lightsaber wrote:

3rd dose of AZ boosts immunity:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Politics put AZ in the cross hairs, I'm not going to discuss that or production misses (we need more of everything). But the fact a 3rd dose helps is great news. Now for more volume.

Lightsaber

A third dose of something that isn’t there is the same as asking for more lifeboats when Titanic sunk…..

marcelh wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

3rd dose of AZ boosts immunity:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Politics put AZ in the cross hairs, I'm not going to discuss that or production misses (we need more of everything). But the fact a 3rd dose helps is great news. Now for more volume.

Lightsaber

A third dose of something that isn’t there is the same as asking for more lifeboats when Titanic sunk…..

Oxford gave away production information. Going from memory, AZ is made in the UK, USA, EU, Brazil, Mexico? (I'm not sure), India, South Korea, and Japan

An additional dose of something in production is better than waiting for mRNA. I cannot find how many doses are made per month.

lightsaber wrote:

marcelh wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

3rd dose of AZ boosts immunity:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Politics put AZ in the cross hairs, I'm not going to discuss that or production misses (we need more of everything). But the fact a 3rd dose helps is great news. Now for more volume.

Lightsaber

A third dose of something that isn’t there is the same as asking for more lifeboats when Titanic sunk…..

Oxford gave away production information. Going from memory, AZ is made in the UK, USA, EU, Brazil, Mexico? (I'm not sure), India, South Korea, and Japan

An additional dose of something in production is better than waiting for mRNA. I cannot find how many doses are made per month.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/technologies/pushing-boundaries-to-deliver-covid-19-vaccine-accross-the-globe.html
Up to 3 billion doses in 15 countries by the end of 2021. It will be nice to see AZ is able to make it happen, but I believe it when I see it.

According to https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker-mobile.html#distribution-tab, with only 3 days left AZ is still about 30 million doses short of the 100 million target to deliver to the EU by the end of Q2…

marcelh wrote:

https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/technologies/pushing-boundaries-to-deliver-covid-19-vaccine-accross-the-globe.html
Up to 3 billion doses in 15 countries by the end of 2021. It will be nice to see AZ is able to make it happen, but I believe it when I see it.

The latest Airfinity projection has them at 1.96bn. Not ideal, but a hell of a lot better than Curevac or Sanofi.
https://www.airfinity.com/insights/how- ... -this-year

marcelh wrote:

According to https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker-mobile.html#distribution-tab, with only 3 days left AZ is still about 30 million doses short of the 100 million target to deliver to the EU by the end of Q2…

Really? You've barely mentioned it.

BaconButty wrote:

marcelh wrote:

https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/technologies/pushing-boundaries-to-deliver-covid-19-vaccine-accross-the-globe.html
Up to 3 billion doses in 15 countries by the end of 2021. It will be nice to see AZ is able to make it happen, but I believe it when I see it.

The latest Airfinity projection has them at 1.96bn. Not ideal, but a hell of a lot better than Curevac or Sanofi.
https://www.airfinity.com/insights/how- ... -this-year

So? None of those were available by the end of 2020; AZ was…..

marcelh wrote:

According to https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker-mobile.html#distribution-tab, with only 3 days left AZ is still about 30 million doses short of the 100 million target to deliver to the EU by the end of Q2…

Really? You've barely mentioned it.

I just like to keep track of the developement. Just as you did when the court in Belgium came with a verdict….

lightsaber wrote:

3rd dose of AZ boosts immunity:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Politics put AZ in the cross hairs, I'm not going to discuss that or production misses (we need more of everything). But the fact a 3rd dose helps is great news. Now for more volume.

Lightsaber

So politics aside, do we know whether AZ and the UK has provided the USA authorities with all the information they need to determine whether to approve AZ in the USA?
When the initial trials were suspended due to a test subject getting sick, the USA did not restart the trial due to a "lack of details around the patient", that was months ago, the UK restarted their trials and we basically have heard not much of anything from the USA other than it is still not approved.
Reason why I think this is now getting more important is because there are rumors of the USA not allowing persons vaccinated with AZ.
Daily Mail but.....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ummer.html

If there is need for booster shots, there has to be a better way to administer these vaccines. Needles are not the best option.

World would dispose 15 Billion syringes and needles just for first two doses. I would guess even nasal spray would create comparable amount of plastic waste.

Syringe and the associated share of the vial, maybe equal to one water bottle, probably less.

par13del wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

3rd dose of AZ boosts immunity:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Politics put AZ in the cross hairs, I'm not going to discuss that or production misses (we need more of everything). But the fact a 3rd dose helps is great news. Now for more volume.

Lightsaber

So politics aside, do we know whether AZ and the UK has provided the USA authorities with all the information they need to determine whether to approve AZ in the USA?
When the initial trials were suspended due to a test subject getting sick, the USA did not restart the trial due to a "lack of details around the patient", that was months ago, the UK restarted their trials and we basically have heard not much of anything from the USA other than it is still not approved.
Reason why I think this is now getting more important is because there are rumors of the USA not allowing persons vaccinated with AZ.
Daily Mail but.....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ummer.html

I believe the USA has all the information they require to approve AZ. I have no idea why it isn't approved. If nothing else, approving the vaccine would help distribute it.

I think we should allow people with AZ. Now, we might require dose 3, but so be it.

