BaconButty wrote:

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I'm just amazed only 32 in Britain were vaccinated after having both doses (either Pfizer or Astrazenica) and waiting 3 weeks (after 2nd jab):
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/e ... t-23952839

All the discussion on risks is orders of magnitude off.

Hi Lightsaber,

Interesting article from the Guardian about the same topic (the article also has a link to the published paper).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... y-positive

While the numbers are still very good, reality is a little worse. And that exactly is the problem with newspapers like Telegraph, Mirror and the like. While the numbers are correct, they put them out of context and make it harder for the reader to see the full picture. Nevertheless the core message of those articles is still true: the study is really encouraging and shows the massive impact of vaccines.

The study has data has for 74'405 hospitalisation but those happend between September and March (2nd wave). If one considers only data from 8 December (first jab) the number is reduced to 42'788 hospitalisations. Of those 1802 had a vaccine and only 32 were admitted three weeks or more after having a first shot (my numbers are not fully exact either since some are from the Guardian article and others from the study)

Between 8 December and 28 February 208'145 were hospitalised or about 5 times more than the data available for the study.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

I read that, and I thought it was pretty churlish by the Guardian. They could have pointed out that as of 12 Feb (3 weeks earlier, the latest someone could contribute to the "32") there were 14.5m first doses given and only half a million second doses. And it covers our 3rd wave which is really December through February - by 5th March hospitalizations were down to early October levels.

So even 150 out of 200,000 hospitalizations is fantastic, considering the large number of partially vaccinated people. That's 21% of the whole population, not just adults. So the expected figure would have been 40,000 or so! It also vindicates the long gap between doses.

Hi BaconButty,

I fully agree with your conclusion (hence I put in bold: "the study is really encouraging and shows the massive impact of vaccines"). But I would criticise both the Guardian and Mirror since they failed to give all the numbers and allow the reader to get the full picture.

As you know neither gave the number of hospitalizations during the period considered. Hence I looked it up to show that the study had access to huge data (over 20% of all hospitalizations) . You also added a good point about the number of vaccinated.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

LCDFlight wrote:

Chemist wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

Quite frankly, such policies lack the bigger vision. As long as large parts of the world remain unvaccinated, fertile breeding grounds for new variants exist. We are entering into a cat-and-mouse game. As long as new variants keep cropping up with such regularity, we will be constantly behind the curve.

Perhaps the island nations of the world can exist in their little vaccinated bubbles, but for all the countries of the Americas, Europe, Asia, and the Asian sun-continent, we need to think more internationally. All our borders are porous, and mostly by choice. How many trucks and trains cross every day, without quarantine, between Canada, Mexico, and the USA?

The pandemic risk isn't over for anybody until it's over for everybody.

Who said the "risk" has to be over? Who said anything is risk-free? Nothing in life (or medicine?) is risk-free.

Chances are that COVID will be with us the rest of our natural lives. I was never impressed that we are going to "control" COVID or "win against" COVID. That's presumptuous and setting ourselves up for disappointment. Should we be sad the rest of our lives over this? There are plenty of diseases to be sad about, this is one. But we should try to be happy.

Neither am I.

While I agree that we are much better off with the advents of Science and Technology especially in the area of medicine. I think this means that many people think that we are now above nature, while we should advance medicine and combat climate change we need to realize that nature at the end of the day is calling the shots.

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

BaconButty wrote:

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

Hi Lightsaber,

Interesting article from the Guardian about the same topic (the article also has a link to the published paper).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... y-positive

While the numbers are still very good, reality is a little worse. And that exactly is the problem with newspapers like Telegraph, Mirror and the like. While the numbers are correct, they put them out of context and make it harder for the reader to see the full picture. Nevertheless the core message of those articles is still true: the study is really encouraging and shows the massive impact of vaccines.

The study has data has for 74'405 hospitalisation but those happend between September and March (2nd wave). If one considers only data from 8 December (first jab) the number is reduced to 42'788 hospitalisations. Of those 1802 had a vaccine and only 32 were admitted three weeks or more after having a first shot (my numbers are not fully exact either since some are from the Guardian article and others from the study)

Between 8 December and 28 February 208'145 were hospitalised or about 5 times more than the data available for the study.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

I read that, and I thought it was pretty churlish by the Guardian. They could have pointed out that as of 12 Feb (3 weeks earlier, the latest someone could contribute to the "32") there were 14.5m first doses given and only half a million second doses. And it covers our 3rd wave which is really December through February - by 5th March hospitalizations were down to early October levels.

So even 150 out of 200,000 hospitalizations is fantastic, considering the large number of partially vaccinated people. That's 21% of the whole population, not just adults. So the expected figure would have been 40,000 or so! It also vindicates the long gap between doses.

Hi BaconButty,

I fully agree with your conclusion (hence I put in bold: "the study is really encouraging and shows the massive impact of vaccines"). But I would criticise both the Guardian and Mirror since they failed to give all the numbers and allow the reader to get the full picture.

As you know neither gave the number of hospitalizations during the period considered. Hence I looked it up to show that the study had access to huge data (over 20% of all hospitalizations) . You also added a good point about the number of vaccinated.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Numbers are good. The trend isn't as exciting when normalized, but still an excellent trend.

Overall:
1. Vaccine takes time. It seems reasonable that 3 weeks post 2nd dose is a fair benchmark.
2. They reduce hospitizations and death. Not perfect.
3. Heavily vaccinated areas are getting a herd benefit. I won't say immunity, but some reduction due to many contacts already being vaccinated.

Israel, UK, UAE, and Chile are facinating case studies for Pfizer, AstraZenica+ Pfizer, Sinopharm, and SinoVac respectively.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

panamair wrote:

stl07 wrote:

Everywhere in the Western world seems to be slowing vaccination. In the EU, AZ hesitancy certainly plays a role. In the USA, lack of J&J. I don't know why Chile slowed...
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... pean+Union


Lightsaber

The slowed of vaccination in Chile is a mixture among delay of vaccine arrivals ( rough 2 millons per week in march to 1 millon per week now aprox) and the Flu Vaccine program start now in april, that mean 10 millons people must vaccinate in parallel of Covid immunize shot ( 15 millon people ), and that is a huge charge to Healt system. How example if in a normal day in march 400 thousand people has a Covid shot ( 200 first doses + 200 second doses), now the same 400 thousand people have a shot at day, but 50 thousand are first jab, 200 thousand the second and 150 thousand the Flu Vaccine.

Plus MINSAL ( healt secretary) prioritise the second jab in the case of Sinovac vaccine because the low efficiency of first shot.

