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https://nationalpost.com/opinion/letter ... esignation

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ ... -1.5858285

The finance minister of Ontario resigned today after he went to St. Barts on December 13th. The entire province is under at minimum a 2 week lockdown which started December 26th.

What is particular agregious about this isn't just the hypocrisy but his Twitter had pre recorded videos telling us to stay home recorded before he left.

Good riddance!!

We have COVID cases now in my area. It’s sheer luck I avoided the places where it was transferred.

South Africa's daily positive test rate is rocketing. 7 day moving average has risen about fourfold since the beginning of December. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... th-africa/

UK's daily positive test rate is rocketing. 7 day moving average has risen about fourfold since the beginning of December. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ok/

If these rises are due to more transmissable variants of the virus evolving, things look like they will get a lot worse before they get better. Is there anything decisive that governments will do to try to counter this rapid deterioration in the situation?

art wrote:

South Africa's daily positive test rate is rocketing. 7 day moving average has risen about fourfold since the beginning of December. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... th-africa/

UK's daily positive test rate is rocketing. 7 day moving average has risen about fourfold since the beginning of December. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ok/

If these rises are due to more transmissable variants of the virus evolving, things look like they will get a lot worse before they get better. Is there anything decisive that governments will do to try to counter this rapid deterioration in the situation?

Did the UK allow schools to open? Because that would have been the stupidest thing to do. Kids may not be as susceptible to COVID-19, but they are super spreaders: coughing without a hand for their mouths, touching every surface that can be touched, difficulty maintaining social distance, etc.

Dieuwer wrote:

art wrote:

South Africa's daily positive test rate is rocketing. 7 day moving average has risen about fourfold since the beginning of December. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... th-africa/

UK's daily positive test rate is rocketing. 7 day moving average has risen about fourfold since the beginning of December. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ok/

If these rises are due to more transmissable variants of the virus evolving, things look like they will get a lot worse before they get better. Is there anything decisive that governments will do to try to counter this rapid deterioration in the situation?

Did the UK allow schools to open? Because that would have been the stupidest thing to do. Kids may not be as susceptible to COVID-19, but they are super spreaders: coughing without a hand for their mouths, touching every surface that can be touched, difficulty maintaining social distance, etc.

The evidence for schools being a significant driver of spread is scant. We can't just stop educating our kids.

flyguy89 wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

art wrote:

South Africa's daily positive test rate is rocketing. 7 day moving average has risen about fourfold since the beginning of December. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... th-africa/

UK's daily positive test rate is rocketing. 7 day moving average has risen about fourfold since the beginning of December. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ok/

If these rises are due to more transmissable variants of the virus evolving, things look like they will get a lot worse before they get better. Is there anything decisive that governments will do to try to counter this rapid deterioration in the situation?

Did the UK allow schools to open? Because that would have been the stupidest thing to do. Kids may not be as susceptible to COVID-19, but they are super spreaders: coughing without a hand for their mouths, touching every surface that can be touched, difficulty maintaining social distance, etc.

The evidence for schools being a significant driver of spread is scant. We can't just stop educating our kids.

You don't need evidence to apply common sense. Do you deny kids behave as I have written?
Either way, I just found EVIDENCE that kids ARE in fact superspreaders:

"Children’s role in spread of virus bigger than thought"

The researchers note that although children with COVID-19 are not as likely to become as seriously ill as adults, as asymptomatic carriers or carriers with few symptoms attending school, they can spread infection and bring the virus into their homes.

...this finding suggests that children can carry a high viral load, meaning they are more contagious, regardless of their susceptibility to developing COVID-19 infection.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... ars-cov-2/

"Largest COVID-19 contact tracing study to date finds children key to spread, evidence of superspreaders"

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/ ... d-evidence

Dieuwer wrote:

art wrote:

South Africa's daily positive test rate is rocketing. 7 day moving average has risen about fourfold since the beginning of December. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... th-africa/

UK's daily positive test rate is rocketing. 7 day moving average has risen about fourfold since the beginning of December. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ok/

If these rises are due to more transmissable variants of the virus evolving, things look like they will get a lot worse before they get better. Is there anything decisive that governments will do to try to counter this rapid deterioration in the situation?

Did the UK allow schools to open? Because that would have been the stupidest thing to do. Kids may not be as susceptible to COVID-19, but they are super spreaders: coughing without a hand for their mouths, touching every surface that can be touched, difficulty maintaining social distance, etc.

In the last hour BBC has reported that plans to re-open primary schools have been changed, so you could say that the government is acting to eliminate the risk of young schoolchildren spreading the virus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55511169

I am not sure of the status of secondary schools or universities but I would be inclined to stop people attending those institutions, too.

Edit: the primary school closure may only apply to London

Perhaps to clarify, I am not singling out young children. It goes for all people 3 - 18 years. In fact, the people I see in my local neighborhood NOT wearing masks are usually teenagers (15-18 yo) who hang around on bikes having nothing better to do.

Dieuwer wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

Did the UK allow schools to open? Because that would have been the stupidest thing to do. Kids may not be as susceptible to COVID-19, but they are super spreaders: coughing without a hand for their mouths, touching every surface that can be touched, difficulty maintaining social distance, etc.

The evidence for schools being a significant driver of spread is scant. We can't just stop educating our kids.

You don't need evidence to apply common sense. Do you deny kids behave as I have written?
Either way, I just found EVIDENCE that kids ARE in fact superspreaders:

"Children’s role in spread of virus bigger than thought"

The researchers note that although children with COVID-19 are not as likely to become as seriously ill as adults, as asymptomatic carriers or carriers with few symptoms attending school, they can spread infection and bring the virus into their homes.

