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ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:29 pm

OA260 wrote:

But we dont know that because negotiations have not taken place. The EU said the UK could not have certain things but in the end deals were done and things that were once said red lines and impossible were negotiated. As we saw no one gets what they all want in a trade deal thats business. Its not rocket science. There well maybe clauses that are put in to take into account the geographic location and situation. Things maybe bartered either side. That certainly would not come as a surprise to even the most basic of business understanding.


Nope.

“ The CPTPP already exists, and the UK deciding to join would trigger accession talks, not a fundamental renegotiation. Or to put it another way: the UK will not be re-writing or modernising anything; it will be deciding whether to accept rules and approaches already finalised by others.”

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/econ ... hip-brexit

Unlike the Brexit negotiations, where the EU would also lose access to a market, there’s no status quo downside for CPTPP countries if they show the UK the door. Some of them already have FTAs with the UK; no real upside for them from reopening the agreement.

Pretty basic stuff, honestly.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:32 pm

Aesma wrote:
OA260 wrote:

But the UK isn't negotiating, the UK is joining a trade deal that is already in place, fully negotiated.


But even under the CPTPP if the individual country has a better FTA bilaterally the exporter can choose which one is more beneficial. There are certain aspects that can be negotiated if all parties are agreed. Whether that will happen or not is another matter but its not impossible either.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:58 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
“ The CPTPP already exists, and the UK deciding to join would trigger accession talks, not a fundamental renegotiation. Or to put it another way: the UK will not be re-writing or modernising anything; it will be deciding whether to accept rules and approaches already finalised by others.”
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/econ ... hip-brexit


Indeed: which is the irony I was talking about earlier on.
it still moves from a rule maker to a rule taker, and while doing it, it makes a complete mockery of its own Brexit target of being able to negotiate British bilateral agreements.

ElPistolero wrote:
Unlike the Brexit negotiations, where the EU would also lose access to a market, there’s no status quo downside for CPTPP countries if they show the UK the door. Some of them already have FTAs with the UK; no real upside for them from reopening the agreement.
Pretty basic stuff, honestly.


Indeed, joining this deal adds close to nothing actually, because most countries already enjoy a bilateral FTA anyway.
But it does provide for some good headlines back in the UK right at the first aniversary of Brexit and it will put government in a position to throw around some huge figures about x billions of trade which almost nobody can actually quantify or compare to other trade situations anyway, so it's just a PR stunt really.
As was saidbefore: the EU was invited to join too yet refused, prefering to go the bilateral route instead with each of these countries: that's obviously with a reason of course, but clearly the UK can't be too picky right now, can it? The government needs something to sell at home as a success, and it needs it soon.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:06 pm

LJ wrote:
UK Steel is urging the UK government to renegotiate part of the TCA as the quota for certain steel products is probably going to be run out by the end of Q1 2021 (and thus their steel becomes less competitive for EU buyers). When the quota has run out, a 25% tariff will apply on the relevant steel products when exported to the EU.

BTW didn't Boris Johnson say "No quotas and no tariffs" when he sold the TCA in his press briefing last December?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-55845067


But he didn't say till when, did he?
Besides, he also didn't say 'no tariffs" not to mean "no taxes",or "no custom clearing" or "no increased transportation costs" etc.
With BoJo it's far more interesting to listen to what he doesn't say, than to listen to what says, even though in the end he's likely going to be doing exactly the opposite a week later anyway.

Saying the TCA with the EU is a very one sided deal, is no longer a revelation is it?
it's a complete victory for the EU: its dealing only with goods in which the EU has a massive trade surplus with the UK, and yet they get to import everything like before, with the UK consumer absorbing all of the additional cost. In the other direction, British SMEs are simply overwhelmed by the administrative hurdle to export back to the EU. The disparity comes from the 'rules of origin' clause, which for an EU exporter is fairly simple to meet (the entire EEA is effectively 'home'), whereas for any British exporter its a huge issue in fact given the small home market to source from.

FWIW-
how many sectors of the British industry have already begged the UK government to renegotiate? I've lost count, after only 30 days of being outside of the SM...
And the all important financial sector isn't even included in any deal with the EU yet: it's currenlty kept on a 30-day termination contract by the EU!
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:42 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
“ The CPTPP already exists, and the UK deciding to join would trigger accession talks, not a fundamental renegotiation. Or to put it another way: the UK will not be re-writing or modernising anything; it will be deciding whether to accept rules and approaches already finalised by others.”
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/econ ... hip-brexit


Indeed: which is the irony I was talking about earlier on.
it still moves from a rule maker to a rule taker, and while doing it, it makes a complete mockery of its own Brexit target of being able to negotiate British bilateral agreements.

ElPistolero wrote:
Unlike the Brexit negotiations, where the EU would also lose access to a market, there’s no status quo downside for CPTPP countries if they show the UK the door. Some of them already have FTAs with the UK; no real upside for them from reopening the agreement.
Pretty basic stuff, honestly.


Indeed, joining this deal adds close to nothing actually, because most countries already enjoy a bilateral FTA anyway.
But it does provide for some good headlines back in the UK right at the first aniversary of Brexit and it will put government in a position to throw around some huge figures about x billions of trade which almost nobody can actually quantify or compare to other trade situations anyway, so it's just a PR stunt really.
As was saidbefore: the EU was invited to join too yet refused, prefering to go the bilateral route instead with each of these countries: that's obviously with a reason of course, but clearly the UK can't be too picky right now, can it? The government needs something to sell at home as a success, and it needs it soon.


Outside the Brexiteer spin zone, there doesn’t look like there’s much to see here.

Expect NZ and Aus will make positive noises in the hope of kicking the agriculture door open (which they’ve been trying for years, like the US), but that comes with its own set of domestic and export-to-the-EU challenges for UK producers.

The rest - Japan and Canada have already rolled over the EU FTA provisions. They’ll make the right noises but really can’t see them agreeing to any renegotiation / concessions.

But it has drowned out some of the Brexit bad news stories coming out of UK SMEs for the past couple of weeks, so dead cat effect achieved?
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:50 pm

Aesma wrote:
But the UK isn't negotiating, the UK is joining a trade deal that is already in place,s fully negotiated.

Why can't the UK negotiate? Trade deals are adjusted as needed including when any expansion of partners involved would occur. Doesn't mean that any concession will be made but it is entirely possible, there are always adjustments and improvements. Even the EU, which too the outside may be a single bloc, has constant internal discussions between member states about changes members may want in order to improve their benefit WRT any outside established agreement.

If the EU were to join, they would also negotiate but from what I am reading they are more of the opinion that "Mohammed must come to the Mountain” because the block is big enough to not care of participating in global trade if it occurs outside of terms they prefer.

And that is fine, to each their own.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:55 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
The government needs something to sell at home as a success, and it needs it soon.


Well they are in good company with the EU then who also need a good news story and desperately so after making such a mess over the last 72 hours. Maybe there is something when people suggested that UVDL was sent to the EU to get her out of Germany. One would think that you would send some of your top people to such an institution rather then the waste that you want to dispose of.

It seems they have now dragged Mairead McGuinness into the ring to try prop up UVDL and to apologise to her citizens back home. Mind you she did always look after No. 1 .
Seems she will have to walk a tightrope balance on the issue of the EU basically planing to putting up a hard border on another EU members states territory without even consulting with them.
Going forward Ireland may need a veto due to the trust that has been lost.


‘A mistake with serious consequences’ - EU Commissioner

Triggering Article 16 was intended to be a “market information gathering tool” but ended up being a mistake that will have “very serious consequences”, EU Commissioner for Finance Máiréad McGuinness has said.

http://www.independent.ie/news/a-mistak ... 33084.html


What she means by consequences we will have to wait and see . They may have to ease up on the Irish sea border if the DUP have their way. It has certainly focused minds in Stormont.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:01 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Outside the Brexiteer spin zone, there doesn’t look like there’s much to see here.

