So this week the numbers are looking very strong for the recall effort against Governor Newsom - 1.5 million petitioners are required to trigger a recall election, and there are 1.9m collected with a deadline of March 17th to go. A recall election could happen as soon as late April.

https://deadline.com/2021/03/newsom-rec ... 234706295/

I’m of two minds - lots of question marks on who would replace him. There are three leading GOP hopefuls and a whole host of Dem possibilities. On the whole, I think a recall will be messy and disruptive.

On the other hand, Newsom has earned losing his job for the same reason Trump did: utter failure to manage COVID. The county colored-tier system has been an abject failure, and the premature reopenings last spring caused the summer spike against the advice of health experts. The winter holidays were a mess, with many especially in SoCal inclined to ignore guidelines because they were already irritated by the county tiered shutdown system. The buck stops at the governor for inconsistent messaging and being too quick to cave to restaurant industry pressure due to his close ties.

Yeah, Newsom has definitely earned this. He just wavered and followed political winds instead of establishing clear policies and processes for how to handle the crisis. And then worse himself did not follow his own rules.

I will be curious to see what happens out of this. I do suspect he will in fact be recalled, he has created enough discontent to cause that. The question will be who replaces him. I honestly hope for a Republican like Faulkner but of course to a lot of Republican's he is "soft" not "trumpy" enough. Some want some firebrand moron more like trump but I absolutely prefer what I call "Californian Republican's" ones that are willing to work across the aisle (because they have to to get anything done in a majority Dem state). I don't care what the national party wants, the Republicans in California have to work with what they have and that means a lot of compromise to avoid being shut out (as they are now). Similar to Dems in Republican majority states, it is the ability to match what the people are willing to support and what can be gotten through the state legislature. Moronic and firebomb statements like Trump and downstream pols that echo him make do not convince me nor gain my support. Talk and work, and get things done for the entire population, not just "your supporters".

Anyway, to sum up, I think Newsom is done and earned it. Who will replace him is wide open.

Tugg

How many of those 1.9million are Democrats and how many are Republicans?
Also...bungling oaf that he is, it's not like the last time California recalled it's governor that worked out so well.

I am not a huge Newsom fan, but I won't vote for a Republican anything right now, not after January, not after Trump. I may return a blank ballot if there isn't another democrat on it.

But I agree, he stuffed this one up badly. The party at French Laundry was an especially distasteful move.

I'm not a Newsom fan - always seemed like too much of an ambitious ladder climber, and going to that restaurant demonstrated a profound lack not just of political instincts, but of empathy with his constituents. But I'm also pretty cool to the idea of recalling him. I just question how much of the idea is based on an honest assessment of his failings, and how much is yelping by the same hyper-political crowd that suddenly decided a few small measures of consideration for their fellow man were an egregious attack on freedom back in May. He made mistakes, but most of them seem to have been mistakes in the execution of his elected obligations, rather than self-dealing or bad faith.

The recall is led by a Republican and from what I can see what is argued is that everything should be open Florida style, not that Gavin was too quick to reopen !

It’s worth mentioning that this is the 6th attempt to recall Gavin Newsom since he took office. In that time there have also been failed recall attempts against the Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General (twice), Secretary of State, State Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner, State Controller, and State Senator for the 6th district (twice). The only reasons this one seems likely to reach the threshold for reaching the ballot is Republican anger over masks and closures, and maybe a few voters disgusted at the party at French Laundry.

Two recent polls put his approval rating at 46 and 52 percent. When asked about the recall 45 percent said they’d vote against removal, 36 percent for removal, and 19 percent undecided. He’s not out of trouble, but as of now is in a relatively strong position to defeat the recall effort.

https://www.politico.com/states/califor ... ia-1361562

For comparison Gray Davis had a 24 percent approval rating when he was recalled in 2003 by a 55-45 margin.

Yes, Newsom is working hard to find someway to justifiably change the "color system" he established last year for reopening. Of course the problem is it wasn't very reasonable and he has enforced it (of course) so to suddenly toss it will bring its own set of questions and accusations.

