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LittleFokker
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COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:24 am

Fun thought experiment...20 years from now, when younger people ask you about your experience living through this pandemic, what element of behavior modification or societal adjustment do you think will be the most bizarre and difficult to believe?

For me, I think the most bizarre is cardboard cutout fans at sporting events. Still not sure how I am going to explain that with any level of sanity.
"All human activities are doomed to failure." - Jean Paul Sartre
 
LabQuest
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:36 am

While I was on it I made more on unemployment than I did working.

Crazy.
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:04 am

That whole cities in some parts of the world were locked down and borders closed over one or two identified cases.
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caliboy93
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:22 am

How some people thought it was a joke
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 3:57 am

I will tell my students, and possibly my son if he chooses to study the Biological Sciences, of the incredible leaps and bounds that the field of virology made, of the revelations about the nature of coronaviruses in general and RNA viruses more broadly. I will tell them about the amazing advent of the world's first mRNA vaccines, which will probably be commonplace in 2040 and how quickly these powerful weapons were brought to bear.

This has been a terrible experience, but we have learned so much from it.
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ltbewr
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:12 am

That the infections disease and pandemic identification, monitoring and public health infrastructure was brought back and made stronger as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Pandemic will be as important of a historical event as the Great Depression and the WWII home front in the USA was.
That it caused major reforms in access to all to health care needs, caused significant financial and social reforms.
President Trump will be seen as the vile and incompetent, President, President Biden as a strong leader that got us thru the crises.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:09 am

How people still thought it was a hoax got directly affected by it through various means and contributed to the political schism in my country.
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VSMUT
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:42 am

They won't be asking what it was like, because the virus will still be around. If they are lucky enough to live in the west, they will get an annual coronavirus-shot to cover the latest mutations. Travel will recover, but probably with severe restrictions for the unvaccinated and requirements for PCR tests and quarantine. IMO, children in 20 years will probably be asking what a buffet restaurant was like, or what free unrestricted global travel was like.
 
ACDC8
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:06 am

Toilet paper
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bennett123
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:32 am

Perhaps someone can explain.

Why did everyone run out and buy up toilet paper.

You can't eat the stuff.
 
melpax
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:03 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
Toilet paper


And the panic buying in general. Supermarkets having to impose buying limits, and having to shorten opening hours so the stores could be restocked in peace, without the staff being trampled!

A planned 6 week lockdown in Melbourne becoming over 3 months, and curfews & movement restrictions being imposed. Nearly all shops having to close. Having to carry a permit to go to work (paperrrs pleasse!), and random police checkpoints. No visitors or socialising allowed, having 'impromptu catchups' when out shopping (for the allowed 1 hour a day, within 5kms!)
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:04 pm

For me the biggest disappointment was technology giants did nothing to the world fight COVID-19.

All the talk about artificial Intelligence, dinner cooking smartphones, self-driving cars, did nada, zippo.

All they do is to collect and sell data.

Even underwear manufacturers did their part.
All posts are just opinions.
 
VSMUT
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:33 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
For me the biggest disappointment was technology giants did nothing to the world fight COVID-19.

All the talk about artificial Intelligence


That's because it isn't artificial intelligence. They are just glorified statistical engines. They are worthless when faced with fresh information, since the database has nothing on it.
 
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Jetsgo
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:38 pm

COVID exposed an assload of mental illness in the US.
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NIKV69
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:57 pm

Jetsgo wrote:
COVID exposed an assload of mental illness in the US.


I guess being in NY when it broke out I am thankful my parents weren't in a rest home.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:29 pm

Too many things to mention, both good and bad:

1) Elected officials calling it a hoax
2) Elected officials proclaiming to follow science, but then not follow science at all
3) Elected officials abusing the situation for other means
4) How common sense was completely lost
5) How life changed for several years, but in reality didn't change that much
6) How many were forced to work from home and actually liked it after a while
7) How medical research made great progress and developed reasonable working vaccines in the shortest time ever
 
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Aesma
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:44 pm

Kent350787 wrote:
That whole cities in some parts of the world were locked down and borders closed over one or two identified cases.


Imagine if everyone had done that ! We would have forgotten about it by now.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Kent350787
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:22 pm

Aesma wrote:
Kent350787 wrote:
That whole cities in some parts of the world were locked down and borders closed over one or two identified cases.


Imagine if everyone had done that ! We would have forgotten about it by now.


