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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:28 pm

Aesma wrote:
I have been given the Moderna 5G 1.0 jab, no ill effect after a couple of hours.


Welcome to the Moderna Club Swarm!

I represent Swarm Pfizer.
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:50 pm

In the US they're neck and neck but in Europe Moderna is still pretty rare.
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:21 pm

Aesma wrote:
In the US they're neck and neck but in Europe Moderna is still pretty rare.


I was a little surprised you got Moderna. In the US it looks to be about 47% Moderna and 53% Pfizer between the two RNA vaccines. Only 4.5M doses of J&J have been given. (reference)

But I had heard that Moderna is primarily being used in the USA at this point, although I have heard of a few Europeans getting it now.
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:58 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Aesma wrote:
In the US they're neck and neck but in Europe Moderna is still pretty rare.


I was a little surprised you got Moderna. In the US it looks to be about 47% Moderna and 53% Pfizer between the two RNA vaccines. Only 4.5M doses of J&J have been given. (reference)

But I had heard that Moderna is primarily being used in the USA at this point, although I have heard of a few Europeans getting it now.

I like this graph for vaccine types. It visually shows the relative importance of each vaccine.
Default is the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... nufacturer

USA
This is 80.94 million doses of Moderna
92.36 million doses of Pfizer
5.38 million doses of J&J

Germany (doses in millions):
0.91 Moderna
3.59 AZ
13.08 Pfizer

Chile (doses in millions)
1.41 Pfizer
10.59 SinoVac

Moderna has factory in Switzerland producing:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-modern ... 38475.html
Moderna declined to release specifics about the monthly dose range bound for Europe, though it previously has confirmed 2021 deliveries would include 160 million doses for the EU and 17 million doses for Britain. Worldwide, it has committed to producing at least 700 million doses this year.

Less than the production of Pfizer, but still substantial.
But unfortunately, Moderna's goals for 2021 are:
Pfizer, over 2.5 billion:
https://www.pharmalive.com/biontech-pfi ... -2021.html#:~:text=%28Photo%20provided%20by%20the%20City%20of%20Portage%29%20Pfizer,12%2C%20open%20to%20investors%20and%20the%20general%20public.

Already noted Moderna 700 million

Astrazenica: 2 billion doses:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/astraze ... ccine.html

Johnson & Johnson: Over a billion doses:
https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-ann ... .%E2%80%9D

Novavax: 60 million for UK, plus some huge quantity for the world (I couldn't find any good link, I'd appreciate one)
https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/tees ... r-20237098

Valneva: 60 million for UK: I actually don't know if that is all in 2021 or if more might be made for the world:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-ed ... e-55840567

Curevac: 50 million by end of 2021:
https://www.curevac.com/en/2021/03/04/c ... te-cvncov/

Sputnik V is some large amount, I couldn't find the production rate. It looks to be in the .3 to 1.5 billion dose range in 2021, but man as that range shows, a serious guess and dependent upon a sharp increase in production, mostly in India.

India to make 852 million doses:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/112 ... %2C%202021.
only that over 2 million people have been given it:
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2021 ... ine-abroad

Some amount in Algeria: https://kelo.com/2021/04/07/algeria-to- ... september/
10 million in Germany (in 2021, not the total):
https://whbl.com/2021/04/09/german-plan ... -year-end/

Chinese vaccines are in high production. 3 billion doses by year end:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2BX06B

Bharat Biotech 700 million doses:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... 1-13891784

So using a round 7.9 billion population of earth (I know, all estimates require huge assumptions):

So of the total, I see 3.25 billion doses of the three mRNA. Enough for 1.626 billion or 20.5% of the world's population
AZ + J&J (both with production and blood clot concerns), 3 billion doses or 2 billion people or 25.3% of the population
China at 3 billion is 1.5 billion people or 19% of the world population
Sputnick V anywhere between 3.8% to 19%. Yea.. Not exactly much of a prediction there, I know...
All the others are a mere 820 million dosses or 410 million people or 5.2% of the global population.

Best case scenario is 73.8% to 89% of the global population, at best. If we are picky and only do mRNA, only just over 20% (which only helps certain countries).
I'm a cynic on production and as a betting man, I'm going to be on under 50% of the global population vaccinated in 2021 as for example the slow ramp up of J&J and AZ as well as Sputnick V means I think we will be quite a few billion doses short of the numbers I quoted. I hope to be proven wrong.

Considering how Chile is doing, I'm thinking that the wealthiest countries will buy either enough vaccine or enough production to have this in control in 2021 (many by late summer 2021), but we will have global issues through the year. :cry2: Next year, we should tame this virus.

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BaconButty
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:21 am

art wrote:
Is the UK vaccination programme heading for problems?

The UK adopted a strategy of increasing the interval between first and second doses to 12 weeks.

I log data for England (rather than UK). On Jan 11 England had administered

1.959 million first doses
0.374 million second doses

12 weeks later (Apr 5) England had administered 4.344 million second doses (way ahead of the 1.959 million scheduled). In the last 2 weeks the rolling 7 day average relationship between first and second doses has altered from about 6:1 to about 2:3. Is the UK guarding against an inability to give a second dose within the allotted 12 weeks?

I guess the UK is running out of vaccine. I wonder when more stocks of vaccine will become available in the UK. It is starting to look like the first dose programme is reducing to a trickle. First doses administered in England

16 Mar-22 Mar = 2.7 million
23 Mar-29 Mar = 1.8 million
30 Mar-05 Apr = 0.65 million

Can anyone in the know reassure me that the UK vaccination programme is not about to slow down from a sprint to a crawl?


Hi Art - been busy for a few days and missed this. Think I had my vaccine (AZ) the same day as you - Saturday 20th of March? If so congrats, we have some level of immunity at least. Felt a bit of a head cold on the Sunday, and my arm hurt like hell for a few days, but no thrombosis ;-)

I don't know if you saw, but the Cabinet Office guidance on vaccine availability was adjusted downward recently from an average of 3.2m/week (in England not the UK) to 2.7m. It's hidden away in this report. That's the central assumption - the worst case is 2.5m/week, and they haven't disclosed a best case. So for the whole of the UK the central assumption is now 3.2m/week, roughly made up of 2m AZ, 1m Pfizer and 200k Moderna. I would hope that factors in a write off of the AZ vaccines from India and Holland. I also expect that doesn't include Novavax and Janssen as they haven't been approved yet.

So my quick sums have it at around 53m first doses and 37m second doses by the end of July - knock 4m off the first doses for the worst case. Given the current target population is 52m, and we would be pleased with overall take up of 90%, so 47m, there's still a little bit of wiggle room for the end-July target. Still a big drop from earlier figures which suggested we might reach it at some point in June. Never mind.

The potential fly in the ointment is the under 30's being offered an alternative to AZ. We may have got lucky in that respect. With leaving large gaps between doses, a bit of a wave pattern has emerged, with AZ and Pfizer slightly out of phase. So in March and April, hardly any first doses of Pfizer were (or will be) done - they're using almost all of it for second doses. The good news is, that in June and July, almost all the Pfizer will go to first doses. AZ on the other hand, will be blasting out second doses in June for the big numbers who got their first jab in March. Add in Moderna (mostly first doses), plus any Novavax (first deliveries May) and Janssen (first deliveries July) and the youngsters should be well covered. I can see why Van Tam was quite sanguine about it.

The interesting corollary is that the unpleasantness with our neighbours may not have had a massive impact on the rollout, since the pacing item would have been non-AZ vaccines for the under 30's..

An example from the most recent yellow card report of the "out of phase" rollout:

This safety update report is based on detailed analysis of data up to 28 March 2021. At this date, an estimated 10.9 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 19.5 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 3.7 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered. This represents an increase of 5.3 million on the previous week, predominately Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine.


