaber wrote:
French health authority approval 2nd dose mRNA instead of AZ:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BV2W7

I'd like to know the research. I posted way upthread the UK was researching various combinations, but I thought the study went until June.

I am in favor of AZ then mRNA to stretch out the mRNA. But what is the science? Is there a safety study?

Lightsaber


I don't think there is any new research.

I suspect the idea is to give more protection, and a couple of months later if vaccine production excepting AZ is as expected (or better than expected) these people might be given a 2nd dose of the mRNA.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:46 pm

Francoflier wrote:
If Covid has demonstrated anything, it is that humans, as a collective, are NOT good at understanding risks and statistics and acting rationally upon them.

Perhaps the best thing I've seen in this thread. Completely agreed. And I think this cuts both ways: those who overreact and those who under-react.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:09 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-vaccines
As Taiwan reach out to other countries so as to help supplying vaccine to Paraguay, a Taiwanese alley who was being offered Chinese vaccine under the condition that the country need to break tie with Taiwan, Beijing slammed Taiwan's move as attempt to seek Taiwan independence
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:28 pm

In a few weeks, first Novavax to go to fill and prep:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... 53SyunNh8M

Good news that Novavax is moving forward. Although, I had hopes of more vaccines before now. The article alludes to global supply challenges.
For Israel a 90%+ effective vaccine with 60%+ of the population injected seems, combined with naturally acquired immunity, to just be enough.
For the UK, 45% with lockdown and natural immunity is working well.
I'm am off the opinion 75% is what is required to reign in variants. Let us see how vaccine supply and acceptance holds out with all the challenges.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... +Union~CHL

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:03 pm

"Interesting analysis. Risk of AZ is the same as driving in a car for 250 miles:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p09d7jvk"

Given that in the US there is one death per 100 million passenger miles, I would say driving is safer than the AZ
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:46 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
"Interesting analysis. Risk of AZ is the same as driving in a car for 250 miles:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p09d7jvk"

Given that in the US there is one death per 100 million passenger miles, I would say driving is safer than the AZ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_veh ... S._by_year

Considering how many tens of thousands die each year due to automobiles, I would argue the opposite. With a worst case 1 in a million deaths (per prior link), AZ among the high risk group would kill 1% of that due to automobiles in the USA if everyone was in the high risk group.

Giving AZ to slow the virus would save more than it would hurt. However, as per the chart above, not enough for the under 30 group, in particular, those on the pill.

We're only getting out of this with mass vaccination. I'm not seeing a way to readily convert J&J and AZ to mRNA. Now, do not get me wrong, I am excited high efficacy vaccine production is increasing. But without AZ, few countries will be safe this summer (in particular with the J&J production debacle that keeps on going).
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/jandj ... uxbndlbing

Something was botched at both US J&J vendors. The EU needs AZ & J&J.

I keep looking for a sudden boost in vaccinations, feel free to change the country in the chart, but what matters is with these issues, the ability to vaccinate sufficiently this summer is sliding. Oh, I know about the new German production of Pfizer being filled and finished in France (I posted a link prior in the thread). I am of the opinion production promises will always exceed actual deliveries of vaccines. I would like to stop seeing the 'long haul' symptoms in everyone. That means vaccinating everyone. Soon Pfizer will be diverted to protect the children (I hope). For schools are breeding grounds for disease and stopping it there would be wonderful and necessary.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... untry=~USA

Interesting times ahead, but the risk from vaccine shouldn't be put out of proportion. 1% the risk of automobiles in the USA doesn't seem like a huge risk to myself. (1 in a million is only 330 deaths in the USA.).

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:48 pm

Aesma wrote:
China's CDC admits Chinese vaccines are not great : https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... protection

I have been given the Moderna 5G 1.0 jab, no ill effect after a couple of hours.

First, thank you for your insights.

I'm amused you are playing on the 5G fear mongering too.

I personally see little, if any risk of mRNA after AZ, so I approve. I just wondered the basis of understanding.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:10 pm

I've now read somewhere there is a stronger immune response from using two vaccines. Which I guess is good for protection against the virus, but might not be good regarding "runaway immune responses".
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:51 pm

Aesma wrote:
I've now read somewhere there is a stronger immune response from using two vaccines. Which I guess is good for protection against the virus, but might not be good regarding "runaway immune responses".