No question that there have been ineffective responses in many, many places. But to lockdown a city of 2 million for 5 days due to a single case and basically "just in case" is insane.
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CaptainHaresh
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:25 pm

I think that my biggest lesson from all of this is that I'm ashamed to be a human being.
 
mjba257
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:26 pm

People overreacted to a virus with a 99.5% survival rate
 
meecrob
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:30 pm

People forgot that 99.5% survival rate means 37.5 million dead.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:10 pm

VSMUT wrote:
They won't be asking what it was like, because the virus will still be around. If they are lucky enough to live in the west, they will get an annual coronavirus-shot to cover the latest mutations. Travel will recover, but probably with severe restrictions for the unvaccinated and requirements for PCR tests and quarantine. IMO, children in 20 years will probably be asking what a buffet restaurant was like, or what free unrestricted global travel was like.


You’re severely overestimating things. A year from now there will be no restrictions at all. The purpose is just to get virus levels to those of the flu, once that happens nobody will care anymore
 
CaptainHaresh
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:02 am

LNCS0930 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
They won't be asking what it was like, because the virus will still be around. If they are lucky enough to live in the west, they will get an annual coronavirus-shot to cover the latest mutations. Travel will recover, but probably with severe restrictions for the unvaccinated and requirements for PCR tests and quarantine. IMO, children in 20 years will probably be asking what a buffet restaurant was like, or what free unrestricted global travel was like.


You’re severely overestimating things. A year from now there will be no restrictions at all. The purpose is just to get virus levels to those of the flu, once that happens nobody will care anymore


In my opinion, 20 years is on the pessimistic side, 1 year too optimistic.
We're only starting to dig the trenches, prepare for a very long battle.
 
luckyone
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:40 am

What I will remember aside from how dedicated the healthcare and biotech communities were is how quickly so many people lost their damn minds. Everything was knee jerk, viscerally emotional responses. COVID created an irrational environment where everything become exaggerated.
CaptainHaresh wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
They won't be asking what it was like, because the virus will still be around. If they are lucky enough to live in the west, they will get an annual coronavirus-shot to cover the latest mutations. Travel will recover, but probably with severe restrictions for the unvaccinated and requirements for PCR tests and quarantine. IMO, children in 20 years will probably be asking what a buffet restaurant was like, or what free unrestricted global travel was like.


You’re severely overestimating things. A year from now there will be no restrictions at all. The purpose is just to get virus levels to those of the flu, once that happens nobody will care anymore


In my opinion, 20 years is on the pessimistic side, 1 year too optimistic.
We're only starting to dig the trenches, prepare for a very long battle.

I’m inclined to agree with the one year predictions. The virus is going to be endemic—it’s not going away. We’re going to be seeing cases of COVID-19 moving forward. But there will be a level of community immunity and vaccination that will more or less result in a steady exposure in vulnerable populations. But the restrictions will wind down. If for no other reason even the most observant countries are going to push back.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:50 am

VSMUT wrote:
They won't be asking what it was like, because the virus will still be around. If they are lucky enough to live in the west, they will get an annual coronavirus-shot to cover the latest mutations. Travel will recover, but probably with severe restrictions for the unvaccinated and requirements for PCR tests and quarantine. IMO, children in 20 years will probably be asking what a buffet restaurant was like, or what free unrestricted global travel was like.


This isn't the case for the other four respiratory coronaviruses and there's no reason it should be for this one. Reinfections are usually milder than the initial infection and most initial infections in children are mild. Thus, once we have a reasonable percentage of the population already infected, the virus will become a "common cold coronavirus" and I'd give 10:1 odds that it will be seasonal. But because everyone will already have antibodies, it will very rarely cause severe illness.
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"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Kiwirob
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:15 am

In 20 years time won't mankind be fighting to survive the Zombie Apocalypse?
 
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OA412
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:26 pm

Please do not use this thread to spread COVID misinformation, falsehoods, and half-truths.
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ANITIX87
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:19 pm

mjba257 wrote:
People overreacted to a virus with a 99.5% survival rate

Testicular cancer has a 99% survival rate for localized Stage I. Was it an over-reaction when I got diagnosed in 2018 and made sure I did EVERYTHING I need to do to treat it and cure it? Is ongoing research on treatment and cures an over-reaction?
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TangoandCash
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Wed Feb 10, 2021 9:52 pm

Toilet paper shortage.