I proposed a weighting scale for vaccines in the civav thread, all based on effectiveness vs. Delta. I believe a 3rd AZ dose should eventually be required. When is a long discussion...
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1462043


Lightsaber

Late edit, link to 3rd shot booster of AZ:
https://news.yahoo.com/news/third-shot- ... 00336.html

I think wise to propose.

lightsaber wrote:

par13del wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

3rd dose of AZ boosts immunity:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Politics put AZ in the cross hairs, I'm not going to discuss that or production misses (we need more of everything). But the fact a 3rd dose helps is great news. Now for more volume.

Lightsaber

So politics aside, do we know whether AZ and the UK has provided the USA authorities with all the information they need to determine whether to approve AZ in the USA?
When the initial trials were suspended due to a test subject getting sick, the USA did not restart the trial due to a "lack of details around the patient", that was months ago, the UK restarted their trials and we basically have heard not much of anything from the USA other than it is still not approved.
Reason why I think this is now getting more important is because there are rumors of the USA not allowing persons vaccinated with AZ.
Daily Mail but.....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ummer.html

I believe the USA has all the information they require to approve AZ. I have no idea why it isn't approved. If nothing else, approving the vaccine would help distribute it.

I think we should allow people with AZ. Now, we might require dose 3, but so be it.

I proposed a weighting scale for vaccines in the civav thread, all based on effectiveness vs. Delta. I believe a 3rd AZ dose should eventually be required. When is a long discussion...
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1462043


Lightsaber

Late edit, link to 3rd shot booster of AZ:
https://news.yahoo.com/news/third-shot- ... 00336.html

I think wise to propose.

As ever, I will remind people that comparing clinical efficacy trials between vaccines is comparing apples to oranges. Pfizer and Moderna were tested early in the pandemic, only in the US. AZ was tested later, and in Brazil and South Africa. Given these large differences in the parameters of the studies, a one-to-one comparison is not possible. Even real world data being gathered now still cannot truly give an accurate picture. Different countries, different local health measures, different vaccine mixes amongst the population, differently administered vaccination programs, different climates, different social cultures, etc. At best, we can only guess.

Unfortunately, it will come down to politicians. Undoubtedly, many will be ill-informed, and all will be subject to political interests completely removed from science.

aerolimani wrote:

As ever, I will remind people that comparing clinical efficacy trials between vaccines is comparing apples to oranges.

So that's it? We can't ever compare two different treatments or vaccines? All of modern medical science is a lark?

Forgive me if I beg to differ, and I think I'm qualified to do so.

These differences *are* statistically significant. They also may be significant on the level of public health decisions. If a variant has an Rt of 6 and one vaccine reduces transmission by 90% then you get an Rt of 0.6 while the one that reduces it by 60% gives you n Rt of over 2.

Also, let's not pretend that the poorer performance of J&J (or CureVac) was all about variants. The issues are mechanistic. Even in a variant-rich environment, the Novavax candidate came in just a hair under 90%. The issue with the two Western AdV candidates is that they either use a single dose, which doesn't give a robust response, or they use a homologous prime-boost, which weakens the booster dose. The issue with CureVac was their choice of a purine-unmodified nucleic acid payload. They tried to blame variants, but the cause is the mechanism.

At the moment, I think we're stuck using some of these less effective vaccines because they're better than nothing, but if we want long-term control over this virus, then we need to have all of our vaccines with at least 80-85% efficacy against total infection.

I don't believe in being duplicitous in order to convince people to get vaccinated. They deserve to know the truth about how effective their vaccines are against total infection and hospitalization (the good news is that all of them are quite good at preventing severe disease and hospitalization). When we start whistling happy tunes about not being able to compare candidates and all of them being equally good, that's duplicitous. Some actually are better than others and our long-term goal should be to get the highest-efficacy products out around the world.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-j ... -tjhgdcg25
Different levels of governments in Pakistan are making vaccination a condition for people to get driving license, social welfare, cellphone services, and even salary

https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_intern ... 20942.html
Olympic: Because Tokyo Olympic will not require vaccination, about 5 members refuse to take the vaccine.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/delta-varia ... 53569.html

This is very sad:

At least 20 Indonesian doctors who received both doses of Sinovac have died.


We need to continue to fund vaccine effective production/distribution and get out billions of doses. We also need to vaccinate the kids, only by getting over 80% vaccinated do we get to end this.

Lightsaber

Late Edit: We need to get the world's medical staff a mRNA booster vaccine ASAP.

Pediatric vaccination rates need to pickup ASAP. Numbers I have seen are abysmal nationwide.

I hope parents realize from first shot to full immunity is a six week process. I know kids had a late start but it will be too late once kids go into air tight classrooms filled with unmasked kids.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Pediatric vaccination rates need to pickup ASAP. Numbers I have seen are abysmal nationwide.

I hope parents realize from first shot to full immunity is a six week process. I know kids had a late start but it will be too late once kids go into air tight classrooms filled with unmasked kids.

Birds of a feather flock together. My older child and all the playmates are vaccinated.

It is not possible to vaccinate my younger child, yet. No vaccine for the under 12 (except special situation).

We need the full age range of pediatric vaccines.

Lightsaber

As someone who reads and interprets charts for a living, it saddens me that the US' hospitilizations have flat lined:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

The UK is slowly going up, but very slowly.
Israel is up, but by Epsilon

At least deaths are still going down. I'm sad on the rate in Chile:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... med+deaths

Lightsaber

https://www.yahoo.com/news/start-pandem ... 12984.html

An article specifically (mostly) why those 12 and over should get the vaccination to protect the under 12 year old.