...this finding suggests that children can carry a high viral load, meaning they are more contagious, regardless of their susceptibility to developing COVID-19 infection.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... ars-cov-2/

"Largest COVID-19 contact tracing study to date finds children key to spread, evidence of superspreaders"

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/ ... d-evidence

And plenty of competing evidence showing the opposite:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/heal ... ldren.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... oronavirus

https://ctexaminer.com/2020/12/27/epide ... nnecticut/

flyguy89 wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

The evidence for schools being a significant driver of spread is scant. We can't just stop educating our kids.

You don't need evidence to apply common sense. Do you deny kids behave as I have written?
Either way, I just found EVIDENCE that kids ARE in fact superspreaders:

"Children’s role in spread of virus bigger than thought"

The researchers note that although children with COVID-19 are not as likely to become as seriously ill as adults, as asymptomatic carriers or carriers with few symptoms attending school, they can spread infection and bring the virus into their homes.

...this finding suggests that children can carry a high viral load, meaning they are more contagious, regardless of their susceptibility to developing COVID-19 infection.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... ars-cov-2/

"Largest COVID-19 contact tracing study to date finds children key to spread, evidence of superspreaders"

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/ ... d-evidence

And plenty of competing evidence showing the opposite:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/heal ... ldren.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... oronavirus

https://ctexaminer.com/2020/12/27/epide ... nnecticut/

NYT "study" is just the opinion of a doctor. No study.
The Google search is about Iceland which is an island and closed society. COVID prevalence is low. Study means nothing for mainland US, Europe.
The Examiner postulates that spread is higher among private settings, but does not deny schools play a role in the spread.

Therefore, my point stands: OPENING SCHOOLS AND CHILDREN DO CONTRIBUTE (SIGNIFICANTLY) TO COVID-19 SPREAD.

Dieuwer wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

You don't need evidence to apply common sense. Do you deny kids behave as I have written?
Either way, I just found EVIDENCE that kids ARE in fact superspreaders:

"Children’s role in spread of virus bigger than thought"





https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... ars-cov-2/

"Largest COVID-19 contact tracing study to date finds children key to spread, evidence of superspreaders"

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/ ... d-evidence

And plenty of competing evidence showing the opposite:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/heal ... ldren.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... oronavirus

https://ctexaminer.com/2020/12/27/epide ... nnecticut/

NYT "study" is just the opinion of a doctor. No study.
The Google search is about Iceland which is an island and closed society. COVID prevalence is low. Study means nothing for mainland US, Europe.
The Examiner postulates that spread is higher among private settings, but does not deny schools play a role in the spread.

Therefore, my point stands: OPENING SCHOOLS AND CHILDREN DO CONTRIBUTE (SIGNIFICANTLY) TO COVID-19 SPREAD.

Nice try, but no. The thrust of evidence doesn't bear that out, and the importance of schooling children is paramount which is why reputable sources from the WHO to Fauci claim schools should remain open to the greatest extent possible.

flyguy89 wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

And plenty of competing evidence showing the opposite:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/heal ... ldren.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nation ... oronavirus

https://ctexaminer.com/2020/12/27/epide ... nnecticut/

NYT "study" is just the opinion of a doctor. No study.
The Google search is about Iceland which is an island and closed society. COVID prevalence is low. Study means nothing for mainland US, Europe.
The Examiner postulates that spread is higher among private settings, but does not deny schools play a role in the spread.

Therefore, my point stands: OPENING SCHOOLS AND CHILDREN DO CONTRIBUTE (SIGNIFICANTLY) TO COVID-19 SPREAD.

Nice try, but no. The thrust of evidence doesn't bear that out, and the importance of schooling children is paramount which is why reputable sources from the WHO to Fauci claim schools should remain open to the greatest extent possible.

So. let's imagine that school and college students were held to be responsible for

30% of transmission / 50% of transmission / 70% of transmission / 90% of transmission

At what point would education cease to be more important than reducing the prevalence of COVID-19 fuelled by students infecting each other then spreading it to others?

art wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

NYT "study" is just the opinion of a doctor. No study.
The Google search is about Iceland which is an island and closed society. COVID prevalence is low. Study means nothing for mainland US, Europe.
The Examiner postulates that spread is higher among private settings, but does not deny schools play a role in the spread.

Therefore, my point stands: OPENING SCHOOLS AND CHILDREN DO CONTRIBUTE (SIGNIFICANTLY) TO COVID-19 SPREAD.

Nice try, but no. The thrust of evidence doesn't bear that out, and the importance of schooling children is paramount which is why reputable sources from the WHO to Fauci claim schools should remain open to the greatest extent possible.

So. let's imagine that school and college students were held to be responsible for

30% of transmission / 50% of transmission / 70% of transmission / 90% of transmission

At what point would education cease to be more important than reducing the prevalence of COVID-19 fuelled by students infecting each other then spreading it to others?

Very hard to say considering the consequences of disrupting education are delayed and varied. But we've seen evidence only continue to grow that younger children (day cares, elementary schools, etc) have seen only limited spread. And considering those age groups are the most vulnerable when it comes to trying remote learning, we should thus prioritize keeping them open as best we can.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3

Regardless wether children are or are not “super spreaders”, sitting in a (class)room on top of each other with dozens or more is not conducive to counter the spread of COVID-19.
At a minimum , there should be 100% adherence to mask wearing for EVERYBODY, and sit as far apart as possible. There should be one way routes in and out of the school, regular hand washing, etc.

Not surprised that most blame young people/business people “drinking in close quarters” for COVID outbreaks. After all, a politician can get away with that easily, while rightfully pointing the finger to larger gatherings like schools will get them the wrath of parents and teacher unions.