Valneva and EU failed to reach an agreement. Valneva will try to sell to individual EU nations:
https://news.yahoo.com/news/eu-says-val ... 38409.html

Elgorou wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

panamair wrote:

The slowed of vaccination in Chile is a mixture among delay of vaccine arrivals ( rough 2 millons per week in march to 1 millon per week now aprox) and the Flu Vaccine program start now in april, that mean 10 millons people must vaccinate in parallel of Covid immunize shot ( 15 millon people ), and that is a huge charge to Healt system. How example if in a normal day in march 400 thousand people has a Covid shot ( 200 first doses + 200 second doses), now the same 400 thousand people have a shot at day, but 50 thousand are first jab, 200 thousand the second and 150 thousand the Flu Vaccine.

Plus MINSAL ( healt secretary) prioritise the second jab in the case of Sinovac vaccine because the low efficiency of first shot.

Thank you. Interesting. People definitely want the flu shot as flu+Coronavirus is very bad.

Lightsaber

I'm a little concerned at the text I received:
Get your family and friends vaccinated! Appointments are AVAILABLE NOW at MyTurn.ca.gov. Vaccines are FREE and for anyone 16 and older.

I expected another ten days of tight vaccine appointments. Everyone I know who qualifies for the appointment, and wants a vaccine, has an appointment; except one individual I suspect is really avoiding getting the vaccine but saying what that person thinks others want to hear...

But only 43% vacvinated...
https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... tribution/

Rhoo Rhoo...

The UK has updated its AZ numbers:

“ Britain’s medicines regulator on Thursday said there had been 168 major blood clots following a dose of AstraZeneca’s (AZN.L) COVID-19 vaccine, a rate of 7.9 clots per million doses, a jump in incidence from the previous week’s figure.

This was up from the 100 cases reported last week, when the overall case incidence was 4.9 per million doses.

There were 32 reported deaths from clots in total, compared to 22 reported last week, but the fatality rate of the reported clots dropped to 19% from 22%.“

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britis ... 021-04-22/

8 / million works out to 1 / 125,000. On a 10 million spread, that’s 80 more hospital beds (potentially ICU) taken up by otherwise young and healthy folk.

Has it hurt AZ take up here in Canada? Ontario - currently being hit very hard by the UK variant - dropped the recommended age to 40+ (from 55+) and has had no problem moving product/ filling up appointments. Suggests vaccine hesitancy is linked directly to the severity of the wave and nothing else(including political noise); individuals are doing their own risk analysis.

AZ looks to be a crisis medicine fit for a crisis, but the long term implications of a 1/125,000 risk of a dangerous malady once things settle down don’t look great.

I'm not sure as to whether this goes here, but in California, the University of California and Cal State schools will be requiring COVID-19 vaccinations when/if they receive full FDA approval. https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... -this-fall

hbernal1 wrote:

I'm not sure as to whether this goes here, but in California, the University of California and Cal State schools will be requiring COVID-19 vaccinations when/if they receive full FDA approval. https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... -this-fall

I found links that Pfizer and Moderna would apply for full FDA approval and the biologics license application (BLA).
But have they? I couldn't find any application announcement, just "pending" or "expected" here is one link I picked just because it had Pfizer and Moderna in it.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/pfizer-r ... f-2021-fda

I assume it will happen? For universities, since vaccines are available down to age 16, that will work.
However, per the link above "Once filed, we expect the FDA to make a final decision in the second half of 2021." (on full license).

So we might be talking Fall Semester. However, students will need time to be vaccinated.

I know when full FDA approval for children is released, my children's schools will require vaccines for everyone (including staff). However, we first need emergency approval for below age 16.

Lightsaber

ElPistolero wrote:

8 / million works out to 1 / 125,000. On a 10 million spread, that’s 80 more hospital beds (potentially ICU) taken up by otherwise young and healthy folk.

That's the wrong calculation.
Out of those 10 million vaccinated people, how many Covid ICU beds are you saving?...

...a LOT more than 80.

art wrote:

I don't like what the UK is doing with first and second doses.

In England there has been a dramatic fall in the number of first doses given this month and a dramatic rise in the the number of second doses given.

March
9.2 million first doses given
2.6 million second doses given

April (to 21st)
1.5 million first doses given
5.5 million second doses given

UK decided to use an interval of 12 weeks (84 days) between first and second doses.

ie if 1,000,000 first doses had been given 84 days ago, one would expect 1,000,000 second doses to have been given today.

6.2 million first doses had been given 84 days ago
9.0 million second doses have been given today

In other words, second doses are way, way ahead of schedule. Does that matter?

I think it does:
(a) the UK is reducing the % of the population with some protection against COVID (first dose) by giving people full protection (second dose) prematurely. I think that means more people will become ill with COVID.
(b) by delaying first doses, the time at which all can be fully protected will move to the right - if we do not complete the first dose programme until August, we will not be able to get the second dose programme finished until September onwards (even if we reduce the interval between doses to 28 days).

I hope the UK goes back to giving more weight to first doses.

It seems pretty clear that the UK has followed a very "risk management" based approach.
There's been a pretty rigid policy of prioritising the vulnerable groups, and the older population initially (the "top 9 groups").
So there was a push to get as many of these groups under 1st dose as possible, and prioritise these over 2nd dose.
Having achieved this, I think the thrust is now to back-track and ensure that these groups have full cover, on the basis that the remaining groups are by definition low risk.

I'm pretty lucky as a "senior leader" (whatever that means) in a major manufacturing firm which totally dominates its region in terms of employment and population - we have weekly Friday lunchtime calls with our BOD and the regional health authorities on the Covid status.
We have been advised that the return of 1st dose roll-out is planned in the next 2-3 weeks, and that vaccine availability is not predicted to impact the plan.

So it feels like you will see the "UK goes back to giving more weight to first doses"

Have to see how the "risk management" approach works.. it seems to have been very good so far.

The mass roll out of AZ to every care home in the UK has been a masterstroke that has saved 10's of thousands of lives in the UK, and taken a huge amount of pressure off the NHS - verified not only by my wife (who runs a care home and subscribes to a facebook messenger group for care home owners in the UK), but also by the weekly briefs to my firm's senior leadership group by the local health authorities.
The AZ was eminently suitable for this given that care home population can't travel to the vaccine - the vaccine has to come to them.

The Pfizer seems to have been more likely to go to the "vaccination centres" that can be set up to manage it's more onerous supply conditions

Rgds

lightsaber wrote:

More good news on vaccines:
Only 32 people have been admitted to hospital with covid-19 more than three weeks after receiving at least one dose of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Oxford/AstraZeneca jabs, a study has found.

From: https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... z6shDPRjIq

We've posted numerous links on how vaccines slow transmission. If one dose keeps people out of the hospital, that is a benefit! e.g., the article points out to the oxygen shortage in India.

I remain a huge advocate of vaccinating as many as early as possible.

Lightsaber

I wonder how much trialling of extended intervals between 1st and 2nd jab is taking place, The data re: 1st jab protection and disease levels precipitating hospital treatment are so phenomenally good that I think we should be trying very hard to find out how much we can delay 2nd dose administration. Every 2nd jab given is a first jab not given.

4 months or so after vaccination started less than 15% of the world population has received any protection from COVID-19. That percentage could be accelerated greatly in the coming months if the interval between 1st and 2nd jabs could be extended.