A couple of anecdata points from Australia where vaccinations are still low due to supply issues (and risk assessment around AZ), but infections are also so low that even the lay person can see patterns:
- 40 people attended a party two weeks ago in Sydney, including a person infected with the Delta variant of the virus. All unvaccinated attendees contracted the virus, but none of those vaccinated contracted the virus (AZ and Pfizer, not mixed)
- an unvaccinated staff member infected with the Delta variant worked at an aged care facility. Thankfully 96% of residents have been vaccinated - three to date have contracted the virus, but are not showing symptoms.

These small scale examples are showing the benefits of vaccination to this country. Thankfully we don't have the mass infection, hospitalistion and death rates of the northern hemisphere, but this has fed into some vaccine complacency in our community.

Kent350787 wrote:

A couple of anecdata points from Australia where vaccinations are still low due to supply issues (and risk assessment around AZ), but infections are also so low that even the lay person can see patterns:
- 40 people attended a party two weeks ago in Sydney, including a person infected with the Delta variant of the virus. All unvaccinated attendees contracted the virus, but none of those vaccinated contracted the virus (AZ and Pfizer, not mixed)
- an unvaccinated staff member infected with the Delta variant worked at an aged care facility. Thankfully 96% of residents have been vaccinated - three to date have contracted the virus, but are not showing symptoms.

These small scale examples are showing the benefits of vaccination to this country. Thankfully we don't have the mass infection, hospitalistion and death rates of the northern hemisphere, but this has fed into some vaccine complacency in our community.

Please post links.

On the birthday party:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriafo ... day-party/

A Covid-19 superspreader birthday party has been reported by Australian public health authorities where 24 of 30 guests were infected with the highly-transmissible Delta SARS-CoV2 coronavirus variant. Six fully-vaccinated healthcare workers were also in attendance and so far, none of them have tested positive for the virus.

Sorry to nitpick, 100% of unvaccinated, two dozen people, caught Delta. (Slightly less worse than posted quantity.)

Australia is having trouble keeping up with tracing with Delta. I wouldn't panic, but they are now in the race vaccines vs. infections, in my opinion.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-vari ... 1625045400

Lightsaber

Infections are rising rapidly in England at the moment (average daily infections over last 7 days versus the same a week earlier)

25-Jun +42%
26-Jun +51%
27-Jun +52%
28-Jun +61%
29-Jun +58%
30-Jun +58%
01-Jul +62%
02-Jul +61%
03-Jul +58%
04-Jul +50%
05-Jul +54%

It can be expected that in the next 21 days daily infection levels will surpass the highest levels ever reached (in January this year). In 14 days' time all COVID-19 legal restrictions (enforced travel restrictions, social distancing, mask wearing etc) will be dropped.

I think we will break all infection records here. Very fortunately I heard on the radio that while about 10% of infectees in the January peak required hospital treatment, only about 1% do now as we climb a potentially still higher peak.

For reference, England has given a first dose to 68% of the population and a second dose to 50% of the population. Additionally about 7% of the population has been infected since the virus arrived, so 70%+ of the population should have some protective antibodies. Just goes to show that partial vaccination won't necessarily stop a very infectious virus spreading like wildfire!

England's vaccination rate continues dropping. It has now fallen from a total of 3.40 million in the last 7 days of May to a total of 1.67 million in the last 7 days including today.

Delta has arrived and ousted Alpha here. Infection rates are rising fast. Infection-reducing regulations are about to lapse. The vaccination rate is half what it was.

That combination is going to result in problems. I think.

1% instead of 10% must be because the most fragile people are mostly vaccinated, but I still find it surprisingly low.

art wrote:

Infections are rising rapidly in England at the moment (average daily infections over last 7 days versus the same a week earlier)
It can be expected that in the next 21 days daily infection levels will surpass the highest levels ever reached (in January this year). In 14 days' time all COVID-19 legal restrictions (enforced travel restrictions, social distancing, mask wearing etc) will be dropped.

I think we will break all infection records here. Very fortunately I heard on the radio that while about 10% of infectees in the January peak required hospital treatment, only about 1% do now as we climb a potentially still higher peak.

For reference, England has given a first dose to 68% of the population and a second dose to 50% of the population. Additionally about 7% of the population has been infected since the virus arrived, so 70%+ of the population should have some protective antibodies. Just goes to show that partial vaccination won't necessarily stop a very infectious virus spreading like wildfire!

England's vaccination rate continues dropping. It has now fallen from a total of 3.40 million in the last 7 days of May to a total of 1.67 million in the last 7 days including today.

Delta has arrived and ousted Alpha here. Infection rates are rising fast. Infection-reducing regulations are about to lapse. The vaccination rate is half what it was.

That combination is going to result in problems. I think.

I am wondering how far it can rise. The current wave will in effect end in herd immunity, in the not-so-far future that 85% will have antibodies (either by vaccination or infection). Even if infected people are getting sick they will get less sick and most probably be less transmissible, this will, in turn, lower the R. I think the current vac + infec rate is already close to this number (Rdelta = 5-8 current English R = ~1.5) so in essence I would expect after this sharp increase also a shape decrease as the pool of people will get empty soon.

lightsaber wrote:

Sorry to nitpick, 100% of unvaccinated, two dozen people, caught Delta. (Slightly less worse than posted quantity.)

