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JJJ
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:00 pm

AirbusCheerlead wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The daily rate of vaccination is low in the EU and dropping:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... pean+Union

I think what you see in the data is the long easter weekend (many people have 4 days off), so like on normal weekends less people get vaccinated and you also have a stonger lag in reporting numbers.


There were plans to vaccinate during the long Easter weekend.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/corona ... bers-rise/

It just happens that the promised vaccines (https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2021/04/ ... by-easter/) didn't arrive in time.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:58 pm

An interesting link on EU vaccine history, quantity ordered and timeline of orders:

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-COR ... ypmrelyvr/

In particular, I find the surveys on vaccine hesitancy interesting. Now, I do not take them 100% seriously as people often say what is expected, but do something else.

I had a report just saying he would get a vaccine appointment; I finally had a conversation starting with "A vaccine decision is very personal, if you don't want me asking, I won't; may I help you setup an appointment." He stated he had questions. I then proceeded to answer where we ended up with him debating between two vaccines (J&J, "one and done" or a mRNA, that might meet his needs). He won't get vaccinated unless he knows what is going into his body and it is his choice. Tonight he will talk with his wife and tomorrow we'll setup an appointment.

So there are ways to talk.

Part of what convinced him is my unfortunately growing "long hauler" symptoms; Tennitus is annoying, but a common Covid19 long term side effect. The rest everyone laughs as an easy diet...

So the EU needs vaccine, but they also need the conversation to create demand. That is part of what the EU should do.

The link had trends I found interesting.

JJJ wrote:
AirbusCheerlead wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The daily rate of vaccination is low in the EU and dropping:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... pean+Union

I think what you see in the data is the long easter weekend (many people have 4 days off), so like on normal weekends less people get vaccinated and you also have a stonger lag in reporting numbers.


There were plans to vaccinate during the long Easter weekend.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/corona ... bers-rise/

It just happens that the promised vaccines (https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2021/04/ ... by-easter/) didn't arrive in time.

Obviously supply is needed. Of the AstraZenica delivered, how much has been injected? Of course, any delivered last week shouldn't be counted, in my opinion.

It will be interesting to see how the next quarter goes. I'm a bit cynical on future promises. e.g., other posters noted a majority of EU vaccinated by end 2Q2021. However, my link shows 5% were vacinated in a month. It is possible to do another 40% in 3 months, but that means doubling the rate, then adding the current rate every month.

Part of why I am so skeptical is the US keeps promising 2 weeks in the future is the big increase, but it is always a slower pace.
EU at 1.67% per week (I did 2/28 to 4/3 as a holiday does slow things down) (1st dose, 12.5 weeks to go or current pace 12.69%+ 12.5weeks*1.67%/week (best prior slope)=33.56%

The pace needed is 3% (average). So quite an acceleration ahead is needed.

USA at 3.66% per week.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... pean+Union

Obviously new factories will accelerate the pace (e.g., AZ in Netherlands, Pfizer in Germany, Moderna in Switzerland) as well as J&J (Germany, France and Italy). I'm just cynical on > 50 by end 2Q2021. Then again, I have been cynical on US progress. There has been much over-promised.

Lightsaber
 
ElPistolero
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:29 pm

Oxford / AZ have suspended trials on children citing the same reasons as many EU authorities: insufficient information. They’re waiting for the UK regulatory authority to complete its review.

“Confirming that the trial on children was being paused, Prof Pollard said: "Whilst there are no safety concerns in the paediatric clinical trial, we await additional information from the MHRA on its review of rare cases of thrombosis/thrombocytopaenia that have been reported in adults, before giving any further vaccinations in the trial."

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56656356

The UK regulator is going to provide an update soon. Will be interesting to see whether it aligns with or diverges from EU countries, Canada etc.
 
JJJ
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:26 am

lightsaber wrote:
.

JJJ wrote:
AirbusCheerlead wrote:
I think what you see in the data is the long easter weekend (many people have 4 days off), so like on normal weekends less people get vaccinated and you also have a stonger lag in reporting numbers.


There were plans to vaccinate during the long Easter weekend.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/corona ... bers-rise/

It just happens that the promised vaccines (https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2021/04/ ... by-easter/) didn't arrive in time.

Obviously supply is needed. Of the AstraZenica delivered, how much has been injected? Of course, any delivered last week shouldn't be counted, in my opinion.


The table is a few posts above, as per April 4th 90,2% for all mfg combined, 83% for AZ.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:28 am

marcelh wrote:
So the key word is expected, we can conclude those expectations weren't met (not only by AZ, but also in a much lesser extend by the other manufacturers and in line with the numbers uptread about Q1 deliveries in the Netherlands I provided earlier.


judging by the 1.6 Million doses AZ Germany got yesterday, they managed to get to that 75% reduced target only one week late....

best regards
Thomas
 
art
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:34 am

Out of curiosity, what has become of the AZ vaccine 'discovered' in Italy? I imagine that there is a time limit on storage so that it needs to be used within that time limit (or otherwise be wasted).
 
sabenapilot
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:10 pm

EMA is about to announce the A-Z vaccine should not be used on younger people because of an increased risk in bood clots.
Only point of discussion is whether the age limit will be set at 55 or 60 years....
No offical source yet, but in my country the ministry of health is already anticipating the advice by the EMA which is not yet communicated, according to this newspaper (in Dutch)
https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20210407_94212082
 
JJJ
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:23 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
EMA is about to announce the A-Z vaccine should not be used on younger people because of an increased risk in bood clots.
Only point of discussion is whether the age limit will be set at 55 or 60 years....
No offical source yet, but in my country the ministry of health is already anticipating the advice by the EMA which is not yet communicated, according to this newspaper (in Dutch)
https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20210407_94212082


EMA vaccine head Marco Cavaleri was on record yesterday on an interview in Italy.

