This idea of getting people vaccinated 3 times to give better immunity: I hear that the fewer people who catch the virus, the smaller the opportunity for mutation of the virus. I presume that a third jab lowers the chance of contracting the virus, so the chance of mutation is reduced. A mutation against which current vaccines offered little protection would be a disaster, wouldn't it?
However... is this 3rd jab a good idea when we look at the bigger picture? Most people in the world have not been vaccinated at all. Therein lies the potential for mass transmission and mutation. I imagine it would be better for all if the countries with access to vaccine shipped stocks to the unvaccinated world rather than giving a third dose to people.
3rd shot locally protects the family.
2 jabs globally won't happen for a long time.
How long will 3rd jab locally delay meaningful global vaccination? Two weeks by my math at the estimated production rates. Maybe 60 days, tops.
The quantity of people willing to get triple jabbed isn't enough to meaningfully impact global supply until we're talking about triple jabbing everyone.
Should a society forgo protection of itself when there is no hope of vaccinating enough people to stop the next waves?
That is why my previous post highlighted how many we had vaccinated (just over 3.5 billion doses).
As an aviation enthusiast, I want that third jab to reopen DXB, LHR, ATL, DEN, ICN, LAX, and all the global hubs at full capacity. It is my opinion that 2 jabs are insufficient in protection.
We will do both. The policy decisions must be swayed by economics.
We're talking 150 million doses to 500 million.
If someone is where vaccines are insufficient, of course they want to have the doses. But this is like before we found out Delta and Lambda hurt kids. Before we argued the rest of the world deserved doses before children, now we find we are behind being ready to innoculate younger kids.
I interact with vulnerable people. I would like to protect them. Israel research, posted above, not 2-jabs is 64% effective. My government had better come up with a better solution.
Should other governments get vaccine, syringe, and associated production going? Yes.
I think you are asking the wrong question. This isn't a zero sum game; your question is a zero sum question. e.g., my prior references have India making over 200 million doses per month before NovaVax and Moderna production.
South Africa is now producing J&J:https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/su ... NewsSearch
We should be commiting to more production globally. I posted up thread how Thailand gets to use 40% of the vaccine it produces. I also before posted links on Japan and South Korea producing.
Sputnik V will be made in:https://www.usnews.com/news/business/ar ... ontext=amp
All the above is ramping up production.
Of course people are going to look after their own interests first. The obvious answer is we should vaccinate everyone. There is a benefit to 3rd jabs and the impact on the global vaccination effort will be minor. So now it is a question on when each country should 3rd or even 4th jab?
So the question is, is it politically viable to deny one's own citizens the protection of a 3rd jab when:
1. We cannot get a jab to everyone until mid 2022 at the earliest
2 3rd jabs won't be taken up by many, so little impact to the global timeline.
3. Either children matter or they don't. Either the already vaccinated do enough to protect their young, or the countries enabling the vaccines need to vaccinate children.
I'm sorry, but another 150 million doses makes no difference (my estimate on how many wil be willing to triple dose). For opening up countries to travel who did attenuated virus vaccines, the 3rd jab is a night and day benefit. For high trade cities (London, New York), I think this is the only way to reopen business with confidence.
We're debating 2 weeks to 60 days when younger, in general healthy people get vaccinated.
We should debate how to open six more vaccine factories. AZ, Sputnik V, Johnson & Johnson, and Moderna have proven very willing to partner. So much so, even with boosters, the world will have a massive surplus of vaccines end of 2022.