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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:08 pm

Greece and France are mandating health care worker vaccines:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/co ... NewsSearch

I want vaccines, but like an ex-smoker, I have strong opinions on mandates. It is my opinion that burnt out people, which the nurses are globally, will not think but react. I am curious to see the consequences (how well does the mandates work).

frmrCapCadet wrote:
No medicine doesn't have a side effect.


It sounds almost like bad grammar, but it isn't. Any medicine, supplement, even food or exercise that can affect your health for the better can in different people, different doses, opposite sex, age etc affect your health for the worse. In the case of medicines when someone is in the ICU almost no medicine is a magic bullet that helps every organ in the body. It more likely in large enough doses helps particular organ(s), but may hurt others.

It is easier the stay healthy than to get better. Vaccines are the magic bullet, er .... shot.

Agreed that vaccines are the magic. Tiny risk, huge rewards. But you can lead a horse to water...

Lightsaber
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:27 pm

In Italy it has been mandated from the start (my cousin who is a 30yo speech therapist was vaccinated back in January), only 2% of HC professionals are not vaccinated, and they have been suspended without pay as a result.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:42 pm

[url][/url]
Aesma wrote:
In Italy it has been mandated from the start (my cousin who is a 30yo speech therapist was vaccinated back in January), only 2% of HC professionals are not vaccinated, and they have been suspended without pay as a result.

Doing it early was wise. Then there was more concern on the virus, in my opinion we have become complacent, and there has been a large anti-vax campaign that has created doubt.

I would expect more resistance today, in particular now that healcare workers seem to be less motivated as, in my opinion, there is far less sympathy for the infected due to known behaviors to reduce the risk/exposure and growing fraction of the patients who refused vaccines.

I don't know how this mandate will go. I would bet far worse than 2% decline. I hope not, but at this point, we shall see.

Lightsaber
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Jul 14, 2021 7:49 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I want vaccines, but like an ex-smoker, I have strong opinions on mandates. It is my opinion that burnt out people, which the nurses are globally, will not think but react. I am curious to see the consequences (how well does the mandates work).


Someone once opined to me that it's often class conflict issue. Nurses (at least RNs) have to have college degrees, but generally come from working-class backgrounds and view themselves as working-class. So here come these uppity doctors with their multiple degrees and six-figure incomes telling everyone they have to get vaccinated and some nurses push back. It's not my idea, but it seems like a reasonable explanation to me.

The vast majority of nurses with whom I work did get vaccinated, but in our organization, I think 100% of our physicians did and not 100% of our nurses. The numbers got lower as we moved to LVNs, medical assistants, and support staff.

Anyway I care for the kids (teenagers) of one of our unit clerks. I went through a bit of a journey with her ten years ago getting her to give her boys their flu shots. But when this came around, she said: "As for the COVID vaccine, noooope! Not for us!"

No prizes for guessing what happened to them in the last couple of weeks.

Some people, when told the stove is hot, just *have* to touch it to make sure.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Jul 14, 2021 8:15 pm

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I want vaccines, but like an ex-smoker, I have strong opinions on mandates. It is my opinion that burnt out people, which the nurses are globally, will not think but react. I am curious to see the consequences (how well does the mandates work).


Someone once opined to me that it's often class conflict issue. Nurses (at least RNs) have to have college degrees, but generally come from working-class backgrounds and view themselves as working-class. So here come these uppity doctors with their multiple degrees and six-figure incomes telling everyone they have to get vaccinated and some nurses push back. It's not my idea, but it seems like a reasonable explanation to me.

The vast majority of nurses with whom I work did get vaccinated, but in our organization, I think 100% of our physicians did and not 100% of our nurses. The numbers got lower as we moved to LVNs, medical assistants, and support staff.

Anyway I care for the kids (teenagers) of one of our unit clerks. I went through a bit of a journey with her ten years ago getting her to give her boys their flu shots. But when this came around, she said: "As for the COVID vaccine, noooope! Not for us!"

No prizes for guessing what happened to them in the last couple of weeks.

Some people, when told the stove is hot, just *have* to touch it to make sure.



I like to refer to it as the "Hold my Beer" culture.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
descl
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Jul 14, 2021 8:29 pm

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Except that while someone might test positive, they might not produce enough virus to infect other vaccinated. Those who do not catch a virus do not transmit.

R=Ro*(1-%category*chance transmit)*(1-%category* chance receive) on a first order basis. If we assume chance to transmit is chance to test positive (a reasonable assumption).

R= 6*(1-100%*64)*(1-100%*.64) = .7776

So a 100% vaccinated will stop the virus.
Need a vaccination rate of 92.5% to bring R<1, worst case for Ro=6
86.5% for Ro initial being a 5.0.

The issue is vaccines that do a poor chance of stopping transmission. This is, in my opinion, why the attenuated virus vaccines are doing so poorly.

There are solutions. e.g., masks Another is a 3rd jab, ideally another vaccine or a variant booster. Also, most vaccinated are mild cases.

Ro drops with social distancing and other behavior changes. Unfortunately, people are not willing to isolate anymore fully. But local cells will be different.

For example, my children are in a camp where 100% of the eligible are vaccinated and only young kids are not. They spend a lot of time outside distanced, wear masks except during lunch which is well distanced, barriers at desks... That all drops R.

Higher density areas have it tougher. Low vaccinated areas have it tougher. But a fully vaccinated population with the better vaccines will Stop Delta.

That said, when I look at the world, I cannot find a country well enough vaccinated to stop it. Germany seems to be doing incredibly well of the countries with good data and testing. But that could just be until they open up...

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

Lightsaber

Except, the chance of receiving infection is already chance of being tested positive, and thus you cannot multiple it twice.
In case R0=6 without controk neasure it will transmit like this:
1→6→36→216
With vaccine stopping 64% infection it will goes like this:
1→2.15→4.62→9.94
Much better, but still increasing exponentially

Please simulate contacts
Unvaccinated with unvaccinated has your first progression 1 to 6 to 36 to 216, that we can agree on.

Vaccinated has a much lower change of exposing a vaccinated enough to infect them. (Lower viral load.)
1 to 0.7776, higher if they are around each other a lot.

You are making the assumption a vaccine only protects the individual from infection.
Strong evidence a vaccine reduces the chance of infecting another person:
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-05- ... ssion.html
One dose:
It found immunization with either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine reduced the chance of onward virus transmission by 40-60%. This means that if someone became infected after being vaccinated, they were only around half as likely to pass their infection on to others compared to infected people who weren't vaccinated.

After two doses, a 90% reduction in transmission for AZ and Pfizder:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/cdc-stud ... es-5121080

Now, as before the risk of infection was about the risk of transmission, I assumed the same. It is possible for a vaccine, like AZ is, to be more effective stopping transmission than preventing the person inoculated from being infected. :wideeyed:

This is why a 50% effective rate is acceptable for a vaccine. What is unusual with Covid19 is with attenuated virus vaccines, the transmission remains high.

All of the adreno virus vaccines (AZ, J&J, Sputnik V) and mRNA (Moderna, Pfizer) are amazingly good at stopping transmission.

Theoretically, you could have a vaccine where 90% of the people were infected (10% effective) and yet they do not pass on the virus (unlikely, I admit, but theoretically possible).
It isn't Ro*effectiveness it is Ro* (1-%transmit)*(1-%receive). You are assuming 100% of the vaccinated who get the virus produce enough virus to infect someone else. Thankfully, we are not in that dooms day scenario. If that were the case, the UK, US, Israel, and others would have much steeper growth curves.

Individuals care about how much a vaccine protects them.
Health authorities care how much a vaccine prevents transmission.

Now, the two tend to be correlated, but with Covid19, not so much.
AZ does much better preventing transmission than it does preventing infection. Ok, great from a health authority perspective.
SinoVac and SinoPharm seem to have little benefit in transmission. I speculate this is why Chile and the UAE are doing far worse from a virus infection standpoint than their vaccination rates suggest.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... BR~QAT~ARE

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+dose%29

I've done a very amateur model of virus propagation and modified it for delta and vaccine effectiveness. Now, I make assumptions on how well natural immunity after a prior infection works and how fast it fades away, but the virus would be spreading far faster if every one who caught it was that infectious. In particular the high fraction of asymptomatic.

We'll be ok with a higher level of vaccination. I calculate with pretty darn high levels.

Think, the Measles vaccine is only 97% effective with an Ro of 50! (most contagious disease I know about). The population is far from fully vaccinated, yet it dies off (ok, it came back..., but people stopped vaccinating as it became so rare). There is another aspect which is people do not transmit as much if vaccinated.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/measles/index.html

I doubt I'll convince anyone. While I have my concerns on this virus, it needs to be in perspective.

Lightsaber

Sorry but have you look at the data? Weekly cases in Chile fell by 68% in 5 weeks; currently we have 852 weekly cases/1 million hab, compared to 3.415 weekly cases/hab in the UK, both countries having similar vaccination rates.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:41 pm

In Chile did they start booster shots with the Chinese vaccines, I thought I read where that was being looked at when the surges started.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 1:17 am

Good news, J&J seems to be working vs. Delta. I'm all for one and done as for some people
https://www.ft.com/content/b5366f23-f6f ... cef60ab6a0

descl wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Except, the chance of receiving infection is already chance of being tested positive, and thus you cannot multiple it twice.
In case R0=6 without controk neasure it will transmit like this:
1→6→36→216
With vaccine stopping 64% infection it will goes like this:
1→2.15→4.62→9.94
Much better, but still increasing exponentially

Please simulate contacts
Unvaccinated with unvaccinated has your first progression 1 to 6 to 36 to 216, that we can agree on.

