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tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:14 am

marcelh wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:


that would be the same UK that ordered after the EU, right?

best regards
Thomas


What the USA and UK have done well is to secure a lot of the early produced doses.


The EU has in writing that isn´t true."No competing obligations", remeber?

best regards
Thomas
 
flyguy89
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:15 am

tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
zhiao wrote:

The UK and US ordered on risk.


that would be the same UK that ordered after the EU, right?

best regards
Thomas

Apparently the UK did indeed secure a much earlier agreement nailing down a dedicated vaccine supply chain with AZ:

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key ... contracts/

However, the key lies in an earlier agreement that AstraZeneca made back in May with the U.K., which was a binding deal establishing “the development of a dedicated supply chain for the U.K.,” an AstraZeneca spokesperson said.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:17 am

flyguy89 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:


that would be the same UK that ordered after the EU, right?

best regards
Thomas

Apparently the UK did indeed secure a much earlier agreement nailing down a dedicated vaccine supply chain with AZ:

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key ... contracts/

However, the key lies in an earlier agreement that AstraZeneca made back in May with the U.K., which was a binding deal establishing “the development of a dedicated supply chain for the U.K.,” an AstraZeneca spokesperson said.


And AZ put in writing that no such obligation exists, securing hundreds of millions in the process.

best regards
Thomas
 
flyguy89
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:24 am

tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

that would be the same UK that ordered after the EU, right?

best regards
Thomas

Apparently the UK did indeed secure a much earlier agreement nailing down a dedicated vaccine supply chain with AZ:

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key ... contracts/

However, the key lies in an earlier agreement that AstraZeneca made back in May with the U.K., which was a binding deal establishing “the development of a dedicated supply chain for the U.K.,” an AstraZeneca spokesperson said.


And AZ put in writing that no such obligation exists, securing hundreds of millions in the process.

best regards
Thomas

From the same article:

The level of specificity is partially due to the legal systems they’re based on. The U.K. contract is written in English law, which will judge whether both parties delivered the goods based on the exact wording of the contract. The EU contract is written in Belgian law, which focuses on whether both parties tried their best to deliver the goods and acted in good faith.

It’s these extra details that give the U.K. more leverage to ensure its contract is delivered effectively. While both contracts say all parties will make their “best reasonable effort” to deliver the vaccine, the U.K. government is clearer in asserting its oversight of the agreement.

This core difference, according to a lawyer familiar with the development of the U.K. text, can be chalked up to the fact that the contract sealed with London was written by people with significant experience of purchasing agreements, specifically drug-buying deals. The European Commission’s contract, by contrast, shows a lack of commercial common sense, in the lawyer’s view.

The starkest example of this difference is a clause in the U.K. contract stating that if any party tries to force or persuade AstraZeneca or its subcontractors to do anything that could hold up the supply of the vaccine doses, the government may terminate the deal and invoke what appear to be punishment clauses — although these are largely redacted.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:46 am

flyguy89 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Apparently the UK did indeed secure a much earlier agreement nailing down a dedicated vaccine supply chain with AZ:

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key ... contracts/



And AZ put in writing that no such obligation exists, securing hundreds of millions in the process.

best regards
Thomas

From the same article:


The problem isn´t which contract is the stronger one and which isn´t, the problem is that AZ lied about existing obligations, and with that omission scammed the EU our of hundreds of millions of EURs that could have been used to ramp up other suppliers output instead.

best regards
Thomas
 
gkirk
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:08 am

tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

And AZ put in writing that no such obligation exists, securing hundreds of millions in the process.

best regards
Thomas

From the same article:


The problem isn´t which contract is the stronger one and which isn´t, the problem is that AZ lied about existing obligations, and with that omission scammed the EU our of hundreds of millions of EURs that could have been used to ramp up other suppliers output instead.

best regards
Thomas



The EU shouldnt be blaming AZ for their own,significant shortcomings in the Vaccine distribution. But rather, look at where they have went wrong. Now we have a sittuation where EU countries are sitting on stockpiles of vaccine that arent being used. If they dont want to use them, send them to countries who do!
 
marcelh
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:15 am

tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

And AZ put in writing that no such obligation exists, securing hundreds of millions in the process.

best regards
Thomas

From the same article:


The problem isn´t which contract is the stronger one and which isn´t, the problem is that AZ lied about existing obligations, and with that omission scammed the EU our of hundreds of millions of EURs that could have been used to ramp up other suppliers output instead.

best regards
Thomas


You can ask yourself if it's ethical to define a foreign production site as "UK production chain" (in the EU) by a consortium which received money from the UK government.
 
marcelh
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:46 am

gkirk wrote:
The EU shouldnt be blaming AZ for their own,significant shortcomings in the Vaccine distribution. But rather, look at where they have went wrong. Now we have a sittuation where EU countries are sitting on stockpiles of vaccine that arent being used. If they dont want to use them, send them to countries who do!


