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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:12 pm

Aesma wrote:
olle : it makes sense because the EU has been clear that services are for EU members (or EEA), basically.


And I guess (hope) the EU has learnt from the Icesave debacle. Unregulated bank getting savings from EU citizens and then go bankrupt. So hopefully they are more careful than letting in financial services from outside the EU without proper supervision from the EU. And given the UK doesn't want. EU supervision, I hope this is a no-go.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:28 pm

Dutchy wrote:
The reality is that Brexit is harmful to the economy and that can even be seen in these early stages. But that was known to anyone, even before the vote. So Brexiteers voted. for this.

Most of these predictions were under the pretense that there would be a hard Brexit. Because Johnson gave in at the last possible moment. and didn't want to do a real hard Brexit, some of the worst consequences were avoided. So not quite sure what you want to achieve with that remark.


Governor Bailey of the BoE, speaking to the House of Commons Treasury Committee for the first time since Brexit, said the last minute deal between the EU and the U.K. was broadly in line with what the BoE forecast in November, when central bank officials estimated an immediate 2% hit to the economy for the next three years. However, those costs will further increase over time, as the OBR also projected, he said, with gross domestic product stabilising as much as 4% lower in the long term than it would be had the country remained in the EU.

Brexit would thus cost the equivalent of more than 80 billion pounds per year!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

The remarks are likely to anger Brexit supporters, who hailed Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s last-gasp deal with the EU as a triumph that lays the foundations for a robust recovery from the coronavirus. Critics say the agreement does in fact safeguard Europe's massive trade surplus with the U.K, burdens British exporting businesses with extra red tape and leaves the nation’s enormous services sector, including its banks, at a significant disadvantage.
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:28 pm

Dutchy wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
https://news.sky.com/story/boe-governor-brexit-job-exodus-substantially-less-than-predicted-12180684?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot of the doom stories and predicitions from our resident experts exposed as nonsense.


And our resident experts of Brexit all their perceived unicorns exposed?

The reality is that Brexit is harmful to the economy and that can even be seen in these early stages. But that was known to anyone, even before the vote. So Brexiteers voted. for this.

Most of these predictions were under the pretense that there would be a hard Brexit. Because Johnson gave in at the last possible moment. and didn't want to do a real hard Brexit, some of the worst consequences. were avoided. So not quite sure what you want to achieve with that remark.

5 billion dollars has been transferred out of the city of London in shares since Brexit. According to the CEO of a trading firm. He has seen 99% of his business shift from the UK to Europe. While Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers were preoccupied with "fish", they dropped the ball on the other aspects of the economy, principally financial services.


For sure that's not a good sign for the City but I've read elsewhere that particular example wasn't actually a problem (yet) as the business didn't actually shifted, only the funds. The 5-6billion figure is the daily trade volume that as shifted from London to Amsterdam-Frankfurt-Paris, but the trade orders still comes from the same team in London.
It's just London stock exchange seeing less volume than before, the real threat is EU being able to cut the City traders abiliy to trade in other markets with very short notice and without even a reason.
OK I'm not at all trade expert, but that's what I understood about all this.

Now we are Brexit +7 it seems brexiters found something to rejoice : there is no chaos. Even if there is some underlying reasons explaining why the immediate chaos prediction were wrong (primarily because nobody serious claimed such a chaos), they are right about this.

However what we see is that the original purpose of the Transition Period was useful. Teething problems and unforeseen consequences was expected, but now have to be dealt with on the spot.
Boats gathering dust...
Continuity deals not agreed in time because waiting for EU-UK deal
For the Express, to realise with horror that being in charge and banning Norwegian boat on sunday means consequences on monday.
Or more technicaly, for "hubbers" who used to buy in bulk then reassort in mixed packages, the operation on the product is so small that it doesn't meet Rules of Origin to qualify as 0 tariff

But an EU official warned that some businesses would simply have to adapt their operations given the new regime. “You can’t expect Brexit not to have consequences,” said the official. “The UK won’t be a distribution hub for the EU any more. EU businesses will need to stop relying on UK hubs.”

The Cabinet Office said the problem was “not an issue” if businesses did not clear customs or used so-called “transit procedure” in order to route goods through the UK without them entering into the marketplace. “We continue to work closely with businesses to help them to adapt to any new trading requirements,” a spokesperson added.

