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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:29 pm

olle wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
But that’s by the by - now that we’ve established that the NIP is the problem, what do you think should happen? Only have three other options:

- Physical border (aka the Rees Mogg plan)
- Irexit
- United Ireland


Irexit and United Ireland are not mutually exclusive and may be the best solution for all involved.

Will uk respect the sovereign united ireland after irexit?


If Ireland North and South vote one day for a United Ireland then yes of course if you read the GFA its in there. The ROI removed articles 2&3 based on that agreement. I have a vote and currently I would vote for the status quo. Part of my decision on that is we dont need that upheaval right now with armed conflict and secondly the ROI could not afford it.


Meanwhile the EU have pulled its workers from NI ports while the threat hangs over them. Just another reason why that video call needs to go well !


EU asks NI staff not to attend work, condemns threats

The European Commission has strongly condemned threats against staff working in Northern Ireland ports and said it had asked EU officials working alongside their Northern Ireland counterparts under the Withdrawal Agreement not to attend work today.

Police in Northern Ireland are to hold talks later today with partner agencies after physical Brexit checks at Belfast and Larne ports were suspended amid safety concerns.

www.rte.ie/news/2021/0202/1194523-north ... -ports-eu/
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2360
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:48 pm

AeroVega wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
But that’s by the by - now that we’ve established that the NIP is the problem, what do you think should happen? Only have three other options:

- Physical border (aka the Rees Mogg plan)
- Irexit
- United Ireland


Irexit and United Ireland are not mutually exclusive and may be the best solution for all involved.


Ok, the following options:

- Physical border (aka the Rees Mogg plan)
- Irexit and United Ireland
- Irexit and no United Ireland
- United Ireland in the EU

Best solution for all? Debatable. There’s not a whole lot to suggest that anything close to a majority of Irish people think Irexit is a good idea. But it’s a brexiteer wet dream, so let’s include it for kicks and giggles. “Valid opinions” etc.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:00 pm

OA260 wrote:
olle wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

Irexit and United Ireland are not mutually exclusive and may be the best solution for all involved.

Will uk respect the sovereign united ireland after irexit?


If Ireland North and South vote one day for a United Ireland then yes of course if you read the GFA its in there. The ROI removed articles 2&3 based on that agreement. I have a vote and currently I would vote for the status quo. Part of my decision on that is we dont need that upheaval right now with armed conflict and secondly the ROI could not afford it.


Meanwhile the EU have pulled its workers from NI ports while the threat hangs over them. Just another reason why that video call needs to go well !


EU asks NI staff not to attend work, condemns threats

The European Commission has strongly condemned threats against staff working in Northern Ireland ports and said it had asked EU officials working alongside their Northern Ireland counterparts under the Withdrawal Agreement not to attend work today.

Police in Northern Ireland are to hold talks later today with partner agencies after physical Brexit checks at Belfast and Larne ports were suspended amid safety concerns.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0202/119452 ... -ports-eu/


Why are we beating around the bush here?

The video call will only go “well” if the EU agrees to drop NIP inspection protocols on NI imports from the GB AND doesn’t ask RoI to implement checks on the island. In essence, transfer all the costs and risks of Brexit on the island of Ireland to the EU and/or RoI.

The EU may agree - temporarily - in the name of political expedience. It may not, noting that this entire thing is only an issue because of Brexit and the nature of the Brexit the UK has chosen, and apply the Pottery Barn rule (“you broke it; you buy it”).

Lest we forget, Ireland was the prime mover behind the NIP - remember that Varadkar-Johnson walkabout that led to the agreement?
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:04 pm

From the EU it looks like if the DUP and Gove colluded just to try to get what they did not get with IMB Bill....
I guess the EU may keep that in mind while the UK hope to get a deal in financial services
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:28 pm

Proof a United Ireland could never ever happen. I liked the signs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55901429
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:39 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Proof a United Ireland could never ever happen. I liked the signs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55901429


Cool.

Suggests we have a clear and apparently acceptable solution to this latest NIP issue: a physical border on the island of Ireland.

Come to think of it, Brexiteer Rees Mogg has already suggested that, so should go down a treat with Brexiteers.

What could possibly go wrong?
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:47 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Proof a United Ireland could never ever happen. I liked the signs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55901429


I think it will be about 20-30 years down the line when demography changes and it will need the full consent of the whole of NI on both sides. I think the last few days have actually reinforced the status quo because when people feel threatened they go back to their hardline views.

