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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:56 pm

aerolimani wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Another one is Sinopharm. The published results are not according the results seen at trial site outside of China.
Sinopharm seems in best case just to fulfill the international expected (according WHO) minimum of 50%.

I am more concerned for SinoVac.
In particular in Chili

Cases climb:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/chile/

One dose excellent, but I posted earlier a video that one dose gas single digit effecacy:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... vaccinated

Chile now has 25% fully vaccinated. This should reduce cases soon:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/shar ... ime=latest

This begs for data on reducing transmission. IMHO the most important benefit of a vaccine. With Ro assumed as 4, 50% effectiveness and let us assume 50% reduction in transmission, that means a constant viral transmission rate in a 100% vaccinated society... Until Vaccine+natural immunity kicks in.

Sigh... mRNA vaccines are great. Per my prior links, on track to vacvinate 1.25 billion with Pfizer, 350 million with Moderna or 1.6 billion total or 20% of the global population. Errr... We really need other vaccines.

Lightsaber

Not that I don’t think the mRNA vaccines are great, but do remember that their studies were conducted under different circumstances than those for AZ and J&J. It’s impossible to make accurate comparisons between vaccines based on their efficacy studies, if they were not all tested in the same study, same time, same place. If new efficacy studies were conducted on the mRNA vaccines now, especially in places where new variants are dominant, it is quite possible that their statistics might not appear so rosy.

Forget the testing. mRNA proved themselves effective, in particular in Israel.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

AstraZenica has proven itself in the UK.

If you look at Chile, a really high 1st dose hasn't done much with SinoVac. With 25% 2nd dose, I hope the case rate drops.

J&J has been proven to reduce transmission


Pfizer and Moderna proven to reduce transmission 90%
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/eu ... uxbndlbing

Single dose of AstraZenica good for 67% reduction in transmission:
https://www.self.com/story/astrazeneca- ... ansmission

J&J: 74% reduction in asymptomatic cases (assumed same reduction in transmission):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

So while there studies were under different circumstances, the real world is showing:
1. mRNA great as protecting people and even more important, stopping transmission.
2. J&J also really good at stopping transmission
3. AZ has been great at stopping transmission with one dose, I look forward to 2-dose data.

In my opinion, we can tell that vaccines are slowing transmission in Israel, the UK, and we can debate the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases

Vaccines take 2+ weeks to do their magic and considering how open the US is, I will argue we are benefitting from vaccines. Although 36% (1st dose) obviously isn't enough either.

So I really want to see more data on Sputnik V, SinoVac, Sinopharm, and Covaxin.

The value of vaccines are, in order:
1. Stopping spread
2. Keeping people out if the hospital (minimize resources).
3. Minimize impact to individual.

So I'm all for vaccines. The high vaccination rate in Chile just doesn't go hand in hand with the case rate.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... vaccinated

Chile and the UAE have good vaccination rates but without the case rate fall off of the UK and Israel. :scratchchin:

I'm currently trying to persuade multiple co-workers to get vaccinated. Any UK, EU, or FDA (US) approved is good enough in my book.

For some, I need more data to become an advocate.

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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:56 pm

Aesma wrote:

What I'm not clear on is on the risk for the second dose. My mother has had the first dose and is fine (well she had flu like symptoms for 24h). Is there still a risk for the 2nd dose ?

French authorities have decided to switch 2nd doses to mrna vaccines for people younger than 55, but on what basis I don't know, it seems that it's just "nobody under 55 gets AZ". My mother being over 55. Do we know if the clotting issues have appeared for some people after the 2nd dose ?


I seem to recall you and I are about the same age (early 40s). So your mother would be in her 60s and thus would have low risk. This seems to be a clotting issue that effects almost exclusively younger women (under 50).

As for first vs. second dose, I do not know and right now, I'm not even sure where to look.

T4thH wrote:
Yes, regarding Janssen, I have seen some science lecture from an university hospital in eastern part of Germany (Jena, Leipzig or Dresden) last week, which seems to have identified (most likely) the reason. It seems to be the Adenovisrus vector, which has been used.


1) We really don't know that the Janssen product is actually responsible for these six cases. 2) If it is, then the AdV vector is an obvious culprit, but it isn't certain. These are two quite different AdVs (one isn't even from humans). I'll also point out that the Janssen AdV26 vector was used in their Ebola vaccine and it hasn't been found to cause this issue, but I'm not sure if 1 million people have received that vaccine.
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hbernal1
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:01 pm

Denmark will no longer be using the AstraZeneca vaccine:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... dcaster-dr
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I am more concerned for SinoVac.
In particular in Chili

Cases climb:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/chile/

One dose excellent, but I posted earlier a video that one dose gas single digit effecacy:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... vaccinated

Chile now has 25% fully vaccinated. This should reduce cases soon:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/shar ... ime=latest

This begs for data on reducing transmission. IMHO the most important benefit of a vaccine. With Ro assumed as 4, 50% effectiveness and let us assume 50% reduction in transmission, that means a constant viral transmission rate in a 100% vaccinated society... Until Vaccine+natural immunity kicks in.

Sigh... mRNA vaccines are great. Per my prior links, on track to vacvinate 1.25 billion with Pfizer, 350 million with Moderna or 1.6 billion total or 20% of the global population. Errr... We really need other vaccines.

Lightsaber

Not that I don’t think the mRNA vaccines are great, but do remember that their studies were conducted under different circumstances than those for AZ and J&J. It’s impossible to make accurate comparisons between vaccines based on their efficacy studies, if they were not all tested in the same study, same time, same place. If new efficacy studies were conducted on the mRNA vaccines now, especially in places where new variants are dominant, it is quite possible that their statistics might not appear so rosy.

Forget the testing. mRNA proved themselves effective, in particular in Israel.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

AstraZenica has proven itself in the UK.

If you look at Chile, a really high 1st dose hasn't done much with SinoVac. With 25% 2nd dose, I hope the case rate drops.

J&J has been proven to reduce transmission


Pfizer and Moderna proven to reduce transmission 90%
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/eu ... uxbndlbing

Single dose of AstraZenica good for 67% reduction in transmission:
https://www.self.com/story/astrazeneca- ... ansmission

J&J: 74% reduction in asymptomatic cases (assumed same reduction in transmission):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

So while there studies were under different circumstances, the real world is showing:
1. mRNA great as protecting people and even more important, stopping transmission.
2. J&J also really good at stopping transmission
3. AZ has been great at stopping transmission with one dose, I look forward to 2-dose data.