Well, I guess it's one of those 'tick the box quickly and move on' deals if it can be secured fairly easily.
It won't harm the UK, but there's nothing to write home about either. Very low hanging fruit, it is.
It will be most interesting to see exactly how this is marketed by the UK government over the next days: the more they toot it, the more they give away how empty handed they are in relation to the deals that really matter to the UK economy: US, EU (financial), PRC...

ElPistolero wrote:
Expect NZ and Aus will make positive noises in the hope of kicking the agriculture door open (which they’ve been trying for years, like the US), but that comes with its own set of domestic and export-to-the-EU challenges for UK producers.

It was M Heseltine who predicted the UK would quickly run into existential problems signing its 'own' deals because they'd conflict with the all important EU deal.
Which would effectively lead to the point the UK either has to give up the TCA with the EU, or revert to just copy-pasting from deals the EU has with third countries into their own deals to avoid any conflict, which thus renders the whole concept of 'better British deals' completely useless: they'll forever be rolled over EU deals, even if not in name any longer.
The UK-Japan deal demonstrated that already, even before the TCA was signed: at that moment, it was clear the UK would sign whatever the EU offered them and despite the grandstanding by BoJo for a couple of more weeks, they did so too in the end.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:05 pm

Tugger wrote:
Aesma wrote:
But the UK isn't negotiating, the UK is joining a trade deal that is already in place,s fully negotiated.


If the EU were to join, they would also negotiate but from what I am reading they are more of the opinion that "Mohammed must come to the Mountain” because the block is big enough to not care of participating in global trade if it occurs outside of terms they prefer.


Not quite, since the countries in that FTA don't form a common market, the EU just went to them on a bilateral basis, allowing more nuances in the agreements, more benefit for itself (obviously) and more benefit to the partner countries (that otherwise would tell the EU to join the FTA). Being a big block makes that flexible approach just easier, but is in no way limited to them. Having the manpower to negotiate several FTAs in parallel also helps of course.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:12 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Aesma wrote:
But the UK isn't negotiating, the UK is joining a trade deal that is already in place,s fully negotiated.


If the EU were to join, they would also negotiate but from what I am reading they are more of the opinion that "Mohammed must come to the Mountain” because the block is big enough to not care of participating in global trade if it occurs outside of terms they prefer.


Not quite, since the countries in that FTA don't form a common market, the EU just went to them on a bilateral basis, allowing more nuances in the agreements, more benefit for itself (obviously) and more benefit to the partner countries (that otherwise would tell the EU to join the FTA). Being a big block makes that flexible approach just easier, but is in no way limited to them. Having the manpower to negotiate several FTAs in parallel also helps of course.

Best regards
Thomas


Indeed, it was also the prefered method by D. Trump, remember?
No more multilateralism, but rather bilateralism, so the USA could alwasy play its full weight and never be isolated.
Ironically Brexiteers which have always felt a strong allignment with Trump, are actually playing in the hand of all those who use the Trump strategy in their bilateral contacts (i.e. the EU, although they don't want to have that said aloud). ;)
The more you see of Brexit, to clearer it becomes it is a project where the strategy was designed after launching it.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:15 pm

OA260 wrote:
Well they are in good company with the EU then who also need a good news story and desperately so after making such a mess over the last 72 hours.


Why the focus on one mistake of the EU in the midst of a crisis? Why resided it over and over again. AstraZeneca will deliver more, so the problem is gone now.

This was an incident, the UK Brexit problems are systematic. So shall we move on?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:18 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Ironically Brexiteers which have always felt a strong allignment with Trump.


Actually that is not factually correct . Some do but many certainly did and do not . Common misunderstanding by people that do not understand the demographics behind Brexit voters. Just like people were saying they were white Englanders. The make up of people who voted for Brexit goes across party lines and indeed ethnic lines. The stereotype maybe easy to use but it is in fact flawed.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:29 pm

Dutchy wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Well they are in good company with the EU then who also need a good news story and desperately so after making such a mess over the last 72 hours.


Why the focus on one mistake of the EU in the midst of a crisis? Why resided it over and over again. AstraZeneca will deliver more, so the problem is gone now.

This was an incident, the UK Brexit problems are systematic. So shall we move on?


So do you disagree with Mairead McGuinness when she says ''‘A mistake with serious consequences’'' ? She obviously knows her own country especially as she is from the Border Counties .

Its not over just watch this space and see it will come back to bite them. Many on all sides of the political divide agree on that one. Whenever there is an issue with Ireland / NI or the Irish sea border it will rear its ugly head. It was such an vital part of the Brexit deal according to the EU that they have now made it an issue and an issue that will determine the path of the relationship. Those that see it as one mistake that will be brushed under the carpet are in need of a wake up call. Its gone way past the A-Z arguement now its a issue of its own and how article 16 will be used in future for any issues.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:31 pm

OA260 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Ironically Brexiteers which have always felt a strong allignment with Trump.


Actually that is not factually correct . Some do but many certainly did and do not . Common misunderstanding by people that do not understand the demographics behind Brexit voters. Just like people were saying they were white Englanders. The make up of people who voted for Brexit goes across party lines and indeed ethnic lines. The stereotype maybe easy to use but it is in fact flawed.


You and I both know Brexit essentially was about getting Johnny Foreigner out.
(And I can even understand that, if you see what a mess successive UK governments have made of immigration by their own free choice BTW; nothing to do with FOM even)
We all know that, but it just can't be said aloud can it, so that's why the UK government had to build some economic case for it afterwards, which just isn't there...
That much should be clear by now and it would be most helpful if it would be openly admitted to.
As the discussion on the apparent vaccine nationalism by the UK government has shown us, being open about it would save us all a whole lot of problems because there's a whole lot of energy constantly wasted on dealing with all the sudden and unexpected consequences of the distractions the UK government comes up with to hide its true intend all the time.
But no matter how many times BoJo refers to the EU or 'our friends and allies on the Continent', masks have come off this week and the eyes of the EU have fully opened.
Bad news for British companies doing business in the EU, I'd say.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:36 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
masks have come off this week


You are indeed correct they have come off but its what Ive heard people in Ireland/NI saying about the EU . Dangerous game .
 
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Tugger
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:43 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Aesma wrote:
But the UK isn't negotiating, the UK is joining a trade deal that is already in place,s fully negotiated.


If the EU were to join, they would also negotiate but from what I am reading they are more of the opinion that "Mohammed must come to the Mountain” because the block is big enough to not care of participating in global trade if it occurs outside of terms they prefer.


Not quite, since the countries in that FTA don't form a common market, the EU just went to them on a bilateral basis, allowing more nuances in the agreements, more benefit for itself (obviously) and more benefit to the partner countries (that otherwise would tell the EU to join the FTA). Being a big block makes that flexible approach just easier, but is in no way limited to them. Having the manpower to negotiate several FTAs in parallel also helps of course.

Best regards
Thomas

I believe you missed what I was saying.

I agree (and indicated) the EU is a single market, one entity, that enters into agreements with other entities. (Hence "Mohammed must come to the Mountain" the EU enjoying being the mountain). What I was saying was that the UK can and is allowed to negotiate when joining other trade associations or agreements.

I also pointed out, which is I think where the confusion came from, that even though the EU is a single market to the outside world, within itself there are constant negotiations between the various nations regarding issues with trade agreements or internal rules, whereby the various nations work to ensure they are in the best position possible, balanced and equal in theory to all others members. But there are always some issues that constantly simmer. And this exists as well within all trading blocks and agreements and is why there is often willingness and support for readjustments from within when another entity wants to join and requests some changes or exceptions.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:47 pm

OA260 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
masks have come off this week


You are indeed correct they have come off but its what Ive heard people in Ireland/NI saying about the EU . Dangerous game .


Well, in a moment of 'stuff it', I'd say- make a choice.
British or Irish, yet hand back the percks of the losing side then.
As President Macron rightfully said: you can't effectively be half-friends forever.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:50 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
OA260 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
masks have come off this week


You are indeed correct they have come off but its what Ive heard people in Ireland/NI saying about the EU . Dangerous game .


Well, in a moment of 'stuff it', I'd say- make a choice.
British or Irish, yet hand back the percks of the losing side then.
As President Macron rightfully said: you can't effectively be half-friends forever.


