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art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 01, 2021 12:43 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
There are legitimate concerns as the vaccines were rushed and are not fully approved.
The concerns are long-term side effects, such as developing new allergies, loss of fertility, birth defects, auto-immune disease and cancer.
These vaccines have never been in a human body for longer than a year and some are showing unexpected side effects and have been suspended on and off.
As much as hesitancy may appear foolish, ignoring long-term risks is as foolish if not more so, especially considering Covid-19's relatively low fatality rate compared to diseases like Ebola.


Agreed, undesirable long term effects of vaccination need a long term to become apparent.

The short term effects of infection are already apparent. As are the short term effects of vaccination.

England data mid-January before many people were vaccinated show a peak of 60K+ infections detected each day and 1K+ deaths with COVID-19 infection each day.

England data now with 50% of people vaccinated with first of 2 doses show around 2.5K infections detected each day and around 0.025K deaths with COVID-19 infection each day.

Society has to choose whether short term benefits of vaccination resulting in an enormous drop in COVID-19 infections, deaths and cases of 'long COVID' outweigh unknown long term risks.

PS Would you recommend 2 or 5 or 10 year trials to ascertain side effects before embarking on vaccinating the population?
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 01, 2021 1:01 pm

Interesting experiment in England to monitor transmission in a large group of people in close proximity in an enclosed space with no mask protection:

Around 3,000 revellers aged 18 to 20 danced to pounding music in a warehouse on the docks, in close contact with each other and without wearing masks, according to a Reuters witness.

Attendees at the evening event had to test negative for COVID-19 within 24 hours of the event.


Researchers will accumulate data from these events to see how approaches to social distancing and ventilation affect the spread of the virus.


https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/thousa ... 021-04-30/
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 01, 2021 3:55 pm

https://www.dw.com/pt-br/guedes-diz-que ... a-57356927
Brazilian Minister of economy claim Chinese vaccines less effective than American while calling China invented the virus, in a meeting he didn't know would stream online.
Currently 80% vaccination in Brazil are from China's SinoVac vaccine
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 01, 2021 4:07 pm

https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2098437
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... ic-workers
Hong Kong government want to make vaccine a mandatory requirements for 370,000 foreign domestic helper when renewing vaccine in addition to future new application, after 2 of them found to be infected with mutant virus from within the community
Their representative think it is a discrimination and them being treated as scapegoat since such requirement doesn't apply to other foreign workers
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 01, 2021 6:38 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://www.dw.com/pt-br/guedes-diz-que-chin%C3%AAs-criou-o-coronav%C3%ADrus-e-desenvolveu-vacina-pior-que-a-dos-eua/a-57356927
Brazilian Minister of economy claim Chinese vaccines less effective than American while calling China invented the virus, in a meeting he didn't know would stream online.
Currently 80% vaccination in Brazil are from China's SinoVac vaccine

SinoVac is just above 50% effecacy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... cacy-rates

Not great.

In my opinion china has hidden so much about the source of this virus and thus puts them at suspect. Wuhan had run on hospitals in August!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB15dy6n


The old style vaccines are not very effective against a fast mutating virus such as Covid19. Adenovacs, mRNA, and I hope NovaVax seem to be the only solutions to stop this virus.

Old school vaccines are a temporary stop gap. Everyone getting one will need a booster early. But then again, all of us should get a booster.

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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 01, 2021 8:18 pm

CaptainHaresh wrote:
The concerns are long-term side effects, such as developing new allergies, loss of fertility, birth defects, auto-immune disease and cancer.


All these things are already increasing regardless of vaccines, because of all the pollutants we live immersed in and even voluntarily ingest.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
PPVRA
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 01, 2021 8:56 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://www.dw.com/pt-br/guedes-diz-que-chin%C3%AAs-criou-o-coronav%C3%ADrus-e-desenvolveu-vacina-pior-que-a-dos-eua/a-57356927
Brazilian Minister of economy claim Chinese vaccines less effective than American while calling China invented the virus, in a meeting he didn't know would stream online.
Currently 80% vaccination in Brazil are from China's SinoVac vaccine


He wasn’t really being serious. Just an off the cuff remark, made privately, that got out. He’s not at all some nutcase who thinks China engineered the virus.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 01, 2021 9:32 pm

Looking at worldometers data, I see a remarkable contrast between UK and US data.

Both countries have not very dissimilar proportions of the population vaccinated but UK has active cases of a little over 0.1% of population whereas for the US the figure is around 20 times higher at near 2% of population. Can anyone offer an explanation for such a large disparity?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
PPVRA
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 01, 2021 11:08 pm

India’s situation is going from bad to worse. Let’s hope the US finally gives away those extra AZ doses. Send them all to India I’d say, given they’re an important vaccine manufacturing hub for the world. Don’t want that crawling to a halt…

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-05-01/
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
Tiredofhumanity
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 01, 2021 11:12 pm

art wrote:
Looking at worldometers data, I see a remarkable contrast between UK and US data.