Basically that there is a definite link but that benefits still outweigh risks and causality still needs to be addressed.

2nd hand report in English

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/e ... -1.4530231

Original interview in Italian (paywalled)
https://www.ilmessaggero.it/salute/focu ... 79110.html
 
sabenapilot
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:32 pm

JJJ wrote:
Basically that there is a definite link but that benefits still outweigh risks and causality still needs to be addressed.


I agree, yet the thing is the risk benefit balance is different according to age: in my country for instance, only 8 people under the age of 24 died of Covid-19, with -if I am not mistaken- 16 further deads under the age of 45 or so...

That means the risk of a blood clot from vaccination with AZ may actually be higher than the risk of actually dying from Covid-19 when you are young and healthy, hence the logical decision to reserve this vaccine for elderly people only, who have a genuine benefit from it still, and use the safer Pfizer vaccine for younger people.
Estimations are that such a decision would lead to a 2 week delay in vaccination for younger people, which is not too dramatic at all, given the above figures on mortality in this group vs the safety benefit it would bring.
 
marcelh
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:58 pm

art wrote:
Out of curiosity, what has become of the AZ vaccine 'discovered' in Italy? I imagine that there is a time limit on storage so that it needs to be used within that time limit (or otherwise be wasted).

IIRC Vaxzevria has a expiration date of 6 months after packaging
 
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Aesma
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:14 pm

lightsaber : a 84yo in France can get any vaccine any time. By that I mean if there is one dose it's for her. However she might be waiting for her personal doctor to get some doses (AZ), and didn't try to get vaccinated until now (or there is nobody around her who could have helped her).

sbworcs wrote:
Given the new found worries about health in certain countries I presume they will now ban smoking, drinking, eating fatty foods etc which all have a much higher, and guaranteed, change of killing / causing health problems both short and long-term


I will ask my doctor Friday but I don't think AZ is banned for anybody, just not recommended. If you want to have it (and are in a category that can get vaccinated) then you can have it.

The other day BFMTV sent one of their journalists (maybe an intern) in the evening to see if a vaccine centre had leftover doses, there was a small queue, the girl (21 years old) was vaccinated with AZ.

Now with how things are going AZ might be out of the question for me so it will be Moderna or Pfitzer.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:21 pm

If I'm going to be a cynic on vaccine production, I need to point out when I find opposing evidence. German made Pfizer vaccine is now heading to France for fill and finish. This means a substantial production increase, in my opinion:
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04- ... h-soil.amp

The article also notes
Another company will begin filing Moderna vaccines in central France in a few days, with the Johnson & Johnson and CureVac vaccines to follow soon after.

I cannot be cynical on "in a few days" for Moderna either. :hyper: That, to me, implies the Swiss factory is ready.

Now having CureVac to follow soon, when it hasn't finished trials has me wonder. Initially, I thought this meant IDT or Sanofi were about ready with J&J, but with CureVac lumped in... I become a bit more cynical.

But overall good news.


Aesma wrote:
lightsaber : a 84yo in France can get any vaccine any time. By that I mean if there is one dose it's for her. However she might be waiting for her personal doctor to get some doses (AZ), and didn't try to get vaccinated until now (or there is nobody around her who could have helped her).

sbworcs wrote:
Given the new found worries about health in certain countries I presume they will now ban smoking, drinking, eating fatty foods etc which all have a much higher, and guaranteed, change of killing / causing health problems both short and long-term


I will ask my doctor Friday but I don't think AZ is banned for anybody, just not recommended. If you want to have it (and are in a category that can get vaccinated) then you can have it.

The other day BFMTV sent one of their journalists (maybe an intern) in the evening to see if a vaccine centre had leftover doses, there was a small queue, the girl (21 years old) was vaccinated with AZ.

Now with how things are going AZ might be out of the question for me so it will be Moderna or Pfitzer.

I can only go by what my neighbor has expressed in frustration trying to help his 84 year old mom. She has had two appointments cancelled on her. His brother, in Paris, is also trying to help. If the process is anything like here in California, any hitch is tough to recover from unless you know the process and are technically savvy.

Personally, the government websites seem to, everywhere, have no recovery if an appointment is missed or postponed for whatever reason. For example, here in California I had 7 neighbors and my mom have appointments cancelled without explanation or accomodation; they had to restart a frustrating process. Most had to have their children do it for them. So I can believe that she couldn't be vaccinated.