Vaccinated has a much lower change of exposing a vaccinated enough to infect them. (Lower viral load.)
1 to 0.7776, higher if they are around each other a lot.

You are making the assumption a vaccine only protects the individual from infection.
Strong evidence a vaccine reduces the chance of infecting another person:
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-05- ... ssion.html
One dose:
It found immunization with either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine reduced the chance of onward virus transmission by 40-60%. This means that if someone became infected after being vaccinated, they were only around half as likely to pass their infection on to others compared to infected people who weren't vaccinated.

After two doses, a 90% reduction in transmission for AZ and Pfizder:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/cdc-stud ... es-5121080

Now, as before the risk of infection was about the risk of transmission, I assumed the same. It is possible for a vaccine, like AZ is, to be more effective stopping transmission than preventing the person inoculated from being infected. :wideeyed:

This is why a 50% effective rate is acceptable for a vaccine. What is unusual with Covid19 is with attenuated virus vaccines, the transmission remains high.

All of the adreno virus vaccines (AZ, J&J, Sputnik V) and mRNA (Moderna, Pfizer) are amazingly good at stopping transmission.

Theoretically, you could have a vaccine where 90% of the people were infected (10% effective) and yet they do not pass on the virus (unlikely, I admit, but theoretically possible).
It isn't Ro*effectiveness it is Ro* (1-%transmit)*(1-%receive). You are assuming 100% of the vaccinated who get the virus produce enough virus to infect someone else. Thankfully, we are not in that dooms day scenario. If that were the case, the UK, US, Israel, and others would have much steeper growth curves.

Individuals care about how much a vaccine protects them.
Health authorities care how much a vaccine prevents transmission.

Now, the two tend to be correlated, but with Covid19, not so much.
AZ does much better preventing transmission than it does preventing infection. Ok, great from a health authority perspective.
SinoVac and SinoPharm seem to have little benefit in transmission. I speculate this is why Chile and the UAE are doing far worse from a virus infection standpoint than their vaccination rates suggest.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... BR~QAT~ARE

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+dose%29

I've done a very amateur model of virus propagation and modified it for delta and vaccine effectiveness. Now, I make assumptions on how well natural immunity after a prior infection works and how fast it fades away, but the virus would be spreading far faster if every one who caught it was that infectious. In particular the high fraction of asymptomatic.

We'll be ok with a higher level of vaccination. I calculate with pretty darn high levels.

Think, the Measles vaccine is only 97% effective with an Ro of 50! (most contagious disease I know about). The population is far from fully vaccinated, yet it dies off (ok, it came back..., but people stopped vaccinating as it became so rare). There is another aspect which is people do not transmit as much if vaccinated.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/measles/index.html

I doubt I'll convince anyone. While I have my concerns on this virus, it needs to be in perspective.

Lightsaber

Sorry but have you look at the data? Weekly cases in Chile fell by 68% in 5 weeks; currently we have 852 weekly cases/1 million hab, compared to 3.415 weekly cases/hab in the UK, both countries having similar vaccination rates.

I look at ourworld in data quite a bit. Vaccines are helping, but a spike that started mid-January might be burning out naturally.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 300647.php
That effectiveness isn't very high

90% effectiveness versus ICU... One would hope for better.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0 ... 053763.htm

Errr... Any vaccine is better than none. I'll be the first to advocate. But the attenuated virus vaccines are helping, but really need a booster.

Looking,

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... TA~ARE~CHL

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~CHL~ISR

Chile has a higher vaccination rate than Israel, and is coming down to their level.

Indonesia has approved the 3rd dose:
https://www.laprensalatina.com/indonesi ... cine-dose/

Speaking to Metro TV channel, Health Ministry Siti Nadia Tarmizi spokesperson said doctors would begin to inoculate a booster dose of Moderna this week or the next to those who have already received both shots of Sinovac or AstraZeneca.

I approve of both of those vaccines getting boosters. If Sinovac (or Sinopharm) 2 jab and one of mRNA is the quickest way to protect the world, do it.
The UK is being a very interesting case study in Delta. I hope Chile does well when Delta gets there. I take no joy in the spread of this virus. We need to figure out how to make more of the most effective vaccines as no vaccine isn't a good place to be.

Mostly, get a child's vaccine! They need more socialization and that means getting them all from being spreaders.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 8:52 am

lightsaber wrote:
Good news, J&J seems to be working vs. Delta. I'm all for one and done as for some people
https://www.ft.com/content/b5366f23-f6f ... cef60ab6a0

descl wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Please simulate contacts
Unvaccinated with unvaccinated has your first progression 1 to 6 to 36 to 216, that we can agree on.

Vaccinated has a much lower change of exposing a vaccinated enough to infect them. (Lower viral load.)
1 to 0.7776, higher if they are around each other a lot.

You are making the assumption a vaccine only protects the individual from infection.
Strong evidence a vaccine reduces the chance of infecting another person:
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-05- ... ssion.html
One dose:
It found immunization with either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine reduced the chance of onward virus transmission by 40-60%. This means that if someone became infected after being vaccinated, they were only around half as likely to pass their infection on to others compared to infected people who weren't vaccinated.

After two doses, a 90% reduction in transmission for AZ and Pfizder:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/cdc-stud ... es-5121080

Now, as before the risk of infection was about the risk of transmission, I assumed the same. It is possible for a vaccine, like AZ is, to be more effective stopping transmission than preventing the person inoculated from being infected. :wideeyed:

This is why a 50% effective rate is acceptable for a vaccine. What is unusual with Covid19 is with attenuated virus vaccines, the transmission remains high.

All of the adreno virus vaccines (AZ, J&J, Sputnik V) and mRNA (Moderna, Pfizer) are amazingly good at stopping transmission.

Theoretically, you could have a vaccine where 90% of the people were infected (10% effective) and yet they do not pass on the virus (unlikely, I admit, but theoretically possible).
It isn't Ro*effectiveness it is Ro* (1-%transmit)*(1-%receive). You are assuming 100% of the vaccinated who get the virus produce enough virus to infect someone else. Thankfully, we are not in that dooms day scenario. If that were the case, the UK, US, Israel, and others would have much steeper growth curves.

Individuals care about how much a vaccine protects them.
Health authorities care how much a vaccine prevents transmission.

Now, the two tend to be correlated, but with Covid19, not so much.
AZ does much better preventing transmission than it does preventing infection. Ok, great from a health authority perspective.
SinoVac and SinoPharm seem to have little benefit in transmission. I speculate this is why Chile and the UAE are doing far worse from a virus infection standpoint than their vaccination rates suggest.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... BR~QAT~ARE

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+dose%29

I've done a very amateur model of virus propagation and modified it for delta and vaccine effectiveness. Now, I make assumptions on how well natural immunity after a prior infection works and how fast it fades away, but the virus would be spreading far faster if every one who caught it was that infectious. In particular the high fraction of asymptomatic.

We'll be ok with a higher level of vaccination. I calculate with pretty darn high levels.

Think, the Measles vaccine is only 97% effective with an Ro of 50! (most contagious disease I know about). The population is far from fully vaccinated, yet it dies off (ok, it came back..., but people stopped vaccinating as it became so rare). There is another aspect which is people do not transmit as much if vaccinated.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/measles/index.html

I doubt I'll convince anyone. While I have my concerns on this virus, it needs to be in perspective.

Lightsaber

Sorry but have you look at the data? Weekly cases in Chile fell by 68% in 5 weeks; currently we have 852 weekly cases/1 million hab, compared to 3.415 weekly cases/hab in the UK, both countries having similar vaccination rates.

I look at ourworld in data quite a bit. Vaccines are helping, but a spike that started mid-January might be burning out naturally.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 300647.php
That effectiveness isn't very high

90% effectiveness versus ICU... One would hope for better.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0 ... 053763.htm

Errr... Any vaccine is better than none. I'll be the first to advocate. But the attenuated virus vaccines are helping, but really need a booster.

Looking,

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... TA~ARE~CHL

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~CHL~ISR

Chile has a higher vaccination rate than Israel, and is coming down to their level.

Indonesia has approved the 3rd dose:
https://www.laprensalatina.com/indonesi ... cine-dose/

Speaking to Metro TV channel, Health Ministry Siti Nadia Tarmizi spokesperson said doctors would begin to inoculate a booster dose of Moderna this week or the next to those who have already received both shots of Sinovac or AstraZeneca.

I approve of both of those vaccines getting boosters. If Sinovac (or Sinopharm) 2 jab and one of mRNA is the quickest way to protect the world, do it.
The UK is being a very interesting case study in Delta. I hope Chile does well when Delta gets there. I take no joy in the spread of this virus. We need to figure out how to make more of the most effective vaccines as no vaccine isn't a good place to be.

Mostly, get a child's vaccine! They need more socialization and that means getting them all from being spreaders.