Now go get your yearly flu shot and your annual COVID booster shot. (Because this thing will still be with us in 20 years in some form or another)
 
luckyone
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Wed Feb 10, 2021 9:55 pm

mjba257 wrote:
People overreacted to a virus with a 99.5% survival rate

It's not just the death rate. It's resource utilization. Call your boss at the registration desk and ask them if a 5% hospitalization rate with prolonged course of admission is an overreaction.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:17 am

We went insane.
Toilet paper.
Politics (100% black or white), all finger pointing. This will be a series of despised politicians.
Inflation, all that printed money has a cost
The coming recession

DocLightning wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
They won't be asking what it was like, because the virus will still be around. If they are lucky enough to live in the west, they will get an annual coronavirus-shot to cover the latest mutations. Travel will recover, but probably with severe restrictions for the unvaccinated and requirements for PCR tests and quarantine. IMO, children in 20 years will probably be asking what a buffet restaurant was like, or what free unrestricted global travel was like.


This isn't the case for the other four respiratory coronaviruses and there's no reason it should be for this one. Reinfections are usually milder than the initial infection and most initial infections in children are mild. Thus, once we have a reasonable percentage of the population already infected, the virus will become a "common cold coronavirus" and I'd give 10:1 odds that it will be seasonal. But because everyone will already have antibodies, it will very rarely cause severe illness.

Between vaccinations and having had it, this will become just a reoccurring. We'll vaccinate, but it will be impossible to eliminate as too many are anti-vac and the US boarders are too porus.

Instead of A and B colds, it will be A, B, and C.

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Revelation
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:25 pm

VSMUT wrote:
They won't be asking what it was like, because the virus will still be around. If they are lucky enough to live in the west, they will get an annual coronavirus-shot to cover the latest mutations. Travel will recover, but probably with severe restrictions for the unvaccinated and requirements for PCR tests and quarantine. IMO, children in 20 years will probably be asking what a buffet restaurant was like, or what free unrestricted global travel was like.

Agree.

One thing we've learned that viruses can emerge from some very obscure locations and be spread far and wide before any of our institutions can react to them.

Add to that governments and individuals refusing to take common sense precautions once that happens and it's going to happen again and again.

dtw2hyd wrote:
For me the biggest disappointment was technology giants did nothing to the world fight COVID-19.

All the talk about artificial Intelligence, dinner cooking smartphones, self-driving cars, did nada, zippo.

All they do is to collect and sell data.

Even underwear manufacturers did their part.

Did someone take computers away from the scientists working on the anti-virus?

Take away their internet connections?

Take away collaboration tools like Zoom?

Take away cloud based tools like Google Docs?

Make them go back to sending letters to each other like they did in the Flu of 1918?

Dieuwer wrote:
Too many things to mention, both good and bad:

1) Elected officials calling it a hoax
2) Elected officials proclaiming to follow science, but then not follow science at all
3) Elected officials abusing the situation for other means
4) How common sense was completely lost
5) How life changed for several years, but in reality didn't change that much
6) How many were forced to work from home and actually liked it after a while
7) How medical research made great progress and developed reasonable working vaccines in the shortest time ever

I still don't understand why the governments didn't:
1) Figure out who makes medical grade masks or knows how to do so
2) Give them access to everything they need to make as many as they can (materials, labor) 24x7
3) Draft other related businesses to help those who are already in the mask making business
4) Issue medical grade masks to everyone free of charge
5) Make mask wearing mandatory in public spaces
6) Similar for having dispensers for hand sterilization

Instead we got:
1) Hope that China can make enough masks
2) Do next to nothing to help local mask makers
3) Ask amateurs to make masks from whatever cloth is available
4) Let individuals decide it's OK to reject laws that inconvenience them
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dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
Make them go back to sending letters to each other like they did in the Flu of 1918?


Glad you bought up 1918. 100 years later we did no better. That is the lesson to be learned 20 years or 100 years later.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Revelation
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:35 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Make them go back to sending letters to each other like they did in the Flu of 1918?

Glad you bought up 1918. 100 years later we did no better. That is the lesson to be learned 20 years or 100 years later.

So you and your loved ones will be refusing the vaccine since we can do no better than 1918 where they just counted deaths while they waited for herd immunity to take over?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Make them go back to sending letters to each other like they did in the Flu of 1918?

Glad you bought up 1918. 100 years later we did no better. That is the lesson to be learned 20 years or 100 years later.

So you and your loved ones will be refusing the vaccine since we can do no better than 1918 where they just counted deaths while they waited for herd immunity to take over?


