https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tine-times
Hong Kong government now require all vaccinated travellers from low and mid risk countriws to observe 14 days quarantine + 7 days self monitor, while also upgrading a number of major American and Euripean countries into the high risk category, requiring 21 days quarantine for vaccinated travellers.

lightsaber wrote:

75% of breakthrough cases in age 65 or older:
https://hickoryrecord.com/wake-forest-r ... 7fb50.html
Slightly modified version of the 95% unvaccinated:
The CDC, as well as local and state public-health officials, have said that at least 95% of current COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are occurring in the unvaccinated, those with just one of the two Moderna or Pfizer doses, or who are immunocompromised.
...
Meanwhile, he said a breakthrough case between vaccinated individuals tends to produce what he is calling “a COVID cold” because it typically involves an upper respiratory tract infection that doesn’t affect the body’s organs as COVID does, “doesn’t give you pneumonia or land you in the hospital.”
...
I can see the frustration where it feels like people are having to change behavior for a group of people choosing not to be vaccinated.


I personally know people who had Coronavirus induced heart attacks (I'm at that age though where men get their first heart attack, so probably just a few years early).
I know one person well who died of coronavirus.
I know hundreds of people with long haul symptoms from Covid19, the most common symptom being fatigue.

I do not know a single soul who had a significant negative reaction to a vaccine.

Lightsaber

Again, is the breakthrough due to age or due to longer time have passed after receiving vaccination, and what about data of breakthrough among medical workers?

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

75% of breakthrough cases in age 65 or older:
https://hickoryrecord.com/wake-forest-r ... 7fb50.html
Slightly modified version of the 95% unvaccinated:
The CDC, as well as local and state public-health officials, have said that at least 95% of current COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are occurring in the unvaccinated, those with just one of the two Moderna or Pfizer doses, or who are immunocompromised.
...
Meanwhile, he said a breakthrough case between vaccinated individuals tends to produce what he is calling “a COVID cold” because it typically involves an upper respiratory tract infection that doesn’t affect the body’s organs as COVID does, “doesn’t give you pneumonia or land you in the hospital.”
...
I can see the frustration where it feels like people are having to change behavior for a group of people choosing not to be vaccinated.


I personally know people who had Coronavirus induced heart attacks (I'm at that age though where men get their first heart attack, so probably just a few years early).
I know one person well who died of coronavirus.
I know hundreds of people with long haul symptoms from Covid19, the most common symptom being fatigue.

I do not know a single soul who had a significant negative reaction to a vaccine.

Lightsaber

Again, is the breakthrough due to age or due to longer time have passed after receiving vaccination, and what about data of breakthrough among medical workers?

That’s an important question a lot of people are waiting for the answer to.

lightsaber wrote:

First, I didn't know South Africa was already producing J&J. Kudos to them.
Errr... 32 million doses shipped to EU, not great optics...
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/ ... -africa-eu

Lightsaber

I call BS on that one as the EU only got 21.3 million doses of JJ in total

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/p ... bution-tab

and has pretty much zero demand for more.

best regards
Thomas

A friend from HS had COVID in December.
She was vaccinated in April.
Last week she got COVID again, but just felt fatigue.
She died in the hospital a few days later.

Yes, she had underlying health conditions and was overweight, but also under 50, had natural antibodies, and was fully vaccinated.

You just never know how this thing will play out.

EA CO AS wrote:

A friend from HS had COVID in December.
She was vaccinated in April.
Last week she got COVID again, but just felt fatigue.
She died in the hospital a few days later.

Yes, she had underlying health conditions and was overweight, but also under 50, had natural antibodies, and was fully vaccinated.

You just never know how this thing will play out.

Sorry to hear about your friend.

Overweight is one of the biggest risk factors. What were her other underlying conditions?

EA CO AS wrote:

A friend from HS had COVID in December.
She was vaccinated in April.
Last week she got COVID again, but just felt fatigue.
She died in the hospital a few days later.

Yes, she had underlying health conditions and was overweight, but also under 50, had natural antibodies, and was fully vaccinated.

You just never know how this thing will play out.

This is a very interesting input because she survived Covid without the vaccine and then didn't with the vaccine.

Do you have any idea which vaccine she had?
Do you think that the vaccine played a positive or negative role?

c933103 wrote:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-17/hong-kong-halts-use-of-antibody-test-to-cut-quarantine-times
Hong Kong government now require all vaccinated travellers from low and mid risk countriws to observe 14 days quarantine + 7 days self monitor, while also upgrading a number of major American and Euripean countries into the high risk category, requiring 21 days quarantine for vaccinated travellers.

No thank you. Our money shall go elsewhere. Hong Kong citizens should face the same procedures anywhere they go though.

Meanwhile New Zealand in lockdown again, after one confirmed case.

tommy1808 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

First, I didn't know South Africa was already producing J&J. Kudos to them.
Errr... 32 million doses shipped to EU, not great optics...
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/ ... -africa-eu

Lightsaber

I call BS on that one as the EU only got 21.3 million doses of JJ in total

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/p ... bution-tab

and has pretty much zero demand for more.

best regards
Thomas

Is the statements about the contract false or the BS is that nothing has yet been shipped or reallocated elsewhere?

Waterbomber2 wrote:

EA CO AS wrote:

A friend from HS had COVID in December.
She was vaccinated in April.
Last week she got COVID again, but just felt fatigue.
She died in the hospital a few days later.

Yes, she had underlying health conditions and was overweight, but also under 50, had natural antibodies, and was fully vaccinated.

You just never know how this thing will play out.

This is a very interesting input because she survived Covid without the vaccine and then didn't with the vaccine.

Do you have any idea which vaccine she had?
Do you think that the vaccine played a positive or negative role?

Delta has worse outcomes. There will be 2% the vaccine just doesn't help. Delta is the fastest variant yet.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/covid-d ... yan%20said.