Certainly a rich statement coming from Macron ;) lol.. but there you go life is full of these .
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:13 pm

Tugger wrote:
Aesma wrote:
But the UK isn't negotiating, the UK is joining a trade deal that is already in place,s fully negotiated.

Why can't the UK negotiate? Trade deals are adjusted as needed including when any expansion of partners involved would occur. Doesn't mean that any concession will be made but it is entirely possible, there are always adjustments and improvements. Even the EU, which too the outside may be a single bloc, has constant internal discussions between member states about changes members may want in order to improve their benefit WRT any outside established agreement.

If the EU were to join, they would also negotiate but from what I am reading they are more of the opinion that "Mohammed must come to the Mountain” because the block is big enough to not care of participating in global trade if it occurs outside of terms they prefer.

And that is fine, to each their own.

Tugg


They won’t because it’s not a single market. Any concession made to a new entrant has to be extended to all signatories; the effects are exponential, not incremental. CPTPP isn’t like the EU in that sense.

Japan, Canada, Korea - all of which already have EU rollover FTAs with the UK - are not going to cede ground to the UK because any concession to the UK will apply to Australia, NZ and other CPTPP members. It’s not just a concession to the UK.

We can keep arguing about what’s “possible”, but likelihood matters too. What’s in it for CPTPP participants who already have FTAs with the UK? What do they have to lose if the UK walks away? For them, the calculation is simple - sign the dotted line.

This has all the hallmarks of a PR exercise to distract from the litany of complaints coming from fisherman and haulers and SMEs.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:20 pm

OA260 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Well they are in good company with the EU then who also need a good news story and desperately so after making such a mess over the last 72 hours.


Why the focus on one mistake of the EU in the midst of a crisis? Why resided it over and over again. AstraZeneca will deliver more, so the problem is gone now.

This was an incident, the UK Brexit problems are systematic. So shall we move on?


So do you disagree with Mairead McGuinness when she says ''‘A mistake with serious consequences’'' ? She obviously knows her own country especially as she is from the Border Counties .

Its not over just watch this space and see it will come back to bite them. Many on all sides of the political divide agree on that one. Whenever there is an issue with Ireland / NI or the Irish sea border it will rear its ugly head. It was such an vital part of the Brexit deal according to the EU that they have now made it an issue and an issue that will determine the path of the relationship. Those that see it as one mistake that will be brushed under the carpet are in need of a wake up call. Its gone way past the A-Z arguement now its a issue of its own and how article 16 will be used in future for any issues.


Nope.

The fact that it was reversed in hours with the EU admitting it made a mistake, means it didn’t set any type of precedent.

Well, I suppose it sets a precedent for the UK to do something equally daft, and reverse it in a matter of hours, along with a mea culpa, but the net effect is, well, zero.

It falls in the same bag as threatening to break international law, but not following through on it. An impact on trust, egg on the EU’s face, but nothing more.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:46 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
It falls in the same bag as threatening to break international law, but not following through on it. An impact on trust, egg on the EU’s face, but nothing more.


Sadly an over simplistic view from outside. Well respected politicians and some less respected highlight that it will cause long term damage down the road .
Borders are a very contentious issue in NI . Things that Europeans look from outside and see something very simple are often surprised when the flying of a flag or
taking down of a flag can spark weeks of riots in the past. In fact well known community leaders and ex IRA / UDA members are saying had it not been for Covid 19
there would have been protests on the streets of NI as soon as this was announced. So when Covid 19 restrictions ease and the next Irish sea border fight comes up dont be
surprised if we are back here discussing it.


Tony Blair has criticised the European Union’s short-lived move to trigger article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol as a “very foolish” move that jeopardised the peace process.

www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/blair-says- ... 73239.html
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:05 pm

Aesma wrote:
LJ wrote:
UK Steel is urging the UK government to renegotiate part of the TCA as the quota for certain steel products is probably going to be run out by the end of Q1 2021 (and thus their steel becomes less competitive for EU buyers). When the quota has run out, a 25% tariff will apply on the relevant steel products when exported to the EU.

BTW didn't Boris Johnson say "No quotas and no tariffs" when he sold the TCA in his press briefing last December?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-55845067


Uh oh. I hadn't heard about this. From what I can find the steel is really made in the UK (from imported ore and coal) so the problem isn't the origin of it.


Was a big surprise to me as well (though not that strange as the EU does want to protect its steel industry) as I didn't spot it when reading the TCA. However, the other strange thing is why would the UK agree to a quota which is only 25% of the annual export of those particular steel products. Either the alternative was worse (thus less than 25%) or the UK negotiators didn't do their homework.

BTW this leaves the question: Are there other areas where there are quotas (fishing excluded)? Maybe it's time for me to read the entire TCA next weekend (though I've to admit, it's no fun reading it).
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:57 pm

OA260 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
It falls in the same bag as threatening to break international law, but not following through on it. An impact on trust, egg on the EU’s face, but nothing more.


Sadly an over simplistic view from outside. Well respected politicians and some less respected highlight that it will cause long term damage down the road .
Borders are a very contentious issue in NI . Things that Europeans look from outside and see something very simple are often surprised when the flying of a flag or
taking down of a flag can spark weeks of riots in the past. In fact well known community leaders and ex IRA / UDA members are saying had it not been for Covid 19
there would have been protests on the streets of NI as soon as this was announced. So when Covid 19 restrictions ease and the next Irish sea border fight comes up dont be
surprised if we are back here discussing it.


Tony Blair has criticised the European Union’s short-lived move to trigger article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol as a “very foolish” move that jeopardised the peace process.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/blai ... 73239.html


I agree with Blair that it was a stupid move on the part of the Commission.

This certainly doesn’t set any type of precedent. If the UK throws it in the EU’s face down the line with a “remember when you did XYZ”, the EU’s equally pithy response is going to be “remember how we admitted we made a mistake and reversed it within hours”.

It’s really difficult to see how something that was reversed within hours with a mea culpa is going to become the source of long term angst. A border needs to go up first, for it to become an issue. It never did. Some Irexiteers might make hay of it for a little while, but for how long will it resonate?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:03 am

I have found it quite amusing to read all the UK bashing since the end of the transition, what is happening know is quite what I expected and have said that it would in past posts within these hollowed threads on Brexit that there will be disruptions until people become more aware on the new operating construct of trade between UK/EU. Just have to put a few misconceptions from my POV across to the current situation. You would have to be pretty naive to think there would have been no problems but the hyperbole and magnification coming from EU nationalism is quite amusing on how you bring up every little thing from something that was quite expected.
The UK is now entered a phase were there are quite fundamental changes to how our economy is going to operate and that these initial hardships facing business in the long run will be more beneficial to the country over time, soon our economy will change business will look for new opportunities and with new opportunities the UK economy will become more and more less reliant on the EU for both exports as well as imports. Yes, there has been a problem because of the way the EU integrated itself within all aspects of the UK economy and we have become over dependant on the EU as a bloc with the freedom of movement of goods, but what people fail to realise is it’s an adjustment period from the old to new and it will soon pass for those that want to continue exporting to the EU. What the country is going thru is the old idiom “short term pain for long term gain” We are seeing just how the EU treats its friends when interests no longer align, the pain we are going through in the short term to import and export via a Customs framework will eventually be replaced by the freedoms their new knowledge will allow in helping to broaden their horizons to the world outside the EU.

As to joining the CPTPP it very much aligns us on why the UK left the EU, there seems to be some confusion that the UK is trading in one bloc for another the EU is fundamentally different from CPTPP one is a bloc of nations entering into a more trade agreement between nations whereas the EU is a customs union. With CPTPP we are not contributing to another Parliament, it has no civil or criminal Court, no commissioners with political power with supremacy over national laws, no contributions to other countries budgets, no "ever closer Union", no slow transfer of national sovereignty to an eventual United States of Asia and Pacific.