Tugg

Aaron747 wrote:

So this week the numbers are looking very strong for the recall effort against Governor Newsom - 1.5 million petitioners are required to trigger a recall election, and there are 1.9m collected with a deadline of March 17th to go. A recall election could happen as soon as late April.

So to my understanding the ballot will have two questions. First, a yes/no question concerning whether or not Newsom should be recalled, and then the second asking who would replace the governor if the majority vote to recall him. Interestingly there’s no limit on the number of candidates who can run to replace Newsom and whoever gets the most votes wins — even without a majority. Wisconsin's recall rules are a little different. The number of signatures required to trigger a recall election is one-quarter of the votes cast in the previous election and then the incumbent is on the ballot against the opposition party candidate(s). There are primaries preceding the actual recall election. By the way, there have been three gubernatorial recalls in US history and the one in Wisconsin in 2012 was the only time the incumbent survived.

DocLightning wrote:

I am not a huge Newsom fan, but I won't vote for a Republican anything right now, not after January, not after Trump. I may return a blank ballot if there isn't another democrat on it.

But I agree, he stuffed this one up badly. The party at French Laundry was an especially distasteful move.

If I lived in CA I would give Faulconer 4 years and see what happens. It's this partisan thinking that has CA in the mess it is now.

I know a lot of people on the right in California are salivating at the chance to take down Newsom, and it looks like there will be a recall effort, however Newsom I think is in a better place than Davis was for many reasons.

1. California in general is a lot more blue now that it was then.
2. The California Budget was in terrible shape under Davis. Despite Covid, the state is still running a surplus under Newsom.
3. I am not sure you are going to have the free for all clown show that you had last time. Gary Coleman, Arianna Huffington, Arnold Schwarzeneger, and Cruz Bustamonte were all on the ballot and the debate was a freak show. Huffington didn't even try to make a case, she just wanted to attack Arnold the whole time.
4. Related to the last point, Schwarzenger was a strong GOP candidate with a lot of name recognition, and I don't see anyone on the GOP bench in California who would come close. Certainly Devin Nunes and Kevin McCarthy would never win statewide. Maybe you would need one of the Asian reps from Orange County to have a chance.

I don't see this succeeding unless the Democrats have a strong plan B on the other ballot for a replacement. Hard to see who that would be. Xavier Becerra would make the most sense, but if he is confirmed at HHS I don't see him giving up that gig to run a race that I am sure the Dems are going to oppose anyways since it would give credibility to the recall. I am not sure who else in the state I can think of.

Newsom is not a great governor. I don't think the failure to manage covid needs to be placed squarely on his shoulders, though. I see the same thing in Washington state and here in Oregon where small groups of MAGAs are screaming and demanding governors of those respective states resign because freedom and open up. No other reason, really. Yes, covid could have been handled better, especially if there had been solid leadership from the feds. But, instead, states were left to fend for themselves and shunned if they were not in lock step with MAGAs. If he mismanaged state funds or something, I could support a recall but for working within a broken system, I don't think there is much of a reason. I think these recalls are simply people wanting change and wanting to wish the covid away.

seb146 wrote:

Newsom is not a great governor. I don't think the failure to manage covid needs to be placed squarely on his shoulders, though. I see the same thing in Washington state and here in Oregon where small groups of MAGAs are screaming and demanding governors of those respective states resign because freedom and open up. No other reason, really. Yes, covid could have been handled better, especially if there had been solid leadership from the feds. But, instead, states were left to fend for themselves and shunned if they were not in lock step with MAGAs. If he mismanaged state funds or something, I could support a recall but for working within a broken system, I don't think there is much of a reason. I think these recalls are simply people wanting change and wanting to wish the covid away.

CA is a state of nearly 40 million, the size of many countries. There were multiple tools available to Newsom to manage the crisis but instead he put the whole thing on counties to manage and then went and reopened too fast, furthering their burden. It’s a management failure through and through.

NIKV69 wrote:

DocLightning wrote:

I am not a huge Newsom fan, but I won't vote for a Republican anything right now, not after January, not after Trump. I may return a blank ballot if there isn't another democrat on it.