In my opinion, we can tell that vaccines are slowing transmission in Israel, the UK, and we can debate the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases

Vaccines take 2+ weeks to do their magic and considering how open the US is, I will argue we are benefitting from vaccines. Although 36% (1st dose) obviously isn't enough either.

So I really want to see more data on Sputnik V, SinoVac, Sinopharm, and Covaxin.

The value of vaccines are, in order:
1. Stopping spread
2. Keeping people out if the hospital (minimize resources).
3. Minimize impact to individual.

So I'm all for vaccines. The high vaccination rate in Chile just doesn't go hand in hand with the case rate.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... vaccinated

Chile and the UAE have good vaccination rates but without the case rate fall off of the UK and Israel. :scratchchin:

I'm currently trying to persuade multiple co-workers to get vaccinated. Any UK, EU, or FDA (US) approved is good enough in my book.

For some, I need more data to become an advocate.

Lightsaber

It is difficult to say what other factors are at play, as regards the real world data; differing social cultures and differing governmental advisements/regulations.

I guess I get a little concerned when I hear enthusiastic praise for the mRNA vaccines. Touting the superiority of one product has a tendency to make the other product look like crap, in the eyes of many people. Something that is only marginally inferior can start to be perceived as absolutely undesirable. In terms of counteracting vaccine hesitancy, this is not helpful.

As you have pointed out, the quantity of mRNA vaccines available to the world is relatively small. Not to mention, the enormous challenges transporting and storing them properly. We need all the vaccines we can get, and we need to reduce vaccine hesitancy.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:16 pm

So if a nation like Denmark stops using AZ, are they going to sell their stock on hand, give up their order positions, or just sit on everything till additional data comes in?
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:36 pm

par13del wrote:
So if a nation like Denmark stops using AZ, are they going to sell their stock on hand, give up their order positions, or just sit on everything till additional data comes in?

The article indicates that Denmark is eliminating AZ from their vaccination program permanently.

Perhaps they will redistribute whatever they haves as part of the Covax program. As to any pending orders, it is possible they could be redistributed as well, through the Covax program.

It is unfortunate they are choosing to forego a vaccine which is known to be functional, instead of just changing how they distribute it. It is yet another move which undermines public confidence in vaccination, generally speaking.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:40 pm

aerolimani wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Report say Hong Kong government want restaurants segregate vaccinated finers and unvaccinated diners into different dining zones

That seems like emotionally-motivated segregation. Isn’t the point of vaccination to get to where you have a high enough percentage vaccinated that you achieve herd immunity? Segregation like this creates two societies; one of 100% vaccination and the other of 0%. What’s the point in that?

Also… is there a link for this report?

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... o-normalcy
https://hongkongfp.com/2021/04/12/covid ... ge-uptake/
These reports are more comprehensive than the one I glimpsed on the paper. The Hong Kong government call their measures "vaccine bubble".
Under the plan, if all the staffs of a restaurant are vaccinated, and have a "clean zone" for vaccinated customers, and if every customers agree to use the government tracking app instead of alternative methods like writing down their personal contact information, then the restaurant can be allowed to have up to 12 diners per table, open until 2am at night, and allow a gathering of up to 100 at the same time.
Otherwise, the current restriction continues to apply, which is up to 4 diners per table, open until 10pm at night, and gathering size up to 20 people at the same time.
The objective of such policy is said to encourage citizens receiving vaccines.
Similar measures will also be applied to reopening of bars that are now closed, nursery home visit, and such
The government also plan to stop providing free coronavirus test in order to encourage citizens taking the vaccine
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:44 am

Now, an admitadly hyperbolic link, but this is why we need vaccines as India is starting to hit capacity fast:
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-e ... verflowing

Aesma wrote:
lightsaber : the UK has been in lockdown for 3 months, that's how the cases dropped.

No doubt lockdown is a primary factor. But a vaccine will lower the spread to. With the opening up of pub gardens and such, we shall find out how much the vaccine helps.
There is now a barrier to transmission (vaccination). Ro will be reduced from the natural Ro.
In my opinion, the lockdown gave time to get the most vulnerable vaccinated.

Link on pub gardens opening
https://www.the-sun.com/news/2702838/br ... ns-philip/

Link on vulnerable in UK vaccinated (defined as age 50+ and those with certain medical vulnerabilities):

Link noting the PM Johnson advocates the lockdown in reducing cases:
https://news.yahoo.com/britain-offers-o ... 57832.html
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned on Tuesday that the rapid drop in COVID-19 deaths was largely down to a three-month lockdown, not the vaccination programme, and that cases would rise once again as restrictions ease.

So no disagreement that the lockdown is the prime factor. The difference will be seen in the rebound.
We know that vaccines slow transmission. I posted above links on how even 1 dose of AZ reduced transmission 65%.

So while not enough are vaccinated in the UK to stop the spread:
1. Active cases are down to 256,275 as I type this, down from a peak of over 2 million. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Compare to similar population France that currently has ... ok, I cannot, it looks like France has a different criteria as I don't want to believe they have 4.5 million active cases currently: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/
2. 47% of the population of the UK has at least one Jab: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... vaccinated
3. Some fraction just suffered through the B.1.1.7 and that is still the variant spreading (mostly) around Europe.

The UK and Israel have followed very similar curves. Now Israel opened up a bit too early and we saw a small trend up afterwards. So the question is, can the UK vaccinate fast enough to stay ahead of the curve? With the above 3.2 million doses per week (hattip to BaconButty for providing good numbers about 2 days ago) and pending Novavax, we will see. I personally think it will rise a bit, but slowed by having a decent portion of the population recently vaccinated and new variants not yet present in a high fraction. How slowed will really depend on when more vaccine comes in.

But vaccines would certainly have helped. How much we can debate. Both lockdowns and vaccines lower Ro.
On the upswing, the vaccines will reduce Ro.

aerolimani wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Not that I don’t think the mRNA vaccines are great, but do remember that their studies were conducted under different circumstances than those for AZ and J&J. It’s impossible to make accurate comparisons between vaccines based on their efficacy studies, if they were not all tested in the same study, same time, same place. If new efficacy studies were conducted on the mRNA vaccines now, especially in places where new variants are dominant, it is quite possible that their statistics might not appear so rosy.

Forget the testing. mRNA proved themselves effective, in particular in Israel.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

AstraZenica has proven itself in the UK.

If you look at Chile, a really high 1st dose hasn't done much with SinoVac. With 25% 2nd dose, I hope the case rate drops.