I couldn't find French statistics, but this article (which is written... too anti eu, but I couldn't find the data in a well written article, sorry) states only 57% of the over 80 in Europe were vaccinated last month. That implies a problem in the EU, so plausible people are being missed.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/oh ... NewsSearch

I personally would vaccinate my daughter's today with AZ, if it was available. Oh, they would get aspirin and excercise before hand and afterwards. All vaccines take time to work and AZ has proven very effective.

I now believe faults will be found in one vaccine after the other until we have too many vaccine hesitant.

This long, well written, article has examples of new varriants propogating through previously exposed groups:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/05/in ... -immunity/


I speculate there are two reasons:
1. Natural immunity is too unfocused to stop E484K/E484Q variants.
2. Natural immunity fades. Note: this is based on my doctor telling me to get vaccinated before 12 weeks as he was seeing patients re-infected after that time.

So I hope that vaccine production does happen.

Lightsaber
 
marcelh
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:47 pm

lightsaber wrote:
An interesting link on EU vaccine history, quantity ordered and timeline of orders:

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-COR ... ypmrelyvr/



A very superficial article, just summing up dates, numbers and playing with percentages. For example the question WHY Bulgaria is behind isn't answered, but should give some additional and meaningful information. (Answer: Bulgaria has bought a lot of AstraZenica vaccine which hasn't been delivered yet....)
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:44 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I couldn't find French statistics, but this article (which is written... too anti eu, but I couldn't find the data in a well written article, sorry) states only 57% of the over 80 in Europe were vaccinated last month. That implies a problem in the EU, so plausible people are being missed.


There is the french Covid Tracker:
https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/
The link goes to the vaccination page, but you'll find other infos too (seams to be only in french).

Over 75 (not over 80) is a little better (as of 05.04.21) 65% had one jab and 32% are fully vaccinated. For those between 65 and 74 the numbers are 31% and 4.5% respectively.

With the folks over 65 being at highest risk from Covid, I assume vaccine hesitation should be pretty low, even in France. With vaccine deliveries picking up, the over 65 should all have their first jab in a few weeks.

There is also the EU covid tracker (I think you already have the link). But as far as I can tell, the numbers there are not always "up to date" because not all member states report with the same speed (for example one country has numbers up to last week, while another only for 2 weeks ago)...
https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/exten ... uptake-tab

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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Aesma
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:00 pm

The first to be vaccinated in France were people in EHPAD (care homes) and there was a point made in asking consent to them or their family members. Quite a bad idea...

It should have gone something like "you want to see you family again, don't you ?", roll up that sleeve then !

Back then people were suspicious of mRNA vaccines...

Now that the UK is "suspending" AZ for the under 30 (quite a random age) we'll see if UK people are still in love with it.
 
JJJ
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:12 am

marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
An interesting link on EU vaccine history, quantity ordered and timeline of orders:

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-COR ... ypmrelyvr/



A very superficial article, just summing up dates, numbers and playing with percentages. For example the question WHY Bulgaria is behind isn't answered, but should give some additional and meaningful information. (Answer: Bulgaria has bought a lot of AstraZenica vaccine which hasn't been delivered yet....)


Exactly.

Bulgaria is one of the countries (mostly in the East) that balked at the price of mRNA vaccines and prefered to focus more traditional options.

They've been pretty much shafted by AZ inability to deliver on time (and absolute lack of available alternatives so far).
 
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par13del
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:13 am

JJJ wrote:
Exactly.

Bulgaria is one of the countries (mostly in the East) that balked at the price of mRNA vaccines and prefered to focus more traditional options.

They've been pretty much shafted by AZ inability to deliver on time (and absolute lack of available alternatives so far).

If there is an absolute lack of available alternatives, does that explain them going AZ, did they really have a choice?
 
JJJ
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:31 am

par13del wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Exactly.

Bulgaria is one of the countries (mostly in the East) that balked at the price of mRNA vaccines and prefered to focus more traditional options.

They've been pretty much shafted by AZ inability to deliver on time (and absolute lack of available alternatives so far).

If there is an absolute lack of available alternatives, does that explain them going AZ, did they really have a choice?


Look at Hungary, they got Chinese and Russian vaccines and are way ahead of EU average in vaccines per capita.

Even the German Land of Bavaria has signed a preliminary deal to buy Sputnik.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business ... u-approval

Though that's probably related to them being home to an R-Farm factory, one of the Russian manufacturers making Sputnik (and who themselves are the contracted maker of AZ vaccine in Russia). And of course, they have to wait for EMA or German approval.

Whether throwing your lot with the Russians and Chinese is wise or not is another thing entirely, but it's definitely an available option.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:16 pm

JJJ wrote:
marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
An interesting link on EU vaccine history, quantity ordered and timeline of orders:

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-COR ... ypmrelyvr/



A very superficial article, just summing up dates, numbers and playing with percentages. For example the question WHY Bulgaria is behind isn't answered, but should give some additional and meaningful information. (Answer: Bulgaria has bought a lot of AstraZenica vaccine which hasn't been delivered yet....)


They've been pretty much shafted by AZ inability to deliver on time.


...and this is what happens where there finally is vaccine on hand...