You can ask yourself why the EU hasn't the same issues with BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna. The UK was lucky they bet heavily on the Oxford vaccin which was ready for use early. And yes, next time the EU may also impose export bans which can't be bypassed by defining foreign production sites as a ".... production chain". And although some countries have distribution issues, the main issue in the EU is the slow delivery in Q1.

And the EU isn't sitting on stockpiles of vaccine, some countries have temporarily suspended vaccination with the AZ vaccine and thoses doses will be administered later. And don't forget you need to have some stock because a lot of people still need their second dose.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:36 am

marcelh wrote:
gkirk wrote:
The EU shouldnt be blaming AZ for their own,significant shortcomings in the Vaccine distribution. But rather, look at where they have went wrong. Now we have a sittuation where EU countries are sitting on stockpiles of vaccine that arent being used. If they dont want to use them, send them to countries who do!


You can ask yourself why the EU hasn't the same issues with BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna.


They didn´t lie in the contracts. Its pretty simple why the EU doesn´t have the same issues with them.

And yes, next time the EU may also impose export bans which can't be bypassed by defining foreign production sites


no need to wait until next time, they can still do that.

best regards
Thomas
 
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Aesma
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:45 am

gkirk wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
From the same article:


The problem isn´t which contract is the stronger one and which isn´t, the problem is that AZ lied about existing obligations, and with that omission scammed the EU our of hundreds of millions of EURs that could have been used to ramp up other suppliers output instead.

best regards
Thomas


The EU shouldnt be blaming AZ for their own,significant shortcomings in the Vaccine distribution. But rather, look at where they have went wrong. Now we have a sittuation where EU countries are sitting on stockpiles of vaccine that arent being used. If they dont want to use them, send them to countries who do!


In France before this latest development there was no stockpile of AZ, it was being given to doctors and pharmacies to reach more people, and mass vaccination centers were set up on the week-ends. The issue was the vaccine numbers were/are too low, so doctors for example could get 1 vial a week and that's it (10 doses). That's problematic if they want to ramp up vaccination, especially since it couldn't be certain they would get any the week after, and indeed they didn't.

Well there was a bit of a stockpile (not millions of doses) to be sure second doses were available in time because we still follow the manufacturer's recommended interval.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:34 am

Dear American and British friends who post in this Thread,

I'm not sure why you constantly speak of fiasco about the EU vaccine procuration when all the relevant information seems to have been posted here. Just own the fact, that you agree with your government's intend to vaccinate its people first, while the EU chose to share the burden with the world.

Disclaimer 1: This is based on what I have read so far. While both US and UK governments claim there is no export ban, I haven't yet seen evidance that vaccine produced in those 2 countries have been exported. If you know better, I'm happy to be proven wrong.
Disclaimer 2: Of course US and UK also share the burden since the western pharma industry is heavily internationally interconnect.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:39 am

A-Z is a completely unreliable manufacturer, one which has limited experience with mass vaccination production runs, oversold its output, tried to sell at the highest price and to the highest bidder, signed up to conflicting contracts, and is caught red handed lieing about the situation in the EP!
It needs to be stripped if its property rights and be broken up by the EC.
 
gkirk
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:41 am

AZ is only selling at cost though, it's not making any profit from the vaccine?
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:50 am

gkirk wrote:
AZ is only selling at cost though, it's not making any profit from the vaccine?


Not quite. They produce at cost, with some no questions ask wiggle room, until they feel the worst of the pandemic is over, which may be as early as July in their book.They also get to keep the tax payer funded production capacity, at least i can not find any indication those go back into government property later.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/ast ... dge-report

Seems a bit like a "corner the market, then make profit" approach, and makes me suspicious if drastically overselling capacity wasn´t deliberate.

best regards
Thomas
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:06 am

The next uptick in cases in happening. It is early, but it can be seen in Germany and Italy, it is possible to argue France too
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

Vaccinations have dropped from .28 per hundred to .25 if you clean up the 2nd chart and add the EU.

