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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Sep 09, 2021 11:33 am

Aesma wrote:
About eliminating the virus, I know it is considered impossible now, but why exactly ? Is there a study in a 90% vaccinated population or something like that showing the virus stays in one person then another etc. ?

What about herd immunity, that first idea that everyone will get the virus then be done ? In largely (even if only 70%) vaccinated countries, much less social distancing and restrictions are happening, so the virus is roaming, OK, but shouldn't everyone get it then at some point ?

Simple math.
First there isn't enough vaccine supply, if everyone need to be vaccinated every 15-20 weeks to keep effectiveness against infection, the world need to provide 2×7.8 billion doses and deliver them within 15-20 weeks, instead of 2+ years as currently anticipated.
Second, vaccines aren't effective enoigh against the virus with such infectivity. With R0 of 6-9 for Delta, that imply ~83-89% level of immunity is needed to slow down the virus transmission, but as mentioned in.my post above, even at peak effectiveness time even for mRNA vaccines, the effectiveness is only 63%, and thus cannot.provide enough immunity against the virus infection just by the vaccine along, even if everyone in the world are qualified for vaccine, actually take the vaccime, and can actually generate immunity instead of being immunocompromised.
Third, mentality of the people. While it is possible to further suppress transmission after vaccination to push the R below 1 which is currently not achievable due to less than desired efficiency of vaccines, most people after living two years of their life with their restrictions have no desire to continue following those restrictions, hence making it difficult to argumentating the vaccine's effect to push the R below 1, not to mention with the current high number of cases around the world, even if you have R less than one, it's still a very long.way until it can reach zero, unless you either.oush the R significantly below 1 to.speed up the process, which mean hard lockdown for everyone and no one can go out, no shopping center or department store keeping open, and essentially no one in the world want that now with their hospitalization rate and death rate reduced by much thanks to the vaccines.
 
StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Sep 09, 2021 1:43 pm

c933103 wrote:
Perhaps the vaccines function more like flu vaccines than we would like to...

https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/2 ... Qatar.aspx

A preprint from large scale study in Qatar say, mRNA vaccine efficiency against infection decrease significantly in 15-20 weeks after receiving the second dose, but protection from hospitalization and death decline slower, maintaining effectiveness at around for six month but declining to 70% later on.
They think this is unlikely due to age of those who got vaccinated earlier, as similar pattern have been seen in other age groups.
Also note that while the vaccine only offer 63.7% protection against asymptomatic infection even at its peak.of efficiency according to the study, compares to 80% for symptomatic.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... cine/94344

Fauci said he won't be surprised if full vaccination need three doses


I knew this from day one. Vaccines work to prevent disease and not infection and with Covid vaccines that is working exceedingly well.
I bet if you tested anyone that was exposed to other viruses we have vaccines for. After a known exposure they would also test positive but without symptoms or very mild symptoms. A virus that you have immunity to has to infect some cells to get the immune system into action. I also think other viruses such as measles are being transmitted in silence but we are nearly all vaccinated for them so no one gets symptoms. The reason I say this is that in many places where basically everyone gets this vaccine the virus will find its way into an anti-vax community. It doesn't cause a problem an we don't test for it.

Anyone who is vaccinated will maintain some degree of memory immunity to Covid that will act make reinfection seem like a cold. We are seeing this happen in highly vaccinated places already.

When infected with a pathogen, its not the pathogen that makes you sick. It is the immune response that does and if the a virus you have had or been vaccinated for cannot evade the immune system easily then its stopped before it you seriously sick.

This virus from what I have been studying has not special features that makes it like HIV as an example. It simply is novel to the human population and evades the immune system easily. Once its no longer novel then it will be a mild illness.

Aesma wrote:
About eliminating the virus, I know it is considered impossible now, but why exactly ? Is there a study in a 90% vaccinated population or something like that showing the virus stays in one person then another etc. ?

What about herd immunity, that first idea that everyone will get the virus then be done ? In largely (even if only 70%) vaccinated countries, much less social distancing and restrictions are happening, so the virus is roaming, OK, but shouldn't everyone get it then at some point ?


We only have been able to successfully eradicate one virus in human history with that being smallpox.
Even with vaccines the other viruses remain in some capacity.

What is particularly challenging about Covid is that it is primarily a respiratory infection. The upper respiratory tract is external tissue with minimal blood flow to it and viruses can replicate there and be easily transmitted. It is a non-threatening part of the body and once the virus moves to an area that is vital such as the lungs the immune system is ready for it. This is the case in a vaccinated person. In an unvaccinated person then the immune system can cause pneumonia and move to other parts of the body.

The case to get vaccinated is to not never get Covid but to make sure its a mild infection for you and not a serious one.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:06 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I think jab #4 will be a variant booster.


But if it's for variants, will there have to be jab #5 a few months later to reinforce jab #4?

I expect we will get a combined flu/coronavirus booster soon, perhaps two initially.
Moderna and NovaVax are developing combined doses, for 2022 flu jabs:
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6169305

The CDC noted declining 2-dose effectiveness, I expect them to monitor the 3rd jab.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e2.htm

I've been out do to another coronavirus exposure. I know the date I was exposed and probably who, but I should have looked at my pulse monitoring watch as I had no other symptoms. I lived life with a quarantine period until my regular physical and found my resting pulse was 154 beats per minute (was low 60s)! This is apparently a normal part of the heart inflammation with coronavirus:

https://www.healio.com/news/cardiology/ ... flammation

This is after prior coronavirus exposure. Despite 2 doses Pfizer (last dose mid April).

Being vaccinated, I believe I avoided far worse than if I were unvaccinated:
https://www.healio.com/news/cardiology/ ... th-covid19

So I am even more of a booster proponent to slow the spread.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:27 pm

UK approves safety of AZ and Pfizer as booster (details of program in work):
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19 ... r-12403130

Italy approves booster for "vulnerable" (3 million):
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/ne ... 01873.html

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Sep 09, 2021 5:55 pm

lightsaber wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I think jab #4 will be a variant booster.


But if it's for variants, will there have to be jab #5 a few months later to reinforce jab #4?

I expect we will get a combined flu/coronavirus booster soon, perhaps two initially.
Moderna and NovaVax are developing combined doses, for 2022 flu jabs:
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6169305

The CDC noted declining 2-dose effectiveness, I expect them to monitor the 3rd jab.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e2.htm

I've been out do to another coronavirus exposure. I know the date I was exposed and probably who, but I should have looked at my pulse monitoring watch as I had no other symptoms. I lived life with a quarantine period until my regular physical and found my resting pulse was 154 beats per minute (was low 60s)! This is apparently a normal part of the heart inflammation with coronavirus:

https://www.healio.com/news/cardiology/ ... flammation

This is after prior coronavirus exposure. Despite 2 doses Pfizer (last dose mid April).

Being vaccinated, I believe I avoided far worse than if I were unvaccinated:
https://www.healio.com/news/cardiology/ ... th-covid19

So I am even more of a booster proponent to slow the spread.

