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JJJ
Posts: 4122
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:37 am

seahawk wrote:
No, it is the exactly the same. The UK did act, the EU did bet on the wrong horses. (French vaccine)


The "French" vaccine (half French, half British actually) was one of 6, and not even the largest among the advance P/O.

300 Pfizer - BioNTech
300+100 AZ
300 Sanofi - GSK
200+200 Janssen
225+180 Curevac
80+80 Moderna
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:46 am

marcelh wrote:
gkirk wrote:
I wouldnt be surprised if AZ ended up suing the EU the way things are going.

Why? AZ has overpromised and underdelivered. And the EU has stated by the EMA that the AZ vaccin is safe. But never waste a chance to bash the EU.... :scratchchin:


and the decision by the appropriate national authorities is pretty much untouchable by legal review in any case.

People seem to forget that even a safe vaccine can have bad production batches, and if a 6-times spike in side effects isn´t ample cause to call a stop and check, then i don´t know what is.

Given that AZ basically won´t deliver for the next 3 weeks anyways a 1~2 week hiatus will not have meaningful effects on vaccination speed anyways. The backlog is just about a weeks worth after all. So if this is sorted out in the next two weeks, likely, the effect is effectively nill.

best regards
Thomas
 
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seahawk
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:47 am

marcelh wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, it is the exactly the same. The UK did act, the EU did bet on the wrong horses. (French vaccine)

The EU bet on 6 horses and one of those (AZ) can’t deliver according to plan. Most other horses are doing well.


Yes, but they are too slow to change the horses quickly. It is good to see Pfizer over perform and I hope J+J will also deliver as promised.
 
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seahawk
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:49 am

JJJ wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, it is the exactly the same. The UK did act, the EU did bet on the wrong horses. (French vaccine)


The "French" vaccine (half French, half British actually) was one of 6, and not even the largest among the advance P/O.

300 Pfizer - BioNTech
300+100 AZ
300 Sanofi - GSK
200+200 Janssen
225+180 Curevac
80+80 Moderna


You need to look at the numbers ordered by fore approved. And it is still strange that the order for Pfizer (which is the oldest approved) is still not higher then the Sanofi order, which is far away from getting approval.
 
marcelh
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:00 am

seahawk wrote:
marcelh wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, it is the exactly the same. The UK did act, the EU did bet on the wrong horses. (French vaccine)

The EU bet on 6 horses and one of those (AZ) can’t deliver according to plan. Most other horses are doing well.


Yes, but they are too slow to change the horses quickly. It is good to see Pfizer over perform and I hope J+J will also deliver as promised.

You also forget the EU needs a thoroughbred just because of the volume needed. The UK only needed a donkey.... And about “changing horses”: there aren’t any horses left which can deliver right now. Some new horses will arrive, they aren’t able to make a meaningful change in three months time.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:05 am

seahawk wrote:
marcelh wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, it is the exactly the same. The UK did act, the EU did bet on the wrong horses. (French vaccine)

The EU bet on 6 horses and one of those (AZ) can’t deliver according to plan. Most other horses are doing well.


Yes, but they are too slow to change the horses quickly. It is good to see Pfizer over perform and I hope J+J will also deliver as promised.


That fact that AZ keeps delays secret as long as they can may have something to do with that.

EMA announces to approve the vaccine next friday. Suddenly AZ realizes that, instead of 100 Million doses, they can only deliver 38 Million doses in Q1.
AZ insists this is just a temporary setback, the shortfall will be made up and of course the order will be fulfilled in full (300+100 Million till June 30th)
As slow as possible AZ walks back delivery commitments, ultimately ending up with 15 Million instead of 38, and only ~100 million in the first half year.
No more commitment to make up any shortfall, as of now they barely plan to deliver 300 million by the end of the year. The vast majority only in the 3rd and 4th quarter.

best regards
Thomas
 
marcelh
Posts: 1592
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:05 am

seahawk wrote:
JJJ wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, it is the exactly the same. The UK did act, the EU did bet on the wrong horses. (French vaccine)


The "French" vaccine (half French, half British actually) was one of 6, and not even the largest among the advance P/O.

300 Pfizer - BioNTech
300+100 AZ
300 Sanofi - GSK
200+200 Janssen
225+180 Curevac
80+80 Moderna


You need to look at the numbers ordered by fore approved. And it is still strange that the order for Pfizer (which is the oldest approved) is still not higher then the Sanofi order, which is far away from getting approval.


https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_9
Already posted earlier in this thread. EU has ordered an additional 200 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer with an option for another 100 million. To be delivered from Q2-2021
 
JJJ
Posts: 4122
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:16 am

seahawk wrote:
JJJ wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, it is the exactly the same. The UK did act, the EU did bet on the wrong horses. (French vaccine)


The "French" vaccine (half French, half British actually) was one of 6, and not even the largest among the advance P/O.

300 Pfizer - BioNTech
300+100 AZ
300 Sanofi - GSK
200+200 Janssen
225+180 Curevac
80+80 Moderna


You need to look at the numbers ordered by fore approved. And it is still strange that the order for Pfizer (which is the oldest approved) is still not higher then the Sanofi order, which is far away from getting approval.



Those are the advance orders. The situation now is different.
 
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seahawk
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:30 am

tommy1808 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
marcelh wrote:
The EU bet on 6 horses and one of those (AZ) can’t deliver according to plan. Most other horses are doing well.


Yes, but they are too slow to change the horses quickly. It is good to see Pfizer over perform and I hope J+J will also deliver as promised.


That fact that AZ keeps delays secret as long as they can may have something to do with that.

