cpd wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Jalap wrote:

Yet there are very few examples of true succes for this strategy.
Unless in totalitarian countries (China) or isolated countries (New Zealand).

Ireland had a very strict lockdown in October/November. Very little virus left at the end. Now beginning of January and they have record high numbers of infections again.

Unless if you truely get to zero, total lockdowns only create a pendulum where you'll have wave after wave. Since 6 months of total lockdown Chinese style is impossible in the West, a continuous semi-lockdown is the only realistic approach. This is the price we pay for freedom.

Ireland was not even close to zero new cases when they eased their October lockdown in December and the current surge happened soon after that easing.
What you are showing is a textbook example of reopening too soon.

Lockdown to zero cases means literally zero cases.
Not 1000 per day, not 500 per day, not even 10 per day.
Get the case count to zero per day and maintain it for 3-4 weeks and then you can reopen domestically.
That's what New Zealand did.

What Ireland did is the same mistakes that have been repeated so many times now by EU countries.
Cases go down, then they reopen too soon. Cases surge again. Close everything up.
Repeat.

The cumulative effects of repeated lockdowns are worse than a single proper longer lockdown.

Coronavirus: Republic of Ireland to move to highest restrictions
Published 19 October 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55130966

Coronavirus: Ireland's shops reopen as restrictions eased
Published 1 December 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55130966



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/ireland/


Stop saying that a reset lockdown to zero would not work, citing the examples that are doing it wrong.
It's our only way out and it's not an eternal option.

Problem is that countries will reopen borders with others that haven’t had these stringent lockdown measures, or the fringe loonies in a country will do their best to get infected and spread the virus as far and as quickly as they can.

This morning I’m waiting to get a quick takeaway breakfast and wearing a mask as required by law, while the lady also waiting nearby doesn’t even wear a mask. Unfortunately no police were around to fine her $215.

It should be a $2150 fine really! Hit them hard if they want to be irresponsible and ruin it for everyone.

It should be the Indonesian system of being assigned grave digging detail if defying mask guidelines.

Now I fully understand why actual pilots in Civ Av have been forced off this forum and talk about armchair pilots. Everyone is an armchair epidemiologist or virologist or respiratory therapist or gastroenterologist or cardiologist or etc. etc. etc. now. Everyone is MPH, MD, DO, PhD. It is absolutely infuriating.

Just curious, how long do y’all think the pandemic, side effects from it and the recovery will take in your opinion?

I live in Kent in England. There is a very high level of new infections each day in this area. Signs of the health system cracking are starting to appear. Ambulances are being drafted in from other counties to maintain the ambulance service.

What happens when the high infection level hits those other counties?

On the good news side, I hear that the UK aims to vaccinate 13 million people by the end of February (about 20% of the population). While this may not sound like a very high percentage, most people vaccinated will be people in the groups most likely to need hospital treatment if they contract the virus, so I think the demand for hospital treatment due to COVID-19 infection should fall enormously.

Not sure we will reach that 13m by then, but lets be positive. I'm in Manchester. Cases rising, but maybe not quite a rapidly yet.

I think we need to really remember that a vaccine is aimed at reducing severe illness in people. It will not reduce transmission on its own. People seem to be under the impression that is what a vaccine will do and that it is the silver bullet. Well, I'm hearing a lot of that.

The UK is in for a very tough time now for the next 2-3 months. More businesses will collapse, the economy will shrink again.

linco22 wrote:

I think we need to really remember that a vaccine is aimed at reducing severe illness in people. It will not reduce transmission on its own. People seem to be under the impression that is what a vaccine will do and that it is the silver bullet. Well, I'm hearing a lot of that.

I would be pleased if vaccination meant that your body disabled or destroyed the virus as soon as it appeared in you so you did not become contagious. I don't know if that is the case.

linco22 wrote:

The UK is in for a very tough time now for the next 2-3 months. More businesses will collapse, the economy will shrink again.

I think you are right there but we could be lucky. The NHS here gave more than 13 million flu jabs last winter. At a time of national emergency it should not be such a stretch to do 250,000 vaccinations a day. If they do that for 3 months I think we will see the COVID-19 problem reduced to something of a much more manageable.size - a big problem rather than a crippling problem.

Here in Spain the rate per 100k continues to rise. Mid December we were at 180 per 100k but now its back to 270 per 100k. I’d say we will be going hard lockdown soon.

Also, some regions are going very slow with the vaccine, here in Madrid, after a week, we’ve only reached 6% of what was scheduled but other areas are much higher.

mad99 wrote:

Here in Spain the rate per 100k continues to rise. Mid December we were at 180 per 100k but now its back to 270 per 100k. I’d say we will be going hard lockdown soon.

My area of Thanet in Kent, England was 22 per 100,000 about 3 or 4 months ago. Itt is now over 600. Source: https://www.thanet.gov.uk/

art wrote:

mad99 wrote:

Here in Spain the rate per 100k continues to rise. Mid December we were at 180 per 100k but now its back to 270 per 100k. I’d say we will be going hard lockdown soon.

My area of Thanet in Kent, England was 22 per 100,000 about 3 or 4 months ago. Itt is now over 600. Source: https://www.thanet.gov.uk/

Some areas in Spain are like that as well (maybe not 600 but close enough). At least you’ve got an aggressive vaccine plan, we do not ☹

UK the last few days has passed Spain in number of total dead per 100 000 citizen.

UK is now also on par with Czech Republic that was so successful in the first wave.

Germany and Denmark is still much better the EU in general but the numbers go fast in the wrong way...

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?ar ... ues=deaths

Delta350 wrote:

Just curious, how long do y’all think the pandemic, side effects from it and the recovery will take in your opinion?

Individually I have no intention to find out.