Both countries have not very dissimilar proportions of the population vaccinated but UK has active cases of a little over 0.1% of population whereas for the US the figure is around 20 times higher at near 2% of population. Can anyone offer an explanation for such a large disparity?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


I would bet that discrepancy boils down to other health measures and restrictions.

In the US we really have 50 different sets of restrictions since each state does its own thing. On one hand you have Hawaii that still quarantines travellers from the mainland, and on the other you have Texas that restricts cities from simply enforcing a mask mandate. It's a farce...

From what I've heard the UK has been more consistent at the national level, and the level of cases never got as bad as it was here in the US.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 02, 2021 2:50 am

CaptainHaresh wrote:
Those same persons, instead of eating some humble pie


CaptainHaresh wrote:
People advocating for optimistic solutions, while probably doing so with the best intentions, should look themselves in the mirror and ask if they're not part of the problem.


Weren’t you the one constantly casting skepticism on Israel's vaccination efforts...how it didn’t seem to be working, how it wasn’t the proper solution, etc.? Have you eaten your humble pie yet?
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 02, 2021 3:12 am

India needs to be totally isolated from the rest of the world.
 
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par13del
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 02, 2021 12:48 pm

PPVRA wrote:
India’s situation is going from bad to worse. Let’s hope the US finally gives away those extra AZ doses. Send them all to India I’d say, given they’re an important vaccine manufacturing hub for the world. Don’t want that crawling to a halt…

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-05-01/

We are told that lockdowns work, WHO, PAHO, EU, EMA, CDC, etc all touted the "efficacy" of this approach to Covid-19, why is India refusing to place this tool in its tool kit?
The 60m doses the USA is talking about is not sitting in storage, it is part of its production / purchase train, and with a population of over 1billion, even if the 60m was just sitting there, that alone would in no way make a major dent in the current situation.
India maintains a caste system, have we seen any studies or investigative reports on how the society structure is co-existing with the virus and efforts to eradicate or get under control?
India also uses a lot of oxygen, the West initially went on a ventilator spree early in the pandemic which has a much higher cost, we ultimately found out how efficient the ventilator approach was, how about the way India is deploying oxygen? A number of countries with vaccine supplies and high vaccination rates are pushing to reopen international travel, tourist dependent countries will welcome that even though they have little to no vaccine supplies and minimal percentage of citizens vaccinated, would having viable treatment options for their citizens compensate for the lack of a vaccine program?
The increase in international travel will go hand in hand along with an increase in infections in the destinations, unfortunately, the economic damage done from a year of lock downs will not be offset by the reopening of the tourist market, after all, the destinations will all be attempting to compete so we can expect major discounts, maybe not from the airlines but the destination properties. Perhaps the tourist dependent economies in addition to looking to source vaccines should also be beefing up their treatment options?
Cruise lines are pushing for all pax to be vaccinated, that would be a boon for the cruise line and some economic assistance to countries, one would expect the majority of pax to stay onboard, the destination would have to make do with taxes, nothing more.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 02, 2021 1:39 pm

par13del wrote:
We are told that lockdowns work, WHO, PAHO, EU, EMA, CDC, etc all touted the "efficacy" of this approach to Covid-19, why is India refusing to place this tool in its tool kit?


Lockdowns are a rich country's 'solution'. A nation like India, home to dozens or hundreds of millions of poor workers who rely on a daily wage to fend off starvation, that is simply not possible as the cure would be worse than the disease.

In a way, given the population of India, its density and rampant poverty and scarce access to basic hygiene for millions, I'm afraid this disaster was going to happen no matter what.
I am surprised it took so long if anything. It seems the first wave didn't do much headway into the population. Not sure whether some sort of prevalent immunity to the initial variants delayed the outbreak until one that could weasel its way through it appeared or whether it was just dumb luck, but whatever the case may be, it eventually found a way.

There is no way to prevent the virus from circulating in a community unless you hermetically shut said community from the rest of the World durably. You can try and delay it and control the outbreak so as to allow the healthcare system to keep up (and the virus will incessantly try to mutate around this), but one way or the other, the only way out of this is through building immunity. That's going to happen either through exposure or, preferably, artificial immunization.

I am amazed that some nations are seemingly not putting much effort in vaccination drives under the pretense that they have a good control on the virus. The thing is, at best you are isolating yourself from the planet and hiding in a hole living in fear for the long term, at worst the virus eventually finds a way through to a largely antibody-deprived and vulnerable population and catches you pants down.
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 02, 2021 4:45 pm

Francoflier wrote:
par13del wrote:
We are told that lockdowns work, WHO, PAHO, EU, EMA, CDC, etc all touted the "efficacy" of this approach to Covid-19, why is India refusing to place this tool in its tool kit?


Lockdowns are a rich country's 'solution'. A nation like India, home to dozens or hundreds of millions of poor workers who rely on a daily wage to fend off starvation, that is simply not possible as the cure would be worse than the disease.