Australia is having trouble keeping up with tracing with Delta. I wouldn't panic, but they are now in the race vaccines vs. infections, in my opinion.
Lightsaber

NSW Health reported on Sunday that there were 43 cases linked to that party - there has been no change in terms of the infections and vaccination status https://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/14 ... 93831?s=20

On the patients in the aged care facility, 5 have now tested piositive and been hospitalised. I've linked the latest reporting, although it does not repeat the advice that the initial three were not showing symptoms https://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/14 ... 34340?s=20

Australia's vaccination issue is lack of supply. Due to our extremely low infection rates, AZ is only recommended for people 60+yo (balancing Covid risk and TTS risk) - but is the only locally produced vaccine and is reasonably readily available. There was some change last week that younger people could access AZ if they accepted the identified risk. Pfizer is all imported and 100% of availble stock in the country is being utilised.

The lack of supply means we don't have strong vaccine positive messaging or the wide-scale vaccine programs of the Northern Hemisphere. The limited supply is being allocated (generally) on a risk basis. Until we have bulk Pfizer stock and Governments are prepared to run hard on maessaging and access we're sitting ducks.

(full disclosure: my 88yo mother is scheduled for her second AZ shot tomorrow, my wife for her second Pfizer shot next week, and I'm scheduled for my second AZ in a month's time. Australia is using 12 week interval on AZ)

Kent350787 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Sorry to nitpick, 100% of unvaccinated, two dozen people, caught Delta. (Slightly less worse than posted quantity.)

Australia is having trouble keeping up with tracing with Delta. I wouldn't panic, but they are now in the race vaccines vs. infections, in my opinion.
Lightsaber

NSW Health reported on Sunday that there were 43 cases linked to that party - there has been no change in terms of the infections and vaccination status https://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/14 ... 93831?s=20

On the patients in the aged care facility, 5 have now tested piositive and been hospitalised. I've linked the latest reporting, although it does not repeat the advice that the initial three were not showing symptoms https://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/14 ... 34340?s=20

Australia's vaccination issue is lack of supply. Due to our extremely low infection rates, AZ is only recommended for people 60+yo (balancing Covid risk and TTS risk) - but is the only locally produced vaccine and is reasonably readily available. There was some change last week that younger people could access AZ if they accepted the identified risk. Pfizer is all imported and 100% of availble stock in the country is being utilised.

The lack of supply means we don't have strong vaccine positive messaging or the wide-scale vaccine programs of the Northern Hemisphere. The limited supply is being allocated (generally) on a risk basis. Until we have bulk Pfizer stock and Governments are prepared to run hard on maessaging and access we're sitting ducks.

(full disclosure: my 88yo mother is scheduled for her second AZ shot tomorrow, my wife for her second Pfizer shot next week, and I'm scheduled for my second AZ in a month's time. Australia is using 12 week interval on AZ)

Thank you for the update, I avoid twitter as it is generally just insanity today, but that is just my opinion. There is some good information there, but not as much as there was for various reasons.

I recall how frustrating it was to get vaccinated when supply was constrained here, so good luck getting the jabs. I feel for those much lower in the priority list.

Here my frustration is that there is no vaccine for my younger child. We need to protect everyone. That means greater quantity.
I think the risk for AZ is a bit over-done. I think younger should be allowed to accept AZ, the risk group was small.

Lightsaber

art wrote:

Infections are rising rapidly in England at the moment (average daily infections over last 7 days versus the same a week earlier)

25-Jun +42%
26-Jun +51%
27-Jun +52%
28-Jun +61%
29-Jun +58%
30-Jun +58%
01-Jul +62%
02-Jul +61%
03-Jul +58%
04-Jul +50%
05-Jul +54%

It can be expected that in the next 21 days daily infection levels will surpass the highest levels ever reached (in January this year). In 14 days' time all COVID-19 legal restrictions (enforced travel restrictions, social distancing, mask wearing etc) will be dropped.

I think we will break all infection records here. Very fortunately I heard on the radio that while about 10% of infectees in the January peak required hospital treatment, only about 1% do now as we climb a potentially still higher peak.

For reference, England has given a first dose to 68% of the population and a second dose to 50% of the population. Additionally about 7% of the population has been infected since the virus arrived, so 70%+ of the population should have some protective antibodies. Just goes to show that partial vaccination won't necessarily stop a very infectious virus spreading like wildfire!

England's vaccination rate continues dropping. It has now fallen from a total of 3.40 million in the last 7 days of May to a total of 1.67 million in the last 7 days including today.

Delta has arrived and ousted Alpha here. Infection rates are rising fast. Infection-reducing regulations are about to lapse. The vaccination rate is half what it was.

That combination is going to result in problems. I think.

The major selling point of lockdowns and isolation from each other was to ensure that health facilities and services were not overwhelmed while a vaccine, cure or treatment was developed. Vaccines came out first, now that they are being deployed, should we still be looking at infections first or hospital admissions first? If the infectious rate goes thru the roof and the primary symptoms of those vaccinated is similar to a common cold or the flu how much of an alarm bell should be raised? If we only look at the infectious rate ignoring hospital admissions, is there any sane person who would want freedom day on July 19? On the flip side, wonder why such a huge number of folks still want freedom day with no additional delay, is it that they do not believe the numbers of they have just gone fatalistic on the virus?

UK Minister of Health has mentioned infection rates rising to 100,000 a day. England 7 day average was <3K every single day Apr 8 - May 29.