With so many vaccines in production, there is no cornering the market. So the question is, what is the EU going to do to mitigate the coming wave? In particular without AZ.
“The data we have suggests that numbers of adverse events related to blood clots are the same (and possibly, in fact lower) in vaccinated groups compared to unvaccinated populations,” he continued.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/astraze ... -shot.html

Between "quasi-ineffective" comments of Macron we should note (from same link):
“Halting a vaccine roll out during a pandemic has consequences. This results in delays in protecting people, and the potential for increased vaccine hesitancy, as a result of people who have seen the headlines and understandably become concerned. There are no signs yet of any data that really justify these decisions,” Head added.

There is no way to recover the momentum in the AZ vaccine drive. The EU was already very vaccine hesitant, now it will be worse. With only 8% with one dose of vaccine, that won't slow the spread:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

The US was being pressured to release vaccine. The obvious candidate would have been the stockpile of AZ. That might not help much now...

Lightsaber
 
Olddog
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:22 am

It is so fun how Macron traumatized the english speaking sphere while it was long forgotten in France :)

We had tons of medical advices since and a lot of news from other EU countries stopping the AZ vaccine.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:25 am

lightsaber wrote:
So the question is, what is the EU going to do to mitigate the coming wave? In particular without AZ.


Since AZ planned shipments until summer are rather miniscule with or without them does not make that much of a difference.
Those extra ~10% doses would be nice, but it's not like it would be a game changer. Even Moderna is going to out deliver them by about 1/3rd.

For Germany it looks like this:

Image

That is people fully vaccinated, not doses.

Source: https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/med ... 8d17252d62

Note AZ actual planned deliveries vs. the roughly 80 million doses the signed a contract for to be delivered before July 1st.
Their current plan would only deliver 70% of that, six month late.

Best regards
Thomas
 
sabenapilot
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:58 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Note AZ actual planned deliveries vs. the roughly 80 million doses the signed a contract for to be delivered before July 1st.
Their current plan would only deliver 70% of that, six month late.

Best regards
Thomas


I agree, the call for an indepth inquiry into this is increasing by the day in Europe, and rightfully so.

There can be production hick ups, delivery shortfalls and delays, but not to this extend: this is either complete incompetence, or willfull misconduct. no week has gone by since A-Z has had to inform that they were going to miss yet another guaranteed target, to the point it's getting ridiculous almost as health services can't plan first shots effectively any longer, because there's no guarantee whatsoever the same quantity of vaccines will arrive for the required follow up shots later. that's not a ramp up, that's just a sputtering output then.

None of the other manufacturers seem to have the same problems, quite on the contrary: they are largely overdelivering, contrary to A-Z which is caught to have been overpromissing.

As you've noticed, the suspicion is that this may have been a deliberate act based on nasty commercial strategy to capture this in future very lucrative market as an early entrant, knowiing their product is in fact the least attractive of them all (complex storage, 2 shots, quite expensive too). Strip them off their propterty rights and split them up, I'd say;
 
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par13del
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:54 pm

So how exactly was a supposed "fradulent" company allowed to operate in the EU and grow so big that they got to this stage where they are / were such a key factor in the vaccine debacle, surely there must have been signs of their incompetence in prior operations?
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:56 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
quite expensive too


In all fairness, on a unit base if is relatively cheap, just 5,- EUR per person. Plus 396 Million EUR for production ramp up while shipping vaccine in qty when it probably doesn´t matter anymore.......

Curious though.... if they produce the vaccine with no profit, how come they have different prices at all?

best regards
Thomas
 
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par13del
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:01 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
quite expensive too


In all fairness, on a unit base if is relatively cheap, just 5,- EUR per person. Plus 396 Million EUR for production ramp up while shipping vaccine in qty when it probably doesn´t matter anymore.......

Curious though.... if they produce the vaccine with no profit, how come they have different prices at all?

best regards
Thomas

It all depends on where they expect to make their profit, you want to take a bet that the higher prices are to non-EU nations?
Certainly, shipping cost will be higher....
 
marcelh
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:08 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
So the question is, what is the EU going to do to mitigate the coming wave? In particular without AZ.


Since AZ planned shipments until summer are rather miniscule with or without them does not make that much of a difference.
Best regards
Thomas


For the Netherlands AstraZenica will have to deliver 4 million doses in Q2 and that is about 25% of the total planned; not what I should call "miniscule". And it is essential to have everyone vaccinated at least 1 time at July 1st.