Lightsaber

Novavax still can't get their current vaccines approved?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Sep 09, 2021 9:59 pm

c933103 wrote:
Novavax still can't get their current vaccines approved?

It looks as if more data is required that will take another month for India to get data required to approve the vaccine. I believe that is the earliest approval possible and that is at least, by my estimate, at least two months away:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... NewsSearch

The booster approach is, in my opinion, marketing to keep investor interest. It is a good effort to sell to wealthy countries. If it frees up other vaccines, I am all for it. A good, but skeptical look at NovaVax that highlights their delays, Q4 application in USA:
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/ana ... e-booster/

I've become cynical that NovaVax will always be two months away from greatness. Since this is a large part of the COVAX doses, this impacts the world as we need billions more doses.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Sep 09, 2021 10:38 pm

Apparently, there are still 112 vaccines in development. :faint:

Lists status of Curevac (2nd attempt), Valneva, NovaVax, and some others.

https://www.biopharma-reporter.com/Arti ... ustry+News

Lightsaber
 
ThePointblank
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Thu Sep 09, 2021 11:51 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:

But if it's for variants, will there have to be jab #5 a few months later to reinforce jab #4?

I expect we will get a combined flu/coronavirus booster soon, perhaps two initially.
Moderna and NovaVax are developing combined doses, for 2022 flu jabs:
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6169305

The CDC noted declining 2-dose effectiveness, I expect them to monitor the 3rd jab.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e2.htm

I've been out do to another coronavirus exposure. I know the date I was exposed and probably who, but I should have looked at my pulse monitoring watch as I had no other symptoms. I lived life with a quarantine period until my regular physical and found my resting pulse was 154 beats per minute (was low 60s)! This is apparently a normal part of the heart inflammation with coronavirus:

https://www.healio.com/news/cardiology/ ... flammation

This is after prior coronavirus exposure. Despite 2 doses Pfizer (last dose mid April).

Being vaccinated, I believe I avoided far worse than if I were unvaccinated:
https://www.healio.com/news/cardiology/ ... th-covid19

So I am even more of a booster proponent to slow the spread.

Lightsaber

Novavax still can't get their current vaccines approved?

Novavax still hasn't submitted their vaccine for EUA with the FDA, which is concerning.

I suspect production issues is the primary reason why they haven't; they might be having trouble demonstrating that they can produce a consistent quality of product during mass production. Supply and production are all part of the approval process, and I'm aware that Novavax had slid their planned filing for their vaccine from Q3 2021 to Q4 2021.

It's what has given the Russian Sputnik vaccine issues as well; they are having problems with product consistency compared to the clinical trials samples.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:14 am

The US is moving towards a mandatory vaccine or weekly testing requirement for any employer with more than 100 employees:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/09/busi ... ndate.html

New federal safety regulations that call for businesses with more than 100 workers to require vaccinations against the coronavirus will affirm mandates already in place at many companies and give cover to employers that had yet to decide.

The proposed rules, which President Biden announced on Thursday, will require workers to be inoculated or face weekly testing and will mandate that the businesses offer employees paid time off to get vaccinated. They are the government’s biggest push yet to draw employers into a campaign to vaccinate the country.

Some 80 million workers will be affected. The requirements will be imposed by the Department of Labor and its Occupational Safety and Health Administration, which is drafting an emergency temporary standard to carry out the mandate, according to the White House.


Federal workers and contractors, as well as health care workers in hospitals and other institutions that receive Medicare and Medicaid funding are looking at a even stricter rule; mandatory vaccine, or else you'll face dismissal.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:04 am

c933103 wrote:
Perhaps the vaccines function more like flu vaccines than we would like to...

https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/2 ... Qatar.aspx

A preprint from large scale study in Qatar say, mRNA vaccine efficiency against infection decrease significantly in 15-20 weeks after receiving the second dose, but protection from hospitalization and death decline slower, maintaining effectiveness at around for six month but declining to 70% later on.
They think this is unlikely due to age of those who got vaccinated earlier, as similar pattern have been seen in other age groups.
Also note that while the vaccine only offer 63.7% protection against asymptomatic infection even at its peak.of efficiency according to the study, compares to 80% for symptomatic.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... cine/94344

Fauci said he won't be surprised if full vaccination need three doses

The graph in the essay it cited, claim that after 20 weeks of getting the first two dose of mRNA vaccine, efficiency in preventing infection is 0.0%, or in text it say "protection being reduced to a negligible level by the 20th week". But efficiency against hospitalization and death are still able to maintain at 90% level for at least 6 months.

The essay also mentioned, "Our findings may also explain the observed low effectiveness against Delta in countries where the second dose was implemented three weeks after the first dose, such as in Israel, Qatar, and the U.S., but higher effectiveness against Delta in countries where a delayed schedule has been implemented, such as in Canada18 and the United Kingdom.", indicating it is not actually that much of the case of Delta escaping immunity, but are more of a case of vaccine effect diminished.

The essay also cited another essay https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21261086v1 which claim Pfizer-vaccinated-but-infected individual usually have their CT value being ~1.3 higher than unvaccinated, Moderna-vaccinated and natural-immuity-reinfected individenuals have their CT value ~3-4 higher than unvaccinated uninfected individual, and claim it might mean infected vaccinated individual have only less than half the chance to spread the virus compares to unvaccinated individuals, under the big assumption that biral load have linear correlation between viral load and infectiousness

Both essays are preprint.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:46 pm

Vietnam has approved UAE made Sinopharm for emergency use. I didn't know production from UAE was being delivered, I still do not know quantities:
https://www.rt.com/news/534456-china-va ... roved/amp/

Test batch of Sputnik V passed testing, first manufactured in Vietnam. I do not know the timeline for certified production nor anticipated production rate:
https://m.republicworld.com/world-news/ ... infections.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Sep 10, 2021 1:50 pm

CDC just announced those that received 2 doses of NovaVax in trials will be considered fully vaccinated (not those that received placebo). I guess this is good news. But now to get manufacturing going...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... NewsSearch
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:35 pm

Some news that should make our friend lightsaber happy:
The German company BioNTech, which developed the Pfizer vaccine, expects to seek approval from regulators for Covid jabs suited for younger children as early as mid-October, its founders have said.
“Already over the next few weeks we will file the results of our trial in five- to 11-year-olds with regulators across the world."


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... r-children

Best regards and stay safe
Jonas
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:24 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
Some news that should make our friend lightsaber happy:
The German company BioNTech, which developed the Pfizer vaccine, expects to seek approval from regulators for Covid jabs suited for younger children as early as mid-October, its founders have said.
“Already over the next few weeks we will file the results of our trial in five- to 11-year-olds with regulators across the world."