As long as people refuse to apply common sense and seek remedies in virtue signaling bans like those on travel, the pandemic will get worse.

Yes, 100% mask compliance would help the most I presume. Unfortunately, it seems we are reaching “pandemic fatigue “ where people no longer care. I posted about this in the vaccine thread.

I cancelled my Christmas and New Years trip because I decided that it just wasn’t a good idea considering the worsening pandemic. That said, my own patience it getting extremely thin.
It is one thing to keep indoors and postpone travel for a couple of months or perhaps a year, but eventually there comes a time that “enough is enough”. And I think that time is sometime in 2021.

Dieuwer wrote:

Not surprised that most blame young people/business people “drinking in close quarters” for COVID outbreaks. After all, a politician can get away with that easily, while rightfully pointing the finger to larger gatherings like schools will get them the wrath of parents and teacher unions.

As long as people refuse to apply common sense and seek remedies in virtue signaling bans like those on travel, the pandemic will get worse.

What we are doing is prolonging this pandemic and the vaccine is the endgame that will get us to herd immunity. Social distancing is the plug on the dam and that is always what it was sold as. The Canadian federal government said this in April that a vaccine is the only way this ends while not killing tens of millions.
Eventually without a treatment or a vaccine that water in that reservoir will get out and all we are doing is slowing down the flow rate.

We all ridicule Waterbomer2 but he isn't wrong is that a Covid 0 strategy would probably be best suited if it stood a chance at success. However it only works on a local level not a global one and with areas with vast freedom of movement its is only going to slow the flow on those infected. This virus has shown it can hide so well and its getting better at it as it evolves into a human virus.

Dieuwer wrote:

I cancelled my Christmas and New Years trip because I decided that it just wasn’t a good idea considering the worsening pandemic. That said, my own patience it getting extremely thin.
It is one thing to keep indoors and postpone travel for a couple of months or perhaps a year, but eventually there comes a time that “enough is enough”. And I think that time is sometime in 2021.

They have until September.

More than likely this winter is going to be rough and filled with tragedy and come spring there will be a natural dropoff as the virus is pretty seasonal in the most populated places as least in temperate climates.

Like in 2020 there will be a break from June to September. By then 70 to 80% of people need to be vaccinated and if there is a spike in the fall on 2021 and into 2022 and the governments try lockdowns again. Then you will have civil unrest and covid will be the least of everyone's worries.

Dieuwer wrote:

I cancelled my Christmas and New Years trip because I decided that it just wasn’t a good idea considering the worsening pandemic. That said, my own patience it getting extremely thin.
It is one thing to keep indoors and postpone travel for a couple of months or perhaps a year, but eventually there comes a time that “enough is enough”. And I think that time is sometime in 2021.

Well, if the 3 vaccines in use (not including Russiian and Chinese ones) can be produced in volume. mass vaccination is not far away. And if other vaccine trials conclude successfully, more and more vaccine will become available. Since I am in the UK where the government ordered 100 million AstraZeneca doses, 40 million from Pfizer and 7? million from Moderna, I am optimistic that the incidence of infection here will be reduced dramatically in Q2 2021 and that current restrictions will be relaxed as the infection rate falls.

art wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

Dieuwer wrote:

NYT "study" is just the opinion of a doctor. No study.
The Google search is about Iceland which is an island and closed society. COVID prevalence is low. Study means nothing for mainland US, Europe.
The Examiner postulates that spread is higher among private settings, but does not deny schools play a role in the spread.

Therefore, my point stands: OPENING SCHOOLS AND CHILDREN DO CONTRIBUTE (SIGNIFICANTLY) TO COVID-19 SPREAD.

Nice try, but no. The thrust of evidence doesn't bear that out, and the importance of schooling children is paramount which is why reputable sources from the WHO to Fauci claim schools should remain open to the greatest extent possible.

So. let's imagine that school and college students were held to be responsible for

30% of transmission / 50% of transmission / 70% of transmission / 90% of transmission

At what point would education cease to be more important than reducing the prevalence of COVID-19 fuelled by students infecting each other then spreading it to others?

The first point that I would like to make is that if we look at how school educated world leaders are botching the pandemic response, it is evidence enough that education can only do so much.
Among the failures: failures to close borders soon enough to stop the virus at the borders, failure to communicate properly and educate populations on avoiding transmission, reopening too soon resulting in a surge in the winter, etc...
The question I ask myself is what have they even done right so far?
Haven't they been paying attention during biology class?

Education is important, but bringing back the societies to a normal working order is the first priority IMO.
For instance, kids in their last year of school now have no prospects of entering the working society. If this lasts, we are going to affect one graduation class after the other, year after year.
If regular school lasts 12 years, each class that is launched in a jobless society represents 8.5% of the whole education system.
That becomes a true issue as it affects their earning power right from the start.

Having moved around the world as a kid, at 11 years old I was dropped off at a school of a new country with a totally different culture and language, and had to try to catch up with the kids my age. It took me one year to get comfortable. Kids are sponges and any delay can be made up pretty quickly. It's not easy but it can be done.

Keeping schools open will only drag out the pandemic and make it worse.
Seating children in closed quarters with surgical masks that only have 50-60% filtration efficiency if worn properly results in vectors of transmissions between households.
The kids may not look like they are infected, but then someday suddenly mom, dad or nana may start to feel ill.

Education can continue on TV. One channel for each class year.
Kids love watching TV and if it's made fun to watch, some kids may even prefer that option.

As for college, that's not even an issue. Most colleges are doing a good job and tools like Zoom enable classes to be given with zero risk.