J&J has been proven to reduce transmission


Pfizer and Moderna proven to reduce transmission 90%
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/eu ... uxbndlbing

Single dose of AstraZenica good for 67% reduction in transmission:
https://www.self.com/story/astrazeneca- ... ansmission

J&J: 74% reduction in asymptomatic cases (assumed same reduction in transmission):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

So while there studies were under different circumstances, the real world is showing:
1. mRNA great as protecting people and even more important, stopping transmission.
2. J&J also really good at stopping transmission
3. AZ has been great at stopping transmission with one dose, I look forward to 2-dose data.

In my opinion, we can tell that vaccines are slowing transmission in Israel, the UK, and we can debate the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases

Vaccines take 2+ weeks to do their magic and considering how open the US is, I will argue we are benefitting from vaccines. Although 36% (1st dose) obviously isn't enough either.

So I really want to see more data on Sputnik V, SinoVac, Sinopharm, and Covaxin.

The value of vaccines are, in order:
1. Stopping spread
2. Keeping people out if the hospital (minimize resources).
3. Minimize impact to individual.

So I'm all for vaccines. The high vaccination rate in Chile just doesn't go hand in hand with the case rate.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... vaccinated

Chile and the UAE have good vaccination rates but without the case rate fall off of the UK and Israel. :scratchchin:

I'm currently trying to persuade multiple co-workers to get vaccinated. Any UK, EU, or FDA (US) approved is good enough in my book.

For some, I need more data to become an advocate.

Lightsaber

It is difficult to say what other factors are at play, as regards the real world data; differing social cultures and differing governmental advisements/regulations.

I guess I get a little concerned when I hear enthusiastic praise for the mRNA vaccines. Touting the superiority of one product has a tendency to make the other product look like crap, in the eyes of many people. Something that is only marginally inferior can start to be perceived as absolutely undesirable. In terms of counteracting vaccine hesitancy, this is not helpful.

As you have pointed out, the quantity of mRNA vaccines available to the world is relatively small. Not to mention, the enormous challenges transporting and storing them properly. We need all the vaccines we can get, and we need to reduce vaccine hesitancy.

There is something today's society that praising one thing means everything else is "crap." That is not how I am.
However, mRNA has proven very effective.

I 100% agree with you we need to counter vaccine hesitancy. I'm very impressed with AZ's ability to slow transmission.

You are right to point out mRNA storage/transportation issues. mRNA isn't the right vaccine for agricultural California much less less resource rich areas.
Like it or not, cost is an issue when billions of doses are involved. AZ has delivered over 200 million low cost doses globally:
https://news.yahoo.com/defence-astrazen ... 36384.html

The data demonstrates this. Should a million 60-year-olds catch coronavirus, around 20,000 would die. This drops to 1,000 for a million 40-year-olds, or a few hundred for people in their 30s. Of a million people to be vaccinated with the vaccine, one individual will die. These may well vary with age and gender, but the risk remains infinitesimal nonetheless.


What I note is SinoVac just doesn't seem to be slowing the virus as much as it should be. I get that mRNA will not be common enough in 2021.
But there is a huge shortage of doses. At this time, I'm not seeing SinoVac working very well.
J&J and AZ? I'm gung ho for.


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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:13 am

Scary thought.
USA at 3.3 million doses per day (average, it has broken 4 million, we're talking the average): https://wpta21.com/2021/04/14/us-now-ad ... s-per-day/
India at 3 million doses perday: https://wpta21.com/2021/04/14/us-now-ad ... s-per-day/

I consider the US rate too slow to avoid the next wave as just under 1% of the population per day and 2 doses is a long time to herd immunity.
India has 1.3 billion people, the USA 0.330 billion. Errr.... No wonder India is redirecting exports of vaccine, even looking to import vaccine:
https://www.metro.us/india-big-vaccine-exporter/

Lightsaber

Related:
SII target is to produce 100 million doses of vaccine per month, currently producing 60 to 65 million doses per month:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00996-y

Bharat can reach 12.5 million doses per month (article doesn't say actual)

There are other producers in India, but I did not find their production rates.
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marcelh
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:17 pm

aerolimani wrote:
par13del wrote:
So if a nation like Denmark stops using AZ, are they going to sell their stock on hand, give up their order positions, or just sit on everything till additional data comes in?

The article indicates that Denmark is eliminating AZ from their vaccination program permanently.

Perhaps they will redistribute whatever they haves as part of the Covax program. As to any pending orders, it is possible they could be redistributed as well, through the Covax program.

It is unfortunate they are choosing to forego a vaccine which is known to be functional, instead of just changing how they distribute it. It is yet another move which undermines public confidence in vaccination, generally speaking.


IMO those will be redistributed within the EU first. In other member states AZ vaccination hasn't stopped and a lot of people will still need a second dose.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:21 pm

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 210415.htm
Macau claim they have contacted AstraZeneca, to suspend all planned vaccine delivery in Q3 and Q4, and obtained AstraZeneca agreement, but AstraZeneca claim they haven't received any request from governmebt of Macau on this matter and will continue work on vaccine supply and shipment
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:17 pm

Please take the discussion on US politics and hesitancy to the appropriate thread:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1458787
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airtechy
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:10 am

This is the good news I was waiting for. Proof that the vaccines are working. :)

"On Thursday morning, the CDC said it had reports of approximately 5,800 so-called breakthrough infections, out of the nearly 77 million individuals in the United States who have been fully vaccinated.

Such cases are not unexpected; no vaccine is 100 percent effective against infection with the coronavirus. Even so, they are rare, and experts tell NBC News the data are largely reassuring.
"This is a really good scenario, even with almost 6,000 breakthrough infections," said Tara Smith, a professor of epidemiology at the Kent State University College of Public Health in Ohio. "Most of those have been mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic. That's exactly what we were hoping for."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-about-5-800-breakthrough-infections-reported-fully-vaccinated-people-n1264186
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:01 am

I find it interesting that Israel's vaccination rate has fallen dramatically since early March. It's down to only a trickle now.

Have they reached the barrier of vaccine hesitancy?

Worryingly, the UK's curve is starting to taper off earlier than the Israeli one.
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KFTG
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:55 am

Francoflier wrote:
I find it interesting that Israel's vaccination rate has fallen dramatically since early March. It's down to only a trickle now.

Have they reached the barrier of vaccine hesitancy?

Worryingly, the UK's curve is starting to taper off earlier than the Israeli one.

Stop discounting pre-existing and acquired immunity.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:37 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I find it interesting that Israel's vaccination rate has fallen dramatically since early March. It's down to only a trickle now.

Have they reached the barrier of vaccine hesitancy?

Worryingly, the UK's curve is starting to taper off earlier than the Israeli one.