Id go so far to say that a special EU department should be created who have top people with intimate knowledge of the delicate situation on the ground. Seeing as this is going to be a long term issue it needs special treatment. The EU wanted a office in Belfast but maybe Boris did them a favour by refusing this as it would probably be the focus of riots and protests anytime something goes wrong.
Its also weird that people from outside think that DUP and the Boris led government are even that close. Unionism feel betrayed by Boris so no love lost there.


The vaccine row was a reminder that every dispute over the Irish border has the potential to destabilise, writes David Blevins.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-eus ... l-12203655
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:51 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Proof a United Ireland could never ever happen. I liked the signs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55901429


Cool.

Suggests we have a clear and apparently acceptable solution to this latest NIP issue: a physical border on the island of Ireland.

Come to think of it, Brexiteer Rees Mogg has already suggested that, so should go down a treat with Brexiteers.

What could possibly go wrong?


Thats not the answer is it - although something will have to give.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:54 pm

OA260 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Proof a United Ireland could never ever happen. I liked the signs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55901429


I think it will be about 20-30 years down the line when demography changes and it will need the full consent of the whole of NI on both sides. I think the last few days have actually reinforced the status quo because when people feel threatened they go back to their hardline views.

Id go so far to say that a special EU department should be created who have top people with intimate knowledge of the delicate situation on the ground. Seeing as this is going to be a long term issue it needs special treatment. The EU wanted a office in Belfast but maybe Boris did them a favour by refusing this as it would probably be the focus of riots and protests anytime something goes wrong.
Its also weird that people from outside think that DUP and the Boris led government are even that close. Unionism feel betrayed by Boris so no love lost there.


The vaccine row was a reminder that every dispute over the Irish border has the potential to destabilise, writes David Blevins.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-eus ... l-12203655


What I didn’t realise is that there’s actually an opposition in the ROI for a united Ireland, the main argument being that they can’t afford it.

I agree 20-30 years could see a different landscape but for the next 5 years, i think it could be forgotten about.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:33 pm

Arion640 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Proof a United Ireland could never ever happen. I liked the signs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55901429


Cool.

Suggests we have a clear and apparently acceptable solution to this latest NIP issue: a physical border on the island of Ireland.

Come to think of it, Brexiteer Rees Mogg has already suggested that, so should go down a treat with Brexiteers.

What could possibly go wrong?


Thats not the answer is it - although something will have to give.


Not necessarily, no.

One viable option is for the EU to hold its line and state the obvious: that it’s the UK’s responsibility to implement the WA, including the NIP in NI. That includes protecting the staff - currently deemed to be at risk - while they go about doing their jobs. “Rule of Law”, etc.

In this case, nothing has to ‘give’, per se.

Whether the EU will go down that route remains to be seen. Certainly won’t be uncontroversial.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:36 pm

2016 many people that EU memership for ROI and UK was the enabler of the GFA.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:56 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
One viable option is for the EU to hold its line and state the obvious: that it’s the UK’s responsibility to implement the WA, including the NIP in NI. That includes protecting the staff - currently deemed to be at risk - while they go about doing their jobs. “Rule of Law”, etc.

In this case, nothing has to ‘give’, per se.

Whether the EU will go down that route remains to be seen. Certainly won’t be uncontroversial.


Another option is to require transports which require BCP inspection to route via Ireland. No problems with Unionist over there (though I doubt Unionist will like this solution). One has to remember that teh EU cannot make an exception for NI as they run the risk other third countries will want the same treatment. Moreover, how can the EU require BCP inspection for goods coming from the UK going to EU27 whilst it doesn't uphold this for NI? Tricky business for the EU.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:01 pm

Olddog wrote:
I guess the EU may keep that in mind while the UK hope to get a deal in financial services


The UK knows it lost the financial services the moment it started the negotiations. The EU cannot use this as a bargaining chip anymore. What the EU can do is postponing going to full border control on the mainland till July (and thus give Boris Johnson some good PR for the next few weeks).
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:26 pm

LJ wrote:
Olddog wrote:
I guess the EU may keep that in mind while the UK hope to get a deal in financial services


The UK knows it lost the financial services the moment it started the negotiations. The EU cannot use this as a bargaining chip anymore. What the EU can do is postponing going to full border control on the mainland till July (and thus give Boris Johnson some good PR for the next few weeks).