More optimistic projections in this report from the Guardian today:

Airfinity, which tracks vaccination programmes worldwide, forecasts that 75% of the population can be fully immunised in the UK by the first week in August, a level where herd immunity arguably begins to take effect – though variants and the potential need for booster jabs could impact this significantly.

That would be about a week and a half behind the US, which can reach the same level by late July, but six weeks ahead of the EU, which the company estimates will achieve the same milestone towards the end of September.


So that's 50m having had a second dose by the first week in August - that's way ahead of my figures. It also implies extremely low levels of hesitancy, or vaccinating non-vulnerable under 18's. And big numbers of Novavax.

Bit of an edit: Re-reading your post about the predominance of second doses at the moment - more waves. Both AZ and Pfizer have lot's of second doses to do this month.

As for why Second doses are being done early - heard a couple of explanations for this. My dad heard about Ian McKellen (I think) getting his second dose after 8 weeks, so when he was at his GP for an unrelated matter, he asked what was so special about "that wizard fella". The Doctor said he didn't know, but that he understood that vulnerable people were getting second doses early. I wonder though, if you might be right in that they're immunising with Pfizer early because they need to reserve the doses, but there's no benefit then to delaying the second dose. Either way, the expectation is that as the program goes on, the longer gap will become the norm - the SAGE report I linked upthread assumed an average of 11 weeks.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:06 am

DocLightning wrote:
Aesma wrote:
In the US they're neck and neck but in Europe Moderna is still pretty rare.


I was a little surprised you got Moderna. In the US it looks to be about 47% Moderna and 53% Pfizer between the two RNA vaccines. Only 4.5M doses of J&J have been given. (reference)

But I had heard that Moderna is primarily being used in the USA at this point, although I have heard of a few Europeans getting it now.

Up in Canada, it's been primarily Pfizer, per what the Federal government's delivery schedule is showing:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/ ... llout.html

It's basically, 62% Pfizer, 19% Moderna, and the rest being AstraZeneca shipments.

And this trend seems to continue; the majority of the upcoming deliveries of vaccines are primarily the Pfizer vaccine, with about a million doses each week.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:56 am

Got my second Pfizer dose last week. Took off work even, anticipating a strong reaction.
Not even a slight fever. Happy to have received both of my doses!
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:57 am

My arm isn't sore anymore, however I still have a bump around the injection site.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:40 am

BaconButty wrote:
The potential fly in the ointment is the under 30's being offered an alternative to AZ. We may have got lucky in that respect. With leaving large gaps between doses, a bit of a wave pattern has emerged, with AZ and Pfizer slightly out of phase. So in March and April, hardly any first doses of Pfizer were (or will be) done - they're using almost all of it for second doses. The good news is, that in June and July, almost all the Pfizer will go to first doses. AZ on the other hand, will be blasting out second doses in June for the big numbers who got their first jab in March. Add in Moderna (mostly first doses), plus any Novavax (first deliveries May) and Janssen (first deliveries July) and the youngsters should be well covered. I can see why Van Tam was quite sanguine about it.

The interesting corollary is that the unpleasantness with our neighbours may not have had a massive impact on the rollout, since the pacing item would have been non-AZ vaccines for the under 30's..

An example from the most recent yellow card report of the "out of phase" rollout:

This safety update report is based on detailed analysis of data up to 28 March 2021. At this date, an estimated 10.9 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 19.5 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 3.7 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered. This represents an increase of 5.3 million on the previous week, predominately Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine.





I'm actually confused how well the UK is doing with the relatively low vaccination they have. With, roughly, two thirds being AZ, that implies a very effective vaccine in slowing transmissions of this virus. I believe more AZ would be a bonus (at least to the over-40s) and possibly measures could be taken to reduce the clotting?


https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... on~ISR~CHL

However, they're vaccination rate, even with one dose, isn't high enough to explain their incredibly low case rate:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union

The incredibly low new infections is amazing. Where did you get NovaVax first deliveries May for Novavax? I've been trying to find out if they will deliver any in April and I've yet to find a conclusive no. I'm just curious as with case rates going so low, no crisis, but I had hope the UK could get the first in arms a few weeks earlier. I'm also curious on who is supplying the J&J? The dispute with the neighbor has had an impact.

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BaconButty
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:

I'm actually confused how well the UK is doing with the relatively low vaccination they have. With, roughly, two thirds being AZ, that implies a very effective vaccine in slowing transmissions of this virus. I believe more AZ would be a bonus (at least to the over-40s) and possibly measures could be taken to reduce the clotting?


https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... on~ISR~CHL

However, they're vaccination rate, even with one dose, isn't high enough to explain their incredibly low case rate:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union

The incredibly low new infections is amazing. Where did you get NovaVax first deliveries May for Novavax? I've been trying to find out if they will deliver any in April and I've yet to find a conclusive no. I'm just curious as with case rates going so low, no crisis, but I had hope the UK could get the first in arms a few weeks earlier. I'm also curious on who is supplying the J&J? The dispute with the neighbor has had an impact.

LIghtsaber


As for the low infections - we're still in a lockdown, though it hasn't been observed nearly as strictly at the first. Schools reopened 5 weeks ago, in England at least, with seemingly no effect. Big changes today - Gyms, Hairdressers, beer gardens. We'll see.

Novavax - may comes from the reports at the point of GSK tie up, e.g. here

The finishing will begin at GSK’s facility in Barnard Castle in County Durham from early May.


Can't find chapter and verse, but earlier in the year we were supposed to get first doses in early April - per the Novavax CEO. BUT the UK facility - via fill and finish in Sweden - was only going to start deliveries in June/July, so presumably early doses were going to come from somewhere else - my guess would have been the Serum Institute in India. But they are having issues with raw ingredients, and there's an export ban - so I assume they have accelerated the UK chain in response. I could be wrong, and early doses may still come from India.

Again no link, but I believe the J&J comes from Madrid. I don't think it will arrive in time to play a significant part in our vaccine program, as, unlike Moderna and Pfizer they don't have ongoing trials in Children (?) assuming they are next on the list. Bit of an ethical minefield that, but for Kids with conditions like Cystic Fibrosis it will be a godsend. I'm sure you'll be looking at the same in the States pretty soon.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
cledaybuck
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:03 pm

BaconButty wrote:
I don't think it will arrive in time to play a significant part in our vaccine program, as, unlike Moderna and Pfizer they don't have ongoing trials in Children (?) assuming they are next on the list. Bit of an ethical minefield that, but for Kids with conditions like Cystic Fibrosis it will be a godsend. I'm sure you'll be looking at the same in the States pretty soon.

Pfizer asked the FDA for permission to add 12-15 year olds to the EUA just last week.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:34 pm

PPVRA wrote:
Sinovac may be 73.4% effective against transmission 5 weeks after second dose. This, per a study conducted at a Brazilian university hospital that had 20,000 workers vaccinated.

Link in Portuguese only:

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/2021 ... nais-do-hc

Article has a positive tone because they call it a “real life” study and not a carefully orchestrated clinical trial. The original 50.7% effectiveness was measured 2 weeks after second dose.

I don’t know how much weight to put on this. But sounds good!

Preliminary information is the 2nd dose should be given 2 weeks later with SinoVac:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/br ... NewsSearch

There is a reason effectiveness and effecacy are two different words in the vaccine community. The later is trials, effectiveness is the real world.

If all it takes is spacing out the doses a wee bit more, than that is a solution.

I want as much effective vaccine as possible. Now I am in swarm Pfizer, but that doesn't mean enough will be made.

Anecdotal evidence the J&J shortage is having an impact, the mRNA vaccination sites are seeing fewer missed appointments, starting mid last week, per verbal conversation with a doctor supporting one site and a pharmacist friend at another. Normally locally one can go in up to 3 days early for dose #2, not anymore. Sites are running low as the alternative was taken away.