In a way, given the population of India, its density and rampant poverty and scarce access to basic hygiene for millions, I'm afraid this disaster was going to happen no matter what.
I am surprised it took so long if anything. It seems the first wave didn't do much headway into the population. Not sure whether some sort of prevalent immunity to the initial variants delayed the outbreak until one that could weasel its way through it appeared or whether it was just dumb luck, but whatever the case may be, it eventually found a way.

There is no way to prevent the virus from circulating in a community unless you hermetically shut said community from the rest of the World durably. You can try and delay it and control the outbreak so as to allow the healthcare system to keep up (and the virus will incessantly try to mutate around this), but one way or the other, the only way out of this is through building immunity. That's going to happen either through exposure or, preferably, artificial immunization.

I am amazed that some nations are seemingly not putting much effort in vaccination drives under the pretense that they have a good control on the virus. The thing is, at best you are isolating yourself from the planet and hiding in a hole living in fear for the long term, at worst the virus eventually finds a way through to a largely antibody-deprived and vulnerable population and catches you pants down.

I'll phrase another way. Lockdowns hit the economy hard. Every time there is a lockdown, there is bounce back, but not fully. People who lost money do not spend.

In India, more of the population lives payday to payday (often day to day). There is no eviction suppression as in rich countries as that would collapse an already fragile banking system. (It will do permanent damage in the USA.)

I happen to agree it was surprising the first wave was so mild. Lockdowns in a slum where "hot bunking" was occuring (night shift slept during the day and day shift slept at night) is not exactly safe. People must go back to the villages.

The only way to stop this is extremely high vaccination rates, as you note in different words. While there will be people who are vaccinated who get sick, their impact on the hospital system will be reduced and more importantly, I've posted numerous links in this thread on how vaccines slow transmission. If India was dealing with a monsoon instead of a Tsunami, it wouldn't be half as tragic.

Wikipedia does an adequate summary of how to model infectious spread.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathemati ... us_disease

The goal is to increase the immune population q, with the critical immune threashold qc=1-1/Ro
With a disease with an Ro close to 4 and vaccine effectiveness < 100%, qc is about 75%, if vaccine effectiveness is 90% (mRNA), that means over 85% must be vaccinated.

I really hope the Un-vaccinated realize what they are signing up for. Last night I had a lovely dinner. But there was no point trying the shrimp, crab, cheesecake, or the chocolate mouse. From my coronavirus exposure, I cannot taste animal fat and those foods were not worth the calories. While the vaccine is helping me recover taste, I'm not there fully.

I know several with corona virus induced heart attacks. Not people on the web, but people in my social circles before lockdown. Two of my daughters' classmates died of Covid19 (children) who seemed quite healthy to me (sad case, father and both elementary school age sons died leaving a very grief stricken wife).

So since enough adults won't be responsible to slow community spread, it is time to vaccinate the children. The Pfizer trial of 12 to 15 year olds went well.
Applied in Europe last week:
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pfizer- ... on-2425389

In study of 2200 adolescents, vaccinated ZERO cases. 18 cases in unvaccinated. That is statistically significant. But why is the approval taking so long? I *really* want to vaccinate my 10 year old (we must wait for more data) and my 12 year old. Approval is expected by FDA in May (I haven't heard a timeline for the EU):
https://abc11.com/pfizer-12-15-vaccine- ... /10464173/
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/pfize ... ved-in-may

I've heard rumors that the 6 through 11 study could complete in July. Sigh... too late for us to travel. The infants through age 5 I've heard September.

While we need to vaccinate the world, we also just need to stop it here to open the economy. We cannot really help each other until our society is functioning normally again.

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avier
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 02, 2021 7:37 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Last night I had a lovely dinner. But there was no point trying the shrimp, crab, cheesecake, or the chocolate mouse. From my coronavirus exposure, I cannot taste animal fat and those foods were not worth the calories. While the vaccine is helping me recover taste, I'm not there fully.

Since when have you lost your taste sensation? I'm hearing for some it's almost like permanent i.e they haven't got it back since atleast 6 months or 1yr, from the time they first had covid. That includes both taste/smell.
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 02, 2021 10:55 pm

There are experimental treatments being tried, the brain might need to be reeducated again, too.

About India, they had some lockdowns in the beginning, blocks of buildings blocked off by police, now New Delhi is in a "lockdown" but I don't know the details. Clearly for such to work the government would need to distribute free food to a lot of people.

Countries that can sending help is good, borders should be fully closed too, not just flights from India, but tracking everyone potentially coming from there.