With nearly all people likely to become seriously ill already vaccinated, 100,000 a day sounds a lot less disturbing than 10,000 did pre-vaccination. Daily death rates of people infected have fallen from over 1,000 for many days in January to around 10-30 now.

While reading the plethora of minute statistics from just about every angle and from all corners of the world, above, it hit me again.

Why are we here, at this point?

Because it was an illness that had a high enough mortality rate to cower the world into a shell. Right?

Had this been a virus that killed 1 person in 10 million instead of 1 every 100, World history would be looking quite different right now.

My point?

Has there been an actual study showing the mortality rate of COVID for fully vaccinated people? That's the one and only statistic that matters to return to normalcy.

So far, haven't heard it, read it or seen it. Anyone?

It matters if everyone is vaccinated. If everyone isn't vaccinated, what matters is the impact on the health system.

art : Well BoJo said we should get used to more death so unfortunately it seems he expects things to get worse on that front.

What should matter is hospital and intensive care capacity.

Less than 1% of those infected, hospitalized, and died in some studies in the US are among the fully vaccinated. It probably is safe to assume that similar figures exist for the hospitalized.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5 ... e-were-not

Another odd statistic for which I cannot find any data. There is a difference when hovering close to death, getting infected and dying. In that case the person is losing at most a few months of life. As an old lady I knew would say, "it's a blessing".

Aesma wrote:

It matters if everyone is vaccinated. If everyone isn't vaccinated, what matters is the impact on the health system.

art : Well BoJo said we should get used to more death so unfortunately it seems he expects things to get worse on that front.

What should matter is hospital and intensive care capacity.

The problem is capacity at hospitals isn't static. Every doctor I know is reporting a nurse shortage. They lost vacation last year and are taking it this year as they are burnt out. If to plan a vacation requires resigning, they are past caring. My relative's hospital in Colorado is constantly having to close rooms to free up nurses for vacations. They had 61 coronavirus patients before (peak 2021), now they can handle 40 maximum. Soon they will downsize to 32, one ward, as they are struggling to staff more.

Unvacvinated nurses refuse to work Coronavirus and there is no more assigning them.

Vaccinated nurses want a break. The number of pre-printed and signed resignation letters ready is scary. Obviously only anecdotal. If more were vaccinated, fewer kids would get it.

There is so much fatigue, empathy is gone.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Aesma wrote:

It matters if everyone is vaccinated. If everyone isn't vaccinated, what matters is the impact on the health system.

art : Well BoJo said we should get used to more death so unfortunately it seems he expects things to get worse on that front.

What should matter is hospital and intensive care capacity.

The problem is capacity at hospitals isn't static. Every doctor I know is reporting a nurse shortage. They lost vacation last year and are taking it this year as they are burnt out. If to plan a vacation requires resigning, they are past caring. My relative's hospital in Colorado is constantly having to close rooms to free up nurses for vacations. They had 61 coronavirus patients before (peak 2021), now they can handle 40 maximum. Soon they will downsize to 32, one ward, as they are struggling to staff more.

Unvacvinated nurses refuse to work Coronavirus and there is no more assigning them.

Vaccinated nurses want a break. The number of pre-printed and signed resignation letters ready is scary. Obviously only anecdotal. If more were vaccinated, fewer kids would get it.

There is so much fatigue, empathy is gone.

Lightsaber

Where in Colorado is this? Denver?
One of the drawbacks to the private system (I assume but not 100% sure) is that there is no system to transfer patients to places with more capacity to treat them. I don't know how commonplace this is in the US but in Ontario in April and May we moved patients all over the province to treat them as the number of cases were not evenly distributed throughout the province. Some regions were hotzones and some had no cases.

I would think that in the US each hospital in managed independently so transferring does not ensure that each hospital is in the approved insurance network and bureaucracy takes over and insurance may not be able to pay for hospital x vs hospital y. I could be wrong about this so please correct me.

StarAC17 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Aesma wrote:

It matters if everyone is vaccinated. If everyone isn't vaccinated, what matters is the impact on the health system.

art : Well BoJo said we should get used to more death so unfortunately it seems he expects things to get worse on that front.

What should matter is hospital and intensive care capacity.

The problem is capacity at hospitals isn't static. Every doctor I know is reporting a nurse shortage. They lost vacation last year and are taking it this year as they are burnt out. If to plan a vacation requires resigning, they are past caring. My relative's hospital in Colorado is constantly having to close rooms to free up nurses for vacations. They had 61 coronavirus patients before (peak 2021), now they can handle 40 maximum. Soon they will downsize to 32, one ward, as they are struggling to staff more.

Unvacvinated nurses refuse to work Coronavirus and there is no more assigning them.

Vaccinated nurses want a break. The number of pre-printed and signed resignation letters ready is scary. Obviously only anecdotal. If more were vaccinated, fewer kids would get it.

There is so much fatigue, empathy is gone.

Lightsaber

Where in Colorado is this? Denver?
One of the drawbacks to the private system (I assume but not 100% sure) is that there is no system to transfer patients to places with more capacity to treat them. I don't know how commonplace this is in the US but in Ontario in April and May we moved patients all over the province to treat them as the number of cases were not evenly distributed throughout the province. Some regions were hotzones and some had no cases.

I would think that in the US each hospital in managed independently so transferring does not ensure that each hospital is in the approved insurance network and bureaucracy takes over and insurance may not be able to pay for hospital x vs hospital y. I could be wrong about this so please correct me.

Mesa County. Denver has capacity.