As to the EU invocation of Article 16 I think OA260 is right, of the rare EU misstep will have more far-reaching consequences for NI. Even though that the EU says that the NI is part of the EU customs area it goes to show the hypocrisy there is a vast difference between what the EU was willing to do to protect the EU interests to what the UKGov were doing with the IMB, which did not put up a hard border between North/South but was respecting the trade between NI and the greater UK internal market which respects NI and the Belfast Agreement. Time will tell if they have short memories or not when the Stormont has to decide to kept the EU single market or full stay aligned with rUK
 
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:48 pm

OA260 wrote:
'It was almost Trumpian': Criticism of EU despite U-turn on NI vaccine controls

Criticism of the European Union is mounting after its short-lived move to override part of the Brexit deal on Northern Ireland over export controls on Covid-19 vaccines.

UK prime minister Boris Johnson was urged by the North’s first minister Arlene Foster on Saturday to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol, after Brussels invoked a clause to prevent shipments of jabs entering the UK in an “incredible act of hostility”.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/eu-u ... 72969.html

It seems this has opened a can of worms.


Well would you look at that - people who didn't give two hoots about Boris threatening to use Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol literally two weeks ago are suddenly deeply concerned when the EU Commission threatens to use Article 16. Nationalism is a funny old business, isn't it?

Reminder: That Boris Johnson threatened to trigger Article 16 two weeks ago
"If there are problems that we believe are disproportionate, then we will have no hesitation in invoking Article 16," the PM said.

Boris Johnson was among the first people to express “grave concerns” over the EU’s move to invoke Article 16 last night as the vaccine dispute threatened to spill over. The DUP’s Westminster leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson put to him in the House of Commons: “The Prime Minister promised us that Northern Ireland would continue to have access to the UK internal market, yet in my constituency consumers are facing empty supermarket shelves, they can’t get parcels delivered from Great Britain. Small businesses can’t bring in spare parts and raw materials into Northern Ireland from Great Britain, steel importers are facing tariffs, and other problems as a result of the Northern Ireland protocol. The trader support service is welcome, but it isn’t the solution alone. We need direct government intervention to deal with this now.”

Boris Johnson replied: “I can tell the right honourable gentleman that at the moment goods are flowing effectively and in normal volumes between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and so far no lorries have been turned back. Yes, of course there are teething problems. What I can say, what I can confirm to him, is that if there are problems that we believe are disproportionate, then we will have no hesitation in invoking Article 16.”


https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/polit ... ago/30/01/


sabenapilot wrote:
Oh, I'm sure the press on the British isles is very eager to hand out ample can openers to all those who like to be fed more emotional nonsense and further analysis till the absurd even. What else would they do over the weekend? Surely not write about the macro-economic successes of Brexit so far, because then it would be empty pages throughout. ;)


See my take on this is the opposite: the British Press has spent 30 years "crying wolf" about the EU. Now that the EU has actually done something stupid (and since walked it back) I don't really see the press having much ammunition. Sure, their readers will read it and be angry. And probably tweet something about being oppressed by the "EUSSR", but I'm having a hard time believing that this won't all be forgotten about by March. I'm yet to be convinced that the average reader of The Express knows very much about the Northern Ireland Protocol. :D

IMO all the Article 16 and Vaccine nonsense is pure hyperbole to distract from what's actually happening on the ground.
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:16 pm

So today, Monday the 1st of Feb, is the day that the EU's grace period for customs matters at the UK border ends. Going to be interesting to watch this...mess step up a gear.

We're finally starting to see some pushback against the UK Government's repeated claims that all brexit related import/export issues are teething issues

Road Haulage Association calls on government for 'easement' as transport struggles with Brexit

The UK government and those describing Brexit-related supply chain troubles as “teething problems”, are facing mounting criticism.. And spokesperson for the Road Haulage Association (RHA) Paul Mummery told The Loadstar the problems would cost businesses money and people their jobs. “Pushing the line that it’s ‘teething problems’ is to downplay the situation’s severity, and does an injustice to those ‘at the coal face’,” he said. “Where we are now is a consequence of how government mismanaged Brexit preparations. There’s been an abundance of foot dragging and it’s very clear to us drivers have not been anywhere near the top of the agenda.”

While Mr Mummery agrees with the timeline, he said the current situation is far more severe than some are willing to admit. “The situation is disastrous and everyone is on an incredibly short but steep learning curve – and by everyone, I mean drivers, forwarders, government, hauliers and everyone in between,” he said.

“Compounding this is that we are currently experiencing very low volumes, disguising how the changes will really impact when volumes creep back up. And they will, because demand can only go back up, and as that happens the rate of increase will outpace the rate at which business is learning, meaning demand will be outpacing business knowledge.” The RHA is calling to government, ‘we desperately need an easement, or implementation period’ to reduce the strain on a supply chain and logistics sector being asked to flex in ways it hasn’t had to in the past.”


https://theloadstar.com/rha-calls-on-go ... th-brexit/

I'm curious as to what kind of easement they're wanting. Obviously they are right to lobby on behalf of their members but I'm not sure what realistic action they can expect to be taken. HMRC are essentially waving nearly everything through at the moment - with the UK's grace period being six months (five now). It's not like the government is about to swallow their pride and rejoin the customs union and the Withdrawal Agreement and FTA aren't open for negotiation. The Hauliers are in a really difficult spot - completely at the mercy of everyone else.

Completely unsurprisingly, longer EU-UK or UK-EU trips for hauliers due to long customs delays means there is likely a coming shortage of capacity:


Fears that post-Brexit regime may lead to trailer shortage and higher rates

Post-Brexit regulations are generating fears of trailer shortages and surging freight rates that could resemble those seen across ocean container supply chains. Sources have told The Loadstar EU-based truck drivers are refusing to come to the UK unless there’s a back load, or the importer covers the cost of the empty return leg.

They are citing additional time and heightened bureaucracy, with concerns that as volumes pick up, so too will delays and rates. “No one can argue that volumes are down, the RHA [Road Haulage Association] is reporting a 20-30% drop on the yearly average,” one source said. “Even when things pick up, I cannot see it getting any easier. The biggest challenge then will not be customs formalities but persuading drivers to move goods here when they can get the same rates for less time on an intra-EU trip.”


The laws of supply and demand would suggest that intra EU rates (freight costs) will fall whilst EU-UK rates will rise.

https://theloadstar.com/fears-that-post ... her-rates/

Looks like Nigel Farridge (and therefore Express readers?) is a bit unhappy about fishing still. Some fishermen are even blaming him!

'So awful!' Furious Nigel Farage rages at Boris Johnson's deal as fishing uprising erupts
NIGEL FARAGE says he has been blamed by fishermen for the failings of Boris Johnson's Brexit deal as he lambasted the terms of the EU trade agreement.

Speaking to Express.co.uk, the former MEP and Brexit Party leader described the deal for fisheries as "so awful it's not true". He accused the Prime Minister of betraying the coastal communities who voted for Brexit in 2016 and helped secure his huge Commons majority in the 2019 general election. The lifelong eurosceptic told this website: "The fishing deal, it's so awful it's not true.

"We still have French, Dutch, Belgium trawlers fishing up to six miles from the Kent shoreline in pretty much an unregulated manner, and there isn't much we can do about it. That's unacceptable. "We still have the factory ships operating in the Channel catching hundreds of thousands a day of herrings, mackerel, all those fish that make up vital parts of the food chain."

Despite the MEP being critical of the deal himself, Mr Farage told Express.co.uk fishermen had turned on him in outrage. "I've even been abused," he said. Surprised at blame being attributed to him, he added he tells fisheries: "Hang on guys, I wouldn't have negotiated this."


https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... is-johnson


Arion640 wrote:
But you could argue the EU caused brexit.


No, you couldn't do so credibly.

Arion640 wrote:
The point was made on UK TV this morning that we already have trade deals in some form with many of these countries - examples being new trade deals with Australia and New Zealand should be signed in the coming months.


Would you care to tell me - someone who is a New Zealand citizen - what specific benefits for UK exporters an FTA with New Zealand would bring.

olle wrote:
What will this mean for the UK GDP figures?


