COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

T4thH · Tue Mar 30, 2021 4:36 pm

c933103 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
According yesterday German TV, there seems now to be more and more cases of very young patients with "Long Covid" symptoms. It seems that 15% of patients/children, who have had COVID-19 (also without symptoms) later on have some "Long Covid" symptoms now. It is not fully clarified, if these were real "long Covid" symptoms or in part also issues regarding "lockdown" e.g.
There was also interviews with one case of a German women national basketball team (U 16) member, who is now not even able to perform the normal live regarding fatigue (and we are not talking about of any form of sport) of "long Covid".
As seen yesterday on TV, no written source available.

Another story; one of my work colleges has had serious COVID 19 over Christmas time. She is really young, has always performed sport e.g. She has had a sport accident 2 years ago, has had a surgery (the next one) regarding this one and was in a recovery clinic, when she got serious ill with COVID 19, interestingly without any problems with her lung. .But she was not able to move for around 10 days (she could not even sit in her bed for around ten days, this was already too much) and has had a serious "neuro covid" symptoms, full package.

She has now the typical "long covid" symptoms, fatigue (bad but not so bad as others), but still really bad: "neuro Covid" symptoms. She has now a more or less complete "short-term memory loss", next to fatigue and partial hearing loss, these were the worst one of her up to date symptoms.
She was recently working for around two weeks in her job again and is now for long time in the next recovery clinic, now for her long Covid symptoms.
In these two weeks. she was working....she has made many mistakes.
I fear not to see her ever again in her job, because she is just not any more able to do it.

Could this be related to some mutations that we haven't been paying attentions on?

First, in Germany the UK Covid strain is now the regular identified strain. Already around one week ago, around 75% of all new identified cases were reagarding the UK strain. So now, it will be even more worse. All other strains (like the Brasil strain) have no importance.
Regarding long Covid cases in children; these were 3 month or 6 month results. so no, for these results, the original strain was responsible as there were no UK strain cases in German >3 month ago.
It is known and has been also shown in Germany now, the UK strain is more dangerous, more letal e.g. This is also the reason why we see more and more cases of younger people in German intensive care units.
And it is also more dangerous for children.

c933103 · Tue Mar 30, 2021 6:51 pm

T4thH wrote:
c933103 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
According yesterday German TV, there seems now to be more and more cases of very young patients with "Long Covid" symptoms. It seems that 15% of patients/children, who have had COVID-19 (also without symptoms) later on have some "Long Covid" symptoms now. It is not fully clarified, if these were real "long Covid" symptoms or in part also issues regarding "lockdown" e.g.
There was also interviews with one case of a German women national basketball team (U 16) member, who is now not even able to perform the normal live regarding fatigue (and we are not talking about of any form of sport) of "long Covid".
As seen yesterday on TV, no written source available.

Another story; one of my work colleges has had serious COVID 19 over Christmas time. She is really young, has always performed sport e.g. She has had a sport accident 2 years ago, has had a surgery (the next one) regarding this one and was in a recovery clinic, when she got serious ill with COVID 19, interestingly without any problems with her lung. .But she was not able to move for around 10 days (she could not even sit in her bed for around ten days, this was already too much) and has had a serious "neuro covid" symptoms, full package.

She has now the typical "long covid" symptoms, fatigue (bad but not so bad as others), but still really bad: "neuro Covid" symptoms. She has now a more or less complete "short-term memory loss", next to fatigue and partial hearing loss, these were the worst one of her up to date symptoms.
She was recently working for around two weeks in her job again and is now for long time in the next recovery clinic, now for her long Covid symptoms.
In these two weeks. she was working....she has made many mistakes.
I fear not to see her ever again in her job, because she is just not any more able to do it.

Could this be related to some mutations that we haven't been paying attentions on?

First, in Germany the UK Covid strain is now the regular identified strain. Already around one week ago, around 75% of all new identified cases were reagarding the UK strain. So now, it will be even more worse. All other strains (like the Brasil strain) have no importance.
Regarding long Covid cases in children; these were 3 month or 6 month results. so no, for these results, the original strain was responsible as there were no UK strain cases in German >3 month ago.
It is known and has been also shown in Germany now, the UK strain is more dangerous, more letal e.g. This is also the reason why we see more and more cases of younger people in German intensive care units.
And it is also more dangerous for children.

Thing is, when we say a strain, it's just like a family, viruses in each of them would still continue to mutate and may evolve to develop new feature, for example there are now some report in UK that this some of the people with this strain now have a E484K mutation in vtheir virus despite this strain usually doesn't feature E484K.
Second, each strain have dozens of mutation. We usually only focus on the like of E484K and N501Y since those affect the virus's spike protein receptor binding domain. Hence they could affect the virus' property in binding with cells or for the immune system to react against it. But there are also other mutations. I don't think we can really tell which cause which n9w mow that we don't even really know how the virus cause these long term damages and thus it would be hard to find out which is responsible for what, according to my understanding

DocLightning · Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:27 pm

T4thH wrote:
According yesterday German TV, there seems now to be more and more cases of very young patients with "Long Covid" symptoms. It seems that 15% of patients/children, who have had COVID-19 (also without symptoms) later on have some "Long Covid" symptoms now. It is not fully clarified, if these were real "long Covid" symptoms or in part also issues regarding "lockdown" e.g.
There was also interviews with one case of a German women national basketball team (U 16) member, who is now not even able to perform the normal live regarding fatigue (and we are not talking about of any form of sport) of "long Covid".

My suspicion is that the prevalence of Long COVID is probably overstated by the estimates because such preliminary estimates suffer from the twin issues of underreporting of the true prevalence of COVID-19 and likely oversampling of people with Long COVID symptoms.

That said, it is a very real entity. Yesterday, I saw my first pediatric case of Long COVID. In this patient's case, she is a teenager COVID a few months ago and now has anosmia (inability to smell) and dysgeusia (a sense of altered taste in which normal foods taste bitter or rotten). She is losing weight (about 3kg in as many months) because she cannot tolerate the taste of even her favorite foods. I don't have much to offer her, unfortunately. She's one of the lucky ones because that's her only symptom. Many other patients with Long COVID have difficulty even standing or talking.