EMA announces to approve the vaccine next friday. Suddenly AZ realizes that, instead of 100 Million doses, they can only deliver 38 Million doses in Q1.
AZ insists this is just a temporary setback, the shortfall will be made up and of course the order will be fulfilled in full (300+100 Million till June 30th)
As slow as possible AZ walks back delivery commitments, ultimately ending up with 15 Million instead of 38, and only ~100 million in the first half year.
No more commitment to make up any shortfall, as of now they barely plan to deliver 300 million by the end of the year. The vast majority only in the 3rd and 4th quarter.

best regards
Thomas


I see AZ as a zero at the moment. The task is to get the people vaccinated before the summer without AZ.So stock up on Pfizer, Moderna and J+J.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:00 pm

seahawk wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Yes, but they are too slow to change the horses quickly. It is good to see Pfizer over perform and I hope J+J will also deliver as promised.


That fact that AZ keeps delays secret as long as they can may have something to do with that.

EMA announces to approve the vaccine next friday. Suddenly AZ realizes that, instead of 100 Million doses, they can only deliver 38 Million doses in Q1.
AZ insists this is just a temporary setback, the shortfall will be made up and of course the order will be fulfilled in full (300+100 Million till June 30th)
As slow as possible AZ walks back delivery commitments, ultimately ending up with 15 Million instead of 38, and only ~100 million in the first half year.
No more commitment to make up any shortfall, as of now they barely plan to deliver 300 million by the end of the year. The vast majority only in the 3rd and 4th quarter.

best regards
Thomas


I see AZ as a zero at the moment. The task is to get the people vaccinated before the summer without AZ.So stock up on Pfizer, Moderna and J+J.


Oh, i agree... with the numbers AZ is promising, useless since the only consistent thing they do is delivering much less, they will not move the needle by more than a few weeks even in the best of cases.

Had they been honest at any point, things could have moved sooner.

Even with those deliveries, for each person vaccinated with AZ there are almost 5.5 vaccinated with Biontech/Moderna. It should have been close to the same number even with the downward revised schedule from mid January, if they had delivered what they sold it should be twice as much. In part this is because those two out-deliver AZ by a factor of ~3.5, but also that AZ is so freaking unreliable with delivery dates that 2nd doses still have to be held back essentially in full and appointments for 1st doses can only be made when the stuff has actually arrived. This drags application 4.5 weeks behind delivery....

best regards
Thomas
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:02 pm

Interesting comment from Ursula von der Leyen today suggesting there may be export restrictions imminent from the EU to countries with high vaccination rates: -

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-eu- ... s-12248671

I will leave others to decide whether this is fair or holding others back, though I foresee more diplomatic spats on the horizon if export blocks are carried out like with the recent batch of vaccines bound from Italy to Australia.

I can't help but think some of von der Leyen's efforts would be better spent improving vaccination rates within the EU. I know it's down to individual nations to distribute vaccines to citizens, the Commission merely procured them and distributed to nations, but what use is having hundreds of millions of shots to hand if uptake is low? I don't know how much of the smaller uptake in comparison to countries such as the UK is down to slow deliveries of vaccines, but when I look at what's going on with the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and comments made by Macron questioning its effectiveness, I don't think governments of some EU nations are blameless here.

I should also add I'm not questioning why some countries took the decision to temporarily suspend using the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.
 
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BaconButty
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:19 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
BaconButty wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
No competing obligations based on which supply chains and which projected production capacities planned at the time?


Exactly. From the APA: "Par 5.1. Initial Europe Doses. Astra Zeneaca shall use its best reasonable efforts to manufacture the initial Europe doses within the EU". In black and bleeding white. .


And if you look in Schedule A that includes two UK manufacturing locations. In black and bleeding white.


Tommy, you're confusing where the vaccines were intended to be produced (clearly the EU proper per para 5.1) and where, if the "best efforts" failed, they might be sourced from. Schedule A, as you say, but also para 5.4 - which (only for that para) extends the definition of EU to include the UK for the purposes of not requiring prior written authorisation - but vaccines can otherwise be sourced anywhere in the world.

It's also worth noting that Schedule A won't have existed in the initial contract as para 5.5 makes clear: "AstraZeneca shall notify the Commission as soon as (a) it selects initial manufacturing sites and (b) it changes any of its manufacturing sites for the Vaccine."

But some times in your life you have to ask yourself "am I a f***ing nutjob"? I do it. Every time Man United get yet another penalty. Then I have to ask myself - do I really think there's a referees conspiracy they've managed to keep quiet for years? Likewise, you might want to ask yourself if you really believe that you're understanding of "no competing obligations" is true. Are you suggesting that the UK and AZ were lying about a contract last May? Playing the long game to murder European grannies? Or is the simpler truth that, as far as the intent of the APA, there were and are no competing obligations?

tommy1808 wrote:
And if you scroll down it is clear that they have to deliver a total of over 100 million doses until this month is out. So far they have delivered 15 Million.

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/p ... bution-tab

And since they don´t plan to ship any meaningful number for the rest of the month, they will fall short by a whooping ~85%.They have oversold capacity by a factor of SIX.

https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coron ... eu/lang/en

best regards
Thomas


Every man and his dog knows they're well behind. They were meant to supply 30m to the UK by last September. Not sure what you're trying to say.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:23 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
diplomatic spats on the horizon if export blocks are carried out like with the recent batch of vaccines bound from Italy to Australia.


even their PM (iirc..?) said something along the lines of "Not happy, but understandable".

but what use is having hundreds of millions of shots to hand if uptake is low? I don't know how much of the smaller uptake in comparison to countries such as the UK is down to slow deliveries of vaccines, but when I look at what's going on with the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and comments made by Macron questioning its effectiveness, I don't think governments of some EU nations are blameless here..


there are no hundreds of millions of shots at hand, and there isn´t an uptake problem either.