Lightsaber

China have approved Sinopharm and Sinovac for people aged 3-17 last month.
But they still haven't been able to get the data to Hong Kong government for approval in such age range.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:14 am

https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E6%A5%B5%E9% ... 12285.html

Hong Kong government: Travellers from "high risk area", including UK, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, as long as they:
- Are Hong Kong residents, or labor
- Have been vaccinated, and hold vaccination proof either issued by Hong Kong, or acceoted by WHO
- Be tested negative before boarding
After arriving Hong Kong, they will need to:
- Observe 21 days quarantine at specific hotel plus 7 days health monitor
- Conduct 4 tests in the period of time
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
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Challenger007
Posts: 29
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 12:26 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Good news, J&J seems to be working vs. Delta. I'm all for one and done as for some people
https://www.ft.com/content/b5366f23-f6f ... cef60ab6a0

descl wrote:
Sorry but have you look at the data? Weekly cases in Chile fell by 68% in 5 weeks; currently we have 852 weekly cases/1 million hab, compared to 3.415 weekly cases/hab in the UK, both countries having similar vaccination rates.

I look at ourworld in data quite a bit. Vaccines are helping, but a spike that started mid-January might be burning out naturally.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 300647.php
That effectiveness isn't very high

90% effectiveness versus ICU... One would hope for better.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0 ... 053763.htm

Errr... Any vaccine is better than none. I'll be the first to advocate. But the attenuated virus vaccines are helping, but really need a booster.

Looking,

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... TA~ARE~CHL

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~CHL~ISR

Chile has a higher vaccination rate than Israel, and is coming down to their level.

Indonesia has approved the 3rd dose:
https://www.laprensalatina.com/indonesi ... cine-dose/

Speaking to Metro TV channel, Health Ministry Siti Nadia Tarmizi spokesperson said doctors would begin to inoculate a booster dose of Moderna this week or the next to those who have already received both shots of Sinovac or AstraZeneca.

I approve of both of those vaccines getting boosters. If Sinovac (or Sinopharm) 2 jab and one of mRNA is the quickest way to protect the world, do it.
The UK is being a very interesting case study in Delta. I hope Chile does well when Delta gets there. I take no joy in the spread of this virus. We need to figure out how to make more of the most effective vaccines as no vaccine isn't a good place to be.

Mostly, get a child's vaccine! They need more socialization and that means getting them all from being spreaders.

Lightsaber

China have approved Sinopharm and Sinovac for people aged 3-17 last month.
But they still haven't been able to get the data to Hong Kong government for approval in such age range.


I was vaccinated with Sinovac vaccine, there was no side effect, I feel great.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 1:01 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Good news, J&J seems to be working vs. Delta. I'm all for one and done as for some people
https://www.ft.com/content/b5366f23-f6f ... cef60ab6a0

descl wrote:
Sorry but have you look at the data? Weekly cases in Chile fell by 68% in 5 weeks; currently we have 852 weekly cases/1 million hab, compared to 3.415 weekly cases/hab in the UK, both countries having similar vaccination rates.

I look at ourworld in data quite a bit. Vaccines are helping, but a spike that started mid-January might be burning out naturally.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 300647.php
That effectiveness isn't very high

90% effectiveness versus ICU... One would hope for better.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0 ... 053763.htm

Errr... Any vaccine is better than none. I'll be the first to advocate. But the attenuated virus vaccines are helping, but really need a booster.

Looking,

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... TA~ARE~CHL

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~CHL~ISR

Chile has a higher vaccination rate than Israel, and is coming down to their level.

Indonesia has approved the 3rd dose:
https://www.laprensalatina.com/indonesi ... cine-dose/

Speaking to Metro TV channel, Health Ministry Siti Nadia Tarmizi spokesperson said doctors would begin to inoculate a booster dose of Moderna this week or the next to those who have already received both shots of Sinovac or AstraZeneca.

I approve of both of those vaccines getting boosters. If Sinovac (or Sinopharm) 2 jab and one of mRNA is the quickest way to protect the world, do it.
The UK is being a very interesting case study in Delta. I hope Chile does well when Delta gets there. I take no joy in the spread of this virus. We need to figure out how to make more of the most effective vaccines as no vaccine isn't a good place to be.

Mostly, get a child's vaccine! They need more socialization and that means getting them all from being spreaders.

Lightsaber

China have approved Sinopharm and Sinovac for people aged 3-17 last month.
But they still haven't been able to get the data to Hong Kong government for approval in such age range.

I'm happy there is a vaccine for all children. Now to get one for the Western world. As much as I want my younger child vaccinated, I will wait for mRNA, Novavax, or J&J (preference in that order).

There are two ways to achieve herd immunity:
1. Vaccinate a very high fraction of the population with a moderately effective vaccine (e.g., how we stop most diseases)
2. Vaccinate enough with a highly effective vaccine

Obviously both is even better. This will allow China to slow the spread as soon as they can get all the kids vaccinated.

Hopefully soon there is a western vaccine for 3-11 soon. Very soon. Alas, September prediction.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 1:59 pm

Who rates Sinovac as 51% effective:
https://news.yahoo.com/covid-know-china ... 01977.html

My opinion is use the attenuated virus vaccines to slow hospital loads, but like Indonesia (see link my previous post) vaccinate with mRNA vaccines ASAP.

I am of the opinion that a virus that mutates as fast as coronavirus cannot be stopped (a la influenza) with attenuated virus vaccines. They help a bit, reduce hospitalizations and ICU visits.

J&J has 85% resistance vs. severe disease, but I know from personal conversations with coronavirus doctors even better keeping people out of the ICU. e.g., my relative in Colorado has had several vaccine breakthroughs, including J&J, but none of the J&J went to the ICU. I know anecdotal...

My prior link showed how attenuated virus 90% effective keeping people out of the ICU. But J&J 66% vs 51% symptom effectiveness means fewer to hospital and logically fewer to ICU.

link on J&J
https://www.ibtimes.com/delta-variant-i ... 6271?amp=1

I am of the opinion all vaccines are ready for a booster. Since I had Pfizer, I will see if I can get a Moderna booster on the theory this will broaden my immunity. However "less effective" vaccines need a booster now.

It is a shame we are 9 to 12 months away from sufficient vaccine production.

Lightsaber
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 2:35 pm

Interesting coverage by CNN of the Right Wing Media and their anti-science anti-vax screeching that is costing the US in a rise in cases and a probably rise in deaths,

https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2021/0 ... ess-media/

Currently per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ekly_table

The US stands at a +67% rise in cases comparing the last 7 days to the previous 7 days
The deaths have risen by +19%

By current estimates 99% of the new deaths are for the unvaccinated.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Good news, J&J seems to be working vs. Delta. I'm all for one and done as for some people
https://www.ft.com/content/b5366f23-f6f ... cef60ab6a0


I look at ourworld in data quite a bit. Vaccines are helping, but a spike that started mid-January might be burning out naturally.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 300647.php
That effectiveness isn't very high

90% effectiveness versus ICU... One would hope for better.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0 ... 053763.htm

Errr... Any vaccine is better than none. I'll be the first to advocate. But the attenuated virus vaccines are helping, but really need a booster.

Looking,

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... TA~ARE~CHL

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~CHL~ISR

Chile has a higher vaccination rate than Israel, and is coming down to their level.

Indonesia has approved the 3rd dose:
https://www.laprensalatina.com/indonesi ... cine-dose/

Speaking to Metro TV channel, Health Ministry Siti Nadia Tarmizi spokesperson said doctors would begin to inoculate a booster dose of Moderna this week or the next to those who have already received both shots of Sinovac or AstraZeneca.

I approve of both of those vaccines getting boosters. If Sinovac (or Sinopharm) 2 jab and one of mRNA is the quickest way to protect the world, do it.
The UK is being a very interesting case study in Delta. I hope Chile does well when Delta gets there. I take no joy in the spread of this virus. We need to figure out how to make more of the most effective vaccines as no vaccine isn't a good place to be.

Mostly, get a child's vaccine! They need more socialization and that means getting them all from being spreaders.

Lightsaber

China have approved Sinopharm and Sinovac for people aged 3-17 last month.
But they still haven't been able to get the data to Hong Kong government for approval in such age range.

I'm happy there is a vaccine for all children. Now to get one for the Western world. As much as I want my younger child vaccinated, I will wait for mRNA, Novavax, or J&J (preference in that order).

There are two ways to achieve herd immunity:
1. Vaccinate a very high fraction of the population with a moderately effective vaccine (e.g., how we stop most diseases)
2. Vaccinate enough with a highly effective vaccine

Obviously both is even better. This will allow China to slow the spread as soon as they can get all the kids vaccinated.

Hopefully soon there is a western vaccine for 3-11 soon. Very soon. Alas, September prediction.

