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A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:51 pm

sabenapilot wrote:

The interesting thing is, this misrepresentation went on for the next 40+ years or so, after which the Tories blamed the EU for being 'taken into a direction they didn't want to go'.


I agree that mis-representation has occurred most notably from the start, but there also has been a great divide on on going treaty negotiations with the electorate having no say if they want to continue the integration into a ever closer union

sabenapilot wrote:

Reality is it's M. Thatcher who insisted on the Common market (=mutual recognition of national rules) to be transformed into a Single Market (=one multinational rule for all members)!


The reality is no really opposes a trade deal between the UK/EU, what some of us oppose is the greater influence of the Union in our everyday lives.

We talked about this prior but from memory Thatcher had to compromise on certain aspects ( I’m in OZ at the moment my PC with the info is at home in the UK and where I’m stay over Xmas internet service is limited) just can’t remember at the top of my head what they were. But I do recall that Thatcher was opposed to Maastricht and she gave an amazing speech in the Lords

sabenapilot wrote:
An educational exchange is also a cultural exchance, which does require some basic second language skills of the participating students, even if you can often follow the courses in English.
Second language skills of Brits are not exactly to be called optimal, hence the need to remain within the same linguistic culture, often serving as an echo chamber.
It explains why even highly intellectual people in the UK completely misread the EU all throughout these 4+ years of negotiating: lack of first hand sources in non-English speaking countries and a life long attitute of reasoning from a wrong point of view.


That might be one aspect of it, but I would not say is the only reason. I would imagine it has a lot to do with ethnic background. Just like there are more expats residents in AU/NZ that are in the EU combined
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:04 am

Frankly it's crazy that fishing has taken so much time, is mentioned so much in the deal, yet things are still totally unclear. How can the deal be very bad for both sides ? I found one possible reason :

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 79438.html

We have all heard about UK "fishermen" selling fish quotas to foreign companies, but apparently bartering also happened, and isn't covered by the new deal :

“When we were within the EU we used to trade fish with the EU and we used to swap fish that we didn't use with fish they didn't use, and that enabled us to put together an annual fishing plan," he said.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:23 am

A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:

The interesting thing is, this misrepresentation went on for the next 40+ years or so, after which the Tories blamed the EU for being 'taken into a direction they didn't want to go'.


I agree that mis-representation has occurred most notably from the start, but there also has been a great divide on on going treaty negotiations with the electorate having no say if they want to continue the integration into a ever closer union


Complete and utter nonsense. The UK government had a veto with every treaty. Each EU treaty was ratified by the UK parliament. The UK citizens haven't been consulted on many things in British politics directly. Why should there have been an exemption for the direction the EU was allegedly taken.

The truth is that the EU has been an easy target for over 40plus years for politicians to blame their own small and big mistakes. The great division between the poor and wealthy has not been solved by the UK's less than graceful exit from the EU.

So what is next to blame? Are you worried about that at all, or do you actually think something has been solved by Brexit? I am genual curious for the answer by you or another Brexiteer.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:34 am

Aesma wrote:
Frankly it's crazy that fishing has taken so much time, is mentioned so much in the deal, yet things are still totally unclear. How can the deal be very bad for both sides ? I found one possible reason :

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 79438.html

We have all heard about UK "fishermen" selling fish quotas to foreign companies, but apparently bartering also happened, and isn't covered by the new deal :

“When we were within the EU we used to trade fish with the EU and we used to swap fish that we didn't use with fish they didn't use, and that enabled us to put together an annual fishing plan," he said.


Why is it crazy? It was a welcome diversion from what was really happening and what was the real cost of Brexit.

I think in the end, the fishing industry a very good symbol of Brexit: every Brit is absolety worse off, some just a bit more than others. History will not look favorable on 2016-2020 British politics.

[quote]Mr Locker added: “When Boris Johnson and his government promised Brexit to the fishermen, he promised none of us would be worse off. And I can sit here now and tell you there is a considerable amount of fishing industry representatives and people, fisherman, small families, small communities, absolutely worse off by this deal."[/qiote]

From your linked article.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:32 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:

The interesting thing is, this misrepresentation went on for the next 40+ years or so, after which the Tories blamed the EU for being 'taken into a direction they didn't want to go'.


I agree that mis-representation has occurred most notably from the start, but there also has been a great divide on on going treaty negotiations with the electorate having no say if they want to continue the integration into a ever closer union


Complete and utter nonsense. The UK government had a veto with every treaty. Each EU treaty was ratified by the UK parliament. The UK citizens haven't been consulted on many things in British politics directly. Why should there have been an exemption for the direction the EU was allegedly taken.

The truth is that the EU has been an easy target for over 40plus years for politicians to blame their own small and big mistakes. The great division between the poor and wealthy has not been solved by the UK's less than graceful exit from the EU.

So what is next to blame? Are you worried about that at all, or do you actually think something has been solved by Brexit? I am genual curious for the answer by you or another Brexiteer.



Correct the UKGov signed off on new EU treaty but they didn’t give the electorate a say if we want to give new powers to the EU. As for veto it didn’t work when the UK used the nuclear option open to it

Why.......because being in the EU gave away our sovereignty to enter into vassalage which to many is a matter of national importance constitutionally as UK Parliament was no longer supreme and the Government of the day lied nationally that it would not


The aim of national government is to provide the stimulus to help people lift themselves out of povety the government can’t do it all there has to be some self help. Being outside the EU know gives the government the tools to try and change things not just for the wealthy but for all they have no restrictions being placed. Being out of the EU is not a cure all but it does give more options.

