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StarAC17
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:45 pm

UPlog wrote:
24 out of 50 U.S. states seeing 7-day case rates rise.

Like Europe are we on the cusp of another wave, as punishment for reopening too soon?

Image

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ExXi9b7VIAM ... =4096x4096


Another wave is inevitable if Covid exists in the community as people go to work and interact it will find a way to spread.

All lockdowns do is buy time for the ICU capacity and hospitals to clear capacity so they don't become overwhelmed. There is an argument that we opened with a fairly low level of community transmission but not enough hospital capacity to spare that ICU's will quickly become overwhelmed.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sat Mar 27, 2021 3:15 am

UPlog wrote:
24 out of 50 U.S. states seeing 7-day case rates rise.


How high can it go this time? There is too much seroprevalence and the vaccines are coming.
 
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mercure1
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sat Mar 27, 2021 3:16 am

Yes just like Europe, the USA likely to see a 4th wave. Per BBC says US case counts up 7% in the last week.

Its too bad infection control methods were not maintainted until nations reach the 70-80% vaccination rates before opening up. The rush to open up simply creates a yo-yo fluctuation with infections, hospitalization, and deaths following. Sad really.
 
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par13del
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sat Mar 27, 2021 3:50 am

mercure1 wrote:
Yes just like Europe, the USA likely to see a 4th wave. Per BBC says US case counts up 7% in the last week.

Its too bad infection control methods were not maintainted until nations reach the 70-80% vaccination rates before opening up. The rush to open up simply creates a yo-yo fluctuation with infections, hospitalization, and deaths following. Sad really.

Society today cannot sustain lockdowns for too long, at least the societies that are built on personal freedoms, look at the numbers who were fleeing Paris when the last lockdown was announced, any bets that infected persons were leaving as well?
In dictatorial societies lockdowns are acceptable, also in conformist societies, other places folks eventually give up, and since all are not affected equally, it creates a rift within society, it where science has to meet common sense.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sat Mar 27, 2021 4:00 pm

mercure1 wrote:
Yes just like Europe, the USA likely to see a 4th wave. Per BBC says US case counts up 7% in the last week.

Its too bad infection control methods were not maintainted until nations reach the 70-80% vaccination rates before opening up. The rush to open up simply creates a yo-yo fluctuation with infections, hospitalization, and deaths following. Sad really.

We can agree on this. The problem is the lockdowns are creating depression, permanent job loss (we will restart from a lower floor economically), and the one size fits all makes no sense. There is no reason a small city should lock down like Paris, New York, Los Angeles, or London. Sadly, I do not think Mexico City nor San Palo Brazil can afford the same level of lockdown as a US, UK, or EU can (e.g., generosity of unemployment). Most of my small business owning friends are on the brink. Some must decide retire now or keep the business going in hopes of a recovery. Another lockdown makes that choice easy (layoff everyone permanently, declare bankruptcy for the business to preserve their retirement). In fact, several are withdrawing retirement funds on the hope there are no more lockdowns to save their business (stupid as our 401k retirement funds are legally firewalled from a business bankruptcy).

The USA is at the start with Michigan and New Jersey being the canary in the coal mine:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ew-jersey/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/michigan/

But one size doesn't fit all. UV is a great virus killer. States in the Sunbelt, in particularly away from dense urban centers will have a different spring/summer than the northernmost parts of the US.
Please compare Italy versus say Sweeden last summer. I believe Longitude (UV intensity) plays a role in suppressing the virus during the hemisphere's summer. Although the new variants seem to be so contagious they are breaking the seasonal variation and I might have to change my opinion if new data keeps coming in on the current trends, in particular India and Brazil:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/india/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/brazil/

On a different topic, but vaccine related, I missed the B.1.220 and B.1.526 (both first found in New York, but who knows where they came from, 2nd in 2nd link below) variant is a E484K mutation too. :hissyfit:
Doesn't this dang virus understand I set reasonable, quantifiable criteria where I get to go out and socialize like in my university days? Dangnabit. New information is ruining my dream of being a well socially lubricated imbecile. :duck:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... -York.aspx

I always made it clear six weeks after vaccines were commonly available. What I didn't say is that gives me time to analyze data and determine if my plan was wise or stupid. Sigh...