Fortunately, already a lot of the vulnerable groups are (at least once) vaccinated with BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna and that will be continued.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:26 pm

par13del wrote:
So how exactly was a supposed "fradulent" company allowed to operate in the EU and grow so big that they got to this stage where they are / were such a key factor in the vaccine debacle, surely there must have been signs of their incompetence in prior operations?


you mean like with Enron or Theranos?

best regards
Thomas
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:31 pm

A crisis threatens to engulf Angela Merkel’s government over her decision to suspend use of the AstraZeneca vaccine along with 15 other EU countries, which the Italian medicines regulator admitted was a “political decision

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/me ... NewsSearch

“The bottom line, sadly, is that this good and effective vaccine is not being accepted by the public in many countries because of the row and the suspension,” said Frank Ulrich Montgomery, the German head of the World Medical Association.

This is a disaster. I already pointed out how the low vaccination rate has slowed. There will not be enough vaccines for anyone. A political smear campaign was childish and counter productive.

So much for AZ missing on quantity. This uncertainty will stall the takeup rate. If I were kiniving to plan economic destruction if EU nations, this is a perfect plan; create incredible vaccine hesitancy.

This is an aviation blog. I hope soon vaccines are required for all air travel (domestic and international) as that is needed to minimize the spread.

How will the EU recover from this as it tarnishes all vaccines.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:33 pm

marcelh wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
So the question is, what is the EU going to do to mitigate the coming wave? In particular without AZ.


Since AZ planned shipments until summer are rather miniscule with or without them does not make that much of a difference.
Best regards
Thomas


For the Netherlands AstraZenica will have to deliver 4 million doses in Q2 and that is about 25% of the total planned; not what I should call "miniscule". And it is essential to have everyone vaccinated at least 1 time at July 1st.

Fortunately, already a lot of the vulnerable groups are (at least once) vaccinated with BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna and that will be continued.

It is good to get the vulnerable groups. However, the uptake of AZ is dropping just as supply increases. Vaccines on a shelf help no one.

This is a political game not in the EU's favor.

Lightsaber
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:59 pm

lightsaber wrote:
How will the EU recover from this as it tarnishes all vaccines.


how is one vaccine all vaccines?

lightsaber wrote:
However, the uptake of AZ is dropping just as supply increases.


There is no "supply increase" from AZs side, they reduce deliveries from schedules promised just a few weeks ago: https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coron ... eu/lang/en again.

I would happily get AZ if i could, and i was and am in favor of reducing exports to the level of the US and the UK or exporting only to countries without domestic vaccine production or those that have an equally generous export regiment.

best regards
Thomas
 
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par13del
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:16 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
So how exactly was a supposed "fradulent" company allowed to operate in the EU and grow so big that they got to this stage where they are / were such a key factor in the vaccine debacle, surely there must have been signs of their incompetence in prior operations?


you mean like with Enron or Theranos?

best regards
Thomas

So you are saying that we should judge the EU based on others?
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:30 pm

par13del wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
So how exactly was a supposed "fradulent" company allowed to operate in the EU and grow so big that they got to this stage where they are / were such a key factor in the vaccine debacle, surely there must have been signs of their incompetence in prior operations?


you mean like with Enron or Theranos?

best regards
Thomas

So you are saying that we should judge the EU based on others?


Just that many companies are essentially fine, until they are not. Although AstraZeneca got hopes up for a lung cancer treatment a few years back... to not deliver tangible results.

best regards
Thomas
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 4:06 pm

marcelh wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
So the question is, what is the EU going to do to mitigate the coming wave? In particular without AZ.


Since AZ planned shipments until summer are rather miniscule with or without them does not make that much of a difference.
Best regards
Thomas


For the Netherlands AstraZenica will have to deliver 4 million doses in Q2 .


Keyword here being *supposed to*. So far they pretty consistently deliver half of what they have promised just weeks before, which is already less than half of what they initially put in writing, only to cut deliveries further when their "promises" are called by logistics and planning staff for making actual plans.

Their current schedule "plans" to deliver about 1/3 of what they sold for delivery until June 30th, and still fall short by December 31st. Fall short of the June numbers that is.

And it is essential to have everyone vaccinated at least 1 time at July 1st.