In England focus has switched from giving first jabs to giving second jabs. 7 day average for total daily jabs fell from a 506K peak mid-March to a 252K trough 10 days ago but is now rising again. I think lack of supply is responsible for reductions in jab rates. Nearly 90% of people asked said they would take up an offer of vaccination so I do not think there is much hesitancy here but that might be changing with the clotting episodes reported.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:46 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I find it interesting that Israel's vaccination rate has fallen dramatically since early March. It's down to only a trickle now.

Have they reached the barrier of vaccine hesitancy?

Worryingly, the UK's curve is starting to taper off earlier than the Israeli one.


Israel has vaccinated almost all eligible people. The trickle you see are probably the last 2nd doses and a few vaccine hesitants changing their mind (or/and teens turning 16).

57% fully vaccinated, and 4% with one dose gives 61% who took the vaccine. Considering that 31% (https://www.populationpyramid.net/israel/2019/)
of Israel's population is under 16 and adding about 2% for pregnant and breastfeeding women as well as people not able to take the vaccine (allergies, etc) we get 94% or only about 6% refusing to take a vaccine. Put in other words it seems Israel has about 10% of the adult population not willing to take a vaccine... (seems pretty good to me).

I believe Israel's vaccination campaign will accelerate again when Pfizer/BioNTech gets approved for those aged 12, 13, 14 and 15.

For the UK I don't think worries about vaccine hesitancy can be seen in the numbers . UK's vaccine supply is the limiting factor here. Since end of march 2nd dose have increased massively and thus much lower quantities of vaccine are available for first doses.
For example in week 8, 2.74 Mio people got a vaccine jab but only 0.19 Mio were 2nd doses. During week 14 (last week) 2.83 Mio were jabbed but 2nd doses account for 2.22 Mio. The number of first jab went down from 2.55 Mio to only 0.61 Mio
(I chose 2 weeks that had a similar number of vaccination)

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:45 pm

KFTG wrote:
Stop discounting pre-existing and acquired immunity.


I am absolutely not, nor do I see where you get that.
People who have been infected still need to get vaccinated, if only with the one dose.

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
Israel has vaccinated almost all eligible people. The trickle you see are probably the last 2nd doses and a few vaccine hesitants changing their mind (or/and teens turning 16).

57% fully vaccinated, and 4% with one dose gives 61% who took the vaccine. Considering that 31% (https://www.populationpyramid.net/israel/2019/)
of Israel's population is under 16 and adding about 2% for pregnant and breastfeeding women as well as people not able to take the vaccine (allergies, etc) we get 94% or only about 6% refusing to take a vaccine. Put in other words it seems Israel has about 10% of the adult population not willing to take a vaccine... (seems pretty good to me).

I believe Israel's vaccination campaign will accelerate again when Pfizer/BioNTech gets approved for those aged 12, 13, 14 and 15.

For the UK I don't think worries about vaccine hesitancy can be seen in the numbers . UK's vaccine supply is the limiting factor here. Since end of march 2nd dose have increased massively and thus much lower quantities of vaccine are available for first doses.
For example in week 8, 2.74 Mio people got a vaccine jab but only 0.19 Mio were 2nd doses. During week 14 (last week) 2.83 Mio were jabbed but 2nd doses account for 2.22 Mio. The number of first jab went down from 2.55 Mio to only 0.61 Mio
(I chose 2 weeks that had a similar number of vaccination)

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas



art wrote:
In England focus has switched from giving first jabs to giving second jabs. 7 day average for total daily jabs fell from a 506K peak mid-March to a 252K trough 10 days ago but is now rising again. I think lack of supply is responsible for reductions in jab rates. Nearly 90% of people asked said they would take up an offer of vaccination so I do not think there is much hesitancy here but that might be changing with the clotting episodes reported.


Thanks, that makes sense. The graphs I was looking at did not discriminate between those who have had 2 doses vs those who have only had the first.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:56 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I find it interesting that Israel's vaccination rate has fallen dramatically since early March. It's down to only a trickle now.

Have they reached the barrier of vaccine hesitancy?

Worryingly, the UK's curve is starting to taper off earlier than the Israeli one.

Since the entire world is running out of vaccine supplies, there is also the possibility that they are preserving supplies to ensure second doses are in place for those who already had their initial jab.

Apart of the AZ supply issue, all other makers are having ramp up issues, not to mention the millions of doses that had to be destroyed due to contamination.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:41 pm

Study made by the chilean government about Coronac (Sinovac´s vaccine):
https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-04-16/
This is the first real world study about this vaccine. Results:

67% effective in preventing symptomatic infection
85% effective in preventing hospitalizations
89% effective in preventing UCI
80% effective in preventing death
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:35 pm

descl wrote:
Study made by the chilean government about Coronac (Sinovac´s vaccine):
https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-04-16/
This is the first real world study about this vaccine. Results:

67% effective in preventing symptomatic infection
85% effective in preventing hospitalizations
89% effective in preventing UCI
80% effective in preventing death

From that link
Partially vaccinated people, those with just one shot, were found to be far more vulnerable to contracting COVID-19, the results showed.

People: I've had my one vaccination shot, I'm safe.
Virus: Bwaaa haaa haaa. Hold my beer. :spit:

I've seen this again and again with coworkers who misbehave. This is why I became such a fan of the J&J vaccine. Some people are not going to wait and the sooner they protect others, the better.

Seriously, this puts into perspective the numbers from Chile.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:39 pm

Unfortunately Moderna production in EU behind schedule. EU will get their vaccines, UK and Canada will be shorted.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mo ... NewsSearch

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Unfortunately Moderna production in EU behind schedule. EU will get their vaccines, UK and Canada will be shorted.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mo ... NewsSearch

Lightsaber


On the other hand, Canada has signed a contract for an additional 8 million doses with Pfizer, for delivery this May to July. This will more than cover the shortfalls in Moderna shipments to Canada.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/modern ... -1.5990166
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:45 am

descl wrote:
Study made by the chilean government about Coronac (Sinovac´s vaccine):
https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-04-16/
This is the first real world study about this vaccine. Results:

67% effective in preventing symptomatic infection
85% effective in preventing hospitalizations
89% effective in preventing UCI
80% effective in preventing death

UCI mean?
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:37 am

Unidad de Cuidado Intensivo, I presume... Spanish for ICU.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:46 am

I was listening to a discussion call-in programme on English LBC radio earlier, talking inter alia about travel restrictions to UK from other countries. The 'Indian mutant' was mentioned and there are reportedly about 40 cases of this identified in UK. An Indian general practitioner (I think) called in. He said that there are instances of fully vaccinated people in India subsequently catching the Indian mutant.