It's something to keep in mind when people talk about how young people have very low risk of death. That may be true, but there are other bad things that can happen to you that aren't death.

Toenga · Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:07 pm

Thanks to those making knowledgeable and rational contributions to this thread, largely free from dramatisation, and nationalistic chest thumping.
A good thread.

CaptainHaresh · Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:43 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Israel daily cases and deaths continue to plummet!
I noted they dropped from the #25 ranked country in 2021 to #27 in terms of total number of infections. Ok, not a big deal, but I'm curious where their ranking will end up.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

I hope they can reverse their plummet in vaccination rates per day, alas, I suspect that will only change when the vaccine is approved for children:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Unfortunately, when you look at global daily new cases, there is no question, the 4th wave is well established:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The E484K variants looks to be gaining traction (prior exposure provides far less immunity). Wow... it is taking a lot of effort to track these new variants:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... -York.aspx

The E484K mutation has been previously identified in other variants of concern — such as B.1.351 and P.1 — and has been implicated in variants’ improved transmissibility and ability to cause severe infection. The mutation has also been known to be resistant to neutralizing antibodies.

That said, all the Western vaccines (upthread) seem to at least prevent hospitalization.

The UK has a steady case load of about 5500 new cases a day. France is in a tough spot (7 day average just broke 36k) and I wish them well to reverse this issue:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

yonahleung wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Vaccine certification is very conservative. They were not doing mass vaccines. The mRNA performed closely to the predictions of the only vaccine expert I socialize with, who was focused purely on influenza applications.

The others have been exceptional. I cannot explain why J&J or AZ are as successful as they are. My... bias would have predicted otherwise. Thankfully the wise decision was made to support two of every type of vaccine and... it wasn't one set. The UK set and US set have overlap and their own candidates (e.g. UK didn't sponsor Moderna, but just bought some later, the US didn't sponsor CureVac or Valneva, the UK did).

However, I avoided the vaccines that... do not seem to be effecting disease propogation sufficiently. e.g., something is wrong with caseload in the UAE and Chile vs. vaccine rates. Now here I have to council myself that vaccines take time to work. Well just say two vaccines concern me.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

I like to create models. If I assume all vaccinations in the UK are AZ and all in Israel are Pfizer, I can show well enough to convince myself the UK is trending as did Israel, just with a fractionally less effective Vaccine (AZ is doing better than the ratio of effectiveness). e.g., I can model them identically for virus propogation just assuming a few less UK residents are vaccinated than reality.

When I apply this to the UAE, boink... The vaccine effectiveness is much less than the ratio of effectivity published. Chile is so early in the vaccine program, I question the time to effectiveness but also vaccine effectiveness.

So some might be luck.

Lightsaber

It may be luck. Or someone is cooking the numbers.

What do you mean by "cooking the numbers?" Most nations report excess deaths. With the US numbers falling, all is well.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

I had links on this a few pages back upthread:
Now, the UK data lags (instead of being revised up), so I cannot compare the downslide, but in 3 or 4 months, we can, so they cannot hide cooked numbers. Since the prior UK excess deaths are accounted for in Covid19 deaths, their numbers haven't been off a bit and therefor should be believed.
Brazil's excess deaths also perfectly account for all Covid19 deaths, they will correct deaths a bit later to ensure accuracy.

In the UK and Israel, the reduction in cases cannot be explained other than by the vaccination drive.
Brazil hasn't vaccinated enough to know (until the vaccination rate breaks a third of the population, it just doesn't dilute the spread enough to matter).
The UAE has administered 80.48 doses per hundred. With a 7 day running average of new cases above 2,000, they are not doing as well as Israel did for the same level of vaccination and since they have vaccinated more than the UK, they have unfortunately become a case study in vaccine effectiveness (80.48 doses per hundred in UAE vs. UK's 48.64 doses per hundred).

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -emirates/

Of course we need to wait for a higher fraction, but AZ seems to be punching above its effectivity.
Pfizer is definitely as good as effectivity as all the various links I posted upthread show. Due to the preponderance of evidence already shown in the thread, that shouldn't be in doubt.

We will have to see on Chile and the UAE. There are some countries I question the data. In the case of the UAE, they need to open up for travel and the data trend is the opposite of if the data were to be manipulated, so the first cut says trust the data if bad.

So all indications are all the Western vaccines are doing really well. I'd like to see more data on Covaxin. I just haven't seen enough data to make an opinion on real world effectiveness (vs. test efficacy).

I personally wonder at all the trashing of AZ when the real world data is showing its vaccine is pretty darn amazing. Considering the UK is in the cross hairs of the B.1.1.7 blight, this is very impressive.

Part of this is we need to figure out which vaccines work the best.
I like NovaVax's idea of vaccinating the control group with another vaccine and the test group with NovaVax. That seems incredibly fair to me (I posted the link just a few posts ago).

LIghtsaber

Israel s cases have indeed fallen off the cliff.
It was later than expected but it has happened.
With temperatures rising next week, they should be able to keep cases under control despite a slowing vaccination campaign.

It will be interesting to see if they can maintain these low levels nevertheless.

Any spike, any new wave and we have to rethink the whole thing.

I can’t help but feel that this whole chaos has been staged. Politicians have done bad faith things to worsen the crisis and the vaccines were ready too easily and too soon.
Bilderberg billionaires are dying weeks apart in apparent helicopter accidents.
It all looks random but maybe it’s all connected.

lightsaber · Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:40 pm

DocLightning wrote:
T4thH wrote:
According yesterday German TV, there seems now to be more and more cases of very young patients with "Long Covid" symptoms. It seems that 15% of patients/children, who have had COVID-19 (also without symptoms) later on have some "Long Covid" symptoms now. It is not fully clarified, if these were real "long Covid" symptoms or in part also issues regarding "lockdown" e.g.
There was also interviews with one case of a German women national basketball team (U 16) member, who is now not even able to perform the normal live regarding fatigue (and we are not talking about of any form of sport) of "long Covid".