But I agree, he stuffed this one up badly. The party at French Laundry was an especially distasteful move.

If I lived in CA I would give Faulconer 4 years and see what happens. It's this partisan thinking that has CA in the mess it is now.

Partisan-anything isn’t the problem, it’s leadership failure. Republican governors have fucked up big time in this state too - if your memory goes back far enough, recall Wilson’s handling of the first few days of the LA riots.

Aaron747 wrote:

seb146 wrote:

Newsom is not a great governor. I don't think the failure to manage covid needs to be placed squarely on his shoulders, though. I see the same thing in Washington state and here in Oregon where small groups of MAGAs are screaming and demanding governors of those respective states resign because freedom and open up. No other reason, really. Yes, covid could have been handled better, especially if there had been solid leadership from the feds. But, instead, states were left to fend for themselves and shunned if they were not in lock step with MAGAs. If he mismanaged state funds or something, I could support a recall but for working within a broken system, I don't think there is much of a reason. I think these recalls are simply people wanting change and wanting to wish the covid away.

CA is a state of nearly 40 million, the size of many countries. There were multiple tools available to Newsom to manage the crisis but instead he put the whole thing on counties to manage and then went and reopened too fast, furthering their burden. It’s a management failure through and through.

Gov. Inslee (WA) and Gov. Brown (OR) did something similar. They let they counties be in control but when things go out of control, they stepped in. And they are being challenged as well. None of this was handled well. Especially with all of the disinformation out there that people believed instead of listening to health experts. Both governors set a "here is the minimum guidelines" but not law and people still complain it is forced law. Yes, Gov. Newsom could have done more and could have worked harder. But I don't think he should be recalled. He should be called out for not doing enough and that should be pointed out both in Sacramento and at the ballot box.

I don't know about Washington, but Oregon allowed the two largest Native Nations to lead themselves. They are doing a pretty good job.

seb146 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

seb146 wrote:

Newsom is not a great governor. I don't think the failure to manage covid needs to be placed squarely on his shoulders, though. I see the same thing in Washington state and here in Oregon where small groups of MAGAs are screaming and demanding governors of those respective states resign because freedom and open up. No other reason, really. Yes, covid could have been handled better, especially if there had been solid leadership from the feds. But, instead, states were left to fend for themselves and shunned if they were not in lock step with MAGAs. If he mismanaged state funds or something, I could support a recall but for working within a broken system, I don't think there is much of a reason. I think these recalls are simply people wanting change and wanting to wish the covid away.

CA is a state of nearly 40 million, the size of many countries. There were multiple tools available to Newsom to manage the crisis but instead he put the whole thing on counties to manage and then went and reopened too fast, furthering their burden. It’s a management failure through and through.

Gov. Inslee (WA) and Gov. Brown (OR) did something similar. They let they counties be in control but when things go out of control, they stepped in. And they are being challenged as well. None of this was handled well. Especially with all of the disinformation out there that people believed instead of listening to health experts. Both governors set a "here is the minimum guidelines" but not law and people still complain it is forced law. Yes, Gov. Newsom could have done more and could have worked harder. But I don't think he should be recalled. He should be called out for not doing enough and that should be pointed out both in Sacramento and at the ballot box.

I don't know about Washington, but Oregon allowed the two largest Native Nations to lead themselves. They are doing a pretty good job.

Did Governors Inslee and Brown dine with restaurant industry representatives at five-star restaurants during stay at home orders?

Gov. Newsom is getting it from all sides and in a bad situation. Part of it is his own arrogance like the infamous restaurant visit last year. He has become a target for all going wrong including either too strict or too loose with Covid-19 public health controls, business owners despite to get back to being open before they lose it all, high taxes, immigration, unemployment, growing homelessness and PC stuff like renaming schools in San Francisco. I don't know if a Republican will be any better, and likely make things worse for many so better to keep with Newsom as the devil you know than the devil you don't.

Aaron747 wrote:

seb146 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

CA is a state of nearly 40 million, the size of many countries. There were multiple tools available to Newsom to manage the crisis but instead he put the whole thing on counties to manage and then went and reopened too fast, furthering their burden. It’s a management failure through and through.