Lightsaber

With the town in Yunnan, China, vaccinated 97% their adult with two dose, in addition to many younger peope getting a dose already, yet the outbreak still remain uncontained, I think the two conditions need to present together, instead of just allowing either one.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:07 pm

casinterest wrote:
Interesting coverage by CNN of the Right Wing Media and their anti-science anti-vax screeching that is costing the US in a rise in cases and a probably rise in deaths,

https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2021/0 ... ess-media/

Currently per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ekly_table

The US stands at a +67% rise in cases comparing the last 7 days to the previous 7 days
The deaths have risen by +19%

By current estimates 99% of the new deaths are for the unvaccinated.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 972726002/
infection in the US is now rising in almost all states regardless of their political orientation
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:10 pm

c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Interesting coverage by CNN of the Right Wing Media and their anti-science anti-vax screeching that is costing the US in a rise in cases and a probably rise in deaths,

https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2021/0 ... ess-media/

Currently per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ekly_table

The US stands at a +67% rise in cases comparing the last 7 days to the previous 7 days
The deaths have risen by +19%

By current estimates 99% of the new deaths are for the unvaccinated.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 972726002/
infection in the US is now rising in almost all states regardless of their political orientation


You don't get it. Each state has people with different political views. The percentages without vaccination are far higher in the anti science, anti-vax members of the GOP.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:34 pm

casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Interesting coverage by CNN of the Right Wing Media and their anti-science anti-vax screeching that is costing the US in a rise in cases and a probably rise in deaths,

https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2021/0 ... ess-media/

Currently per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ekly_table

The US stands at a +67% rise in cases comparing the last 7 days to the previous 7 days
The deaths have risen by +19%

By current estimates 99% of the new deaths are for the unvaccinated.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 972726002/
infection in the US is now rising in almost all states regardless of their political orientation


You don't get it. Each state has people with different political views. The percentages without vaccination are far higher in the anti science, anti-vax members of the GOP.

i posted links upthread on Unvaccinated pockets in Blue states too. Density matters.

Delta changed the rules:
UK, Netherlands, and Spain have gone "plaid"
Greece, France, Belgium and USA turning up.
https://www.truenoord.com/wp-content/up ... t-2021.pdf

e.g., Long Island had cases double in a week:
https://www.newsday.com/amp/news/health ... 1.50305949

Delta just needs a few unvaccinated families to establish in a neighborhood.

Get out a vaccine for my younger child! :hissyfit:
I'll take any Western vaccine, J&J, Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax, or AZ if approved. Heck, I'd sign a waiver to test the child for a non-placebo vaccine today.

Lightsaber

Late edit:

Increases in 48 states.
https://news.yahoo.com/los-angeles-coun ... 09195.html

California cases more than double in two weeks
I live in an extreamly well vaccinated suburb, but with no < 12 vaccine, that leaves a large opportunity for the virus. I bet into schools and all the vulnerable household members will get it...
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:52 pm

lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 972726002/
infection in the US is now rising in almost all states regardless of their political orientation


You don't get it. Each state has people with different political views. The percentages without vaccination are far higher in the anti science, anti-vax members of the GOP.

i posted links upthread on Unvaccinated pockets in Blue states too. Density matters.

Delta changed the rules:
UK, Netherlands, and Spain have gone "plaid"
Greece, France, Belgium and USA turning up.
https://www.truenoord.com/wp-content/up ... t-2021.pdf

e.g., Long Island had cases double in a week:
https://www.newsday.com/amp/news/health ... 1.50305949

Delta just needs a few unvaccinated families to establish in a neighborhood.

Get out a vaccine for my younger child! :hissyfit:
I'll take any Western vaccine, J&J, Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax, or AZ if approved. Heck, I'd sign a waiver to test the child for a non-placebo vaccine today.

Lightsaber

Late edit:

Increases in 48 states.
https://news.yahoo.com/los-angeles-coun ... 09195.html

California cases more than double in two weeks
I live in an extreamly well vaccinated suburb, but with no < 12 vaccine, that leaves a large opportunity for the virus. I bet into schools and all the vulnerable household members will get it...



Yeah,
As long as the deaths stay with the unvaccinated at +95% or so, I think the issue is rather simple. Get the vaccine.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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par13del
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:55 pm

casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Interesting coverage by CNN of the Right Wing Media and their anti-science anti-vax screeching that is costing the US in a rise in cases and a probably rise in deaths,

https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2021/0 ... ess-media/

Currently per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ekly_table

The US stands at a +67% rise in cases comparing the last 7 days to the previous 7 days
The deaths have risen by +19%

By current estimates 99% of the new deaths are for the unvaccinated.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 972726002/
infection in the US is now rising in almost all states regardless of their political orientation


You don't get it. Each state has people with different political views. The percentages without vaccination are far higher in the anti science, anti-vax members of the GOP.

One does have to wonder why the media is not tracking the infection to hospitals that are political, it is getting tiring to constantly see the mantra being pushed that all anti-vaxxers are Trump supporters.
On another note, as the USA is no longer requiring folks to be residents and or hold social security numbers, an increasing number of Bahamians are traveling to the USA for vaccine tourism. The below is an outlier as most have been doing so on their own, with JJ available, a lot have been doing same day travel.
https://thenassauguardian.com/biminites ... d-vaccine/
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 4:06 pm

par13del wrote:
casinterest wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 972726002/
infection in the US is now rising in almost all states regardless of their political orientation


You don't get it. Each state has people with different political views. The percentages without vaccination are far higher in the anti science, anti-vax members of the GOP.

One does have to wonder why the media is not tracking the infection to hospitals that are political, it is getting tiring to constantly see the mantra being pushed that all anti-vaxxers are Trump supporters.
On another note, as the USA is no longer requiring folks to be residents and or hold social security numbers, an increasing number of Bahamians are traveling to the USA for vaccine tourism. The below is an outlier as most have been doing so on their own, with JJ available, a lot have been doing same day travel.
https://thenassauguardian.com/biminites ... d-vaccine/

The below shows how the cases are rising in counties with less than 40% vaccinated. Also the decline in US vaccinations is apparent leading into July.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/covid-c ... reads.html


An article from the WSJ showed the largest issue.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-drive ... 1623190392
"The partisan gap is astonishing. More than 80% of Democrats have already received at least one shot, compared with 49% of Republicans. Twenty-seven percent of Republicans say that they won’t get vaccinated under any circumstances, and an additional 9% will do so only if required. The comparable figures for Democrats are 3% outright refusal and 3% only if required."
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
descl
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 4:06 pm

par13del wrote:
In Chile did they start booster shots with the Chinese vaccines, I thought I read where that was being looked at when the surges started.

Nope, not yet. This week they started trials to find out if a third dose of pfizer or astrazeneca for people vaccinated with 2 doses of Coronavac increases their immune response, considering that currently it´s believed to last for just 6 months.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 4:35 pm

casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
casinterest wrote:

You don't get it. Each state has people with different political views. The percentages without vaccination are far higher in the anti science, anti-vax members of the GOP.

i posted links upthread on Unvaccinated pockets in Blue states too. Density matters.

Delta changed the rules:
UK, Netherlands, and Spain have gone "plaid"
Greece, France, Belgium and USA turning up.
https://www.truenoord.com/wp-content/up ... t-2021.pdf

e.g., Long Island had cases double in a week:
https://www.newsday.com/amp/news/health ... 1.50305949

Delta just needs a few unvaccinated families to establish in a neighborhood.

Get out a vaccine for my younger child! :hissyfit:
I'll take any Western vaccine, J&J, Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax, or AZ if approved. Heck, I'd sign a waiver to test the child for a non-placebo vaccine today.

Lightsaber

Late edit:

Increases in 48 states.
https://news.yahoo.com/los-angeles-coun ... 09195.html

California cases more than double in two weeks
I live in an extreamly well vaccinated suburb, but with no < 12 vaccine, that leaves a large opportunity for the virus. I bet into schools and all the vulnerable household members will get it...



Yeah,
As long as the deaths stay with the unvaccinated at +95% or so, I think the issue is rather simple. Get the vaccine.


I wish it is that simple, but CDC's no-mask stupidity putting vaccinated people also at risk. MA is highly vaccinated state.
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/07/14/ ... d-july-10/

I am glad California, LA County in particular doing the right thing. They are going to save lot of lives vaccinated or otherwise.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/health/c ... index.html
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... t-spreads/
All posts are just opinions.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 4:39 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
casinterest wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
i posted links upthread on Unvaccinated pockets in Blue states too. Density matters.

Delta changed the rules:
UK, Netherlands, and Spain have gone "plaid"
Greece, France, Belgium and USA turning up.
https://www.truenoord.com/wp-content/up ... t-2021.pdf

e.g., Long Island had cases double in a week:
https://www.newsday.com/amp/news/health ... 1.50305949

Delta just needs a few unvaccinated families to establish in a neighborhood.

Get out a vaccine for my younger child! :hissyfit:
I'll take any Western vaccine, J&J, Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax, or AZ if approved. Heck, I'd sign a waiver to test the child for a non-placebo vaccine today.

Lightsaber

Late edit:

Increases in 48 states.
https://news.yahoo.com/los-angeles-coun ... 09195.html

California cases more than double in two weeks
I live in an extreamly well vaccinated suburb, but with no < 12 vaccine, that leaves a large opportunity for the virus. I bet into schools and all the vulnerable household members will get it...



Yeah,
As long as the deaths stay with the unvaccinated at +95% or so, I think the issue is rather simple. Get the vaccine.


I wish it is that simple, but CDC's no-mask stupidity putting vaccinated people also at risk. MA is highly vaccinated state.
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/07/14/ ... d-july-10/

I am glad California, LA County in particular doing the right thing. They are going to save lot of lives vaccinated or otherwise.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/health/c ... index.html
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... t-spreads/

???
From your article.