In France we had no "India variant" for some time, unlike our neighbours, then suddenly we got several, all people coming back from India...
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kelval
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon May 03, 2021 3:38 am

Wich might imply we are behind in sequencing the tests in great numbers.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon May 03, 2021 2:50 pm

NY Times article says what many of us have feared - that due to vaccine hesitancy, herd immunity even in the US isn't likely to be achieved, and that COVID-19 will become an illness that will remain at a low level and end up like the flu or common cold over a couple of generations:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/heal ... ccine.html
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon May 03, 2021 3:53 pm

Chemist wrote:
NY Times article says what many of us have feared - that due to vaccine hesitancy, herd immunity even in the US isn't likely to be achieved, and that COVID-19 will become an illness that will remain at a low level and end up like the flu or common cold over a couple of generations:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/heal ... ccine.html

Agreed. Now let ys vaccinate the kids. IMHO there is no reason not to add 12 to 15 year olds for Pfizer.

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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon May 03, 2021 4:30 pm

avier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Last night I had a lovely dinner. But there was no point trying the shrimp, crab, cheesecake, or the chocolate mouse. From my coronavirus exposure, I cannot taste animal fat and those foods were not worth the calories. While the vaccine is helping me recover taste, I'm not there fully.

Since when have you lost your taste sensation? I'm hearing for some it's almost like permanent i.e they haven't got it back since atleast 6 months or 1yr, from the time they first had covid. That includes both taste/smell.

I regained most of my taste. In mid February I discovered I had coronavirus from almost complete loss of taste and smell. Those were my first symptoms. All I could taste for a week was coffee and spices. So I haven't tasted animal fats for 10 weeks.

I also have tennitus from Covid19 and smell loss. The vaccine helps the body heal (3 theories, live virus, "shards of virus", or bodies autoimmune system needs a reset.

It could be permanent.
This disease causes lung, nerve, and blood vessel damage. The anti-vax are signing up for a long haul...

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art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon May 03, 2021 8:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
This disease causes lung, nerve, and blood vessel damage. The anti-vax are signing up for a long haul...


I wonder how many anti-vaxxers will be scared into resorting to vaccination if they see long term damage in people of similar persuasion (other anti-vaxxers) who have contracted the virus. A few? A lot?
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon May 03, 2021 8:29 pm

art wrote:
Agreed, undesirable long term effects of vaccination need a long term to become apparent.


No, they don't. No vaccine has ever caused a long-term effect that hasn't appeared in the first 6-8 weeks. A side-effect from a vaccine doesn't just drop out of the sky ten years later. There's no biological mechanism for that and it's not how the immune system works. If we waited for that kind of data, we'd hardly have vaccines at all. Fortunately, it's a non-issue.

lightsaber wrote:
Agreed. Now let ys vaccinate the kids. IMHO there is no reason not to add 12 to 15 year olds for Pfizer.

Lightsaber


There doesn't seem to be an FDA or ACIP meeting scheduled for this and I wonder what the delay is. It's been three weeks IIRC since Pfizer submitted their request to expand the EUA.
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 4:36 am

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Agreed. Now let ys vaccinate the kids. IMHO there is no reason not to add 12 to 15 year olds for Pfizer.

Lightsaber


There doesn't seem to be an FDA or ACIP meeting scheduled for this and I wonder what the delay is. It's been three weeks IIRC since Pfizer submitted their request to expand the EUA.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/05/03 ... irus-cases

“Covid-19: F.D.A. to Authorize Pfizer Vaccine for Adolescents by Early Next Week”
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 3:09 pm

aerolimani wrote:
“Covid-19: F.D.A. to Authorize Pfizer Vaccine for Adolescents by Early Next Week”


Finally.
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 3:19 pm

DocLightning wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
“Covid-19: F.D.A. to Authorize Pfizer Vaccine for Adolescents by Early Next Week”


Finally.



Doc , is it a dosing issue that they have to work out. or is there really any other unexpected issues that these MRNA vaccines might have?
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 3:37 pm

Short term side effect are only discovered by testing. The blood clotting problems with some vaccines was totally unexpected until those vaccines were very widely used. Like one case per 100K people or so. Young children are a little biologically different than teen agers, so as I understand it, if in testing 30K older teenagers there are no side effects, they will start testing the younger teenagers and et cetera.
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AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 5:58 pm

I think the FDA giving clearance to Pfizer/BioNTech for 12 to 16 years old next week (if NYT is correct) is not related to medicine/science but supply and demand.

While for a few 12 to 16 years old a covid infections will turn out badly, they are still at less risk then people older than them. As long as demande for vaccine from 30+ year old is higher than supply, vaccinating teenagers doesn't make sense. And by holding up approval, you don't have to discuss it in public. But when you stop having enough 30+ willing to take the vaccine, the equation changes.

Pfizer announced their trial data on March 31 giving the government ample time to review the data. And if there was an urgency to vaccinate teenagers, approval, I think, would have come earlier.

Of course I can be completely wrong. And the fact that authorisation and decline in demand came at a similar time is just coincidence...

Best regards and stay safe,
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 6:19 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This disease causes lung, nerve, and blood vessel damage. The anti-vax are signing up for a long haul...


I wonder how many anti-vaxxers will be scared into resorting to vaccination if they see long term damage in people of similar persuasion (other anti-vaxxers) who have contracted the virus. A few? A lot?


Unless it happens to someone close to them, I doubt any will. Their decision already goes against any logic or reason.
If they've made up their minds despite the amount of data and science already available on both the potential effects of the virus and the vaccine, no amount of additional data will.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
hbernal1
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 7:09 pm

lightsaber wrote:
avier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Last night I had a lovely dinner. But there was no point trying the shrimp, crab, cheesecake, or the chocolate mouse. From my coronavirus exposure, I cannot taste animal fat and those foods were not worth the calories. While the vaccine is helping me recover taste, I'm not there fully.

Since when have you lost your taste sensation? I'm hearing for some it's almost like permanent i.e they haven't got it back since atleast 6 months or 1yr, from the time they first had covid. That includes both taste/smell.

I regained most of my taste. In mid February I discovered I had coronavirus from almost complete loss of taste and smell. Those were my first symptoms. All I could taste for a week was coffee and spices. So I haven't tasted animal fats for 10 weeks.

I also have tennitus from Covid19 and smell loss. The vaccine helps the body heal (3 theories, live virus, "shards of virus", or bodies autoimmune system needs a reset.

It could be permanent.
This disease causes lung, nerve, and blood vessel damage. The anti-vax are signing up for a long haul...

Lightsaber

Unfortunately, there are some who say they trust their "99% immune system" who won't be convinced about the actual long-term effects of Covid or that the vaccine is unlikely to produce its own long-term effects. I'm not sure what the messaging around vaccinations should be to break through and get at least some of the vaccine "skeptics" to get vaccinated.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 7:13 pm

casinterest wrote:
Doc , is it a dosing issue that they have to work out. or is there really any other unexpected issues that these MRNA vaccines might have?


Dosing, side-effects, and efficacy. For example, they are currently doing studies down to age 6mo. It will not surprise me if they find that a lower dose is as effective, but with a more favorable side-effect profile in younger children.
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 7:18 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
While for a few 12 to 16 years old a covid infections will turn out badly, they are still at less risk then people older than them.


I saw a 14yo last month who can't tolerate the taste of food and is losing weight after she had COVID, even though she was never very ill.

But also, the vaccines in use do reduce transmission. The Israelis found ~94% efficacy against asymptomatic infection and found in the small number of "breakthrough" infections in fully-vaccinated people that there was 2-16-fold lower titers. Studies done in the US, UK, and Israel have all shown decreased transmission in household contacts. We do not want our schools, summer camps, and youth sports programs to be mass superspreader events.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 8:55 pm

DocLightning wrote:
AirbusCheerlead wrote:
While for a few 12 to 16 years old a covid infections will turn out badly, they are still at less risk then people older than them.


I saw a 14yo last month who can't tolerate the taste of food and is losing weight after she had COVID, even though she was never very ill.

But also, the vaccines in use do reduce transmission. The Israelis found ~94% efficacy against asymptomatic infection and found in the small number of "breakthrough" infections in fully-vaccinated people that there was 2-16-fold lower titers. Studies done in the US, UK, and Israel have all shown decreased transmission in household contacts. We do not want our schools, summer camps, and youth sports programs to be mass superspreader events.


I wasn't arguing about the benefit of vaccinating teenager nor implying there aren't some really bad cases of covid among them. I was just postulating that there might be a link between supply outstripping demand among the over 16 and the moment the FDA chose (or will chose) to allow the use of Pfizer for teenager under 16.

Where there still adults in the US having trouble finding vaccine appointments, I belive the FDA would have waited a few more weeks before extending vaccine eligibility to those between 12 and 16. Not because they would feel that they could learn more from looking at the data from the Pfizer trial but because vaccinating those over 30 and 40 before teenager will do more to reduce infections, transmission, hospitalizations and death.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
hbernal1
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 9:25 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
AirbusCheerlead wrote:
While for a few 12 to 16 years old a covid infections will turn out badly, they are still at less risk then people older than them.


I saw a 14yo last month who can't tolerate the taste of food and is losing weight after she had COVID, even though she was never very ill.

But also, the vaccines in use do reduce transmission. The Israelis found ~94% efficacy against asymptomatic infection and found in the small number of "breakthrough" infections in fully-vaccinated people that there was 2-16-fold lower titers. Studies done in the US, UK, and Israel have all shown decreased transmission in household contacts. We do not want our schools, summer camps, and youth sports programs to be mass superspreader events.


I wasn't arguing about the benefit of vaccinating teenager nor implying there aren't some really bad cases of covid among them. I was just postulating that there might be a link between supply outstripping demand among the over 16 and the moment the FDA chose (or will chose) to allow the use of Pfizer for teenager under 16.