Otherwise from a world perspective it could take three more years. Vaccines need time to be distributed and administered, we need time for the effects to occur, etc.

It is going to be a rough few years still.

cpd wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Jalap wrote:

Yet there are very few examples of true succes for this strategy.
Unless in totalitarian countries (China) or isolated countries (New Zealand).

Ireland had a very strict lockdown in October/November. Very little virus left at the end. Now beginning of January and they have record high numbers of infections again.

Unless if you truely get to zero, total lockdowns only create a pendulum where you'll have wave after wave. Since 6 months of total lockdown Chinese style is impossible in the West, a continuous semi-lockdown is the only realistic approach. This is the price we pay for freedom.

Ireland was not even close to zero new cases when they eased their October lockdown in December and the current surge happened soon after that easing.
What you are showing is a textbook example of reopening too soon.

Lockdown to zero cases means literally zero cases.
Not 1000 per day, not 500 per day, not even 10 per day.
Get the case count to zero per day and maintain it for 3-4 weeks and then you can reopen domestically.
That's what New Zealand did.

What Ireland did is the same mistakes that have been repeated so many times now by EU countries.
Cases go down, then they reopen too soon. Cases surge again. Close everything up.
Repeat.

The cumulative effects of repeated lockdowns are worse than a single proper longer lockdown.

Coronavirus: Republic of Ireland to move to highest restrictions
Published 19 October 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55130966

Coronavirus: Ireland's shops reopen as restrictions eased
Published 1 December 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55130966



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/ireland/


Stop saying that a reset lockdown to zero would not work, citing the examples that are doing it wrong.
It's our only way out and it's not an eternal option.

Problem is that countries will reopen borders with others that haven’t had these stringent lockdown measures, or the fringe loonies in a country will do their best to get infected and spread the virus as far and as quickly as they can.

This morning I’m waiting to get a quick takeaway breakfast and wearing a mask as required by law, while the lady also waiting nearby doesn’t even wear a mask. Unfortunately no police were around to fine her $215.

It should be a $2150 fine really! Hit them hard if they want to be irresponsible and ruin it for everyone.

If you think about it, it's insane the level of mismanagement at governmental level in this crisis.
Makes me wonder about all the other things that they govern over and imagine the chaos if Covid-19 was as fatal as Ebola.

I too am worried that if a reset lockdown is enacted, governments would be too tempted to throw their borders open to other countries that did not do a full reset.
Common sense is nowhere to be found so count on them to waste months of hard work in a few weeks and then come saying that "lockdowns don't work".
The EU needs a common strategy and policy but the current leadership is too weak.

I too see daily issues with regards to masks and distancing.

Just a few hours ago I was standing in line at the cashier of a supermarket keeping 2+ meters of distance from the preceding customer, when this idiot cut in front of me as if I didn't exist.
Me "Excuse me sir, I'm standing in line."
Idiot "Ow ok you can stand in front of me"
Me " Ever heard of distancing? If I stand in front of you, there won't be any distancing. Look at the marks on the floor. But you know what, go ahead idiot." then I moved my stuff backwards violently, everyone turns around.
Idiot moves away to the other line.

Many among us not wearing their masks (properly) on trains, bus, aircraft.
Many among us giggling when I show up with my real mask (full face), but interestingly I see less and less people giggling. Some even starting to ask where they can buy the full face mask and what to look for.
I even start to see some among us wearing half face masks now.

I travelled a lot in the past few months. In fact, almost at the same level as pre-covid. Yesterday intercontinental flight, today intra-EU, the next flight on Saturday.
Negative PCR test in October, November, December, January.
A good mask is probably better than any vaccine.

If everyone would wear a 20 USD half face mask that is virtually endlessly reusable, they would save money, they would not get infected and it would be much more comfortable.

IMO We should also stop referring to people who ignore these measures as "people" in the pural third person, ie "they". "People don't follow the rules", etc...
Unfortunately, we are those "people", we are this flawed society, each one of us. Well, some of us more than others.
I can't even get my other half to wear a half face mask or eye protection, although fortunately N95 is not a problem and distancing is respected. So who am I to judge those "people" who don't even wear masks?
It's unbelievable how incoherent, careless, reckless most of us are acting.
We may master fire, electricity, nuclear fission, aerospace, but we are still a very rudimental and primitive society, so unfortunately, in the face of a little virus, we are being our own worst enemy. Having this conversation on this forum, exchanging opinions and suggestions across country borders and backgrounds (without power of decision) is probably one of the most advanced things going on agasint Covid.

Speaking about Ebola, would it be possible for COVID to merge with Ebola and create a SuperVirus "COVIBOLA"?

P S. Waterbomber2 you shouldn't be traveling. You cannot berate other people and then ignore the advice yourself.

I think it’s only starting slowly now that vaccines are being distributed, once most countries with slow and overly bureaucratic governments (hello EU) finally get to the “date we said we’re going to start mass vaccinations from early on, we’re not slow now but things need to be prepared”, numbers of vaccinated people will go up verrry quickly. EU countries tend to be very effective and quick, but it always takes an eternity to go through planning and preparing stuff.

Anyways, with more vaccines coming online, systems starting to warm up, plus - and that’s what surprisingly isn’t really mentioned - the number of people who already went through an infections herd immunity effects will soon start to kick in.

I still hope that my points turn out to be true and that this will end sooner than we think. We’ll see another rise in case numbers now and for the coming weeks, which will hopefully mean that the final minutes of the fireworks are starting - and it will end as quickly as it started...

Dieuwer wrote:

Speaking about Ebola, would it be possible for COVID to merge with Ebola and create a SuperVirus "COVIBOLA"?

P S. Waterbomber2 you shouldn't be traveling. You cannot berate other people and then ignore the advice yourself.