I'm happy Chile's efforts will pay off, just with more of a time delay.

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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:44 pm

lightsaber : the UK has been in lockdown for 3 months, that's how the cases dropped.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:25 pm

Aesma wrote:
lightsaber : the UK has been in lockdown for 3 months, that's how the cases dropped.


Doesn't explain what we're seeing on it's own. Comparing the first and third lockdowns - the third being more effective - there's so much that's changed.

- The dominance of the far more transmissible and severe variant
- Children back in schools (as of March 8th - though they have had a couple of weeks off for Easter)
- Lower levels of compliance. My 2 kids are at Uni - let's just say they're still managing to get their 3 years of hedonism in. Covid went through their halls this wave like a dose of the clap.
- More activity even if compliant. So for example last year I did shopping for my parents who are in their 70's. Dropped it at the front door, rang the bell then had a chat from the end of the drive. Now they're out and about. And that's normal. More people are in offices, the number of cars on the road is dramatically higher. Restaurants that were shut have adapted and have switched to takeaway or "cook at home". I don't know if this is the same in France but it's a great time to be eating Michelin star food, even if you have to assemble it yourself. Still people working in Kitchens.

To balance that all out we have
- Vaccines
- Lateral flow testing
- A slightly better, if still half-arsed, border policy
- Immunity from previously catching it

To try to quantify it, as of last week the vaccination effort was reckoned to have saved 10,400 lives
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covi ... der-adults

Considering we still only have 7m with two doses I think that's an incredible testament to the vaccines doing their job. And it puts the 19 deaths from clotting into perspective.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:28 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
I don't think it will arrive in time to play a significant part in our vaccine program, as, unlike Moderna and Pfizer they don't have ongoing trials in Children (?) assuming they are next on the list. Bit of an ethical minefield that, but for Kids with conditions like Cystic Fibrosis it will be a godsend. I'm sure you'll be looking at the same in the States pretty soon.

Pfizer asked the FDA for permission to add 12-15 year olds to the EUA just last week.


That's fantastic. I realised they were doing trials, missed that they were this far down the line. It's so easy to get caught up in the big picture of vaccination rates, and infection rates, but I've heard some heartbreaking stories about kids with serious, often life limiting illnesses that a Covid infection may well kill them. Life shielding for the last year or so has been torture, for them and their families. Hopefully some relief on its way soon.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
cledaybuck
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:40 pm

BaconButty wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
I don't think it will arrive in time to play a significant part in our vaccine program, as, unlike Moderna and Pfizer they don't have ongoing trials in Children (?) assuming they are next on the list. Bit of an ethical minefield that, but for Kids with conditions like Cystic Fibrosis it will be a godsend. I'm sure you'll be looking at the same in the States pretty soon.

Pfizer asked the FDA for permission to add 12-15 year olds to the EUA just last week.


That's fantastic. I realised they were doing trials, missed that they were this far down the line. It's so easy to get caught up in the big picture of vaccination rates, and infection rates, but I've heard some heartbreaking stories about kids with serious, often life limiting illnesses that a Covid infection may well kill them. Life shielding for the last year or so has been torture, for them and their families. Hopefully some relief on its way soon.
Here's a link. Hopefully coming soon to a country near you.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/worl ... teens.html
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:08 pm

BaconButty wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

I'm actually confused how well the UK is doing with the relatively low vaccination they have. With, roughly, two thirds being AZ, that implies a very effective vaccine in slowing transmissions of this virus. I believe more AZ would be a bonus (at least to the over-40s) and possibly measures could be taken to reduce the clotting?


https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... on~ISR~CHL

However, they're vaccination rate, even with one dose, isn't high enough to explain their incredibly low case rate:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union

The incredibly low new infections is amazing. Where did you get NovaVax first deliveries May for Novavax? I've been trying to find out if they will deliver any in April and I've yet to find a conclusive no. I'm just curious as with case rates going so low, no crisis, but I had hope the UK could get the first in arms a few weeks earlier. I'm also curious on who is supplying the J&J? The dispute with the neighbor has had an impact.

LIghtsaber


As for the low infections - we're still in a lockdown, though it hasn't been observed nearly as strictly at the first. Schools reopened 5 weeks ago, in England at least, with seemingly no effect. Big changes today - Gyms, Hairdressers, beer gardens. We'll see.

Novavax - may comes from the reports at the point of GSK tie up, e.g. here

The finishing will begin at GSK’s facility in Barnard Castle in County Durham from early May.


Can't find chapter and verse, but earlier in the year we were supposed to get first doses in early April - per the Novavax CEO. BUT the UK facility - via fill and finish in Sweden - was only going to start deliveries in June/July, so presumably early doses were going to come from somewhere else - my guess would have been the Serum Institute in India. But they are having issues with raw ingredients, and there's an export ban - so I assume they have accelerated the UK chain in response. I could be wrong, and early doses may still come from India.

Again no link, but I believe the J&J comes from Madrid. I don't think it will arrive in time to play a significant part in our vaccine program, as, unlike Moderna and Pfizer they don't have ongoing trials in Children (?) assuming they are next on the list. Bit of an ethical minefield that, but for Kids with conditions like Cystic Fibrosis it will be a godsend. I'm sure you'll be looking at the same in the States pretty soon.


I don't have better information. But from what I found, I worry Novavax will only be available in June.

The following article from 31. March says

Does this contradict the links provided in your discussion? I don't believe so.
In this thread or the one about the EU strategy some one posted an AZ graph about the production time. They gave 2 month to grow the vaccine and 1 month for the the "fill & finish" and distribution...

The press release from FDB about Boris Johnson's factory visit, dated 13. February, speaks about production in the future.
https://fujifilmdiosynth.com/about-us/p ... ring-site/
Assuming production hadn't started than, but began endo of February, it would be ready end of April (+2 month). This fits well with your Guardian article saying
The finishing will begin at GSK’s facility in Barnard Castle in County Durham from early May.

If we add one month there for the "fill & finish" and distribution we are back to June as given by my first link.

I hope I'm wrong and the UK gets Novavax earlier...

Best regards and stay safe
Jonas
 
PPVRA
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:23 pm

lightsaber wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Sinovac may be 73.4% effective against transmission 5 weeks after second dose. This, per a study conducted at a Brazilian university hospital that had 20,000 workers vaccinated.

Link in Portuguese only:

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/2021 ... nais-do-hc

Article has a positive tone because they call it a “real life” study and not a carefully orchestrated clinical trial. The original 50.7% effectiveness was measured 2 weeks after second dose.

I don’t know how much weight to put on this. But sounds good!

Preliminary information is the 2nd dose should be given 2 weeks later with SinoVac:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/br ... NewsSearch

There is a reason effectiveness and effecacy are two different words in the vaccine community. The later is trials, effectiveness is the real world.

If all it takes is spacing out the doses a wee bit more, than that is a solution.

I want as much effective vaccine as possible. Now I am in swarm Pfizer, but that doesn't mean enough will be made.

Anecdotal evidence the J&J shortage is having an impact, the mRNA vaccination sites are seeing fewer missed appointments, starting mid last week, per verbal conversation with a doctor supporting one site and a pharmacist friend at another. Normally locally one can go in up to 3 days early for dose #2, not anymore. Sites are running low as the alternative was taken away.

I'm happy Chile's efforts will pay off, just with more of a time delay.

Lightsaber


So that’s a second study. The one I mentioned was one done at one particular hospital, where participants were vaccinated in January and February. Presumably with the standard spacing of the doses.
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:16 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I like this graph for vaccine types. It visually shows the relative importance of each vaccine.
Default is the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... nufacturer

USA
This is 80.94 million doses of Moderna
92.36 million doses of Pfizer
5.38 million doses of J&J


I will also point out that even if at "full vaccination" 50% of people will get Pfizer and 50% will get Moderna, Moderna will always appear to lag behind Pfizer because Pfizer's dosing schedule is 21 days and Moderna's is 28 days.
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:32 pm

Interesting notes out of Israel where roughly 55% are fully vaccinated.