My suspicion is that the prevalence of Long COVID is probably overstated by the estimates because such preliminary estimates suffer from the twin issues of underreporting of the true prevalence of COVID-19 and likely oversampling of people with Long COVID symptoms.

That said, it is a very real entity. Yesterday, I saw my first pediatric case of Long COVID. In this patient's case, she is a teenager COVID a few months ago and now has anosmia (inability to smell) and dysgeusia (a sense of altered taste in which normal foods taste bitter or rotten). She is losing weight (about 3kg in as many months) because she cannot tolerate the taste of even her favorite foods. I don't have much to offer her, unfortunately. She's one of the lucky ones because that's her only symptom. Many other patients with Long COVID have difficulty even standing or talking.

It's something to keep in mind when people talk about how young people have very low risk of death. That may be true, but there are other bad things that can happen to you that aren't death.

My sister, a doctor in a coronavirus ward, lost an ex-patient to long Covid symptoms (Tinnitus) not long ago. No, not the one that made the papers...

I don't know if being unable to smell food counts as anosmia (I can smell chemicals like bleach, the artificial pinesol smell, detergents). I feel for your patient. Sigh, I used to have too sensitive of a sense if smell....

I regained most of my sense of taste. But not animal fat (but I can taste vegitible oil), so cakes, cookies, butter, lamb, donuts, and many other previously wonderful foods, have no appeal.

So I feel for your patient. We need vaccine to stop issues.

Lightsaber

Derico · Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:18 am

lightsaber wrote:
Derico wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I

We will have to see on Chile and the UAE. There are some countries I question the data. In the case of the UAE, they need to open up for travel and the data trend is the opposite of if the data were to be manipulated, so the first cut says trust the data if bad.

So all indications are all the Western vaccines are doing really well. I'd like to see more data on Covaxin. I just haven't seen enough data to make an opinion on real world effectiveness (vs. test efficacy).

LIghtsaber

Why do you question data precisely from those countries, I am curious?

I am an analyst taught to always due sanity checks on data. So I do not question data from those two countries. The fact there date is showing poor trends vs. vaccine rates is showing honest data. So trust the data.

I always look at motivation. The UAE in particular wants to open up, hence the high vaccination rate. However, the cases per day is very high for a country with a population of 9.77 million vs. Israel's 9.05 million. So we can compare the two countries directly. Israel's infection rate is now 480 people today. Considering how many people refuse vaccines, that is impressively good showing that vaccines do indeed provide a herd immunity.

The UAE should have enough vaccine to really slow the virus out there, but instead has an infection rate of 2121 individuals per day. Now, Israel at a similar level of vaccination had just about 4.1k cases per day, so perhaps the vaccine is working, but I notice cases going up.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -emirates/
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... US~MEX~CHL
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

What I question is the effectiveness of the vaccines they are being distributed in Chile and the UAE. The UK has a lower vaccination rate than Chile with more effect.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

One must ask why. I can be where each country is during the current wave (UK is coming off the last wave, Chile is going into the next wave).
But it also could be vaccine effectiveness...
I want to know. So far, the data from the UAE and Chile indicate the vaccine is less effective than AZ or Pfizer.

Lightsaber

Ok, thank you for your kind time for the clarification. I think it is clear some vaccines have more punch than others.

DIRECTFLT · Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:23 am

Rep. Jim Jordan of Texas asks:
Will you need to show your vaccine passport to vote?
2:57 PM · Mar 30, 2021

https://twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1 ... 21761?s=20

Francoflier · Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:07 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:
Rep. Jim Jordan of Texas asks:
Will you need to show your vaccine passport to vote?
2:57 PM · Mar 30, 2021

https://twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1 ... 21761?s=20

GOP: "You need valid and very specific form of ID, which you may or may not easily obtain, and which lots of people happen to not have, to exercise your constitutional right to vote."
Also GOP: "A vaccine passport is the mark of the beast! REEEEEEE!"

lightsaber · Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:42 pm

Australia has approved an AZ production plant!!!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-21/ ... /100020186

Australia's medical regulator has approved the domestic production of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, with the first batches expected to be released "in the next few days."

This is great news. :hyper:

Ok, I missed this factory was about ready. :spin:

I know Japan is ramping up AZ:
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20 ... bu/089000c

So will Brazil, in July:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2B72IU

I know AZ submitted amended paper in the USA and we are sitting on doses.
https://news.yahoo.com/wh-says-holding- ... 49883.html

Were any doses actually "loaned" out?

Lightsaber

hbernal1 · Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:54 pm

I'm getting my first dose of Pfizer this Friday. Had to wait 2-3 weeks to find an appointment, but my journey to being fully vaccinated can finally start. Fingers crossed my appointment doesn't get canceled.

dtw2hyd · Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:20 pm

Any thoughts on lack of centralized scheduling impact on rollout. Everyone I know who is eligible booked through multiple providers like CVS, Rite Aid, Meijer, Beaumont Hospital system. How are they going plan one person is booking through five places.

lightsaber · Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:03 am

Single dose of AZ and Pfizer, in care homes (elderly) was 62% effective in preventing symptoms after 5 weeks:
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03- ... ovid-.html
It found that a single vaccine dose was effective at preventing 56% of infections after four weeks, rising to 62% of infections after five weeks. Looking at the Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines separately, they found that the timing and size of the protective effect was similar for both vaccines.

The study looked at PCR test result data for 10,412 long-term care home residents from 310 care homes. The residents were all over the age of 65, and had routine monthly PCR tests as well as further targeted tests if an outbreak was suspected. The data included a total of 36,352 PCR results, of which 1,335 were positive.