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... r-children

Best regards and stay safe
Jonas

When it is available, I and many other parents will be happier. Last night was the Zoom "back to school" parents meeting. It ran 20 minutes late on Coronavirus questions. Today at school, the principal was ambushed by dozens of parents asking about the process to keep kids safe at drop off. This is an elementary school, so zero vaccinated kids.

With the current fairly full hospitals, looking locally we have only ten available ICU beds at hospitals my insurance covers (plenty at Kaiser, Catholic hospital full): :banghead:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... r-you.html

As someone who now has heart inflammation from another Covid19 exposure (I even know the friend who exposed me) after vaccinations and prior Covid19... and I posted upthread 5-17 are at as much risk as 18-49 year olds... (I'm being lazy and not refunding the CDC link)... Yea, I don't want damage to my kids not their friends.

We need to figure out a vaccine strategy that is effective vs. transmission. I believe that takes a reformulation for variants.

I know everyone wants more vaccine. That is why I posted links above about the ramp up in UAE and Vietnamese vaccine production. Prior on South Korea, Japan, and Australia producing. I am very excited about prior discussion on Chile vaccinating children, with any vaccine! Age 6+, SinoVac.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Internationa ... r-79863155

We really need to age 3 (pre-schools) soon too. I am becoming of the opinion 4 jabs and then annual boosters. Call this a gut feeling. Since we need to help the world, it is critical to boost production.

Lightsaber
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Fri Sep 10, 2021 11:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
We need to figure out a vaccine strategy that is effective vs. transmission. I believe that takes a reformulation for variants.

I don't think it is possible. The preprint I posted above say effect against infection after 20 weeks is 0.0%. No way we can make everyone vaccinate every 15-20 weeks.
Even if the other preprint's report on lower viral load among vaccinated (That conclusion was against some other data I posted previously), and assuming viral load have linear relationship with infection chance, it's still just 50%+ cut, and that would mean vaccinated after infected with Delta are still more infectious than those who have had infection with the original virus from last year, given how high Delta's R0 is.
And thus social measure is really a necessary measure to add on to to stop the transmission, if anyone actually want to stop the transmission.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:28 am

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
We need to figure out a vaccine strategy that is effective vs. transmission. I believe that takes a reformulation for variants.

I don't think it is possible. The preprint I posted above say effect against infection after 20 weeks is 0.0%. No way we can make everyone vaccinate every 15-20 weeks.
Even if the other preprint's report on lower viral load among vaccinated (That conclusion was against some other data I posted previously), and assuming viral load have linear relationship with infection chance, it's still just 50%+ cut, and that would mean vaccinated after infected with Delta are still more infectious than those who have had infection with the original virus from last year, given how high Delta's R0 is.
And thus social measure is really a necessary measure to add on to to stop the transmission, if anyone actually want to stop the transmission.

There is where I'm an optimist. There are already vaccines working on the binding mechanism in lieu of the sprike protein.
https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-arm ... d-vaccine/

3rd doses in measles tapers off, but is still elevated a year later. Not huge, but enough I think to make a difference. If covid19 vaccines follow that pattern, we'll do well. Every dose should stair step up to a new higher platau, theoretically... So the interval should be more on the order of months.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31112277/

If it takes adapting for new spike proteins or eventually the binding mechanism...
Or some tweak to extend the interval... We'll get there.

There is a correlation between titter level and efficacy fighting symptomatic disease (slide 14) and there is an initial exponential decay that fades to a 10 year half life (slide 17). How do we get the half life at a higher titter level? Each booster should go to the "half life" portion earlier

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meeti ... er-508.pdf

BTW, slide 14 has a 2nd chart that is fascinating to compare vaccines.

Lightsaber
 
yonahleung
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:14 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
We need to figure out a vaccine strategy that is effective vs. transmission. I believe that takes a reformulation for variants.

I don't think it is possible. The preprint I posted above say effect against infection after 20 weeks is 0.0%. No way we can make everyone vaccinate every 15-20 weeks.
Even if the other preprint's report on lower viral load among vaccinated (That conclusion was against some other data I posted previously), and assuming viral load have linear relationship with infection chance, it's still just 50%+ cut, and that would mean vaccinated after infected with Delta are still more infectious than those who have had infection with the original virus from last year, given how high Delta's R0 is.
And thus social measure is really a necessary measure to add on to to stop the transmission, if anyone actually want to stop the transmission.

Actually by this logic the only way to stop transmission is to infect everyone with the original virus, which I think everyone agree is actually quite safe. For those who are vaccinated, they probably will just get a mild infection. For those who refuse to vaccinate, they believe getting the virus is safer than getting the vaccine. So it is a win-win situation and may be that is the realistic end to the pandemic.
 
Dupli
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:45 pm

c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
We need to figure out a vaccine strategy that is effective vs. transmission. I believe that takes a reformulation for variants.

I don't think it is possible. The preprint I posted above say effect against infection after 20 weeks is 0.0%. No way we can make everyone vaccinate every 15-20 weeks.


In my opinion, nasal spray vaccines are the most promising. Immunity right at the entry point of the body, and easy to administer frequently.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French- ... asal-spray
Dr Mielcarek, who is working on a nasal vaccine against whooping cough with the Institut Pasteur de Lille, said: “It is a particular type of immunity that is conferred on the mucous membranes, notably by IgA (immunoglobulin A) antibodies.

“This is very pertinent in cases of viral infection like Covid because this immunity prevents the virus from entering the cells."

Dr Mielcarek called this a ‘local immunisation’ that creates a ‘local response’. She said: “They potentially have a barrier effect, stopping the virus from entering.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:45 pm

Dupli wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
We need to figure out a vaccine strategy that is effective vs. transmission. I believe that takes a reformulation for variants.

I don't think it is possible. The preprint I posted above say effect against infection after 20 weeks is 0.0%. No way we can make everyone vaccinate every 15-20 weeks.


In my opinion, nasal spray vaccines are the most promising. Immunity right at the entry point of the body, and easy to administer frequently.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French- ... asal-spray
Dr Mielcarek, who is working on a nasal vaccine against whooping cough with the Institut Pasteur de Lille, said: “It is a particular type of immunity that is conferred on the mucous membranes, notably by IgA (immunoglobulin A) antibodies.

“This is very pertinent in cases of viral infection like Covid because this immunity prevents the virus from entering the cells."

Dr Mielcarek called this a ‘local immunisation’ that creates a ‘local response’. She said: “They potentially have a barrier effect, stopping the virus from entering.

After a base vaccine regimen of two injections, I am a fan of attempting this strategy. However, I do not know how often it would be required?

That requires a much larger vaccine production than is envisioned. I can just see it now, before meeting an online date, you approach, then both sniff! LoL

Lightsaber
 
avier
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Dupli wrote:

In my opinion, nasal spray vaccines are the most promising. Immunity right at the entry point of the body, and easy to administer frequently.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French- ... asal-spray
Dr Mielcarek, who is working on a nasal vaccine against whooping cough with the Institut Pasteur de Lille, said: “It is a particular type of immunity that is conferred on the mucous membranes, notably by IgA (immunoglobulin A) antibodies.

