NIKV69 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

CDC has an updated guidance for immunocompromised individuals. IMHO this recommendation is too late. In a country full of people against masks, asking some to go back to wearing masks after boldly disowning, is like putting genie back in the bottle.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday warned people who are immunocompromised that the Covid-19 vaccine may not have been effective for them and encouraged them to take precautions as if they were not vaccinated.

"People who are immunocompromised should be counseled about the potential for reduced immune responses to COVID-19 vaccines and to follow current prevention measures (including wearing a mask, staying 6 feet apart from others staying they don't live with, and avoiding crowds and poorly ventilated indoor spaces) to protect themselves against COVID-19 until advised otherwise by their healthcare provider,"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/16/health/c ... index.html

We pulled the mask rule too early, I am wearing mine indoor public places until this goes in the other direction.

Agreed. The flip flipping locally (slang for changing a decision back and forth) is just pissing people off. I wear a mask indoors, except at my desk (enough social distancing, IMHO).

Lightsaber

This idea of getting people vaccinated 3 times to give better immunity: I hear that the fewer people who catch the virus, the smaller the opportunity for mutation of the virus. I presume that a third jab lowers the chance of contracting the virus, so the chance of mutation is reduced. A mutation against which current vaccines offered little protection would be a disaster, wouldn't it?

However... is this 3rd jab a good idea when we look at the bigger picture? Most people in the world have not been vaccinated at all. Therein lies the potential for mass transmission and mutation. I imagine it would be better for all if the countries with access to vaccine shipped stocks to the unvaccinated world rather than giving a third dose to people.

Agree? Disagree?

Another experiment here in the England: from tomorrow all legal restrctions on people except 1 are lifted - you must legally isolate if notified on your phone that you have been in the same place as an infected person. Not sure if that applies to people who have been fully vaccinated.

What people are starting to do is to remove the app from their phones so they cannot be notified by our track and trace system. That frees them to do whatever they like again. I'm not sure if businesses will still need to demand social distancing and masks indoors.

Rolling daily infection averages:

Jan 9 - 59.6K
June 1 - 3.3K.
July 18 - 44.7K

I wonder how high we will go this time. More important, I wonder how many people will get seriously ill. Not many is my guess due to a high level of vaccination in age groups down to 30 years old.

Other countries might find it worth watching to see what actually happens here with Delta representing nearly all infections.

art wrote:

This idea of getting people vaccinated 3 times to give better immunity: I hear that the fewer people who catch the virus, the smaller the opportunity for mutation of the virus. I presume that a third jab lowers the chance of contracting the virus, so the chance of mutation is reduced. A mutation against which current vaccines offered little protection would be a disaster, wouldn't it?

However... is this 3rd jab a good idea when we look at the bigger picture? Most people in the world have not been vaccinated at all. Therein lies the potential for mass transmission and mutation. I imagine it would be better for all if the countries with access to vaccine shipped stocks to the unvaccinated world rather than giving a third dose to people.

Agree? Disagree?

3rd shot locally protects the family.

2 jabs globally won't happen for a long time.

How long will 3rd jab locally delay meaningful global vaccination? Two weeks by my math at the estimated production rates. Maybe 60 days, tops.

The quantity of people willing to get triple jabbed isn't enough to meaningfully impact global supply until we're talking about triple jabbing everyone.

Should a society forgo protection of itself when there is no hope of vaccinating enough people to stop the next waves?

That is why my previous post highlighted how many we had vaccinated (just over 3.5 billion doses).

As an aviation enthusiast, I want that third jab to reopen DXB, LHR, ATL, DEN, ICN, LAX, and all the global hubs at full capacity. It is my opinion that 2 jabs are insufficient in protection.

We will do both. The policy decisions must be swayed by economics.

We're talking 150 million doses to 500 million.

If someone is where vaccines are insufficient, of course they want to have the doses. But this is like before we found out Delta and Lambda hurt kids. Before we argued the rest of the world deserved doses before children, now we find we are behind being ready to innoculate younger kids.

I interact with vulnerable people. I would like to protect them. Israel research, posted above, not 2-jabs is 64% effective. My government had better come up with a better solution.

Should other governments get vaccine, syringe, and associated production going? Yes.

I think you are asking the wrong question. This isn't a zero sum game; your question is a zero sum question. e.g., my prior references have India making over 200 million doses per month before NovaVax and Moderna production.

South Africa is now producing J&J:
https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/su ... NewsSearch

We should be commiting to more production globally. I posted up thread how Thailand gets to use 40% of the vaccine it produces. I also before posted links on Japan and South Korea producing.

Sputnik V will be made in:
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/ar ... ontext=amp

Russia
India (SII)
South Korea
Brazil
China
Turkey
Belarus
Kazakhstan

All the above is ramping up production.

Of course people are going to look after their own interests first. The obvious answer is we should vaccinate everyone. There is a benefit to 3rd jabs and the impact on the global vaccination effort will be minor. So now it is a question on when each country should 3rd or even 4th jab?

So the question is, is it politically viable to deny one's own citizens the protection of a 3rd jab when:
1. We cannot get a jab to everyone until mid 2022 at the earliest
2 3rd jabs won't be taken up by many, so little impact to the global timeline.
3. Either children matter or they don't. Either the already vaccinated do enough to protect their young, or the countries enabling the vaccines need to vaccinate children.

I'm sorry, but another 150 million doses makes no difference (my estimate on how many wil be willing to triple dose). For opening up countries to travel who did attenuated virus vaccines, the 3rd jab is a night and day benefit. For high trade cities (London, New York), I think this is the only way to reopen business with confidence.

We're debating 2 weeks to 60 days when younger, in general healthy people get vaccinated.

We should debate how to open six more vaccine factories. AZ, Sputnik V, Johnson & Johnson, and Moderna have proven very willing to partner. So much so, even with boosters, the world will have a massive surplus of vaccines end of 2022.

Lightsaber

Late add: Chile is officially recommended a 3rd jav:
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/chilean- ... 39553.html

Oh ... Attenuated virus vaccines seem to need a booster at six months per that study, as I read it.

Lightsaber

c933103 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

CDC has an updated guidance for immunocompromised individuals. IMHO this recommendation is too late. In a country full of people against masks, asking some to go back to wearing masks after boldly disowning, is like putting genie back in the bottle.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday warned people who are immunocompromised that the Covid-19 vaccine may not have been effective for them and encouraged them to take precautions as if they were not vaccinated.

"People who are immunocompromised should be counseled about the potential for reduced immune responses to COVID-19 vaccines and to follow current prevention measures (including wearing a mask, staying 6 feet apart from others staying they don't live with, and avoiding crowds and poorly ventilated indoor spaces) to protect themselves against COVID-19 until advised otherwise by their healthcare provider,"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/16/health/c ... index.html

In the pandemic, mask especially as cloth masks and such, are main being used for their source reduction effect, as aerosolized virus particles are too fine for such kind of masks to filter.
If the CDC is introducing such guidance, including the mask rule, to immunocompromised people with protection effect in mind, then it must explain clearly differences in different type of masks and which one they should pick.

15 months into pandemic we still cannot address supply issues of quality (like 3M) N95 masks. Adult sizes are available on and off, but hard to find small size 3M N95 for kids. We can ramp up a complicated mRNA vaccine production, but cannot ramp up 65 cent commodity production.

dtw2hyd wrote:

c933103 wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

CDC has an updated guidance for immunocompromised individuals. IMHO this recommendation is too late. In a country full of people against masks, asking some to go back to wearing masks after boldly disowning, is like putting genie back in the bottle.


https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/16/health/c ... index.html

In the pandemic, mask especially as cloth masks and such, are main being used for their source reduction effect, as aerosolized virus particles are too fine for such kind of masks to filter.
If the CDC is introducing such guidance, including the mask rule, to immunocompromised people with protection effect in mind, then it must explain clearly differences in different type of masks and which one they should pick.