No source was mentioned for data but IF this variant can make fully immunised people ill, that is a worrying development, isn't it?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:58 am

There are now 8 more thrombosis cases in France with AZ, and only people in the 55-75 age group that is still getting that vaccine. 4 died.

For some reason the government talked about giving priority to some new groups for vaccination, mainly teachers, except they must be 55 and take AZ : all 55+ could already take AZ so there is nothing new.

TV news showed teachers showing up at vaccination centers, one was sent home because she was too young, only 54. Another came and asked about the vaccine he would be getting, when told it was AZ he ranted "who do they think we are ? It's a lack of respect. I'm very disappointed".

I think the AZ vaccine will soon be abandoned here...

They should give AZ to anyone willing, but I guess ethically (and even legally) it's not that simple.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:41 pm

art wrote:
I was listening to a discussion call-in programme on English LBC radio earlier, talking inter alia about travel restrictions to UK from other countries. The 'Indian mutant' was mentioned and there are reportedly about 40 cases of this identified in UK. An Indian general practitioner (I think) called in. He said that there are instances of fully vaccinated people in India subsequently catching the Indian mutant.

No source was mentioned for data but IF this variant can make fully immunised people ill, that is a worrying development, isn't it?


There was an opinion piece in the Guardian a few weeks (month) ago were the author said (I paraphrase her): Normally science is a process that take years. A group puts an idea and data out. Other scientists try to confirm or invalid the hypothesis and after years a prevailing opinion is formed and discussed in wider society. But with covid science is suddenly supposed to give us answers (and correct ones, on which all agree on) immediately. And thats not even considering that we get our information through media who puts their own spin on the story in order to fit their overall agenda.

Worse, not only does the media put their spin on the news, put a lot of journalists seem unable to understand the numbers they print and what their meaning and context is.

So to answer you're question: Is it a worrying trend? In my opinion we simply don't know.
From the beginning most experts seem to agree that one vaccination (or two jabs) will not be enough. We will need boosters that will not just boost our first vaccination but also help getting immunity against new variants.

I believe all the vaccine maker are actually working on adapting their vaccine for new mutations. For the EU the goal is to sequence the virus for at least 5% of all positive test and share the results with the researchers in order to identify new mutations as soon as possible and tweek the vaccines accordingly. I think elsewhere similar approach are taken.
The possibility to rapidly tweek also seems to be a major advantage of mRNA.

Also no vaccine protects 100% hence breakthrough will always happen. In order to access the situation in India we need much further information about rates of vaccinated people getting sick. Also information about the vaccines would be useful: those it happen with all vaccines at a similar rate or is one vaccine particularly affected and not efficient in protecting against a particular mutation.

We should also remember that if not getting sick is a major selling point of vaccines, in a pandemic situation other aspects are important too. Even if the efficacy of a vaccine is lower, reducing hospitalisation and mortality is already a win.

Please note that I'm no doctor and might have used some wrong terms in my little thought exercise.

I hope my answer helped a little...

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:22 pm

Aesma wrote:
There are now 8 more thrombosis cases in France with AZ, and only people in the 55-75 age group that is still getting that vaccine. 4 died.

For some reason the government talked about giving priority to some new groups for vaccination, mainly teachers, except they must be 55 and take AZ : all 55+ could already take AZ so there is nothing new.

TV news showed teachers showing up at vaccination centers, one was sent home because she was too young, only 54. Another came and asked about the vaccine he would be getting, when told it was AZ he ranted "who do they think we are ? It's a lack of respect. I'm very disappointed".

I think the AZ vaccine will soon be abandoned here...

They should give AZ to anyone willing, but I guess ethically (and even legally) it's not that simple.

The rate of AZ problems is far less than the rate due to Covid-19.

There will be hesitation now. That means fewer vaccinated and more cases. There won't be enough mRNA in time. Oh well...

Everyone naturally wants "the best" vaccine.
The vax adversion has grown with the AZ and J&J issues. I had persuaded 4 co-workers to get vaccinated who decided they wanted minimum effort (J&J). With that held up, at least two have decided to skip the vaccine. :cry2:


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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:34 pm

It's not really a question of efficacy so I wouldn't say the best, rather people are afraid of the AZ one. If it was otherwise the best, working much better than the others against COVID/variants, we might have some interesting dilemma, but that's not the case.

I'm not an antivaxx at all and think there could be some benefit to using other less effective vaccines if it means more, faster coverage, with an mRNA booster later for example (I wouldn't mind taking 3 or 4 shots this year if that's needed), however a dangerous side effect is something else in my mind. Yeah it's rare and we're starting to understand it a bit, but it's not exactly easy to treat and save people affected, it's a nasty one. You have to at least consider your own risk with COVID before taking it I would say. Personally I definitely don't want to get COVID, and have managed to not get it, I get out as little as possible, see as few people as possible. I'm not an hermit and it's not ideal but I could do it some more months if that meant getting a vaccine I feel safe about vs AZ. Of course many people can't do that, especially if they have children.

DocLightning : I'm 37 and my mother is 66. In France unfortunately the clotting issue has affected people in this age range, men too.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:13 pm

Aesma wrote:
It's not really a question of efficacy so I wouldn't say the best, rather people are afraid of the AZ one. If it was otherwise the best, working much better than the others against COVID/variants, we might have some interesting dilemma, but that's not the case.

I'm not an antivaxx at all and think there could be some benefit to using other less effective vaccines if it means more, faster coverage, with an mRNA booster later for example (I wouldn't mind taking 3 or 4 shots this year if that's needed), however a dangerous side effect is something else in my mind. Yeah it's rare and we're starting to understand it a bit, but it's not exactly easy to treat and save people affected, it's a nasty one. You have to at least consider your own risk with COVID before taking it I would say. Personally I definitely don't want to get COVID, and have managed to not get it, I get out as little as possible, see as few people as possible. I'm not an hermit and it's not ideal but I could do it some more months if that meant getting a vaccine I feel safe about vs AZ. Of course many people can't do that, especially if they have children.

DocLightning : I'm 37 and my mother is 66. In France unfortunately the clotting issue has affected people in this age range, men too.

Definately concerned about AZ after "quasi-effective" and yhe blood clot issue. J&J was wise to stand down, collect data, and let the FDA make a recommendation.

The reality is, there won't be enough vaccine in 2021, much less 2Q2021.

I am personally a fan of AZ then mRNA as I believe that is the quickest path to effective vaccination. However, trials data is required. So that we can agree upon. But that requires getting vaccines out of the negative press and social media.