However the FDF said that transit did not provide a “workable solution” for many producers as the goods did not simply pass through the UK but were broken up and repackaged for onward transport back into EU markets.


https://www.ft.com/content/c068fc5f-dfe4-4890-8153-a59e1833c100

Seems that the "no chaos" thing is the only positive we can find right now. :beady:
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:03 pm

This one is really funny. A pro-Brexit organisation moves to Ireland in order to keep its .eu URL.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/pro-brexit-campaign-leave-eu-relocates-to-waterford-1.4452308
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:15 pm

LJ wrote:
This one is really funny. A pro-Brexit organisation moves to Ireland in order to keep its .eu URL.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/pro-brexit-campaign-leave-eu-relocates-to-waterford-1.4452308


They have no longer a purpose, they should disabenden themselves.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:57 pm

The City has that bloated size because of its position in the EU. It makes perfect sense that the EU tries to get back in its are as much as it can.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:13 am

About the hub thing, wasn't it a massive operation in the UK because duties were massively avoided by lax custom controls?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:26 am

So it appears this has now become mainly a EU grousing topic. (It appears, in my opinion at least). The UK will do what it needs to do for trade or for whatever but it will make those decisions itself (yes with the knowledge that the mighty EU can snuff them out or make their existence a living hell at at any moment over any disagreement or dispute).

Los of things yet to discover but with a grounded basis for discussions and the fact that there is no longer a "hard" landing waiting out there, it can all be dealt with as needed.

Tugg
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:39 am

They need to sort out the shellfish, I don't want prices to increase !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:50 am

Tugger wrote:
So it appears this has now become mainly a EU grousing topic. (It appears, in my opinion at least).
Tugg


What you see happening is what we posted here about what would be he result of Brexit. Of course there a bit of schadenfreude but it is mainly due to the posts from brexiters denying all with saying project fear, project fear !
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:59 am

Tugger wrote:
Los of things yet to discover but with a grounded basis for discussions and the fact that there is no longer a "hard" landing waiting out there, it can all be dealt with as needed.


Some commentating on articles in The Express will disagree. They're already demanding to scrap the agreement as, in their view, the EU is blockading UK business into the EU. The unfortunate thing is that Brexit discussions aren't over. Moreover, we still have the EU parliament to approve the agreement. Though the expectation is that they'll approve, one cannot be sure that they won't ask for amendments which are unacceptable for the UK. What will happen in such a situation is anyone's guess (especially given the fact the UK start to realize what Brexit actually entails).
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:12 am

Olddog wrote:
Tugger wrote:
So it appears this has now become mainly a EU grousing topic. (It appears, in my opinion at least).
Tugg


What you see happening is what we posted here about what would be he result of Brexit. Of course there a bit of schadenfreude but it is mainly due to the posts from brexiters denying all with saying project fear, project fear !


And the political situation in Northern Ireland and Scotland is also a result of Brexit. Than you have the agreementent on services, if that is happening. That one is most important to the UK, there they have a trade surplus with the EU. And the trade agrement itself will be a continuing story.

So theres threads will continue for a while. Not all the 'benefits' of Brexit are yet known.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:10 am

The conclusion after 1 week of Brexit: "it's a mess".

With cross channel traffic well below its usual levels, the pain has so far manifested itself out of sight at factory gates and truckers’ depots, as many firms decided to stockpile goods or delay deliveries, as well as reduce their volumes because of the COVID pandemic. Cross channel traffic is currently down 85% from its 2019 average, so the lull in traffic simply means delays haven’t hit major U.K. ports, yet.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:09 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
The conclusion after 1 week of Brexit: "it's a mess".

With cross channel traffic well below its usual levels, the pain has so far manifested itself out of sight at factory gates and truckers’ depots, as many firms decided to stockpile goods or delay deliveries, as well as reduce their volumes because of the COVID pandemic. Cross channel traffic is currently down 85% from its 2019 average, so the lull in traffic simply means delays haven’t hit major U.K. ports, yet.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe



Either they will learn fast or customers will walk away.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:36 pm

Olddog wrote:
Tugger wrote:
So it appears this has now become mainly a EU grousing topic. (It appears, in my opinion at least).
Tugg


What you see happening is what we posted here about what would be he result of Brexit. Of course there a bit of schadenfreude but it is mainly due to the posts from brexiters denying all with saying project fear, project fear !