There is a broader immunity
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/happens ... 32950.html

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), while more research is needed on the subject, there should be no side effects to mixing vaccines. The Cleveland Clinic turned to the CDC’s findings in their own research on mixing different types of COVID-19 vaccine shots in February

With COVID-19 vaccines becoming more accessible to people around the world, scientists in the United Kingdom are almost two months into testing whether it’s safe to mix vaccination types. These trials, currently being held at Oxford University in London, began after the country gave their medical professionals the okay to mix vaccine shots in January. Volunteers in the trial will either receive one dose of the Pfizer vaccine followed by one dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine, the reverse, or two regular doses of each vaccine type. Eight hundred and thirty-three volunteers over the age of 50 are being tested, and the gaps between the groups range from four to 12 weeks to get a clearer picture of how everyone is affected.

Scientists and medical professionals began testing the blood of volunteers in the U.K. trial in March, and it is expected to continue through April.


What do you mean by runaway immune response? With Covid19, that is only an issue with the unvaccinated as far as I know:
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... -19--67450

Vaccines do a great job of keeping people out of the hospital as the body is spending less effort doing attempted defense that doesn't bring down the vaccine.

Vaccines have broken the link between infections and deaths:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/va ... NewsSearch

I've been an advocate of AZ then mRNA for a while. The mRNA just needs a booster to work. Alas, more research is needed and the Oxford study should really help.
The most encouraging thing is how much vaccines are lowing Ro.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... on~CHL~FRA

There are really only a few tools to lower Ro and lockdowns keep proving the most effective until high vaccination rates are achieved.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:51 am

France is extending interval between 1st and 2nd dose from 4 to 6 weeks to stretch out the supply:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... KKBN2BX0L6

In my opinion, this will reduce transmission as two people vaccinated 1-dose stop more transmission than one person 2-dose.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:41 am

Aesma wrote:
China's CDC admits Chinese vaccines are not great : https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... protection

I have been given the Moderna 5G 1.0 jab, no ill effect after a couple of hours.

As seen far too frequently in the media, the focus is solely on efficacy. The other statistics, the prevention of death, prevention of serious illness, and reduction of spread, are not published. In my opinion, those are more important.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:17 am

On top of extending the time between 2 doses (not for me, it starts in a couple of days), the French minister for health has also opened vaccination to the 55yo starting tomorrow, with AZ only. Next Friday, the 60yo can get any vaccine. It's becoming confusing and complicated... I wonder if for certain publics it wouldn't be better to offer "vaccination" and not let people know in advance what vaccine it is. Then let family doctors do the convincing.

When I got vaccinated yesterday, at the national velodrome (built for the 2012 err 2024 Paris Olympics), I waited quite long at a desk with a doctor checking I was eligible to get vaccinated, not because there was a problem (in fact my doctor had already done it but it wasn't clear to me), but because of problems with the computer. I saw several people who had registered themselves for vaccination without a doctor's note and didn't fit in the criteria (too young without enough comorbidities, or not at all). Even a couple of women in their 20s looking fit, I thought maybe nurses, but no, they got sent home. For some cases the doctors "made an exception", like one with moderate asthma.

This tells me several things :

- the criteria needs to be lowered, or unvaccinated older people need to be called one by one to know why they're not and either give them an appointment or register them as not wanting the vaccine.
- vaccines are in short supplies and not to be "wasted" on people not meeting the criteria. I heard a doctor say it will remain tough for about 10 days then they expect more.
- people avoid the Moderna vaccine, which I've seen confirmed later in a newspaper. Apparently the fact it ends in "a" has people confusing it with AZ... Where I was there were plenty of Moderna available, but everyone else was there for Pfizer...

aerolimani wrote:
Aesma wrote:
China's CDC admits Chinese vaccines are not great : https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... protection

I have been given the Moderna 5G 1.0 jab, no ill effect after a couple of hours.

As seen far too frequently in the media, the focus is solely on efficacy. The other statistics, the prevention of death, prevention of serious illness, and reduction of spread, are not published. In my opinion, those are more important.