Can't be good. Meanwhile the volume of goods from the UK into Irish Ports down 50%. That won't be helpful for employment figures in Hollyhead, Liverpool and Fishguard.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0 ... d-britain/

OA260 wrote:
She is certainly getting a bashing from this Scottish guy

https://twitter.com/socialm85897394/sta ... 91136?s=21


Why would anyone care what Andrew Neil thinks? It's not as if he's bathed in credibility.

tommy1808 wrote:
OA260 wrote:


TIM STANLEY ... few peoples opinion on the issue could be less relevant than his. A hardline Brexiteer with a hard on for today's Trumpism Republican party.....


How very "progressive" of him. ;)
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:15 pm

zkojq wrote:
So today, Monday the 1st of Feb, is the day that the EU's grace period for customs matters at the UK border ends. Going to be interesting to watch this...mess step up a gear.

We're finally starting to see some pushback against the UK Government's repeated claims that all brexit related import/export issues are teething issues

Road Haulage Association calls on government for 'easement' as transport struggles with Brexit

The UK government and those describing Brexit-related supply chain troubles as “teething problems”, are facing mounting criticism.. And spokesperson for the Road Haulage Association (RHA) Paul Mummery told The Loadstar the problems would cost businesses money and people their jobs. “Pushing the line that it’s ‘teething problems’ is to downplay the situation’s severity, and does an injustice to those ‘at the coal face’,” he said. “Where we are now is a consequence of how government mismanaged Brexit preparations. There’s been an abundance of foot dragging and it’s very clear to us drivers have not been anywhere near the top of the agenda.”

While Mr Mummery agrees with the timeline, he said the current situation is far more severe than some are willing to admit. “The situation is disastrous and everyone is on an incredibly short but steep learning curve – and by everyone, I mean drivers, forwarders, government, hauliers and everyone in between,” he said.

“Compounding this is that we are currently experiencing very low volumes, disguising how the changes will really impact when volumes creep back up. And they will, because demand can only go back up, and as that happens the rate of increase will outpace the rate at which business is learning, meaning demand will be outpacing business knowledge.” The RHA is calling to government, ‘we desperately need an easement, or implementation period’ to reduce the strain on a supply chain and logistics sector being asked to flex in ways it hasn’t had to in the past.”


https://theloadstar.com/rha-calls-on-go ... th-brexit/

I'm curious as to what kind of easement they're wanting. Obviously they are right to lobby on behalf of their members but I'm not sure what realistic action they can expect to be taken. HMRC are essentially waving nearly everything through at the moment - with the UK's grace period being six months (five now). It's not like the government is about to swallow their pride and rejoin the customs union and the Withdrawal Agreement and FTA aren't open for negotiation. The Hauliers are in a really difficult spot - completely at the mercy of everyone else.

Completely unsurprisingly, longer EU-UK or UK-EU trips for hauliers due to long customs delays means there is likely a coming shortage of capacity:


Fears that post-Brexit regime may lead to trailer shortage and higher rates

Post-Brexit regulations are generating fears of trailer shortages and surging freight rates that could resemble those seen across ocean container supply chains. Sources have told The Loadstar EU-based truck drivers are refusing to come to the UK unless there’s a back load, or the importer covers the cost of the empty return leg.

They are citing additional time and heightened bureaucracy, with concerns that as volumes pick up, so too will delays and rates. “No one can argue that volumes are down, the RHA [Road Haulage Association] is reporting a 20-30% drop on the yearly average,” one source said. “Even when things pick up, I cannot see it getting any easier. The biggest challenge then will not be customs formalities but persuading drivers to move goods here when they can get the same rates for less time on an intra-EU trip.”


The laws of supply and demand would suggest that intra EU rates (freight costs) will fall whilst EU-UK rates will rise.

https://theloadstar.com/fears-that-post ... her-rates/

Looks like Nigel Farridge (and therefore Express readers?) is a bit unhappy about fishing still. Some fishermen are even blaming him!

'So awful!' Furious Nigel Farage rages at Boris Johnson's deal as fishing uprising erupts
NIGEL FARAGE says he has been blamed by fishermen for the failings of Boris Johnson's Brexit deal as he lambasted the terms of the EU trade agreement.

Speaking to Express.co.uk, the former MEP and Brexit Party leader described the deal for fisheries as "so awful it's not true". He accused the Prime Minister of betraying the coastal communities who voted for Brexit in 2016 and helped secure his huge Commons majority in the 2019 general election. The lifelong eurosceptic told this website: "The fishing deal, it's so awful it's not true.

"We still have French, Dutch, Belgium trawlers fishing up to six miles from the Kent shoreline in pretty much an unregulated manner, and there isn't much we can do about it. That's unacceptable. "We still have the factory ships operating in the Channel catching hundreds of thousands a day of herrings, mackerel, all those fish that make up vital parts of the food chain."

Despite the MEP being critical of the deal himself, Mr Farage told Express.co.uk fishermen had turned on him in outrage. "I've even been abused," he said. Surprised at blame being attributed to him, he added he tells fisheries: "Hang on guys, I wouldn't have negotiated this."


https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... is-johnson


Arion640 wrote:
But you could argue the EU caused brexit.


No, you couldn't do so credibly.

Arion640 wrote:
The point was made on UK TV this morning that we already have trade deals in some form with many of these countries - examples being new trade deals with Australia and New Zealand should be signed in the coming months.


Would you care to tell me - someone who is a New Zealand citizen - what specific benefits for UK exporters an FTA with New Zealand would bring.

olle wrote:
What will this mean for the UK GDP figures?


Can't be good. Meanwhile the volume of goods from the UK into Irish Ports down 50%. That won't be helpful for employment figures in Hollyhead, Liverpool and Fishguard.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0 ... d-britain/

OA260 wrote:
She is certainly getting a bashing from this Scottish guy

https://twitter.com/socialm85897394/sta ... 91136?s=21


Why would anyone care what Andrew Neil thinks? It's not as if he's bathed in credibility.

tommy1808 wrote:
OA260 wrote:


TIM STANLEY ... few peoples opinion on the issue could be less relevant than his. A hardline Brexiteer with a hard on for today's Trumpism Republican party.....


How very "progressive" of him. ;)


I think a FTA with New Zealand would be very useful to help your emerging market develop.
 
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:06 pm

Tugger wrote:
This "UK is stealing from us" crap is as bad and purely political as it gets. In fact based on how people here are posting I am completely positive that if it was the UK plant that was having issue the Eu would in no way try to help or allow support from "their" plants. It really is pretty disgusting. And coming from an American who has lived in and with disgust for years now, that's saying something.

The whole UK Brexit thing may be as dumb as it gets and the Brexiteers equally so but Brexit has also brought out the ugly side of a lot of Europeans sadly.
I my opinion.


I know I may be viewed by some here as an EU apologist, but I felt back in *NOVEMBER* there was something fishy about the whole "we got the Oxford vaccine before the EU because it's British and Brexit blah blah blah"...

I also find something fishy about the way the reaction to a politcal bumbling - which was after all very quickly retracted before anything was carried out - became something *SO MANY* seemed to suddenly care *SO PASSIONATELY* about.

I can't help but feel that the Brexit/Tory PR machine is behind a lot of this FUD - yet again.
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:09 pm

Arion640 wrote:

I think a FTA with New Zealand would be very useful to help your emerging market develop.


For clarity‘s sake:

“An emerging market economy is the economy of a developing nation that is becoming more engaged with global markets as it grows. Countries classified as emerging market economies are those with some, but not all, of the characteristics of a developed market.”

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/em ... conomy.asp

NZ isn’t an “emerging market”; it’s economic indicators are on par with the UK’s, with the added benefit of a higher quality of life. Generally a good idea to know what a term means before using it.

That aside, this came up during Liz Truss’ appearance on Andrew Matt’s show yesterday. Made for an interesting watch.

TL;DR version: The UK government thinks a UK-NZ FTA could leave the UK GBP200 million poorer.