What you saying is basically that EU from Slovenia to Finland to Portugal eternal shall be negotiating NI peace. There is one agreed solution that is the less bad solution, having the border at sea. Any other solution is worse for ROI and NI that is EU interest. It should also be in UK and protestants in NI interest.
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:03 pm

A major escalation this evening :

DUP aims to undermine Northern Ireland Protocol

The DUP has announced this evening it will attempt to unite unionism to campaign against the Northern Ireland Protocol.

In its statement, the DUP warned that north-south relationships will not continue as normal.

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0202/119464 ... -protocol/

They seem to be coming under pressure from paramilitaries in East Belfast and Larne over the last 3 days.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:14 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
But that’s by the by - now that we’ve established that the NIP is the problem, what do you think should happen? Only have three other options:

- Physical border (aka the Rees Mogg plan)
- Irexit
- United Ireland


No it shows that the EU were going to misuse A16 for its own nationalistic reason at the expense of NI. Remember it was the EU that insisted that NI must remain part of the CU/SM and in less than a month Brussels was prepared to throw them under the bus, just goes to show that the whole EU point on the Irish border was just a bargaining chip and used as punishment against the UK and NI is collateral damage

As to the “Physical border (aka the Rees Mogg plan)” that would obviously be against the Belfast Agreement and no UKGov has seriously contemplated placing watch towers on the border again, but he did mention historic arrangements the GNIB have been randomly checking passports on bus and trains that cross the border for a number of years. Not far from what Rees Mogg was suggesting but woe betide if the UK suggested doing anything like that to what the ROI has been doing for a number of years

As to Irexit, that’s for the Republic to debate,United ireland is for the NI to decide.

But there was always a another option and one that was already in place and did not need for either side to submit themselves to the NIP as currently in place an electronic border

ElPistolero wrote:
Lest we forget, Ireland was the prime mover behind the NIP - remember that Varadkar-Johnson walkabout that led to the agreement?


Yes they only came up with that because the original WA could not get past UK Parliament and the second instance was the hostile Parliament with the Benn Act forced Johnson’s hand into accepting a bad deal for the UK.

Hence why I am not overly surprised the current situation has come up, I said on a number of occasions that a border down the Irish Sea could leave Unionists aggrieved and was dismissed by those on here
Last edited by A101 on Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:15 pm

DUP plays a very dangerous game. What is going to happen as a reaction to this, is anyone's guess. Returning of the troubles, uniting Ireland, Irexit, UK giving up the WA and thus choosing for a hard Brexit with hard borders. Or this will blow over and will be a return to "normal" in a month, showing DUP has less support and influence than thought.

It is a sad consequence of Brexit.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:27 pm

A101 wrote:
I have found it quite amusing to read all the UK bashing since the end of the transition, what is happening know is quite what I expected and have said that it would in past posts within these hollowed threads on Brexit that there will be disruptions until people become more aware on the new operating construct of trade between UK/EU.


Sorry but google can't help me find a post of yours where you predict various sector will have to simply kiss goodbye to basically all their exports (like shellfish industry and tour artists), care to point me to one ?
Seriously, you seems to treat this like if it was simply an adjustment variable. But even with experience of the operations, many businesses who were viable before brexit will not be anymore due to the added cost of the NTB. The livelihood of thousands of people is at stake.
Of course, I understand it's easier to just state big concept and never really look at practical consequences, that's brexiters in chief modus operandi for 5 years after all, and it worked pretty well for them. I wonder though, do you have an idea what could be the coming opportunities for the people working in the 2 sectors mentionned above ?

The threats against custom agents in NI-UK border is rather interesting though.
Can't recall if you were one of them A101 but I remember a lot of brexiter against May's backstop deal arguing the backstop was unecessary because a technological border would make the trick.
It's a shame they are so silent now they could put in place such invisible technological border between NI and GB !
Didn't you ever advocate such border operations was doable in time A101 ?
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:43 pm

Dutchy wrote:
It is a sad consequence of Brexit.


I would say it is a sad consequence of a dishonest UK and an incompetent EU. The UK is jumping at the first opportunity to dismantle the NIP and the EU gave them a convenient excuse to do it. I hope for Ireland that the storm settles soon.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:46 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
Didn't you ever advocate such border operations was doable in time A101 ?


A101 wrote:
But there was always a another option and one that was already in place and did not need for either side to submit themselves to the NIP as currently in place an electronic border


A101 still advocate it, even though nobody has shown where it actually works like that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:52 pm

OA260 wrote:
A major escalation this evening :

DUP aims to undermine Northern Ireland Protocol

The DUP has announced this evening it will attempt to unite unionism to campaign against the Northern Ireland Protocol.