I repeat that a total lockdown of a couple of months will do us all a favor by resetting the Covid meter to zero.
This is not something I'm making up, it's standard deadly virus pandemic protocol.
That woud take us back to January 2020 and people will be more eager to wear masks and distance after. During such lockdowns, governments will need to run ads on TV and repeat masks and distancing until people mumble it in their sleeps.
If we don't do it soon enough, even that may no longer be a feasible eradication strategy as Covid will be transmitted to other animals and ricochet back to us later.

Vaccines can and should still be part of the solution but by themselves, they can't get us out of this; and even if they could, they can't do it soon enough.
If we keep relying solely on vaccines, we may be wasting too much time.

Unfortunately, my hope that such a prolonged total lockdown will be enacted (soon enough) to limit the damage is fading. We may be in this for 4 to 5 years.

I'm writing to you from a Panama City in total lockdown.
Panama did this total lockdown from Dec. 24th to Dec. 28th and Jan. 1st to Jan. 4th. From Jan 4th, people will be allowed out according to gender and last number of their ID card.
Even essential businesses such as supermarkets and pharmacies are closed, but you can order food through services like Pedidosya. Police checkpoints are all over the city, not a soul on the streets.
If a 2 months long total lockdown is too long for people to digest, an alternative could be a weekly lockdown. For instance, reversing the weekday/weekend concept to allow people out only two days per week or every two weeks.
It will take longer this way compared to a total lockdown but it could be easier on people.

olle wrote:

noviorbis77 wrote:

olle wrote:

Considering that most suppliers has been preparing for a No Deal or a very bad FTA with huge amount of paperwork by filling up warehouses in UK the last 3-4 weeks in combination with most EU highways are not allowed to be used by haulers over weekends is this surprising?

The divorce between UK and EU will not be a heart attack but rather diabetes, not a big bang but slowly. In the end the result will be the same with less economical relations UK EU executed in small company to company decisions when defining supplier chains or on individual basis when applying for a job abroad does not result because of paperwork.

We are still doomed then? Poverty and hardship awaits us all?

I do not think anyone is doomed. Supply chains will be easier to maintain compared no deal. The FTA probably saved UK car manufactoring.

But it will be a few more minutes per truck and this is supposed to created jams in kent.

It seems a new ferry service from Ireland will aim to ease the pressure on the landbridge. 15 sailings a week from Rosslare to Dunkirk taking 24 hours. It will be interesting to see if its supported long term or if things calm down on the landbridge after some initial expected disruption will hauliers switch back.

—

On another note seeing as the UK has ordered so much once they vaccinated enough it would be a friendly gesture to assist their EU neighbours . I think it would go along way to heal some wounds .


Virus scientists attack EU for not ordering enough Covid vaccines

The German couple behind the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine have criticised the European Union for failing to order enough doses.
“The process in Europe was not as quick and straightforward as it was in other countries,” Prof Ugur Sahin, the billionaire scientist and CEO of BioNTech, told Spiegel magazine.

By comparison, the UK has ordered 30 million doses as well as 100 million doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, enough to immunise everyone.

Prof Sahin added: “It’s also because the EU is not directly authorised, but the member states have a say. In a situation where a quick decision is required, this can cost time.”

www.independent.ie/irish-news/virus-sci ... 22801.html

OA260 wrote:

On another note seeing as the UK has ordered so much once they vaccinated enough it would be a friendly gesture to assist their EU neighbours . I think it would go along way to heal some wounds

It's not like the EU neighbours will be lacking vaccines, quite on the contrary, the EU is looking at making part of its doses available to third world countries which can not buy them thelselves.
But it could be a nice diplomatic move from the UK Gov to have their EU 'friends and partners' consider accepting British Covid patients for which there will soon be no more room in NHS hospitals, out of compassion with the dire situation in the UK.

OA260 wrote:

The German couple behind the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine have criticised the European Union for failing to order enough doses.
“The process in Europe was not as quick and straightforward as it was in other countries,” Prof Ugur Sahin, the billionaire scientist and CEO of BioNTech, told Spiegel magazine.

Let's put this is the right context, shall we?
The CEO/co-owner of a company which is currently manufacturing the only EU approved vaccine so far would like to turn this temporarly administrative advantage into a permanent commercial advantage for his company.

FWIW, due to a blunder on Twitter by my country's health secretary, the confidential prices for all the different vaccines for the EU were accidenally published: the tweet got pulled soon after it was published, but the harm was done and since then everybody in Europe knows the prices. Here a link from a Dutch newswebsite showing the full price list for each:
https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederla ... en-duurste

The BioNTech vaccine is by far one of the most expensive as well as the most complex to administer (2 doses - superfozen transportation), so once there are others on the market, it will quicky loose it's appeal, hence this attempt to armtwist governments into buying more of it quickly, so the sale of repeat doses is also secured, later. Nice try, I'd say.
https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederla ... en-duurste
BioNTech 12 euro
AstraZeneca 1.78 euro

The leak also revealed the EU managed to undercut others like the UK or the US on the prices negotiated, thanks to its massive buying power
https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/lek-van- ... bfebf17a7/
BioNTech-Pfizer gets 12 euro per dose, whereas others pay 15.90 euro
Moderna charges the EU 14.70 euro per dose, whereas the price fork was previously set at 20 to 30 euro.

-----

Meanwhile, British voters are unimpressed by BoJo's handing of both Brexit and the Covid pandemic which is turning into a national disaster in the UK:
Tories would lose a whopping 81 seats if elections were held now, thus losing their majority: a hung parliament would be the outcome as Labour would fall short of a majority too
The PM himself would lose his own seat in Uxbridge too (!), an absolute first for a British PM to be unseated by his own constituants.
the SNP would win all but 2 of the 59 Scottish seats (!): Scottish referendum 2.0, hello anyone?!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 81587.html

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I repeat that a total lockdown of a couple of months will do us all a favor by resetting the Covid meter to zero.