15 months into pandemic we still cannot address supply issues of quality (like 3M) N95 masks. Adult sizes are available on and off, but hard to find small size 3M N95 for kids. We can ramp up a complicated mRNA vaccine production, but cannot ramp up 65 cent commodity production.

You just beat me to a comment similar to this. Why are we still wearing cloth masks more than a year into a pandemic?
I was lucky - I had read a book on viruses about 20 years ago, and based upon that book, was convinced that sooner or later we would have another flu pandemic. I went to the Home Depot and bought two boxes of 20 N95 particle masks. Put them in a cabinet in the garage where they sat for 15 or 20 years, unopened. Well I am astonished that I actually ended up needing them, and even more astonished that it's not for a flu pandemic. The elastic straps were brittle and snapped immediately, but the masks themselves are in great shape. They have a tab on each side where you can punch a hole and using strips of T-shirt material, we have made straps that we tie to the crown of our heads, routed both behind the neck, to the mask holes, and then to the crown. We are rotating these masks 1/day with a total of 7 masks in a rotation for a person (my wife and myself). And so we are in good shape. When we go indoors, still (we are vaccinated), we wear our N95s. Not going to mess with cloth except outside if we feel a need.
We've also found at least one online supplier that has supplies of both 3M and Kimberly Clark N95 masks. So we've bought some other varieties. Also our local Costco had actual N95s in stock for a short while. But why cloth, so late after the pandemic started? It's ridiculous. After a year we should be able to manufacture huge quantities of *really* protective masks.

Chemist wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

c933103 wrote:

In the pandemic, mask especially as cloth masks and such, are main being used for their source reduction effect, as aerosolized virus particles are too fine for such kind of masks to filter.
If the CDC is introducing such guidance, including the mask rule, to immunocompromised people with protection effect in mind, then it must explain clearly differences in different type of masks and which one they should pick.

15 months into pandemic we still cannot address supply issues of quality (like 3M) N95 masks. Adult sizes are available on and off, but hard to find small size 3M N95 for kids. We can ramp up a complicated mRNA vaccine production, but cannot ramp up 65 cent commodity production.

You just beat me to a comment similar to this. Why are we still wearing cloth masks more than a year into a pandemic?
I was lucky - I had read a book on viruses about 20 years ago, and based upon that book, was convinced that sooner or later we would have another flu pandemic. I went to the Home Depot and bought two boxes of 20 N95 particle masks. Put them in a cabinet in the garage where they sat for 15 or 20 years, unopened. Well I am astonished that I actually ended up needing them, and even more astonished that it's not for a flu pandemic. The elastic straps were brittle and snapped immediately, but the masks themselves are in great shape. They have a tab on each side where you can punch a hole and using strips of T-shirt material, we have made straps that we tie to the crown of our heads, routed both behind the neck, to the mask holes, and then to the crown. We are rotating these masks 1/day with a total of 7 masks in a rotation for a person (my wife and myself). And so we are in good shape. When we go indoors, still (we are vaccinated), we wear our N95s. Not going to mess with cloth except outside if we feel a need.
We've also found at least one online supplier that has supplies of both 3M and Kimberly Clark N95 masks. So we've bought some other varieties. Also our local Costco had actual N95s in stock for a short while. But why cloth, so late after the pandemic started? It's ridiculous. After a year we should be able to manufacture huge quantities of *really* protective masks.

The functioning of N95 masks rely on electrostaticity. So even if they look fine after 15-20 years of storage, they might not be having all of their efficiency. You should test their electrostaticity before using them (Simple guide available on sites like YouTube)
As for why still cloth masks, I guess it's because of the less of advertisement for the need of higher grade masks and thus manufacturers are less incentivized to produce them.
In Hong Kong where there are almost no industrial capacity inside the city, the general consensus is at least surgucal masks, everyone from political parties to property developers to bus companies rushed to produce surgical masks and now there are an abundant supply of them from local factories. Even KF94, aka N95 grade masks, are also being produced in large quantity and are in abundant supply now, and many shops from toy shops to restaurants to convenient stores to dedicated mask factory outlets to even bus stop vending machines, are now selling all these different kinds of masks with high protection level.
The same situation doesn't happen in the West, most likely because people aren't being told they need anything better than cloth masks, thus few people are buying anything better than cloth masks, and as a result manufacturers are not incentivized to make them.

worldometers predicts about 100 times as many daily infections in UK mid-September as we had in mid-May. Does not seem at all likely to me, albeit who am I to predict the level? Mid-May was around 3K a day, prediction for mid-September is around 300K a day. US infections are projected to rise but at a far reduced level . Why is such an astonishing rise predicted in UK?

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-k ... infections

art wrote:

worldometers predicts about 100 times as many daily infections in UK mid-September as we had in mid-May. Does not seem at all likely to me, albeit who am I to predict the level? Mid-May was around 3K a day, prediction for mid-September is around 300K a day. US infections are projected to rise but at a far reduced level . Why is such an astonishing rise predicted in UK?

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-k ... infections

Not plausible to have 300k day with the current vaccination rate. By mid-September the UK would have (temporary, in my opinion) natural herd immunity. The infections will go up, but the rate of rise will:
1. Force a temporary lockdown if cases do not slow.
2. The combination of vaccines and recovered from Delta will provide a break.

Now obviously a Ro=5 has a pretty high threshold. A disease where kids are now infecting parents (recall earlier, primarily the other way around) has many more to infect.

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2021/07/19/h ... ldren/?amp

UK is now 53% fully vaccinated, another 15% 1st jab. Well before September, those 1st jabbers will have a 2nd jab and more will have a 1st jab. Thanks to selecting Pfizer, I expect the 12+ to be added in weeks. Sticking a third of the kids will protect younger siblings and slow this virus

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... BR~FRA~ESP

The UK ordered 100 million doses of Pfizer. I'm not certain of the timeline for the extra 60 million doses:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56921018

Valneva (booster) has 60 million expected 2nd half of this year for UK with more boosters in 2022:
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-secu ... a-vaccine/

NovaVax is always 2 months away from being certified. Sad how that vaccine is disrupting plans:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... plans.html


What is the UK Moderna vaccination schedule?

Ok, UK vaccination rate needs to improve. That means allowing kids (see doses per day chart):
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

But 300k/day? I'll take the under for a well vaccinated country like the UK.

Lightsaber

c933103 wrote:

Chemist wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

15 months into pandemic we still cannot address supply issues of quality (like 3M) N95 masks. Adult sizes are available on and off, but hard to find small size 3M N95 for kids. We can ramp up a complicated mRNA vaccine production, but cannot ramp up 65 cent commodity production.

You just beat me to a comment similar to this. Why are we still wearing cloth masks more than a year into a pandemic?
I was lucky - I had read a book on viruses about 20 years ago, and based upon that book, was convinced that sooner or later we would have another flu pandemic. I went to the Home Depot and bought two boxes of 20 N95 particle masks. Put them in a cabinet in the garage where they sat for 15 or 20 years, unopened. Well I am astonished that I actually ended up needing them, and even more astonished that it's not for a flu pandemic. The elastic straps were brittle and snapped immediately, but the masks themselves are in great shape. They have a tab on each side where you can punch a hole and using strips of T-shirt material, we have made straps that we tie to the crown of our heads, routed both behind the neck, to the mask holes, and then to the crown. We are rotating these masks 1/day with a total of 7 masks in a rotation for a person (my wife and myself). And so we are in good shape. When we go indoors, still (we are vaccinated), we wear our N95s. Not going to mess with cloth except outside if we feel a need.
We've also found at least one online supplier that has supplies of both 3M and Kimberly Clark N95 masks. So we've bought some other varieties. Also our local Costco had actual N95s in stock for a short while. But why cloth, so late after the pandemic started? It's ridiculous. After a year we should be able to manufacture huge quantities of *really* protective masks.

