Data from the Dutch health body (Page is English) https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-covi ... 2/variants
. Currently, around 1500 samples are sequenced weekly, with somewhere between 10,000-15,000 total positive tests weekly (aka 7-10%). Delta is currently only a very minor (<1%) but public health experts are worried (see slide 25 https://www.tweedekamer.nl/sites/defaul ... isssel.pdf
it's Dutch, but the graph is clear). The Danish should have even better data, but it's hard for me to dig that up.
Incidence of the Indian variant is currently low on the continent (surprisingly low say experts) hopefully the vaccination program will suppress this outbreak. People expect that vaccine uptake will look more like Britain then America (seriously US, what the f*ck are you doing!?).
I and my older child are vaccinated, so I personally do not understand how many are avoiding the vaccine. If the EU vaccination rate is like the UK, you will have less impact from Delta as everything I read is that the vaccines really help against not just getting Delta, but from transmitting it. (As much as 90% reduction in transmission per links in this thread earlier).
The low incidence of Delta is good news. However, the economy must be opened up and with so much of the economy tourism, it will spread. A 7 to 10% of the positive tests being sampled for variants is adequate.
I look at the large intermingling populations here in the USA that are not adequately vaccinated and I see there will be cases. Now UV kills the virus wonderfully, so the great current weather should help mitigate the spread, but it won't stop it. For a much more transmissible virus such as Delta, the US at 51% is in trouble. However, the EU is just hitting the vaccination levels where the USA suddenly hit resistance. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
When I look at the curves for German, France, Poland, and Sweden, I'm not so certain the EU will get to a higher vaccination rate than the US. We might have just hit the avoiding population earlier. Notice I don't say hesitant. Few who qualify for a vaccine today want the vaccine from my anecdotal conversations. If all kids could get vaccinated, I wouldn't care less about the anti-vax. But since kids cannot get vaccinated, this is an issue. With the (normally) open boarders of the EU, it will be a group effort.
I doubt the rural areas this summer will have a big issue. They have natural social distancing and UV kills the virus. But when the bars kick back up and concerts, we're going to see an uptick.
I'm also not so certain India is done with Delta. The areas where testing occurs were locked down and will soon recall the labor from the villages where testing doesn't occur. Due to the lack of vaccination in India (mostly due to the need for so much vaccine due to such a huge population) the virus will not be slowed by the current level of vaccination. In particular as Delta seems to require full vaccination (both doses plus two or three weeks) to be slowed.
8 months without TV. The best decision of my life.