“This is very pertinent in cases of viral infection like Covid because this immunity prevents the virus from entering the cells."

Dr Mielcarek called this a ‘local immunisation’ that creates a ‘local response’. She said: “They potentially have a barrier effect, stopping the virus from entering.

After a base vaccine regimen of two injections, I am a fan of attempting this strategy. However, I do not know how often it would be required?

That requires a much larger vaccine production than is envisioned. I can just see it now, before meeting an online date, you approach, then both sniff! LoL

Lightsaber

Bharat Biotech in India, that makes the Covaxin, will be coming out with their nasal spray vaccine for covid19 ​soon. Their results seem promising, from what they state. Let's see what data their clinical trials actually come out with.
https://www.bharatbiotech.com/intranasal-vaccine.html
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 41143.html
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/aiims- ... 047124.cms

I wonder if the nasal spray concept, being researched and developed by various institutes, could be something which one could take themselves rather than going to a clinic or somewhere to have it done by a medical staff.
 
SL1200MK2
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:26 am

Dupli wrote:
c933103 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
We need to figure out a vaccine strategy that is effective vs. transmission. I believe that takes a reformulation for variants.

I don't think it is possible. The preprint I posted above say effect against infection after 20 weeks is 0.0%. No way we can make everyone vaccinate every 15-20 weeks.


In my opinion, nasal spray vaccines are the most promising. Immunity right at the entry point of the body, and easy to administer frequently.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French- ... asal-spray
Dr Mielcarek, who is working on a nasal vaccine against whooping cough with the Institut Pasteur de Lille, said: “It is a particular type of immunity that is conferred on the mucous membranes, notably by IgA (immunoglobulin A) antibodies.

“This is very pertinent in cases of viral infection like Covid because this immunity prevents the virus from entering the cells."

Dr Mielcarek called this a ‘local immunisation’ that creates a ‘local response’. She said: “They potentially have a barrier effect, stopping the virus from entering.



I’m curious as to if it makes a difference where it’s administered. In that isn’t the building of immunity something that takes place not necessarily where infection enters the body?

I’m far far from a doctor, but I believe this happens in our glands and the such.

Nonetheless, I think the idea of a nasal spray is great and I bet more people would be willing to take it.
 
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:53 am

UK has terminated contract with Valneva:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/u ... NewsSearch

I personally wasn't super excited about this vaccine, but more supply would have been a good thing.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:23 pm

avier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Dupli wrote:

In my opinion, nasal spray vaccines are the most promising. Immunity right at the entry point of the body, and easy to administer frequently.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French- ... asal-spray

After a base vaccine regimen of two injections, I am a fan of attempting this strategy. However, I do not know how often it would be required?

That requires a much larger vaccine production than is envisioned. I can just see it now, before meeting an online date, you approach, then both sniff! LoL

Lightsaber

Bharat Biotech in India, that makes the Covaxin, will be coming out with their nasal spray vaccine for covid19 ​soon. Their results seem promising, from what they state. Let's see what data their clinical trials actually come out with.
https://www.bharatbiotech.com/intranasal-vaccine.html
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 41143.html
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/aiims- ... 047124.cms

I wonder if the nasal spray concept, being researched and developed by various institutes, could be something which one could take themselves rather than going to a clinic or somewhere to have it done by a medical staff.


How would it be a good idea to have a nasal spray vaccine that isn't taken under supervision in a clinic? There's too many ways people could screw it up. How could documentation be provide that a person self administering a vaccine at home actually got the vaccine?
 
avier
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:24 pm

India has administered a total of 750 million doses of vaccine. A massive feat indeed. To put into perspective, that is enough doses to vaccinate the entire US population with both doses of vaccine (first two jabs, not boosters).

https://www.news18.com/amp/news/india/i ... 99378.html
 
avier
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:29 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
How would it be a good idea to have a nasal spray vaccine that isn't taken under supervision in a clinic? There's too many ways people could screw it up. How could documentation be provide that a person self administering a vaccine at home actually got the vaccine?

It should be for the future booster shots. The ones who have taken the initial doses wouldn't have an issue in being honest about taking it and documenting it themselves online i.e assuming it's done online everywhere and not on physical cards. Atleast where I live it's completely digital.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:02 pm

Just total irresponsibility on display from state of FL government - at a presser today they allowed a guy to propound misinfo that the vaccine changes our RNA:

https://twitter.com/kevincate/status/14 ... 90082?s=21

:banghead:
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:13 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Just total irresponsibility on display from state of FL government - at a presser today they allowed a guy to propound misinfo that the vaccine changes our RNA:

https://twitter.com/kevincate/status/14 ... 90082?s=21

:banghead:


It is a terrible tragedy that Florida has elected officials in such high places enabling the proliferation of the pandemic , especially with all the available science information available at the University of Florida which is in the same city.


https://coronavirus.ufl.edu/health-guidance/

COVID-19 cases are surging because of the new delta variant and the large numbers of people who are unvaccinated, setting new local and state records for hospitalizations.

All of us at the University of Florida have an obligation to each do our part to prevent further transmission of COVID-19. We are in this together, and each and every one of us plays an important role in furthering the health and safety of ourselves, our neighbors and our loved ones. It is the right thing to do — and medical experts say vaccination and masking are the best ways to do it.



Hopefully more people will listen to experts instead of corrupt politicians such as those present in the Florida State Government.


And it gets worse.

Desantis has gone on record announcing that any city Government that requires vaccinations will face 5,000 dollar fines.

https://www.wesh.com/article/desantis-c ... /37577022#

In a news conference on Monday, Gov. Ron DeSantis leveled a bold threat against the cities and counties of Florida.

Reports indicate during a rally in Alachua County, the governor stated that any city or county that requires COVID-19 vaccination of employees will face a $5,000 fine per infracti
.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:33 pm