That won´t happen. Not because Biontech/Pfizer don´t deliver (they actually over-perform quite a bit), not because Moderna doesn´t deliver, not because J&J won´t deliver, but exclusively because AZ doesn´t.
The way things look at the moment, by July 1st more people here will have gotten the J&J vaccine than AZ.

best regards
Thomas
 
flyguy89
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:57 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

And AZ put in writing that no such obligation exists, securing hundreds of millions in the process.

best regards
Thomas

From the same article:


The problem isn´t which contract is the stronger one and which isn´t, the problem is that AZ lied about existing obligations, and with that omission scammed the EU our of hundreds of millions of EURs that could have been used to ramp up other suppliers output instead.

best regards
Thomas

The strength of the contracts very much has a bearing on why the UK is seeing stronger fulfillment with production shortages compared to the EU. What I can’t quite understand is (and is a bit telling IMO) nearly every approved vaccine has encountered some type of major production shortfall despite receiving government monies the world over to goose production...perfect example being the J&J vaccine in the US, yet it’s odd that only the EU chooses to publicly row with only AZ on this issue. I think clearly AZ does have some explaining to do, but then so to does the EU on their inadequate contracting and fulfillment/supply chain oversight where they clearly lacked institutional experience.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:11 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
..., and i was and am in favor of reducing exports to the level of the US and the UK or exporting only to countries without domestic vaccine production or those that have an equally generous export regiment.


I hope the EU will not follow your advice. I think that the EU shouldn't change its moral compass because of the behaviour of others.
 
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SQ22
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:17 pm

It seems like BioNTech-Pfizer is able to deliver additional vaccines to the EU in the second quarter.

COVID: BioNTech-Pfizer speeds up vaccine delivery to EU
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:31 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
From the same article:


The problem isn´t which contract is the stronger one and which isn´t, the problem is that AZ lied about existing obligations, and with that omission scammed the EU our of hundreds of millions of EURs that could have been used to ramp up other suppliers output instead.

best regards
Thomas

The strength of the contracts very much has a bearing on why the UK is seeing stronger fulfillment with production shortages compared to the EU.


Since the EU has in writing that there was no competing obligation, which was a flat out lie, whatever is written in contracts AZ lied about is irrelevant. According to AZ, again in writing, they don't exist as far EU supply is concerned.

What I can’t quite understand is (and is a bit telling IMO) nearly every approved vaccine has encountered some type of major production shortfall despite receiving government monies the world over to goose production...perfect example being the J&J vaccine in the US, yet it’s odd that only the EU chooses to publicly row with only AZ on this issue.


So, how many other vaccine suppliers and customers are there where the supplier delivers only a third, at best, of what they sold and have no intention to fulfill the order even six month later, while supplying other customers in full or close to it? With or without putting in writing that there are no competing obligations.

None.

I think clearly AZ does have some explaining to do,


In deed. Preferringly in a court room facing charges.

Best regards
Thomas
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:34 pm

SQ22 wrote:
It seems like BioNTech-Pfizer is able to deliver additional vaccines to the EU in the second quarter.

COVID: BioNTech-Pfizer speeds up vaccine delivery to EU


I think this is actually the 3rd up correction BioNTech-Pfizer made this year.

Best regards
Thomas
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:50 pm

lightsaber wrote:
A crisis threatens to engulf Angela Merkel’s government over her decision to suspend use of the AstraZeneca vaccine along with 15 other EU countries, which the Italian medicines regulator admitted was a “political decision

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/me ... NewsSearch

“The bottom line, sadly, is that this good and effective vaccine is not being accepted by the public in many countries because of the row and the suspension,” said Frank Ulrich Montgomery, the German head of the World Medical Association.

This is a disaster. I already pointed out how the low vaccination rate has slowed. There will not be enough vaccines for anyone. A political smear campaign was childish and counter productive.

So much for AZ missing on quantity. This uncertainty will stall the takeup rate. If I were kiniving to plan economic destruction if EU nations, this is a perfect plan; create incredible vaccine hesitancy.

This is an aviation blog. I hope soon vaccines are required for all air travel (domestic and international) as that is needed to minimize the spread.

How will the EU recover from this as it tarnishes all vaccines.

Lightsaber


I'm not sure why you see the blame so one sided. Even the link you provided has some quotes of people defending the suspension.
Isn't the probleme here that many people in Europe try to score political points by giving their opinion on every little nugget of information?

We all know that vaccine sceptics are rather large groupe in Europe. For some it will be almost impossible to convince them otherwise. But I belive that many can be conviced to take the vaccine with appropriate messaging. I'm far from being an expert on how to influance public opinion, but to me the EU strategie doesn't seem that bad:
1. Take time to review the data provided, when data is missed, require it, and when the regulatory body has enough confidance, autorise the vaccine (as the EU did with AZ)
2. When newspaper start reporting death cases of younger people, just after having taken a particular vaccine, temporearly susspend the vaccine, let the regulatory body cheek that they haven't missed anything, and restart unsing it (As the EU will do with AZ).