We have an unvaccinated couple that look healthy and ... not old in the photos, parents dead from Delta:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/unvac ... NewsSearch

The shame is this senseless, unneeded wave is:
“COVID-19 is real and it’s not just affecting COVID patients. All of us other patients, with other needs, can’t get what they need,” said Warshel.
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/its ... s/2530725/

Vaccines will never be perfect. The current ones are surprisingly good. Then again, look how many failed: Merck, Sanofi, and Curevac come to the top of my head.

Alabama seems to have the lowest concentration of anywhere I've seen (in the world) for unvaccinated in the hospital:
Williamson said about 88% of Alabama's COVID patients are unvaccinated.
https://www.tuscaloosanews.com/story/ne ... 157313002/

I've posted numerous links on 95% patients being unvaccinated in this thread. This is a crisis of the unvaccinated.
France was smart prohibiting the unvaccinated from Mandatory for entry in all cafes, restaurants, and bars (even for outdoor seating), theaters, and libraries, and even public transit such as the Paris metro
I'm a don't tread on my type, but dang has the French passport worked. The majority of those I know want us to emulate the French model, but far stricter.
A reasonable accomodation to get the next age group vaccinated.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/h ... NewsSearch

This hospital surge is denying too many medical care and that is... an significant emotional event.
Its ok if people don't believe the medical establishment as long as when then get home they do their home remedies and stay out of the hospitals. It is past time to add vaccination status into the triage points. I propose ten points for unvacs, all unvacs.

Lightsaber

PS (not a late edit):
I've yet to see a link that shows anywhere in the world where the vast majority of patients are unvaccinated. I'm talking links with hard percentages (e.g., most are about 95% that I posted upthread unvac).

Just to highlight
3rd jab in Israel reducing chance of hospitalization by 50%
The Israeli government’s decision to start boosting those 50 and older was driven by preliminary Ministry of Health data indicating people over age 60 who have received a third dose were half as likely as their twice-vaccinated peers to be hospitalized in recent days, Mevorach says.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08 ... feat-delta

Basic vaccine theory would indicate a slowing spread too. However, 1 million of 9.2 million shouldn't have much of an impact on a disease with an estimated Ro ~7. With so many needing vaccination, the only way our is a much higher fraction. The sheer number of vaccinated Israelis means some breakthrough infections were inevitable, and the unvaccinated are still far more likely to end up in the hospital or die.

63% vaccinated has no chance to stop Ro ~7.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+dose%29

Aparently 1.1 million of those authorized to be vaccinated are not:
https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/doct ... -israelis/

That is 11.9 % of the population has chosen not to vaccinate and put their neighbors at more risk. Read the above link, it talks of doctors getting angry. Every single doctor I know working coronavirus is getting really angry at the unvaccinated due to the workload they are adding.

Lightsaber
Israel population 9.2 million: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogra ... s%20law%20

The facebook link has a chart showing that since we started vaccinations in March 2021, no fully vaccinated persons have died.
We now have two vaccines in country - AZ and Pfizer with JJ expected at end of August, we now have sufficient doses on hand to kill that hesitancy argument.
https://www.facebook.com/opmbs/
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coro ... s/bahamas/

Locally, the numbers will be questioned by the anti-vaxxers, however, as a small country, everyone knows someone or can easily get independent information.

For South Carolina, in June, 90% of deaths and 86% of hospitalizations were those not fully vaccinated:
https://www.wltx.com/mobile/article/new ... d27e7547dc

Considering we preferentially vaccinated the vulnerable, this shows good vaccine effectiveness.

I am personally appalled we have no 3rd jab effort amoung medical staff to arrest the spread. Come on CDC!

Lightsaber

Aaron747 wrote:

EA CO AS wrote:

A friend from HS had COVID in December.
She was vaccinated in April.
Last week she got COVID again, but just felt fatigue.
She died in the hospital a few days later.

Yes, she had underlying health conditions and was overweight, but also under 50, had natural antibodies, and was fully vaccinated.

You just never know how this thing will play out.

Sorry to hear about your friend.

Overweight is one of the biggest risk factors. What were her other underlying conditions?

Thanks, it was pretty shocking. Her last post on social media specifically was about how glad she was that she got vaccinated and was not going to need to be hospitalized. So sad.

Not sure which vaccine she got but the underlying conditions, to my knowledge, were being pre-diabetic and also a lifelong smoker.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

EA CO AS wrote:

A friend from HS had COVID in December.
She was vaccinated in April.
Last week she got COVID again, but just felt fatigue.
She died in the hospital a few days later.

Yes, she had underlying health conditions and was overweight, but also under 50, had natural antibodies, and was fully vaccinated.

You just never know how this thing will play out.

This is a very interesting input because she survived Covid without the vaccine and then didn't with the vaccine.

Do you have any idea which vaccine she had?
Do you think that the vaccine played a positive or negative role?

I don’t know which vaccine she had, and really couldn’t state whether or not it had a positive or negative role. One thing that likely didn’t help is her job; she’d been driving for Uber.

Good news,
Once again it appears the Covid Vaccine works. Even if you manage to catch the virus

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/politics ... index.html

Abbott is in good health and not currently experiencing any symptoms. Texas first lady Cecilia Abbott has tested negative and everyone with whom Abbott has been in close contact has been notified, the statement said.

I wonder if this will help change Abbott's mind about the Mask mandates?

casinterest wrote:

Good news,
Once again it appears the Covid Vaccine works. Even if you manage to catch the virus

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/politics ... index.html

Abbott is in good health and not currently experiencing any symptoms. Texas first lady Cecilia Abbott has tested negative and everyone with whom Abbott has been in close contact has been notified, the statement said.

I wonder if this will help change Abbott's mind about the Mask mandates?

And he got access to regeneron which many people do not get access too. I wonder if he will make this treatment easier to access in Texas.

Pi7472000 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

Good news,
Once again it appears the Covid Vaccine works. Even if you manage to catch the virus

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/politics ... index.html

Abbott is in good health and not currently experiencing any symptoms. Texas first lady Cecilia Abbott has tested negative and everyone with whom Abbott has been in close contact has been notified, the statement said.