I would actually like to have a discussion where EU is heading and UK is heading. Sadly I think that UK and EU to have a lot of competition while their interests differ a lot in the future.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:50 pm

That discussion will take place in the EU but probably not before the end of the covid crisis
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:50 pm

UK have problem exporting fish to EU because admin;

Fishermen in the UK are halting their exports to European Union countries over new border bureaucracy introduced by the government as part of Brexit.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 84289.html
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:53 pm

I start to have the impression that there will be no traffic jams in Kent while the business relations is decreasing fast EU UK... Any thoughts?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:57 pm

Right now central banks and governments, ECB included, are shoveling cheap money at everybody, so there isn't even that much of a need for other kinds of financing.

And frankly the professor asking to "redress the balance" after the fact, is he playing dumb or what ? Brexiteers said for years that the UK had all the cards and shouldn't sign a bad deal, well, it turns out they were totally wrong, and now nothing can be done about it.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:08 pm

So now the UK is actually outside of the EU, and to the surprise of many the EU is actually acting in its own interest and England is left out in the cold. Who could have ever thought so?
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:36 am

Staff absences across the whole of the NHS last April reached 6%. Sources inside the service believe the real figure now may be above 12%.

Brexit has also played its part – many international staff have left the country. “We lost a vast number of trained staff very, very quickly in the last six months,” says Puthucheary.

“Intensive care units have been staffed by Portuguese nurses, Spanish nurses, Italian nurses, left, right and centre, and they’ve left. The ones who stayed are the ones who’ve got personal ties to the country.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... et-to-come
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:49 am

Business leaders what the UK government to restart trade negotiations as being outside of the Single Market hurts UK business. Maybe EEA membership after all?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/10/baffling-brexit-rules-threaten-export-chaos-gove-is-warned

Didnt the UK government mentioned once that it didn't intend to restart trade negotiations until next year? Ot was this in case of no-deal only?

Anyway, it's good to see that the anger is directed at the UK governement and not at the EU (Express and most of its readers aside).
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:08 am

LJ wrote:
Business leaders what the UK government to restart trade negotiations as being outside of the Single Market hurts UK business. Maybe EEA membership after all?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/10/baffling-brexit-rules-threaten-export-chaos-gove-is-warned

Didnt the UK government mentioned once that it didn't intend to restart trade negotiations until next year? Ot was this in case of no-deal only?

Anyway, it's good to see that the anger is directed at the UK governement and not at the EU (Express and most of its readers aside).


The problem is that this was the first FTA going from a fully integrated market (SM) to a Canada style SM access model.

MPs must have understood what they signed up for 2 weeks ago.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Johnson assured Northern Ireland business owners in November 2019 that they would have “unfettered access” to the rest of the UK. “There will be no forms, no checks, no barriers of any kind,” he said. If anyone told them they needed to fill in forms, “tell them to ring up the PM and I will direct them to throw that form in the bin.”

------------------------------------------------------------

End of 2021 this will haunt pro business Tory party or they will need to do like Republican party with Trump and declare him unfit for office.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:13 am

olle wrote:
Staff absences across the whole of the NHS last April reached 6%. Sources inside the service believe the real figure now may be above 12%.

Brexit has also played its part – many international staff have left the country. “We lost a vast number of trained staff very, very quickly in the last six months,” says Puthucheary.

“Intensive care units have been staffed by Portuguese nurses, Spanish nurses, Italian nurses, left, right and centre, and they’ve left. The ones who stayed are the ones who’ve got personal ties to the country.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... et-to-come


How much is this mirrored in Financial industry, software engineers etc? Is it only related to covid or also the decrease of £ value meaning that salaries home is more attractive?
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:06 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
Let's hope that should independance have to happen, the 4 UK nations would manage it more smoothly than brexit. The divorce phase like the new relationship arrangements.


I guess a lot of it will depend on the attitude of the Nationalists in the negotiations. Sturgeon (or whoever is leading the SNP) will want to demonstrate Scotland can have its cake and eat it like the Brexiteer’s a few years ago, but deep down they know they will have to take their share of things such as the national debt and resolve issues that won’t affect the day-to-day lives of ordinary people, particularly when it comes to trade and everything else that involves crossing the border. I would hazard a guess that a messy divorce from the rest of the UK without a deal in place will be more harmful for Scotland initially as they will also be outside the EU at that point.