The number of cases and percent positive are plummeting.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/serious-c ... -december/

evel in over four months on Wednesday, as the coronavirus pandemic continued to ebb in Israel.

According to the Health Ministry, there were 294 serious cases, the first time since early December the figure was below 300.


This is why we all need to get vaccinated.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
cledaybuck
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:28 pm

casinterest wrote:
Interesting notes out of Israel where roughly 55% are fully vaccinated.

The number of cases and percent positive are plummeting.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/serious-c ... -december/

evel in over four months on Wednesday, as the coronavirus pandemic continued to ebb in Israel.

According to the Health Ministry, there were 294 serious cases, the first time since early December the figure was below 300.


This is why we all need to get vaccinated.

Here are hospitalizations in Ohio. Hospitalizations among the elderly(the most vaccinated group) have gone sharply downward.
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2 ... roups.html
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:22 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Interesting notes out of Israel where roughly 55% are fully vaccinated.

The number of cases and percent positive are plummeting.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/serious-c ... -december/

evel in over four months on Wednesday, as the coronavirus pandemic continued to ebb in Israel.

According to the Health Ministry, there were 294 serious cases, the first time since early December the figure was below 300.


This is why we all need to get vaccinated.

Here are hospitalizations in Ohio. Hospitalizations among the elderly(the most vaccinated group) have gone sharply downward.
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2 ... roups.html

The best part of that link is it had fraction vaccinated.

The under 20 dropped 36% without much vaccination other than probably their parents.

20 somethings 10% vaccinated, 13.5% drop in hospital cases
30 something's 14% vaccinated, 16% drop
40 something's 17% vaccinated, 36% drop
50 something's 25% vacvinated, 36.6% drop
60 something's 49% vaccinated, 53% drop
70 something's 75% vaccinated, only 66.5% drop
80 something's 75% vacvinated, 75% drop

We are seeing a small herd immunity at the current vaccination levels. The most vulnerable only benefit as vaccinated. I assume as we approach Israeli vaccination levels herd immunity improves dramatically (lucky individuals are not exposed).

The main benefit of vaccines isn't to the individual, it is to their contacts. I posted above how mRNA reduce transmission 90%.

Lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:50 am

US calls for pause in J&J vaccine after clot reports:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-ca ... NewsSearch

What is calling for a pause? Either you continue or not.


All the six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition, the New York Times reported, citing officials.


So the question is, do adrenovacines have a clot issue (is Sputnik V safe?)? The risk is very low. Lower than the risk of letting this disease propagate. However, supply is low, so this is a minimal impact at this time. I will be sad if both J&J and AZ are pulled back as that means over a third of the world's population that would have been vaccinated in 2021 won't be as it takes months (in my opinion 3 or more) to switch a factory from the simpler to make adreno vaccine to something else). Heck, mRNA takes a specialized factory and while exciting, there just ins't enough vaccine without the adrenovacines. :cry2:

We all have that tin foil hat coworker who will be triggered over the push to mRNA.. I have several coworkers who I warmed up to J&J as the mRNA concerns them (I won't claim to understand why).

This is a problem due to the volumes these vaccines were to achieve.
I will note my sister, much more knowledgeable on vaccines had concerns on adreno virus side effects early, I shall have to ask in more detail as back then it was "1st virus available."

Lightsaber

What is the legal weight of a recommended pause? I assume malpractice insurance would be an issue, so administration of the J&J vaccine effectively must stop.
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cledaybuck
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
US calls for pause in J&J vaccine after clot reports:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-ca ... NewsSearch

What is calling for a pause? Either you continue or not.


All the six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition, the New York Times reported, citing officials.


So the question is, do adrenovacines have a clot issue (is Sputnik V safe?)? The risk is very low. Lower than the risk of letting this disease propagate. However, supply is low, so this is a minimal impact at this time. I will be sad if both J&J and AZ are pulled back as that means over a third of the world's population that would have been vaccinated in 2021 won't be as it takes months (in my opinion 3 or more) to switch a factory from the simpler to make adreno vaccine to something else). Heck, mRNA takes a specialized factory and while exciting, there just ins't enough vaccine without the adrenovacines. :cry2:

We all have that tin foil hat coworker who will be triggered over the push to mRNA.. I have several coworkers who I warmed up to J&J as the mRNA concerns them (I won't claim to understand why).

This is a problem due to the volumes these vaccines were to achieve.
I will note my sister, much more knowledgeable on vaccines had concerns on adreno virus side effects early, I shall have to ask in more detail as back then it was "1st virus available."

Lightsaber

What is the legal weight of a recommended pause? I assume malpractice insurance would be an issue, so administration of the J&J vaccine effectively must stop.

From the article: "All six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48, and the symptoms occurred six to 13 days after vaccination."

I wonder how many were on birth control? Is it possible this vaccine may be recommended for men only or would that cause more problems than it solves?
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:50 pm

lightsaber wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Interesting notes out of Israel where roughly 55% are fully vaccinated.

The number of cases and percent positive are plummeting.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/serious-c ... -december/



This is why we all need to get vaccinated.

Here are hospitalizations in Ohio. Hospitalizations among the elderly(the most vaccinated group) have gone sharply downward.
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2 ... roups.html

The best part of that link is it had fraction vaccinated.

The under 20 dropped 36% without much vaccination other than probably their parents.

20 somethings 10% vaccinated, 13.5% drop in hospital cases
30 something's 14% vaccinated, 16% drop
40 something's 17% vaccinated, 36% drop
50 something's 25% vacvinated, 36.6% drop
60 something's 49% vaccinated, 53% drop
70 something's 75% vaccinated, only 66.5% drop
80 something's 75% vacvinated, 75% drop

We are seeing a small herd immunity at the current vaccination levels. The most vulnerable only benefit as vaccinated. I assume as we approach Israeli vaccination levels herd immunity improves dramatically (lucky individuals are not exposed).

The main benefit of vaccines isn't to the individual, it is to their contacts. I posted above how mRNA reduce transmission 90%.

Lightsaber



Some of the drop is the natural drop we have seen since January, but the older +60 numbers are showing much steeper drops than the others. It will be interesting to see this in another month.

The below article is linking the AZ and Johnson and Johnson issues.

The officials said the clots “appear to be extremely rare.” They said people who have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine who develop severe headache, abdominal pain, leg pain or shortness of breath within three weeks after vaccination should contact their doctor.

The rare blood clots, paired with low levels of platelets, were first detected in people in Europe who had received the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. European regulators said it was “plausible” that the clots were linked to that vaccination and have also been reviewing four similar clotting cases after vaccination with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which uses a similar technology.



Nearly 7 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine had been administered throughout the country as of Monday, according to CDC data. More than twice that amount, about 16 million doses, have been delivered to states and territories, and through federal channels, since the beginning of March.


So 6, and maybe more people have had severe reactions to the vaccine rollout. This seems to be...assuming there may be 10 times more , still a 1 in 100,000 chance.. I think the J & J is still safe, they just need to isolate some contributing factors to steer those that are susceptible away from it.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:26 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Here are hospitalizations in Ohio. Hospitalizations among the elderly(the most vaccinated group) have gone sharply downward.
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2 ... roups.html

The best part of that link is it had fraction vaccinated.

The under 20 dropped 36% without much vaccination other than probably their parents.