I wonder if this will help change Abbott's mind about the Mask mandates?

And he got access to regeneron which many people do not get access too. I wonder if he will make this treatment easier to access in Texas.

Please.

He had a brief moment of clarity one or two waves ago and he was brutally punished from the right for doing the right thing and trying to reduce transmission.

par13del wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

First, I didn't know South Africa was already producing J&J. Kudos to them.
Errr... 32 million doses shipped to EU, not great optics...
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/ ... -africa-eu

Lightsaber

I call BS on that one as the EU only got 21.3 million doses of JJ in total

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/p ... bution-tab

and has pretty much zero demand for more.

best regards
Thomas

Is the statements about the contract false or the BS is that nothing has yet been shipped or reallocated elsewhere?

The BS is the number of doses, as the EU didn´t get anywhere that many, and the NYT names just two countries, Germany and Spain, that got JJ from SA. Just one is quantified, Spain with 800k, but for Germany it stated April, when Germany got a total of 256.800 Doses JJ. So.. where did the other 31 Million doses go?

best regards
Thomas

At least 3 Belgian cyclists went to the hospital due to heart problems within a week following vaccination.
"It's best not to exercise heavily in the first week after the second shot."

https://www.hln.be/binnenland/zeker-dri ... ~a8ce2b9c/


Most schools in Belgium to reopen WITHOUT mask mandates, probably relying on the vaccines to cushion the blow.


https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium-e ... -brussels/


Also, tens of thousands attended festivals last weekend thanks to lifting of restrictions, while Covid numbers were already on the rise.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belg ... s-weekend/

The Belgian government seems to be basing its policies on the assumption that the vaccines work.
Disaster brewing due to overreliance on the vaccines?
Talk about stirring the petri dish, it's almost like they are purposely trying to make things worse.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

The Belgian government seems to be basing its policies on the assumption that the vaccines work.

It's not an assumption, it's a fact.
Data from the hospitals speak loudly, and clearly. Vaccines greatly decrease the chance of hospitalization and almost eliminate the chance of dying in all but the most severe cases.
In fact, the only reason Covid is still overburdening hospitals and creating a public health crisis (though much less so than previous waves) is because not enough people are vaccinated.

Of course, you still refuse to understand or even acknowledge the data, and I believe you are stuck in the delusion that we should all hide in a hole while we wait for Covid to somehow magically disappear...
Good luck with that.

Speaking of holes, weren't you supposed to crawl back into yours until the cataclysmic catastrophe you've prophesized for this winter instead of coming back here to keep sh#tposting?

Waterbomber2 wrote:

At least 3 Belgian cyclists went to the hospital due to heart problems within a week following vaccination.
"It's best not to exercise heavily in the first week after the second shot."

https://www.hln.be/binnenland/zeker-dri ... ~a8ce2b9c/

Eh... my problem was more that doing an upper-body workout the day after I got my shot was a bad idea because my arm, which hurt a little bit, REALLY frickin' hurt after exercising the arm I got the shot in. So, took the day off from exercising after the 2nd shot.

Hospital staff very demoralized.
“Ninety-nine percent of the patients being admitted are unvaccinated,” she said. “They’re sicker when they get here. They require more acute care while they’re here. And unfortunately, many of them are not surviving.”
...
“It’s extremely frustrating, the ignorance of people not getting the vaccine because they don’t believe in it, or they don’t think it’ll help them,” Ingle said. “You have the chance to get them. They’re free. And people still refuse.”
..
In Louisiana, the consequences of remaining unvaccinated are becoming obvious: The unvaccinated account for roughly 9 in 10 current hospitalizations. Since the state’s immunization campaign began, unvaccinated Louisianans account for a staggering 98.4% of all Covid-19 deaths.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/08/18/hea ... accinated/

Holy cow. 98.4% of deaths are unvaccinated and we all recall how the elderly and vulnerable (including obese) were moved to the front of the vaccine line because... they are just more likely to die.

I'm just flabbergasted that the unvaccinated are not talking to their doctors about a vaccine.

I personally have friends exhausted, past burnout, working to help with vaccine production (wow is the pay good...) as either plant design engineers or production engineers (usually a mix of both as the later are so in demand). Yet, I am frustrated, like so many, on the need for more production. It could be J&J, AZ, Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax (where I have my doubts...), or Valneva (assuming it passes trials) to get out to the world.

Unfortunately, with Delta, the vaccines have reverted back to protecting mostly oneself instead of a great protection to the community; not zero though, we have links in thread showing effectiveness:
J&J 1 dose 30%, 2 dose 60%
Pfizer effectiveness 42%
Moderna: 76% effectiveness

The above are effectiveness against sniffles, in other words spreading the disease. I couldn't find AZ effectiveness, other than 92% vs. hospitalizations:
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centr ... riant.html

This link has claims for AZ and Pfizer that, in my opinion, don't quite line up with what is going on in Israel (too effective):
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... ta-variant

I'm pro-vaccine, but I'm also pro-doing real science (not media "Science" that has an agenda, in my opinion.) Cold hard facts to make cold hard decisions.

I agree with the tone on foot dragging on child's vaccines. Ok, rare conditions, but worse than the virus? No! Get out younger child vaccines to slow the spread.
https://news.yahoo.com/fdas-inexcusable ... 12823.html

I am of the opinion it is pretty much inevitable that everyone gets the virus now (unless a super booster happens). However, if the vaccine makes it so you don't even suspect, it only matters who you give it to.

LIghtsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Its ok if people don't believe the medical establishment as long as when then get home they do their home remedies and stay out of the hospitals. It is past time to add vaccination status into the triage points. I propose ten points for unvacs, all unvacs..

Hot much is a triage point worth? How much more likely is a vaccinated person to survive once hospitalized assuming all else remains the same?

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Its ok if people don't believe the medical establishment as long as when then get home they do their home remedies and stay out of the hospitals. It is past time to add vaccination status into the triage points. I propose ten points for unvacs, all unvacs..