In its statement, the DUP warned that north-south relationships will not continue as normal.

http://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0202 ... -protocol/

They seem to be coming under pressure from paramilitaries in East Belfast and Larne over the last 3 days.


I imagine this is the start of a protracted campaign for the DUP in getting ready for the next NI Assembly election in 20222 and to further to garner support for the removal of the NIP in 2024 when Stormont has a vote.

Yep you are correct about the consequences of the EU invoking A16, it will come back to haunt them
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:06 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
A101 wrote:
I have found it quite amusing to read all the UK bashing since the end of the transition, what is happening know is quite what I expected and have said that it would in past posts within these hollowed threads on Brexit that there will be disruptions until people become more aware on the new operating construct of trade between UK/EU.


Sorry but google can't help me find a post of yours where you predict various sector will have to simply kiss goodbye to basically all their exports (like shellfish industry and tour artists), care to point me to one ?

Seriously, you seems to treat this like if it was simply an adjustment variable. But even with experience of the operations, many businesses who were viable before brexit will not be anymore due to the added cost of the NTB. The livelihood of thousands of people is at stake.
Of course, I understand it's easier to just state big concept and never really look at practical consequences, that's brexiters in chief modus operandi for 5 years after all, and it worked pretty well for them. I wonder though, do you have an idea what could be the coming opportunities for the people working in the 2 sectors mentionned above ?



Stand by my statement, that it is an adjustment period on both sides of the border its the market that says whom will flourish and who will not, its up to the SME if whether or not they pass on the costs in thew new trading relationship and the consumer if they are prepared to accept those costs, you only have to go back through the threads and i have been consistent on that line

Grizzly410 wrote:

The threats against custom agents in NI-UK border is rather interesting though.
Can't recall if you were one of them A101 but I remember a lot of brexiter against May's backstop deal arguing the backstop was unecessary because a technological border would make the trick.

It's a shame they are so silent now they could put in place such invisible technological border between NI and GB !
Didn't you ever advocate such border operations was doable in time A101 ?


Yes was me who said it, its Brussels whom said it could not be done its Brussels implementing the rules at NI ports.

But if we went on your train of thought then both the EU/UK could scrap the NIP and go back to the status quo don't you think as until NI votes NI is still sovereign territory of the UK in which the EU agrees within the Belfast Agreement and the WA
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:09 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
It is a sad consequence of Brexit.


I would say it is a sad consequence of a dishonest UK and an incompetent EU. The UK is jumping at the first opportunity to dismantle the NIP and the EU gave them a convenient excuse to do it. I hope for Ireland that the storm settles soon.


Its not the position of the current UKGov its the position of a NI political party
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:17 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
Didn't you ever advocate such border operations was doable in time A101 ?


A101 wrote:
But there was always a another option and one that was already in place and did not need for either side to submit themselves to the NIP as currently in place an electronic border


A101 still advocate it, even though nobody has shown where it actually works like that.



The EU produced such a report on that, but the fundamental point of it was the need for cooperation from both sides to make it work. But as we know it was not in Brussels interests to cooperate as they then could not weaponise the Irish border for political purposes.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:12 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

Irexit and United Ireland are not mutually exclusive and may be the best solution for all involved.


Ok, the following options:

- Physical border (aka the Rees Mogg plan)
- Irexit and United Ireland
- Irexit and no United Ireland
- United Ireland in the EU

Best solution for all? Debatable. There’s not a whole lot to suggest that anything close to a majority of Irish people think Irexit is a good idea. But it’s a brexiteer wet dream, so let’s include it for kicks and giggles. “Valid opinions” etc.


Wet dream^2
- Irexit and United British Isle.


Oooh yes please. Lets take malta back while we’re at it and get big Liz to exercise her control over Canada :)
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:13 am

AeroVega wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
It is a sad consequence of Brexit.


I would say it is a sad consequence of a dishonest UK and an incompetent EU. The UK is jumping at the first opportunity to dismantle the NIP and the EU gave them a convenient excuse to do it. I hope for Ireland that the storm settles soon.


The UK seems to be heading into a political cold war with the EU.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:48 am

A101 wrote:
The EU produced such a report on that, but the fundamental point of it was the need for cooperation from both sides to make it work.


Could you point ot the report? Thanks.

A101 wrote:
But as we know it was not in Brussels interests to cooperate as they then could not weaponise the Irish border for political purposes.