I'm glad you said that.
To be honest, not a big fan of travels. Especially on the intercontinental when at meal time, all the masks go down and it's happy hour for Covid.
This being said, my OCD has protected me so far and my travels are quite spartan.

I'll walk you through my recent intercontinental trip:

-PCR testing Mission Impossible.
Went to take the test 48 hours before departure, despite it being required to be taken max. 48 hours before arrival. But you have no choice because you need to get the result on time and need to produce a printed copy. People without negative test would be denied boarding, a good thing but at the same time a tough requirement.
Test center closed due to a storm, so test taken 26 hours before departure. PCR test results take 24-48 hours. Figurative nail biting when by check-in closure you still don't have the result. You produce the proof of test taken. Test result comes back negative when I arrived at the gate. Sigh of relief.
Same story on the way back. Not easy to find a test center in a foreign country that you have never been to. Again nail biting hoping to get the result on time. Planning is key.

-Planning eating, drinking, bathroom needs.
I decided to not eat nor drink the morning of my departure to avoid having to use the lavatories on board the flight.
Even the evening before I only had a light meal.
I did not eat nor drink anything on the 11 hour flight and the return to avoid removing the mask, did not use the lavatory once.
I did it twice, so it can be done, actually it is very doable.

-Getting to the airport
I have the choice between public transportation or my car. But with Covid this is not a choice. Car it is.

-Mask wearing
The moment I park my car, I wear my full face mask with a surgical mask on the exhaust valve and a standby N95 mask without valve on the throat.
I will not remove the full face mask the whole trip except when going through security where my full face mask goes into the Xray scanner and where temperature is measured with thermal camera's.
At that moment, I take a deep breath, hold it, wear the N95 but try to hold my breath and keep eyes closed or at least one eye (still a 50% reduction of eye exposure) until I can get my full face mask back on.
Mask only comes off in the hotel room after having ventilated it at least 30 minutes, to avoid infection through suspended breath droplets left by housekeeping staff. Pre-departure, hotels chosen based on ability to open window/terrace access. Some bookings changed after some hotels had windows that couldn't open.

-Avoiding other passengers/people
Choosing seats aboard is a routine but I refuse to pay a dime to choose my seat. This is criminal behavior during a pandemic IMO and I refuse to support it.
A dozen passengers at the gate not wearing their masks properly, so wait far away until all of them are boarded, board as last, eventually to ditch own assigned seat and find a lower risk seat. Not possible in this case as the flight is full, everyone seated shoulder to shoulder, on the return middle seat empty,
Masks come off during the meal service, mine stays on, I collect bottles of drinks and food that I can keep for later and making sure to show everything at customs to avoid trouble.
At the hotel's pool and external spaces, I wore a 3M 8833 N100 mask plus a surgical mask on top to cover the exhaust valve. Yes even while swimming in the pool. A little girl innocently and playfully tries to swim close, swinged my arms to chase her away.
Identified a hotel guest who was wearing a half face mask but without surgical mask on the exhaust valve, so kept my distances.

-Consuming food and drinks at destination.
Drink only from cans/bottles using straws, no glass use.
Cutlery disinfected using own 70% alcohol desinfectant, choosing only warm cooked meals, avoiding sandwiches and salads.


Risk-assessment of the entire trip carried out in advance.
It's a bit spartan and full-on mania.
So yeah, those who can't produce this level of mania, which is most, should not travel.
Airline crews seem to appreciate (over)careful people.

Blah blah blah rules for thee not for me

Every post you advocate that the only way to stop this is by an impossibly full blown quarantine, no one leaving their home. And then you continually travel.

Hypocrites are the worst kinds

FGITD wrote:

Blah blah blah rules for thee not for me

Every post you advocate that the only way to stop this is by an impossibly full blown quarantine, no one leaving their home. And then you continually travel.

Hypocrites are the worst kinds

No travel here, haven’t been anywhere since August 2019.

Didn’t even leave my city since then.

The more we try and stay with this business as usual approach the longer we will continue to have these rolling outbreaks and rolling shutdowns again and again.

I don’t care if I cannot travel overseas, but I do want to be able to sometime resume local life as normal without the risk of getting very sick and very unfit as a result of this disease.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

If you think about it, it's insane the level of mismanagement at governmental level in this crisis.

It's far too easy to blame governments. Yes, errors were made and there will be more.
But it is't governments that are infecting people. It's the people doing it to themselves.
The primary measures are people should maintain physiscal distance, no indoor gatherings, ventilate spaces, respect quarantine, ... . And yes, no travel.

In most countries, people just aren't disciplined enought to do this. Or even opposed to following these measures.
It is only called selfishness or stupidity when we talk about others.

Who here on this forum can truely say they follow every single rule and recommendation? As for me, I don't meet with people, wear mask where obligatory, work home, keep distance, don't travel abroad. But I don't always desinfect my hands every time I go out and we sometimes have other kids in the house (and needless to say they don't keep distance with my kids). And I supported friends who didn't quarantine their daughter after travel because I knew they were in isolation during travel and because this girl is the favourite training-mate of my daughters in their sport (training under 13yo is allowed here).

In a totalitarian regime, all this can be enforced. But not in democratic countries.
Like I said earlier, this is the price we pay for freedom. Freedom brings crime, terrorism, reality-television. And now also a pandemic.

Most people follow most rules, but most people will also cut off some edges. You can focus on polititcians or on idiots you see here and there. But that's all pointless. In a free world, this virus will always win. Untill it starts to lose because of herd immunity or a vaccine.

In any case, I'm very happy to live in virus-infected Europe and not in virus-free China.

FGITD wrote:

Blah blah blah rules for thee not for me

Every post you advocate that the only way to stop this is by an impossibly full blown quarantine, no one leaving their home. And then you continually travel.

