Yes just like Europe, the USA likely to see a 4th wave. Per BBC says US case counts up 7% in the last week.
Its too bad infection control methods were not maintainted until nations reach the 70-80% vaccination rates before opening up. The rush to open up simply creates a yo-yo fluctuation with infections, hospitalization, and deaths following. Sad really.
We can agree on this. The problem is the lockdowns are creating depression, permanent job loss (we will restart from a lower floor economically), and the one size fits all makes no sense. There is no reason a small city should lock down like Paris, New York, Los Angeles, or London. Sadly, I do not think Mexico City nor San Palo Brazil can afford the same level of lockdown as a US, UK, or EU can (e.g., generosity of unemployment). Most of my small business owning friends are on the brink. Some must decide retire now or keep the business going in hopes of a recovery. Another lockdown makes that choice easy (layoff everyone permanently, declare bankruptcy for the business to preserve their retirement). In fact, several are withdrawing retirement funds on the hope there are no more lockdowns to save their business (stupid as our 401k retirement funds are legally firewalled from a business bankruptcy).
The USA is at the start with Michigan and New Jersey being the canary in the coal mine:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ew-jersey/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/michigan/
But one size doesn't fit all. UV is a great virus killer. States in the Sunbelt, in particularly away from dense urban centers will have a different spring/summer than the northernmost parts of the US.
Please compare Italy versus say Sweeden last summer. I believe Longitude (UV intensity) plays a role in suppressing the virus during the hemisphere's summer. Although the new variants seem to be so contagious they are breaking the seasonal variation and I might have to change my opinion if new data keeps coming in on the current trends, in particular India and Brazil: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/india/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/brazil/
On a different topic, but vaccine related, I missed the B.1.220 and B.1.526 (both first found in New York, but who knows where they came from, 2nd in 2nd link below) variant is a E484K mutation too.
Doesn't this dang virus understand I set reasonable, quantifiable criteria where I get to go out and socialize like in my university days? Dangnabit. New information is ruining my dream of being a well socially lubricated imbecile. https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210 ... -York.aspx
I always made it clear six weeks after vaccines were commonly available. What I didn't say is that gives me time to analyze data and determine if my plan was wise or stupid. Sigh...
At least the bad (locally) B.1.427 and B.1.429 do not contain the E484K spike variation. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 884525002/
Although as the Brazil variant was identified in Japan, I'm not liking regional finger pointing (as the two Cali Variants seem to be nasty the B.1.427/429, albeit without the spike mutations of the E484K variants).
So we'll be in this a while.
We must get vaccinated and get a booster.