That is your opinion, not supported by facts.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:22 am

A101 wrote:
OA260 wrote:
A major escalation this evening :

DUP aims to undermine Northern Ireland Protocol

The DUP has announced this evening it will attempt to unite unionism to campaign against the Northern Ireland Protocol.

In its statement, the DUP warned that north-south relationships will not continue as normal.

http://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0202 ... -protocol/

They seem to be coming under pressure from paramilitaries in East Belfast and Larne over the last 3 days.


I imagine this is the start of a protracted campaign for the DUP in getting ready for the next NI Assembly election in 20222 and to further to garner support for the removal of the NIP in 2024 when Stormont has a vote.

Yep you are correct about the consequences of the EU invoking A16, it will come back to haunt them


This move will be seen as the end of the EU.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:38 am

A101 wrote:
OA260 wrote:
A major escalation this evening :

DUP aims to undermine Northern Ireland Protocol

The DUP has announced this evening it will attempt to unite unionism to campaign against the Northern Ireland Protocol.

In its statement, the DUP warned that north-south relationships will not continue as normal.

http://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0202 ... -protocol/

They seem to be coming under pressure from paramilitaries in East Belfast and Larne over the last 3 days.


I imagine this is the start of a protracted campaign for the DUP in getting ready for the next NI Assembly election in 20222 and to further to garner support for the removal of the NIP in 2024 when Stormont has a vote.

Yep you are correct about the consequences of the EU invoking A16, it will come back to haunt them


UK tried dec 2020 and 2 weeks ago.

DUP has never accepted either GFA nor NIP in its current form. As I remember it Tory threw DUP under the bus after last election.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:45 am

Arion640 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
It is a sad consequence of Brexit.


I would say it is a sad consequence of a dishonest UK and an incompetent EU. The UK is jumping at the first opportunity to dismantle the NIP and the EU gave them a convenient excuse to do it. I hope for Ireland that the storm settles soon.


The UK seems to be heading into a political cold war with the EU.


So it takes just 2 weeks after leaving SM and 1 year after leaving EU for UK to get relations with the continent not seen since 1989 with Soviet.

Brexit UK did not even bother to try to save GFA and now the UK government is finding all excuses together with DUP to dismantle it.

Remember that EU did not trigger A 16 but how long time will it take until No 10 do or protestant terrorists kills the first EU custom officer?
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:33 am

That is indeed very true. Can you imagine if they had not rowed back from triggering article 16. It was just a few hours and look where we are and the trouble its caused. I think we are a long way from dead EU customs officers but its a warning of where it can end up if this issue is not resolved.

Good luck also for any side that wants to try to attempt a hard border between ROI-NI because then that brings the IRA into the picture. The UK says it will not put any border checks up so that would leave the ROI to do it who also says it wont. The Irish army and police have already refused because they are too scared of the consequences as being targets. So that leaves FRONTEX but then the threat goes right to the heart of Brussels.

So lets hope video calls today go very well.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:56 am

OA260 wrote:
That is indeed very true. Can you imagine if they had not rowed back from triggering article 16. It was just a few hours and look where we are and the trouble its caused. I think we are a long way from dead EU customs officers but its a warning of where it can end up if this issue is not resolved.

Good luck also for any side that wants to try to attempt a hard border between ROI-NI because then that brings the IRA into the picture. The UK says it will not put any border checks up so that would leave the ROI to do it who also says it wont. The Irish army and police have already refused because they are too scared of the consequences as being targets. So that leaves FRONTEX but then the threat goes right to the heart of Brussels.

So lets hope video calls today go very well.


Remember "project fear" and that EU was one enabler of peace in Europe. EU enables many different people to live and work together.

Where we have hard border we directly get problems like Baltic states and Belarus / Russia.

Now NI / ROI / UK went back to the status before EU. Maintaining GFA without GFA umbrella will that even be possible?
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:54 am

OA260 wrote:
Good luck also for any side that wants to try to attempt a hard border between ROI-NI because then that brings the IRA into the picture.

OMG. If that is really true, then why are we involved with these people? ROI has the right to be an EU member, but if.....

The EU managed to make peace and the GFA decades ago. We cannot have such childish behavior within the union.

If those people still cannot behave when left alone, then we must go back to pre 1973 - no EU west of the Channel. Best of all, put those islands on the back side of the Moon.

If after 40+ years the EU is still called for to maintain the GFA peace, because the British and Irish cannot do that themselves, because they want to copy the Balcans 20 years ago, then.....