This link has more details of the study:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... dents.aspx

Bad news: the effect of vaccination was observed to be significant only after 28-34 days. This was for both vaccines (although, please note this is for a very elderly population, so we would expect a slower immune response). All points to a need to vaccinate early and put in a time delay between vaccination and effect (I need to remind myself of this when looking at the UAE and Chile data...).

So as this wave comes through, we need to compare how many cases of vaccine 2 to 4 weeks ago and not currently jabbed.

Lightsaber

flyingclrs727 · Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:33 am

Francoflier wrote:

GOP: "You need valid and very specific form of ID, which you may or may not easily obtain, and which lots of people happen to not have, to exercise your constitutional right to vote."
Also GOP: "A vaccine passport is the mark of the beast! REEEEEEE!"

It's total garbage that ID's are hard to get. I often work as an election judge or alternate judge. Texas has free voter ID's available. I have never seen one of them. Why? People have lots of needs to show photo ID's. Try buying alcoholic beverages, looking at an apartment or house, boarding aircraft, opening a bank account, going to a doctor's office, entering a secure government building, etc. without a valid photo ID.

lightsaber · Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:43 am

J&J had a vendor ruin 15 million doses by not reading the recipie correctly:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/johns ... NewsSearch

That would be a nice addition right before the next wave.
I still haven't heard why J&J's production (in house) produced 3.9 million doses and then only 350k in 4 weeks (I posted links early in the thread). Catalent is doing well. The botched vendor is Emergent BioSolutions. That means most of the current US production capacity isn't producing for J&J.

J&J, like AZ, is supposed to be one of the very high volume vaccines. One reason I am so cynical about vaccine rollout schedules as I've yet to see one of the high volume (tens of millions per month) exceeded. In this race to innoculate, we need hundreds of millions of doses per month and the goals stated 4+ months ago never seem to be met. That, in my opinion, puts future production goals and thus when people are vaccinated, in question.

I'm excited about new production coming online as that means more people are vaccinated early. :hyper:

(e.g., I posted about Australia's AZ factory above, Pfizer's new EU capacity, Moderna's new EU capacity, IDT and Sanofi for J&J). So I'll be the opposite emotion when a factory cannot deliver.

Lightsaber

hbernal1 · Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
J&J had a vendor ruin 15 million doses by not reading the recipie correctly:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/johns ... NewsSearch

That would be a nice addition right before the next wave.
I still haven't heard why J&J's production (in house) produced 3.9 million doses and then only 350k in 4 weeks (I posted links early in the thread). Catalent is doing well. The botched vendor is Emergent BioSolutions. That means most of the current US production capacity isn't producing for J&J.

J&J, like AZ, is supposed to be one of the very high volume vaccines. One reason I am so cynical about vaccine rollout schedules as I've yet to see one of the high volume (tens of millions per month) exceeded. In this race to innoculate, we need hundreds of millions of doses per month and the goals stated 4+ months ago never seem to be met. That, in my opinion, puts future production goals and thus when people are vaccinated, in question.

I'm excited about new production coming online as that means more people are vaccinated early. (e.g., I posted about Australia's AZ factory above, Pfizer's new EU capacity, Moderna's new EU capacity, IDT and Sanofi for J&J). So I'll be the opposite emotion when a factory cannot deliver.

Lightsaber

We do, however, seem to be on track (at least in the U.S.) to meet Biden's stated 200 million doses in 100 days. It's a shame the doses were spoiled because they could've been deployed to quickly get shots in arms and tame what can look like an ugly B117 surge (at least in a handful of states). The Western states seem to not be having a massive B117 problem yet.

AirbusCheerlead · Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:27 pm

Pfizer & BioNTech once more rised target for 2021: now 2.5 billion jabs instead of 2.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... lion-doses

lightsaber · Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:21 pm

Pfizer reporting strong results kids age 12-15. Not one symptomatic infection:
https://www.popsci.com/story/health/pfi ... -covid-19/

I hope children are approved soon.

c933103 · Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:21 pm

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 210401.htm
Pfizer/Biontech vaccine supplied to Hong Kong experienced packaging failure, according to expert it is because the distributor, China's Fuxing group, have its own priduction line that used a sort of metal cap which have lost elasticity in low temperature and thus resulting in leakage

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 210401.htm
They claim, despite leakage, the million of delivered vaccines were places in ultra low temperature and thus they think chance of bacteria contamination is very low, on the other hand the Hong Kong government will hold them up until final report released

lightsaber · Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:32 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
J&J had a vendor ruin 15 million doses by not reading the recipie correctly:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/johns ... NewsSearch

That would be a nice addition right before the next wave.
I still haven't heard why J&J's production (in house) produced 3.9 million doses and then only 350k in 4 weeks (I posted links early in the thread). Catalent is doing well. The botched vendor is Emergent BioSolutions. That means most of the current US production capacity isn't producing for J&J.

J&J, like AZ, is supposed to be one of the very high volume vaccines. One reason I am so cynical about vaccine rollout schedules as I've yet to see one of the high volume (tens of millions per month) exceeded. In this race to innoculate, we need hundreds of millions of doses per month and the goals stated 4+ months ago never seem to be met. That, in my opinion, puts future production goals and thus when people are vaccinated, in question.

I'm excited about new production coming online as that means more people are vaccinated early. (e.g., I posted about Australia's AZ factory above, Pfizer's new EU capacity, Moderna's new EU capacity, IDT and Sanofi for J&J). So I'll be the opposite emotion when a factory cannot deliver.

Lightsaber

We do, however, seem to be on track (at least in the U.S.) to meet Biden's stated 200 million doses in 100 days. It's a shame the doses were spoiled because they could've been deployed to quickly get shots in arms and tame what can look like an ugly B117 surge (at least in a handful of states). The Western states seem to not be having a massive B117 problem yet.

I set out to seek the truth of your statement and you were correct: 83% of New Jersey is B.1.1.7, what I consider the epicenter of the US 4th wave . 13% of New Jersey's cases the New York B.1.526.