There is most certainly a well established system to transfer patients. Six hospitals feed St. Mary's in Mesa County. St. Mary's has several hospitals in Salt Lake City and Denver for overload. Early on, the Mesa County hospitals also took in patients from the Navajo nation. No patient goes untreated. The Federal government stepped in for Covid19 payments and resources. None of the issues you listed is a problem.

Mesa county early on took advantage of federal funds to expand capacity (e.g., high flow oxygen), so early on they took the surge. No one planned for the duration.

The problem is burnout. Even the managed healthcare countries will have an issue as nurses and doctors are exhausted. They will just ration more care as they retire or just quit.

As my relative notes, nursing salaries will have to go up soon.

So what you described on moving patients happened here in the USA. The Air National Guard was flying them... everywhere to prevent overload of a regional medical system. What that means is everywhere is burn out, tired, and needs a 3+ week vacation.

Because of lack of vaccination and tired staff, they are downsizing. This is before the expected Delta wave too ...

Lightsaber

frmrCapCadet wrote:

Less than 1% of those infected, hospitalized, and died in some studies in the US are among the fully vaccinated. It probably is safe to assume that similar figures exist for the hospitalized.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5 ... e-were-not

Another odd statistic for which I cannot find any data. There is a difference when hovering close to death, getting infected and dying. In that case the person is losing at most a few months of life. As an old lady I knew would say, "it's a blessing".

CNN had a hospital administrator in MO on earlier and he was saying they have to actively do community outreach, educating citizens on the impact to local healthcare facilities, just to TRY to convince people to think about getting vaccinated. Idiocracy in full effect.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d5a45 ... 1d0ce5a779
Israel say, with Delta, symptomatic case prevention rate dropped to 64%
In other word herd immunity never even with 100% vaccinated rate
And they say there is a slight drop in protection against severe cases
But dropping from 98.2% to 93% mean vaccinated individual severe case protection failure rate increased from 1.8% to 7%, an almost four-fold increase
It also indicate vaccinated individuals cannot just watch and ignore the situation

It is probably time for unvaccinated people to be asked/told they are unwelcome. Those medically advised to not vaccinate can be accommodated, and lets get the next younger group vaccinated. Trump rightfully can be proud of his administrations enabling vaccine development to happen and get funded so quickly. He needs to go on a tour persuading his admirers to get vaccinated. That would help de-politicalize this whole issue.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

It is probably time for unvaccinated people to be asked/told they are unwelcome. Those medically advised to not vaccinate can be accommodated, and lets get the next younger group vaccinated. Trump rightfully can be proud of his administrations enabling vaccine development to happen and get funded so quickly. He needs to go on a tour persuading his admirers to get vaccinated. That would help de-politicalize this whole issue.

Trump announced he was vaccinated.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trumps ... in-january

Honestly, the press is so hostile to him, he can do no right, so best for him to lie low.

What is going unsaid is the high concentration in urban centers of unvaccinated.
https://dig.abclocal.go.com/kabc/ca-vac ... p_map.html

The politicizing of this health campaign is a negative for everyone. Honestly, Every Red voter I know is vaccinated and the unvaccinated are Blue voters, so something isn't lining up with the press. More scary, I know many households where everyone is unvaccinated. That means when (not if) Delta enters the house, everyone gets it and spreads it and they live in those less vaccinated areas. With Ro of 5+, Delta will almost ignore the vaccinated and rip through unvaccinated areas.

The doctors I know are exiting the anger stage of why people are unvaccinated. I think many of the efforts to vaccinate are bargaining. I hear reports that the few vaccinated in the hospital are getting more attention, not by policy, the unvaccinated are... just getting what they asked for So far every vaccinated in the hospital is someone who caught it from an unvaccinated house mate (high exposure guaranteed) that I have anecdotally heard about. So far, only cancer and kidney patients are not recovering quickly (they are on meds dooming them).

The media playing up one group as bad not vaccinating and one as victims sends a message that hardened the stance of both groups. At work they send an ambulance with vaccine once a month with a team of jabbers. That sort of helps (enough get vaccinated to justify the effort, but not enough to change much).

Best to not mention politics. Best to not mention a politician as that is a turn off to the other side of the isle.

Allow me to vaccinate my younger child.
Encourage boosters, I think they are needed.

lightsaber wrote:

The politicizing of this health campaign is a negative for everyone.

Agreed. People are stupid to accept/reject vaccination based on what 'their politicians' say. What do 'their politicians' know about medecine?

Politics is how large groups of people govern themselves. In a sense everything is political, and we need to honor those who are willing to do the job.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

Politics is how large groups of people govern themselves. In a sense everything is political, and we need to honor those who are willing to do the job.

In a grave health crisis I don't think it is the job of politicians to exhort their followers to do anything except to follow the advice given by those who know about health. Politicians don't know about health and should not meddle in matters in which they are ignorant.

Politicians can take their country into a war but they don't know how best to fight one, do they? How you think a war should be fought does not assume value because you are a politician. Leave what requires expertise to the experts.

If you need a case study of how Delta can ruin everything look no further than the Netherlands. 2 weeks ago dancing and festivals were allowed as long as everybody was vaccinated or tested. The system was leaky from the beginning, there was a disco where 180 of the 800 guests were infected. As result, the numbers rose from 643 to 3688 in just 1 week, 2 months of lockdown undone in just 1 week.