At least the bad (locally) B.1.427 and B.1.429 do not contain the E484K spike variation.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 884525002/

Although as the Brazil variant was identified in Japan, I'm not liking regional finger pointing (as the two Cali Variants seem to be nasty the B.1.427/429, albeit without the spike mutations of the E484K variants).

So we'll be in this a while.
We must get vaccinated and get a booster.

Lightsaber
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sat Mar 27, 2021 5:50 pm

I suspect that getting fully vaccinated with whatever vaccine is approved is critical. Thus far I think most vaccines prevent hospitalization and death from the variants (?). Boosters will definitely be in order but not critically so. And here's hoping that any booster will do the job, mixing may be OK at that point.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sat Mar 27, 2021 6:48 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I suspect that getting fully vaccinated with whatever vaccine is approved is critical. Thus far I think most vaccines prevent hospitalization and death from the variants (?). Boosters will definitely be in order but not critically so. And here's hoping that any booster will do the job, mixing may be OK at that point.

My understanding is most vaccines will still provide some protections against variant, but at a reduced rate.
 
CometII
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sat Mar 27, 2021 11:06 pm

Why have we not heard for months on end now, anything in the media, in the policy making, and even in forums like this one, anything about post-infection, non-vaccine drugs or therapeutic development? I think the goal in the end has moved, the disease is and will remain endemic. The key is bring both the death rate and severe hospitalization rate down to a level that is tolerable both from an economic and public relations point of view. Has science given up on this track? Will it be just like the common cold, basically untreatable except for mom's chicken soup (except for more severe)?
 
flyguy89
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sun Mar 28, 2021 4:25 am

CometII wrote:
Why have we not heard for months on end now, anything in the media, in the policy making, and even in forums like this one, anything about post-infection, non-vaccine drugs or therapeutic development? I think the goal in the end has moved, the disease is and will remain endemic. The key is bring both the death rate and severe hospitalization rate down to a level that is tolerable both from an economic and public relations point of view. Has science given up on this track? Will it be just like the common cold, basically untreatable except for mom's chicken soup (except for more severe)?

I think once the more pressing issue with COVID-19 is addressed (potential to overwhelm healthcare systems) we’ll see more of a pivot and emphasis on therapeutics and treatments, especially as more is learned about the virus.
 
Gavros33
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sun Mar 28, 2021 5:52 am

CometII wrote:
Why have we not heard for months on end now, anything in the media, in the policy making, and even in forums like this one, anything about post-infection, non-vaccine drugs or therapeutic development? I think the goal in the end has moved, the disease is and will remain endemic. The key is bring both the death rate and severe hospitalization rate down to a level that is tolerable both from an economic and public relations point of view. Has science given up on this track? Will it be just like the common cold, basically untreatable except for mom's chicken soup (except for more severe)?


There is a very promising therapeutic / treatment currently in late stage testing at the Leiden University in the Netherlands. The drug is Monepantel by a company called Pharmaust. So far showing 95% efficacy and the bonus is that it's administered in tablet form. No need for intravenous delivery. Let's hope that this and / or other therapeutics become commercialized as it would assist with the vaccines, especially in poorer and more remote nations.
However no word of this on the media as of yet, seems to be vaccines and vaccines only.
 
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c933103
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:34 am

CometII wrote:
Why have we not heard for months on end now, anything in the media, in the policy making, and even in forums like this one, anything about post-infection, non-vaccine drugs or therapeutic development?

Pfizer just said some days ago that they're making one
 
bennett123
Posts: 10866
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:42 am

Posted at 11:0511:05
Vaccine passports are short-term tool - Culture Secretary
A worker serves a beer at The Holland pub in Tringham, in July 2020
ReutersCopyright: Reuters
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has insisted vaccine passports will not be introduced on a "permanent basis".

"Of course we would never look to do this on a permanent basis, it's just whether it might be a tool in the short-term," he told the Andrew Marr Show on the BBC.

He stressed no decisions had yet been made on Covid certification, but "it's important to examine it".

Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said vaccine passports were something that needed to be considered.