For Biontech/Moderna 86.4% of doses delivered to hubs have been administered, the delta is logistics from hub to vaccination center and a small safety buffer for 2nd shots.
For AZ uptake, and we are talking about puny 14.8 million doses total, is 49,26% between hubs and arms. Much of that is because given how utterly unreliable AZ delivery dates are appointments are pretty much just made when the stuff actually arrived at the hubs, and then the 2nd dose has to be kept in storage for three weeks because who knows if there will be deliveries in the next three weeks. Just a few days back AZ announced "Oh, sorry.. just came in, pretty much no vaccine for you guys for the next three weeks". Without essentially 100% of 2nd shots held back, that would cause a major hick-up.

That is why stopping AZ vaccinations for a bit is no problem at all, since there won´t be vaccine deliveries from AZ anyhow, and AZ vaccinations use different infrastructure due to easy handling, so there is no wasted resources. If this safety check takes two week, three weeks from now not a single person less than otherwise would have been vaccinated, and not a single person has to wait for their first shot, since there is no AZ vaccine for those.

best regards
Thomas
 
sabenapilot
Topic Author
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:42 pm

EU threatens to halt Covid vaccine exports to UK unless it gets 'fair share'

“We want to see reciprocity and proportionality in exports and we are ready to use whatever tool we need to deliver on that,” Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday.

Von der Leyen said the EU had received more than 300 requests for overseas vaccine shipments over the past six weeks and refused just one, and the bloc had exported 41m doses to 33 countries. However, she said the bloc had exported 10m doses to the UK in the past six weeks (mainly Pfizer), making it “country number one as far as exports from the EU is concerned”, while still waiting for doses (from AZ) to come from the UK.

If the vaccine supply situation did not change, she said, “we will have to reflect on how to make exports to vaccine-producing countries dependent on their level of openness".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... fair-share
 
TheSonntag
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:53 pm

Biontech will deliver more in Q2 than initially planned, due to their Marburg factory already producing. But this is not enough. Curevac seemingly expects market authorisation in May or June, which will make the delivery possible in July. Too late for the summer.

The next two months in Germany will be hard. Our Corona numbers are going completely in the wrong direction due to B 117 mutation (and opening of schools). From may on, we probably will have a significant increase in numbers.

This is bad for the EU. It is also bad luck, and complaining now is not helpful, but the EU did not win out of this failure.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:54 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
and the bloc had exported 41m doses to 33 countries.


afaik that number only reflects exports since export controls came into effect, i.e. January 30th.That would appear to be about half of production.

best regards
Thomas
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:09 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
Biontech will deliver more in Q2 than initially planned, due to their Marburg factory already producing. But this is not enough. Curevac seemingly expects market authorisation in May or June, which will make the delivery possible in July. Too late for the summer..


Maybe not entirely too late, apparently they have been producing for stock for a couple of weeks already: https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/baden-wue ... n-100.html

best regards
Thomas
 
ElPistolero
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:25 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
Interesting comment from Ursula von der Leyen today suggesting there may be export restrictions imminent from the EU to countries with high vaccination rates: -

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-eu- ... s-12248671

I will leave others to decide whether this is fair or holding others back, though I foresee more diplomatic spats on the horizon if export blocks are carried out like with the recent batch of vaccines bound from Italy to Australia.

I can't help but think some of von der Leyen's efforts would be better spent improving vaccination rates within the EU. I know it's down to individual nations to distribute vaccines to citizens, the Commission merely procured them and distributed to nations, but what use is having hundreds of millions of shots to hand if uptake is low? I don't know how much of the smaller uptake in comparison to countries such as the UK is down to slow deliveries of vaccines, but when I look at what's going on with the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and comments made by Macron questioning its effectiveness, I don't think governments of some EU nations are blameless here.

I should also add I'm not questioning why some countries took the decision to temporarily suspend using the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.


Most of it is rooted in grey area.

- If Italy is experiencing a surge in cases/deaths, and Australia isn’t, what takes precedence - increasing vaccinations in Italy and saving more lives than they would in Australia, or honouring contracts on principle, even if it means more Italians die? (The nuance here is that Italy hasn’t put a permanent ban on exports to Australia, so it’s a delay rather than a ban).

- If the EU is experiencing a surge in cases, should it be exporting 10 million vaccines to the UK with nothing coming the other way? After all, those 10 million vaccines could be used by the EU to do precisely what you think the EU should be doing: vaccinating EU citizens.

- As to the whole AZ/EU spat, I don’t know if this has made it here (probably has), but the initial narrative was factually incorrect and blown up by the side-by-side contract comparison. TL;DR: both the EU and UK contracts are based on “best efforts”. The EU signed its contract with AZ one day before the UK did. See here:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/17/europe/u ... index.html

Have the EU/European countries bungled it? Maybe. Maybe not. Why is it a race to begin with? It was always inevitable that countries that produced vaccines would progress faster than countries that don’t. I think it’s clear that most EU countries are doing better than similar sized, similarly affluent non-EU countries like Australia or Canada. Is that a function of being in vaccine-producing EU, or not? Would they fare better outside the EU, or would they fare like Australia or Canada?
 
Reinhardt
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:42 pm

tommy1808 wrote:

Given that AZ basically won´t deliver for the next 3 weeks anyways a 1~2 week hiatus will not have meaningful effects on vaccination speed anyways. The backlog is just about a weeks worth after all. So if this is sorted out in the next two weeks, likely, the effect is effectively nill.