Hot much is a triage point worth? How much more likely is a vaccinated person to survive once hospitalized assuming all else remains the same?

best regards
Thomas

Most people think of triage as priority for entry:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/medical- ... ks-2615132

It is also used to ration care. One of my uncles was kicked out of the hospital to die, because he had too many triage points.

Part of triage is the stroke units of the hospitals are keeping one quad in the ICU "clean" (no coronavirus patients) as is the cardiac ICU. The one hospital I know of in enough detail, the injury ICU had to forfeit their quad, but has clean patients in the cardiac and stroke (doctors and nurses are refusing to work coronavirus as they must minimize risk to patients).

Generally points are assigned by risk, when points are to high, you are the first kicked out.
Diabetes 1 to 5 points
Obesity 1 point
Morbid obesity add another 3 points
Waist above 94cm (37 in) another point
Every BMI more, the hospital decides points
HIV 1 to 9 points
Cancer 1 to 7 points
Kidney diseases 1 to 7 points
Prior heart attacks 1 to 7 points
Age 60 1 point
Age 65 1 point
Age 80 1 point
Age 85 1 point and 1 point for every additional year of age
Pregnancy, zero points (subtract all points) for the baby.

In general, when hospitals get too busy, it takes 15 points when they clear the bed.

e.g., in Italy early on in this pandemic, no one over age 60 received a respirator:
http://www.hideoutnow.com/2020/03/we-ca ... o.html?m=1

I do not think we'll get that bad again, thanks to vaccines. But when it comes time to rationing care, it is best to apply to those you can save. The unvaccinated need a handicap, it is only fair. Not an absolute, but a fair handicap. Ten points in my opinion for the allocation of resources.

Normally, triage is priority of entry. Now, with full hospitals, there is a well established system to be fair on resources. We just need to obviously add vaccination status.

Lightsaber

92% of San Diego cases unvaccinated. Most of vaccinated not showing symptoms (I guess tested for a trip or exposure):
https://timesofsandiego.com/health/2021 ... accinated/

If my child could be vaccinated, I wouldn't care about the later as why they would be contagious, if they need a test to know they are sick... #firstworldproblems I posted upthread how the risk for age 5 to 17, per CDC, is same as age 18-49. It is time to vaccinate the younger kids!

I lack empathy for the willingly unvaccinated now. They are filling the hospitals and doing this to themselves.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

92% of San Diego cases unvaccinated. Most of vaccinated not showing symptoms (I guess tested for a trip or exposure):
https://timesofsandiego.com/health/2021 ... accinated/

If my child could be vaccinated, I wouldn't care about the later as why they would be contagious, if they need a test to know they are sick... #firstworldproblems I posted upthread how the risk for age 5 to 17, per CDC, is same as age 18-49. It is time to vaccinate the younger kids!

I lack empathy for the willingly unvaccinated now. They are filling the hospitals and doing this to themselves.

Lightsaber

Most of the world still cannot get vaccinated.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... -new-light

You may need to use the 'tricks of the trade' to get access to the article.

Some early evidence from the 'wet meat' market. It was suppressed by the Chinese government, probably over embarrassment that those markets were suppose to be non-existent. The data includes the periods of interest.

"U.S. to offer Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 booster shots to all Americans beginning September 20"

The Biden administration is preparing to administer a third COVID-19 shot from vaccine developers Pfizer (PFE +1.7%)/BioNTech (BNTX -2.0%) and Moderna (MRNA -1.7%) beginning September 20.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3731902-u ... ptember-20

Sounds like a plan.
We are also still waiting for official recognition of vaccines.

lightsaber wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Its ok if people don't believe the medical establishment as long as when then get home they do their home remedies and stay out of the hospitals. It is past time to add vaccination status into the triage points. I propose ten points for unvacs, all unvacs..

Hot much is a triage point worth? How much more likely is a vaccinated person to survive once hospitalized assuming all else remains the same?

best regards
Thomas

Most people think of triage as priority for entry:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/medical- ... ks-2615132

It is also used to ration care. One of my uncles was kicked out of the hospital to die, because he had too many triage points.

Part of triage is the stroke units of the hospitals are keeping one quad in the ICU "clean" (no coronavirus patients) as is the cardiac ICU. The one hospital I know of in enough detail, the injury ICU had to forfeit their quad, but has clean patients in the cardiac and stroke (doctors and nurses are refusing to work coronavirus as they must minimize risk to patients).

Generally points are assigned by risk, when points are to high, you are the first kicked out.
Diabetes 1 to 5 points
Obesity 1 point
Morbid obesity add another 3 points
Waist above 94cm (37 in) another point
Every BMI more, the hospital decides points
HIV 1 to 9 points
Cancer 1 to 7 points
Kidney diseases 1 to 7 points
Prior heart attacks 1 to 7 points
Age 60 1 point
Age 65 1 point
Age 80 1 point
Age 85 1 point and 1 point for every additional year of age
Pregnancy, zero points (subtract all points) for the baby.

In general, when hospitals get too busy, it takes 15 points when they clear the bed.

e.g., in Italy early on in this pandemic, no one over age 60 received a respirator:
http://www.hideoutnow.com/2020/03/we-ca ... o.html?m=1

I do not think we'll get that bad again, thanks to vaccines. But when it comes time to rationing care, it is best to apply to those you can save. The unvaccinated need a handicap, it is only fair. Not an absolute, but a fair handicap. Ten points in my opinion for the allocation of resources.

Normally, triage is priority of entry. Now, with full hospitals, there is a well established system to be fair on resources. We just need to obviously add vaccination status.

Lightsaber

That is interesting, but not really what I was curious about. For points to be fair they need to somehow correlate with the chance of survival in relation to the resources occupied and consumed to that point.
So the relevant question is: how much more likely is a vaccinated person going to survive compared to someone unvaccinated once they are admitted to a hospital.

