Sorry for the missing link in my previous post (can't edit anymore)
https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemi ... vacc-doses

I figured a link wasn't necessary since I calculated most numbers myself. But in the above link, you'll find the dataset I used to calculate my numbers.

Sorry again, best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Edit: from the same link, if I understand correctly, B.1.1.7 (501Y.V1) variant (south Africa) and S:N501Y – mutation containing variants are well present in Switzerland.

flyingclrs727 wrote:

Eiszeit wrote:

seb146 wrote:

I have heard some people say they do not want the covid shot because they are anti vax or they don't trust a vaccine that has been out only a short time or any number of reasons. The stock response is "what about smallpox vaccine and polio vaccine and measles vaccine" but, honestly, what about tetanus? Can we add that to the list?

since tetanus isn't transmittable I would not put it on the list, it is a vaccine only for personal benefit.

Well for one thing Tetanus vaccines aren't available by themselves. They are part of the DTaP, DTaP-IPV-HepB, TDaP, TD, and other combo shots. In the US adults are routinely given Tetanus boosters every 10 years. Along with it comes a booster dose of Diptheria toxoid and often Pertussis. Diptheria is an important disease to keep from coming back.

Second, it's incredibly expensive to treat people with Tetanus. There was an unvaccinated 5 year old boy in Oregon recently who had Tetanus. It cost the state of Oregon over $850,000 to treat him. I think taxpayers would disagree that Tetanus vaccination is just a personal choice.

If we go by costs for the taxpayer alcohol, smoking, overtime would all be banned. I rephrase my statement: Tetanus is a vaccine that provides benefits only towards the vaccinated, it should not be included in this list of diseases, that pose a threat towards others. If anybody "thinks" that a tetanus infection is better than the dangers of that vaccine; have fun with it, most will not extract pleasure from it.

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

I looked at the numbers of weekly infections, hospitalisation, and death here in Switzerland.

For vaccination Switzerland is at the lower end of the EU Pack (26.3 jabs in 100 habitants; vaccine used Pfizer and Moderna). But among those over 80 64% are fully vaccinated and additional 10% had their first jab. For those between 70 and 79 the numbers are 41% and 28 % respectively.

In all, new infections, hospitalisation, and death, one can see the impact of vaccination of those over 70.

Comparing the weekly number of new infections with the maximum number I get for last week:

• over 80: 7% (compared to the max number of people over 80 that were infected in one week)
• between 70 and 79: 13%
• between 20 and 69: between 22% and 28%

This trend can bee seen over the last weeks with the numbers coming down for those over 70, and more of less stable for those between 20 and 69. And while those numbers look encouraging, the picture looks much worse for those under 20.

Last week children under 10 had the highest number of positive test we had yet in Switzerland (100%) and for those between 10 and 20 I get 43% last week.
And here too we have a trend with the number raising over the last weeks.

While the number of infection among kids under 10 is still lower than in the other age groups, they made up 5% of all infection last week compared to 1.9% over the entire pandemic.

One reason could simply be that those two age groups were much less tested earlier hence the trend wouldn't be worrying...but that would be the reassuring explanation.

Are similar trends noticeable in other countries? Have any of you read something about such trends and could share some knowledge?

If there is really an increase in infection among those under 20, wouldn't it make sense to prioritise vaccination of people with kids at home over people like myself without kids?

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Most short-term trends published on Western media seem to indicate positive effects in the age groups of vaccinated.
The Western media is however not very transparent in many ways.
Many people are dying after taking the vaccines and they're badged with the standard "no evidence of ties to the vaccine".
Chinese media have recently denounced this lack of transparency as censorship and urged to consider the risk of mRNA vaccines to the elderly.

You also need to keep in mind that these are short-term trends.

In Israel, infections and deaths are down significantly but so is testing.
They're only testing 30k people per day now, so we don't have any idea of how Covid is spreading there, and there is no reason for Covid to not spread among the unvaccinated, so we may be seeing some degree of manipulation to make the numbers look good.

In Japan, local variants have been detected and emergency situations have been declared. Doctors and nurses are under strict orders to not speak up about what's going on in the hospitals, hospitals are off-limits to non-patients.

In India, the situation is very dire, with several variants of which one in particular may be on its way to affecting half of the population.

In Pakistan, the situation is also very dire, but this is less publicised.

6 months into vaccinations, Covid still has the upper hand and the situation has never been worse.
There are so many regional variants now that it's impossible to keep track.
Consequently, vaccinations are losing value and will only retain usefulness with hermetically closed borders to keep variants at bay, but world leaders are doing the exact opposite, by easing restrictions despite very high numbers.

It's going to get vastly worse before it gets better.

There's a few things I need to point out here:

CaptainHaresh wrote:

Most short-term trends published on Western media seem to indicate positive effects in the age groups of vaccinated.
The Western media is however not very transparent in many ways.

Are we supposed to take this premise at face value?

Many people are dying after taking the vaccines and they're badged with the standard "no evidence of ties to the vaccine".
Chinese media have recently denounced this lack of transparency as censorship and urged to consider the risk of mRNA vaccines to the elderly.

Who are these "many" people dying? Is there a source? Is there a specific estimate to quantify these "many" people (is it a hundred people, a thousand people, 10 thousand?) And yes, if people are dying after receiving a vaccine, there needs to be strong evidence to link that the vaccine caused specific events that led to these people dying - in other words, just because somebody died after getting the vaccine doesn't mean the vaccine caused it.

You also need to keep in mind that these are short-term trends.

Most long-term effects associated with the vaccines would be apparent by now. We've seen it with the blood clotting cases with AZ/J&J (which are extremely rare). I also find this rebuttal to be very facile in that the vaccine can be out for 50 years, but you can always come back and say "We don't know what happens after 51 years."

In Israel, infections and deaths are down significantly but so is testing.
They're only testing 30k people per day now, so we don't have any idea of how Covid is spreading there, and there is no reason for Covid to not spread among the unvaccinated, so we may be seeing some degree of manipulation to make the numbers look good.

Testing is not an exogenous variable when it comes to dealing with an infectious disease. If there's less COVID going around (which the death figures seem to tell us), then demand for COVID testing will also become smaller. We don't do mass testing for polio these days because the number of polio cases worldwide is close to zero now.

CaptainHaresh wrote:

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

I looked at the numbers of weekly infections, hospitalisation, and death here in Switzerland.

For vaccination Switzerland is at the lower end of the EU Pack (26.3 jabs in 100 habitants; vaccine used Pfizer and Moderna). But among those over 80 64% are fully vaccinated and additional 10% had their first jab. For those between 70 and 79 the numbers are 41% and 28 % respectively.

In all, new infections, hospitalisation, and death, one can see the impact of vaccination of those over 70.

Comparing the weekly number of new infections with the maximum number I get for last week:

• over 80: 7% (compared to the max number of people over 80 that were infected in one week)
• between 70 and 79: 13%
• between 20 and 69: between 22% and 28%

This trend can bee seen over the last weeks with the numbers coming down for those over 70, and more of less stable for those between 20 and 69. And while those numbers look encouraging, the picture looks much worse for those under 20.

Last week children under 10 had the highest number of positive test we had yet in Switzerland (100%) and for those between 10 and 20 I get 43% last week.
And here too we have a trend with the number raising over the last weeks.

While the number of infection among kids under 10 is still lower than in the other age groups, they made up 5% of all infection last week compared to 1.9% over the entire pandemic.

One reason could simply be that those two age groups were much less tested earlier hence the trend wouldn't be worrying...but that would be the reassuring explanation.

Are similar trends noticeable in other countries? Have any of you read something about such trends and could share some knowledge?

If there is really an increase in infection among those under 20, wouldn't it make sense to prioritise vaccination of people with kids at home over people like myself without kids?

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Most short-term trends published on Western media seem to indicate positive effects in the age groups of vaccinated.
The Western media is however not very transparent in many ways.
Many people are dying after taking the vaccines and they're badged with the standard "no evidence of ties to the vaccine".
Chinese media have recently denounced this lack of transparency as censorship and urged to consider the risk of mRNA vaccines to the elderly.