There does seem to be a group AZ and J&J (and by association Sputnik V) should not be given to. Unfortunately weight and medications effect all medicine, including vaccines. e.g., when my sister opperates, she has her favorite anesthesia. However, it cannot be used on a BMI > 35 as there are safety concerns as most medicines are fat soluble. I hope sensible "carve outs" may occur.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:03 pm

I just wanted to say how much I appreciate this thread. It’s the best discussion I’ve found anywhere, and a good source of information. You guys post reliable links. Also, I appreciate the more international perspective I find here, versus the more localized content most news sites publish. Keep up the good work!
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:02 am

About the Indian variant which has arrived in UK:

Dr Hopkins, chief medical adviser for NHS Test and Trace: "I would always say when these new variants do emerge it is a concern and it's really important that we get as much information as we can as quickly as possible.

"What's concerning about the Indian variant is there appear to be two mutations which... may make the vaccines less effective, and may make the virus more transmissible.

"The key thing here is 'may'. We are still trying to gather evidence about this."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56792740

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
From the beginning most experts seem to agree that one vaccination (or two jabs) will not be enough. We will need boosters that will not just boost our first vaccination but also help getting immunity against new variants.

I believe all the vaccine maker are actually working on adapting their vaccine for new mutations.out the vaccines would be useful: those it happen with all vaccines at a similar rate or is one vaccine particularly affected and not efficient in protecting against a particular mutation.


I wonder about 'tweaking' vaccines to address new variants. If that could be done in an instant (the tweaked version of the vaccine is formulated the day the variant first appears), how long does it then take to produce billions of doses of the modified vaccine and get it into billions of arms? If (IF) variants appear where vaccines already administered do not prevent infection and symptomatic illness, do we repeat the practices of lockdown/isolation/mask wearing/social distancing? If variants of concern keep appearing in the coming months/years, it could be years before we return to something like pre-COVID normality.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:58 am

art wrote:
About the Indian variant which has arrived in UK:

Dr Hopkins, chief medical adviser for NHS Test and Trace: "I would always say when these new variants do emerge it is a concern and it's really important that we get as much information as we can as quickly as possible.

"What's concerning about the Indian variant is there appear to be two mutations which... may make the vaccines less effective, and may make the virus more transmissible.

"The key thing here is 'may'. We are still trying to gather evidence about this."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56792740

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
From the beginning most experts seem to agree that one vaccination (or two jabs) will not be enough. We will need boosters that will not just boost our first vaccination but also help getting immunity against new variants.

I believe all the vaccine maker are actually working on adapting their vaccine for new mutations.out the vaccines would be useful: those it happen with all vaccines at a similar rate or is one vaccine particularly affected and not efficient in protecting against a particular mutation.


I wonder about 'tweaking' vaccines to address new variants. If that could be done in an instant (the tweaked version of the vaccine is formulated the day the variant first appears), how long does it then take to produce billions of doses of the modified vaccine and get it into billions of arms? If (IF) variants appear where vaccines already administered do not prevent infection and symptomatic illness, do we repeat the practices of lockdown/isolation/mask wearing/social distancing? If variants of concern keep appearing in the coming months/years, it could be years before we return to something like pre-COVID normality.

The new variant must be isolated. Then vaccines tested. The B.1.351 (South Africa variant) was discovered in October of 2020:
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/news/rele ... SARS-CoV-2.

We expect "booster shots" for that variant in the fall:
AstraZeneca boost in six to nine months from 21 February 2021. https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-12 ... index.html
Moderna booster "by the Fall": https://news.yahoo.com/moderna-covid-va ... 26992.html
Pfizer is also developing a booster. Fauci is saying not up to companies, but a public health decision :
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fauci ... uxbndlbing

My take is the public health decisions haven't been well done. I'll look on the data on the boosters and if the current vaccine isn't "good enough" then we'll need.
AZ was rather poor against B.1.351 (South Africa) and we need data on B.1.617 (India). It has done fairly well against P.1 (Brazil):
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14378798/ ... l-variant/

So the answer to your questions:
1. Boosters take about a year to deal with variants
2. The various vaccines will have different effectiveness against new variants.

But more testing is required. e.g., it looks like Pfizer needs a full 2 weeks after 2nd dose to work against B.1.351, but then it seems to work (more data required):
https://indianexpress.com/article/world ... s-7279736/

The above makes a good point. People treat vaccines as if they work instantly. They take weeks to build immunity. All the Western vaccines seem to improve with age.
E.g., AZ takes 3 weeks to work:
https://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/ ... protection.

But most important:
They also said that there was also no evidence that any of the current Covid-19 vaccines could completely stop people from being infected, advising people to continue to wear masks and maintain other health guidelines laid out by the World Health Organization.

Vaccines will never provide 100% protection. There will be some fraction of 'break through.' What matters is that the person infected is less likely than unvaccinated to transmit (by 2/3rds to 90%, how many doses, how long since dose, and vaccine type dependent):
https://www.dw.com/en/astrazeneca-vacci ... %20January

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... l-n1262334

I plan to get a booster this fall and my kids are being warned they will have 3 doses. But due to variants. The vaccines seem to be lasting.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:15 am

Aesma wrote:
It's not really a question of efficacy so I wouldn't say the best, rather people are afraid of the AZ one. If it was otherwise the best, working much better than the others against COVID/variants, we might have some interesting dilemma, but that's not the case.

I'm not an antivaxx at all and think there could be some benefit to using other less effective vaccines if it means more, faster coverage, with an mRNA booster later for example (I wouldn't mind taking 3 or 4 shots this year if that's needed), however a dangerous side effect is something else in my mind. Yeah it's rare and we're starting to understand it a bit, but it's not exactly easy to treat and save people affected, it's a nasty one. You have to at least consider your own risk with COVID before taking it I would say. Personally I definitely don't want to get COVID, and have managed to not get it, I get out as little as possible, see as few people as possible. I'm not an hermit and it's not ideal but I could do it some more months if that meant getting a vaccine I feel safe about vs AZ. Of course many people can't do that, especially if they have children.

DocLightning : I'm 37 and my mother is 66. In France unfortunately the clotting issue has affected people in this age range, men too.

We can agree you don't want Covid19. The long haul symptoms becoming annoying: 2+ months without being able to taste animal fat, ok, about 2 weeks little taste, but then some recovery. I have no reason to try cheese, butter, ice cream, lamb, hamburger, good steak, bacon, or any food that derives flavor from animal fat. Unfortunately, this for some reason includes french fries in vegetable oils too...

I wore masks, but I wasn't a hermit. For my mental health, I need more socialization.