In my city in Germany there was a pause throughout most of March so no vaccinations took place at all. They then received a large delivery of AZ and said most 70-80 years olds should be able to be vaccinated in the next 2-3 weeks. With the news about AZ being halted, all appointments have been cancelled and we now wait to see if / when they can re-start. We are so far behind.

Meanwhile infection rates here are rocketing again, and many areas of the state are well over 200 per 100,000 again. Talks of hard lockdown coming in again..which will not go down well at all, considering the protests that happened only last weekend. My fear is, if this goes on much longer (this bad organisation especially in Germany) certain parts of the population really will have had enough.

Here there is one location in the city you can go to for vaccinations, instead of at your doctors or local clinics. You can only apply to get an appointment online. Compared to how it's been organised in the UK (my parents live there and have been vaccinated), I think it's a mess here. The doctors here are complaining and saying having organised this centrally isn't working, but nobody will change it. Typically German (some goods things here but the way paperwork and how centralised everything is is not good).
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:52 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
With the news about AZ being halted, all appointments have been cancelled and we now wait to see if / when they can re-start. We are so far behind.


probably soon. Either this is a statistical hitch, or a bad batch/es. I´d be very surprised if catching up takes long either. Its not like vaccination centers are overworked....

The doctors here are complaining and saying having organised this centrally isn't working, but nobody will change it. Typically German (some goods things here but the way paperwork and how centralised everything is is not good).


Oh yes, a little bit or Pareto would be nice instead of trying to make sure that vaccinations are strict by priority groups and god forbid that anyone gets vaccinated before it is their turn.Of course that is easier to do when you are swimming in vaccine.

best regards
Thomas
 
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par13del
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:00 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
EU threatens to halt Covid vaccine exports to UK unless it gets 'fair share'

“We want to see reciprocity and proportionality in exports and we are ready to use whatever tool we need to deliver on that,” Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday.

Von der Leyen said the EU had received more than 300 requests for overseas vaccine shipments over the past six weeks and refused just one, and the bloc had exported 41m doses to 33 countries. However, she said the bloc had exported 10m doses to the UK in the past six weeks (mainly Pfizer), making it “country number one as far as exports from the EU is concerned”, while still waiting for doses (from AZ) to come from the UK.

If the vaccine supply situation did not change, she said, “we will have to reflect on how to make exports to vaccine-producing countries dependent on their level of openness".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... fair-share

India has double the population of the EU, is producing their own vaccine plus others under license, yes they are not exporting their local vaccine but somehow, they are finding ways like the EU to export as well as deliver some doses to other nations for free (as gifts)? Perhaps some officials from the EU and the UK should visit India to get a handle on how their production facilities can be more efficient?
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:03 pm

par13del wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
EU threatens to halt Covid vaccine exports to UK unless it gets 'fair share'

“We want to see reciprocity and proportionality in exports and we are ready to use whatever tool we need to deliver on that,” Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday.

Von der Leyen said the EU had received more than 300 requests for overseas vaccine shipments over the past six weeks and refused just one, and the bloc had exported 41m doses to 33 countries. However, she said the bloc had exported 10m doses to the UK in the past six weeks (mainly Pfizer), making it “country number one as far as exports from the EU is concerned”, while still waiting for doses (from AZ) to come from the UK.

If the vaccine supply situation did not change, she said, “we will have to reflect on how to make exports to vaccine-producing countries dependent on their level of openness".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... fair-share

India has double the population of the EU, is producing their own vaccine plus others under license, yes they are not exporting their local vaccine but somehow, they are finding ways like the EU to export as well as deliver some doses to other nations for free (as gifts)? Perhaps some officials from the EU and the UK should visit India to get a handle on how their production facilities can be more efficient?


don´t worry, the UK will get 10 Millon doses AZ doses from India....

https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SKCN2AV0A2

best regards
Thomas
 
JJJ
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:04 pm

BaconButty wrote:
But some times in your life you have to ask yourself "am I a f***ing nutjob"? I do it. Every time Man United get yet another penalty. Then I have to ask myself - do I really think there's a referees conspiracy they've managed to keep quiet for years? Likewise, you might want to ask yourself if you really believe that you're understanding of "no competing obligations" is true. Are you suggesting that the UK and AZ were lying about a contract last May? Playing the long game to murder European grannies? Or is the simpler truth that, as far as the intent of the APA, there were and are no competing obligations?


The simpler truth is that AZ oversold their capacity during negotiations, then spread it even thinner when it had trouble scaling up.

It's extremely common to paint your capacities in the best possible light to get contracts then kick it to the long grass and use stalling tactics when required to deliver. It's the old sales vs operations conflict. You can put anything on an excel sheet and a powerpoint presentation if it supports your case in front of a customer. Companies set aggressive targets in high-risk products all the time.

It just turns out this time around there's not just lives at stake, but a whole media frenzy around it, which tends to complicate things a lot. AZ can bet this is going to end up in court, and going to court with one of your biggest if not your biggest customer doesn't look good no matter how you slice it.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:09 pm

JJJ wrote:
AZ can bet this is going to end up in court, and going to court with one of your biggest if not your biggest customer doesn't look good no matter how you slice it.


sabotaging getting a Dutch production site earmarked for EU demand certified by not providing required paperwork to the EMA for months will be hard to argue away with "ramp up problems" as well. Especially since we now know that facility is someone part of the UK exclusive production chain. And AZ still designated it for EU production ..... once it is certified there better be tens of millions of doses sitting in the warehouse.

best regards
Thomas
 
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par13del
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:43 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
don´t worry, the UK will get 10 Millon doses AZ doses from India....

https://www.reuters.com/article/health- ... SKCN2AV0A2

best regards
Thomas

In the grand scheme of things not the point I was trying to make, but.....it is what it is.....
 