You might have much more knowleadge on the subject, and I would be happy to hear from you where the EU should have acted differently.
Also this entire story, to me, seems rather similar with the Boeing MAX saga but with much more at stake. Should the EMA see the tiniest problem with the AZ vaccine, without the little stop some coutries have imposed, the consequances would be much worse on the anti vaxxer.

Happy to read your replay Lightsaber (and others),
Best regards,
Jonas
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3448
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:51 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

The problem isn´t which contract is the stronger one and which isn´t, the problem is that AZ lied about existing obligations, and with that omission scammed the EU our of hundreds of millions of EURs that could have been used to ramp up other suppliers output instead.

best regards
Thomas

The strength of the contracts very much has a bearing on why the UK is seeing stronger fulfillment with production shortages compared to the EU.


Since the EU has in writing that there was no competing obligation, which was a flat out lie, whatever is written in contracts AZ lied about is irrelevant. According to AZ, again in writing, they don't exist as far EU supply is concerned.

No competing obligations based on which supply chains and which projected production capacities planned at the time? Was language written into the contract laying out delivery timelines taking into account probable lags in emergency approvals that saw the UK beginning AZ vaccinations a full month before the EU? Clearly the EU should have taken a cue from other nations that took a much more proactive role in developing and securing dedicated supply chains and advanced production. Instead it seems they were content to just sit back and assume such a Herculean production effort would go off perfectly...that is where the EU failed. Many of the other large nations seem to have anticipated the inevitable production ramp-up and distribution issues while the EU is shocked...shocked that production isn’t happening perfectly. You can whine all you’d like about the writing in the contract, but it doesn’t change the on-the-ground reality, which is where they should be focused...doing everything necessary to secure and expand European supply chains for vaccine production.

tommy1808 wrote:
What I can’t quite understand is (and is a bit telling IMO) nearly every approved vaccine has encountered some type of major production shortfall despite receiving government monies the world over to goose production...perfect example being the J&J vaccine in the US, yet it’s odd that only the EU chooses to publicly row with only AZ on this issue.


So, how many other vaccine suppliers and customers are there where the supplier delivers only a third, at best, of what they sold and have no intention to fulfill the order even six month later, while supplying other customers in full or close to it? With or without putting in writing that there are no competing obligations.

None.

J&J was only able to make available 4 million doses (100 million originally ordered) upon approval at the end of last month. Despite receiving $1 billion from the government back in March 2020 that was supposed to include pre-approval production to have large quantities of the vaccine available by early 2021, it won’t be able to supply the full 100 million doses until June this year.

tommy1808 wrote:
I think clearly AZ does have some explaining to do,


In deed. Preferringly in a court room facing charges.

Best regards
Thomas

Ok great, send them to jail then. You’re still going to be massive short of doses and lagging in vaccinations.
 
AeroVega
Posts: 374
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:32 pm

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:25 pm

tommy1808 wrote:

I think clearly AZ does have some explaining to do,


In deed. Preferringly in a court room facing charges.

Best regards
Thomas


"The Commission and EU countries waived the right to sue [AZ] over any delays in coronavirus vaccine deliveries".

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... -lawsuits/.

Oh well.
 
JJJ
Posts: 4119
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:28 pm

AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

I think clearly AZ does have some explaining to do,


In deed. Preferringly in a court room facing charges.

Best regards
Thomas


"The Commission and EU countries waived the right to sue [AZ] over any delays in coronavirus vaccine deliveries".

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... -lawsuits/.

Oh well.


They can seek damages not for delays but for bad faith. You can void the whole contract if one party is proved to have acted in bad faith.

Bad faith as in "no other obligations", for example.
 
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BaconButty
Posts: 935
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:18 am

flyguy89 wrote:
No competing obligations based on which supply chains and which projected production capacities planned at the time?


Exactly. From the APA: "Par 5.1. Initial Europe Doses. Astra Zeneaca shall use its best reasonable efforts to manufacture the initial Europe doses within the EU". In black and bleeding white. So there clearly were no "competing obligations" to that supply chain, at least. Sadly, I've found our "MEGA" friends are somewhat allergic to discussing the text of the contract.

tommy1808 wrote:
They also get to keep the tax payer funded production capacity, at least i can not find any indication those go back into government property later.


You are aware that AZ subcontracts all the EU production don't you? The main facility at Seneffe is owned by a French company - recently bought by an American one if i recall.

tommy1808 wrote:
I would happily get AZ if i could, and i was and am in favor of reducing exports to the level of the US and the UK or exporting only to countries without domestic vaccine production or those that have an equally generous export regiment.