You bring up a good point, we need the children vaccinated too. A neighborhood child has the inverted tasted (everything tastes rotten, so doesn't want to eat) as their long haul symptom. :cry2:

The main benefit of vaccines is to slow the spread. With one of the mass produced vaccines looking to be sidelined, that is a big deal. Factories that make AZ can switch to J&J with only the loss of a few months of production. The switch to mRNA requires new support factories (lipids) and upgrades that mean a 5 month or so (my opinion) loss in production. I posted a link upthread showing the benefit of AZ outweighed the risk, but it is hard for people to get their mind around that.

Coronavirus causes bad clots on its own. I personally know three people who had coronavirus induced heart attacks (but I'm in my early 50s, when 1st heart attacks typically happen, although my first friend had one at age 40. So I am naturally in a social group seeing heart attacks anyway.). I also know a few with the lung scaring (one so bad a 30 something once athlete can no longer walk more than a hundred yards on the flat).

There won't be enough vaccine 2Q 2021 to matter. Oh, maybe for the UK, USA, and Israel. But not enough for the rest of the world. :brokenheart:
Israel has shown 60% vaccinated with a very effective vaccine helps (it might be enough), with 31% of the population children, they are waiting on approval to vaccinate the children. The UK is a grand experiment. With just under half their people vaccinated 1 dose with few (but growing) 2 dose, I think they will see a spike up.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... vaccinated

I believe each person must make their own decision. But each person must also weigh their impact on others. For example, my children will be vaccinated to protect the grandparents as well as taking away a worry.

No doubt mRNA is good. But not enough of it will be available in 2021 much less the coming months. Oh, production is increasing, but there is always a ramp rate.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:14 pm

art wrote:
About the Indian variant which has arrived in UK:

Dr Hopkins, chief medical adviser for NHS Test and Trace: "I would always say when these new variants do emerge it is a concern and it's really important that we get as much information as we can as quickly as possible.

"What's concerning about the Indian variant is there appear to be two mutations which... may make the vaccines less effective, and may make the virus more transmissible.

"The key thing here is 'may'. We are still trying to gather evidence about this."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56792740

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
From the beginning most experts seem to agree that one vaccination (or two jabs) will not be enough. We will need boosters that will not just boost our first vaccination but also help getting immunity against new variants.

I believe all the vaccine maker are actually working on adapting their vaccine for new mutations.out the vaccines would be useful: those it happen with all vaccines at a similar rate or is one vaccine particularly affected and not efficient in protecting against a particular mutation.


I wonder about 'tweaking' vaccines to address new variants. If that could be done in an instant (the tweaked version of the vaccine is formulated the day the variant first appears), how long does it then take to produce billions of doses of the modified vaccine and get it into billions of arms? If (IF) variants appear where vaccines already administered do not prevent infection and symptomatic illness, do we repeat the practices of lockdown/isolation/mask wearing/social distancing? If variants of concern keep appearing in the coming months/years, it could be years before we return to something like pre-COVID normality.


Lightsaber has already given a few answers...
Concerning mRNA, my understanding is that modification can be made really fast. But testing is another matter. To have good data for a booster I assume the test must last at least 3 month (perhaps somebody has a better estimate). If we also consider finding volunteers before the test, and putting the data together and get emergency use afterwards, we should have at least 6 month from start to use for boosters...

There was an iterview of one of the BioNTech founders on CNN a month ago, were she said that they still had to define the process with governments how boosters and modifications to vaccines will be authorised. I don't know how much this important matter has evolved.

And other point to consider: countries like the US and UK have a well etablished structure for vaccine trials. But the vaccine booster and modification must be tested were the mutations rage, and those places might have worse infrastructure, making the trials last longer....

Even if we might be able to beat Covid it will take years. Rich countries will be able to go back to a kind of "normal" earlier but even there some mesures will still have to be taken. Even lookdowns might still be possible if a new mutation appears. But I think those lookdowns will be much more limited in space and time.
International travel is almost certain to be "controlled" for years to come.

As for vaccination, as long as supply is the limiting factor, I believe vaccine will just be given, even if it is not the best. Modified vaccine will slowly be coming and maybe be used first where they make most sense. I don't think we will be vaccinated against all relevant mutations. Hence I believe some travel restrictions will be kept in places (for exemple in the region were I leave the vaccine used isn't good for mutation xy. If I go to a region were mutation xy is dominant I will have to take a booster against that strain before my travel.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:34 pm

The main benefit of vaccines is to slow the spread
Not unrelated, but a vaccinated world will greatly reduce variants. We are not safe, until the rest of the world is safe. (of course that really is true for all of the issues facing our specie)
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:55 pm

I wouldn’t count AstraZeneca down and out just yet. Yes, some European countries have discontinued its use, but I feel those decisions were very politically driven, and not informed by good science.

Canada has been giving out AZ to 55+. The provinces of Alberta and Ontario have just announced that they will start giving AZ to 40+.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ ... -1.5992703

Personally, I have quite a few Alberta friends in the 40-55 age group that are very excited for this news and are looking forward to AZ sooner versus Pfizer or Moderna later.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:07 pm

aerolimani wrote:
I wouldn’t count AstraZeneca down and out just yet. Yes, some European countries have discontinued its use, but I feel those decisions were very politically driven, and not informed by good science.

Canada has been giving out AZ to 55+. The provinces of Alberta and Ontario have just announced that they will start giving AZ to 40+.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ ... -1.5992703

Personally, I have quite a few Alberta friends in the 40-55 age group that are very excited for this news and are looking forward to AZ sooner versus Pfizer or Moderna later.


My brother who will be 41 in June has registered with 3 pharmacies already and now the one of the biggest Canadian telecom companies (Rogers) is experiencing a national outage :hissyfit: :hissyfit: .

It won't be down and out, it will probably be the most widely used vaccine across the globe when this is said and done. The limits of the mRNA vaccines needed to be stored in cold environments will make it hard to distribute in much of the developing world where access to -20 or -80 freezers will not be as easy and many of those population in rural settings.
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:34 pm

I 100% agree AZ is a good Vaccine and any risks have been blown out of proportion.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/19/vac ... ral-months
Without these two vaccines in the mix, the EU could see its timeline pushed back to 8 December, according to science analytics company Airfinity.

Europe is doing a grand experiment. We will not know until 2022 how big an impact this will have. More will die without AZ than with by orders of magnitude.

Hopefully new guidelines emerge.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The main benefit of vaccines is to slow the spread
Not unrelated, but a vaccinated world will greatly reduce variants. We are not safe, until the rest of the world is safe. (of course that really is true for all of the issues facing our specie)

100% agree with this virus. The rich countries will have to donate huge quantities of vaccine.