If the EU was a cure all then we would have no poverty within the union
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:09 am

I see that the SNP & DUP have both signaled that both plan to vote against the agreement

Effectively they are voting for no deal :rotfl:
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:27 am

This is interesting, although I am quite sceptical of poll’s it’s still interesting to see a snapshot over 40years

Polling history: 40 years of British views on 'in or out' of Europe


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/theconv ... rope-61250
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:59 am

A101 wrote:
I see that the SNP & DUP have both signaled that both plan to vote against the agreement

Effectively they are voting for no deal :rotfl:


For the SNP this is logical. The bigger the mess the UK government makes (or is perceived to make), the more likely the Scots will ote for independence. Moreover, why would the SNP want to be associated with a bad deal (at least for the Scots). The SNP will argue that they want to be with the EU and that's their alternative.
 
bennett123
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:23 am

A101

If all these UK governments were so opposed to Maastricht, Lisbon etc why did they sign up to them.

What reason is there to think that reducing poverty is the objective now.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:45 am

A101 wrote:

I agree that mis-representation has occurred most notably from the start, but there also has been a great divide on on going treaty negotiations with the electorate having no say if they want to continue the integration into a ever closer union


and...

A101 wrote:
Correct the UKGov signed off on new EU treaty but they didn’t give the electorate a say if we want to give new powers to the EU.


While I respect your desire for direct democracy, it does come across as chery picking because it's only limited to the EU question.

Remember that contrary to for instance Switzerland, the UK does not have a system of direct democracy: it is a far more common representative democracy, one of the FPTP type even.

But going with direct democracy even just for important constitutional matters, by the same logic there should have been quote some referendums in the past on other important changes to the UK's constitutional arrangements too... The idea somehow the EU is something special and should thus be put to a referendum, already gives away the fact their is a negative mindset towards it.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:55 am

bennett123 wrote:
A101

If all these UK governments were so opposed to Maastricht, Lisbon etc why did they sign up to them.


I didn’t say all those in Government were opposed, I only referee to Margaret Thatcher as here name was brought up earlier, but yes there was a faction within the Major Government how tried to stop Maastricht even went to court from memory



bennett123 wrote:
What reason is there to think that reducing poverty is the objective now.



Reducing poverty is alway a government objective, just might not be on everyone’s radar at the time
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:06 am

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:

I agree that mis-representation has occurred most notably from the start, but there also has been a great divide on on going treaty negotiations with the electorate having no say if they want to continue the integration into a ever closer union


and...

A101 wrote:
Correct the UKGov signed off on new EU treaty but they didn’t give the electorate a say if we want to give new powers to the EU.


While I respect your desire for direct democracy, it does come across as chery picking because it's only limited to the EU question.

Remember that contrary to for instance Switzerland, the UK does not have a system of direct democracy: it is a far more common representative democracy, one of the FPTP type even.

But going with direct democracy even just for important constitutional matters, by the same logic there should have been quote some referendums in the past on other important changes to the UK's constitutional arrangements too... The idea somehow the EU is something special and should thus be put to a referendum, already gives away the fact their is a negative mindset towards it.



I don’t know about you but if the government were handing supreme parliamentary & Judicial powers to another nation or organisation without foreign a shoot, I would want the people to have a direct say in the matter as it’s is limiting the supreme powers within the UK.

But then again Ted Heath wanted a referenda on the subject until he realised he didn’t have the will of the electorate
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:15 am

bennett123 wrote:
A101
What reason is there to think that reducing poverty is the objective now.


That won't happen for a whole lot of reasons:

1 firstly, because it's just not the right government to do this: reducing inequality is not in their DNA, so to say; they believe in 'other' things.
Just have a look at the past 40 years to get a good idea of what is important to Tories: it's not leveling up, is it?

2 secondly there's no money for that anyway.
Covid and Brexit both cut deep into the UK's budget which was already running a massive deficit even without them.

3- the leveling up rethoric doesn't go well with the Global Briitain ambitions either.
The core problem of the UK's economy is its low productivity which will quickly render it uncompetitive if wages were to be significantly lifted.
If you'd want to do so anyway, the UK would need to become a protectionist economy, yet Global Britain is exactly about the opposite!
It's just not possible to do these 2 things at once because Britain's economy is not in shape for that: the UK is not Germany for instance.

Anyone taking a guess which of the 2 policies is going to take priority for the rest of this parliament where the Tories have a large majority?
The perfect explanation is alrady there, ready for it to be used for the next few years until people are completely sick of it:
"Despite being sovereign and free now, sadly there's no money for all our social ambitions so we logically need to make it first; luckily we now have the ability thanks to Brexit to make all necessary regulatory changes so we can modernize our economy so we can all benefit from it in future." And so before you know it, traditional Tory policies, including a new round of austerity will be back...

You won't fix the problems of the UK by regolatory modernisation; you'll only be able to fix it by modernising its shabby public infrastructure and investing in its services and eduction system.
But already now you can see that the mindset of this government is on going for the first option, not surprisingly because the second option would have to be paid by their party donors.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:26 am

For something UK has lower income per capita compared to the countries in Europe even ROI:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... y_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

A big part of Brexit inmy eyes is the fact that UK working class do not get it better.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:27 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

I agree that mis-representation has occurred most notably from the start, but there also has been a great divide on on going treaty negotiations with the electorate having no say if they want to continue the integration into a ever closer union


Complete and utter nonsense. The UK government had a veto with every treaty. Each EU treaty was ratified by the UK parliament. The UK citizens haven't been consulted on many things in British politics directly. Why should there have been an exemption for the direction the EU was allegedly taken.

The truth is that the EU has been an easy target for over 40plus years for politicians to blame their own small and big mistakes. The great division between the poor and wealthy has not been solved by the UK's less than graceful exit from the EU.

So what is next to blame? Are you worried about that at all, or do you actually think something has been solved by Brexit? I am genual curious for the answer by you or another Brexiteer.