Yet there are very few examples of true succes for this strategy.
Unless in totalitarian countries (China) or isolated countries (New Zealand).

Ireland had a very strict lockdown in October/November. Very little virus left at the end. Now beginning of January and they have record high numbers of infections again.

Unless if you truely get to zero, total lockdowns only create a pendulum where you'll have wave after wave. Since 6 months of total lockdown Chinese style is impossible in the West, a continuous semi-lockdown is the only realistic approach. This is the price we pay for freedom.

Jalap wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I repeat that a total lockdown of a couple of months will do us all a favor by resetting the Covid meter to zero.

Yet there are very few examples of true succes for this strategy.
Unless in totalitarian countries (China) or isolated countries (New Zealand).

Ireland had a very strict lockdown in October/November. Very little virus left at the end. Now beginning of January and they have record high numbers of infections again.

Unless if you truely get to zero, total lockdowns only create a pendulum where you'll have wave after wave..

I agree that that there are very few places where lockdowns could result in the local elimination of this virus a la New Zealand. As for the observation that Ireland forced the virus to a low level for it only to explode again once restrictions were eased, I suspect that this pattern would be repeated almost everywhere.

However, 2 things have changed recently, one widening the goal posts (evolution of more transmissible versions of the virus), the oither narrowing the goalposts (availabiliity of vaccines).

I would favour much more stringent restrictions to counter the first above until the second above starts narrowing the goalposts significantly. The altertnative to increased restrictions is predictably that health care systems will be overwhelmed.

For those not yet hit badly by the UK Mk2 variant, it is estimated to have an R0 value 0.3-0.7 higher than the Mk1 version it is supplanting here.

All the while authorities here are arguing about exactly which deckchairs should be re-arranged on our COVID-19 Titanic and in exactly what ways.

What is wrong with California, particularly LA county? Fatigue??? Understandable. But secret NYE and speakeasy gatherings. Bit rich for center of Hollywood, supposed to be role models.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Bit rich for center of Hollywood, supposed to be role models.

Like Harvey Weinstein you mean...

This reminds me of the title of a John Lennon song, 'Instant Karma';
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/am ... tmas-covid

While it is the case that younger people are mostly less at risk, (there have been some in that group though who have needed to be hospitalized), they are however excellent vectors to infect others.
In the UK this is not helped by a hapless Education Secretary, (even by the world beating dismal standards of Johnson's nodding dogs), who has been painfully out of his depth, his statements being a word salad with shit flavored dressing.
Much to the confusion, distress and anger of both many parents and those who have to teach the students.

dtw2hyd wrote:

What is wrong with California, particularly LA county? Fatigue??? Understandable. But secret NYE and speakeasy gatherings. Bit rich for center of Hollywood, supposed to be role models.

LA is at a natural disadvantage, or perhaps I should phrase it as: LA has a natural advantage for disease spread as the LA metro area has among the highest number of homes with a high number of people living in them. They have more multiple family households (homes with more than one family living in them) that most areas in the nation.
https://calmatters.org/projects/califor ... ods-homes/
http://www.city-data.com/city/Los-Angel ... ornia.html
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... bBQapM_lBm

Tugg

Tugger wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

What is wrong with California, particularly LA county? Fatigue??? Understandable. But secret NYE and speakeasy gatherings. Bit rich for center of Hollywood, supposed to be role models.

LA is at a natural disadvantage, or perhaps I should phrase it as: LA has a natural advantage for disease spread as the LA metro area has among the highest number of homes with a high number of people living in them. They have more multiple family households (homes with more than one family living in them) that most areas in the nation.
https://calmatters.org/projects/califor ... ods-homes/
http://www.city-data.com/city/Los-Angel ... ornia.html
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... bBQapM_lBm

Tugg

I am sorry, that excuse doesn't cut it. California is presently the WORST place in the world with COVID infections. LA's "natural advantage" excuse you use is not really what's at play here. Many cities in the world have homes with lots of people in them. And LA is not the exclusive one out of thousands of cities.

There are many reasons California is the worst place for COVID. I would start with their politicians, their government, primarily their governor who went to the French Laundry whilst telling people to stay home. People are fed up and tired of politicians telling them what to do whilst they do what they tell others they can't do.

California has been locked down, with mask orders since March 2020. They will go a year on this. Much longer than many many places in the world. I would start there.

Many believed that simply telling people not go go out and wearing a mask will stop the spread. You can't control millions of people. This is a failure of government thinking that they are the solution and not empowering responsibility on individuals.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

What is wrong with California, particularly LA county? Fatigue??? Understandable. But secret NYE and speakeasy gatherings. Bit rich for center of Hollywood, supposed to be role models.

LA is at a natural disadvantage, or perhaps I should phrase it as: LA has a natural advantage for disease spread as the LA metro area has among the highest number of homes with a high number of people living in them. They have more multiple family households (homes with more than one family living in them) that most areas in the nation.
https://calmatters.org/projects/califor ... ods-homes/
http://www.city-data.com/city/Los-Angel ... ornia.html
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... bBQapM_lBm

Tugg

I am sorry, that excuse doesn't cut it. California is presently the WORST place in the world with COVID infections. LA's "natural advantage" excuse you use is not really what's at play here. Many cities in the world have homes with lots of people in them. And LA is not the exclusive one out of thousands of cities.

There are many reasons California is the worst place for COVID. I would start with their politicians, their government, primarily their governor who went to the French Laundry whilst telling people to stay home. People are fed up and tired of politicians telling them what to do whilst they do what they tell others they can't do.

California has been locked down, with mask orders since March 2020. They will go a year on this. Much longer than many many places in the world. I would start there.