Full exchange here:

“AM: So we don’t know what this would do on GDP. The reason I might be a little suspicious is that you’ve done trade deals with New Zealand and Australia, or you’re about to do so, and if you look at your government’s own figures the effect on GDP is really, really small. Indeed, on New Zealand your own figure says we might actually be poorer as a result of doing this free trade deal. Why would we do a free trade deal that would make us poorer?

LT: That isn’t true. What all of these deals do is they give new opportunities to British business that they don’t have before, by lowering barriers, by making it easier to export their goods. And you can make –

AM: I’m sorry, you say isn’t true, but your own government says, and I quote, ‘the impact of a UK-New Zealand trade agreement would be limited, with a central estimate of minus nought point one per cent in scenario two, equivalent to a decrease of 200 million pounds. I ask you again, why would you do a free trade agreement that actually made us poorer?

LT: Andrew, that is a – one of many different scenarios that analyses the geographical impact. What it doesn’t look at is the future growth of these economies. And New Zealand is a relatively small country, but it’s a very influential country. And the important point is here we’re working with those leading democratic nations to help set global standards in areas like digital and data, challenge unfair trade practises from the likes of China, and build a better world trading system. And what we know is trade leads to growth. We know that the more open our economy is the faster it grows. And we know in the future it’s going to be the Asia-Pacific counties in particular where the big markets, the growing middle class markets are for British products. So no one’s got a crystal ball. Of course British businesses will need to reach out and take these opportunities. But what I am doing is I am creating the opportunity for low tariffs, removing those barriers so they can go out and do that.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/31012101.pdf
 
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:13 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-55871373?__twitter_impression=true

Positive news here for the UK post Brexit.


Australia poured cold water on that a couple of years ago. The UK isn’t a pacific nation and there are other Asian nations ahead of it in the line for entry. Has that changed? Admittedly haven’t been paying attention.

“Australia's trade minister Simon Birmingham said that it was unlikely the UK will have any likelihood of joining CPTPP in the short-to-medium term, largely because it is not in the Pacific, making the political nature of the UK's joining difficult.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit- ... hip-2019-2


Am I the only one who saw this story and wondered why, if trade areas are so great, was it so important to leave the biggest one which is literally on our doorstep?
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:21 pm

A101 wrote:
The UK is now entered a phase were there are quite fundamental changes to how our economy is going to operate and that these initial hardships facing business in the long run will be more beneficial to the country over time, soon our economy will change business will look for new opportunities and with new opportunities the UK economy will become more and more less reliant on the EU for both exports as well as imports. Yes, there has been a problem because of the way the EU integrated itself within all aspects of the UK economy and we have become over dependant on the EU as a bloc with the freedom of movement of goods, but what people fail to realise is it’s an adjustment period from the old to new and it will soon pass for those that want to continue exporting to the EU. What the country is going thru is the old idiom “short term pain for long term gain” We are seeing just how the EU treats its friends when interests no longer align, the pain we are going through in the short term to import and export via a Customs framework will eventually be replaced by the freedoms their new knowledge will allow in helping to broaden their horizons to the world outside the EU.


First welcome back, I didn't expect you to react to anything anymore.

Second: quite amusing and amazing to see that the horizon when Brexit will have economic benefits - even though you said it wouldn't and you didn't care because it was all about sovereignty - keeps on shifting. During the Brexit campaign, people were told the effect would be immediate, but now it is in the longer term I guess. And the pole signs keep on shifting backward. Just an observation.
The fundamental question which hasn't been answered by any Brexiteer: Given that all, if not the vast majority of nations, of the biggest trading partners, are in close proximity, where will this amazing growth come from? Given that the UK hasn't had natural resources to speak of and isn't a low-cost country - yet -, how will it gain a competitive edge?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:30 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
The UK is now entered a phase were there are quite fundamental changes to how our economy is going to operate and that these initial hardships facing business in the long run will be more beneficial to the country over time, soon our economy will change business will look for new opportunities and with new opportunities the UK economy will become more and more less reliant on the EU for both exports as well as imports. Yes, there has been a problem because of the way the EU integrated itself within all aspects of the UK economy and we have become over dependant on the EU as a bloc with the freedom of movement of goods, but what people fail to realise is it’s an adjustment period from the old to new and it will soon pass for those that want to continue exporting to the EU. What the country is going thru is the old idiom “short term pain for long term gain” We are seeing just how the EU treats its friends when interests no longer align, the pain we are going through in the short term to import and export via a Customs framework will eventually be replaced by the freedoms their new knowledge will allow in helping to broaden their horizons to the world outside the EU.


First welcome back, I didn't expect you to react to anything anymore.


I wasn't intending to :D

But its human nature to keep looking in and see what was happening on the site, just want to correct a few misconceptions from my POV, I wont be as prolific as I was was.

Dutchy wrote:
Second: quite amusing and amazing to see that the horizon when Brexit will have economic benefits - even though you said it wouldn't and you didn't care because it was all about sovereignty - keeps on shifting


Not sure where I ever said that leaving the EU would not have any economic benefits

Dutchy wrote:
. During the Brexit campaign, people were told the effect would be immediate, but now it is in the longer term I guess. And the pole signs keep on shifting backward. Just an observation.


Not sure why you are conflating what others have said to what I have posted, I acknowledged long ago in these threads that there will be disruptions until SME adjust to the new trading relationships and it could be many years before the UKGov change any existing laws that will be more inline with our interests to do so, I also pointed out that it might be the EU who moves first from that status quo in relation to the common existing laws hence my dislike for the LPF that the EU was insisting on

Dutchy wrote:
The fundamental question which hasn't been answered by any Brexiteer: Given that all, if not the vast majority of nations, of the biggest trading partners, are in close proximity, where will this amazing growth come from? Given that the UK hasn't had natural resources to speak of and isn't a low-cost country - yet -, how will it gain a competitive edge?


What are you talking about no natural resources, every country in the world has natural resource they just differ in what is available and what is cost efficient to retrieve when competing against other countries. but i do still keep reading that even though our economy will in theory not be as large as it could be if we remain in the EU, still some are suggesting once once we get over Coronaviruis that the economy will continue to grow, but like all forecasts they are theory and in 2020 the IMF suggested that the UK economy will grow faster than the Eurozone countries

Just some of the UK natural resources;

Coal, petroleum, natural gas, zinc, tin, limestone,iron ore, salt, slate clay, chalk, gypsum, lead, silica,arable land
 
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:39 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

I think a FTA with New Zealand would be very useful to help your emerging market develop.


For clarity‘s sake:

“An emerging market economy is the economy of a developing nation that is becoming more engaged with global markets as it grows. Countries classified as emerging market economies are those with some, but not all, of the characteristics of a developed market.”

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/em ... conomy.asp

NZ isn’t an “emerging market”; it’s economic indicators are on par with the UK’s, with the added benefit of a higher quality of life. Generally a good idea to know what a term means before using it.





Its funny how one defines an emerging market when you consider that China is the world's second-largest economy and home to the most billionaires, I certainly would not think that China or India are emerging or developing markets but it seems the IMF thinks so

The IMF defines emerging and developing Asia as China and India plus smaller but significant economies like Indonesia and Malaysia. These countries will grow 8.3 per cent this year. That bloc, now a third of the world economy, will drive post-COVID-19 growth to an even greater extent than before the pandemic.


https://www.theceomagazine.com/business ... c-outlook/
 
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:18 am

A101 wrote:

Its funny how one defines an emerging market when you consider that China is the world's second-largest economy and home to the most billionaires, I certainly would not think that China or India are emerging or developing markets but it seems the IMF thinks so

The IMF defines emerging and developing Asia as China and India plus smaller but significant economies like Indonesia and Malaysia. These countries will grow 8.3 per cent this year. That bloc, now a third of the world economy, will drive post-COVID-19 growth to an even greater extent than before the pandemic.


https://www.theceomagazine.com/business ... c-outlook/


No, it isn’t. There’s objective definitions for all of these terms. It goes beyond gross GDP and other incomplete indicators.

Whether people who throw those terms around have the intellectual curiosity or ability to inquire or understand them is a separate matter.

NZ isn’t an emerging market by any definition.
 
