We are told that lockdowns work, WHO, PAHO, EU, EMA, CDC, etc all touted the "efficacy" of this approach to Covid-19, why is India refusing to place this tool in its tool kit?
Lockdowns are a rich country's 'solution'. A nation like India, home to dozens or hundreds of millions of poor workers who rely on a daily wage to fend off starvation, that is simply not possible as the cure would be worse than the disease.
In a way, given the population of India, its density and rampant poverty and scarce access to basic hygiene for millions, I'm afraid this disaster was going to happen no matter what.
I am surprised it took so long if anything. It seems the first wave didn't do much headway into the population. Not sure whether some sort of prevalent immunity to the initial variants delayed the outbreak until one that could weasel its way through it appeared or whether it was just dumb luck, but whatever the case may be, it eventually found a way.
There is no way to prevent the virus from circulating in a community unless you hermetically shut said community from the rest of the World durably. You can try and delay it and control the outbreak so as to allow the healthcare system to keep up (and the virus will incessantly try to mutate around this), but one way or the other, the only way out of this is through building immunity. That's going to happen either through exposure or, preferably, artificial immunization.
I am amazed that some nations are seemingly not putting much effort in vaccination drives under the pretense that they have a good control on the virus. The thing is, at best you are isolating yourself from the planet and hiding in a hole living in fear for the long term, at worst the virus eventually finds a way through to a largely antibody-deprived and vulnerable population and catches you pants down.
I'll phrase another way. Lockdowns hit the economy hard. Every time there is a lockdown, there is bounce back, but not fully. People who lost money do not spend.
In India, more of the population lives payday to payday (often day to day). There is no eviction suppression as in rich countries as that would collapse an already fragile banking system. (It will do permanent damage in the USA.)
I happen to agree it was surprising the first wave was so mild. Lockdowns in a slum where "hot bunking" was occuring (night shift slept during the day and day shift slept at night) is not exactly safe. People must go back to the villages.
The only way to stop this is extremely high vaccination rates, as you note in different words. While there will be people who are vaccinated who get sick, their impact on the hospital system will be reduced and more importantly, I've posted numerous links in this thread on how vaccines slow transmission. If India was dealing with a monsoon instead of a Tsunami, it wouldn't be half as tragic.
Wikipedia does an adequate summary of how to model infectious spread.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathemati ... us_disease
The goal is to increase the immune population q, with the critical immune threashold qc=1-1/Ro
With a disease with an Ro close to 4 and vaccine effectiveness < 100%, qc is about 75%, if vaccine effectiveness is 90% (mRNA), that means over 85% must be vaccinated.
I really hope the Un-vaccinated realize what they are signing up for. Last night I had a lovely dinner. But there was no point trying the shrimp, crab, cheesecake, or the chocolate mouse. From my coronavirus exposure, I cannot taste animal fat and those foods were not worth the calories. While the vaccine is helping me recover taste, I'm not there fully.
I know several with corona virus induced heart attacks. Not people on the web, but people in my social circles before lockdown. Two of my daughters' classmates died of Covid19 (children) who seemed quite healthy to me (sad case, father and both elementary school age sons died leaving a very grief stricken wife).
So since enough adults won't be responsible to slow community spread, it is time to vaccinate the children. The Pfizer trial of 12 to 15 year olds went well.
Applied in Europe last week:https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pfizer- ... on-2425389
In study of 2200 adolescents, vaccinated ZERO cases. 18 cases in unvaccinated. That is statistically significant. But why is the approval taking so long? I *really* want to vaccinate my 10 year old (we must wait for more data) and my 12 year old. Approval is expected by FDA in May (I haven't heard a timeline for the EU):https://abc11.com/pfizer-12-15-vaccine- ... /10464173/https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/pfize ... ved-in-may
I've heard rumors that the 6 through 11 study could complete in July. Sigh... too late for us to travel. The infants through age 5 I've heard September.
While we need to vaccinate the world, we also just need to stop it here to open the economy. We cannot really help each other until our society is functioning normally again.
6 months without TV. The best decision of my life.