20 somethings 10% vaccinated, 13.5% drop in hospital cases
30 something's 14% vaccinated, 16% drop
40 something's 17% vaccinated, 36% drop
50 something's 25% vacvinated, 36.6% drop
60 something's 49% vaccinated, 53% drop
70 something's 75% vaccinated, only 66.5% drop
80 something's 75% vacvinated, 75% drop

We are seeing a small herd immunity at the current vaccination levels. The most vulnerable only benefit as vaccinated. I assume as we approach Israeli vaccination levels herd immunity improves dramatically (lucky individuals are not exposed).

The main benefit of vaccines isn't to the individual, it is to their contacts. I posted above how mRNA reduce transmission 90%.

Lightsaber



Some of the drop is the natural drop we have seen since January, but the older +60 numbers are showing much steeper drops than the others. It will be interesting to see this in another month.

The below article is linking the AZ and Johnson and Johnson issues.

The officials said the clots “appear to be extremely rare.” They said people who have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine who develop severe headache, abdominal pain, leg pain or shortness of breath within three weeks after vaccination should contact their doctor.

The rare blood clots, paired with low levels of platelets, were first detected in people in Europe who had received the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. European regulators said it was “plausible” that the clots were linked to that vaccination and have also been reviewing four similar clotting cases after vaccination with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which uses a similar technology.



Nearly 7 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine had been administered throughout the country as of Monday, according to CDC data. More than twice that amount, about 16 million doses, have been delivered to states and territories, and through federal channels, since the beginning of March.


So 6, and maybe more people have had severe reactions to the vaccine rollout. This seems to be...assuming there may be 10 times more , still a 1 in 100,000 chance.. I think the J & J is still safe, they just need to isolate some contributing factors to steer those that are susceptible away from it.

I agree with you. We are messing up risk management by several orders of magnitude.
They do need to look at AZ and J&J risk factors and say, "not for you."
I would bet, oh wait, I don't have to. Known risk factors are obvious:
https://www.healthline.com/health/coron ... od%20clots.
Stay active. A sedentary lifestyle can increase your blood clot risk, so make sure to get regular exercise. If you need to sit for a long time — like with working or traveling — try to take regular breaks so you can get up and move around.
Lose weight if you’re overweight. Shedding excess weight can help lower your risk for developing blood clots.
Don’t smoke. Smoking can damage the lining of your blood vessels and cause clots to form.
Know the side effects of medications. Some types of medications, including birth control pills, hormone replacement therapy, and certain cancer drugs, may increase your risk for blood clots. Work with your doctor to make sure these are properly managed to minimize the risk of blood clots.


So AZ and J&J might just be for not-overweight people, non-smokers, not on the pill, not for cancer and others.

Every doctor advised me to walk 7k steps on the day of a vaccine (some were friends). Coronavirus has known bad blood clot risks.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 041321.php

The findings may help to explain why some people who have recovered from COVID-19 exhibit symptoms of blood clotting complications after their initial recovery. In some cases, they are at increased risk of heart attack, stroke or organ failure when blood clots block major arteries to vital organs.

The team, comprising researchers from NTU, Agency for Science, Technology and Research's (A*STAR) Singapore Immunology Network (SIgN), and the National Centre of Infectious Diseases, Singapore (NCID), collected and analysed blood samples from 30 COVID-19 patients a month after they had recovered from the infection and were discharged from hospital. They found that all recovered COVID-19 patients had signs of blood vessel damage, possibly from a lingering immune response, which may trigger the formation of blood clots.


All Covid19 had blood vessel damage... Rhoo Rhoo.
That implies an agressive vaccination campaign is needed.

Lightsaber
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speedygonzales
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:30 pm

Norwegian researchers reported 'off the charts' levels on antibodies against 'platelet factor 4' among those experiencing blood clots post AZ vaccine.These antibodies have never previously been associated with vaccines. The AZ vaccine was the only thing common among those with blood clots. German researcher independently reached the same conclusion about German patients.
News article in Norwegian: https://www.aftenposten.no/norge/i/WOMn ... ntistoffer
Research paper: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... tured_home
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AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:48 pm

If find it really interesting that many not (yet?) willing to take the covid vaccine justify their choice by fear of "corners being cut" in the study and autorisation process and/or stuff being "hiden"...Yet reality shows us the opposite.
Not only are scientists learning more about vaccines than ever (we never have seen such a huge vaccination campaign) but also the process is happening in full public view (In my view certainly helped by EMA's early stands on the issue).

While some might regret this openness because it might make vaccine acceptation by the public a little harder, it is my view that in the long run, it will strengthen trust and result in more people willing to take vaccines.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:02 pm

Today I saw a Pfizer poster trying to promote novel coronavirus vaccines together with Pneumococcal vaccine
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:05 pm

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The best part of that link is it had fraction vaccinated.

The under 20 dropped 36% without much vaccination other than probably their parents.

20 somethings 10% vaccinated, 13.5% drop in hospital cases
30 something's 14% vaccinated, 16% drop
40 something's 17% vaccinated, 36% drop
50 something's 25% vacvinated, 36.6% drop
60 something's 49% vaccinated, 53% drop
70 something's 75% vaccinated, only 66.5% drop
80 something's 75% vacvinated, 75% drop

We are seeing a small herd immunity at the current vaccination levels. The most vulnerable only benefit as vaccinated. I assume as we approach Israeli vaccination levels herd immunity improves dramatically (lucky individuals are not exposed).

The main benefit of vaccines isn't to the individual, it is to their contacts. I posted above how mRNA reduce transmission 90%.

Lightsaber



Some of the drop is the natural drop we have seen since January, but the older +60 numbers are showing much steeper drops than the others. It will be interesting to see this in another month.

The below article is linking the AZ and Johnson and Johnson issues.

The officials said the clots “appear to be extremely rare.” They said people who have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine who develop severe headache, abdominal pain, leg pain or shortness of breath within three weeks after vaccination should contact their doctor.

The rare blood clots, paired with low levels of platelets, were first detected in people in Europe who had received the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. European regulators said it was “plausible” that the clots were linked to that vaccination and have also been reviewing four similar clotting cases after vaccination with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which uses a similar technology.



Nearly 7 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine had been administered throughout the country as of Monday, according to CDC data. More than twice that amount, about 16 million doses, have been delivered to states and territories, and through federal channels, since the beginning of March.


So 6, and maybe more people have had severe reactions to the vaccine rollout. This seems to be...assuming there may be 10 times more , still a 1 in 100,000 chance.. I think the J & J is still safe, they just need to isolate some contributing factors to steer those that are susceptible away from it.

I agree with you. We are messing up risk management by several orders of magnitude.
They do need to look at AZ and J&J risk factors and say, "not for you."
I would bet, oh wait, I don't have to. Known risk factors are obvious:
https://www.healthline.com/health/coron ... od%20clots.
Stay active. A sedentary lifestyle can increase your blood clot risk, so make sure to get regular exercise. If you need to sit for a long time — like with working or traveling — try to take regular breaks so you can get up and move around.
Lose weight if you’re overweight. Shedding excess weight can help lower your risk for developing blood clots.
Don’t smoke. Smoking can damage the lining of your blood vessels and cause clots to form.
Know the side effects of medications. Some types of medications, including birth control pills, hormone replacement therapy, and certain cancer drugs, may increase your risk for blood clots. Work with your doctor to make sure these are properly managed to minimize the risk of blood clots.


So AZ and J&J might just be for not-overweight people, non-smokers, not on the pill, not for cancer and others.

Every doctor advised me to walk 7k steps on the day of a vaccine (some were friends). Coronavirus has known bad blood clot risks.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 041321.php

The findings may help to explain why some people who have recovered from COVID-19 exhibit symptoms of blood clotting complications after their initial recovery. In some cases, they are at increased risk of heart attack, stroke or organ failure when blood clots block major arteries to vital organs.