Many believed that simply telling people not go go out and wearing a mask will stop the spread. You can't control millions of people. This is a failure of government thinking that they are the solution and not empowering responsibility on individuals.

No, you are wrong.

This is just data. I understand that you want to ignore data, perhaps you just want to "blame California", good'ol libruhl Cali. But the data is real and LA is a mess and there is a real reason that creates that mess. Look at the science, look at the data. Stay at home orders in place where more people live and where more people have to go out to work (versus work from home) and then come back home and sans masks etc. intermingle again. It is a bad thing.


Tugg

Tugger wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

LA is at a natural disadvantage, or perhaps I should phrase it as: LA has a natural advantage for disease spread as the LA metro area has among the highest number of homes with a high number of people living in them. They have more multiple family households (homes with more than one family living in them) that most areas in the nation.
https://calmatters.org/projects/califor ... ods-homes/
http://www.city-data.com/city/Los-Angel ... ornia.html
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... bBQapM_lBm

Tugg

I am sorry, that excuse doesn't cut it. California is presently the WORST place in the world with COVID infections. LA's "natural advantage" excuse you use is not really what's at play here. Many cities in the world have homes with lots of people in them. And LA is not the exclusive one out of thousands of cities.

There are many reasons California is the worst place for COVID. I would start with their politicians, their government, primarily their governor who went to the French Laundry whilst telling people to stay home. People are fed up and tired of politicians telling them what to do whilst they do what they tell others they can't do.

California has been locked down, with mask orders since March 2020. They will go a year on this. Much longer than many many places in the world. I would start there.

Many believed that simply telling people not go go out and wearing a mask will stop the spread. You can't control millions of people. This is a failure of government thinking that they are the solution and not empowering responsibility on individuals.

No, you are wrong.

This is just data. I understand that you want to ignore data, perhaps you just want to "blame California", good'ol libruhl Cali. But the data is real and LA is a mess and there is a real reason that creates that mess. Look at the science, look at the data. Stay at home orders in place where more people live and where more people have to go out to work (versus work from home) and then come back home and sans masks etc. intermingle again. It is a bad thing.


Tugg

Well, for starters I live in South Florida. Yes there is a high prevalence of COVID there, but nothing like LA.

In Miami you got 10 people living in homes, minimum 6 or 7. Many many homes over here in the situation you mention, yet nothing like the levels you have in LA. And to top that, we are not locked down over here, you can sit on a restaurant, kids are going to school, which according to conventional wisdom we should be worse. Why aren't we?

So yes, blame California's politicians. And BTW, New York is also higher on COVID than Florida, and they also have been shut down since March.

You can't like I said think you will control millions of people just because you have the power. You can't.

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

LA is at a natural disadvantage, or perhaps I should phrase it as: LA has a natural advantage for disease spread as the LA metro area has among the highest number of homes with a high number of people living in them. They have more multiple family households (homes with more than one family living in them) that most areas in the nation.
https://calmatters.org/projects/califor ... ods-homes/
http://www.city-data.com/city/Los-Angel ... ornia.html
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... bBQapM_lBm

Tugg

I am sorry, that excuse doesn't cut it. California is presently the WORST place in the world with COVID infections. LA's "natural advantage" excuse you use is not really what's at play here. Many cities in the world have homes with lots of people in them. And LA is not the exclusive one out of thousands of cities.

There are many reasons California is the worst place for COVID. I would start with their politicians, their government, primarily their governor who went to the French Laundry whilst telling people to stay home. People are fed up and tired of politicians telling them what to do whilst they do what they tell others they can't do.

California has been locked down, with mask orders since March 2020. They will go a year on this. Much longer than many many places in the world. I would start there.

Many believed that simply telling people not go go out and wearing a mask will stop the spread. You can't control millions of people. This is a failure of government thinking that they are the solution and not empowering responsibility on individuals.

There are a few inaccurate statements in this post - the main thing you got right was that the French Laundry incident where Newsom dined with a lobbyist pissed a lot of people off. But that didn't make them go out.

The statewide stay at home orders were reinstituted December 4th - they have NOT been continuously in place since March as you falsely suggest. In my area things were already reopening in early June.

The biggest failure here is the tiered system of county re-openings introduced last August. Newsom was under pressure from business groups to get restaurants and tourism back up and running, so they introduced this illogical system where each county assessed its own situation for the benefit of local businesses. Public health experts at major California universities warned time and again that it was destined to fail, and it did. LA County is also very difficult to manage with 88 city jurisdictions and 140 incorporated areas.

Unfortunately the situation is worse now because of an added political dimension. There are a few 'red' areas around metropolitan LA that have been hotbeds of conspiracy theory and anti-mask activism and they have made inroads with the narrative in Southern California. Tens of thousands of people did holiday shopping at the outlet centers in Camarillo, Ontario Mills, etc. Even just yesterday there were anti-mask 'protest' groups invading malls in West LA. It's absolutely insane they're doing that when hospitals just down the road are at 0% ICU capacity.

San Francisco, by comparison, has been one of the success stories in COVID management amongst large cities, because they took a conservative approach to reopenings, tech companies encouraged almost all employees to work from home, and restaurants were encouraged to switch to a delivery-only model all summer long. Management and messaging was simple because the city and county are one entity and they have strong coordination with experts at UCSF.

This still doesn't answer my point on why California and New York are far worse than Florida. And no reason why California is the WORST place on earth from COVID.

You tell people not to do something, they will go somewhere else to gather and do what they can't do in another place. Best solution is to have everything open, let individuals use common sense, and practice social distancing.

