cpd wrote:Waterbomber2 wrote:Jalap wrote:Yet there are very few examples of true succes for this strategy.
Unless in totalitarian countries (China) or isolated countries (New Zealand).
Ireland had a very strict lockdown in October/November. Very little virus left at the end. Now beginning of January and they have record high numbers of infections again.
Unless if you truely get to zero, total lockdowns only create a pendulum where you'll have wave after wave. Since 6 months of total lockdown Chinese style is impossible in the West, a continuous semi-lockdown is the only realistic approach. This is the price we pay for freedom.
Ireland was not even close to zero new cases when they eased their October lockdown in December and the current surge happened soon after that easing.
What you are showing is a textbook example of reopening too soon.
Lockdown to zero cases means literally zero cases.
Not 1000 per day, not 500 per day, not even 10 per day.
Get the case count to zero per day and maintain it for 3-4 weeks and then you can reopen domestically.
That's what New Zealand did.
What Ireland did is the same mistakes that have been repeated so many times now by EU countries.
Cases go down, then they reopen too soon. Cases surge again. Close everything up.
The cumulative effects of repeated lockdowns are worse than a single proper longer lockdown.
Coronavirus: Republic of Ireland to move to highest restrictions
Published 19 October 2020
Coronavirus: Ireland's shops reopen as restrictions eased
Published 1 December 2020
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/ireland/
Stop saying that a reset lockdown to zero would not work, citing the examples that are doing it wrong.
It's our only way out and it's not an eternal option.
Problem is that countries will reopen borders with others that haven’t had these stringent lockdown measures, or the fringe loonies in a country will do their best to get infected and spread the virus as far and as quickly as they can.
This morning I’m waiting to get a quick takeaway breakfast and wearing a mask as required by law, while the lady also waiting nearby doesn’t even wear a mask. Unfortunately no police were around to fine her $215.
It should be a $2150 fine really! Hit them hard if they want to be irresponsible and ruin it for everyone.
It should be the Indonesian system of being assigned grave digging detail if defying mask guidelines.