The EU is there to increase prosperity, and physical and cultural quality of life for people who value exactly that. The EU is not for people who want it otherwise.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
Arion640
Posts: 3257
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:56 am

olle wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

I would say it is a sad consequence of a dishonest UK and an incompetent EU. The UK is jumping at the first opportunity to dismantle the NIP and the EU gave them a convenient excuse to do it. I hope for Ireland that the storm settles soon.


The UK seems to be heading into a political cold war with the EU.


So it takes just 2 weeks after leaving SM and 1 year after leaving EU for UK to get relations with the continent not seen since 1989 with Soviet.

Brexit UK did not even bother to try to save GFA and now the UK government is finding all excuses together with DUP to dismantle it.

Remember that EU did not trigger A 16 but how long time will it take until No 10 do or protestant terrorists kills the first EU custom officer?


If i’m totally honest, you don’t seem particularly read up on the subject, there is no way the UK will dismantle the GFA regardless of the DUP. Look at the flair up that happened last week.
 
Arion640
Posts: 3257
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:58 am

prebennorholm wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Good luck also for any side that wants to try to attempt a hard border between ROI-NI because then that brings the IRA into the picture.

OMG. If that is really true, then why are we involved with these people? ROI has the right to be an EU member, but if.....

The EU managed to make peace and the GFA decades ago. We cannot have such childish behavior within the union.

If those people still cannot behave when left alone, then we must go back to pre 1973 - no EU west of the Channel. Best of all, put those islands on the back side of the Moon.

If after 40+ years the EU is still called for to maintain the GFA peace, because the British and Irish cannot do that themselves, because they want to copy the Balcans 20 years ago, then.....

The EU is there to increase prosperity, and physical and cultural quality of life for people who value exactly that. The EU is not for people who want it otherwise.


The EU is a third party that interfered with Irish peace last week. In by meddling with things they don’t understand.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 12520
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:16 am

Arion640 wrote:
prebennorholm wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Good luck also for any side that wants to try to attempt a hard border between ROI-NI because then that brings the IRA into the picture.

OMG. If that is really true, then why are we involved with these people? ROI has the right to be an EU member, but if.....

The EU managed to make peace and the GFA decades ago. We cannot have such childish behavior within the union.

If those people still cannot behave when left alone, then we must go back to pre 1973 - no EU west of the Channel. Best of all, put those islands on the back side of the Moon.

If after 40+ years the EU is still called for to maintain the GFA peace, because the British and Irish cannot do that themselves, because they want to copy the Balcans 20 years ago, then.....

The EU is there to increase prosperity, and physical and cultural quality of life for people who value exactly that. The EU is not for people who want it otherwise.


The EU is a third party that interfered with Irish peace last week. In by meddling with things they don’t understand.


The EU isn't a third party, it is very much involved. Brexit created the other border problem and one of its members is one of the signators of the agreement. Like it or not, the EU is involved.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:33 am

Well we shall see today what the EU commission has to offer to restore trust in the community . With involvement and a guarantor comes responsibility.
The EU did not make peace in NI it was primarily politicians on the Island of Ireland backed up by London and Washington with of course support from the EU.

Hopefully listening ears and an olive branch are there when the call from +322 happens.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 12520
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:33 am

prebennorholm wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Good luck also for any side that wants to try to attempt a hard border between ROI-NI because then that brings the IRA into the picture.

OMG. If that is really true, then why are we involved with these people? ROI has the right to be an EU member, but if.....

The EU managed to make peace and the GFA decades ago. We cannot have such childish behavior within the union.

If those people still cannot behave when left alone, then we must go back to pre 1973 - no EU west of the Channel. Best of all, put those islands on the back side of the Moon.

If after 40+ years the EU is still called for to maintain the GFA peace, because the British and Irish cannot do that themselves, because they want to copy the Balcans 20 years ago, then.....

The EU is there to increase prosperity, and physical and cultural quality of life for people who value exactly that. The EU is not for people who want it otherwise.


Well, I guess that many Brexiteers and many in de DUP would like to return to pre-1921, a united UK and Ireland with a dominant London as the center.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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OA260
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:52 am

I would guess probably not the case as the DUP have shown time and time again their anger at London. Thats gone on at various times over the last few decades. Besides the standard of living is much better these days due to the strength of the Irish and UK economies. Which even post Brexit and Covid will still be better .
 
bennett123
Posts: 10861
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:14 am

Dutchy

My understanding of the Pre 1921 position is that the UK guaranteed Unionist supremacy.
 