The great experiment is the UK right now. Opening up with less than half vaccinated (single dose). Hopefully NovaVax works well (another high volume vaccine).

Lightsaber
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hbernal1
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:45 pm

Getting my 2nd dose of Pfizer this Friday. Just a handful of weeks away from that sweet, sweet COVID antibody protection (for 6 months at least)! I'm looking forward to mingling unmasked with other vaccinated folks :D
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:05 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I 100% agree AZ is a good Vaccine and any risks have been blown out of proportion.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/19/vac ... ral-months
Without these two vaccines in the mix, the EU could see its timeline pushed back to 8 December, according to science analytics company Airfinity.

Europe is doing a grand experiment. We will not know until 2022 how big an impact this will have. More will die without AZ than with by orders of magnitude.

Hopefully new guidelines emerge.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The main benefit of vaccines is to slow the spread
Not unrelated, but a vaccinated world will greatly reduce variants. We are not safe, until the rest of the world is safe. (of course that really is true for all of the issues facing our specie)

100% agree with this virus. The rich countries will have to donate huge quantities of vaccine.

The great experiment is the UK right now. Opening up with less than half vaccinated (single dose). Hopefully NovaVax works well (another high volume vaccine).

Lightsaber


I think the countries like the US (not yet approved) or Denmark (who stopped it) have the luxury of having a consistent supply of Pfizer and Moderna to distribute to their populations. Fauci has said we might not need AZ. Well your northern neighbor does, send them over if there are not being used.

Regarding the UK, if they have vaccinated their most vulnerable and have the ICU capacity to deal with another wave then I would say go for it within reason. Ensure you have adequate testing and contact tracing in place and that the rules clear and enforced. Unless your plan is Covid 0 then you have to put in the biggest effort to manage an open society with the threat of the virus as you keep the vaccinations going.

Canada's 3rd wave has strained the hospitals mainly because the hospital (especially ICU) capacity wasn't cleared at the end of wave 2. However the long term care homes were the first to be vaccinated and thus there is no issues there and that is for the moment keeping the deaths relatively low. If the hospitals have to triage then that might change.
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Chemist
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:42 pm

A couple items for discussion:
1 - Why does/should it take a year for variant boosters if we only took a year for the initial vaccines? I thought it would be a faster process? If trials needed again, how long should that take? Do they do flu shot trials for variants every year?
2 - re: Lightsaber getting COVID even when masked - I had some old N95 particle masks in the garage, unused, and we are re-using those through a rotation cycle. I assume that they are a lot better than cloth masks. Why after over a year are we not able to give N95 masks to the general population? This is disgraceful.
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:49 pm

France "TousAntiCovid" app used for tracing contacts with bluetooth, that also gives info on the pandemic, daily updates etc., is now going to include a "health passport" that will show vaccine status or COVID status if you have done a test. This will be used starting in a few days for travellers.

It's basically what the EU wants to introduce, and when the EU one is decided upon the French one will probably be made compatible.
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marcelh
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:53 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Europe is doing a grand experiment. We will not know until 2022 how big an impact this will have. More will die without AZ than with by orders of magnitude.


O please, come on.
AZ is still being administered in Europe. Only Denmark has stopped the vaccination with AZ and the Czech Republic has stated they are willing to take the remaining doses of Denmark.
You are talking about “how big this impact will have”. That impact will be much smaller than the impact of the doses which AZ wasn’t able to deliver in time. You should ask yourself how many have died (and will die) because of that.

Fortunately Pfizer is doing a great job, so we are still on schedule for at least one jab by July.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:12 pm

marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Europe is doing a grand experiment. We will not know until 2022 how big an impact this will have. More will die without AZ than with by orders of magnitude.


O please, come on.
AZ is still being administered in Europe. Only Denmark has stopped the vaccination with AZ and the Czech Republic has stated they are willing to take the remaining doses of Denmark.
You are talking about “how big this impact will have”. That impact will be much smaller than the impact of the doses which AZ wasn’t able to deliver in time. You should ask yourself how many have died (and will die) because of that.

Fortunately Pfizer is doing a great job, so we are still on schedule for at least one jab by July.

Norway and Denmark have both suspended use of AZ.

However, I didn’t realize that the rest of the European countries who had previously suspended its use have all resumed. I thought it’s was still more widely suspended. Still, like Canada, they are using AZ with certain age restrictions.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:49 pm

Someone who turned down AZ has gone public with consequences of catching Covid19:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

I wonder what the ratio of bad consequences will be, in particular as AZ helps slow the spread (I posted numerous links up thread).

Sad...

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proest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:49 pm

Wondering when the US will start exporting vaccines, already 62 shots per 100, and 40% have had the first shot. Roughly 24% under the age of 18, so (max 152 shots/100 needed total, little less due to J&J). There is a case to be made to control vaccine export very hard till at least everybody has the first shot, after that the case starts to get weaker very fast.

Roughly 36% of Americans above 18 still need a first vaccination, this includes all vaccine hesitate people (which I guess at 20%), so speed will likely drop in 3/4 weeks time. It's time for the US to start exporting (at a slow pace), beginning with AZ which Canada/India/UK could directly put to good use, but soon also Pfizer and Moderna.
 
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stl07
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:54 pm

proest wrote:
Wondering when the US will start exporting vaccines, already 62 shots per 100, and 40% have had the first shot. Roughly 24% under the age of 18, so (max 152 shots/100 needed total, little less due to J&J). There is a case to be made to control vaccine export very hard till at least everybody has the first shot, after that the case starts to get weaker very fast.

Roughly 36% of Americans above 18 still need a first vaccination, this includes all vaccine hesitate people (which I guess at 20%), so speed will likely drop in 3/4 weeks time. It's time for the US to start exporting (at a slow pace), beginning with AZ which Canada/India/UK could directly put to good use, but soon also Pfizer and Moderna.

I think the US is already exporting AZ
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panamair
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:13 am

stl07 wrote:
proest wrote:
Wondering when the US will start exporting vaccines, already 62 shots per 100, and 40% have had the first shot. Roughly 24% under the age of 18, so (max 152 shots/100 needed total, little less due to J&J). There is a case to be made to control vaccine export very hard till at least everybody has the first shot, after that the case starts to get weaker very fast.

Roughly 36% of Americans above 18 still need a first vaccination, this includes all vaccine hesitate people (which I guess at 20%), so speed will likely drop in 3/4 weeks time. It's time for the US to start exporting (at a slow pace), beginning with AZ which Canada/India/UK could directly put to good use, but soon also Pfizer and Moderna.

I think the US is already exporting AZ


It’s technically a loan to Canada and Mexico at this point...exports are still officially forbidden.

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