Thankfully, we track variants in California surprisingly well:
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DC ... iants.aspx

As of March 24, 2021

Variant Number of Cases Caused by Variant
B.1.1.7 474 (UK)
B.1.351 4 (South African)
P.1 6 (Brazil)
B.1.427 2,830 (California)
B.1.429 5,970 (California)
B.1.526 31 (New York)
B.1.525 3
P.2 22

Or just over 1.7% the B.1.1.7
We were just whacked by the two California variants. 8,800 out of 27,461 or 32%. These are moving East. I'll never know what infected myself.

Another site for California data:
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california

New Jersey had identified 686 cases involving variants as of Tuesday, but officials expect the true number to be far higher. New Jersey doesn't have the lab capacity to test many COVID samples for variants.

The most widespread variant by far in New Jersey is the one that first appeared in the United Kingdom, called B.1.1.7, with 569 known cases. That's followed by the New York variant, or B.1.526, with 100 identified cases so far. New Jersey also has a handful of cases of the variants that first appeared in Brazil, South Africa and California.

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/ ... 814666001/

The quick answer is to get as many vaccinated as soon as possible. I naturally want both my kids vaccinated too.

Lightsaber

Aesma · Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:09 am

I don't know if already discussed, but very interesting article about the thrombosis side effect of the AZ vaccine : https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03 ... 19-vaccine

Treatment if it happens is blood thinners and immunoglobulin, so I'm still thinking a preventative dose of aspirin for a couple of weeks after having taken the vaccine (if there is no contra indication of course) could be helpful. From what I can see aspirin acts on the ability of platelets to form clots, which is what we would want.

I'm too young to get the AZ vaccine in theory in France, however I'm on my doctor's list to take any leftover dose, since I live next to his office, so I might get it any day.

lightsaber · Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:24 pm

Survey continued: 30 clots out of 18.1 million vaccines.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2BO6Y0

That is a trivial number versus the lives the vaccine is obviously saving. Compare the now open UK versus other countries (cases please, deaths are so emotional):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Considering how many in the UK had AZ, I'm just not able to take the panic seriously.

One death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic - J. Stalin

Really the only concerns with AZ are production levels and resistance vs. variants, but we already discussed a booster for AZ (in testing). That booster is one reason I am very excited about AZ as a vaccine.

Aesma wrote:
I don't know if already discussed, but very interesting article about the thrombosis side effect of the AZ vaccine : https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03 ... 19-vaccine

Treatment if it happens is blood thinners and immunoglobulin, so I'm still thinking a preventative dose of aspirin for a couple of weeks after having taken the vaccine (if there is no contra indication of course) could be helpful. From what I can see aspirin acts on the ability of platelets to form clots, which is what we would want.

I'm too young to get the AZ vaccine in theory in France, however I'm on my doctor's list to take any leftover dose, since I live next to his office, so I might get it any day.

With coronavirus, there is a huge risk of clots. My doctors were adamant I walk 7,000+ steps every day to avoid "negative outcomes." I have now been vaccinated (1st dose) and the same doctors gave the same advice except to emphasize to walk before and after the vaccine and walk every day 7k+ steps to avoid issues with any vaccine.

OMG, what a 5 hour headache... 1st dose symptoms have been horrible among my relatives if they previously had Covid19. The walk and to drink a huge amount of icewater was the solution to side effects. It doesn't seem to matter which of the US approved vaccines.

Lightsaber

lightsaber · Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:14 pm

J&J to deliver 24 million doses to USA in April:
https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/jo ... on-issues/

Well... as the old saying, "better than a poke in the eye."

I swear, I am becoming more cynical on vaccine production every week. I keep hoping that J&J would boost this chart, but it always seems to be soon:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... untry=~USA

The next wave is hitting parts of the USA. We've already discussed the high B.1.1.7 prevalence in NJ. The data on a per capita
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ew-jersey/

The cases per million per day are 521 (7-day avg) vs. say France 577. Interesting which one is talked about.

There will not be enough vaccine out in time to meaningfully slow this wave.

Michigan and Illinois are hotspots too. :cry2

Lightsaber

mercure1 · Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:53 pm

Chile will enter one-month lockdown and border closure mode as cases spike even with 35% of population vaccinated

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... BO630?il=0

lightsaber · Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:17 pm

mercure1 wrote:
Chile will enter one-month lockdown and border closure mode as cases spike even with 35% of population vaccinated

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... BO630?il=0

In my opinion, the vaccine doesn't seem to be working as well as it should in Chile.
1. Is it the time constant on the vaccine? (One should expect some to be slower.
2. Is the effectiveness (real world performance) less than the effecacy (trial performance)
3. Does the vaccine not prevent transmission as well as AZ, Pfizer, and Moderna?
4. Does the local variants cut through vaccines? (or just the vaccine in use). e.g., is a booster shot already needed?
5. Is the local varriant so contagious that even higher fractions of vaccination are required?

I don't know. But my initial charting has too high of a transmission rate for that level of vaccination.

Lightsaber

5427247845 · Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:18 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Survey continued: 30 clots out of 18.1 million vaccines.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2BO6Y0

That is a trivial number versus the lives the vaccine is obviously saving. Compare the now open UK versus other countries (cases please, deaths are so emotional):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Considering how many in the UK had AZ, I'm just not able to take the panic seriously.

One death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic - J. Stalin

The Netherlands is also suspending the use of AZ under 60 year old:
https://nltimes.nl/2021/04/02/netherlands-halts-use-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-60s

5 cases, 1 lethal (all female between 20 and 65) and about 400,000 doses administered. So far AZ is predominantly used for protecting health care workers.

1 severe case in 80,000 jabs might be insignificant to some, but those weren’t the usual suspects to be killed by the Corona virus...

art · Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:21 pm

What is the incidence of thrombosis in people who catch COVID-19?

5427247845 · Fri Apr 02, 2021 7:45 pm

art wrote:
What is the incidence of thrombosis in people who catch COVID-19?

I don’t know, but what I have read thrombosis is happening with the severe cases (hospitalized) of COVID.