The team, comprising researchers from NTU, Agency for Science, Technology and Research's (A*STAR) Singapore Immunology Network (SIgN), and the National Centre of Infectious Diseases, Singapore (NCID), collected and analysed blood samples from 30 COVID-19 patients a month after they had recovered from the infection and were discharged from hospital. They found that all recovered COVID-19 patients had signs of blood vessel damage, possibly from a lingering immune response, which may trigger the formation of blood clots.


All Covid19 had blood vessel damage... Rhoo Rhoo.
That implies an agressive vaccination campaign is needed.

Lightsaber

But then thing is, even when the risk of likr AZ vaccine are very low, would it be justifiable to recommend it to places with even lower rate of getting the virus, like Vietnam, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand?
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:07 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
If find it really interesting that many not (yet?) willing to take the covid vaccine justify their choice by fear of "corners being cut" in the study and autorisation process and/or stuff being "hiden"...Yet reality shows us the opposite.
Not only are scientists learning more about vaccines than ever (we never have seen such a huge vaccination campaign) but also the process is happening in full public view (In my view certainly helped by EMA's early stands on the issue).

While some might regret this openness because it might make vaccine acceptation by the public a little harder, it is my view that in the long run, it will strengthen trust and result in more people willing to take vaccines.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Information must remain public. That we can agree on. I posted information on Sputnik V not disclosed until the EMA demanded records. To my knowledge, the Chinese still refuse to make their vaccine testing records public.

The Western countries are doing emergency approvals which cuts certain testing. This is why, in my opinion making vaccines mandatory is tricky. The same with vaccine passports.

Now, I hope to go on a cruise this summer, but I will only buy on a boat with a require of 100% vaccination for every person who steps foot onboard. So it is what activity. I certainly think anything over a thousand people requires 100% vaccination (including kids, I'm looking at you Disney).

But the local pub? ehhh... That limits the right to assemble. I also think it is funny to 6 foot space then fill an aircraft...

So this is tough.
We know smokers have more risk (see my link above, this includes vapers until I see evidence to the contrary.
Overweight people (all of this is in link in post above).
Certain medicines (cancer, pill) need a discussion with the doctor.

In general, I have a theory that we have become so sedentary we have a huge clot problem. Perhaps select vaccines should be only for people who will walk 3 km before and after the vaccine and promise to walk 6km plus every day?


The risk analysis is a problem. 1 per million vs. my graphic above of 22 per million... Hmmm... With known steps to reduce risk... :scratchchin:

This could be why poorer countries fared better. Outside (UV believed to kill RNA of virus)
Thinner
Much more physically active...

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Now, I hope to go on a cruise this summer, but I will only buy on a boat with a require of 100% vaccination for every person who steps foot onboard. So it is what activity. I certainly think anything over a thousand people requires 100% vaccination (including kids, I'm looking at you Disney).

But the local pub? ehhh... That limits the right to assemble. I also think it is funny to 6 foot space then fill an aircraft...


I recently spoke with an office colleague who is also a council member in his small town. His opinion was, that in Switzerland there would be no vaccine obligation (for individuals and businesses). But as mesures will be relaxed, like last summer, buissnesses will have to present and implement concepts to limit the spread of covid. And the easiest (and cheapest) concept is simply to only allow vaccinated people. Hence no direct vaccine mandate from the state but a similar result.

I think similar process could happen all over the world.
I believe a "vaccine passort" is a given for EU and Switzerland.

Best regards and stay all safe,
Jonas
 
hbernal1
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:34 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Here are hospitalizations in Ohio. Hospitalizations among the elderly(the most vaccinated group) have gone sharply downward.
https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2 ... roups.html

The best part of that link is it had fraction vaccinated.

The under 20 dropped 36% without much vaccination other than probably their parents.

20 somethings 10% vaccinated, 13.5% drop in hospital cases
30 something's 14% vaccinated, 16% drop
40 something's 17% vaccinated, 36% drop
50 something's 25% vacvinated, 36.6% drop
60 something's 49% vaccinated, 53% drop
70 something's 75% vaccinated, only 66.5% drop
80 something's 75% vacvinated, 75% drop

We are seeing a small herd immunity at the current vaccination levels. The most vulnerable only benefit as vaccinated. I assume as we approach Israeli vaccination levels herd immunity improves dramatically (lucky individuals are not exposed).

The main benefit of vaccines isn't to the individual, it is to their contacts. I posted above how mRNA reduce transmission 90%.

Lightsaber



Some of the drop is the natural drop we have seen since January, but the older +60 numbers are showing much steeper drops than the others. It will be interesting to see this in another month.

The below article is linking the AZ and Johnson and Johnson issues.

The officials said the clots “appear to be extremely rare.” They said people who have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine who develop severe headache, abdominal pain, leg pain or shortness of breath within three weeks after vaccination should contact their doctor.

The rare blood clots, paired with low levels of platelets, were first detected in people in Europe who had received the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. European regulators said it was “plausible” that the clots were linked to that vaccination and have also been reviewing four similar clotting cases after vaccination with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which uses a similar technology.



Nearly 7 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine had been administered throughout the country as of Monday, according to CDC data. More than twice that amount, about 16 million doses, have been delivered to states and territories, and through federal channels, since the beginning of March.


So 6, and maybe more people have had severe reactions to the vaccine rollout. This seems to be...assuming there may be 10 times more , still a 1 in 100,000 chance.. I think the J & J is still safe, they just need to isolate some contributing factors to steer those that are susceptible away from it.

Not to mention the potential declines in uptake of J&J once the pause ends. Meanwhile, it emboldens anti-vaxxers who will spread more conspiracy theories and saying "See, I told you these vaccines were poison" or whatever pseudoscientific claims they're pushing these days. I'm hopeful that uptake of J&J remains high; it's a great vaccine (I was offered Pfizer but I would have gladly received J&J) and (as Lightsaber mentioned upthread) it has the potential to be massively scaled up to vaccinate the developing world.

I'm not aware if Moderna has released results from clinical trials of its vaccines on teenagers as Pfizer, but surely, Moderna will want to add 12-17 year olds to its own EUA if Pfizer can get 12-15 year olds added to the EUA.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:21 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Stay active. A sedentary lifestyle can increase your blood clot risk, so make sure to get regular exercise. If you need to sit for a long time — like with working or traveling — try to take regular breaks so you can get up and move around.
Lose weight if you’re overweight. Shedding excess weight can help lower your risk for developing blood clots.
Don’t smoke. Smoking can damage the lining of your blood vessels and cause clots to form.
Know the side effects of medications. Some types of medications, including birth control pills, hormone replacement therapy, and certain cancer drugs, may increase your risk for blood clots. Work with your doctor to make sure these are properly managed to minimize the risk of blood clots.


The process here is immune-mediated and generally affects young, otherwise healthy people with robust immune systems. As women have more robust immune systems than men, it's not surprising that they are getting hit harder. So this is not the typical DVT situation caused by venous stasis that would respond to increased activity.
-Doc Lightning-

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:41 pm

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Stay active. A sedentary lifestyle can increase your blood clot risk, so make sure to get regular exercise. If you need to sit for a long time — like with working or traveling — try to take regular breaks so you can get up and move around.
Lose weight if you’re overweight. Shedding excess weight can help lower your risk for developing blood clots.
Don’t smoke. Smoking can damage the lining of your blood vessels and cause clots to form.
Know the side effects of medications. Some types of medications, including birth control pills, hormone replacement therapy, and certain cancer drugs, may increase your risk for blood clots. Work with your doctor to make sure these are properly managed to minimize the risk of blood clots.


The process here is immune-mediated and generally affects young, otherwise healthy people with robust immune systems. As women have more robust immune systems than men, it's not surprising that they are getting hit harder. So this is not the typical DVT situation caused by venous stasis that would respond to increased activity.