If the Brexit process has taught us one thing, these things can be complicated and it should also be a warning that it’s in everyone’s interests to work together and for the departing party to not take a gung-ho approach.

Grizzly410 wrote:
Those elections are rather far in the future compared to the Scottish elections, but of course a good indication. If SNP realize a score like this while campaigning heavily for a referendum The UK gov would have a clear indication of what the Scots wants now, not in next generation. Don't you think so ?

I appreciate that the gov is quite good at ignoring completely 48% of voters and can't be legaly forced to listen to them specificaly anyway.


General election opinion polls are worthless at this time as the latest an election can be held is December 2024 and Boris Johnson is unlikely to have any reason to go to the country to seek a fresh mandate like he did in 2019 give on he has a majority (unless he takes a walk in the mountains like his predecessor and decides he needs a bigger majority now and it can’t wait until the end of the current term). 3 years from now will be a good indicator as it will be less than 12 months to go before the next election.

As for the Scottish elections, if Nicola Sturgeon returns as First Minister and puts in a Section 30 order, it will most likely be rejected by Johnson. If that was to happen, I can actually see Sturgeon’s position as First Minister and SNP leader becoming untenable. Sturgeon only wants to hold a referendum with the legal consent from Westminster (for many reasons it’s probably the best way to go about this), but I sense the party are getting restless over the lack of plan B to hold a referendum if this is rejected once again and can see them taking steps to remove Sturgeon from her position if she doesn’t come up with something that will appease them and is workable.

Unless of course the continued fallout from the Alex Salmond scandal finishes her before then: -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-55593864
 
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:42 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
So now the UK is actually outside of the EU, and to the surprise of many the EU is actually acting in its own interest and England is left out in the cold. Who could have ever thought so?


I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you. :wink2:
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Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:11 am

olle wrote:
I start to have the impression that there will be no traffic jams in Kent while the business relations is decreasing fast EU UK... Any thoughts?


Yesterday I drove via the Channel Tunnel from the UK back home to Germany. I have never seen so few lorries or cars using the Tunnel. The M20 was setup for the holding operation of lorries but there was nothing there. On the other side in France, Belgium again very few lorries heading towards Calais. There were a lot of lorries with no container / curtain section, more than I've ever seen so maybe a lot more are now just sending containers over.

Customs was easy enough, but then I do have residency in the EU. Covid needed lots of paperwork plus being tested, but that's a good thing. There we no extra checks at the tunnel than before Brexit (aside from French customs asking where I lived and proof of it), but then only essential travel is allowed right now. Lets see when that limitation is removed and holidays are allowed again.

I had read that Dutch customs were thoroughly checking passenger cars arrivng on ferries (and confiscating some food stuffs), but that didn't happen to me yesterday.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:25 am

olle wrote:
LJ wrote:
Business leaders what the UK government to restart trade negotiations as being outside of the Single Market hurts UK business. Maybe EEA membership after all?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/10/baffling-brexit-rules-threaten-export-chaos-gove-is-warned

Didnt the UK government mentioned once that it didn't intend to restart trade negotiations until next year? Ot was this in case of no-deal only?

Anyway, it's good to see that the anger is directed at the UK governement and not at the EU (Express and most of its readers aside).


The problem is that this was the first FTA going from a fully integrated market (SM) to a Canada style SM access model.

MPs must have understood what they signed up for 2 weeks ago.


These are Brexit consequences not deal consequences. If they hadn't signed anything things would be worse not better.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:40 pm

Aesma wrote:
olle wrote:
LJ wrote:
Business leaders what the UK government to restart trade negotiations as being outside of the Single Market hurts UK business. Maybe EEA membership after all?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/10/baffling-brexit-rules-threaten-export-chaos-gove-is-warned

Didnt the UK government mentioned once that it didn't intend to restart trade negotiations until next year? Ot was this in case of no-deal only?

Anyway, it's good to see that the anger is directed at the UK governement and not at the EU (Express and most of its readers aside).


The problem is that this was the first FTA going from a fully integrated market (SM) to a Canada style SM access model.

MPs must have understood what they signed up for 2 weeks ago.


