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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 08, 2021 3:56 pm

A telling sign of how large the problem of vaccine hesitancy is, at least in the USA. States scaling back their requests for vaccine supply, some to as little as 10% of their allotment. :shock:

https://apnews.com/article/ad578143ffb2 ... 200ff594bb
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 08, 2021 4:30 pm

The headline focuses on the USA, but in the article, it’s good to see some efforts being made to break down the barriers of vaccine nationalism, generally speaking.

Covid: Macron calls on US to drop vaccine export bans https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57039362
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 08, 2021 4:40 pm

Nice dig at Biden from Macron : stop export bans before talking about waiving patents.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 08, 2021 7:14 pm

Aesma wrote:
Nice dig at Biden from Macron : stop export bans before talking about waiving patents.

Given that the mínimum estimated time to start up an mRNA vaccine production facility is one year, waiving patents doesn’t do much for the global effort. Maybe the J&J vaccine could be produced more rapidly.

But really, the other article I posted seems to indicate that vaccine uptake is slowing waaaay down in parts of the USA. I expect a little bump in numbers when they start doing children in earnest, but generally, it looks like it’s time for the USA to start exporting. The USA especially needs its immediate neighbours, Canada and Mexico, to get caught up.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 08, 2021 10:06 pm

aerolimani wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Nice dig at Biden from Macron : stop export bans before talking about waiving patents.

Given that the mínimum estimated time to start up an mRNA vaccine production facility is one year, waiving patents doesn’t do much for the global effort. Maybe the J&J vaccine could be produced more rapidly.

But really, the other article I posted seems to indicate that vaccine uptake is slowing waaaay down in parts of the USA. I expect a little bump in numbers when they start doing children in earnest, but generally, it looks like it’s time for the USA to start exporting. The USA especially needs its immediate neighbours, Canada and Mexico, to get caught up.

The US is already starting to export vaccines; Pfizer is now supplying Canada via their US facilities, not from their EU facility:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada ... -1.6010321
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat May 08, 2021 10:39 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Nice dig at Biden from Macron : stop export bans before talking about waiving patents.

Given that the mínimum estimated time to start up an mRNA vaccine production facility is one year, waiving patents doesn’t do much for the global effort. Maybe the J&J vaccine could be produced more rapidly.

But really, the other article I posted seems to indicate that vaccine uptake is slowing waaaay down in parts of the USA. I expect a little bump in numbers when they start doing children in earnest, but generally, it looks like it’s time for the USA to start exporting. The USA especially needs its immediate neighbours, Canada and Mexico, to get caught up.

The US is already starting to export vaccines; Pfizer is now supplying Canada via their US facilities, not from their EU facility:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada ... -1.6010321

That’s great news! I don’t know how I missed that. Thanks for sharing.

Indeed, though, there are many other parts of the world that also need a lot of help.
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 09, 2021 5:07 am

aerolimani wrote:
ThePointblank wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Given that the mínimum estimated time to start up an mRNA vaccine production facility is one year, waiving patents doesn’t do much for the global effort. Maybe the J&J vaccine could be produced more rapidly.

But really, the other article I posted seems to indicate that vaccine uptake is slowing waaaay down in parts of the USA. I expect a little bump in numbers when they start doing children in earnest, but generally, it looks like it’s time for the USA to start exporting. The USA especially needs its immediate neighbours, Canada and Mexico, to get caught up.

The US is already starting to export vaccines; Pfizer is now supplying Canada via their US facilities, not from their EU facility:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada ... -1.6010321

That’s great news! I don’t know how I missed that. Thanks for sharing.

Indeed, though, there are many other parts of the world that also need a lot of help.

The way I understand it is there is no formal "export ban" but rather vaccine doses produced using Defense Production Act resources cannot be exported...which many of the initial doses ordered by the government were produced under DPA, so de facto export ban. But with many of those orders now having been fulfilled, there’s more production bandwidth now for exportable doses.
 
marcelh
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 09, 2021 6:34 am

ThePointblank wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Nice dig at Biden from Macron : stop export bans before talking about waiving patents.

Given that the mínimum estimated time to start up an mRNA vaccine production facility is one year, waiving patents doesn’t do much for the global effort. Maybe the J&J vaccine could be produced more rapidly.

But really, the other article I posted seems to indicate that vaccine uptake is slowing waaaay down in parts of the USA. I expect a little bump in numbers when they start doing children in earnest, but generally, it looks like it’s time for the USA to start exporting. The USA especially needs its immediate neighbours, Canada and Mexico, to get caught up.

The US is already starting to export vaccines; Pfizer is now supplying Canada via their US facilities, not from their EU facility:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada ... -1.6010321


How many doses have been exported so far by the US?

By the end of April, the EU had exported about 148 million doses, see https://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/japan/96794/node/96794_en

” The figures tell the tale: From 30 January until 27 April* 2021, EU Member States approved export authorisation requests for 148 million doses to 44 destinations, including to countries with their own production capacities, high vaccination rates and a less severe epidemiological situation. Of 779 requests for export authorisations received during this time, only one has been rejected.”
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 09, 2021 9:45 pm

Did the UK reopen too quickly/strongly ? Rt is reaching 1 any minute now :

Image
 
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BaconButty
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 09, 2021 10:28 pm

Aesma wrote:
Did the UK reopen too quickly/strongly ? Rt is reaching 1 any minute now :

Image


Not sure of the source you're using, but the UK government's latest figure is 0.8-1.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate

This is based on our surveillance testing, known as pillar 4 in government speak. The figures for Pillar 2 testing are better, and indicate infections at the bottom end of that range. Pillar 2 is a mix of PCR tests done at the request of people with symptoms, and lateral flow tests, done for the asymptotic, for example schoolchildren.

Having said that, the expectation always was that infections would rise somewhat as we opened up, and I think it's proved a pleasant surprise it hasn't happened yet. The other indicators, the numbers in hospital, on ventilation and deaths are all going down nicely. In fact, we've probably just reached a milestone of deaths getting down into single figures. It's hard to be certain because of the way the deaths are recorded, there's something of a lag.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The fly in the ointment is the Indian variant. Our bumbling PM was slow to stop travel from South Asia, and there's now clusters amongst returning desi people in Bolton and London.

In terms of opening up, Schools opened in early March, and all shops mid April. They've done it 5 weeks apart as that is how long it takes to assess the impact of a change. The next big one is May 17th iirc, when pubs and restaurants reopen indoors. I expect cases to rise slightly then.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun May 09, 2021 11:25 pm

BaconButty wrote:
The fly in the ointment is the Indian variant. Our bumbling PM was slow to stop travel from South Asia, and there's now clusters amongst returning desi people in Bolton and London.

In terms of opening up, Schools opened in early March, and all shops mid April. They've done it 5 weeks apart as that is how long it takes to assess the impact of a change. The next big one is May 17th iirc, when pubs and restaurants reopen indoors. I expect cases to rise slightly then.


As to a situation in which the R0 rises, I wonder what mechanism can be used to attribute what proportion of that is due to easing social mixing rules and what proportion due to the appearance of more transmissible variants. There are 3 factors at play, aren't there - variable transmissibility rates for different mutants, various transmissibility rates for different social behaviours, rising vaccination numbers.

'desi people'? Don't know the expression.
 
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BaconButty
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon May 10, 2021 12:17 am

art wrote:
As to a situation in which the R0 rises, I wonder what mechanism can be used to attribute what proportion of that is due to easing social mixing rules and what proportion due to the appearance of more transmissible variants. There are 3 factors at play, aren't there - variable transmissibility rates for different mutants, various transmissibility rates for different social behaviours, rising vaccination numbers.

'desi people'? Don't know the expression.


I'd be interested to know the answer to the first question myself. But Desi means people from India, Pakistan or Bangladesh - not sure about Sri Lanka. I hope it's not considered offensive. Apologies if it is.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon May 10, 2021 1:09 am

From Wiki

Desi (/ˈdeɪsi, ˈdɛsi/; Hindustani: [d̪eːsi]) are the people, cultures, and products of the Indian subcontinent and their diaspora, derived from Sanskrit देश (deśá), meaning "land, country".
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon May 10, 2021 1:40 am

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/8ca85 ... 4e4936bd4a
Phone companies in Japan say they will be placing restrictions against vaccine appointment hotlines, in order to avoid the telephone network being overcrowded and affecting emergency service call for police and fire department
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 11, 2021 11:28 am

NovaVax is delayed. Now September:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... llout.html

For many wealthier countries/blocks (UK, EU, US) that is later than the planned vaccination strategy.

BaconButty wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Did the UK reopen too quickly/strongly ? Rt is reaching 1 any minute now :

Image


Not sure of the source you're using, but the UK government's latest figure is 0.8-1.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate

This is based on our surveillance testing, known as pillar 4 in government speak. The figures for Pillar 2 testing are better, and indicate infections at the bottom end of that range. Pillar 2 is a mix of PCR tests done at the request of people with symptoms, and lateral flow tests, done for the asymptotic, for example schoolchildren.

Having said that, the expectation always was that infections would rise somewhat as we opened up, and I think it's proved a pleasant surprise it hasn't happened yet. The other indicators, the numbers in hospital, on ventilation and deaths are all going down nicely. In fact, we've probably just reached a milestone of deaths getting down into single figures. It's hard to be certain because of the way the deaths are recorded, there's something of a lag.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The fly in the ointment is the Indian variant. Our bumbling PM was slow to stop travel from South Asia, and there's now clusters amongst returning desi people in Bolton and London.

In terms of opening up, Schools opened in early March, and all shops mid April. They've done it 5 weeks apart as that is how long it takes to assess the impact of a change. The next big one is May 17th iirc, when pubs and restaurants reopen indoors. I expect cases to rise slightly then.

The UK wisely opened up in phases. It is opening up rate vs. vaccination rate (both 1st and 2nd doses). The vaccination rate has slowed quite a bit to 0.68 doses per hundred (vs. say France at a close 0.66 or USA which has fallen to 0.63). So that might hold up opening.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

To all (not necessarily a reply):
The world needs vaccine supply. There just isn't enough. What I have noticed is once a third of the population is vaccinated (UK), the transmission is slowed (not stopped, but significantly slowed). The UK also having 52.25% of the total population 1st jabbed is helping slow the spread. 1st jabbed as less likely to pass it on as numerous links I've already posted in this thread. Just one dose of AZ or Phizer reduces household transmission 40% to 60% (call it by half): https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-05- ... ssion.html

So while the UK might get a case Ro above 1 (growth) as they open up, it will be at a trivial rate. I'm bummed they won't have NovaVax soon (fill and finish was supposed to be happening now, obviously not...), as they UK (among many others) just needs more quantity. Variants will happen and the only real protection is vaccines.

Lightsaber
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue May 11, 2021 3:52 pm

The FDA has approved the Pfizer vaccine for kids 12-15.
Hopefully by Thursday the CDC will have approved it

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 035847001/
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed May 12, 2021 10:36 am

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ ... 021-05-12/
Honduras, which currently have diplomatic relationship with Taiwan instead of China, have said that they would be willing to setup diplomatic representative in China in order to obtain vaccines, describing it is for the best interest of Honduran, while they have also asked Taiwan to help ask the US to help.

https://www.barrons.com/news/honduras-s ... 14?tesla=y
Honduras have also commented that, El Salvor, which switched their recognition from Taiwan to China 3 years ago, is willling to help Honduras "break the geopolitical blockade" and help get vaccine to them from China

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-05-12/
As a response, China urge relevant countries follow "One China Principle", while Taiwan condemn the move as disregarding humanitarian needs
 
T4thH
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed May 12, 2021 12:09 pm

"Main German scientist" regarding COVID, Christian Drosten:
During next year, everyone will receive an immunity against COVID-19, in one of two forms. COVID-19 and the new variants will get endemic.

- You will get vaccinated
- Who is not vaccinated, will be infected with COVID-19.

...So as said, everyone will receive an immunity next year...I got my first shot with Biontec/Pfizer last Friday, I prefer to be one of the first grpup.

So everyone, who believes to be allowed to play "Lutscher" and hopes to get through without vaccination, as protected by herd immunity of others...LOL.

Source is in German from 11-May, use a translator, implemented in your browser.
https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Drosten-Ungeimpfte-werden-sich-infizieren-article22549310.html
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed May 12, 2021 1:58 pm

T4thH wrote:
"Main German scientist" regarding COVID, Christian Drosten:
During next year, everyone will receive an immunity against COVID-19, in one of two forms. COVID-19 and the new variants will get endemic.

- You will get vaccinated
- Who is not vaccinated, will be infected with COVID-19.

...So as said, everyone will receive an immunity next year...I got my first shot with Biontec/Pfizer last Friday, I prefer to be one of the first grpup.

So everyone, who believes to be allowed to play "Lutscher" and hopes to get through without vaccination, as protected by herd immunity of others...LOL.

Source is in German from 11-May, use a translator, implemented in your browser.
https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Drosten-Ungeimpfte-werden-sich-infizieren-article22549310.html


"The virus will spread undetected under a blanket of immune protection." mean no herd immunity.
 
T4thH
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed May 12, 2021 2:48 pm

c933103 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
"Main German scientist" regarding COVID, Christian Drosten:
During next year, everyone will receive an immunity against COVID-19, in one of two forms. COVID-19 and the new variants will get endemic.

- You will get vaccinated
- Who is not vaccinated, will be infected with COVID-19.

...So as said, everyone will receive an immunity next year...I got my first shot with Biontec/Pfizer last Friday, I prefer to be one of the first grpup.

So everyone, who believes to be allowed to play "Lutscher" and hopes to get through without vaccination, as protected by herd immunity of others...LOL.

Source is in German from 11-May, use a translator, implemented in your browser.
https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/Drosten-Ungeimpfte-werden-sich-infizieren-article22549310.html




"The virus will spread undetected under a blanket of immune protection." mean no herd immunity.

Yes, this is right, there will be no herd immunity. But this was already feared, when the new British variant has started to spread in Germany in February of this year and got really fast the prevailing form. The new variants are too virulent. I have already stated this somewhere here in this forum around that time, that there will be no herd immunty; sorry but I am not willed to search all my own posts here, I am just not willed to waste my time.

I am really sorry for all, who are not able to get a vaccination regarding health or so or who are too young e.g.. I hope the best for them.

All others, who have freely decided not to get vaccinated...they will get it, they will not escape. But it is their decision. It will be the time, the sociaty will not any more take care of them.

So according last numbers and expectatoiions, in Germany, everyone, who is willed to get vaccinated, can get the first shot around end of July, latest mid of August. All children will most likely get the first vaccination before start of the new school year.
So latest in Oct-2021, everyone, who is willed, will be fully vaccinated (this is my expectation).

Overall, for Germany, N-TV is perhaps the best source for COVID-19 related news.
https://www.n-tv.de/
 
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aerolimani
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed May 12, 2021 10:57 pm

More frequent side-effects reported mixing Pfizer and Oxford Covid jabs, study suggests

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... y-suggests

Mixing COVID-19 vaccines appears safe — but no data on whether it works, U.K. study says

https://globalnews.ca/news/7854981/mixi ... ines-safe/

New preliminary data suggests that mixing Pfizer-BioNtech and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines is safe, but it’s still too soon to tell whether combining doses will provide protection against the virus.

The early results from a University of Oxford study found that mixing the two vaccines may increase the frequency of mild to moderate side effects. But the symptoms, referred to in the study as “reactogenicity,” were short-lived — lasting no longer than a few days — and there were no hospitalizations or other safety concerns.

“Whether or not this will relate to actually an improved immune response, we don’t know yet,” Dr. Matthew Snape, chief investigator on the trial and associate professor in General Paediatrics of Vaccinology at the University of Oxford, told reporters during a briefing on Tuesday.

“We’ll be finding out those results in a few weeks time.”


Two slightly different takes. Overall, from this reporting, I read that mixing is not necessarily dangerous, but seems to cause more reactions of a severity which could cause more people to need to stay home a day or three. As to efficacy, we're still a few weeks away.

Overall positive news, though. Mixing is not dangerous. It just might be uncomfortable/inconvenient for more people. Also, it sounds like mixing might be better for older populations who tend to be less prone to adverse reactions. Younger populations might be better sticking to the same vaccine.

Certainly, mixing provides A LOT more flexibility. I have my fingers crossed that efficacy results will be positive. I've read that mixing vaccines can often, based on past evidence, actually provide greater immune protection than sticking with just one type. Fingers crossed for this! I would risk some fever and ache for the chance at better protection.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu May 13, 2021 12:53 pm

Issues are being reported about further supplies of the J&J vaccine, to the point where states are being told they aren't getting a shipment next week:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/1 ... ine-487070

States won’t receive any doses of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine next week, the latest sign of how production problems are hurting output of the single-dose shot, according to four sources with knowledge.

White House officials told governors on a private call Tuesday that new supply of the J&J shot wasn't immediately available for ordering, POLITICO has learned. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the federal government would ship out J&J doses through federal distribution channels, such as those for pharmacy chains and community health centers.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu May 13, 2021 2:19 pm

Any details on Pediatric version of Pfizer vaccine? Is it different vaccine or same as adult version administered at a lower dose?
 
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par13del
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu May 13, 2021 2:27 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
Issues are being reported about further supplies of the J&J vaccine, to the point where states are being told they aren't getting a shipment next week:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/1 ... ine-487070

States won’t receive any doses of Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine next week, the latest sign of how production problems are hurting output of the single-dose shot, according to four sources with knowledge.

White House officials told governors on a private call Tuesday that new supply of the J&J shot wasn't immediately available for ordering, POLITICO has learned. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the federal government would ship out J&J doses through federal distribution channels, such as those for pharmacy chains and community health centers.

Since a number of states are already telling the Feds to slow down their delivery of vaccines because the uptake is declining, the effect of this may be minimal.
Since J&J had production contamination issues, this should be expected.
 
art
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu May 13, 2021 2:34 pm

A couple of things... firstly I track England (not UK) vaccination data so all data quoted relate just to England. The UK government has a policy of giving a second dose 77 days after the first. 77 days ago first doses reached 11.4 million. Today second doses reached 15.9 million. Supply uncertainty could account for the second dose figure being substantially ahead of schedule. Additionally a preponderence of supply of AZ vaccine (rather than Pfizer or Moderna) could mean that older people are being vaccinated well ahead of schedule because they are at acceptable risk for AZ (clotting problem for the younger). Are the premature second doses indicative of Pfizer or Moderna being in short supply? Today the rolling 14 day average for first jabs stands at ~100K and for second jabs ~300K. Or might it be that there is a problem with vaccine hesitancy being encountered in younger people?

Secondly in UK surveys indicate that there is a much higher rate of vaccine hesitancy with those of Afro-Carribean and Indian sub-continental family origin. I see this as a problem because a lot of people who perform a caring role (eg helping older people in need of help) are of families in the groups mentioned. Should a very much more infectious or virulent strain of the virus emerge, I suspect that those that the UK government took the most care to protect (the elderly) will be put at avoidable risk.

Source is Office of National Statistics:

- more than 9 in 10 (93%) adults reported positive sentiment towards the vaccine, while 7% of adults reported vaccine hesitancy

- around 1 in 3 (30%) Black or Black British adults reported vaccine hesitancy, the highest compared with all ethnic groups

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... hto25april

Source is British Medical Journal:

Data to 14 February 2021 show that over 90% of adults in Britain have received or would be likely to accept the covid-19 vaccine if offered. However, surveys have indicated much greater vaccine hesitancy among people from some ethnic minorities. In a UK survey in December 2020, vaccine hesitancy was highest among black (odds ratio 12.96, 95% confidence interval 7.34 to 22.89), Bangladeshi, and Pakistani (both 2.31, 1.55 to 3.44) populations compared with people from a white ethnic background.

Even more worryingly, data up to 15 January 2021 show substantially lower rates of covid-19 vaccinations among over 80s in ethnic minority (white people 42.5%, black people 20.5%) and deprived communities (least deprived 44.7%, most deprived 37.9%) in England. Similarly, data from an NHS trust show lower covid-19 vaccination rates among ethnic minority healthcare workers (70.9% in white workers v 58.5% in South Asian and 36.8% in black workers; P<0.001 for both).


https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n513

Should it simply become illegal to work in the care system with a 'hands on' role if one refuses the offer of vaccination? Any reason (a good one) not to reduce the risk that unvaccinated care workers pose to others?
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu May 13, 2021 4:30 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Any details on Pediatric version of Pfizer vaccine? Is it different vaccine or same as adult version administered at a lower dose?


For the 12-15 age range, there is no change in the product.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu May 13, 2021 5:57 pm

    DocLightning wrote:
    dtw2hyd wrote:
    Any details on Pediatric version of Pfizer vaccine? Is it different vaccine or same as adult version administered at a lower dose?


    For the 12-15 age range, there is no change in the product.

    My older child has an appointment today, after school!

    Alas, few will vaccinate their kids.

    Lightsaber
     
    hbernal1
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    Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

    Thu May 13, 2021 6:02 pm

    lightsaber wrote:
      DocLightning wrote:
      dtw2hyd wrote:
      Any details on Pediatric version of Pfizer vaccine? Is it different vaccine or same as adult version administered at a lower dose?


      For the 12-15 age range, there is no change in the product.

      My older child has an appointment today, after school!

      Alas, few will vaccinate their kids.

      Lightsaber

      It's interesting that even fully vaccinated adults are quite hesitant to vaccinate their children (those who are eligible at least), as getting teenagers vaccinated is probably what's keeping the U.S. from some form of herd immunity, when accounting for natural immunity among those infected.
       
      art
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      Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

      Thu May 13, 2021 6:03 pm

      lightsaber wrote:
        DocLightning wrote:
        dtw2hyd wrote:
        Any details on Pediatric version of Pfizer vaccine? Is it different vaccine or same as adult version administered at a lower dose?


        For the 12-15 age range, there is no change in the product.

        My older child has an appointment today, after school!

        Alas, few will vaccinate their kids.

        Lightsaber


        You mean they (the parents) accept/want vaccination for themselves but not for their kids? It seems strange that they think it is a good idea for themselves but somehow it is not a good idea for their kids! Where is the logic in that?
         
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        aerolimani
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        Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

        Thu May 13, 2021 10:06 pm

        art wrote:
        lightsaber wrote:
          DocLightning wrote:

          For the 12-15 age range, there is no change in the product.

          My older child has an appointment today, after school!

          Alas, few will vaccinate their kids.

          Lightsaber


          You mean they (the parents) accept/want vaccination for themselves but not for their kids? It seems strange that they think it is a good idea for themselves but somehow it is not a good idea for their kids! Where is the logic in that?

          At the root of vaccine hesitancy is a belief that the vaccines are unproven, and carry risk. But then, many people also believe in the dangers of the virus. As adults, they are willing to take those supposed vaccination risks because they are more afraid of the virus. However, they feel that their children’s youthful immune systems are enough to protect them against the worst effects of the virus. So, they feel less urgency to vaccinate their children, for fear of presumed vaccine risks.

          The problem, of course, is that this attitude is very individualistic, and ignores the greater reality that for the sake of everyone, we need the maximum possible number of humans vaccinated, in all age groups.
           
          art
          Posts: 4184
          Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

          Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

          Thu May 13, 2021 10:50 pm

          aerolimani wrote:
          At the root of vaccine hesitancy is a belief that the vaccines are unproven, and carry risk. But then, many people also believe in the dangers of the virus. As adults, they are willing to take those supposed vaccination risks because they are more afraid of the virus. However, they feel that their children’s youthful immune systems are enough to protect them against the worst effects of the virus. So, they feel less urgency to vaccinate their children, for fear of presumed vaccine risks.

          The problem, of course, is that this attitude is very individualistic, and ignores the greater reality that for the sake of everyone, we need the maximum possible number of humans vaccinated, in all age groups.


          Yes, the problem is that if you don't want your kids to be vaccinated because you perceive it as risky, your kids are much more likely to transmit the virus to others. Among those others may be kids who are affected badly by the virus. Or vice versa - someone else's unvaccinated kid infects one of your unvaccinated kids and your kid has the bad luck to be very badly affected.
           
          User avatar
          lightsaber
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          Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

          Fri May 14, 2021 12:41 am

          art wrote:
          lightsaber wrote:
            DocLightning wrote:

            For the 12-15 age range, there is no change in the product.

            My older child has an appointment today, after school!

            Alas, few will vaccinate their kids.

            Lightsaber


            You mean they (the parents) accept/want vaccination for themselves but not for their kids? It seems strange that they think it is a good idea for themselves but somehow it is not a good idea for their kids! Where is the logic in that?

            29% will get the vaccine right away (like myself for my kid, now 1st jabbed). (This link says 3 in ten, others say 29%...)
            https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-1 ... pril-2021/

            I'm in an area keen to get the kids vaccinated. So I drove the Forum "MEGA Pod". I'm going off what I saw, I would estimate it was at 1/3rd capacity. My child was asked by many nurses how she was doing as they were... bored! This is a Pfizer only site to vaccinate Los Angeles (in Inglewood).

            That link has a bit too much commentary that I do not agree with, but good data in the charts. But why don't they put Asian/Pacific Islander on the charts? Oh yea, they are much more vaccinated from what I can see.

            e.g., look at the Hispanic and Black acceptance only at 36% already vaccinated vs. 50% for the white population.
            Ironically, over age 65 the ratio flips, that I cannot explain.

            As the U.S. awaits authorization of a COVID-19 vaccine for use in children under age 16, three in ten parents of children ages 12-15 say they will get their child vaccinated as soon as a vaccine is available, one quarter say they will wait a while to see how the vaccine is working, 18% plan to get their child vaccinated if their school requires it, and nearly a quarter say they will definitely not get their child vaccinated. Perhaps unsurprisingly, parents’ intentions for vaccinating their kids largely line up with their own intentions for getting the COVID-19 vaccine themselves.

            I can understand concern in a growing child the impact.

            My opinion is the vaccine centers are so idle that adults are just saying they will get vaccinated (themselves) but are instead avoiding the vaccine. They feel enough others can "take the risk" and protect them.

            I modeled this virus. I don't claim my model is 1% as good as say the University of Chicago model, but what mine shows is with variants, the vaccinated population are safe if over 50% are vaccinated (enough of a buffer). Those isolated within highly vaccinated groups are fairly safe (cancer patients, kids too young to be vaccinated) after 50% are vaccinated. For the Unvaccinated, they aren't truly safe, unless they limit contacts, until 70% of the population is vaccinated (per my model).

            Right now, we have vaccinated immunity plus fairly fresh natural immunity gained the hard way.
            https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB16FM5F
            https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... ime-155905

            I like the 2nd links analogy of measles vs. flu. Measles is a very stable virus, so one gains lifetime infection after one case of it. Influenza changes a lot, so a new variant will come around and get you.

            The vaccines are doing pretty darn well. I don't understand the hesitancy and the risk analysis says, get vaccinated.

            Looking at how many are unvaccinated, Ro is 3.7 and growing (let's call it 4...) An unvaccinated person is still going to get it. Some vaccinated might pass it on to their UnVac friends (about a 10% chance, from what I've read). But in the vaccinated communities, Covid19 will die out quickly.

            Now that the CDC says vaccinated do not have to wear a mask
            https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technolo ... NewsSearch

            But still required on planes, trains, and buses:
            https://www.washingtonpost.com/transpor ... buses-cdc/

            If I look at the new case rate, we're on the right trend in the USA and we are not behaving... Ro should be equal to Ro (natural)*(1-% who don't transmit)*(1-%not vulnerable).

            https://ourworldindata.org/us-states-vaccinations

            So we are setting up a fascinating experiment for this coming winter.

            Lightsaber
             
            dtw2hyd
            Posts: 9100
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            Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

            Fri May 14, 2021 1:08 am

            lightsaber wrote:
              DocLightning wrote:
              dtw2hyd wrote:
              Any details on Pediatric version of Pfizer vaccine? Is it different vaccine or same as adult version administered at a lower dose?


              For the 12-15 age range, there is no change in the product.

              My older child has an appointment today, after school!

              Alas, few will vaccinate their kids.

              Lightsaber


              I believe only 1% of school going kids are not vaccinated. Many states now have stricter rules and cut down exceptions like medical and religious reasons. If parents don't want to vaccinate their kids home schooling may be the only option.
               
              dtw2hyd
              Posts: 9100
              Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 1:17 am

              lightsaber wrote:

              I modeled this virus. I don't claim my model is 1% as good as say the University of Chicago model, but what mine shows is with variants, the vaccinated population are safe if over 50% are vaccinated (enough of a buffer). Those isolated within highly vaccinated groups are fairly safe (cancer patients, kids too young to be vaccinated) after 50% are vaccinated. For the Unvaccinated, they aren't truly safe, unless they limit contacts, until 70% of the population is vaccinated (per my model).

              Lightsaber


              For some reason many vaccinations dashboard are not up-to-date.

              Michigan's one+ dose + 2 weeks is 55.6%, plan to hit 70% in 60 days.

              https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html
               
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              DocLightning
              Posts: 22251
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 2:05 am

              dtw2hyd wrote:

              I believe only 1% of school going kids are not vaccinated. Many states now have stricter rules and cut down exceptions like medical and religious reasons. If parents don't want to vaccinate their kids home schooling may be the only option.


              In the US, public school vaccine mandates (and in some cases, private school vaccine mandates) are typically a state-level policy. Generally, private schools may add additional vaccine policies, as long as they are at least as strict as the state's. For example, a friend of mine who is a Rabbi at a Jewish school does not permit any exemption to vaccines other than a legitimate medical one as there is no Jewish reason to decline vaccines. State policies state specifically which vaccines are mandated for school attendance. For example, I am not aware of any state that currently requires influenza, rotavirus, or HPV vaccines for school attendance.

              However, a school may not mandae a fully unlicensed vaccine and it is an unsettled legal question (and I am not a legal expert) as to whether a vaccine under an EUA can be mandated in schools.
               
              User avatar
              aerolimani
              Posts: 1460
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 4:58 am

              art wrote:
              aerolimani wrote:
              At the root of vaccine hesitancy is a belief that the vaccines are unproven, and carry risk. But then, many people also believe in the dangers of the virus. As adults, they are willing to take those supposed vaccination risks because they are more afraid of the virus. However, they feel that their children’s youthful immune systems are enough to protect them against the worst effects of the virus. So, they feel less urgency to vaccinate their children, for fear of presumed vaccine risks.

              The problem, of course, is that this attitude is very individualistic, and ignores the greater reality that for the sake of everyone, we need the maximum possible number of humans vaccinated, in all age groups.


              Yes, the problem is that if you don't want your kids to be vaccinated because you perceive it as risky, your kids are much more likely to transmit the virus to others. Among those others may be kids who are affected badly by the virus. Or vice versa - someone else's unvaccinated kid infects one of your unvaccinated kids and your kid has the bad luck to be very badly affected.

              I'm definitely not saying that I think such parents are behaving logically. Merely, I was trying to explain their logic.
               
              User avatar
              lightsaber
              Moderator
              Posts: 22887
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 11:24 am

              aerolimani wrote:
              art wrote:
              aerolimani wrote:
              At the root of vaccine hesitancy is a belief that the vaccines are unproven, and carry risk. But then, many people also believe in the dangers of the virus. As adults, they are willing to take those supposed vaccination risks because they are more afraid of the virus. However, they feel that their children’s youthful immune systems are enough to protect them against the worst effects of the virus. So, they feel less urgency to vaccinate their children, for fear of presumed vaccine risks.

              The problem, of course, is that this attitude is very individualistic, and ignores the greater reality that for the sake of everyone, we need the maximum possible number of humans vaccinated, in all age groups.


              Yes, the problem is that if you don't want your kids to be vaccinated because you perceive it as risky, your kids are much more likely to transmit the virus to others. Among those others may be kids who are affected badly by the virus. Or vice versa - someone else's unvaccinated kid infects one of your unvaccinated kids and your kid has the bad luck to be very badly affected.

              I'm definitely not saying that I think such parents are behaving logically. Merely, I was trying to explain their logic.

              This "logic" we can agree has risks. Hence why my child who qualified for vaccine received 1st jab. Part of my thinking is grandparents need hugs and lets keep that as safe as possible.

              Everyone is starting to treat this pandemic as if it is over already. :boggled:
              I'm not into panicking. I was posting in this thread how I'll party six weeks after vaccines are readily available. Heck, I'm going to a restaurant tonight. :) But the way we get out is we stop the spread.
              All indications are the cities around where I live in are filling up vaccine slots and, like myself, driving further out to get the kids vaccinated. However, other communities have no interest. I can name cities that make up Los Angeles were every person I know who lives in that city and their kids is going to remain unvaccinated and not one person, but dozens (aerospace companies are large enterprises and my role has me interact with quite a few people).

              Lightsaber
               
              User avatar
              lightsaber
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 11:45 am

              dtw2hyd wrote:
              lightsaber wrote:

              I modeled this virus. I don't claim my model is 1% as good as say the University of Chicago model, but what mine shows is with variants, the vaccinated population are safe if over 50% are vaccinated (enough of a buffer). Those isolated within highly vaccinated groups are fairly safe (cancer patients, kids too young to be vaccinated) after 50% are vaccinated. For the Unvaccinated, they aren't truly safe, unless they limit contacts, until 70% of the population is vaccinated (per my model).

              Lightsaber


              For some reason many vaccinations dashboard are not up-to-date.

              Michigan's one+ dose + 2 weeks is 55.6%, plan to hit 70% in 60 days.

              https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html

              I post on total population. That dashboard is age 16+. In other words, ignoring the at risk population age 0 until they turn 16. So when 25% to 30% of the population is removed, 45% becomes over 55%.

              The issue is Detroit's vaccine hesitancy in Michigan:
              https://www.wxyz.com/news/coronavirus/c ... ues-to-lag
              https://www.metrotimes.com/detroit/detr ... d=27105065

              Changing the divisor doesn't help the problem of under-vaccination.
              The UnVacs will soon be on their own. My social circles politely ask the qualifying age groups "are you vaccinated" and if the answer is no, then quietly there are no invites (excluding pregnant women, everyone understands that level of uncertainty, or at least cuts them slack).
              My concern is I still have a child who doesn't qualify for vaccination as with many parents.

              I wish J&J was more available (note, I don't imply any reduction in quality control, rather that the manufacturing was done more rigorously). The clot scare prevented, by my best guess, 1/8th of my coworkers from getting the vaccine. :cry2:

              Lightsaber



              Lightsaber
               
              User avatar
              par13del
              Posts: 10965
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 12:56 pm

              Only thing I can add here is I do not expect much change in hesitancy until vaccines are available on a get it when you want it basis, until then, the sceptics will always have a reason to say no. We live in a world society where saying NO without a valid reason is a difficult thing to do for the majority, so wanting the single dose JJ versus two dose Pfizer / Moderna, wanting to take it at your personal doctor versus going to a government site - look how things picked up when pharmacies were included -, so in my opinion, until production ramps up and supplies are available world wide, a personal valid excuse will always be available.
               
              dtw2hyd
              Posts: 9100
              Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 12:59 pm

              lightsaber wrote:
              I post on total population. That dashboard is age 16+. In other words, ignoring the at risk population age 0 until they turn 16. So when 25% to 30% of the population is removed, 45% becomes over 55%.

              Lightsaber


              Well
              Nov '20-Apr '21 - Vaccine was legally available in phases to a portion of public,by profession, by age or by preexisting medical conditions
              5/1/21 - 16+ General availability (14 days)
              5/13/21 - 12+ General availability (1 day)

              Measuring against total population is not realistic.
               
              art
              Posts: 4184
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 1:54 pm

              There is a large contingent of people in UK from the Indian subcontinent. Until a few days ago the government allowed movement from there to here but belatedly closed that avenue of transmission of the so called Indian variant through flights from India. We now have a rapidly growing number of infections of that variant in some towns/cities with atypically high levels of people of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi origin with an unusually low proportion of vaccinees.

              Putting 2 and 2 together before the link is officially established, I see this phenomenon - after 100 or more days of COVID-19 infections dropping, the 7 day average has reversed, increasing every day for the last 8 days - as a product of vaccine refusal in the Indian subcontinental community here.

              Watch out wherever there is a high degree of vaccine refusal! It can turn an improving trend into a deteriorating trend.
               
              dtw2hyd
              Posts: 9100
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 3:18 pm

              art wrote:
              We now have a rapidly growing number of infections of that variant in some towns/cities with atypically high levels of people of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi origin with an unusually low proportion of vaccinees.


              That is an interesting observation. Here is US, things are different, most Indian origins are fully vaccinated, first to be in the line, even jump the line, scanning for surplus stocks, look for any qualifying preexisting condition, get vaccine by any means.

              Any Indian with US visa made the trip, got Pfizer or Moderna even before many Americans. I believe back in India, it is considered a privilege to get Pfizer or Moderna.

              This somewhat caused the disparity. Both FEMA and Detroit City have mass vaccine campaigns, neighboring county residents took advantage, City residents still lag.
               
              User avatar
              mercure1
              Posts: 5230
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 5:13 pm

              Seychelles, the most vaccinated country in the world per capita (43% AZ, rest mostly Sinopharm) cases are spiking like crazy.

              Image

              https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1XRmOMVUAk ... ame=medium
               
              Tiredofhumanity
              Posts: 168
              Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:27 pm

              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 5:56 pm

              art wrote:
              There is a large contingent of people in UK from the Indian subcontinent. Until a few days ago the government allowed movement from there to here but belatedly closed that avenue of transmission of the so called Indian variant through flights from India. We now have a rapidly growing number of infections of that variant in some towns/cities with atypically high levels of people of Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi origin with an unusually low proportion of vaccinees.

              Putting 2 and 2 together before the link is officially established, I see this phenomenon - after 100 or more days of COVID-19 infections dropping, the 7 day average has reversed, increasing every day for the last 8 days - as a product of vaccine refusal in the Indian subcontinental community here.

              Watch out wherever there is a high degree of vaccine refusal! It can turn an improving trend into a deteriorating trend.


              *SIGH*

              I was going to post an article in the aviation news thread about the UK asking the US to form a travel bubble, but that seems pointless now.

              It feels like the hell from Dec-Mar will repeat itself - absolutely infuriating. :hissyfit:

              https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiXW ... id=US%3Aen
               
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              Aesma
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Fri May 14, 2021 8:57 pm

              Well BoJo wanted to study the variants in situ so he needed them to spread first... Will the Indian variant become the UK variant 2.0 ?

              I've seen that Ohio will give 1 million dollars to 5 vaccinated people, crazy ! Maybe others will follow, it's probably a good idea.
               
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              aerolimani
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Sat May 15, 2021 1:24 am

              mercure1 wrote:
              Seychelles, the most vaccinated country in the world per capita (43% AZ, rest mostly Sinopharm) cases are spiking like crazy.

              Image

              https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1XRmOMVUAk ... ame=medium


              I would like to know, though, how many are serious cases. A good statistic to compare with the case count would be hospitalizations. If hospitalizations aren't rising so dramatically, that would still be rather good news.
               
              dtw2hyd
              Posts: 9100
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Sat May 15, 2021 1:44 am

              aerolimani wrote:
              I would like to know, though, how many are serious cases. A good statistic to compare with the case count would be hospitalizations. If hospitalizations aren't rising so dramatically, that would still be rather good news.


              I think the minor illness good news story is oversold.

              Lung capacity once lost is permanently lost. AFAIK there is no recovery. How many are getting CT scans after recovery.

              Long-COVID is a fact. Fatigue or brain fog.

              There is no need to experiment with COVID-19.
               
              flyguy89
              Posts: 3422
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Sat May 15, 2021 2:40 am

              mercure1 wrote:
              Seychelles, the most vaccinated country in the world per capita (43% AZ, rest mostly Sinopharm) cases are spiking like crazy.

              Image

              https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1XRmOMVUAk ... ame=medium

              Infection spreading rampantly among the unvaccinated unfortunately. Some 80% of the new cases there are unvaccinated individuals.
               
              User avatar
              aerolimani
              Posts: 1460
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              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Sat May 15, 2021 3:29 am

              dtw2hyd wrote:
              aerolimani wrote:
              I would like to know, though, how many are serious cases. A good statistic to compare with the case count would be hospitalizations. If hospitalizations aren't rising so dramatically, that would still be rather good news.


              I think the minor illness good news story is oversold.

              Lung capacity once lost is permanently lost. AFAIK there is no recovery. How many are getting CT scans after recovery.

              Long-COVID is a fact. Fatigue or brain fog.

              There is no need to experiment with COVID-19.

              Well… it sounds like it is only your personal feeling that vaccines are not reducing the severity of illness. Reduction in severity is an expected effect of vaccines, just as they are not expected to eliminate 100% of cases. Researchers believe that long haulers make up 10% of cases. I assume that is in unvaccinated people. There is no reason to believe that vaccines won't reduce the percentage of long-haulers. Even the most conservative articles are reporting that the evidence shows a substantial reduction in severe symptoms. It stands to reason that a much less severe illness will equate to a much lower likelihood of permanent damage.

              At some point, we will just have to accept that COVID-19, along with its future descendants, is going to be with us more or less forever. Between vaccines that can't prevent it 100%, and vaccine hesitancy, we will have to accept that we're going to get sick sometimes. We are all exposed to risk, every day, of all types. We will have to just accept that COVID-19 is going to be one of them, to some degree or another. Or, we live forever in lockdowns and quarantines.

              flyguy89 wrote:
              mercure1 wrote:
              Seychelles, the most vaccinated country in the world per capita (43% AZ, rest mostly Sinopharm) cases are spiking like crazy.
              https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1XRmOMVUAk ... ame=medium

              Infection spreading rampantly among the unvaccinated unfortunately. Some 80% of the new cases there are unvaccinated individuals.

              And, that is the other important statistic. I wish I had looked that up first. Thanks for sharing. It's good to hear that this spike in cases isn't being seen in the vaccinated crowd. I assume it's people relaxing too much, and especially the non-vaxxers. Very sad that they are seeing these cases now. Perhaps it will encourage the stragglers to get their shots!
               
              User avatar
              Francoflier
              Posts: 5909
              Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

              Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

              Sat May 15, 2021 4:02 am

              Just more evidence that the virus will eventually make its way everywhere and infect everyone on the planet.

              The only choice is whether you want to get exposed to it with or without vaccination.

              At this stage, and with the data that we have, you'd have to be borderline retarded to want to be the latter...

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