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Dieuwer
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German government considered worst-case scenario as basis for planning

Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:05 pm

"'German scientists had to justify lockdown and increase anxiety'

BERLIN - There has been a lot of uproar in Germany over the German government's pressure on scientists to justify the harsh lockdown and heighten fears. The opposition in the Bundestag is demanding clarification

The Vice-President of the Bundestag, Wolfgang Kubicki, went one step further. He compared the behaviour of the government of the long-term CDU president Merkel to that of authoritarian states. "If you scare the population into pushing through political measures, put the axe to our democracy. It is clearly no longer about explaining empowered citizens political decisions based on facts," kubicki said.


https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/1278395 ... -vergroten

During the drafting, the Secretary of State of the Ministry was in close contact with the scientists, including RKI chief Lothar Wieler. In previously secret emails, the secretary of state referred to him as "my friend." After four days, the paper was ready: the scientists warned of one million corona deaths and gave tips on how to achieve the "desired shock effect": "Many seriously ill people are taken to the hospital by their relatives, but turned away, and die agonizingly struggling for air at home."


https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/ ... sitesearch

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland ... r-ein.html

Totally shocking and outrageous how politicians have and are behaving. I would not be surprised to see more of these revelations come to light in the coming months.
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:06 pm

A very strange article with little in the way of evidence.

A reply in the comments section of the welt.de article:

The paper that resulted from this collaboration was "leaked" in April last year (and discussed extensively in the press) and, as far as I know, it was not approved by either the Ministry of Health or Ms. Merkel, much less approved and planned for implementation with regard to individual measures.


At worst this is one minister going off the reservation. At best, it was a govenment wanting all the advice it could get on a worst case situation to know how it should act.

I'm not convinced.


And by the way, the latest lockdown was harsh, is still in place and has worked. As it has done everywhere it's been put in place.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:10 pm

Or Germany could have followed the US' success and killed twice as many people per capita
I don't take responsibility at all
 
NIKV69
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:21 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
A very strange article with little in the way of evidence.



From what I read there seems to be plenty. Not a surprise you have to go doom and gloom to justify the results of the lockdowns to your population. I think the post mortem in a few years about this will be very interesting.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
bennett123
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:25 pm

Perhaps you can post a link.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:31 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
A very strange article with little in the way of evidence.

A reply in the comments section of the welt.de article:

The paper that resulted from this collaboration was "leaked" in April last year (and discussed extensively in the press) and, as far as I know, it was not approved by either the Ministry of Health or Ms. Merkel, much less approved and planned for implementation with regard to individual measures.


At worst this is one minister going off the reservation. At best, it was a govenment wanting all the advice it could get on a worst case situation to know how it should act.

I'm not convinced.


And by the way, the latest lockdown was harsh, is still in place and has worked. As it has done everywhere it's been put in place.


Dang, i just spend 2.99 EUR to buy the ePaper, bombshell report on page 6 is something really new, and the most shocking detail is that the worst case scenario they wanted to explicitly see the worst possible case assumed a 1.2% case mortality. The observed case mortality is 2.73%.

And the thread title is a mile off the mark, no one was ordered to do anything, and apparently some minister panicked a bit, worrying about communication infrastructure collapsing...

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
NIKV69
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:32 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Perhaps you can post a link.


Scroll up to the OP.
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:33 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
A very strange article with little in the way of evidence.



From what I read there seems to be plenty.


Nope, just a few excerpts from emails that do support the Welt am Sonntag headline, but not the Telegraph or this threads headline.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Reinhardt
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:37 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
A very strange article with little in the way of evidence.



From what I read there seems to be plenty. Not a surprise you have to go doom and gloom to justify the results of the lockdowns to your population. I think the post mortem in a few years about this will be very interesting.


No need to justify it the results are clear to see. Infection rate is down to below 100 per 100,000 for most areas of Germany now after this winters lockdown. Healthcare coped, and again we're back to offering out hospital beds and military doctors and nurses to other countries in the EU.

Every country that it was properly implemented in has seen massive reductions in infection rates and lower deaths. The UK took ages to lock down, had completely obscure localised zoned lockdown tiers,only now is just starting to isolate and properly test arriving visitors at airports. It has ministers that decided the rules didn't apply to them so suprise suprise half the population think the rules don't apply to them. The US and the UK have had the most un-coordinated leadership over this, refused to lock down quickly and fast enough and have had the highest death rates in the world because of it.