These are Brexit consequences not deal consequences. If they hadn't signed anything things would be worse not better.


But they was not presented the FTA as a pest or cholera choice in my understanding.

I agree that the FTA is a better choice then no deal, but did MPs agree to the PMs description of the deal? Do brexiteers cheer the outcome?
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:57 pm

I am sorry but why the EU should care of brexiters opinion? If that deal is not good enough for hem thy can go the wto way for more sovereignty ....
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:25 pm

Olddog wrote:
I am sorry but why the EU should care of brexiters opinion? If that deal is not good enough for hem thy can go the wto way for more sovereignty ....


Of course not if the purpose not yo understanf what went wrong.
 
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:42 pm

Brexit is always presented as a one impact, UK. Take the nurses from Portugal or Spain, what are those countries using to balance the remittance payments? In general, people take a job in another country only if it is the best offer.

Although personally, it will be post a heafty start of Covid19 vaccinations before we see the true costs, both ways.

Lightsaber
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JJJ
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Brexit is always presented as a one impact, UK. Take the nurses from Portugal or Spain, what are those countries using to balance the remittance payments?


Spanish or Portuguese nurses for the most part don't send anything. They move to Britain, open a bank account there and pay their rent, utilities, etc. locally.

They're generally young graduates or childless couples.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:58 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Brexit is always presented as a one impact, UK. Take the nurses from Portugal or Spain, what are those countries using to balance the remittance payments? In general, people take a job in another country only if it is the best offer.


Shameless and baseless comment. Spain and Portugal (or Greece or Italy for that matter) do not rely at all in currency payments from expats, as it’s not that kind of immigration that works to send money home. More a development/experience/exchange journey becoming locals for a while, although obviously getting better conditions than at home we’re not running away from the 3er world to avoid hunger....
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:21 am

Reinhardt wrote:
I had read that Dutch customs were thoroughly checking passenger cars arrivng on ferries (and confiscating some food stuffs), but that didn't happen to me yesterday.


You mean the story about the Dutch seizing foodstuffs from people coming from the UK? I saw the complete item and it seems that Dutch customs are hoping that those caught are spreading the word that new regulations apply as of January 1st. Moreover, it's easier to do these checks when ther are only two ferries coming from the UK to The Netherlands as opposed to the multiple of ferries and Eurochunnel between Dover and Calais.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/11/dutch-officials-seize-ham-sandwiches-from-british-drivers

BTW It's always are delight to read the Express comment section. Two days ago, commentators said they would go via The Netherlands to mainland Europe as the French were unreasonable, now they boycott the Dutch. I wonder how long it will take until they boycott the Belgians and Irish and thus have no option but to stay in the UK for their holidays (unless they fly).
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:05 am

LJ wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
I had read that Dutch customs were thoroughly checking passenger cars arrivng on ferries (and confiscating some food stuffs), but that didn't happen to me yesterday.


You mean the story about the Dutch seizing foodstuffs from people coming from the UK? I saw the complete item and it seems that Dutch customs are hoping that those caught are spreading the word that new regulations apply as of January 1st. Moreover, it's easier to do these checks when ther are only two ferries coming from the UK to The Netherlands as opposed to the multiple of ferries and Eurochunnel between Dover and Calais.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/11/dutch-officials-seize-ham-sandwiches-from-british-drivers


They are absolutely right doing this, and very clever of them doing it now.
As you say: currently volumes of cross channel traffic are extremely low still, so doing these checks now doesn't hinder the overall flow too much, while it hopefully sends across a strong message the UK is a third country like any other, free to deviate sovereignly from EU rules... and thus having to accept the full consequences of it.
Just as you don't import any food to the US to keep diseases out, you don't import food to the EU just like that either.

All these Brits now ranting in the comment sections of 'the daily express' and 'the sun' never seemed to have realised taking a ham sandwich on a trip to the continent was possibly because the quality and sanitary checks on food at home were done to the guaranteed exact same standards as in the rest of the EEA...
You know, those dreadfull rules designed by unelected Eurocrats in Brussels, overseen by the totally useless ECJ in Luxembourg...
Pull that legal guarantee of a uniform rulebook and off goes the complementary right to bring anything with you: it's an international automatism not just limited to the EU alone, and rightfully so.
Simple as that really.

Brexit does have lots of personal consequences for Brits, even those not working in or deading with the EU: the UK is on a par with Ukraine now, or even lower...
So expect to queue for passport checking, for custom searches and of course to pay for an ETIAS on your passport soon too whenever you visit the EEA.
Oh, and possibly even being refused future entry if you misbehaved previously! Spending a night in police custody in some Spanish beach resort after a wild and drunk night out may lead to an entry in your file and thus being refused future entry not just to Spain, but also to other holiday destinations around the Med for a while....
 
Olddog
Posts: 1639
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:10 am

I found a blog post that explain rather well the basis of the new relation between EU and UK for the non europeans that sometimes wander in theses threads:
Brexit bureaucracy – it’s not a bug, it’s a feature

We have been told that the UK will prosper outside the EU because it has exceptionally creative and entrepreneurial business leaders. Let’s hope they arrive on the scene soon because, at the moment, a lot of our business leaders still don’t appear to have understood what the hell has just happened.

In mitigation, our government has not served its companies well. Politicians have been constantly reassuring business that everything will be fine. Perhaps a lot of people believed the prime minister when he said we were going to have tariff-free-trade. As the IFG’s Jill Rutter said, there was a lot of political pressure being applied to downplay the likely downsides of Brexit. Even so, basing the fate of your company on the guarantees of a man who said ‘fuck business’ and who was once sacked for lying might not be the soundest of business judgements. Not everyone was so credulous. As Pernille Rudlin, an expert on Euro-Japanese trade noted, Japanese companies in the UK have been preparing for Brexit for years and many moved parts of their operations to the EU in anticipation.

Nevertheless, as that great business guru David Brent would have said, we are where we are. Paul Weller’s words have rarely seemed more fitting:

What you see is what you get
You’ve made your bed, you’d better lie in it
You choose your leaders and place your trust
As their lies wash you down and their promises rust

The public got what the public wanted, or, at least, an interpretation of what it looked like a small majority of those who turned out to vote might have wanted in 2016. That involves increased red-tape, greater difficulty exporting and most likely, a lot of businesses going bust.

There really is no going back from this now. It’s not going to get ’sorted out’. Any easing of restrictions will only be temporary. The deal has been signed. This is Brexit. It is what it is and now we have to live with it.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3704
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:34 pm

Olddog wrote:
I found a blog post that explain rather well the basis of the new relation between EU and UK for the non europeans that sometimes wander in theses threads:
Brexit bureaucracy – it’s not a bug, it’s a feature


Interesting reading, but what amazes me is that so many business people in the UK only start to find out the consequences of Brexit, now?
I mean: there's been a referendum campaign, hasn't there? There's been 4.5 years of 'preparation' and 'information' by the UK government, hasn't there?
What have business people been told to believe, expect and prepare for, for more than half a decade, if I may ask?

The consequences of Brexit were dead-obvious right from the start since they flow automatically from the choices made!
They're all well documented, as they are the normal rules of trade for a third country, which the UK now is for the EU.
Brexit would have consequences, as M. Barnier repeatedly mentioned and not surprisingly he was right.

The EU built a trade wall around its external borders is so that trade can happen freely within its borders. Within these EU borders, the customs union means that imported goods have already had their tariffs paid and the single market means they have either been made or imported according to a common set of regulations. Therefore they can be moved around the EU freely, without any further checks and with full immunity for disruption.
By triggering Article 50 however, the UK set itself on a course to rip up that immunity, at which point, the normal rules of trade reappear.
The trouble is most of those of working age have little experience of life before the EU. We have traded tariff-free for as long as most people can remember and free of any checks at all since the implementation of the single market almost three decades ago. The single market was in place by the time the channel tunnel opened in 1994. On 31 December 2020, the trade framework that existed for much of people’s working lives was torn up. It seems that many have not yet grasped what this means.
Whatever ‘sorting out’ business groups now hope the government will do is unlikely to make much difference. The bureaucracy involved in our new trading agreement with the EU is not a bug. It’s a feature. It is meant to be like this. Outside the single market and customs union, things are more difficult than when you are inside them. That’s the whole point of having them in the first place.
It’s not like before, when we could complain about EU rules to Brussels and exert our influence to get them changed. This is now an agreement with an external trading bloc signed by our sovereign government. That, too, was the whole point.
There really is no going back from this now. It’s not going to get ’sorted out’. This is just Brexit. It is what it is and now we have to live with it.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3704
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:06 pm

Another article with real-world consequences:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

Brexit will cost British exporters alone 25 billion pounds ($34 billion) this year as a result of more red tape, shaving 1.1% off gross domestic product, according to a report Tuesday by the trade insurance company Euler Hermes Group SAS.

These are the biggest irritations hitting businesses because the U.K. is no longer a member of EU’s single market and customs union:

1- Rules of Origin
British firms must show where their goods were made and where each component in those products came from to avoid tariffs being levied on goods into the EU.

2- VAT
British exporters must register to pay VAT in EU nations immediately, each target country individually.

3- Health Checks
The Brexit deal didn’t align rules for cross-border shipments of phytosanitary products, which cover plants and seeds. While farm goods qualify for zero-tariff, zero-quota terms, it doesn’t apply to live plants, effectively meaning the EU just isn’t accepting any seeds or living plants.

4- Dueling Certifications
Products sold in the EU require a CE mark showing they meet health, safety and environmental standards. Because the U.K. wants to develop its own certification, companies selling in the EU will need to register for both standards.
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 437
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:05 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:26 pm

sabenapilot wrote:

1- Rules of Origin
British firms must show where their goods were made and where each component in those products came from to avoid tariffs being levied on goods into the EU.


For small companies trading with the EU this is a nightmare. If you are trading electronic goods you'll have dozens of components from different countries integrated into one finished product. if you have to account, record for every product, it's unviable.

sabenapilot wrote:
2- VAT
British exporters must register to pay VAT in EU nations immediately, each target country individually.


Again for small companies, it's not worth the paperwork, cost of time.

We're having to apply for a UK VAT ID to sell into the UK, it's not difficult to do. Before Brexit there was a sales threashold that if you sold into the UK a value of goods that exceeded it, you needed to be registered for UK VAT anyway (same in the other direction). So again, it stuffs the little guy and sales to countries that don't meet that threashold. I think I read that level was going to be reduced throughout Europe later this year to 15,000 EUR per year anyway, so most companies would have to obvide by it.

Most decent sized companies it's a hasle, but accept it will have to be done.

sabenapilot wrote:

4- Dueling Certifications
Products sold in the EU require a CE mark showing they meet health, safety and environmental standards. Because the U.K. wants to develop its own certification, companies selling in the EU will need to register for both standards.


I wrote on this forum many times about CE marks, EMCC etc. It's exactly as I said it would be.
Right now it looks like the UK will effectively copy the CE requirements, so it'll be the same tests that are required, but double the amount of paperwork will be required an the additional UK mark will need to be attached to products.

A pointless extra level of legilisation, where the UK helped setup CE marks in the first place.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10328
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:38 pm

Not only double the paperwork, but double the tests. Considering that no place in the EU will be able to certify the UK test and not place in the UK will be legally free to confirm CE conformity.
 
LJ
Posts: 5468
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:53 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:

1- Rules of Origin
British firms must show where their goods were made and where each component in those products came from to avoid tariffs being levied on goods into the EU.


For small companies trading with the EU this is a nightmare. If you are trading electronic goods you'll have dozens of components from different countries integrated into one finished product. if you have to account, record for every product, it's unviable. .


Do note that the same applies to EU companies selling in the UK. The only benefit is that the UK is currently not ready to handle the paperwork, but that wil change.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12522
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:55 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Another article with real-world consequences:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

Brexit will cost British exporters alone 25 billion pounds ($34 billion) this year as a result of more red tape, shaving 1.1% off gross domestic product, according to a report Tuesday by the trade insurance company Euler Hermes Group SAS.

These are the biggest irritations hitting businesses because the U.K. is no longer a member of EU’s single market and customs union:

1- Rules of Origin
British firms must show where their goods were made and where each component in those products came from to avoid tariffs being levied on goods into the EU.

2- VAT
British exporters must register to pay VAT in EU nations immediately, each target country individually.

3- Health Checks
The Brexit deal didn’t align rules for cross-border shipments of phytosanitary products, which cover plants and seeds. While farm goods qualify for zero-tariff, zero-quota terms, it doesn’t apply to live plants, effectively meaning the EU just isn’t accepting any seeds or living plants.