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OA260
Posts: 25577
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:40 am

Interesting language used by Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney this morning in an interview where he said it was unrealistic to do away with the NI protocol “entirely” . Seems to suggest some movement and language change in recent days.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
Posts: 1934
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:06 am

olle wrote:
Remember that EU did not trigger A 16


This annoying thing where people are shouting that the EU (and Ursula von der Leyen in particular) actually invoked or triggered article 16 - when they didn't! - is for me the biggest "tell" that this is whipped-up PR...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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Grizzly410
Posts: 532
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:27 am

A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
A101 wrote:
I have found it quite amusing to read all the UK bashing since the end of the transition, what is happening know is quite what I expected and have said that it would in past posts within these hollowed threads on Brexit that there will be disruptions until people become more aware on the new operating construct of trade between UK/EU.


Sorry but google can't help me find a post of yours where you predict various sector will have to simply kiss goodbye to basically all their exports (like shellfish industry and tour artists), care to point me to one ?

Seriously, you seems to treat this like if it was simply an adjustment variable. But even with experience of the operations, many businesses who were viable before brexit will not be anymore due to the added cost of the NTB. The livelihood of thousands of people is at stake.
Of course, I understand it's easier to just state big concept and never really look at practical consequences, that's brexiters in chief modus operandi for 5 years after all, and it worked pretty well for them. I wonder though, do you have an idea what could be the coming opportunities for the people working in the 2 sectors mentionned above ?



Stand by my statement, that it is an adjustment period on both sides of the border its the market that says whom will flourish and who will not, its up to the SME if whether or not they pass on the costs in thew new trading relationship and the consumer if they are prepared to accept those costs, you only have to go back through the threads and i have been consistent on that line


I see, if the market eventually dictates thousands of businesses go belly up, other thousands takes a big hit and only a few manage to thrive, it won’t be because brexiters never looked at the actual consequences. There’s just the bloody market to blame !
How convenient.

A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:

The threats against custom agents in NI-UK border is rather interesting though.
Can't recall if you were one of them A101 but I remember a lot of brexiter against May's backstop deal arguing the backstop was unecessary because a technological border would make the trick.

It's a shame they are so silent now they could put in place such invisible technological border between NI and GB !
Didn't you ever advocate such border operations was doable in time A101 ?


Yes was me who said it, its Brussels whom said it could not be done its Brussels implementing the rules at NI ports.

But if we went on your train of thought then both the EU/UK could scrap the NIP and go back to the status quo don't you think as until NI votes NI is still sovereign territory of the UK in which the EU agrees within the Belfast Agreement and the WA


I’m talking about the electronic border brexiters were confident to have ready to implement in such no time that the backstop in May’s WA was useless.
What are they waiting to implement it, at least by bits, for the Irish Sea Border ? I mean, if Brussels “said” it could not be done it just takes the world beating UKG to demonstrate it can. Should be easy.

Not sure how my train of thoughts brings you to such an assertion, scraping the NIP is certainly not a solution, and not an option anyway.
The NIP is UK Prime Minister negotiated solution, he got a wide majority in Parliament by campaigning for it during last GE, it’s simply time to make it work as envisaged.
Unfortunately it seems he didn’t give much thought about it. Remember 2 weeks ago ? “if somebody asks you (to fill a form) you tell them to ring up the Prime Minister & I will direct them to throw that form in the bin”
But now he’s begging EU to extend the grace period….. (when he could have unilateraly decided to extend the Transition Period last summer but carelessly decided no to)
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55913907

Sorry but it simply shows that just like a lot of others topic linked to Brexit, no magic exists. As M. Barnier said in most of his speaches, brexit have consequences.
In this case, full border procedures with no way to go back to a status quo or hide it : EU and UK are now in different regulation and custom territory by UK decision, with all its implications.
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14620
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:51 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:

Sorry but google can't help me find a post of yours where you predict various sector will have to simply kiss goodbye to basically all their exports (like shellfish industry and tour artists), care to point me to one ?

Seriously, you seems to treat this like if it was simply an adjustment variable. But even with experience of the operations, many businesses who were viable before brexit will not be anymore due to the added cost of the NTB. The livelihood of thousands of people is at stake.
Of course, I understand it's easier to just state big concept and never really look at practical consequences, that's brexiters in chief modus operandi for 5 years after all, and it worked pretty well for them. I wonder though, do you have an idea what could be the coming opportunities for the people working in the 2 sectors mentionned above ?