So Germany nor any other country that tried to at least deal with this properly needs any lectures from anyone in the US thanks very much.
 
GDB
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:55 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
A very strange article with little in the way of evidence.



From what I read there seems to be plenty. Not a surprise you have to go doom and gloom to justify the results of the lockdowns to your population. I think the post mortem in a few years about this will be very interesting.


No need to justify it the results are clear to see. Infection rate is down to below 100 per 100,000 for most areas of Germany now after this winters lockdown. Healthcare coped, and again we're back to offering out hospital beds and military doctors and nurses to other countries in the EU.

Every country that it was properly implemented in has seen massive reductions in infection rates and lower deaths. The UK took ages to lock down, had completely obscure localised zoned lockdown tiers,only now is just starting to isolate and properly test arriving visitors at airports. It has ministers that decided the rules didn't apply to them so suprise suprise half the population think the rules don't apply to them. The US and the UK have had the most un-coordinated leadership over this, refused to lock down quickly and fast enough and have had the highest death rates in the world because of it.

So Germany nor any other country that tried to at least deal with this properly needs any lectures from anyone in the US thanks very much.


Agreed, here in the UK the only thing done well so far is the vaccination program, since it was left to the actual experts, the NHS to do it, after all they do large scale flu jabs every year.
Everything else our government contracted out to their friends/funders, including notorious companies like Capita and Serco who get fat off government work and no matter how badly they screw up, which is usually, they get more. With predictable results that compounded the government's own slowness to respond.
Even Johnson knew with all of his u-turns, bluster, indeed likely internal threats to his leadership, this one they could not risk on contracting out, likely he did the right thing with administering vaccines to, as ever, save his skin.

And this in a nation with a proper public health system, a lot more common sense around the need to self isolate, wear masks etc, compared to the craziness and utter contempt Trump showed about the pandemic.
Presumably the thread starter and his ilk are clutching at this very small straw to justify their own contempt for health workers, the others most vulnerable to this pandemic and of course, as that old GOP bastard admitted a few months back, 'old people have no value' (except him of course). Then of course, the true motivator, greed.
World's greatest nation? In Pandemic body count, certainly.
Which in the end, as measured as per capita, is the only measure that counts.

So maybe less of the lectures from that side of the pond.
 
alfa164
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:07 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Reinhardt wrote:
A very strange article with little in the way of evidence.

From what I read there seems to be plenty. Not a surprise you have to go doom and gloom to justify the results of the lockdowns to your population. I think the post mortem in a few years about this will be very interesting.


It is telling when someone is more interested in a postmortem of the political issues surrounding Covid, than in a postmortem for the almost-500,000 souls who had died from its consequences in the U.S.A. alone.


GDB wrote:
No need to justify it the results are clear to see. Infection rate is down to below 100 per 100,000 for most areas of Germany now after this winters lockdown. Healthcare coped, and again we're back to offering out hospital beds and military doctors and nurses to other countries in the EU. Every country that it was properly implemented in has seen massive reductions in infection rates and lower deaths.


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
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OA412
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:24 pm

MaverickM11 wrote:
Or Germany could have followed the US' success and killed twice as many people per capita

Ding, ding, ding! Pretending it's nothing but a cold has worked oh so well for us, just ask the nearly 500,000 Americans who lost their lives to this "cold."
Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
 
ltbewr
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:29 pm

As I have long suggested, in the upcoming years, we are going to see a massive amount of research and writings about the Covid-19 pandemic. Part of that will be the coordination or lack of between health experts and politicians. Perhaps in Germany, some politicians pushed policies to take a worse case policy than a best case one especially with the unknowns and known info at that point.
 
Okie
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:00 pm

Aw Yes, Brainwashing is more important than washing of hands. :checkmark:

Okie
 
tommy1808
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:16 am

ltbewr wrote:
Perhaps in Germany, some politicians pushed policies to take a worse case policy than a best case one especially with the unknowns and known info at that point.


actually the source article e-mail excerpts are pretty clear that they where tasked to create best, medium and worst case scenarios....

Okie wrote:
Aw Yes, Brainwashing is more important than washing of hands. :checkmark:


so.... asking science institution to provide best/medium and worst case scenarios as basis for possible future planning is now brain washing? Especially when reality turned out more than twice as bad as the worst case scenario?

You do realize the thread title is made up nonsense and a desire to create panic was in no way demanded or expressed? The source article is quite clear that the scenarios where to be used to set up plans that, if push come to shove, would prevent the public from feeling helpless by providing a robust reaction.

I guess telling everyone this is like the flu, their new hoax and will to away all by itself like a miracle wasn´t brainwashing? :mrgreen:

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
WIederling
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:05 am

OA412 wrote:
MaverickM11 wrote:
Or Germany could have followed the US' success and killed twice as many people per capita

Ding, ding, ding! Pretending it's nothing but a cold has worked oh so well for us, just ask the nearly 500,000 Americans who lost their lives to this "cold."


This winter with the help of the FDP, some "Querdenker" and other imbeciles we are trying to close in:

Covid19 death for the whole of 2020 are now less than the victims for 2021 till today.

( we've avoided the second wave that other countries "worked".)
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:23 am

Bombshell? More like "Wet Firecracker" :-)

reminds me: that "skies are falling in Denmark" fake news "thing" from the US.
Are the recipients really that gullible and naive that these things seem to "work" so well.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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c933103
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:47 am

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
There are nothing wrong with making a worst case scenario and make preparation for it accordingly, in fact that's something everyone should be doing, so that they won't be without cards on hand to use when situation do indeed turn such way.
But then, to create panic? Is this how the original message was talking about? Of course it make sense to present a worst case scenario and say actions have to be taken to avoid worst case scenario, but then there are a lines between telling people that and creating panic.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
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tommy1808
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:27 pm

c933103 wrote:
But then, to create panic? .


that has been made up by the TO and nowhere to be found in the source.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Jalap
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:58 pm

Scorpio wrote:
Why is this extremely misleading title allowed to stay up? No-one was 'ordered' to do anything. The title simply isn't true. This is how Fake News is made, and spreads.

Sensationalism sells newspapers.
Newspapers want to sell, so are sensationalist.
Plus I don't see any lies.
Many newspapers nowadays post something like this the one day and the next day "Severe negligence in goverment despite scientific report urging for extreme measures".
Just to make sure they sell their crap to people with any opinion.
 
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c933103
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Re: Bombshell Report (Die Welt): German government ordered scientist to create panic to keep lockdowns going

Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:09 pm

Jalap wrote:
Scorpio wrote:
Why is this extremely misleading title allowed to stay up? No-one was 'ordered' to do anything. The title simply isn't true. This is how Fake News is made, and spreads.

Sensationalism sells newspapers.
Newspapers want to sell, so are sensationalist.
Plus I don't see any lies.
Many newspapers nowadays post something like this the one day and the next day "Severe negligence in goverment despite scientific report urging for extreme measures".
Just to make sure they sell their crap to people with any opinion.

I think the commentor was referring to this thread's title, which wasn't edited when he initially left his comment, but is now edited and neutralized
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: German government considered worst-case scenario as basis for planning

Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:38 pm

Sounds like the same strategy climate hysterics use with their 'climate countdown for the world to end' type. Scientist playing politics, fear and emotion to sway population. Its not new.

Anyone with half a brain was able to see from the go that all of this COVID overreaction was unnecessary and stupid. Within 2 weeks or 3 we could see what was going to happen with this virus. Anyone wanting to keep lock-downs after that it was because they had some sort of hidden agenda. Look how California and New York and Europe are opening up again despite the numbers.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
bennett123
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Re: German government considered worst-case scenario as basis for planning

Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:51 pm

Are you assuming that we would have been in the same place without the lockdowns?.
 
tommy1808
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Re: German government considered worst-case scenario as basis for planning

Fri Feb 12, 2021 1:51 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Sounds like the same strategy climate hysterics use with their 'climate countdown for the world to end' type. .


:checkmark:
Exactly, just like with Climate Change "hysterics", where change largely happens faster than predicted, and prediction hence have to be corrected upwards all the time, the worst case case mortality in the evil, evil politicized study was assumed to be 1.2%, and the observed real word case mortality so far is 2.76%. Even without the overflowing hospitals even, that the worst case study had assumed. Apparently even the most pessimistic experts underestimated Covid by a factor of 3 to 4.

Look how California and New York and Europe are opening up again despite the numbers.


The effect lock-downs have seems to correlate quite nicely with how much people follow the rules. Which means most of the almost half million dead americans have been killed by the "lock-downs and masks don´t work and Covid isn´t worse than a flu" crowd downplaying it like you do.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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c933103
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Re: German government considered worst-case scenario as basis for planning

Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:02 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Sounds like the same strategy climate hysterics use with their 'climate countdown for the world to end' type. .


:checkmark:
Exactly, just like with Climate Change "hysterics", where change largely happens faster than predicted, and prediction hence have to be corrected upwards all the time, the worst case case mortality in the evil, evil politicized study was assumed to be 1.2%, and the observed real word case mortality so far is 2.76%. Even without the overflowing hospitals even, that the worst case study had assumed. Apparently even the most pessimistic experts underestimated Covid by a factor of 3 to 4.

Look how California and New York and Europe are opening up again despite the numbers.


The effect lock-downs have seems to correlate quite nicely with how much people follow the rules. Which means most of the almost half million dead americans have been killed by the "lock-downs and masks don´t work and Covid isn´t worse than a flu" crowd downplaying it like you do.

best regards
Thomas

Why was it assumed to be ~1.2% when, if my memory was correct, figure available last spring pointed to mortality rate closer to 5-10%?
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate 求同存異 よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
Fitting foreign event into local context for lessons will only be able to tell local values instead of foreign ones
You're now at your youngest moment in your remaining life
 
tommy1808
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Re: German government considered worst-case scenario as basis for planning

Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:43 pm

c933103 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Sounds like the same strategy climate hysterics use with their 'climate countdown for the world to end' type. .


:checkmark:
Exactly, just like with Climate Change "hysterics", where change largely happens faster than predicted, and prediction hence have to be corrected upwards all the time, the worst case case mortality in the evil, evil politicized study was assumed to be 1.2%, and the observed real word case mortality so far is 2.76%. Even without the overflowing hospitals even, that the worst case study had assumed. Apparently even the most pessimistic experts underestimated Covid by a factor of 3 to 4.

Look how California and New York and Europe are opening up again despite the numbers.


The effect lock-downs have seems to correlate quite nicely with how much people follow the rules. Which means most of the almost half million dead americans have been killed by the "lock-downs and masks don´t work and Covid isn´t worse than a flu" crowd downplaying it like you do.

best regards
Thomas

Why was it assumed to be ~1.2% when, if my memory was correct, figure available last spring pointed to mortality rate closer to 5-10%?


At that time there was little hard data available, mostly since this was before testing had spooled up and the number of cases was mostly guess work.

The RKI even assumed just 0.56% as worst case scenario at that time.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
marcelh
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Re: German government considered worst-case scenario as basis for planning

Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:44 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Sounds like the same strategy climate hysterics use with their 'climate countdown for the world to end' type. Scientist playing politics, fear and emotion to sway population. Its not new.

Anyone with half a brain was able to see from the go that all of this COVID overreaction was unnecessary and stupid. Within 2 weeks or 3 we could see what was going to happen with this virus. Anyone wanting to keep lock-downs after that it was because they had some sort of hidden agenda. Look how California and New York and Europe are opening up again despite the numbers.

You should stop smoking that stuff you do.....
 
Toenga
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Re: German government considered worst-case scenario as basis for planning

Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:21 pm

New Zealand scientists "had to justify lockdown" by indicating that failure to mitigate could result in upwards of 50000 deaths. It certainly did increase anxiety enough to persuade our government to place the entire country into a lockdown virtually unmatched in severity anywhere else in the world. This lockdown was for four and a half weeks eased to a more relaxed lockdown for a further two and a half weeks. These were the last lockdowns most of the country has had, although Auckland had a further two weeks of the softer lockdown in August. For the vast majority of the time we have endured being restriction free apart from mandatory masks on Auckland public transport.
And just 25 people have died in 5million population. Excess deaths actually declined last year by about 1000.
We are free to leave NZ but must book a 14 day space in managed isolation upon our return, and now pay for it.
Last count 110, 000 people had been through managed isolation since late March, so about 2% of the population. So we are not completly cut off from the rest of the world. Managed isolation is catching about 15 travellers a week, with recent arrivals bringing the UK and South African variants. There has been about 8 cases of transmission out of border facilities but all have been contained so far with efficient track, and trace. There was also the one unexplained, and initially undetected outbreak in August that caused the Auckland lockdown and three deaths.
We did miss out on our expected economic growth for the year, economically ending up only minimally behind last years figures.
Vaccinations of border and managed isolation staff and their families commences using the Pfizer vaccine commence Feb 20th
We are not out of the wood yet, but are presently in a good place and in good health.
How things gowing in your part of the world Dieuwer?
 
bennett123
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Re: German government considered worst-case scenario as basis for planning

Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:05 pm

Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

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