Correct the UKGov signed off on new EU treaty but they didn’t give the electorate a say if we want to give new powers to the EU. As for veto it didn’t work when the UK used the nuclear option open to it

Why.......because being in the EU gave away our sovereignty to enter into vassalage which to many is a matter of national importance constitutionally as UK Parliament was no longer supreme and the Government of the day lied nationally that it would not


The aim of national government is to provide the stimulus to help people lift themselves out of poverty the government can’t do it all there has to be some self help. Being outside the EU know gives the government the tools to try and change things not just for the wealthy but for all they have no restrictions being placed. Being out of the EU is not a cure all but it does give more options.

If the EU was a cure all then we would have no poverty within the union


Ok, you do not see any new scape coat looming and you are not afraid of such a scenario. Or at least you decline to answer that question. A question that is at the core of the Brexit debate, the elephant in the room so to say.

The rhetoric of the EU giving away anyone's sovereignty and turning its members into a vassal state is ludicrous, five years of given information on here and you still haven't grasped it. Ah well, some will never learn I guess.

What the aim is of a national government can be. debated, you gave your opinion which is fine, I even agree with it to a certain extend. But here is the thing, the EU has no say in taxes, social security, education etc. etc. etc. And you will not come up with the nonsense of taking jobs, right? Even you know that is complete and utter bull, no evidence for that.

So what options does being outside of the EU give the UK government that they haven't had in the last 40 years? Five concrete examples to close the wealth gap and make life for the underside of British society better, will do.
And how did the EU restrict the UK on the social front?

So give us the causal link please, if we agree on the problem how is being out of the EU going to solve anything?

To compare:
World: 38,0
EU: 30,4
UK: 32.4
The Netherlands: 25,8
Ireland: 28,9
Switzerland: 28,7
Australia: 30,3
United States: 47,0
Singapore: 46,4

Link to the data used

Given these numbers, if there is any causal link between the Gini-index and the EU, it is that being an EU-member lowers the Gini number. And I am not saying there is a causal link, because the EU has no say in domestic issues. So very curious to your answer what the UK can do now, which wasn't possible in the last 40 years in regards to "people lifting themselves out of poverty".
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:35 am

A101 wrote:
I don’t know about you but if the government were handing supreme parliamentary & Judicial powers to another nation or organisation without foreign a shoot, I would want the people to have a direct say in the matter as it’s is limiting the supreme powers within the UK.


As said, quite a few other government decisions with constitutional impact should urgently be put to a referendum too then, because just as Brexiteers have been shown throughout the past 5 years not to understand the way the EU works in relation to the UK, it shows they do not really know how the rest of the UK works either...

Stuck in some 19th century mindset about a single UK, with just 1 parliament, having full sovereigty over it's full territory is just not matching very well with the 21st century reality, and that's not just the case when it comes to the EU relations, it's also applicable to NI, to Scotland, and probably soon also to Gibraltar if one is to take the information on the talks between Spain, the EU and Gibraltar as an indication of which way the final solution will go there...

The UK as a nation state is slowly evaporating, a process which has begun some 30 years ago or so, and is only accelerating.
When in say a liftetime from now people will look back at Brexit, it will be judged to have been nothing but a symptom of this demise, a sort of a convulsive attempt by those who fell their country fading away at gaining back control over it. Ironically, it will only accelerate its disintegration IMHO, the first signs being the polls in Scotland which now show a steady majority for independance, the fact NI is already all but signed away, ready for when the day finally comes that it leaves the Union and very unexpectely to me Gibraltar franatically looking to save itself, whereas you'd normally expect to find the staunchest of nostalgic supporters of a nation state abroad. Sad as it makes me saying so, but I wouldn't dare to bet a pound on the UK still being around in it's present form in another 30 years from now!
Last edited by sabenapilot on Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:47 am

olle wrote:
For something UK has lower income per capita compared to the countries in Europe even ROI:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... y_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

A big part of Brexit inmy eyes is the fact that UK working class do not get it better.


That is for sure a fact and as has been said, the notorious low productivity of the British economy is preventing any structural changes to the wage squeeze which has prevented ordinary people from benefiting from any economic growth over the past decade or so, as it would immediately make the UK's economy uncompetitive right at a moment when it is having to go it alone on the world stage in the middle of a global pandemic and a massive recession as a consequence!

"Made in Britain" is often not the same quality label like "Made in Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, or Italy" is throughout the rest of the world, so the UK needs to have it from competing on price and that's a tough concept in a globalised world where you have others which can often make it cheaper and are fast catching up on skills and competence as well to the point they are now even overtaking the UK levels which haven't risen much.
Throw open the borders and the recipe for disaster is there. It's what happened to the UK some 15 years ago on a fairly limited scale within the EU and believe it or not, but this government is planning on doing it all over again, but now on a global scale even, expacting a different outcome to a UK which has just had to cope with a decade of austerity and a Covid pandemic! :banghead:

Good luck with all the promises made by Brexiteers to those disenchanted voters of theirs.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:24 am

sabenapilot wrote:
Sad as it makes me saying so, but I wouldn't dare to bet a pound on the UK still being around in it's present form in another 30 years from now!


The same can be said of the EU and its own member states. The whole map probably will change in 30 years. Poland and Hungary will cause huge damage to the EU project and have already.

See :

EU identity crisis: Poland, Hungary and the fight over Brussels’ values
The dispute over the rule of law in some countries is damaging the union’s moral legitimacy

www.ft.com/content/bfa58276-1868-4011-9891-ccd363dc68dc

Also :

For Europe, losing Britain is bad. Keeping Hungary and Poland could be worse

The populists of Budapest and Warsaw are blackmailing the EU over the rule of law. They cannot be allowed to succeed

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/ ... d-be-worse

We shall see how this temporary kicking the can down the alley pans out but maybe the horse has already bolted.

Then you have Spain and their Catalonia issues and no doubt that Spain will see major changes over the next 30 years.

Scottish independence is not going to happen unless they truly want a double whammy to their economy. It was wealth based on oil and gas. Maybe the EU will pump money in ?