Where there still adults in the US having trouble finding vaccine appointments, I belive the FDA would have waited a few more weeks before extending vaccine eligibility to those between 12 and 16. Not because they would feel that they could learn more from looking at the data from the Pfizer trial but because vaccinating those over 30 and 40 before teenager will do more to reduce infections, transmission, hospitalizations and death.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

It's important to remember that the objective is and should always be to vaccinate as many people as possible. Vaccine uptake is starting to slow down considerably in the US when despite being at only 44% vaccinated with 1 dose - this is not good news if the country is trying to achieve herd immunity. Since Pfizer has very favorable trial data on teenagers, it shouldn't be a surprise that the FDA is looking into extending the EUA to also include those between ages 12-16.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 10:54 pm

DocLightning wrote:
AirbusCheerlead wrote:
While for a few 12 to 16 years old a covid infections will turn out badly, they are still at less risk then people older than them.


I saw a 14yo last month who can't tolerate the taste of food and is losing weight after she had COVID, even though she was never very ill.

But also, the vaccines in use do reduce transmission. The Israelis found ~94% efficacy against asymptomatic infection and found in the small number of "breakthrough" infections in fully-vaccinated people that there was 2-16-fold lower titers. Studies done in the US, UK, and Israel have all shown decreased transmission in household contacts. We do not want our schools, summer camps, and youth sports programs to be mass superspreader events.

We do not want kids spreading. They need those camps and other social activities. To do so safely needs vaccine. If I could, I would vaccinate both of my kids with a mRNA today. I rather like the Moderna plan of a combined flu/covid booster (sa.e with NovaVax).

The only way we get to "herd immunity" is if the kids are vaccinated. Hopefully, that is enough (with annual boosters).

Lightsaber

late edit: There is a neighborhood kid with inverted taste (everything tastes horrid). I feel for the kids and parents.
6 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 04, 2021 11:01 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
I wasn't arguing about the benefit of vaccinating teenager nor implying there aren't some really bad cases of covid among them. I was just postulating that there might be a link between supply outstripping demand among the over 16 and the moment the FDA chose (or will chose) to allow the use of Pfizer for teenager under 16.

Where there still adults in the US having trouble finding vaccine appointments, I belive the FDA would have waited a few more weeks before extending vaccine eligibility to those between 12 and 16. Not because they would feel that they could learn more from looking at the data from the Pfizer trial but because vaccinating those over 30 and 40 before teenager will do more to reduce infections, transmission, hospitalizations and death.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas


I don't think that factored into it. First, the government just isn't that coordinated. But second, an EUA does not constitute a mandate for teenagers to recieve the vaccine. After all, the original EUA was for 16+ and yet for quite some time, a large chunk of the approved population did not have access. Ultimately, it will be the CDC, ACIP, and local health departments that will make the decision to offer the vaccine for the 12-15 age group.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
TC957
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed May 05, 2021 7:49 am

Reports last weekend that James Hogan, ex Etihad CEO, tried to sneak into the UK without quarantining. He allegedly used his Australian passport to fly AUH - GVA, stayed a couple of days, then used BA and his UK passport to fly GVA - LHR. Someone grassed his travel plans up to the authorities and he got nabbed at LHR.
The UAE is currently in the red zone for covid rules in the UK.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed May 05, 2021 6:18 pm

Health Canada has authorized the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for adolescents as young as 12:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/health ... -1.6014551

Health Canada offered parents anxious about their unvaccinated children some fresh hope today by clearing the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for use in people as young as 12 years old.

After reviewing clinical trial data submitted by the New York-based company last month, regulators have determined the mRNA shot is safe to use in people 12 to 15 years of age. The previous age cutoff for the vaccine was 16.

The Pfizer vaccine is the first product to be authorized for use in this younger age category. The three other products authorized for use in Canada — AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Moderna — can be given only to people over the age of 18 for now.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu May 06, 2021 11:53 am

Francoflier wrote:
art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This disease causes lung, nerve, and blood vessel damage. The anti-vax are signing up for a long haul...


I wonder how many anti-vaxxers will be scared into resorting to vaccination if they see long term damage in people of similar persuasion (other anti-vaxxers) who have contracted the virus. A few? A lot?


Unless it happens to someone close to them, I doubt any will. Their decision already goes against any logic or reason.
If they've made up their minds despite the amount of data and science already available on both the potential effects of the virus and the vaccine, no amount of additional data will.

The problem is, there seems to be a "club" on long haul symptoms. Mine are minor, so I don't mind talking about it. As soon as I did dozens fo people came out and told me, but most of their friends and coworkers wouldn't know.

The anti-vaxers are making a risk decision going the wrong way by several orders of magnitude. I'm not into scaring people, I'm into giving them facts. What is insane is how many won't get vaccinated. I was asking people who were and weren't vaccinated and I was shocked to find everyone I know in one community wasn't vaccinated. Rhoo Rhoo...

Lightsaber
6 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
hbernal1
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu May 06, 2021 5:25 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
art wrote:

I wonder how many anti-vaxxers will be scared into resorting to vaccination if they see long term damage in people of similar persuasion (other anti-vaxxers) who have contracted the virus. A few? A lot?