Please educate me. My understanding is exercise helps break up clots or prevent small clots from being the nucleus for growing larger clots.

During my coronavirus I had the privilege of consulting multiple doctors. All noted that sedentary people were having far worse outcomes than those who did mild exercise.

Even if exercise just minimized clot sizes, that should help. I can understand women would produce more clots, but the goal would be to minimize the harm.

Unfortunately, this will get far too interesting as this impacts two high volume vaccines and switching vaccines will, in my estimation, mean a multi-month loss of production and more stress on limited supply chains for any new ingredient that the old vaccine didn't utilize. This is a supply chain nightmare as it is already to late to switch gears for August production... :duck: (in my opinion)

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:45 pm

First case of clot from AZ in Canada:
https://news.yahoo.com/covid19-astrazen ... 55905.html

J&J did safety stand down, AZ should, in my opinion, also. Stop the witch hunt and have a rational discussion.
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ThePointblank
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:45 pm

I think the issue regarding the issues of blood clotting with both the AstraZeneca and J&J vaccines isn't the likelihood of a blood clot, but more of how you the treat it.

Per this article, this is the leading hypothesis on what's causing the rare instances of blood clots:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/04 ... lood-clots

This is not the first vaccine to create extremely rare clotting issues. They've also been seen following use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. The problem appears to be caused by the harmless virus (an adenovirus) that carries a single gene from SARS-CoV-2 in order to elicit an immune response.

The leading hypothesis to explain the phenomenon is that, in very rare cases, the adenovirus triggers an immune response to factors found on the surface of platelets, which are an essential part of the clotting process. This activates platelets, causing clots, and at the same time reduces the total platelet count.

These seemingly contradictory changes make treating the issue through the normal approach to excessive clotting dangerous. Typically, the appearance of clots would call for using a treatment that would reduce the probability of clots forming. But due to the low platelet counts in these individuals, those treatments can make it much less likely that clots form when they're needed.

It's this difference between apparent patient needs and appropriate treatment that has caused the CDC and FDA to call for a pause in the use of the J&J vaccine.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:29 pm

lightsaber wrote:
First case of clot from AZ in Canada:
https://news.yahoo.com/covid19-astrazen ... 55905.html

J&J did safety stand down, AZ should, in my opinion, also. Stop the witch hunt and have a rational discussion.


I actually think that's a contradiction in terms. The rational thing to do (for regulators in relation to both AZ and J&J) would be to assess the risk profile by age and gender. Assess the benefits of vaccination by the same criteria and restrict usage accordingly.

I know this is going to sound nationalistic, and I always feel the need to accompany this by saying how appalling the UK has handled things from a public policy perspective. But Professor Van Tam's presentation on April 7th was an absolute model in how this should be communicated. The slides have been linked in this thread previously, but he basically showed the risk/benefit trade off in the UK with low, medium and high infection rates. It was well received by the public (well, the elements that pay any attention).

So for the UK, offering an alternative to AZ to under 30's was the rational data driven choice, for now. It'll be different for different countries depending on their infection rate (current and anticipated during the interval until an alternative is available).

So a country (Taiwan?) that has low levels of infection, has little public pressure to make changes, and alternative vaccines are on their way, AZ and J&J probably don't make sense. For countries like Brazil and Poland- they should take every dose they can get and put it into any arm that's willing. The Portuguese need to be honest with themselves - are they going to open up their tourist economy this summer? If so, then even though they have the virus under some measure of control currently, they may want to consider that they will likely have another wave before the cavalry arrives.

The point I'm making is that a rational response is ultimately driven by statistics. National regulators should be able to assess their situation, report back quickly, and keep it under review. But I'm seeing very little of rational decision making in many regulators, particularly those in Western Europe. Is it just me that finds it remarkable that restrictions were put on AZ even prior to the EMA beginning it's investigation, whereas for Janssen, nothing happens even after the EMA begin, and the manufacturer pre-empts them! The contrast couldn't be more stark. The worry is, they've played themselves. Politically, AZ were fair game, but having rubbished them they've rubbished Janssen by association.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:16 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Please educate me. My understanding is exercise helps break up clots or prevent small clots from being the nucleus for growing larger clots.


So I'm speaking specifically about the issues with the AdV vaccines. There seems to be an immune response that targets platelets themselves. This causes almost all of the platelets in the body to activate and clump together. The coagulation system is a complicated Rube Goldberg system of positive and negative regulation. So the loss of platelets can paradoxically increase the risk of clotting.

So while it is generally true that being sedentary increases the risk for clotting by causing the blood to become static in veins, in the specific case of the immune thrombocytopenia that was observed with the AZ and now possibly the J&J product, that has nothing to do with it and it is the immune attack on platelets that causes the clotting (and bleeding) issues. The treatment is to suppress the immune response with steroids and pooled immune globulin and the platelet count will usually rebound quickly and order will be restored.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:42 pm

BaconButty wrote:
So a country (Taiwan?) that has low levels of infection, has little public pressure to make changes, and alternative vaccines are on their way, AZ and J&J probably don't make sense. For countries like Brazil and Poland- they should take every dose they can get and put it into any arm that's willing. The Portuguese need to be honest with themselves - are they going to open up their tourist economy this summer? If so, then even though they have the virus under some measure of control currently, they may want to consider that they will likely have another wave before the cavalry arrives.

By now, Taiwan could only order 20 Million dose of vaccines for their 23 Million population, including 5 Million via COVAX, 10 million from AstraZeneca and another 5 million from Moderna, and most of those vaccine supplies from COVAX will also be AstraZeneca. So their choice is limited. Their plan includes another 5 million from Pfizer and another 2×10 million from two domestic vaccine makers, but they still couldn't enter any agreement with Pfizer/Biontech due to China's situation, and their domestic vaccines are still just in the Phase 2 trial
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NIKV69
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:12 am

Getting my 2nd dose of Moderna in two days. Nothing from 1st dose hopefully mild reaction to second one.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:19 am

BaconButty wrote:
The point I'm making is that a rational response is ultimately driven by statistics. National regulators should be able to assess their situation, report back quickly, and keep it under review. But I'm seeing very little of rational decision making in many regulators, particularly those in Western Europe. Is it just me that finds it remarkable that restrictions were put on AZ even prior to the EMA beginning it's investigation, whereas for Janssen, nothing happens even after the EMA begin, and the manufacturer pre-empts them! The contrast couldn't be more stark. The worry is, they've played themselves. Politically, AZ were fair game, but having rubbished them they've rubbished Janssen by association.

It must be driven by statistics. There needs to be clear communication. Because of the on/off again of the EU, there needs to be a pause.

Yes, during a pandemic delaying a vaccine is the opposite of public health interest. But so is all the churn in the politics and the media. There needs to be a stand down to wake up the politicians to how damaging their words are in reducing vaccine demand. There needs to be data on the clots vs. background data.

The risk of blood clots with Covid19 is far higher. I rather like this discussion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gYQSFWxJwA

The rubbishing for politics needs to stop. The way you get everyone serious is a stand down. The AZ debacle showed that this rodeo needs to get onto one page. No more "quasi-ineffective."

This is an aviation blog. The only way we open back up aviation is vaccines. We'll have break through infections due to variants. We need as many people as possible vaccinated. Israel and the UK have shown high rates of vaccinations tame this virus. The question is how many other nations will join?

It will be interesting to see if we can vaccinate enough to stay ahead of the wave we are obviously in, or will the cases take off? UK and Israel seem fairly well off. USA... Not enough. If the new variants have an Ro =4, then 36% of people having vaccine is nice, but not enough. That is 64% of people who will have little resistance to the next variant.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:22 am

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Please educate me. My understanding is exercise helps break up clots or prevent small clots from being the nucleus for growing larger clots.