BOSTON (CBS) — According to new numbers from the Massachusetts Department of Health, there are 4,450 breakthrough COVID cases and 79 deaths among the fully vaccinated population in the state.

As of July 10, only 0.1 percent of the 4,195,844 fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts tested positive for the virus after getting the vaccine.


It is tragic that there are breakthrough cases, but it is well within the range of "Normal Flu"
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:18 pm

Challenger007 wrote:
I was vaccinated with Sinovac vaccine, there was no side effect, I feel great.


Funny how that same exact statement was made on another site, not by you...

Vac Campaign Statement??
Last edited by DIRECTFLT on Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:18 pm

casinterest wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Yeah,
As long as the deaths stay with the unvaccinated at +95% or so, I think the issue is rather simple. Get the vaccine.


I wish it is that simple, but CDC's no-mask stupidity putting vaccinated people also at risk. MA is highly vaccinated state.
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/07/14/ ... d-july-10/

I am glad California, LA County in particular doing the right thing. They are going to save lot of lives vaccinated or otherwise.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/health/c ... index.html
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... t-spreads/

???
From your article.

BOSTON (CBS) — According to new numbers from the Massachusetts Department of Health, there are 4,450 breakthrough COVID cases and 79 deaths among the fully vaccinated population in the state.

As of July 10, only 0.1 percent of the 4,195,844 fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts tested positive for the virus after getting the vaccine.


It is tragic that there are breakthrough cases, but it is well within the range of "Normal Flu"


Question is not 0.1% or 0.01%, these deaths are unnecessary. All CDC need to do is to keep its mouth shut.

Fall school opening is going to be a major trigger event.

No vaccine for below 12, modest vaccine rates among 12-18. 29-49 anti-vaxxers. All walking around without masks and no restrictions.

Unless government has a plan to control spread at schools, we are in for a dark winter.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:27 pm

Let's try this again....

The U.S. Surgeon General Is Calling COVID-19 Misinformation An 'Urgent Threat'

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... ent-threat

On Thursday, Dr. Vivek Murthy released the first surgeon general's advisory of his time serving in the Biden administration, describing the "urgent threat" posed by the rise of false information around COVID-19 — one that continues to put "lives at risk" and prolong the pandemic.

Murthy says Americans must do their part to fight misinformation.

In some cases, he says, the simplest way to stop the spread is to not share something questionable you read online: "If you're not sure, not sharing is often the prudent thing to do."

The Source Document:
US Surgeon General Advisory
https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files ... visory.pdf

So the msg is... "If you see something online, don't say something..."
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:41 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
casinterest wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

I wish it is that simple, but CDC's no-mask stupidity putting vaccinated people also at risk. MA is highly vaccinated state.
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/07/14/ ... d-july-10/

I am glad California, LA County in particular doing the right thing. They are going to save lot of lives vaccinated or otherwise.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/health/c ... index.html
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... t-spreads/

???
From your article.

BOSTON (CBS) — According to new numbers from the Massachusetts Department of Health, there are 4,450 breakthrough COVID cases and 79 deaths among the fully vaccinated population in the state.

As of July 10, only 0.1 percent of the 4,195,844 fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts tested positive for the virus after getting the vaccine.


It is tragic that there are breakthrough cases, but it is well within the range of "Normal Flu"


Question is not 0.1% or 0.01%, these deaths are unnecessary. All CDC need to do is to keep its mouth shut.

Fall school opening is going to be a major trigger event.

No vaccine for below 12, modest vaccine rates among 12-18. 29-49 anti-vaxxers. All walking around without masks and no restrictions.

Unless government has a plan to control spread at schools, we are in for a dark winter.


The deaths will only go to 0 if we get lucky and get everyone vaccinated. It looks like that isn't going to happen. The CDC keeping it's mouth shut does not work. there are too many idiots in this country that overtake vacuums with misinformation. Just turn and look at your closest Right wing friends. Any garbage that reinforces their ignorance will instantly be absorbed.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 6:44 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
casinterest wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

I wish it is that simple, but CDC's no-mask stupidity putting vaccinated people also at risk. MA is highly vaccinated state.
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/07/14/ ... d-july-10/

I am glad California, LA County in particular doing the right thing. They are going to save lot of lives vaccinated or otherwise.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/health/c ... index.html
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-co ... t-spreads/

???
From your article.

BOSTON (CBS) — According to new numbers from the Massachusetts Department of Health, there are 4,450 breakthrough COVID cases and 79 deaths among the fully vaccinated population in the state.

As of July 10, only 0.1 percent of the 4,195,844 fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts tested positive for the virus after getting the vaccine.


It is tragic that there are breakthrough cases, but it is well within the range of "Normal Flu"


Question is not 0.1% or 0.01%, these deaths are unnecessary. All CDC need to do is to keep its mouth shut.

Fall school opening is going to be a major trigger event.

No vaccine for below 12, modest vaccine rates among 12-18. 29-49 anti-vaxxers. All walking around without masks and no restrictions.

Unless government has a plan to control spread at schools, we are in for a dark winter.

Unless a vaccine is available soon (if 2-dose) school start is already doomed. I've heard nothing about J&J for younger.

We need down to preschool (age 3) to keep from having a dark winter.

Fully unvaccinated households will bear the worst of this.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:51 pm

lightsaber wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
casinterest wrote:
???
From your article.

BOSTON (CBS) — According to new numbers from the Massachusetts Department of Health, there are 4,450 breakthrough COVID cases and 79 deaths among the fully vaccinated population in the state.



It is tragic that there are breakthrough cases, but it is well within the range of "Normal Flu"


Question is not 0.1% or 0.01%, these deaths are unnecessary. All CDC need to do is to keep its mouth shut.

Fall school opening is going to be a major trigger event.

No vaccine for below 12, modest vaccine rates among 12-18. 29-49 anti-vaxxers. All walking around without masks and no restrictions.

Unless government has a plan to control spread at schools, we are in for a dark winter.

Unless a vaccine is available soon (if 2-dose) school start is already doomed. I've heard nothing about J&J for younger.

We need down to preschool (age 3) to keep from having a dark winter.

Fully unvaccinated households will bear the worst of this.

Lightsaber



The issue though is that kids are not showing high susceptibility ...."yet" to covid.
If we get new studies showing Long Haul, and deaths are significantly affected by Delta above and beyond the flu, then we reevaluate

Until then, I think kids will be rolling back to school, and the unvaccinated older folks either have "Tiger Blood" or they will succumb.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 8:24 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
Let's try this again....

The U.S. Surgeon General Is Calling COVID-19 Misinformation An 'Urgent Threat'

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... ent-threat

On Thursday, Dr. Vivek Murthy released the first surgeon general's advisory of his time serving in the Biden administration, describing the "urgent threat" posed by the rise of false information around COVID-19 — one that continues to put "lives at risk" and prolong the pandemic.

Murthy says Americans must do their part to fight misinformation.

In some cases, he says, the simplest way to stop the spread is to not share something questionable you read online: "If you're not sure, not sharing is often the prudent thing to do."

The Source Document:
US Surgeon General Advisory
https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files ... visory.pdf

So the msg is... "If you see something online, don't say something..."


He could have said this to Walensky and Fauci privately.

Walensky insists on no mask, but says volunteers at shelters and those with pre-existing conditions should wear one indoors.

Everyone who got vaccine prior to May 1, 2021 were supposed to be qualified by age or pre-existing conditions. That is 100 Million people. Leaves only 50 Million fully vaccinated "healthy". When majority has age or other pre-existing medical conditions, why CDC guidance says no-masks.

Pfizer says we need a booster, probably based the on global data. Fauci says Pfizer is Pharma company, trying to sell third dose. Who should public believe?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQ95wSZqkHE
All posts are just opinions.
 
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lightsaber
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Posts: 22681
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 8:48 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
Let's try this again....

The U.S. Surgeon General Is Calling COVID-19 Misinformation An 'Urgent Threat'

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... ent-threat

On Thursday, Dr. Vivek Murthy released the first surgeon general's advisory of his time serving in the Biden administration, describing the "urgent threat" posed by the rise of false information around COVID-19 — one that continues to put "lives at risk" and prolong the pandemic.

Murthy says Americans must do their part to fight misinformation.

In some cases, he says, the simplest way to stop the spread is to not share something questionable you read online: "If you're not sure, not sharing is often the prudent thing to do."

The Source Document:
US Surgeon General Advisory
https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files ... visory.pdf

So the msg is... "If you see something online, don't say something..."


He could have said this to Walensky and Fauci privately.

Walensky insists on no mask, but says volunteers at shelters and those with pre-existing conditions should wear one indoors.

Everyone who got vaccine prior to May 1, 2021 were supposed to be qualified by age or pre-existing conditions. That is 100 Million people. Leaves only 50 Million fully vaccinated "healthy". When majority has age or other pre-existing medical conditions, why CDC guidance says no-masks.