Unless it happens to someone close to them, I doubt any will. Their decision already goes against any logic or reason.
If they've made up their minds despite the amount of data and science already available on both the potential effects of the virus and the vaccine, no amount of additional data will.

The problem is, there seems to be a "club" on long haul symptoms. Mine are minor, so I don't mind talking about it. As soon as I did dozens fo people came out and told me, but most of their friends and coworkers wouldn't know.

The anti-vaxers are making a risk decision going the wrong way by several orders of magnitude. I'm not into scaring people, I'm into giving them facts. What is insane is how many won't get vaccinated. I was asking people who were and weren't vaccinated and I was shocked to find everyone I know in one community wasn't vaccinated. Rhoo Rhoo...

Lightsaber

The main issue regarding anti-vaxxers is that they don't really need to convince people that they're "right" in a sense, but to sow enough seeds of doubt to make people hesitant and not want the vaccine. And of course, the more herd immunity is delayed, the more time the virus gets to mutate and become more powerful in resisting vaccine immunity.

I'm also quite shocked with the ease with which some "anti-vaxxers" can spread their misinformation and have it go completely unchallenged, which I think adds to how a lot of the conspiracies spread. It's easy to "just ask questions" if you don't have to answer any.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu May 06, 2021 11:33 pm

DocLightning wrote:
AirbusCheerlead wrote:
I wasn't arguing about the benefit of vaccinating teenager nor implying there aren't some really bad cases of covid among them. I was just postulating that there might be a link between supply outstripping demand among the over 16 and the moment the FDA chose (or will chose) to allow the use of Pfizer for teenager under 16.

Where there still adults in the US having trouble finding vaccine appointments, I belive the FDA would have waited a few more weeks before extending vaccine eligibility to those between 12 and 16. Not because they would feel that they could learn more from looking at the data from the Pfizer trial but because vaccinating those over 30 and 40 before teenager will do more to reduce infections, transmission, hospitalizations and death.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas


I don't think that factored into it. First, the government just isn't that coordinated. But second, an EUA does not constitute a mandate for teenagers to recieve the vaccine. After all, the original EUA was for 16+ and yet for quite some time, a large chunk of the approved population did not have access. Ultimately, it will be the CDC, ACIP, and local health departments that will make the decision to offer the vaccine for the 12-15 age group.

It’s also not a consideration because demand no longer outstrips supply in the US. Anyone can get a vaccine if they want, often without an appointment.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri May 07, 2021 1:18 pm

DocLightning wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
“Covid-19: F.D.A. to Authorize Pfizer Vaccine for Adolescents by Early Next Week”


Finally.

This frustrates me about the FDA. If we know they are going to authorize it next week, why not authorize it now? FDA foot dragging has been a constant in this pandemic.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri May 07, 2021 1:30 pm

I'm worried about the release of the patents slowing vaccine production. Yes, slowing. The whole point of patents is to speed up information sharing knowing your technology is protected by the patent. mRNA vaccines require a lot of insight to produce. You could have the recipe and patent protection and still have horrible yields. Suddenly they the producers will clam up. They spent a fortune developing the technology over years. They don't want to give away their business.

Late edit to expand:
Moderna already said they won't enforce patents (back in October) during the pandemic
https://news.yahoo.com/moderna-raises-2 ... 04627.html

Moderna, which said in October it would not enforce patents on its vaccine during the pandemic, noted the lack of companies able to rapidly scale up complex manufacturing of a similar vaccine to meet surging global demand.

"They will have to go run a clinical trial, get the data, get the product approved and scale manufacturing. This does not happen in 6 or 12 or 18 months," Moderna Chief Executive Stephane Bancel said on a post-earnings conference call.


My opinion is there have been a shortage of degreed manufacturing engineers to support the vaccine ramp up. This talent won't be shared. I have a chemical engineering friend supporting one of the vaccine companies and his contract prevents him from jumping ship for years (to say the least, not a zero hour contract).

I'm not sure the benefit of the announcement. When I do strategy of who protects what, I see less vaccine production due to this announcement, not more.

Lightsaber
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri May 07, 2021 1:38 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
AirbusCheerlead wrote:
I wasn't arguing about the benefit of vaccinating teenager nor implying there aren't some really bad cases of covid among them. I was just postulating that there might be a link between supply outstripping demand among the over 16 and the moment the FDA chose (or will chose) to allow the use of Pfizer for teenager under 16.

Where there still adults in the US having trouble finding vaccine appointments, I belive the FDA would have waited a few more weeks before extending vaccine eligibility to those between 12 and 16. Not because they would feel that they could learn more from looking at the data from the Pfizer trial but because vaccinating those over 30 and 40 before teenager will do more to reduce infections, transmission, hospitalizations and death.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas


I don't think that factored into it. First, the government just isn't that coordinated. But second, an EUA does not constitute a mandate for teenagers to recieve the vaccine. After all, the original EUA was for 16+ and yet for quite some time, a large chunk of the approved population did not have access. Ultimately, it will be the CDC, ACIP, and local health departments that will make the decision to offer the vaccine for the 12-15 age group.