Gov. Inslee (WA) and Gov. Brown (OR) did something similar. They let they counties be in control but when things go out of control, they stepped in. And they are being challenged as well. None of this was handled well. Especially with all of the disinformation out there that people believed instead of listening to health experts. Both governors set a "here is the minimum guidelines" but not law and people still complain it is forced law. Yes, Gov. Newsom could have done more and could have worked harder. But I don't think he should be recalled. He should be called out for not doing enough and that should be pointed out both in Sacramento and at the ballot box.

I don't know about Washington, but Oregon allowed the two largest Native Nations to lead themselves. They are doing a pretty good job.

Did Governors Inslee and Brown dine with restaurant industry representatives at five-star restaurants during stay at home orders?

There are no five star restaurants here but I know what you are saying. Valid point. Still no reason to recall Newsom.

Imagine if recall votes had 2 outcomes : recall wins, elected official is removed, or recall loses, elected official gets 4 more years in office. That would get interesting.

Newsom will face a recall election.

https://ktla.com/news/california/gov-ne ... -gathered/

NIKV69 wrote:

Newsom will face a recall election.

https://ktla.com/news/california/gov-ne ... -gathered/

The biggest chance for success is to remind voters of the specific failures of the county by county ‘reopening system.’ The state is not going to elect a GOP rando on a lark, and memories of 2020 are fading now with the success of the vaccination efforts in the state.

seb146 wrote:

Newsom is not a great governor. I don't think the failure to manage covid needs to be placed squarely on his shoulders, though. I see the same thing in Washington state and here in Oregon where small groups of MAGAs are screaming and demanding governors of those respective states resign because freedom and open up. No other reason, really. Yes, covid could have been handled better, especially if there had been solid leadership from the feds. But, instead, states were left to fend for themselves and shunned if they were not in lock step with MAGAs. If he mismanaged state funds or something, I could support a recall but for working within a broken system, I don't think there is much of a reason. I think these recalls are simply people wanting change and wanting to wish the covid away.

Washington and Oregon are some of the best managed states in terms of both the death rate, and the economic performance. The Pacific Northwest leaders should be lauded for their performance, not frickin Desantis who is average at best in terms of death rate and below average economic performance.

Aaron747 wrote:

NIKV69 wrote:

Newsom will face a recall election.

https://ktla.com/news/california/gov-ne ... -gathered/

The biggest chance for success is to remind voters of the specific failures of the county by county ‘reopening system.’ The state is not going to elect a GOP rando on a lark, and memories of 2020 are fading now with the success of the vaccination efforts in the state.

...especially if the alternative is Caitlyn Jenner

The one time the GOP has a chance, they put up Caitlyn Jenner

Wait to go Cal GOP

stl07 wrote:

The one time the GOP has a chance, they put up Caitlyn Jenner

Wait to go Cal GOP

Goofy, yes. But in fairness, CA voters are only about 30% irrelevant. The rest are Democratic.

It is not likely anything will change here.

stl07 wrote:

The one time the GOP has a chance, they put up Caitlyn Jenner

Wait to go Cal GOP

Did you miss the story of Kevin Faulconer running?

I think we've reached the point in CA where it almost doesn't matter who the Governor is. The institutional rot, the corruption, the entrenched leftism in the state legislature and courts is close to irreversible. Recall him, change your underwear, then CA keeps doing the same stupid shit that got them into the same messes over and over and over again.

Groundhog Day in CA. But it'll be entertaining.

slider wrote:

I think we've reached the point in CA where it almost doesn't matter who the Governor is. The institutional rot, the corruption, the entrenched leftism in the state legislature and courts is close to irreversible. Recall him, change your underwear, then CA keeps doing the same stupid shit that got them into the same messes over and over and over again.

Groundhog Day in CA. But it'll be entertaining.

How quaint. Funny, mature adults here in CA don't go around finding the struggles of other states 'entertaining' or wishing for their continued failure. Thanks for the division.

slider wrote:

I think we've reached the point in CA where it almost doesn't matter who the Governor is. The institutional rot, the corruption, the entrenched leftism in the state legislature and courts is close to irreversible. Recall him, change your underwear, then CA keeps doing the same stupid shit that got them into the same messes over and over and over again.

Groundhog Day in CA. But it'll be entertaining.

Instead of griping about "entrenched leftism," Republicans would do better to ask how they dealt themselves out of the game in CA politics to begin with. It wasn't long ago that Republicans were perfectly competitive here.

Is Caitlyn Jenner still republican ? I thought she had gotten the memo that republicans literally hate her for what she is ?

The only reason she's running/talking about running is for attention aka money, there is no plan to win, a bit like Trump, but with less chance of the same outcome.

NIKV69 wrote:

stl07 wrote:

The one time the GOP has a chance, they put up Caitlyn Jenner

Wait to go Cal GOP

Did you miss the story of Kevin Faulconer running?

Yes, I did!
Good to hear

slider wrote:

I think we've reached the point in CA where it almost doesn't matter who the Governor is. The institutional rot, the corruption, the entrenched leftism in the state legislature and courts is close to irreversible. Recall him, change your underwear, then CA keeps doing the same stupid shit that got them into the same messes over and over and over again.

Groundhog Day in CA. But it'll be entertaining.

Still the entertainment, tech, and agriculture capital of the country if not the world paying the most federal taxes of any state but gotta keep that trope going.... Can't beat the exquisitely well run conservative paradise of the bible belt welfare queen states

Aesma wrote:

Is Caitlyn Jenner still republican ? I thought she had gotten the memo that republicans literally hate her for what she is ?

The only reason she's running/talking about running is for attention aka money, there is no plan to win, a bit like Trump, but with less chance of the same outcome.

She seems to have no clue how anything works and anyone that points that out is "condescending". Knowledge is soshulizm.

Aaron747 wrote:

slider wrote:

I think we've reached the point in CA where it almost doesn't matter who the Governor is. The institutional rot, the corruption, the entrenched leftism in the state legislature and courts is close to irreversible. Recall him, change your underwear, then CA keeps doing the same stupid shit that got them into the same messes over and over and over again.

Groundhog Day in CA. But it'll be entertaining.

How quaint. Funny, mature adults here in CA don't go around finding the struggles of other states 'entertaining' or wishing for their continued failure. Thanks for the division.

Oh I want CA to be great. Stay great. Stay prosperous. But the reality of things is really quite different unless there is a course correction. That's the hard, cold truth.

slider wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

slider wrote:

I think we've reached the point in CA where it almost doesn't matter who the Governor is. The institutional rot, the corruption, the entrenched leftism in the state legislature and courts is close to irreversible. Recall him, change your underwear, then CA keeps doing the same stupid shit that got them into the same messes over and over and over again.

Groundhog Day in CA. But it'll be entertaining.

How quaint. Funny, mature adults here in CA don't go around finding the struggles of other states 'entertaining' or wishing for their continued failure. Thanks for the division.

Oh I want CA to be great. Stay great. Stay prosperous. But the reality of things is really quite different unless there is a course correction. That's the hard, cold truth.

So you want California to STAY great and STAY prosperous but you want everything flipped? How do you think California got there in the first place?

I think this push to recall Newsom is a right wing backlash. They can not win an election, so they have to remove him from office just so Republicans can take a victory lap. He will be replaced with a Democrat. Then what? Another recall effort by Republicans so they can take a victory lap. And rinse and repeat.

seb146 wrote:

slider wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

How quaint. Funny, mature adults here in CA don't go around finding the struggles of other states 'entertaining' or wishing for their continued failure. Thanks for the division.

Oh I want CA to be great. Stay great. Stay prosperous. But the reality of things is really quite different unless there is a course correction. That's the hard, cold truth.

So you want California to STAY great and STAY prosperous but you want everything flipped? How do you think California got there in the first place?

I think this push to recall Newsom is a right wing backlash. They can not win an election, so they have to remove him from office just so Republicans can take a victory lap. He will be replaced with a Democrat. Then what? Another recall effort by Republicans so they can take a victory lap. And rinse and repeat.

The most conservative policies imaginable wouldn't make California cheap or stop the relocation trends to places with cheap, undeveloped land. The facts are that California has more people than the geography is able to handle (particularly in Southern California--20 million people should not be living in an area where water has to be brought in from elsewhere), and has been built out about as much as possible, which more than any liberal policy impacts housing costs. Housing regulations are also impacted by municipalities being reluctant to permit residential housing due to a 1978 law that LIMITS the amount the state can tax residents.

luckyone wrote:

seb146 wrote:

slider wrote:

Oh I want CA to be great. Stay great. Stay prosperous. But the reality of things is really quite different unless there is a course correction. That's the hard, cold truth.

So you want California to STAY great and STAY prosperous but you want everything flipped? How do you think California got there in the first place?

I think this push to recall Newsom is a right wing backlash. They can not win an election, so they have to remove him from office just so Republicans can take a victory lap. He will be replaced with a Democrat. Then what? Another recall effort by Republicans so they can take a victory lap. And rinse and repeat.

The most conservative policies imaginable wouldn't make California cheap or stop the relocation trends to places with cheap, undeveloped land. The facts are that California has more people than the geography is able to handle (particularly in Southern California--20 million people should not be living in an area where water has to be brought in from elsewhere), and has been built out about as much as possible, which more than any liberal policy impacts housing costs. Housing regulations are also impacted by municipalities being reluctant to permit residential housing due to a 1978 law that LIMITS the amount the state can tax residents.

Prop 13, which limits taxes, was proposed by and supported by Republicans. It was passed with bipartisan support. Fred Eaton along with William Mulholland diverted water from the Sierra to Los Angeles. Eaton was Republican.

Stop blaming everything on "liberals" and Democrats.

seb146 wrote:

Prop 13, which limits taxes, was proposed by and supported by Republicans. It was passed with bipartisan support. Fred Eaton along with William Mulholland diverted water from the Sierra to Los Angeles. Eaton was Republican.

Stop blaming everything on "liberals" and Democrats.

You forget that to pass it had to be voted on by the people in the election?

seb146 wrote:

luckyone wrote:

seb146 wrote:

So you want California to STAY great and STAY prosperous but you want everything flipped? How do you think California got there in the first place?

I think this push to recall Newsom is a right wing backlash. They can not win an election, so they have to remove him from office just so Republicans can take a victory lap. He will be replaced with a Democrat. Then what? Another recall effort by Republicans so they can take a victory lap. And rinse and repeat.

The most conservative policies imaginable wouldn't make California cheap or stop the relocation trends to places with cheap, undeveloped land. The facts are that California has more people than the geography is able to handle (particularly in Southern California--20 million people should not be living in an area where water has to be brought in from elsewhere), and has been built out about as much as possible, which more than any liberal policy impacts housing costs. Housing regulations are also impacted by municipalities being reluctant to permit residential housing due to a 1978 law that LIMITS the amount the state can tax residents.

Prop 13, which limits taxes, was proposed by and supported by Republicans. It was passed with bipartisan support. Fred Eaton along with William Mulholland diverted water from the Sierra to Los Angeles. Eaton was Republican.

Stop blaming everything on "liberals" and Democrats.

I wasn't blaming anything on anybody, just stating facts and pointing out that policies that conservatives typically like (like friendly tax policies) can have consequences as well. California is just as much of an example of market principles at work as Texas. Perhaps it would have been more clear if I had also put "liberal" in quotes.

Prop 13 epitomizes the law of unintended consequences with government. That's hardly a partisan dynamic, as much as Seb zealously always parrots that position.

slider wrote:

Prop 13 epitomizes the law of unintended consequences with government. That's hardly a partisan dynamic, as much as Seb zealously always parrots that position.

I'm just saying that Prop 13 had broad, bipartisan support and, now, Democrats are working within the letter of the law while Republicans are blaming "liberals" instead of doing something like introducing another bipartisan bill to change things. They do have that right and, frankly, that duty. Fix things they believe are broken instead of blaming others.