You also need to keep in mind that these are short-term trends.

In Israel, infections and deaths are down significantly but so is testing.
They're only testing 30k people per day now, so we don't have any idea of how Covid is spreading there, and there is no reason for Covid to not spread among the unvaccinated, so we may be seeing some degree of manipulation to make the numbers look good.

In Japan, local variants have been detected and emergency situations have been declared. Doctors and nurses are under strict orders to not speak up about what's going on in the hospitals, hospitals are off-limits to non-patients.

In India, the situation is very dire, with several variants of which one in particular may be on its way to affecting half of the population.

In Pakistan, the situation is also very dire, but this is less publicised.

6 months into vaccinations, Covid still has the upper hand and the situation has never been worse.
There are so many regional variants now that it's impossible to keep track.
Consequently, vaccinations are losing value and will only retain usefulness with hermetically closed borders to keep variants at bay, but world leaders are doing the exact opposite, by easing restrictions despite very high numbers.

It's going to get vastly worse before it gets better.

I only agree with the last paragraph ( I take it as an opinion) and the India situation ( plenty covered in almost every language on earth as soon as you open a news site).
Sadly, for the rest of your post, it's baseless rumors unless you provide sources.

Pfizer is working on a drug that can be taken at home at the first sign of COVID to treat the virus. They hope to have the drug ready by the end of this year:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/pfizer- ... -says.html

Pfizer’s experimental oral drug to treat Covid-19 at the first sign of illness could be available by the end of the year, CEO Albert Bourla told CNBC on Tuesday.

The company, which developed the first authorized Covid-19 vaccine in the U.S. with German drugmaker BioNTech, began in March an early stage clinical trial testing a new antiviral therapy for the disease. The drug is part of a class of medicines called protease inhibitors and works by inhibiting an enzyme that the virus needs to replicate in human cells.

Protease inhibitors are used to treat other viral pathogens such as HIV and hepatitis C.

If clinical trials go well and the Food and Drug Administration approves it, the drug could be distributed across the U.S. by the end of the year, Bourla told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Health experts say the drug, taken by mouth, could be a game changer because people newly infected with the virus could use it outside of hospitals. Researchers hope the medication will keep the disease from progressing and prevent hospital trips.

We have vaccines to help prevent the disease from spreading, and now it appears we have a treatment option on the horizon. It very much seems like we'll be out of this by the end of this year.

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

Sorry for the missing link in my previous post (can't edit anymore)
https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemi ... vacc-doses

I figured a link wasn't necessary since I calculated most numbers myself. But in the above link, you'll find the dataset I used to calculate my numbers.

Sorry again, best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Edit: from the same link, if I understand correctly, B.1.1.7 (501Y.V1) variant (south Africa) and S:N501Y – mutation containing variants are well present in Switzerland.

Hands off my variant, Jonas! I live in Kent, England and I am pretty sure that B.1.1.7 was invented here.

art wrote:

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

Sorry for the missing link in my previous post (can't edit anymore)
https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemi ... vacc-doses

I figured a link wasn't necessary since I calculated most numbers myself. But in the above link, you'll find the dataset I used to calculate my numbers.

Sorry again, best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Edit: from the same link, if I understand correctly, B.1.1.7 (501Y.V1) variant (south Africa) and S:N501Y – mutation containing variants are well present in Switzerland.

Hands off my variant, Jonas! I live in Kent, England and I am pretty sure that B.1.1.7 was invented here.

Of course you are right! B.1.351 (501Y.V2) would be the one developed in South Africa (If I may keep your dark humour). And while present in Switzerland, it is far less spread than "your" variant.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

CaptainHaresh wrote:

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

I looked at the numbers of weekly infections, hospitalisation, and death here in Switzerland.

For vaccination Switzerland is at the lower end of the EU Pack (26.3 jabs in 100 habitants; vaccine used Pfizer and Moderna). But among those over 80 64% are fully vaccinated and additional 10% had their first jab. For those between 70 and 79 the numbers are 41% and 28 % respectively.

In all, new infections, hospitalisation, and death, one can see the impact of vaccination of those over 70.

Comparing the weekly number of new infections with the maximum number I get for last week:

• over 80: 7% (compared to the max number of people over 80 that were infected in one week)
• between 70 and 79: 13%
• between 20 and 69: between 22% and 28%

This trend can bee seen over the last weeks with the numbers coming down for those over 70, and more of less stable for those between 20 and 69. And while those numbers look encouraging, the picture looks much worse for those under 20.

Last week children under 10 had the highest number of positive test we had yet in Switzerland (100%) and for those between 10 and 20 I get 43% last week.
And here too we have a trend with the number raising over the last weeks.

While the number of infection among kids under 10 is still lower than in the other age groups, they made up 5% of all infection last week compared to 1.9% over the entire pandemic.

One reason could simply be that those two age groups were much less tested earlier hence the trend wouldn't be worrying...but that would be the reassuring explanation.

Are similar trends noticeable in other countries? Have any of you read something about such trends and could share some knowledge?

If there is really an increase in infection among those under 20, wouldn't it make sense to prioritise vaccination of people with kids at home over people like myself without kids?

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Most short-term trends published on Western media seem to indicate positive effects in the age groups of vaccinated.
The Western media is however not very transparent in many ways.
Many people are dying after taking the vaccines and they're badged with the standard "no evidence of ties to the vaccine".
Chinese media have recently denounced this lack of transparency as censorship and urged to consider the risk of mRNA vaccines to the elderly.

You also need to keep in mind that these are short-term trends.

In Israel, infections and deaths are down significantly but so is testing.
They're only testing 30k people per day now, so we don't have any idea of how Covid is spreading there, and there is no reason for Covid to not spread among the unvaccinated, so we may be seeing some degree of manipulation to make the numbers look good.

In Japan, local variants have been detected and emergency situations have been declared. Doctors and nurses are under strict orders to not speak up about what's going on in the hospitals, hospitals are off-limits to non-patients.

In India, the situation is very dire, with several variants of which one in particular may be on its way to affecting half of the population.

In Pakistan, the situation is also very dire, but this is less publicised.

6 months into vaccinations, Covid still has the upper hand and the situation has never been worse.
There are so many regional variants now that it's impossible to keep track.
Consequently, vaccinations are losing value and will only retain usefulness with hermetically closed borders to keep variants at bay, but world leaders are doing the exact opposite, by easing restrictions despite very high numbers.

It's going to get vastly worse before it gets better.

Israel is performing 272 test per confirmed case. They have a good understanding of their case load. They are out-testing the USA on a per-capita basis too.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/test ... WN~IND~ISR
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... HL~BRA~ISR
Israel on a population bases is out-testing Germany and the Netherlands and is about tied with France. Only the UK tests far more, but they seem to out-test everyoen else. I would say Israel really knows how it is going.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... RA~DEU~NLD

The rule of thumb is you must test 20 times (or more) per case found. There doesn't seem to be manipulation of data. We instead see that between vaccines and natural immunity, Israel is doing very well. As is the UK.

I do agree that the situation is bad. Possibly the worst yet due to the magnitude of the outbreaks in India and Pakistan. I agree it will get worse before it gets better.
However, the countries heavily vaccinated with Western vaccines are doing well Chile is just not seeing the improvement of a heavy vaccination campaign, at least as far as I can tell. I am thinking everyone who had SinoVac there needs an AZ or mRNA booster shot too.

The issue is vaccine quantity. There just isn't enough on a global basis to matter.

Lightsaber

CaptainHaresh wrote:

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

I looked at the numbers of weekly infections, hospitalisation, and death here in Switzerland.

For vaccination Switzerland is at the lower end of the EU Pack (26.3 jabs in 100 habitants; vaccine used Pfizer and Moderna). But among those over 80 64% are fully vaccinated and additional 10% had their first jab. For those between 70 and 79 the numbers are 41% and 28 % respectively.

In all, new infections, hospitalisation, and death, one can see the impact of vaccination of those over 70.