Pfizer says we need a booster, probably based the on global data. Fauci says Pfizer is Pharma company, trying to sell third dose. Who should public believe?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQ95wSZqkHE

And then my jaw dropped. It slipped my mind that 2/3rds of the vaccinated are fragile... Except, early includes essential workers. e.g., one of my nephews was front line grocery and that super healthy 18 year old (Captain of the high school football team) was vaccinated early as well as medical, dental, first responders, and some military.

I want a 3rd dose due to lack of vaccination. This link us ten days old, but slow vaccination rates mean things have only gotten a little better:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cause ... NewsSearch

Around San Francisco should be doing well due to high vaccinations.


San Diego County middle ground

Los Angeles county just past half vaccinated, but very distributed by community.

Yet San Francisco has outbreaks, 100% in unvaccinated in the hospital:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sf-of ... NewsSearch

I don't understand in this state being unvaccinated, it is a choice:
1. You get paid to get vaccinated and for time you are down due to side effects (I took 4.5 hours off total, paid).
2. Free Uber to/from vaccine sites
3. Free vaccines

I know people who gamed the system for vaccines.

But lack of vaccines means more exposure, which means a higher level of effectiveness is required.

Israel is 3rd jabbing at risk people:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/israel ... 1626110100

Seeing 64% effectiveness vs. Delta?

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/i ... 1625582964

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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c933103
Posts: 5680
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Jul 15, 2021 9:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
Let's try this again....

The U.S. Surgeon General Is Calling COVID-19 Misinformation An 'Urgent Threat'

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... ent-threat

On Thursday, Dr. Vivek Murthy released the first surgeon general's advisory of his time serving in the Biden administration, describing the "urgent threat" posed by the rise of false information around COVID-19 — one that continues to put "lives at risk" and prolong the pandemic.

Murthy says Americans must do their part to fight misinformation.

In some cases, he says, the simplest way to stop the spread is to not share something questionable you read online: "If you're not sure, not sharing is often the prudent thing to do."

The Source Document:
US Surgeon General Advisory
https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files ... visory.pdf

So the msg is... "If you see something online, don't say something..."


He could have said this to Walensky and Fauci privately.

Walensky insists on no mask, but says volunteers at shelters and those with pre-existing conditions should wear one indoors.

Everyone who got vaccine prior to May 1, 2021 were supposed to be qualified by age or pre-existing conditions. That is 100 Million people. Leaves only 50 Million fully vaccinated "healthy". When majority has age or other pre-existing medical conditions, why CDC guidance says no-masks.

Pfizer says we need a booster, probably based the on global data. Fauci says Pfizer is Pharma company, trying to sell third dose. Who should public believe?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQ95wSZqkHE

And then my jaw dropped. It slipped my mind that 2/3rds of the vaccinated are fragile... Except, early includes essential workers. e.g., one of my nephews was front line grocery and that super healthy 18 year old (Captain of the high school football team) was vaccinated early as well as medical, dental, first responders, and some military.

I want a 3rd dose due to lack of vaccination. This link us ten days old, but slow vaccination rates mean things have only gotten a little better:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cause ... NewsSearch

Around San Francisco should be doing well due to high vaccinations.


San Diego County middle ground

Los Angeles county just past half vaccinated, but very distributed by community.

Yet San Francisco has outbreaks, 100% in unvaccinated in the hospital:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sf-of ... NewsSearch

I don't understand in this state being unvaccinated, it is a choice:
1. You get paid to get vaccinated and for time you are down due to side effects (I took 4.5 hours off total, paid).
2. Free Uber to/from vaccine sites
3. Free vaccines

I know people who gamed the system for vaccines.

But lack of vaccines means more exposure, which means a higher level of effectiveness is required.

Israel is 3rd jabbing at risk people:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/israel ... 1626110100

Seeing 64% effectiveness vs. Delta?

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/i ... 1625582964

Lightsaber

question
Is approving the third dose best for ending the pandemic considering the still lack of vaccine supply in many countries around the world? Surely a third dose can boost efficiency but the effect of those dose would be greater on those still yet to be vaccinated
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Jul 16, 2021 12:14 am

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

He could have said this to Walensky and Fauci privately.

Walensky insists on no mask, but says volunteers at shelters and those with pre-existing conditions should wear one indoors.

Everyone who got vaccine prior to May 1, 2021 were supposed to be qualified by age or pre-existing conditions. That is 100 Million people. Leaves only 50 Million fully vaccinated "healthy". When majority has age or other pre-existing medical conditions, why CDC guidance says no-masks.

Pfizer says we need a booster, probably based the on global data. Fauci says Pfizer is Pharma company, trying to sell third dose. Who should public believe?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQ95wSZqkHE

And then my jaw dropped. It slipped my mind that 2/3rds of the vaccinated are fragile... Except, early includes essential workers. e.g., one of my nephews was front line grocery and that super healthy 18 year old (Captain of the high school football team) was vaccinated early as well as medical, dental, first responders, and some military.

I want a 3rd dose due to lack of vaccination. This link us ten days old, but slow vaccination rates mean things have only gotten a little better:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cause ... NewsSearch

Around San Francisco should be doing well due to high vaccinations.


San Diego County middle ground

Los Angeles county just past half vaccinated, but very distributed by community.

Yet San Francisco has outbreaks, 100% in unvaccinated in the hospital:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sf-of ... NewsSearch

I don't understand in this state being unvaccinated, it is a choice:
1. You get paid to get vaccinated and for time you are down due to side effects (I took 4.5 hours off total, paid).
2. Free Uber to/from vaccine sites
3. Free vaccines

I know people who gamed the system for vaccines.

But lack of vaccines means more exposure, which means a higher level of effectiveness is required.

Israel is 3rd jabbing at risk people:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/israel ... 1626110100

Seeing 64% effectiveness vs. Delta?

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/i ... 1625582964

Lightsaber

question
Is approving the third dose best for ending the pandemic considering the still lack of vaccine supply in many countries around the world? Surely a third dose can boost efficiency but the effect of those dose would be greater on those still yet to be vaccinated


We have contracts for 600 Million doses from Pfizer & Moderna, not including J&J. Over 300 Million used. There will be plenty for booster dose assuming anti-vaxxers never going going to get and dosage is same. International supply and donations are on top of US orders.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 15659
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Jul 16, 2021 12:14 am

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

He could have said this to Walensky and Fauci privately.

Walensky insists on no mask, but says volunteers at shelters and those with pre-existing conditions should wear one indoors.

Everyone who got vaccine prior to May 1, 2021 were supposed to be qualified by age or pre-existing conditions. That is 100 Million people. Leaves only 50 Million fully vaccinated "healthy". When majority has age or other pre-existing medical conditions, why CDC guidance says no-masks.

Pfizer says we need a booster, probably based the on global data. Fauci says Pfizer is Pharma company, trying to sell third dose. Who should public believe?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQ95wSZqkHE

And then my jaw dropped. It slipped my mind that 2/3rds of the vaccinated are fragile... Except, early includes essential workers. e.g., one of my nephews was front line grocery and that super healthy 18 year old (Captain of the high school football team) was vaccinated early as well as medical, dental, first responders, and some military.

I want a 3rd dose due to lack of vaccination. This link us ten days old, but slow vaccination rates mean things have only gotten a little better:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cause ... NewsSearch

Around San Francisco should be doing well due to high vaccinations.


San Diego County middle ground

Los Angeles county just past half vaccinated, but very distributed by community.

Yet San Francisco has outbreaks, 100% in unvaccinated in the hospital:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sf-of ... NewsSearch

I don't understand in this state being unvaccinated, it is a choice:
1. You get paid to get vaccinated and for time you are down due to side effects (I took 4.5 hours off total, paid).
2. Free Uber to/from vaccine sites
3. Free vaccines

I know people who gamed the system for vaccines.

But lack of vaccines means more exposure, which means a higher level of effectiveness is required.

Israel is 3rd jabbing at risk people:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/israel ... 1626110100

Seeing 64% effectiveness vs. Delta?

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/i ... 1625582964

Lightsaber

question
Is approving the third dose best for ending the pandemic considering the still lack of vaccine supply in many countries around the world? Surely a third dose can boost efficiency but the effect of those dose would be greater on those still yet to be vaccinated


The discussion is moot with major news networks still putting out misinformation like this

https://twitter.com/aliciasadowski6/sta ... 81058?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1987
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Jul 16, 2021 12:55 am

With a current outbreak in Sydney, Australia, the advisory that AZ is best for 60+ only has been wound back to 40+, with under 40s also able to access AZ if they do so informed of the TTS risk. Pfizer is still in short supply, and focussed on priority groups.

With an eye towards boosters in 2022, my GP is also happy to reduce the time between doses to 6 weeks or even less. This trades off the apparent longer term coverage of a 12 week gap for the nearer term coverage and a later.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/ Q100/200/E195/ 733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/ 320/321/332/333/345/359
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Jul 16, 2021 11:15 am

Aaron747 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
And then my jaw dropped. It slipped my mind that 2/3rds of the vaccinated are fragile... Except, early includes essential workers. e.g., one of my nephews was front line grocery and that super healthy 18 year old (Captain of the high school football team) was vaccinated early as well as medical, dental, first responders, and some military.

I want a 3rd dose due to lack of vaccination. This link us ten days old, but slow vaccination rates mean things have only gotten a little better:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cause ... NewsSearch

Around San Francisco should be doing well due to high vaccinations.