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:24 am

The decision came after Mid and East Antrim borough council agreed on Monday night to remove 12 of its staff at Larne port with immediate effect, following an “upsurge in sinister and menacing behaviour in recent weeks”.

A spokesman for Stormont’s Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (Daera) said: “On the basis of information received today and pending further discussions with the PSNI [Police Service of Northern Ireland], Daera has decided in the interests of the wellbeing of staff to temporarily suspend physical inspections of products of animal origin at Larne and Belfast.


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... y-concerns
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:24 am

I think UK post Brexit will need to get used to be a third country in EU view.

I think the news about Germany sending Nurses to Portugal, EU fighting for our older generation life etc will change the way that most people look at EU.

Each crisis shows for EU citizen that their own country getting too small for protecting them, even countries with rather big populations like France, Gemany, Spain and Poland. The crisis, where Brexit is probably a crisis speeding up things, bring us as Brexiteers rightfully say closer to a federate state. The irony is that without Brexit that would take much longer time.

ROI might be different. But will ROI forget soon that EU gave them power against UK when it normally should have been waiting begging to the master to arrive? ROI used EU pretty efficient in negotiating NI Brexit pretty much its way.
 
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OA260
Posts: 25581
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:30 am

olle wrote:
The decision came after Mid and East Antrim borough council agreed on Monday night to remove 12 of its staff at Larne port with immediate effect, following an “upsurge in sinister and menacing behaviour in recent weeks”.

A spokesman for Stormont’s Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (Daera) said: “On the basis of information received today and pending further discussions with the PSNI [Police Service of Northern Ireland], Daera has decided in the interests of the wellbeing of staff to temporarily suspend physical inspections of products of animal origin at Larne and Belfast.


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... y-concerns


Just goes to show and proves my points. The situation in NI is only one step away from serious escalation. Especially when article 16 is played around with.
 
GDB
Posts: 14322
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:46 am

olle wrote:
I think UK post Brexit will need to get used to be a third country in EU view.

I think the news about Germany sending Nurses to Portugal, EU fighting for our older generation life etc will change the way that most people look at EU.

Each crisis shows for EU citizen that their own country getting too small for protecting them, even countries with rather big populations like France, Gemany, Spain and Poland. The crisis, where Brexit is probably a crisis speeding up things, bring us as Brexiteers rightfully say closer to a federate state. The irony is that without Brexit that would take much longer time.

ROI might be different. But will ROI forget soon that EU gave them power against UK when it normally should have been waiting begging to the master to arrive? ROI used EU pretty efficient in negotiating NI Brexit pretty much its way.


Didn't you know? 'Two World Wars and One World Cup?'
I agree with most, including many who loathe Johnson, that the EU massively cocked up on vaccines, however they did pretty damn soon admit their mistake on their proposed action and retract.
Compare and contrast with the UK, last week, there were days when we had the worst death rate per capita, not just in Europe either.
It's great that the UK vaccine effort is going so well, I'm getting my first jab tomorrow, since it is, unlike the billions wasted on the useless track and trace, in the hand of experts of the NHS, not a collection of Johnson's grubby mates and funders.

Note that the Republic of Ireland, expressing their dismay at the EU, have in effect more leverage with them, little ROI, which has been treated with such contempt by the Johnson's government, witness his attempts to invoke illegal laws against them, just like he did with parliament in 2019, an act found later by the UK Supreme Court to be illegal, c'mon Brextiteers, where's your Parliament as primary then?

No apologies for the major foul ups that has given the UK the worst death rate in Europe, what was the most common headline across the press (80% Tory/Brexit supporting, as they are mostly owned by offshore tax dodgers), last year? 'Government Ignored SAGE Advice'. (SAGE being the scientific body advising the government).

As for trade, there are a lot of people who voted leave, running businesses, who bitterly regret it.
Well they trusted a bunch of obvious charlatans, Farage, Johnson, Gove etc.
After decades of usually lies about the EU from those symbols of accurate reporting and decency, the British tabloid press.

Too many in the UK have been brought up on blaming johnny foreigner for everything, well I guess it beats taking responsibility for our own mistakes.
How does this sound abroad, well last week Macron made a rather silly pronouncement in repeating a mistake by a German publication about the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine on the over 65's, he was I think reacting, (badly), in the failure of the one being developed by France's own Pasteur institute.
No excuses for him but that sort of nationalistic blame shifting attitude was at the heart of the whole Leave project.
Not nice to be on the other end, is it?

While again it takes a major mistake to unite, as the EU did last week, the political divide in N.I. I do think that some in the EU just remember Johnson from before he was well known here.
In the late 90's he was a 'correspondent' for the Euro Skeptic Daily Telegraph, (now fully swivel eyed), the outright and deliberate lies he printed about the EU were so many, so insulting to the intelligence, it even got him sacked by that paper, never a friend of the EU.
'How did this obvious clown become PM' they must ask.

The UK government took a punt on ordering multiple vaccines, they got that right, well done, glad they did since it stands out as the one thing they have done right in all of this.
Hence why I think there has been a lack of crowing at the EU over their bad mistake, since it came not long after we passed the 100,000 dead mark, around 30,000 more than in those lodestars of Brexit imagination and 'memory', the 1940/1 Blitz and 1944/45 V-1/V-2 attacks.
Johnson looked broken when that milestone was passed, don't expect contrition though.

Finally, back last April when there was a perceived lack of ventilators in the UK, Germany, who had plenty, had their Army offer up dozens for our use.
Bet that wasn't too well reported here.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 10331
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:37 am

Fact is the UK, free of EU control, did get working vaccines, the EU did not. And if the UK got some destined for the EU, it is even better. UK first, that is what Brexiteers wanted and it already shows to be a huge success.
 
marcelh
Posts: 1501
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:52 am

seahawk wrote:
Fact is the UK, free of EU control, did get working vaccines, the EU did not. And if the UK got some destined for the EU, it is even better. UK first, that is what Brexiteers wanted and it already shows to be a huge success.


Only a shame that a lot of UK citizens did die because of COVID-19. IIRC, the death rate in the UK is worse compared to the EU.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:12 am

OA260 wrote:
olle wrote:
The decision came after Mid and East Antrim borough council agreed on Monday night to remove 12 of its staff at Larne port with immediate effect, following an “upsurge in sinister and menacing behaviour in recent weeks”.

A spokesman for Stormont’s Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (Daera) said: “On the basis of information received today and pending further discussions with the PSNI [Police Service of Northern Ireland], Daera has decided in the interests of the wellbeing of staff to temporarily suspend physical inspections of products of animal origin at Larne and Belfast.


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... y-concerns


Just goes to show and proves my points. The situation in NI is only one step away from serious escalation. Especially when article 16 is played around with.


This is my impression as well (of course without having any deep knowledge). What is interesting now is that point of control of a border if it is ROI/NI or NI/ rest of UK will only mean that different groups feel that they are loosing. This was the reason why UK and ROI inside EU was so critical. Even a ROI leaving EU would not solve it because then ROI and UK would not suddenly have a veto with equal weight.

The Article 16 I see will cause major problem. A question trying to solve a problem in another part of let say east EU or in this case public health between North of Scandinavia to Malta will mean that any question concerning any relationship with EU external borders will need to be verified with ROI. I see the probability for error very big.

Then we have on the other side a UK where a DUP do want to shoot down the whole GFA as principal combined with a Brexit Tory UK that want to see the border in Irish sea disappear ASAP.

My conclusion has been since 2016 that the only solution should be a united Ireland but now I see that the problems will just move from being shared EU UK to pure EU.
 