4- Dueling Certifications
Products sold in the EU require a CE mark showing they meet health, safety and environmental standards. Because the U.K. wants to develop its own certification, companies selling in the EU will need to register for both standards.


Luckily Brexiteers keep telling us that Brexit wasn't economical, but all about independence.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12522
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:11 pm

LJ wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:

1- Rules of Origin
British firms must show where their goods were made and where each component in those products came from to avoid tariffs being levied on goods into the EU.


For small companies trading with the EU this is a nightmare. If you are trading electronic goods you'll have dozens of components from different countries integrated into one finished product. if you have to account, record for every product, it's unviable. .


Do note that the same applies to EU companies selling in the UK. The only benefit is that the UK is currently not ready to handle the paperwork, but that wil change.


Sure, two things about that:
- UK exporters to the EU are at a disadvantage, EU costumers have probably sources to get the same as UK suppliers
- And for UK imports, the prices will rise in the UK, no domestic alternatives

Small EU businesses probably will abandon the UK market, too much hassle and lots of other markets with less red tape.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Reinhardt
Posts: 437
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:05 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:48 pm

Dutchy wrote:

Sure, two things about that:
- UK exporters to the EU are at a disadvantage, EU costumers have probably sources to get the same as UK suppliers
- And for UK imports, the prices will rise in the UK, no domestic alternatives

Small EU businesses probably will abandon the UK market, too much hassle and lots of other markets with less red tape.


Yes exactly right.

I'm seeing lots of smaller specialist EU shops have stopped selling to the UK. They are getting a ton of abuse on social media for it from Brexiteers but if you sell an item for a few hundred pounds with tight margins where is the point in continuing? Just put your focus in another EU country. As with everything, it's the UK's loss.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:19 pm

The great news for the fish;

With fish prices collapsing 80% I would consider that fishing industry will not be effected in way that us nice to the fishing industry rather the fish;

--------------------------

Meanwhile, Scottish fish exporters are warning that prices are “collapsing” by up to 80 per cent due to Brexit red tape and bureaucracy.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 85850.html
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:22 am

Did not someone inform them?

-------------------------------------------

The 71-year-old former shipyard worker from Newcastle said: "I feel badly let down.

"We paid a mortgage for 20 years to have a holiday home and a retirement bolt-hole for the winter.

"We're limited to just 90 days now, and that's not just for Spain, but anywhere we go in Europe on holiday.

"Say we cross from Newcastle to the Netherlands, that's counted.

"So you're already being restricted by time to come back into the UK."

Ex-pat Michel Euesden, who runs the Euro Weekly newspaper in the resort town of Fuengirola, told the BBC: "Our removal companies have never been busier. Every removal company across this coast has told our team they've never seen a situation like this.

"It's the first time in 25 years since we started the paper here that we've seen removal companies fully booked going out and coming back in.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13831 ... s-eu-rules
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:41 am

European sources say they are “confident” officials from Frontex, the EU’s border agency, will be allowed to enforce the bloc’s rules on the Rock. Brussels’ uniformed border force and coast guard will be patrolling the overseas territory, which is set to remain subject to the rule of the Schengen free-travel zone.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... tex-latest
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14601
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Brexit is always presented as a one impact, UK. Take the nurses from Portugal or Spain, what are those countries using to balance the remittance payments? In general, people take a job in another country only if it is the best offer.

Although personally, it will be post a heafty start of Covid19 vaccinations before we see the true costs, both ways.

Lightsaber


I don't think their salaries allow much sending money back home, especially considering apparently they need to pay an NHS surcharge despite working for the NHS !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:47 pm

Aesma wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Brexit is always presented as a one impact, UK. Take the nurses from Portugal or Spain, what are those countries using to balance the remittance payments? In general, people take a job in another country only if it is the best offer.

Although personally, it will be post a heafty start of Covid19 vaccinations before we see the true costs, both ways.

Lightsaber


I don't think their salaries allow much sending money back home, especially considering apparently they need to pay an NHS surcharge despite working for the NHS !


I think many young people has done this as an adventure and practise english.

Cost in UK is much higher and after the £ devaluation against € I feel that other markets is much more interesting.

Carpenters from Baltics today go to Germany and Scandinavia not UK so much.

At least in Sweden Stockholm area half the new doctors are foreign every year. The doctor that checked my girl as baby was from Spain as example.

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