Comparing the weekly number of new infections with the maximum number I get for last week:

• over 80: 7% (compared to the max number of people over 80 that were infected in one week)
• between 70 and 79: 13%
• between 20 and 69: between 22% and 28%

This trend can bee seen over the last weeks with the numbers coming down for those over 70, and more of less stable for those between 20 and 69. And while those numbers look encouraging, the picture looks much worse for those under 20.

Last week children under 10 had the highest number of positive test we had yet in Switzerland (100%) and for those between 10 and 20 I get 43% last week.
And here too we have a trend with the number raising over the last weeks.

While the number of infection among kids under 10 is still lower than in the other age groups, they made up 5% of all infection last week compared to 1.9% over the entire pandemic.

One reason could simply be that those two age groups were much less tested earlier hence the trend wouldn't be worrying...but that would be the reassuring explanation.

Are similar trends noticeable in other countries? Have any of you read something about such trends and could share some knowledge?

If there is really an increase in infection among those under 20, wouldn't it make sense to prioritise vaccination of people with kids at home over people like myself without kids?

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Most short-term trends published on Western media seem to indicate positive effects in the age groups of vaccinated.
The Western media is however not very transparent in many ways.
Many people are dying after taking the vaccines and they're badged with the standard "no evidence of ties to the vaccine".
Chinese media have recently denounced this lack of transparency as censorship and urged to consider the risk of mRNA vaccines to the elderly.

You also need to keep in mind that these are short-term trends.

In Israel, infections and deaths are down significantly but so is testing.
They're only testing 30k people per day now, so we don't have any idea of how Covid is spreading there, and there is no reason for Covid to not spread among the unvaccinated, so we may be seeing some degree of manipulation to make the numbers look good.

In Japan, local variants have been detected and emergency situations have been declared. Doctors and nurses are under strict orders to not speak up about what's going on in the hospitals, hospitals are off-limits to non-patients.

In India, the situation is very dire, with several variants of which one in particular may be on its way to affecting half of the population.

In Pakistan, the situation is also very dire, but this is less publicised.

6 months into vaccinations, Covid still has the upper hand and the situation has never been worse.
There are so many regional variants now that it's impossible to keep track.
Consequently, vaccinations are losing value and will only retain usefulness with hermetically closed borders to keep variants at bay, but world leaders are doing the exact opposite, by easing restrictions despite very high numbers.

It's going to get vastly worse before it gets better.

Can you list some media you think that are more trustworthy than Western media, in reporting the pandemic?

Brazil rejects Sputnik V in rebuke on lack of data.
https://khn.org/morning-breakout/brazil ... -vaccines/

The ruling from Brazil’s Health Regulatory Agency, or Anvisa, cited a range of concerns with the vaccine’s development and production, including what it said was a lack of quality control and efficacy data, as well as little if any information on the shot’s adverse effects.

In my opinion, in a regulated industry, failure to have qualification data well presented and proof of a quality process is damning. In general, vendors hide bad information. So as one who analyses for "synthetic data" (faked test reports), I fully understand wanting more information.

Lightsaber

ThePointblank wrote:

Pfizer is working on a drug that can be taken at home at the first sign of COVID to treat the virus. They hope to have the drug ready by the end of this year:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/27/pfizer- ... -says.html

Pfizer’s experimental oral drug to treat Covid-19 at the first sign of illness could be available by the end of the year, CEO Albert Bourla told CNBC on Tuesday.

The company, which developed the first authorized Covid-19 vaccine in the U.S. with German drugmaker BioNTech, began in March an early stage clinical trial testing a new antiviral therapy for the disease. The drug is part of a class of medicines called protease inhibitors and works by inhibiting an enzyme that the virus needs to replicate in human cells.

Protease inhibitors are used to treat other viral pathogens such as HIV and hepatitis C.

If clinical trials go well and the Food and Drug Administration approves it, the drug could be distributed across the U.S. by the end of the year, Bourla told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Health experts say the drug, taken by mouth, could be a game changer because people newly infected with the virus could use it outside of hospitals. Researchers hope the medication will keep the disease from progressing and prevent hospital trips.

We have vaccines to help prevent the disease from spreading, and now it appears we have a treatment option on the horizon. It very much seems like we'll be out of this by the end of this year.

I think this is tremendous news.

I'm a big fan of oral ......
And there are those that faint at the feel of a prick ....

My daughter is very trypanophobic (but not antivax), so the oral drug is a really great development from her point of view.

On a separate note I found this in my news feed....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56913823

Pfizer 'delighted' to double supply to UK

Also in this article on same subject, breakdown of UK vaccine orders

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56921018

AZ - 100m
Pfizer - 100m
Valneva - 100m
GSK - 60m
Curevac - 60m
Jannsen - 30m
Moderna - 17m

517m doses

Rgds

One of the things driving vaccine hesitancy that if finally coming to light in the media is the complete pessimism of public health experts at least in North America saying that even if there is a high level of vaccination there will be no change to public health measures. We don't need to convince the hardcore anti-vaxxers (those who agree with RFK for example) as there are not enough of them to make a significant dent to herd immunity (if they were measles would be rampant). Furthermore arguing with those anti-vaxxers are like arguing with flat-earthers. Its hard to win an argument against a smart person but it is impossible to win one against an ignorant person.

There are a significant number of people who are dejected and don't see a benefit to getting the vaccine as their lives won't change for a period of time because that is what they are being told. I point to at the fact that while well intentioned, there is always going to be a risk of Covid and infectious disease in life and people will die from these things. If people don't want risk then don't leave the house.

Saagar Enjeti's take from yesterday's episode of rising.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nxrdj2ABHIU

From the National post in Canada.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris- ... -to-say-it

Joe Rogan should have probably not said that a healthy 21 year old should avoid the vaccine also but at least he does say he is no expert on the matter and if you listen to him you should know that. I'm about a 3rd of the way through this episode.

https://nationalpost.com/news/white-hou ... 19-vaccine

lightsaber wrote:

Brazil rejects Sputnik V in rebuke on lack of data.
https://khn.org/morning-breakout/brazil ... -vaccines/

The ruling from Brazil’s Health Regulatory Agency, or Anvisa, cited a range of concerns with the vaccine’s development and production, including what it said was a lack of quality control and efficacy data, as well as little if any information on the shot’s adverse effects.

In my opinion, in a regulated industry, failure to have qualification data well presented and proof of a quality process is damning. In general, vendors hide bad information. So as one who analyses for "synthetic data" (faked test reports), I fully understand wanting more information.

Lightsaber

Derek Lowe, in his "In The Pipeline" blog that I've been reading since undergrad has a very good post on this.

And this is a shame because the basic Gamelaya strategy (large doses of two different AdV vectors) is a solid strategy. But unfortunately, it's gotten mucked up with Putin wanting to expand his global influence through vaccine diplomacy. And also, the kinds of errors that they are finding here are elementary. I'm just amazed that anyone thought that they could cut corners like this and not get caught.

ThePointblank wrote:

Pfizer is working on a drug that can be taken at home at the first sign of COVID to treat the virus. They hope to have the drug ready by the end of this year:

It won't be a silver bullet even in the best of circumstances. It has a ton of drug interactions and needs to be given with an HIV protease inhibitor to leverage that drug interaction to increase the plastma level. The big advantage is that you don't need to give it by IV infusion. But in any acute viral infection, the viral load rises until the initial innate immune response kicks in, at which point you get sick. After that, the viral load begins to fall. Any antiviral given after the onset of symptoms will have a modest effect at best on the clinical course, although the mAb drugs have reduced severe disease by ~80%.

Then there is the issue of breadth. The target here is the 3C-like protease (3CLPro) of SARS-CoV-2. It scarcely stretches the imagination to conjecture how the virus could develop resistance. And if it works against this virus, will it work against other sarbecoviruses that might emerge in the future? How about other betacoronaviruses that might emerge? Alphacoronaviruses? I'd like to see a drug that we can have in our back pockets for the next pandemic coronavirus.

I'm more excited about molnupiravir, which is Merck's nucleoside-analog currently in study. This drug has a much more fundamental mechanism of action that has a higher barrier to resistance and should be broadly effective against all RNA viruses, so it could be used for future ebola outbreaks, influenza, and even something like Nipah, Hendra, or Lassa.