ElPistolero
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:43 pm

par13del wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
EU threatens to halt Covid vaccine exports to UK unless it gets 'fair share'

“We want to see reciprocity and proportionality in exports and we are ready to use whatever tool we need to deliver on that,” Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday.

Von der Leyen said the EU had received more than 300 requests for overseas vaccine shipments over the past six weeks and refused just one, and the bloc had exported 41m doses to 33 countries. However, she said the bloc had exported 10m doses to the UK in the past six weeks (mainly Pfizer), making it “country number one as far as exports from the EU is concerned”, while still waiting for doses (from AZ) to come from the UK.

If the vaccine supply situation did not change, she said, “we will have to reflect on how to make exports to vaccine-producing countries dependent on their level of openness".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... fair-share

India has double the population of the EU, is producing their own vaccine plus others under license, yes they are not exporting their local vaccine but somehow, they are finding ways like the EU to export as well as deliver some doses to other nations for free (as gifts)? Perhaps some officials from the EU and the UK should visit India to get a handle on how their production facilities can be more efficient?


India-EU is not a good comparison given relative caseloads over the last 2-3 months. They managed to flatten the curve somehow - weather, local immunity, whatever - or were under reporting it. If case loads go up like they’re threatening to, India’s approach might change. Remember how it put a ban on hydroxychloroquine exports last year?

Contrast that to the EU where case loads are higher per capita and every country in the world is putting pressure on those supply chains.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:41 pm

I hope the EU (and van der Leyen) don't go through with their threat against the UK. As I said in an earlier post: don't waver on your moral compass.
Anything else would be faltering under political pressure (mostly right wing political pressure I might add), and set a bad precedent for breaching you own word (stay the adult in the room).
The mesure would seem especially childish considering the effect it would have on the UK and Europe. Stopping the export of 15 Mio vaccine to the UK (just a random number) would cost the UK about 10% (2 shots) while giving the EU not even 2% more...
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:43 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
How will the EU recover from this as it tarnishes all vaccines.


I'm not sure why you see the blame so one sided. [...]

to me the EU strategie doesn't seem that bad:
1. Take time to review the data provided, when data is missed, require it, and when the regulatory body has enough confidance, autorise the vaccine (as the EU did with AZ)
2. When newspaper start reporting death cases of younger people, just after having taken a particular vaccine, temporearly susspend the vaccine, let the regulatory body cheek that they haven't missed anything, and restart unsing it (As the EU will do with AZ).


It certainly is an issue of managing public perception wrt. the AZ vaccine... this happens to be a topic which played out in my own home last night: my wife came in and said she got a message inviting her to get her vaccine. She said she wasn't sure since she expects they're trying to dump the AZ vaccine on unsuspecting patients now that all the bad news is scaring people off and that she wants another vaccine instead. She asked my opinion and I told her I certainly have issues about how AZ has been getting contracts, not fulfilling those contracts and not performing studies properly... but on the evidence in the field it seems to be effective and the blood clot thing seems overblown - so I'd take it. She's waiting to see the EMA verdict tomorrow before she responds to her call-up message.

So there is an example of exactly why the EMA has to do what it is currently doing... if they hadn't my wife might have refused the vaccination - despite having spent the entire last year fretting about the virus! (By which I mean the EMA is right to review the AZ vaccine in light of all the bad press - they are not the source of that bad press AFAIK, which I expect is down to a combination of over-cautious national authorities and excitable bad-news-loving media...)

One thing which is a bit odd... my wife is not in the 50+ age group being targeted in the UK at the moment - in fact she's younger than me so it's a bit of a mystery that she's been called up already.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:09 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
The mesure would seem especially childish considering the effect it would have on the UK and Europe. Stopping the export of 15 Mio vaccine to the UK (just a random number) would cost the UK about 10% (2 shots) while giving the EU not even 2% more...


Now that is overly simplistic. Those doses in the EU would exclusively vaccinate the most vulnerable parts of the population, while the UK is long past those groups I.e. the same amount of vaccine would save far more lives.

Letting 2-3 of your 80 year plus walk the plank to save a singe 60 year old in the UK doesn't exactly sound moral, nor ethical.

Best regards
Thomas
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:22 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Now that is overly simplistic. Those doses in the EU would exclusively vaccinate the most vulnerable parts of the population, while the UK is long past those groups I.e. the same amount of vaccine would save far more lives.

Letting 2-3 of your 80 year plus walk the plank to save a singe 60 year old in the UK doesn't exactly sound moral, nor ethical.

Best regards
Thomas

You make a really good point. And I would fully agree with it, if we were talking about the ideology behind the US and UK vaccine strategy versus the one followed by the EU and others. I would also agree with you if the situation was much more dire in the EU. But as it stands now I expected those persons at higher risk to be fully vaccinated in the next two month (without or with export ban to the UK). Hence I see the spat between the UK and EU mostly about full population vaccination and hopefully a return to more normal times.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:38 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
But as it stands now I expected those persons at higher risk to be fully vaccinated in the next two month (without or with export ban to the UK).


The Delta would probably about 1k+ avoidable deaths.

Best regards
Thomas
 
gkirk
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:14 pm

It appears AZ have reached a block with supplying the UK now too. A delay of approx 1 month
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:01 am

The EU UK spat is heating up:
https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/uk-faces ... 06345.html

Hancock said the vaccine had been developed with funding from the British government and Britain had a legal right to the shots.

"We set up the supply chain, not just here in the UK but indeed, we helped set up the supply chain in the EU," he said.

"We legally signed a contract for delivery of the first 100 million doses here for people in the UK, as you would expect, both to ensure that people in the UK can get their jab and also because this is a UK-funded, UK-delivered vaccine."