Silverlining is that it is mostly young people and since today more than 100 injections per 100 persons have been made. An increase was expected but this explosion may force new restrictions. If I were a neighboring country I would not accept any incoming Dutch tourists till 1 August. We (NL) are now a case study of how not to do lossen restrictions.

proest wrote:

If you need a case study of how Delta can ruin everything look no further than the Netherlands. 2 weeks ago dancing and festivals were allowed as long as everybody was vaccinated or tested. The system was leaky from the beginning, there was a disco where 180 of the 800 guests were infected. As result, the numbers rose from 643 to 3688 in just 1 week, 2 months of lockdown undone in just 1 week.

Silverlining is that it is mostly young people and since today more than 100 injections per 100 persons have been made. An increase was expected but this explosion may force new restrictions. If I were a neighboring country I would not accept any incoming Dutch tourists till 1 August. We (NL) are now a case study of how not to do lossen restrictions.

That does not bode well for the UK - about 100 injections per 100 persons at the moment and lockdown is due to end in 12 days. And unfortunately our daily vaccination rate has dropped to half what it was 6 weeks ago.

art wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

The politicizing of this health campaign is a negative for everyone.

Agreed. People are stupid to accept/reject vaccination based on what 'their politicians' say. What do 'their politicians' know about medecine?

How did all of those hydrochloroquine, UV light, and disinfectant treatments work out?

Aesma wrote:

It matters if everyone is vaccinated. If everyone isn't vaccinated, what matters is the impact on the health system.

art : Well BoJo said we should get used to more death so unfortunately it seems he expects things to get worse on that front.

What should matter is hospital and intensive care capacity.

And that is not looking good: normal care is being postponed again.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/b ... ssion=true

And this is almost 2 weeks before opening up. It is clear 50% vaccinated is not enough to stop delta.

Hospital admissions are not the only public health problem. Long covid could burden the health system for a long time. UK is already planning to open new facilities to treat long covid for children
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-nhs ... n-12332812

data from the Office for National Statistics suggests that 7.4% of children aged between two and 11 and 8.2% of those aged 12 to 16 report continued symptoms

There is no vaccine for that younger age group yet, and low availability for the older.

On the technology front, thanks to the rapid advances in mRNA vaccines for COVID, Moderna has announced they are starting trials of an mRNA flu shot:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07 ... has-begun/

Moderna has given out the first doses of an mRNA-based influenza vaccine to participants in an early-phase clinical trial, the company announced Wednesday.

Moderna ultimately plans to test the vaccine on about 180 people in the Phase 1/2 randomized, stratified, observer-blind trial. The trial will look at safety, different doses, and immune responses.

The vaccine, called mRNA-1010, is designed to target four lineages of influenza viruses that circulate seasonally each year, just like the current quadrivalent flu vaccines on the market. The four virus lineages are those identified by the World Health Organization as the ones to target for disease prevention each year—seasonal influenza type A lineages H1N1 and H3N2 as well as influenza type B lineages Yamagata and Victoria. If mRNA-1010 is shown to be effective against the yearly plague in later-stage trials, Moderna aims to eventually bundle it with three other mRNA-based vaccines to create a yearly, one-stop shot.

In addition to influenza, this envisioned combination shot would target two other common, respiratory viruses that circulate alongside influenza—respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human metapneumovirus (hMPV)—as well as the COVID-19 coronavirus, SARS-COV-2, which some experts have speculated could become seasonal. Currently, there are no licensed vaccines against either RSV or hMPV. And it's unclear if SARS-CoV-2 will become seasonal and/or if annual booster vaccines will be necessary.

With how effective mRNA vaccines are, and the fact that they aren't reliant on chicken eggs for production, it should mean that the new mRNA flu vaccines should be much more effective and available, and more easily tweaked to better match the viruses that cause the flu annually.

Dupli wrote:

Aesma wrote:

It matters if everyone is vaccinated. If everyone isn't vaccinated, what matters is the impact on the health system.

art : Well BoJo said we should get used to more death so unfortunately it seems he expects things to get worse on that front.

What should matter is hospital and intensive care capacity.

And that is not looking good: normal care is being postponed again.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/b ... ssion=true

And this is almost 2 weeks before opening up. It is clear 50% vaccinated is not enough to stop delta.

Hospital admissions are not the only public health problem. Long covid could burden the health system for a long time. UK is already planning to open new facilities to treat long covid for children
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-nhs ... n-12332812

data from the Office for National Statistics suggests that 7.4% of children aged between two and 11 and 8.2% of those aged 12 to 16 report continued symptoms

There is no vaccine for that younger age group yet, and low availability for the older.

The fact such a highly vaccinated country has such climbing cases is of concern. We need vaccines for kids (younger children). We as in the world (not just USA, UK, and EU). Interesting times ahead... The UK opening cannot go well.

To everyone:
Does anyone have any links on studies on transmission among kids? It seems like the world is being complacent on how prior Covid19 didn't really get to kids except through parents (during lockdown mind you, so less exposure).

Late edit:
I use the two dose to compare. However, I do question the effectiveness of the attenuated virus vaccines (they do not seem to slow the spread as well as AdrenoVirus or mRNA).
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... by+dose%29

At 60% fully vaccinated, Israel seems to benefit from a much slower climb than the UK's 50%.
The USA's 47% isn't enough. In particular, it will get into the dense urban centers which have large pockets of unvaccinated. Most of the EU, Delta should spread faster than the UK. Interesting times...