You should be delighted with the export levels. Really. The EU went into vaccine negotiations viewing them as commercial transactions. They wanted the lowest price, least liability on member states, and for domestic supply chains to be built up. They got what they wanted - you have a trade surplus in vaccines :thumbsup: . Jobs in Belgium and Spain. But this was a choice - you could have opted to invest in scaling up existing supply chains outside the EU.

But what if you we're to add extra restrictions on the outflow of vaccines? There's long term effects on your pharmaceutical industry - it will be seen as unreliable in a crisis. India, China and Russia have proven the reliable partners and their soft power - particularly in the global south - has been enhanced.

But vaccines aren't produced in a single factory - there's a whole supply chain, from vials to adjuvants. Disrupt that and you slow down global production - each nation needing it's own vertical slices of prodction capability, with all the inefficiencies that entails. So take the US export ban - SI in India have said that the hoarding of some raw ingredients is slowing down their Novavax production (yes, they make that too).

And then there's knowledge. Not as tangible but equally if not more important. That's the UK's principle contribution. Last I heard we do 50% of the worlds genetic sequencing, down from 70% at the start of the crisis - vital work. They will be working with curevac to exploit this expertise in version 2 of their vaccine, to address variants. A disproportionate amount of trials were done here - and continue to be done.Lots of other work is ongoing. I have my name down for vaccine trials (never called) but they send out a newsletter. One came today, and listed some interesting stuff:

"Studies are underway or planned on:
• new vaccines, so that there are enough vaccines to protect everyone
• special groups such as pregnant women, children and young adults, and those with a weakened immune system
• how best to use existing vaccines, looking at dose of vaccine, the interval between giving the first and second doses, and whether the brand/type of vaccine given for first and second doses makes a difference to effectiveness
• giving flu vaccine at the same time as the Covid vaccine
• booster vaccines or third doses
• vaccines against new variants of Covid."

It also mentions challenge trials - we're (healthy, young) people are deliberately given a dose of covid (they're currently fine tuning the dose).

The point is - what if nations start making this sort of data proprietary? If this is part of what the UK brings to the table, if it counts for nothing, why bother? We really need more sharing of data - and less "not invented here" attitude towards "foreign" data. I really think vaccines have been the good news story of this horrible affair, but the rise of protectionism, in the EU and the US, has been a disappointing aspect of it. Both I understand, to a point. The situation when Biden took office wasn't great, and he had to take action. But there will be consequences of that long term. These events are expected to become more frequent, and I fear next time international cooperation will not be as impressive.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23107
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:44 am

tommy1808 wrote:

how is one vaccine all vaccines?


"While it's easy to scare people, it's very hard to unscare them," said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center and an infectious disease specialist at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

Taking the vaccine off the market – even temporarily – could doom the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine and tarnish all other vaccines as well, he said.

"It creates the perception that these vaccines are dangerous," he said. "The only way out of this pandemic is by vaccination, and if we make people reluctant to be vaccinated, we're going to have a hard time getting out of this pandemic."


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 714377001/

Casting shade on AZ has amped up the anti-vax people. Everyone who has any fear of vaccines is now incredibly hesitant.

If there was a real problem, I would understand the hoopla, but the reality is, in a lockdown situation, people are easily spooked.

There have been numerous articles on the vaccine scare here in the US on how creating doubt on one expedited vaccine is creating doubt on all.

Considering the blood clots aren't above the background level, this has spooked everyone.

The reality is, there won't be enough vaccine in 2021. This comes across as a political hit job.
Some more depth:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/worl ... sions.html

You have a case were regulators said it was safe, now they aren't being clear in communication. That casts doubt on everything the same people said was safe.
Unnecessarily, in my opinion without basis.

In this climate, it is much easier to panic people than unpanic them. In such a vaccine hesitant culture, good luck. Not the UK, the rest of Europe, somehow the UK isn't so vaccine hesitant.

Lightsaber
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23107
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:27 am

SQ22 wrote:
It seems like BioNTech-Pfizer is able to deliver additional vaccines to the EU in the second quarter.

COVID: BioNTech-Pfizer speeds up vaccine delivery to EU

On one hand great news (pulling in 20 million doses from the 3Q too!).