The functioning of N95 masks rely on electrostaticity. So even if they look fine after 15-20 years of storage, they might not be having all of their efficiency. You should test their electrostaticity before using them (Simple guide available on sites like YouTube)
As for why still cloth masks, I guess it's because of the less of advertisement for the need of higher grade masks and thus manufacturers are less incentivized to produce them.
In Hong Kong where there are almost no industrial capacity inside the city, the general consensus is at least surgucal masks, everyone from political parties to property developers to bus companies rushed to produce surgical masks and now there are an abundant supply of them from local factories. Even KF94, aka N95 grade masks, are also being produced in large quantity and are in abundant supply now, and many shops from toy shops to restaurants to convenient stores to dedicated mask factory outlets to even bus stop vending machines, are now selling all these different kinds of masks with high protection level.
The same situation doesn't happen in the West, most likely because people aren't being told they need anything better than cloth masks, thus few people are buying anything better than cloth masks, and as a result manufacturers are not incentivized to make them.

There are studies that have shown N95s to function better than cloth masks even with loss of electrostatic efficiency:

http://smeng.ucsd.edu/wp-content/upload ... c17333.pdf

"In conclusion, a loss of electrostatic charge does not directly correlate to the decreased performance of either respirator."

Chemist wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Chemist wrote:

You just beat me to a comment similar to this. Why are we still wearing cloth masks more than a year into a pandemic?
I was lucky - I had read a book on viruses about 20 years ago, and based upon that book, was convinced that sooner or later we would have another flu pandemic. I went to the Home Depot and bought two boxes of 20 N95 particle masks. Put them in a cabinet in the garage where they sat for 15 or 20 years, unopened. Well I am astonished that I actually ended up needing them, and even more astonished that it's not for a flu pandemic. The elastic straps were brittle and snapped immediately, but the masks themselves are in great shape. They have a tab on each side where you can punch a hole and using strips of T-shirt material, we have made straps that we tie to the crown of our heads, routed both behind the neck, to the mask holes, and then to the crown. We are rotating these masks 1/day with a total of 7 masks in a rotation for a person (my wife and myself). And so we are in good shape. When we go indoors, still (we are vaccinated), we wear our N95s. Not going to mess with cloth except outside if we feel a need.
We've also found at least one online supplier that has supplies of both 3M and Kimberly Clark N95 masks. So we've bought some other varieties. Also our local Costco had actual N95s in stock for a short while. But why cloth, so late after the pandemic started? It's ridiculous. After a year we should be able to manufacture huge quantities of *really* protective masks.

The functioning of N95 masks rely on electrostaticity. So even if they look fine after 15-20 years of storage, they might not be having all of their efficiency. You should test their electrostaticity before using them (Simple guide available on sites like YouTube)
As for why still cloth masks, I guess it's because of the less of advertisement for the need of higher grade masks and thus manufacturers are less incentivized to produce them.
In Hong Kong where there are almost no industrial capacity inside the city, the general consensus is at least surgucal masks, everyone from political parties to property developers to bus companies rushed to produce surgical masks and now there are an abundant supply of them from local factories. Even KF94, aka N95 grade masks, are also being produced in large quantity and are in abundant supply now, and many shops from toy shops to restaurants to convenient stores to dedicated mask factory outlets to even bus stop vending machines, are now selling all these different kinds of masks with high protection level.
The same situation doesn't happen in the West, most likely because people aren't being told they need anything better than cloth masks, thus few people are buying anything better than cloth masks, and as a result manufacturers are not incentivized to make them.

There are studies that have shown N95s to function better than cloth masks even with loss of electrostatic efficiency:

http://smeng.ucsd.edu/wp-content/upload ... c17333.pdf

"In conclusion, a loss of electrostatic charge does not directly correlate to the decreased performance of either respirator."

Whether expired or not you can feel the tight seal with 3M N95 masks which can be never felt with surgical or KN95.

We have few expired(8 years or so) medical grade 3M N95s (small size), still good.

Medical grade N95s (3M 1860/1860s) have better headbands and liquid protection vs industrial grade N95s(3M 8210/8210s). When using 8210 first time you have to pre-stretch elastic headband as they are shipped in compressed state, if not they break easily.

I believe the UK and USA show the results of too low total population vaccination. I've posted links on kids spreading upthread; until a huge fraction of the population is vaccinated, we'll see trends.

Both the USA and UK see climbing hospitalizations. In my opinion, due to exhausted nurses and a need to treat patients for other stuff, we cannot let hospitalizations get even close to prior peaks. Sadly, climbing again. Why do people not realize the #1 benefit of vaccines are the proven slowing of transmission (I posted numerous links upthread).

Link on climbing hospitalizations:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations

Link on vaccinations. I am of the opinion only fully vaccinated matters with Delta and Lambda, but partially vaccinated has hopes of a better future (people willing to be vaccinated):
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... BR~FRA~ESP

Israel is doing well with heavy testing and only 60.61% fully vaccinated. I think if they get enough kids vaccinated, they'll be safe enough. However, it will probably take a younger child vaccine to fully relax

Only Canada is on track to vaccinate over 70% with vaccines other than attenuated virus (which need a booster or little protection for unvaccinated, like the children).

Interesting times.

Lightsaber

Wow, Detroit is 38% vaccinated.

https://amp.detroitnews.com/amp/7956875002

WoW... Birds of a feather flock together...

Delta (and Lambda) are so transmittable that any clusters of available hosts will be eventually be hard hit in my opinion. People like to talk in easy to identify tribal areas (nation, state/province), but this virus will find its way around.

As long as there is a pocket large enough to sustain the virus, it will remain until we can get all areas.

I personally do not understand the anti-vax mindset. It endangers the whole family. I couldn't imagine trying to take care of a sick family member without being vaccinated.

The vast majority of areas need more vaccines. I have the luxury of living in an amazingly well vaccinated area where the concern is those that won't get vaccinated and they aren't who the media highlights.

Lightsaber

DocLightning wrote:

[quote="lightsaber"
No, that isn't endorsing an attenuated virus vaccine. However, as they are easier to produce, get everyone two jabs of those and then one jab of mRNA seems to be a great solution.

There are currently no attenuated vaccines in use for COVID-19. An attenuated vaccine traditionally used a virus that was passaged under conditions quite different from the human body. This caused the virus to lose various properties that made it dangerous. For Poliovirus type 2, it lost its ability to infect neurons. For measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, these strains underwent multiple alterations to genes that impact immune evasion and cell permissivity. For rotavirus, the strains used are reassortment variants optimized to infect other species or optimized to replicate at lower temperatures than those encountered in the human body. The development of these vaccines is a lengthy process of trial-and-error and relies to a large degree on happenstance. Moreover, some attenuated vaccines (famously Poliovirus type 2) can revert to their wild-type form and cause disease outbreaks.