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6404400 article in Japanese
Singapore
Vaccination rate reached 81%, with only mRNA vaccines being counted according to my understanding (They also provide Chinese vaccines, but those are provided under condition and term of at your own cost and at your own risk, and those who took Chinese attenuated virus vaccines cannot use their vaccination record to pass domestic vaccination check in Singapore) about half of the un-vaccinated are children younger than 12 who don't have vaccines approved for them
Yet infection is still rapidly spreading, reaching 500+ in consecutive days, with the city population of only ~3 million, and have been the worst for the city for over a year.
There were 3516 vaccinated being infected and 616 unvaccinated being infected. Among those, 25 vaccinated got seriously ill but 28 unvaccinated for seriously ill. Effectiveness of vaccine preventing severe cases can be seen here.
The spread of infection follows their policy change in August, which for example allow vaccinated people to dine in in groups of up to five.
It's spreading via facilities like raw markets and commercial facilities, with Delta.
The Ministry of Health in Singapore suggest it'd be difficult to obtain herd immunity unless vaccination rate significantly exceed 90%
Currently, the level of serve case in Singapore haven't rise as much together with infection count. The Singaporean government will keep a close eyes on the level of severe case. If the number of severe patients increase rapidly in following weeks then they will go back to lockdown, else if the number of severe case aren't increasing much despite increased infection then they'll continue relaxing it.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-09-13/ article in English
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... r-everyone Local article and opinion
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:22 am

c933103 wrote:
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6404400 article in Japanese
Singapore
Vaccination rate reached 81%, with only mRNA vaccines being counted according to my understanding (They also provide Chinese vaccines, but those are provided under condition and term of at your own cost and at your own risk, and those who took Chinese attenuated virus vaccines cannot use their vaccination record to pass domestic vaccination check in Singapore) about half of the un-vaccinated are children younger than 12 who don't have vaccines approved for them
Yet infection is still rapidly spreading, reaching 500+ in consecutive days, with the city population of only ~3 million, and have been the worst for the city for over a year.
There were 3516 vaccinated being infected and 616 unvaccinated being infected. Among those, 25 vaccinated got seriously ill but 28 unvaccinated for seriously ill. Effectiveness of vaccine preventing severe cases can be seen here.
The spread of infection follows their policy change in August, which for example allow vaccinated people to dine in in groups of up to five.
It's spreading via facilities like raw markets and commercial facilities, with Delta.
The Ministry of Health in Singapore suggest it'd be difficult to obtain herd immunity unless vaccination rate significantly exceed 90%
Currently, the level of serve case in Singapore haven't rise as much together with infection count. The Singaporean government will keep a close eyes on the level of severe case. If the number of severe patients increase rapidly in following weeks then they will go back to lockdown, else if the number of severe case aren't increasing much despite increased infection then they'll continue relaxing it.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-09-13/ article in English
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... r-everyone Local article and opinion


Australia is watching SIngapore quite closely. Almost half of the country is currently in lockdown, but it is projected that 70% of the 16+yo population will be fully vaccinated (Pfizer and AZ, some Moderna coming online now). 12-15yo became generally eligble for vaccination with mRNA vaccines from yesterday. I understand that the SIngapore figure is total population rather than vaccine eligible.

There is a broad commitment in the locked down states to ease restrictions once 16+ vax coverage exceeds 70%, with further easing including internation travel withouth hotel quarantine on return once 80% is reached nearer December.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:23 am

Kent350787 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6404400 article in Japanese
Singapore
Vaccination rate reached 81%, with only mRNA vaccines being counted according to my understanding (They also provide Chinese vaccines, but those are provided under condition and term of at your own cost and at your own risk, and those who took Chinese attenuated virus vaccines cannot use their vaccination record to pass domestic vaccination check in Singapore) about half of the un-vaccinated are children younger than 12 who don't have vaccines approved for them
Yet infection is still rapidly spreading, reaching 500+ in consecutive days, with the city population of only ~3 million, and have been the worst for the city for over a year.
There were 3516 vaccinated being infected and 616 unvaccinated being infected. Among those, 25 vaccinated got seriously ill but 28 unvaccinated for seriously ill. Effectiveness of vaccine preventing severe cases can be seen here.
The spread of infection follows their policy change in August, which for example allow vaccinated people to dine in in groups of up to five.
It's spreading via facilities like raw markets and commercial facilities, with Delta.
The Ministry of Health in Singapore suggest it'd be difficult to obtain herd immunity unless vaccination rate significantly exceed 90%
Currently, the level of serve case in Singapore haven't rise as much together with infection count. The Singaporean government will keep a close eyes on the level of severe case. If the number of severe patients increase rapidly in following weeks then they will go back to lockdown, else if the number of severe case aren't increasing much despite increased infection then they'll continue relaxing it.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 021-09-13/ article in English
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... r-everyone Local article and opinion


Australia is watching SIngapore quite closely. Almost half of the country is currently in lockdown, but it is projected that 70% of the 16+yo population will be fully vaccinated (Pfizer and AZ, some Moderna coming online now). 12-15yo became generally eligble for vaccination with mRNA vaccines from yesterday. I understand that the SIngapore figure is total population rather than vaccine eligible.

There is a broad commitment in the locked down states to ease restrictions once 16+ vax coverage exceeds 70%, with further easing including internation travel withouth hotel quarantine on return once 80% is reached nearer December.

16+ exceed 70% would mean 60% among whole population, which would put them in a similar situation as Israel, and as Israel have shown that isn't enough
Also SIngapore was also going to opening up when 80% population vaccinated, but current trend pushed their policy other way rounf
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2030
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:25 am

c933103 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
[
Australia is watching SIngapore quite closely. Almost half of the country is currently in lockdown, but it is projected that 70% of the 16+yo population will be fully vaccinated (Pfizer and AZ, some Moderna coming online now). 12-15yo became generally eligble for vaccination with mRNA vaccines from yesterday. I understand that the SIngapore figure is total population rather than vaccine eligible.

There is a broad commitment in the locked down states to ease restrictions once 16+ vax coverage exceeds 70%, with further easing including internation travel withouth hotel quarantine on return once 80% is reached nearer December.

16+ exceed 70% would mean 60% among whole population, which would put them in a similar situation as Israel, and as Israel have shown that isn't enough
Also SIngapore was also going to opening up when 80% population vaccinated, but current trend pushed their policy other way rounf


The difference being easing some restrictions rather than removing restrictions at 70%. Things like allowing fully vaccinated adults only to get a haircut or sit down to a meal in a restaurant.

80% 16+ would see a further easing and at the same time 12-15 is being vaccinated. Parts of my city have already passed 15+ 90% first dose, and some are nearing 60% two doses. Statewide, 16+ is almost 79% first dose.

There reamins considerable discussion around the risks and modelling of easing restrictions, and there is also a reasonaned school of thought that local elimiination should be the target bfeore reopening, rather than increases in vax rates.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:58 am

Kent350787 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
[
Australia is watching SIngapore quite closely. Almost half of the country is currently in lockdown, but it is projected that 70% of the 16+yo population will be fully vaccinated (Pfizer and AZ, some Moderna coming online now). 12-15yo became generally eligble for vaccination with mRNA vaccines from yesterday. I understand that the SIngapore figure is total population rather than vaccine eligible.

There is a broad commitment in the locked down states to ease restrictions once 16+ vax coverage exceeds 70%, with further easing including internation travel withouth hotel quarantine on return once 80% is reached nearer December.

16+ exceed 70% would mean 60% among whole population, which would put them in a similar situation as Israel, and as Israel have shown that isn't enough
Also SIngapore was also going to opening up when 80% population vaccinated, but current trend pushed their policy other way rounf


The difference being easing some restrictions rather than removing restrictions at 70%. Things like allowing fully vaccinated adults only to get a haircut or sit down to a meal in a restaurant.

