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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:33 am

AeroVega wrote:
No big surprise, but trouble is starting to brew in Norway about the Brexit deal: https://www.thelocal.no/20201229/norway ... an-the-eea

Norway's Centre Party has called the UK's trade deal with the European Union "a better agreement" than the one Norway has as a member of the European Economic Area

The Centre Party's call for an inquiry is backed by the Socialist Left Party, with Heming Olaussen, head of the party's EEA committee, telling Klassekampen that the UK's deal was superior.

Just goes to show that the EU failed to abide by its own famous Brexit staircase diagram yet again.

But it's not too late. The EU parliament can still reject the Brexit deal to prevent losing another net contributor to the EU budget.


Many wise people have predicted that Brexit will be the downfall of the EU and it has begun.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:38 am

AeroVega wrote:
No big surprise, but trouble is starting to brew in Norway about the Brexit deal: https://www.thelocal.no/20201229/norway ... an-the-eea

Norway's Centre Party has called the UK's trade deal with the European Union "a better agreement" than the one Norway has as a member of the European Economic Area

The Centre Party's call for an inquiry is backed by the Socialist Left Party, with Heming Olaussen, head of the party's EEA committee, telling Klassekampen that the UK's deal was superior.

Just goes to show that the EU failed to abide by its own famous Brexit staircase diagram yet again.

But it's not too late. The EU parliament can still reject the Brexit deal to prevent losing another net contributor to the EU budget.


he Centre Party has maintained a hardline stance against Norwegian membership in the European Union, successfully campaigning against Norwegian membership in both the 1972 and 1994 referendums, during which time the party saw record-high election results. Subsequently, the party advocated Norway's withdrawal from the European Economic Area and the Schengen Agreement.[6]


link

A predicted call from an Eurosceptic party.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:40 am

Norway is much closer to the EU and thus has more benefits, for example it doesn't have to fund its own regulatory bodies, covering countless things.

I wouldn't be surprised if the "inquiry" concludes exactly that.

Alternatively Norway can try and negotiate something new, I'm sure the EU will say : give more fish !

Norway's contribution is small fish anyway...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:44 am

Also for a small country with a harsh landscape and small population, freedom of movement is a great benefit I would surmise. I can't find numbers at a quick glance, how many Norwegians live or work in the EU ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
DNDTUF
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:09 am

Regarding Scotland, I was talking to my dad the other day and we both came to the conclusion that this deal actually helps the case for Scottish independence. It removes the threat of the rUK (rest of the UK) using its veto to prevent Scotland joining the EU. If, and I agree that any transition once we left the UK to actually joining the EU would be a big upheaval, we joined the EU as an independent nation, we would be able to trade with rUK under this UK/EU trade agreement. Simply put, rUK would not be able to use the excuse of losing the internal UK market as a downside to independence.

Remaining part of the UK means less fish for Scottish fishermen, no access to the EU for Scotland's vibrant banking and insurance sector, increased hurdles for tourism, not to mention the devastating loss of Erasmus for Scotland's world-famous universities (a programme I was proud to take part in). All of this upheaval for a short-sighted, chest-beating, "taking-back-control" sovereignty fetish.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rexit-deal
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... es-breakup
Nemo me impune lacessit
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:25 am

Norwegian Politician claims the UK has a better deal than Norway.

I’d be keen to know everyones thoughts on this: https://order-order.com/2020/12/30/norw ... is-better/
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:50 am

Arion640 wrote:
Norwegian Politician claims the UK has a better deal than Norway.

I’d be keen to know everyones thoughts on this: https://order-order.com/2020/12/30/norw ... is-better/


That the lady represents a party that historically has campaigned against EU membership, against EEA membership and against Schengen area membership.

So basically what one would expect her to say.

Second time this is brought up in this very page, the Eurosceptic press must really be starved of news if this is what they put front and centre.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:56 am

DNDTUF wrote:
Regarding Scotland, I was talking to my dad the other day and we both came to the conclusion that this deal actually helps the case for Scottish


Sadly though the numbers don't add up Scottish friends of mine who voted to remain and are passionate about their Scottish identity even admit it.
The point is are the Scottish people willing to go into years of decline and further losses to break free. Of course that is indeed their right to decide but they should be aware of the issues. The SNP often deflect their failures in domestic issues by ramping up passions about Indyref hoping it will divert attention. Now that a deal is done maybe they will feel the pressure.



Leaving the Union would harm Scotland more than Brexit

Andrew Wilson, author of the SNP’s Sustainable Growth Commission, under the headline 'Scotland can’t afford to remain part of the Union'. For those seeking any fresh insight into either the moral or economic case for breaking up the United Kingdom, it was thin gruel.

Instead of coherent arguments, we were offered bold and unsubstantiated assertions. We are asked to believe that the separatists’ position is 'highly sophisticated' and that because of Brexit, 'staying in the Union is riskier than independence'. Any worries about the economic implications of leaving the UK single market, abandoning the Sterling currency union, losing the economic support offered by UK-wide pooling and sharing, dismantling our shared defence resources and unpicking our deeply integrated machinery of state can apparently be dismissed because, we are assured, 'the SNP prospectus is worked out and clear'.

While it is undeniably true that Brexit has heightened the sense of grievance in Scotland on which the separatists thrive, their dogmatic commitment to independence existed long before Brexit. Are we expected to forget that the SNP campaigned for independence in 2014 in the certain knowledge it would take Scotland out of the EU? Their enthusiasm for the EU is based on opportunism, not principle. But no matter, let’s take the SNP’s commitment to the European project at face value.

If Brexit causes economic damage by creating trade friction between the UK and the EU, placing Scotland on the EU side of UK-EU trade barriers would make things worse for Scots, not better. After over 40 years of unfettered market access, the EU accounts for just 21 per cent of Scotland’s exports compared to 60 per cent to the rest of the UK.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/leaving-the ... brexit/amp
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:06 am

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Norwegian Politician claims the UK has a better deal than Norway.

I’d be keen to know everyones thoughts on this: https://order-order.com/2020/12/30/norw ... is-better/


That the lady represents a party that historically has campaigned against EU membership, against EEA membership and against Schengen area membership.

So basically what one would expect her to say.

Second time this is brought up in this very page, the Eurosceptic press must really be starved of news if this is what they put front and centre.



Not just Norwegian, some Swiss think that too :stirthepot:


https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/-brexit-en ... d/46249466
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:07 am

sabenapilot wrote:
Forget about the lorries or the spanish visitors, the total number of people flowing in via land is overwhelming given it has to be processed via a single entry point.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/739 ... gibraltar/

You really do not want to process that many people at such a small exteral Schengen zone border, including individual ETIAS check and all that comes with it.


You just have to look back a few years.

Periodically Spanish police would have a period of slightly harsher checks to look for tobacco smuggling and it resulted in huge queues. Both for foot and for vehicle traffic (which due to the location is shared for commercial and personal vehicles, there just isn't room for more).

Wait times of up to six hours have happenned in the recent years.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:09 am

A101 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Norwegian Politician claims the UK has a better deal than Norway.

I’d be keen to know everyones thoughts on this: https://order-order.com/2020/12/30/norw ... is-better/


That the lady represents a party that historically has campaigned against EU membership, against EEA membership and against Schengen area membership.

So basically what one would expect her to say.

Second time this is brought up in this very page, the Eurosceptic press must really be starved of news if this is what they put front and centre.



Not just Norwegian, some Swiss think that too :stirthepot:

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/-brexit-en ... d/46249466


FDP, another anti-EU membership party. And SVP, the ones behind that funny poster kicking the black sheep out.

The echo chamber is going strong it seems.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:22 am

JJJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

That the lady represents a party that historically has campaigned against EU membership, against EEA membership and against Schengen area membership.