My post was about technology and its help, there lack of during a pandemic. Constant surveillance, petaflops of processing power and zettabytes of storage, can't trace how the virus is spreading. Just to sell which shoes you might like.

And about medical experts
Earth's atmosphere stabilized - 2.5 Billion years ago
First Humans - 2.5 Million years ago
First virus - 12,000 years ago.
First influenza pandemic - 15th century
First mask - 6th century AD
First cloth mask - 12th century AD

Earth's atmosphere, human respiratory system and virus hasn't changed their behavior.

I am sure that is enough time for the "experts" to figure out protocols dealing with any virus, yet, CDC cannot officially say it is an airborne disease and recommend a high quality mask, even after every other western country did so.

And you are asking me about refusing a non-available vaccine. Someone has to offer first. As of Feb 12, 2021. 194,000 doses given by my county with a population 1.28 Million.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Revelation
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:17 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Glad you bought up 1918. 100 years later we did no better. That is the lesson to be learned 20 years or 100 years later.

So you and your loved ones will be refusing the vaccine since we can do no better than 1918 where they just counted deaths while they waited for herd immunity to take over?

My post was about technology and its help, there lack of during a pandemic.

Your post set the bar at "no better than 1918" yet you aren't willing to defend that now.

You complain about what CDC is or is not able to do, then you complain about what is happening in your own country -- what's the connection?

It's hard to figure out what points you are making seriously versus exaggerating for effect.

Point is anti-viruses did not exist in 1918 (first license one was 1940) and we now have several to chose from, all being delivered faster than ever regardless of your own local situation.

As mentioned, the only option they had in 1918 was to provide aspirin and bury bodies while they waited for herd immunity to come into play.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:05 pm

Revelation wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Revelation wrote:
So you and your loved ones will be refusing the vaccine since we can do no better than 1918 where they just counted deaths while they waited for herd immunity to take over?

My post was about technology and its help, there lack of during a pandemic.

Your post set the bar at "no better than 1918" yet you aren't willing to defend that now.

You complain about what CDC is or is not able to do, then you complain about what is happening in your own country -- what's the connection?

It's hard to figure out what points you are making seriously versus exaggerating for effect.

Point is anti-viruses did not exist in 1918 (first license one was 1940) and we now have several to chose from, all being delivered faster than ever regardless of your own local situation.

As mentioned, the only option they had in 1918 was to provide aspirin and bury bodies while they waited for herd immunity to come into play.


County (in Michigan) not country. I believe it comes under CDC guidelines.

When 4 (Four) Americans died, we had 4 years of congressional hearings. Ready to cross 500,000 deaths very soon.

Andrew Cuomo was singing "expert" tunes for almost a year, got tired and made one comment, he is anti-expert and need to be dealt with.

All he said is I did every thing experts told me to do, still the death rate is now higher than when we begin. Experts keep making U-Turns.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2021/ ... ad-vpx.cnn

Why do you think we are better.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:25 am

lightsaber wrote:
Instead of A and B colds, it will be A, B, and C.

Lightsaber


There are four endemic human "common cold" coronaviruses. Coronaviruses come in four genera (plural of "genus") called Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta. The Alphas and Betas tend to infect mammals and the Gammas and Deltas tend to infect birds.

Of the human coronaviruses, two are alphacoronaviruses, hCoV-229E (the first human coronavirus discovered by June Almeida in 1966) and hCoV-NL63 (interestingly, NL63 also enters cells by binding to the same surface motif on ACE2 as SARS-CoV-2, although its receptor binding domain is completely different).

The other two are betacoronaviruses, hCoV-HKU1 and hCoV-OC43. HKU1 caused a scare when it caused a severe pneumonia in a baby in Hong Kong and set off a global alarm about an impending coronavirus pandemic...and then it turned out that the virus was already all over the world. OC43 spilled over from cattle around 1890 and may have been the true cause of the "Russian Flu" that killed a million people worldwide. Interestingly, both OC43 and HKU1 have furin cleavage sites

SARS-CoV-2 is also a betacoronavirus, and once it is endemic, I would propose a new name of hCoV-WU19.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
Newark727
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:34 am

DocLightning wrote:
OC43 spilled over from cattle around 1890 and may have been the true cause of the "Russian Flu" that killed a million people worldwide. Interestingly, both OC43 and HKU1 have furin cleavage sites.


How do they establish that date? Is it more genetics, historiography, or both?
 
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DocLightning
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:58 am

Newark727 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
OC43 spilled over from cattle around 1890 and may have been the true cause of the "Russian Flu" that killed a million people worldwide. Interestingly, both OC43 and HKU1 have furin cleavage sites.


How do they establish that date? Is it more genetics, historiography, or both?


The reference is here.

The dating of the spillover is done mathematically by looking at accumulated mutations in the OC43 strain of coronavirus.

From the article:
The Article wrote:
In the second half of the nineteenth century, a highly infectious respiratory disease with a high mortality rate affected cattle herds around the world (11, 41). The same disease, or a similar disease, is now known as contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and is caused by Mycoplasma mycoides mycoides. In the nineteenth century, the clinical symptoms of CBPP would have been difficult to distinguish from those of BCoV pneumonia, and it can be hypothesized that the bovine respiratory disease in the second half of the nineteenth century might have been similar to the coronavirus-associated shipping fever disease (56). Most industrialized countries mounted massive culling operations in the period between 1870 and 1890 (11) and were able to eradicate the disease by the beginning of the twentieth century. During the slaughtering of CBPP-affected herds, there was ample opportunity for the culling personnel to come into contact with bovine respiratory secretions. These respiratory secretions could have contained BCoV, either as the causal agent or as a coinfecting agent.

Interestingly, around the period in which the BCoV interspecies transmission would probably have taken place, a human epidemic ascribed to influenza was spreading around the world. The 1889-1890 pandemic probably originated in Central Asia (3) and was characterized by malaise, fever, and pronounced central nervous system symptoms (53). A significant increase in case fatality with increasing age was observed. Absolute evidence that an influenza virus was the causative agent of this epidemic was never obtained, due to the lack of tissue samples from that period. However, postepidemic analysis in 1957 of the influenza antibody pattern in sera of people who were 50 to 100 years old indicated that H2N2 influenza antibodies might have originated from the 1889-1890 pandemic (45). However, it is tempting to speculate about an alternative hypothesis, that the 1889-1890 pandemic may have been the result of interspecies transmission of bovine coronaviruses to humans, resulting in the subsequent emergence of HCoV-OC43. The dating of the most recent common ancestor of BCoV and HCoV-OC43 to around 1890 is one argument. Another argument is the fact that central nervous system symptoms were more pronounced during the 1889-1890 epidemic than in other influenza outbreaks. It has been shown that HCoV-OC43 has neurotropism and can be neuroinvasive (4).


I will also point out that in 1889-1890, the idea of a "virus" had not yet been conceived. In 1892 Dmitry Ivanovski filtered a preparation of a tobacco plant affected by tobacco mosaic disease through a porcelain Chamberlain filter (which has a pore size of 0.2µm and thus would filter bacteria) and discovered that the causative agent passed through this filter. In 1898, Martinus Beijerinck, a Dutch scientist, hypothesized that this infectious agent was actually a fluid. It wasn't until 1928 that Thomas Milton Rivers correctly hypothesized that viruses were particles.

Of course before 1892 viral diseases were well-known. Measles, smallpox, polio, and influenza were all well-known diseases and it was also widely known that they were contagious. It wasn't until 1932 that influenza was definitively identified as a virus.

So it is certainly reasonable that the emergence of an entire new virus could be mistaken as an existing disease or as a bacterium.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
Newark727
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Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:28 am

That's really interesting. Thanks again for all the knowledge you've been sharing with this forum over the last few months.
 
WIederling
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:21 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
And about medical experts
Earth's atmosphere stabilized - 2.5 Billion years ago
First Humans - 2.5 Million years ago
First virus - 12,000 years ago.
virii are much older than that. ( obviously they must be younger than active cell based organisms.
but not by much :-)
First influenza pandemic - 15th century
First mask - 6th century AD
First cloth mask - 12th century AD
Murphy is an optimist
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:17 pm

WIederling wrote:
virii are much older than that. ( obviously they must be younger than active cell based organisms.
but not by much :-)


Agreed, point well taken.
All posts are just opinions.
 
stlgph
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:11 pm

meecrob wrote:
People forgot that 99.5% survival rate means 37.5 million dead.


And some people forgot to see it's actually around 2.5 million.



And meanwhile, our friend Tuberculosis is sitting there giving us a nod and a wink from the corner, sipping down a nice chianti.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
stlgph
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:20 pm

LittleFokker wrote:
Fun thought experiment...20 years from now, when younger people ask you about your experience living through this pandemic, what element of behavior modification or societal adjustment do you think will be the most bizarre and difficult to believe?