It is important if you get some other advantage, for example mass production allowing quick, mass vaccination. Or if you don't have a choice. It's better than nothing. Several western manufacturers have stopped their vaccine development because they were getting similar results...

lightsaber wrote:
What do you mean by runaway immune response? With Covid19, that is only an issue with the unvaccinated as far as I know:
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... -19--67450


I'm talking about the clotting issue, which appears to be an immune response to the vaccine.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:43 pm

Aesma wrote:
On top of extending the time between 2 doses (not for me, it starts in a couple of days), the French minister for health has also opened vaccination to the 55yo starting tomorrow, with AZ only. Next Friday, the 60yo can get any vaccine. It's becoming confusing and complicated... I wonder if for certain publics it wouldn't be better to offer "vaccination" and not let people know in advance what vaccine it is. Then let family doctors do the convincing.

There are several ways to solve the "crisis of choice" in vaccines. Your method works for those who have decided to get a vaccine and are just struck on the type.
My opinion is that most just need more education. I convinced last week several coworkers to sign up for appointments by answering their concerns. Some was just vaccines in general, but some was the differences between side effects and efficacy. Since there is a difference and it made a difference when they were willing to become vaccinated, I do not think anyone I convinced to sign up for a vaccine last week would have signed up with not knowing more about the vaccines in words different than the current public campaigns.

Two just wanted the minimum time risk of side effects. Most people just cannot take a few down days, so they must plan when they might deal with side effects. So these two went with J&J (unfortunately, they are likely to have their appointments cancelled, but at least they took the first step).

More were interested in risk of transmitting to loved ones and efficacy. This group all signed up for mRNA.

One just needed more understanding and he signed up after asking questions for 45 minutes. I'm not sure what he signed up for, but he really wanted to make an informed decision and the way the information was presented had nothing to do with his concerns, so if you will, I translated for him.

Please apply good salesmanship (Dale Carnegie) instead of "calling out" people. Slowly and steadily I convince people; often I plant the seed to have a conversation and they follow up days later. Now half I'm being lazy and doing the "yes dear" approach and just having the spouse sign them up. :devil:

Some is many overplay the risks of a vaccination versus the consequences of the disease. So I point out the statistics of the long haul side effects, while fully admitting mine are minor (but getting more annoying, in particular the tinnitus). I have heard more on tinnitus than ever before. However, every single person I talked to with tinnitus (not from Covid19, I do not know any unvaccinated with it as the vaccine is supposed to really help the healing) signed up for mRNA with a full understanding it will get worse before it gets better (supposedly the nerve damage and then the nerve healing brings it on, but I have no good scientific links, so take this as an opinion).

Thank you for the clarification.

I think AZ is safe enough, but it is for each to make their decision. I personally like the idea of AZ first dose and then mRNA 2nd as my reading leads me to believe that will provide just as good of immunity as 2x mRNA and thus would "stretch out" the mRNA supply.

People need to be comfortable. A year of lockdown has people squirrely. Most vax-hesitant seem to be in the group of people just sick and tired of being told what to do. So it is time for conversations. My conversations are working.

Now part of this is the most fun group of (degreed) engineers at work has made it quite clear their activities are for the vaccinated only. This motivated quite a few to take the plunge, but social organizers mandating work much better than "The Man" demanding a vaccine passport.

I personally only want to hang around those who are vaccinated (I am concerned as a parent there is not yet a vaccine for my children). I also do not know how to get around the hesitancy now involved with AZ (more resistance than facts and there are known routines to reduce clotting such as exercise).
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~DEU~NLD

I do not know if there is enough supply to improve the above link's trend lines. What I do know is that it takes at least a third of the population vaccinated to start to slow the spread and more is definitely better. The only mandates for vaccine should be school attendance, but that requires a fully released (not emergency approval) group of vaccines. There is the problem, a vaccine must go through all the checks before there can be a mandate for all but a few professions (e.g., link above on Italy and their health care staff).

It will be a few months before there is sufficient supply to get the 12+ (I assume Pfizer is approved for 12+ soon) vaccinated. So let us persuade until then.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:52 pm

Sinovac may be 73.4% effective against transmission 5 weeks after second dose. This, per a study conducted at a Brazilian university hospital that had 20,000 workers vaccinated.

Link in Portuguese only:

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/2021 ... nais-do-hc

Article has a positive tone because they call it a “real life” study and not a carefully orchestrated clinical trial. The original 50.7% effectiveness was measured 2 weeks after second dose.

I don’t know how much weight to put on this. But sounds good!
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