I am not a lawyer, but with the UK cutting appointments and all the nastiness... I am grabbing popcorn.

Lightsaber
Late add, from same link:
A letter sent around to the state-run health service said there would be a "significant reduction in weekly supply available from manufacturers" from the week commencing March 29, meaning volumes for first doses will be significantly constrained.

Manufacturers predict this will continue for four weeks due to cuts in national inbound vaccines supply, it continued.


Rhoo Rhoo :box:
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:46 am

lightsaber wrote:
"We legally signed a contract for delivery of the first 100 million doses here for people in the UK, as you would expect, both to ensure that people in the UK can get their jab and also because this is a UK-funded, UK-delivered vaccine."[/i]:


Well, the EU ordered first, and since the UK said "first order, first served" when they still maintained the fiction it was them, a snarky reply is kinda obvious.

Best regards
Thomas
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1535
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:03 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
diplomatic spats on the horizon if export blocks are carried out like with the recent batch of vaccines bound from Italy to Australia.


even their PM (iirc..?) said something along the lines of "Not happy, but understandable".


I mentioned the recent Italy to Australia shipment as an example of an export block. I don't foresee future blocks being as well received as that was initially, however I see Australia are now calling for 1 million doses to be exported for Papua New Guinea: -

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global ... ew-guinea/

tommy1808 wrote:
there are no hundreds of millions of shots at hand, and there isn´t an uptake problem either.


I never implied there was hundreds of millions of shots at hand. My point which I suspect you might have missed is that if uptake is flagging then how is having extra supply to hand going to help unless demand increases?

As for there not being an uptake problem, is this article lying then?

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronav ... e-numbers/

N.B. That was written before some countries temporarily halted using the Oxford/AZ vaccine.

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
One thing which is a bit odd... my wife is not in the 50+ age group being targeted in the UK at the moment - in fact she's younger than me so it's a bit of a mystery that she's been called up already.


It could be the case that where you and your wife lives is an area that has more doses to hand than there are residents in the priority groups and that those that fall into the more vulnerable categories have already been vaccinated. Assuming other areas have enough doses, they're probably now working their way through the lists locally to use up what they have. Personally, the more people that accept calls to get vaccinated the better, especially given that as schools are now open many parents (but by no means all) with children at school age are aged below 50.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:20 pm

The whole thing is as predictable as it is silly.

India has decided to halt exports due to rising case loads, to the UK’s obvious detriment.

“Britain’s vaccine supply setback took a new turn today when it emerged that India’s government had delayed five million doses of the Oxford jab being sent to the UK.”

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/ ... 24900.html

But, as usual, it’s all about Europe. Funny thing is - I expect India to go more or less uncriticized over this. The UK can’t afford to alienate one of its most important hypothetical post-Brexit markets. They’ll stick to using the EU as a punching bag.

Brexit - the gift that keeps on giving.
 
GDB
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:41 pm

SomebodyinTLS, your wife can rest assured;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-clotting

30 cases out of 18M doses in the UK and EU, some on here need to wind their necks in.

Macron had no sound reason, when he said it, to trash AZ, other than it was right after France's Pasteur Institute failed in their vaccine development, prompting a cry of 'what is happening to France?' in domestic politics.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 5:11 pm

GDB wrote:
30 cases out of 18M doses in the


That's old data, Germany alone is now up to 13 cases/1.6 million doses.
Still a hell lot better than not getting vaccinated.

Best regards
Thomas
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 5:20 pm

GDB wrote:
SomebodyinTLS, your wife can rest assured;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-clotting

30 cases out of 18M doses in the UK and EU, some on here need to wind their necks in.

Macron had no sound reason, when he said it, to trash AZ, other than it was right after France's Pasteur Institute failed in their vaccine development, prompting a cry of 'what is happening to France?' in domestic politics.

Unfortunately, I think the attack on AZ was a political deflection. I personally believe to distract from the EU vaccine procurement strategy. With a new wave hitting, buckle up, politics will, in my opinion, become more rancheros.

What will be even worse is the pause just instilled doubt, in my opinion. Approved again:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.nytimes. ... e.amp.html

I will be looking to see how EU vaccination rates change because of this kerfuffle.

Lightsaber
 
flipdewaf
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 5:59 pm

I am slowly working my way through the contract for AZ and the EU and two things that catch my eye are section 1.9b in the definition of best reasonable efforts it states:
"...the activites and degree of effort that governments would undertake or use in supporting their contractor in the development of the vaccine having regard to the urgent needfor a vaccine to end a global pandemic.." I read that as AZ will determine best reasonable efforts as a reciprocal of the/a effort that the government gives to them.

In section 6.2, Capacity limitations
"To the extent AsraZeneca's performance under this agreement is impeded by any such competing agreements, AstraZeneca shall not be deemed in breach of this Agreement as a result of any such delay due to the aforementioned competing agreement(s)."

Seems to me that there is nothing in the contract about competing agreements outside of this and indicates that this wouldn't constitute a breach of contract. I am struggling to find where the issue with regarding the illegal behavior of AZ?

Fred
 
ElPistolero
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 6:34 pm

lightsaber wrote:
GDB wrote:
SomebodyinTLS, your wife can rest assured;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-clotting

30 cases out of 18M doses in the UK and EU, some on here need to wind their necks in.

Macron had no sound reason, when he said it, to trash AZ, other than it was right after France's Pasteur Institute failed in their vaccine development, prompting a cry of 'what is happening to France?' in domestic politics.

Unfortunately, I think the attack on AZ was a political deflection. I personally believe to distract from the EU vaccine procurement strategy. With a new wave hitting, buckle up, politics will, in my opinion, become more rancheros.