For me, I think the most bizarre is cardboard cutout fans at sporting events. Still not sure how I am going to explain that with any level of sanity.


The inconsistencies.

Dare I go out in Moorhead, MN, and do anything, but if I walk 3/4 of a mile into Fargo, ND, I can do go about my business.

I can eat at Panera Bread, as usual, but not past 8 p.m., because closing an hour early is going to save the world. Meanwhile, the Chili's next door is open until 10 p.m. because apparently COVID-19 doesn't like their chips and salsa, unlike everyone else.

I can't shop at my local store but there's no problem to go into Wal Mart.

I used to be able to go to the sex house and raw dog it with everyone who might have crabs, gonorrhea, syphilis, crabs, or HIV .... but now I can't go at all because of COVID.

If I heard about COVID-19 on the news, I should avoid going to the hospital and clinics for routine procedures, which for years, have been conveniently located next door to the Infectious Disease clinic.

If I even so much as emailed someone with COVID-19, I shouldn't go into Ikea, but if I haven't, then I'm allowed to come inside and rub my cooch all over everything in the damn store.

A few years ago I contracted Tuberculosis, which is the worst infectious disease with the highest death rate, and no one cared and still expected me to come to work with no excuses, but if someone 200 miles down the road tests positive for COVID, we're all supposed to stay and work from home no questions asked.


I'm just sayin.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
WIederling
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:20 pm

stlgph wrote:
meecrob wrote:
People forgot that 99.5% survival rate means 37.5 million dead.


And some people forgot to see it's actually around 2.5 million.



7.85 billion ( 7.85e9 ) people on earth.
99.5% survive. 0.5% dead from Covid19

7.85e9/100 * .5 = 39,250,000.0 or just short of 40million dead.
And meanwhile, our friend Tuberculosis is sitting there giving us a nod and a wink from the corner, sipping down a nice chianti.


TB is a lot less contagious than Covid19 and has a well established cure.
Murphy is an optimist
 
stlgph
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:30 pm

WIederling wrote:
stlgph wrote:
meecrob wrote:
People forgot that 99.5% survival rate means 37.5 million dead.


And some people forgot to see it's actually around 2.5 million.



7.85 billion ( 7.85e9 ) people on earth.
99.5% survive. 0.5% dead from Covid19

7.85e9/100 * .5 = 39,250,000.0 or just short of 40million dead.
And meanwhile, our friend Tuberculosis is sitting there giving us a nod and a wink from the corner, sipping down a nice chianti.


TB is a lot less contagious than Covid19 and has a well established cure.


because let's ignore that everyone on Earth has or will have COVID-19.

so, while we're at at it...

https://covid19.who.int/


And no, TB is not less contagious. I've had it. TB remains suspended in the air longer and can travel farther distances.


cut the B.S.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
WIederling
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Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:41 pm

stlgph wrote:
And no, TB is not less contagious.

I've had it. .

What does it tell us?
beyond some liking for special math.

TB today does by far not propagate like Covid19.
Murphy is an optimist
 
meecrob
Posts: 266
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Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:33 pm

stlgph wrote:
meecrob wrote:
People forgot that 99.5% survival rate means 37.5 million dead.


And some people forgot to see it's actually around 2.5 million.


There are currently ~2.41 million deaths due to Covid, yes. I was clearly NOT talking about only the deaths that have already occurred. Someone will make a comment like "not everyone will get infected!!!" No, not everyone will get infected, but I was replying to someone making a blanket statement that 99.5% survivability is nothing to worry about. I say it is because there is a balance of up to ~37.5 million people that could be affected. That's an entire Canada worth of people. Or more than double all WWII combat deaths from all countries.

Your comment prompted me to look up some numbers though and it turns out that worldwide there are ~109 million cases with ~2.41 million deaths for a survivability rate of 97.8%. If we continue as we currently are, then the balance of possible deaths is actually ~165 million people.

In closing, I'd like to say just how amusing it is to get a reply in the thread titled "COVID-19 20 Years From Now" about how the deaths on February 16th, 2021 are 2.41 million. We're talking 2041. Its in the title.
 
airmann91
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:03 pm

Re: COVID-19 20 years from now

Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:23 pm

to come directly to the question asked, in any case the fact that people fought for toilet paper. I can't (and don't want to) believe that myself to this day ... :roll:

and that students who have lectures online wish themselves back to university life (including lectures) even though they otherwise never went to lectures :lol:

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