80% 16+ would see a further easing and at the same time 12-15 is being vaccinated. Parts of my city have already passed 15+ 90% first dose, and some are nearing 60% two doses. Statewide, 16+ is almost 79% first dose.

There reamins considerable discussion around the risks and modelling of easing restrictions, and there is also a reasonaned school of thought that local elimiination should be the target bfeore reopening, rather than increases in vax rates.

Fully vaccinated mean two weeks after second dose, which mean when immunity will be developed fully. Counting prematurely on first dose rate can give a hope into future, but shouldn't be count on for reopening policy
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2030
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:05 am

c933103 wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
16+ exceed 70% would mean 60% among whole population, which would put them in a similar situation as Israel, and as Israel have shown that isn't enough
Also SIngapore was also going to opening up when 80% population vaccinated, but current trend pushed their policy other way rounf


The difference being easing some restrictions rather than removing restrictions at 70%. Things like allowing fully vaccinated adults only to get a haircut or sit down to a meal in a restaurant.

80% 16+ would see a further easing and at the same time 12-15 is being vaccinated. Parts of my city have already passed 15+ 90% first dose, and some are nearing 60% two doses. Statewide, 16+ is almost 79% first dose.

There reamins considerable discussion around the risks and modelling of easing restrictions, and there is also a reasonaned school of thought that local elimiination should be the target bfeore reopening, rather than increases in vax rates.

Fully vaccinated mean two weeks after second dose, which mean when immunity will be developed fully. Counting prematurely on first dose rate can give a hope into future, but shouldn't be count on for reopening policy


The positive on the high first dose rates is that they should relatively quickly translate into cimilarly high second dose rates. The easing of restrictions is based on full vaccination, not single doses.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:33 am

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/covid- ... 021-09-13/

The FDA is putting a damper on the third shot craze by saying it is not necessary for most people.


c933103 wrote:
Also SIngapore was also going to opening up when 80% population vaccinated, but current trend pushed their policy other way rounf


Kent350787 wrote:

There reamins considerable discussion around the risks and modelling of easing restrictions, and there is also a reasonaned school of thought that local elimiination should be the target bfeore reopening, rather than increases in vax rates.


I'm still puzzled at the claims of 'opening up' by all those nations that are committed to a zero-covid strategy, like Singapore and Australia.

The two notions are antitethic and illusory, as demonstrated by the harsh and frenzied response to small outbreaks in those places.
How is this behavior in any way compatible with opening up travel and reducing restrictions, which will necessarily allow the virus to spread?

You either vaccinate as much as possible and then open up while accepting that caseload, hospitalizations and even deaths will increase, or you keep everything closed up forever... because this virus is never going away.
Vaccines have shown that while they help in decreasing transmission somewhat, they still do allow the virus to spread. While they are very good at keeping people out of hospitals and morgues, they do not entirely stop the worst from happening.

The only realistic way forward is to increase overall immunity through immunization and complete it with exposure.
There is an amazing level of denial in some parts of the World where the belief that infection can be avoided altogether somehow still persists. I suppose it is human nature to run away from a threat and to refuse to acknowledge the unspeakable, no matter how futile the effort is. No politician will ever want to admit that they are fighting a losing battle, especially when they've made elimination their policy for over a year and bathed in the praise it brought them.

The nations that will emerge from this crisis first are the ones that will have built immunity the fastest, one way or another.
 
Toenga
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:44 am

Fascinating experiment now taking place in Australasia.
Just three months ago Australia and NZ had eliminated community transmission of covid and were enjoying a remarkably restriction free life and even quarantine free travel between us while we slowly vaccinated our respective populations.

Then NSW had an outbreak of delta, and locked down, borders closed and national vaccination programs rapidly sped up.
This outbreak seeded other outbreaks in VIC, NT, WA, SA QLD ACT and NZ. NT, QLD SA and WA quickly quenched their small outbreaks and with closed borders internally reopened. VIC quenched the first outbreak but have not been successful in quenching subsequent outbreaks so have joined NSW and ACT in suppressing by lockdown until their vaccination program has reached levels of 70% and then 80% of over 15 year olds fully vaccinated. Then Federal Government has proposed for all of Australia a two staged reopening including international borders. The states without covid transmission currently and without therefore the internal restrictions are pushing back against this in varying degrees. These 70 and 80% vaccination levels are expected to be attained between late October and mid December depending on who you are listening to.
But they are hopeful of reopening state and international borders for Christmas.
NZ is currently vigorously attempting to reestablish elimination from it's current large outbreak just approaching 1000 cases. Hopefully in the next three to four weeks, 15 cases only today, in which case it can fully internally open up while proceeding with its vaccination program of everybody over the age of 11. It is not envisaging any international reopening until everybody has had reasonable chance to be vaccinated, on current rates this should be year end.
There is no economic imperative to bring in foreign tourists into what is expected to be a very busy summer holiday season anyway.
So plenty of time to observe reopenings elsewhere in the world and adapt and tailor our risk evaluation criteria rather then a crude arbitary vaccination level of over 15 year olds. So perhaps Q2 next year.
As I said a fascinating experiment. Current vaccination levels on doses per million of population are remarkably similar in NZ and Australia but the distribution between first and second doses and by age are quite different.
And the results of these experiments should be apparent in just six months.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:19 pm

Francoflier wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/covid-19-vaccine-boosters-not-widely-needed-top-fda-who-scientists-say-2021-09-13/

The FDA is putting a damper on the third shot craze by saying it is not necessary for most people.


c933103 wrote:
Also SIngapore was also going to opening up when 80% population vaccinated, but current trend pushed their policy other way rounf


Kent350787 wrote:

There reamins considerable discussion around the risks and modelling of easing restrictions, and there is also a reasonaned school of thought that local elimiination should be the target bfeore reopening, rather than increases in vax rates.


I'm still puzzled at the claims of 'opening up' by all those nations that are committed to a zero-covid strategy, like Singapore and Australia.

The two notions are antitethic and illusory, as demonstrated by the harsh and frenzied response to small outbreaks in those places.
How is this behavior in any way compatible with opening up travel and reducing restrictions, which will necessarily allow the virus to spread?

You either vaccinate as much as possible and then open up while accepting that caseload, hospitalizations and even deaths will increase, or you keep everything closed up forever... because this virus is never going away.
Vaccines have shown that while they help in decreasing transmission somewhat, they still do allow the virus to spread. While they are very good at keeping people out of hospitals and morgues, they do not entirely stop the worst from happening.

The only realistic way forward is to increase overall immunity through immunization and complete it with exposure.
There is an amazing level of denial in some parts of the World where the belief that infection can be avoided altogether somehow still persists. I suppose it is human nature to run away from a threat and to refuse to acknowledge the unspeakable, no matter how futile the effort is. No politician will ever want to admit that they are fighting a losing battle, especially when they've made elimination their policy for over a year and bathed in the praise it brought them.

The nations that will emerge from this crisis first are the ones that will have built immunity the fastest, one way or another.