India's CODAGENIX is working on a new way of attenuating SARS-CoV-2 by deoptimizing its genetic code. If you remember from 7th grade, in the genetic code, there are 64 possible codons (combinations of three nucleic acid bases) but only 20 amino acids. So multiple different codons can code for a given amino acid. However, in each species there are codons that are "preferred" and putting in a "non-preferred" codon can greatly reduce the amount of that protein produced. When the mRNA companies designed their products, they "optimized" the codons for use in human cells so as to provide the most protein production. CODAGENIX is coding an entire SARS-CoV-2 virus with a fully "deoptimized" genetic code in which every codon is the absolute worst choice. In addition to reducing the amount of protein produced, the viral RNA itself also forms complex structures by self-pairing and so deoptimization greatly impacts viral protein production and immune evasion/manipulation of infected cells, yielding a very slowly-replicating virus that doesn't inhibit the immune system. This vaccine candidate can be given as a single nasal dose and so far the preclinical data look very promising. In addition, because of the magnitude of the changes to the vaccine strain, it will be very unlikely for it to revert to wild-type.

The current vaccines that do use the whole virus are inactivated vaccines in which wild-type virus is grown in cell culture and then inactivated with a toxic chemical (beta propiolactone is what's used currently). This chemical is then washed out (or in the case of beta propiolactone, allowed to evaporate out) and then the vaccine is mixed with other ingredients and packaged.

Historically, this kind of vaccine has a mixed history. It worked fairly well for polio, although standardization of the antigen content after 1988 resulted in a much more effective vaccine than the original IPV (Salk). However, inactivated vaccines for flu are poorly immunogenic and have only modest efficacy. An inactivated measles vaccine developed in the 1960s also had modest efficacy. An inactivated RSV vaccine developed in the 1960s actually led to disease enhancement and two children in that trial died of RSV. For COVID-19, this style of vaccine appears to prevent severe disease, but the overall efficacy against disease and transmission is modest. Inactivated vaccines seem to have done a much better job with bacterial illnesses such as pertussis.[/quote]
Ok... I should have used inactivated. Same thing, the virus mutates to make them less effective. The inactivated Covid19 vaccines either need a booster already or will soon.

They are better than nothing. But I personally do not want those vaccines approved for travel to the USA as I do not believe they do enough preventing the import of the virus.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Wow, Detroit is 38% vaccinated.

https://amp.detroitnews.com/amp/7956875002

WoW... Birds of a feather flock together...

Delta (and Lambda) are so transmittable that any clusters of available hosts will be eventually be hard hit in my opinion. People like to talk in easy to identify tribal areas (nation, state/province), but this virus will find its way around.

As long as there is a pocket large enough to sustain the virus, it will remain until we can get all areas.

I personally do not understand the anti-vax mindset. It endangers the whole family. I couldn't imagine trying to take care of a sick family member without being vaccinated.

The vast majority of areas need more vaccines. I have the luxury of living in an amazingly well vaccinated area where the concern is those that won't get vaccinated and they aren't who the media highlights.

Lightsaber

Did you come across hesitancy numbers by race and age group?

There are several story lines, but they don't add up. Hesitancy is high among Republicans, African Americans and young. Doesn't make sense.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Did you come across hesitancy numbers by race and age group?

There are several story lines, but they don't add up. Hesitancy is high among Republicans, African Americans and young. Doesn't make sense.

Ignoring the other two for a moment, I can understand the young, in the initial phases of the pandemic with the initial two variants, the young and health were not getting gravely ill when infected, so we had a number of calls for the economies to be reopened since the majority of the work force were young people, based on that, why would they need to take experimental vaccines?
Now that the Delta variant is out which is disproportionately affecting the young (seems strange for a non-engineered virus), we should expect to see an increase in the number
of young people now forgoing hesitancy. In the USA, vaccines are available, we need more vaccines elsewhere to combat another "mutation" and reduce deaths among the young.

par13del wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Did you come across hesitancy numbers by race and age group?

There are several story lines, but they don't add up. Hesitancy is high among Republicans, African Americans and young. Doesn't make sense.

Ignoring the other two for a moment, I can understand the young, in the initial phases of the pandemic with the initial two variants, the young and health were not getting gravely ill when infected, so we had a number of calls for the economies to be reopened since the majority of the work force were young people, based on that, why would they need to take experimental vaccines?
Now that the Delta variant is out which is disproportionately affecting the young (seems strange for a non-engineered virus), we should expect to see an increase in the number
of young people now forgoing hesitancy. In the USA, vaccines are available, we need more vaccines elsewhere to combat another "mutation" and reduce deaths among the young.

Disproportionally? What I have read indicate they just increase to level still lower than other age groups, and is caused by higher level of socializing of young people

c933103 wrote:

par13del wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Did you come across hesitancy numbers by race and age group?

There are several story lines, but they don't add up. Hesitancy is high among Republicans, African Americans and young. Doesn't make sense.

Ignoring the other two for a moment, I can understand the young, in the initial phases of the pandemic with the initial two variants, the young and health were not getting gravely ill when infected, so we had a number of calls for the economies to be reopened since the majority of the work force were young people, based on that, why would they need to take experimental vaccines?
Now that the Delta variant is out which is disproportionately affecting the young (seems strange for a non-engineered virus), we should expect to see an increase in the number
of young people now forgoing hesitancy. In the USA, vaccines are available, we need more vaccines elsewhere to combat another "mutation" and reduce deaths among the young.

Disproportionally? What I have read indicate they just increase to level still lower than other age groups, and is caused by higher level of socializing of young people

Not sure about where you are, but once it was identified that the young were not getting ill and going to hospitals, they ceased following the rules and started taxing law enforcement, so yes, they did socialize more even if it was being done illegally. Now that they are getting sick, in some instances it is too late, even if they recover, long Covid is an issue.
On the social side, good luck getting the majority of them to give testimonies to the rest of the un-vax crowd that their hesitancy and not following the rules was all one big mistake.
The old saying, "hard head children learn the hard way".

Unfortunately, it looks like J&J must have a 2nd jab as a preliminary study shows only about a third effective vs. Delta:
https://news.yahoo.com/johnson-johnson- ... 14879.html

I know several people who had J&J who quietly went and received a Moderna jab. A 2nd J&J dose would be sufficient per that link (60% effective), but IMHO not good enough. In my opinion, J&J just became a starter dose. Bummer, I convinced a few people to get vaccinated by the one and done promise. Oops...

par13del wrote:

c933103 wrote:

par13del wrote:

Ignoring the other two for a moment, I can understand the young, in the initial phases of the pandemic with the initial two variants, the young and health were not getting gravely ill when infected, so we had a number of calls for the economies to be reopened since the majority of the work force were young people, based on that, why would they need to take experimental vaccines?
Now that the Delta variant is out which is disproportionately affecting the young (seems strange for a non-engineered virus), we should expect to see an increase in the number
of young people now forgoing hesitancy. In the USA, vaccines are available, we need more vaccines elsewhere to combat another "mutation" and reduce deaths among the young.

Disproportionally? What I have read indicate they just increase to level still lower than other age groups, and is caused by higher level of socializing of young people

Not sure about where you are, but once it was identified that the young were not getting ill and going to hospitals, they ceased following the rules and started taxing law enforcement, so yes, they did socialize more even if it was being done illegally. Now that they are getting sick, in some instances it is too late, even if they recover, long Covid is an issue.
On the social side, good luck getting the majority of them to give testimonies to the rest of the un-vax crowd that their hesitancy and not following the rules was all one big mistake.
The old saying, "hard head children learn the hard way".

I wish there was more data. Mississippi is seeing my children in the hospital, including 7 in ICU:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/7-children-a ... 50014.html

Now, low vaccination rates will mean more exposure.

Lightsaber

par13del wrote:

c933103 wrote:

par13del wrote:

Ignoring the other two for a moment, I can understand the young, in the initial phases of the pandemic with the initial two variants, the young and health were not getting gravely ill when infected, so we had a number of calls for the economies to be reopened since the majority of the work force were young people, based on that, why would they need to take experimental vaccines?
Now that the Delta variant is out which is disproportionately affecting the young (seems strange for a non-engineered virus), we should expect to see an increase in the number
of young people now forgoing hesitancy. In the USA, vaccines are available, we need more vaccines elsewhere to combat another "mutation" and reduce deaths among the young.

Disproportionally? What I have read indicate they just increase to level still lower than other age groups, and is caused by higher level of socializing of young people

Not sure about where you are, but once it was identified that the young were not getting ill and going to hospitals, they ceased following the rules and started taxing law enforcement, so yes, they did socialize more even if it was being done illegally. Now that they are getting sick, in some instances it is too late, even if they recover, long Covid is an issue.
On the social side, good luck getting the majority of them to give testimonies to the rest of the un-vax crowd that their hesitancy and not following the rules was all one big mistake.
The old saying, "hard head children learn the hard way".

One theory, we were not looking for it in kids with the wild type. Kids were asymptomatic hence no testing. On top lock downs, no schools, masks and social distancing, there were enough non-pharma mitigations in place to protect them

Half-ass vaccination program, irrational exuberance(borrowing the term from Greenspan) with relaxations, good weather and increased social interactions exposed kids more to Delta. Only when kids started getting sick, people started noticing.

USA Today article:

'I'm sorry, but it's too late' - unvaccinated patients beg for shot; here comes the lambda variant: COVID news

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 035920002/

Sad quote:
"Dr. Brytney Cobia, a hospitalist at Grandview Medical Center in Birmingham, wrote in a recent Facebook post she is treating a lot of young, otherwise healthy people for serious coronavirus infections.

"One of the last things they do before they're intubated is beg me for the vaccine," she wrote. "I hold their hand and tell them that I'm sorry, but it's too late."

lightsaber wrote:

Bummer, I convinced a few people to get vaccinated by the one and done promise.

There is some work on using slowly-dissolving biopolymers to encapsulate vaccines so that the booster dose is built in to the prime dose. So you'd get a dose of a vaccine and half of that dose just sits there as little protected particles until the coating dissolves and releases the second dose. Obviously, this is going to take some time and a lot of technical tinkering.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Half-ass vaccination program, irrational exuberance(borrowing the term from Greenspan) with relaxations, good weather and increased social interactions exposed kids more to Delta. Only when kids started getting sick, people started noticing.

I've talked with local pediatricians. Before, kids always were catching coronavirus from parents (well isolated, but lonely kids). Now we have summer camps and other close contact activities. Now locally is extremely well vaccinated, even among 12+, so cases are growing slowly (for now). I believe your "irrational exuberance" of socialization with kids were they getting in clusters less diligant. (e.g., my younger child is only playing with kids 12+ who are fully vaccinated with full understanding with the other parents I do not exposure her to UnVacs).

I have friends in child therapy/counseling and ones in medicine. The therapists are freaking out as the kids need the camps/interaction as they've never seen so much childhood depression while the doctors see too few vaccinated and are seeing more really sick kids (the doctors I know are only seeing the kids at the ER or in the hospital as when the kids get really sick, locally parents are skipping the pediatrician).

DocLightning wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Bummer, I convinced a few people to get vaccinated by the one and done promise.

There is some work on using slowly-dissolving biopolymers to encapsulate vaccines so that the booster dose is built in to the prime dose. So you'd get a dose of a vaccine and half of that dose just sits there as little protected particles until the coating dissolves and releases the second dose. Obviously, this is going to take some time and a lot of technical tinkering.

That is a neat idea. Do you have any links, I have no issues reading scientific journals and I have... some back channel access. If you give me author and part of a title, I usually can find the link.

Unfortunately, at this time either I persuaded the reluctant to get J&J and now they'll need a booster or now that there is doubt on the "easy one and done" they aren't interested anymore. I don't understand going without a vaccine. Nor do the psychologists and psychiatrists that I am friends with.

Chemist wrote:

USA Today article:

'I'm sorry, but it's too late' - unvaccinated patients beg for shot; here comes the lambda variant: COVID news

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 035920002/

Sad quote:
"Dr. Brytney Cobia, a hospitalist at Grandview Medical Center in Birmingham, wrote in a recent Facebook post she is treating a lot of young, otherwise healthy people for serious coronavirus infections.

"One of the last things they do before they're intubated is beg me for the vaccine," she wrote. "I hold their hand and tell them that I'm sorry, but it's too late."

I think this is the first link on that quote, with a much more complete interview:
https://www.al.com/news/2021/07/im-sorr ... ients.html

On the unvaccinated:
“And the one question that I always ask them is, did you make an appointment with your primary care doctor and ask them for their opinion on whether or not you should receive the vaccine? And so far, nobody has answered yes to that question.”

It is worth reading that longer link. It goes into the mindset of the medical workers, their exhaustion, how they are having to work on caring about the unvaccinated because this is preventable now. While all my doctor friends are "not that bad," they also talk about a lot of patient shuffling between hospitals because staff is exhausted, they are trying to give nurses time off.


Lightsaber

dtw2hyd wrote:

Did you come across hesitancy numbers by race and age group?

There are several story lines, but they don't add up. Hesitancy is high among Republicans, African Americans and young. Doesn't make sense.

Study published in Lancet July 19 of vaccine hesitancy in UK health care workers shows big differences by ethnicity:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry, cannot get link to work. Google: lancet vaccine hesitancy and it is titled:

Ethnic differences in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine
hesitancy in United Kingdom healthcare workers
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11,584 HCWs were included in the cohort analysis. 23% (2704) reported vaccine hesitancy. Compared to White British HCWs (21.3% hesitant), HCWs from Black Caribbean (54.2%), Mixed White and Black Caribbean (38.1%), Black African (34.4%), Chinese (33.1%), Pakistani (30.4%), and White Other (28.7%) ethnic groups were significantly more likely to be hesitant.

I think that the 18+ group here has not taken up the offer of vaccination as strongly as expected, possibly due to the realisation that from the time of first vaccination to full immunisation acceptable for entry to many holiday destinations, too many weeks would have passed, so summer holidays abroad are beyond reach. With clubs etc now re-opening in the UK, it is thought that many club owners will only allow entry to the fully immunised, so the uptake of vaccination may increase.

More employers may start to take the view that (a) full vaccination is mandatory to get a job with them (b) existing employees who are not vaccinated by choice will present a risk to others so may need to be moved to duties where they present less risk.

Both would help reduce vaccine refusal.

UK may be the most vaccinated not tiny country after Canada but the daily rate of vaccination in England has been falling dramatically - 7 day average to June 1 was 464K per day, to July 21 was 198K per day.

Data source for my analysis: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... cinations/

Seems to me that our charge towards herd immunity has reduced to a crawl. Perhaps if a lot of people under 18 start falling ill with Delta there will be a rush to get the lowest age groups protected.

Outlook unclear to me!

dtw2hyd wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Wow, Detroit is 38% vaccinated.

https://amp.detroitnews.com/amp/7956875002

WoW... Birds of a feather flock together...

Delta (and Lambda) are so transmittable that any clusters of available hosts will be eventually be hard hit in my opinion. People like to talk in easy to identify tribal areas (nation, state/province), but this virus will find its way around.

As long as there is a pocket large enough to sustain the virus, it will remain until we can get all areas.

I personally do not understand the anti-vax mindset. It endangers the whole family. I couldn't imagine trying to take care of a sick family member without being vaccinated.

The vast majority of areas need more vaccines. I have the luxury of living in an amazingly well vaccinated area where the concern is those that won't get vaccinated and they aren't who the media highlights.

Lightsaber

Did you come across hesitancy numbers by race and age group?

There are several story lines, but they don't add up. Hesitancy is high among Republicans, African Americans and young. Doesn't make sense.

The problem is there is a political spin by both sides. There is also a bias in that people who were eligible early, when it was a rare and desirable thing to be vaccinated, were more likely. e.g., women in healthcare and education, the elderly.

So let's just talk numbers:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01459-7

I read charts for a living, so pardon me looking into this and interpreting my way on FIgure 1, for USA (but trends are pretty consistent):
1. About 40% more likely to get vaccinated if more than a secondary education (college educated). Education seems to play much more of a role than race or party affiliation, in my opinion.
2. People over age 25 are 40% more likely to get a vaccine than those younger.
3. What surprised me is men are now more accepting of the vaccine than women...
Women are generally less willing to accept the vaccine than men

The last bullet flabbergasted me as for so long more women, but I think that might be because women were in healthcare and education who were prioritized early for vaccines. I'm well aware pregnant women are hesitant. I think we hit the wall on women willing to vaccinate earlier than men and it just wasn't discussed. e.g., according to this June survey, 1 in 4 in contact with patients in hospitals are unvaccinated and... that is likely to be a woman in my opinion.
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19 ... al-workers

To me this makes sense. At work, almost all of the college educated are vaccinated. Very few without college degrees are vaccinated.
Among those without degrees, very few women are vaccinated except the older (who qualified early, but that is my own hypothesis).
A huge number of men were told by their spouse to get a vaccine and they did. Early surveys showed the opposite of this link. I personally think a lot of men played tough and then did the "yes dear" when asked and could get the vaccine.

That is far and away the best link I've found on who will get vaccinated and who won't. Almost everything else I read is so politically biased as to be worthless to figure anything out (It was only published July 16th). It is really hard to find links that aren't so opinionated as to be worthless. I want people vaccinated, not another us vs. them tribal fight. I laugh, as supposedly I'm in a group the media says won't be vaccinated, yet everyone I know personally in that group is. Cest la vie.

Education (more education, more vaccinated), gender (more men) and being above (more vaccinated) or below age 25 seem to be the driving factors on vaccination where I hypothesize those that had early access to the vaccine were more likely to get vaccinated due to more fear of the virus earlier.

Lightsaber

Chemist wrote:

USA Today article:

'I'm sorry, but it's too late' - unvaccinated patients beg for shot; here comes the lambda variant: COVID news

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 035920002/

Sad quote:
"Dr. Brytney Cobia, a hospitalist at Grandview Medical Center in Birmingham, wrote in a recent Facebook post she is treating a lot of young, otherwise healthy people for serious coronavirus infections.

"One of the last things they do before they're intubated is beg me for the vaccine," she wrote. "I hold their hand and tell them that I'm sorry, but it's too late."

I saw this headline floating around today, and I’m raising my BS flag. Very much doubt that happened at all. I’m very pro-vax, but I’ve seen too many stories like these eventually come out as false or made up.

lightsaber wrote:

Unfortunately, it looks like J&J must have a 2nd jab as a preliminary study shows only about a third effective vs. Delta:
https://news.yahoo.com/johnson-johnson- ... 14879.html

I know several people who had J&J who quietly went and received a Moderna jab. A 2nd J&J dose would be sufficient per that link (60% effective), but IMHO not good enough. In my opinion, J&J just became a starter dose. Bummer, I convinced a few people to get vaccinated by the one and done promise. Oops...

par13del wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Disproportionally? What I have read indicate they just increase to level still lower than other age groups, and is caused by higher level of socializing of young people

Not sure about where you are, but once it was identified that the young were not getting ill and going to hospitals, they ceased following the rules and started taxing law enforcement, so yes, they did socialize more even if it was being done illegally. Now that they are getting sick, in some instances it is too late, even if they recover, long Covid is an issue.
On the social side, good luck getting the majority of them to give testimonies to the rest of the un-vax crowd that their hesitancy and not following the rules was all one big mistake.
The old saying, "hard head children learn the hard way".

I wish there was more data. Mississippi is seeing my children in the hospital, including 7 in ICU:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/7-children-a ... 50014.html

Now, low vaccination rates will mean more exposure.

Lightsaber

60% effective against symptomatic case of Delta would be similar to Pfizer after second dose

DocLightning wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Bummer, I convinced a few people to get vaccinated by the one and done promise.

There is some work on using slowly-dissolving biopolymers to encapsulate vaccines so that the booster dose is built in to the prime dose. So you'd get a dose of a vaccine and half of that dose just sits there as little protected particles until the coating dissolves and releases the second dose. Obviously, this is going to take some time and a lot of technical tinkering.

And adds just more substances that could create side effects.

Lambda has been found in UK. A few cases, all imported. How does Lamda fare in competition with Delta? Is there any data? Is the efficacy of existing vaccines against Lamda known yet?

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Unfortunately, it looks like J&J must have a 2nd jab as a preliminary study shows only about a third effective vs. Delta:
https://news.yahoo.com/johnson-johnson- ... 14879.html

I know several people who had J&J who quietly went and received a Moderna jab. A 2nd J&J dose would be sufficient per that link (60% effective), but IMHO not good enough. In my opinion, J&J just became a starter dose. Bummer, I convinced a few people to get vaccinated by the one and done promise. Oops...

par13del wrote:

Not sure about where you are, but once it was identified that the young were not getting ill and going to hospitals, they ceased following the rules and started taxing law enforcement, so yes, they did socialize more even if it was being done illegally. Now that they are getting sick, in some instances it is too late, even if they recover, long Covid is an issue.
On the social side, good luck getting the majority of them to give testimonies to the rest of the un-vax crowd that their hesitancy and not following the rules was all one big mistake.
The old saying, "hard head children learn the hard way".

I wish there was more data. Mississippi is seeing my children in the hospital, including 7 in ICU:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/7-children-a ... 50014.html

Now, low vaccination rates will mean more exposure.

Lightsaber

60% effective against symptomatic case of Delta would be similar to Pfizer after second dose

Agreed that 2-doses of J&J is pretty good. But not the "one and done" I used to persuade a few hesitant about getting vaccinated.

Since I cannot persuade people to get vaccinated, I want a vaccine from younger kids.

Lightsaber

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/delta-c ... oors-.html

Fauci says vaccinated people ‘might want to consider’ wearing masks indoors as delta variant surges in U.S.
Fauci told CNBC that U.S. officials are concerned that they are seeing more breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people.

That's peak confusion-causing messaging, "yes", "no", "maybe"

c933103 wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/delta-covid-variant-fauci-says-vaccinated-people-might-want-to-consider-wearing-masks-indoors-.html

Fauci says vaccinated people ‘might want to consider’ wearing masks indoors as delta variant surges in U.S.
Fauci told CNBC that U.S. officials are concerned that they are seeing more breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people.

That's peak confusion-causing messaging, "yes", "no", "maybe"

I wonder where is Dr. Walenski now-a-days on the truth-o-meter.

Surgeon General Dr.Murthy cannot give a straight answer.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/ ... ronavirus/

Fauci being a TV pundit just flip-flopping.

Capitol's Attending Physician is recommending members and staff to wear masks against CDC guidance. Another high profile public official.

We have two groups of advisors now, those TV pundits and those who are actually responsible for public health.

dtw2hyd wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/delta-covid-variant-fauci-says-vaccinated-people-might-want-to-consider-wearing-masks-indoors-.html

Fauci says vaccinated people ‘might want to consider’ wearing masks indoors as delta variant surges in U.S.
Fauci told CNBC that U.S. officials are concerned that they are seeing more breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people.

That's peak confusion-causing messaging, "yes", "no", "maybe"

I wonder where is Dr. Walenski now-a-days on the truth-o-meter.

Surgeon General Dr.Murthy cannot give a straight answer.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/ ... ronavirus/

Fauci being a TV pundit just flip-flopping.

Capitol's Attending Physician is recommending members and staff to wear masks against CDC guidance. Another high profile public official.

We have two groups of advisors now, those TV pundits and those who are actually responsible for public health.

It's pretty clear that if you want to be careful, you wear mask indoors except in your home.
If you think it's a hoax or you won't get very sick, then you're probably not paying attention, anyway.

During CDC briefing this morning, with Walenski and Fauci in attendance, they stood behind existing mask guidance.
Vaccinated = you do not need to wear a mask.

KFTG wrote:

During CDC briefing this morning, with Walenski and Fauci in attendance, they stood behind existing mask guidance.
Vaccinated = you do not need to wear a mask.

That has always been a weird meeting, Walenski just reads the prepared notes, Fauci says one thing on TV and different thing in this briefing. The only person I trust is the sign language interpreter.

Well bad news
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavi ... istry-says
Israel say Pfizer shots is now only 39% efficient against Delta.
But good news is it's still 91% efficient in offering protection from severe illness

They also claim there is a trend of decreasing efficiency correlated with time when people got their shots, with data as such:
Those vaccinated in April have 75% efficiency
Those vaccinated in March have 67% efficiency
Those vaccinated in February have 44% efficiency
Those vaccinated in January have 16% efficiency

Based on such data, it seems like a booster dose every 6 months is necessary? And the world have nowhere near enough vaccine manufacturing capacity for one booster dose every 6 months for entire world population

c933103 wrote:

Well bad news
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavi ... istry-says
Israel say Pfizer shots is now only 39% efficient against Delta.
But good news is it's still 91% efficient in offering protection from severe illness

They also claim there is a trend of decreasing efficiency correlated with time when people got their shots, with data as such:
Those vaccinated in April have 75% efficiency
Those vaccinated in March have 67% efficiency
Those vaccinated in February have 44% efficiency
Those vaccinated in January have 16% efficiency

Based on such data, it seems like a booster dose every 6 months is necessary? And the world have nowhere near enough vaccine manufacturing capacity for one booster dose every 6 months for entire world population

If the Israeli data reflects the actual situation out there, this is seriously fucked up. We need a G8 cooperative vaccine production task force STAT.

The entire world was shut down and the G8 did not think to do anything then about combined vaccine production, heck they did not even do that for regular PPE equipment
and then current treatment options before the vaccines were generated, so what is the difference now, the world situation was worse back then, now a lot of the world is learning to live with the virus mostly because the G8 nations gave them no choice.

Aaron747 wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Well bad news
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavi ... istry-says
Israel say Pfizer shots is now only 39% efficient against Delta.
But good news is it's still 91% efficient in offering protection from severe illness

They also claim there is a trend of decreasing efficiency correlated with time when people got their shots, with data as such:
Those vaccinated in April have 75% efficiency
Those vaccinated in March have 67% efficiency
Those vaccinated in February have 44% efficiency
Those vaccinated in January have 16% efficiency

Based on such data, it seems like a booster dose every 6 months is necessary? And the world have nowhere near enough vaccine manufacturing capacity for one booster dose every 6 months for entire world population

If the Israeli data reflects the actual situation out there, this is seriously fucked up. We need a G8 cooperative vaccine production task force STAT.

If I am getting the subliminal messages correctly, Israeli data being sidelined as a tiny data set from tiny nation. I think we are still in denial.

It doesn't matter whether data is good or bad, it is how we use it proactively to save lives.

The data out of Israel is discouraging. The vaccines are losing effectiveness it appears. We will need booster shots soon or need to lockdown and make masks mandatory everywhere again. At least in the U.S. I am surprised we not seeing lockdowns and more restrictions with the spread among the unvaccinated. Since we don’t have vaccine passport we have to assume everyone is unvaccinated around us.

par13del wrote:

The entire world was shut down and the G8 did not think to do anything then about combined vaccine production, heck they did not even do that for regular PPE equipment
and then current treatment options before the vaccines were generated, so what is the difference now, the world situation was worse back then, now a lot of the world is learning to live with the virus mostly because the G8 nations gave them no choice.

They also were not looking at a variant many times more transmissible than the original one, affecting more than just the elderly.

Pi7472000 wrote:

The data out of Israel is discouraging. The vaccines are losing effectiveness it appears. We will need booster shots soon or need to lockdown and make masks mandatory everywhere again. At least in the U.S. I am surprised we not seeing lockdowns and more restrictions with the spread among the unvaccinated. Since we don’t have vaccine passport we have to assume everyone is unvaccinated around us.

Any living human host vaccinated or unvaccinated will replicate and spread any virus.

Unvaccinated adults are thinking they are the torch bearers of freedom.
Vaccinated adults are thinking they are licensed to spread virus.
There are 48 Million kids below 12 not qualified to get vaccine. 14% of population is "unvaccinated", not by choice. So when you want to blame, make it clear it is unvaxx adults.

I personally think the untimely, unwanted no mask privilege to the vaccinated, just to rub(couldn't motivate) antivaxxers is the reason we are in this pickle. Probably, antivaxxers enjoying no mask mandates and are more convinced they don't need vaccine now than before. Hence the stall.

Had there been a better approach, while continuing to protect vaccinated and unvaccinated children, we would be in a better position.

Aaron747 wrote:

par13del wrote:

The entire world was shut down and the G8 did not think to do anything then about combined vaccine production, heck they did not even do that for regular PPE equipment
and then current treatment options before the vaccines were generated, so what is the difference now, the world situation was worse back then, now a lot of the world is learning to live with the virus mostly because the G8 nations gave them no choice.

They also were not looking at a variant many times more transmissible than the original one, affecting more than just the elderly.

Honestly, I do not want to go down that rabbit hole because the majority of the elderly who perished during this pandemic was due to negligence and carelessness on the part of the authorities - political and health care - who mismanaged their care. Releasing elderly from hospital back to their nursing home whose health care providers had no PPE equipment because it was needed elsewhere where the young and healthy were located, those health care workers moving seamlessly between institutions, no service for senior citizens because the facilities and medical personnel were required to exclusively treat the young and healthy for Covid, and on and on it goes.

If the G8 had pushed the manufacture of PPE and testing equipment / supplies the way they pushed vaccines, the world may be in a better position today, unfortunately, not much money to be made in that endeavor, much more to be made in vaccine and expensive equipment such as ventilators, note no big push for other treatment options for those already infected.

Funny thing, not much news about the treatment being provided to anti-vaxxers today where vaccines are of no use. So if deaths are not climbing as fast as before obviously we have become more adept at treatment options, since we are told that the latest variants are more transmissible and deadly than the initial Aplha. Wonder how many people are still using cloth mask because N95 equivalents are still hard to come by, or store shelves now filled with Lysol which had a run after it was realized that it had been modified to kill the initial SAR's from early 2000. Major difference now is that the deaths are more skewed to the young who are the majority of the anti-vaxxers, hopefully, the mortality of the vaccinated elderly will remain low, unfortunately, as they age, other health issues are affected by covid and can still be deadly.

par13del wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

par13del wrote:

The entire world was shut down and the G8 did not think to do anything then about combined vaccine production, heck they did not even do that for regular PPE equipment
and then current treatment options before the vaccines were generated, so what is the difference now, the world situation was worse back then, now a lot of the world is learning to live with the virus mostly because the G8 nations gave them no choice.