DocLightning · Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
In my opinion, the vaccine doesn't seem to be working as well as it should in Chile.

They have a lot of SinoVac, some Pfizer, and I guess some AZ on the way. This is my concern with the low-efficacy vaccines. I'm worried that they'll wind up driving escape mutants.

lightsaber · Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:40 pm

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
In my opinion, the vaccine doesn't seem to be working as well as it should in Chile.

They have a lot of SinoVac, some Pfizer, and I guess some AZ on the way. This is my concern with the low-efficacy vaccines. I'm worried that they'll wind up driving escape mutants.

AZ seems to drive down transmission fast in the UK. In my opinion it is better to vaccinate now and then have the booster. I would go so far as to say its effectiveness (real world performance) exceeds its effecacy (trial data).

90% of the vaccine in Chile is SinoVac:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... untry=~CHL

When there is no alternative, a low effecacy vaccine is better than waiting six months. SinoVac just might not be effective enough or does it take longer to protect?

I hope the previously discussed mix and match works. AZ now, mRNA later. Since mRNA is new, it has a learning curve which limits the production.

Not a great source...:
https://4xaa.com/the-chinese-vaccine-ag ... ose-of-it/

Two doctors in the UAE also said that some of the “Sinopharm” vaccine recipients among their patients and colleagues showed little or no response in terms of the level of antibodies developed after the second dose, and it is not clear to what extent the antibody tests measure the entire immune system response to the vaccine.

It looks as if select groups are getting a 3rd dose in the UAE of vaccine (is Sinopharm the same vaccine as SinoVac? I'm not certain).

Those two countries just are not seeing the relative benefit that Israel and the UK have, in my opinion.
Comparing cases to vaccination:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... SR~CHL~ARE

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... SA~CHN~ARE
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... ime=latest

UAE outvacinated everyone except Israel, but cases are trending with USA. Chile has outvacinated the UK, but is not seeing the benefits.

I would argue re-vaccinate as soon as possible with a more effective vaccine. But what to do this week? Stopping a vaccination campaign has long term hesitancy consequences, in my opinion.

Lightsaber

CranfordBoy · Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:01 pm

Some perspective on blood clotting:

Based on UK figures: 30 incidents out of 18 million doses, or about 1 in 600,000.
Contraceptive pill: incidence estimated by the FDA at between 3 to 9 per 10,000 per year. So a rate anywhere between 180x and 540x as high and yet an estimated 842 million people around the world happily take it. Source:

https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/ri ... ts/106257/

art · Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:20 pm

1 Given a sample of a million unvaccinated people, how many will catch COVID-19 and suffer thrombosis?
2 Given a sample of a million AZ vaccinated people, how many will suffer thrombosis?

If 1 is greater than 2, any AZ thrombosis association is of no consequence to me.

cjg225 · Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I swear, I am becoming more cynical on vaccine production every week.

For the millionth time in this thread, BECAUSE THIS STUFF IS HARD. You keep getting taken in by headlines, and to an extent it's amusing and to an extent it's frustrating.

All of these projections have been way optimistic from the start. They smack of marketing people talking out their rearends. Vaccine production is fraught with challenges. Tons of things can go wrong, and even when they don't go wrong you're still checking things over and over and over because of how stringent regulations are for vaccine manufacturing (and really pharma manufacturing in general, but even moreso for vaccines and biologics).

lightsaber · Sat Apr 03, 2021 1:49 am

art wrote:
1 Given a sample of a million unvaccinated people, how many will catch COVID-19 and suffer thrombosis?
2 Given a sample of a million AZ vaccinated people, how many will suffer thrombosis?

If 1 is greater than 2, any AZ thrombosis association is of no consequence to me.

Question 3: Would those suffering thrombosis from AZ have a statistically significant lesser case with other vaccines?

US trials found no increased risk of blood clots:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as ... NewsSearch

In other words, placebo and AZ vaccinated had similar clot rates.
"It was very pleasing to see that even with a magnifying glass the data safety monitoring board didn't see any imbalance between the vaccinated group and the placebo group. So, that gives us a lot of confidence."

https://www.msn.com/en-in/health/health ... NewsSearch
Two hundred eighty-one people (1.4 per cent) in the COVID-19 CVD Registry had a stroke confirmed by diagnostic imaging during hospitalization.

I found this study, from the Netherlands, on how Coronavirus causes dangerous blood clots. I cannot answer, but on clots, it is damned if you do, damned if you don't it seems
https://news.yahoo.com/dangerous-blood- ... 53961.html

Coronavirus also has other bad side effects.

Hopefully a regimen can be recommended (e.g., I was recommended light exercise before and after my vaccine to reduce side effects).

Lightsaber

5427247845 · Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:29 am

CranfordBoy wrote:
Some perspective on blood clotting:

Based on UK figures: 30 incidents out of 18 million doses, or about 1 in 600,000.
Contraceptive pill: incidence estimated by the FDA at between 3 to 9 per 10,000 per year. So a rate anywhere between 180x and 540x as high and yet an estimated 842 million people around the world happily take it. Source:

https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/ri ... ts/106257/

True, but I also know a lot of women don’t taking them because of the health issues, and there are more than one good alternatives available.
For this vaccine, there aren’t just a lot of options available. So you are more or less obliged to take it.

Aesma · Sat Apr 03, 2021 1:07 pm

lightsaber wrote:
With coronavirus, there is a huge risk of clots.

That's not really my point though. I don't plan to get injected with the virus, but with a vaccine.

lightsaber · Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:11 pm

Aesma wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
With coronavirus, there is a huge risk of clots.

That's not really my point though. I don't plan to get injected with the virus, but with a vaccine.

The point is you take one risk or the other. If you get the virus and are unvaccinated, the risk of clots is very high.

You cannot plan to not get the virus.

So it is selecting your risk. Take some aspirin and exercise before and after the vaccine. That will make a low risk practically zero.

Lightsaber

5427247845 · Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:52 pm

lightsaber wrote:
If you get the virus and are unvaccinated, the risk of clots is very high.