But in the end, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

astuteman wrote:

My daughter is very trypanophobic (but not antivax), so the oral drug is a really great development from her point of view.

She'll be excited about the develop of an adenovirus vectored vaccine being developed in India that will be given as a single-dose nose spray. I'm actually pretty upset that the existing adenovirus vaccines weren't given this way.

StarAC17 wrote:

One of the things driving vaccine hesitancy that if finally coming to light in the media is the complete pessimism of public health experts at least in North America saying that even if there is a high level of vaccination there will be no change to public health measures.

I agree the messaging has been terrible. If I were in charge of it, I would have made the message: "If we can exceed 65% of eligible Americans vaccinated, then we'll remove all but the highest-level measures." Between that and the existing seroprevalence, that should be enough to keep this knocked down.

That said, the CDC did say that masks were no longer necessary outdoors yesterday, which I think is a sign that they aren't going to have us restricted in ten years.

Telling folks to stay home because you do not want to spread the virus, once vaccinated you can still contract the virus and may even be able to infect others so you should still wear mask and sanitize creates confusion for those who were already on the fence.
Unfortunately, somehow someway it got out there that the vaccines were the magic bullet, now that they are becoming available the magic bullet is being walked back.
We will always have those afraid of vaccines, based on the draconian measures taken to combat Covid-19, any message that looks suspect is enough to drive hesitancy.

astuteman wrote:

I'm a big fan of oral ......
And there are those that faint at the feel of a prick ....

Fnarr fnarr!

astuteman wrote:

On a separate note I found this in my news feed....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56913823

Pfizer 'delighted' to double supply to UK

Also in this article on same subject, breakdown of UK vaccine orders

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56921018

AZ - 100m
Pfizer - 100m
Valneva - 100m
GSK - 60m
Curevac - 60m
Jannsen - 30m
Moderna - 17m

517m doses

Rgds

AZ - 100m - I don't think we'll do many more first doses. We're shortly into a second dose AZ crunch (to pay for March) and when we come out of it, we'll be onto the youngsters. And if the risk profile isn't right for them, surely not for boosters. The remaining 52m (my calc) will go to Covax or wherever.
Pfizer - 100m - by the end of July all-adults target we'll have given around 33m and commited the remaining 7m to second doses. Looks like the third order is coming Autumn?
Valneva - 100m - Early Q4 hopefully
GSK - 60m - won't happen, at least not for a long time
Curevac - 60m - we're working with them on V2, so Q1 2022
Jannsen - 30m - See AZ. These will go straight to Covax I expect, unless the clotting rate if far lower.
Moderna - 17m - By end of July should have used maybe 3 and committed another 1 so 13m remaining. Maybe more if the initial supply is worse.
You forgot poor Novavax - 60m ordered, maybe use 3m and commit another 3m, so 54m left. Arriving June, we hope (I agree with Jonas' estimate).

So after July we really have:

60m Pfizer from late Q3? Solid
100m Valneva from Q4 Tentative in as much as it hasn't done phase 3 trials yet
60m Curevac V2 Tentative
13m Moderna Solid
54m Novavax Solid-ish I mean, it could develop issues like AZ/J&J that render it not ideal for a booster. Hopefully not.
So 73m nailed on, 54m near as dammit, and another 160m fingers crossed. Anything from 1.1 dose per adult to 4.3.

The portfolio approach makes an interesting contrast with the European approach which is more single-supplier going forward. 1.8bn Pfizer - exactly enough for 4 doses for each EU citizen over 2 years.

DocLightning wrote:

astuteman wrote:

My daughter is very trypanophobic (but not antivax), so the oral drug is a really great development from her point of view.

She'll be excited about the develop of an adenovirus vectored vaccine being developed in India that will be given as a single-dose nose spray. I'm actually pretty upset that the existing adenovirus vaccines weren't given this way.

Am I the only one imagining Mike Meyers doing an Austin Powers skit to promote getting vaccinated this way?

And I agree the Sputnik V concept is a good concept. I just think trying too hard to do vaccine diplomacy resulted in too many short cuts.

Its a regulated industry, the manufacturing plan is often harder to prove how you verify you are kept to plan than actually making the stuff. But that is why so many J&J vaccines have been binned. Seriously, bad to catch quality slips at the end, but better than not catching them and that is the concern if the verification plan isn't shared. The problem is people want information before getting injected, I do not blame them.

Lightsaber

My sister is the lead doctor in a critical care coronavirus ward (she would not want me to go into where).

She is on duty tonight. No patients.

I'm also in Southern California, in Ventura County. We have our lowest COVID rate since the pandemic began. Somehow California leads the nation in low case rate and low testing positivity rate (about 1%) at the current time. Not sure how this happened, or how long it might last. Our county has 59% of those 16 and over with first dose, and 39% are fully vaccinated. There are only 2 people in the entire county of over 800K people in the ICU for COVID; yesterday there was only 1. At our peak there were 88. Let's just hope we can get a lot of the vaccine-hesitant to get a jab.

Lonza in Switzerland is to double Moderna production capacity. There are actually 3 production lines ramping up. With the installation of 3 additional lines installed capacity should rise to 600 Mio jabs/year. The 6 production lines should be all producing from the beginning of 2022.

Article in German unfortunately (and with subscription)
https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/kaeser-sol ... 5654544329

A few interesting points from the article:
Lonza has problems hiring qualified people. As a short term solution the state is trying to help with different measures, for example:

• look if they can find qualified people in state companies (for example labs) and asked other companies if the can "loan" qualified people for a few months.
• interships for PhD students from ETHZ and EPFL (the two main Swiss schools of engineering) and other academic institutions.

Lonza itself is for example looking among cheese producers if they can hire people (cheese production has high hygiene standards).

Also interesting from the article. Visp, the town were the Lonza factory is located, is a small town of 8000 habitants. Lonza was already expanding in Visp before Corona and creating new jobs. But with the Moderna production in town, a further 1200 jobs are created. This creates pressure on the existing infrastructure. There are 300 new flats being built in Visp and the population of some village/towns around Visp is increasing by over 10% yearly.
Also a lot of the new hired come with children hence childcare capacity in the region will be doubled in next years from 900 to 1800.
While not directly realeated to Covid, I thought those numbers were interesting and show some of the challenges and chances related to the vaccine production ramp up.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

lightsaber wrote:

DocLightning wrote:

astuteman wrote:

My daughter is very trypanophobic (but not antivax), so the oral drug is a really great development from her point of view.

She'll be excited about the develop of an adenovirus vectored vaccine being developed in India that will be given as a single-dose nose spray. I'm actually pretty upset that the existing adenovirus vaccines weren't given this way.

Am I the only one imagining Mike Meyers doing an Austin Powers skit to promote getting vaccinated this way?

And I agree the Sputnik V concept is a good concept. I just think trying too hard to do vaccine diplomacy resulted in too many short cuts.

Its a regulated industry, the manufacturing plan is often harder to prove how you verify you are kept to plan than actually making the stuff. But that is why so many J&J vaccines have been binned. Seriously, bad to catch quality slips at the end, but better than not catching them and that is the concern if the verification plan isn't shared. The problem is people want information before getting injected, I do not blame them.

Lightsaber

Watch Contagion, the vaccine developed in the movie was a Nasal Spray.

BaconButty wrote:

astuteman wrote:

I'm a big fan of oral ......
And there are those that faint at the feel of a prick ....

Fnarr fnarr!

astuteman wrote:

On a separate note I found this in my news feed....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56913823

Pfizer 'delighted' to double supply to UK

Also in this article on same subject, breakdown of UK vaccine orders

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56921018

AZ - 100m
Pfizer - 100m
Valneva - 100m
GSK - 60m
Curevac - 60m
Jannsen - 30m
Moderna - 17m

517m doses

Rgds

AZ - 100m - I don't think we'll do many more first doses. We're shortly into a second dose AZ crunch (to pay for March) and when we come out of it, we'll be onto the youngsters. And if the risk profile isn't right for them, surely not for boosters. The remaining 52m (my calc) will go to Covax or wherever.
Pfizer - 100m - by the end of July all-adults target we'll have given around 33m and commited the remaining 7m to second doses. Looks like the third order is coming Autumn?
Valneva - 100m - Early Q4 hopefully
GSK - 60m - won't happen, at least not for a long time
Curevac - 60m - we're working with them on V2, so Q1 2022
Jannsen - 30m - See AZ. These will go straight to Covax I expect, unless the clotting rate if far lower.
Moderna - 17m - By end of July should have used maybe 3 and committed another 1 so 13m remaining. Maybe more if the initial supply is worse.
You forgot poor Novavax - 60m ordered, maybe use 3m and commit another 3m, so 54m left. Arriving June, we hope (I agree with Jonas' estimate).