Best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

tommy1808 wrote:

Hot much is a triage point worth? How much more likely is a vaccinated person to survive once hospitalized assuming all else remains the same?

best regards
Thomas

Most people think of triage as priority for entry:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/medical- ... ks-2615132

It is also used to ration care. One of my uncles was kicked out of the hospital to die, because he had too many triage points.

Part of triage is the stroke units of the hospitals are keeping one quad in the ICU "clean" (no coronavirus patients) as is the cardiac ICU. The one hospital I know of in enough detail, the injury ICU had to forfeit their quad, but has clean patients in the cardiac and stroke (doctors and nurses are refusing to work coronavirus as they must minimize risk to patients).

Generally points are assigned by risk, when points are to high, you are the first kicked out.
Diabetes 1 to 5 points
Obesity 1 point
Morbid obesity add another 3 points
Waist above 94cm (37 in) another point
Every BMI more, the hospital decides points
HIV 1 to 9 points
Cancer 1 to 7 points
Kidney diseases 1 to 7 points
Prior heart attacks 1 to 7 points
Age 60 1 point
Age 65 1 point
Age 80 1 point
Age 85 1 point and 1 point for every additional year of age
Pregnancy, zero points (subtract all points) for the baby.

In general, when hospitals get too busy, it takes 15 points when they clear the bed.

e.g., in Italy early on in this pandemic, no one over age 60 received a respirator:
http://www.hideoutnow.com/2020/03/we-ca ... o.html?m=1

I do not think we'll get that bad again, thanks to vaccines. But when it comes time to rationing care, it is best to apply to those you can save. The unvaccinated need a handicap, it is only fair. Not an absolute, but a fair handicap. Ten points in my opinion for the allocation of resources.

Normally, triage is priority of entry. Now, with full hospitals, there is a well established system to be fair on resources. We just need to obviously add vaccination status.

Lightsaber

That is interesting, but not really what I was curious about. For points to be fair they need to somehow correlate with the chance of survival in relation to the resources occupied and consumed to that point.
So the relevant question is: how much more likely is a vaccinated person going to survive compared to someone unvaccinated once they are admitted to a hospital.

Best regards
Thomas

Well... 99% of the dying are unvaccinated...
https://www.cnet.com/health/99-of-covid ... perts-say/

The vaccinated will earn other points that are already correlated to their mortality.

I posted upthread:

lightsaber wrote:

mRNA death from COVID-19 (no cases found).
https://news.yahoo.com/pfizers-vaccine- ... 45416.html

Protection from sniffles or flu symptoms: Moderna 76%, Pfizer 42%
Protection from the hospital: Moderna 91.6%, Pfizer 85%
Protection from ICU: 93.3%, 87%
Protection from death: 100% (Ok, enough data that this might be 99.99%, but incredible!)

This might bias more in favor of the mRNA vaccinated.
Time for boosters.
Lightsaber

Ron Desantis is now openly endorsing antibody treatments that one of his top donors is heavily invested in.

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/des ... s/2531996/

Regeneron is an effective treatment if given within 10 days, but this makes me ask the following question?

Why is a pound of cure, worth more than an ounce of prevention? Why isn't Desantis running around promoting the vaccine?

This reeks of absolute corruption and swampiness.

Someone should investigate his finances, and those of his donors.

casinterest wrote:

Ron Desantis is now openly endorsing antibody treatments that one of his top donors is heavily invested in.

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/des ... s/2531996/

Regeneron is an effective treatment if given within 10 days, but this makes me ask the following question?

Why is a pound of cure, worth more than an ounce of prevention? Why isn't Desantis running around promoting the vaccine?

This reeks of absolute corruption and swampiness.

Someone should investigate his finances, and those of his donors.

Is there a single GOP leader working to expand vaccine adoption and/or reduce person to person transmission?

I don't think there's a single serious one. Boebert's "Fauci ouchie" was the erudite scientific wing of the party.

MaverickM11 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

Ron Desantis is now openly endorsing antibody treatments that one of his top donors is heavily invested in.

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/des ... s/2531996/

Regeneron is an effective treatment if given within 10 days, but this makes me ask the following question?

Why is a pound of cure, worth more than an ounce of prevention? Why isn't Desantis running around promoting the vaccine?

This reeks of absolute corruption and swampiness.

Someone should investigate his finances, and those of his donors.

Is there a single GOP leader working to expand vaccine adoption and/or reduce person to person transmission?

I don't think there's a single serious one. Boebert's "Fauci ouchie" was the erudite scientific wing of the party.

There are,
but they are all a step away from Censure.

https://www.wnewsj.com/news/175421/ohio ... olchildren

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine strongly urged Tuesday that schoolchildren continue wearing masks in school at least for the beginning of the academic year to avert more drastic coronavirus measures, such as quarantines or a return to online learning.

DeWine said the state doesn’t have experience with children in classes without masks, and said kids can’t afford another year without in-person schooling.

“The best way to make sure a child can stay in school and not have his or her classes interrupted is for that child to be vaccinated,” DeWine said during a news conference. “If that child cannot be vaccinated, the best way to ensure a good school year for that child, is for that child to wear a mask while in class.”

MaverickM11 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

Ron Desantis is now openly endorsing antibody treatments that one of his top donors is heavily invested in.

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/des ... s/2531996/

Regeneron is an effective treatment if given within 10 days, but this makes me ask the following question?

Why is a pound of cure, worth more than an ounce of prevention? Why isn't Desantis running around promoting the vaccine?

This reeks of absolute corruption and swampiness.

Someone should investigate his finances, and those of his donors.

Is there a single GOP leader working to expand vaccine adoption and/or reduce person to person transmission?

I don't think there's a single serious one. Boebert's "Fauci ouchie" was the erudite scientific wing of the party.