See here :


Can Scotland afford independence?

How would an independent Scotland have fared during the pandemic? We found out this week on the annual release of Gers, which adds up all Scottish spending and taxes and states the size of the gap. This year it's estimated at about 27 per cent of GDP, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which would make it the worst-hit country in the developed world. It's unlikely that a small country could sustain a deficit of this size even in a pandemic: the UK has been hit bad, but we have the pound and the Bank of England's QE to lower the cost of issuing debt. For a country of five million to run a deficit of 27pc would be far, far harder.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/Can-Scotlan ... dependence
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:26 am

LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
I see that the SNP & DUP have both signaled that both plan to vote against the agreement

Effectively they are voting for no deal :rotfl:


For the SNP this is logical. The bigger the mess the UK government makes (or is perceived to make), the more likely the Scots will ote for independence. Moreover, why would the SNP want to be associated with a bad deal (at least for the Scots). The SNP will argue that they want to be with the EU and that's their alternative.


Makes perfect sense for the DUP as well since I think they would prefer a no deal. They have been rather vocal about not accepting any different laws in NI compared to GB (apart from abortion and gay rights).
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:37 am

Bostrom wrote:
LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
I see that the SNP & DUP have both signaled that both plan to vote against the agreement

Effectively they are voting for no deal :rotfl:


For the SNP this is logical. The bigger the mess the UK government makes (or is perceived to make), the more likely the Scots will ote for independence. Moreover, why would the SNP want to be associated with a bad deal (at least for the Scots). The SNP will argue that they want to be with the EU and that's their alternative.


Makes perfect sense for the DUP as well since I think they would prefer a no deal. They have been rather vocal about not accepting any different laws in NI compared to GB (apart from abortion and gay rights).


Sadly the DUP are a law unto themselves and it would be better if Westminster could just impose things on them. Especially with regards to the two issues you mention. Their position will actually weaken over time and they will pay the price for their actions in the end.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:01 pm

OA260 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Sad as it makes me saying so, but I wouldn't dare to bet a pound on the UK still being around in it's present form in another 30 years from now!


The same can be said of the EU and its own member states. The whole map probably will change in 30 years. Poland and Hungary will cause huge damage to the EU project and have already.

See :

EU identity crisis: Poland, Hungary and the fight over Brussels’ values
The dispute over the rule of law in some countries is damaging the union’s moral legitimacy

http://www.ft.com/content/bfa58276-1868 ... d363dc68dc

Also :

For Europe, losing Britain is bad. Keeping Hungary and Poland could be worse

The populists of Budapest and Warsaw are blackmailing the EU over the rule of law. They cannot be allowed to succeed

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... d-be-worse

We shall see how this temporary kicking the can down the alley pans out but maybe the horse has already bolted.

Then you have Spain and their Catalonia issues and no doubt that Spain will see major changes over the next 30 years.

Scottish independence is not going to happen unless they truly want a double whammy to their economy. It was wealth based on oil and gas. Maybe the EU will pump money in ?

See here :


Can Scotland afford independence?

How would an independent Scotland have fared during the pandemic? We found out this week on the annual release of Gers, which adds up all Scottish spending and taxes and states the size of the gap. This year it's estimated at about 27 per cent of GDP, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which would make it the worst-hit country in the developed world. It's unlikely that a small country could sustain a deficit of this size even in a pandemic: the UK has been hit bad, but we have the pound and the Bank of England's QE to lower the cost of issuing debt. For a country of five million to run a deficit of 27pc would be far, far harder.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Can- ... dependence


If you want a treat about the EU viability and moral issues with Poland and Hungary, open a new treat for it. The EU has seen much worse crises and always survived, so I would be careful to predict its doom.

As for Scotland, we will see if they will gain their independence and will join the EU. A lot of it will depend on how Westminster will tread the Scotts.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:49 pm

Dutchy wrote:
OA260 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Sad as it makes me saying so, but I wouldn't dare to bet a pound on the UK still being around in it's present form in another 30 years from now!


The same can be said of the EU and its own member states. The whole map probably will change in 30 years. Poland and Hungary will cause huge damage to the EU project and have already.

See :

EU identity crisis: Poland, Hungary and the fight over Brussels’ values
The dispute over the rule of law in some countries is damaging the union’s moral legitimacy

http://www.ft.com/content/bfa58276-1868 ... d363dc68dc

Also :

For Europe, losing Britain is bad. Keeping Hungary and Poland could be worse

The populists of Budapest and Warsaw are blackmailing the EU over the rule of law. They cannot be allowed to succeed

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... d-be-worse

We shall see how this temporary kicking the can down the alley pans out but maybe the horse has already bolted.

Then you have Spain and their Catalonia issues and no doubt that Spain will see major changes over the next 30 years.

Scottish independence is not going to happen unless they truly want a double whammy to their economy. It was wealth based on oil and gas. Maybe the EU will pump money in ?

See here :


Can Scotland afford independence?

How would an independent Scotland have fared during the pandemic? We found out this week on the annual release of Gers, which adds up all Scottish spending and taxes and states the size of the gap. This year it's estimated at about 27 per cent of GDP, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which would make it the worst-hit country in the developed world. It's unlikely that a small country could sustain a deficit of this size even in a pandemic: the UK has been hit bad, but we have the pound and the Bank of England's QE to lower the cost of issuing debt. For a country of five million to run a deficit of 27pc would be far, far harder.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Can- ... dependence


If you want a treat about the EU viability and moral issues with Poland and Hungary, open a new treat for it. The EU has seen much worse crises and always survived, so I would be careful to predict its doom.

As for Scotland, we will see if they will gain their independence and will join the EU. A lot of it will depend on how Westminster will tread the Scotts.


No need for multiple threads. I think you mean threads and not treats. The subject is the EU and Brexit and its consequences. If people start talking about Scottish Independence and Irish unity as above then we can have a thread for everyone but that would be too exhaustive for what is a complicated net of various issues involving the UK EU and wider relationship and implications. You cant start mentioning other issues keeping it in one thread then ask for multiple threads of your choosing. That would be ''cherry picking'' and '' having your cake and eating it'' :)
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:51 pm

OA260 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Sad as it makes me saying so, but I wouldn't dare to bet a pound on the UK still being around in it's present form in another 30 years from now!


The same can be said of the EU and its own member states.


Contrary to the UK, the EU is not a nation state; it's an international institution which has sovereignty bestowed upon it by formal delegation by its memberstates.
As the UK has shown (and Greenland before it), you can end such membership: all it needed is a notifaction and a 2 year waiting period. Done...
At least if you have a clear view of what you want at the end of it, and not descend in a domestic infight to which the EU is no party whatsoever. Article 50 is drawn up for a country which has made up its mind and has a clear plan for an alternative way, it's not designed with a memberstate in mind making its mind up (and changing it several times) during the transition period.

OA260 wrote:
Scottish independence is not going to happen unless they truly want a double whammy to their economy.

If your argument against Scottish independence is that it doesn't make any economic sense, then you better look at Brexit again: there's no compelling economic case to be made for it either.
clearly when people feel they need to break free from 'Brussels bureacrats' or 'the gang in Westminster', they are driven by emotions, not economic reality.
Besides, contrary to the UK, Scottland won't have to go it alone should it decide to split from England: it will be welcomed back to the European family and be able to draw on EU funding.
Just have a good look around in Eastern Europe to see how real leveling up looks like and compare that to how much of the UK outside of London still looks like today, years after consecutive British govenments promissed they'd level them up...
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:54 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Besides, contrary to the UK, Scottland won't have to go it alone should it decide to split from England: it will be welcomed back to the European family and be able to draw on EU funding.
..



Do you have a link to that declaration from the EU or policy because I have not seen it?
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:00 pm

You have to google back for Juncker declaration at that time. Concerning Poland and Hungary, i am eagerly waiting for them their article 50 notification ;)
 
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:28 pm

Olddog wrote:
You have to google back for Juncker declaration at that time. Concerning Poland and Hungary, i am eagerly waiting for them their article 50 notification ;)


I cant find any official declaration from the EU or change to EU policy. Only various peoples opinions and remarks of aspirations. Nothing more then diplomacy speak.

Of course Juncker is old news . If Ursula von der leyen were to currently issue a statement to that effect then it would be more then fantasy football. I can say I want Israel to join the EU but it would be nothing more then aspirations.
 
art
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:29 pm

Dutchy wrote:
OA260 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Sad as it makes me saying so, but I wouldn't dare to bet a pound on the UK still being around in it's present form in another 30 years from now!


The same can be said of the EU and its own member states. The whole map probably will change in 30 years. Poland and Hungary will cause huge damage to the EU project and have already.

See :

EU identity crisis: Poland, Hungary and the fight over Brussels’ values
The dispute over the rule of law in some countries is damaging the union’s moral legitimacy

http://www.ft.com/content/bfa58276-1868 ... d363dc68dc

Also :

For Europe, losing Britain is bad. Keeping Hungary and Poland could be worse

The populists of Budapest and Warsaw are blackmailing the EU over the rule of law. They cannot be allowed to succeed

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... d-be-worse

We shall see how this temporary kicking the can down the alley pans out but maybe the horse has already bolted.

Then you have Spain and their Catalonia issues and no doubt that Spain will see major changes over the next 30 years.

Scottish independence is not going to happen unless they truly want a double whammy to their economy. It was wealth based on oil and gas. Maybe the EU will pump money in ?

See here :


Can Scotland afford independence?

How would an independent Scotland have fared during the pandemic? We found out this week on the annual release of Gers, which adds up all Scottish spending and taxes and states the size of the gap. This year it's estimated at about 27 per cent of GDP, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which would make it the worst-hit country in the developed world. It's unlikely that a small country could sustain a deficit of this size even in a pandemic: the UK has been hit bad, but we have the pound and the Bank of England's QE to lower the cost of issuing debt. For a country of five million to run a deficit of 27pc would be far, far harder.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Can- ... dependence


If you want a treat about the EU viability and moral issues with Poland and Hungary, open a new treat for it. The EU has seen much worse crises and always survived, so I would be careful to predict its doom.

As for Scotland, we will see if they will gain their independence and will join the EU. A lot of it will depend on how Westminster will tread the Scotts.


I see change and self determination as natural in a world of dynamic culture and politics. The values and desires of countries alter as time goes by. Some countries will choose to secede from groupings of countries, some will choose to join groupings.

I am a UK citizen but see no reason for the countries in this political bloc never changing their status. Having seen the problems associated with the UK leaving the EU, I hope that the people of Scotland will not be as naive as the UK majority was when choosing to forge a path outside of the EU. If the EU moves in a direction that does not suit any of its current members or a member noves in a way that does not suit the EU, let them go their own way, too IMO.
Last edited by art on Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:36 pm

OA260 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
You have to google back for Juncker declaration at that time. Concerning Poland and Hungary, i am eagerly waiting for them their article 50 notification ;)


I cant find any official declaration from the EU or change to EU policy. Only various peoples opinions and remarks of aspirations. Nothing more then diplomacy speak.

Of course Juncker is old news . If Ursula von der leyen were to currently issue a statement to that effect then it would be more then fantasy football. I can say I want Israel to join the EU but it would be nothing more then aspirations.


You don't get it: the official position of the EU is if scotland becomes legally and independent state, it will be welcome to start the article 49 process. That official position is the EU position, not the temporary one of Juncker of VdL.
 
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:39 pm

Olddog wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
You have to google back for Juncker declaration at that time. Concerning Poland and Hungary, i am eagerly waiting for them their article 50 notification ;)


I cant find any official declaration from the EU or change to EU policy. Only various peoples opinions and remarks of aspirations. Nothing more then diplomacy speak.

Of course Juncker is old news . If Ursula von der leyen were to currently issue a statement to that effect then it would be more then fantasy football. I can say I want Israel to join the EU but it would be nothing more then aspirations.


You don't get it: the official position of the EU is if scotland becomes legally and independent state, it will be welcome to start the article 49 process. That official position is the EU position, not the temporary one of Juncker of VdL.


Yet no one can provide a link ? And despite your suggestion of Google it returns a negative. If such an official declaration was made and indeed EU policy it would not be on the back of a crisp packet.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:46 pm

Letters: EU deal will be a bitter blow for the Yes camp

THE news that a trade deal has been struck between the UK and the EU must have come as a big disappointment for the hardline Brexiters and Nationalists alike. However, the vast majority of people who respected the democratic will of the people (in the 2014 and 2016 referendums) will breathe a huge sigh of relief that common sense has prevailed with give and take from both sides being the order of the day.

For example, many of those who voted to leave wanted a Brexit trade deal but did not to want to be dragged into a political union with Europe which would have prevented the world’s fifth-largest economy striking individual major deals with other other countries and large trading blocs like the Tans-Pacific Partnership.

On the other hand the nationalists are now up the creek without a paddle with nothing to offer other than chaos – outside the UK internal market and outside the EU market. Indeed the latest opinion polls in Scotland were taken when a no-deal Brexit seemed most likely, and even unavoidable. The spotlight will now focus on the populist SNP dismal performance in power as a Brexit deal will deprive Ms Sturgeon of a vital source of deflection and grievance.

Ian Lakin, Aberdeen AB13.

www.heraldscotland.com/news/18972326.le ... -yes-camp/
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:10 pm

OA260 wrote:
Yet no one can provide a link ? And despite your suggestion of Google it returns a negative. If such an official declaration was made and indeed EU policy it would not be on the back of a crisp packet.


The official policy of the EU has primarily been to avoid meddling in the constitutional arrangements of other democratic states, OA260, be they EU member states or other. This policy is not on paper, it is based on diplomatic traditions, so to say.: Ne verietur.
You can be sure that if/when a second referendum on independance will be held in Scotland, the EU (just as most other countries, to the exception of Russia most probably) which will do its very best to break up the UK) will stay well clear of it too, at least until the outcome is firmly known.The remarks by Junkers in regard to Scotland were a one off and IMHO totally inappropriiate.

FWIW - Do you also have a comment on my remark that economic consequences of any cessation are not a good ground to judge the outcome with, be it in case of Brexit, or indeed Scotland's independance, or do you intend to limit yourself to just asking for confirmation on anecdotical side remarks?
The polls in Scotland seem to indicate people there have changed their attitute towards independance and seem to think the price to be paid is worthwhile, especially as a decision to pay it may be seen as an investment to recover (part of) the economic loss from being taken out of the EU against their will.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:13 pm

Junker only pointed out, that if Scotland seeks independence, entry into the EU would be easier, as the remaining UK could not block the entry after Brexit. Which is a simple fact.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:24 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Yet no one can provide a link ? And despite your suggestion of Google it returns a negative. If such an official declaration was made and indeed EU policy it would not be on the back of a crisp packet.


The official policy of the EU has primarily been to avoid meddling in the constitutional arrangements of other democratic states, OA260, be they EU member states or other. that policy is not on paper, it is based on case law so to say.: Ne verietur.
You can be sure that if/when a second referendum on independance will be held in Scotland, the EU (just as most other countries, to the exception of Russia most probably) which will do its very best to break up the UK) will stay well clear of it too, at least until the outcome is firmly known.The remarks by Junkers in regard to Scotland were a one off and IMHO totally inappropriiate.

FWIW - Do you also have a comment on my remark that economic consequences of any cessation are not a good ground to judge the outcome with, be it in case of Brexit, or indeed Scotland's independance, or do you intend to limit yourself to just asking for confirmation on anecdotical side remarks?
The polls in Scotland seem to indicate people there have changed their attitute towards independance and seem to think the price to be paid is worthwhile, especially as a decision to pay it may be seen as an investment to recover (part of) the economic loss from being taken out of the EU against their will.


Agree with your remarks about things being inappropriate .

I certainly would not limit myself just asking for confirmation as I have on multiple posts provided links to back up what I am saying without the need for you or others to request it. Indeed as we have seen in history economics is not the sole motivation for joining or leaving anything. Sometimes you need to take an economic hit to free yourself from whatever you perceive you need freed from.

As we can see from an opinion of a Scot from Aberdeen in the letter above now a deal is done and things settle down moods might change. The gentlemen makes good points. We will see what happens in May it will certainly be interesting dont you think?

In other news Sky News is reporting that the ERG has given support for the deal.
 
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:24 pm

seahawk wrote:
Junker only pointed out, that if Scotland seeks independence, entry into the EU would be easier, as the remaining UK could not block the entry after Brexit. Which is a simple fact.


The EU is in principle open for any European country willing to join and living up to the standards expected from an EU memberstate, including accepting the full 'acquis communautaire'.

http://en.euabc.com/word/12#:~:text=Acq ... A%20EU-law.

The hope of unionist in Britain has long been that Spain would never accept an independent Scotland to be in the EU as it would set a precendent, but in fact Brexit makes it somewhat easier now, since a break up of the United Kingdom would happen outside of the EU and Scotland as an independent state would be a 'fait accompli' before it ever applied to (re)join.
Spain's government is on record for having said it would NOT prevent an independent Scotland to rejoin the EU.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain ... KKCN1NP25P
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:29 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Junker only pointed out, that if Scotland seeks independence, entry into the EU would be easier, as the remaining UK could not block the entry after Brexit. Which is a simple fact.


The EU is in principle open for any European country willing to join and living up to the standards expected from an EU memberstate, including accepting the full 'acquis communautaire'.

http://en.euabc.com/word/12#:~:text=Acq ... A%20EU-law.

The hope of unionist in Britain has long been that Spain would never accept an independent Scotland to be in the EU as it would set a precendent, but in fact Brexit makes it somewhat easier now, since a break up of the United Kingdom would happen outside of the EU and Scotland as an independent state would be a 'fait accompli' before it ever applied to (re)join.
Spain's government is on record for having said it would NOT prevent an independent Scotland to rejoin the EU.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain ... KKCN1NP25P



Spain would actually be opening a can of worms domestically. So they should be careful what they wish for. The violence that they had to deal with was substantial. The EU found themselves in a very uncomfortable position when the Catalans were begging for the EU to stop them being beaten on the streets.
 
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:38 pm

OA260 wrote:
As we can see from an opinion of a Scot from Aberdeen in the letter above now a deal is done and things settle down moods might change. The gentlemen makes good points. We will see what happens in May it will certainly be interesting dont you think?


It's one opinion and purely anecdotical until confirmed by a poll or a vote.

Polls since the Brexit referendum seem to indicate support for Scottish independance has only grown as time went by and the UK increasingly hardened the version of Brexit it persued.

The deal now concluded is actually a very hard Brexit, with a very thin FTA for goods only, so other than taking away the incertainty for the UK economy and protecting the EU's massive trade surplus with the UK, it does little to bridge the gap with a Scotland that overwhelmingly voted to remain in the SM, in the CU and in the EU itself.
On top of that, the deal on fish is not really of the sort where there's much to write home about for Scotland either and BoJo seems to have thrown not only Scotland's fishing industry under the bus, he has also sold out its agricultural industry by accepting Scottish potato seeds would explicitly be banned from export to the EU, contrary to most other plant exports (from England).
Not exactly a behaviour Unionists in Scotland can use as proof of how good Westminster takes care of Scottish interests, is it?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... l-says-snp
Last edited by sabenapilot on Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:45 pm

OA260 wrote:
Spain would actually be opening a can of worms domestically. So they should be careful what they wish for.


if you want to give advice to Madrid in order to help them avoid making a strategic mistake in your view, I suggest you take this up with the government of Spain then, which is now no longer a rightwing government BTW as was the case when Spain made clear it would no longer object to any Scottish EU membership, but a Labour government, which is relying on Catalan votes in parliament even.... With that in mind, I doubt they will share your opinion and reverse the Spanish policy on Scotland's potential EU membership.

I think they are currently far more preoccupied with sorting out the mess at the border with Gibraltar, which is basically throwing itself into Spanish arms now, believe it or not!
Last edited by sabenapilot on Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:50 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
OA260 wrote:
As we can see from an opinion of a Scot from Aberdeen in the letter above now a deal is done and things settle down moods might change. The gentlemen makes good points. We will see what happens in May it will certainly be interesting dont you think?


It's one opinion and purely anecdotical until confirmed by a poll or a vote.

Polls since the Brexit referendum seem to indicate support for Scottish independance has only grown as time went by and the UK increasingly hardened the version of Brexit is persued.

The deal now concluded is actually a very hard Brexit, with a very thin FTA for goods only, so other than taking away the incertainty for the UK economy and protecting the EU's massive trade surplus with the UK, it does little to bridge the gap with a Scotland that overwhelmingly voted to remain in the SM, in the CU and in the EU itself.
On top of that, the deal on fish is not really of the sort where there's much to write home about for Scotland either and BoJo seems to have thrown not only Scotland's fishing industry under the bus, he has also sold out its agricultural industry by accepting Scottish potato seeds would explicitly be banned from export to the EU, contrary to most other plant exports.
Not exactly a behaviour Unionists in Scotland can use as proof of how good Westminster takes care of Scottish interests, is it?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... l-says-snp


Well May will see the first reactions so should see what impact the deal has had. The polls were of course going to show increases during the rhetoric of 4 years of Brexit . The thing is will the majority of Scottish voters back the fisherman or are there more important issues that they feel they need to vote for or against.
 
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:51 pm

So now it appears the final days of the dysfunctional 'marriage' of the UK and EU are here with the final settlement agreement of a messy 'divorce'. A lot of screaming and shouting, disputed sorting out of who gets the furniture, house, cars and kids (here trade with NI/ROI, fishing rights), figuring out the alimony and child support, the couple happy in one way but mostly very unhappy in other ways. A lot of this started with the collapse of Syria, countries in Africa and other countries with mass migration to Europe for their protections and social welfare to survive with reactions to stop it, globalization of jobs, control by the very rich and corporations and people wanting to go back to the 'glory days' of what is a crashed empire. It will be interesting to see how the UK and even the EU evolves, or perhaps devolves, in the next 5-10-20 years.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:53 pm

It seems Spain learned one trick from France, and should make the frontier to Gibraltar a pain to go through.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:57 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Spain would actually be opening a can of worms domestically. So they should be careful what they wish for.


if you want to give advice to Madrid in order to help them avoid making a strategic mistake in your view, I suggest you take this up with the government of Spain then, which is now no longer a rightwing government BTW as was the case when Spain made clear it would no longer object to any Scottish EU membership, but a Labour government, which is relying on Catalan votes in parliament even.... With that in mind, I doubt they will share your opinion and reverse the Spanish policy on Scotland's potential EU membership.

I think they are currently far more preoccupied with sorting out the mess at the border with Gibraltar, which is basically throwing itself into Spanish arms now, believe it or not!


We shall see the mood in Catalonia in February and how Madrid deal with it .
 
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:01 pm

Olddog wrote:
It seems Spain learned one trick from France, and should make the frontier to Gibraltar a pain to go through.


That would be great for the 15,000 cross border Spanish workers ;)

And after Spain just agreed to ease the border for them .
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:14 pm

Olddog wrote:
It seems Spain learned one trick from France, and should make the frontier to Gibraltar a pain to go through.


No need for that .
The scenes in Dover were convincing enough for Gibraltar to be willing to throw itself in the arms of the schengen zone in order to avoid all of that.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:19 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Olddog wrote:
It seems Spain learned one trick from France, and should make the frontier to Gibraltar a pain to go through.


No need for that .
The scenes in Dover were convincing enough for Gibraltar to be willing to throw itself in the arms of the schengen zone in order to avoid all of that.


Does Gibraltar have that volume of lorries compared to Dover ?

Schengen is a win win for Gibraltarians considering their location.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:44 pm

Forget about the lorries or the spanish visitors, the total number of people flowing in via land is overwhelming given it has to be processed via a single entry point.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/739 ... gibraltar/

You really do not want to process that many people at such a small exteral Schengen zone border, including individual ETIAS check and all that comes with it.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:27 pm

The situation will evolve. The EU does not want seems to be so hard, but a long slow strangle will do it perfectly:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-markets-trading/brexit-big-bang-to-trigger-tectonic-trading-rift-in-europe-idUSKBN2930HQ

LONDON (Reuters) - Europe will see its biggest transfer of share trading in more than two decades when stock exchanges open for business in 2021, with Brexit shifting its centre of gravity away from London.

While market players hope that years of preparations since Britain voted to leave the European Union means the transition of most euro-denominated assets like shares and derivatives out of the country will be relatively smooth, the long-term impact is unclear.

“This is a big bang event and that is one of the things that the market hasn’t truly understood yet,” Alasdair Haynes, chief executive of London-based share trading platform Aquis Exchange, told Reuters.

“This is literally everything moves on a specific day and we have got to pray to God that we don’t have some extraordinary event happen in the market that creates high volumes,” Haynes said.

While the landmark trade deal agreed last week set rules for industries such as fishing and agriculture, it did not cover Britain’s much larger finance sector, meaning automatic access to the EU’s financial markets comes to an end on Dec 31.

The following days will provide a first taste of the effects of the shift and regulators on both sides of the English Channel will be on alert for market dislocations on Jan 4, the first trading day of the new year.

The EU wants to reduce reliance on the City of London for financial services and see more euro-based trading in Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam and other financial centres in the bloc.

That will split Europe’s stock, bond and derivatives markets into two separate trading pools, raising concerns that investors will get less competitive prices.

EU banks must trade euro-denominated shares inside the bloc from Jan. 4, forcing them to switch from platforms run by the likes of Cboe Europe, Aquis Exchange, London Stock Exchange’s Turquoise and Goldman Sachs in London, to EU hubs they have opened in Amsterdam or Paris.

Most shares are still traded on their home exchange, but between them London platforms account for nearly all cross-border trading in shares in the remaining 27 EU states.

That amounted to 8.6 billion euros ($10.4 billion) a day collectively in October, or a quarter of all European trading, Cboe data shows.

David Howson, president of Cboe Europe, said almost all cross-border European stock trading will switch overnight.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:00 pm

About BoJo/Tories reducing inequalities in the UK, remember they had to be shamed by a footballer to spend a few millions feeding hungry children during vacations. Twice ! And opposed it with such arguments as : their parents were spending their meager government allowance (universal credit) on hookers and drugs...
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:10 pm

Olddog wrote:
The situation will evolve. The EU does not want seems to be so hard, but a long slow strangle will do it perfectly:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-markets-trading/brexit-big-bang-to-trigger-tectonic-trading-rift-in-europe-idUSKBN2930HQ


One has to realize that this is exactly what the ECB is aiming for. If all the Euro trading is in the EU (and preferably and Euro country), it ensures it get the data from all the granular reporting it requires and thus gets a good grip on the Euro market. Our colleagues in the UK never understand this logic, but that's mostly beacuse they don not look too much into the future and cannot comprehend (and don't like) why a central bank want to know exactly what they're doing. They also don't realize that the ECB is moving to big data and is actually taking its task seriously. The UK will never agree to the level of reporting as required by the ECB and thus I doubt the UK will get any equivalence if they don't agree to the reporting requirements from ECB (at least not for the Euro business). They know that agreeing to the reporting requirement will not only add costs, it will also make their business more transparant and will impact management decisions (by taking less risk as the regulator will get more knowledge on the risk profile of the institution).
 
Derico
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:51 pm

For years it had been obvious, and mentioned countless times by most observers, that the EU would have to be quite tough with the UK and basically give them a bad deal, or at least a deal no better than for anyone that has NEVER been part of the EU. And that the negotiation was not so much as a way to punish the UK (even if there may be some feelings of using the chance to do that as well), but as a way to protect the idea in front of everyone of the EU as granting even greater benefits if you were willing to give up some significant autonomy in some areas, vs being outside of it and possessing that autonomy but seeing no benefits from the consumer and defense market the EU creates. Once you start giving preferential treatment to outsiders, you basically start a race to the bottom since everyone will cry foul and line up demanding at least as good a deal as the last best deal someone else got. Eventually, that erodes the whole point of being a member.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/uks-deal-eur ... 33839.html
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:31 am

No big surprise, but trouble is starting to brew in Norway about the Brexit deal: https://www.thelocal.no/20201229/norway ... an-the-eea

Norway's Centre Party has called the UK's trade deal with the European Union "a better agreement" than the one Norway has as a member of the European Economic Area

The Centre Party's call for an inquiry is backed by the Socialist Left Party, with Heming Olaussen, head of the party's EEA committee, telling Klassekampen that the UK's deal was superior.

Just goes to show that the EU failed to abide by its own famous Brexit staircase diagram yet again.

But it's not too late. The EU parliament can still reject the Brexit deal to prevent losing another net contributor to the EU budget.

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