I am a huge advocate of vaccinating as many as early as possible. To do that we need to know how far to the right we can push 2nd jabs. Are we taking urgent steps to find out?

lightsaber wrote:

Valneva and EU failed to reach an agreement. Valneva will try to sell to individual EU nations:
https://news.yahoo.com/news/eu-says-val ... 38409.html

Some interesting quotes:

"It's not the end of the story," the French government source told Reuters, on condition of anonymity. But it added that many EU countries feared Valneva would favour Britain over the EU, as they suspect AstraZeneca did.

"The fear of an AstraZeneca scenario is leaving many member states unimpressed," the source said. "However, negotiations with the EU are not over."

Among the conditions cited by the EU for failing to reach a deal earlier on Thursday were "solid protection in the areas of liability safety, effectiveness of the vaccine and also solid rules and arrangements for the delivery of the vaccines."

"After a year of negotiations the company has not, at this stage, succeeded to meet these conditions, which is one of the reasons why we have not yet reached an agreement," the Commission spokesman said.


@Lightsaber:
Why isn't this posted in the "EU vaccination" thread?

marcelh wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Valneva and EU failed to reach an agreement. Valneva will try to sell to individual EU nations:
https://news.yahoo.com/news/eu-says-val ... 38409.html

Some interesting quotes:

"It's not the end of the story," the French government source told Reuters, on condition of anonymity. But it added that many EU countries feared Valneva would favour Britain over the EU, as they suspect AstraZeneca did.

"The fear of an AstraZeneca scenario is leaving many member states unimpressed," the source said. "However, negotiations with the EU are not over."

Among the conditions cited by the EU for failing to reach a deal earlier on Thursday were "solid protection in the areas of liability safety, effectiveness of the vaccine and also solid rules and arrangements for the delivery of the vaccines."

"After a year of negotiations the company has not, at this stage, succeeded to meet these conditions, which is one of the reasons why we have not yet reached an agreement," the Commission spokesman said.


@Lightsaber:
Why isn't this posted in the "EU vaccination" thread?

The EU vaccine strategy thread... I don't think is much impacted by this decision due to when the vaccine is to be manufactured, so not much of an EU strategy impact. .
I posted as it is more interesting the vaccine didn't make sales. One more vaccine out there, but limited quantity/interest.
This is more of an impact on the vaccine, in my opinion, so I chose this thread.
Valneva should have some UK impact though and some impact elsewhere. If you want to post in the EU strategy thread, feel free.
I'm more interested in it from a volume of vaccine out there.

They are finally launching phase 3 trials:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/frenc ... 1619091912
Those trials are no placebo. Either people get AZ or they get the Valneva vaccine.

Lightsaber

Out of curiosity (and profound ignorance), how do you get from a vaccine being allowed emergecy use (EMA) to full approval? And are AZ and J&J ever going to get their vaccines fully approved (given clot side effects)?

art wrote:

Out of curiosity (and profound ignorance), how do you get from a vaccine being allowed emergecy use (EMA) to full approval? And are AZ and J&J ever going to get their vaccines fully approved (given clot side effects)?

The flu vaccines that are released every year always have side effects, including deaths.....it is not unusual for vaccines and or various drugs to be given full approval with known and listed side effects.

lightsaber wrote:

marcelh wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Valneva and EU failed to reach an agreement. Valneva will try to sell to individual EU nations:
https://news.yahoo.com/news/eu-says-val ... 38409.html

Some interesting quotes:

"It's not the end of the story," the French government source told Reuters, on condition of anonymity. But it added that many EU countries feared Valneva would favour Britain over the EU, as they suspect AstraZeneca did.

"The fear of an AstraZeneca scenario is leaving many member states unimpressed," the source said. "However, negotiations with the EU are not over."

Among the conditions cited by the EU for failing to reach a deal earlier on Thursday were "solid protection in the areas of liability safety, effectiveness of the vaccine and also solid rules and arrangements for the delivery of the vaccines."

"After a year of negotiations the company has not, at this stage, succeeded to meet these conditions, which is one of the reasons why we have not yet reached an agreement," the Commission spokesman said.


@Lightsaber:
Why isn't this posted in the "EU vaccination" thread?

The EU vaccine strategy thread... I don't think is much impacted by this decision due to when the vaccine is to be manufactured, so not much of an EU strategy impact. .
I posted as it is more interesting the vaccine didn't make sales. One more vaccine out there, but limited quantity/interest.
This is more of an impact on the vaccine, in my opinion, so I chose this thread.
Valneva should have some UK impact though and some impact elsewhere. If you want to post in the EU strategy thread, feel free.
I'm more interested in it from a volume of vaccine out there.

They are finally launching phase 3 trials:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/frenc ... 1619091912
Those trials are no placebo. Either people get AZ or they get the Valneva vaccine.

Lightsaber

You bring up an interesting question. What is the demand for the different vaccines. There seems to be a big difference between the vaccine production projections from the pharma companies and what has been sold.

Pfizer/BioNTech talks about 2.5 billion, or even more, for 2021 but has contracts for only 1.4 billion, leaving 1.1 billion unalocated.

There could be several reasons...

How confident are Pfizer/BioNTech about those production estimate they comunicate to investors and media?

If I remember correctly Pfizer's CEO said that high income countries will pay full price, middle income countries half price and low income countries a quarter. If so, I think Pfizer will try to push most production to high income countries (take full advantage of superior production capacity and "good" covid vaccine brand). For middle and lower income countries their is no incentives to sign up contracts.

Since US through Defense Production Act and I belive, EU through other means, block an yet unknown production capacity that can only be sold when blocks are lifted.
The EU is close to deal for 1.8 billion doses for 2022 and 23. Will the US sign a similar deal? Also will there be a need for 3rd jab or booster in 21? If so US and EU will again be first in line and block production for others.

Then there are COVAX, Gavi, UN (not sure if the three form together one or if vaccines will also be delivered separately). Some doses not sold yet, might be allocated to those programs (Pfizer/BioNTech has a a deal for supplying COVAX/Gavi with 40 Mio jabs in 21 starting from Q2).
And while for exemple the EU (as many others) gives money to COVAX/Gavi they also supply vaccines directly through what I believe they call "Team Europe" (to make it more complicated team Europe is sometimes also cited when the delivery is made through COVAX/Gavi). In the contracts signed by the EU it is said that they can donate the purchased doses to lower income countries.

Finally as Pfizer's CEO said, when the Pandemic goes back to endemic, they would like to sell vaccine on the free market...

My point: as long as demand massively outstrips production everybody will be able to sell. The main question will be to whom and for what price. This will also be true for Valneva.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

According to politico the EU is about to agree on a new order for 1.8 billions vaccines with pfizer on the top of the 600 millions already coming.

It is a Truly sad day when a US State Department of Health ( Tennessee ) has to actually put something like this out as fact check.

https://twitter.com/TNDeptofHealth/stat ... 2109714437

Fiction: The COVID-19 vaccine was developed to control the general public through microchip tracking.

Fact: There is no vaccine “microchip.” The vaccine will not track people or gather personal information for a database.

To be fair Tennessee is only 45 out of 51 on the states+DC with the current lowest distribution percentage.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... tered.html

45. Tennessee
Doses distributed to state: 5,253,610
Doses administered: 3,699,866
Percentage of distributed vaccines that have been administered: 70.43

Francoflier wrote:

ElPistolero wrote:

8 / million works out to 1 / 125,000. On a 10 million spread, that’s 80 more hospital beds (potentially ICU) taken up by otherwise young and healthy folk.

That's the wrong calculation.
Out of those 10 million vaccinated people, how many Covid ICU beds are you saving?...

...a LOT more than 80.

A fair point, but that’s a longer term assumption while adverse reactions and ICU usage are short term realities.

An individual who is vaccinated today, but ends up in the ICU next week is taking up space when ICU resources are still scarce in the middle of a wave. If they were taking it in 3 months when ICU loads are lower, that’s clearly the a different equation.

The current rate of adverse reaction in Canada is currently 1 in 260,000 (4 in 1.1 million), but with AZ going mostly to 55+. Will see if that holds now that it’s being offered to 40+.

casinterest wrote:

It is a Truly sad day when a US State Department of Health ( Tennessee ) has to actually put something like this out as fact check.

https://twitter.com/TNDeptofHealth/stat ... 2109714437

Fiction: The COVID-19 vaccine was developed to control the general public through microchip tracking.

Fact: There is no vaccine “microchip.” The vaccine will not track people or gather personal information for a database.

To be fair Tennessee is only 45 out of 51 on the states+DC with the current lowest distribution percentage.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... tered.html

45. Tennessee
Doses distributed to state: 5,253,610
Doses administered: 3,699,866
Percentage of distributed vaccines that have been administered: 70.43

Hey, I've heard the WiFi you get from those microchips is great! All kidding aside, I do think a lack of unified, consistent public health messaging from the media and some of our public health officials has played into the hands of these kinds of conspiracy theories and misinformation spreading. The big issue with the US being such a large country is you can achieve herd immunity but still have pockets where vaccine uptake is low, which can still be favorable to breeding escape variants later and prolonging the pandemic.

For a comparison, California is reaching 50% vaccinated with one dose (11th out of 50) and cases are starting to fall again, though there were some backlogged cases from December/January that showed up in last week's numbers. Still, positivity rate in California is down to about 1% (California is 50th in case rate/100k and positivity rate!). L.A./Orange County are reporting their lowest positivity rates since... ever. The Bay Area + San Diego County look like they could be reaching vaccine-induced herd immunity by early June (all are >50% first dose, Marin County >60%). High seroprevalence in L.A./Orange probably means vaccine threshold for herd immunity is lower (L.A. is currently at 43% first dose, Orange County 45%).

Of the states that were seeing large case surges, NJ/NY/Michigan is starting to see cases going down too. My guess is that in NJ/NY, high vaccine uptake is starting to kick in (NJ is at 48% with 1 dose, NY 45%). I'm really concerned about Puerto Rico. Other states in the Northeast where vaccine uptake is high have seen cases start to fall (Vermont 49% 1st dose, NH 59% 1st dose, CT 51% 1st dose, Mass. 51% 1st dose, RI 48% 1st dose), Maine is the only exception (cases going up but 51% first dose).

ElPistolero wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

ElPistolero wrote:

8 / million works out to 1 / 125,000. On a 10 million spread, that’s 80 more hospital beds (potentially ICU) taken up by otherwise young and healthy folk.

That's the wrong calculation.
Out of those 10 million vaccinated people, how many Covid ICU beds are you saving?...

...a LOT more than 80.

A fair point, but that’s a longer term assumption while adverse reactions and ICU usage are short term realities.

An individual who is vaccinated today, but ends up in the ICU next week is taking up space when ICU resources are still scarce in the middle of a wave. If they were taking it in 3 months when ICU loads are lower, that’s clearly the a different equation.

The current rate of adverse reaction in Canada is currently 1 in 260,000 (4 in 1.1 million), but with AZ going mostly to 55+. Will see if that holds now that it’s being offered to 40+.

The NACI is recommending that the AstraZeneca vaccine be used on those 30+:

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/04/23 ... naci-says/

“At this time, and based on current evidence, NACI recommends that the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine may be offered to individuals 30 years of age and older, without contraindications, if the individual does not wish to wait for an mRNA vaccine, and the benefits outweigh the risks,” said Dr. Shelley Deeks, NACI vice-chair.

I never thought California would be this vaccine hesitant. I just logged onto my.turn.ca.gov
Put a zip code, say 90278 (North Redondo)
The forum mega pod comes up (Pfizer)
Appointments available from 1:40pm today and on next 4 days. Walk up appointments!!! Grrr...

44.1% of population have had a vaccine:
https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... tribution/

This is too little. I want vaccine for my kids, but not because so many are hesitant...

ThePointblank wrote:

ElPistolero wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

That's the wrong calculation.
Out of those 10 million vaccinated people, how many Covid ICU beds are you saving?...

...a LOT more than 80.

A fair point, but that’s a longer term assumption while adverse reactions and ICU usage are short term realities.

An individual who is vaccinated today, but ends up in the ICU next week is taking up space when ICU resources are still scarce in the middle of a wave. If they were taking it in 3 months when ICU loads are lower, that’s clearly the a different equation.

The current rate of adverse reaction in Canada is currently 1 in 260,000 (4 in 1.1 million), but with AZ going mostly to 55+. Will see if that holds now that it’s being offered to 40+.

The NACI is recommending that the AstraZeneca vaccine be used on those 30+:

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/04/23 ... naci-says/

“At this time, and based on current evidence, NACI recommends that the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine may be offered to individuals 30 years of age and older, without contraindications, if the individual does not wish to wait for an mRNA vaccine, and the benefits outweigh the risks,” said Dr. Shelley Deeks, NACI vice-chair.

I'm ok with conditions (e.g., certain medicines). But this looks like the correct risk assessment.

I'm glad my Covid19 was mild long haul symptoms (e.g., I'm back swimming and jogging with only aquired pudge slowing me down.) I feel for those worse. An acquaintance at work who I've seen "peak bagging" (local slang for hiking the local short mountains), cannot even walk between buildings... yuck!

Lightsaber

I have heard some people say they do not want the covid shot because they are anti vax or they don't trust a vaccine that has been out only a short time or any number of reasons. The stock response is "what about smallpox vaccine and polio vaccine and measles vaccine" but, honestly, what about tetanus? Can we add that to the list?

When posting a link, please have some original comment as per forum rules.

seb146 wrote:

I have heard some people say they do not want the covid shot because they are anti vax or they don't trust a vaccine that has been out only a short time or any number of reasons. The stock response is "what about smallpox vaccine and polio vaccine and measles vaccine" but, honestly, what about tetanus? Can we add that to the list?

since tetanus isn't transmittable I would not put it on the list, it is a vaccine only for personal benefit.

Eiszeit wrote:

seb146 wrote:

I have heard some people say they do not want the covid shot because they are anti vax or they don't trust a vaccine that has been out only a short time or any number of reasons. The stock response is "what about smallpox vaccine and polio vaccine and measles vaccine" but, honestly, what about tetanus? Can we add that to the list?

since tetanus isn't transmittable I would not put it on the list, it is a vaccine only for personal benefit.

People forget the SARS outbreak of 2004, the MERS, etc. Coronaviruses aren’t new and vaccines and studies for these viruses have been done for decades now.
Check out this article from January 2020. Already Moderna was developing the vaccine. Technology and Science are not the same as 80 years ago when Vaccines took years while they were developed. People really really need to start looking more at a real mass cognitive dissonance outbreak and less at a vaccine literally developed to move on from this hell. I have very little faith in humanity nowadays, ironically, more in the “developed” world than elsewhere...

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-long-will-it-take-to-develop-vaccine-for-coronavirus

The J&J vaccine is available again the in US
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/23/health/j ... index.html

"We have concluded that the known and potential benefits of the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine outweigh its known and potential risks in individuals 18 years of age and older," acting FDA Commissioner Dr. Janet Woodcock said in a statement.

This does seem foolish to me. Mathematically speaking, all of us knew it before the pause.

ACIP members worried that taking one of only three vaccines out of the mix available to Americans would slow efforts to immunize the population against a virus that has killed more than half a million people in the United States. Plus, they agreed that having a one-shot vaccine that doesn't need to be stored in freezers was valuable and would be preferred by many people who do not want to come back for a second dose, or who would struggle to make two vaccination appointments.

This vaccine is probably the best shot we have at getting those that just don not want to get a shot to take a vaccine. At least until another one comes out.

seb146 wrote:

I have heard some people say they do not want the covid shot because they are anti vax or they don't trust a vaccine that has been out only a short time or any number of reasons. The stock response is "what about smallpox vaccine and polio vaccine and measles vaccine" but, honestly, what about tetanus? Can we add that to the list?

Tetanus is for personal gain. Not really valid. The issue I see with the Anit Vaxer's is this "personal choice" nonsense. And not so strangely it is from the same crowd that is anti-mask There is a lot of selfish hypocrisy in the argument. These are the folks that want businesses top open, but they want to keep the virus alive that caused them to close and allow it time to kill more people and possibly mutate into something worse.

lightsaber wrote:

When posting a link, please have some original comment as per forum rules.

That was my mistake yesterday. I got distracted and forgot to type something in. Sorry about that.

casinterest wrote:

The J&J vaccine is available again the in US
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/23/health/j ... index.html

"We have concluded that the known and potential benefits of the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine outweigh its known and potential risks in individuals 18 years of age and older," acting FDA Commissioner Dr. Janet Woodcock said in a statement.

This does seem foolish to me. Mathematically speaking, all of us knew it before the pause.

I think they actually didn't know mathematically. You have to consider that there is a time lag between vaccination and occurance of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia and additional time lag til the event is recorded.

While the Advisory Committee for Immunization knew the number of jabs, it didn't know the number of cases of TTS at the time of the stop. From your link there were 15 cases in total, thus 8 or 9 additional cases have become known during the pause.
In Order to make a recommendation the ACIP had to wait a few days to see how the number of TTS evolved.

Interestingly per this Vox link (see table mid article), the occurrence is 7 in a million for women aged between 18 and 49. And seeing those numbers, if I was a 40 year old women, I would think twice about taking J&J, especially knowing how available other vaccines are in the US.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/223993 ... clots-cvst

BTW, in Europe they speak of VTTS and not TTS because they think it is vaccine induced.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

casinterest,
I'm excited that J&J is available again, but I'm certain the "pause" will keep a number of coworkers from being vaccinated.
It did have my neighbor get mRNA instead of J&J. He is only getting vaccinated due to the wife telling him to get vaccinated, so before he was trying for the "one and done."

I had four coworkers with cancelled appointments (and the neighbor). The coworkers probably won't reschedule and appointments are available right now on myturn.ca.gov. I put in my work zipcode of 90278 (oh, picked Los Angeles county).
There is Pfizer and Moderna available this morning from multiple sources with appointments before lunch today! (it is just after 7am local) Plenty of appointments in coming days too.

"Supersites" are closing. While the NYTimes has a more detailed link, I'll just point to the Disneyland site closing end of April:
https://news.yahoo.com/disneyland-covid ... 11852.html

We're only at 44.1% 1st dose (I assume the vast majority will get the 2nd dose): https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... tribution/


I worry about the anti-vax (there is enough information, choice and supply now). The fraction with long haul symptoms keeps growing (I have some, but mitigating post vaccination). My doctor said 40% to 60% of people are seeing relief post vaccine, but I was warned it takes months. (The vaccine doesn't heal you, it allows your body to heal itself by stopping the attack of either live virus, fragments of virus, or resetting the bodies immune system as they don't know why, yet.)
https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/2 ... -symptoms/

Best source I have is a poll that 42% of long haulers recovered, but I think polls inherently bias negative (but that is just my opinion). e.g., People who haven't recovered are more likely to take a poll in this case.
https://www.12news.com/article/news/hea ... da5eb644ab

Again and again we hear how vaccines reduce transmission. Read this link fast, a pop up demanding e-mail zoom in:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... f-covid-19

Ok, time to take the kids out.
Lightsaber

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

casinterest wrote:

The J&J vaccine is available again the in US
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/23/health/j ... index.html

"We have concluded that the known and potential benefits of the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine outweigh its known and potential risks in individuals 18 years of age and older," acting FDA Commissioner Dr. Janet Woodcock said in a statement.

This does seem foolish to me. Mathematically speaking, all of us knew it before the pause.

I think they actually didn't know mathematically. You have to consider that there is a time lag between vaccination and occurance of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia and additional time lag til the event is recorded.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Well I still wonder how they got the numbers so quickly even though its local when they got the numbers for AZ over a week or two ago, also noting that the AZ trials did involve the USA and they still cannot approve that.
As a number of sites in the USA are closing due to appointments being open, the hesitancy in the USA and elsewhere will grow due to the AZ and JJ clot public spat. Throw in the fact that AZ is one of the vaccines that requires minimal storage infrastructure, the developing world for the rest of 2021 may be an incubator for COVID, already politicians to encourage doses are proposing changes to vaccine strategy that on its face is illogical until you accept that they may just be PR to encourage the resistant population. Business houses are already mandating employees get vaccinated or separate themselves..
https://www.bahamas.com/tourism-reopening

par13del wrote:

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

casinterest wrote:

The J&J vaccine is available again the in US
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/23/health/j ... index.html



This does seem foolish to me. Mathematically speaking, all of us knew it before the pause.

I think they actually didn't know mathematically. You have to consider that there is a time lag between vaccination and occurance of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia and additional time lag til the event is recorded.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Well I still wonder how they got the numbers so quickly even though its local when they got the numbers for AZ over a week or two ago, also noting that the AZ trials did involve the USA and they still cannot approve that.
As a number of sites in the USA are closing due to appointments being open, the hesitancy in the USA and elsewhere will grow due to the AZ and JJ clot public spat. Throw in the fact that AZ is one of the vaccines that requires minimal storage infrastructure, the developing world for the rest of 2021 may be an incubator for COVID, already politicians to encourage doses are proposing changes to vaccine strategy that on its face is illogical until you accept that they may just be PR to encourage the resistant population. Business houses are already mandating employees get vaccinated or separate themselves..
https://www.bahamas.com/tourism-reopening

Well, my comment to casinterest was only regarding J&J and the number of cases in the US. I don't understand why do you think there is something nefarious behind the additional cases found in the US over the last week. As I said there is a time lag between vaccination, occurance of TTS and confirmation of the case of TTS.
That the US authorities found them quickly, seems rather normal since they were looking for them (in a rather small population sample since people getting massif side effects out of 8 million people vaccinated with J&J should be a rather small group). I don't know if they found all cases of TTS but they certainly had good confidence the numbers wouldn't change in an order of magnitude that would effect their findings.

As for AZ, I can't comment why the AZ vaccine has not yet gotten EUA in the US but think that is mostly linked with supply (I believe AZ has overestimated yields everwere but could be wrong).
But what I can say, is that the US AZ trial had nothing to do with VTTS. With only 30'000 people (might remember the number wrong) you have only 15'000 people who got AZ jabs or max 30'000 people if the placebo group was also vaccinated with AZ after the trial. That number is way to small to be able to get any findings on possible side effect that occur in 1 in 100'000 cases or less. The VTTS with AZ is based on UK and EU findings (with additional Canadian and Australian cases I think)

As for vaccination hesitancy. I'm European (Swiss) and can't tell for the world. But for Europe my believe is that the right course was followed.
I think that most Europeans trust their health agencies and that transparent communication about risks with vaccines will do more to convince vaccine hesitant people to take a vaccine than any other strategy. I belive the worst option in Europe would be no communication/inaction and media regularly reporting about people dying after they had been vaccinated and explicitly or just suggesting a link between the two in each case.

Beat regards and stay safe,
Jonas

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

par13del wrote:

AirbusCheerlead wrote:

I think they actually didn't know mathematically. You have to consider that there is a time lag between vaccination and occurance of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia and additional time lag til the event is recorded.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Well I still wonder how they got the numbers so quickly even though its local when they got the numbers for AZ over a week or two ago, also noting that the AZ trials did involve the USA and they still cannot approve that.
As a number of sites in the USA are closing due to appointments being open, the hesitancy in the USA and elsewhere will grow due to the AZ and JJ clot public spat. Throw in the fact that AZ is one of the vaccines that requires minimal storage infrastructure, the developing world for the rest of 2021 may be an incubator for COVID, already politicians to encourage doses are proposing changes to vaccine strategy that on its face is illogical until you accept that they may just be PR to encourage the resistant population. Business houses are already mandating employees get vaccinated or separate themselves..
https://www.bahamas.com/tourism-reopening

Well, my comment to casinterest was only regarding J&J and the number of cases in the US. I don't understand why do you think there is something nefarious behind the additional cases found in the US over the last week. As I said there is a time lag between vaccination, occurance of TTS and confirmation of the case of TTS.
That the US authorities found them quickly, seems rather normal since they were looking for them (in a rather small population sample since people getting massif side effects out of 8 million people vaccinated with J&J should be a rather small group). I don't know if they found all cases of TTS but they certainly had good confidence the numbers wouldn't change in an order of magnitude that would effect their findings.

As for AZ, I can't comment why the AZ vaccine has not yet gotten EUA in the US but think that is mostly linked with supply (I believe AZ has overestimated yields everwere but could be wrong).
But what I can say, is that the US AZ trial had nothing to do with VTTS. With only 30'000 people (might remember the number wrong) you have only 15'000 people who got AZ jabs or max 30'000 people if the placebo group was also vaccinated with AZ after the trial. That number is way to small to be able to get any findings on possible side effect that occur in 1 in 100'000 cases or less. The VTTS with AZ is based on UK and EU findings (with additional Canadian and Australian cases I think)

As for vaccination hesitancy. I'm European (Swiss) and can't tell for the world. But for Europe my believe is that the right course was followed.
I think that most Europeans trust their health agencies and that transparent communication about risks with vaccines will do more to convince vaccine hesitant people to take a vaccine than any other strategy. I belive the worst option in Europe would be no communication/inaction and media regularly reporting about people dying after they had been vaccinated and explicitly or just suggesting a link between the two in each case.

Beat regards and stay safe,
Jonas

The issue with the J&J and other vaccines, is that we went through the stage 2 and 3 trials, and knew they were effective against Covid. The clotting issue is unfortunate, but the math was known at the start that the clotting issue was not that severe. The vaccines never would have made it out of Stage 3.

Covid Kills. the J&J and AZ vaccines need to be out there limiting the damage.

More people die in car accidents every day than have died from the J&J and AZ vaccines.
Yes we can now protect more because we have some signs of what to look for in J&J and AZ vaccinations ,but we still need them out there to limit the spread.

Our worst case is that Covid keeps going and mutating into something worse that kills even more.

In the future I think the mRNA vaccines will become the norm, but for now we need volume to end this pandemic.

casinterest wrote:

In the future I think the mRNA vaccines will become the norm, but for now we need volume to end this pandemic.

I agree. I wouldn’t normally argue for quantity over quality, but in the case of COVID-19, it’s more important we get something decent into as many people as possible, as soon as possible, and then start working on refining things.

aerolimani wrote:

casinterest wrote:

In the future I think the mRNA vaccines will become the norm, but for now we need volume to end this pandemic.

I agree. I wouldn’t normally argue for quantity over quality, but in the case of COVID-19, it’s more important we get something decent into as many people as possible, as soon as possible, and then start working on refining things.

I agree, volume is the #1 concern. I think attenuated virus vaccines will become something of the past.
I guess I'm the one cheerleader of the other new types (Adenovax, and the NovaVax style).

e.g., the Oxford team has the first really effective Malaria vaccine. They set a really high bar in efficacy (75%+) and it delivered 77%. Before Covid19, Malaria was the #1 disease I would have advocated to take care of. Now there will be an Adenovax for that disease:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ever-made/

On another topic:

What I didn't know is the old vaccine contracts for the USA were USA use only (see 6:25 on in this video):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFvmRcD03I

So older vaccines were USA only. I disagree with just breaking contracts as noted in the video. If you can just break a contract, what is the point of having terms in a contract?
Instead, get those vaccines approved for children and administer them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFvmRcD03I

Now I do like the idea of administering vaccines from US embassies. Heck, technically US warships are USA, setup clinics on say the WASP class helicopter carriers (hangar deck and flight deck) to administer. But I disagree with the easy premise of breaking contracts. Anyone who has read books by Bernstein knows knows keeping rule of law is critical for business growth long term. But nothing wrong with a work around (administer "from the US" at an embassy or from a warship which are both legally the USA, of course only where invited).

This is an aviation website. If we don't have business growth, we'll be stuck at current aviation demand for a long time.

Yet another vaccine topic:
I'm personally excited that NovaVax and Moderna are developing combined Flu/Covid19 jabs for a combined booster for both each year.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstoc ... NewsSearch

So while mRNA will be a large fraction of the vaccine market, I expect others to continue. We really needed the new vaccine types. That wasn't allowed as the regulatory authorities wouldn't take the risk on Adenovirus of mRNA vaccines. Now hopefully we can tackle malaria and then the viral forms we call the common cold.
Next should be parasites (e.g., African sleeping sickness). But I don't know anything about how to vaccinate for a parasite, a quick search shows that there are theories on how to create them:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9879734/

Lightsaber




Lightsaber

art wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

More good news on vaccines:
Only 32 people have been admitted to hospital with covid-19 more than three weeks after receiving at least one dose of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Oxford/AstraZeneca jabs, a study has found.

From: https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... z6shDPRjIq

We've posted numerous links on how vaccines slow transmission. If one dose keeps people out of the hospital, that is a benefit! e.g., the article points out to the oxygen shortage in India.

I remain a huge advocate of vaccinating as many as early as possible.

Lightsaber

I wonder how much trialling of extended intervals between 1st and 2nd jab is taking place, The data re: 1st jab protection and disease levels precipitating hospital treatment are so phenomenally good that I think we should be trying very hard to find out how much we can delay 2nd dose administration. Every 2nd jab given is a first jab not given.

4 months or so after vaccination started less than 15% of the world population has received any protection from COVID-19. That percentage could be accelerated greatly in the coming months if the interval between 1st and 2nd jabs could be extended.

I am a huge advocate of vaccinating as many as early as possible. To do that we need to know how far to the right we can push 2nd jabs. Are we taking urgent steps to find out?

In terms of the UK going back towards 1st doses..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56880376

40-44 year olds now being invited to book for their jabs...

Rgds

astuteman wrote:

art wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

More good news on vaccines:
Only 32 people have been admitted to hospital with covid-19 more than three weeks after receiving at least one dose of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Oxford/AstraZeneca jabs, a study has found.

From: https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... z6shDPRjIq

We've posted numerous links on how vaccines slow transmission. If one dose keeps people out of the hospital, that is a benefit! e.g., the article points out to the oxygen shortage in India.

I remain a huge advocate of vaccinating as many as early as possible.

Lightsaber

I wonder how much trialling of extended intervals between 1st and 2nd jab is taking place, The data re: 1st jab protection and disease levels precipitating hospital treatment are so phenomenally good that I think we should be trying very hard to find out how much we can delay 2nd dose administration. Every 2nd jab given is a first jab not given.

4 months or so after vaccination started less than 15% of the world population has received any protection from COVID-19. That percentage could be accelerated greatly in the coming months if the interval between 1st and 2nd jabs could be extended.

I am a huge advocate of vaccinating as many as early as possible. To do that we need to know how far to the right we can push 2nd jabs. Are we taking urgent steps to find out?

In terms of the UK going back towards 1st doses..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56880376

40-44 year olds now being invited to book for their jabs...

Rgds

That is great news. In my opinion, with AZ and Pfizer, the prioritization of first jabs has markedly slowed the spread, protecting everyone in the UK. Of course, no strategy is perfect. I believe the UK made the correct choice for the vaccines it is distributing.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/vaccines-sig ... nsmission/

Locally, everyone 16+ may book an appointment and there are plenty of appointments available:
myturn.ca.gov

A new topic:

I think the press is missing the mark on vaccine hesitancy. No one is convinced of anything in confrontation. I know so many coming up with every excuse not to get vacvinated. At this point it is being anti-vax without saying so.

Meh. If I can vaccinate my kids, ut is their problem. My modeling shows prolific spread of Covid19 among the unvaccinated until 75% are vaccinated.
California is at 45%:
https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... tribution/

From my observations, those that live in higher density buildings seem to be the most vaccine adverse... Rhoo Rhoo...


Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

I think the press is missing the mark on vaccine hesitancy. No one is convinced of anything in confrontation. I know so many coming up with every excuse not to get vacvinated. At this point it is being anti-vax without saying so.
Lightsaber

Add India to the mix, in most quarters the link below is not to a "reputable site" but my point here is to read some of the comments posted, one says that India was doing much better until they started mass vaccinations, now look at where they are? Unfortunately, no one there has the time to put out the numbers to quash such thoughts making the rounds, banning twitter post has little to no effect. The anti-vaxers are killing the ability to have meaningful discussions.....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... 0-day.html

lightsaber wrote:

astuteman wrote:

art wrote:

I wonder how much trialling of extended intervals between 1st and 2nd jab is taking place, The data re: 1st jab protection and disease levels precipitating hospital treatment are so phenomenally good that I think we should be trying very hard to find out how much we can delay 2nd dose administration. Every 2nd jab given is a first jab not given.

4 months or so after vaccination started less than 15% of the world population has received any protection from COVID-19. That percentage could be accelerated greatly in the coming months if the interval between 1st and 2nd jabs could be extended.

I am a huge advocate of vaccinating as many as early as possible. To do that we need to know how far to the right we can push 2nd jabs. Are we taking urgent steps to find out?

In terms of the UK going back towards 1st doses..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56880376

40-44 year olds now being invited to book for their jabs...

Rgds

That is great news. In my opinion, with AZ and Pfizer, the prioritization of first jabs has markedly slowed the spread, protecting everyone in the UK. Of course, no strategy is perfect. I believe the UK made the correct choice for the vaccines it is distributing.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/vaccines-sig ... nsmission/

Locally, everyone 16+ may book an appointment and there are plenty of appointments available:
myturn.ca.gov

A new topic:

I think the press is missing the mark on vaccine hesitancy. No one is convinced of anything in confrontation. I know so many coming up with every excuse not to get vacvinated. At this point it is being anti-vax without saying so.

Meh. If I can vaccinate my kids, ut is their problem. My modeling shows prolific spread of Covid19 among the unvaccinated until 75% are vaccinated.
California is at 45%:
https://www.latimes.com/projects/califo ... tribution/

From my observations, those that live in higher density buildings seem to be the most vaccine adverse... Rhoo Rhoo...


Lightsaber

Not to nitpick you, Lightsaber - but I find the Bloomberg vaccine tracker to be more accurate for real-time vax #'s than the LA Times. California is at 47% partially vaccinated now, not 45%: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covi ... tribution/

The Bloomberg numbers match CDC data: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

lightsaber wrote:

I never thought California would be this vaccine hesitant.

Oh, my sweet summer child. Try being a pediatrician around here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/25/worl ... covid.html
The U.S. will send vaccine materials and other supplies to India, officials say.

lightsaber wrote:

So while mRNA will be a large fraction of the vaccine market, I expect others to continue. We really needed the new vaccine types. That wasn't allowed as the regulatory authorities wouldn't take the risk on Adenovirus of mRNA vaccines. Now hopefully we can tackle malaria and then the viral forms we call the common cold.

Next should be parasites (e.g., African sleeping sickness). But I don't know anything about how to vaccinate for a parasite, a quick search shows that there are theories on how to create them

What about sexually transmitted diseases like Gonorrhea, Syphilis, Chlamydia, etc? They seem to be especially adept at interfering with the immune system and preventing immunity.

lightsaber wrote:

I found links that Pfizer and Moderna would apply for full FDA approval and the biologics license application (BLA).
But have they? I couldn't find any application announcement, just "pending" or "expected" here is one link I picked just because it had Pfizer and Moderna in it.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/pfizer-r ... f-2021-fda

I'm in the Moderna vaccine trial. I was called in the last week of 2020 from the trial center to tell me that the study was being unblinded at the beginning of January. I didn't bother unblinding at the first available time, because I suspected that I got the vaccine and not the placebo. I ended up getting unblinded on the first week of March, because I got a call on a Thursday afternoon saying Moderna wanted everyone unblinded by the end of the next week. I turned out to be correct, and I was given my vaccination card at the unblinding visit. My guess is that Moderna has either already submitted it's application for full regulatory approval or will shortly. I'm assuming Pfizer has also applied for full approval too.

DocLightning wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I never thought California would be this vaccine hesitant.

Oh, my sweet summer child. Try being a pediatrician around here.

Anti-vax is very popular in the yoga, meditation, zen, healthy eating, vegan crowd. Unless I’m wrong, I thought California had a fair few of those folks living there.

aerolimani wrote:

DocLightning wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I never thought California would be this vaccine hesitant.

Oh, my sweet summer child. Try being a pediatrician around here.

Anti-vax is very popular in the yoga, meditation, zen, healthy eating, vegan crowd. Unless I’m wrong, I thought California had a fair few of those folks living there.

Interesting, talking(not practicing) too much about yoga and healthy eating is give away about ones health condition. They should take first.

aerolimani wrote:

DocLightning wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I never thought California would be this vaccine hesitant.

Oh, my sweet summer child. Try being a pediatrician around here.

Anti-vax is very popular in the yoga, meditation, zen, healthy eating, vegan crowd. Unless I’m wrong, I thought California had a fair few of those folks living there.

I know there are groups spreading out vaccines in California and clusters of unvaccinated. I just didn't expect to hit the wall so early.

With Ro between 3 and 4, there is no way having 50% of the bodies vaccinated will prevent spread. My modeling shows it protects most of the vacvinated. e.g., every one of my adult neighbors has the vaccine until 3 homes away and they all had Covid19. I will encourage them to get vacvinated, but they are if the belief they had it, so why worry. By have it I mean everyone in the family.

My work is incredibly pro-vax. Only the technicians have any resistance and now that J&J is available again, I see/help them sign up as that crowd, at my work location, prefers one and done.

Sigh... this means only by vaccinating our children can we protect them. I wonder what is taking Pfizer approval?

Lightsaber

dtw2hyd wrote:

aerolimani wrote:

DocLightning wrote:

Oh, my sweet summer child. Try being a pediatrician around here.

Anti-vax is very popular in the yoga, meditation, zen, healthy eating, vegan crowd. Unless I’m wrong, I thought California had a fair few of those folks living there.

Interesting, talking(not practicing) too much about yoga and healthy eating is give away about ones health condition. They should take first.

I know many in this community and actually probably less of them are anti-vax that the image suggest. The people I know who are anti-vax are actually incredibly fit and healthy but in this culture many of the people think that all of the above makes them bulletproof from Covid. The same applies with the other vaccines such as MMR as an example.

The thing is that arguing with anti-vaxxers is like arguing with a flat earther, no matter what evidence you provide they will reject it.

What we need to to is get the ones who are hesitant over possible side effects and reactions to get it (media hasn't helped here). You can't convince the above and 80% of them are not anti-vax.

I looked at the numbers of weekly infections, hospitalisation, and death here in Switzerland.

For vaccination Switzerland is at the lower end of the EU Pack (26.3 jabs in 100 habitants; vaccine used Pfizer and Moderna). But among those over 80 64% are fully vaccinated and additional 10% had their first jab. For those between 70 and 79 the numbers are 41% and 28 % respectively.

In all, new infections, hospitalisation, and death, one can see the impact of vaccination of those over 70.

Comparing the weekly number of new infections with the maximum number I get for last week:

• over 80: 7% (compared to the max number of people over 80 that were infected in one week)
• between 70 and 79: 13%
• between 20 and 69: between 22% and 28%

This trend can bee seen over the last weeks with the numbers coming down for those over 70, and more of less stable for those between 20 and 69. And while those numbers look encouraging, the picture looks much worse for those under 20.

Last week children under 10 had the highest number of positive test we had yet in Switzerland (100%) and for those between 10 and 20 I get 43% last week.
And here too we have a trend with the number raising over the last weeks.

While the number of infection among kids under 10 is still lower than in the other age groups, they made up 5% of all infection last week compared to 1.9% over the entire pandemic.

One reason could simply be that those two age groups were much less tested earlier hence the trend wouldn't be worrying...but that would be the reassuring explanation.

Are similar trends noticeable in other countries? Have any of you read something about such trends and could share some knowledge?

If there is really an increase in infection among those under 20, wouldn't it make sense to prioritise vaccination of people with kids at home over people like myself without kids?

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas

Eiszeit wrote:

seb146 wrote:

I have heard some people say they do not want the covid shot because they are anti vax or they don't trust a vaccine that has been out only a short time or any number of reasons. The stock response is "what about smallpox vaccine and polio vaccine and measles vaccine" but, honestly, what about tetanus? Can we add that to the list?

since tetanus isn't transmittable I would not put it on the list, it is a vaccine only for personal benefit.

Well for one thing Tetanus vaccines aren't available by themselves. They are part of the DTaP, DTaP-IPV-HepB, TDaP, TD, and other combo shots. In the US adults are routinely given Tetanus boosters every 10 years. Along with it comes a booster dose of Diptheria toxoid and often Pertussis. Diptheria is an important disease to keep from coming back.

Second, it's incredibly expensive to treat people with Tetanus. There was an unvaccinated 5 year old boy in Oregon recently who had Tetanus. It cost the state of Oregon over $850,000 to treat him. I think taxpayers would disagree that Tetanus vaccination is just a personal choice.