So basically what one would expect her to say.

Second time this is brought up in this very page, the Eurosceptic press must really be starved of news if this is what they put front and centre.



Not just Norwegian, some Swiss think that too :stirthepot:

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/-brexit-en ... d/46249466


FDP, another anti-EU membership party. And SVP, the ones behind that funny poster kicking the black sheep out.

The echo chamber is going strong it seems.


Don’t shoot the messenger just because you don’t like the message
 
bennett123
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:37 am

A101

The day that Nigel Farage praises the EU, I will believe him without question. A bit like the day Ken Clarke speaks against the EU, I will believe it without question.

However, it was always obvious that these Anti EU individuals would make negative comments about the EU.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:41 am

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Norwegian Politician claims the UK has a better deal than Norway.

I’d be keen to know everyones thoughts on this: https://order-order.com/2020/12/30/norw ... is-better/


That the lady represents a party that historically has campaigned against EU membership, against EEA membership and against Schengen area membership.

So basically what one would expect her to say.

Second time this is brought up in this very page, the Eurosceptic press must really be starved of news if this is what they put front and centre.


I didn’t know that, i was just enquiring.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:38 pm

Dutchy wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
No big surprise, but trouble is starting to brew in Norway about the Brexit deal: https://www.thelocal.no/20201229/norway ... an-the-eea

Norway's Centre Party has called the UK's trade deal with the European Union "a better agreement" than the one Norway has as a member of the European Economic Area

The Centre Party's call for an inquiry is backed by the Socialist Left Party, with Heming Olaussen, head of the party's EEA committee, telling Klassekampen that the UK's deal was superior.

Just goes to show that the EU failed to abide by its own famous Brexit staircase diagram yet again.

But it's not too late. The EU parliament can still reject the Brexit deal to prevent losing another net contributor to the EU budget.



he Centre Party has maintained a hardline stance against Norwegian membership in the European Union, successfully campaigning against Norwegian membership in both the 1972 and 1994 referendums, during which time the party saw record-high election results. Subsequently, the party advocated Norway's withdrawal from the European Economic Area and the Schengen Agreement.[6]


link

A predicted call from an Eurosceptic party.


In the same way you have other parties in Norway right now saying that a full membership would be preferable;

Venstre that has been negative to EU membership changed a few month ago and has now as policy that Norway should be member;

Venstre normally have much more influence on Norwegian policy in my oppinion;

https://www.venstre.no/artikkel/2020/09 ... ja-til-eu/

The Liberal Party says yes to the EU

The Liberal Party's national meeting has decided that Norway should eventually apply for membership in the EU. - We need more international cooperation on the major challenges in society, and Norway should be part of the democratic institutions that influence us, says Liberal Party leader Guri Melby.

The decision was made in connection with the consideration of the Liberal Party's new program of principles on Sunday 27 October.

- We have had a long and good debate on this issue in the Liberal Party, and I am glad that so many have participated in the debate with respect for the different views that exist in the party, Melby says.

The decision emphasizes that Norway must have its own solutions for fisheries and agriculture, and that the question of EU membership must be decided through a referendum.

- The international institutions are under pressure, and the Liberal Party must be a clear voice for solidarity, cooperation and community across national borders. It is only through binding cooperation between the countries that we can solve the major challenges facing the world, such as the climate crisis. The EU has been at the forefront of climate work, and has contributed to less differences and more justice in Europe. It is also the most important peace project in modern European history, says Melby.

The EEA agreement ensures the business community in Norway access to a European market. It is important for creating growth and jobs across the country, and is absolutely crucial for many export companies along our coast. The Liberal Party believes that Norway should participate fully in European co-operation through membership of the EU.

- In the short term, the most important thing for the Liberal Party is to defend the EEA agreement against forces that want to terminate it. It will be a disaster for both the business community who make a living from selling goods to Europe, and for people who are studying, looking for work or finding love in another European country. Norway must be part of the collaborations that give more freedom and greater opportunities to people, says Melby.

- EEA co-operation will be an important issue in the election campaign in 2021, and the Liberal Party is uncompromisingly on the side of co-operation. In the longer term, we also want to take part in the democratic institutions in the EU through full membership, she concludes.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:43 pm

JJJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Norwegian Politician claims the UK has a better deal than Norway.

I’d be keen to know everyones thoughts on this: https://order-order.com/2020/12/30/norw ... is-better/


That the lady represents a party that historically has campaigned against EU membership, against EEA membership and against Schengen area membership.

So basically what one would expect her to say.

Second time this is brought up in this very page, the Eurosceptic press must really be starved of news if this is what they put front and centre.


Norway wants out of the EU, ah ah we told you the EU would disintegrate !!!!

Wait, Norway isn't part of the EU ? Who knew that ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:46 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Norwegian Politician claims the UK has a better deal than Norway.

I’d be keen to know everyones thoughts on this: https://order-order.com/2020/12/30/norw ... is-better/


These are just the expected communication lines from the expected nationalistic parties, whether they're in Norway, Switzerland or elsewhere...
Nobody bothered to give the Icelandic Independance party a call yet? They'll easily fill another page with the same ranting in the UK tabloids...
After all: you can't go round the table of 27 in Brussels to identify who's probably going to be next to leave the EU, forever in vain, can you?
Maybe somewhere next week, right? ;)

With a deal between the UK and the EU pending, all nationalistic parties prepared their communication strategy to gain some domestic attention:
- a last minute no deal = shut op and stay under the radar
- any deal = claim it's far better than what their country currently enjoys, knowing that the UK government would obviously sell any deal as a clear win...

But is it?

The economic benefit of Brexit is known not ot exist, even according the the UK government's own economic assessment.
There is no dividend whatsoever for the forseable future from Brexit... maybe in 50 years, dixit JRM.
Brexit is a purely political project, not an economic one, that much is now admitted even by Brexiteers.
With politics being the only UK red line, it got some political wins it now praises, but it already got them automatically at the end of the article 50 process.
Yet today it signs up to a zero tariffs/zero quota deal, but sadly on goods only, where the EU runs a massive trade surplus with the UK?!? And that's it?!
In short: the EU saved (most of) its trade surplus, the UK saved its consumers from (most of the) higher costs from leaving the SM.
That's this deal summarized in one line: all the rest was already secured long before it, or is nothing but good intensions for an undefined later moment.
Other than that, there's absolutely nothing in this deal

Oh, there is: a lot of additional red tape and jobs for civil servants as the UK has to set up more than 40 agencies back home, some of which are well know since recently: EASA, EMA, ECDC, Europol, Eurojust... Good luck trying to sell all of that as a better deal to the Swiss, the Norwegians!

Something along the lines of this then.
"we need to get a British type of a deal with Europe, so we can:
1- reduce or economic growth by xx% by 2030 like the UK will do
2- spend far more taxpayers money on newly created government agencies and civll servants to take over from shared EU agencies
3- increase red tape for our exporting businesses and prices in our shops for our consumers
4- oh, and get new passports... oh no wait, we don't have burgundy passports."


I'd say: let them review the alternative options...
It's their right and they should take it very seriously...
Don't just leave it as it is, go for it; if the UK tells you this is better, have a good look at what such a deal would do to you too!
And let them present their conclusions to the public too then, so we can have a good laugh at what an idiotic idea it would be for countriies which are even smaller and even more reliant on unfettered EU access than the UK already is, to hide behind newly created trade barriers.
The Swiss are currently in the process of negotiating a new global deal with the EU to replace the 40+ bilaterals which make up the EU-CH legal framework and the SPP is part of the Swiss government so they have no excuse to immediately insist on implementing this new concept. ;)
 
94717
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:47 pm

UK right now joins Swiss deal that cancel one deal -> cancel all. Ask the Swiss how much Democratic influence this has given them.

Norway has now the work to replace oil part of its export or face trade deficits. Shall this be done by increase barriers?

Image

https://tradingeconomics.com/norway/balance-of-trade
 
bennett123
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:00 pm

Tend to feel that Parliament being required to scrutinise and debate a 1,200 page agreement at this pace is worrying.

What is Boris hiding in the small print?.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:08 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Tend to feel that Parliament being required to scrutinise and debate a 1,200 page agreement at this pace is worrying.

What is Boris hiding in the small print?.


Well they have had years to debate and scrutinise it and the final deal is not that hard to understand even for those with half a brain. The EU released the full document to the public days ago. If the British politicians on both sides cant knuckle down and read 1200 odd pages in a few days then they are being paid too much and should be given a pay cut. Make them do 12 hour days like a lot of workers.

I think Teresa May threw a blinder today when she spoke to “Sir” Keir who said there could have been a better deal . She reminded him he voted against her deal which was a better deal.
 
sabenapilot
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Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:38 pm

OA260 wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
Tend to feel that Parliament being required to scrutinise and debate a 1,200 page agreement at this pace is worrying.

What is Boris hiding in the small print?.


Well they have had years to debate and scrutinise it and the final deal is not that hard to understand even for those with half a brain. The EU released the full document to the public days ago. If the British politicians on both sides cant knuckle down and read 1200 odd pages in a few days then they are being paid too much and should be given a pay cut. Make them do 12 hour days like a lot of workers.


It's not that they have much choice is it?
It's either this, or no deal, which was allegedly such a great default position, that even the ERG now agrees it is better not to go there and give the EU zero tariffs/zero quota for their trade surplus in goods to continue flowing into the country without (much) added costs, other than the red tape that comes with it and has a price too, of course.

OA260 wrote:
I think Teresa May threw a blinder today when she spoke to “Sir” Keir who said there could have been a better deal . She reminded him he voted against her deal which was a better deal.

She's right...
Although it's a bit of pot - kettle - black, isn't it?
She's also going to vote for this deal too, even though she thinks is less good for the UK than the one she outlined, but couldn't get through parliament; if not, she'd come up with this instead as it has always been on offer from the EU, right from the start. (see the famour diagram). It's TM who started the cherry picking and got tangled up in the complexities of the consequences from willing to do that on governance, oversight and domestic implementation of such a fuzzy choice. So in fact while she squablles with Sir Keir, she actually fully agrees with him!
British politics is never what it seems, mainly due to the FPPT system which makes reasonable compromises impossible: TM should have worked with Labour on a sensible deal, dumping the ERG. Britain would not have had to suffer the economic hit it will now have to suffer, it would not be exposed to the same extend to centrifugal forces acting on the 4 nations and she'd probably still be PM today as well (although that would in part be thanks to Covid)! She chose her party over her country, yet in the end her party sacked her and her country will suffer more than needed, possibly not even surviving brexit in the long run! If I'd be her, I'd be reluctant to suggest others made strategic mistakes in the past, like she did, but self-reflection never has been a valuable attitude for any politician.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:47 pm

Brexit: MPs overwhelmingly back EU-UK trade deal ahead of end of transition period


MPs have overwhelmingly approved the Brexit trade deal to pave the way for the UK-EU agreement to come into force at 11pm tomorrow.

The House of Commons backed the agreement, struck between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the EU on Christmas Eve, by 521 votes to 73.


http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-mps-ov ... d-12175646
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:53 pm

DNDTUF wrote:
Regarding Scotland, I was talking to my dad the other day and we both came to the conclusion that this deal actually helps the case for Scottish independence. It removes the threat of the rUK (rest of the UK) using its veto to prevent Scotland joining the EU. If, and I agree that any transition once we left the UK to actually joining the EU would be a big upheaval, we joined the EU as an independent nation, we would be able to trade with rUK under this UK/EU trade agreement. Simply put, rUK would not be able to use the excuse of losing the internal UK market as a downside to independence.

The EU did not break up its union to accommodate the UK leaving, why exactly would the UK allow Scotland to leave and continue to trade with the UK as if they were still a part of that union?
Hopefully both the UK and Scotland would learn from Brexit, the UK understanding and accepting the EU negotiating position and Scotland not taking the UK position in their EU negotiations.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:01 pm

The outcome of Brexit, which started on the promise 'to take back control' and 'deliver a better deal' than DC came back with, is actually quite depressing:

A parliament having to rush through an agreement in just a couple of hours, with most MPs voting while holding their nose as they walk through the lobby in support of a deal that brings them nothing.

OTOH, the mood in Westminster seems to reflect the general feeling in the UK, at least according to YouGov:

"Most Britons want MPs to vote for the deal, although less than 1 in 5 thinks it is a better deal for Britain"

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/13442 ... 452b087e01

Even amonst conservatives, only 1/3 thinks its a good deal!
Amongst leave voters barely 1/4 thinks its a good deal...
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:30 pm

Meanwhile reality is kicking in and raw sausages (and some other typical UK products) cannot be exported to the EU as of Friday.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1377895/brexit-news-transition-period-agreement-british-sausages-exports-eu-bans-ont

Moreover, yet another wonderful thing of the Brexit agreement. The EU can fish till 6 miles from the UK coast whereas the British need to stay clear 12 miles from the EU coast. I'm surprised the UK didn't ask for a "level playing field".

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/boris-is-a-kipper-fury-and-frustration-at-brexit-fishing-deal-in-brixham

Needless to say UK artists or also not pleased now that they need to fill forms and get visas to perform in the EU. However, this may be positive for us in the EU as maybe this will mean we can ban the Rolling Stones from performing easily (my apologies to Stones fans).

https://www.nme.com/news/music/petition-launched-secure-visa-free-touring-bands-brexit-deal-2845981
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/uk-performers-raise-alarm-as-brexit-deal-threatens-eu-touring
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:49 pm

LJ wrote:
yet another wonderful thing of the Brexit agreement. The EU can fish till 6 miles from the UK coast whereas the British need to stay clear 12 miles from the EU coast. I'm surprised the UK didn't ask for a "level playing field".

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/29/boris-is-a-kipper-fury-and-frustration-at-brexit-fishing-deal-in-brixham


The deal on fishing served as a red hering to hide from view the fact this whole trade deal is bringing the UK litterally nothing!
All the 'wins' were automatic upon completion of the article 50 process already, while it has given the EU zero tariff/zero quota for its trade surplus in goods!

But but but... "we are a sovereign coastal state again"...
If that's the case, that sovereign coastal state has just signed up to a very assymetic arrangement on fisheries in which EU vessels have to reduce the volume of their catch in British waters by some 25% only , whereas UK vessels are completely banned from EU waters, right away!

Scotland's government made the calculation and the net result is a LOSS!
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18974 ... -industry/

Seems even ordinary fishermen -once very much pro-brexit because of all the promises made to them- are now left behind completely disillusioned:
“We’ll still be catching the same fish in the same waters as the French, but we’ll have to produce a mountain of paperwork for it. It seems to me what we have achieved is minuscule when you think of the upsets it has caused in families and communities. All that effort for so little.”
 
JJJ
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Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:13 pm

A101 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
A101 wrote:


Not just Norwegian, some Swiss think that too :stirthepot:

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/-brexit-en ... d/46249466


FDP, another anti-EU membership party. And SVP, the ones behind that funny poster kicking the black sheep out.

The echo chamber is going strong it seems.


Don’t shoot the messenger just because you don’t like the message


The message is as vacuous as the messenger. ECJ, sovereignty, etc.

I was almost expecting blue passports to show up.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:25 pm

As I understand it, this is the "exiting trade agreement" for the UK and EU to still have negotiated trade rules between them. It is a start, a "first", the framework for how the next few years will be and over the coming years some changes will be made or negotiated as needed and as things change within each independent entity. Yes there are "follow me" rules in it where by the EU makes a change and the UK is to follow "or".... and that "or" is what I am referring to that changes are allowed and will occur if needed.

Hopefully future negotiations will be quieter and more the bureaucratic experts and less the politicians (though they will be involved at some point as they will need to approve whatever in many circumstances).

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:43 pm

sabenapilot wrote:

These are just the expected communication lines from the expected nationalistic parties, whether they're in Norway, Switzerland or elsewhere...
Nobody bothered to give the Icelandic Independance party a call yet? They'll easily fill another page with the same ranting in the UK tabloids...




But they are not wrong either, yes they get the privilege of the 4 freedoms at a cost of following EU rules and paying for it

sabenapilot wrote:

any deal = claim it's far better than what their country currently enjoys, knowing that the UK government would obviously sell any deal as a clear win...




I don’t think anyone has claimed that it is a clear win in terms of access and trade barriers, we always knew that there would be

sabenapilot wrote:

The economic benefit of Brexit is known not ot exist, even according the the UK government's own economic assessment.


That’s the problem with pro-remain, you only see the economic argument Brexit is more than just about economics

sabenapilot wrote:

There is no dividend whatsoever for the forseable future from Brexit... maybe in 50 years, dixit JRM.



Funny how you continue to present it as we will only see benefits in 50years, but that myth was debunked a long time ago

When he actually said “Rees-Mogg: “The overwhelming opportunity for Brexit is over the next 50 years.”

Which a sovereign government can create its own environment for better or worse. Not one dictated to by Brussels in having to continue following its rules

sabenapilot wrote:

With politics being the only UK red line, it got some political wins it now praises, but it already got them automatically at the end of the article 50 process.


Not really sure where you are going with this, but yes full sovereignty would have returned for the entire UK and the saga could have finished a couple of years ago, instead of the merry go-round


sabenapilot wrote:

Yet today it signs up to a zero tariffs/zero quota deal, but sadly on goods only, where the EU runs a massive trade surplus with the UK?!? And that's it?!
In short: the EU saved (most of) its trade surplus, the UK saved its consumers from (most of the) higher costs from leaving the SM.



A while ago pro-remain were telling us we could not have that unless we signed up to dynamic alignment in perpetuity for that type of access to the SM , now it’s a great thing both sides have zero quota/ tariffs without signing up to EU rules hypocrisy at its best

sabenapilot wrote:

That's this deal summarized in one line: all the rest was already secured long before it, or is nothing but good intensions for an undefined later moment.
Other than that, there's absolutely nothing in this deal



I wouldn’t say nothing in the deal, the UK held firm to its main red lines for sovereignty, no overarching supremacy of the EU over the UK Parliamentary & Judicial sovereignty and as most pro-leave have stated it’s far from a perfect deal but we got a majority of what we wanted considering the hurdles placed before the UKGov

sabenapilot wrote:

Oh, there is: a lot of additional red tape and jobs for civil servants as the UK has to set up more than 40 agencies back home, some of which are well know since recently: EASA, EMA, ECDC, Europol, Eurojust... Good luck trying to sell all of that as a better deal to the Swiss, the Norwegians!



Good grief one would think that the UK had no corresponding agencies, yes the function will move back to the UK it’s certainly not year zero in the UK and the Government

sabenapilot wrote:

I'd say: let them review the alternative options...
It's their right and they should take it very seriously...
Don't just leave it as it is, go for it; if the UK tells you this is better, have a good look at what such a deal would do to you too!
And let them present their conclusions to the public too then, so we can have a good laugh at what an idiotic idea it would be for countriies which are even smaller and even more reliant on unfettered EU access than the UK already is, to hide behind newly created trade barriers.



No one is hiding behind newly created trade barriers, that was the known price for wanting to regain our sovereignty we knew no one is saying different. It’s up to the UKGov to now use its new found freedoms from the EU to move the nation ahead in our own interests. Just like the EU UKGov will have there hurdles along the way just as any sovereign nation does. The difference being we will not have Brussels saying in what direction we will go for the first time in 47 years UKGov decides our policy in full without Brussels haveing supremacy over parliament or our judiciary




sabenapilot wrote:

The Swiss are currently in the process of negotiating a new global deal with the EU to replace the 40+ bilaterals which make up the EU-CH legal framework and the SPP is part of the Swiss government so they have no excuse to immediately insist on implementing this new concept.





It’s the EU who are unhappy with the current trade agreements with the Swiss ands it’s the EU that want to end multiple agreements
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:48 pm

JJJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

FDP, another anti-EU membership party. And SVP, the ones behind that funny poster kicking the black sheep out.

The echo chamber is going strong it seems.


Don’t shoot the messenger just because you don’t like the message


The message is as vacuous as the messenger. ECJ, sovereignty, etc.

I was almost expecting blue passports to show up.


It’s just like you don’t like any counter view that go against the worshiping of the EU views
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:52 pm

A101 wrote:
But they are not wrong either, yes they get the privilege of the 4 freedoms at a cost of following EU rules and paying for it

Contrary to a Common Market where each member makes its own rules and accepts the rules of the others, a Single Market has 1 single set of rules, and for those to be made it requires a single regulator, which costs money: but in return the members can reduce/get rid off their national regulating agencies.
A little detail that was almost completely forgotten by the UK, to the point it started these negotiations with the idea it could just freeload on the SM: not just for goods, but for everything. That didn't go very well now did it? Which is why at each turn of events, the UK peeled off a layer of 'unfettered' access until it settled for a very thin FTA wich does little but secure the massive daily flow of all sorts of goods it so much relies on to continue to flow without a significant cost increases from WTO tariffs it would have to impose!

A101 wrote:
That’s the problem with pro-remain, you only see the economic argument Brexit is more than just about economics

No I don't, and I have great respect for those who think the price is worth paying.
What I have a problem with it the fact that Brexit was sold to the public as making economic sense too, while it doesn't.
Could that possible have been because of some fear not everybody who voted leave was so keep to pay the price for it?
And could that explain why BoJo now signed up to a sell-out deal which brings the UK very little over no deal, other than avoid the need to impose WTO tariffs on most goods imported to the UK from the EU, and thus have British consumers start having to pay very noticeably for their choice in the referendum?

A101 wrote:
A while ago pro-remain were telling us we could not have that unless we signed up to dynamic alignment in perpetuity for that type of access to the SM , now it’s a great thing both sides have zero quota/ tariffs without signing up to EU rules hypocrisy at its best.

First of all, you may have noticed the deal is only covering the part of trade where the EU is having a trade surplus (goods), whereas it leaves out the parts where the UK had a trade surplus (services/finances)... While the agreement is applicable to 'both sides' as you say, it is to the overal benefit of 'one side' only: the EU.
Also, you may have noticed that in return for no guarantee on 'perpetuity' from the UK, this deal is forever depending on the UK's systemic alligment with the EU...
If the UK does not move in line with the EU in future, the deal gets unilaterally modified to erase any competitive advantage that may have been gained.
Compare that to the Norway deal where Norway has to move in sync, or to the Swiss deal where the Swiss can decide not to move and then the EU has to make the tough call to end the whole deal at once, or just accept the Swiss rebellion. In the UK case, the EU has the unique ability to just change the modalities of bilateral trade under the deal, so it can return the modalities back to their advantage as it is now going to be the case!

A101 wrote:
I wouldn’t say nothing in the deal, the UK held firm to its main red lines for sovereignty, no overarching supremacy of the EU over the UK Parliamentary & Judicial sovereignty.

Yet that was automatically returned to the UK upon completion of the article 50 process!
The UK doesn't need this trade agreement to gain that: it is already automatically secured in just 2 days from now, deal or no deal?
If I hear you talk, you'd think Brexit hadn't happened yet, and the transition period of article 50 is still valid?


A101 wrote:
It’s the EU who are unhappy with the current trade agreements with the Swiss ands it’s the EU that want to end multiple agreements

Who told you that if I may ask?
if you follow a bit the debate in Switzerland, you'll find both parties to be very unhappy about the complexity of their current bilateral relationship, which is why they are renegotiating. One of the things the EU doesn't like is precisely the fact it can not unilaterally change the modalities of the bilateral trade when there's a regulatory market distrotion occuring; it can only accept any Swiss deviation or terminate the whole deal. In that respect, the flexibility of the deal with the UK really forms a template for all future arrangements with the other EU sattellite countries.
Negotiating with yourself is maybe something the UK is happy doing as evidenced by the events of he past 4 years, but it's not a habit of either the Swiss nor the EU.
Both have some clear goals for amendments set out, based on objective issues experienced with the current set up.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:51 pm

A101 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
A101 wrote:

Don’t shoot the messenger just because you don’t like the message


The message is as vacuous as the messenger. ECJ, sovereignty, etc.

I was almost expecting blue passports to show up.


It’s just like you don’t like any counter view that go against the worshiping of the EU views


No that’s not correct, I know there was some benefits of being in the EU, butvhold the position that the cost outweigh thebenifits
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:56 pm

OA260 wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
Tend to feel that Parliament being required to scrutinise and debate a 1,200 page agreement at this pace is worrying.

What is Boris hiding in the small print?.


Well they have had years to debate and scrutinise it and the final deal is not that hard to understand even for those with half a brain. The EU released the full document to the public days ago. If the British politicians on both sides cant knuckle down and read 1200 odd pages in a few days then they are being paid too much and should be given a pay cut. Make them do 12 hour days like a lot of workers.

I think Teresa May threw a blinder today when she spoke to “Sir” Keir who said there could have been a better deal . She reminded him he voted against her deal which was a better deal.


Must say I'm surprised by your position.
You can spend as much as you want, there is no way to scrutinize properly in such a short timeframe, Period.

Or maybe the embarrassing Ian Duncan Smith discovering he should have been more careful with the fineprints of the WA was not enough to serve as lesson learned ?
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/iain-duncan-smith-up-in-arms-over-withdrawal-agreement-fine-print/04/08/

par13del wrote:
The EU did not break up its union to accommodate the UK leaving, why exactly would the UK allow Scotland to leave and continue to trade with the UK as if they were still a part of that union?


Don't worry.
The minute after a Scot indy vote, CEO of various british company will be knocking down n10 demanding there will be no barrier to English access to Scotish market.
See what I did there?

Tugger wrote:
As I understand it, this is the "exiting trade agreement" for the UK and EU to still have negotiated trade rules between them.

Tugg


Nope.
The "exiting trade agreement" was agrred last year. It's the Withdrawal Agreement.

The newly found deal, is the "new relationship agreement". And yes, of course it will evolve over time. Hopefully more quietly, peacefully (one can dream).
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:08 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
OA260 wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
Tend to feel that Parliament being required to scrutinise and debate a 1,200 page agreement at this pace is worrying.

What is Boris hiding in the small print?.


Well they have had years to debate and scrutinise it and the final deal is not that hard to understand even for those with half a brain. The EU released the full document to the public days ago. If the British politicians on both sides cant knuckle down and read 1200 odd pages in a few days then they are being paid too much and should be given a pay cut. Make them do 12 hour days like a lot of workers.

I think Teresa May threw a blinder today when she spoke to “Sir” Keir who said there could have been a better deal . She reminded him he voted against her deal which was a better deal.


Must say I'm surprised by your position.
You can spend as much as you want, there is no way to scrutinize properly in such a short timeframe, Period.

Or maybe the embarrassing Ian Duncan Smith discovering he should have been more careful with the fineprints of the WA was not enough to serve as lesson learned ?
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/iain-duncan-smith-up-in-arms-over-withdrawal-agreement-fine-print/04/08/

par13del wrote:
The EU did not break up its union to accommodate the UK leaving, why exactly would the UK allow Scotland to leave and continue to trade with the UK as if they were still a part of that union?


Don't worry.
The minute after a Scot indy vote, CEO of various british company will be knocking down n10 demanding there will be no barrier to English access to Scotish market.
See what I did there?

Tugger wrote:
As I understand it, this is the "exiting trade agreement" for the UK and EU to still have negotiated trade rules between them.

Tugg


Nope.
The "exiting trade agreement" was agrred last year. It's the Withdrawal Agreement.

The newly found deal, is the "new relationship agreement". And yes, of course it will evolve over time. Hopefully more quietly, peacefully (one can dream).


I have a feeling that we will read this text again;

Chris Grey, a professor in Organization Studies at Royal Holloway university, wrote: “So in 2016, despite having no detail on what Brexit meant, people knew exactly what they were voting for. But in 2019, despite having a detailed Withdrawal Agreement, MPs didn’t know what they were voting for.”

“Maybe you should have read it before you voted for it?” Anthony Crutch pointed out.

Will this text coming back yo hount MPs regarding the FTA in 12 month time?

I have a feeling that late 2021 or early 2022 MPs and UK government will have full activity to get out of the just signed FTA.

Anyone bets against?
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:08 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Scotland's government made the calculation and the net result is a LOSS!
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18974 ... -industry/

Seems even ordinary fishermen -once very much pro-brexit because of all the promises made to them- are now left behind completely disillusioned:
“We’ll still be catching the same fish in the same waters as the French, but we’ll have to produce a mountain of paperwork for it. It seems to me what we have achieved is minuscule when you think of the upsets it has caused in families and communities. All that effort for so little.”


That's rather telling that the key sector, totemic for brexiters not only can't claim what should be a logical victory, but even have to defend a loss !!
What a failure.

Speaking about fish, I don't know if you heard about Peter Wood. A glass eels exporter from Gloucester.
A recent interview of him on Skynews did a buzz. "Be careful what you wich for", voted to leave but now regrets. Like so many others after all.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/sky-news-brexit-regret-6873634

A that point you just want to say, "Tough, karma is a bitch".

But then older videos with this guy popped out, with Mike Hookem, UKIP MEP
https://youtu.be/dKzHiJy8rBk

or Gerard Batten, another UKIP MEP
https://youtu.be/eUcc1msZtNw

They used the poor Peter and his business for their propaganda. They lied to him (the ukranian market wasn't accessible anyway), and avoid mentioning the hit with its current market.
He had a perfectly happy business selling his eels in EU.
They covinced him he could make much more money without bloody EU who was preventing him selling its eels for 10x more money.

Turns out he raised barrier to trade with its entire customer base, and can't even reach the promised new markets.

At first I laughed at him, but I then realized how much it must be hard for him to admit how much they fooled him.
Hookem & Batten should be held to account to have used this guy life for their fantasy.
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:16 pm

olle wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
OA260 wrote:

Well they have had years to debate and scrutinise it and the final deal is not that hard to understand even for those with half a brain. The EU released the full document to the public days ago. If the British politicians on both sides cant knuckle down and read 1200 odd pages in a few days then they are being paid too much and should be given a pay cut. Make them do 12 hour days like a lot of workers.

I think Teresa May threw a blinder today when she spoke to “Sir” Keir who said there could have been a better deal . She reminded him he voted against her deal which was a better deal.


Must say I'm surprised by your position.
You can spend as much as you want, there is no way to scrutinize properly in such a short timeframe, Period.

Or maybe the embarrassing Ian Duncan Smith discovering he should have been more careful with the fineprints of the WA was not enough to serve as lesson learned ?
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/iain-duncan-smith-up-in-arms-over-withdrawal-agreement-fine-print/04/08/

par13del wrote:
The EU did not break up its union to accommodate the UK leaving, why exactly would the UK allow Scotland to leave and continue to trade with the UK as if they were still a part of that union?


Don't worry.
The minute after a Scot indy vote, CEO of various british company will be knocking down n10 demanding there will be no barrier to English access to Scotish market.
See what I did there?

Tugger wrote:
As I understand it, this is the "exiting trade agreement" for the UK and EU to still have negotiated trade rules between them.

Tugg


Nope.
The "exiting trade agreement" was agrred last year. It's the Withdrawal Agreement.

The newly found deal, is the "new relationship agreement". And yes, of course it will evolve over time. Hopefully more quietly, peacefully (one can dream).


I have a feeling that we will read this text again;

Chris Grey, a professor in Organization Studies at Royal Holloway university, wrote: “So in 2016, despite having no detail on what Brexit meant, people knew exactly what they were voting for. But in 2019, despite having a detailed Withdrawal Agreement, MPs didn’t know what they were voting for.”

“Maybe you should have read it before you voted for it?” Anthony Crutch pointed out.

Will this text coming back yo hount MPs regarding the FTA in 12 month time?

I have a feeling that late 2021 or early 2022 MPs and UK government will have full activity to get out of the just signed FTA.

Anyone bets against?

Cheerleader time : I discovered Chris Grey blog thanks to a post on this forum, I'm reading it religiously since then, it's a very high quality material to follow Brexit.
https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

He said he'll probably publish a book based on the blog entry, will be a nice testament of those last 5 years.

Fun fact ! Today marks last post on this brexit-blog, author goes Brexit&Beyond now ! Vast program :D
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:58 am

OA260 wrote:

Sadly though the numbers don't add up Scottish friends of mine who voted to remain and are passionate about their Scottish identity even admit it.
The point is are the Scottish people willing to go into years of decline and further losses to break free. Of course that is indeed their right to decide but they should be aware of the issues. The SNP often deflect their failures in domestic issues by ramping up passions about Indyref hoping it will divert attention. Now that a deal is done maybe they will feel the pressure.



Leaving the Union would harm Scotland more than Brexit

Andrew Wilson, author of the SNP’s Sustainable Growth Commission, under the headline 'Scotland can’t afford to remain part of the Union'. For those seeking any fresh insight into either the moral or economic case for breaking up the United Kingdom, it was thin gruel.

Instead of coherent arguments, we were offered bold and unsubstantiated assertions. We are asked to believe that the separatists’ position is 'highly sophisticated' and that because of Brexit, 'staying in the Union is riskier than independence'. Any worries about the economic implications of leaving the UK single market, abandoning the Sterling currency union, losing the economic support offered by UK-wide pooling and sharing, dismantling our shared defence resources and unpicking our deeply integrated machinery of state can apparently be dismissed because, we are assured, 'the SNP prospectus is worked out and clear'.

While it is undeniably true that Brexit has heightened the sense of grievance in Scotland on which the separatists thrive, their dogmatic commitment to independence existed long before Brexit. Are we expected to forget that the SNP campaigned for independence in 2014 in the certain knowledge it would take Scotland out of the EU? Their enthusiasm for the EU is based on opportunism, not principle. But no matter, let’s take the SNP’s commitment to the European project at face value.

If Brexit causes economic damage by creating trade friction between the UK and the EU, placing Scotland on the EU side of UK-EU trade barriers would make things worse for Scots, not better. After over 40 years of unfettered market access, the EU accounts for just 21 per cent of Scotland’s exports compared to 60 per cent to the rest of the UK.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/article/leav ... brexit/amp


One of the pieces that doesn’t come up often (if ever) is that there is a way for Scotland to work out a smooth transition (or indeed permanent solution) that allows it to retain both the benefits of the EU Single Market and the UK internal market.

The precedent and arrangements are already in place - in fact they’re going to get real world testing starting on January 1, 2021. I refer, of course, to the Northern Ireland Protocol.

It would, at the very least, require a vote of independence to become an option. If that were to happen, it would be the easiest way to manage transition while allowing everyone to save face without an economic rupture. It could even become a permanent state of affairs, depending on how hell bent the Scots are on detaching from all things that carry the label “UK”. That’s a decision that can be made down the line.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:25 am

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
But they are not wrong either, yes they get the privilege of the 4 freedoms at a cost of following EU rules and paying for it

Contrary to a Common Market where each member makes its own rules and accepts the rules of the others, a Single Market has 1 single set of rules, and for those to be made it requires a single regulator, which costs money: but in return the members can reduce/get rid off their national regulating agencies.

So, tell me which country has placed total reliance on the EU for all functions of a national government, as a net contributor to the EU budget contributions are in excess of what it would most likely cost to resume those functions in full.
sabenapilot wrote:
A little detail that was almost completely forgotten by the UK, to the point it started these negotiations with the idea it could just freeload on the SM: not just for goods, but for everything. That didn't go very well now did it? Which is why at each turn of events, the UK peeled off a layer of 'unfettered' access until it settled for a very thin FTA wich does little but secure the massive daily flow of all sorts of goods it so much relies on to continue to flow without a significant cost increases from WTO tariffs it would have to impose!

Sorry here you are wrong the original agreement was that the UK if an acceptable agreement could not be reached in regards to the Irish border question with the EU under May we would remain in the CU/SM in perpetuity and still paying our membership fees with no seat at the table. Theresa May did not believe in Brexit to her the negotiations were a cost minimisation exercise.
David Cameron stated from the start we would be leaving the CU/SM and that entailed negations on a trade agreement, May wanted a closely aligned agreement which in turn meant a deal of what Barnier was first complaining about holding up the PD at every turn for a dynamic alignment which Johnson PD never agreed to, the PD was for “existing common standards” or non-regression which this agreement recognises.
As for the question of unfettered it wasn’t actually “peeled off” so far in what I have read it is quite advantageous to the UK considering the red lines of the EU placed before negotiations started. The agreement allows for a trusted trader scheme which would reduce the trade burdens for each party.






sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
No I don't, and I have great respect for those who think the price is worth paying.
What I have a problem with it the fact that Brexit was sold to the public as making economic sense too, while it doesn't.
Could that possible have been because of some fear not everybody who voted leave was so keep to pay the price for it?
And could that explain why BoJo now signed up to a sell-out deal which brings the UK very little over no deal, other than avoid the need to impose WTO tariffs on most goods imported to the UK from the EU, and thus have British consumers start having to pay very noticeably for their choice in the referendum?

Are you really complaining about a thin deal, except for fisheries where he should have held out, one needs to compare trading on WTO terms to the deal and for a thin trade agreement with CETA, are we better off than either than them? From what have read yes, I think we have a better agreement than both WTO & CETA
sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
A while ago pro-remain were telling us we could not have that unless we signed up to dynamic alignment in perpetuity for that type of access to the SM , now it’s a great thing both sides have zero quota/ tariffs without signing up to EU rules hypocrisy at its best.

First of all, you may have noticed the deal is only covering the part of trade where the EU is having a trade surplus (goods), whereas it leaves out the parts where the UK had a trade surplus (services/finances)... While the agreement is applicable to 'both sides' as you say, it is to the overal benefit of 'one side' only: the EU.

Here I think you are making a mountain out of a mole hill, while it would have been nice to put it to bed in one agreement, it does have benefits on being separate. Both the EU/UK have agreed that both Parties will, by March 2021, agree a Memorandum of Understanding establishing the framework for cooperation in financial services.
I would have to go looking for the details again but didn’t both the EU/UK grant some extension to financial service to continue temporally after the transition period, which most likely would tie into the MOU period.





sabenapilot wrote:
If the UK does not move in line with the EU in future, the deal gets unilaterally modified to erase any competitive advantage that may have been gained.

And that works both ways

sabenapilot wrote:
Compare that to the Norway deal where Norway has to move in sync, or to the Swiss deal where the Swiss can decide not to move and then the EU has to make the tough call to end the whole deal at once, or just accept the Swiss rebellion. In the UK case, the EU has the unique ability to just change the modalities of bilateral trade under the deal, so it can return the modalities back to their advantage as it is now going to be the case!

And again, that works both ways with the exception we do not have to move with future EU amendments unlike the Norway/swiss agreements

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
I wouldn’t say nothing in the deal, the UK held firm to its main red lines for sovereignty, no overarching supremacy of the EU over the UK Parliamentary & Judicial sovereignty.

Yet that was automatically returned to the UK upon completion of the article 50 process!
The UK doesn't need this trade agreement to gain that: it is already automatically secured in just 2 days from now, deal or no deal?

No, agree we didn’t need to have a trade deal to reach that position, but the crux of the EU position for favourable access to the Single market we would have to be in “dynamic alignment” in fact Barnier was all fluff in his press conferences holding up the PD saying we are breeching it and pro-remain mob on here were quite unequivocal clear in that was a consequence of continued access to the single market, It was a very substantial win for the UK in this agreement.
sabenapilot wrote:
If I hear you talk, you'd think Brexit hadn't happened yet, and the transition period of article 50 is still valid?

What?
Not sure what you are trying to say here

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
It’s the EU who are unhappy with the current trade agreements with the Swiss ands it’s the EU that want to end multiple agreements

Who told you that if I may ask?
if you follow a bit the debate in Switzerland, you'll find both parties to be very unhappy about the complexity of their current bilateral relationship, which is why they are renegotiating.

It has been common knowledge that the EU has said the EU will not renegotiate the framework treaty with Switzerland unless it negotiates under a single agreement instead of the many they have now. The Swiss wanted to renegotiate some points which is vastly different from saying they support the EU position of a single agreement.



One of the things the EU doesn't like is precisely the fact it can not unilaterally change the modalities of the bilateral trade when there's a regulatory market distrotion occuring; it can only accept any Swiss deviation or terminate the whole deal. In that respect, the flexibility of the deal with the UK really forms a template for all future arrangements with the other EU sattellite countries.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:30 am

ElPistolero wrote:
OA260 wrote:

Sadly though the numbers don't add up Scottish friends of mine who voted to remain and are passionate about their Scottish identity even admit it.
The point is are the Scottish people willing to go into years of decline and further losses to break free. Of course that is indeed their right to decide but they should be aware of the issues. The SNP often deflect their failures in domestic issues by ramping up passions about Indyref hoping it will divert attention. Now that a deal is done maybe they will feel the pressure.



Leaving the Union would harm Scotland more than Brexit

Andrew Wilson, author of the SNP’s Sustainable Growth Commission, under the headline 'Scotland can’t afford to remain part of the Union'. For those seeking any fresh insight into either the moral or economic case for breaking up the United Kingdom, it was thin gruel.

Instead of coherent arguments, we were offered bold and unsubstantiated assertions. We are asked to believe that the separatists’ position is 'highly sophisticated' and that because of Brexit, 'staying in the Union is riskier than independence'. Any worries about the economic implications of leaving the UK single market, abandoning the Sterling currency union, losing the economic support offered by UK-wide pooling and sharing, dismantling our shared defence resources and unpicking our deeply integrated machinery of state can apparently be dismissed because, we are assured, 'the SNP prospectus is worked out and clear'.

While it is undeniably true that Brexit has heightened the sense of grievance in Scotland on which the separatists thrive, their dogmatic commitment to independence existed long before Brexit. Are we expected to forget that the SNP campaigned for independence in 2014 in the certain knowledge it would take Scotland out of the EU? Their enthusiasm for the EU is based on opportunism, not principle. But no matter, let’s take the SNP’s commitment to the European project at face value.

If Brexit causes economic damage by creating trade friction between the UK and the EU, placing Scotland on the EU side of UK-EU trade barriers would make things worse for Scots, not better. After over 40 years of unfettered market access, the EU accounts for just 21 per cent of Scotland’s exports compared to 60 per cent to the rest of the UK.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/article/leav ... brexit/amp


One of the pieces that doesn’t come up often (if ever) is that there is a way for Scotland to work out a smooth transition (or indeed permanent solution) that allows it to retain both the benefits of the EU Single Market and the UK internal market.

The precedent and arrangements are already in place - in fact they’re going to get real world testing starting on January 1, 2021. I refer, of course, to the Northern Ireland Protocol.

It would, at the very least, require a vote of independence to become an option. If that were to happen, it would be the easiest way to manage transition while allowing everyone to save face without an economic rupture. It could even become a permanent state of affairs, depending on how hell bent the Scots are on detaching from all things that carry the label “UK”. That’s a decision that can be made down the line.


Not sure how the NIP comes into play when hypothetically the Scottish are independent nation whereas NI is still UK sovereign territory, and if the Scott's become part of the EU as per the agreement EU/UK agreement access Scottish access has to be negotiated other wise they trade on WTO with the UK internal market as part the EU/UK agreement any new members do not directly gain access to the agreement
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2360
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:01 am

A101 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
OA260 wrote:

Sadly though the numbers don't add up Scottish friends of mine who voted to remain and are passionate about their Scottish identity even admit it.
The point is are the Scottish people willing to go into years of decline and further losses to break free. Of course that is indeed their right to decide but they should be aware of the issues. The SNP often deflect their failures in domestic issues by ramping up passions about Indyref hoping it will divert attention. Now that a deal is done maybe they will feel the pressure.



Leaving the Union would harm Scotland more than Brexit

Andrew Wilson, author of the SNP’s Sustainable Growth Commission, under the headline 'Scotland can’t afford to remain part of the Union'. For those seeking any fresh insight into either the moral or economic case for breaking up the United Kingdom, it was thin gruel.

Instead of coherent arguments, we were offered bold and unsubstantiated assertions. We are asked to believe that the separatists’ position is 'highly sophisticated' and that because of Brexit, 'staying in the Union is riskier than independence'. Any worries about the economic implications of leaving the UK single market, abandoning the Sterling currency union, losing the economic support offered by UK-wide pooling and sharing, dismantling our shared defence resources and unpicking our deeply integrated machinery of state can apparently be dismissed because, we are assured, 'the SNP prospectus is worked out and clear'.

While it is undeniably true that Brexit has heightened the sense of grievance in Scotland on which the separatists thrive, their dogmatic commitment to independence existed long before Brexit. Are we expected to forget that the SNP campaigned for independence in 2014 in the certain knowledge it would take Scotland out of the EU? Their enthusiasm for the EU is based on opportunism, not principle. But no matter, let’s take the SNP’s commitment to the European project at face value.

If Brexit causes economic damage by creating trade friction between the UK and the EU, placing Scotland on the EU side of UK-EU trade barriers would make things worse for Scots, not better. After over 40 years of unfettered market access, the EU accounts for just 21 per cent of Scotland’s exports compared to 60 per cent to the rest of the UK.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/article/leav ... brexit/amp


One of the pieces that doesn’t come up often (if ever) is that there is a way for Scotland to work out a smooth transition (or indeed permanent solution) that allows it to retain both the benefits of the EU Single Market and the UK internal market.

The precedent and arrangements are already in place - in fact they’re going to get real world testing starting on January 1, 2021. I refer, of course, to the Northern Ireland Protocol.

It would, at the very least, require a vote of independence to become an option. If that were to happen, it would be the easiest way to manage transition while allowing everyone to save face without an economic rupture. It could even become a permanent state of affairs, depending on how hell bent the Scots are on detaching from all things that carry the label “UK”. That’s a decision that can be made down the line.


Not sure how the NIP comes into play when hypothetically the Scottish are independent nation whereas NI is still UK sovereign territory, and if the Scott's become part of the EU as per the agreement EU/UK agreement access Scottish access has to be negotiated other wise they trade on WTO with the UK internal market as part the EU/UK agreement any new members do not directly gain access to the agreement


Indeed. Hence “transition”.

And as we know, transition periods seem to increase hopes of re-uniting, so a long one might win favor from unionists. I suspect it might even be the most sensible long term arrangement from an economic perspective.

Really depends on how positive or negative the rest of the UK’s posture is, and how absolutist the Indy die hards are. After all, an independence vote can either be leveraged for independence, or for special status (“compromise”)that comes with NI-type EU benefits.

I suspect a good chunk of SNP-ers would settle for the latter - they’re already ready to surrender monetary policy sovereignty to the Bank of England to keep the GBP. Can’t see the unionists balking at retaining even notional sovereignty of Scotland, but who knows these days.
 
JJJ
Posts: 4105
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:05 am

A101 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
A101 wrote:

Don’t shoot the messenger just because you don’t like the message


The message is as vacuous as the messenger. ECJ, sovereignty, etc.

I was almost expecting blue passports to show up.


It’s just like you don’t like any counter view that go against the worshiping of the EU views


Quite the straw man there. Setting the record straight when confronted with the plethora of misdirected criticism of the EU can only be considered worshipping from a very very extreme point of view.

I like facts when speaking about trade terms, the easier the better for everyone involved. As discussed previously, trade deals are not the tool to assert independence.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:20 am

JJJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

The message is as vacuous as the messenger. ECJ, sovereignty, etc.

I was almost expecting blue passports to show up.


It’s just like you don’t like any counter view that go against the worshiping of the EU views


Quite the straw man there. Setting the record straight when confronted with the plethora of misdirected criticism of the EU can only be considered worshipping from a very very extreme point of view.

I like facts when speaking about trade terms, the easier the better for everyone involved. As discussed previously, trade deals are not the tool to assert independence.


Good grief

Really when the alternative is following withdrawal is to re-enter vassalage under trade terms is acceptable :banghead:
Last edited by A101 on Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
LJ
Posts: 5468
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:20 am

A101 wrote:
I don’t think anyone has claimed that it is a clear win in terms of access and trade barriers, we always knew that there would be


Maybe you should talk to Boris Johnson himself. He seems to think that there will be no new trade barriers (just "change").

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55486081
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:31 am

LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
I don’t think anyone has claimed that it is a clear win in terms of access and trade barriers, we always knew that there would be


Maybe you should talk to Boris Johnson himself. He seems to think that there will be no new trade barriers (just "change").

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55486081


One could argue change is the customs checks on goods, but the actual free trade will continue. Free trade is a largely policy under which governments or in the case of the EU organisation impose absolutely no tariffs, taxes, or duties on imports, or quotas on imports/exports which the EU/UK trade agreement does from what I have read.


But I understand what you what you are getting at
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10331
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:21 am

A101 wrote:
LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
I don’t think anyone has claimed that it is a clear win in terms of access and trade barriers, we always knew that there would be


Maybe you should talk to Boris Johnson himself. He seems to think that there will be no new trade barriers (just "change").

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55486081


One could argue change is the customs checks on goods, but the actual free trade will continue. Free trade is a largely policy under which governments or in the case of the EU organisation impose absolutely no tariffs, taxes, or duties on imports, or quotas on imports/exports which the EU/UK trade agreement does from what I have read.


But I understand what you what you are getting at


The current deal is just a bridging solution until the UK is able to move into the future. In 2 or 3 years, the UK must have made up their own regulations and modernized the economy to become a global nation, that is when the borders to the EU must be closed and the deal needs to end. I can see the bad deal with the EU ending once a deal with the USA is made.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:05 am

seahawk wrote:
A101 wrote:
LJ wrote:

Maybe you should talk to Boris Johnson himself. He seems to think that there will be no new trade barriers (just "change").

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55486081


One could argue change is the customs checks on goods, but the actual free trade will continue. Free trade is a largely policy under which governments or in the case of the EU organisation impose absolutely no tariffs, taxes, or duties on imports, or quotas on imports/exports which the EU/UK trade agreement does from what I have read.


But I understand what you what you are getting at


The current deal is just a bridging solution until the UK is able to move into the future. In 2 or 3 years, the UK must have made up their own regulations and modernized the economy to become a global nation, that is when the borders to the EU must be closed and the deal needs to end. I can see the bad deal with the EU ending once a deal with the USA is made.



Actually i dont see the UK moving to far from current standards if the EU where to grant equivalency, what i do see is a trade agreement similar to this and Japan
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:13 am

Gibraltar seems to head for No Deal.
 
JJJ
Posts: 4105
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:29 am

A101 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
A101 wrote:

It’s just like you don’t like any counter view that go against the worshiping of the EU views


Quite the straw man there. Setting the record straight when confronted with the plethora of misdirected criticism of the EU can only be considered worshipping from a very very extreme point of view.

I like facts when speaking about trade terms, the easier the better for everyone involved. As discussed previously, trade deals are not the tool to assert independence.


Good grief

Really when the alternative is following withdrawal is to re-enter vassalage under trade terms is acceptable :banghead:


"Vassalage" in trade terms doesn't mean absolutely anything. Everyone is subject to rules on one form or another.
 
WIederling
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:42 am

Aesma wrote:
Also for a small country with a harsh landscape and small population, freedom of movement is a great benefit I would surmise. I can't find numbers at a quick glance, how many Norwegians live or work in the EU ?


Place the question in reverse :-)
lots of EU professionals have moved to NO. just short of 20% are currently foreigners in NO, increasing all the time:
https://www.nordisch.info/norwegen/wie- ... ommen-sie/
( German but numbers are polyglott :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
LJ
Posts: 5468
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit Part X: dark days before Christmas

Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:45 am

A101 wrote:
LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
I don’t think anyone has claimed that it is a clear win in terms of access and trade barriers, we always knew that there would be


Maybe you should talk to Boris Johnson himself. He seems to think that there will be no new trade barriers (just "change").

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55486081


One could argue change is the customs checks on goods, but the actual free trade will continue. Free trade is a largely policy under which governments or in the case of the EU organisation impose absolutely no tariffs, taxes, or duties on imports, or quotas on imports/exports which the EU/UK trade agreement does from what I have read.


But I understand what you what you are getting at


The quotes posted on a blog are more clear:

Thus, even in parliament, introducing the Bill, Johnson manages to bury the truth in a barrage of fluff. “In less than 48 hours we will leave the EU single market and the customs union as we promised”, he says, then declaring: “British exporters will not face a sudden thicket of trade barriers, but rather, for the first time in the history of EU agreements, zero tariffs and zero quotas”.


https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-a-sense-of-stupidity/

Or are you now saying that the word "sudden" means that the exporters should have realized this prior to the agreement (relying on information from the UK government which wasn't provided)?

BTW there will not be any free trade in all goods. Some goods cannot be exported to the EU as of tomorrow thus even that statement is incorrect (though any Brexiteer will argue that this is a tiny part of the total trade). Then again, he needed to sell his agreement. Now he's done that, he can start telling the truth.
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