LJ
Posts: 5468
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:55 pm

zkojq wrote:
Can't be good. Meanwhile the volume of goods from the UK into Irish Ports down 50%. That won't be helpful for employment figures in Hollyhead, Liverpool and Fishguard.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0 ... d-britain/


You've missed the news that Stena Line is going to put 25% of the dockers it employs on furlough at Holyhead. At present it's just a temporary measure, however no end date given at the moment. Forgot to mention this has nothing to do with Brexit but 100% due to COVID-19 :sarcastic:

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/stena-line-furlough-quarter-dockers-19729736
 
User avatar
OA260
Posts: 25581
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:15 pm

LJ wrote:
zkojq wrote:
Can't be good. Meanwhile the volume of goods from the UK into Irish Ports down 50%. That won't be helpful for employment figures in Hollyhead, Liverpool and Fishguard.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0 ... d-britain/


You've missed the news that Stena Line is going to put 25% of the dockers it employs on furlough at Holyhead. At present it's just a temporary measure, however no end date given at the moment. Forgot to mention this has nothing to do with Brexit but 100% due to COVID-19 :sarcastic:

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/stena-line-furlough-quarter-dockers-19729736



They also had a cull back in April 2020.



Stena Line to furlough 600 employees in Britain and Ireland

Ferry firm also cutting 150 jobs due to a huge decline in bookings and freight volumes
Tue, Apr 7, 2020, 09:46

Ferry company Stena Line is to furlough 600 employees and make 150 redundant across Britain and Ireland.

Stena Line said the measure was an unavoidable response to the coronavirus crisis and its impact on travel and transport in Europe. It warned there could be more cost-cutting measures on the cards as the crisis continues.

www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-a ... -1.4223006

In fact Stena have been making losses on and off for various reasons since 1999 !
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:06 pm

February is here.

If it has been bad to export EU -> UK and UK -> EU has been bad;

Now the "grace period finnished yesterday and, it seems first (crisis)meeting booked for tomorrow.

------------------------


The Northern Ireland border is not facing “teething problems” but “significant issues," U.K. minister Michael Gove acknowledged Tuesday, following threats to staff performing post-Brexit checks at the border.

“In recent days, we've seen an increase in community tension,” Gove told MPs after port staff in Larne were kept away from work as local police investigate threats to their safety.

The Cabinet Office Minister cited issues at the border that he “would not describe as teething problems," a phrase previously used by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The problems, he said, “are significant issues which bear on the lives of people in Northern Ireland, which do need to be resolved.”

Gove flagged the short-lived nature of three and six-month waivers on checks for animal products like cheese and milk going into Northern Ireland from Great Britain, as well as fresh meat. Two weeks ago traders told MPs the end of grace periods will block supplies and lead to “less choice for consumers” in Northern Ireland.

“We do need to make sure that grace periods are extended,” Gove said, and “to make sure that supermarkets and traders can continue, as they are at the moment, to be able to supply consumers with the goods that they need.”

The U.K. is currently grappling with the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, negotiated as part of the U.K.’s Withdrawal Agreement from the EU in a bid to avoid a hard border between the Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

A video conference is planned tomorrow between Gove and European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič, who are both on a committee overseeing the protocol. The pair will discuss the situation at Northern Ireland's ports, and are set to be joined by Northern Ireland's First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... -problems/
 
bennett123
Posts: 10861
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:10 pm

How long does he want to extend the grace periods.

Is this what 'taking back control' looks like.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2360
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:50 pm

OA260 wrote:

Just goes to show and proves my points. The situation in NI is only one step away from serious escalation. Especially when article 16 is played around with.


The issue, by virtually all accounts, is the NIP itself, not the EU’s stupidity on article 16.

Probably as good time as any to remind Brexiteers about how they scoffed at the “seriousness” of a no deal / physical border.

There was Brexiteer Rees Mogg, with this gem:

“”Ireland would not be a free for all. It would be perfectly possible to continue with historic arrangements to ensure that there wasn’t a great loophole in the way people can get into the UK, to leave us in as bad a position as we are already in,” Rees-Mogg says.

“There would be our ability, as we had during the Troubles, to have people inspected. It’s not a border that everyone has to go through every day, but of course for security reasons during the Troubles, we kept a very close eye on the border, to try and stop gun-running and things like that.””

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -rees-mogg

Then there was Brexiteer Arlene Foster:

“During the campaign ahead of the UK’s referendum on EU membership in 2016, Brexiteers would frequently swat away warnings about the damage leaving the bloc would cause by claiming it was all part of a Remain plot they dubbed Project Fear.
...
This week, perhaps sensing the weight on London’s shoulders of the growing warnings surrounding a no-deal Brexit, Foster returned to the tried and trusted trope. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar was involved in “Project Fear, Mark Two”, she said.“

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/bre ... 3?mode=amp

The Article 16 move was stupid, but thanks to Ireland, the EU at least understood the nuance. When the commission overstepped, as they did with article 16, they were pulled back into line within hours. Contrast that with Brexiteers who just dismissed the seriousness of the issue outright.

But that’s by the by - now that we’ve established that the NIP is the problem, what do you think should happen? Only have three other options:

- Physical border (aka the Rees Mogg plan)
- Irexit
- United Ireland
 
GDB
Posts: 14322
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:51 pm

bennett123 wrote:
How long does he want to extend the grace periods.

Is this what 'taking back control' looks like.


Allow me to translate;
It's really means giving the UK government the ability to end legislation protecting employees (that the UK when it was run by rational people were a part of it's contribution to the EU), standards on food, (yum! All those food products from the US that don't meet EU standards, again guess who was a driver in these back in the day, not good news for British farmers either), it means not being part of the EU's attempts to crack down on tax havens, wonder why the wealthy Brexiteers (who have the gall to label anyone, no their background, 'one of the Elite').

Those are just a few.
 
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OA260
Posts: 25581
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:07 pm

olle wrote:
February is here.

If it has been bad to export EU -> UK and UK -> EU has been bad;

Now the "grace period finnished yesterday and, it seems first (crisis)meeting booked for tomorrow.

------------------------


The Northern Ireland border is not facing “teething problems” but “significant issues," U.K. minister Michael Gove acknowledged Tuesday, following threats to staff performing post-Brexit checks at the border.

“In recent days, we've seen an increase in community tension,” Gove told MPs after port staff in Larne were kept away from work as local police investigate threats to their safety.

The Cabinet Office Minister cited issues at the border that he “would not describe as teething problems," a phrase previously used by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The problems, he said, “are significant issues which bear on the lives of people in Northern Ireland, which do need to be resolved.”

Gove flagged the short-lived nature of three and six-month waivers on checks for animal products like cheese and milk going into Northern Ireland from Great Britain, as well as fresh meat. Two weeks ago traders told MPs the end of grace periods will block supplies and lead to “less choice for consumers” in Northern Ireland.

“We do need to make sure that grace periods are extended,” Gove said, and “to make sure that supermarkets and traders can continue, as they are at the moment, to be able to supply consumers with the goods that they need.”

The U.K. is currently grappling with the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, negotiated as part of the U.K.’s Withdrawal Agreement from the EU in a bid to avoid a hard border between the Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

A video conference is planned tomorrow between Gove and European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič, who are both on a committee overseeing the protocol. The pair will discuss the situation at Northern Ireland's ports, and are set to be joined by Northern Ireland's First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... -problems/


So we have gone from a position of Northern Ireland is not an issue or important and to move on to now where its thrust back into the front of the main issue just hours later. After 25 years living on the Island of Ireland living in both Unionist and Nationalist areas I can tell you that it will dominate this subject for months if not years. It has always dominated British and Irish politics. To add another spanner to the works yesterday the Irish PM said that having a referendum on a United Ireland is at least 5 years away and not happening anytime soon. Probably because it would trigger full scale armed conflict again so the status quo will remain .

The best thing in the video call will be for both sides to come to an agreement that eases the tensions and concerns of the people of Northern Ireland.
 
AeroVega
Posts: 373
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:32 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:02 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
But that’s by the by - now that we’ve established that the NIP is the problem, what do you think should happen? Only have three other options:

- Physical border (aka the Rees Mogg plan)
- Irexit
- United Ireland


Irexit and United Ireland are not mutually exclusive and may be the best solution for all involved.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:20 pm

AeroVega wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
But that’s by the by - now that we’ve established that the NIP is the problem, what do you think should happen? Only have three other options:

- Physical border (aka the Rees Mogg plan)
- Irexit
- United Ireland


Irexit and United Ireland are not mutually exclusive and may be the best solution for all involved.

Will uk respect the sovereign united ireland after irexit?

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