A while ago, Singapore have announced they have given up zero covid strategy, and decided to terminate discussion of travel bubble with HK government because of this, since HK government still want zero covid
 
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Aaron747
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:25 pm

c933103 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/covid-19-vaccine-boosters-not-widely-needed-top-fda-who-scientists-say-2021-09-13/

The FDA is putting a damper on the third shot craze by saying it is not necessary for most people.


c933103 wrote:
Also SIngapore was also going to opening up when 80% population vaccinated, but current trend pushed their policy other way rounf


Kent350787 wrote:

There reamins considerable discussion around the risks and modelling of easing restrictions, and there is also a reasonaned school of thought that local elimiination should be the target bfeore reopening, rather than increases in vax rates.


I'm still puzzled at the claims of 'opening up' by all those nations that are committed to a zero-covid strategy, like Singapore and Australia.

The two notions are antitethic and illusory, as demonstrated by the harsh and frenzied response to small outbreaks in those places.
How is this behavior in any way compatible with opening up travel and reducing restrictions, which will necessarily allow the virus to spread?

You either vaccinate as much as possible and then open up while accepting that caseload, hospitalizations and even deaths will increase, or you keep everything closed up forever... because this virus is never going away.
Vaccines have shown that while they help in decreasing transmission somewhat, they still do allow the virus to spread. While they are very good at keeping people out of hospitals and morgues, they do not entirely stop the worst from happening.

The only realistic way forward is to increase overall immunity through immunization and complete it with exposure.
There is an amazing level of denial in some parts of the World where the belief that infection can be avoided altogether somehow still persists. I suppose it is human nature to run away from a threat and to refuse to acknowledge the unspeakable, no matter how futile the effort is. No politician will ever want to admit that they are fighting a losing battle, especially when they've made elimination their policy for over a year and bathed in the praise it brought them.

The nations that will emerge from this crisis first are the ones that will have built immunity the fastest, one way or another.

A while ago, Singapore have announced they have given up zero covid strategy, and decided to terminate discussion of travel bubble with HK government because of this, since HK government still want zero covid


Zero COVID doesn’t work - it’s amazing its pursued at all with vaccines available and working well.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 89
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:59 pm

Francoflier wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/covid-19-vaccine-boosters-not-widely-needed-top-fda-who-scientists-say-2021-09-13/

The FDA is putting a damper on the third shot craze by saying it is not necessary for most people.


c933103 wrote:
Also SIngapore was also going to opening up when 80% population vaccinated, but current trend pushed their policy other way rounf


Kent350787 wrote:

There reamins considerable discussion around the risks and modelling of easing restrictions, and there is also a reasonaned school of thought that local elimiination should be the target bfeore reopening, rather than increases in vax rates.


I'm still puzzled at the claims of 'opening up' by all those nations that are committed to a zero-covid strategy, like Singapore and Australia.

The two notions are antitethic and illusory, as demonstrated by the harsh and frenzied response to small outbreaks in those places.
How is this behavior in any way compatible with opening up travel and reducing restrictions, which will necessarily allow the virus to spread?

You either vaccinate as much as possible and then open up while accepting that caseload, hospitalizations and even deaths will increase, or you keep everything closed up forever... because this virus is never going away.
Vaccines have shown that while they help in decreasing transmission somewhat, they still do allow the virus to spread. While they are very good at keeping people out of hospitals and morgues, they do not entirely stop the worst from happening.

The only realistic way forward is to increase overall immunity through immunization and complete it with exposure.
There is an amazing level of denial in some parts of the World where the belief that infection can be avoided altogether somehow still persists. I suppose it is human nature to run away from a threat and to refuse to acknowledge the unspeakable, no matter how futile the effort is. No politician will ever want to admit that they are fighting a losing battle, especially when they've made elimination their policy for over a year and bathed in the praise it brought them.

The nations that will emerge from this crisis first are the ones that will have built immunity the fastest, one way or another.

As said by others, Singapore and Australia have both abandoned zero covid.
Zero-Covid is only pursued by China, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and New Zealand now.
For the CCP-dominions, I guess it is like communism, everyone knows it is not workable in the long run but as it is one of the core values of the communist party you need to ruin everyone's life to make it work, otherwise the communist party can't justify its existence.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:45 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/covid-19-vaccine-boosters-not-widely-needed-top-fda-who-scientists-say-2021-09-13/

The FDA is putting a damper on the third shot craze by saying it is not necessary for most people.






I'm still puzzled at the claims of 'opening up' by all those nations that are committed to a zero-covid strategy, like Singapore and Australia.

The two notions are antitethic and illusory, as demonstrated by the harsh and frenzied response to small outbreaks in those places.
How is this behavior in any way compatible with opening up travel and reducing restrictions, which will necessarily allow the virus to spread?

You either vaccinate as much as possible and then open up while accepting that caseload, hospitalizations and even deaths will increase, or you keep everything closed up forever... because this virus is never going away.
Vaccines have shown that while they help in decreasing transmission somewhat, they still do allow the virus to spread. While they are very good at keeping people out of hospitals and morgues, they do not entirely stop the worst from happening.

The only realistic way forward is to increase overall immunity through immunization and complete it with exposure.
There is an amazing level of denial in some parts of the World where the belief that infection can be avoided altogether somehow still persists. I suppose it is human nature to run away from a threat and to refuse to acknowledge the unspeakable, no matter how futile the effort is. No politician will ever want to admit that they are fighting a losing battle, especially when they've made elimination their policy for over a year and bathed in the praise it brought them.

The nations that will emerge from this crisis first are the ones that will have built immunity the fastest, one way or another.

A while ago, Singapore have announced they have given up zero covid strategy, and decided to terminate discussion of travel bubble with HK government because of this, since HK government still want zero covid


Zero COVID doesn’t work - it’s amazing its pursued at all with vaccines available and working well.

Well, worked for them until Delta hit
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:50 pm

yonahleung wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/covid-19-vaccine-boosters-not-widely-needed-top-fda-who-scientists-say-2021-09-13/

The FDA is putting a damper on the third shot craze by saying it is not necessary for most people.


c933103 wrote:
Also SIngapore was also going to opening up when 80% population vaccinated, but current trend pushed their policy other way rounf


Kent350787 wrote:

There reamins considerable discussion around the risks and modelling of easing restrictions, and there is also a reasonaned school of thought that local elimiination should be the target bfeore reopening, rather than increases in vax rates.


I'm still puzzled at the claims of 'opening up' by all those nations that are committed to a zero-covid strategy, like Singapore and Australia.

The two notions are antitethic and illusory, as demonstrated by the harsh and frenzied response to small outbreaks in those places.
How is this behavior in any way compatible with opening up travel and reducing restrictions, which will necessarily allow the virus to spread?