What will be even worse is the pause just instilled doubt, in my opinion. Approved again:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.nytimes. ... e.amp.html

I will be looking to see how EU vaccination rates change because of this kerfuffle.

Lightsaber


I don’t think Macron’s comments matter nearly as much as the recent reports of AZ-linked deaths. Any new vaccine hesitation will be focused on AZ, and primarily because of the deaths. Not what EU leaders say.

Says a lot that health authorities in countries where people don’t care what European leaders say, feel compelled to do damage control:

“Health Canada noted “none of the identified batches under investigation have been shipped to Canada.”

“To date, no adverse events related to the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, or the version manufactured by the Serum Institute of India, have been reported to Health Canada or the Public Health Agency of Canada,” they said.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7695938/astr ... s-vaccine/

Percentages may be low but absolute numbers resonate. If deaths increase, countries relying on AZ are going to witness a lot of vaccine hesitation.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14691
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 7:11 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
Seems to me that there is nothing in the contract about competing agreements outside of this and indicates that this wouldn't constitute a breach of contract. I am struggling to find where the issue with regarding the illegal behavior of AZ?


I guess you haven't gotten to Section 13.1(e) then.

If they claim competing obligations, as they do, it means they lied about their existence. As they did.

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail ... 5babf389ff

Best regards
Thomas
 
flipdewaf
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:50 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Seems to me that there is nothing in the contract about competing agreements outside of this and indicates that this wouldn't constitute a breach of contract. I am struggling to find where the issue with regarding the illegal behavior of AZ?


I guess you haven't gotten to Section 13.1(e) then.

If they claim competing obligations, as they do, it means they lied about their existence. As they did.

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail ... 5babf389ff

Best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Seems to me that there is nothing in the contract about competing agreements outside of this and indicates that this wouldn't constitute a breach of contract. I am struggling to find where the issue with regarding the illegal behavior of AZ?


I guess you haven't gotten to Section 13.1(e) then.

If they claim competing obligations, as they do, it means they lied about their existence. As they did.

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail ... 5babf389ff

Best regards
Thomas

Weird, they try to justify a common use of a phrase that has a definition within the contract and then only use half of the definition. Strangely not that bit that states that best reasonable efforts are those which could be matched efforts by the other party in facilitation (which quite frankly is a complete cluster f^ck).

Section 13.1 (e)says 2 things, one of which appears to say that there is nothing to prevent them fulfilling the obligations of the contract, as you can see from the previous statements those obligations are being breached. The other part is that there is no third party obligated in the initial European doses, the uk contract has nothing to do with the the European doses, just the UK ones.

It all feels rather tenuous and political in nature at the moment and more about deflecting attention away from how the centralised EU vaccine program is very very poorly managed.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
JJJ
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:31 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
.

Section 13.1 (e)says 2 things, one of which appears to say that there is nothing to prevent them fulfilling the obligations of the contract, as you can see from the previous statements those obligations are being breached. The other part is that there is no third party obligated in the initial European doses, the uk contract has nothing to do with the the European doses, just the UK ones.


British production sites are envisioned in the contract as possible sources.

"AstraZeneca shall use its Best Reasonable Efforts to manufacture the vaccine at manufacturing sites located within the EU (which for the purpose of this Section 5.4 only shall include the United Kingdom)”

They've essentially sold the British made vaccines twice.

In case rollout would have gone smoothly in the continental sites nothing would have happened but by including UK sites they have signed themselves a competing obligation.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:35 pm

JJJ wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
.

Section 13.1 (e)says 2 things, one of which appears to say that there is nothing to prevent them fulfilling the obligations of the contract, as you can see from the previous statements those obligations are being breached. The other part is that there is no third party obligated in the initial European doses, the uk contract has nothing to do with the the European doses, just the UK ones.


British production sites are envisioned in the contract as possible sources.

"AstraZeneca shall use its Best Reasonable Efforts to manufacture the vaccine at manufacturing sites located within the EU (which for the purpose of this Section 5.4 only shall include the United Kingdom)”

They've essentially sold the British made vaccines twice.

In case rollout would have gone smoothly in the continental sites nothing would have happened but by including UK sites they have signed themselves a competing obligation.

And best reasonable efforts means mirroring the effort put in by the EU as set out in 1.9. More commonly known as “throwing under the bus”. The EU have shown what best reasonable effort looks like.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
DTVG
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:56 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
It all feels rather tenuous and political in nature at the moment and more about deflecting attention away from how the centralised EU vaccine program is very very poorly managed.


Correct.

The incompetent EU had one major chance to show how marvelous their whole centralized project is and they screwed it up. It probably doesn’t help that complete idiots get sent to Brussels and nobody really is responsible for anything...
 
ElPistolero
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 19, 2021 1:34 am

DTVG wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
It all feels rather tenuous and political in nature at the moment and more about deflecting attention away from how the centralised EU vaccine program is very very poorly managed.


Correct.

The incompetent EU had one major chance to show how marvelous their whole centralized project is and they screwed it up. It probably doesn’t help that complete idiots get sent to Brussels and nobody really is responsible for anything...


It’s true. If only they get around to doing what India and the US are already doing.

“Speaking in the Indian parliament on Thursday, foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar denied there was a ban on vaccine exports but said supply to other countries was “based on assessment of adequate availability at home.”
...
“ In interviews Mr Poonawalla also accused Mr Biden of “raw materials nationalism” after the president last month signed the Defence Production Act, a Korean War-era piece of legislation allowing exports to be blocked from leaving the US in national emergencies.”
...
“ Mr Poonawalla said Mr Biden’s decision threatened to hold back production, meaning the company had been instructed to prioritise India and other countries with higher case rates.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... -vaccines/

Meanwhile Canada is receiving Pfizer vaccines from Belgium.