I was just recently in Colorado hitting the slopes, I find it totally amazing how they ordered indoor dining closed, whilst Target, Walmart, etc are opened and packed, the ski shuttle buses packed. You can dine in Denver airport and sit at the restaurant, yet in my hotel I can't. Pretty stupid all of these rules which don't do anything but confuse and select winners and losers and send the packs of people into other areas.

Government intervention into this crisis has made it worse. And like everything big government in California, such as wildfires, homelessness and now COVID, its failure after failure. This is the end result of one party system.

Now the leftists who for months have said that Trump is killing grandpa, are toying with the idea of distributing the vaccine based on race. Freaking crazy what politics have done in this pandemic.

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

This still doesn't answer my point on why California and New York are far worse than Florida. And no reason why California is the WORST place on earth from COVID.

You tell people not to do something, they will go somewhere else to gather and do what they can't do in another place. Best solution is to have everything open, let individuals use common sense, and practice social distancing.

Another false statement. Brazil and the US as a whole are still far ahead of California. 3rd worst is among the worst, not worst. Worst is a superlative. Is it so hard to find accurate information?

Except the US and Brazil are not a state nor a province. You love your state and you are happy with how they have handled COVID, good for you.

In the meantime, this last trip I did outside of Florida made me love my state even more, in fact I got called out on why I was in Colorado, if Florida is so free and you can basically lead a normal life. Granted I guess the lack of mountains here does prove to have a certain disadvantage.

Nonetheless, at the end of the day, my point which I have been saying in this forum since March is going to be proven. Government intervention has made COVID worse, than what it really is. California is a testament to that.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

This still doesn't answer my point on why California and New York are far worse than Florida. And no reason why California is the WORST place on earth from COVID.

You tell people not to do something, they will go somewhere else to gather and do what they can't do in another place. Best solution is to have everything open, let individuals use common sense, and practice social distancing.

Another false statement. Brazil and the US as a whole are still far ahead of California. 3rd worst is among the worst, not worst. Worst is a superlative. Is it so hard to find accurate information?

Except the US and Brazil are not a state nor a province. You love your state and you are happy with how they have handled COVID, good for you.

In the meantime, this last trip I did outside of Florida made me love my state even more, in fact I got called out on why I was in Colorado, if Florida is so free and you can basically lead a normal life. Granted I guess the lack of mountains here does prove to have a certain disadvantage.

Nonetheless, at the end of the day, my point which I have been saying in this forum since March is going to be proven. Government intervention has made COVID worse, than what it really is. California is a testament to that.

How is california the worst?

Per 1 million people getting infected they are running at 32nd. For Deaths they are running at 39th. Is it just a math problem or do you have other data suggesting California is bad?

You will find a lot of red states leading in the cases per million.

NJ and New York lead in deaths due to being at the forefront of the initial wave.

Lockdowns mean nothing if people ignore them. Mandates to wear masks mean nothing if people ignore it.
It really comes down to people doing what they are asked to do. A large part of it is effective communication by political leaders and leading by example.

Regarding the silly "game" of "Who Is Doing Worst", Nevada as a state is worst glancing at this map: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html
In the case of California, the north is doing much better than the south. The worst county seem to be San Bernardino with 143 cases per 100,000.

Florida is doing phenomenally well. It’s why they fired that data scientist who refused to falsify numbers, then raided her home months later to confiscate her computers and any other information she had after she continued her analysis as a private citizen.

You know, as one casually does in a free and open society that isn’t trying to cover up or hide anything.

But hey, those pesky communist Chinese, huh? Liars the whole lot of them!

Jalap wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I repeat that a total lockdown of a couple of months will do us all a favor by resetting the Covid meter to zero.

Yet there are very few examples of true succes for this strategy.
Unless in totalitarian countries (China) or isolated countries (New Zealand).

Ireland had a very strict lockdown in October/November. Very little virus left at the end. Now beginning of January and they have record high numbers of infections again.

Unless if you truely get to zero, total lockdowns only create a pendulum where you'll have wave after wave. Since 6 months of total lockdown Chinese style is impossible in the West, a continuous semi-lockdown is the only realistic approach. This is the price we pay for freedom.

Ireland was not even close to zero new cases when they eased their October lockdown in December and the current surge happened soon after that easing.
What you are showing is a textbook example of reopening too soon.

Lockdown to zero cases means literally zero cases.
Not 1000 per day, not 500 per day, not even 10 per day.
Get the case count to zero per day and maintain it for 3-4 weeks and then you can reopen domestically.
That's what New Zealand did.

What Ireland did is the same mistakes that have been repeated so many times now by EU countries.
Cases go down, then they reopen too soon. Cases surge again. Close everything up.
Repeat.

The cumulative effects of repeated lockdowns are worse than a single proper longer lockdown.

Coronavirus: Republic of Ireland to move to highest restrictions
Published 19 October 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55130966

Coronavirus: Ireland's shops reopen as restrictions eased
Published 1 December 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55130966



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/ireland/


Stop saying that a reset lockdown to zero would not work, citing the examples that are doing it wrong.
It's our only way out and it's not an eternal option.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Jalap wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I repeat that a total lockdown of a couple of months will do us all a favor by resetting the Covid meter to zero.

Yet there are very few examples of true succes for this strategy.
Unless in totalitarian countries (China) or isolated countries (New Zealand).

Ireland had a very strict lockdown in October/November. Very little virus left at the end. Now beginning of January and they have record high numbers of infections again.

Unless if you truely get to zero, total lockdowns only create a pendulum where you'll have wave after wave. Since 6 months of total lockdown Chinese style is impossible in the West, a continuous semi-lockdown is the only realistic approach. This is the price we pay for freedom.

Ireland was not even close to zero new cases when they eased their October lockdown in December and the current surge happened soon after that easing.
What you are showing is a textbook example of reopening too soon.

Lockdown to zero cases means literally zero cases.
Not 1000 per day, not 500 per day, not even 10 per day.
Get the case count to zero per day and maintain it for 3-4 weeks and then you can reopen domestically.
That's what New Zealand did.

What Ireland did is the same mistakes that have been repeated so many times now by EU countries.
Cases go down, then they reopen too soon. Cases surge again. Close everything up.
Repeat.

The cumulative effects of repeated lockdowns are worse than a single proper longer lockdown.

Coronavirus: Republic of Ireland to move to highest restrictions
Published 19 October 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55130966

Coronavirus: Ireland's shops reopen as restrictions eased
Published 1 December 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55130966



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/ireland/


Stop saying that a reset lockdown to zero would not work, citing the examples that are doing it wrong.
It's our only way out and it's not an eternal option.

The only way we can bring cases down is if people actually listen and do the right thing

Respectfully to all. The only way out is to roll out a vaccine as quickly as possible. Israel, the UK and the USA have vaccinated the most people (Bahrain is up there as a % too). But the logistics of rolling this out needs the fullest government attention. While the UK has vaccinated over a million by new year apparently France hadn't even managed 200. Canada has done poorly too. One million double vaccinations in a month means around 3000 vaccinations per hour round the clock across the country. With tens of millions of people needing vaccinations to protect the population (in most countries) this is a big big challenge. We will be fortunate to have half the population of most major countries done by the end of 2021.. which will still not be enough to protect the population at large. Meanwhile the virus mutations will continue apace and potentially even negate the effectiveness of the vaccines in some instances. In short, an urgent single minded roll out of the vaccines is the only course of action that will re establish normality, economic activity and the 2021 we all hope for.

Researched into COVID vaccines and treatments can never stop. It should go on indefinitely.

steveinbc wrote:

Respectfully to all. The only way out is to roll out a vaccine as quickly as possible. Israel, the UK and the USA have vaccinated the most people (Bahrain is up there as a % too). But the logistics of rolling this out needs the fullest government attention. While the UK has vaccinated over a million by new year apparently France hadn't even managed 200. Canada has done poorly too. One million double vaccinations in a month means around 3000 vaccinations per hour round the clock across the country. With tens of millions of people needing vaccinations to protect the population (in most countries) this is a big big challenge. We will be fortunate to have half the population of most major countries done by the end of 2021.. which will still not be enough to protect the population at large. Meanwhile the virus mutations will continue apace and potentially even negate the effectiveness of the vaccines in some instances. In short, an urgent single minded roll out of the vaccines is the only course of action that will re establish normality, economic activity and the 2021 we all hope for.

-Vaccines alone can't prevent the next 5 and more waves from happening. (opinion and prediction)
-Vaccines do not prevent infection. Even if they may reduce the infection rate, the virus is mutating into a more infectious variant, so irrelevant. (as discussed ad nauseum)
-Vaccines may be able to improve the outcome for infected individuals, but it's uncertain to what extent and for what duration.

In the US, over the course of the past 9 months, about 7% of the population was confirmed to have been infected, and about 0.1% of the population has been confirmed a victim of Covid. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
Vaccine trials measuring a population of 15.000 particpants injected with vaccines and monitored over the course of 3 months for sets of symptoms (and not on the basis of contacts or sweep-testing) during a relatively mild period in the northern hemisphere ie summer into fall, may hence not yield relevant enough results to determine the vaccines' real-life effectiveness. In fact, if real-life effectiveness appears to be much lower, there is a risk of accelerating the spread of the virus through change of behavior of the vaccinated individuals.

Vaccines alone are hence not a reliable nor viable fast exit strategy.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Jalap wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I repeat that a total lockdown of a couple of months will do us all a favor by resetting the Covid meter to zero.

Yet there are very few examples of true succes for this strategy.
Unless in totalitarian countries (China) or isolated countries (New Zealand).

Ireland had a very strict lockdown in October/November. Very little virus left at the end. Now beginning of January and they have record high numbers of infections again.

Unless if you truely get to zero, total lockdowns only create a pendulum where you'll have wave after wave. Since 6 months of total lockdown Chinese style is impossible in the West, a continuous semi-lockdown is the only realistic approach. This is the price we pay for freedom.

Ireland was not even close to zero new cases when they eased their October lockdown in December and the current surge happened soon after that easing.
What you are showing is a textbook example of reopening too soon.

Lockdown to zero cases means literally zero cases.
Not 1000 per day, not 500 per day, not even 10 per day.
Get the case count to zero per day and maintain it for 3-4 weeks and then you can reopen domestically.
That's what New Zealand did.

What Ireland did is the same mistakes that have been repeated so many times now by EU countries.
Cases go down, then they reopen too soon. Cases surge again. Close everything up.
Repeat.

The cumulative effects of repeated lockdowns are worse than a single proper longer lockdown.

Coronavirus: Republic of Ireland to move to highest restrictions
Published 19 October 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55130966

Coronavirus: Ireland's shops reopen as restrictions eased
Published 1 December 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55130966



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/ireland/


Stop saying that a reset lockdown to zero would not work, citing the examples that are doing it wrong.
It's our only way out and it's not an eternal option.

Problem is that countries will reopen borders with others that haven’t had these stringent lockdown measures, or the fringe loonies in a country will do their best to get infected and spread the virus as far and as quickly as they can.

This morning I’m waiting to get a quick takeaway breakfast and wearing a mask as required by law, while the lady also waiting nearby doesn’t even wear a mask. Unfortunately no police were around to fine her $215.

It should be a $2150 fine really! Hit them hard if they want to be irresponsible and ruin it for everyone.