Hypocrites are the worst kinds

I'm advocating a reset lockdown, but until it happens, nothing is going to improve so I try to make the best out of the situation.
If and when the reset lockdown happens, I will of course be happy to stay put and be part of it.
But how long until they figure it out? Germany is already extending their semi-lockdown and tightening it up, a glimmer of hope but until our own General Charles de Gaulle comes along to take leadership, I don't see anything happening.

I'm doing my part in this too.
I wrote to governments and Mr. Fauci repeatedly. The cr*p I write is not only on airliners.net, it's also in those peoples' inboxes.
In public, I'm showing off my full face mask so that people start wondering if their thin surgical masks are enough to protect themselves.
At every opportunity, I try to educate people on distancing but also safe practices.

It is also very important for me to see what is going on during the pandemic.
What are other countries doing differently and how are they doing it?
How are persons behaving against Covid in different places?

Of course, you can also stay in your armchair, call people names and follow incompetent government guidelines, some insufficient, some unnecessary and ineffective.

Here in the US, our MSM is backhanding the current Administration about the vaccine rollout here. And so, for reference, since our MSM hasn't found the time to do so, can someone please tell me about how well the vaccine rollout is going in the Glorious EU???

DIRECTFLT wrote:

Here in the US, our MSM is backhanding the current Administration about the vaccine rollout here. And so, for reference, since our MSM hasn't found the time to do so, can someone please tell me about how well the vaccine rollout is going in the Glorious EU???

Have a look here from Deutsche Welle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-E1JOv1bR0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QACFQNXf7qo

Aaron747 wrote:

DIRECTFLT wrote:

Here in the US, our MSM is backhanding the current Administration about the vaccine rollout here. And so, for reference, since our MSM hasn't found the time to do so, can someone please tell me about how well the vaccine rollout is going in the Glorious EU???

Have a look here from Deutsche Welle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-E1JOv1bR0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QACFQNXf7qo

I was hoping for more current information, as the complaining from out MSM have come in just the past few days, and those reports are from more than a week ago...

DIRECTFLT wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

DIRECTFLT wrote:

Here in the US, our MSM is backhanding the current Administration about the vaccine rollout here. And so, for reference, since our MSM hasn't found the time to do so, can someone please tell me about how well the vaccine rollout is going in the Glorious EU???

Have a look here from Deutsche Welle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-E1JOv1bR0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QACFQNXf7qo

I was hoping for more current information, as the complaining from out MSM have come in just the past few days, and those reports are from more than a week ago...

Yes but they give you an idea of how things are organized for rollout there.

Evolution seems to show that even in the face of a historic plague homo sapiens (emphasize the saps) cannot maintain social isolation for more than a few months. What better way to show we (non-science alert: rant follows) are first cousin to chimps, also maybe chumps, and definitely in the thrall of trumps. As in the virus trumps Trump, his followers, and unfortunately the rest of us.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

P S. Risk-assessment of the entire trip carried out in advance.
It's a bit spartan and full-on mania.
So yeah, those who can't produce this level of mania, which is most, should not travel.
Airline crews seem to appreciate (over)careful people.

You’re still putting yourself and others at elevated risk of transmission and spreading of the virus than you would otherwise even with your manic precautions and risk assessments, which is ironic given your supposed beliefs.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I'm advocating a reset lockdown, but until it happens, nothing is going to improve

I beg to differ. I think that something is going to improve. Several things - immunity will become more widespread, geared to the rate at which vaccination progresses. This will depress infection numbers from where they would have been. Serious illness from catching the virus (requiring hospitalisation) in those vaccinated who do get it will disappear or nearly disappear. Loads on hospital health service providers dealing with COVID-19 will diminish. The collateral damage suffered by those with non-COVID related health problems will reduce..

I would not describe that as nothing improving.

PS Israel is vaccinating its population very quickly. Let's follow what happens there to see which of our two views prevails there. No conjecture, no hypothesis required.

art wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I'm advocating a reset lockdown, but until it happens, nothing is going to improve

I beg to differ. I think that something is going to improve. Several things - immunity will become more widespread, geared to the rate at which vaccination progresses. This will depress infection numbers from where they would have been. Serious illness from catching the virus (requiring hospitalisation) in those vaccinated who do get it will disappear or nearly disappear. Loads on hospital health service providers dealing with COVID-19 will diminish. The collateral damage suffered by those with non-COVID related health problems will reduce..

I would not describe that as nothing improving.

PS Israel is vaccinating its population very quickly. Let's follow what happens there to see which of our two views prevails there. No conjecture, no hypothesis required.

I have already explained many times that vaccines by themselves will not work. They can be part of an exit strategy centered around a reset lockdown, but by themselves, they are not a viable fast exit strategy. If we rely on the vaccines getting out of this, it will take several more years, and there are serious risks associated with some of the nextgen vaccines.
At this point, it's a ping pong of opinions.

Israel is vaccinating very quickly for sure.
Given that they were able to jab 12% of people in 2 weeks, surely they will reach herd immunity by March?
We'll see where they are in March and we can then discuss.
I anticipate that Israel will see a surge in the spring despite expected herd immunity, and then the vaccines will begin to be put in question.
The pharma will blame virus mutations and improper inoculations for the lower effectiveness of the virus, while all the rest will start to question the real-life effectiveness of these miracle vaccines.

flyguy89 wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

P S. Risk-assessment of the entire trip carried out in advance.
It's a bit spartan and full-on mania.
So yeah, those who can't produce this level of mania, which is most, should not travel.
Airline crews seem to appreciate (over)careful people.

You’re still putting yourself and others at elevated risk of transmission and spreading of the virus than you would otherwise even with your manic precautions and risk assessments, which is ironic given your supposed beliefs.

When you go out to buy groceries you are also putting yourself and others at elevated risk of transmission, probably more than when I and my OCD go on a trip.
If you are so anti-travel, why aren't you advocating for the grounding of all airlines as I have, or at least for advanced measures such as leaving middle seats empty?

Airlines and governments are facilitating and allowing these travels to take place. The way they are allowing to take place is also a true disgrace and totally irresponsible. Whether I travel or not is meaningless in the large scheme of things, so I suggest you to direct your discontent to them.

Jalap wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

If you think about it, it's insane the level of mismanagement at governmental level in this crisis.

It's far too easy to blame governments. Yes, errors were made and there will be more.
But it is't governments that are infecting people. It's the people doing it to themselves.
The primary measures are people should maintain physiscal distance, no indoor gatherings, ventilate spaces, respect quarantine, ... . And yes, no travel.

In most countries, people just aren't disciplined enought to do this. Or even opposed to following these measures.
It is only called selfishness or stupidity when we talk about others.

Who here on this forum can truely say they follow every single rule and recommendation? As for me, I don't meet with people, wear mask where obligatory, work home, keep distance, don't travel abroad. But I don't always desinfect my hands every time I go out and we sometimes have other kids in the house (and needless to say they don't keep distance with my kids). And I supported friends who didn't quarantine their daughter after travel because I knew they were in isolation during travel and because this girl is the favourite training-mate of my daughters in their sport (training under 13yo is allowed here).

In a totalitarian regime, all this can be enforced. But not in democratic countries.
Like I said earlier, this is the price we pay for freedom. Freedom brings crime, terrorism, reality-television. And now also a pandemic.

Most people follow most rules, but most people will also cut off some edges. You can focus on polititcians or on idiots you see here and there. But that's all pointless. In a free world, this virus will always win. Untill it starts to lose because of herd immunity or a vaccine.

In any case, I'm very happy to live in virus-infected Europe and not in virus-free China.

I agree with you 100%

I will give Australia and New Zealand credit for one things. Their politicians as far as I know were in it with their citizens and did what they could to support closed businesses and those unable to work. The NZ parliament took pay cuts and there was no real evidence of

Not sure about Europe but the US government is giving less than crumbs to their citizens which means that any lockdown efforts are going to have the side effect of food banks, evictions and increased crime which have all been seem in 2020. Canada is in a better place because our benefits to those whose business have shut down have been more generous. However the hypocrisy of many public health officials and politicians jet setting over the holidays while telling us to not see our families really put a dent in keeping the public on board for a lockdown that will probably persist until March at the earliest.

Jalap wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

If you think about it, it's insane the level of mismanagement at governmental level in this crisis.

It's far too easy to blame governments. Yes, errors were made and there will be more.
But it is't governments that are infecting people. It's the people doing it to themselves.
The primary measures are people should maintain physiscal distance, no indoor gatherings, ventilate spaces, respect quarantine, ... . And yes, no travel.

In most countries, people just aren't disciplined enought to do this. Or even opposed to following these measures.
It is only called selfishness or stupidity when we talk about others.

Who here on this forum can truely say they follow every single rule and recommendation? As for me, I don't meet with people, wear mask where obligatory, work home, keep distance, don't travel abroad. But I don't always desinfect my hands every time I go out and we sometimes have other kids in the house (and needless to say they don't keep distance with my kids). And I supported friends who didn't quarantine their daughter after travel because I knew they were in isolation during travel and because this girl is the favourite training-mate of my daughters in their sport (training under 13yo is allowed here).

In a totalitarian regime, all this can be enforced. But not in democratic countries.
Like I said earlier, this is the price we pay for freedom. Freedom brings crime, terrorism, reality-television. And now also a pandemic.
2
Most people follow most rules, but most people will also cut off some edges. You can focus on polititcians or on idiots you see here and there. But that's all pointless. In a free world, this virus will always win. Untill it starts to lose because of herd immunity or a vaccine.

In any case, I'm very happy to live in virus-infected Europe and not in virus-free China.

Unfortunately, our societies are indeed still very rudimental.
People need to be protected from themselves.
Protecting people from themselves can be done in many ways. Restricting freedoms is one way. That's why we have speed limits, DUI is outlawed, lockdowns etc...
But there are other ways too. Communication and education for instance.

Communications
One of the biggest failures are in terms of communications.
"Masks do not help." > "Masks don't protect you but protect others." > "Masks protect others more than they protect you."
Result: people don't want to wear masks or need to be incited to wear one.
How hard is it to run an hourly TV ad saying "Wear your mask as if your life depends on it, because it does. Masks protect you more than they protect others. Wear them."

Education
How about educating people about the different types of mask?
How is the virus transmitted?
How easy is it to transmit?
Why not send out weekly flyers through the postal services to explain again and again until people get it. Covid infomercials every hour.
Cartoons for the kids.


If communications and education would be done properly, you can already mount a very robust defense against this virus, without restricting freedoms.
Unfortunately, governments are communicating poorly and not even trying to educate people about Covid.
They are doing simplistic things (masks and distancing), doing it poorly and then going straight to restricting freedoms. But there again, not even the freedom restriction part, ie the lockdowns, are being done properly because they ease too soon and the virus surges back.

Government can be the solution but until now, most governments have been part of the problem, not the solution.
They are not even trying or it's like they are trying to make it as bad as possible.


So I disagree, you don't need to be a totalitarian regime to fight Covid.
As governments, you need to educate and communicate properly, and if despite your best efforts it doesn't work and you need to restrict freedoms, do it properly and only once to full completion.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I have already explained many times that vaccines by themselves will not work. They can be part of an exit strategy centered around a reset lockdown, but by themselves, they are not a viable fast exit strategy..

Indeed you have explained that vaccination on its own will not work. No evidence to support your view offered, whereas I cited the examples of smallpox eradication worldwide through vaccination including my source, And polio eradication in the US through vaccination including my source. No lockdowns involved. I don't understand why you keep saying things that do not tally with the facts.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Israel is vaccinating very quickly for sure.
Given that they were able to jab 12% of people in 2 weeks, surely they will reach herd immunity by March?
We'll see where they are in March and we can then discuss..

Indeed. Gesundheit!

PS I am not suggesting COVID-19 will be eliminated entirely through vaccination

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Unfortunately, our societies are indeed still very rudimental.
People need to be protected from themselves.
Protecting people from themselves can be done in many ways. Restricting freedoms is one way. That's why we have speed limits, DUI is outlawed, lockdowns etc...

Well I fully agree. To prevent car accidents, we have these restrictions on freedom. Yet there still are car accidents with countless injured and death. Not to mention pollution.
To really solve this, driving cars should be forbidden alltogether.

But that is (rightfully) unacceptible. Hence, we accept a situation where we search for a balance in our freedom of driving cars vs the lives they ruin. Again an example of a price we're prepared to pay for our freedom. And, as with covid measures, there are idiots that completely disrespect the restrictions, the majority that mostly follows them and a mintority that's 100% respecting them.
And as with covid, we're prepared to pay the price because the odds that you'll be a victim yourself are rather low. Most accidents, by far, happen without serious injuries. Most covid infections, by far, leave no lasting mark.

Your proposal to fight covid is similar to banning cars. Yes, a full lockdown would last for only about 6 months while cars should be banned forever to be a fully correct analogy. But even a reset-lockdown holds no guarantee that the virus won't be back.

People prefer to take the hit, they accept restrictions but no full ban on personal freedom. The economy also prefers this scenario (well, the economy would prefer a scenario without restrictions but fortunately that's off the table).

And as for communication and education, I really think most people by now know perfectly well what masks are for and how the virus spreads. People have done their risk assessment, they know what the restrictions are and they decide to ignore them, mosty follow them or fully follow them. People holding lockdown parties or going out while they should in quarantine need to be brought to justice. Employers who demand people who may be infected to come to work need to be brought to justice. Pretty much like we bring heavy traffic offenders to justice. But the rest can still enjoy what's left to be enjoyed. The virus won't completely go away, but it's a situation we find acceptible.

Of course, if your doom predictions of the vaccine were to become reality, then we'll need to talk again. I have enough trust in science to believe the vaccines will do what they promise to do.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

If you are so anti-travel, why aren't you advocating for the grounding of all airlines as I have, or at least for advanced measures such as leaving middle seats empty?

I am not, but you are, which is why you galavanting all over the world is so ironic and makes it hard to take your ideas seriously.

Will we start seeing a vaccine passport required for domestic travel? I hope we do see a vaccine passport for hotels and large events. The vaccine is our only hope to slow the spread long term and save lives. It would be great to see private business support a vaccine passport like they did with masks.

Pi7472000 wrote:

Will we start seeing a vaccine passport required for domestic travel? I hope we do see a vaccine passport for hotels and large events. The vaccine is our only hope to slow the spread long term and save lives. It would be great to see private business support a vaccine passport like they did with masks.

There is no evidence that the current vaccines will reduce the spread (sufficiently).
That was not part of the parameters measured in these vaccine trials.

In addition, I don't see many 60+ travelling nowadays and anyone below 60 is last in line for vaccines. To travel as a family, the entire family would also have to be vaccinated.
Moreover, many countries seem like they are going to vaccinate only the susceptible part of the population and then open up everything, hoping that the rest will get immunity through infection.
Vaccine passports are hence only useful once vaccines are abundant and reliably proven to stop or strongly reduce the transmission.


I think that a PCR test 48-72 hours before travel, a second high reliability rapid test (95+% accuracy) at the check-in counter before boarding and test kits aboard (in case a passenger shows symptoms like excessive coughing) combined with temperature checks are much more useful sorting tools at this stage.
So far, most countries are doing the PCR test requirement and temperature checks, so adding reliable rapid tests at the check-in counter would make it safe enough that transmission during and around flights will become a rare exception IMO.

Reliable rapid tests should also be taken at other venues such as restaurants, bars where masks are not worn, and as surveillance tools at schools and offices.

More info on rapid tests:
https://www.womenshealthmag.com/health/ ... apid-test/

If anything, a Covid testing passport is a much more reliable tool at this stage.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I think that a PCR test 48-72 hours before travel, a second high reliability quick test (95+% accuracy) at the check-in counter before boarding and test kits aboard (in case a passenger shows symptoms like excessive coughing) combined with temperature checks are much more useful sorting tools at this stage.
So far, most countries are doing the PCR test requirement and temperature checks, so adding reliable quick tests at the check-in counter would make it safe enough that transmission during flights will become a rare exception IMO.

I don't know about you but I have travelled to other countries many hundreds of times. I like the idea of turning up at an airport or port knowing that I can travel. If I was not sure I could until I turned up at the airport or port, travel would be far less practical. Give me the certainty of a vaccination certificate any time.

art wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I think that a PCR test 48-72 hours before travel, a second high reliability quick test (95+% accuracy) at the check-in counter before boarding and test kits aboard (in case a passenger shows symptoms like excessive coughing) combined with temperature checks are much more useful sorting tools at this stage.
So far, most countries are doing the PCR test requirement and temperature checks, so adding reliable quick tests at the check-in counter would make it safe enough that transmission during flights will become a rare exception IMO.

I don't know about you but I have travelled to other countries many hundreds of times. I like the idea of turning up at an airport or port knowing that I can travel. If I was not sure I could until I turned up at the airport or port, travel would be far less practical. Give me the certainty of a vaccination certificate any time.

I understand that, in one of the previous posts I have described how nerve-racking it is to wait for PCR test results, where you need to take it as close as possible to your departure but at the same time you are not sure that you will get your result on time for travel. The wait can drive you insane, I can tell you.
KLM will refuse boarding if you don't have the PCR test result required by the destination country.
When travelling in these times, I think that we should be fatalistic and be prepared to abandon travel if we test positive at some point. That's my mindset whenever I go for a swab and await the result.
It goes beyond that as you could fail temperature checks at any point on your itinerary, even if fever can happen for so many reasons unrelated to Covid.
So not only do you need to ensure that you don't catch Covid, you also need to watch out not to catch a harmless cold or something bacterial.

At this stage, a vaccine (if you can get one at all) potentially protects you from severe illness, but it does not protect others from being infected by you
This is not so much an issue for the actual people on the flights where everyone would be vaccinated. The issue is that the destination country (or state in case of domestic US flights) can not be certain that flights will not become mass-infection events where vaccinated individuals cross-infect, get off their flights with a Covid infection and spread it to unvaccinated people days after landing. We should also not forget that the vaccines are not 100% effective either and that reopening unrestricted travel based solely on vaccine passports creates a massive interface for infections and that at least 5% (if we believe the unrealistically high efficacy numbers) of vaccinated individuals will develop illness.
A vaccine passport would hence be an insufficient, unreliable and unnecessary (in the bureaucratic sense) measure.
IMO vaccine passports are one of those things that sound good but accomplish nothing.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

FGITD wrote:

Blah blah blah rules for thee not for me

Every post you advocate that the only way to stop this is by an impossibly full blown quarantine, no one leaving their home. And then you continually travel.

Hypocrites are the worst kinds

I'm advocating a reset lockdown, but until it happens, nothing is going to improve so I try to make the best out of the situation.
If and when the reset lockdown happens, I will of course be happy to stay put and be part of it.
But how long until they figure it out? Germany is already extending their semi-lockdown and tightening it up, a glimmer of hope but until our own General Charles de Gaulle comes along to take leadership, I don't see anything happening.

I'm doing my part in this too.
I wrote to governments and Mr. Fauci repeatedly. The cr*p I write is not only on airliners.net, it's also in those peoples' inboxes.
In public, I'm showing off my full face mask so that people start wondering if their thin surgical masks are enough to protect themselves.
At every opportunity, I try to educate people on distancing but also safe practices.

It is also very important for me to see what is going on during the pandemic.
What are other countries doing differently and how are they doing it?
How are persons behaving against Covid in different places?

Of course, you can also stay in your armchair, call people names and follow incompetent government guidelines, some insufficient, some unnecessary and ineffective.

My impression is the reset lockdown is in practice only giving a overrun health care system time to handle the situation.

In the Spring we had a few great examples like Australia, New Zeeland, Finland, Lithuania and special Czech republic was presented as the way to go.

Then we had a few like UK, Italy, Spain with full lockdowns but still got terrible numbers.

Brazil and USA did not have any strategy at all and some would say that Sweden belongs to this category.

My question is what did New Zeeland Czech republic, Lithuania do better then let say Brazil or Sweden? What does the great examples have in common?

olle wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

FGITD wrote:

Blah blah blah rules for thee not for me

Every post you advocate that the only way to stop this is by an impossibly full blown quarantine, no one leaving their home. And then you continually travel.

Hypocrites are the worst kinds

I'm advocating a reset lockdown, but until it happens, nothing is going to improve so I try to make the best out of the situation.
If and when the reset lockdown happens, I will of course be happy to stay put and be part of it.
But how long until they figure it out? Germany is already extending their semi-lockdown and tightening it up, a glimmer of hope but until our own General Charles de Gaulle comes along to take leadership, I don't see anything happening.

I'm doing my part in this too.
I wrote to governments and Mr. Fauci repeatedly. The cr*p I write is not only on airliners.net, it's also in those peoples' inboxes.
In public, I'm showing off my full face mask so that people start wondering if their thin surgical masks are enough to protect themselves.
At every opportunity, I try to educate people on distancing but also safe practices.

It is also very important for me to see what is going on during the pandemic.
What are other countries doing differently and how are they doing it?
How are persons behaving against Covid in different places?

Of course, you can also stay in your armchair, call people names and follow incompetent government guidelines, some insufficient, some unnecessary and ineffective.

My impression is the reset lockdown is in practice only giving a overrun health care system time to handle the situation.

In the Spring we had a few great examples like Australia, New Zeeland, Finland, Lithuania and special Czech republic was presented as the way to go.

Then we had a few like UK, Italy, Spain with full lockdowns but still got terrible numbers.

Brazil and USA did not have any strategy at all and some would say that Sweden belongs to this category.

My question is what did New Zeeland Czech republic, Lithuania do better then let say Brazil or Sweden? What does the great examples have in common?

The Czech Republic is performing very poorly so it can not be put in the same category as New Zealand.


New Zealand is the best student in the class and what they have done is act competently. Communication, Education, Restricting freedom but not in vain.
Early and total border closure, mandatory 14 day quarantine at government facilities under direct supervision, get local transmission to zero with a full lockdown and maintain it for several weeks to make sure it does not resurge while doing surveillance testing, then keep borders closed but reopen the economy with preventive measures (masks, social distancing, aggressive contact tracing)
Close schools except for children of essential workers.


The NZ PM announcing the first and only lockdown. A marvel of clear and unambiguous communication.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShWPNtell50

The NZ PM announcing the extension of the first and only lockdown.
"The longer we are in lockdown, the least likely it is we need to go back."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qPkWyZciGI

Every country needs to do this eventually.

The NZ PM deserves huge praise, she's the only one who acted competently.
The EU and US should be consulting with NZ on how to go ahead from here.

The whole point of lockdowns, mask wearing, and vaccination is to not-overwhelm the health care system. People finally need to stop moving the goal posts and stop fantasizing about "eradicating COVID first". It is not going to happen.
History has shown us that eradicating viruses takes decades (e.g. Smallpox, Polio, TB, etc.). Nobody in their right mind is going to wait for that. Sooner rather than later, life has to get back to normal, otherwise people will simply get fed up with it all and take matters in their own hands.

So the first step is to reduce the population of the US down to about half the size of New York City, and then put them all on a small, relatively self sufficient island.

Of course NZ did a great job. They have barely 5 million people and it's very easy to restrict travel.

As the population numbers go up, so too does the difficulty.

FGITD wrote:

So the first step is to reduce the population of the US down to about half the size of New York City, and then put them all on a small, relatively self sufficient island.

Of course NZ did a great job. They have barely 5 million people and it's very easy to restrict travel.

As the population numbers go up, so too does the difficulty.

I think what also helped was the fact (as I understand it) that the PM of New Zealand was actually an effective communicator and explained in details, what, why, and where. Not to mention that she herself strictly adhered to the rules and did not go off to birthday parties and weddings. It helps a lot if you are not a hypocrite.

Dieuwer wrote:

FGITD wrote:

So the first step is to reduce the population of the US down to about half the size of New York City, and then put them all on a small, relatively self sufficient island.

Of course NZ did a great job. They have barely 5 million people and it's very easy to restrict travel.

As the population numbers go up, so too does the difficulty.

I think what also helped was the fact (as I understand it) that the PM of New Zealand was actually an effective communicator and explained in details, what, why, and where. Not to mention that she herself strictly adhered to the rules and did not go off to birthday parties and weddings. It helps a lot if you are not a hypocrite.

A very valid point. I admire her leadership skills, and ability to control the situation. Rather than pretending it didn't exist or waste time trying to assign blame, she got right to business.

While that definitely played a substantial role, there's still no denying that size and geography also are significant

FGITD wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

FGITD wrote:

So the first step is to reduce the population of the US down to about half the size of New York City, and then put them all on a small, relatively self sufficient island.

Of course NZ did a great job. They have barely 5 million people and it's very easy to restrict travel.

As the population numbers go up, so too does the difficulty.

I think what also helped was the fact (as I understand it) that the PM of New Zealand was actually an effective communicator and explained in details, what, why, and where. Not to mention that she herself strictly adhered to the rules and did not go off to birthday parties and weddings. It helps a lot if you are not a hypocrite.

A very valid point. I admire her leadership skills, and ability to control the situation. Rather than pretending it didn't exist or waste time trying to assign blame, she got right to business.

While that definitely played a substantial role, there's still no denying that size and geography also are significant

I doubt that she would have done a worse job had she been the president of the USA.
This crisis has exposed which countries are banana republics and which countries have competent and serious governance.
I've never been to New Zealand but based on what I have seen during this crisis, I can't wait to visit it.

Countries like the US have clearly failed. Trump was a miserable failure but he was not alone in this. Most States regardless of political inclination have failed.
That exposes a core issue at societal level. A dysfunctional banana republic. A United States of Failure.
Europe hasn't been doing much better, nor have countries like Japan that are pretending that Covid doesn't exist by limiting testing.
These are all banana republics at the same level as Russia, China and most of Africa, if you ask me.

As with NZ, Australia's current Covid infections have been where the virus has passed via failures in quarantine processes. As the bulk of infected returning residents have come from the USA, this is the major strain in the community, with around 250 people nationally in the community in isolation.

However, Greater Brisbane (3m+ population) will enter a three day lockdown from tonight after two (yes two) quarantine staff have tested positive to the recent UK more virulent strain. These are the only idfentified Covid cases in that area outside quarantine. The aim of the Queensland Government is to hit hard and fast and eradicate before the virus gains a foothold in the community.

COVID cannot be eradicated by lockdowns. It already has been proven beyond doubt that animals can be COVID vessels. Even if humans no longer have it, COVID can easily transfer from animal to human.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ic/617476/

Dieuwer wrote:

COVID cannot be eradicated by lockdowns. It already has been proven beyond doubt that animals can be COVID vessels. Even if humans no longer have it, COVID can easily transfer from animal to human.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ic/617476/

Both New Zealand and Australia have eliminated local transmission of the virus several times now.
Because no country can function with totally closed borders, and NZ and Australia, also consider themselves obliged to allow their nationals to return, there is continuing, but restricted entry into both countries. A portion of these people are infected prior to arrival into the country. There is also interaction at the borders with aircrew and ships crew as goods are imported and exported.
That is why both Australia and NZ maintain border managed isolation and quarantine facilities which collectively are detecting several cases per day within these facilities. In NZ only about 40% of our total infections have occurred onshore. And 91000 people have passed through our managed isolation facilities. But people within these facilities need catering and caring for, and in some cases acute medical care needs providing.
So there is always some interface between infected people, at the border facilities, those entering the country, and those required to cater for them
In spite of best, and always improving testing and isolation methods, the sheer volume of these interfaces means some breakouts are inevitable.
It is then the secondary control methods come into play, imposition of social distancing and travel restrictions, mandated by lockdowns, if considered necessary, widespread testing, and capable tracking systems. While inconvenient, and at times brutal, the successful implementation of such measures has meant, that for the vast majority of us living here, the vast majority of us have spent almost all of the last year suffering only mild inconvenience over pre covid conditions. Can you say the same about your community, at the moment and over the last year?

Just been listening to the mayor of London. He said he would like vaccination to be effected 24 hours a day. I don't see why that should not happen, do you?

He also said that in parts of London 1 in 20 have got it.