So I'm speaking specifically about the issues with the AdV vaccines. There seems to be an immune response that targets platelets themselves. This causes almost all of the platelets in the body to activate and clump together. The coagulation system is a complicated Rube Goldberg system of positive and negative regulation. So the loss of platelets can paradoxically increase the risk of clotting.

So while it is generally true that being sedentary increases the risk for clotting by causing the blood to become static in veins, in the specific case of the immune thrombocytopenia that was observed with the AZ and now possibly the J&J product, that has nothing to do with it and it is the immune attack on platelets that causes the clotting (and bleeding) issues. The treatment is to suppress the immune response with steroids and pooled immune globulin and the platelet count will usually rebound quickly and order will be restored.

That was educational, thank you.

I'll fully admit my understanding is more physics (why do particulates form in air pollution) than biomedical, so this was enlightening.

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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:39 am

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Please educate me. My understanding is exercise helps break up clots or prevent small clots from being the nucleus for growing larger clots.


So I'm speaking specifically about the issues with the AdV vaccines. There seems to be an immune response that targets platelets themselves. This causes almost all of the platelets in the body to activate and clump together. The coagulation system is a complicated Rube Goldberg system of positive and negative regulation. So the loss of platelets can paradoxically increase the risk of clotting.


What I'm not clear on is on the risk for the second dose. My mother has had the first dose and is fine (well she had flu like symptoms for 24h). Is there still a risk for the 2nd dose ?

French authorities have decided to switch 2nd doses to mrna vaccines for people younger than 55, but on what basis I don't know, it seems that it's just "nobody under 55 gets AZ". My mother being over 55. Do we know if the clotting issues have appeared for some people after the 2nd dose ?
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:41 am

BaconButty wrote:
The point I'm making is that a rational response is ultimately driven by statistics. National regulators should be able to assess their situation, report back quickly, and keep it under review. But I'm seeing very little of rational decision making in many regulators, particularly those in Western Europe. Is it just me that finds it remarkable that restrictions were put on AZ even prior to the EMA beginning it's investigation, whereas for Janssen, nothing happens even after the EMA begin, and the manufacturer pre-empts them! The contrast couldn't be more stark. The worry is, they've played themselves. Politically, AZ were fair game, but having rubbished them they've rubbished Janssen by association.


Janssen using the same technique as AZ, people were expecting the same issues even before they happened.

Another one is Sputnik, and here it seems data has been suppressed by Russia...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:21 pm

Report say Hong Kong government want restaurants segregate vaccinated finers and unvaccinated diners into different dining zones
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T4thH
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:58 pm

Aesma wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
The point I'm making is that a rational response is ultimately driven by statistics. National regulators should be able to assess their situation, report back quickly, and keep it under review. But I'm seeing very little of rational decision making in many regulators, particularly those in Western Europe. Is it just me that finds it remarkable that restrictions were put on AZ even prior to the EMA beginning it's investigation, whereas for Janssen, nothing happens even after the EMA begin, and the manufacturer pre-empts them! The contrast couldn't be more stark. The worry is, they've played themselves. Politically, AZ were fair game, but having rubbished them they've rubbished Janssen by association.


Janssen using the same technique as AZ, people were expecting the same issues even before they happened.

Another one is Sputnik, and here it seems data has been suppressed by Russia...

Yes, regarding Janssen, I have seen some science lecture from an university hospital in eastern part of Germany (Jena, Leipzig or Dresden) last week, which seems to have identified (most likely) the reason. It seems to be the Adenovisrus vector, which has been used.
Sorry, I have just searched German News, I can not find the source any more.

Regarding Sputnik: does it really exist outside of the trial? What Russia has delivered globally is not Sputnik, this has been already shown. (but it seems also not to be of the others in clinical trials). So what Russia is delivering to the world?
Regarding the in science papers published clinical trial data; phase I data are faked, this is clear.
Phase II: homologous numbers in the trial data....clear sign, these data are fabricated in part.
Phase III, also these data are not correct also here signs for fabrication of the data have been identified. It was a little more difficult to show, but yes, it seems so.
Here one of many sources, this one is in English.
https://www.dw.com/en/sputnik-v-makers-want-ema-apology-over-russian-roulette-comment/a-56815798

There is now an ongoing inspection by a European EMA team in Russia (for fabrication of the vaccine).
https://www.dw.com/en/eu-inspectors-to-take-a-close-look-at-russias-sputnik-v/a-57157474

I have seen one news, there must be a second independent inspection ongoing, that inspectors from the EMA are now visiting also some trial sites in Russia (so inspection according ICH-GCP (good clinical practice) and not according GMP (good manufacturing practice). So this one is independent of the other one. This second one seems to have been missed by the news services, they are not aware, that there are two on-going (and mixed them to one). And EMA is not forced to announce it.
So the sentence was something like "inspectors have spoken some physicians at several trial sites in Russia during the visit". And than again they were writing about the manufacturing e.g..
Sorry, I have not saved the link and I do not know how to identify this single source again. It was perhaps even a statement of the Russian government?????

Another one is Sinopharm. The published results are not according the results seen at trial site outside of China.
Sinopharm seems in best case just to fulfill the international expected (according WHO) minimum of 50%.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:29 pm

c933103 wrote:
Report say Hong Kong government want restaurants segregate vaccinated finers and unvaccinated diners into different dining zones

That seems like emotionally-motivated segregation. Isn’t the point of vaccination to get to where you have a high enough percentage vaccinated that you achieve herd immunity? Segregation like this creates two societies; one of 100% vaccination and the other of 0%. What’s the point in that?

Also… is there a link for this report?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:37 pm

T4thH wrote:
Another one is Sinopharm. The published results are not according the results seen at trial site outside of China.
Sinopharm seems in best case just to fulfill the international expected (according WHO) minimum of 50%.

I am more concerned for SinoVac.
In particular in Chili

Cases climb:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/chile/

One dose excellent, but I posted earlier a video that one dose gas single digit effecacy:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... vaccinated

Chile now has 25% fully vaccinated. This should reduce cases soon:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/shar ... ime=latest

This begs for data on reducing transmission. IMHO the most important benefit of a vaccine. With Ro assumed as 4, 50% effectiveness and let us assume 50% reduction in transmission, that means a constant viral transmission rate in a 100% vaccinated society... Until Vaccine+natural immunity kicks in.

Sigh... mRNA vaccines are great. Per my prior links, on track to vacvinate 1.25 billion with Pfizer, 350 million with Moderna or 1.6 billion total or 20% of the global population. Errr... We really need other vaccines.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Another one is Sinopharm. The published results are not according the results seen at trial site outside of China.
Sinopharm seems in best case just to fulfill the international expected (according WHO) minimum of 50%.

I am more concerned for SinoVac.
In particular in Chili

Cases climb:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/chile/

One dose excellent, but I posted earlier a video that one dose gas single digit effecacy:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... vaccinated

Chile now has 25% fully vaccinated. This should reduce cases soon:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/shar ... ime=latest

This begs for data on reducing transmission. IMHO the most important benefit of a vaccine. With Ro assumed as 4, 50% effectiveness and let us assume 50% reduction in transmission, that means a constant viral transmission rate in a 100% vaccinated society... Until Vaccine+natural immunity kicks in.

Sigh... mRNA vaccines are great. Per my prior links, on track to vacvinate 1.25 billion with Pfizer, 350 million with Moderna or 1.6 billion total or 20% of the global population. Errr... We really need other vaccines.

Lightsaber

Not that I don’t think the mRNA vaccines are great, but do remember that their studies were conducted under different circumstances than those for AZ and J&J. It’s impossible to make accurate comparisons between vaccines based on their efficacy studies, if they were not all tested in the same study, same time, same place. If new efficacy studies were conducted on the mRNA vaccines now, especially in places where new variants are dominant, it is quite possible that their statistics might not appear so rosy.

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