It’s also not a consideration because demand no longer outstrips supply in the US. Anyone can get a vaccine if they want, often without an appointment.

In Los Angeles, supposedly a high demand area, for 12 days same day appointments have been possible. It has effectively been walk up appointments for 10 days (officially only for a few, but if you had a smart phone you could walk up, make the appointment then, and get the shot within 20 minutes).

It has been very frustrating as a parent unable to vaccinate my children when the trials went so perfectly the vaccine should have been approved faster. Canada approved it faster!
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-cana ... 24615.html

The higher the fraction of the population vaccinated, the safer everyone is; transmission is slowed and hospital beds are not occupied. Is the news of Covid19 hitting children exaggerated? I don't know as it is obvious the total counts are off by an order or two of magnitude.
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronaviru ... -in-mumbai

There are 75 million children in the USA. So far only 16 and 17 year olds could be vaccinated.

There is a part of the population that wants vaccines and a part that doesn't. Because so many do not, we need the children vaccinated to achieve a herd immunity. I modeled the virus and we could have a coast to coast outbreak with the minor number of vaccinated we have easy. The vaccinated are safe, but not the unvaccinated. So let's get the whole family safe.

Lightsaber
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par13del
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri May 07, 2021 4:28 pm

So those hesitant parents will allow their kids to be vaccinated or will it be mandatory for them to attend school?
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri May 07, 2021 5:39 pm

par13del wrote:
So those hesitant parents will allow their kids to be vaccinated or will it be mandatory for them to attend school?

Until there are vaccines with full approval, and not just approved for emergency use, I don’t believe they can be made mandatory for students.

I remember reading that in an article, but I can’t seem to find it now.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri May 07, 2021 6:00 pm

Are some fellow A-Neters inderested in discussing Biden's proposal for an IP waiver?

If so is this thread the right place? Or should we open a new one?

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri May 07, 2021 7:13 pm

aerolimani wrote:
par13del wrote:
So those hesitant parents will allow their kids to be vaccinated or will it be mandatory for them to attend school?

Until there are vaccines with full approval, and not just approved for emergency use, I don’t believe they can be made mandatory for students.
.


They can and have. Multiple universities have already announced that students will be required to be vaccinated absent a valid medical exemption to be on campus next fall. It's a bit more complicated for public schools, because it typically takes a Public Health directive, which may need to be backed up by legislation. But there is no reason an EUA vaccine cannot be enforced. Remember, nobody is forcing anyone to get vaccinated. They are requiring it for going to college.

Moreover, both Pfizer/BNT and Moderna are seeking full licensure of their products, which will almost certainly be granted before the Fall.

lightsaber wrote:
It has been very frustrating as a parent unable to vaccinate my children when the trials went so perfectly the vaccine should have been approved faster. Canada approved it faster!


Tell me about it. And I tried to sign up my son for a trial but none of the manufacturers are doing kids' trials in the SF Bay Area. WTF?
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri May 07, 2021 9:49 pm

DocLightning wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
par13del wrote:
So those hesitant parents will allow their kids to be vaccinated or will it be mandatory for them to attend school?

Until there are vaccines with full approval, and not just approved for emergency use, I don’t believe they can be made mandatory for students.


They can and have. Multiple universities have already announced that students will be required to be vaccinated absent a valid medical exemption to be on campus next fall. It's a bit more complicated for public schools, because it typically takes a Public Health directive, which may need to be backed up by legislation. But there is no reason an EUA vaccine cannot be enforced. Remember, nobody is forcing anyone to get vaccinated. They are requiring it for going to college.

Moreover, both Pfizer/BNT and Moderna are seeking full licensure of their products, which will almost certainly be granted before the Fall.

I was thinking more of public schools, yes. University/college, and private primary/secondary schools are another matter, of course.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri May 07, 2021 10:28 pm

DocLightning wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
par13del wrote:
So those hesitant parents will allow their kids to be vaccinated or will it be mandatory for them to attend school?

Until there are vaccines with full approval, and not just approved for emergency use, I don’t believe they can be made mandatory for students.
.


They can and have. Multiple universities have already announced that students will be required to be vaccinated absent a valid medical exemption to be on campus next fall. It's a bit more complicated for public schools, because it typically takes a Public Health directive, which may need to be backed up by legislation. But there is no reason an EUA vaccine cannot be enforced. Remember, nobody is forcing anyone to get vaccinated. They are requiring it for going to college.

Moreover, both Pfizer/BNT and Moderna are seeking full licensure of their products, which will almost certainly be granted before the Fall.

lightsaber wrote:
It has been very frustrating as a parent unable to vaccinate my children when the trials went so perfectly the vaccine should have been approved faster. Canada approved it faster!


Tell me about it. And I tried to sign up my son for a trial but none of the manufacturers are doing kids' trials in the SF Bay Area. WTF?

University is one thing but what about those in the age of compulsory education.
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