Image

Source: https://impfdashboard.de/

best regards
Thomas
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:37 pm

Pasteur institute is arguing that 90% of adults need vaccination. Now perhaps I missed something, but I believe 70% of the population remains sufficient. I wonder if this is because there is not yet a vaccine fir children (vaccinating 90% of adults and 16+ children is > 70%). With Pfizer doing spectacularly well (100%) in age 12-15, one would expect younger children (down to some age, say 6, but I'm guessing) to do equivalently well.

https://amp.france24.com/en/europe/2021 ... ormal-life

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.c ... 3d76779737

So there must be a majority (at least based off Israel and UK trends). We want some over-vaccination everywhere as it takes time for vaccines to be effective; it would be bad to find out one is undervaccinated in some future wave.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

This is one time I argue a lesser rate of vaccination (less than 90%) is probably good enough for the EU.

Lightsaber
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:44 pm

JJJ wrote:
And of course, they have to wait for EMA or German approval.

Whether throwing your lot with the Russians and Chinese is wise or not is another thing entirely, but it's definitely an available option.


If EMA is meant to be independent, why is there need for Macron and Merkel to conspire with Putin behind its back.
Look at Slovakia and their saga with Sputnik, where authorities discovered major inconsistencies between various batches.

The backer of Russia's Sputnik V vaccine has demanded that Slovakia return thousands of doses after the country's drug regulator said the doses received differed from those being reviewed by the European Union's drug overseer.

The back-and-forth between Bratislava and Moscow on April 8 added further confusion to the ongoing effort to get the Russian vaccine distributed and into people's arms across Europe.


https://www.rferl.org/a/slovakia-sputni ... 93492.html
 
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Aesma
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:45 pm

My first issue with the Sputnik vaccine is : why are Russians not vaccinated ?

As for the Chinese vaccine it seems to be crap.
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:02 pm

Aesma wrote:
My first issue with the Sputnik vaccine is : why are Russians not vaccinated ?

As for the Chinese vaccine it seems to be crap.


Blind suggestion :
Because they may have a working solution but no facility/ressources to industrialize it big scale ?
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:55 am

Aesma wrote:
As for the Chinese vaccine it seems to be crap.


Seems to work fine in preventing deaths ...

Grizzly410 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
My first issue with the Sputnik vaccine is : why are Russians not vaccinated ?

As for the Chinese vaccine it seems to be crap.


Blind suggestion :
Because they may have a working solution but no facility/ressources to industrialize it big scale ?


True, but they also export it for soft power reasons ... so they could vaccinate more people.

best regards
Thomas
 
JJJ
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:02 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
JJJ wrote:
And of course, they have to wait for EMA or German approval.

Whether throwing your lot with the Russians and Chinese is wise or not is another thing entirely, but it's definitely an available option.


If EMA is meant to be independent, why is there need for Macron and Merkel to conspire with Putin behind its back.
Look at Slovakia and their saga with Sputnik, where authorities discovered major inconsistencies between various batches.


Why use conspire when it's right there in the press release that whatever comes from the possible collaboration is contingent with the vaccine EMA approval?

As we've seen with the AZ saga purchasing, approval and actual rollout are entirely different phases of the process, carried out by different people at times concurrently.

If I have choice I'd get any vaccine other than Sputnik, I'm pretty sure corners have been cut at some point in all major vaccines, but for Sputnik I'd believe anything (and the Slovakian experience proves it).
 
JJJ
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:02 am

And re: Sputnik, this just in.

Four deaths after taking Russian Sputnik V vaccine
https://euobserver.com/world/151483

Four people recently died in Russia shortly after taking the Sputnik V anti-corona jab in previously unreported cases, which are being taken "seriously" by the EU regulator, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in Amsterdam.


This lack of transparency will not win Sputnik many friends in the EMA.
 
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Aesma
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:05 am

I'm back from the doctor, I'm getting 5G installed tomorrow. The Moderna version.
 
marcelh
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:24 pm

marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
As much as AZ is beat up on supply (and they should be), they did deliver 30 million of the 130 million doses the EU received 1Q2021.


Do you have a source?

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#distribution-tab

According to the official site, the actual number up and until April 5th 2021 is: 94,114,886 doses distributed to the EU/EAA countries.
We are already almost a week into Q2 and according to this source AZ has delivered 22,373,112 doses, so nowhere near your 130 million and 30 million..

And an update for today, April 9th:
Totaal delivered: 107,550,862
Total administered: 85,176,967

Breakdown of deliveries:
AstraZenica: 27,971,283
Moderna: 10,785,834
Pfizer: 65,536,860
Other/unknown: 3,256,885

The target of 107 million doses by the end of Q1 is reached just over a week late;
AZ is still behind the their own target of 30 million by the end of Q1...

Source: ECDC vaccine tracker
 
Olddog
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:43 pm

Yes, the only problem , albeit a big one. French minister said they have just 2 days stock on average daily jabs. As it is not a jit industry it complicates things.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:16 pm

marcelh wrote:
And an update for today, April 9th:
Totaal delivered: 107,550,862
Total administered: 85,176,967

Breakdown of deliveries:
AstraZenica: 27,971,283
Moderna: 10,785,834
Pfizer: 65,536,860
Other/unknown: 3,256,885

The target of 107 million doses by the end of Q1 is reached just over a week late;
AZ is still behind the their own target of 30 million by the end of Q1...

Source: ECDC vaccine tracker


The ECDC vaccine tracker is certainly a fountain of information. But I would take the EU's official announcement over it: 108.3 million doses delivered in the EU (updated 08.04.2021)
https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-tra ... ropeans_en

Also notice they say in the EU and not to the EU.
For exemple the Moderna vaccine is produced by Lonza in Visp, Switzerland. From there the ingredients are shipped to Laboratorios Farmaceuticos ROVI, near Madrid for "fill and finish". After being sent to Kuehne + Nagel's Belgium hub, the vaccine is distributed to the different EU member states and other countries around the world. This could mean the EU considers those vaccine delivered when they leave Madrid or arrive in Belgium...

Also while vaccination is reported daily by most countries, the arrival of new vaccine doses often get reported with a delay of a few day (or more). For example for Germany the ECDC vaccine tracker gives 12.35 Mio jabs of Pfizer/BioNTech delivered. But that corresponds to the number Germany got on 30.03.21. If they didn't got more since then, yesterday they would have vaccinated over 200'000 person with jabs they didn't have.

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas.

My numbers for Germany come from
https://impfdashboard.de/ and
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/N ... n-Tab.html
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:56 pm

JJJ wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
JJJ wrote:
And of course, they have to wait for EMA or German approval.

Whether throwing your lot with the Russians and Chinese is wise or not is another thing entirely, but it's definitely an available option.


If EMA is meant to be independent, why is there need for Macron and Merkel to conspire with Putin behind its back.
Look at Slovakia and their saga with Sputnik, where authorities discovered major inconsistencies between various batches.


Why use conspire when it's right there in the press release that whatever comes from the possible collaboration is contingent with the vaccine EMA approval?



As I wrote earlier: Will EMA remain independent, free of political influence to truly impartially assess Sputnik? Had there been no track record of Merkel and Macron investing a lot of political energy against a certain manufacturer (which has Brexit butthurtness written all over it), there is no gurantee they will not do the same, mirror-opposite thing for another one, this time from a country they have been notoriously servile to.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:31 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
JJJ wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:

If EMA is meant to be independent, why is there need for Macron and Merkel to conspire with Putin behind its back.
Look at Slovakia and their saga with Sputnik, where authorities discovered major inconsistencies between various batches.


Why use conspire when it's right there in the press release that whatever comes from the possible collaboration is contingent with the vaccine EMA approval?



As I wrote earlier: Will EMA remain independent, free of political influence to truly impartially assess Sputnik? Had there been no track record of Merkel and Macron investing a lot of political energy against a certain manufacturer (which has Brexit butthurtness written all over it), there is no gurantee they will not do the same, mirror-opposite thing for another one, this time from a country they have been notoriously servile to.


Oh, you mean like all the times the EMA said AZ is safe and the benefits are beyond the risks, even with few EU countries own agencies, the USA or the UK itself not agreeing?

Best regards
Thomas
 
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Aesma
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:57 am

lightsaber I have asked on a French forum and got a link to an official French healthcare system page (la "sécu" ), saying that since March 31 the sécu is calling all unvaccinated 75+ to give them vaccination appointments or register their refusal. So for the 84yo you mentioned she should have had a call or will get one shortly.
 
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:24 pm

Aesma wrote:
lightsaber I have asked on a French forum and got a link to an official French healthcare system page (la "sécu" ), saying that since March 31 the sécu is calling all unvaccinated 75+ to give them vaccination appointments or register their refusal. So for the 84yo you mentioned she should have had a call or will get one shortly.

Excellent! I will follow up with my neighbor. I was not social this weekend at all (tinnitus from Covid19 was very fatiguing for some reason, much more than before).

Lightsaber
 
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:58 pm

J&J beginning deliveries to EU (a few weeks late). It looks like 50 of 55 million to be delivered by June (a small delay to plan):

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BZ14Q
"Most recently, it was unclear whether that promise would be kept. However, 50 million doses are certain" for the second quarter, Liese said, noting he received this information from the company and from the European Commission, which coordinates talks with vaccine makers.

This will help slow the virus.

Lightsaber
 
marcelh
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
J&J beginning deliveries to EU (a few weeks late). It looks like 50 of 55 million to be delivered by June (a small delay to plan):

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BZ14Q
"Most recently, it was unclear whether that promise would be kept. However, 50 million doses are certain" for the second quarter, Liese said, noting he received this information from the company and from the European Commission, which coordinates talks with vaccine makers.

This will help slow the virus.

Lightsaber

Too late. Those non delivered AZ vaccines would have made a difference....
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:01 pm

J&J has put on hold their EU vaccination campaign:

https://amp.theguardian.com/society/202 ... lay-europe


The European commission is seeking “urgent clarification” from Johnson & Johnson after the company’s “completely unexpected” announcement that it has decided to delay the deployment of its coronavirus vaccine across Europe following concerns in the US about a small number of blood clots.


In the same link, they are now confident of delivering 55 million doses by June.

Personally, I think the liability is too high, despite about a one in million risk (6 in 7 million):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-u ... NewsSearch


marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
J&J beginning deliveries to EU (a few weeks late). It looks like 50 of 55 million to be delivered by June (a small delay to plan):

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BZ14Q
"Most recently, it was unclear whether that promise would be kept. However, 50 million doses are certain" for the second quarter, Liese said, noting he received this information from the company and from the European Commission, which coordinates talks with vaccine makers.

This will help slow the virus.

Lightsaber

Too late. Those non delivered AZ vaccines would have made a difference....

Timely vaccination is key. One must start getting vaccinated six weeks before needing it... There will not be enough vaccine in 2021. So governments will have to determine risk.

More latent damage found from getting Covid19. I am a bit concerned that *everyone* so far investigated (only 30) had blood vessel damage.

So the choice is a risk of clots, highest in the overweight and those on certain meds (cancer, pill) which can be mititgated (excercise, limiting vaccine to reduced risk individuals).

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 041321.php

It is for the EU to strategize who gets AZ and J&J and most importantly, the messaging. For example, while I do not believe this is what so ever true, Trump is alluding that the J&J pause is (in my words) smoke filled back room politics. This could actually boost demand for J&J among his supporters which would reduce vaccine hesitancy (I am known for my reverse psychology parenting style which befuddles many who see me "loose" arguments with my children yet go on the path of my choice...). It is also the best way to deal with an ex-spouse.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.newsweek ... %3famp%3d1


We will get through this. If "the Man" denying a vaccine creates an impression of a shortage... That is good PR. I will be curious how the EU does this.

Lightsaber
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:11 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Personally, I think the liability is too high, despite about a one in million risk (6 in 7 million):


No penalty damages here, liability risk is low.
 
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:52 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Personally, I think the liability is too high, despite about a one in million risk (6 in 7 million):


No penalty damages here, liability risk is low.

In the US and EU? Can you please post a link?

Last I read, the EU only indemnified above an unspecified limit:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/astraze ... -deal.html

Neither AZ nor J&J want the continued bad publicity the EU has thrown at them. It is time to sit down at the table and pause vaccinations until risks and public attacks moderate. If I were on either board of directors, I would insist the EU and USA (and anyone else they sell to) agrees to the risk matrix and liability share going forward.

At this time, my estimation of the liability puts AstraZenica and J&J into a forward loss situation. Now, this is only my opinion, but both companies should sit down and negotiate. This is such a big decision, the board of directors must vote on this.

Both sides have their needs to get out of this debacle:
1. EU must indemnify for going forward vaccinated and for AZ, this is the time for a reset in the rhetoric.
2. Both companies must create a united public relations campaign on their respective vaccines where they promise acheiveable goals instead of the current finger pointing.
3. The EU (and every governing medical authority) must be the ones to set the guidelines and stop shrinking the guidelines. Pick who may get these two vaccines and then move forward.


I'm too technical to be a great negotiator. I have had the pleasure of sitting in on multi& billion dollar deals like this one. When the rancor gets this high, the best negotiators pick an excuse that lets both side negotiate without losing face.

So the health concerns and liability will be discussed. I am sure they will arrive at a solution. Everybody needs the vaccines too much.

The current anti-corpoeate environment has AZ having its reputation destroyed. If stopping in the EU on health concerns is required, so be it. I bet within 3 weeks we can come to some agreement.

The past is the past, constantly demanding a fix on what cannot be fixed is... insane. So time to create a win-win going forward. A united front.

The current churn must stop.

Lightsaber

PS,
We often do safety stand downs on aircraft. This is just a vaccine safety stand down. It always ends the acrimony. Sometimes it ends the contract. In a forward loss condition with safety concerns, you should always stand down.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:09 pm

lightsaber wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Personally, I think the liability is too high, despite about a one in million risk (6 in 7 million):


No penalty damages here, liability risk is low.

In the US and EU? Can you please post a link?
.


Ups, i ment punitive damages.

Best regards
Thomas
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:29 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

No penalty damages here, liability risk is low.

In the US and EU? Can you please post a link?
.


Ups, i ment punitive damages.

Best regards
Thomas

Even with that limit, I estimate J&J and AZ would be in a forward loss.

This will have too much public attention not to do a proper safety stand down. No one ever wants one, but with the adreno vaccines, it is time. The companies and regulator/buyer have a discussion pretending there is no schedule pressure.
1. Collect data
2. Evaluate risks and costs
3. Develop mitigations

The current environment is too much public negotiations in the press. If either party doesn't like the results, the contract always has cancelation terms in every regulated industry. I doubt that will happen, but the current churn must stop with one policy and one united front.

First step, collecting data needs at least two weeks.
The second step can be days or weeks. The regulator must agree and sign the mitigations (both who is allowed the vaccine and at what liability).

This trying to do mitigations before data is amateur hour. That stops and everyone collects all the available data and charts it nicely.

Only then can we place all the risks on a risk matrix (global standard for all safety engineers, this is not industry dependent):
https://youtu.be/YP5YyELwvx8


This will ne a multi-level matrix as risk is a function of age, gender, weight, physical activity, and medication.

Only once you have a risk matrix can the decision be made. Each party is always allowed to express their risks and willingness to take on risk.

I am happy this is finally happening. Looking back, past due on AZ.

The best part of a safety stand down is everyone stops looking at the past. This is finding a solution. If a solution cannot be readily found, I personally have participated in block the door events where no one gets to leave, other than for minimal sleep. Every decision maker must be present, including the politicians.

The great news is we will have a united front and a thought out plan. The bad news is it takes time and one possible outcome is "project cancelled." I have seen vendors cancel regulated projects, the customer, and the regulator.

Obviously the EU (and USA) must send representatives from the regulatory side and customer side.

I cannot predict how long this stand down should or will take. I can say, only with hindsight, this should have happened with AZ and is obviously needed with J&J.

Lightsaber
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:31 am

lightsaber wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
In the US and EU? Can you please post a link?
.


Ups, i ment punitive damages.

Best regards
Thomas

Even with that limit, I estimate J&J and AZ would be in a forward loss.

This will have too much public attention not to do a proper safety stand down. No one ever wants one, but with the adreno vaccines, it is time. The companies and regulator/buyer have a discussion pretending there is no schedule pressure.


oh, absolutely... "keep going, nothing to see" isn´t the right appraoch. But J&Js risk is in the low single digits of turnover, i´d be surprised if that isn´t already covered by their liability accrual position.

And is it just me or do you sound a lot more cautious with J&J that you did with AZ.....?

best regards
Thomas
 
marcelh
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:44 am

lightsaber wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Personally, I think the liability is too high, despite about a one in million risk (6 in 7 million):


No penalty damages here, liability risk is low.

In the US and EU? Can you please post a link?

Last I read, the EU only indemnified above an unspecified limit:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/astraze ... -deal.html

Neither AZ nor J&J want the continued bad publicity the EU has thrown at them.

Has the EU made bad publicity about J&J? And about AZ, you still complain about the EU for "bad publicity", but it's AZ who is to blame by overpromising and underdelivering.

1. EU must indemnify for going forward vaccinated and for AZ, this is the time for a reset in the rhetoric.


The EU (by the EMA) still approves the use of the AZ vaccine without limitations
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-ema-finds-possible-link-very-rare-cases-unusual-blood-clots-low-blood

It's the national health authority of the member states which are to blame for the restrictions

2. Both companies must create a united public relations campaign on their respective vaccines where they promise acheiveable goals instead of the current finger pointing.

For AZ is'ts way too late.
3. The EU (and every governing medical authority) must be the ones to set the guidelines and stop shrinking the guidelines. Pick who may get these two vaccines and then move forward.

The EU doesn't have the authority to do this; it's up to the member states.

The current anti-corpoeate environment has AZ having its reputation destroyed.

Wrong. AZ made a deal with the EU to deliver at least 90 million doses to the member states by the end of Q1. AZ failed miserably and destryed their reputation by themselves.
 
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seahawk
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:19 am

And the J&J story is not going to help the public perception of AZ. Especially when you look at the different reactions of both companies.
 
JJJ
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:32 am

seahawk wrote:
And the J&J story is not going to help the public perception of AZ. Especially when you look at the different reactions of both companies.


J&J has the invaluable benefit of hindsight.
 
tommy1808
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:56 pm

JJJ wrote:
seahawk wrote:
And the J&J story is not going to help the public perception of AZ. Especially when you look at the different reactions of both companies.


J&J has the invaluable benefit of hindsight.


and Biontech just said "ok then, we ship 50 Million Doses more in May and June"...

(german): https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschl ... 20153a7cde

best regards
Thomas
 
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lightsaber
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:18 pm

marcelh wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

No penalty damages here, liability risk is low.

In the US and EU? Can you please post a link?

Last I read, the EU only indemnified above an unspecified limit:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/astraze ... -deal.html

Neither AZ nor J&J want the continued bad publicity the EU has thrown at them.

Has the EU made bad publicity about J&J? And about AZ, you still complain about the EU for "bad publicity", but it's AZ who is to blame by overpromising and underdelivering.

1. EU must indemnify for going forward vaccinated and for AZ, this is the time for a reset in the rhetoric.


The EU (by the EMA) still approves the use of the AZ vaccine without limitations
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-ema-finds-possible-link-very-rare-cases-unusual-blood-clots-low-blood

It's the national health authority of the member states which are to blame for the restrictions

2. Both companies must create a united public relations campaign on their respective vaccines where they promise acheiveable goals instead of the current finger pointing.

For AZ is'ts way too late.
3. The EU (and every governing medical authority) must be the ones to set the guidelines and stop shrinking the guidelines. Pick who may get these two vaccines and then move forward.

The EU doesn't have the authority to do this; it's up to the member states.

The current anti-corpoeate environment has AZ having its reputation destroyed.

Wrong. AZ made a deal with the EU to deliver at least 90 million doses to the member states by the end of Q1. AZ failed miserably and destryed their reputation by themselves.

AZ made many mistakes. Time to plan ahead.

They were short doses, but much of the attack, in my opinion was political. e.g., "quasi-effective"

The world is short on vaccines in this 4th wave. A stand down is wise to reset expectations, set clear rules.

If the rules are set by the member states, get them to the table.

The added doses for 25 million with Pfizer is great, but cannot replace AZ and J&J.

If it is too late for AZ, then a regulated contract can be cancelled by either party. No board of directors should ever authorize doing business on a forward loss.