Jim Justice, the governor of West Virginia has been encouraging them.

https://wchstv.com/amp/news/local/gov-j ... 08-17-2021

lightsaber wrote:

Unfortunately, with Delta, the vaccines have reverted back to protecting mostly oneself instead of a great protection to the community; not zero though, we have links in thread showing effectiveness:
J&J 1 dose 30%, 2 dose 60%
Pfizer effectiveness 42%
Moderna: 76% effectiveness

The above are effectiveness against sniffles, in other words spreading the disease. I couldn't find AZ effectiveness, other than 92% vs. hospitalizations:
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centr ... riant.html

Here you go: https://www.ejinme.com/article/S0953-6205(21)00271-5/fulltext

VE for two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 given at a median interval of 30 days (IQR: 28-36) was 28% (10-41%) for symptomatic infections, 67% (44-81%) for moderate to severe disease, 76% (37-89%) for supplemental-oxygen-therapy and nearly 97% (43-99.8%) for deaths.

This is for 50% delta.

lightsaber wrote:

I am of the opinion it is pretty much inevitable that everyone gets the virus now (unless a super booster happens).

I agree with this, in fact, it seems to be government policy in most of the western world since 02/2020. The consequence is that everyone will get the virus multiple times during his/her lifetime (although not necessarly covid).
Given this, what is the chance, in our lifetime (and that of our children, who are younger) that we are eventually going to get a severe infection, given the effectiveniss of the current vaccines? Or ending up with long covid? And how likely is an immune evading variant, starting the whole pandemic over again?
In my opinion, a more cautious (pessimistic) approach is much more appropriate given the current (lack of) data.

It turns out we (as a society) have been too optimistic about children being less infectious: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/heal ... ssion.html

Babies and toddlers are less likely to bring the coronavirus into their homes than teenagers are, but once they are infected, they are more likely to spread the virus to others in their households

And:

During the early months of the pandemic, some scientists suggested that young children, in particular, rarely got infected with or transmitted the virus. But those observations may have been distorted by the fact that most children had few social encounters during that time.

The bolded part really understates reality: a lot of policy had been and still is based on children being less infectious, despite the lack of data supporting this.

This again shows we really need a vaccine for children, even the youngest.

Thanks for the data. I think assuming children wouldn't spread this is counter to every parent's experience!

More on J&J

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... NewsSearch

J&J
71% preventing hospitalizations
96% in preventing death...

errr, needs a booster in my opinion.

Lightsaber

3rd dose of Pfizer, in over age 60, 86% effective. Considering that is about double prior reports... a nice boost with the 3rd jab.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Please recall:
The data posted online suggest that antibody levels against the delta variant in people ages 18 to 55 who receive a third dose of vaccine are greater than fivefold than following a second dose.
Among people ages 65 to 85, the Pfizer data suggest that antibody levels against the delta variant after receiving a third dose of vaccine are greater than 11-fold than following a second dose.

https://abc7news.com/pfizer-booster-sho ... /10914062/

Now obviously we can assume younger people have a better response to a 2-dose regimen. I spreculate the younger will do better than 86% effectiveness vs. Delta.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

3rd dose of Pfizer, in over age 60, 86% effective. Considering that is about double prior reports... a nice boost with the 3rd jab.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Please recall:
The data posted online suggest that antibody levels against the delta variant in people ages 18 to 55 who receive a third dose of vaccine are greater than fivefold than following a second dose.
Among people ages 65 to 85, the Pfizer data suggest that antibody levels against the delta variant after receiving a third dose of vaccine are greater than 11-fold than following a second dose.

https://abc7news.com/pfizer-booster-sho ... /10914062/

Now obviously we can assume younger people have a better response to a 2-dose regimen. I spreculate the younger will do better than 86% effectiveness vs. Delta.

Lightsaber

I would like to see a study of using the J&J as a booster for mRNA vaccines. I saw an article about mixing vaccines. It said people who got a Pfizer booster after getting 2 doses of AstraZeneca had better immunity than those who got a third dose of Pfizer.

lightsaber wrote:

Thanks for the data. I think assuming children wouldn't spread this is counter to every parent's experience!

More on J&J

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... NewsSearch

J&J
71% preventing hospitalizations
96% in preventing death...

errr, needs a booster in my opinion.

Lightsaber

i think it does look better than it seems:

“There is no need for a booster shot yet as the vaccine has shown good durability but we will continue to evaluate this as we follow up with the healthcare workers,” she said.

The study found that there were some breakthrough infections following vaccination, however, these were mostly mild cases.

“Around 96% of the breakthrough infections were mild, 3% moderate, less than 0.05% severe and less than 0.05% in deaths,” said Gray.

https://www.iol.co.za/news/covid19/siso ... 0cd08fb5f5

Even with minute protection against infection itself, that would but the risk of Covid.19 on the level of a 20-year old dying within the next 12 month.

https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying

That is not all too shabby.

best regards
Thomas

Top quality study on the efficacy of Pfizer and AZ against Delta.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58257863

Why's it so good? It's based on the ONS surveillance tests. These are the gold standard for UK case data, as it takes a six figure sample across all UK regions and demographics and test them regularly. So you lose all the confounders that voluntary testing brings. So, real world, high volume, high quality data. Which means the world's media will ignore it in favour of some farty serology study

Takeaways? "The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had 93% effectiveness against symptomatic infection two weeks after the second dose, compared with Oxford-AstraZeneca's 71%.".

BUT, AZ declines linearly while Pfizer curves upwards, and the report expects the crossover, where AZ becomes better, to be 4-5 months after being fully vaccinated. Graph in this tweet.
https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/sta ... 96355?s=19
Raises questions about Pfizer as an annual booster though.

All that pretty expected given data out of Israel. One surprise is that longer intervals between doses don't help. Having said that, they did the split at 9 weeks, and there hasn't been an official AZ gap less than 8, nor for Pfizer since early January. So they're not really comparing against 3-4 week intervals.

Need to do some reading to see how they account for the differing populations who received both vaccines, but interesting.

Also, to state the obvious, this is looking at symptomatic infection. Efficacy against hospitalisations and death will be expected to hold up thanks to those wonderful T Cells and memory B cells.