You either vaccinate as much as possible and then open up while accepting that caseload, hospitalizations and even deaths will increase, or you keep everything closed up forever... because this virus is never going away.
Vaccines have shown that while they help in decreasing transmission somewhat, they still do allow the virus to spread. While they are very good at keeping people out of hospitals and morgues, they do not entirely stop the worst from happening.

The only realistic way forward is to increase overall immunity through immunization and complete it with exposure.
There is an amazing level of denial in some parts of the World where the belief that infection can be avoided altogether somehow still persists. I suppose it is human nature to run away from a threat and to refuse to acknowledge the unspeakable, no matter how futile the effort is. No politician will ever want to admit that they are fighting a losing battle, especially when they've made elimination their policy for over a year and bathed in the praise it brought them.

The nations that will emerge from this crisis first are the ones that will have built immunity the fastest, one way or another.

As said by others, Singapore and Australia have both abandoned zero covid.
Zero-Covid is only pursued by China, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and New Zealand now.
For the CCP-dominions, I guess it is like communism, everyone knows it is not workable in the long run but as it is one of the core values of the communist party you need to ruin everyone's life to make it work, otherwise the communist party can't justify its existence.

Zero coronavirus was never Taiwan's strategy. Taiwan's strategy was to keep the real time infectivity low enough that even when there're cases leaked into community they won't cause further transmission. Hence they allowed a numbers of shortened quarantine arrangement. Few months ago there was a larger scale outbreak which was basically controlled with stricter social distancing measure and school closure without needing to implement lockdown. But the thing to watch in Taiwan now is that they are now starting to face transmission of Delta into inside their border, and it'd be much harder to keep Delta's infectivity rate at less than 1 without impacting daily life.
 
Kent350787
Posts: 2030
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:07 pm

c933103 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
A while ago, Singapore have announced they have given up zero covid strategy, and decided to terminate discussion of travel bubble with HK government because of this, since HK government still want zero covid


Zero COVID doesn’t work - it’s amazing its pursued at all with vaccines available and working well.

Well, worked for them until Delta hit


It was a successful strategy until Delta, but there was always the question of reopening to a non-Covid zero world.

There is serious discussion in Australia today around whether the massive increase in vaccination (now over 50% fully vaccinated and 90% first dose in the worst affected areas) or the lockdown has had the greatest impact in restricting growth in caseloads. In NSW, we are very hopeful that our peak of daily new cases has now passed. Victoria is seeing that strategies that elimanted the original strain last following a large outbreak are far less sucessful against Delta.

Although there is a nominal national commitment to vaccination targets as a trigger for international reopening, some states that are Covid free and nearing elimination are resisting this. It may be that NSW and Victoria, which together have almost half the national population, reopen internationally before residents are able to travel to other Australian states. It could even be that NZ and Western Australia, both of which contionue to seek elimination, open to each other but are isolated from the rest Australia and the rest of the world.

No-one wants Delta or subsequent variants but, once established in a community, the social and economic cost of elimination in a world where it is increasingly endemic appears far too high in the medum to longer term. Reopning based on vaccine coverage is an "experiment" with significant ethical challenges.
 
Dupli
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:13 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Zero COVID doesn’t work - it’s amazing its pursued at all with vaccines available and working well.


Not exactly right. There is no vaccine for my children. Besides, I don't agree the vaccines are working well, at least not well enough: no sterilising immunity, limited effectiveness against certain variants and quickly decreasing immunity over time...

For the moment, the countries pursuing zero COVID are still doing the best job of protecting there population from harm and at the same time allowing their populations most freedom.
That might change, but I don't think the current knowledge about COVID and the current vaccines warrant such a change.
 
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par13del
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:59 pm

Dupli wrote:
For the moment, the countries pursuing zero COVID are still doing the best job of protecting there population from harm and at the same time allowing their populations most freedom.
That might change, but I don't think the current knowledge about COVID and the current vaccines warrant such a change.

In time we will find out how much protection can be provided against the financial damage that countries and their citizens will endure in the years ahead.
Priority at this time is physical protection, which is voluntary for most - those without vaccines and hesitancy -, as long as folks buy in they will continue to endure the restrictions, unfortunately, a number are opting for not following protocols and no vaccines, so plan C is the open question.
 
extender
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:28 pm

I guess they're special:

Sources: NBA players won't be required to get COVID-19 vaccination

NBA players will not be mandated to get vaccinated against COVID-19, league sources tell ESPN.

The NBA and NBPA continue to negotiate aspects of COVID-related protocols and procedures for the upcoming 2021-22 campaign, but the NBPA has refused to budge on its demand that players not be required to take the vaccine, sources say, and any proposal that mandates vaccination remains a "non-starter."

Link


So how does that work out for the rest of us? Is Joe going to lose patience with them?
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5034
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:37 pm

Denmark is at about the 75% of the population vaccinated, and that seems to be enough to allow the entire economy to function - hospitals, work, entertainment, schools.
https://time.com/6096807/denmark-covid-19/
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:44 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Denmark is at about the 75% of the population vaccinated, and that seems to be enough to allow the entire economy to function - hospitals, work, entertainment, schools.
https://time.com/6096807/denmark-covid-19/



That is awesome. If only we didn't have so many right wing misinformed people in this country, we might get close to that. Alas, probably not anytime soon.
Here in the USA, we are still dragging.

The Northeast states are getting close though,.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... cent-pop12

Mississippi , Alabama, West Virginia, and Wyoming are working hard on Ditch Digging.
 
extender
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Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:52 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:55 pm

casinterest wrote:
That is awesome. If only we didn't have so many right wing misinformed people in this country, we might get close to that.


I doubt that the NBA players are right wing people.
 
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casinterest
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Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:11 pm

extender wrote:
casinterest wrote:
That is awesome. If only we didn't have so many right wing misinformed people in this country, we might get close to that.


I doubt that the NBA players are right wing people.

Wasn't responding to your quote.
Do you have percentages on NBA vaccinations?

I do. And they as a collective have a higher vaccination rate than any State in the US.
 
extender
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Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:52 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:21 pm

casinterest wrote:
Do you have percentages on NBA vaccinations?

I do. And they as a collective have a higher vaccination rate than any State in the US.


You do? Let's see them.
 
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casinterest
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Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:24 pm

extender wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Do you have percentages on NBA vaccinations?

I do. And they as a collective have a higher vaccination rate than any State in the US.


You do? Let's see them.


Google is your friend.

https://www.netsdaily.com/2021/9/14/226 ... hat-matter
The NBA said recently that 85 percent of its players — a pool of roughly 500 players on either standard deals or two-ways — are vaccinated. That means that 75 players are not, not an insignificant number.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/320 ... -22-season
The NBA has set an Oct. 1 deadline for team personnel to be fully vaccinated and left open the possibility that it could require a booster shot at a later date, according to the memo.

The mandate applies to all personnel who will work near the court, including broadcasters, scoreboard operators, photographers and security personnel. Also required are all back-of-house operations, including locker room attendants, medical staff, equipment managers, and food and beverage handlers and providers.

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