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... LD~POL~GRC

lightsaber wrote:

...
At 60% fully vaccinated, Israel seems to benefit from a much slower climb than the UK's 50%.
The USA's 47% isn't enough. In particular, it will get into the dense urban centers which have large pockets of unvaccinated. Most of the EU, Delta should spread faster than the UK. Interesting times...

Israel re-instated mask mandate as soon as data showed breakthroughs.

UK's plan appears to be mass infection to achieve herd immunity. Close to 675,000 kids missed school of sickness induced at schools through natural infection. WHO calling UK's plan epidemiological stupidity.

We still have time to act, but CDC is in no mood. Though not publicly discussed our plan also appears to be herd immunity thru mass infection.

Our pediatric 12+ vaccination rates are very low for fall school opening without masks. We are still chasing anti-vaxxers, I haven't seen any PSAs asking kids to get vaccinated.

dtw2hyd wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

...
At 60% fully vaccinated, Israel seems to benefit from a much slower climb than the UK's 50%.
The USA's 47% isn't enough. In particular, it will get into the dense urban centers which have large pockets of unvaccinated. Most of the EU, Delta should spread faster than the UK. Interesting times...

Israel re-instated mask mandate as soon as data showed breakthroughs.

UK's plan appears to be mass infection to achieve herd immunity. Close to 675,000 kids missed school of sickness induced at schools through natural infection. WHO calling UK's plan epidemiological stupidity.

We still have time to act, but CDC is in no mood. Though not publicly discussed our plan also appears to be herd immunity thru mass infection.

Our pediatric 12+ vaccination rates are very low for fall school opening without masks. We are still chasing anti-vaxxers, I haven't seen any PSAs asking kids to get vaccinated.

Vaccines are being thrown away, lotteries put in place, media blitz ads all over TV by any number of celebrities and local officials, job requirements being updated, etc etc etc and with all that the vaccine hesitancy remains, so what else do the scientific experts want governments to do, vaccinate the population by force? It may be epidemiological stupidity to the experts, unfortunately for them they have not convinced enough of the population that they should blindly follow them wherever they lead or say to go. It's funny how only the regular man in the street has a problem with indefinate lock downs, working from home and no socializing.

par13del wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

...
At 60% fully vaccinated, Israel seems to benefit from a much slower climb than the UK's 50%.
The USA's 47% isn't enough. In particular, it will get into the dense urban centers which have large pockets of unvaccinated. Most of the EU, Delta should spread faster than the UK. Interesting times...

Israel re-instated mask mandate as soon as data showed breakthroughs.

UK's plan appears to be mass infection to achieve herd immunity. Close to 675,000 kids missed school of sickness induced at schools through natural infection. WHO calling UK's plan epidemiological stupidity.

We still have time to act, but CDC is in no mood. Though not publicly discussed our plan also appears to be herd immunity thru mass infection.

Our pediatric 12+ vaccination rates are very low for fall school opening without masks. We are still chasing anti-vaxxers, I haven't seen any PSAs asking kids to get vaccinated.

Vaccines are being thrown away, lotteries put in place, media blitz ads all over TV by any number of celebrities and local officials, job requirements being updated, etc etc etc and with all that the vaccine hesitancy remains, so what else do the scientific experts want governments to do, vaccinate the population by force? It may be epidemiological stupidity to the experts, unfortunately for them they have not convinced enough of the population that they should blindly follow them wherever they lead or say to go. It's funny how only the regular man in the street has a problem with indefinate lock downs, working from home and no socializing.

Governments shouldn't punish children ie., no vaccines + no masks + no good ventilation for the mistakes of anti-vaxx adults. Goes for both UK(no pediatric vaccinations) and USA(12+ vaccination rates are low). Selectively punish adults if that's what it takes.

@Lightsaber:
2 month ago I posted this after looking at the data from the Swiss health agency (https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/overview)

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

I looked at the numbers of weekly infections, hospitalisation, and death here in Switzerland.

For vaccination Switzerland is at the lower end of the EU Pack (26.3 jabs in 100 habitants; vaccine used Pfizer and Moderna). But among those over 80 64% are fully vaccinated and additional 10% had their first jab. For those between 70 and 79 the numbers are 41% and 28 % respectively.

In all, new infections, hospitalisation, and death, one can see the impact of vaccination of those over 70.

Comparing the weekly number of new infections with the maximum number I get for last week:

• over 80: 7% (compared to the max number of people over 80 that were infected in one week)
• between 70 and 79: 13%
• between 20 and 69: between 22% and 28%

This trend can bee seen over the last weeks with the numbers coming down for those over 70, and more of less stable for those between 20 and 69. And while those numbers look encouraging, the picture looks much worse for those under 20.

Last week children under 10 had the highest number of positive test we had yet in Switzerland (100%) and for those between 10 and 20 I get 43% last week.
And here too we have a trend with the number raising over the last weeks.

While the number of infection among kids under 10 is still lower than in the other age groups, they made up 5% of all infection last week compared to 1.9% over the entire pandemic.

One reason could simply be that those two age groups were much less tested earlier hence the trend wouldn't be worrying...but that would be the reassuring explanation.

Are similar trends noticeable in other countries? Have any of you read something about such trends and could share some knowledge?

If there is really an increase in infection among those under 20, wouldn't it make sense to prioritise vaccination of people with kids at home over people like myself without kids?

One could already see that covid was on the rise among kids, and that was with the alpha variant dominant. Delta makes it worse...

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas