You need to understand the difference between allocation and delivery. It's all set out in the contract you guys seem allergic to reading. Anyway (section 8) the way it goes is this. AZ says to the participating states "hey, we've got X new vaccines that will be ready on Thursday". So the EU has what's called the "binding allocation", which is used to divide up the batch. So, say, AZ notifies France that they have 50k doses available. France then has two choices, take them, and they will be delivered the France's national distribution centre, or leave them with AZ and pay for storage, insurance etc for an undisclosed period of time. After that, they can agree to store them for a further period, or AZ can sell them wherever that want, or even destroy them.
So the 75.8m actual supply and 80.2+m available supply may well be both true, and likely are given the current circumstances with demand for AZ so low. But I've been over this before, and if you want to ignore it to make a point, what can I do.
The EU needs more doses in arms. Anything. AZ has proven great. Needing 3 doses? Probably, but if I weren't vaccinated and they were in short supply and I could get a 3 jab AZ course, I would go for it.
Delta will come and it it literally six weeks too late to start vaccinating. It always is the same pattern. A small uptick, then exponential as Delta will find a home in undervaccinated communities. The Netherlands has started the uptick:https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~NLD~POL
Delta only seems to be deterred by the 2nd jab, but all the Western vaccines seem to be working well enough.
UK at 50% of population having a bad Delta outbreak despite being very well vaccinated. +17% (or 67% or two thirds with at least one jab)
Spain at 40%, moving up +16% one jab
Germany at 39% percent moving up +17% one jab. 56%, based on the UK experience, isn't good enough
Netherlands at 36% two jabs probably won't slow it enough. But with 24% one jab, is really going to move up (60% total some vaccine, should help slow spread, but not as well as UK).
France at 31% two jabs... 19% one jab. Should have a worse Delta experience than the UK. Rhoo Rhoo.
The EU needs jabs in arms. Personally, reserve Pfizer for 12+ to accelerate the quantity of people vaccinated to slow the spread would be a wise move.
Data on vaccinations (updated daily, why I put in the snapshot). https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... TA~ISR~NLD
Before someone says it, the USA is horribly under-vaccinated. My relative in Mesa county Colorado is going through hell. You might notice the hospital beds stay 100% full yet the quantity of beds keep declining. They have to now accommodate those nurses who want out of coronavirus duty or just don't want to do coronavirus. They're done. The wards are full of people who chose not to be vaccinated and you just cannot negotiate with the burned out. Burned out people will quit and switch careers when it doesn't make sense and that is where medical staff are (at least here in the USA). The EU will reach that. The pay in nursing isn't high enough for the stress and hours and the nurses know that. Or... they are just burned out and want out. They must grant them double vacations this summer to stem the exodus.https://health.mesacounty.us/covid19/datadashboard/
The selfish who aren't vaccinating, even with AZ... are in for a rude awakening. Medical staff are taking retirement or forcing decisions on vacations. Since there is AZ available in the EU, their staff will develop the same attitude (which is really, in my opinion, based on burnout).
Unless you have managed a burned out team (I"m really good at it, they always throw me into burned out teams to save projects because fewer quit under me but management gets pissed by my stand downs... which you cannot do in medicine, but they need it). Unless you, like myself, have training in fatigue and management of fatigue, it is a problem. Management always has the attitude "but we told you you're needed..." Good luck negotiating with the burned out. There are things you have to do to get them to listen to a word and I don't think the medical management has the training to deal with what is coming everywhere in 2021/2022. Not just the EU, but turning the nose up to AZ is creating a future problem they don't know they will have. This is a problem that has to be solved 3 months before the metrics show an issue and today's management isn't up to thinking that far ahead. Oh well...
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.