The issue is the EU needs 900 million doses (assuming 2 doses per person and some wastage).

flyguy89 wrote:
J&J was only able to make available 4 million doses (100 million originally ordered) upon approval at the end of last month. Despite receiving $1 billion from the government back in March 2020 that was supposed to include pre-approval production to have large quantities of the vaccine available by early 2021, it won’t be able to supply the full 100 million doses until June this year.

This very much puts the contingency and need to over-order in perspective. J&J was supposed to be the volume of the US vaccination effort. Making new vaccines on this rapid of a schedule is going to have issues. It can be a tragedy, or a country can substitute in another vaccine. e.g., listed CureVac up thread. Or Valneva, or NovaVax... Oh wait, there is one country that keeps doing trials way ahead of everyone else, so they always have first dibs...

We might not like it, but vaccine production is a business. The motivation of the business ensures volumes. The UK has ensured quite a few vaccines that haven't even yet hit the market will have sales.

They also have been very open with data which the world is grateful for.

Everyone does remember the initial Pfizer production target of 100 million doses by the end of 2020, right? (Obviously missed)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/ ... challenges

THe initial warp speed projections were much higher:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... shortfall/

Yea, missed that 300 million by year end 2020.

We can expect some success, but further shortfalls among the various vaccine producers unfortunately.

We won't have enough vaccine for everyone in 2021. :cry2: We need to try.

Lightsaber
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14691
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:21 am

AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

I think clearly AZ does have some explaining to do,


In deed. Preferringly in a court room facing charges.

Best regards
Thomas


"The Commission and EU countries waived the right to sue [AZ] over any delays in coronavirus vaccine deliveries".

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... -lawsuits/.

Oh well.


I am thinking criminal charges for its Management, not "give us some money" from the company.

Best regards
Thomas
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15875
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:24 am

Before I comment on the EU vaccination problems, the USA does have good overall numbers for getting its population vaccinated, but the rates vary from state to state. Certainty there were improvements in ramping up production and distribution since Pres. Biden took over as President, but states still have different priorities for who get the vaccine before others, are slow in setting up vaccination sites and sadly some are prematurely ending mandates for mask use and other public health rules. The UK seems to be doing better than the EU countries but that may be in part due to centralizing its distribution with its NHS and keeping certain public health policies in place.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14691
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:44 am

BaconButty wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
No competing obligations based on which supply chains and which projected production capacities planned at the time?


Exactly. From the APA: "Par 5.1. Initial Europe Doses. Astra Zeneaca shall use its best reasonable efforts to manufacture the initial Europe doses within the EU". In black and bleeding white. .


And if you look in Schedule A that includes two UK manufacturing locations. In black and bleeding white. And if you scroll down it is clear that they have to deliver a total of over 100 million doses until this month is out. So far they have delivered 15 Million.

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/p ... bution-tab

And since they don´t plan to ship any meaningful number for the rest of the month, they will fall short by a whooping ~85%.They have oversold capacity by a factor of SIX.

https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coron ... eu/lang/en

best regards
Thomas
 
marcelh
Posts: 1580
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:48 am

ltbewr wrote:
. The UK seems to be doing better than the EU countries but that may be in part due to centralizing its distribution with its NHS and keeping certain public health policies in place.

Comparing the UK and EU is comparing 1 county with less than 70 million people with 27 countries with 440 million people. Apples and oranges.
 
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seahawk
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:30 am

No, it is the exactly the same. The UK did act, the EU did bet on the wrong horses. (French vaccine)
 
gkirk
Posts: 23456
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2000 3:29 am

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:03 am

I wouldnt be surprised if AZ ended up suing the EU the way things are going.
 
marcelh
Posts: 1580
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:24 am

gkirk wrote:
I wouldnt be surprised if AZ ended up suing the EU the way things are going.

Why? AZ has overpromised and underdelivered. And the EU has stated by the EMA that the AZ vaccin is safe. But never waste a chance to bash the EU.... :scratchchin:
 
marcelh
Posts: 1580
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:28 am

seahawk wrote:
No, it is the exactly the same. The UK did act, the EU did bet on the wrong horses. (French vaccine)

The EU bet on 6 horses and one of those (AZ) can’t deliver according to plan. Most other horses are doing well.
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 4289
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:35 am

The definition of “best reasonable efforts” in the contract appears, in section b, to suggest that this is somewhat of a mirror of the effort put in by the supporting member states in support of the development of the vaccine.

The more effort the member states put in support AZ the more effort would constitute a “Reasonable Effort” on the part of AZ.

It’s like the EU folks have never had tradespeople in before and realised that feeding lunch makes them work faster happier and better...

Fred


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