Aesma wrote:About eliminating the virus, I know it is considered impossible now, but why exactly ? Is there a study in a 90% vaccinated population or something like that showing the virus stays in one person then another etc. ?
What about herd immunity, that first idea that everyone will get the virus then be done ? In largely (even if only 70%) vaccinated countries, much less social distancing and restrictions are happening, so the virus is roaming, OK, but shouldn't everyone get it then at some point ?
First there isn't enough vaccine supply, if everyone need to be vaccinated every 15-20 weeks to keep effectiveness against infection, the world need to provide 2×7.8 billion doses and deliver them within 15-20 weeks, instead of 2+ years as currently anticipated.
Second, vaccines aren't effective enoigh against the virus with such infectivity. With R0 of 6-9 for Delta, that imply ~83-89% level of immunity is needed to slow down the virus transmission, but as mentioned in.my post above, even at peak effectiveness time even for mRNA vaccines, the effectiveness is only 63%, and thus cannot.provide enough immunity against the virus infection just by the vaccine along, even if everyone in the world are qualified for vaccine, actually take the vaccime, and can actually generate immunity instead of being immunocompromised.
Third, mentality of the people. While it is possible to further suppress transmission after vaccination to push the R below 1 which is currently not achievable due to less than desired efficiency of vaccines, most people after living two years of their life with their restrictions have no desire to continue following those restrictions, hence making it difficult to argumentating the vaccine's effect to push the R below 1, not to mention with the current high number of cases around the world, even if you have R less than one, it's still a very long.way until it can reach zero, unless you either.oush the R significantly below 1 to.speed up the process, which mean hard lockdown for everyone and no one can go out, no shopping center or department store keeping open, and essentially no one in the world want that now with their hospitalization rate and death rate reduced by much thanks to the vaccines.