BaconButty wrote:

Top quality study on the efficacy of Pfizer and AZ against Delta.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58257863

Why's it so good? It's based on the ONS surveillance tests. These are the gold standard for UK case data, as it takes a six figure sample across all UK regions and demographics and test them regularly. So you lose all the confounders that voluntary testing brings. So, real world, high volume, high quality data. Which means the world's media will ignore it in favour of some farty serology study

Takeaways? "The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had 93% effectiveness against symptomatic infection two weeks after the second dose, compared with Oxford-AstraZeneca's 71%.".

BUT, AZ declines linearly while Pfizer curves upwards, and the report expects the crossover, where AZ becomes better, to be 4-5 months after being fully vaccinated. Graph in this tweet.
https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/sta ... 96355?s=19
Raises questions about Pfizer as an annual booster though.

All that pretty expected given data out of Israel. One surprise is that longer intervals between doses don't help. Having said that, they did the split at 9 weeks, and there hasn't been an official AZ gap less than 8, nor for Pfizer since early January. So they're not really comparing against 3-4 week intervals.

Need to do some reading to see how they account for the differing populations who received both vaccines, but interesting.

Also, to state the obvious, this is looking at symptomatic infection. Efficacy against hospitalisations and death will be expected to hold up thanks to those wonderful T Cells and memory B cells.

Prior study showed a very long delay boosted immunity (45 weeks), but also 3rd jab very effective of AZ.
https://inews.co.uk/news/health/covid-1 ... on-1074750

I think the 3rd jab is inevitable. It is just how long does one need to wait after the 2nd jab? That I do not know. What is wise? 8 months seems dangerously long (e.g., be vulnerable before boosting your immunity...)

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

I think the 3rd jab is inevitable. It is just how long does one need to wait after the 2nd jab? That I do not know. What is wise? 8 months seems dangerously long (e.g., be vulnerable before boosting your immunity...)

Lightsaber

I agree. Looking at the study I referred to, (the graph below is sourced from that) AZ looks like it will be down to 25% after a year, which isn't great. But on that non-linear trajectory Pfizer will be down to zero in 8 months!



It's funny, but when the first vaccines were being approved, people obsessed over efficacy vs symptomatic disease, and we were saying that it wasn't the most important characteristic of a vaccine. But now people seem to be ignoring it completely - at least the JVCI in the UK. Sure, hospitalizations and death matter more, but suppressing the cases still has real value, to the health systems and for those who can't have vaccines, or for whom they are ineffective.

FWIW the JVCI, who set our vaccine strategy, having been very creative in the first half of this year, have gone ultra conservative. They are resisting booster shots (setting up a conflict with the politicians) and are also against child vaccinations. Supply constraints are categorically not the reason.

Pfizer is a concern though. We've got 60m more coming, and I wonder if it's a great candidate for boosters, at least annual ones. It looks like a 6 monthly jab to me, and there's the problem that the side effects seem to grow in severity with each dose (at least the myocarditis seems to be more common with the second). Edit: I should say, I don't see AZ as a good booster, for the reasons that are well rehearsed. Tolerance for the platelet issue will be less for boosters. So maybe we're looking at the next generation? Novavax has half the rate of side effects than the mRna vaccines apparently. Valneva as a whole inactivated vaccine is expected to be mild in that regard too.

The other thing that concerns me is where are the adapted vaccines? My wife is a research chemist, currently in the less than glamorous world of personal care. She spent 2020 on hand sanitizer, unsurprisingly. We've been working at home and I've picked up bits and bobs of lingo from her phone calls. "Viscosity", "Stability", "Salt Curves" etc. Anyway, something that comes up a lot in conference calls is "Chassis". So when they are developing a shampoo, say, for a region (even global brands are tailored) you start with a pre-designed chassis, and add "emotives" (scent, colouring etc) to it. This saves time to market, because the chassis is already tested and its properties understood. Anyway, the point of this ramble is that that's how I expected updated vaccines to be. You have the adjuvants, lipids, stabilizers, preservatives, whatever. I naively imagined that they could relatively quickly amend the rna sequence for the antigen, do some serology tests and certify it by immunobridging. But that clearly isn't the case. I mean, AZ was developed and approved in a year. AZD2816, the version targeting Beta (though it contains mutations present in Alpha and Delta, and is substantially more effective against them) was started in March iirc. It will apparently not be available until after our booster program i.e. in December. This will also apply to Pfizer and Moderna. That's disappointing because it would make a big difference.

BaconButty wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I think the 3rd jab is inevitable. It is just how long does one need to wait after the 2nd jab? That I do not know. What is wise? 8 months seems dangerously long (e.g., be vulnerable before boosting your immunity...)

Lightsaber

I agree. Looking at the study I referred to, (the graph below is sourced from that) AZ looks like it will be down to 25% after a year, which isn't great. But on that non-linear trajectory Pfizer will be down to zero in 8 months!



It's funny, but when the first vaccines were being approved, people obsessed over efficacy vs symptomatic disease, and we were saying that it wasn't the most important characteristic of a vaccine. But now people seem to be ignoring it completely - at least the JVCI in the UK. Sure, hospitalizations and death matter more, but suppressing the cases still has real value, to the health systems and for those who can't have vaccines, or for whom they are ineffective.

FWIW the JVCI, who set our vaccine strategy, having been very creative in the first half of this year, have gone ultra conservative. They are resisting booster shots (setting up a conflict with the politicians) and are also against child vaccinations. Supply constraints are categorically not the reason.

Pfizer is a concern though. We've got 60m more coming, and I wonder if it's a great candidate for boosters, at least annual ones. It looks like a 6 monthly jab to me, and there's the problem that the side effects seem to grow in severity with each dose (at least the myocarditis seems to be more common with the second). Edit: I should say, I don't see AZ as a good booster, for the reasons that are well rehearsed. Tolerance for the platelet issue will be less for boosters. So maybe we're looking at the next generation? Novavax has half the rate of side effects than the mRna vaccines apparently. Valneva as a whole inactivated vaccine is expected to be mild in that regard too.