So after July we really have:

60m Pfizer from late Q3? Solid
100m Valneva from Q4 Tentative in as much as it hasn't done phase 3 trials yet
60m Curevac V2 Tentative
13m Moderna Solid
54m Novavax Solid-ish I mean, it could develop issues like AZ/J&J that render it not ideal for a booster. Hopefully not.
So 73m nailed on, 54m near as dammit, and another 160m fingers crossed. Anything from 1.1 dose per adult to 4.3.

The portfolio approach makes an interesting contrast with the European approach which is more single-supplier going forward. 1.8bn Pfizer - exactly enough for 4 doses for each EU citizen over 2 years.

What contrast? In the EU already 4 EMA approved vaccines are being used: Pfizer, AZ, Moderna and J&J. The mentioned 1.8 bn doses of Pfizer is in addition to the 2.6 billion already contracted:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans_en

Pfizer: 600 million doses (approved)
Moderna: 460 million doses (approved)
CureVac: 405 million doses (developement ongoing)
AstraZenica: 400 million dose (approved)
J&J: 400 million doses (approved)
Sanofi: 300 million (developement ongoing)

Of those 2.6 billion it’s likely AZ won’t make the 400 million mark (100 million according to AZ by the end of Q2). So worst case just over 1.5 million doses of already approved vaccines. That’s enough to protect almost 1bn people (that’s twice the EU, including non-adults).

It’s interesting that the UK is going to use the 60 million doses of Pfizer as a booster, instead of AZ.

marcelh wrote:

It’s interesting that the UK is going to use the 60 million doses of Pfizer as a booster, instead of AZ.

All first doses were not AZ, some were Pfizer, so far has there been any confirmed studies or approvals that injecting differing vaccines are as effective as single?

marcelh wrote:

It’s interesting that the UK is going to use the 60 million doses of Pfizer as a booster, instead of AZ.

Not really. If you take a rational approach to the AZ and J&J low platelet clotting issues you can determine whether to use it formulaically. The inputs are basically

• The risk of having the vaccine to the recipient (the younger, the higher)
• The risk of NOT having the vaccine (the Older the higher)
• The prevalence of the disease in your locality
• The timeframe for alternatives

This was communicated quite clearly in the UK, and it's a shame the message isn't consistent elsewhere as it would help with hesitancy.

In any case, when we get to doing boosters, the equation will have shifted to the point where AZ and J&J will not be viable in the UK and Europe too - earlier than that in fact, as you go down the age ranges. Still billions around the world for whom these vaccines are important - and there's always the possibility that they amend the purification process or something to get back in the game.

So not using adenovirus vaccines for boosters is just an extension of what we know. And Pfizer isn't the only vaccine we will be using for boosters - Novavax and Valneva will play a part too.

marcelh wrote:

What contrast? In the EU already 4 EMA approved vaccines are being used: Pfizer, AZ, Moderna and J&J. The mentioned 1.8 bn doses of Pfizer is in addition to the 2.6 billion already contracted:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans_en

Pfizer: 600 million doses (approved)
Moderna: 460 million doses (approved)
CureVac: 405 million doses (developement ongoing)
AstraZenica: 400 million dose (approved)
J&J: 400 million doses (approved)
Sanofi: 300 million (developement ongoing)

Of those 2.6 billion it’s likely AZ won’t make the 400 million mark (100 million according to AZ by the end of Q2). So worst case just over 1.5 million doses of already approved vaccines. That’s enough to protect almost 1bn people (that’s twice the EU, including non-adults).

I think you're missing my point. The way I see things there's various phases of the vaccine rollout which will be common in the developed world. Israel, for example, has already said it will give everyone 4 doses in 2021, so that takes them to phase 4. I've added speculative UK dates and vaccines:

• Phase 1: All adults I1st doses by end July, complete End Sep?
• Phase 2: Expand on Phase 1 by rolling out to children, those with comorbidities etc based on new trial data. probably Aug-Oct? using Moderna and Novavax
• Phase 3: Boosters Sep-Jan using Pfizer, Novavax and Valneva
• Phase 4: New Variant Boosters H1 2022 using Curevac V2 and Valneva?
• Phase 5: Annual Boosters Q4 2022 and annually after using some mix of Pfizer, Valneva, Curevac and Novavax - and my leftfield guess, the Imperial SARNA vaccine

Depending on timings and availability of new versions of the vaccines, Phase 3 and 4 will probably effectively merge to a point, maybe completely in the EU.

Which brings me to your point: "What contrast?"

OK, so my post was looking at later phases of the vaccine rollout. You rightly point out that the EU has ordered 2.6bn doses, but if your authorities start behaving rationally, you won't use much of your J&J and AZ, once you get past your middle aged it will be Moderna and Pfizer dominating, maybe with Curevac. Oh, and Sanofi ain't gonna happen. Assuming some diplomatically astute donations of "excess" stock then prior to the Pfizer 1.8bn order you were covered for up to Phase 3/4. After that, you go single supplier - or at least dominated by a single supplier - through 2023, two years of annual vaccinations. The Southwest of the vaccine world Good thing or bad thing? That's another debate. But it's a clear contrast with the UK at least, which as maintaining a portfolio approach for the foreseeable future.

par13del wrote:

marcelh wrote:

It’s interesting that the UK is going to use the 60 million doses of Pfizer as a booster, instead of AZ.

All first doses were not AZ, some were Pfizer, so far has there been any confirmed studies or approvals that injecting differing vaccines are as effective as single?

There are serology based studies happening in the UK looking at the following combinations:

AstraZeneca followed by AstraZeneca (control)
AstraZeneca followed by Pfizer
AstraZeneca followed by Moderna
AstraZeneca followed by Novavax
Pfizer followed by AstraZeneca
Pfizer followed by Pfizer (control)
Pfizer followed by Moderna
Pfizer followed by Novavax

Note: Jannsen/J&J notable by its absence

Sputnik V not approved by Brazil health authorities (ANVISA). In 100% of the tested charges, they have found "alive" (augmentable) Adenovirus. This is a no go. Aditional it seems they have not delivered requested safety data...for which the whole world is still waiting...
Source in German.
https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Intakte-Viren-in-Sputnik-V-gefunden-article22522232.html

And best is, the Russian producer wants to file a lawsuit against AVISA, as they are publishing incorrect data.
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/sputnik-v-hersteller-will-brasilien-wegen-einfuhrverbots-verklagen-a-7f48cf83-d2b7-4c6e-bb3d-1a8e7eebb1d3
In German.

BaconButty wrote:

Not really. If you take a rational approach to the AZ and J&J low platelet clotting issues you can determine whether to use it formulaically. The inputs are basically

• The risk of having the vaccine to the recipient (the younger, the higher)
• The risk of NOT having the vaccine (the Older the higher)
• The prevalence of the disease in your locality
• The timeframe for alternatives

I would add one point to your list

• number of people still to be vaccinated or more precisely number of people in each age bracket and risk/priority group.

I find it interesting that further down in your post you feel the need to imply an irrational behaviour by authorities in Europe when you can explain each an every step taken in Europe by exactly the rules you have given (with my additions).

1) EMA gives emergency authorization to the AZ vaccine (08.02.21). Since each member state has its own health agency it is not the role of the EMA to access "the prevalence of the disease in your locality" hence the EMA gives general clearance.