The point of a safety stand down is to stop the finger pointing on past action. There is no changing the past. So the question is, what is the right decision for the future.

I do risk analysis and the shade thrown on AZ and J&J is orders of magnitude off. Since both companies will try to make as much as possible, the goal should be to determine who gets the vaccine.

AZ being over 90 million doses short was a bad event. But nothing we say changes that.

The whole point of a strategy is to not overly rely on one vendor. For example, it is my opinion the USA heavily relied on J&J being the volume vendor. They are still struggling for volume. The UK relied too much on outside production; both are adapting (although the 1st dose UK rate will be poor until Novavax enters the market).

The whole point of a safety stand down is to stop expending so much effort on the past and focus on the future. If it is too late with AZ, fine. Those factories can be converted to J&J.

I care about the strategy on:
1. Vaccine volume
2. Vaccine hesitancy

The EU, USA, and UK are all at the easy part, vaccine volume. A stand down now is wise to start fixing the second part, vaccine hesitancy.

No one cares in the end who makes the decisions, but rather the results of those decisions.

My fervent hope is this stand down is used to fix the hesitancy to Adreno vaccines. That must be done by the standard risk reduction:
1. Take a pause to collect data
2. Determine the full risk matrix
3. Determine costs and mitigations to risks

There are multiple parties to these vaccines. Insisting on hammering on at fault doesn't solve anything. Oh, AZ will have penalties, but as at this time I see them at a forward loss, they must make a strategic decision.

Either J&J and AZ are given a chance to redeem themselves or not. The finger pointing must be demotivating the very staff needed to increase production. If their management doesn't act, it hurts us all.

The reality is, these two vaccines are expected to be very mass produced. I've seen estimates on AZ if 2 to 3 billion doses (I expect less, personally):
https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-scienc ... %20vaccine.

J&J, expectations are for over a billion doses:
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandem ... 0in%202019.

Roughly a third of the global population could be vacvinated by these two vaccines. I've posted before on production in
AZ: Mexico, Brazil, Australia, Italy, USA, India
J&J: USA, UK, Italy, soon Germany and France

SII in India is a huge vaccine producer, but in my opinion not ready for mRNA.

This will be interesting. This isn't just the EU, but vaccine hesitancy and availability. The later is for the vendors, with government help, to fix. The former is good public awareness (IMHO great only in the UK).

Lightsaber
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:35 pm

EU published and leaked production numbers for the factories in Europe up to 13.04.21: For EU countries 126 Mio jabs (100 Mio in arms) and 113.5 Mio jabs exported.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-tra ... ropeans_en
https://www.bloombergquint.com/amp/poli ... own-people

A few comments about the number:

I believe produced for the EU means "fill and finish" for exemple the Bloomberg piece shows exports to Switzerland at 3.1 Mio. But for Moderna the vaccine is produced by Lonza in Switzerland, the fill and finish happens in a EU plant before the jab returns to Switzerland.

I think EU exports numbers consider an export when they stamp it through, and not when the jabs are shipped or arrive at destination.

How much materials are imported, especially from the US, I have no idea and haven't found much information in the news.

In the 126 Mio jabs delivered, I think, the 2.2 Mio jabs of Sputnik V and Chinese vaccine delivered by Russia and China to Hungary are included.

Exports before 31.01.21 are not included in the numbers leaked to Bloomberg. And Covax numbers either but I don't know if there were many of those shipments.

But most interesting I thought, were the shipments to Japan:
  • up to 15 March: 4 mio
  • up to 06 April: 17 Mio (+13 Mio or 0.6 Mio/day)
  • up to 13 April: 39 Mio (+22 Mio or over 3 Mio/day)

But as of 15.04.21 Japan had given a jab to 1.5% of its population or less than 2 Mio vaccine doses.

With a population of about 125 Mio, and considering 12% are under 16, Japan has 110 Mio people to vaccinate. At 100% vaccine take up and assuming 2 jab, I get 220 Mio doses.
With the Olympic games starting in 98 days I get max 2.25 Mio jabs/day to fully vaccinate the people in Japan. Could we see a mass vaccination start in Japan just in a few days?

In this recent article I found this quote:
Taro Kono, the minister in charge of the rollout, has said 100 million doses should be stockpiled by June
https://theconversation.com/amp/japan-i ... ics-158700


Could the EU numbers suggest that there will be more vaccine available in Japan...

Well the next days and weeks will tell us...

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
TheSonntag
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:32 am

Meanwhile, German vaccination campaign is really gaining momentum after local doctors were included into the campaign. In this week alone, we had more than 3 million vaccinations in the first 5 days.

21million jabs were given so far. Biontech is seemingly very reliable with their deliveries.
 
proest
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Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:10 am

Vaccination across the European continent is finally picking up speed. I wouldn't be surprised if Europe only finishes 1 month later than the USA and UK in the end, which is quite a thing considering the situation we were in just a month ago.

Both worrying and convincing is the situation in Israel, the seems to have maxed out at ~120 doses/pp or 60-70% uptake (some second doses haven't been given yet), at the same time the reproduction rate is ~0.5 which means that the virus will die out soon enough.

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