San Diego County middle ground

Los Angeles county just past half vaccinated, but very distributed by community.

Yet San Francisco has outbreaks, 100% in unvaccinated in the hospital:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sf-of ... NewsSearch

I don't understand in this state being unvaccinated, it is a choice:
1. You get paid to get vaccinated and for time you are down due to side effects (I took 4.5 hours off total, paid).
2. Free Uber to/from vaccine sites
3. Free vaccines

I know people who gamed the system for vaccines.

But lack of vaccines means more exposure, which means a higher level of effectiveness is required.

Israel is 3rd jabbing at risk people:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/israel ... 1626110100

Seeing 64% effectiveness vs. Delta?

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/i ... 1625582964

Lightsaber

question
Is approving the third dose best for ending the pandemic considering the still lack of vaccine supply in many countries around the world? Surely a third dose can boost efficiency but the effect of those dose would be greater on those still yet to be vaccinated


The discussion is moot with major news networks still putting out misinformation like this

https://twitter.com/aliciasadowski6/sta ... 81058?s=21

Well... if the kids could get vaccinated, it wouldn't matter so much that people want to have long haul symptoms. Ugh, my younger child asked me if I would regain all my taste and I told the truth, I'm afraid that I won't regain any more taste. If people want that and worse...

As to the 3rd dose, if we could get enough out to stop variants, I would agree the best thing is to vaccinate everyone. However, we cannot. Not in 2021. So now what is best for the nation? For the world, it is ensuring the morale of health care, first responders, essential workers (including teachers) and that means a 3rd jab must be offered. We need more vaccine and it is coming.



Long term, all this added vaccine production will help us. I'm excited by mRNA influenza vaccines (get a flu shot that works!).
https://www.slashgear.com/modernas-late ... -07681541/

Moderna has converted an old Polaroid factory. One line to start in the fall, one early in 2022. This will help supply boosters as well as export to the rest of the world:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moder ... =home-page

SII on track for over 100 million doses per month this month and going forward:https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/110-million-covishield-doses-produced-in-july-says-serum-institute-2485589
Also ramping up Novavax production (I'll believe it when I see it, that vaccine is always two months from greatness, it feels like a stock pump to me.)

Bharat Biotech's Covaxin (I dislike, a lot, on how Indian vaccines have multiple names) is at 25 million doses/month go to 60+ million after August: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 40098.html

No, that isn't endorsing an attenuated virus vaccine. However, as they are easier to produce, get everyone two jabs of those and then one jab of mRNA seems to be a great solution.


More countries need to make vaccine. We're now at 3.5 billion doses administered globally and that isn't enough to matter:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumu ... A~OWID_WRL

So I am advocating a 3rd jab now to those I care about since so many won't get vaccinated. I care about those that cannot get a vaccine and thus I'm happy that the global vaccine producer, India, is ramping up significantly.


Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
art
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Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Jul 16, 2021 4:14 pm

UK got Delta first in Europe so these figures might give a guide to how the infection will spread elsewhere in Europe and the world.

England rolling 7 day average confirmed infections

June
01 - 03,304
08 - 05,429
15 - 07,468
22 - 10,181
29 - 17,616
July
06 - 26,327
13 - 33,227

% population vaccinated
June 01
1st jab - 59%
2nd jab - 39%
July 13
1st jab - 69%
2nd jab - 52%

It does not help that England's rolling 7 day jab average dropped from 464K June 01 to 191K July 13, a drop of 59%. I don't think that UK journalists have shown any interest in the dramatic drop. I have not heard them raising the issue.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:02 pm

art wrote:
UK got Delta first in Europe so these figures might give a guide to how the infection will spread elsewhere in Europe and the world.

England rolling 7 day average confirmed infections

June
01 - 03,304
08 - 05,429
15 - 07,468
22 - 10,181
29 - 17,616
July
06 - 26,327
13 - 33,227

% population vaccinated
June 01
1st jab - 59%
2nd jab - 39%
July 13
1st jab - 69%
2nd jab - 52%

It does not help that England's rolling 7 day jab average dropped from 464K June 01 to 191K July 13, a drop of 59%. I don't think that UK journalists have shown any interest in the dramatic drop. I have not heard them raising the issue.

Good news is the weekly rate of increase is slowing, so not exponential. It is growing 1.26X prior week instead 1.64. However, June 29th week vs June 22nd breaks trend.

Is that a delay of the May restaurant and pub indoor dining? Seems a little long time line.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... at-britain

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
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par13del
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Jul 16, 2021 7:35 pm

Let's not forget the Euro 2020 tournament, lot's of no mask assembly even when they travelled for away matches.
There was some tentative figures seen on a web site, will revisit if found will post.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:39 pm

[quote="lightsaber"
No, that isn't endorsing an attenuated virus vaccine. However, as they are easier to produce, get everyone two jabs of those and then one jab of mRNA seems to be a great solution. [/quote]

There are currently no attenuated vaccines in use for COVID-19. An attenuated vaccine traditionally used a virus that was passaged under conditions quite different from the human body. This caused the virus to lose various properties that made it dangerous. For Poliovirus type 2, it lost its ability to infect neurons. For measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, these strains underwent multiple alterations to genes that impact immune evasion and cell permissivity. For rotavirus, the strains used are reassortment variants optimized to infect other species or optimized to replicate at lower temperatures than those encountered in the human body. The development of these vaccines is a lengthy process of trial-and-error and relies to a large degree on happenstance. Moreover, some attenuated vaccines (famously Poliovirus type 2) can revert to their wild-type form and cause disease outbreaks.

India's CODAGENIX is working on a new way of attenuating SARS-CoV-2 by deoptimizing its genetic code. If you remember from 7th grade, in the genetic code, there are 64 possible codons (combinations of three nucleic acid bases) but only 20 amino acids. So multiple different codons can code for a given amino acid. However, in each species there are codons that are "preferred" and putting in a "non-preferred" codon can greatly reduce the amount of that protein produced. When the mRNA companies designed their products, they "optimized" the codons for use in human cells so as to provide the most protein production. CODAGENIX is coding an entire SARS-CoV-2 virus with a fully "deoptimized" genetic code in which every codon is the absolute worst choice. In addition to reducing the amount of protein produced, the viral RNA itself also forms complex structures by self-pairing and so deoptimization greatly impacts viral protein production and immune evasion/manipulation of infected cells, yielding a very slowly-replicating virus that doesn't inhibit the immune system. This vaccine candidate can be given as a single nasal dose and so far the preclinical data look very promising. In addition, because of the magnitude of the changes to the vaccine strain, it will be very unlikely for it to revert to wild-type.

The current vaccines that do use the whole virus are inactivated vaccines in which wild-type virus is grown in cell culture and then inactivated with a toxic chemical (beta propiolactone is what's used currently). This chemical is then washed out (or in the case of beta propiolactone, allowed to evaporate out) and then the vaccine is mixed with other ingredients and packaged.

Historically, this kind of vaccine has a mixed history. It worked fairly well for polio, although standardization of the antigen content after 1988 resulted in a much more effective vaccine than the original IPV (Salk). However, inactivated vaccines for flu are poorly immunogenic and have only modest efficacy. An inactivated measles vaccine developed in the 1960s also had modest efficacy. An inactivated RSV vaccine developed in the 1960s actually led to disease enhancement and two children in that trial died of RSV. For COVID-19, this style of vaccine appears to prevent severe disease, but the overall efficacy against disease and transmission is modest. Inactivated vaccines seem to have done a much better job with bacterial illnesses such as pertussis.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Jul 16, 2021 9:24 pm

DocLightning wrote:
[quote="lightsaber"
No, that isn't endorsing an attenuated virus vaccine. However, as they are easier to produce, get everyone two jabs of those and then one jab of mRNA seems to be a great solution.


There are currently no attenuated vaccines in use for COVID-19. An attenuated vaccine traditionally used a virus that was passaged under conditions quite different from the human body. This caused the virus to lose various properties that made it dangerous. For Poliovirus type 2, it lost its ability to infect neurons. For measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, these strains underwent multiple alterations to genes that impact immune evasion and cell permissivity. For rotavirus, the strains used are reassortment variants optimized to infect other species or optimized to replicate at lower temperatures than those encountered in the human body. The development of these vaccines is a lengthy process of trial-and-error and relies to a large degree on happenstance. Moreover, some attenuated vaccines (famously Poliovirus type 2) can revert to their wild-type form and cause disease outbreaks.

India's CODAGENIX is working on a new way of attenuating SARS-CoV-2 by deoptimizing its genetic code. If you remember from 7th grade, in the genetic code, there are 64 possible codons (combinations of three nucleic acid bases) but only 20 amino acids. So multiple different codons can code for a given amino acid. However, in each species there are codons that are "preferred" and putting in a "non-preferred" codon can greatly reduce the amount of that protein produced. When the mRNA companies designed their products, they "optimized" the codons for use in human cells so as to provide the most protein production. CODAGENIX is coding an entire SARS-CoV-2 virus with a fully "deoptimized" genetic code in which every codon is the absolute worst choice. In addition to reducing the amount of protein produced, the viral RNA itself also forms complex structures by self-pairing and so deoptimization greatly impacts viral protein production and immune evasion/manipulation of infected cells, yielding a very slowly-replicating virus that doesn't inhibit the immune system. This vaccine candidate can be given as a single nasal dose and so far the preclinical data look very promising. In addition, because of the magnitude of the changes to the vaccine strain, it will be very unlikely for it to revert to wild-type.