2) Since in February the EU was still in its slow vaccination ramp up, people in all risk and priority groups were still plenty (my added rule) and data on AZ's efficacy on older people wasn't fully complete, and supply of AZ just announced to fall short, health agency in member states limit use for older people and use it for health personal, cops and other essential workers with high risk of entering in contact with infected people. (Because of your rule "the timeframe for alternatives", UK is in another situation, AZ is soon the main supply while in the EU the main supply is Pfizer/BioNTech)

3) Soon after additional data was provided by AZ (and I think from the UK were AZ was in use since January). And most health agencies started to allow AZ for other persons.

4) Several death days after taking the AZ vaccine were published by European newspaper. The EMA said they would look into it, but if I remember correctly didn't recommend a pause. At this point we have again that the rule "the prevalence of the disease in your locality" is not accessed by the EMA.

5) I don't remember if some or all EU member states paused the AZ vaccine. But those that did had an alternative with Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, and since AZ deliveries varied greatly between weeks, the backlog could rapidly be vaccinated as soon as the pause was lifted. (With hindsight we see that the pause with J&J in the US was longer than with AZ in Europe).

6) The EMA looked at the data, and while they mostly gave an all-clear to the vaccine, they noticed a possible signal for are very rare side effect: TTS or later VTTS as the signal was confirmed. Again the EMA said that the risk of covid was greater than the risk of the vaccine and recomanded its use. And here again "the prevalence of the disease in your locality" is not accessed by the EMA.

7) Since the member states have alternatives with Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna ("The timeframe for alternatives") and tons of people over 55 to vaccinate (my rule) some states limit the use to over 55 or 65. (I'm not sure if some member states use it for all age groups but that could also be explained by the 5 rules)
Denmark have weathered the covid situation much better than others, hence "the prevalence of the disease in your locality" gives a much different picture from other countries in the EU. Also because the EU allowed each member state to shop within the vaccine bouquet, and some states like Bulgaria relied heavily on AZ, Denmark is oversupplied with nRNA vaccines and has only a small quantitie of AZ (The timeframe for alternatives)
Thus there decision to stop using AZ can be explained.

How things will evolve with AZ and J&J depends on many things. And regarding those two vaccines the EU has the "luxury" of time precisely because they are behind the US (for J&J) and UK (for AZ) in vaccination. With more data becoming available from those two countries, the EMA and the member states' health agency will be able to decide if using it for younger people makes sense. I assume the decision will vary between member states (because of the 5 rules) and also be influenced by the willingness of the people of those countries to take those two vaccines.

BaconButty wrote:

This was communicated quite clearly in the UK, and it's a shame the message isn't consistent elsewhere as it would help with hesitancy.

If that was communicated so clearly, I have even a harder time to understand why many in the UK press were so critical with the EU since by using those exact rules I could explain all the steps taken by the EMA and the member states' regulators.

Also I'm not sure how much was communicated in the British press. But from what I have seen from "far away" in Switzerland, the British press said with one voice: there is not more risk with AZ than with other vaccines. But when the EMA communicated its finding about VTTS the UK suddenly limited the use for AZ to those over 30 (or recommended the use of an alternative vaccine if available). As I said this perception can be wrong, since it was what I got by following from Switzerland.

BaconButty wrote:

After that, you go single supplier - or at least dominated by a single supplier - through 2023, two years of annual vaccinations. The Southwest of the vaccine world Good thing or bad thing? That's another debate. But it's a clear contrast with the UK at least, which as maintaining a portfolio approach for the foreseeable future.

I'm actually not sure if the EU vaccine shopping spree for beyond 2022 is over yet. (They might even buy some more vaccine for Q4, or look to transfer deliveries from Q3 back to Q4)
I think the EU dosen't want to relive the shamble of the slow vaccine ramp up of Q1 and I could see them buy for 22 and 23 about 600 Mio jabs of Moderna and 1 billion of CureVac. (Or about half the production capacity of mRNA vaccine avaliable in Europe).

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

BaconButty wrote:

Oh, and Sanofi ain't gonna happen.

Hi BaconButty,

I haven't read anything about that. Could you elaborate a little on that?

Always interested to learn more...

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

I found this extremely sad to read about the vaccination campaign in (Sub Saharan)-Africa.

Logistical difficulties are coupled with vaccine hesitancy. In a five-country survey published on March 9th by Afrobarometer, a pan-African pollster, an average of 60% of respondents said they were unlikely to try to get vaccinated. After starting with similar eligibility criteria to the West, most countries have expanded who can get jabbed. Strange as it may seem for a continent with so few vaccines, in many countries anyone wanting a dose can get one.

Hesitancy has several causes. A 15-country survey by Africa cdc last year found that half of respondents believed covid-19 was planned by a “foreign actor”. One-third thought that vaccine trials had killed African children. Such falsehoods spread rapidly on WhatsApp. They can also be amplified by religious leaders. In Nigeria powerful pastors such as Chris Oyakhilome have spread misinformation.

The main vaccine available to African countries has not helped. Roger Kamba, the head of the anti-covid taskforce in Congo, blames its nearly two-month delay on the need to assure people following European decisions about the AstraZeneca jab. “We are telling people to take the vaccine but they see all the time on tv that there are problems with it.”

Hesitancy also has prosaic causes. For many Africans covid-19 is simply not a big deal. Official caseloads and death tolls are relatively low. Unlike in rich countries, there is no talk of needing a vaccine to go about daily life. “I did not, at any point, deny the existence of covid-19, but what I doubt is its existence in Sierra Leone,” says Mohamed Kabia, a student in the west African country (official death toll: 79).

Source: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-a ... slow-start

BaconButty wrote:

par13del wrote:

marcelh wrote:

It’s interesting that the UK is going to use the 60 million doses of Pfizer as a booster, instead of AZ.

All first doses were not AZ, some were Pfizer, so far has there been any confirmed studies or approvals that injecting differing vaccines are as effective as single?

There are serology based studies happening in the UK looking at the following combinations:

AstraZeneca followed by AstraZeneca (control)
AstraZeneca followed by Pfizer
AstraZeneca followed by Moderna
AstraZeneca followed by Novavax
Pfizer followed by AstraZeneca
Pfizer followed by Pfizer (control)
Pfizer followed by Moderna
Pfizer followed by Novavax

Note: Jannsen/J&J notable by its absence

Glad someone is doing these studies, otherwise it is as if one is locked into iOS or Android eco-system, there is no way out after first dose.

T4thH wrote:

Sputnik V not approved by Brazil health authorities (ANVISA). In 100% of the tested charges, they have found "alive" (augmentable) Adenovirus. This is a no go. Aditional it seems they have not delivered requested safety data...for which the whole world is still waiting...
Source in German.
https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Intakte-Viren-in-Sputnik-V-gefunden-article22522232.html

And best is, the Russian producer wants to file a lawsuit against AVISA, as they are publishing incorrect data.
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/sputnik-v-hersteller-will-brasilien-wegen-einfuhrverbots-verklagen-a-7f48cf83-d2b7-4c6e-bb3d-1a8e7eebb1d3
In German.

hahaha Fighting ANVISA. Smart.

Easily one of the most challenging to deal with health authorities in the world. Nightmarish.

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

BaconButty wrote:

Oh, and Sanofi ain't gonna happen.

Hi BaconButty,

I haven't read anything about that. Could you elaborate a little on that?

Always interested to learn more...

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Well, they had to go back to the drawing board, and have still to complete the phase 2 tests. They still may deliver a vaccine in Q4, but to interest you guys - and us, we have an order for it too - it's going to have to offer something Pfizer and Moderna don't. And bear in mind those two will be offering new versions that will express the most concerning mutations in the spike protein, around the same time.

Add in the fact that the EU has just ordered 1.8bn doses of Pfizer suggests to me they have moved on. It's not 2020 any more, where there was massive overordering because you didn't know which vaccines would work, get approved and delivered. Pfizer is a known entity, efficacy, safety and delivery wise. Of course, the GSK Sanofi vaccine, if it's still a joint venture, may turn out to be the gold standard, in which case I'll be wrong. But you'll have forgotten by then

On the comments in your other post I won't defend myself as regards the lack of rationality in some EU states vaccine advice when it came to AZ. I would like to think the contrast with the response to the same situation with the Janssen vaccine would be enough. But I don't want to drag the alternative reality cesspit that is the euro thread into here, which is mostly interesting news and discussion.

However, when I was referring to clear communication, I was referring to these 3 slides that were used by Prof Van Tam to explain the rationale behind offering an alternative to AZ to under 30's. It appeared in the news outlets I frequent - the Guardian, BBC, Sky etc. Bear in mind they are for consumption by the general public, not a scientific audience, so they're not overly detailed, but they're being honest and clear about the approach. Sadly the last two have been cropped and so are missing the definition of medium and low exposure risk.

par13del wrote:

Telling folks to stay home because you do not want to spread the virus, once vaccinated you can still contract the virus and may even be able to infect others so you should still wear mask and sanitize creates confusion for those who were already on the fence.
Unfortunately, somehow someway it got out there that the vaccines were the magic bullet, now that they are becoming available the magic bullet is being walked back.
We will always have those afraid of vaccines, based on the draconian measures taken to combat Covid-19, any message that looks suspect is enough to drive hesitancy.

What are you talking about?
The vaccines in the US are 100% effective against severe COVID and death. That is the *point* of the vaccine. COVID with out "teeth".
They are ~95% effective at preventing infection. What part of 95% effective do these idiots not understand?

Here in the UK we have an influenza vaccination policy which offers a jab to people classed as being vulnerable. Vaccination begins around October. Last year (I think) that around 15 million jabs were administered, probably over a 4 month period. I hear that consideration is being given to the need for COVID-19 booster jabs to counter mutations. Is there any medical reason why the influenza and COVID-19 vaccines cannot be administered as one jab? I think that one jab is used to deliver measles, mumps and rubella vaccines.

If combined delivery of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines is medically possible, that could prove extremely useful in that it would reduce the number of jabs required by about 15 million. It would save time for all concerned and in particular would allow medics engaged in vaccination to spend more time on their normal medical business.

art wrote:

Here in the UK we have an influenza vaccination policy which offers a jab to people classed as being vulnerable. Vaccination begins around October. Last year (I think) that around 15 million jabs were administered, probably over a 4 month period. I hear that consideration is being given to the need for COVID-19 booster jabs to counter mutations. Is there any medical reason why the influenza and COVID-19 vaccines cannot be administered as one jab? I think that one jab is used to deliver measles, mumps and rubella vaccines.

If combined delivery of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines is medically possible, that could prove extremely useful in that it would reduce the number of jabs required by about 15 million. It would save time for all concerned and in particular would allow medics engaged in vaccination to spend more time on their normal medical business.

I believe at least one company is looking at developing a combined flu/covid booster shot.

Francoflier wrote:

I believe at least one company is looking at developing a combined flu/covid booster shot.

Thanks. It would be good if it were almost as simple as mixing the two vaccines together and giving the combination as one shot.

art wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

I believe at least one company is looking at developing a combined flu/covid booster shot.

Thanks. It would be good if it were almost as simple as mixing the two vaccines together and giving the combination as one shot.

Perhaps in the future it will be real. As a vaccine against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis. Although there are both "Pentaxim" and "Geksaxim", they are quite expensive. It is not a fact that flu and COVID vaccines will be combined into one drug in the near future. Still, today it is one of the most important methods of earning money for pharmaceutical companies.

T4thH wrote:

Sputnik V not approved by Brazil health authorities (ANVISA). In 100% of the tested charges, they have found "alive" (augmentable) Adenovirus. This is a no go. Aditional it seems they have not delivered requested safety data...for which the whole world is still waiting...
Source in German.
https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Intakte-Viren-in-Sputnik-V-gefunden-article22522232.html

And best is, the Russian producer wants to file a lawsuit against AVISA, as they are publishing incorrect data.
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/sputnik-v-hersteller-will-brasilien-wegen-einfuhrverbots-verklagen-a-7f48cf83-d2b7-4c6e-bb3d-1a8e7eebb1d3
In German.

Derek Lowe had this to say on the issues with reported by Brazil on Sputnik V:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... ya-vaccine

But it very much seems like in a rush to get the claim that they had the first vaccine available for COVID, the Russians made a series of errors that affect scalability of the production of the vaccine, or they haven't figured out how to scale the vaccine's production effectively.

art wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

I believe at least one company is looking at developing a combined flu/covid booster shot.

Thanks. It would be good if it were almost as simple as mixing the two vaccines together and giving the combination as one shot.

Joint jab for Covid-19 and flu could be ready next year, says top vaccine developer

Bit of background. The Imperial sarna vaccine (self amplifying RNA) was one of the two vaccine candidates the UK government could have backed last year. It went with the Oxford one as the technology was more mature. The Imperial one went through phase 1 and 2 testing last year, and were ready for phase 3 trials to commence by Christmas. They didn't start one though, figuring they'd missed the bus for the first wave. Instead they partnered with a company called Enesi to incorporate two of their technologies. One to provide heat stability, as the original had cold chain requirements similar to Pfizer's. The other to create needle free application, apparently as a solid pressed against your skin.

The reason sarna vaccines are exciting is that they build on mRna, which by my half-witted understanding involves injecting blueprints which the body then uses to build proteins similar to the coronavirus spike protein, which causes the immune response. Sarna goes a step further by tricking the body into making copies of the blueprint. This means less active vaccine material, so faster production ramp up. Which is important for annual boosters, because you're trying to guess the dominant strain that winter, and the later you can leave it before nailing that down.

Not saying the Imperial vaccine will make it to production, though I expect the UK to invest in it this year, we need to get into the RNA game. But it gives an idea where vaccines might be heading.

BaconButty wrote:

On the comments in your other post I won't defend myself as regards the lack of rationality in some EU states vaccine advice when it came to AZ. I would like to think the contrast with the response to the same situation with the Janssen vaccine would be enough. But I don't want to drag the alternative reality cesspit that is the euro thread into here, which is mostly interesting news and discussion.

“Alternative reality cesspit?” That kind of statement doesn’t add much to your credibility....

More proof, if still needed at this stage, that vaccines work:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56933756

Even one dose is enough to dramatically reduce hospitalizations for Covid, although the immune system needs a few weeks after the first shot to be 'ready'.

Francoflier wrote:

More proof, if still needed at this stage, that vaccines work:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56933756

Even one dose is enough to dramatically reduce hospitalizations for Covid, although the immune system needs a few weeks after the first shot to be 'ready'.

That the vaccines work, I think we all agree. Unfortunately a lot of people are - for one reason or another - hesitant to get vaccinated.

Vaccine motivation:
A social media report from China claim that, some schools in Beijing are now giving out badges to kids whose oarents have been vaccinated. The badge read "I am a good parent of Dongcheng. I have received Novel Coronavirus vaccine.", and the school say, those parents who have taken the vaccines are good oarents, else no matter what excuse they have, even with proof from doctor, they're bad parents.
The post comment that not sure how many will be led to think they have a bad parent
https://preview.redd.it/su89z31fu9w61.j ... 21bca38ea4

Res the town in Switzerland ramping up. Those kinds of details really flesh out what has to happen to ramp up vaccine production. I would enjoy seeing an update on that from time to time. Seattle ramped up a similar percentage 2008-2018, it is difficult, there are unexpected consequences, and what the town was is not what the town is now. It left a lot of people unhappy over the changes.

It appears Anxiety and not side effects were the driving reason for all the clinic closures at the Mass Vacination sites earlier this month.

https://www.wral.com/us-officials-anxie ... /19653972/

It was anxiety — and not a problem with the shots — that caused fainting, dizziness and other short-term reactions in dozens of people at coronavirus vaccine clinics in five states, U.S. health officials have concluded.

Experts say the clusters detailed Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are an example of a phenomenon that's been chronicled for decades from a variety of different vaccines. Basically, some people get so freaked out by injections that their anxiety spurs a physical reaction.

It can start with one person fainting that can set off a chain reaction of symptoms in anxious people who see or hear about that first person. These days, people also react to things they read or watch in Facebook posts or on other sites.

Some doctors have referred to the phenomenon as a form of mass hysteria, but MacDonald rejected the term.

“These people are not crazy," but rather are experiencing real physical responses to psychological stress, she said.

casinterest wrote:

It appears Anxiety and not side effects were the driving reason for all the clinic closures at the Mass Vacination sites earlier this month.

https://www.wral.com/us-officials-anxie ... /19653972/

It was anxiety — and not a problem with the shots — that caused fainting, dizziness and other short-term reactions in dozens of people at coronavirus vaccine clinics in five states, U.S. health officials have concluded.

Experts say the clusters detailed Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are an example of a phenomenon that's been chronicled for decades from a variety of different vaccines. Basically, some people get so freaked out by injections that their anxiety spurs a physical reaction.

It can start with one person fainting that can set off a chain reaction of symptoms in anxious people who see or hear about that first person. These days, people also react to things they read or watch in Facebook posts or on other sites.

Some doctors have referred to the phenomenon as a form of mass hysteria, but MacDonald rejected the term.

“These people are not crazy," but rather are experiencing real physical responses to psychological stress, she said.

Yes the nocebo and placebo effects are really unbelivable.

T4thH wrote:

casinterest wrote:

It appears Anxiety and not side effects were the driving reason for all the clinic closures at the Mass Vacination sites earlier this month.

https://www.wral.com/us-officials-anxie ... /19653972/

It was anxiety — and not a problem with the shots — that caused fainting, dizziness and other short-term reactions in dozens of people at coronavirus vaccine clinics in five states, U.S. health officials have concluded.

Experts say the clusters detailed Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are an example of a phenomenon that's been chronicled for decades from a variety of different vaccines. Basically, some people get so freaked out by injections that their anxiety spurs a physical reaction.

It can start with one person fainting that can set off a chain reaction of symptoms in anxious people who see or hear about that first person. These days, people also react to things they read or watch in Facebook posts or on other sites.

Some doctors have referred to the phenomenon as a form of mass hysteria, but MacDonald rejected the term.

“These people are not crazy," but rather are experiencing real physical responses to psychological stress, she said.

Yes the nocebo and placebo effects are really unbelivable.

I know people that get this nervous though. It is really interesting effect. But we need this vaccine. Especially after seeing what is occurring in India

We have a lot of states opening up masking restrictions, and without enough vaccinated, we will still see a lot of sickness and death.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/ccd6b ... c571692405
Japan: Among 4.7 million medical eorkers, who are priority vaccine group in Japan, only 20% have finished the two-dose vaccination by the end of April. Number of medical workers finished forst dose vaccination varies between 31-62% across different prefectures, with Tokyo having only 41% and Osaka only 39% medical workers vaccinated. Nationwide, the percentage of medical workers received first dose of vaccine is 50%.
Delay and shortage in vaccine supply is being cited as main reason for the slow vaccination process. By now the number of vaccine delivered finally reached 4.24 million, up from Early January's 1.44 million, but it'd need to wait till mid May for all 9.4 million vaccines supply for two dose injection for medical workers to be delivered, according to current estimate.
There are also some chaos that the Japanese government have started vaccinating elderly despite haven't vaccinated all medical workers, as it was planmed that vaccinated medical workers will help vaccinate the elderly, but the current situation have caused unvaccinated medical workers help giving vaccines to elderly and creating concern among medical workers.
The national government say local government can flexibly adopt vaccine for elderlies to use them to vaccinate medical workers first

par13del wrote:

Telling folks to stay home because you do not want to spread the virus, once vaccinated you can still contract the virus and may even be able to infect others so you should still wear mask and sanitize creates confusion for those who were already on the fence.
Unfortunately, somehow someway it got out there that the vaccines were the magic bullet, now that they are becoming available the magic bullet is being walked back.
We will always have those afraid of vaccines, based on the draconian measures taken to combat Covid-19, any message that looks suspect is enough to drive hesitancy.

There are legitimate concerns as the vaccines were rushed and are not fully approved.
The concerns are long-term side effects, such as developing new allergies, loss of fertility, birth defects, auto-immune disease and cancer.
These vaccines have never been in a human body for longer than a year and some are showing unexpected side effects and have been suspended on and off.
As much as hesitancy may appear foolish, ignoring long-term risks is as foolish if not more so, especially considering Covid-19's relatively low fatality rate compared to diseases like Ebola.

Most governments have failed at containing Covid-19 in its early stages and thereafter.
With many activities closed, the main drivers for Covid-19 cases are group activities, including but not limited to schools.
Some governments are stubbornly keeping schools open.
Expecting citizens to make up for failure to govern is frankly ridiculous.

Inciting people to get vaccinated, or worse, insulting those who don't want to be part of this make-up-for-failures scheme, is in my opinion egotism in its purest form.

The optimistic views expressed previously by the same persons now advocating vaccine uptake turned out very wrong.
Among them, that Covid-19 would mutate into weaker variants "because of it evolutive nature".
Those same persons, instead of eating some humble pie, are now expressing the optimistic view that the vaccines pose no threat whatsoever and are the way out of this crisis.

As hesitancy numbers prove, not everyone is ready to be a guinea pig to help their government save face.
Expecting that everyone would be eager and not hesitant may have been the first overly optimistic assumption and demonstrates lack of understanding of human psychology and behavior.
In my opinion, these sand castles of optimism are what's causing unnecessary deaths and delaying resolution.

To exit the crisis, we all need to face reality, starting from the top.
People advocating for optimistic solutions, while probably doing so with the best intentions, should look themselves in the mirror and ask if they're not part of the problem.

CaptainHaresh wrote:

par13del wrote:

Telling folks to stay home because you do not want to spread the virus, once vaccinated you can still contract the virus and may even be able to infect others so you should still wear mask and sanitize creates confusion for those who were already on the fence.
Unfortunately, somehow someway it got out there that the vaccines were the magic bullet, now that they are becoming available the magic bullet is being walked back.
We will always have those afraid of vaccines, based on the draconian measures taken to combat Covid-19, any message that looks suspect is enough to drive hesitancy.

There are legitimate concerns as the vaccines were rushed and are not fully approved.
The concerns are long-term side effects, such as developing new allergies, loss of fertility, birth defects, auto-immune disease and cancer.
These vaccines have never been in a human body for longer than a year and some are showing unexpected side effects and have been suspended on and off.
As much as hesitancy may appear foolish, ignoring long-term risks is as foolish if not more so, especially considering Covid-19's relatively low fatality rate compared to diseases like Ebola.

Most governments have failed at containing Covid-19 in its early stages and thereafter.
With many activities closed, the main drivers for Covid-19 cases are group activities, including but not limited to schools.
Some governments are stubbornly keeping schools open.
Expecting citizens to make up for failure to govern is frankly ridiculous.

Inciting people to get vaccinated, or worse, insulting those who don't want to be part of this make-up-for-failures scheme, is in my opinion egotism in its purest form.

The optimistic views expressed previously by the same persons now advocating vaccine uptake turned out very wrong.
Among them, that Covid-19 would mutate into weaker variants "because of it evolutive nature".
Those same persons, instead of eating some humble pie, are now expressing the optimistic view that the vaccines pose no threat whatsoever and are the way out of this crisis.

As hesitancy numbers prove, not everyone is ready to be a guinea pig to help their government save face.
Expecting that everyone would be eager and not hesitant may have been the first overly optimistic assumption and demonstrates lack of understanding of human psychology and behavior.
In my opinion, these sand castles of optimism are what's causing unnecessary deaths and delaying resolution.

To exit the crisis, we all need to face reality, starting from the top.
People advocating for optimistic solutions, while probably doing so with the best intentions, should look themselves in the mirror and ask if they're not part of the problem.

Any link to back up your claims? If not you are spreading fake news and fake content..

People forget the SARS outbreak of 2004, the MERS, etc. Coronaviruses aren’t new and vaccines and studies for these viruses have been done for decades now.
Check out this article from January 2020. Already Moderna was developing the vaccine. Technology and Science are not the same as 80 years ago when Vaccines took years while they were developed. People really really need to start looking more at a real mass cognitive dissonance outbreak and less at a vaccine literally developed to move on from this hell. I have very little faith in humanity nowadays, ironically, more in the “developed” world than elsewhere...

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... oronavirus