Please define “very high”.

DocLightning · Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I would argue re-vaccinate as soon as possible with a more effective vaccine. But what to do this week? Stopping a vaccination campaign has long term hesitancy consequences, in my opinion.

Lightsaber

I think we are in violent agreement. I would take SinoVac over no vaccine at all, but I wouldn't rest easy until I got my two mRNA doses. Fortunately, I had the privilege of getting my #1 choice (Pfizer) before Christmas.

DocLightning · Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:30 pm

marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If you get the virus and are unvaccinated, the risk of clots is very high.

Please define “very high”.

Probably not the 10+% noted in this study, but probably well over 1% of total cases.

ThePointblank · Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:24 pm

Moderna has been given the FDA go-ahead to start using larger vials that will hold 15 doses of it's vaccine, along with a revision that one can extract 11 doses out of the current 10 dose vial:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/moder ... 55336.html

(Reuters) - Moderna Inc on Thursday received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for an additional multi-dose vial of its COVID-19 vaccine in which each vial contains a maximum of 15 doses, increasing the number of doses available.

lightsaber · Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:27 pm

President of Argentina has a mild case of coronavirus despite Sputnik V Vaccine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/03/worl ... virus.html

DocLightning wrote:
marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If you get the virus and are unvaccinated, the risk of clots is very high.

Please define “very high”.

Probably not the 10+% noted in this study, but probably well over 1% of total cases.

A good enough bracket, 1% to 10%. Much more than 31 in 2.7 million in Netherlands, which has a much higher incidence thank the UK.

To others:
Getting coronavirus is like entering a club where those that had bad symptoms want to tell you about them. Since so many had it, ask your friends of the issues.

There is a reason my doctors checked in to make sure I did mild excercise when I had Covid19. It mitigates side effects.

Lightsaber

lightsaber · Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:45 pm

DocLightning wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I would argue re-vaccinate as soon as possible with a more effective vaccine. But what to do this week? Stopping a vaccination campaign has long term hesitancy consequences, in my opinion.

Lightsaber

I think we are in violent agreement. I would take SinoVac over no vaccine at all, but I wouldn't rest easy until I got my two mRNA doses. Fortunately, I had the privilege of getting my #1 choice (Pfizer) before Christmas.

We agree. I just had my first dose of Pfizer.

Nothing wrong with an informed preference. However, there will not be enough vaccine in 2021. I have friends who are very hesitant for any vaccine, but their spouse with cheering on talked them into J&J (one reason I am sad on the 15 million spoiled doses). Some people just want "one and done."

The wait is so long here in California, I would have been happy for Moderna too. I just logged on at the right time to have any choice.

But more is needed. The 20 something are angry at no option. Really angry. Hence why I want AZ approved. They might chose something else, but give them an option soon. I had a direct report blow up at me, not because of me, but because as a 50 something I could get vaccinated and he knows that the local pharmacies are starved of vaccine (half aren't jabbing as why bother) and he is a long time away from qualifying.

I'm happy people want vaccine. My opinion is a two dose vaccine takes 6 weeks to matter and the next wave has started. Either people are vaccinated in time or not. Heck, I would be ok if the hot zones (New Jersey, Michigan) were given extra AZ.

To others:
I had hoped for enough vaccine in the USA before the next wave. There is no longer a chance of that.

My heart goes out to those bearing the brunt of it, as I know it is 4 to 8 weeks away from where I live. Vaccine production is hard and expensive.

As of March 29th, 490 million doses administered:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-56237778

We have less than one dose per ten people. It is a tough road ahead.

Lightsaber

lightsaber · Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:30 am

While I shall wait for the data on Worldometer, the UK is reporting only ten Covid19 deaths. A nice drop:
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BQ0FP

3423 new cases (fractional increase) and over 5 million people 2nd dose.

Israel reported 300 new cases, 2 dearhs, and fewer serious hospital cases:
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0 ... 855403.htm

Everything is pointing to a highly vaccinated population having herd immunity. Although I fully admit to being nervous about the UK as I think they are a little undervaccinated for opening up. I hope to be proven wrong.

Lightsaber

5427247845 · Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:53 am

DocLightning wrote:
marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If you get the virus and are unvaccinated, the risk of clots is very high.

Please define “very high”.

Probably not the 10+% noted in this study, but probably well over 1% of total cases.

Lightsaber is using an article from April 2000, so I ask myself how valuable it is.

lightsaber · Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:11 pm

marcelh wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Please define “very high”.

Probably not the 10+% noted in this study, but probably well over 1% of total cases.

Lightsaber is using an article from April 2000, so I ask myself how valuable it is.

Do you have newer data? Unfortunately, it takes time to process information.

We can braket the cases are in the 1% to 10%. If there is newer data I missed, I would be happy to discuss it.

What we know is the cases of vaccinated clots is tens per million.
That is several orders of magnitude less than the data supplied with coronavirus.

I fully admit we only have order of magnitude data at this juncture and some data is older than other data.

But 10^-2 vs 10^-5 isn't a comparison.

If I knew people with issues from the vaccine, I would be concerned. I do not know of one, yet as many people locally are vaccinated as who are estimated to have had coronavirus... :scratchchin:

I personally know people from coronavirus who:
One person died
3 had heart attacks
1 has horrible lung scaring (crippled for life)
1 (a child) with inverted taste (everything tastes like rotten meat) with parents freaking out as the child is losing weight fast
24 with fatigue (I assume lung damage)
30+ (including myself) with reduced sense of taste and smell. Note: This group duplicates the above. Some had the inverted smell (every food smells horrible), but they recovered.

What is the background level of clots? There is a reason there is a placebo group in trials. Evidence is with AZ lower than the background:

After initial reports of clotting last month, AstraZeneca was quick to point out that the incidence of clots overall is lower in people who have received the shot that in the general population, in the countries that is using the shot.

https://krdo.com/news/health-news-2/202 ... a-vaccine/

In areas with high coronavirus, one expects bad clotting problems. Heck, some of the vaccine clots might be due to coronavirus.