They also were not looking at a variant many times more transmissible than the original one, affecting more than just the elderly.

Honestly, I do not want to go down that rabbit hole because the majority of the elderly who perished during this pandemic was due to negligence and carelessness on the part of the authorities - political and health care - who mismanaged their care. Releasing elderly from hospital back to their nursing home whose health care providers had no PPE equipment because it was needed elsewhere where the young and healthy were located, those health care workers moving seamlessly between institutions, no service for senior citizens because the facilities and medical personnel were required to exclusively treat the young and healthy for Covid, and on and on it goes.

If the G8 had pushed the manufacture of PPE and testing equipment / supplies the way they pushed vaccines, the world may be in a better position today, unfortunately, not much money to be made in that endeavor, much more to be made in vaccine and expensive equipment such as ventilators, note no big push for other treatment options for those already infected.

Funny thing, not much news about the treatment being provided to anti-vaxxers today where vaccines are of no use. So if deaths are not climbing as fast as before obviously we have become more adept at treatment options, since we are told that the latest variants are more transmissible and deadly than the initial Aplha. Wonder how many people are still using cloth mask because N95 equivalents are still hard to come by, or store shelves now filled with Lysol which had a run after it was realized that it had been modified to kill the initial SAR's from early 2000. Major difference now is that the deaths are more skewed to the young who are the majority of the anti-vaxxers, hopefully, the mortality of the vaccinated elderly will remain low, unfortunately, as they age, other health issues are affected by covid and can still be deadly.

There is plenty of medical discussion on non-vaccinated treatments.

The issue is a Covid19 patient requires a lot of nursing hours. Also, I have long haul Covid19. I lost part of my taste. e.g., bacon went from the yummiest food to disgusting because of what I cannot taste.

From my doctor friends, a 3 day dose of Remdesivir and high flow oxygen works for about 70% of patients

https://www.goodrx.com/blog/coronavirus ... n-the-way/

What all my doctor friends in the coronavirus wards discuss is the pain killers. Morphine isn't discussed anymore. Phentanil? Super common due to the pain of coronavirus. Heroin (most powerful painkiller) has been prescribed like never before thanks to coronavirus.

Of course the asthma medicines in the link really help.

All the coronavirus doctors I know swear by Tocilizumab as the next regimen. If that doesn't save you, you will probably die. Why does my link provided show the NIH doesn't recommend it? 100% incidence of long term negative side effects. You will live though.

Vaccines are effective. The medical staff are begging people to get vaccinated because they are exhausted. They need to go back to treating other stuff. Many doctors and nurses are refusing to go back to the coronavirus ward as why? They see no need except for pediatric coronavirus.

The trend in hospitalizations isn't good.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations


Vaccinations are proven to reduce spread. Vaccinated are far less likely to be asymptomatic too:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/cdc-stud ... es-5121080

Please read the above. Vaccinate if you don't want to infect others and reduce the burden. Influenza and coronavirus is really bad together and I bet we see that this winter.

I bet we need to triage this winter. I had one of my uncles kicked out of a hospital last winter to die. Thankfully there was plenty of oxygen and medicine and my cousin volunteered and saved him. Triage is a point system and if you have too many points, you are denied care.

Lightsaber

On local radio program: Expert say tjat, given vaccine breakthrough infection, vaccinated individuals should observe extended quarantine of 14 days at hotel.

lightsaber wrote:

The trend in hospitalizations isn't good.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hospitalizations


Vaccinations are proven to reduce spread. Vaccinated are far less likely to be asymptomatic too:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/cdc-stud ... es-5121080

Please read the above. Vaccinate if you don't want to infect others and reduce the burden. Influenza and coronavirus is really bad together and I bet we see that this winter.

I bet we need to triage this winter. I had one of my uncles kicked out of a hospital last winter to die. Thankfully there was plenty of oxygen and medicine and my cousin volunteered and saved him. Triage is a point system and if you have too many points, you are denied care.

Lightsaber

In my opinion, the situation will only get worse, especially the hospitalizations, the unvaccinated are making up the bulk of patients, the deaths are now mostly the young, and the older folks who were vaccinated are not going to hospitals or even clinics. The vaccines work, everyone sees that but the politics is now more important than health. Measures being put in place or proposed to encourage vaccination are flipped as discriminatory, demonstrations and civil disobedience is on the rise, and governments the world over don't seem to think they can get out of the nanny state and let what will, be. We never had sufficient hospital staff before the pandemic, now with the pandemic funds we saw the failure of emergency physical hospitals with no trained staff to run / operate them, it takes time to train and it is still a field that requires dedicated persons, its not just a job.
Sadly I think we are fast getting to a point where both sides of society will be against each other, I have been fully vaccinated since May, now due to the increase in cases and high number of unvaccinated, we are having increased restrictions applied to all, attempt to exempt the vaccinated is creating huge political damage and politicians usually respond to the money or the noise.
Saving grace is that some claim if and when we receive vaccines other than AZ our numbers will go up, time will tell, other vaccines have had issues and I think once in country, another excuse will be found. All in all more will die and the effects of long covid will probably be greater than expected.

Interesting story on Australia and their time during COVID. Doesn’t seem as positive there anymore. Interesting how much more supportive their population is of lockdowns compared to the U.S. where people throw tantrums over masks on a plane. Will be a long time until the world travels to Australia again it seems.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/24/aust ... index.html

flyguy89 wrote:

Chemist wrote:

USA Today article:

'I'm sorry, but it's too late' - unvaccinated patients beg for shot; here comes the lambda variant: COVID news

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 035920002/

Sad quote:
"Dr. Brytney Cobia, a hospitalist at Grandview Medical Center in Birmingham, wrote in a recent Facebook post she is treating a lot of young, otherwise healthy people for serious coronavirus infections.

"One of the last things they do before they're intubated is beg me for the vaccine," she wrote. "I hold their hand and tell them that I'm sorry, but it's too late."

I saw this headline floating around today, and I’m raising my BS flag. Very much doubt that happened at all. I’m very pro-vax, but I’ve seen too many stories like these eventually come out as false or made up.

It may be BS… there is so much if it about these days.

Here is a situation with a guy who believed to the end that his faith would protect him from COVID and refused the vaccine throughout.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57958358


I do hope others who are hesitant see situation like this and think again about taking the vaccine. Not because I care whether they live or die or have long term health problems from covid (their choice, live -or die - with the consequence of that choice) but because they are then much more likely to become a burden on the health system and are at higher risk of spreading the virus than vaccinated people.

chimborazo wrote:

...
I do hope others who are hesitant see situation like this and think again about taking the vaccine. Not because I care whether they live or die or have long term health problems from covid (their choice, live -or die - with the consequence of that choice) but because they are then much more likely to become a burden on the health system and are at higher risk of spreading the virus than vaccinated people.

I agree this is the prevailing logic going around but it is fundamentally flawed.

You cannot put your health or state of health system in a group of selfish people. On top give them no-mask freedom to spread virus more rapidly.

A Canadian academician did a theoretical model on just vaccines(99% efficacy 70% population), just non-pharma mitigations and both.

Even if she an alarmist and this is just a theoretical model, it is something every one to consider.

https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/sta ... 63/photo/2