"It's certainly something we have to consider seriously, as part of a wider package of measures that are designed to make our activities safe," he told Andrew Marr.

"Over the last year, when we have tried to make ourselves safe, we have tended to do this by stopping activities," he said, referring to the lockdown measures

"Part of the point of living with this virus, is we have to switch emphasis," said Prof Woolhouse.

Article share tools

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56554227

Looking at the comments by Oliver Dowden, I do not expect vaccination passports to happen in the UK.

By the time they finish reviewing, examining and otherwise phaffing about, the COVID pandemic will be a distant memory.

You may find this interesting.

https://www.markpack.org.uk/166497/the- ... ronavirus/
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Sun Mar 28, 2021 4:44 pm

The excess death trend continues to be good. Now, the latest two bars will be revised upwards (quite a bit some times), but overall, the trend is excellent:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

We are now definitely below season averages for deaths in the USA.

This is a mixture of (in order of effects):
1. Minimum between waves (sadly, E484K variants are present in the USA, including B.1.220 which were first discovered in the USA. Plus the ones the media hypes (P.1. in Brazil, B.1.351 from South Africa)
2. Slow disease, takes weeks between behavior and spread
3. Vaccination, in particular of elderly.
4. Vulnerable died early. :cry2: (This is just my opinion.)

On E484K variant in US:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... -York.aspx
On vaccination rate:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Lightsaber
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:41 am

China ruled out a lab accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology before a WHO-led team arrived in China to look into how and where the COVID-19 virus originated. The team found that the virus most likely spread from wildlife farms to a Wuhan wet market.

60 Minutes
https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/13 ... 69924?s=20
 
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c933103
Posts: 5725
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:10 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
China ruled out a lab accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology before a WHO-led team arrived in China to look into how and where the COVID-19 virus originated. The team found that the virus most likely spread from wildlife farms to a Wuhan wet market.

60 Minutes
https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/13 ... 69924?s=20

https://www.voachinese.com/a/China-outl ... 29918.html
The WHO-led team's finding was announced by China before WHO
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:33 pm

Paris is about to go into triage:
https://chicago.suntimes.com/platform/a ... ty-doctors

Normally, triage is what care do you need. When hospitals are overwhelmed, people must be denied care.

For example, in January, my uncle Tom needed an ICU, instead he was sent home as he would consume too many resources. He was sent home with oxygen and Medicine, my cousin and later his wife did a heroic effort and saved him. I assumed he would die, but we are a tough lot.

Right now the hospitals, knowing how my doctor friends work, would try to stabilize as many young as possible in the ambulances and take them right back home. Now, that is my best guess. Quite a few will never leave the ER as beds are full. Get them on a recovery path and discharge as beds are dear.

The issue is when two must have a bed and you must kick people out of beds.

This means an end to the declining deaths. Sad. Hospitalizations trail initial infections by two weeks in my opinion and estimation. Death is 4 to 6 weeks later, from what I can chart read.

Rhoo Rhoo...
 
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readytotaxi
Posts: 8093
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:46 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56494521

London has reported zero deaths in the last 24hrs, the city accounts for 12% of all UK coronavirus deaths.
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:08 am

Wisconsin is the latest state to do away with its mask law. The Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down the Governor's statewide mask mandate stating he does not have the authority to unilaterally issue multiple emergency orders and extend the mandate for months.
 
Zeppi
Posts: 156
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:06 am

DocLightning wrote:
How high can it go this time? There is too much seroprevalence and the vaccines are coming.


SARS-CoV-2 wrote:
Hold my beer...


Just look at what's going on in Manaus: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.25.21254281v1
With around 75% of the population infected in the first wave it was widely assumed that a natural herd immunity ought to be established. Except it wasn't and people are dying again in scores with P.1 reinfections. Same goes for wide parts of southern Africa, India and Europe.
In Germany numbers are also rising rapidly again, medical staff say we need another hard lockdown of at least two weeks to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, like is currently already happening in parts of France.
What's also notable is that now younger people are being hit much harder, even school kids. This is far from over I fear, even with the vaccines. We'll always be one step behind this virus playing catchup.
 
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SQ22
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Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q1 2021

Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:08 pm

Please continue your discussion and to post your news here:

COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

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