He said the usual incidence of CVST in the UK was probably around 5 to 15 in every million each year, but he added that those figures vary because of the difficulty in diagnosing some cases. (from above link)

While this should be investigated, all evidence I've seen so far is that the incidence is at or below the background level.

What isn't being discussed is how effective AZ is at reducing transmission. Not only does coronavirus have a much higher incidence of the clots, but without vaccine, many more people will get coronavirus.
https://www.cdc.gov/healthyweight/asses ... s_bmi.html

I am of the opinion the reduced cases in the UK is partially due to the vaccinated not coming down with coronavirus, but even more so, the vaccinated are infecting fewer other people.
So you have a double effect.

The UK has 66 million people, France 67 million, so we can just compare directly:
UK just under 4k cases per day: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
France at just under 40k new cases per day: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The whole point of vaccines is to slow the spread. As AZ is the predominant UK vaccine, it certainly is showing effectiveness in reducing transmission.

Again,first cut is that 240 per day lives are being saved by the vaccine comparing the UK and France. I normally don't like comparing deaths, but sometimes that perspective is required.

Lightsaber

lightsaber · Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:03 pm

With Pfizer shown to be 90% effective at preventing transmission (upthread discussion) and 100% effective at stopping symptomatic infection in 12 to 15 year olds, I really hope that age group is prioritized for that specific vaccine soon. Why yes, I have a child in that age group, why do you ask?

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/eu ... uxbndlbing

This is actually why I keep advocating for AZ to be released to US pharmacies for any approved age group. We need as broad a vaccination campaign as fast as possible (it takes 6 weeks for vaccines to be really effective). I want to quash the start of a wave I see coming, e.g., New Jersey, as early as possible.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ew-jersey/
New York bouncing off such a high level is a bit scary too (8289 cases per day, same population Florida gets news but is bad, but only at 5425):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
The curve for MIchigan at 6456 cases per day (all 7 day averages), is steep too:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

Since the UK and Israel show "more is better" and the UK is certainly showing AZ works, I hope in the few weeks we have left before the next wave is established, we can vaccinate. I have the luxury of living in the region where the next wave will hit later, but I do not take that for granted.

Lightsaber

aerolimani · Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:03 pm

It’s completely pointless to use the efficacy studies for the purpose of rating one vaccine versus another. For example, both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccine efficacy studies were conducted early in the pandemic when overall case numbers were much lower, when more contagious/dangerous variants were not yet present, and only in the USA. By comparison, the JJ studies were conducted later when the participants had significantly more exposure, when variants were present, and were conducted principally in Brazil and South Africa.

Trying to pick one vaccine over another, based on the efficacy rates produced from their studies, is foolish. Such a statistic would only be useful if all the vaccines were studied together in the same time, location, and with the same methodology.

Fortunately, we have better, more accurate evidence emerging regarding rates of death and hospitalization, in countries where vaccination has been taking place for a while. Indications are that all the vaccines currently in worldwide use are successful in preventing serious illness and death.

Of course, the best outcome of vaccination is never getting the virus. That said, I will happily accept keeping people from getting really sick, and from suffering long term consequences, or dying. This will also reduce spread, when people are ill for shorter times, and with a much lower viral load in their bodies.

So, as has been said by others, the best vaccine for you is the one you’re offered.

lightsaber · Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:54 pm

aerolimani wrote:

Fortunately, we have better, more accurate evidence emerging regarding rates of death and hospitalization, in countries where vaccination has been taking place for a while. Indications are that all the vaccines currently in worldwide use are successful in preventing serious illness and death.

I agree with Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, and AZ. When I look at Chile and the UAE, I question the effectiveness of a few vaccines (effecacy is trial data, effectiveness is real world performance).

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... on~CHL~ARE

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RE~ISR~GBR

For the EU, UK, and FDA(US) vaccines, I completely agree with you. However, for the vaccines where they haven't put to public peer review the trials data, I do have questions.

I do not expect vaccines to be perfect.

At this point, quantity, not quality, is the main issue, but the UAE and Chile seem to not be as benefitting, or does the vaccine take longer?

Lightsaber

descl · Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:29 pm

lightsaber wrote:
aerolimani wrote:

Fortunately, we have better, more accurate evidence emerging regarding rates of death and hospitalization, in countries where vaccination has been taking place for a while. Indications are that all the vaccines currently in worldwide use are successful in preventing serious illness and death.

I agree with Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, and AZ. When I look at Chile and the UAE, I question the effectiveness of a few vaccines (effecacy is trial data, effectiveness is real world performance).

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... on~CHL~ARE

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RE~ISR~GBR

For the EU, UK, and FDA(US) vaccines, I completely agree with you. However, for the vaccines where they haven't put to public peer review the trials data, I do have questions.

I do not expect vaccines to be perfect.

At this point, quantity, not quality, is the main issue, but the UAE and Chile seem to not be as benefitting, or does the vaccine take longer?

Lightsaber

Preliminary results from a study made by the Catholic University of Chile concluded:
14 days after 1st dose, 38,2% of people vaccinated with Coronavac (Sinovac) produced neutralizing antibodies against S1 spike protein.
14 days after 2nd dose, % reached 96,9%.
This means, "full" protection is reached 6 weeks after 1st dose.
On the other hand, the Pfizer vaccine shows an 80% efficiency 14 days after the 1st dose, so yes, it looks like coronavac takes longer.

I attached a file that shows a sharp decline of % of people aged 70+ in UCIs in Chile in the last weeks; thats the people that got the vaccine first.

I think we are all quite nervous in Chile about this Sinovac vaccine because people were expecting better results sooner, instead, 90% of population is under a strict lockdown and borders closed effective tomorrow, but the are some encouraging figures.

Chile started its massive vaccination on february 3, by february 15th there was a significant % of people vaccinated with 1 dose, this means this first group reached a significant protection just last week.

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