The other thing that concerns me is where are the adapted vaccines? My wife is a research chemist, currently in the less than glamorous world of personal care. She spent 2020 on hand sanitizer, unsurprisingly. We've been working at home and I've picked up bits and bobs of lingo from her phone calls. "Viscosity", "Stability", "Salt Curves" etc. Anyway, something that comes up a lot in conference calls is "Chassis". So when they are developing a shampoo, say, for a region (even global brands are tailored) you start with a pre-designed chassis, and add "emotives" (scent, colouring etc) to it. This saves time to market, because the chassis is already tested and its properties understood. Anyway, the point of this ramble is that that's how I expected updated vaccines to be. You have the adjuvants, lipids, stabilizers, preservatives, whatever. I naively imagined that they could relatively quickly amend the rna sequence for the antigen, do some serology tests and certify it by immunobridging. But that clearly isn't the case. I mean, AZ was developed and approved in a year. AZD2816, the version targeting Beta (though it contains mutations present in Alpha and Delta, and is substantially more effective against them) was started in March iirc. It will apparently not be available until after our booster program i.e. in December. This will also apply to Pfizer and Moderna. That's disappointing because it would make a big difference.

I've always heard the #1 value of a vaccine was slowing the spread.

I had Pfizer and I am going to try to get my booster either Moderna or perhaps by then AZ or Novavax will be available. Since I already have Pfizer in my blood at some declining level of immunity, I'd happy boost with AZ
I too wonder where the variant boosters are. I've heard of AZ, Moderna, and Pfizer developing them, but nothing more than vague on availability.

We do need to take a breath on how amazing these vaccines have been. AZ, Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J exceeded all expectations. So I don't want to bash the wonderful teams who brought these to market. What we are seeing is different characteristics. You can go upthread and find me a fan of the triple dose AZ concept. I am of the opinion the dosage couln't be increased much, but that a 3rd jab is required for the best immunity.

We wouldn't be so concerned if there weren't so many voluntarily unvaccinated.
The deaths in Israel are particularly tragic:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... med+deaths

I wish there was more data on who was dying (unvaccinated, vaccinated over say age 90). I am happy they are boosting.

The question is, will three jabs "stick" of Pfizer or will it just reset the trend? I'd like to see a chart on Moderna. While it seems to be lasting longer, is the trend similar to Pfizer with a longer time frame? The AZ linear drop is less concerning. Get in a 3rd jab and then tell everyone "come back in 18 months."

Sigh... the data just makes it obvious everyone will catch Covid19 a bunch. We're just not going to shake it. But without a defense, we already know the vast majority hospitalized are unvaccinated:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch
Onslow Memorial Hospital officials said there are 39 people hospitalized for treatment of COVID-10. Of those, five have been vaccinated and 34 have not.
That is 87% unvaccinated (I am intentionally looking for stats showing the vaccines in a bad light, not because I am anti-vax, I'm looking for the worst case risk.) Since the worst I am finding is 87% to 88% hospitalized will be the unvaccinated, that tells me we must get more vaccinated.

Huh, I hit 4 months since jab 2 of Pfizer this Sunday. I would have been better off with AZ! Ok, I've always liked AZ, in part due to its low cost and mass producibility. I serously wonder if AZ might be the smart next jab (I would think I should do a pair of jabs, not knowing any better...)

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

That is 87% unvaccinated (I am intentionally looking for stats showing the vaccines in a bad light, not because I am anti-vax, I'm looking for the worst case risk.) Since the worst I am finding is 87% to 88% hospitalized will be the unvaccinated, that tells me we must get more vaccinated.

Aside from the percentage of non-vaccinated patients vs. vaccinated ones in hospitals, I think we also need to consider the prognosis of those patients once they are hospitalized.

If I understand correctly, vaccinated patients, even if hospitalized, still retain a much better chance of making a full recovery than unvaxed ones?

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d6797 ... 0cf47bb962
Over 50 Million Japanese, almost 40% entire population, are now fully vaccinated.

Francoflier wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

That is 87% unvaccinated (I am intentionally looking for stats showing the vaccines in a bad light, not because I am anti-vax, I'm looking for the worst case risk.) Since the worst I am finding is 87% to 88% hospitalized will be the unvaccinated, that tells me we must get more vaccinated.

Aside from the percentage of non-vaccinated patients vs. vaccinated ones in hospitals, I think we also need to consider the prognosis of those patients once they are hospitalized.

If I understand correctly, vaccinated patients, even if hospitalized, still retain a much better chance of making a full recovery than unvaxed ones?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/well ... ction.html
"No data"

I am not sure how to interpret this, but it might give the impression of "kicking the can down the road".

"CDC postpones COVID-19 booster shot review amid debate over third dose"

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has pushed back by one week a meeting set to review COVID booster shots as debate swells about the requirement of a third shot, Bloomberg reports.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3732601-c ... third-dose

I think we should start to administer 3rd doses sooner rather than later. Seems to me the CDC is overly cautious.

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 210820.htm
Hong Kong Airport Authority will require all employees of specific types to be vaccinated by the end of September, medical reason will NOT be accepted as reason for exemption

Dieuwer wrote:

I think we should start to administer 3rd doses sooner rather than later. Seems to me the CDC is overly cautious.

Why though?

Is there tangible data showing that more and more vaccinated people are ending up in the hospital due to waning immunity?

Antibodies are only one facet of the immune response. They may help the more fragile start fighting off the disease faster, and in that sense, maybe a booster shot for them would be beneficial. But for the rest, is there any evidence that the long term immunity is waning as well?
Would we all really benefit from a third shot vs. allowing more people across the World to finally get some degree of immunity?

I'm not sure the science is there yet and I fear the third shot craze may be just another of the many over-reactions caused by the hyper-mediatization and general hysteria surrounding Covid.
Giving the vaccinated 7 more doses is barely going to change the toll of the virus at this stage, as long as the other 50% of the US remains unvaccinated... They're the ones crowding the hospitals.