Stand by my statement, that it is an adjustment period on both sides of the border its the market that says whom will flourish and who will not, its up to the SME if whether or not they pass on the costs in thew new trading relationship and the consumer if they are prepared to accept those costs, you only have to go back through the threads and i have been consistent on that line


I see, if the market eventually dictates thousands of businesses go belly up, other thousands takes a big hit and only a few manage to thrive, it won’t be because brexiters never looked at the actual consequences. There’s just the bloody market to blame !
.


First order of business for Singapore-on-Thames: if our businesses don´t flourish, the market is wrong! Definitely "can´t make this up" territory.

And the thing is: few businesses, unless they are very small, will fade from this. Most will just shift much of fulfillment and/or production across the channel, jobs and taxes included. Or just the whole business, since even in a reverse situation the 440+ million customers on one side are simply more valuable than the 66 million on the other for many of them.I don´t think many will be so patriot to just reduce business by 85%. Or they will rely more on distributors, cutting into margins.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
AeroVega
Posts: 373
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:32 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:04 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
olle wrote:
Remember that EU did not trigger A 16


This annoying thing where people are shouting that the EU (and Ursula von der Leyen in particular) actually invoked or triggered article 16 - when they didn't! - is for me the biggest "tell" that this is whipped-up PR...


Her resignment is the best thing the EU can do to get this genie back in the bottle. That alone should be enough reason for a real leader to quit. Unfortunately, she's not a real leader, just another ambitious politician.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:14 pm

Arion640 wrote:
prebennorholm wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Good luck also for any side that wants to try to attempt a hard border between ROI-NI because then that brings the IRA into the picture.

OMG. If that is really true, then why are we involved with these people? ROI has the right to be an EU member, but if.....

The EU managed to make peace and the GFA decades ago. We cannot have such childish behavior within the union.

If those people still cannot behave when left alone, then we must go back to pre 1973 - no EU west of the Channel. Best of all, put those islands on the back side of the Moon.

If after 40+ years the EU is still called for to maintain the GFA peace, because the British and Irish cannot do that themselves, because they want to copy the Balcans 20 years ago, then.....

The EU is there to increase prosperity, and physical and cultural quality of life for people who value exactly that. The EU is not for people who want it otherwise.


The EU is a third party that interfered with Irish peace last week. In by meddling with things they don’t understand.


Sometimes I think that people in UK and ROI need to understand that let say Stella Kyriakides and VDL comes from Greece and Germany. Do a Boris Johnsson from UK understand the problem that Lithuania faces with it Russian population, or Cyprus with Turkey? In detail? I do not think so. They depend on experts.

It even thinks that Boris Johnsson does not understand the situation in NI.



--------------------------

Boris Johnson's comparison of the Irish border with the boundaries of London's traffic congestion charge zone has been widely ridiculed.

The foreign secretary was speaking about the challenges Brexit will pose to moving goods over the 310-mile border without imposing checkpoints.

He said there was "no border between Islington or Camden and Westminster", and yet traffic fees were collected.

Comical comparisons of Camden and the border have sprung up on social media.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-43208893
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14620
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:18 pm

AeroVega wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
olle wrote:
Remember that EU did not trigger A 16


This annoying thing where people are shouting that the EU (and Ursula von der Leyen in particular) actually invoked or triggered article 16 - when they didn't! - is for me the biggest "tell" that this is whipped-up PR...


Her resignment is the best thing the EU can do to get this genie back in the bottle. That alone should be enough reason for a real leader to quit. Unfortunately, she's not a real leader, just another ambitious politician.


her being gone would be excellent, but not over a made up scandal London had the Spin ready to release when their secret vaccine nationalism blows up, expecting the absolutely predictable EU reaction to it.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Olddog
Posts: 1639
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:20 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Her resignment is the best thing the EU can do to get this genie back in the bottle. That alone should be enough reason for a real leader to quit. Unfortunately, she's not a real leader, just another ambitious politician.


I fail to understand why should the EU should consider the UK opinion of UVdL ?
 
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qf789
Moderator
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Re: Brexit part XI: 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:05 pm

After much discussion amongst the moderators we have decided to close and lock this thread. Unfortunately there has been way too much we have had to intervene in with users continually being disrespectful to one another, the repetitive flamebait, low quality posts, some trolling others. Despite handing out plenty or warnings and bans it hasnt improved and over the pass 3 days an excessive amount of posts have had to be removed, to the point where more posts have been removed from this thread than the rest of the site combined for the same time. There will be no more Brexit threads, we may revisit that at a later stage but for now there is to be no Brexit XII and so on.
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