The current vaccines that do use the whole virus are inactivated vaccines in which wild-type virus is grown in cell culture and then inactivated with a toxic chemical (beta propiolactone is what's used currently). This chemical is then washed out (or in the case of beta propiolactone, allowed to evaporate out) and then the vaccine is mixed with other ingredients and packaged.

Historically, this kind of vaccine has a mixed history. It worked fairly well for polio, although standardization of the antigen content after 1988 resulted in a much more effective vaccine than the original IPV (Salk). However, inactivated vaccines for flu are poorly immunogenic and have only modest efficacy. An inactivated measles vaccine developed in the 1960s also had modest efficacy. An inactivated RSV vaccine developed in the 1960s actually led to disease enhancement and two children in that trial died of RSV. For COVID-19, this style of vaccine appears to prevent severe disease, but the overall efficacy against disease and transmission is modest. Inactivated vaccines seem to have done a much better job with bacterial illnesses such as pertussis.[/quote]
Sinivac and Sinopharm and such from China are attenuated virus vaccine
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 22230
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Jul 16, 2021 11:28 pm

c933103 wrote:
Sinivac and Sinopharm and such from China are attenuated virus vaccine


They are inactivated, not attenuated. Here is a NYT article covering the product.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18742
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Jul 17, 2021 3:17 am

casinterest wrote:
Interesting coverage by CNN of the Right Wing Media and their anti-science anti-vax screeching that is costing the US in a rise in cases and a probably rise in deaths,

https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2021/0 ... ess-media/

Currently per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ekly_table

The US stands at a +67% rise in cases comparing the last 7 days to the previous 7 days
The deaths have risen by +19%

By current estimates 99% of the new deaths are for the unvaccinated.

Are conservatives going to bring hydroxychloroquine back? And demon semen lady?
I don't take responsibility at all
 
art
Posts: 4170
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:34 am

lightsaber wrote:
art wrote:
UK got Delta first in Europe so these figures might give a guide to how the infection will spread elsewhere in Europe and the world.

England rolling 7 day average confirmed infections

June
01 - 03,304
08 - 05,429
15 - 07,468
22 - 10,181
29 - 17,616
July
06 - 26,327
13 - 33,227

% population vaccinated
June 01
1st jab - 59%
2nd jab - 39%
July 13
1st jab - 69%
2nd jab - 52%

It does not help that England's rolling 7 day jab average dropped from 464K June 01 to 191K July 13, a drop of 59%. I don't think that UK journalists have shown any interest in the dramatic drop. I have not heard them raising the issue.

Good news is the weekly rate of increase is slowing, so not exponential. It is growing 1.26X prior week instead 1.64. However, June 29th week vs June 22nd breaks trend.

Is that a delay of the May restaurant and pub indoor dining? Seems a little long time line.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... at-britain

Lightsaber


Obviously 'opening up' with more social interaction and more people gathering in confined spaces in England is bound to encourage increased transmission. How much is unknown to me. Delphi supplanting Alpha in England is also bound to encourage increased transmission. How much is also unknown to me.

Unfortunately, despite the blip you noticed, daily infections continue to rise fast in England. I expect the 7 day running average to rise from 33K July 13 to 45K-50K July 20.

I do not know how many infectees are becoming sick enough to need hospital treatment but deaths, mercifully, are low here. Peak 7 day average end Jan 2021 / start Feb 2021 was 1,000+ deaths per day. It is currently at least 95% lower.

PS I think our government has lost track of the real picture. They move various other countries around between low risk/medium risk/high risk categories requiring no quarantining or alternatively days of quarantining on return to England when UK citizens' chance of catching COVID-19 is far lower in other countries than here in England! If anything, the people who need quarantining are the people who have stayed in England, rather than those who have travelled abroad.
 
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c933103
Posts: 5680
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Jul 18, 2021 9:00 am

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOCA ... 1A7000000/

Nikkei: While many Asian countries still have shortage in vaccines, vaccine producers including mainly European countries and America now have more than 150 Million dose of excess vaccines in stock, as they now considering the third dose option.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:51 pm

CDC has an updated guidance for immunocompromised individuals. IMHO this recommendation is too late. In a country full of people against masks, asking some to go back to wearing masks after boldly disowning, is like putting genie back in the bottle.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday warned people who are immunocompromised that the Covid-19 vaccine may not have been effective for them and encouraged them to take precautions as if they were not vaccinated.

"People who are immunocompromised should be counseled about the potential for reduced immune responses to COVID-19 vaccines and to follow current prevention measures (including wearing a mask, staying 6 feet apart from others staying they don't live with, and avoiding crowds and poorly ventilated indoor spaces) to protect themselves against COVID-19 until advised otherwise by their healthcare provider,"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/16/health/c ... index.html
All posts are just opinions.
 
NIKV69
Posts: 14396
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Jul 18, 2021 1:35 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
CDC has an updated guidance for immunocompromised individuals. IMHO this recommendation is too late. In a country full of people against masks, asking some to go back to wearing masks after boldly disowning, is like putting genie back in the bottle.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday warned people who are immunocompromised that the Covid-19 vaccine may not have been effective for them and encouraged them to take precautions as if they were not vaccinated.

"People who are immunocompromised should be counseled about the potential for reduced immune responses to COVID-19 vaccines and to follow current prevention measures (including wearing a mask, staying 6 feet apart from others staying they don't live with, and avoiding crowds and poorly ventilated indoor spaces) to protect themselves against COVID-19 until advised otherwise by their healthcare provider,"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/16/health/c ... index.html


We pulled the mask rule too early, I am wearing mine indoor public places until this goes in the other direction.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 5680
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Jul 18, 2021 3:27 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
CDC has an updated guidance for immunocompromised individuals. IMHO this recommendation is too late. In a country full of people against masks, asking some to go back to wearing masks after boldly disowning, is like putting genie back in the bottle.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday warned people who are immunocompromised that the Covid-19 vaccine may not have been effective for them and encouraged them to take precautions as if they were not vaccinated.

"People who are immunocompromised should be counseled about the potential for reduced immune responses to COVID-19 vaccines and to follow current prevention measures (including wearing a mask, staying 6 feet apart from others staying they don't live with, and avoiding crowds and poorly ventilated indoor spaces) to protect themselves against COVID-19 until advised otherwise by their healthcare provider,"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/16/health/c ... index.html

In the pandemic, mask especially as cloth masks and such, are main being used for their source reduction effect, as aerosolized virus particles are too fine for such kind of masks to filter.
If the CDC is introducing such guidance, including the mask rule, to immunocompromised people with protection effect in mind, then it must explain clearly differences in different type of masks and which one they should pick.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Jul 18, 2021 4:19 pm

c933103 wrote:
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOCA134AH0T10C21A7000000/

Nikkei: While many Asian countries still have shortage in vaccines, vaccine producers including mainly European countries and America now have more than 150 Million dose of excess vaccines in stock, as they now considering the third dose option.

I'll admit I didn't translate. As I posted before, I am an advocate of a 3rd dose. UK research seems to show benefits, but we need more vaccine combinations.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57636356

I hear anecdotally of people who had J&J getting mRNA. A wise course of action. Unfortunately, some times you cannot wait for data as an individual.

I think we need to produce more vaccine of any effective type to slow the creation of variants and then boosters as a thank you to those willingly vaccinated.

We do need to ship more to Asia. I posted links upthread on how SII and Bharat Pharm are boosting production as well as Moderna's two extra lines coming into duty this fall/beginning of next year.

South Korea is discussing production with Moderna and has a contract for AZ. They also will do NovaVax:
https://www.smarteranalyst.com/stock-ne ... eport/amp/

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/20 ... 00335.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-04-12/

Japan is producing AZ:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/ ... ine-japan/

The fix for Asia is more vaccine production in Asia.
We all know about the small circle in Asia where half the worlds population lives within the circle:
https://science.howstuffworks.com/envir ... lation.htm

The reality is with India having been the vaccine producer of the world, the Western world isn't setup to produce the volume Asia needs. Pfizer wasn't a big vaccine producer before this all started. Moderna is a company where the coronavirus vaccine is their first commercial product. There was only political will to support them in bulk thanks to project warp speed, in my opinion; which also put funding in Merck (failed), Sanofi (failed but still trying), NovaVax (always 2 months away from greatness) and one other I'm forgetting (I assume J&J, but we've discussed so many times, I'm being lazy).

I've been reading on what is needed for the next generation of Covid19 vaccines and adrenovirus (J&J, AZ, Sputnik V), mRNA, and the various micro/"nano" protein vaccines too (NovaVax) seem adaptable in my opinion. With those vaccine boosters we could achieve herd immunity.

So sadly, global demand is going to be 7.7 billion * 3 or 23+ billion jabs+ wastage + over-vaccination prior to next generation boosters. So the use of 150 million doses might be frustrating to those really needing them; that quantity is in the noise. We are past 3.5 billion doses administered.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumu ... ID_WRL~IDN

Lightsaber
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