The “incompetence” that the EU has shown does seem to boil down to not being as hard-nosed as the US and India about deciding where (and when) vaccines produced in the EU go to other countries.

Bit of a damned if they do, damned if they don’t, eh?

Gotta marvel at some of the hypocrisy here. Every single democratic country is playing vaccine nationalism, whether they publicly admit it or not. It’s the reality of democracy.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 19, 2021 2:03 am

ElPistolero wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
GDB wrote:
SomebodyinTLS, your wife can rest assured;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... d-clotting

30 cases out of 18M doses in the UK and EU, some on here need to wind their necks in.

Macron had no sound reason, when he said it, to trash AZ, other than it was right after France's Pasteur Institute failed in their vaccine development, prompting a cry of 'what is happening to France?' in domestic politics.

Unfortunately, I think the attack on AZ was a political deflection. I personally believe to distract from the EU vaccine procurement strategy. With a new wave hitting, buckle up, politics will, in my opinion, become more rancheros.

What will be even worse is the pause just instilled doubt, in my opinion. Approved again:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.nytimes. ... e.amp.html

I will be looking to see how EU vaccination rates change because of this kerfuffle.

Lightsaber


I don’t think Macron’s comments matter nearly as much as the recent reports of AZ-linked deaths. Any new vaccine hesitation will be focused on AZ, and primarily because of the deaths. Not what EU leaders say.

Says a lot that health authorities in countries where people don’t care what European leaders say, feel compelled to do damage control:

“Health Canada noted “none of the identified batches under investigation have been shipped to Canada.”

“To date, no adverse events related to the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, or the version manufactured by the Serum Institute of India, have been reported to Health Canada or the Public Health Agency of Canada,” they said.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7695938/astr ... s-vaccine/

Percentages may be low but absolute numbers resonate. If deaths increase, countries relying on AZ are going to witness a lot of vaccine hesitation.

How many blood clots among the unvaccinated?

The EU already has a hesitancy problem. I have zoom calls and "quasi-ineffective" was the phrase heard around the world. I am very curious to compare this chart in a week, I filter to United Kingdom, European Union, United States, and Israel:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... per-capita

The nice daily linear increase inverted this week.
My back of the envelope math has about a third fewer doses per day during the AZ pause.

There will be more deaths. Covid-19 creates clots, some fraction of the vaccinated would have clots due to Covid-19. So if it is a few deaths matter... that will happen and vaccination will stop again.

Excess deaths are down, overall vaccines, including AZ, are doing great.

The new wave is already showing its ugly head. I hope the unused vaccine is quickly put into arms to slow it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

Lightsaber
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2410
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 19, 2021 2:34 am

lightsaber wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Unfortunately, I think the attack on AZ was a political deflection. I personally believe to distract from the EU vaccine procurement strategy. With a new wave hitting, buckle up, politics will, in my opinion, become more rancheros.

What will be even worse is the pause just instilled doubt, in my opinion. Approved again:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.nytimes. ... e.amp.html

I will be looking to see how EU vaccination rates change because of this kerfuffle.

Lightsaber


I don’t think Macron’s comments matter nearly as much as the recent reports of AZ-linked deaths. Any new vaccine hesitation will be focused on AZ, and primarily because of the deaths. Not what EU leaders say.

Says a lot that health authorities in countries where people don’t care what European leaders say, feel compelled to do damage control:

“Health Canada noted “none of the identified batches under investigation have been shipped to Canada.”

“To date, no adverse events related to the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, or the version manufactured by the Serum Institute of India, have been reported to Health Canada or the Public Health Agency of Canada,” they said.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7695938/astr ... s-vaccine/

Percentages may be low but absolute numbers resonate. If deaths increase, countries relying on AZ are going to witness a lot of vaccine hesitation.

How many blood clots among the unvaccinated?

The EU already has a hesitancy problem. I have zoom calls and "quasi-ineffective" was the phrase heard around the world. I am very curious to compare this chart in a week, I filter to United Kingdom, European Union, United States, and Israel:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... per-capita

The nice daily linear increase inverted this week.
My back of the envelope math has about a third fewer doses per day during the AZ pause.

There will be more deaths. Covid-19 creates clots, some fraction of the vaccinated would have clots due to Covid-19. So if it is a few deaths matter... that will happen and vaccination will stop again.

Excess deaths are down, overall vaccines, including AZ, are doing great.

The new wave is already showing its ugly head. I hope the unused vaccine is quickly put into arms to slow it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

Lightsaber


I’m not saying AZ is to blame for the clots. I have elderly family members who got their first shot last week.

But...

There’s no point pretending that every time that ticker clicks - even one more death nominally connected to AZ - hundreds, if not thousands, will pass on it for an alternative.

If AZ was the only horse in town, this might be negligible. But with Moderna, Pfizer etc, any slowdown due to AZ-hesitancy (and that is all that it is), will reverse with the arrival of other vaccines.

The UK is already witnessing cancellation rates - up to 10% over the past week. I somehow doubt it’s down to what Macron said last month.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... lood-clot/

This isn’t a criticism of AZ. Unfortunately humans are hard wired to think there’s no smoke without fire. In that sense, every single additional death will have an exponential effect.
 
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par13del
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:20 am

ElPistolero wrote:
Gotta marvel at some of the hypocrisy here. Every single democratic country is playing vaccine nationalism, whether they publicly admit it or not. It’s the reality of democracy.

I marvel at all the hidden Trump supporters who were major critics when he said he would not support COVAX other than funds, he would vaccinate the USA first and now, all his critics are doing what he said he would do, so were they really against him or were just playing politics.

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Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos